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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Local By-Elections : Previewed by Harry Hayfield
Irvine West (SNP defence) on North Ayrshire
Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 12, Labour 11, Independents 6, Conservative 1 (No Overall Control, SNP short by 4)
Result of ward at last election (2012):
0
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And second
Clinton 86.2 .. Trump 13.8 - Polls Only
Clinton 76.1 .. Trump 23.9 - Polls Plus
Clinton 88.7 .. Trump 11.2 - Nowcast
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now
The Trump collapse has not been uniform as his model assumes.
We have enough proof from enough state polls to disprove his model.
For instance N.Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and Missouri are on the edge according to state polls, but in his model there are not.
#FullOfBullishness or is it #FullOfBullshit
Clinton 45 .. Trump 44
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/OS-FL-General-8.11.16.pdf
Corbyn
Portsmouth, 75 to 13
Clacton, 49 to 21
Enfield North, 88 to 40
Sevenoaks
Bedford
Elmet and Rothwell, 68 to 32
Wellingborough
Blackley and Broughton, 74 to 15
Solihull
Halesowen and Rowley Regis
Mid Worcestershire
Hyndburn
South East Cambridgeshire
Winchester, 86 to 35
South Ribble
Smith
Twickenham, 76 to 70
Glasgow Cathcart
Ealing Central
Ayl
Batley and Spen
Galloway and West Dumfries
Dumfriesshire
Mitcham and Morden
Inverness & Nairn: 22 to 7
Greenock and Inverclyde
Uddingston and Bellshill
Rutherglen
Clydesdale
Corbyn:
Barrow and Furness: 100 to 36
Bolton West
Derbyshire Dales
Edinburgh Central, 43 to 24
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale
Bradford East 49 to 5
Bolton NE
Sefton Central 107 to 44
Torbay
Glasgow Soutshide
Aberdeen Donside: 13 to 4
North Shropshire
Midlothian North
Tottenham
Sherwood 52 to 12
Gloucester 80 to 23
Northampton North
Northampton South
Dundee East
Dundee West
Stalybridge and Hyde
Clydebank and Milngavie
It's 2030. You have £10 in your pocket. The EU fairy appears and gives you 40p. "Thanks for staying, here's your bonus".
"As the voting was explained, one woman asked, suspicion in her voice, how we knew the ballot boxes were empty, leading to the bizarre sight of party scrutineers carrying upside-down ballot boxes through the crowd so anyone who wanted to could check."
posted without comment
Kenya said sprint coach John Anzrah "presented himself as an athlete" and "even signed the documents" for the doping test.
Everyone can do it due to the small number of swing states, provided they look at the state polls, instead of the national polls.
"Clutching Momentum and socialist party banners, and placards reading ‘Geordies got ya back Corbyn’, the crowd swarmed around the Labour leader as he got out of his car. Owen Smith received no such welcome."
But also, professionals swung it, with 43% voting Leave, compared to the 35% or so that had been expected.
In truth, class, geography, social attitudes all interacted. In Essex or Kent say, most professional people likely voted Leave. In London or Surrey, they voted Remain.
Maine, New York and Florida are going to vote to the right of Pennsylvania and Georgia.
I suspect that when you strip out the remainder it will be very like the rest of the country - see Bexley/Havering etc.
UKIP are really the English (and to a degree Welsh) National Party.
Going to need to up it up for the final.
Corbyn says he can never say never, because there have been wars of liberation which should be fought. But he says there has to be a holistic approach to war and peace, mentioning arms sales to Saudi Arabia while the nation fights a war in Yemen.
First, what the f--- is a 'holistic approach to war and peace'?*
*ok, I know what it means in context, taking a joined up approach etc etc, but by gods I hate seeing that awful word, holistic, used in the context of something serious, since whatever it's actual meaning, what it usually signifies is bullsh*t.
Second, is a war powers act to ensure parliament has to vote on future wars really a good idea? What if immediate action is required? Given the need to act in emergencies, presumably there would be provisions to cover some action, so we'd get into the situation where we never ever declare war no matter how much we get involved.
Bless his heart, Smith is trying. He has forgotten that Corbyn's rebellions against the party are always justified. Even when rebelling while Leader.
Still peddling that one, are they?
Tories certainly implied Labour caused it, but as senior people as David Cameron in conference speeches specified Labour did not cause it, but that they made it worse and made recovery harder. People will disagree with that too, but despite the implication they caused it, maintaining the problem was too much stating Labour caused it is a comfort blanket.
Watching at the state polls right now, Hillary would win 291, Trump 144 and 103 EV would be too close to call.
Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Georgia, Missouri, Maine's CD-2, S.Carolina and N.Carolina would be too close to call, with Ohio and Nebraska's CD-2 just above that zone for Hillary.
I don't need Nate Silver to tell me that.
Now if Trump ever recovers, his recovery would probably be just as uneven as his slump.
But so far Pennsylvania, N.H and Maine are the states to watch to see if Trump has a chance.
Gordon is and was a moron
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTKORcr1jhY
Australian cricket star releases Bollywood film
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-37008172
But US Presidents have found a trick of ordering military action without a declaration of war, a very controversial tactic that has cost Presidents who use it a lot of political capital.
And has made the american public very sensitive to military action.
We didn't, and we haven't.
I find that very comforting and reassuring.
The cost and corruption associated with them at a time of economic and political crisis in Brazil has tarnished them.
These are the worst Olympics in a century.
But what can you expect ?
No country can withstand the burden of hosting both the World Cup and the Olympics in just 2 years.
And, even better, the roof didn't fall in.
Remainiacs really overplayed their hand, eh?
Of course Wales was also colonised and united with England well before Scotland but the Welsh still voted Leave
Remain lost not only because of swing areas, but because it didn't convince even in places where it should have won by miles.
Incidentally, Moray almost went Leave - Remain only carried it by a whisker. I really wish it had gone Leave to sour Sturgeon's EU milk.
In which case, I'll check out again.
But what's annoying me most today is a lot of 38degree hope-not-hate resharing about trying to boycott the Sun, Mail, and Express.
Or some such.
I automatically think less of any friend of mine who's posted it.
What is it about Facebook that can make you so angry at friends?
Even in Scotland Edinburgh had a higher Remain vote than Glasgow
Actually, to be fair, I'd say the referendum coverage was broadly balanced by the media, except for the BBC website pumping up a few stories for Remain - e.g. the Wollaston defection.
London obviously has benefited the most from the EU, along with those who make their vast fortunes in London (the Cotswold's), plus scotland and N.I. because they see the EU as a counter force to the english.
Breaking it by cosmopolitan finance and anti-english sentiment vs everyone else is a neat way.
You can't say that all multiculturals voted Remain, because heavy muslim areas didn't went for Remain outside of London.
For example, the hinterland of Cambridge, as well as Cambridge, being 'Remainy'. Plus Bristol, Exeter, Bath, Brighton, Norwich, Oxford, Cardiff and Manchester.
All places that are very left-liberal, yuppie, new worldy, hippy, internationalist, and middle class/graduatey.
I fear Winchester may be going that way too.
A good chunk of the commuter belt too - like Tunbridge Wells, Guildford, Thames Valley and St. Albans. But not all, and not everywhere. Probably status quo voters.
But, anyway, I've never felt as estranged from my own peer group as I have after this vote.
I thought he was going to burst a blood vessel in the days immediately after Brexit. Felt like reaching into the telly and saying "calm yourself Faisal. It may seem like the world has ended in London but life goes on for the rest of us".
The formidable Laura K was much more stoical about it all I felt.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
Indeed there was a far greater class divide in the EU referendum than there was at the last general election.
An intercept, especially of someone like Aaron Driver who wasn't just inspired but would have had an influencer or a network mentoring him for a bit, is an almost ideal in having an impact on the likes of IS and wannabe associates.
1. It raises security concerns and IS are paranoid about it. The use of an opponents paranoia is a good weapon in damaging and destroying them.
2. For a Jihadist, especially one without battlefield experience, the thought of not even having your moment of glory before you get a hole in your head is not attractive.
3. Thinking that could actually happen is going to change your behaviour and that can get you noticed.
As much of carrying out an intercept just before the act is risky, its absolutely blunt nature (mainly because the perpetrator ends up dying) really sends signals especially if it appears the police had time to prepare their move.
Sadly the source and nature of the information leading to Driver has come out, which is a balls.
On an unrelated note, Russia have a habit of doing military stuff near its borders in August and they certainly seem to be looking for (or creating) a precedent on the Crimean border with Ukraine.
Not far from where I live, true-blue, prosperous, middle-class Tunbridge Wells voted Remain, whereas just a few miles away true-blue, prosperous, middle-class Sevenoaks voted Leave. The demographics are very similar, except that, of the two, Sevenoaks is wealthier and more fully stuffed with commuting lawyers and bankers.
Too easy to fall into a trap of wealthy/educated = Remain, and poor/stupid = Leave.
Which many people do fall into, willingly, of course. Particularly Remainers.