A question: given that the number of people eligible to participate in such meetings increased by roughly 50% on Monday, were all those newly eligible given notice of the meetings, let alone adequate required notice?
A second question: given that previous nominations have been made by excluding members the High Court has now said can participate in the election, are all those previous nominations invalid?
And a third: What on earth happens if on Friday the Appeal Court takes us back to square one? Other than CLP Secretaries jumping out of the window at the sheer administrative chaos of it all.
No, we discussed this here a coupla days ago. The meetings have no actual power and the nominations have no legal efect anyway - they are merely a statement of opinion by the CLP members who are present at the time. If the qualifying rules for participation change, people can duly note that and draw whatever conclusions they wish. But basically they are just small-sample CLP opinion polls, which IMO won't change many votes.
Is it 50%, by the way? Isn't it more than 20%? 100ishK declared valid (minus those who've paid £25 and are in anyway) out of 500-oddK?
"They bet on the wrong horse"? Well, it'll do, but for the full 80's action movie, you have to stand back, fire the gun, then say something like "It's been revoked", or "Consider dat uh divorce!".... "
I did. I am about £10 000 up in my ISA and SIPP. I dumped my shares most vulnerable to Brexit such as the housebuilders, shifted my investments to shares earning in forex and am sitting pretty. The interest rate cut and QE will push the values of these assets up further over the next year, at least as measured in Sterling.
With the extra £350 million per week for the NHS and a secure job for myself, life is pretty good for foxy!
What's your prediction for GBP/USD for Decenber 31st 2016? I've just opened a UK USD account and I'm wondering how much to put in it.
On an investment timeframe the more relevant question is where we will be in 2020. Big currency-related gains often turn out to be transitory, as generally currencies return to some sort of mean over time. But assuming 2020 is probably around the time we will actually be leaving, it seems more likely that the change in the valuation of the £ is a step change that won't be reversed in a hurry. On that basis the returns from overseas investment (which effectively includes a lot of the FTSE) are locked in for the medium term. Happy news for investors - providing they are not planning on taking many foreign holidays any time soon. Devon and the Isle of Wight are lovely at this time of year!
The worry is that when *everyone* is predicting a particular currency trend, it often turns out that the opposite happens.
Nobody still here, probably, but just to point out yet another medal stolen from us by a Russian drug cheat. I'm hoping they get removed and the medals given to their rightful owners sooner rather than later. Physically shoving them off the podium would make for good television, I think.
Nobody still here, probably, but just to point out yet another medal stolen from us by a Russian drug cheat. I'm hoping they get removed and the medals given to their rightful owners sooner rather than later. Physically shoving them off the podium would make for good television, I think.
Nobody still here, probably, but just to point out yet another medal stolen from us by a Russian drug cheat. I'm hoping they get removed and the medals given to their rightful owners sooner rather than later. Physically shoving them off the podium would make for good television, I think.
PB Tories are always lurking in the shadows.....
I thought Corbynistas were the nocturnal vampires here (foolishly let in by their MPs lending their votes to get him on the ballot)!
Batley and Spen Galloway and West Dumfries Dumfriesshire Mitcham and Morden Inverness & Nairn: 22 to 7 Greenock and Inverclyde Uddingston and Bellshill Rutherglen Clydesdale
Corbyn:
Barrow and Furness: 100 to 36 Bolton West Derbyshire Dales Edinburgh Central, 43 to 24 Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale Bradford East 49 to 5 Bolton NE Sefton Central 107 to 44 Torbay Glasgow Soutshide Aberdeen Donside: 13 to 4 North Shropshire Midlothian North Tottenham Sherwood 52 to 12 Gloucester 80 to 23 Northampton North Northampton South Dundee East Dundee West Stalybridge and Hyde Clydebank and Milngavie
Thanks as ever @AndreaParma_82. Woodcock in Barrow looks like a dead man walking.
(OT) Freddie Woodward is a design student at the University of Loughborough. Freddie Woodward is an extremely gorgeous diver who is currently at his first Olympic Games. Two years ago, when Freddie Woodward first appeared at the Commonwealth Games, Freddie Woodward tweeted: "Since Freddie Woodward (the diver) was on TV yesterday, I'v had 34 new Instagram followers.. you silly, hormonal 16 year olds.. ".
Now, Freddie Woodward has 4,062 Twitter followers and Freddie Woodward has 287. It will be interesting to see how many new followers they each get next week when the men do the individual diving competitions.
I regard the EU as fundamentally a second order matter. Leaving is a lunatic distraction, but it will pass (albeit that as a nation we will probably be substantially poorer as a result).
But the manner of Leave's victory is one which the nation will not recover from morally for many years. Every form of minority will now become fair game for populists to vilify. Because the referendum has shown that such a strategy can work.
I have to agree with this. Leave ran an astonishingly dishonest campaign. Remain tended to exaggeration but stayed away from the outright lies of their opponents
£4300.
Punishment budget.
As conjecture in a Treasury report it is what it is. Actually I think a 6% relative contraction by 2030 is very plausible. We have a 2% contraction pretty much nailed on in the next two years and even that makes optimistic assumptions. Mr Osborne shouldn't have presented it as a headline and a statement of fact in a poster, without making it clear it was conjecture
It wasn't even conjecture it was an outright barefaced lie.
The conjecture was a 6% fall in GDP between the scenarios. But how did we get the £4300 figure when a 6% fall in family income between the figures would be considerably less?
Family income is a fraction of total GDP. Dividing GDP by number of families was about unheard.of fabrication.
The presentation in the Treasury report was fine. A figure taken from the report and used out of context on a headline without a "could be" wasn't fine.
While there are problems with GDP as a measure of wealth there are reasons why it is used for standardised comparison. Dividing GDP by the number of families in the UK is an acceptable thing to do, You might argue there are more meaningful measures, but it isn't dishonest. Brexit under that scenario would result in real reductions in wealth compared with staying in the UK.
I regard the EU as fundamentally a second order matter. Leaving is a lunatic distraction, but it will pass (albeit that as a nation we will probably be substantially poorer as a result).
But the manner of Leave's victory is one which the nation will not recover from morally for many years. Every form of minority will now become fair game for populists to vilify. Because the referendum has shown that such a strategy can work.
I have to agree with this. Leave ran an astonishingly dishonest campaign. Remain tended to exaggeration but stayed away from the outright lies of their opponents
£4300.
Punishment budget.
As conjecture in a Treasury report it is what it is. Actually I think a 6% relative contraction by 2030 is very plausible. We have a 2% contraction pretty much nailed on in the next two years and even that makes optimistic assumptions. Mr Osborne shouldn't have presented it as a headline and a statement of fact in a poster, without making it clear it was conjecture
It wasn't even conjecture it was an outright barefaced lie.
The conjecture was a 6% fall in GDP between the scenarios. But how did we get the £4300 figure when a 6% fall in family income between the figures would be considerably less?
Family income is a fraction of total GDP. Dividing GDP by number of families was about unheard.of fabrication.
The presentation in the Treasury report was fine. A figure taken from the report and used out of context on a headline without a "could be" wasn't fine.
While there are problems with GDP as a measure of wealth there are reasons why it is used for standardised comparison. Dividing GDP by the number of families in the UK is an acceptable thing to do, You might argue there are more meaningful measures, but it isn't dishonest. Brexit under that scenario would result in real reductions in wealth compared with staying in the UK.
But not compared with now, as they pretended.
You can divide any number by any other number (well, as long as the second number isn't zero). That doesn't mean that the result you get has any meaning. And regardless of what the Treasury said, the Remain campaign came up with an outright lie:
Returning to the subject of sharks.....The Greenland Shark - which we discovered is the slowest of all sharks and one which human swimmers could outrun - also has another fascinating snippet. No, not that it is the longest lived of vertebrates at up to 400. No - it is that it reaches sexual maturity at 150. Jeez. Imagine having a pre-puberty "teen" Greenland Shark moping around the house for decades....
(But LibDems, fear not - Ming the Clam still holds the longevity record for the spineless, at 507.....)
I think we have discovered that Worcester Woman wears leopard-print kitten heels....
To be fair I recall Ombersley has a choice of (genuine) Tudor pubs and nothing so squalid as an off licence in the High St but a "wine merchant ". It's the Archers made flesh. The mere sight of it would make a Labour candidate weep let alone a Jezzanaut looking at an alternative planet.
I regard the EU as fundamentally a second order matter. Leaving is a lunatic distraction, but it will pass (albeit that as a nation we will probably be substantially poorer as a result).
But the manner of Leave's victory is one which the nation will not recover from morally for many years. Every form of minority will now become fair game for populists to vilify. Because the referendum has shown that such a strategy can work.
I have to agree with this. Leave ran an astonishingly dishonest campaign. Remain tended to exaggeration but stayed away from the outright lies of their opponents
£4300.
Punishment budget.
As conjecture in a Treasury report it is what it is. Actually I think a 6% relative contraction by 2030 is very plausible. We have a 2% contraction pretty much nailed on in the next two years and even that makes optimistic assumptions. Mr Osborne shouldn't have presented it as a headline and a statement of fact in a poster, without making it clear it was conjecture
The presentation was dreadful. You're one of the first people I've seen use it correctly - a shortfall rather than an absolute contraction. The IFS plumped for a 4% shortfall if its WTO, 1.8% (IIRC) if it's a CETA-like FTA or 2.1% for EEA.
There are two issues with this. Firstly, forgone wealth doesn't have the same impact as lost wealth. I hope that's obvious. Secondly, it's hard to sell a reduction in trend growth by 0.4% (Treasury) to 0.1% (FTA) as a huge deal to ordinary folk.
The reason for that is, I hope, also obvious. The differences in regional wealth are so large, that 6% over 14 years is literally noise. London has 240% higher GDP/capita than Wales.
The fact that WTO would devastate certain sectors of the UK economy is much more powerful, but was never deployed.
Relative comparisons with the base case are the only sensible way of doing it, especially given a choice between a change or the base case. But it does bring up an important point. The economic environment is relatively benign for Brexit. Because we will forgo post credit crunch growth that the test of the world is experiencing we may avoid actual recession, at least initially. Imagine what it would have been like if we had voted to leave the EU in 2009 rather than 2016.
I agree with your other points. Although I think leaving the EU is a big mistake, it is easy to overstate the direct economic consequences of doing so. Picking up on your point about the WTO, farmers , who mostly voted Leave, don't know what's going to hit them.
I think we have discovered that Worcester Woman wears leopard-print kitten heels....
Progress for the LDs too.
That is the slenderest of straws to grasp, when your opponent gets 63% of votes cast.....
After five years when results crashed almost without exception increases in votes in any circumstances are a cause for satisfaction! Does look like a “somewhat” right wing ward!
I think we have discovered that Worcester Woman wears leopard-print kitten heels....
Progress for the LDs too.
That is the slenderest of straws to grasp, when your opponent gets 63% of votes cast.....
After five years when results crashed almost without exception increases in votes in any circumstances are a cause for satisfaction! Does look like a “somewhat” right wing ward!
If you are taking comfort from an increase in your vote when your primary opponent increases their vote by a further 5% more - then you really have been in a very dark place!
I think we have discovered that Worcester Woman wears leopard-print kitten heels....
Progress for the LDs too.
That is the slenderest of straws to grasp, when your opponent gets 63% of votes cast.....
After five years when results crashed almost without exception increases in votes in any circumstances are a cause for satisfaction! Does look like a “somewhat” right wing ward!
If you are taking comfort from an increase in your vote when your primary opponent increases their vote by a further 5% more - then you really have been in a very dark place!
Fair comment, that ward wasn’t as good as most others this year!
Watching Faisal Islam's Out and Proud about Brexit.
It's good, but it's the same lazy narrative. The white working class notherners swang it. Did they??
Arguably they were bound to vote OUT: nothing to lose.
And if it was just them OUT would have lost by Nabavi's 70/30
What swang it was people like ME; affluent southerners, with money to lose, who still voted OUT. It would be nice if some journalist eventually interviewed the 43% of AB professionals, or the majority of southerners, who voted OUT...
The South did vote Leave if you take the region as a whole but London voted Remain by a big margin and the South East only voted Leave by 51% to 49%, it was the Midlands, the East, Yorkshire and the North East which had the biggest margins for Leave and which won it for Brexit
It's easier to say England voted Leave. It was only London, which has relatively few Englishmen in it, that voted otherwise.
There are at least 4-5 million Englishmen in London (even accounting for the high foreign born population) which is more than the entire population of Wales.
I think we have discovered that Worcester Woman wears leopard-print kitten heels....
Progress for the LDs too.
That is the slenderest of straws to grasp, when your opponent gets 63% of votes cast.....
After five years when results crashed almost without exception increases in votes in any circumstances are a cause for satisfaction! Does look like a “somewhat” right wing ward!
If you are taking comfort from an increase in your vote when your primary opponent increases their vote by a further 5% more - then you really have been in a very dark place!
Fair comment, that ward wasn’t as good as most others this year!
The encouraging news for the LibDems was that Labour had fled the field of battle.....
Sir Eric’s report makes a series of recommendations to Theresa May, the Prime Minister, and calls for people to require identification when they are voting and for police cordons around polling stations to prevent intimidation.
He also calls for officials at polling stations to be banned from speaking any language other than English and says that it should be made a criminal offense to attempt to influence someone to vote for a candidate because of their religion.
Unionist votes swing directly to Con. Lib Dems on the ropes.
No tactical Unionist voting, are Labour even trying to get Tory votes?
Obviously there was tactical Unionist voting otherwise Labour wouldn't have won the seat in the end, would they?
Agreed, but interesting that SNP couldn't get party faithful out to back Nicola Sturgeon's Dad in greater numbers in her home town. Sturgeon also turned out to campaign for her Dad too.
Unlike the Tories the SNP supporters are not arse licking forelock tugging numpties. They vote for who they want. Given that this was until a few years ago about 80% Labour I would suggest it is rather a good result.
Mr. Rog was amused to see on the Sky papers the Observer leader-writer and ex-Miliband aid who said we shouldn't be afraid of tackling this sort of thing which happens largely in Muslim/Pakistani/Bangladeshi communities, then said using English only was taking it too far.
I think we have discovered that Worcester Woman wears leopard-print kitten heels....
Progress for the LDs too.
That is the slenderest of straws to grasp, when your opponent gets 63% of votes cast.....
After five years when results crashed almost without exception increases in votes in any circumstances are a cause for satisfaction! Does look like a “somewhat” right wing ward!
If you are taking comfort from an increase in your vote when your primary opponent increases their vote by a further 5% more - then you really have been in a very dark place!
Moving in to become the principal opposition to the Tories across Shire England is all part of the plan, before the next step up.
Sir Eric’s report makes a series of recommendations to Theresa May, the Prime Minister, and calls for people to require identification when they are voting and for police cordons around polling stations to prevent intimidation.
He also calls for officials at polling stations to be banned from speaking any language other than English and says that it should be made a criminal offense to attempt to influence someone to vote for a candidate because of their religion.
Finally!
It's somehow a bit sad not to do it on trust and tradition by just giving your name and address, but it's hard to disagree with that, particularly showing some ID.
Watching Faisal Islam's Out and Proud about Brexit.
It's good, but it's the same lazy narrative. The white working class notherners swang it. Did they??
Arguably they were bound to vote OUT: nothing to lose.
And if it was just them OUT would have lost by Nabavi's 70/30
What swang it was people like ME; affluent southerners, with money to lose, who still voted OUT. It would be nice if some journalist eventually interviewed the 43% of AB professionals, or the majority of southerners, who voted OUT...
The South did vote Leave if you take the region as a whole but London voted Remain by a big margin and the South East only voted Leave by 51% to 49%, it was the Midlands, the East, Yorkshire and the North East which had the biggest margins for Leave and which won it for Brexit
It's easier to say England voted Leave. It was only London, which has relatively few Englishmen in it, that voted otherwise.
There are at least 4-5 million Englishmen in London (even accounting for the high foreign born population) which is more than the entire population of Wales.
No women then
And the line-up for the final of the women's 400 metres hurdles includes three Russians, two East Germans, a Pole, a Swede and a Frenchman. (D. Coleman)
Sir Eric’s report makes a series of recommendations to Theresa May, the Prime Minister, and calls for people to require identification when they are voting and for police cordons around polling stations to prevent intimidation.
He also calls for officials at polling stations to be banned from speaking any language other than English and says that it should be made a criminal offense to attempt to influence someone to vote for a candidate because of their religion.
Finally!
It's somehow a bit sad not to do it on trust and tradition by just giving your name and address, but it's hard to disagree with that, particularly showing some ID.
Ever since I started voting I have to say I always thought it rather incredible you didn't. Most things you need a form of ID for...these days normally two forms, with at least one being photo id.
I expect to here wailing about this not being fair & targeting the poor / ethnic groups etc etc etc
Presumably even if the Appeal Court rules the NEC is inviolate and the master of the rules and finds for the Party, with the change in the political make up of the NEC following last weeks elections the NEW N E C can change the rules again. Does the new NEC sit at the next NEC meeting and when is it?. If the vote has to be put off because there is a further appeal then that gives time for the new NEC to amend the rules to allow the 130,00 to vote. Looks like a win win for Corbyn.
Comments
Is it 50%, by the way? Isn't it more than 20%? 100ishK declared valid (minus those who've paid £25 and are in anyway) out of 500-oddK?
The worry is that when *everyone* is predicting a particular currency trend, it often turns out that the opposite happens.
https://twitter.com/cnnphilippines/status/763879856249589760
Telegraph front page
Tomorrow's Daily Telegraph front page today: ''Blind eye' turned to Muslim vote fraud' https://t.co/JTtzS64Uz2
Now, Freddie Woodward has 4,062 Twitter followers and Freddie Woodward has 287. It will be interesting to see how many new followers they each get next week when the men do the individual diving competitions.
Britain Elects @britainelects 6h6 hours ago
Ombersley (Worcestershire) result:
CON: 63.2% (+15.3)
LDEM: 14.8% (+9.7)
UKIP: 14.0% (-19.2)
IND: 7.9% (+7.9)
Lab and Grn didn't stand.
While there are problems with GDP as a measure of wealth there are reasons why it is used for standardised comparison. Dividing GDP by the number of families in the UK is an acceptable thing to do, You might argue there are more meaningful measures, but it isn't dishonest. Brexit under that scenario would result in real reductions in wealth compared with staying in the UK.
You can divide any number by any other number (well, as long as the second number isn't zero). That doesn't mean that the result you get has any meaning. And regardless of what the Treasury said, the Remain campaign came up with an outright lie:
(But LibDems, fear not - Ming the Clam still holds the longevity record for the spineless, at 507.....)
27 years. Hard to believe.
I agree with your other points. Although I think leaving the EU is a big mistake, it is easy to overstate the direct economic consequences of doing so. Picking up on your point about the WTO, farmers , who mostly voted Leave, don't know what's going to hit them.
Sir Eric’s report makes a series of recommendations to Theresa May, the Prime Minister, and calls for people to require identification when they are voting and for police cordons around polling stations to prevent intimidation.
He also calls for officials at polling stations to be banned from speaking any language other than English and says that it should be made a criminal offense to attempt to influence someone to vote for a candidate because of their religion.
Finally!
Mr. Rog was amused to see on the Sky papers the Observer leader-writer and ex-Miliband aid who said we shouldn't be afraid of tackling this sort of thing which happens largely in Muslim/Pakistani/Bangladeshi communities, then said using English only was taking it too far.
*sighs*
Incidentally, I prefer Sir Edric's report. Less electioneering, more frisky elves:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Edric-Hero-Hornska-Book-ebook/dp/B01DOSP9ZK/
New thread btw.
'Telegraph front page
Tomorrow's Daily Telegraph front page today: ''Blind eye' turned to Muslim vote fraud' https://t.co/JTtzS64Uz2'
Will there be a news cycle this year that's not about Muslims ?
I expect to here wailing about this not being fair & targeting the poor / ethnic groups etc etc etc
http://m.slashdot.org/story/314861