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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP slips to just 6% with Ipsos MORI as CON moves up 9% to 45%
An amazing phone poll just out sees some dramatic changes. CON up to 45% but probably the most significant is that the leader-troubled UKIP is down to just 6%. This is a phone poll which has a record of chalking up small figures for the purples but this is staggering. The LDs get hit as well as the Tories move forward under the new leader.
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If I'm honest, Labour polling what 3% above what they polled under Ed Milband in 2015 seems a bit of a stretch
He can't even get his 'clarifications' to make sense. Let alone the guff he spouts to get himself into this mess.
But this Owen Smith character represents the worst of the Blairite wing from the Labour party. A principle-less empty suit, who is thick, utterly repellent and has managed to triangulate himself into negotiating with ISIS. What an utter ****.
He has 10,000, but opposition vote very divided.
Basically the Labour leadership contest is between two intellectual pygmies. One of whom is pretending to be a socialist. Oh for the days of giants like Ed Balls.
*oops responded to the wrong post. Sorry for the non sequitur. Let me try down here*
I love Europe. We had a place down in the Ariege for years. Used to be an EMEA account manager to a large conglomerate and travelled all over the place. Wonderful times, great people. Not a fan of the EU though.
Imagine if she waited until 2020, Labour got rid of Corbyn, UKIP found a new relevant angle in relation to Brexit and the Tories lost their majority. It'd be the biggest political blunder in recent times.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-still-has-a-chance-doesnt-he/
Con Gain Brighton Pavilion, Clacton, Barrow, Derbyshire NE, Berwickshire, Norfolk North, Carshalton, Wolv SW;
Lab gain Hallam,
https://t.co/OYLHAnn5v2 https://t.co/7wJOFP747D
CON: 391 (+60)
LAB: 176 (-56)
SNP: 55 (-1)
PC: 4 (+1)
LD: 4 (-4)
GRN: 2 (+1)
UKIP: 0 (-1)
NI: 18 (-)
Draft something up and take it to the electorate in October to be rubber-stamped once Corbyn has been crowned.
Landslide time. Corbyn would probably then hang on after the defeat as his supporters can blame the plotters in the PLP and not his inherent unelectability. Cue more deselections and reprisals.
Probably the best chance to finish the Labour party since Ramsay MacDonald.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ab_Urbe_Condita_Libri_(Livy)
They must have been briefed that it was looking good for team GB in the run up to the Olympics as well as the potential for a summer of terror in Europe.
Just think, the June 23rd referendum was probably the best result the REMAINERS could have hoped for and they still lost.
If it was held again it would be a much higher vote for Leave.
That's how bad Owen Smith has been today.
But even if it is wrong in the detail what is clear that Farron is completely failing to make anything of the fact that Labour is being led by an incompetent buffoon who the vast majority of Labour MPs cannot support. Think what Charlie Kennedy, Paddy or even David Steel (for our older readers) would have done with such an opportunity. And he is nowhere.
As for May, well she is yet to be tested or indeed to make any material decisions.
Was that your joke?
Edit: I don't 100% understand your comment.
Maybe target Labour in the north but they might need to rebrand and realign the party to provide a decent alternative. Lib Dems I can see coming back one day so they might find it even more difficult to get a foothold.
Or it could just be the case of job done and the party more or less folds.
' The best account of the fall of the Republic is of course Livy's.
Those pesky Gracchi brothers '
Wikipedia:
' Books 46 to 142 are all lost:
Books 46–70 – The period from 167 to the outbreak of the Social War in 91 BC.
Books 71–90 – The civil wars between Marius and Sulla, to the death of Sulla in 78 BC.
Books 91–108 – From 78 BC through the end of the Gallic War, in 50 BC.
Books 109–116 – From the Civil War to the death of Caesar (49–44 BC).
Books 117-133 – The wars of the triumvirs down to the death of Antonius (44–30 BC).
Books 134-142 – The rule of Augustus down to the death of Drusus (9 BC). '
Are you mistaking Livy for Plutarch perhaps ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3744803/Well-know-Jeremy-Corbyn-snaps-Victoria-Derbyshire-BBC-debate-tells-atmosphere-Labour-toxic.html
Probably too busy cheering for Venezuela...
'The amount of times that Laura kicked up a fuss on hills because dad and I were dropping her [and she said], "if you don't slow down I'm going to ring mum, she can come and pick me up".
'And I think back to them moments and I think how on earth was she the one that made it to be Olympic champion you know.'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3744916/She-s-not-worked-harder-Olympic-winner-Laura-Trott-s-sister-gets-called-bitter-jealous-TV-interview-quadruple-gold-success.html
@LauraTrott31: To me I am just her sister! I am not a 'hero' a 'celebrity'.. Shes been there for me through thick and thin!! She was my idol growing up..
@LauraTrott31: Yes she was working while I raced! I'm sure a lot of people who care about me were? I love my sister to the moon, so all u nasty people #shh
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-36941269
Oh....
Hold on...just going to get them off the shelves.
*pause*
OK. Plenty about (Sempronius) Gracchus in bks 38-42 plus the fragments (Livy XIV in Loeb).
Perhaps I'm not going mad/doing a Leadsom after all!!
Yes I remember, indeed I may have created this username to mildly troll him but never got round to it. Can't be changed now though I don't think.
Anyway I think tim was probably right about Osborne in the end. I now cannot stand the man.
My reading of the fall of the Republic, in the absence of any (including Livy's save the fragments) account is that the reforms instituted or attempted by the Gracchi brothers so destabilised the status quo (!) that when Rome expanded to the extent it did the following century, there was an avenue or precedent for the restless masses to try to assert themselves.
Rome had come a long way from being a farmer/warrior society and there was a large, workless class who wanted power or a say in it. It was their presence and influence and actions that eventually brought the Republic down and heralded in the Empire.
Hence when I blame the Gracchi brothers for the end of the Republic, I mean their legacy for when the time was right.
OK glad I got that cleared up. That from memory of a few years ago!!!
12%, 13%, 23%
It was the failure of the Gracchi which led to the catastrophic mix of extreme wealth divides / proletarian poor / political demagogues / ambitious generals of the last century of the Republic.
"Trotskyism is a tool of the capitalists ... Leninism is a weapon for the workers!"
And yes, from Marius down and of course culminating in the triumvirates, there was exploitation by the demagogues but in the end, they were overwhelmed by the huge number of unbiddable proles.
I am not looking for straws anywhere but for two consecutive months Mori has come up with figures which are scarcely credible. Whilst the Tory lead might be roughly correct I don't see them as being on 45% . UKIP are not on 6% - much as I wish they were. Labour are not on 34%.
Remainers' view (well mine at least) was that we would emerge with a less good deal than the one we had with the EU but that few will notice, like putting 10p on the price of a pint.
We understand, however, that this intangible diminution of wealth is deemed by Leavers to be a price worth paying for all the sovereignty we get in return. Though we can't quite see it ourselves.
Few of us (at least here on PB, although maybe there were exceptions) said it would be a disaster.
Had the result been 52-48% Remain, I think there would have been far more infighting in Conservative ranks.
Can't see whether the Olympics represent a boost or a hindrance to the economy, I know I've done less work than usual for the past fortnight!
An 11% Con lead represents a swing from Lab to Con of 2.2% compared with May 2015 which would cost Labour 15 seats - without allowing for any incumbency bonus for those MPs first elected last year.
For the Leavers, some of us admitted the short- to medium-term hit leaving the EU would entail, but it was not just sovereignty and control that made it worthwhile for us - it was the belief that the exercise of that sovereignty and control in a manner different from the EU's would lead to a better longer-term prospect for us.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/16/why-do-pro-eu-academics-feel-so-entitled-to-everyones-money/
UKIP clearly hit by the Moustache Effect.
Australia in particular may move to an eight year cycle with four yearly performance reviews which is the same as here. The funding is what matters for them, they spend AUD 370m on their four year programme vs £300m for ours and we have significantly more success than they do. Additionally their programme is funded out of general taxation rather than lottery funding which is earmarked for arts and sports already. There is a lot of anger that the government is funding athletes who failed to perform in 2012 and then failed again just now, their cycling and rowing teams are under huge scrutiny right now.
The UK Sport funding system has got to be the single most successful sports management change in the world. The hate and respect it generates in equal measure is unbelievable sometimes.
That would also mean that if Labour got elected at some stage, then those who said the economy wouldn't thrive under Labour would also have to be quiet.
I think that the guy who wrote 'dick' had it about right.
(seriously, the UK is a NET contributor to EU coffers)