I doubt if Conservative support is as high as 45%, but there seems little doubt that the Brexit vote has turned out very well for the Conservatives, and has left them united (and Labour divided).
Had the result been 52-48% Remain, I think there would have been far more infighting in Conservative ranks.
Yep, all in all, things have worked out very nice for Team Con. I mean they've even managed to get rid of Osborne.
All they need now is for Jezza to be "cemented" in place and then find an excuse to have a general election...
Mo Farah successfully negotiates the heat of the 5,000m. Yes, they have to run that distance twice to get a medal!
Seems very silly, especially when you see a number get lapped rather quickly when the elite athletes aren't even going full whack. Why not do what they do in some other events, where you have a prelim round and the top 10-15 don't participate. That is what they do in the 100m.
Didn't know about the prelim rounds, did they do them last week when no-one was looking? For the 5k maybe introduce two qualifying standards, say 13' and 14' with those who've run the faster time this year not having to run the heat.
Mo Farah successfully negotiates the heat of the 5,000m. Yes, they have to run that distance twice to get a medal!
Seems very silly, especially when you see a number get lapped rather quickly when the elite athletes aren't even going full whack. Why not do what they do in some other events, where you have a prelim round and the top 10-15 don't participate. That is what they do in the 100m.
Didn't know about the prelim rounds, did they do them last week when no-one was looking? For the 5k maybe introduce two qualifying standards, say 13' and 14' with those who've run the faster time this year not having to run the heat.
They did prelims for 100m yes. Bolt and co only had to run 3 times in total.
"The ONS said it was 95% confident that the change in the unemployment total for April-to-June is somewhere between a rise of 25,000 and a fall of 129,000."
er, that's a bit of a range, whats the point of the guesstimate if the range is that big?
All things considered, surely the most remarkable thing about Theresa May's 68% net satisfaction lead over Corbyn is that it's not larger.
You and Mr Meeks and the other PB Remainers must be bitterly disappointed by the unemployment figures today. My sympathies
dick
Actually, to be fair, my remark was mainly aimed at Meeks. But I can't have a direct go at him cause he's got that horrible personal stuff going on. Feels wrong.
But the bigger point is true. Since the vote some REMAINERS have come close to relishing bad news on the economy. Or at least giving the impression that they relish bad news.
It's not a good look. They should stop. Now.
So, for the sake of argument, if the economy does badly as a result of Brexit those of us that said it might have to keep quiet? That would also mean that if Labour got elected at some stage, then those who said the economy wouldn't thrive under Labour would also have to be quiet. I think that the guy who wrote 'dick' had it about right.
Anybody who argues that Brexit would have any negative effects at all is a Europhile Federast Nazi Soviet TRAITOR. Freedom for Britain.
Just reading some overseas press about their Olympic failures vs Team GB success. A lot of bitterness but also a lot of respect to the funding model and the absolute concentration on only putting forwards realistic medal prospects. Australians and Germans in particular seem annoyed that so much money is being wasted on athletes who are there to simply make up the numbers and have no realistic chance of winning a medal.
Australia in particular may move to an eight year cycle with four yearly performance reviews which is the same as here. The funding is what matters for them, they spend AUD 370m on their four year programme vs £300m for ours and we have significantly more success than they do. Additionally their programme is funded out of general taxation rather than lottery funding which is earmarked for arts and sports already. There is a lot of anger that the government is funding athletes who failed to perform in 2012 and then failed again just now, their cycling and rowing teams are under huge scrutiny right now.
The UK Sport funding system has got to be the single most successful sports management change in the world. The hate and respect it generates in equal measure is unbelievable sometimes.
Athletics seems to be one the where we seem to be funding some duffers for longer than we really should. For example, not to be overly harsh on the two girls in the 5000m, but both are basically buggered. One can't train properly (and never will ever again) and instead has to work out on a cross trainer and the other has a serious foot injury that limits her abilities.
When you compare that to the cycling were allegedly having a fat bum or shaving the wrong bits of your body gets you chucked off the team.
Mo Farah successfully negotiates the heat of the 5,000m. Yes, they have to run that distance twice to get a medal!
Seems very silly, especially when you see a number get lapped rather quickly when the elite athletes aren't even going full whack. Why not do what they do in some other events, where you have a prelim round and the top 10-15 don't participate. That is what they do in the 100m.
Didn't know about the prelim rounds, did they do them last week when no-one was looking? For the 5k maybe introduce two qualifying standards, say 13' and 14' with those who've run the faster time this year not having to run the heat.
They did prelims for 100m yes. Bolt and co only had to run 3 times in total.
Indeed so, they did them first thing in the morning on the same day as round 1.
All things considered, surely the most remarkable thing about Theresa May's 68% net satisfaction lead over Corbyn is that it's not larger.
You and Mr Meeks and the other PB Remainers must be bitterly disappointed by the unemployment figures today. My sympathies
dick
Actually, to be fair, my remark was mainly aimed at Meeks. But I can't have a direct go at him cause he's got that horrible personal stuff going on. Feels wrong.
But the bigger point is true. Since the vote some REMAINERS have come close to relishing bad news on the economy. Or at least giving the impression that they relish bad news.
It's not a good look. They should stop. Now.
It's a sentiment based downturn. The real economy has kept on moving. 0.2-0.3% growth in Q3 (the Brexit quarter) is my estimate vs -0.2% from our (90% remain voting) forecasting team. I wonder whether I'll be closer.
You'll be closer, if only for the tourism figures boosted by the weakened pound.
Can't see whether the Olympics represent a boost or a hindrance to the economy, I know I've done less work than usual for the past fortnight!
Possibly, I also think the downturn in services won't be as bad and manufacturing will pick up in September. If I had to break it down I think -0.1, 0.1, 0.2 for the three months in the quarter.
As one of the grim-dark Brexiteers, I dislike the triumphalism as much as the condescension. Its 55 days after EUref and the UK is one of the largest economies in the world. It doesn't just turn on a sixpence.
We have to give some credence to the forecasts, the bulk of which agree a shortfall of ~2-2.5% growth by end of 2017, a rise of 250k in unemployment and inflation somewhere between 2-3%. I'm not so bothered about the shortfall, simply because I felt the OBR's forecast was ludicrously optimistic, but there is definitely hardship ahead.
As ever, it won't be the apocalypse, but it won't be Leadsom's sunlit uplands either.
Mo Farah successfully negotiates the heat of the 5,000m. Yes, they have to run that distance twice to get a medal!
Seems very silly, especially when you see a number get lapped rather quickly when the elite athletes aren't even going full whack. Why not do what they do in some other events, where you have a prelim round and the top 10-15 don't participate. That is what they do in the 100m.
Didn't know about the prelim rounds, did they do them last week when no-one was looking? For the 5k maybe introduce two qualifying standards, say 13' and 14' with those who've run the faster time this year not having to run the heat.
They did prelims for 100m yes. Bolt and co only had to run 3 times in total.
Indeed so, they did them first thing in the morning on the same day as round 1.
All things considered, surely the most remarkable thing about Theresa May's 68% net satisfaction lead over Corbyn is that it's not larger.
You and Mr Meeks and the other PB Remainers must be bitterly disappointed by the unemployment figures today. My sympathies
dick
Actually, to be fair, my remark was mainly aimed at Meeks. But I can't have a direct go at him cause he's got that horrible personal stuff going on. Feels wrong.
But the bigger point is true. Since the vote some REMAINERS have come close to relishing bad news on the economy. Or at least giving the impression that they relish bad news.
It's not a good look. They should stop. Now.
So, for the sake of argument, if the economy does badly as a result of Brexit those of us that said it might have to keep quiet? That would also mean that if Labour got elected at some stage, then those who said the economy wouldn't thrive under Labour would also have to be quiet. I think that the guy who wrote 'dick' had it about right.
Anybody who argues that Brexit would have any negative effects at all is a Europhile Federast Nazi Soviet TRAITOR. Freedom for Britain.
"The ONS said it was 95% confident that the change in the unemployment total for April-to-June is somewhere between a rise of 25,000 and a fall of 129,000."
er, that's a bit of a range, whats the point of the guesstimate if the range is that big?
"Labour's vote share at GE2020 will be somewhere between 0% and 35%"
Just reading some overseas press about their Olympic failures vs Team GB success. A lot of bitterness but also a lot of respect to the funding model and the absolute concentration on only putting forwards realistic medal prospects. Australians and Germans in particular seem annoyed that so much money is being wasted on athletes who are there to simply make up the numbers and have no realistic chance of winning a medal.
Australia in particular may move to an eight year cycle with four yearly performance reviews which is the same as here. The funding is what matters for them, they spend AUD 370m on their four year programme vs £300m for ours and we have significantly more success than they do. Additionally their programme is funded out of general taxation rather than lottery funding which is earmarked for arts and sports already. There is a lot of anger that the government is funding athletes who failed to perform in 2012 and then failed again just now, their cycling and rowing teams are under huge scrutiny right now.
The UK Sport funding system has got to be the single most successful sports management change in the world. The hate and respect it generates in equal measure is unbelievable sometimes.
Athletics seems to be one the where we seem to be funding some duffers for longer than we really should. For example, not to be overly harsh on the two girls in the 5000m, but both are basically buggered. One can't train properly (and never will ever again) and instead has to work out on a cross trainer and the other has a serious foot injury that limits her abilities.
When you compare that to the cycling were allegedly having a fat bum or shaving the wrong bits of your body gets you chucked off the team.
In the athletics events we can enter two or three people for each event, provided they make the (usually quite easy) qualifying time, so no harm gained by sending the fastest two or three we can find for the experience.
I don't think those two 5000m girls are getting millions in funding and coaching like the cycling team though, or the likes of KJT - who was picked out early as a medal hope and given the same treatment as Ennis was a few years earlier.
The Mori poll figures would imply a Tory majority of 48 assuming a uniform swing . 15 gains from Labour - 2 from LibDems - 1 from SNP.
Labour would be sub 30% in reality though...
Possibly - but the Tories would be unlikely to be above 40%.
What makes you think that?
ICM has them at 40% - YouGov at 38% TNS has them at 39% YouGov also has Labour at 31%. I am not inclined to particularly question a Tory lead of 11% - but the party shares look odd. The sheer volatility of the Mori figures stretches credulity - LibDem dropping from 11% to 7% compared with a month ago. Seems unlikely to say the least.
I don't know where those figures come from. An 11% Con lead represents a swing from Lab to Con of 2.2% compared with May 2015 which would cost Labour 15 seats - without allowing for any incumbency bonus for those MPs first elected last year.
Presumably an element of forecasting rather than nowcasting.
Just reading some overseas press about their Olympic failures vs Team GB success. A lot of bitterness but also a lot of respect to the funding model and the absolute concentration on only putting forwards realistic medal prospects. Australians and Germans in particular seem annoyed that so much money is being wasted on athletes who are there to simply make up the numbers and have no realistic chance of winning a medal.
Australia in particular may move to an eight year cycle with four yearly performance reviews which is the same as here. The funding is what matters for them, they spend AUD 370m on their four year programme vs £300m for ours and we have significantly more success than they do. Additionally their programme is funded out of general taxation rather than lottery funding which is earmarked for arts and sports already. There is a lot of anger that the government is funding athletes who failed to perform in 2012 and then failed again just now, their cycling and rowing teams are under huge scrutiny right now.
The UK Sport funding system has got to be the single most successful sports management change in the world. The hate and respect it generates in equal measure is unbelievable sometimes.
Athletics seems to be one the where we seem to be funding some duffers for longer than we really should. For example, not to be overly harsh on the two girls in the 5000m, but both are basically buggered. One can't train properly (and never will ever again) and instead has to work out on a cross trainer and the other has a serious foot injury that limits her abilities.
When you compare that to the cycling were allegedly having a fat bum or shaving the wrong bits of your body gets you chucked off the team.
In the athletics events we can enter two or three people for each event, provided they make the (usually quite easy) qualifying time, so no harm gained by sending the fastest two or three we can find for the experience.
I don't think those two 5000m girls are getting millions in funding and coaching like the cycling team though, or the likes of KJT - who was picked out early as a medal hope and given the same treatment as Ennis was a few years earlier.
Probably not..I just checked they actually pulled McColgan funding last year, but she has basically been injured off and on for 6 years (and she will never recover).
I would be shocked if you lasted on the cycling or rowing team if you were physically buggered, continually missing year after year, couldn't train full time and even at peak not close to world elite.
Volleyball squad lot their funding even though they rose miles in the world rankings into the top few (but missed a medal in 2012).
All things considered, surely the most remarkable thing about Theresa May's 68% net satisfaction lead over Corbyn is that it's not larger.
You and Mr Meeks and the other PB Remainers must be bitterly disappointed by the unemployment figures today. My sympathies
dick
Actually, to be fair, my remark was mainly aimed at Meeks. But I can't have a direct go at him cause he's got that horrible personal stuff going on. Feels wrong.
But the bigger point is true. Since the vote some REMAINERS have come close to relishing bad news on the economy. Or at least giving the impression that they relish bad news.
It's not a good look. They should stop. Now.
It's a sentiment based downturn. The real economy has kept on moving. 0.2-0.3% growth in Q3 (the Brexit quarter) is my estimate vs -0.2% from our (90% remain voting) forecasting team. I wonder whether I'll be closer.
You'll be closer, if only for the tourism figures boosted by the weakened pound.
Can't see whether the Olympics represent a boost or a hindrance to the economy, I know I've done less work than usual for the past fortnight!
Possibly, I also think the downturn in services won't be as bad and manufacturing will pick up in September. If I had to break it down I think -0.1, 0.1, 0.2 for the three months in the quarter.
As one of the grim-dark Brexiteers, I dislike the triumphalism as much as the condescension. Its 55 days after EUref and the UK is one of the largest economies in the world. It doesn't just turn on a sixpence.
We have to give some credence to the forecasts, the bulk of which agree a shortfall of ~2-2.5% growth by end of 2017, a rise of 250k in unemployment and inflation somewhere between 2-3%. I'm not so bothered about the shortfall, simply because I felt the OBR's forecast was ludicrously optimistic, but there is definitely hardship ahead.
As ever, it won't be the apocalypse, but it won't be Leadsom's sunlit uplands either.
I think the bigger shock will be when we actually leave. If it isn't moving one circle outwards to the EEA then a lot changes which could lead to a real downturn as businesses adjust to the new relationship with the EU. Right now it looks and feels like froth which is being egged on by certain parts of the press.
I don't know where those figures come from. An 11% Con lead represents a swing from Lab to Con of 2.2% compared with May 2015 which would cost Labour 15 seats - without allowing for any incumbency bonus for those MPs first elected last year.
Presumably an element of forecasting rather than nowcasting.
As discussed earlier about the Keirin farce last night, the DT got an interview with the Team GB data analyst who had a camera in a better position than the organisers.
As discussed earlier about the Keirin farce last night, the DT got an interview with the Team GB data analyst who had a camera in a better position than the organisers.
Yes, to add to all the coaches and medics, Team GB cycling have two full time data analysts.
Boardman let it out the bag the other day that they had had people mathematically modelling things like the points race e.g. so they knew things like chance of the first break away making a lap was 3%.
As discussed earlier about the Keirin farce last night, the DT got an interview with the Team GB data analyst who had a camera in a better position than the organisers.
Yes, to add to all the coaches and medics, Team GB cycling have two full time data analysts.
I don't see how a team based on numbers like Cycling and Team GBs ethos of marginal gains could be run without data analysts. I'm hoping that Team GB managament can bring the same attitude to Swimming and they move to a more professional way of coaching the team with power data and simulations.
All things considered, surely the most remarkable thing about Theresa May's 68% net satisfaction lead over Corbyn is that it's not larger.
You and Mr Meeks and the other PB Remainers must be bitterly disappointed by the unemployment figures today. My sympathies
dick
Actually, to be fair, my remark was mainly aimed at Meeks. But I can't have a direct go at him cause he's got that horrible personal stuff going on. Feels wrong.
But the bigger point is true. Since the vote some REMAINERS have come close to relishing bad news on the economy. Or at least giving the impression that they relish bad news.
It's not a good look. They should stop. Now.
It's a sentiment based downturn. The real economy has kept on moving. 0.2-0.3% growth in Q3 (the Brexit quarter) is my estimate vs -0.2% from our (90% remain voting) forecasting team. I wonder whether I'll be closer.
You'll be closer, if only for the tourism figures boosted by the weakened pound.
Can't see whether the Olympics represent a boost or a hindrance to the economy, I know I've done less work than usual for the past fortnight!
Possibly, I also think the downturn in services won't be as bad and manufacturing will pick up in September. If I had to break it down I think -0.1, 0.1, 0.2 for the three months in the quarter.
As one of the grim-dark Brexiteers, I dislike the triumphalism as much as the condescension. Its 55 days after EUref and the UK is one of the largest economies in the world. It doesn't just turn on a sixpence.
We have to give some credence to the forecasts, the bulk of which agree a shortfall of ~2-2.5% growth by end of 2017, a rise of 250k in unemployment and inflation somewhere between 2-3%. I'm not so bothered about the shortfall, simply because I felt the OBR's forecast was ludicrously optimistic, but there is definitely hardship ahead.
As ever, it won't be the apocalypse, but it won't be Leadsom's sunlit uplands either.
How did inflation of 2% become a problem? That's target.
As discussed earlier about the Keirin farce last night, the DT got an interview with the Team GB data analyst who had a camera in a better position than the organisers.
Yes, to add to all the coaches and medics, Team GB cycling have two full time data analysts.
I don't see how a team based on numbers like Cycling and Team GBs ethos of marginal gains could be run without data analysts. I'm hoping that Team GB managament can bring the same attitude to Swimming and they move to a more professional way of coaching the team with power data and simulations.
Number crunching is part of all elite sport, however a lot of it is just plain wrong. I read something about how a number of football teams were making a total hash of trying to analyse the penalty kick data and making undergrad style mistakes.
As discussed earlier about the Keirin farce last night, the DT got an interview with the Team GB data analyst who had a camera in a better position than the organisers.
Yes, to add to all the coaches and medics, Team GB cycling have two full time data analysts.
Boardman let it out the bag the other day that they had had people mathematically modelling things like the points race e.g. so they knew things like chance of the first break away making a lap was 3%.
The closest equivalent I can think to what British Cycling are doing, is an F1 team. The attention to detail and the number of people involved in the whole setup is absolutely astonishing. The cyclists are like F1 drivers, they do their bit and take the glory, but couldn't do it without the whole team behind them.
A summer holiday poll in the midst of a political honeymoon. Oddly enough, not as bad for Labour as some might have expected and those of us who thought the 11% LD number last time a bit of an outlier not that surprised either.
I'm no fan of the Prime Minister or her Government and the fact travel costs will rise 1.9% next year is yet another kick in the teeth for the "hard working families" with whom Mrs May was so quick to identify on entering Downing Street.
It's all very well parking your tanks on someone else's lawn but when those tanks are rusted burnt out hulks all they are is an eyesore stopping the grass grow.
As discussed earlier about the Keirin farce last night, the DT got an interview with the Team GB data analyst who had a camera in a better position than the organisers.
Yes, to add to all the coaches and medics, Team GB cycling have two full time data analysts.
Boardman let it out the bag the other day that they had had people mathematically modelling things like the points race e.g. so they knew things like chance of the first break away making a lap was 3%.
The closest equivalent I can think to what British Cycling are doing, is an F1 team. The attention to detail and the number of people involved in the whole setup is absolutely astonishing. The cyclists are like F1 drivers, they do their bit and take the glory, but couldn't do it without the whole team behind them.
Absolutely. Team Sky are the masters of this. All the other teams have for so long been total amateurs at the data analysis side of things, and then along came Team Sky and are just way ahead of the pack on this aspect of the sport.
You saw it again on the Tour de France, they had clearly modelled Froome weird racing postion for going downhill, also a number of stages that all the other teams thought were not really of any interest, Team Sky had analysed and worked out how they could take marginal advantages.
A summer holiday poll in the midst of a political honeymoon. Oddly enough, not as bad for Labour as some might have expected and those of us who thought the 11% LD number last time a bit of an outlier not that surprised either.
I'm no fan of the Prime Minister or her Government and the fact travel costs will rise 1.9% next year is yet another kick in the teeth for the "hard working families" with whom Mrs May was so quick to identify on entering Downing Street.
It's all very well parking your tanks on someone else's lawn but when those tanks are rusted burnt out hulks all they are is an eyesore stopping the grass grow.
How is travel costs not changing (an inflation only rise is no rise at all) a kick in the teeth?
As discussed earlier about the Keirin farce last night, the DT got an interview with the Team GB data analyst who had a camera in a better position than the organisers.
Yes, to add to all the coaches and medics, Team GB cycling have two full time data analysts.
I don't see how a team based on numbers like Cycling and Team GBs ethos of marginal gains could be run without data analysts. I'm hoping that Team GB managament can bring the same attitude to Swimming and they move to a more professional way of coaching the team with power data and simulations.
Number crunching is part of all elite sport, however a lot of it is just plain wrong. I read something about how a number of football teams were making a total hash of trying to analyse the penalty kick data and making undergrad style mistakes.
Yes, well there's no bar on the quality of analysis. I've seen it many times before. I'll stop before I speak ill of my colleagues.
All things considered, surely the most remarkable thing about Theresa May's 68% net satisfaction lead over Corbyn is that it's not larger.
You and Mr Meeks and the other PB Remainers must be bitterly disappointed by the unemployment figures today. My sympathies
dick
Actually, to be fair, my remark was mainly aimed at Meeks. But I can't have a direct go at him cause he's got that horrible personal stuff going on. Feels wrong.
But the bigger point is true. Since the vote some REMAINERS have come close to relishing bad news on the economy. Or at least giving the impression that they relish bad news.
It's not a good look. They should stop. Now.
It's a sentiment based downturn. The real economy has kept on moving. 0.2-0.3% growth in Q3 (the Brexit quarter) is my estimate vs -0.2% from our (90% remain voting) forecasting team. I wonder whether I'll be closer.
You'll be closer, if only for the tourism figures boosted by the weakened pound.
Can't see whether the Olympics represent a boost or a hindrance to the economy, I know I've done less work than usual for the past fortnight!
Possibly, I also think the downturn in services won't be as bad and manufacturing will pick up in September. If I had to break it down I think -0.1, 0.1, 0.2 for the three months in the quarter.
As one of the grim-dark Brexiteers, I dislike the triumphalism as much as the condescension. Its 55 days after EUref and the UK is one of the largest economies in the world. It doesn't just turn on a sixpence.
We have to give some credence to the forecasts, the bulk of which agree a shortfall of ~2-2.5% growth by end of 2017, a rise of 250k in unemployment and inflation somewhere between 2-3%. I'm not so bothered about the shortfall, simply because I felt the OBR's forecast was ludicrously optimistic, but there is definitely hardship ahead.
As ever, it won't be the apocalypse, but it won't be Leadsom's sunlit uplands either.
How did inflation of 2% become a problem? That's target.
It'll be reported as a problem c.f. yesterday's reporting of a 0.1% rise.
Of course, there are countries who would give their left nut for modest inflation, falling house prices, a currency devaluation and an unemployment rate that peaked @ <6%.
When Britain does well is must whip the rug from under coasting sports programs. The Americans are wealthy, the Chinese have huge numbers and the Russians are dodgy. But when Britain does it, there's very little excuse for under performing coaches and athletes.
Didn't today's stats, we 're on that, show wages up 2.3%? If a 0.1% inflation rise (0.3% taking the larger figure) is a spike, presumably Faisal Islam and other excitable sorts in the media will be describing wages rising like a rocket, soaring like a skyscraper, etc?
I don't know where those figures come from. An 11% Con lead represents a swing from Lab to Con of 2.2% compared with May 2015 which would cost Labour 15 seats - without allowing for any incumbency bonus for those MPs first elected last year.
Presumably an element of forecasting rather than nowcasting.
All things considered, surely the most remarkable thing about Theresa May's 68% net satisfaction lead over Corbyn is that it's not larger.
You and Mr Meeks and the other PB Remainers must be bitterly disappointed by the unemployment figures today. My sympathies
dick
Actually, to be fair, my remark was mainly aimed at Meeks. But I can't have a direct go at him cause he's got that horrible personal stuff going on. Feels wrong.
But the bigger point is true. Since the vote some REMAINERS have come close to relishing bad news on the economy. Or at least giving the impression that they relish bad news.
It's not a good look. They should stop. Now.
It's a sentiment based downturn. The real economy has kept on moving. 0.2-0.3% growth in Q3 (the Brexit quarter) is my estimate vs -0.2% from our (90% remain voting) forecasting team. I wonder whether I'll be closer.
You'll be closer, if only for the tourism figures boosted by the weakened pound.
Can't see whether the Olympics represent a boost or a hindrance to the economy, I know I've done less work than usual for the past fortnight!
Possibly, I also think the downturn in services won't be as bad and manufacturing will pick up in September. If I had to break it down I think -0.1, 0.1, 0.2 for the three months in the quarter.
As one of the grim-dark Brexiteers, I dislike the triumphalism as much as the condescension. Its 55 days after EUref and the UK is one of the largest economies in the world. It doesn't just turn on a sixpence.
We have to give some credence to the forecasts, the bulk of which agree a shortfall of ~2-2.5% growth by end of 2017, a rise of 250k in unemployment and inflation somewhere between 2-3%. I'm not so bothered about the shortfall, simply because I felt the OBR's forecast was ludicrously optimistic, but there is definitely hardship ahead.
As ever, it won't be the apocalypse, but it won't be Leadsom's sunlit uplands either.
How did inflation of 2% become a problem? That's target.
It'll be reported as a problem c.f. yesterday's reporting of a 0.1% rise.
Of course, there are countries who would give their left nut for modest inflation, falling house prices, a currency devaluation and an unemployment rate that peaked @ <6%.</p>
I don't see how inflation by a devaluation is a problem. It is merely a consequence. You are right though, Japan would trade places with us in a heartbeat!
Didn't today's stats, we 're on that, show wages up 2.3%? If a 0.1% inflation rise (0.3% taking the larger figure) is a spike, presumably Faisal Islam and other excitable sorts in the media will be describing wages rising like a rocket, soaring like a skyscraper, etc?
The most interesting publication today is the ONS's nowcasting on household incomes. Worth a glance:
''The cyclists are like F1 drivers, they do their bit and take the glory, but couldn't do it without the whole team behind them. ''
When Brailsford moved on, I wondered if the performance might drop. Its clearly in the DNA of the whole team, however.
It's something that the other sports within Team GB are looking to copy. Its no surprise that once our gymastics team became more like our cycling team we have immense success. That's not to take away from the likes of Max Whitlock who have been awesome, but in our 1996 setup the same guy would have been lucky to come away with a medal let alone two golds and a bronze. Marginal gains, concentration on success and repetition have made our Olympic team the team to beat IMO.
As discussed earlier about the Keirin farce last night, the DT got an interview with the Team GB data analyst who had a camera in a better position than the organisers.
Yes, to add to all the coaches and medics, Team GB cycling have two full time data analysts.
I don't see how a team based on numbers like Cycling and Team GBs ethos of marginal gains could be run without data analysts. I'm hoping that Team GB managament can bring the same attitude to Swimming and they move to a more professional way of coaching the team with power data and simulations.
Number crunching is part of all elite sport, however a lot of it is just plain wrong. I read something about how a number of football teams were making a total hash of trying to analyse the penalty kick data and making undergrad style mistakes.
Yes, well there's no bar on the quality of analysis. I've seen it many times before. I'll stop before I speak ill of my colleagues.
There is a really good story of the worlds most successful NBA better (bob voulgaris). He employs a team including Ivy league PhDs to assist him in the modelling and analysis of the games.
He decided a few years ago that he actually wanted to be part of the game, rather than just a bettor. He is really well known in the NBA world, and applied to a number of the teams for a position assisting with the data analysis etc, and he was truly shocked how bad their methods were. He described the sort of analysis they were doing were things he had moved well past 5+ years ago.
Despite willing to take a pay cut, they passed on hiring him, because they didn't believed some of the things he talked about were valid analysis of the game. He actually proved via analysis there were bent refs in the NBA, when the teams had no idea at all there was anything dodgy going on.
< How is travel costs not changing (an inflation only rise is no rise at all) a kick in the teeth?
It wouldn't be if my income was going up by 1.9% but it's not. I'm only getting a 1% wage rise this year (for which I am told I should be grateful as it is above CPI inflation).
The problem is we have two measures of inflation which are wildly out of line with each other - is the true rate of inflation 0.6% or 1.9% ?
As for wages going up 2.3% - it's a statistic which does not correspond with my anecdotal evidence but then I'm an older man (in my 50s) and perhaps it's the young who are seeing the greater wage rises. To assume everybody is seeing their wage rise 2.3% is foolish.
As discussed earlier about the Keirin farce last night, the DT got an interview with the Team GB data analyst who had a camera in a better position than the organisers.
Yes, to add to all the coaches and medics, Team GB cycling have two full time data analysts.
I don't see how a team based on numbers like Cycling and Team GBs ethos of marginal gains could be run without data analysts. I'm hoping that Team GB managament can bring the same attitude to Swimming and they move to a more professional way of coaching the team with power data and simulations.
Number crunching is part of all elite sport, however a lot of it is just plain wrong. I read something about how a number of football teams were making a total hash of trying to analyse the penalty kick data and making undergrad style mistakes.
Football one is a classic as the headline figures that the media use (possession, chances, km run) are functionally useless.
As discussed earlier about the Keirin farce last night, the DT got an interview with the Team GB data analyst who had a camera in a better position than the organisers.
Yes, to add to all the coaches and medics, Team GB cycling have two full time data analysts.
Boardman let it out the bag the other day that they had had people mathematically modelling things like the points race e.g. so they knew things like chance of the first break away making a lap was 3%.
The closest equivalent I can think to what British Cycling are doing, is an F1 team. The attention to detail and the number of people involved in the whole setup is absolutely astonishing. The cyclists are like F1 drivers, they do their bit and take the glory, but couldn't do it without the whole team behind them.
Absolutely. Team Sky are the masters of this. All the other teams have for so long been total amateurs at the data analysis side of things, and then along came Team Sky and are just way ahead of the pack on this aspect of the sport.
You saw it again on the Tour de France, they had clearly modelled Froome weird racing postion for going downhill, also a number of stages that all the other teams thought were not really of any interest, Team Sky had analysed and worked out how they could take marginal advantages.
Yes it's clear that the genuinely professional Team Sky outfit have heavily influenced what GB are now doing, hardly susprising given David Brailsford.
I saw a documentary on the Sky TDF team, where they had basically engineered the bike like an F1 car, changing standard materials for expensive alloys and shaving hundredths of a millimetre from the thickness of tubes to save a few grams here and there. All this done with CAD, CFD and wind tunnel testing. The result was that they got a minimum 7kg(?) road bike down to something like 5.5, and could then change the character of the bike with strategically added ballast depending on the stage being run. Straight out of the F1 playbook.
< How is travel costs not changing (an inflation only rise is no rise at all) a kick in the teeth?
It wouldn't be if my income was going up by 1.9% but it's not. I'm only getting a 1% wage rise this year (for which I am told I should be grateful as it is above CPI inflation).
The problem is we have two measures of inflation which are wildly out of line with each other - is the true rate of inflation 0.6% or 1.9% ?
As for wages going up 2.3% - it's a statistic which does not correspond with my anecdotal evidence but then I'm an older man (in my 50s) and perhaps it's the young who are seeing the greater wage rises. To assume everybody is seeing their wage rise 2.3% is foolish.
The 2.3% figure masks a stagnation in the middle and a larger rise at the top and bottom. Unfortunately the ONS don't break down wages by income decile, though I'm sure they have the data.
As discussed earlier about the Keirin farce last night, the DT got an interview with the Team GB data analyst who had a camera in a better position than the organisers.
Yes, to add to all the coaches and medics, Team GB cycling have two full time data analysts.
I don't see how a team based on numbers like Cycling and Team GBs ethos of marginal gains could be run without data analysts. I'm hoping that Team GB managament can bring the same attitude to Swimming and they move to a more professional way of coaching the team with power data and simulations.
Number crunching is part of all elite sport, however a lot of it is just plain wrong. I read something about how a number of football teams were making a total hash of trying to analyse the penalty kick data and making undergrad style mistakes.
Football one is a classic as the headline figures that the media use (possession, chances, km run) are functionally useless.
Absolutely. The book I read 4-5 years ago regarding what pro level teams do in terms of analysis wasn't much more advanced than the nonsense you see on the tv.
There is the guy who owns Brentford also owns a data analysis company, who supposedly does a lot of interesting novel work on this, but he is considered a bit "odd" in the football world.
The Mori poll figures would imply a Tory majority of 48 assuming a uniform swing . 15 gains from Labour - 2 from LibDems - 1 from SNP.
Labour would be sub 30% in reality though...
My guess is that a general election tomorrow would result in something like Con 42%, Lab 28%, UKIP 10%, Lib Dem 10%.
I think that's about right.
I'm surprised Mrs May doesn't come up with an outline Brexit plan (Canada Plus) followed by an immediate General Election. It would lead to a huge Conservative majority.
Otherwise, 2020 - when some people are going to be unhappy with whatever Brexit is eventually negotiated, and it is possible we'll be in Article 50 inspire recession - could be very difficult for the Conservative Party.
Didn't today's stats, we 're on that, show wages up 2.3%? If a 0.1% inflation rise (0.3% taking the larger figure) is a spike, presumably Faisal Islam and other excitable sorts in the media will be describing wages rising like a rocket, soaring like a skyscraper, etc?
In a morass of poor analysis of today's data we had the usual suspects trumpeting the claimant number fall as some vindication of Brexit.
As almost anyone with a spare brain cell will tell you, employment/unemployment numbers are a notoriously lagging indicator and are fine if you want to know what happened last week but are not much good at forecasting today let alone tomorrow or next week.
Apart from the immediate political impact and consequences, we have yet to begin to see the economic consequences of the LEAVE vote and one hopes that when the Government finally gets its backside into gear, instigates Article 50 and starts the process, we will have a better idea as to the post-EU economic landscape.
''Marginal gains, concentration on success and repetition have made our Olympic team the team to beat IMO. ''
I wonder if this is an enterprise we can turn into a business. We clearly lead the world in it.
Perhaps more interesting is what can we do to apply such knowledge and skills to things other than sports, and I don't mean motivational speaking by someone like Brailsford, are there things businesses and the public sector should be copying?
As discussed earlier about the Keirin farce last night, the DT got an interview with the Team GB data analyst who had a camera in a better position than the organisers.
Yes, to add to all the coaches and medics, Team GB cycling have two full time data analysts.
I don't see how a team based on numbers like Cycling and Team GBs ethos of marginal gains could be run without data analysts. I'm hoping that Team GB managament can bring the same attitude to Swimming and they move to a more professional way of coaching the team with power data and simulations.
Number crunching is part of all elite sport, however a lot of it is just plain wrong. I read something about how a number of football teams were making a total hash of trying to analyse the penalty kick data and making undergrad style mistakes.
Football one is a classic as the headline figures that the media use (possession, chances, km run) are functionally useless.
Absolutely. The book I read 4-5 years ago regarding what pro level teams do in terms of analysis wasn't much more advanced than the nonsense you see on the tv.
There is the guy who owns Brentford also owns a data analysis company, who supposedly does a lot of interesting novel work on this, but he is considered a bit "odd" in the football world.
Yeah, the old boy network runs quite deep.
If you do your research, you'll find that the clubs are running much more involved data analysis than they let on.
Owen Smith today sent out a handy reminder that he is the best of two bad choices. But because he is he has my support 100%.
IPSOS Mori provides some solace - UKIP has a hell of a lot of work to do, as well as some serious thinking ahead, if it is to challenge Labour in its heartlands. I remain to be convinced it is capable of either.
< How is travel costs not changing (an inflation only rise is no rise at all) a kick in the teeth?
It wouldn't be if my income was going up by 1.9% but it's not. I'm only getting a 1% wage rise this year (for which I am told I should be grateful as it is above CPI inflation).
The problem is we have two measures of inflation which are wildly out of line with each other - is the true rate of inflation 0.6% or 1.9% ?
As for wages going up 2.3% - it's a statistic which does not correspond with my anecdotal evidence but then I'm an older man (in my 50s) and perhaps it's the young who are seeing the greater wage rises. To assume everybody is seeing their wage rise 2.3% is foolish.
The 2.3% figure masks a stagnation in the middle and a larger rise at the top and bottom. Unfortunately the ONS don't break down wages by income decile, though I'm sure they have the data.
The inflation figures are odd. We have services inflation running at, or above, target countered by goods deflation.
Then there's the argument about the baskets used to calculate the rate. It's highly unlikely they'll be representative of an individual's spending patterns. As just one minor example, the ONS have added coffee pods and microwaveable rice to the 2016 basket. I use neither.
As discussed earlier about the Keirin farce last night, the DT got an interview with the Team GB data analyst who had a camera in a better position than the organisers.
Yes, to add to all the coaches and medics, Team GB cycling have two full time data analysts.
I don't see how a team based on numbers like Cycling and Team GBs ethos of marginal gains could be run without data analysts. I'm hoping that Team GB managament can bring the same attitude to Swimming and they move to a more professional way of coaching the team with power data and simulations.
Number crunching is part of all elite sport, however a lot of it is just plain wrong. I read something about how a number of football teams were making a total hash of trying to analyse the penalty kick data and making undergrad style mistakes.
Football one is a classic as the headline figures that the media use (possession, chances, km run) are functionally useless.
Absolutely. The book I read 4-5 years ago regarding what pro level teams do in terms of analysis wasn't much more advanced than the nonsense you see on the tv.
There is the guy who owns Brentford also owns a data analysis company, who supposedly does a lot of interesting novel work on this, but he is considered a bit "odd" in the football world.
Yeah, the old boy network runs quite deep.
If you do your research, you'll find that the clubs are running much more involved data analysis than they let on.
Prozone data and services is what I believe a lot of the Premier League team lean a lot on these days.
''Marginal gains, concentration on success and repetition have made our Olympic team the team to beat IMO. ''
I wonder if this is an enterprise we can turn into a business. We clearly lead the world in it.
Perhaps more interesting is what can we do to apply such knowledge and skills to things other than sports, and I don't mean motivational speaking by someone like Brailsford, are there things businesses and the public sector should be copying?
FT has recently run an article on just that topic.
"As a case study of total and intended success, of a top-down project going to plan, there is little to match this in the annals of British technocracy.
...
Before the implications for public services seem too plain, conservatives should speak up. Investment galvanised British athletics but so did a pitiless elitism.
...
The read-across to public administration is performance-related pay, not a rise for every teacher, and hospital league tables, not an article of credulous faith that all providers do an equally fabulous job. The state cannot allow for pure meritocracy and outright failure as sport can. It has a duty of universal provision. "
opening 3 paragraphs are a wonderful turn of phrase.
Owen Smith today sent out a handy reminder that he is the best of two bad choices. But because he is he has my support 100%.
IPSOS Mori provides some solace - UKIP has a hell of a lot of work to do, as well as some serious thinking ahead, if it is to challenge Labour in its heartlands. I remain to be convinced it is capable of either.
I am somewhat confused as to how you can take Smith's declaration that he would negotiate with IS (and falsely claiming credit for the NI Peace process) as showing that he has had a good day.
He has demonstrated that he speaks without thinking - again.
The Brexit vote took place in a relatively benign economic environment so we are talking about growth forsworn rather than actual decline in the first instance. The downpayment on Brexit is 2% of GDP in the next couple of years and we will have to see what happens after that.
I think the economic effects will be patchy. It could be catastrophic for farmers, depending on what happens at the WTO. Bad for them but they only make up a small part of the overall economy. The City of London will be significantly hit, I suspect, but that's highly mobile work anyway. The rest will be marginal investment that drifts elsewhere.
The main problem with Brexit, as I see it, is that it will dominate government and business strategy for the next ten years. It will take years of grief, argument and gruelling effort to salvage as much as possible of the status quo and yet we will end up well short of where we were. That's just nuts.
''Marginal gains, concentration on success and repetition have made our Olympic team the team to beat IMO. ''
I wonder if this is an enterprise we can turn into a business. We clearly lead the world in it.
The guy behind the CricViz app was the England Cricket Teams data analyst for a number of years. Not very impressed with some of the outputs from model so far....
Owen Smith today sent out a handy reminder that he is the best of two bad choices. But because he is he has my support 100%.
IPSOS Mori provides some solace - UKIP has a hell of a lot of work to do, as well as some serious thinking ahead, if it is to challenge Labour in its heartlands. I remain to be convinced it is capable of either.
I am somewhat confused as to how you can take Smith's declaration that he would negotiate with IS (and falsely claiming credit for the NI Peace process) as showing that he has had a good day.
He has demonstrated that he speaks without thinking - again.
< The 2.3% figure masks a stagnation in the middle and a larger rise at the top and bottom. Unfortunately the ONS don't break down wages by income decile, though I'm sure they have the data.
I'm sure that's true and as one of the "squeezed middle" (sure I've heard that before), I take the glowing economic reports with a bucket of salt.
Frankly, my personal economic situation has stagnated since 2010 - I can't honestly say I'm much worse off but I'm not much better off. I suspect I am not atypical,
It annoys me that Mrs May claims to be "on my side" just as David Cameron did but neither has done a single thing to help me substantially. I realise she is everyone else's political idol at the moment but I've had enough of her and think she will be a tenth-rate Prime Minister.
Clifford Chance’s investigation has dropped in the middle of August while most people in Westminster are on holiday. It completely exonerates most of the key players in the Tory bullying scandal.
Owen Smith today sent out a handy reminder that he is the best of two bad choices. But because he is he has my support 100%.
IPSOS Mori provides some solace - UKIP has a hell of a lot of work to do, as well as some serious thinking ahead, if it is to challenge Labour in its heartlands. I remain to be convinced it is capable of either.
Do you have a vote then? Because I'm not clear on whether you rejoined before or after the cutoff or registered later. (Apologies if you have said this earlier and I have missed it.)
Mr Dancer, negotiating with someone is somewhat different from being friendly towards them, as we may be about to find out over Brexit.
Owen Smith today sent out a handy reminder that he is the best of two bad choices. But because he is he has my support 100%.
IPSOS Mori provides some solace - UKIP has a hell of a lot of work to do, as well as some serious thinking ahead, if it is to challenge Labour in its heartlands. I remain to be convinced it is capable of either.
Do you have a vote then? Because I'm not clear on whether you rejoined before or after the cutoff or registered later. (Apologies if you have said this earlier and I have missed it.)
Owen Smith today sent out a handy reminder that he is the best of two bad choices. But because he is he has my support 100%.
IPSOS Mori provides some solace - UKIP has a hell of a lot of work to do, as well as some serious thinking ahead, if it is to challenge Labour in its heartlands. I remain to be convinced it is capable of either.
I am somewhat confused as to how you can take Smith's declaration that he would negotiate with IS (and falsely claiming credit for the NI Peace process) as showing that he has had a good day.
He has demonstrated that he speaks without thinking - again.
I don't think you understood my post :-)
I can't see anything in Smith's performance that indicates that he is better than anyone. He is intemperate in his choice of language, he makes foreign policy statements without thinking and he lies about his past record.
Owen Smith today sent out a handy reminder that he is the best of two bad choices. But because he is he has my support 100%.
IPSOS Mori provides some solace - UKIP has a hell of a lot of work to do, as well as some serious thinking ahead, if it is to challenge Labour in its heartlands. I remain to be convinced it is capable of either.
Do you have a vote then? Because I'm not clear on whether you rejoined before or after the cutoff or registered later. (Apologies if you have said this earlier and I have missed it.)
Rejoined too late, but have paid my £25.
Fair enough.
I thought about paying up as well to vote against Corbyn - but I couldn't do it. Not for Owen Smith. He's better than Corbyn, but he's still proving pretty bad. Had Hilary Benn or Stella Creasy stood...
EDIT - and I still say that it is a tragedy Jon Cruddas cannot be persuaded to take a leadership role, preferably as leader.
Brazil's interim president Michel Temer has decided not to attend the closing ceremony of the 2016 Olympic Games scheduled for Sunday 21 August in Rio de Janeiro's Maracana stadium, fearing that hostile demonstrations against him could damage his image, Brazilian newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo reported.
Looking forward on the economy, many people (including most economists who are publishing forecasts) seem to be looking down the wrong end of the telescope. There's no point trying to estimate the economic effects of Brexit without first trying to get a good hold on the political aspects. For example, a scenario where we rapidly come to an amicable agreement with our EU friends which provides fullish access to the Single Market, and where the WTO tariff and quota schedules are rapidly sorted out, will be economically hugely different from a scenario where it all becomes acrimonious or simply bogged down in uncertainty for years. As yet, there's virtually no clarity on how that will turn out, so economic forecasts have to be taken with even more bucketloads of salt than usual.
''Marginal gains, concentration on success and repetition have made our Olympic team the team to beat IMO. ''
I wonder if this is an enterprise we can turn into a business. We clearly lead the world in it.
Perhaps more interesting is what can we do to apply such knowledge and skills to things other than sports, and I don't mean motivational speaking by someone like Brailsford, are there things businesses and the public sector should be copying?
Well not supporting losers is a good thing. On that basis the MOD would have lost all its senior staff for non performance and the Army all its generals for Helmand. The NHS would have seen many senior staff fired and effectively blackballed for killing patients (MRSA, CDiff and care) and Social Services management would be decimated..
FT has recently run an article on just that topic.
Interesting, but it doesn't really answer my question about whether there are things to be copied. Maybe a poorly performing sport with its narrow focus is easy to improve. Could we give the NHS a similar kick up the arse? Or is it simply too big and diverse to improve to such a degree as quickly as British cycling has improved. I hope some smart people in Whitehall are at least thinking about this.
Well not supporting losers is a good thing. On that basis the MOD would have lost all its senior staff for non performance and the Army all its generals for Helmand. The NHS would have seen many senior staff fired and effectively blackballed for killing patients (MRSA, CDiff and care) and Social Services management would be decimated..
FT has recently run an article on just that topic.
Interesting, but it doesn't really answer my question about whether there are things to be copied. Maybe a poorly performing sport with its narrow focus is easy to improve. Could we give the NHS a similar kick up the arse? Or is it simply too big and diverse to improve to such a degree as quickly as British cycling has improved. I hope some smart people in Whitehall are at least thinking about this.
The "nudge group" that were setup by the government a few years were actually quite effective, using data analysis and behavioural psychology with some good cheap successes.
FT has recently run an article on just that topic.
Interesting, but it doesn't really answer my question about whether there are things to be copied. Maybe a poorly performing sport with its narrow focus is easy to improve. Could we give the NHS a similar kick up the arse? Or is it simply too big and diverse to improve to such a degree as quickly as British cycling has improved. I hope some smart people in Whitehall are at least thinking about this.
The key element to me is that the targets of that improvement effort must actually want to improve. Athletes are not employees.
What I do think is more generally applicable is the lack of emotional investment and wishful thinking. They're incredibly data-driven.
Looking forward on the economy, many people (including most economists who are publishing forecasts) seem to be looking down the wrong end of the telescope. There's no point trying to estimate the economic effects of Brexit without first trying to get a good hold on the political aspects. For example, a scenario where we rapidly come to an amicable agreement with our EU friends which provides fullish access to the Single Market, and where the WTO tariff and quota schedules are rapidly sorted out, will be economically hugely different from a scenario where it all becomes acrimonious or simply bogged down in uncertainty for years. As yet, there's virtually no clarity on how that will turn out, so economic forecasts have to be taken with even more bucketloads of salt than usual.
If (for once) you are correct then you have obliterated the credibility of Osborne's Treasury forecasts that were widely quoted by REMAIN campaigners.
The Mori poll figures would imply a Tory majority of 48 assuming a uniform swing . 15 gains from Labour - 2 from LibDems - 1 from SNP.
Labour would be sub 30% in reality though...
My guess is that a general election tomorrow would result in something like Con 42%, Lab 28%, UKIP 10%, Lib Dem 10%.
I think that's about right.
I'm surprised Mrs May doesn't come up with an outline Brexit plan (Canada Plus) followed by an immediate General Election. It would lead to a huge Conservative majority.
Otherwise, 2020 - when some people are going to be unhappy with whatever Brexit is eventually negotiated, and it is possible we'll be in Article 50 inspire recession - could be very difficult for the Conservative Party.
Labour can effectively block an election this year - or at least delay it until December 1st or 8th!
Owen Smith today sent out a handy reminder that he is the best of two bad choices. But because he is he has my support 100%.
IPSOS Mori provides some solace - UKIP has a hell of a lot of work to do, as well as some serious thinking ahead, if it is to challenge Labour in its heartlands. I remain to be convinced it is capable of either.
Do you have a vote then? Because I'm not clear on whether you rejoined before or after the cutoff or registered later. (Apologies if you have said this earlier and I have missed it.)
Rejoined too late, but have paid my £25.
Fair enough.
I thought about paying up as well to vote against Corbyn - but I couldn't do it. Not for Owen Smith. He's better than Corbyn, but he's still proving pretty bad. Had Hilary Benn or Stella Creasy stood...
EDIT - and I still say that it is a tragedy Jon Cruddas cannot be persuaded to take a leadership role, preferably as leader.
I think you have to be committed to the Labour party to support Smith. I am under no illusions about him. He'll no doubt lose, but I do think the campaign has not been good for Corbyn. It has focused a lot of attention on his failings and Labour members will now have a set of parameters against which to judge him. That is helpful. Corbyn has a die/hard, vocal base, but much of his support is relatively soft. He will have to work very hard to retain it over the coming few years.
Looking forward on the economy, many people (including most economists who are publishing forecasts) seem to be looking down the wrong end of the telescope. There's no point trying to estimate the economic effects of Brexit without first trying to get a good hold on the political aspects. For example, a scenario where we rapidly come to an amicable agreement with our EU friends which provides fullish access to the Single Market, and where the WTO tariff and quota schedules are rapidly sorted out, will be economically hugely different from a scenario where it all becomes acrimonious or simply bogged down in uncertainty for years. As yet, there's virtually no clarity on how that will turn out, so economic forecasts have to be taken with even more bucketloads of salt than usual.
If (for once) you are correct then you have obliterated the credibility of Osborne's Treasury forecasts that were widely quoted by REMAIN campaigners.
Actually no. The main widely-quoted Treasury forecasts were about the final position once the uncertainty is resolved, not how we get there over the next two or three years. If you recall (assuming that you bothered to read them, rather than just trashing them blind like most Leavers), they considered three main scenarios.
It was one of the curious features of the economic forecasting that the long-term forecasts were in some ways easier than the short-term forecasts, which depend so much on the length of the political uncertainty. I think that remains the case.
I don't know where those figures come from. An 11% Con lead represents a swing from Lab to Con of 2.2% compared with May 2015 which would cost Labour 15 seats - without allowing for any incumbency bonus for those MPs first elected last year.
Presumably an element of forecasting rather than nowcasting.
No - it is nowcasting based on this poll!
Well I can't see how you get to CON 391
I may have misunderstood you! This poll would only get the Tories to 348.
"Labour leadership challenger Owen Smith has suggested the so-called Islamic State could be involved in negotiations with the West in the future."
If Hillary had said this, even Trump would be odds-on for the White House. In these negotiations, what would the West offer? A few teenage girls every year? We'll let you behead a few Christians now and again?
And even dafter, what would IS relent on? They are a death cult, it's convert to their branch of Islam or die.
It's a serious question and a foot in the mouth moment from Smith. Jezza is bonkers, but he'll make hay from this.
< How is travel costs not changing (an inflation only rise is no rise at all) a kick in the teeth?
It wouldn't be if my income was going up by 1.9% but it's not. I'm only getting a 1% wage rise this year (for which I am told I should be grateful as it is above CPI inflation).
The problem is we have two measures of inflation which are wildly out of line with each other - is the true rate of inflation 0.6% or 1.9% ?
As for wages going up 2.3% - it's a statistic which does not correspond with my anecdotal evidence but then I'm an older man (in my 50s) and perhaps it's the young who are seeing the greater wage rises. To assume everybody is seeing their wage rise 2.3% is foolish.
Even if you're only getting a 1% pay rise then that means the net travel change is 0.9% in real terms. Not the end of the world or a kick in the teeth quite frankly.
"Labour leadership challenger Owen Smith has suggested the so-called Islamic State could be involved in negotiations with the West in the future."
If Hillary had said this, even Trump would be odds-on for the White House. In these negotiations, what would the West offer? A few teenage girls every year? We'll let you behead a few Christians now and again?
And even dafter, what would IS relent on? They are a death cult, it's convert to their branch of Islam or die.
It's a serious question and a foot in the moth moment from Smith. Jezza is bonkers, but he'll make hay from this.
Smith was very stupid and clearly his position (since clarified) is untenable, but Corbyn said exactly the same earlier this year and is not capable of making hay from it. Given his support for the IRA, Hamas, Stop the War and so on, he does not want to get into an argument on those issues. Smith has provided a gift to the Tories, not to the hard left.
Comments
All they need now is for Jezza to be "cemented" in place and then find an excuse to have a general election...
For the 5k maybe introduce two qualifying standards, say 13' and 14' with those who've run the faster time this year not having to run the heat.
"Horst eyed his bristling moustache with suspicion."
er, that's a bit of a range, whats the point of the guesstimate if the range is that big?
When you compare that to the cycling were allegedly having a fat bum or shaving the wrong bits of your body gets you chucked off the team.
Every day on PB we learn something!
http://www.radiotimes.com/news/2016-07-22/rio-2016-olympics-schedule-day-by-day-sport-guide-and-event-coverage-8
We have to give some credence to the forecasts, the bulk of which agree a shortfall of ~2-2.5% growth by end of 2017, a rise of 250k in unemployment and inflation somewhere between 2-3%. I'm not so bothered about the shortfall, simply because I felt the OBR's forecast was ludicrously optimistic, but there is definitely hardship ahead.
As ever, it won't be the apocalypse, but it won't be Leadsom's sunlit uplands either.
UK Sport bloke on WatO said actually that their forecast was for 56 medals, which we are likely to smash through.
REMAIN 48%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain_at_the_2016_Summer_Olympics
I don't think those two 5000m girls are getting millions in funding and coaching like the cycling team though, or the likes of KJT - who was picked out early as a medal hope and given the same treatment as Ennis was a few years earlier.
YouGov also has Labour at 31%.
I am not inclined to particularly question a Tory lead of 11% - but the party shares look odd. The sheer volatility of the Mori figures stretches credulity - LibDem dropping from 11% to 7% compared with a month ago. Seems unlikely to say the least.
I would be shocked if you lasted on the cycling or rowing team if you were physically buggered, continually missing year after year, couldn't train full time and even at peak not close to world elite.
Volleyball squad lot their funding even though they rose miles in the world rankings into the top few (but missed a medal in 2012).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/olympics/2016/08/17/how-two-team-gb-data-analysts-helped-jason-kenny-during-farcical/
Yes, to add to all the coaches and medics, Team GB cycling have two full time data analysts.
A summer holiday poll in the midst of a political honeymoon. Oddly enough, not as bad for Labour as some might have expected and those of us who thought the 11% LD number last time a bit of an outlier not that surprised either.
I'm no fan of the Prime Minister or her Government and the fact travel costs will rise 1.9% next year is yet another kick in the teeth for the "hard working families" with whom Mrs May was so quick to identify on entering Downing Street.
It's all very well parking your tanks on someone else's lawn but when those tanks are rusted burnt out hulks all they are is an eyesore stopping the grass grow.
You saw it again on the Tour de France, they had clearly modelled Froome weird racing postion for going downhill, also a number of stages that all the other teams thought were not really of any interest, Team Sky had analysed and worked out how they could take marginal advantages.
Of course, there are countries who would give their left nut for modest inflation, falling house prices, a currency devaluation and an unemployment rate that peaked @ <6%.
When Brailsford moved on, I wondered if the performance might drop. Its clearly in the DNA of the whole team, however.
http://bit.ly/2b0QF59
He decided a few years ago that he actually wanted to be part of the game, rather than just a bettor. He is really well known in the NBA world, and applied to a number of the teams for a position assisting with the data analysis etc, and he was truly shocked how bad their methods were. He described the sort of analysis they were doing were things he had moved well past 5+ years ago.
Despite willing to take a pay cut, they passed on hiring him, because they didn't believed some of the things he talked about were valid analysis of the game. He actually proved via analysis there were bent refs in the NBA, when the teams had no idea at all there was anything dodgy going on.
The problem is we have two measures of inflation which are wildly out of line with each other - is the true rate of inflation 0.6% or 1.9% ?
As for wages going up 2.3% - it's a statistic which does not correspond with my anecdotal evidence but then I'm an older man (in my 50s) and perhaps it's the young who are seeing the greater wage rises. To assume everybody is seeing their wage rise 2.3% is foolish.
I saw a documentary on the Sky TDF team, where they had basically engineered the bike like an F1 car, changing standard materials for expensive alloys and shaving hundredths of a millimetre from the thickness of tubes to save a few grams here and there. All this done with CAD, CFD and wind tunnel testing. The result was that they got a minimum 7kg(?) road bike down to something like 5.5, and could then change the character of the bike with strategically added ballast depending on the stage being run. Straight out of the F1 playbook.
I wonder if this is an enterprise we can turn into a business. We clearly lead the world in it.
There is the guy who owns Brentford also owns a data analysis company, who supposedly does a lot of interesting novel work on this, but he is considered a bit "odd" in the football world.
I'm surprised Mrs May doesn't come up with an outline Brexit plan (Canada Plus) followed by an immediate General Election. It would lead to a huge Conservative majority.
Otherwise, 2020 - when some people are going to be unhappy with whatever Brexit is eventually negotiated, and it is possible we'll be in Article 50 inspire recession - could be very difficult for the Conservative Party.
As almost anyone with a spare brain cell will tell you, employment/unemployment numbers are a notoriously lagging indicator and are fine if you want to know what happened last week but are not much good at forecasting today let alone tomorrow or next week.
Apart from the immediate political impact and consequences, we have yet to begin to see the economic consequences of the LEAVE vote and one hopes that when the Government finally gets its backside into gear, instigates Article 50 and starts the process, we will have a better idea as to the post-EU economic landscape.
If you do your research, you'll find that the clubs are running much more involved data analysis than they let on.
IPSOS Mori provides some solace - UKIP has a hell of a lot of work to do, as well as some serious thinking ahead, if it is to challenge Labour in its heartlands. I remain to be convinced it is capable of either.
Then there's the argument about the baskets used to calculate the rate. It's highly unlikely they'll be representative of an individual's spending patterns. As just one minor example, the ONS have added coffee pods and microwaveable rice to the 2016 basket. I use neither.
https://www.ft.com/content/0ba195cc-608a-11e6-b38c-7b39cbb1138a
"As a case study of total and intended success, of a top-down project going to plan, there is little to match this in the annals of British technocracy.
...
Before the implications for public services seem too plain, conservatives should speak up. Investment galvanised British athletics but so did a pitiless elitism.
...
The read-across to public administration is performance-related pay, not a rise for every teacher, and hospital league tables, not an article of credulous faith that all providers do an equally fabulous job. The state cannot allow for pure meritocracy and outright failure as sport can. It has a duty of universal provision. "
opening 3 paragraphs are a wonderful turn of phrase.
He has demonstrated that he speaks without thinking - again.
I think the economic effects will be patchy. It could be catastrophic for farmers, depending on what happens at the WTO. Bad for them but they only make up a small part of the overall economy. The City of London will be significantly hit, I suspect, but that's highly mobile work anyway. The rest will be marginal investment that drifts elsewhere.
The main problem with Brexit, as I see it, is that it will dominate government and business strategy for the next ten years. It will take years of grief, argument and gruelling effort to salvage as much as possible of the status quo and yet we will end up well short of where we were. That's just nuts.
The figures have absolutely zilch to tell us about Brexit, of course.
Frankly, my personal economic situation has stagnated since 2010 - I can't honestly say I'm much worse off but I'm not much better off. I suspect I am not atypical,
It annoys me that Mrs May claims to be "on my side" just as David Cameron did but neither has done a single thing to help me substantially. I realise she is everyone else's political idol at the moment but I've had enough of her and think she will be a tenth-rate Prime Minister.
Clifford Chance’s investigation has dropped in the middle of August while most people in Westminster are on holiday. It completely exonerates most of the key players in the Tory bullying scandal.
http://order-order.com/2016/08/17/tory-report-clears-feldman-shapps/
Mr Dancer, negotiating with someone is somewhat different from being friendly towards them, as we may be about to find out over Brexit.
I thought about paying up as well to vote against Corbyn - but I couldn't do it. Not for Owen Smith. He's better than Corbyn, but he's still proving pretty bad. Had Hilary Benn or Stella Creasy stood...
EDIT - and I still say that it is a tragedy Jon Cruddas cannot be persuaded to take a leadership role, preferably as leader.
The NHS would have seen many senior staff fired and effectively blackballed for killing patients (MRSA, CDiff and care) and Social Services management would be decimated..
Also, Andrew Neil's been tweeting about a referendum in Italy possibly going wonky for Renzi.
More importantly, I have come up with this reboot mockery line:
Ben Hur 2: Ben Hurder.
https://www.theguardian.com/public-leaders-network/2015/jul/23/rise-nudge-unit-politicians-human-behaviour
Clinton 47 .. Trump 41
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/08/16/yougoveconomist-poll-august-14-16-2016/
What I do think is more generally applicable is the lack of emotional investment and wishful thinking. They're incredibly data-driven.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/othersports/article-3745296/International-Boxing-Association-drops-judges-referees-Rio-Games-reviewing-Olympic-displays-far.html
Dickens sequels
Harder Times.
A tale of THREE Cities.
Dombey and Grandson
The swimming judges needs to face similar action - the open water results were beyond belief.
It was one of the curious features of the economic forecasting that the long-term forecasts were in some ways easier than the short-term forecasts, which depend so much on the length of the political uncertainty. I think that remains the case.
Clinton 50.67 .. Trump 44.19
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/17/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-gains-as-Donald-Trump-slides/2121471394733/
"Labour leadership challenger Owen Smith has suggested the so-called Islamic State could be involved in negotiations with the West in the future."
If Hillary had said this, even Trump would be odds-on for the White House. In these negotiations, what would the West offer? A few teenage girls every year? We'll let you behead a few Christians now and again?
And even dafter, what would IS relent on? They are a death cult, it's convert to their branch of Islam or die.
It's a serious question and a foot in the mouth moment from Smith. Jezza is bonkers, but he'll make hay from this.
Greater Expectations
Big Dorritt
Bleaker House