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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Smith vs Corbyn debate showed a Labour Party talking to

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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    If Australia had the same population density as England, it would have around 3 billion people instead of 24 million.

    Although much of Australia is arid desert that is utterly unsuitable to supporting human life.
    Though if you compare like for like with habitable parts of Australia it would still be hundreds of millions people. I grew up in Melbourne which is fully habitable and the density there is nothing like you get here.
    The more remarkable comparison in terms of people per square miles is surely with Ireland?
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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    taffys said:

    ''Deaths at police hands are extremely rare in this country, regardless of ethnic origin. ''

    Who gives a f8ck about the protestors. Why aren't we just clearing what amounts to a very few people out of the way? If they want a proper protest march, fine. Why not just arrest and remove?

    Don;t blame the protestors, blame the authorities for letting this happen.

    Unfortunately the limp-wristed approach is in order to avoid being called a racist. What we need is some volunteer black coppers to forcibly remove the highway blockers.

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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited August 2016
    Enjoyed this piece

    http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/post-truth-politics-a-smear-on-the-masses-brexit/18624#.V6R7b1LTXqA

    "The ‘post-truth’ hypothesis rests upon three assumptions. The first is that truth is being subjectively created and subjectively received. Nothing new here. ‘Truth’ has been contested for as long as human beings have been speaking. Ever since the first books rolled off the Gutenberg presses, the written word has been a medium in which truth has been debated and fought over. The only difference between the printing-press revolution and digital revolution is degree. In essence, they have done the same thing: made information more democratic....

    So why is there this fanciful notion that we live in a uniquely post-truth era? It’s because every generation likes to think that they are living in a critical epoch – either at the end of times or the beginning of something new. It’s the way you think when you are in your late teens and early twenties. This is when you also want to sound more clever and more important than others, and deploy big words and grand narratives. It’s the narcissism of every new generation."
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Georgia - ABT/SRBI/Atlanta Journal

    Clinton 44 .. Trump 40

    https://cmgajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/cross.pdf
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223

    Southern rail is a concession not a franchise. It is a concession because the rebuilding of London Bridge station and approaches means it will be too unreliable until 2019 for a franchise to be viable.

    Southern are just being paid a fee to run the service. Importantly in a franchise industrial action has a huge impact on the franchisees finances. In the Southern concession it costs them not a whit.

    The concession terms set by the government also include extending driver only operation and closing most ticket offices.

    It might be construed that the government decided to take advantage of a long period of engineering disruption (london bridge and approaches rebuilding) to force through reform of working practices knowing that subsequent industrial action would come at a time that the service is worse than usual anyway....

    Have a look at 5.8.33 Paragraph e (page 63) of the ITT for the next South Western Franchise:

    http://tinyurl.com/jfb73ws
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,077
    edited August 2016

    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    If Australia had the same population density as England, it would have around 3 billion people instead of 24 million.

    It wouldn't have them for long - unless someone had the foresight to invest in water desalination plants....
    Anyone who has been to North Queensland in the wet knows that Australia has a lot of freshwater.

    While 2/3 of the country is unsuitable for extensive inhabitation the other 1/3 is a very big country, though paradoxically one of the worlds most urbanised. Even small town Australia is losing people to the cities and suburbs.
    Australia is a bloody big place, it's 7.7m square kilometres - which is 95% of the size of the contiguous United States! Slightly more square in shape than the USA though, it still takes five hours to fly from Brisbane to Perth.
    http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/countries_by_area.htm
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    perdix said:

    taffys said:

    ''Deaths at police hands are extremely rare in this country, regardless of ethnic origin. ''

    Who gives a f8ck about the protestors. Why aren't we just clearing what amounts to a very few people out of the way? If they want a proper protest march, fine. Why not just arrest and remove?

    Don;t blame the protestors, blame the authorities for letting this happen.

    Unfortunately the limp-wristed approach is in order to avoid being called a racist. What we need is some volunteer black coppers to forcibly remove the highway blockers.

    What we really need is to not think that we need that.

    ...if you see what I mean.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    If Australia had the same population density as England, it would have around 3 billion people instead of 24 million.

    It wouldn't have them for long - unless someone had the foresight to invest in water desalination plants....
    Anyone who has been to North Queensland in the wet knows that Australia has a lot of freshwater.

    While 2/3 of the country is unsuitable for extensive inhabitation the other 1/3 is a very big country, though paradoxically one of the worlds most urbanised. Even small town Australia is losing people to the cities and suburbs.
    Australia is a bloody big place, it's 7.7m square kilometres - which is 95% of the size of the contiguous United States!
    http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/countries_by_area.htm
    I recall reading that Perth is 5hrs from anywhere big.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    John_M said:

    jonny83 said:

    I think it's true that Corbyn doesn't care about getting into government, his mission is to get Labour back to some semblance of its core roots and that's it.

    The country as a whole just isn't occupying the same political ground that Corbyn does nor will it. The general public don't like paying high taxes and don't agree with a borrow and spend programme not when the finances are in the state they are. If we were running a surplus and not investing money in key areas then his approach might get more traction but we just aren't in that situation. Re-nationalizing the railways seems to be one of his key ideas, but was a nationalized railway really that much better? Before my time i'm afraid so I can;t really comment on the pluses and negatives.

    It's all the same with Labour, tax more, spend more, borrow more when that money has run out. Selective Keynesian economics in that they select the parts they like and ditch the bits they don't (Keynes always argued that during the boom times you do save money from taxation for a rainy day fund so you could spend public money on big projects to stimulate the economy during the bad times). Instead Labour just spend, spend and spend.

    The issue for Corbyn is older voters. People like me remember nationalised industries, and those memories aren't happy ones.

    You can argue that rail privatisation was botched, but it doesn't invalidate the principle that privitisation has broadly been a public good.

    We remember rent controls, price and wages councils and all the paraphernalia of a socialist command economy. It was shit, and we don't want it back.
    Well said, Mr. M. It probably wouldn't matter too much to me if it did come back but I would hate to have my son live & work under that sort of shit regime.

    P.S. Southern Rail now may be pretty awful, but under BR before privatisation it was even worse. Much of the problem at the moment is beyond the railway company's control - there are simply too many people trying to use the service. For example, since I was commuting up to Town the population of the catchment area for my local station has increased dramatically (somewhere between 50 and 100%). Yet there are not more trains or longer trains, just more and more people trying to use the service.

    Horsham where I think Mr. Jonathan, gent of this parish, lives is the same. It has expanded out of all recognition from when I had a flat there in the early eighties, but there are no more trains or main roads and the health service provision has actually been cut.

    Shoving more and more people into the Home Counties is crackers.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited August 2016
    GeoffM said:

    perdix said:

    ''Deaths at police hands are extremely rare in this country, regardless of ethnic origin. ''

    Who gives a f8ck about the protestors. Why aren't we just clearing what amounts to a very few people out of the way? If they want a proper protest march, fine. Why not just arrest and remove?

    Don;t blame the protestors, blame the authorities for letting this happen.
    Unfortunately the limp-wristed approach is in order to avoid being called a racist. What we need is some volunteer black coppers to forcibly remove the highway blockers.


    What we really need is to not think that we need that.

    ...if you see what I mean.
    I'd offer a holiday to Sheriff David Clarke - he'd knock some sense into them. And the Chief of Dallas Police, his son was shot dead on duty too.

    http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2016/07/11/sheriff-david-clarke-its-time-to-stand-up-to-black-lives-matter.html
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,255
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Court News
    Three men convicted of fundraising for ISIS fighter by flogging stuff on eBay https://t.co/yFIlbYtZ17 #walsall

    Not the sharpest tools in the drawer, then.

    We have been fortunate in that most of our Islamist terrorists don't seem to be terribly bright.
    If they were bright they'd be doing something productive with their lives.
    Some of the 9/11 terrorists were pretty bright and had good careers ahead of them.

    We shouldn't assume that intelligent people can't be seduced by evil ideologies. Look at all those clever people who believed in Communism. It's not cleverness which is the issue. It's the lack of a moral conscience.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,077
    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    If Australia had the same population density as England, it would have around 3 billion people instead of 24 million.

    It wouldn't have them for long - unless someone had the foresight to invest in water desalination plants....
    Anyone who has been to North Queensland in the wet knows that Australia has a lot of freshwater.

    While 2/3 of the country is unsuitable for extensive inhabitation the other 1/3 is a very big country, though paradoxically one of the worlds most urbanised. Even small town Australia is losing people to the cities and suburbs.
    Australia is a bloody big place, it's 7.7m square kilometres - which is 95% of the size of the contiguous United States!
    http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/countries_by_area.htm
    I recall reading that Perth is 5hrs from anywhere big.
    Perth to Brisbane is pretty much straight across the place, 5 hour commercial flight.
    http://www.travelmath.com/flying-time/from/Brisbane,+Australia/to/Perth,+Australia
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Dromedary said:

    Ladbroke's are offering 6\1 that Trump will be replaced as the Republican candidate.

    PredictIt say there's a 7% probability that he will withdraw by 31 August.

    Current Betfair prices for next president:

    Ryan - back 100, lay 130
    Kasich - back 700, lay 850
    Pence - back 860, lay 940

    Johnson - back 280, lay 320.

    Trump may be replaced as a candidate, but the process will be so farcical and the replacement so short of public profile that they would be doomed. Even at those odds I would not touch this market.
    I am plus a lot on Johnson so am hoping for some heavyweight Republican endorsements for him so I can cash out.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,493
    JackW said:

    Georgia - ABT/SRBI/Atlanta Journal

    Clinton 44 .. Trump 40

    https://cmgajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/cross.pdf

    Demographic changes must be bringing Georgia towards being genuinely in play. Might be a tallish ask this time but Bill won Georgia in 1992 of course.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,161
    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Court News
    Three men convicted of fundraising for ISIS fighter by flogging stuff on eBay https://t.co/yFIlbYtZ17 #walsall

    Not the sharpest tools in the drawer, then.

    We have been fortunate in that most of our Islamist terrorists don't seem to be terribly bright.
    If they were bright they'd be doing something productive with their lives.
    Some of the 9/11 terrorists were pretty bright and had good careers ahead of them.

    We shouldn't assume that intelligent people can't be seduced by evil ideologies. Look at all those clever people who believed in Communism. It's not cleverness which is the issue. It's the lack of a moral conscience.

    Also the Aum Shinrikyo sarin gas attackers were smart, the Unabomber was very smart, etc etc.
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    BBC - Black Lives Matter movement 'needed in UK'

    Organiser Joshua Virasami said black people should come together "to achieve justice and equality in Britain".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36982748

  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ToryJim said:

    Demographic changes must be bringing Georgia towards being genuinely in play. Might be a tallish ask this time but Bill won Georgia in 1992 of course.

    A big Clinton win certainly will put Georgia in play. The demographic trends are helping but also coming into play is the impression of Trump attacking a military family - not good anywhere in the US but especially in Georgia.
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    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    BBC - Black Lives Matter movement 'needed in UK'

    Organiser Joshua Virasami said black people should come together "to achieve justice and equality in Britain".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36982748

    I bet you my taxes are sponsoring his 'alternative lifestyle'.

    Joshua Virasami, of Mauritian heritage, was born in 1990, South West London, UK.
    After finishing state college he dropped out of University. Since then has spent his time travelling, writing, making music, photographing and participating in/organising civil disobedience
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Court News
    Three men convicted of fundraising for ISIS fighter by flogging stuff on eBay https://t.co/yFIlbYtZ17 #walsall

    Not the sharpest tools in the drawer, then.

    We have been fortunate in that most of our Islamist terrorists don't seem to be terribly bright.
    If they were bright they'd be doing something productive with their lives.
    Some of the 9/11 terrorists were pretty bright and had good careers ahead of them.

    We shouldn't assume that intelligent people can't be seduced by evil ideologies. Look at all those clever people who believed in Communism. It's not cleverness which is the issue. It's the lack of a moral conscience.

    Also the Aum Shinrikyo sarin gas attackers were smart, the Unabomber was very smart, etc etc.
    Government information security planning always assumes the attackers are at least as smart as the defenders, possesses perfect information about networks, crypto-algorithms, software, has the resources of a state-actor and so forth. It's a useful stance.

    It's callous but true that terrorism of the nature displayed since 9/11 is statistically insignificant. The worry is always that somewhere a really smart group will weaponise an NBC capability and deploy it against a major population centre.

    It's very hard to convince decision makers to properly resource & sustain counter measures as the size of the threat is, almost by definition, hard to quantify (c.f. Donald Rumsfeld's epic quote).
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    GeoffM said:

    BBC - Black Lives Matter movement 'needed in UK'

    Organiser Joshua Virasami said black people should come together "to achieve justice and equality in Britain".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36982748

    I bet you my taxes are sponsoring his 'alternative lifestyle'.

    Joshua Virasami, of Mauritian heritage, was born in 1990, South West London, UK.
    After finishing state college he dropped out of University. Since then has spent his time travelling, writing, making music, photographing and participating in/organising civil disobedience
    What a prick..

    "If you are the benefactor of white-hetero male structural privileges then wearing a beard comes with responsibility, that responsibility is to appreciate the inequalities assigned to our bodies at birth, to stop whitesplaining, to stop dismissing experiences of oppression, to not turn this into a ‘we’re all working class’ affair, ignorance kills, your ignorance kills."
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/joshua-virasami/checkyourbeardprivilege_b_7801260.html?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Cyclefree said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Court News
    Three men convicted of fundraising for ISIS fighter by flogging stuff on eBay https://t.co/yFIlbYtZ17 #walsall

    Not the sharpest tools in the drawer, then.

    We have been fortunate in that most of our Islamist terrorists don't seem to be terribly bright.
    If they were bright they'd be doing something productive with their lives.
    Some of the 9/11 terrorists were pretty bright and had good careers ahead of them.

    We shouldn't assume that intelligent people can't be seduced by evil ideologies. Look at all those clever people who believed in Communism. It's not cleverness which is the issue. It's the lack of a moral conscience.

    Also the Aum Shinrikyo sarin gas attackers were smart, the Unabomber was very smart, etc etc.
    Certainly many terrorists are intelligent (hence radicalisation on Campus should be given due attention alongside prisons)

    The risk is slightly different. Intelligent terrorists need foolish and gullible cannon fodder. There is opportunity too for the spooks to detect them this way.
  • Options

    John_M said:

    jonny83 said:

    I think it's true that Corbyn doesn't care about getting into government, his mission is to get Labour back to some semblance of its core roots and that's it.

    The country as a whole just isn't occupying the same political ground that Corbyn does nor will it. The general public don't like paying high taxes and don't agree with a borrow and spend programme not when the finances are in the state they are. If we were running a surplus and not investing money in key areas then his approach might get more traction but we just aren't in that situation. Re-nationalizing the railways seems to be one of his key ideas, but was a nationalized railway really that much better? Before my time i'm afraid so I can;t really comment on the pluses and negatives.

    It's all the same with Labour, tax more, spend more, borrow more when that money has run out. Selective Keynesian economics in that they select the parts they like and ditch the bits they don't (Keynes always argued that during the boom times you do save money from taxation for a rainy day fund so you could spend public money on big projects to stimulate the economy during the bad times). Instead Labour just spend, spend and spend.

    The issue for Corbyn is older voters. People like me remember nationalised industries, and those memories aren't happy ones.

    You can argue that rail privatisation was botched, but it doesn't invalidate the principle that privitisation has broadly been a public good.

    We remember rent controls, price and wages councils and all the paraphernalia of a socialist command economy. It was shit, and we don't want it back.
    Well said, Mr. M. It probably wouldn't matter too much to me if it did come back but I would hate to have my son live & work under that sort of shit regime.

    P.S. Southern Rail now may be pretty awful, but under BR before privatisation it was even worse. Much of the problem at the moment is beyond the railway company's control - there are simply too many people trying to use the service. For example, since I was commuting up to Town the population of the catchment area for my local station has increased dramatically (somewhere between 50 and 100%). Yet there are not more trains or longer trains, just more and more people trying to use the service.

    Horsham where I think Mr. Jonathan, gent of this parish, lives is the same. It has expanded out of all recognition from when I had a flat there in the early eighties, but there are no more trains or main roads and the health service provision has actually been cut.

    Shoving more and more people into the Home Counties is crackers.
    Horsham has actually got less. There used to be 'intercities' to from the coast to Horsham and London via Dorking and Sutton avoiding East Croydon but nomore and the passing loops at Cheam were removed.
This discussion has been closed.