Late Autumn/Spring next year is when it'll start to get fruity, with a burst of activity after the French/German elections.
Yes, this is very much the phoney war period.
The politics and actual mechanics of Brexit are horrendously complicated. What I hadn't fully appreciated until now is that, never mind negotiating with our 27 EU friends, we'll also need to negotiate a new status within the WTO - an organisation necessarily so sclerotic because of its 170 members that it makes the EU look like a model of quick decisiveness. The problem is that, although we are members of the WTO in our own right, all of the tariff schedules and other WTO arrangements we are currently signed up to will have to be re-negotiated because they exist only as part of our EU membership - and that's just to maintain the current trading position with non-EU countries. That includes negotiating with countries like Argentina which are not well-disposed towards us.
That is of course separate from the challenge of trying to do new trade deals, but interacts with it. For example, the EU-Korea trade deal contains a clause saying Korea can't grant more favourable terms to anyone else.
Overall, as the dust has settled after the referendum the challenge looks no easier than it did before. If anything, it looks worse as attention has belatedly begun to be given to what should actually happen.
I was looking at rebalancing my portfolio back towards the UK to take advantage of some of the price drops of UK-focused companies, which I'd thought were overdone. But, having looked a bit more at the detail, I've decided to do the opposite; the prospects for the UK over the next few years look pretty dire to me.
You aren't very good on EU predictions though, are you Richard? 70:30 REMAIN?
Has he ever acknowledged this? Whatever happened to humble pie?
It died along with magnanimous in Victory, gracious in Defeat...
There were murmurings throughout that Remain were worried (the impromptu little speech, late in the day, in front of Number Ten, for example).
Not to mention the approach taken was plain stupid regardless. Imagine Remain had won by four points. Right now there'd be a huge number of 'little Englanders' Cameron had insulted. Electorally [for now, at least] the Conservative could've lost a large number of votes to UKIP.
Late Autumn/Spring next year is when it'll start to get fruity, with a burst of activity after the French/German elections.
Yes, this is very much the phoney war period.
The politics and actual mechanics of Brexit are horrendously complicated. What I hadn't fully appreciated until now is that, never mind negotiating with our 27 EU friends, we'll also need to negotiate a new status within the WTO - an organisation necessarily so sclerotic because of its 170 members that it makes the EU look like a model of quick decisiveness. The problem is that, although we are members of the WTO in our own right, all of the tariff schedules and other WTO arrangements we are currently signed up to will have to be re-negotiated because they exist only as part of our EU membership - and that's just to maintain the current trading position with non-EU countries. That includes negotiating with countries like Argentina which are not well-disposed towards us.
That is of course separate from the challenge of trying to do new trade deals, but interacts with it. For example, the EU-Korea trade deal contains a clause saying Korea can't grant more favourable terms to anyone else.
Overall, as the dust has settled after the referendum the challenge looks no easier than it did before. If anything, it looks worse as attention has belatedly begun to be given to what should actually happen.
I was looking at rebalancing my portfolio back towards the UK to take advantage of some of the price drops of UK-focused companies, which I'd thought were overdone. But, having looked a bit more at the detail, I've decided to do the opposite; the prospects for the UK over the next few years look pretty dire to me.
But haven't we signed and sealed trade deals with nearly thirty new countries already? I read it in the Daily Express.
Mr. Betting, is that true, though? There were murmurings throughout that Remain were worried (the impromptu little speech, late in the day, in front of Number Ten, for example). Not to mention the approach taken was plain stupid regardless. Imagine Remain had won by four points. Right now there'd be a huge number of 'little Englanders' Cameron had insulted. Electorally [for now, at least] the Conservative could've lost a large number of votes to UKIP.
There have been a few from the REMAIN team saying they were misled by the polls. Craig Oliver stated that in last night's Kuensberg programme on BBC2.
As to the stupidity of Cameron's approach he and Osborne did not care about the aftermath inside the Conservative party.
Late Autumn/Spring next year is when it'll start to get fruity, with a burst of activity after the French/German elections.
Yes, this is very much the phoney war period.
The politics and actual mechanics of Brexit are horrendously complicated. What I hadn't fully appreciated until now is that, never mind negotiating with our 27 EU friends, we'll also need to negotiate a new status within the WTO - an organisation necessarily so sclerotic because of its 170 members that it makes the EU look like a model of quick decisiveness. The problem is that, although we are members of the WTO in our own right, all of the tariff schedules and other WTO arrangements we are currently signed up to will have to be re-negotiated because they exist only as part of our EU membership - and that's just to maintain the current trading position with non-EU countries. That includes negotiating with countries like Argentina which are not well-disposed towards us.
That is of course separate from the challenge of trying to do new trade deals, but interacts with it. For example, the EU-Korea trade deal contains a clause saying Korea can't grant more favourable terms to anyone else.
Overall, as the dust has settled after the referendum the challenge looks no easier than it did before. If anything, it looks worse as attention has belatedly begun to be given to what should actually happen.
I was looking at rebalancing my portfolio back towards the UK to take advantage of some of the price drops of UK-focused companies, which I'd thought were overdone. But, having looked a bit more at the detail, I've decided to do the opposite; the prospects for the UK over the next few years look pretty dire to me.
You aren't very good on EU predictions though, are you Richard? 70:30 REMAIN?
Has he ever acknowledged this? Whatever happened to humble pie?
Late Autumn/Spring next year is when it'll start to get fruity, with a burst of activity after the French/German elections.
Yes, this is very much the phoney war period.
The politics and actual mechanics of Brexit are horrendously complicated. What I hadn't fully appreciated until now is that, never mind negotiating with our 27 EU friends, we'll also need to negotiate a new status within the WTO - an organisation necessarily so sclerotic because of its 170 members that it makes the EU look like a model of quick decisiveness. The problem is that, although we are members of the WTO in our own right, all of the tariff schedules and other WTO arrangements we are currently signed up to will have to be re-negotiated because they exist only as part of our EU membership - and that's just to maintain the current trading position with non-EU countries. That includes negotiating with countries like Argentina which are not well-disposed towards us.
That is of course separate from the challenge of trying to do new trade deals, but interacts with it. For example, the EU-Korea trade deal contains a clause saying Korea can't grant more favourable terms to anyone else.
Overall, as the dust has settled after the referendum the challenge looks no easier than it did before. If anything, it looks worse as attention has belatedly begun to be given to what should actually happen.
I was looking at rebalancing my portfolio back towards the UK to take advantage of some of the price drops of UK-focused companies, which I'd thought were overdone. But, having looked a bit more at the detail, I've decided to do the opposite; the prospects for the UK over the next few years look pretty dire to me.
But haven't we signed and sealed trade deals with nearly thirty new countries already? I read it in the Daily Express.
Has he ever acknowledged this? Whatever happened to humble pie?
Yes, one of my dedicated fans reminded us last night that, amongst my 11,800 Vanilla posts, there was one where I said that rather than the 60:40 which had been my long-term forecast, the Leave campaign were making such a hash of it that it looked more like 70:30 (this was in May).
It turned out I was wrong, which I realised in time to make a profit on the result.
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
On Norway: I voted to Leave based on the unacceptable and worsening situation of foreign, unelected bureaucrats continually eroding sovereignty. Of course, I want the UK to be as prosperous as possible, but if you subvert sovereignty for trade you prefer a gilded cage to a humble home of your own.
The EU is an unsound organisation. It'll crumble, and there will be substantial, perhaps even terrible, consequences when it does. The sooner we're out, the better.
Edited extra bit: I'd add that whilst short term economic turbulence is nigh on certain, I believe long term prosperity is better suited to being able to manage our own affairs rather than trusting foreign bureaucrats to do so in our behalf whilst simultaneously considering the desires of 27 other countries.
When a big name Republican endorses her. I'm talking a former POTUS, VPOTUS, GOP nominees, or a plethora of Senators/Governors do so in a coordinated manner.
Shouldn't the leader of a regional or county authority be called something other than "mayor"? It seems like yet another politically-motivated stretching of the English language. People would think you were an idiot if you said you were the mayor of Hertfordshire.
Has he ever acknowledged this? Whatever happened to humble pie?
Yes, one of my dedicated fans reminded us last night that, amongst my 11,800 Vanilla posts, there was one where I said that rather than the 60:40 which had been my long-term forecast, the Leave campaign were making such a hash of it that it looked more like 70:30 (this was in May).
It turned out I was wrong, which I realised in time to make a profit on the result.
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
Was it? I thought the idea was to leave the single market and seek a UK/EU FTA.
Shouldn't the leader of a regional or county authority be called something other than "mayor"? It seems like yet another politically-motivated stretching of the English language. People would think you were an idiot if you said you were the mayor of Hertfordshire.
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
There are two separate parts: EFTA and the EEA. To join EFTA we'd need the unanimous consent of the existing four members. To modify the EEA treaties to transfer from being EU members to non-EU members we'd need the unanimous consent of the three EEA/EFTA countries plus the EU27.
In addition, to re-work our WTO membership to separate our position from that of the EU we'll need to work through the WTO processes, involving 160 countries.
Lord only knows how Theresa May and her band can untangle that lot in any reasonable timescale.
Shouldn't the leader of a regional or county authority be called something other than "mayor"? It seems like yet another politically-motivated stretching of the English language. People would think you were an idiot if you said you were the mayor of Hertfordshire.
Presumably he will remind them that their Europhilia is massively out of line with the Norwegian people...
How do you manage to construe a possible attempt to block the accession of the UK to a European institution for reasons of national interest as "Europhilia"? Edit: Or was this some sort of subtle irony that eluded me?
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
Was it? I thought the idea was to leave the single market and seek a UK/EU FTA.
So we’d be like Norway (etc) but different? Norway without free movement? What’s the quid pro quo?
If I was a Brussels bureaucrat or indeed Minister I’d be seriously hacked off at the prospect of negotiating something slightly diferent with someone else while I was much more worried about terrorism and the euro, to name but two.
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
There are two separate parts: EFTA and the EEA. To join EFTA we'd need the unanimous consent of the existing four members. To modify the EEA treaties to transfer from being EU members to non-EU members we'd need the unanimous consent of the three EEA/EFTA countries plus the EU27.
In addition, to re-work our WTO membership to separate our position from that of the EU we'll need to work through the WTO processes, involving 160 countries.
Lord only knows how Theresa May and her band can untangle that lot in any reasonable timescale.
Do you have a link to a discussion on the WTO issue? I don't think it was raised once during the campaign when it would have been quite relevant.
When a big name Republican endorses her. I'm talking a former POTUS, VPOTUS, GOP nominees, or a plethora of Senators/Governors do so in a coordinated manner.
Perhaps they could invite the British Foreign Secretary to tell them that electing Trump will send the US to the back of the queue for a UK trade deal. Not to mention Lagarde and Yellen.
Seriously, I doubt any meaningful big name Republicans would ever endorse Hillary. There's too much history between her and the Republican party.
If the EFTA thing falls through and we're left high and dry, how long before a sizeable section of Tory MPs get cold feet and start agitating for a delay and a rethink? It's one thing to advocate leaving the EU in abstract; quite another when the living standards of your constituents are plummeting and you've got a seat to retain. As we saw with lots of Ozzy's tax reforms, many Tory MPs turn out to be gutless wonders when it gets too close to home. Interesting to see how they carry on when the Brexit honeymoon is over.
Presumably he will remind them that their Europhilia is massively out of line with the Norwegian people...
How do you manage to construe a possible attempt to block the accession of the UK to a European institution for reasons of national interest as "Europhilia"? Edit: Or was this some sort of subtle irony that eluded me?
They don't want anyone else to vote to Leave the EU.
Shouldn't the leader of a regional or county authority be called something other than "mayor"? It seems like yet another politically-motivated stretching of the English language. People would think you were an idiot if you said you were the mayor of Hertfordshire.
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
Was it? I thought the idea was to leave the single market and seek a UK/EU FTA.
So we’d be like Norway (etc) but different? Norway without free movement? What’s the quid pro quo?
If I was a Brussels bureaucrat or indeed Minister I’d be seriously hacked off at the prospect of negotiating something slightly diferent with someone else while I was much more worried about terrorism and the euro, to name but two.
Granting them access to the UK Single Market where they have a £100bn trade surplus.
Presumably he will remind them that their Europhilia is massively out of line with the Norwegian people...
How do you manage to construe a possible attempt to block the accession of the UK to a European institution for reasons of national interest as "Europhilia"? Edit: Or was this some sort of subtle irony that eluded me?
They don't want anyone else to vote to Leave the EU.
Why would Norway care if anyone else votes to leave the EU?
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
There are two separate parts: EFTA and the EEA. To join EFTA we'd need the unanimous consent of the existing four members. To modify the EEA treaties to transfer from being EU members to non-EU members we'd need the unanimous consent of the three EEA/EFTA countries plus the EU27.
In addition, to re-work our WTO membership to separate our position from that of the EU we'll need to work through the WTO processes, involving 160 countries.
Lord only knows how Theresa May and her band can untangle that lot in any reasonable timescale.
Do you have a link to a discussion on the WTO issue? I don't think it was raised once during the campaign when it would have been quite relevant.
There was, I’m certain, never any discussion (TBF from either side) of there being any query over us re-joining EFTA.
@JeremyCliffe: The shape of Brexit will emerge slowly: a spasmodic series of disappointments, the reporting of which will be branded "talking down Britain"
@JeremyCliffe: Concluding in about 2025 with an access/trade/migration settlement somewhat unsatisfactory to all and for which Remainers will be blamed
Well, of course it would shift the balance of the organisation. That is why it has never been a likely option. Nice to see some of the people who wanted to us remain to remain in the EU slowly starting to wake up.
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
Was it? I thought the idea was to leave the single market and seek a UK/EU FTA.
They had no idea at all they were prepared to commit to. Nor do they now. Do you think Theresa May would be going around parroting "Brexit means Brexit" if she had the slightest INKLING what Brexit does actually mean?
Cheers. Surprised the remain side didn't make more hay of this in the campaign, although I suppose it is very dry so may not cut through as much. Ho hum.
And Sion Simon is the Labour candidate for West Midlands Mayor
That is the potentially the most interesting contest. A donkey with a red rosette would surely win a Corbyn-led election in Manchester, London, Bristol, Leeds, Liverpool or Newcastle. The university graduates and undergraduates who, heaven help them, think Corbyn is the Jezziah rather than a creepy and unpleasant weirdo with a long track of record of failure and dishonesty when allied to the tribal Labour vote should see them home comfortably.
However, if there is one major city which encapsulates the disaffection of Labour voters from the wealthy metropolitan virtue signallers, it is Birmingham. Although it has several universities, most of them are quite small and very few graduates live in it. There is a large ethnic minority population and a large, effectively disenfranchised working class. The city has a big UKIP presence and still has pockets where the Conservatives are strong.
On top of this, while there may be a weaker candidate than Sion Simon, it is hard to think who it could be. He has the intellectual capacity of a village idiot, the charisma of a weighing machine, the political acumen of a Donald Trump crossed with the bloke who came up with Hilary's email defence, the charm of a Thameslink official and the efficiency of an Easyjet baggage handler. He won two elections in Erdington more or less by default, and his journalistic career was famously marked by The Spectator describing his as a Telegraph columnist and The Daily Telegraph describing him as 'associate editor of The Spectator.'
A strong UKIP candidate or even a decent working-class Conservative could easily spring a surprise there. Of course, that does presuppose they can find such candidates. But I would say he's no more than about a 3-1 shot at the moment.
Indeed Birmingham was one of the few big cities which voted Leave
Only narrowly. We actually got the seat by seat totals - can dig out.
Anyway, the third paragraph made me laugh massively. Thanks.
Incidentally, I went to see Tristram Hunt talk at our uni and it came across as a bid for the mayoralty
Your welcome. Which uni was that? Presumably representing Stoke has raised Hunt's ambition to even greater heights!
Aston, hence the reply to a post about Birmingham's mayor.
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
There are two separate parts: EFTA and the EEA. To join EFTA we'd need the unanimous consent of the existing four members. To modify the EEA treaties to transfer from being EU members to non-EU members we'd need the unanimous consent of the three EEA/EFTA countries plus the EU27.
In addition, to re-work our WTO membership to separate our position from that of the EU we'll need to work through the WTO processes, involving 160 countries.
Lord only knows how Theresa May and her band can untangle that lot in any reasonable timescale.
Do you have a link to a discussion on the WTO issue? I don't think it was raised once during the campaign when it would have been quite relevant.
I think the Remain campaign has now shifted gear from voting to leave the EU is unthinkable (wrong answer: please re-run the vote) to acknowledging the referendum result, but pointing out that leaving the EU is practically impossible, so we may as well stay or as good as.
They had no idea at all they were prepared to commit to. Nor do they now. Do you think Theresa May would be going around parroting "Brexit means Brexit" if she had the slightest INKLING what Brexit does actually mean?
Theresa May isn't stupid. She can parrot 'Brexit means Brexit' almost indefinitely. British negotiations to leave might become as nebulous as Turkish negotiations to join.
If the EFTA thing falls through and we're left high and dry, how long before a sizeable section of Tory MPs get cold feet and start agitating for a delay and a rethink? It's one thing to advocate leaving the EU in abstract; quite another when the living standards of your constituents are plummeting and you've got a seat to retain. As we saw with lots of Ozzy's tax reforms, many Tory MPs turn out to be gutless wonders when it gets too close to home. Interesting to see how they carry on when the Brexit honeymoon is over.
Presumably he will remind them that their Europhilia is massively out of line with the Norwegian people...
How do you manage to construe a possible attempt to block the accession of the UK to a European institution for reasons of national interest as "Europhilia"? Edit: Or was this some sort of subtle irony that eluded me?
They don't want anyone else to vote to Leave the EU.
Why would Norway care if anyone else votes to leave the EU?
Euromaniac Norwegian politicians care because the more countries that Leave, the less likely they will be to con their people into joining.
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
There are two separate parts: EFTA and the EEA. To join EFTA we'd need the unanimous consent of the existing four members. To modify the EEA treaties to transfer from being EU members to non-EU members we'd need the unanimous consent of the three EEA/EFTA countries plus the EU27.
In addition, to re-work our WTO membership to separate our position from that of the EU we'll need to work through the WTO processes, involving 160 countries.
Lord only knows how Theresa May and her band can untangle that lot in any reasonable timescale.
Probably, in the same way as Remain were going to win 60:40, or maybe even 70:30, or all the prophesies of project fear have come about.
Interesting that the Conservative Party, of which you if I remember, have been a long term supporter, has now become "Theresa May and her band".
Thank you very much for your thoughtful reply. I won't hijack this thread and I'm sure there will be plenty of opportunities to debate these issues in the future.
Can I say that I wholeheartedly agree with this sentence: "The fact that taxation appears to be more or less voluntary for multinationals and wealthy individuals is seen as offensive and a genuine problem way beyond Labour ranks."
It feels as if only mugs like me pay their taxes in full. Not good and not fair.
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
There are two separate parts: EFTA and the EEA. To join EFTA we'd need the unanimous consent of the existing four members. To modify the EEA treaties to transfer from being EU members to non-EU members we'd need the unanimous consent of the three EEA/EFTA countries plus the EU27.
In addition, to re-work our WTO membership to separate our position from that of the EU we'll need to work through the WTO processes, involving 160 countries.
Lord only knows how Theresa May and her band can untangle that lot in any reasonable timescale.
Do you have a link to a discussion on the WTO issue? I don't think it was raised once during the campaign when it would have been quite relevant.
I think the Remain campaign has now shifted gear from voting to leave the EU is unthinkable (wrong answer: please re-run the vote) to acknowledging the referendum result, but pointing out that leaving the EU is practically impossible, so we may as well stay or as good as.
I always assumed we hired lawyers and civil servants to sort out administrative details.
Well, of course it would shift the balance of the organisation. That is why it has never been a likely option. Nice to see some of the people who wanted to us remain to remain in the EU slowly starting to wake up.
I actually wondered if Britain wading in would be to the benefit of the existing EFTA members and might they not they veto it. However, I kept my council, intimidated by the likes of Richard Tyndall and his vast mind, who suggested it was a fait accompli.
Presumably he will remind them that their Europhilia is massively out of line with the Norwegian people...
How do you manage to construe a possible attempt to block the accession of the UK to a European institution for reasons of national interest as "Europhilia"? Edit: Or was this some sort of subtle irony that eluded me?
They don't want anyone else to vote to Leave the EU.
Why would Norway care if anyone else votes to leave the EU?
Euromaniac Norwegian politicians care because the more countries that Leave, the less likely they will be to con their people into joining.
The same politicians that are held back from joining the EU due to their own people being against it (from 50% against in 2010 to 70% against in 2016).
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
There are two separate parts: EFTA and the EEA. To join EFTA we'd need the unanimous consent of the existing four members. To modify the EEA treaties to transfer from being EU members to non-EU members we'd need the unanimous consent of the three EEA/EFTA countries plus the EU27.
In addition, to re-work our WTO membership to separate our position from that of the EU we'll need to work through the WTO processes, involving 160 countries.
Lord only knows how Theresa May and her band can untangle that lot in any reasonable timescale.
Do you have a link to a discussion on the WTO issue? I don't think it was raised once during the campaign when it would have been quite relevant.
I think the Remain campaign has now shifted gear from voting to leave the EU is unthinkable (wrong answer: please re-run the vote) to acknowledging the referendum result, but pointing out that leaving the EU is practically impossible, so we may as well stay or as good as.
Interesting that the Conservative Party, of which you if I remember, have been a long term supporter, has now become "Theresa May and her band".
Well, I've never made any secret of the fact that I don't rate Liam Fox, DD or Boris. None of them seems to me to be well qualified or have the right temperament for this incredibly difficult task.
I very much supported Theresa May as leader, but she's got a near-impossible job. I've also been a bit dismayed by some of her early decisions - at a time when we desperately need to build international alliances, was it really a good idea to piss off the Chinese so rudely, for example? We'll see how things turn out, but I'm not optimistic.
And Sion Simon is the Labour candidate for West Midlands Mayor
That is the potentially the most interesting contest. A donkey with a red rosette would surely win a Corbyn-led election in Manchester, London, Bristol, Leeds, Liverpool or Newcastle. The university graduates and undergraduates who, heaven help them, think Corbyn is the Jezziah rather than a creepy and unpleasant weirdo with a long track of record of failure and dishonesty when allied to the tribal Labour vote should see them home comfortably.
However, if there is one major city which encapsulates the disaffection of Labour voters from the wealthy metropolitan virtue signallers, it is Birmingham. Although it has several universities, most of them are quite small and very few graduates live in it. There is a large ethnic minority population and a large, effectively disenfranchised working class. The city has a big UKIP presence and still has pockets where the Conservatives are strong.
On top of this, while there may be a weaker candidate than Sion Simon, it is hard to think who it could be. He has the intellectual capacity of a village idiot, the charisma of a weighing machine, the political acumen of a Donald Trump crossed with the bloke who came up with Hilary's email defence, the charm of a Thameslink official and the efficiency of an Easyjet baggage handler. He won two elections in Erdington more or less by default, and his journalistic career was famously marked by The Spectator describing his as a Telegraph columnist and The Daily Telegraph describing him as 'associate editor of The Spectator.'
A strong UKIP candidate or even a decent working-class Conservative could easily spring a surprise there. Of course, that does presuppose they can find such candidates. But I would say he's no more than about a 3-1 shot at the moment.
Indeed Birmingham was one of the few big cities which voted Leave
Only narrowly. We actually got the seat by seat totals - can dig out.
Anyway, the third paragraph made me laugh massively. Thanks.
Incidentally, I went to see Tristram Hunt talk at our uni and it came across as a bid for the mayoralty
Your welcome. Which uni was that? Presumably representing Stoke has raised Hunt's ambition to even greater heights!
Aston, hence the reply to a post about Birmingham's mayor.
Presumably he will remind them that their Europhilia is massively out of line with the Norwegian people...
How do you manage to construe a possible attempt to block the accession of the UK to a European institution for reasons of national interest as "Europhilia"? Edit: Or was this some sort of subtle irony that eluded me?
They don't want anyone else to vote to Leave the EU.
Why would Norway care if anyone else votes to leave the EU?
Euromaniac Norwegian politicians care because the more countries that Leave, the less likely they will be to con their people into joining.
The same politicians that are held back from joining the EU due to their own people being against it (from 50% against in 2010 to 70% against in 2016).
Indeed. But they're very keen for it not to slip any further.
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
There are two separate parts: EFTA and the EEA. To join EFTA we'd need the unanimous consent of the existing four members. To modify the EEA treaties to transfer from being EU members to non-EU members we'd need the unanimous consent of the three EEA/EFTA countries plus the EU27.
In addition, to re-work our WTO membership to separate our position from that of the EU we'll need to work through the WTO processes, involving 160 countries.
Lord only knows how Theresa May and her band can untangle that lot in any reasonable timescale.
Do you have a link to a discussion on the WTO issue? I don't think it was raised once during the campaign when it would have been quite relevant.
I think the Remain campaign has now shifted gear from voting to leave the EU is unthinkable (wrong answer: please re-run the vote) to acknowledging the referendum result, but pointing out that leaving the EU is practically impossible, so we may as well stay or as good as.
Thats them just moving on to the next stage of grief. Now some have moved to negotiation. Some of course are still trapped in anger or even denial. Most will get to acceptance in due course, but a very few probably never will, they are to be pitied, because they will live out the rest of their lives trapped in emotions they can't understand or control.
Well, of course it would shift the balance of the organisation. That is why it has never been a likely option. Nice to see some of the people who wanted to us remain to remain in the EU slowly starting to wake up.
EFTA will also look upon a shrunken EU, with a smaller economy, a smaller consumer base and one of the wealthiest members walking out.
When they struck their deals, did the EU mention that to them?
Presumably he will remind them that their Europhilia is massively out of line with the Norwegian people...
How do you manage to construe a possible attempt to block the accession of the UK to a European institution for reasons of national interest as "Europhilia"? Edit: Or was this some sort of subtle irony that eluded me?
They don't want anyone else to vote to Leave the EU.
Why would Norway care if anyone else votes to leave the EU?
Euromaniac Norwegian politicians care because the more countries that Leave, the less likely they will be to con their people into joining.
The same politicians that are held back from joining the EU due to their own people being against it (from 50% against in 2010 to 70% against in 2016).
Indeed. But they're very keen for it not to slip any further.
It seems beyond hopeless. Two failed referendums and a 40 point lead for No
Shouldn't the leader of a regional or county authority be called something other than "mayor"? It seems like yet another politically-motivated stretching of the English language. People would think you were an idiot if you said you were the mayor of Hertfordshire.
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
There are two separate parts: EFTA and the EEA. To join EFTA we'd need the unanimous consent of the existing four members. To modify the EEA treaties to transfer from being EU members to non-EU members we'd need the unanimous consent of the three EEA/EFTA countries plus the EU27.
In addition, to re-work our WTO membership to separate our position from that of the EU we'll need to work through the WTO processes, involving 160 countries.
Lord only knows how Theresa May and her band can untangle that lot in any reasonable timescale.
Do you have a link to a discussion on the WTO issue? I don't think it was raised once during the campaign when it would have been quite relevant.
I think the Remain campaign has now shifted gear from voting to leave the EU is unthinkable (wrong answer: please re-run the vote) to acknowledging the referendum result, but pointing out that leaving the EU is practically impossible, so we may as well stay or as good as.
I always assumed we hired lawyers and civil servants to sort out administrative details.
I'm not too worried about organisations like the WTO.
Whatever the letter of the wording of the treaties say, the U.K. as the 5th/6th largest economy in the world isn't going to be punted out as a result of domestic political decision it's taken about its future and its allies have promised to respect.
I expect the existing arrangement the UK has through its membership of the EU will be ported across or a way to achieve the same, technocratically, will be found.
Given how much we speculated here about the chances of either Trump or Clinton somehow not being nominated, what do we think are chances that either of them might be forced out before November?
There's already been plenty of crap thrown over both of them, and no doubt a load more of that to come between now and the election, as well as health rumours and the possibility of something tragic happening.
If we think it's more than a couple of percent chance, is it not therefore better to lay candidates rather than back their opponent, which would also cover the possibility of some unknown third person winning?
That's one way of playing it. I've only looked at the Republicans, but the combined price of all the possible replacements for Trump (Ryan, Pence, Kasich, and throw in Cruz, Rubio and even Bush) is a fraction of the price of laying Trump. And if Trump crashes, there will be no need to wait until election day because the odds on of one of those figures will shorten dramatically right away.
At least three women have accused Trump of rape or attempted rape, in one case when the alleged victim was aged 13. He denies all of the allegations. Last month the Guardian published an interview with one alleged victim, Jill Harth, here.
The New York Times conducted more than 50 interviews with men and women who have observed Trump's conduct since his adolescence:
"Their accounts — many relayed here in their own words — reveal unwelcome romantic advances, unending commentary on the female form, a shrewd reliance on ambitious women, and unsettling workplace conduct, according to the interviews, as well as court records and written recollections. The interactions occurred in his offices at Trump Tower, at his homes, at construction sites and backstage at beauty pageants. They appeared to be fleeting, unimportant moments to him, but they left lasting impressions on the women who experienced them."
Trump has certainly abused women verbally in ways that show he has got a serious problem. He told a lawyer who was about to a take a prearranged courtroom break to express milk for her baby that she was "disgusting". (Her account is here: "He had an absolute meltdown (...) He shook his finger at me and he screamed 'You're disgusting! You're disgusting!'")
After Megyn Kelly, a journalist, had bested him by asking him tough questions he couldn't answer well, he commented that she had "blood coming out of eyes, blood coming out of her wherever". Here he is, saying those words, in context. He went on to say "I couldn't care less about her".
Thank you very much for your thoughtful reply. I won't hijack this thread and I'm sure there will be plenty of opportunities to debate these issues in the future.
Can I say that I wholeheartedly agree with this sentence: "The fact that taxation appears to be more or less voluntary for multinationals and wealthy individuals is seen as offensive and a genuine problem way beyond Labour ranks."
It feels as if only mugs like me pay their taxes in full. Not good and not fair.
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
There are two separate parts: EFTA and the EEA. To join EFTA we'd need the unanimous consent of the existing four members. To modify the EEA treaties to transfer from being EU members to non-EU members we'd need the unanimous consent of the three EEA/EFTA countries plus the EU27.
In addition, to re-work our WTO membership to separate our position from that of the EU we'll need to work through the WTO processes, involving 160 countries.
Lord only knows how Theresa May and her band can untangle that lot in any reasonable timescale.
Do you have a link to a discussion on the WTO issue? I don't think it was raised once during the campaign when it would have been quite relevant.
I think the Remain campaign has now shifted gear from voting to leave the EU is unthinkable (wrong answer: please re-run the vote) to acknowledging the referendum result, but pointing out that leaving the EU is practically impossible, so we may as well stay or as good as.
Thats them just moving on to the next stage of grief. Now some have moved to negotiation. Some of course are still trapped in anger or even denial. Most will get to acceptance in due course, but a very few probably never will, they are to be pitied, because they will live out the rest of their lives trapped in emotions they can't understand or control.
Of course if Remain HAD won the Leavers would have accepted it with a good grace and gone quiet. Just like they did last time, eh?
If the EFTA thing falls through and we're left high and dry, how long before a sizeable section of Tory MPs get cold feet and start agitating for a delay and a rethink? It's one thing to advocate leaving the EU in abstract; quite another when the living standards of your constituents are plummeting and you've got a seat to retain. As we saw with lots of Ozzy's tax reforms, many Tory MPs turn out to be gutless wonders when it gets too close to home. Interesting to see how they carry on when the Brexit honeymoon is over.
The trouble with the Leavers vote is that it was a coalition of many different and conflicting ideas. As concrete decisions begin to be made there will be some unhappy people.
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
There are two separate parts: EFTA and the EEA. To join EFTA we'd need the unanimous consent of the existing four members. To modify the EEA treaties to transfer from being EU members to non-EU members we'd need the unanimous consent of the three EEA/EFTA countries plus the EU27.
In addition, to re-work our WTO membership to separate our position from that of the EU we'll need to work through the WTO processes, involving 160 countries.
Lord only knows how Theresa May and her band can untangle that lot in any reasonable timescale.
Do you have a link to a discussion on the WTO issue? I don't think it was raised once during the campaign when it would have been quite relevant.
I think the Remain campaign has now shifted gear from voting to leave the EU is unthinkable (wrong answer: please re-run the vote) to acknowledging the referendum result, but pointing out that leaving the EU is practically impossible, so we may as well stay or as good as.
Thats them just moving on to the next stage of grief. Now some have moved to negotiation. Some of course are still trapped in anger or even denial. Most will get to acceptance in due course, but a very few probably never will, they are to be pitied, because they will live out the rest of their lives trapped in emotions they can't understand or control.
Of course if Remain HAD won the Leavers would have accepted it with a good grace and gone quiet. Just like they did last time, eh?
To be fair it was another 40 years before another vote on the matter!
Anyway, the answer is simple: move into (or in my case, stay in) US-dollar denominated assets and income streams, especially since the risk of President Trump seems to be receding.
Anyway, the answer is simple: move into (or in my case, stay in) US-dollar denominated assets, especially since the risk of President Trump seems to be receding.
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
There are two separate parts: EFTA and the EEA. To join EFTA we'd need the unanimous consent of the existing four members. To modify the EEA treaties to transfer from being EU members to non-EU members we'd need the unanimous consent of the three EEA/EFTA countries plus the EU27.
In addition, to re-work our WTO membership to separate our position from that of the EU we'll need to work through the WTO processes, involving 160 countries.
Lord only knows how Theresa May and her band can untangle that lot in any reasonable timescale.
Do you have a link to a discussion on the WTO issue? I don't think it was raised once during the campaign when it would have been quite relevant.
I think the Remain campaign has now shifted gear from voting to leave the EU is unthinkable (wrong answer: please re-run the vote) to acknowledging the referendum result, but pointing out that leaving the EU is practically impossible, so we may as well stay or as good as.
Thats them just moving on to the next stage of grief. Now some have moved to negotiation. Some of course are still trapped in anger or even denial. Most will get to acceptance in due course, but a very few probably never will, they are to be pitied, because they will live out the rest of their lives trapped in emotions they can't understand or control.
Of course if Remain HAD won the Leavers would have accepted it with a good grace and gone quiet. Just like they did last time, eh?
To be fair it was another 40 years before another vote on the matter!
And to be fair from my side, there was such a head of steam that something had to happen.
Interesting that the Conservative Party, of which you if I remember, have been a long term supporter, has now become "Theresa May and her band".
Well, I've never made any secret of the fact that I don't rate Liam Fox, DD or Boris. None of them seems to me to be well qualified or have the right temperament for this incredibly difficult task.
I very much supported Theresa May as leader, but she's got a near-impossible job. I've also been a bit dismayed by some of her early decisions - at a time when we desperately need to build international alliances, was it really a good idea to piss off the Chinese so rudely, for example? We'll see how things turn out, but I'm not optimistic.
Mr. N., if you are talking about the decision to have a think about Hinkley Point, then TM was in my view absolutely correct, and if that pisses off the Chinese well, such is life and that is what the FCO is for.
The Hinkley Point project is in my view an abomination at every level. I hope HMG scraps it.
If the EFTA thing falls through and we're left high and dry, how long before a sizeable section of Tory MPs get cold feet and start agitating for a delay and a rethink? It's one thing to advocate leaving the EU in abstract; quite another when the living standards of your constituents are plummeting and you've got a seat to retain. As we saw with lots of Ozzy's tax reforms, many Tory MPs turn out to be gutless wonders when it gets too close to home. Interesting to see how they carry on when the Brexit honeymoon is over.
The trouble with the Leavers vote is that it was a coalition of many different and conflicting ideas. As concrete decisions begin to be made there will be some unhappy people.
To be concrete right now: most Leave voters thought leaving the EU would or at least might put a stop to mass immigration, and it will soon percolate their bonces that it won't, because big business and the political class love mass immigration and will keep it up.
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
There are two separate parts: EFTA and the EEA. To join EFTA we'd need the unanimous consent of the existing four members. To modify the EEA treaties to transfer from being EU members to non-EU members we'd need the unanimous consent of the three EEA/EFTA countries plus the EU27.
In addition, to re-work our WTO membership to separate our position from that of the EU we'll need to work through the WTO processes, involving 160 countries.
Lord only knows how Theresa May and her band can untangle that lot in any reasonable timescale.
Do you have a link to a discussion on the WTO issue? I don't think it was raised once during the campaign when it would have been quite relevant.
I think the Remain campaign has now shifted gear from voting to leave the EU is unthinkable (wrong answer: please re-run the vote) to acknowledging the referendum result, but pointing out that leaving the EU is practically impossible, so we may as well stay or as good as.
Thats them just moving on to the next stage of grief. Now some have moved to negotiation. Some of course are still trapped in anger or even denial. Most will get to acceptance in due course, but a very few probably never will, they are to be pitied, because they will live out the rest of their lives trapped in emotions they can't understand or control.
The EU isn't an omnipotent supernatural power.
At the end of the day, it's a heavily regulated customs union, and preferential trading block, with political structures governing it, and an economic union we've largely stayed out of.
Leaving involves quitting the political structures, parcelling up transitory and permenant arrangements on trade and repatriation of regulatory powers whilst transiting the existing EU acquis as a one off into UK law.
Will it take a long time to unwind and diverge? Yes, it will. Probably 10-15 years. But that's no reason why decisions cannot be taken in Westminster going forwards rather than Brussels.
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
There are two separate parts: EFTA and the EEA. To join EFTA we'd need the unanimous consent of the existing four members. To modify the EEA treaties to transfer from being EU members to non-EU members we'd need the unanimous consent of the three EEA/EFTA countries plus the EU27.
In addition, to re-work our WTO membership to separate our position from that of the EU we'll need to work through the WTO processes, involving 160 countries.
Lord only knows how Theresa May and her band can untangle that lot in any reasonable timescale.
Do you have a link to a discussion on the WTO issue? I don't think it was raised once during the campaign when it would have been quite relevant.
I think the Remain campaign has now shifted gear from voting to leave the EU is unthinkable (wrong answer: please re-run the vote) to acknowledging the referendum result, but pointing out that leaving the EU is practically impossible, so we may as well stay or as good as.
Thats them just moving on to the next stage of grief. Now some have moved to negotiation. Some of course are still trapped in anger or even denial. Most will get to acceptance in due course, but a very few probably never will, they are to be pitied, because they will live out the rest of their lives trapped in emotions they can't understand or control.
Anyway, the answer is simple: move into (or in my case, stay in) US-dollar denominated assets and income streams, especially since the risk of President Trump seems to be receding.
You mean you've filled your swimming pool with Brent Crude?
At the end of the day, it's a heavily regulated customs union, and preferential trading block, with political structures governing it, and an economic union we've largely stayed out of.
Leaving involves quitting the political structures, parcelling up transitory and permenant arrangements on trade and repatriation of regulatory powers whilst transiting the existing EU acquis as a one off into UK law.
Will it take a long time to unwind and diverge? Yes, it will. Probably 10-15 years. But that's no reason why decisions cannot be taken in Westminster going forwards rather than Brussels.
It's very important to think of leaving as a process. Two years from Article 50 will not a see fully formed Brexit, it will see a half (or even a quarter) formed one.
It's also important to remember that trade patterns do not change overnight. Going straight to WTO would be a disaster for certain industries: if your business involves importing a lot of components from the EU, assembing them, and then re-exporting to the EU, WTO would pretty much kill you. (The Nissan supply chain is pan-European.)
Post Brexit, we will - assuming Donald Trump is not the Republican nominee - see improved terms of trade with some of the rest of the world (the Commonwealth, for instance). But it will take a long-time before our economy has fully adapted to this.
If true, Boris, DD and Fox need to start grovelling to Norway. The 'Norway Model' was a key element of Leave's propaganda. If that goes down the pan then we're seriously entitled to question the judgement of those who so confidently advocated it. The implication was that EFTA was in the bag and we just had to post the application.
There are two separate parts: EFTA and the EEA. To join EFTA we'd need the unanimous consent of the existing four members. To modify the EEA treaties to transfer from being EU members to non-EU members we'd need the unanimous consent of the three EEA/EFTA countries plus the EU27.
In addition, to re-work our WTO membership to separate our position from that of the EU we'll need to work through the WTO processes, involving 160 countries.
Lord only knows how Theresa May and her band can untangle that lot in any reasonable timescale.
Do you have a link to a discussion on the WTO issue? I don't think it was raised once during the campaign when it would have been quite relevant.
I think the Remain campaign has now shifted gear from voting to leave the EU is unthinkable (wrong answer: please re-run the vote) to acknowledging the referendum result, but pointing out that leaving the EU is practically impossible, so we may as well stay or as good as.
Thats them just moving on to the next stage of grief. Now some have moved to negotiation. Some of course are still trapped in anger or even denial. Most will get to acceptance in due course, but a very few probably never will, they are to be pitied, because they will live out the rest of their lives trapped in emotions they can't understand or control.
The EU isn't an omnipotent supernatural power.
At the end of the day, it's a heavily regulated customs union, and preferential trading block, with political structures governing it, and an economic union we've largely stayed out of.
Leaving involves quitting the political structures, parcelling up transitory and permenant arrangements on trade and repatriation of regulatory powers whilst transiting the existing EU acquis as a one off into UK law.
Will it take a long time to unwind and diverge? Yes, it will. Probably 10-15 years. But that's no reason why decisions cannot be taken in Westminster going forwards rather than Brussels.
Remain told us that only 6% of our laws came from the EU so that should not take long to correct.
There will certainly be politicians in each of the EFTA countries that will be concerned that the UK might dominate it if it rejoined.
But there will also be others who will be pleased that the UK might give it far greater profile, negotiating weight and access to emerging markets.
I think the big concern from the EFTA countries is that we are just planning to use them as a stepping stone. That is, we don't really want to join them, we're just planning to temporarily be a member until we've got some deals with the rest of the world.
I can understand that concern, but I don't think that need be a problem. As Switzerland has shown, EFTA doesn't really tie your hands as far as negotitaitons with the rest of the world. I guess their concern would be that we wouldn't be interested in the EFTA-Canada trade deal and the like.
Mr. N., if you are talking about the decision to have a think about Hinkley Point, then TM was in my view absolutely correct, and if that pisses off the Chinese well, such is life and that is what the FCO is for.
The Hinkley Point project is in my view an abomination at every level. I hope HMG scraps it.
Yes, I was referring to that.
My point wasn't so much about the substance of the decision, but the manner of it. Announcing the delay at the last possible moment as the Chinese big-wigs were on their way to the celebratory shindig looked like deliberate rudeness, calculated to humiliate them. I don't think that was very clever.
Interesting that the Conservative Party, of which you if I remember, have been a long term supporter, has now become "Theresa May and her band".
Well, I've never made any secret of the fact that I don't rate Liam Fox, DD or Boris. None of them seems to me to be well qualified or have the right temperament for this incredibly difficult task.
I very much supported Theresa May as leader, but she's got a near-impossible job. I've also been a bit dismayed by some of her early decisions - at a time when we desperately need to build international alliances, was it really a good idea to piss off the Chinese so rudely, for example? We'll see how things turn out, but I'm not optimistic.
Mr. N., if you are talking about the decision to have a think about Hinkley Point, then TM was in my view absolutely correct, and if that pisses off the Chinese well, such is life and that is what the FCO is for.
The Hinkley Point project is in my view an abomination at every level. I hope HMG scraps it.
Hinkley point
- Environmental risk, Tick - Security risk, Tick - More expensive than alternatives, Tick - Vanity project, Tick
Presumably he will remind them that their Europhilia is massively out of line with the Norwegian people...
How do you manage to construe a possible attempt to block the accession of the UK to a European institution for reasons of national interest as "Europhilia"? Edit: Or was this some sort of subtle irony that eluded me?
They don't want anyone else to vote to Leave the EU.
Why would Norway care if anyone else votes to leave the EU?
Euromaniac Norwegian politicians care because the more countries that Leave, the less likely they will be to con their people into joining.
I've met quite a few Norwegian politicians in my time, and they're a pragmatic bunch. In fact, I'd struggle to call any of them more than modestly Europhilic, and certainly not Euromaniac.
Comments
“Phone polls may actually have been responsible for the Leave win,” said Stephan Shakespeare, chief executive.
“The Prime Minister and Remain campaign based their responses on those phone polls, which were wrong.”
There were murmurings throughout that Remain were worried (the impromptu little speech, late in the day, in front of Number Ten, for example).
Not to mention the approach taken was plain stupid regardless. Imagine Remain had won by four points. Right now there'd be a huge number of 'little Englanders' Cameron had insulted. Electorally [for now, at least] the Conservative could've lost a large number of votes to UKIP.
But yes, JC is the favourite https://m.oddschecker.com/t/politics/british-politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister
Anyone else think Hammond at 20/1 is worth a beer, as the Theresa under a bus candidate?
Norwegian politicians to meet UK’s Brexit minister amid concerns allowing Britain to rejoin will shift balance of organisation
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/09/norway-may-block-uk-return-to-european-free-trade-association?CMP=twt_gu
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/694787/BREXIT-BOOM-27-countries-around-world-want-trade-deal-UK
As to the stupidity of Cameron's approach he and Osborne did not care about the aftermath inside the Conservative party.
It turned out I was wrong, which I realised in time to make a profit on the result.
Clinton 51 .. Trump 41
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-clinton-opens-double-digit-lead-over-trump-n625676
Clinton 43 .. Trump 41
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_80916.pdf
I reckon just before the debates.
The EU is an unsound organisation. It'll crumble, and there will be substantial, perhaps even terrible, consequences when it does. The sooner we're out, the better.
Edited extra bit: I'd add that whilst short term economic turbulence is nigh on certain, I believe long term prosperity is better suited to being able to manage our own affairs rather than trusting foreign bureaucrats to do so in our behalf whilst simultaneously considering the desires of 27 other countries.
Clinton 51 .. Trump 32
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_80916.pdf
(I'll get me coat..)
In addition, to re-work our WTO membership to separate our position from that of the EU we'll need to work through the WTO processes, involving 160 countries.
Lord only knows how Theresa May and her band can untangle that lot in any reasonable timescale.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37016123
UK Tourism booms with forward bookings up;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37009735
Fastest growth in Industrial Output since 1999;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37021008
If I was a Brussels bureaucrat or indeed Minister I’d be seriously hacked off at the prospect of negotiating something slightly diferent with someone else while I was much more worried about terrorism and the euro, to name but two.
Seriously, I doubt any meaningful big name Republicans would ever endorse Hillary. There's too much history between her and the Republican party.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-wto-idUSKCN0YS1LA
This is useful short summary of some of the issues:
http://www.ictsd.org/opinion/nothing-simple-about-uk-regaining-wto-status-post-brexit
And another:
http://mlexmarketinsight.com/editors-picks/uk-must-sort-wto-relations-sealing-post-brexit-trade-deals-former-negotiator-says/
@JeremyCliffe: Concluding in about 2025 with an access/trade/migration settlement somewhat unsatisfactory to all and for which Remainers will be blamed
Clinton 42 .. Trump 44
https://www.stlmag.com/news/in-missouri-voter-polls-president-governor/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-campaign-to-devote-more-money-workers-to-arizona-georgia/2016/08/09/46150062-5e2e-11e6-8e45-477372e89d78_story.html?dkdk#comments
Interesting that the Conservative Party, of which you if I remember, have been a long term supporter, has now become "Theresa May and her band".
Thank you very much for your thoughtful reply. I won't hijack this thread and I'm sure there will be plenty of opportunities to debate these issues in the future.
Can I say that I wholeheartedly agree with this sentence: "The fact that taxation appears to be more or less voluntary for multinationals and wealthy individuals is seen as offensive and a genuine problem way beyond Labour ranks."
It feels as if only mugs like me pay their taxes in full. Not good and not fair.
But there will also be others who will be pleased that the UK might give it far greater profile, negotiating weight and access to emerging markets.
I very much supported Theresa May as leader, but she's got a near-impossible job. I've also been a bit dismayed by some of her early decisions - at a time when we desperately need to build international alliances, was it really a good idea to piss off the Chinese so rudely, for example? We'll see how things turn out, but I'm not optimistic.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/08/09/us/elections/Bush-Rubio-and-Kasich-Donors-give-to-Clinton.html?_r=1
When they struck their deals, did the EU mention that to them?
Whatever the letter of the wording of the treaties say, the U.K. as the 5th/6th largest economy in the world isn't going to be punted out as a result of domestic political decision it's taken about its future and its allies have promised to respect.
I expect the existing arrangement the UK has through its membership of the EU will be ported across or a way to achieve the same, technocratically, will be found.
At least three women have accused Trump of rape or attempted rape, in one case when the alleged victim was aged 13. He denies all of the allegations. Last month the Guardian published an interview with one alleged victim, Jill Harth, here.
The New York Times conducted more than 50 interviews with men and women who have observed Trump's conduct since his adolescence:
"Their accounts — many relayed here in their own words — reveal unwelcome romantic advances, unending commentary on the female form, a shrewd reliance on ambitious women, and unsettling workplace conduct, according to the interviews, as well as court records and written recollections. The interactions occurred in his offices at Trump Tower, at his homes, at construction sites and backstage at beauty pageants. They appeared to be fleeting, unimportant moments to him, but they left lasting impressions on the women who experienced them."
Trump has certainly abused women verbally in ways that show he has got a serious problem. He told a lawyer who was about to a take a prearranged courtroom break to express milk for her baby that she was "disgusting". (Her account is here: "He had an absolute meltdown (...) He shook his finger at me and he screamed 'You're disgusting! You're disgusting!'")
After Megyn Kelly, a journalist, had bested him by asking him tough questions he couldn't answer well, he commented that she had "blood coming out of eyes, blood coming out of her wherever". Here he is, saying those words, in context. He went on to say "I couldn't care less about her".
That being the case - something has to give.
Clinton 49.1 .. Trump 44.3
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/09/UPICVoter-poll-Donald-Trump-stops-the-bleeding-for-a-day/9271470751783/?spt=sec&or=tn
The Hinkley Point project is in my view an abomination at every level. I hope HMG scraps it.
At the end of the day, it's a heavily regulated customs union, and preferential trading block, with political structures governing it, and an economic union we've largely stayed out of.
Leaving involves quitting the political structures, parcelling up transitory and permenant arrangements on trade and repatriation of regulatory powers whilst transiting the existing EU acquis as a one off into UK law.
Will it take a long time to unwind and diverge? Yes, it will. Probably 10-15 years. But that's no reason why decisions cannot be taken in Westminster going forwards rather than Brussels.
We must be compassionate at that time...
Anything Labour can do, UKIP can do better...
It's also important to remember that trade patterns do not change overnight. Going straight to WTO would be a disaster for certain industries: if your business involves importing a lot of components from the EU, assembing them, and then re-exporting to the EU, WTO would pretty much kill you. (The Nissan supply chain is pan-European.)
Post Brexit, we will - assuming Donald Trump is not the Republican nominee - see improved terms of trade with some of the rest of the world (the Commonwealth, for instance). But it will take a long-time before our economy has fully adapted to this.
I was amused to discover that - apparently - the Austrians are opposed to us subsidising Hinckley Point.
Me too.
I can understand that concern, but I don't think that need be a problem. As Switzerland has shown, EFTA doesn't really tie your hands as far as negotitaitons with the rest of the world. I guess their concern would be that we wouldn't be interested in the EFTA-Canada trade deal and the like.
My point wasn't so much about the substance of the decision, but the manner of it. Announcing the delay at the last possible moment as the Chinese big-wigs were on their way to the celebratory shindig looked like deliberate rudeness, calculated to humiliate them. I don't think that was very clever.
Hinkley point
- Environmental risk, Tick
- Security risk, Tick
- More expensive than alternatives, Tick
- Vanity project, Tick