Is tonight one of those nights for loony Leavers to frot themselves blind as they conveniently forget that the referendum was fought and won on keeping out foreigners?
In which case, I'll check out again.
I've cut you some slack because of your sad personal news - and I hope your partner continues to improve - but I'm finding it very hard to rein it in. Hmpft.
Do us a favour, shut up, go tend your Hungarian garden. Everything you've said since the vote has been embarrassing. Shush.
Remain refuseniks should just keep their powder dry. The economy will likely contract in Q3. They can have their day in the sun at that point.
Muslims aren't more than 30% in any council area outside Tower Hamlets and Newham so their vote was not dispositive. Notwithstanding that, the Leave vote in areas with over 16% Muslims was above what would be expected controlling for some other demographic factors (except in Oldham). Two possibilities: Muslims voters didn't turn out (turnout was unusually low in these areas); non-Muslim voters living near lots of Muslims are more likely to vote Leave (but what does the EU bloody well have to do with Pakistanis?).
More generally, isn't it strange that Tories voted Leave, but Remain won in many of their tribal heartland areas. Labour voted Remain, but Leave won in many of their tribal heartland areas.
I doubt Scotland is intrinsically more Europhile than the rest of the UK. And Northern Ireland largely divided on sectarian lines, with a non-aligned middle class carrying it for Remain.
Incidentally, Moray almost went Leave - Remain only carried it by a whisker. I really wish it had gone Leave to sour Sturgeon's EU milk.
62% / 38% for Remain is pretty decisive. Scotland was never likely to vote Leave. Unlike the UK as a whole. 48% / 52% could easily have swung the other way. That's why there's not a lot to be said about why people voted for Brexit. We always knew it would be close.
Watching Faisal Islam's Out and Proud about Brexit.
It's good, but it's the same lazy narrative. The white working class notherners swang it. Did they??
Arguably they were bound to vote OUT: nothing to lose.
And if it was just them OUT would have lost by Nabavi's 70/30
What srners, who voted OUT...
The S won it for Brexit
Yes, rn England.
It.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sovereignty but also even in the south immigration was an issue too. That said whole swathes of SouthEast England did vote Remain, from Tunbridge Wells to Guildford and West Oxfordshire to Epsom
This map of voting is fascinating
Lol @ Bradford voting Leave.
SeanT is right that the map is fascinating. Basically because it's a good proxy for the UK socio-cultural divide.
For example, the hinterland of Cambridge, as well as Cambridge, being 'Remainy'. Plus Bristol, Exeter, Bath, Brighton, Norwich, Oxford, Cardiff and Manchester.
All places that are very left-liberal, yuppie, new worldy, hippy, internationalist, and middle class/graduatey.
I fear Winchester may be going that way too.
A good chunk of the commuter belt too - like Tunbridge Wells, Guildford, Thames Valley and St. Albans. But not all, and not everywhere. Probably status quo voters.
But, anyway, I've never felt as estranged from my own peer group as I have after this vote.
Basically areas with lots of graduates and which were reasonably well off voted Remain, areas with lots of working class voters and which were have not done so well out of the country's prosperity voted Leave
No. This is exceptionally lazy.
43% of ABs voted OUT: almost half. Until this is realised there will be no worthy analysis of the most important vote in recent UK history.
I expect PB to do, in time, what the mainstream media is failing to do.
Watching Faisal Islam's Out and Proud about Brexit.
It's good, but it's the same lazy narrative. The white working class notherners swang it. Did they??
Arguably they were bound to vote OUT: nothing to lose.
And if it was just them OUT would have lost by Nabavi's 70/30
What swang it was people like ME; affluent southerners, with money to lose, who still voted OUT. It would be nice if some journalist eventually interviewed the 43% of AB professionals, or the majority of southerners, who voted OUT...
The South did vote Leave if you take the region as a whole but London voted Remain by a big margin and the South East only voted Leave by 51% to 49%, it was the Midlands, the East, Yorkshire and the North East which had the biggest margins for Leave and which won it for Brexit
Yes, but the South voted OUT. Which is quite astonishing and counterfactual if all you watch is these endless TV documentaries saying it was all down to WWC northerners.
It wasn't. The vote was won, as most votes are in the UK, by its most populous region: southern England.
It.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sover
This map of voting is fascinating
Lol @ Bradford voting Leave.
SeanT
Basically areas with lots of graduates and which were reasonably well off voted Remain, areas with lots of working class voters and which were have not done so well out of the country's prosperity voted Leave
Indeed there was a far greater class divide in the EU referendum than there was at the last general election.
But I think that's an oversimplification that papers over the cracks of a lot of nuances, and draws the wrong conclusions.
Too easy to fall into a trap of wealthy/educated = Remain, and poor/stupid = Leave.
Which many people do fall into, willingly, of course. Particularly Remainers.
I was struck by the TUC's 35-64 ABC1 split which was 51:46 to Remain. These are the people with the most to lose - mortgages, kids at their most expensive, careers peaking. I would have expected them to break much more heavily for Remain.
the woman who led the rotherham sex gangs is appointed head of the child abuse inquiry- i'm taking bets on how long she lasts. odds on she doesn't last till September
Watching Faisal Islam's Out and Proud about Brexit.
It's good, but it's the same lazy narrative. The white working class notherners swang it. Did they??
Arguably they were bound to vote OUT: nothing to lose.
And if it was just them OUT would have lost by Nabavi's 70/30
What srners, who voted OUT...
The S won it for Brexit
Yes, rn England.
It.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sovereignty but also even in the south immigration was an issue too. That said whole swathes of SouthEast England did vote Remain, from Tunbridge Wells to Guildford and West Oxfordshire to Epsom
This map of voting is fascinating
Lol @ Bradford voting Leave.
SeanT is right that the map is fascinating. Basically because it's a good proxy for the UK socio-cultural divide.
For example, the hinterland of Cambridge, as well as Cambridge, being 'Remainy'. Plus Bristol, Exeter, Bath, Brighton, Norwich, Oxford, Cardiff and Manchester.
All places that are very left-liberal, yuppie, new worldy, hippy, internationalist, and middle class/graduatey.
I fear Winchester may be going that way too.
A good chunk of the commuter belt too - like Tunbridge Wells, Guildford, Thames Valley and St. Albans. But not all, and not everywhere. Probably status quo voters.
But, anyway, I've never felt as estranged from my own peer group as I have after this vote.
Basically areas with lots of graduates and which were reasonably well off voted Remain, areas with lots of working class voters and which were have not done so well out of the country's prosperity voted Leave
No. This is exceptionally lazy.
43% of ABs voted OUT: almost half. Until this is realised there will be no worthy analysis of the most important vote in recent UK history.
I expect PB to do, in time, what the mainstream media is failing to do.
Equally importantly 35% of C2DE over 65's voted for Remain.
All classes, age groups and regions split. There were trends but no fixed rules. Leicester voted Remain, Harborough out and Rutland almost exactly 50/50 for example.
The districts which were 51.9% were Basingstoke & Deane and Test Valley - both in Hampshire.
Basingstoke is interesting -- it seems to be mildly trending away from the Tories compared to a lot of the South East, but there doesn't seem any obvious reason for it.
Watching Faisal Islam's Out and Proud about Brexit.
It's good, but it's the same lazy narrative. The white working class notherners swang it. Did they??
Arguably they were bound to vote OUT: nothing to lose.
And if it was just them OUT would have lost by Nabavi's 70/30
What srners, who voted OUT...
The S won it for Brexit
Yes, rn England.
It.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sovereignty but also even in the south immigration was an issue too. That said whole swathes of SouthEast England did vote Remain, from Tunbridge Wells to Guildford and West Oxfordshire to Epsom
This map of voting is fascinating
Lol @ Bradford voting Leave.
SeanT is right that the map is fascinating. Basically because it's a good proxy for the UK socio-cultural divide.
For example, the hinterland of Cambridge, as well as Cambridge, being 'Remainy'. Plus Bristol, Exeter, Bath, Brighton, Norwich, Oxford, Cardiff and Manchester.
All places that are very left-liberal, yuppie, new worldy, hippy, internationalist, and middle class/graduatey.
I fear Winchester may be going that way too.
A good chunk of the commuter belt too - like Tunbridge Wells, Guildford, Thames Valley and St. Albans. But not all, and not everywhere. Probably status quo voters.
But, anyway, I've never felt as estranged from my own peer group as I have after this vote.
Basically areas with lots of graduates and which were reasonably well off voted Remain, areas with lots of working class voters and which were have not done so well out of the country's prosperity voted Leave
No. This is exceptionally lazy.
43% of ABs voted OUT: almost half. Until this is realised there will be no worthy analysis of the most important vote in recent UK history.
I expect PB to do, in time, what the mainstream media is failing to do.
Watching Faisal Islam's Out and Proud about Brexit.
It's good, but it's the same lazy narrative. The white working class notherners swang it. Did they??
Arguably they were bound to vote OUT: nothing to lose.
And if it was just them OUT would have lost by Nabavi's 70/30
What swang it was people like ME; affluent southerners, with money to lose, who still voted OUT. It would be nice if some journalist eventually interviewed the 43% of AB professionals, or the majority of southerners, who voted OUT...
The South did vote Leave if you take the region as a whole but London voted Remain by a big margin and the South East only voted Leave by 51% to 49%, it was the Midlands, the East, Yorkshire and the North East which had the biggest margins for Leave and which won it for Brexit
Yes, but the South voted OUT. Which is quite astonishing and counterfactual if all you watch is these endless TV documentaries saying it was all down to WWC northerners.
It wasn't. The vote was won, as most votes are in the UK, by its most populous region: southern England.
It.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sover
This map of voting is fascinating
Lol @ Bradford voting Leave.
SeanT
Basically areas
But I think that's an oversimplification that papers over the cracks of a lot of nuances, and draws the wrong conclusions.
Too easy to fall into a trap of wealthy/educated = Remain, and poor/stupid = Leave.
Which many people do fall into, willingly, of course. Particularly Remainers.
Precisely, It salves the wounds of hurt REMAINIACS - "oh it was just the old and stupid people. why did we give them the vote" etc. They can feel young and posh and progressive.
But the facts are other.
Tunbridge Wells is full of old and wealthy people and not what springs to mind when you think of progressive, it voted strongly Tory at the general election but Remain at the Referendum. It was the posh bit which was decisive. Indeed, in Kent it was less posh bits like Medway and Thanet which helped tilt the county and the southeast to Leave because of the size of the Leave margin there
Is tonight one of those nights for loony Leavers to frot themselves blind as they conveniently forget that the referendum was fought and won on keeping out foreigners?
In which case, I'll check out again.
I've cut you some slack because of your sad personal news - and I hope your partner continues to improve - but I'm finding it very hard to rein it in. Hmpft.
Do us a favour, shut up, go tend your Hungarian garden. Everything you've said since the vote has been embarrassing. Shush.
Remain refuseniks should just keep their powder dry. The economy will likely contract in Q3. They can have their day in the sun at that point.
I'm content to stick with the morals rather than the economics. To make common cause with and pander to xenophobes is contemptible. That it was successful does not make it less contemptible.
I am not, however, a refusnik. The vote is cast and we just have to make the best of this moral disgrace in a manner consistent with the argument leading up to the vote.
I doubt Scotland is intrinsically more Europhile than the rest of the UK. And Northern Ireland largely divided on sectarian lines, with a non-aligned middle class carrying it for Remain.
Incidentally, Moray almost went Leave - Remain only carried it by a whisker. I really wish it had gone Leave to sour Sturgeon's EU milk.
62% / 38% for Remain is pretty decisive. Scotland was never likely to vote Leave. Unlike the UK as a whole. 48% / 52% could easily have swung the other way. That's why there's not a lot to be said about why people voted for Brexit. We always knew it would be close.
I think it's more a symptom of Scotland's continued political divergence from the rest of the UK, rather than europhilia to be honest, and the fact that a lot of unionists knew Sturgeon would use a Leave vote as a crib to pursue a 2nd indyref. So the lesser of two evils.
I doubt the Gibraltarians have any real love for the EU either. But they are absolutely 100% reliant on the financial passport and free movement into Spain in the absence of a massive UK defence economy there anymore.
Is tonight one of those nights for loony Leavers to frot themselves blind as they conveniently forget that the referendum was fought and won on keeping out foreigners?
In which case, I'll check out again.
I've cut you some slack because of your sad personal news - and I hope your partner continues to improve - but I'm finding it very hard to rein it in. Hmpft.
Do us a favour, shut up, go tend your Hungarian garden. Everything you've said since the vote has been embarrassing. Shush.
Time until AM gets the full SeanT Experience? 5...4...3...2...1...
The districts which were 51.9% were Basingstoke & Deane and Test Valley - both in Hampshire.
Basingstoke is interesting -- it seems to be mildly trending away from the Tories compared to a lot of the South East, but there doesn't seem any obvious reason for it.
Basingstoke is not as wealthy as most of the rest of Hampshire
Watching Faisal Islam's Out and Proud about Brexit.
It's good, but it's the same lazy narrative. The white working class notherners swang it. Did they??
Arguably they were bound to vote OUT: nothing to lose.
And if it was just them OUT would have lost by Nabavi's 70/30
What srners, who voted OUT...
The S won it for Brexit
Yes, rn England.
It.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sovereignty but also even in the south immigration was an issue too. That said whole swathes of SouthEast England did vote Remain, from Tunbridge Wells to Guildford and West Oxfordshire to Epsom
This map of voting is fascinating
Lol @ Bradford voting Leave.
SeanT is right that the map is fascinating. Basically because it's a good proxy for the UK socio-cultural divide.
For example, the hinterland of Cambridge, as well as Cambridge, being 'Remainy'. Plus Bristol, Exeter, Bath, Brighton, Norwich, Oxford, Cardiff and Manchester.
All places that are very left-liberal, yuppie, new worldy, hippy, internationalist, and middle class/graduatey.
I fear Winchester may be going that way too.
A good chunk of the commuter belt too - like Tunbridge Wells, Guildford, Thames Valley and St. Albans. But not all, and not everywhere. Probably status quo voters.
But, anyway, I've never felt as estranged from my own peer group as I have after this vote.
Basically areas with lots of graduates and which were reasonably well off voted Remain, areas with lots of working class voters and which were have not done so well out of the country's prosperity voted Leave
No. This is exceptionally lazy.
43% of ABs voted OUT: almost half. Until this is realised there will be no worthy analysis of the most important vote in recent UK history.
I expect PB to do, in time, what the mainstream media is failing to do.
52% of the voters voted OUT. So that means ABs were vastly more REMAIN than the general population.
Is tonight one of those nights for loony Leavers to frot themselves blind as they conveniently forget that the referendum was fought and won on keeping out foreigners?
In which case, I'll check out again.
I've cut you some slack because of your sad personal news - and I hope your partner continues to improve - but I'm finding it very hard to rein it in. Hmpft.
Do us a favour, shut up, go tend your Hungarian garden. Everything you've said since the vote has been embarrassing. Shush.
Remain refuseniks should just keep their powder dry. The economy will likely contract in Q3. They can have their day in the sun at that point.
I'm content to stick with the morals rather than the economics. To make common cause with and pander to xenophobes is contemptible. That it was successful does not make it less contemptible.
I am not, however, a refusnik. The vote is cast and we just have to make the best of this moral disgrace in a manner consistent with the argument leading up to the vote.
Except Leave didn't pander to or make common cause with xenophobes which is why the xenophobes were ostracised and left with Leave.EU while the grown up Leavers went out and won it.
The districts which were 51.9% were Basingstoke & Deane and Test Valley - both in Hampshire.
Basingstoke is interesting -- it seems to be mildly trending away from the Tories compared to a lot of the South East, but there doesn't seem any obvious reason for it.
A couple of poor Tory MPs.
The current MP had to resign from the cabinet in disgrace, and her predecessor defected from the Tories to the DUP and was poorly regarded.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sovereignty but also even in the south immigration was an issue too. That said whole swathes of SouthEast England did vote Remain, from Tunbridge Wells to Guildford and West Oxfordshire to Epsom
This map of voting is fascinating. Generally, richer areas voted REMAIN, but not always.
Some LEAVE votes are intriguingly intense and decisive. North Devon: 57 to 43 LEAVE. Dorset: universally LEAVE. Etc.
SeanT is right that the map is fascinating. Basically because it's a good proxy for the UK socio-cultural divide.
For example, the hinterland of Cambridge, as well as Cambridge, being 'Remainy'. Plus Bristol, Exeter, Bath, Brighton, Norwich, Oxford, Cardiff and Manchester.
All places that are very left-liberal, yuppie, new worldy, hippy, internationalist, and middle class/graduatey.
I fear Winchester may be going that way too.
A good chunk of the commuter belt too - like Tunbridge Wells, Guildford, Thames Valley and St. Albans. But not all, and not everywhere. Probably status quo voters.
But, anyway, I've never felt as estranged from my own peer group as I have after this vote.
Interested to hear if you experienced the same as me, CR. In the days after I was often referred to as 'my only Leaver friend' - I generally corrected that to 'your only winning friend'. But more seriously, people turned to me as a counsellor, reassurer of the future, guide to a Britain my peers no longer understood, rather than as a figure of hate.
I was, a few moaners who were mid house sale (all completed, incidentally) aside, very very impressed with my friends. A few on here are the only people I know who won't accept the result....
Is tonight one of those nights for loony Leavers to frot themselves blind as they conveniently forget that the referendum was fought and won on keeping out foreigners?
In which case, I'll check out again.
I've cut you some slack because of your sad personal news - and I hope your partner continues to improve - but I'm finding it very hard to rein it in. Hmpft.
Do us a favour, shut up, go tend your Hungarian garden. Everything you've said since the vote has been embarrassing. Shush.
Remain refuseniks should just keep their powder dry. The economy will likely contract in Q3. They can have their day in the sun at that point.
I'm content to stick with the morals rather than the economics. To make common cause with and pander to xenophobes is contemptible. That it was successful does not make it less contemptible.
I am not, however, a refusnik. The vote is cast and we just have to make the best of this moral disgrace in a manner consistent with the argument leading up to the vote.
moral disgrace...give it a rest.
My businesses are hugely affected by this decision. But I would never even think of describing it as such.
Muslims aren't more than 30% in any council area outside Tower Hamlets and Newham so their vote was not dispositive. Notwithstanding that, the Leave vote in areas with over 16% Muslims was above what would be expected controlling for some other demographic factors (except in Oldham). Two possibilities: Muslims voters didn't turn out (turnout was unusually low in these areas); non-Muslim voters living near lots of Muslims are more likely to vote Leave (but what does the EU bloody well have to do with Pakistanis?).
More generally, isn't it strange that Tories voted Leave, but Remain won in many of their tribal heartland areas. Labour voted Remain, but Leave won in many of their tribal heartland areas.
"Two possibilities: Muslims voters didn't turn out (turnout was unusually low in these areas); non-Muslim voters living near lots of Muslims are more likely to vote Leave (but what does the EU bloody well have to do with Pakistanis?). "
It's true even in a GE that those areas have lower than average turnout, probably something to do with a sentiment "it's not our country, so why bother".
But a long term depressed local economy can be associated with long term EU membership, add that Cameron was not popular with that community, and also that EU immigration ironically competes with immigrants who already are here.
That's why I have the impression from the results, that muslims outside of London voted differently than those inside London.
Watching Faisal Islam's Out and Proud about Brexit.
I...
Yes, but the South voted OUT. Which is quite astonishing and counterfactual if all you watch is these endless TV documentaries saying it was all down to WWC northerners.
It wasn't. The vote was won, as most votes are in the UK, by its most populous region: southern England.
It.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sover
This map of voting is fascinating
Lol @ Bradford voting Leave.
SeanT
Basically areas with lots of graduates and which were reasonably well off voted Remain, areas with lots of working class voters and which were have not done so well out of the country's prosperity voted Leave
Indeed there was a far greater class divide in the EU referendum than there was at the last general election.
But I think that's an oversimplification that papers over the cracks of a lot of nuances, and draws the wrong conclusions.
Too easy to fall into a trap of wealthy/educated = Remain, and poor/stupid = Leave.
Which many people do fall into, willingly, of course. Particularly Remainers.
I was struck by the TUC's 35-64 ABC1 split which was 51:46 to Remain. These are the people with the most to lose - mortgages, kids at their most expensive, careers peaking. I would have expected them to break much more heavily for Remain.
In my experience graduates and post-graduates were more like 25%-30% for Leave. Interestingly, I notice a continuing drift to the socio-cultural Left amongst many of my friends who still live in London. They post all sorts of 38degree, Hopenothate, and Corbynista shit on teh interwebs. Conversely, those who move out of London into the home counties and start families and commuting, don't exhibit this strange intellectual paralysis. They just want a stable economy.
Is tonight one of those nights for loony Leavers to frot themselves blind as they conveniently forget that the referendum was fought and won on keeping out foreigners?
In which case, I'll check out again.
I've cut you some slack because of your sad personal news - and I hope your partner continues to improve - but I'm finding it very hard to rein it in. Hmpft.
Do us a favour, shut up, go tend your Hungarian garden. Everything you've said since the vote has been embarrassing. Shush.
Remain refuseniks should just keep their powder dry. The economy will likely contract in Q3. They can have their day in the sun at that point.
I'm content to stick with the morals rather than the economics. To make common cause with and pander to xenophobes is contemptible. That it was successful does not make it less contemptible.
I am not, however, a refusnik. The vote is cast and we just have to make the best of this moral disgrace in a manner consistent with the argument leading up to the vote.
Except Leave didn't pander to or make common cause with xenophobes which is why the xenophobes were ostracised and left with Leave.EU while the grown up Leavers went out and won it.
Watching Faisal Islam's Out and Proud about Brexit.
...
The Sast which had the biggest margins for Leave and which won it for Brexit
Yes, y its most populous region: southern England.
It.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sover
This map of voting is fascinating
Lol @ Bradford voting Leave.
SeanT
Basically areas with lots of graduates and which were reasonably well off voted Remain, areas with lots of working class voters and which were have not done so well out of the country's prosperity voted Leave
Indeed there was a far greater class divide in the EU referendum than there was at the last general election.
But I think that's an oversimplification that papers over the cracks of a lot of nuances, and draws the wrong conclusions.
Too easy to fall into a trap of wealthy/educated = Remain, and poor/stupid = Leave.
Which many people do fall into, willingly, of course. Particularly Remainers.
I was struck by the TUC's 35-64 ABC1 split which was 51:46 to Remain. These are the people with the most to lose - mortgages, kids at their most expensive, careers peaking. I would have expected them to break much more heavily for Remain.
Quite, I think there was a significant vote on sovereignty by richer, better educated people. Which us being studiously ignored by the media, who want to paint Brexit as a UKIP wwc revolt in the north.
I don't blame journalists for this. It's a neat and colourful narrative - the peasants rebellion! Lots of guys in tatts in Burnley! - as a journalist you always need that angle. But it's not the whole truth, not even near.
Rich or poor, I do not know. But there was a direct correlation between educational attainment and voting Remain. It is a fact that cannot be ignored.
Is tonight one of those nights for loony Leavers to frot themselves blind as they conveniently forget that the referendum was fought and won on keeping out foreigners?
In which case, I'll check out again.
I've cut you some slack because of your sad personal news - and I hope your partner continues to improve - but I'm finding it very hard to rein it in. Hmpft.
Do us a favour, shut up, go tend your Hungarian garden. Everything you've said since the vote has been embarrassing. Shush.
Remain refuseniks should just keep their powder dry. The economy will likely contract in Q3. They can have their day in the sun at that point.
I'm content to stick with the morals rather than the economics. To make common cause with and pander to xenophobes is contemptible. That it was successful does not make it less contemptible.
I am not, however, a refusnik. The vote is cast and we just have to make the best of this moral disgrace in a manner consistent with the argument leading up to the vote.
Except Leave didn't pander to or make common cause with xenophobes which is why the xenophobes were ostracised and left with Leave.EU while the grown up Leavers went out and won it.
Watching Faisal Islam's Out and Proud about Brexit.
It's good, but it's the same lazy narrative. The white working class notherners swang it. Did they??
Arguably they were bound to vote OUT: nothing to lose.
And if it was just them OUT would have lost by Nabavi's 70/30
What srners, who voted OUT...
The S won it for Brexit
Yes, rn England.
It.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sovereignty but also even in the south immigration was an issue too. That said whole swathes of SouthEast England did vote Remain, from Tunbridge Wells to Guildford and West Oxfordshire to Epsom
This map of voting is fascinating
Lol @ Bradford voting Leave.
SeanT is right that the map is fascinating. Basically because it's a good proxy for the UK socio-cultural divide.
For example, the hinterland of Cambridge, as well as Cambridge, being 'Remainy'. Plus Bristol, Exeter, Bath, Brighton, Norwich, Oxford, Cardiff and Manchester.
All places that are very left-liberal, yuppie, new worldy, hippy, internationalist, and middle class/graduatey.
I fear Winchester may be going that way too.
A good chunk of the commuter belt too - like Tunbridge Wells, Guildford, Thames Valley and St. Albans. But not all, and not everywhere. Probably status quo voters.
But, anyway, I've never felt as estranged from my own peer group as I have after this vote.
Basically areas with lots of graduates and which were reasonably well off voted Remain, areas with lots of working class voters and which were have not done so well out of the country's prosperity voted Leave
No. This is exceptionally lazy.
43% of ABs voted OUT: almost half. Until this is realised there will be no worthy analysis of the most important vote in recent UK history.
I expect PB to do, in time, what the mainstream media is failing to do.
There's some research out in the next couple of months, with a sample size of 20,000 which will give us a lot of data on this.
Watching Faisal Islam's Out and Proud about Brexit.
I...
Yes, but the South voted OUT. Which is quite astonishing and counterfactual if all you watch is these endless TV documentaries saying it was all down to WWC northerners.
It wasn't. The vote was won, as most votes are in the UK, by its most populous region: southern England.
It.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sover
This map of voting is fascinating
Lol @ Bradford voting Leave.
SeanT
Basically areas with lots of graduates and which were reasonably well off voted Remain, areas with lots of working class voters and which were have not done so well out of the country's prosperity voted Leave
Indeed there was a far greater class divide in the EU referendum than there was at the last general election.
But I think that's an oversimplification that papers over the cracks of a lot of nuances, and draws the wrong conclusions.
Too easy to fall into a trap of wealthy/educated = Remain, and poor/stupid = Leave.
Which many people do fall into, willingly, of course. Particularly Remainers.
I was struck by the TUC's 35-64 ABC1 split which was 51:46 to Remain. These are the people with the most to lose - mortgages, kids at their most expensive, careers peaking. I would have expected them to break much more heavily for Remain.
In my experience graduates and post-graduates were more like 25%-30% for Leave. Interestingly, I notice a continuing drift to the socio-cultural Left amongst many of my friends who still live in London. They post all sorts of 38degree, Hopenothate, and Corbynista shit on teh interwebs. Conversely, those who move out of London into the home counties and start families and commuting, don't exhibit this strange intellectual paralysis. They just want a stable economy.
London. It's just a totally different world.
Yes, it is the greatest city on Earth ! The greatest people on Earth.
Is tonight one of those nights for loony Leavers to frot themselves blind as they conveniently forget that the referendum was fought and won on keeping out foreigners?
In which case, I'll check out again.
I've cut you some slack because of your sad personal news - and I hope your partner continues to improve - but I'm finding it very hard to rein it in. Hmpft.
Do us a favour, shut up, go tend your Hungarian garden. Everything you've said since the vote has been embarrassing. Shush.
Remain refuseniks should just keep their powder dry. The economy will likely contract in Q3. They can have their day in the sun at that point.
I'm content to stick with the morals rather than the economics. To make common cause with and pander to xenophobes is contemptible. That it was successful does not make it less contemptible.
I am not, however, a refusnik. The vote is cast and we just have to make the best of this moral disgrace in a manner consistent with the argument leading up to the vote.
Presumably you feel any government u-turn is also a moral disgrace, since they have to be committed to whatever they argued in the run up to the election, even if the circumstances are different. It's half witted to suggest people are bound to follow the highly specific course of a campaign not even supported by everyone who adopted the same position, in the same way, and this may stun you apparently, even the MPs elected pushing a manifesto may not all have agreed with everything in that manifesto. It's so much like parody in its half wittedness I cannot accept you don't know it is so.
Muslims aren't more than 30% in any council area outside Tower Hamlets and Newham so their vote was not dispositive. Notwithstanding that, the Leave vote in areas with over 16% Muslims was above what would be expected controlling for some other demographic factors (except in Oldham). Two possibilities: Muslims voters didn't turn out (turnout was unusually low in these areas); non-Muslim voters living near lots of Muslims are more likely to vote Leave (but what does the EU bloody well have to do with Pakistanis?).
More generally, isn't it strange that Tories voted Leave, but Remain won in many of their tribal heartland areas. Labour voted Remain, but Leave won in many of their tribal heartland areas.
Non-Muslim voters in Muslim areas were more likely to vote Leave yes. Working class Tory Harlow voted Leave as did working class Labour Sunderland, middle class Tory Epsom voted Remain as did middle class Labour Cambridge, so again the class theme is there, generally posher Tory and Labour seats were more likely to vote Remain and vice-versa
Is tonight one of those nights for loony Leavers to frot themselves blind as they conveniently forget that the referendum was fought and won on keeping out foreigners?
In which case, I'll check out again.
I've cut you some slack because of your sad personal news - and I hope your partner continues to improve - but I'm finding it very hard to rein it in. Hmpft.
Do us a favour, shut up, go tend your Hungarian garden. Everything you've said since the vote has been embarrassing. Shush.
Remain refuseniks should just keep their powder dry. The economy will likely contract in Q3. They can have their day in the sun at that point.
I'm content to stick with the morals rather than the economics. To make common cause with and pander to xenophobes is contemptible. That it was successful does not make it less contemptible.
I am not, however, a refusnik. The vote is cast and we just have to make the best of this moral disgrace in a manner consistent with the argument leading up to the vote.
Presumably you feel any government u-turn is also a moral disgrace, since they have to be committed to whatever they argued in the run up to the election, even if the circumstances are different. It's half witted to suggest people are bound to follow the highly specific course of a campaign not even supported by everyone who adopted the same position, in the same way, and this may stun you apparently, even the MPs elected pushing a manifesto may not all have agreed with everything in that manifesto. It's so much like parody in its half wittedness I cannot accept you don't know it is so.
It's half-witted to imagine that this vote was not won by pandering to fears about immigration. Though disgraceful, it won the day and must be respected.
Is tonight one of those nights for loony Leavers to frot themselves blind as they conveniently forget that the referendum was fought and won on keeping out foreigners?
In which case, I'll check out again.
I've cut you some slack because of your sad personal news - and I hope your partner continues to improve - but I'm finding it very hard to rein it in. Hmpft.
Do us a favour, shut up, go tend your Hungarian garden. Everything you've said since the vote has been embarrassing. Shush.
Remain refuseniks should just keep their powder dry. The economy will likely contract in Q3. They can have their day in the sun at that point.
I'm content to stick with the morals rather than the economics. To make common cause with and pander to xenophobes is contemptible. That it was successful does not make it less contemptible.
I am not, however, a refusnik. The vote is cast and we just have to make the best of this moral disgrace in a manner consistent with the argument leading up to the vote.
Except Leave didn't pander to or make common cause with xenophobes which is why the xenophobes were ostracised and left with Leave.EU while the grown up Leavers went out and won it.
Not worth it. Alastair has become like an old pub bore on Brexit.
Best left alone, by us other regulars, to sit in the corner by himself whilst he mutters bitterly into his pint.
The correlation in England between English-only national identity and Leave was +75%. That's higher than the correlation with C2DE social grade.
I find that very sad, I've always thought of myself as British, the union with all the other parts of the UK make us stronger as a nation. It's no surprise that we bestrode the world as Britain. It wasn't called the British Empire for nothing, Wanting to split because of minor differences is just so short sighted.
Who are these people and what is it with preferring England to Britain? I don't get it. Seriously, I don't know what is going on there.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sovereignty but also even in the south immigration was an issue too. That said whole swathes of SouthEast England did vote Remain, from Tunbridge Wells to Guildford and West Oxfordshire to Epsom
This map of voting is fascinating. Generally, richer areas voted REMAIN, but not always.
Some LEAVE votes are intriguingly intense and decisive. North Devon: 57 to 43 LEAVE. Dorset: universally LEAVE. Etc.
SeanT is right that the map is fascinating. Basically because it's a good proxy for the UK socio-cultural divide.
For example, the hinterland of Cambridge, as well as Cambridge, being 'Remainy'. Plus Bristol, Exeter, Bath, Brighton, Norwich, Oxford, Cardiff and Manchester.
All places that are very left-liberal, yuppie, new worldy, hippy, internationalist, and middle class/graduatey.
I fear Winchester may be going that way too.
A good chunk of the commuter belt too - like Tunbridge Wells, Guildford, Thames Valley and St. Albans. But not all, and not everywhere. Probably status quo voters.
But, anyway, I've never felt as estranged from my own peer group as I have after this vote.
Interested to hear if you experienced the same as me, CR. In the days after I was often referred to as 'my only Leaver friend' - I generally corrected that to 'your only winning friend'. But more seriously, people turned to me as a counsellor, reassurer of the future, guide to a Britain my peers no longer understood, rather than as a figure of hate.
I was, a few moaners who were mid house sale (all completed, incidentally) aside, very very impressed with my friends. A few on here are the only people I know who won't accept the result....
I do not know anyone who voted Leave. If I knew someone, I would not keep any sort of relationship with him/her.
Is tonight one of those nights for loony Leavers to frot themselves blind as they conveniently forget that the referendum was fought and won on keeping out foreigners?
In which case, I'll check out again.
I've cut you some slack because of your sad personal news - and I hope your partner continues to improve - but I'm finding it very hard to rein it in. Hmpft.
Do us a favour, shut up, go tend your Hungarian garden. Everything you've said since the vote has been embarrassing. Shush.
Remain refuseniks should just keep their powder dry. The economy will likely contract in Q3. They can have their day in the sun at that point.
I'm content to stick with the morals rather than the economics. To make common cause with and pander to xenophobes is contemptible. That it was successful does not make it less contemptible.
I am not, however, a refusnik. The vote is cast and we just have to make the best of this moral disgrace in a manner consistent with the argument leading up to the vote.
Except Leave didn't pander to or make common cause with xenophobes which is why the xenophobes were ostracised and left with Leave.EU while the grown up Leavers went out and won it.
Not worth it. Alastair has become like an old pub bore on Brexit.
Best left alone, by us other regulars, to sit in the corner by himself whilst he mutters bitterly into his pint.
Class was a strong predictor of Europe vote, but national identity was, too. The not very badly-off areas in the South-East that delivered for Leave tended to be not only English-identifying in the census, but English exclusive of British and other national identities.
Is tonight one of those nights for loony Leavers to frot themselves blind as they conveniently forget that the referendum was fought and won on keeping out foreigners?
In which case, I'll check out again.
I've cut you some slack because of your sad personal news - and I hope your partner continues to improve - but I'm finding it very hard to rein it in. Hmpft.
Do us a favour, shut up, go tend your Hungarian garden. Everything you've said since the vote has been embarrassing. Shush.
Remain refuseniks should just keep their powder dry. The economy will likely contract in Q3. They can have their day in the sun at that point.
I'm content to stick with the morals rather than the economics. To make common cause with and pander to xenophobes is contemptible. That it was successful does not make it less contemptible.
I am not, however, a refusnik. The vote is cast and we just have to make the best of this moral disgrace in a manner consistent with the argument leading up to the vote.
Moral disgrace????
MORAL DISGRACE???????
*incredible restraint enacted*
Go away Alastair. Go away, and calm down, and get a grip, and take a break. Stop posting. Now.
It will in future years be seen as just that.
I appreciate that those tainted will not see that for some time.
Watching Faisal Islam's Out and Proud about Brexit.
It's good, but it's the same lazy narrative. The white working class notherners swang it. Did they??
Arguably they were bound to vote OUT: nothing to lose.
And if it was just them OUT would have lost by Nabavi's 70/30
What srners, who voted OUT...
The S won it for Brexit
Yes, rn England.
It.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sovereignty but also even in the south immigration was an issue too. That said whole swathes of SouthEast England did vote Remain, from Tunbridge Wells to Guildford and West Oxfordshire to Epsom
This map of voting is fascinating
Lol @ Bradford voting Leave.
SeanT is right that the map is fascinating. Basically because it's a good proxy for the UK socio-cultural divide.
For example, the hinterland of Cambridge, as well as Cambridge, being 'Remainy'. Plus Bristol, Exeter, Bath, Brighton, Norwich, Oxford, Cardiff and Manchester.
All places that are very left-liberal, yuppie, new worldy, hippy, internationalist, and middle class/graduatey.
I fenever felt as estranged from my own peer group as I have after this vote.
Basicted Leave
No. This is exceptionally lazy.
43% of ABs voted OUT: almost half. Until this is realised there will be no worthy analysis of the most important vote in recent UK history.
I expect PB to do, in time, what the mainstream media is failing to do.
Equally importantly 35% of C2DE over 65's voted for Remain.
All classes, age groups and regions split. There were trends but no fixed rules. Leicester voted Remain, Harborough out and Rutland almost exactly 50/50 for example.
Agreed. Entirely. This cuts both ways. Unexpected people voted REMAIN, and unexpected people voted LEAVE
The most important decision any of us will take was incredibly complex, and deserves better scrutiny and analysis than Tattoos = LEAVE or Stockbrokers = REMAIN
As a Leaver, I was harangued by an old lady and a tattooed white van man.
But I also had a couple of very wealthy homeowners around my area who egged me on.
Watching Faisal Islam's Out and Proud about Brexit.
...
The Sast which had the biggest margins for Leave and which won it for Brexit
Yes, y its most populous region: southern England.
It.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sover
This map of voting is fascinating
Lol @ Bradford voting Leave.
SeanT
Basically areas with lots of graduates and which were reasonably well off voted Remain, areas with lots of working class voters and which were have not done so well out of the country's prosperity voted Leave
Indeed there was a far greater class divide in the EU referendum than there was at the last general election.
But I think that's an oversimplification that papers over the cracks of a lot of nuances, and draws the wrong conclusions.
Too easy to fall into a trap of wealthy/educated = Remain, and poor/stupid = Leave.
Which many people do fall into, willingly, of course. Particularly Remainers.
I was struck by the TUC's 35-64 ABC1 split which was 51:46 to Remain. These are the people with the most to lose - mortgages, kids at their most expensive, careers peaking. I would have expected them to break much more heavily for Remain.
Quite, I think there was a significant vote on sovereignty by richer, better educated people. Which us being studiously ignored by the media, who want to paint Brexit as a UKIP wwc revolt in the north.
I don't blame journalists for this. It's a neat and colourful narrative - the peasants rebellion! Lots of guys in tatts in Burnley! - as a journalist you always need that angle. But it's not the whole truth, not even near.
Rich or poor, I do not know. But there was a direct correlation between educational attainment and voting Remain. It is a fact that cannot be ignored.
There is, as far as I can see, a stronger direct correlation between Remainers and the attempt to seize the moral/educational/sensible/smug highground.
I doubt Scotland is intrinsically more Europhile than the rest of the UK. And Northern Ireland largely divided on sectarian lines, with a non-aligned middle class carrying it for Remain.
Incidentally, Moray almost went Leave - Remain only carried it by a whisker. I really wish it had gone Leave to sour Sturgeon's EU milk.
62% / 38% for Remain is pretty decisive. Scotland was never likely to vote Leave. Unlike the UK as a whole. 48% / 52% could easily have swung the other way. That's why there's not a lot to be said about why people voted for Brexit. We always knew it would be close.
Yes, apart from the recent evidence that Scotland is more Europhile there is no evidence.
What swang it was people like ME; affluent southerners, with money to lose, who still voted OUT. It would be nice if some journalist eventually interviewed the 43% of AB professionals, or the majority of southerners, who voted OUT...
The South did vote Leave if you take the region as a whole but London voted Remain by a big margin and the South East only voted Leave by 51% to 49%, it was the Midlands, the East, Yorkshire and the North East which had the biggest margins for Leave and which won it for Brexit
nd.
.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sovereignty but also even in the south immigration was an issue too. That said whole swathes of SouthEast England did vote Remain, from Tunbridge Wells to Guildford and West Oxfordshire to Epsom
This map of voting is fascinating. Generally, richer areas voted REMAIN, but not always.
Some LEAVE votes are intriguingly intense and decisive. North Devon: 57 to 43 LEAVE. Dorset: universally LEAVE. Etc.
Where I am, the most Labour friendly part of Wiltshire, Swindon (which has had Labour MPs), voted Leave by a higher margin than the Tory Heartland of the rest (heartland bar 1 seat which had been LD that is)
The two factors that correlated the most with voting leave was educational qualifications (low) and age (high). A significant proportion of the variance between one area and another is explained by the geographical variances in these two factors alone. Scotland is almost the only region significantly out of line (more remain than its age/qualification profile would suggest) but, even there, within Scotland the correlation held. Wales was marginally more remain than you would expect from qualifications/age; interestingly London was on par, which suggests that there is no particular 'London' factor other than it having lots of young and qualified people.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sovereignty but also even in the south immigration was an issue too. That said whole swathes of SouthEast England did vote Remain, from Tunbridge Wells to Guildford and West Oxfordshire to Epsom
This map of voting is fascinating. Generally, richer areas voted REMAIN, but not always.
Some LEAVE votes are intriguingly intense and decisive. North Devon: 57 to 43 LEAVE. Dorset: universally LEAVE. Etc.
SeanT is right that the map is fascinating. Basically because it's a good proxy for the UK socio-cultural divide.
For example, the hinterland of Cambridge, as well as Cambridge, being 'Remainy'. Plus Bristol, Exeter, Bath, Brighton, Norwich, Oxford, Cardiff and Manchester.
All places that are very left-liberal, yuppie, new worldy, hippy, internationalist, and middle class/graduatey.
I fear Winchester may be going that way too.
A good chunk of the commuter belt too - like Tunbridge Wells, Guildford, Thames Valley and St. Albans. But not all, and not everywhere. Probably status quo voters.
But, anyway, I've never felt as estranged from my own peer group as I have after this vote.
Interested to hear if you experienced the same as me, CR. In the days after I was often referred to as 'my only Leaver friend' - I generally corrected that to 'your only winning friend'. But more seriously, people turned to me as a counsellor, reassurer of the future, guide to a Britain my peers no longer understood, rather than as a figure of hate.
I was, a few moaners who were mid house sale (all completed, incidentally) aside, very very impressed with my friends. A few on here are the only people I know who won't accept the result....
I do have a few Remainer friends who are still finding it tough. But most of the post result heat has gone.
In person, most were interested in what I had to say and listened.
If I (still) didn't feel so emotionally drained by the whole event, I might write up a full post match analysis on my blog.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sovereignty but also even in the south immigration was an issue too. That said whole swathes of SouthEast England did vote Remain, from Tunbridge Wells to Guildford and West Oxfordshire to Epsom
This map of voting is fascinating. Generally, richer areas voted REMAIN, but not always.
Some LEAVE votes are intriguingly intense and decisive. North Devon: 57 to 43 LEAVE. Dorset: universally LEAVE. Etc.
SeanT is right that the map is fascinating. Basically because it's a good proxy for the UK socio-cultural divide.
For example, the hinterland of Cambridge, as well as Cambridge, being 'Remainy'. Plus Bristol, Exeter, Bath, Brighton, Norwich, Oxford, Cardiff and Manchester.
All places that are very left-liberal, yuppie, new worldy, hippy, internationalist, and middle class/graduatey.
I fear Winchester may be going that way too.
A good chunk of the commuter belt too - like Tunbridge Wells, Guildford, Thames Valley and St. Albans. But not all, and not everywhere. Probably status quo voters.
But, anyway, I've never felt as estranged from my own peer group as I have after this vote.
Interested to hear if you experienced the same as me, CR. In the days after I was often referred to as 'my only Leaver friend' - I generally corrected that to 'your only winning friend'. But more seriously, people turned to me as a counsellor, reassurer of the future, guide to a Britain my peers no longer understood, rather than as a figure of hate.
I was, a few moaners who were mid house sale (all completed, incidentally) aside, very very impressed with my friends. A few on here are the only people I know who won't accept the result....
I do not know anyone who voted Leave. If I knew someone, I would not keep any sort of relationship with him/her.
Rich or poor, I do not know. But there was a direct correlation between educational attainment and voting Remain. It is a fact that cannot be ignored.
I think it can be ignored, because it's rather mixed.
Eurosceptisism started as an intellectual movement, and just like scottish independence it added layer upon layer of red meat, until it reached it's maximum size without being inconsistent.
It's a coalition of different views and interests that built up over time, not a clear cut social class case.
Fortunately for Leave that maximum size was greater than 50% of the public, unlike 45% in Scotland.
Muslims aren't more than 30% in any council area outside Tower Hamlets and Newham so their vote was not dispositive. Notwithstanding that, the Leave vote in areas with over 16% Muslims was above what would be expected controlling for some other demographic factors (except in Oldham). Two possibilities: Muslims voters didn't turn out (turnout was unusually low in these areas); non-Muslim voters living near lots of Muslims are more likely to vote Leave (but what does the EU bloody well have to do with Pakistanis?).
More generally, isn't it strange that Tories voted Leave, but Remain won in many of their tribal heartland areas. Labour voted Remain, but Leave won in many of their tribal heartland areas.
Non-Muslim voters in Muslim areas were more likely to vote Leave yes. Working class Tory Harlow voted Leave as did working class Labour Sunderland, middle class Tory Epsom voted Remain as did middle class Labour Cambridge, so again the class theme is there, generally posher Tory and Labour seats were more likely to vote Remain and vice-versa
There were figures published by a Birmingham newspaper. And it was clear, heavily Muslim areas voted Remain. WWC areas voted Leave.
There was a Leave / Remain split in areas of affordable / unaffordable housing:
' ◾The most expensive places to rent a room in the South East are large parts of Surrey, Oxfordshire and Tunbridge Wells in Kent ◾Renting a one bedroom property in the South East would be impossible within recommended limits everywhere except Medway, Hastings, Rother, Gosport, Dover, Shepway, Thanet and the Isle of Wight '
The correlation in England between English-only national identity and Leave was +75%. That's higher than the correlation with C2DE social grade.
I find that very sad, I've always thought of myself as British, the union with all the other parts of the UK make us stronger as a nation. It's no surprise that we bestrode the world as Britain. It wasn't called the British Empire for nothing, Wanting to split because of minor differences is just so short sighted.
Who are these people and what is it with preferring England to Britain? I don't get it. Seriously, I don't know what is going on there.
Er, I think Scotland nearly voting to LEAVE the UK might have had something to do with it?
Devolution has loosened Britishness, clearly. I regret it, like you. But the reasons are not obscure.
But they didn't, and the union is, for now, still intact. I think May looks as though she understands it needs to be worked on and polls are by no means for splitting, so there is still hope.
Is tonight one of those nights for loony Leavers to frot themselves blind as they conveniently forget that the referendum was fought and won on keeping out foreigners?
In which case, I'll check out again.
I've cut you some slack because of your sad personal news - and I hope your partner continues to improve - but I'm finding it very hard to rein it in. Hmpft.
Do us a favour, shut up, go tend your Hungarian garden. Everything you've said since the vote has been embarrassing. Shush.
Remain refuseniks should just keep their powder dry. The economy will likely contract in Q3. They can have their day in the sun at that point.
I'm content to stick with the morals rather than the economics. To make common cause with and pander to xenophobes is contemptible. That it was successful does not make it less contemptible.
I am not, however, a refusnik. The vote is cast and we just have to make the best of this moral disgrace in a manner consistent with the argument leading up to the vote.
Moral disgrace????
MORAL DISGRACE???????
*incredible restraint enacted*
Go away Alastair. Go away, and calm down, and get a grip, and take a break. Stop posting. Now.
It will in future years be seen as just that.
I appreciate that those tainted will not see that for some time.
Oh Alastair, that is no more likely to be true than if I were to say 'in the future it will be seen as a necessary check against creeping supranationalism at a time of intense and wrongheaded corporatism'.
You're upset about the vote, we get it. One sobering line I've found my Remainer friends have found useful is that for the last 4 decades a lot of people who voted Leave have experienced this disappoint on a daily basis.
There are certainly some oddities in the Leave/Remain figures by area.
Not far from where I live, true-blue, prosperous, middle-class Tunbridge Wells voted Remain, whereas just a few miles away true-blue, prosperous, middle-class Sevenoaks voted Leave. The demographics are very similar, except that, of the two, Sevenoaks is wealthier and more fully stuffed with commuting lawyers and bankers.
Despite the image of TW I bet there are more older people (or more correctly, fewer young people) in Sevenoaks, which probably explains it.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sovereignty but also even in the south immigration was an issue too. That said whole swathes of SouthEast England did vote Remain, from Tunbridge Wells to Guildford and West Oxfordshire to Epsom
This map of voting is fascinating. Generally, richer areas voted REMAIN, but not always.
Some LEAVE votes are intriguingly intense and decisive. North Devon: 57 to 43 LEAVE. Dorset: universally LEAVE. Etc.
SeanT is right that the map is fascinating. Basically because it's a good proxy for the UK socio-cultural divide.
For example, the hinterland of Cambridge, as well as Cambridge, being 'Remainy'. Plus Bristol, Exeter, Bath, Brighton, Norwich, Oxford, Cardiff and Manchester.
All places that are very left-liberal, yuppie, new worldy, hippy, internationalist, and middle class/graduatey.
I fear Winchester may be going that way too.
A good chunk of the commuter belt too - like Tunbridge Wells, Guildford, Thames Valley and St. Albans. But not all, and not everywhere. Probably status quo voters.
But, anyway, I've never felt as estranged from my own peer group as I have after this vote.
Interested to hear if you experienced the same as me, CR. In the days after I was often referred to as 'my only Leaver friend' - I generally corrected that to 'your only winning friend'. But more seriously, people turned to me as a counsellor, reassurer of the future, guide to a Britain my peers no longer understood, rather than as a figure of hate.
I was, a few moaners who were mid house sale (all completed, incidentally) aside, very very impressed with my friends. A few on here are the only people I know who won't accept the result....
I do not know anyone who voted Leave. If I knew someone, I would not keep any sort of relationship with him/her.
Muslims aren't more than 30% in any council area outside Tower Hamlets and Newham so their vote was not dispositive. Notwithstanding that, the Leave vote in areas with over 16% Muslims was above what would be expected controlling for some other demographic factors (except in Oldham). Two possibilities: Muslims voters didn't turn out (turnout was unusually low in these areas); non-Muslim voters living near lots of Muslims are more likely to vote Leave (but what does the EU bloody well have to do with Pakistanis?).
More generally, isn't it strange that Tories voted Leave, but Remain won in many of their tribal heartland areas. Labour voted Remain, but Leave won in many of their tribal heartland areas.
Non-Muslim voters in Muslim areas were more likely to vote Leave yes. Working class Tory Harlow voted Leave as did working class Labour Sunderland, middle class Tory Epsom voted Remain as did middle class Labour Cambridge, so again the class theme is there, generally posher Tory and Labour seats were more likely to vote Remain and vice-versa
There were figures published by a Birmingham newspaper. And it was clear, heavily Muslim areas voted Remain. WWC areas voted Leave.
Yes the Muslim vote was sizeable for Remain but outvoted by the WWC vote for Leave
I doubt Scotland is intrinsically more Europhile than the rest of the UK. And Northern Ireland largely divided on sectarian lines, with a non-aligned middle class carrying it for Remain.
Incidentally, Moray almost went Leave - Remain only carried it by a whisker. I really wish it had gone Leave to sour Sturgeon's EU milk.
62% / 38% for Remain is pretty decisive. Scotland was never likely to vote Leave. Unlike the UK as a whole. 48% / 52% could easily have swung the other way. That's why there's not a lot to be said about why people voted for Brexit. We always knew it would be close.
I think it's more a symptom of Scotland's continued political divergence from the rest of the UK, rather than europhilia to be honest, and the fact that a lot of unionists knew Sturgeon would use a Leave vote as a crib to pursue a 2nd indyref. So the lesser of two evils.
I doubt the Gibraltarians have any real love for the EU either. But they are absolutely 100% reliant on the financial passport and free movement into Spain in the absence of a massive UK defence economy there anymore.
Going by the total lack of any plan or even any direction implied by the Leave campaign, I don't think Leavers in general were voting FOR anything. They voted AGAINST their dislikes. Whereas Remainers voted FOR the status quo, flawed or not. Scots just didn't have the same dislike for the EU. In many cases the kind of dislike felt by English towards Brussels - an arbitrary, corrupt and remote institution- is felt by Scots towards Westminster. Neither is right or wrong. You are exercised by it or you are not.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sovereignty but also even in the south immigration was an issue too. That said whole swathes of SouthEast England did vote Remain, from Tunbridge Wells to Guildford and West Oxfordshire to Epsom
This map of voting is fascinating. Generally, richer areas voted REMAIN, but not always.
Some LEAVE votes are intriguingly intense and decisive. North Devon: 57 to 43 LEAVE. Dorset: universally LEAVE. Etc.
SeanT is right that the map is fascinating. Basically because it's a good proxy for the UK socio-cultural divide.
For example, the hinterland of Cambridge, as well as Cambridge, being 'Remainy'. Plus Bristol, Exeter, Bath, Brighton, Norwich, Oxford, Cardiff and Manchester.
All places that are very left-liberal, yuppie, new worldy, hippy, internationalist, and middle class/graduatey.
I fear Winchester may be going that way too.
A good chunk of the commuter belt too - like Tunbridge Wells, Guildford, Thames Valley and St. Albans. But not all, and not everywhere. Probably status quo voters.
But, anyway, I've never felt as estranged from my own peer group as I have after this vote.
Interested to hear if you experienced the same as me, CR. In the days after I was often referred to as 'my only Leaver friend' - I generally corrected that to 'your only winning friend'. But more seriously, people turned to me as a counsellor, reassurer of the future, guide to a Britain my peers no longer understood, rather than as a figure of hate.
I was, a few moaners who were mid house sale (all completed, incidentally) aside, very very impressed with my friends. A few on here are the only people I know who won't accept the result....
I do have a few Remainer friends who are still finding it tough. But most of the post result heat has gone.
In person, most were interested in what I had to say and listened.
If I (still) didn't feel so emotionally drained by the whole event, I might write up a full post match analysis on my blog.
Since this is politicalbetting.com, what we should be exploring is not the morals but the lessons for betting purposes of the referendum result. Pundits, journalists, politicians,financial markets, and political punters - including yours truly - read it wrongly. What lessons are there to be learnt from this misreading, so we can bet more profitably in the future?
TBH I'm not sure. The weight of economic arguments for Remain was absolutely overwhelming. Did the public knowingly decide to accept the risks, or did they not believe them? Did we under-estimate economic confidence (voters thought they were safe to take the risk), or over-estimate it (voters thought they had nothing to lose)? Or was it different amongst different groups? Or did they knowingly prioritise sovereignty and/or immigration over economics?
There are certainly some oddities in the Leave/Remain figures by area.
Not far from where I live, true-blue, prosperous, middle-class Tunbridge Wells voted Remain, whereas just a few miles away true-blue, prosperous, middle-class Sevenoaks voted Leave. The demographics are very similar, except that, of the two, Sevenoaks is wealthier and more fully stuffed with commuting lawyers and bankers.
Despite the image of TW I bet there are more older people (or more correctly, fewer young people) in Sevenoaks, which probably explains it.
That was my first guess too. TW is a bit of a Kentish hipster colony too, no?
Watching Faisal Islam's Out and Proud about Brexit.
It's good, but it's the same lazy narrative. The white working class notherners swang it. Did they??
Arguably they were bound to vote OUT: nothing to lose.
And if it was just them OUT would have lost by Nabavi's 70/30
What srners, who voted OUT...
The S won it for Brexit
Yes, rn England.
It.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sovereignty but also even in the south immigration was an issue too. That said whole swathes of SouthEast England did vote Remain, from Tunbridge Wells to Guildford and West Oxfordshire to Epsom
This map of voting is fascinating
Lol @ Bradford voting Leave.
SeanT is right that the map is fascinating. Basically because it's a good proxy for the UK socio-cultural divide.
For example, the hinterland of Cambridge, as well as Cambridge, being 'Remainy'. Plus Bristol, Exeter, Bath, Brighton, Norwich, Oxford, Cardiff and Manchester.
All places that are very left-liberal, yuppie, new worldy, hippy, internationalist, and middle class/graduatey.
I fenever felt as estranged from my own peer group as I have after this vote.
Basicted Leave
No. This is exceptionally lazy.
43% of ABs voted OUT: almost half. Until this is realised there will be no worthy analysis of the most important vote in recent UK history.
I expect PB to do, in time, what the mainstream media is failing to do.
Equally importantly 35% of C2DE over 65's voted for Remain.
All classes, age groups and regions split. There were trends but no fixed rules. Leicester voted Remain, Harborough out and Rutland almost exactly 50/50 for example.
Agreed. Entirely. This cuts both ways. Unexpected people voted REMAIN, and unexpected people voted LEAVE
The most important decision any of us will take was incredibly complex, and deserves better scrutiny and analysis than Tattoos = LEAVE or Stockbrokers = REMAIN
Plenty of stockbrokers voted Leave and plenty of those with tattoos in Camden voted Remain, a clearer divide was whether the voter left school at 16 or was a university graduate
There are certainly some oddities in the Leave/Remain figures by area.
Not far from where I live, true-blue, prosperous, middle-class Tunbridge Wells voted Remain, whereas just a few miles away true-blue, prosperous, middle-class Sevenoaks voted Leave. The demographics are very similar, except that, of the two, Sevenoaks is wealthier and more fully stuffed with commuting lawyers and bankers.
Despite the image of TW I bet there are more older people (or more correctly, fewer young people) in Sevenoaks, which probably explains it.
That was my first guess too. TW is a bit of a Kentish hipster colony too, no?
More that Sevenoaks is completely unaffordable to most twenty-somethings, and generally Kent gets more affordable, particularly away from town centres, the further you get from London.
The correlation in England between English-only national identity and Leave was +75%. That's higher than the correlation with C2DE social grade.
I find that very sad, I've always thought of myself as British, the union with all the other parts of the UK make us stronger as a nation. It's no surprise that we bestrode the world as Britain. It wasn't called the British Empire for nothing, Wanting to split because of minor differences is just so short sighted.
Who are these people and what is it with preferring England to Britain? I don't get it. Seriously, I don't know what is going on there.
Er, I think Scotland nearly voting to LEAVE the UK might have had something to do with it?
Devolution has loosened Britishness, clearly. I regret it, like you. But the reasons are not obscure.
That, and the years of casual insinuation that those who call themselves English are racist, which caused a predictable blow back.
Muslims aren't more than 30% in any council area outside Tower Hamlets and Newham so their vote was not dispositive. Notwithstanding that, the Leave vote in areas with over 16% Muslims was above what would be expected controlling for some other demographic factors (except in Oldham). Two possibilities: Muslims voters didn't turn out (turnout was unusually low in these areas); non-Muslim voters living near lots of Muslims are more likely to vote Leave (but what does the EU bloody well have to do with Pakistanis?).
More generally, isn't it strange that Tories voted Leave, but Remain won in many of their tribal heartland areas. Labour voted Remain, but Leave won in many of their tribal heartland areas.
Non-Muslim voters in Muslim areas were more likely to vote Leave yes. Working class Tory Harlow voted Leave as did working class Labour Sunderland, middle class Tory Epsom voted Remain as did middle class Labour Cambridge, so again the class theme is there, generally posher Tory and Labour seats were more likely to vote Remain and vice-versa
There were figures published by a Birmingham newspaper. And it was clear, heavily Muslim areas voted Remain. WWC areas voted Leave.
Yes the Muslim vote was sizeable for Remain but outvoted by the WWC vote for Leave
This is why one has to be careful with the ecological fallacy when looking at correlations. Where the group is small compared to the population as a whole, like Muslims, then their behaviour is not going to be dispositive of the outcome practically anywhere. And different types of behaviour are correlated, e.g. Muslims and "WWC" living near each other, rich people being more likely not to die in their 60s and a concomitant age/prosperity correlation, etc.
Also important to remember that, despite all the journalists looking for some simple prism through which to distill the result, the majority of council areas came in between 55/45 and 45/55 and almost all were within 60/40.
Since this is politicalbetting.com, what we should be exploring is not the morals but the lessons for betting purposes of the referendum result. Pundits, journalists, politicians,financial markets, and political punters - including yours truly - read it wrongly. What lessons are there to be learnt from this misreading, so we can bet more profitably in the future?
TBH I'm not sure. The weight of economic arguments for Remain was absolutely overwhelming. Did the public knowingly decide to accept the risks, or did they not believe them? Did we over-estimate economic confidence (voters thought they were safe), or under-estimate it (voters thought they had nothing to lose)? Or was it different amongst different groups? Or did they knowingly prioritise sovereignty and/or immigration over economics?
The last sentence was the subject of one of my thread headers. But your preceding two penultimate sentences probably make more sense; many relatively wealthier voters decided they were insulated from any perceived economic issue, and many poorer voters unsurprisingly felt no resonance with 'Brexit will make you poor' arguments.
For me one of the biggest shocks was that I voted the same way as a business associate with almost diametric politics to me. Old fashioned, decent, principled socialist - not imbued with any of the 'right-on' ness of the modern pale imitation of a Labour party.
Is tonight one of those nights for loony Leavers to frot themselves blind as they conveniently forget that the referendum was fought and won on keeping out foreigners?
In which case, I'll check out again.
I've cut you some slack because of your sad personal news - and I hope your partner continues to improve - but I'm finding it very hard to rein it in. Hmpft.
Do us a favour, shut up, go tend your Hungarian garden. Everything you've said since the vote has been embarrassing. Shush.
Remain refuseniks should just keep their powder dry. The economy will likely contract in Q3. They can have their day in the sun at that point.
I'm content to stick with the morals rather than the economics. To make common cause with and pander to xenophobes is contemptible. That it was successful does not make it less contemptible.
I am not, however, a refusnik. The vote is cast and we just have to make the best of this moral disgrace in a manner consistent with the argument leading up to the vote.
Moral disgrace????
MORAL DISGRACE???????
*incredible restraint enacted*
Go away Alastair. Go away, and calm down, and get a grip, and take a break. Stop posting. Now.
It will in future years be seen as just that.
I appreciate that those tainted will not see that for some time.
Oh Alastair, that is no more likely to be true than if I were to say 'in the future it will be seen as a necessary check against creeping supranationalism at a time of intense and wrongheaded corporatism'.
You're upset about the vote, we get it. One sobering line I've found my Remainer friends have found useful is that for the last 4 decades a lot of people who voted Leave have experienced this disappoint on a daily basis.
I regard the EU as fundamentally a second order matter. Leaving is a lunatic distraction, but it will pass (albeit that as a nation we will probably be substantially poorer as a result).
But the manner of Leave's victory is one which the nation will not recover from morally for many years. Every form of minority will now become fair game for populists to vilify. Because the referendum has shown that such a strategy can work.
The correlation in England between English-only national identity and Leave was +75%. That's higher than the correlation with C2DE social grade.
I find that very sad, I've always thought of myself as British, the union with all the other parts of the UK make us stronger as a nation. It's no surprise that we bestrode the world as Britain. It wasn't called the British Empire for nothing, Wanting to split because of minor differences is just so short sighted.
Who are these people and what is it with preferring England to Britain? I don't get it. Seriously, I don't know what is going on there.
I think only an SNP'er can understand the feelings of a Leave voter, it was a mirror image of YES but it succeeded because the EU is more foreign to Britain than Britain is to Scotland.
For once we share the same democracy, the same language, and the same history with Scotland. The EU is neither a democracy, nor British, nor we have the same history.
Also Britain is more successful than the EU, unlike Scotland compared with the rest of the country, so there is more confidence on going it alone.
There are certainly some oddities in the Leave/Remain figures by area.
Not far from where I live, true-blue, prosperous, middle-class Tunbridge Wells voted Remain, whereas just a few miles away true-blue, prosperous, middle-class Sevenoaks voted Leave. The demographics are very similar, except that, of the two, Sevenoaks is wealthier and more fully stuffed with commuting lawyers and bankers.
Despite the image of TW I bet there are more older people (or more correctly, fewer young people) in Sevenoaks, which probably explains it.
That was my first guess too. TW is a bit of a Kentish hipster colony too, no?
More that Sevenoaks is completely unaffordable to most twenty-somethings, and generally Kent gets more affordable, particularly away from town centres, the further you get from London.
More still Tunbridge Wells is old money, Sevenoaks a bit more nouveau, while Tunbridge Wells also has the Pantiles which is relatively bohemian. Tonbridge voted Leave like Sevenoaks but is less well off than either its Kent neighbours, though still relatively prosperous
There are certainly some oddities in the Leave/Remain figures by area.
Not far from where I live, true-blue, prosperous, middle-class Tunbridge Wells voted Remain, whereas just a few miles away true-blue, prosperous, middle-class Sevenoaks voted Leave. The demographics are very similar, except that, of the two, Sevenoaks is wealthier and more fully stuffed with commuting lawyers and bankers.
Despite the image of TW I bet there are more older people (or more correctly, fewer young people) in Sevenoaks, which probably explains it.
That was my first guess too. TW is a bit of a Kentish hipster colony too, no?
More that Sevenoaks is completely unaffordable to most twenty-somethings, and generally Kent gets more affordable, particularly away from town centres, the further you get from London.
More still Tunbridge Wells is old money, Sevenoaks a bit more nouveau, while Tunbridge Wells also has the Pantiles which is relatively bohemian. Tonbridge voted Leave too but is less well off than either, though still relatively prosperous
True. Another indicator is that in times gone by the LibDems did quite well in TW, but never had a chance of getting very far in Sevenoaks.
Watching Faisal Islam's Out and Proud about Brexit.
...
The Sast which had the biggest margins for Leave and which won it for Brexit
Yes, y its most populous region: southern England.
It.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sover
This map of voting is fascinating
Lol @ Bradford voting Leave.
SeanT
Basically areas with lots of graduates and which were reasonably well off voted Remain, areas with lots of working class voters and which were have not done so well out of the country's prosperity voted Leave
Indeed there was a far greater class divide in the EU referendum than there was at the last general election.
But I think that's an oversimplification that papers over the cracks of a lot of nuances, and draws the wrong conclusions.
Too easy to fall into a trap of wealthy/educated = Remain, and poor/stupid = Leave.
Which many people do fall into, willingly, of course. Particularly Remainers.
I was struck by the TUC's 35-64 ABC1 split which was 51:46 to Remain. These are the people with the most to lose - mortgages, kids at their most expensive, careers peaking. I would have expected them to break much more heavily for Remain.
Quite, I think there was a significant vote on sovereignty by richer, better educated people. Which us being studiously ignored by the media, who want to paint Brexit as a UKIP wwc revolt in the north.
I don't blame journalists for this. It's a neat and colourful narrative - the peasants rebellion! Lots of guys in tatts in Burnley! - as a journalist you always need that angle. But it's not the whole truth, not even near.
Rich or poor, I do not know. But there was a direct correlation between educational attainment and voting Remain. It is a fact that cannot be ignored.
People who have to work for a living voted Remain. People on benefits and pensioners voted Leave.
Since this is politicalbetting.com, what we should be exploring is not the morals but the lessons for betting purposes of the referendum result. Pundits, journalists, politicians,financial markets, and political punters - including yours truly - read it wrongly. What lessons are there to be learnt from this misreading, so we can bet more profitably in the future?
TBH I'm not sure. The weight of economic arguments for Remain was absolutely overwhelming. Did the public knowingly decide to accept the risks, or did they not believe them? Did we over-estimate economic confidence (voters thought they were safe), or under-estimate it (voters thought they had nothing to lose)? Or was it different amongst different groups? Or did they knowingly prioritise sovereignty and/or immigration over economics?
Understand the concept of the shy whatever. Whenever you get a media and political culture that tries to tar people with perfectly legit views as 'right-wingers', 'little englanders', xenophobes..bigots...whatever, people do feel the need to temper their spoken views or just stay quiet. Get into the polling booth though, and that media and political pressure counts for nothing. Britons don't do well with that kind of crap being foisted upon them by a bunch of Oxbridge-led people with pens. In effect the masses were being beaten up and labelled as bad people when they were not.
The second aspect is one of belief as a signal of swinging a vote. I posted here that if there was a genuine sense that Leave could actually win, then it would win. Bearing in mind at the start the polls showed a decent gap, as time went on the feeling that Leave could do it became more real as polls showed the contest tightening up. That motivates, it brings those quiet voters out too. You could perhaps call it momentum but I'm not sure its quite the same.
There are certainly some oddities in the Leave/Remain figures by area.
Not far from where I live, true-blue, prosperous, middle-class Tunbridge Wells voted Remain, whereas just a few miles away true-blue, prosperous, middle-class Sevenoaks voted Leave. The demographics are very similar, except that, of the two, Sevenoaks is wealthier and more fully stuffed with commuting lawyers and bankers.
Despite the image of TW I bet there are more older people (or more correctly, fewer young people) in Sevenoaks, which probably explains it.
That was my first guess too. TW is a bit of a Kentish hipster colony too, no?
More that Sevenoaks is completely unaffordable to most twenty-somethings, and generally Kent gets more affordable, particularly away from town centres, the further you get from London.
More still Tunbridge Wells is old money, Sevenoaks a bit more nouveau, while Tunbridge Wells also has the Pantiles which is relatively bohemian. Tonbridge voted Leave too but is less well off than either, though still relatively prosperous
True. Another indicator is that in times gone by the LibDems did quite well in TW, but never had a chance of getting very far in Sevenoaks.
The LDs won control of TW council for a brief period in the mid 90s
Watching Faisal Islam's Out and Proud about Brexit.
...
The Sast which had the biggest margins for Leave and which won it for Brexit
Yes, y its most populous region: southern England.
It.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sover
This map of voting is fascinating
Lol @ Bradford voting Leave.
SeanT
Basically areas with lots of graduates and which were reasonably well off voted Remain, areas with lots of working class voters and which were have not done so well out of the country's prosperity voted Leave
Indeed there was a far greater class divide in the EU referendum than there was at the last general election.
But I think that's an oversimplification that papers over the cracks of a lot of nuances, and draws the wrong conclusions.
Too easy to fall into a trap of wealthy/educated = Remain, and poor/stupid = Leave.
Which many people do fall into, willingly, of course. Particularly Remainers.
I was struck by the TUC's 35-64 ABC1 split which was 51:46 to Remain. These are the people with the most to lose - mortgages, kids at their most expensive, careers peaking. I would have expected them to break much more heavily for Remain.
Quite, I think there was a significant vote on sovereignty by richer, better educated people. Which us being studiously ignored by the media, who want to paint Brexit as a UKIP wwc revolt in the north.
I don't blame journalists for this. It's a neat and colourful narrative - the peasants rebellion! Lots of guys in tatts in Burnley! - as a journalist you always need that angle. But it's not the whole truth, not even near.
Rich or poor, I do not know. But there was a direct correlation between educational attainment and voting Remain. It is a fact that cannot be ignored.
People who have to work for a living voted Remain. People on benefits and pensioners voted Leave.
So 52% of the country are on benefits or pensioners?
Muslims aren't more than 30% in any council area outside Tower Hamlets and Newham so their vote was not dispositive. Notwithstanding that, the Leave vote in areas with over 16% Muslims was above what would be expected controlling for some other demographic factors (except in Oldham). Two possibilities: Muslims voters didn't turn out (turnout was unusually low in these areas); non-Muslim voters living near lots of Muslims are more likely to vote Leave (but what does the EU bloody well have to do with Pakistanis?).
More generally, isn't it strange that Tories voted Leave, but Remain won in many of their tribal heartland areas. Labour voted Remain, but Leave won in many of their tribal heartland areas.
Non-Muslim voters in Muslim areas were more likely to vote Leave yes. Working class Tory Harlow voted Leave as did working class Labour Sunderland, middle class Tory Epsom voted Remain as did middle class Labour Cambridge, so again the class theme is there, generally posher Tory and Labour seats were more likely to vote Remain and vice-versa
There were figures published by a Birmingham newspaper. And it was clear, heavily Muslim areas voted Remain. WWC areas voted Leave.
Yes the Muslim vote was sizeable for Remain but outvoted by the WWC vote for Leave
This is why one has to be careful with the ecological fallacy when looking at correlations. Where the group is small compared to the population as a whole, like Muslims, then their behaviour is not going to be dispositive of the outcome practically anywhere. And different types of behaviour are correlated, e.g. Muslims and "WWC" living near each other, rich people being more likely not to die in their 60s and a concomitant age/prosperity correlation, etc.
Yes you need to look carefully at local demographics
Is tonight one of those nights for loony Leavers to frot themselves blind as they conveniently forget that the referendum was fought and won on keeping out foreigners?
In which case, I'll check out again.
I've cut you some slack because of your sad personal news - and I hope your partner continues to improve - but I'm finding it very hard to rein it in. Hmpft.
Do us a favour, shut up, go tend your Hungarian garden. Everything you've said since the vote has been embarrassing. Shush.
Remain refuseniks should just keep their powder dry. The economy will likely contract in Q3. They can have their day in the sun at that point.
I'm content to stick with the morals rather than the economics. To make common cause with and pander to xenophobes is contemptible. That it was successful does not make it less contemptible.
I am not, however, a refusnik. The vote is cast and we just have to make the best of this moral disgrace in a manner consistent with the argument leading up to the vote.
Moral disgrace????
MORAL DISGRACE???????
*incredible restraint enacted*
Go away Alastair. Go away, and calm down, and get a grip, and take a break. Stop posting. Now.
It will in future years be seen as just that.
I appreciate that those tainted will not see that for some time.
Oh Alastair, that is no more likely to be true than if I were to say 'in the future it will be seen as a necessary check against creeping supranationalism at a time of intense and wrongheaded corporatism'.
You're upset about the vote, we get it. One sobering line I've found my Remainer friends have found useful is that for the last 4 decades a lot of people who voted Leave have experienced this disappoint on a daily basis.
I regard the EU as fundamentally a second order matter. Leaving is a lunatic distraction, but it will pass (albeit that as a nation we will probably be substantially poorer as a result).
But the manner of Leave's victory is one which the nation will not recover from morally for many years. Every form of minority will now become fair game for populists to vilify. Because the referendum has shown that such a strategy can work.
When all Britain's woes are not magically cured, we shall see what and who the populists turn on next...
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sovereignty but also even in the south immigration was an issue too. That said whole swathes of SouthEast England did vote Remain, from Tunbridge Wells to Guildford and West Oxfordshire to Epsom
This map of voting is fascinating. Generally, richer areas voted REMAIN, but not always.
SeanT is right that the map is fascinating. Basically because it's a good proxy for the UK socio-cultural divide.
For example, the hinterland of Cambridge, as well as Cambridge, being 'Remainy'. Plus Bristol, Exeter, Bath, Brighton, Norwich, Oxford, Cardiff and Manchester.
left-liberal, yuppie, new worldy, hippy, internationalist, and middle class/graduatey.
I fear Winchester may be going that way too.
A good chunk of the commuter belt too - like Tunbridge Wells, Guildford, Thames Valley and St. Albans. But not all, and not everywhere. Probably status quo voters.
But, anyway, I've never felt as estranged from my own peer group as I have after this vote.
Interested to hear if you experienced the same as me, CR. In the days after I was often referred to as 'my only Leaver friend' - I generally corrected that to 'your only winning friend'. But more seriously, people turned to me as a counsellor, reassurer of the future, guide to a Britain my peers no longer understood, rather than as a figure of hate.
I was, a few moaners who were mid house sale (all completed, incidentally) aside, very very impressed with my friends. A few on here are the only people I know who won't accept the result....
I do have a few Remainer friends who are still finding it tough. But most of the post result heat has gone.
In person, most were interested in what I had to say and listened.
If I (still) didn't feel so emotionally drained by the whole event, I might write up a full post match analysis on my blog.
Perhaps I will. Soon. Or soon-ish.
I don't use Facebook. What do the Remoaners actually want? No Brexit, second referendum, Norway option? Or is it just unfocussed moaning, grief and denial?
I regard the EU as fundamentally a second order matter. Leaving is a lunatic distraction, but it will pass (albeit that as a nation we will probably be substantially poorer as a result).
But the manner of Leave's victory is one which the nation will not recover from morally for many years. Every form of minority will now become fair game for populists to vilify. Because the referendum has shown that such a strategy can work.
I have to agree with this. Leave ran an astonishingly dishonest campaign. Remain tended to exaggeration but stayed away from the outright lies of their opponents. I thought Indyref Yes was dishonest, but Leave was in another level again.
Having said that, I don't think Leavers are stupid. Arguably, Remain had an arrogance and lack of curiosity about why people would want to leave the EU, that was stupid.
Good grief. We're not still arguing about EURef are we? It was dire shoddy downright nasty campaign. Time to move on from it to working out what's next and recognising that there are countless risks/opportunities ahead. So we'd better get right.
Yep, that's my analysis, and it's more interesting - to my mind - than the northern WWC voting OUT
Why did people like ME - prosperous southerners, with stuff to lose - vote GO?
Sovereignty but also even in the south immigration was an issue too. That said whole swathes of SouthEast England did vote Remain, from Tunbridge Wells to Guildford and West Oxfordshire to Epsom
This map of voting is fascinating. GenerallyN, but not always.
SeanT is right that the map is fascinating. Basically because it's a good proxy for the UK socio-cultural divide.
For example, the hinterland of Cambridge, as well as Cambridge, being 'Remainy'. Plus Bristol, Exeter, Bath, Brighton, Norwich, Oxford, Cardiff and Manchester.
left-liberal, yuppie, new worldy, hippy, internationalist, and middle class/graduatey.
I fear Winchester may be going that way too.
A good chunk of the commuter belt too - like Tunbridge Wells, Guildford, Thames Valley and St. Albans. But not all, and not everywhere. Probably status quo voters.
But, anyway, I've never felt as estranged from my own peer group as I have after this vote.
Interested to hear if you experienced the same as me, CR. In the days after I was often referred to as 'my only Leaver friend' - I generally corrected that to 'your only winning friend'. But more seriously, people turned to me as a counsellor, reassurer of the future, guide to a Britain my peers no longer understood, rather than as a figure of hate.
I was, a few moaners who were mid house sale (all completed, incidentally) aside, very very impressed with my friends. A few on here are the only people I know who won't accept the result....
I do have a few Remainer friends who are still finding it tough. But most of the post result heat has gone.
In person, most were interested in what I had to say and listened.
If I (still) didn't feel so emotionally drained by the whole event, I might write up a full post match analysis on my blog.
Perhaps I will. Soon. Or soon-ish.
I don't use Facebook. What do the Remoaners actually want? No Brexit, second referendum, Norway option? Or is it just unfocussed moaning, grief and denial?
I want a Brexit deal that saves the British Sausage!
Since this is politicalbetting.com, what we should be exploring is not the morals but the lessons for betting purposes of the referendum result. Pundits, journalists, politicians,financial markets, and political punters - including yours truly - read it wrongly. What lessons are there to be learnt from this misreading, so we can bet more profitably in the future?
TBH I'm not sure. The weight of economic arguments for Remain was absolutely overwhelming. Did the public knowingly decide to accept the risks, or did they not believe them? Did we over-estimate economic confidence (voters thought they were safe), or under-estimate it (voters thought they had nothing to lose)? Or was it different amongst different groups? Or did they knowingly prioritise sovereignty and/or immigration over economics?
Understand the concept of the shy whatever. Whenever you get a media and political culture that tries to tar people with perfectly legit views as 'right-wingers', 'little englanders', xenophobes..bigots...whatever, people do feel the need to temper their spoken views or just stay quiet. Get into the polling booth though, and that media and political pressure counts for nothing. Britons don't do well with that kind of crap being foisted upon them by a bunch of Oxbridge-led people with pens. In effect the masses were being told they were being beaten up and labelled as bad people when they were not.
The funny thing is, England historically always has done well with that kind of crap foisted on them by Oxbridge. Oxbridge rules and, indeed, the outcome of the referendum is effectively to give more control to Oxbridge, the United States, and perhaps China.
Then the question becomes, why did it happen this time? I wrote beforehand that it was hard to think of this kind of reaction against the government, the opposition, and the top runners of the country being voted for in England. Certainly not since the elections of the first two Labour ministries in the 1920s, and only in 1929 on a plurality of the vote. What was it about the campaign that was different this time? I do believe it was a mixture of sovereignty and immigration, and one cannot simply handwave away the immigration aspect of the campaign and ascribe the outcome solely to dry theoretical concepts of Westphalian statehood or romantic memories.
Comments
If that where correct Bolton, Bury, Rochdale, Oldham, Bradford, Birmingham ect would have voted Remain.
Though it's indisputable that muslims in London voted Remain.
Territory and economic history is a more predictable measure than the share of minorities in Britain.
More generally, isn't it strange that Tories voted Leave, but Remain won in many of their tribal heartland areas. Labour voted Remain, but Leave won in many of their tribal heartland areas.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
Shame...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016
The districts which were 51.9% were Basingstoke & Deane and Test Valley - both in Hampshire.
All classes, age groups and regions split. There were trends but no fixed rules. Leicester voted Remain, Harborough out and Rutland almost exactly 50/50 for example.
This is tragic...
It doesn't matter, democracy won out, the vote was leave.
I am not, however, a refusnik. The vote is cast and we just have to make the best of this moral disgrace in a manner consistent with the argument leading up to the vote.
I doubt the Gibraltarians have any real love for the EU either. But they are absolutely 100% reliant on the financial passport and free movement into Spain in the absence of a massive UK defence economy there anymore.
The current MP had to resign from the cabinet in disgrace, and her predecessor defected from the Tories to the DUP and was poorly regarded.
I was, a few moaners who were mid house sale (all completed, incidentally) aside, very very impressed with my friends. A few on here are the only people I know who won't accept the result....
My businesses are hugely affected by this decision. But I would never even think of describing it as such.
It's true even in a GE that those areas have lower than average turnout, probably something to do with a sentiment "it's not our country, so why bother".
But a long term depressed local economy can be associated with long term EU membership, add that Cameron was not popular with that community, and also that EU immigration ironically competes with immigrants who already are here.
That's why I have the impression from the results, that muslims outside of London voted differently than those inside London.
London. It's just a totally different world.
The strongest Leave area in the West Midlands was Stoke at 69.4% but that was only the fifteenth strongest Leave area overall.
Best left alone, by us other regulars, to sit in the corner by himself whilst he mutters bitterly into his pint.
Who are these people and what is it with preferring England to Britain? I don't get it. Seriously, I don't know what is going on there.
I appreciate that those tainted will not see that for some time.
But I also had a couple of very wealthy homeowners around my area who egged me on.
You can't make assumptions about people.
In person, most were interested in what I had to say and listened.
If I (still) didn't feel so emotionally drained by the whole event, I might write up a full post match analysis on my blog.
Perhaps I will. Soon. Or soon-ish.
What a shame.
Eurosceptisism started as an intellectual movement, and just like scottish independence it added layer upon layer of red meat, until it reached it's maximum size without being inconsistent.
It's a coalition of different views and interests that built up over time, not a clear cut social class case.
Fortunately for Leave that maximum size was greater than 50% of the public, unlike 45% in Scotland.
' ◾The most expensive places to rent a room in the South East are large parts of Surrey, Oxfordshire and Tunbridge Wells in Kent
◾Renting a one bedroom property in the South East would be impossible within recommended limits everywhere except Medway, Hastings, Rother, Gosport, Dover, Shepway, Thanet and the Isle of Wight '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-36794222
You're upset about the vote, we get it. One sobering line I've found my Remainer friends have found useful is that for the last 4 decades a lot of people who voted Leave have experienced this disappoint on a daily basis.
Any reaction from the 'confident' Remain punter??
TBH I'm not sure. The weight of economic arguments for Remain was absolutely overwhelming. Did the public knowingly decide to accept the risks, or did they not believe them? Did we under-estimate economic confidence (voters thought they were safe to take the risk), or over-estimate it (voters thought they had nothing to lose)? Or was it different amongst different groups? Or did they knowingly prioritise sovereignty and/or immigration over economics?
The last sentence was the subject of one of my thread headers. But your preceding two penultimate sentences probably make more sense; many relatively wealthier voters decided they were insulated from any perceived economic issue, and many poorer voters unsurprisingly felt no resonance with 'Brexit will make you poor' arguments.
For me one of the biggest shocks was that I voted the same way as a business associate with almost diametric politics to me. Old fashioned, decent, principled socialist - not imbued with any of the 'right-on' ness of the modern pale imitation of a Labour party.
But the manner of Leave's victory is one which the nation will not recover from morally for many years. Every form of minority will now become fair game for populists to vilify. Because the referendum has shown that such a strategy can work.
For once we share the same democracy, the same language, and the same history with Scotland. The EU is neither a democracy, nor British, nor we have the same history.
Also Britain is more successful than the EU, unlike Scotland compared with the rest of the country, so there is more confidence on going it alone.
People on benefits and pensioners voted Leave.
The second aspect is one of belief as a signal of swinging a vote. I posted here that if there was a genuine sense that Leave could actually win, then it would win. Bearing in mind at the start the polls showed a decent gap, as time went on the feeling that Leave could do it became more real as polls showed the contest tightening up. That motivates, it brings those quiet voters out too. You could perhaps call it momentum but I'm not sure its quite the same.
Having said that, I don't think Leavers are stupid. Arguably, Remain had an arrogance and lack of curiosity about why people would want to leave the EU, that was stupid.
Then the question becomes, why did it happen this time? I wrote beforehand that it was hard to think of this kind of reaction against the government, the opposition, and the top runners of the country being voted for in England. Certainly not since the elections of the first two Labour ministries in the 1920s, and only in 1929 on a plurality of the vote. What was it about the campaign that was different this time? I do believe it was a mixture of sovereignty and immigration, and one cannot simply handwave away the immigration aspect of the campaign and ascribe the outcome solely to dry theoretical concepts of Westphalian statehood or romantic memories.