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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks argues that any cuts or tax rises caused by BREXIT be borne primarily by those groups that voted Leave
Enough already. The referendum has been fought and the good guys lost. The country decided to follow the lead of those pandering to xenophobes and obsessives. So be it. What next?
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Ta in advance.
Are you more concerned that Britain can succeed outside the EU, or that it can't succeed?
But I do think that this post - well written and argued as ever - misses the fundamental point of the discontent expressed on June 23rd and the disconnect between the city and the country. People voted leave because globalisation has failed them. Tax cuts should continue to be aimed at the lower end of the income spectrum. Education needs to be improved. The costs of this should be borne by those who benefit most from the current economic system. Cutting Corp tax more and reducing capital gains tax are just not sensible anymore. Reducing regulation unleashing small businesses are; I will be continually reminding my MP that there are more ways to stimulate the economy than free money and business tax cuts...
Last chance saloon for Hales, or a pick for the Oval regardless?
I suspect the latter.
Indeed.
For those PBers who occasionally despair at the declining standards of sub-editing on national newspapers, this article is a classic:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/05/owen-smith-offered-labour-a-route-back-into-power---but-are-corb/
The good news.
Trump has stopped the rot for now in my Average Daily Tracking poll (it now includes 7 different tracking polls).
In fact Hillary's DNC bounce maybe starting to wear off (she went down for the first day today since the end of the DNC).
The bad news.
Leaks from NBC suggest that upcoming state polls for Trump will be horrible including for safe red states.
The pressure for Trump to drop out will intensify from now till August 26th, which is the last day to be on the ballot in Texas.
And Trump is still 5 points behind in my Average Daily Tracking poll.
I replied to your comment on Catholic adoption agencies on the last thread, a friend of mine used to volunteer for one and they did a fantastic job. Dealing with dispassionate State "Social Services" really isn't progress on this one I'm afraid.
I accept the result, it was the decision of slightly more than half the electorate at the time. As referenda go it only needed a small majority to be passed and it got a small majority of 3.8%.
So we prepare for Brexit and if that starts to cost the country as seems to be already happening then the government will have to make savings. The triple lock has already come under threat, but I suspect that you were throwing a cat amongst the pigeons there.
It's not possible unfortunately to have a 'Leaver Tax' and I'm not in favour of hurting those groups that are old or live in the country.
But time moves on and if we have a general election before Brexit is achieved and if anti-Brexit parties win then that will obviously become the new thing that the 'people have spoken' about.
Look at slide 15 of the TUC "Why Britain Voted Leave" polling.
Amongst Remain voters, "change the rules for who is allowed to live in the UK so that EU and non-EU citizens have to meet the same criteria" wins 60-18.
Among all voters it is 70-14. (For Leavers, it was 78-10, which still indicates 10% of Leave voters wanted free movement with the "rump EU".)
When you write "Remainers have to accept that the settled view of the public is that immigration needs to be controlled more" that is somewhat misleading. It isn't that Remainers as the minority of this country are having to accept the will of the majority imposed upon them (though this is definitely something that the "global citizen" type of Remainer is staring down the barrel of). The desire to control immigration seems to be the settled will of most Remainers too.
I don't really agree with you on the EEA point. The referendum was a mandate to leave the EU and nothing more. The EEA is by far the least bad option and we should choose it. Sure, vast numbers of people will be disappointed but, honestly, so what? You are doubtless right that they will say they were betrayed by Remainers but they will say that anyway.
You should also remember that a lot of council results were 60-40 one way or the other. It wasn't overwhelming one way or the other. As for Leaving being about xenophobes/obsessives, I'm surprised someone who by his own admission is very far removed from Leave to be so confident as to their motives. You've already pointed out the gap between the Leave elite and their voters, so why the sudden expertise?
And isn't it precisely because enough people felt that they did not benefit from the EU / globalization that we got the result we did on 23rd June? So it might equally be argued that the Remainers - for instance, the City of London - will be now paying the price for having enjoyed the handsome benefits in the past.
But interesting and mischievous as this article is, it seems to me that any taxation / cost cutting measures need to be driven by efficiency i.e. by what works rather than by a desire to inflict punishment on those you don't like. That is rather Corbynite and doomed to failure and to lead to further bitterness.
@JeremyClarkson: I am a better and more constructive foreign secretary than Boris Johnson.
Again the TUC "Why Britain Voted Leave" polling is interesting on this one.
On many issues Remainers and Leavers have similar views - including being split on issues that are orthogonal to EU membership. The "two tribes", "Britain is being torn apart" narrative is clearly overblown. As, frankly, should have been obvious from the fact that both "sides" contained a coalition of voters from across the political spectrum (with the exception of very few UKIP-voting Remainers). And while there are trends, even they don't tell the whole story - e.g. it's true that older people tended to vote leave and younger remain, but this also intersected with socioeconomic group. The crossover age for majority remain/majority leave was higher among ABC1s, while young C2DEs were pretty evenly split on Leave/Remain.
Many leave voters were "soft" (i.e. considered voting remain) and ditto for remain voters.
Binary categorisation is rarely very helpful, particularly when so many social and political attitudes actually belong along a sliding scale. In this case there was a forced-choice dichotomisation between leave and remain, but it's important not to read too much into it.
Your article has the nuance of Procopius and the balance of Nero.
We're all Leavers now. Whether you voted for it or not.
Since when has that been relevant with Tories
The blame therefore should fall mostly on Major and Brown for their passing of the Maastricht Treaty and the Lisbon Treaty. I don't think we'd be able to tax them the difference.
However if you are finding it a challenge to your Worldview, take comfort in today's telegraph Editorial, apparently written by an intern...
@TeleComment: Don’t blame Brexit for this rate cut. Blame Project Fear https://t.co/KsfbWXsQFE
http://www.thecanary.co/2016/08/05/the-sun-accidentally-leaks-its-future-corbyn-smears/
Is ignorance the new Brexiteer badge of pride?
Those who whine the loudest get the least sweets.
Edit: Damn - can't believe I did that. FEWEST!
However, the justification Meeks uses is illogical. (It hits all pensioners indiscriminately regardless of their vote for starters - not to mention that the secret ballot and polling margin of error makes his grudge unenforceable) I suppose a Partner at a Pensions team in London would have such a bias though, so it's understandable from Mr Meeks' self-interested viewpoint.
Mr. Owls, not a Corbyn fan, but I think the stunts on his roof were out of order. There's a perfectly legitimate matter with fathers' rights in this country, but that kind of tomfoolery isn't my cup of tea.
It's bad politics as it stokes resentment - there's enough bile in politics now and it needs ratcheting down a step or twenty, not up. It's bad economics as any necessary cuts always ought to be in areas where the reduced spending causes least harm, and any tax increases should be spread to reduce economic distortion. And it isn't even genuinely fair, as large numbers of (say) pensioners and Cornishmen voted to remain, just as large numbers of young people and Londoners voted to leave.
There probably is a case for less generous pensioner benefits, but it has nothing to do with some kind of "punishment" over Brexit but rather that the pain has disproportionately fallen on low to middle income working people in recent years.
Good thread Alistair because it is clearly designed to stimulate debate, albeit not from me as it is now bedtime where I live. You are right in that taxation/cost cutting measures should fall on those who caused the problem and here I would particularly focus on pensioners. As it is widely suggested that the Conservatives are shoo-ins for the next election anyway then get rid of that ridiculous promise of above inflation increases to the state pension and make them realise that this is part of the cost of Brexit, which too many of them were happy to vote for.
I didn't even get to the fishing boat after Obama hit me in the SOLAR PLEXUS.
Something I can never help wondering about these jokers though. What do they do when they need to pee?
Hahahaha
Some pensioners should get far more than currently, others far less. This could be funded by reexamining the generous provision of public sector pension schemes. Perhaps deferring those who took their pension early?
Ending the triple lock also seems sensible. Other tax / welfare measures are more difficult to target however.
I am in favour of profit sharing however, if the economy does better than trend over the next few years, Leavers can have the benefit.
A much looser arrangement would work diplomatically and politically but would be very damaging economically. It would also be frustrating for those situations, which I am sure will arise, when we actually want joint action on something or other.
A quandary when we have rejected the one solution that works for us. It will be interesting to see how the circle is squared.
A headline of "Remoaners suck donkey cock" would have caused a similar first-paragraph-only reading backlash from all enthusiastic fellators of the Equus africanus asinus.
As you say, the sensibilities of the national leaders should win through, against Jean-Claude Drunker's view that Britian should somehow be punished for daring to vote Leave.
Most EU countries either want to integrate further or are willing to go along with it. We don't.
I also think the EU's unstable and unsustainable, and the sooner we leave the less terrible [though still significant] the impact of its crumbling will be, for us.
Or that we are all Tories now because they are in government.
2025 must be in the running.
And it will be abandoned at some point.
I like your thread header, although I know it's not mean to be taken seriously. I could write one on making lawyers pay 99% income tax and banning holiday homes in Hungary. It would probably be popular, but as likely to happen.
It's a novel idea anyway.
Can I just add a word or two ... We won, rejoice.
Oh, and best wishes to you and yours.
Shops owned by Leaver voters should also be marked and publicly recognisable.
If interest rates were 2% it might be easier.
So there we go.
Suppose May goes for Brexit-lite, will John Major's 'bastards' meekly vote for it? Politics is in 'interesting times' anything might happen.
https://twitter.com/thebestbond/status/761555870446747648
There may still be a copy at my club so I will look there after work. Thanks for the tip.
After all, the elderly population who voted for those pesky EU migrants to go home will be paying a far greater price than just the loss of their "triple-lock", by virtue of the fact that they will no longer have their daily visits from their Lithuanian care-worker or the nice lady with the accent who calls every evening to put them to bed, as they've all buggered off back home.
Maybe a hike in inheritance tax would be more appropriate to take advantage of the increased number of wealthy old bigots popping their clogs during the winter while their dependents and their families are off on their Alpine ski-ing holidays.
59-year-old man arrested over the sectarian murder of 10 Protestant workers at Kingsmill in Northern Ireland https://t.co/fFIsoBpBXO
As for most of our politics this country is essentially bifurcated, for instance exemplified by the 1st few comments on this thread.
Sadly, lacking rigour, this referendum has split us into those who are right and those who're wrong.
And those who're wrong should carry a few cans.
"They should be encouraging mechanisms for close co-operation with other European countries wherever appropriate, whether on a bilateral basis, such as on defence matters with France, or at an EU level, such as on matters relating to common goods, such as fisheries or the environment."
Why the hell would we want anything more to do with the abomination that is the CFP? Surely all but the most blinkered remainers could see that leaving that would be a good thing, both for the UK and for the fish?
Yes, the Yes bar is clearly marked, and for the obvious reason.
The sign is a photoshop from another meme running right now. The sign appears in a tobacconist in Yorkshire, but was posted by someone as appearing in Westminster