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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Smith vs Corbyn debate showed a Labour Party talking to

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930
    PlatoSaid said:

    DanSmith said:
    I think if I was trying to get to Heathrow I would have been tempted to go all Alf Garnet.
    One person was shot by police in 2015, one so far in 2016 - he was white.
    Man, how unlucky was he? Shot by the police in two successive years.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    john_zims said:

    @ThreeQuidder

    'Remind you of anyone?

    http://newsthump.com/2016/08/05/48-of-brits-secretly-hoping-the-economy-will-turn-to-shit'


    Must have been an incredible disappointment that interest rates went down instead of up as we were told by numerous experts.

    I am not convinced that yesterdays interest rate drop is a sign of a healthy economy. It looks more like Abenomics to me and that went well in Japan didn't it?

    More QE next, so arrange your affairs accordingly.
  • rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    DanSmith said:
    I think if I was trying to get to Heathrow I would have been tempted to go all Alf Garnet.
    One person was shot by police in 2015, one so far in 2016 - he was white.
    Man, how unlucky was he? Shot by the police in two successive years.
    LOL.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    Pro_Rata said:

    The key is that this is a poll of Labour members. Smith is pitching to them, not the electorate. With him in charge Labour could hope to emulate EdM's score last year and perhaps do better in Wales. If the LDs progress slightly, that could mean a hung Parliament. It is the very best Labour could hope for. Under Corbyn, of course, that is impossible. More important, though, is that if Smith wins Labour becomes a party focused on winning elections once again. That is absolutely vital.

    However, Smith is not going to win. Corbyn is. So it's all academic. Labour will lose the next GE massively. That's the way the hard left will be defeated.

    @SouthamObserver - I've been enjoying your exploration of Corbyn as an extra-parliamentary politician, but there is one aspect I've not seen in terms of above the line contributions. I am assuming there is some strategic intelligence within the Corbyn camp, whether it is drawn upon or not by the leadership, that has an idea how being a mass movement of protest works in causing changes comparable in size and (subjectively) preferable in nature to those deliverable through parliamentary social democratic compromise, even in the teeth of ongoing Tory government. Such ideas such be at based and adapted in a detailed way to the context of modern Britain, and not just be based on the agitation chapters of the Penguin Classic Communist / Marxist set texts.

    After all, some of the victories of the last years have been heavily extra-parliamentary in the winning, on gay rights, on the much more hostile environment for foreign interventions, and it has to be remembered the way all shades of Labour politicians often cleave to many forms of political correctness, helpful or not, is a comfort blanket from 80s extra-parliamentary campaigns.

    I know you are rooting for a Smith win, but I'd like you to put yourself in the Corbyn strategist's shoes for at least one of your contributions and answer the question 'How is this all meant to work in the Corbynista's world?'
    There are no Corbyn strategists. They're making this up as they go.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    DanSmith said:
    I think if I was trying to get to Heathrow I would have been tempted to go all Alf Garnet.
    One person was shot by police in 2015, one so far in 2016 - he was white.
    On R4 Today a BLM spokesman said that one person dies in police custody each week. Facts are that it was 31 in whole of 2016 from all contact including 3 from road traffic accidents. Just 5 of the 31 were described as BAME.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited August 2016
    Sean_F said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    DanSmith said:
    I think if I was trying to get to Heathrow I would have been tempted to go all Alf Garnet.
    One person was shot by police in 2015, one so far in 2016 - he was white.
    Deaths at police hands are extremely rare in this country, regardless of ethnic origin.
    As evidenced by the tasering and arrest of the Russell Square killer. In most countries he would have been peppered with bullets, as indeed the Rigby killers would have been too.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,385
    Jonathan said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    The key is that this is a poll of Labour members. Smith is pitching to them, not the electorate. With him in charge Labour could hope to emulate EdM's score last year and perhaps do better in Wales. If the LDs progress slightly, that could mean a hung Parliament. It is the very best Labour could hope for. Under Corbyn, of course, that is impossible. More important, though, is that if Smith wins Labour becomes a party focused on winning elections once again. That is absolutely vital.

    However, Smith is not going to win. Corbyn is. So it's all academic. Labour will lose the next GE massively. That's the way the hard left will be defeated.

    @SouthamObserver - I've been enjoying your exploration of Corbyn as an extra-parliamentary politician, but there is one aspect I've not seen in terms of above the line contributions. I am assuming there is some strategic intelligence within the Corbyn camp, whether it is drawn upon or not by the leadership, that has an idea how being a mass movement of protest works in causing changes comparable in size and (subjectively) preferable in nature to those deliverable through parliamentary social democratic compromise, even in the teeth of ongoing Tory government. Such ideas such be at based and adapted in a detailed way to the context of modern Britain, and not just be based on the agitation chapters of the Penguin Classic Communist / Marxist set texts.

    After all, some of the victories of the last years have been heavily extra-parliamentary in the winning, on gay rights, on the much more hostile environment for foreign interventions, and it has to be remembered the way all shades of Labour politicians often cleave to many forms of political correctness, helpful or not, is a comfort blanket from 80s extra-parliamentary campaigns.

    I know you are rooting for a Smith win, but I'd like you to put yourself in the Corbyn strategist's shoes for at least one of your contributions and answer the question 'How is this all meant to work in the Corbynista's world?'
    There are no Corbyn strategists. They're making this up as they go.
    Hypothetical Corbyn strategists are acceptable :)
  • PlatoSaid said:

    DanSmith said:
    I think if I was trying to get to Heathrow I would have been tempted to go all Alf Garnet.
    One person was shot by police in 2015, one so far in 2016 - he was white.
    On R4 Today a BLM spokesman said that one person dies in police custody each week. Facts are that it was 31 in whole of 2016 from all contact including 3 from road traffic accidents. Just 5 of the 31 were described as BAME.
    I presume R4 presenters were quick to pull him up on this misinformation? We wouldn't want lies to be spread about the size of this problem.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,755

    PlatoSaid said:

    DanSmith said:
    I think if I was trying to get to Heathrow I would have been tempted to go all Alf Garnet.
    One person was shot by police in 2015, one so far in 2016 - he was white.
    On R4 Today a BLM spokesman said that one person dies in police custody each week. Facts are that it was 31 in whole of 2016 from all contact including 3 from road traffic accidents. Just 5 of the 31 were described as BAME.
    Most people who die in police custody do so as a result of overdoses.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited August 2016

    john_zims said:

    @ThreeQuidder

    'Remind you of anyone?

    http://newsthump.com/2016/08/05/48-of-brits-secretly-hoping-the-economy-will-turn-to-shit'


    Must have been an incredible disappointment that interest rates went down instead of up as we were told by numerous experts.

    I am not convinced that yesterdays interest rate drop is a sign of a healthy economy. It looks more like Abenomics to me and that went well in Japan didn't it?

    More QE next, so arrange your affairs accordingly.
    Lets see what happens to the pound first.

    Normally a Weak Pound = Higher Interest Rates and no more QE.

    We are now 0.5% below US interest rates. I imagine investors will react accordingly.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sean_F said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    DanSmith said:
    I think if I was trying to get to Heathrow I would have been tempted to go all Alf Garnet.
    One person was shot by police in 2015, one so far in 2016 - he was white.
    Deaths at police hands are extremely rare in this country, regardless of ethnic origin.
    The ridiculous grievance mongering really annoys me. A small section of the black population WANT racial divide. They encourage upset and outrage - kids talking about 5-0s and Feds, the whole USA schtick that doesn't apply here at all.

    I want to give them a slap with a haddock.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    john_zims said:

    @ThreeQuidder

    'Remind you of anyone?

    http://newsthump.com/2016/08/05/48-of-brits-secretly-hoping-the-economy-will-turn-to-shit'


    Must have been an incredible disappointment that interest rates went down instead of up as we were told by numerous experts.

    I am not convinced that yesterdays interest rate drop is a sign of a healthy economy. It looks more like Abenomics to me and that went well in Japan didn't it?

    More QE next, so arrange your affairs accordingly.
    Quite. The UK economy has been in a strange place for at least three years. Botoxed into respectability by mass immigration, cheap money and debt. Brexit administered a swift kick in the balls to something that was already pretty sickly.

    UK all-sector PMIs peaked in late 2014 and have been on a declining trend ever since.
  • john_zims said:

    @ThreeQuidder

    'Remind you of anyone?

    http://newsthump.com/2016/08/05/48-of-brits-secretly-hoping-the-economy-will-turn-to-shit'
    Must have been an incredible disappointment that interest rates went down instead of up as we were told by numerous experts.

    I am not convinced that yesterdays interest rate drop is a sign of a healthy economy. It looks more like Abenomics to me and that went well in Japan didn't it?
    More QE next, so arrange your affairs accordingly.
    Lets see what happens to the pound first.
    Normally a Weak Pound = Higher Interest Rates and no more QE.
    We are now 0.5% below US interest rates. I imagine investors will react accordingly.
    Exactly, it looks like an act of stupidity designed to undermine confidence in the £.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    The trams are (or were) closed in Nottingham city centre due to a black lives matter protest. My girlfriend and most tram users left in the shit by this are pissed as hell. Thank God they started after I rolled through.
    But musing on BLM, I don't think the police here have ever shot a black person...in fact the last minority to die due to a shooting was a gang incident. So they will get little sympathy.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Sean_F said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    DanSmith said:
    I think if I was trying to get to Heathrow I would have been tempted to go all Alf Garnet.
    One person was shot by police in 2015, one so far in 2016 - he was white.
    Deaths at police hands are extremely rare in this country, regardless of ethnic origin.
    From almost one a week it's down to less than one a fortnight. Annual figures since 2000: 36, 34, 47, 62, 56, 42, 33, 29, 24, 15, 15, 23, 9, 17, 26, 21, and 9 so far this year.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Why in the name of everything holy are Black Lives Matter causing havoc in Britain today ?
    They should be protesting in america, not here, they are nutters.

    I propose their mass arrest and exile to the USA, where they will see real police brutality on african-americans and would have a real reason to protest.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    DanSmith said:
    I think if I was trying to get to Heathrow I would have been tempted to go all Alf Garnet.
    One person was shot by police in 2015, one so far in 2016 - he was white.
    On R4 Today a BLM spokesman said that one person dies in police custody each week. Facts are that it was 31 in whole of 2016 from all contact including 3 from road traffic accidents. Just 5 of the 31 were described as BAME.
    I presume R4 presenters were quick to pull him up on this misinformation? We wouldn't want lies to be spread about the size of this problem.
    Broadcasters informed with facts? You are expecting them all to do the preparation that Andrew Neill does.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited August 2016

    PlatoSaid said:

    DanSmith said:
    I think if I was trying to get to Heathrow I would have been tempted to go all Alf Garnet.
    One person was shot by police in 2015, one so far in 2016 - he was white.
    On R4 Today a BLM spokesman said that one person dies in police custody each week. Facts are that it was 31 in whole of 2016 from all contact including 3 from road traffic accidents. Just 5 of the 31 were described as BAME.
    All ethnicities, 2015:

    21 deaths in Custody;
    4 deaths whilst the Police were in pursuit;
    1 death from a road traffic incident;
    2 from shootings.

    Of which, BAME:

    4 deaths in custody;
    1 shooting.

    http://www.inquest.org.uk/statistics/deaths-in-police-custody (who campaign to lower this)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited August 2016

    PlatoSaid said:

    DanSmith said:
    I think if I was trying to get to Heathrow I would have been tempted to go all Alf Garnet.
    One person was shot by police in 2015, one so far in 2016 - he was white.
    On R4 Today a BLM spokesman said that one person dies in police custody each week. Facts are that it was 31 in whole of 2016 from all contact including 3 from road traffic accidents. Just 5 of the 31 were described as BAME.
    I presume R4 presenters were quick to pull him up on this misinformation? We wouldn't want lies to be spread about the size of this problem.
    Broadcasters informed with facts? You are expecting them all to do the preparation that Andrew Neill does.
    For a £150k+ a year, in a word yes. They aren't on hospital radio or an in-store smooth tunes broadcast.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:


    I remain baffled about all that. It was the thinnest bit of fine-tuning, given that civil partnerships were already a thing. There is also a compelling case to be made that it caused Brexit: because although Brexit was by no means caused by 17,000,000 bigots, the margin was such that the bigot vote was critical. It is possible that gay marriage pumped up the ukip (and non-ukip but anti-gm) froth levels just enough to get them over the finishing line. A world record unintended consequence.

    If it was really the thinnest bit of fine tuning, then WTF didn't Blair go the whole hog and have Labour get all the credit for gay marriage?

    My gay friends believe it finally delivered equality regardless of sexual orientation. Fine tuning? Yeah, right....

    And the extent of dissatisfaction it caused in the Tory party? Massively over-hyped. I found precisely one voter who raised it on the door-step. And it didn't stop her continuing to vote Tory to keep out Ed Miliband.
    Chill. I am thoroughly in favour of gay marriage, but the difference between it and a civil partnership, is a first world difference.

    The point I was making is not about gay marriage per se, it is about what effect it had in galvanising kippers.

    As for dissatisfaction in the tory party, you obviously have some atypically liberal tories where you do your canvassing. You only had to look at Leadsom's disgusting pandering to her "concerned Christian" correspondents to see that hostility was a major thing among conservatives.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    DanSmith said:
    I think if I was trying to get to Heathrow I would have been tempted to go all Alf Garnet.
    One person was shot by police in 2015, one so far in 2016 - he was white.
    Man, how unlucky was he? Shot by the police in two successive years.
    They'll do for him eventually....
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited August 2016
    ''Deaths at police hands are extremely rare in this country, regardless of ethnic origin. ''

    Who gives a f8ck about the protestors. Why aren't we just clearing what amounts to a very few people out of the way? If they want a proper protest march, fine. Why not just arrest and remove?

    Don;t blame the protestors, blame the authorities for letting this happen.
  • Ishmael_X said:


    I remain baffled about all that. It was the thinnest bit of fine-tuning, given that civil partnerships were already a thing. There is also a compelling case to be made that it caused Brexit: because although Brexit was by no means caused by 17,000,000 bigots, the margin was such that the bigot vote was critical. It is possible that gay marriage pumped up the ukip (and non-ukip but anti-gm) froth levels just enough to get them over the finishing line. A world record unintended consequence.

    ...........And the extent of dissatisfaction it caused in the Tory party? Massively over-hyped. I found precisely one voter who raised it on the door-step. And it didn't stop her continuing to vote Tory to keep out Ed Miliband.
    Losing valuable leaflet deliverers is a hidden impairment to future campaigns.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pro_Rata said:

    After all, some of the victories of the last years have been heavily extra-parliamentary in the winning, on gay rights, on the much more hostile environment for foreign interventions, and it has to be remembered the way all shades of Labour politicians often cleave to many forms of political correctness, helpful or not, is a comfort blanket from 80s extra-parliamentary campaigns.

    I know you are rooting for a Smith win, but I'd like you to put yourself in the Corbyn strategist's shoes for at least one of your contributions and answer the question 'How is this all meant to work in the Corbynista's world?'

    Of course the opposite is true

    1 million people (allegedly) marched against the Iraq war, and Blair didn't bat an eyelid.

    Ed Miliband threw a strop in parliament by mistake and we did not intervene in Syria

    If Corbyn was serious about doing things (he isn't) he would want a Labour government (he doesn't)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Sean_F said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    DanSmith said:
    I think if I was trying to get to Heathrow I would have been tempted to go all Alf Garnet.
    One person was shot by police in 2015, one so far in 2016 - he was white.
    On R4 Today a BLM spokesman said that one person dies in police custody each week. Facts are that it was 31 in whole of 2016 from all contact including 3 from road traffic accidents. Just 5 of the 31 were described as BAME.
    Most people who die in police custody do so as a result of overdoses.
    Of black aspirin?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited August 2016
    The other week, I was talking to somebody who was an anti-viv / animal cruelty protestor in the 80s, now a nice middle class housewife. They mused that actually all the aggressive "direct" action just turned the public off their cause and if they had their time again they would have taken a smarter approach.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194

    The other week, I was talking to somebody who was an anti-viv / animal cruelty protestor in the 80s, now a nice middle class housewife. They mused that actually all the aggressive "direct" action just turned the public off their cause and if they had their time again they would have taken a smarter approach.

    Sounds like rationalisation.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    My favourite name of the day so far is going to take some beating: the mayor of Port Elizabeth, one Athol Trollip.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,840
    taffys said:

    ''Deaths at police hands are extremely rare in this country, regardless of ethnic origin. ''

    Who gives a f8ck about the protestors. Why aren't we just clearing what amounts to a very few people out of the way? If they want a proper protest march, fine. Why not just arrest and remove?

    Don;t blame the protestors, blame the authorities for letting this happen.

    Presumably the authorities think that is what the protestors want. Really fuels a sense of righteousness and grievance to get arrested. See Caroline Lucas.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Love this Twitter account

    Whitehall Edits
    The “Pingu” Wikipedia article was just edited anonymously from a UK government computer: https://t.co/EGwTnG28Kv
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    "In 2014 the US Secret Service listed sarcasm detection as a feature it wanted implemented in its social media analytics service."

    Because they've got everything else sorted out so well...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    They probably DO need it in the USA in all fairness..
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited August 2016
    I have seen a photo where the plod have put a screen around them. I think that is fairly smart. Just screen them off, ignore them and concentrate on getting everybody else moving.

    I would tell them they can come out when they start acting like grown ups.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,920

    My favourite name of the day so far is going to take some beating: the mayor of Port Elizabeth, one Athol Trollip.

    Anglicised form: Trollop Island.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    Let's get it on PB. The text could be highlighted in yellow when sarcasm is detected.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Insiders to Trump: Drop out.

    "That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 11 swing states. The majority of GOP insiders, 70 percent, said they want Trump to drop out of the race and be replaced by another Republican candidate"

    image
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited August 2016

    My favourite name of the day so far is going to take some beating: the mayor of Port Elizabeth, one Athol Trollip.

    I knew a "Rosetta Stone". I think she was the daughter of archeologists.
    Yes. Gorgeous.
    If she had a bro. he could be "Roland".
  • Non-Black lives matter....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited August 2016
    So in the UK, the plod aren't shooting black people left, right and centre, in fact they aren't shooting anybody, even knife welding nutters and less die in police custody than demographics should suggest...so I guess back to the plod are racist for arresting (but not hurting) too many black people.

    BUT BUT BUT MARK DUGGAN, MARK DUGGAN...wee angelic Mark Duggan....insert carefully cropped photo.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    The other week, I was talking to somebody who was an anti-viv / animal cruelty protestor in the 80s, now a nice middle class housewife. They mused that actually all the aggressive "direct" action just turned the public off their cause and if they had their time again they would have taken a smarter approach.

    What? You mean digging up granny's grave wasn't a good idea? I'm shocked.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2006/may/12/animalwelfare.topstories3

    12yrs was the least they should've got for this appalling stunt.

    "Three animal rights extremists involved in the theft of the body of an elderly woman from her grave were yesterday jailed for 12 years each in what is seen by police and prosecutors as a groundbreaking case.

    The militants, including a vicar's son and a psychiatric nurse, led what they called a "holocaust" against a farm which bred guinea pigs for medical research. Jon Ablewhite, John Smith and Kerry Whitburn pursued a six-year hate campaign against Darley Oaks farm in Newchurch, Staffordshire. Whitburn's girlfriend, Josephine Mayo, was sentenced to four years for a lesser part in the campaign."
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,920
    Speedy said:

    Why in the name of everything holy are Black Lives Matter causing havoc in Britain today ?
    They should be protesting in america, not here, they are nutters.

    I propose their mass arrest and exile to the USA, where they will see real police brutality on african-americans and would have a real reason to protest.

    I assume Hannan et al are delighted by this evidence of a pan-Anglosphere political protest movement.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,755
    The numbers are so small in any case that it would be hard to draw any conclusions from the percentages.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    My favourite name of the day so far is going to take some beating: the mayor of Port Elizabeth, one Athol Trollip.

    Anglicised form: Trollop Island.
    aka Canvey?
  • BAME game over.
    I doubt they want to look at the racial statistics for violent crime.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Ishmael_X said:

    I remain baffled about all that. It was the thinnest bit of fine-tuning, given that civil partnerships were already a thing. There is also a compelling case to be made that it caused Brexit: because although Brexit was by no means caused by 17,000,000 bigots, the margin was such that the bigot vote was critical. It is possible that gay marriage pumped up the ukip (and non-ukip but anti-gm) froth levels just enough to get them over the finishing line. A world record unintended consequence.

    It lost about 50,000 Conservative members and has defenestrated the party in many areas. Luckily Miliband and the Lib Dems were not up to the job at GE2015.
    We could have had a Lib Dem private members bill and no party fall out. Just another act of internal political stupidity by Cameron and Osborne. I support same sex marriage.
    I don't get this at all. It was a free vote, that is enough for an issue of conscience. If it was a whipped vote I'd get the condemnation.
    Don't complicate matters - they want to bash Cam and Ozzy for bringing the Tory party into the 21st century.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    PlatoSaid said:


    "Three animal rights extremists involved in the theft of the body of an elderly woman from her grave were yesterday jailed for 12 years each in what is seen by police and prosecutors as a groundbreaking case.

    How else were they going to exhume her without breaking ground?

    Top punning, somebody....
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    PlatoSaid said:

    The other week, I was talking to somebody who was an anti-viv / animal cruelty protestor in the 80s, now a nice middle class housewife. They mused that actually all the aggressive "direct" action just turned the public off their cause and if they had their time again they would have taken a smarter approach.

    What? You mean digging up granny's grave wasn't a good idea? I'm shocked.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2006/may/12/animalwelfare.topstories3

    12yrs was the least they should've got for this appalling stunt.

    "Three animal rights extremists involved in the theft of the body of an elderly woman from her grave were yesterday jailed for 12 years each in what is seen by police and prosecutors as a groundbreaking case.

    The militants, including a vicar's son and a psychiatric nurse, led what they called a "holocaust" against a farm which bred guinea pigs for medical research. Jon Ablewhite, John Smith and Kerry Whitburn pursued a six-year hate campaign against Darley Oaks farm in Newchurch, Staffordshire. Whitburn's girlfriend, Josephine Mayo, was sentenced to four years for a lesser part in the campaign."
    Animal rights extremists.

    Ah.

    Takes me back.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPEAK_campaign

    "In January 2006, a student group called Pro-Test was formed by Laurie Pycroft, then a 16-year-old, with the aim of countering SPEAK and defending the use of animals in biomedical research. Both groups called demonstrations in Oxford on February 25, 2006, resulting in about 700 Pro-Test supporters opposed by 200-300 from SPEAK."

    I was there, man.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    ONS
    Getting to know our users - what data do you use and why do you use it? Please share your views in our short survey https://t.co/lfAwV5df7Q
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    john_zims said:

    @ThreeQuidder

    'Remind you of anyone?

    http://newsthump.com/2016/08/05/48-of-brits-secretly-hoping-the-economy-will-turn-to-shit'


    Must have been an incredible disappointment that interest rates went down instead of up as we were told by numerous experts.

    I am not convinced that yesterdays interest rate drop is a sign of a healthy economy. It looks more like Abenomics to me and that went well in Japan didn't it?

    More QE next, so arrange your affairs accordingly.
    Lets see what happens to the pound first.

    Normally a Weak Pound = Higher Interest Rates and no more QE.

    We are now 0.5% below US interest rates. I imagine investors will react accordingly.
    I'd have thought the same but so far the £ is pretty well holding its own after the fall yesterday.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    felix said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    I remain baffled about all that. It was the thinnest bit of fine-tuning, given that civil partnerships were already a thing. There is also a compelling case to be made that it caused Brexit: because although Brexit was by no means caused by 17,000,000 bigots, the margin was such that the bigot vote was critical. It is possible that gay marriage pumped up the ukip (and non-ukip but anti-gm) froth levels just enough to get them over the finishing line. A world record unintended consequence.

    It lost about 50,000 Conservative members and has defenestrated the party in many areas. Luckily Miliband and the Lib Dems were not up to the job at GE2015.
    We could have had a Lib Dem private members bill and no party fall out. Just another act of internal political stupidity by Cameron and Osborne. I support same sex marriage.
    I don't get this at all. It was a free vote, that is enough for an issue of conscience. If it was a whipped vote I'd get the condemnation.
    Don't complicate matters - they want to bash Cam and Ozzy for bringing the Tory party into the 21st century.
    I said these people (opponents of gay marriage) are bigots, and the other poster said "I support same sex marriage" (as do I).

    Were you really the headmaster of a grammar school? If so thank you for vindicating, on an almost daily basis, my opting for private education for my children.

    Substantively, yes it was a free vote but Cameron conspicuously owned it; he could hardly claim it as part of his legacy, otherwise.
  • runnymede said:

    kle4 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Ian Jones
    How Cameron shared out the gongs. Almost a half have gone to political colleagues and advisers. https://t.co/LrqMKp1u7R

    It's his resignation honours - if ever there was a reasonable time to be a bit partisan and reward friends and allies, it is this set.

    And I reiterate that apart from peerages, the rest don't really matter - gongs for politicos have long occurred, so if the meaningfulness of other gongs for the deserving is undermined by such it happened a long time ago.

    EIther we scrap the system, or stop complaining each time this happens.
    It is a very British form of corruption, a form of corruption that gets you some letters after your name, and a visit to the Queen. Not much more than that.
    The solution is really simple - remove the power of patronage from the prime minister and put it in an independent committee appointed by HMQ.
    In any nation the political leaders seek to reward or show gratitude to those who helped put them there. Remove the honours patronage and perversely a far worse set of patronage can arise. Eg giving the great of a quango with a six figure salary etc
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Ooh err

    Leave EU
    Watch this important video message from @JSeymourUKIP on how your UKIP branch can call an EGM to remove the NEC. https://t.co/auFI9cUOlW
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Philip_Thompson


    'Remove the honours patronage and perversely a far worse set of patronage can arise. Eg giving the great of a quango with a six figure salary etc'


    But that already happens.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Ishmael_X said:

    felix said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    I remain baffled about all that. It was the thinnest bit of fine-tuning, given that civil partnerships were already a thing. There is also a compelling case to be made that it caused Brexit: because although Brexit was by no means caused by 17,000,000 bigots, the margin was such that the bigot vote was critical. It is possible that gay marriage pumped up the ukip (and non-ukip but anti-gm) froth levels just enough to get them over the finishing line. A world record unintended consequence.

    It lost about 50,000 Conservative members and has defenestrated the party in many areas. Luckily Miliband and the Lib Dems were not up to the job at GE2015.
    We could have had a Lib Dem private members bill and no party fall out. Just another act of internal political stupidity by Cameron and Osborne. I support same sex marriage.
    I don't get this at all. It was a free vote, that is enough for an issue of conscience. If it was a whipped vote I'd get the condemnation.
    Don't complicate matters - they want to bash Cam and Ozzy for bringing the Tory party into the 21st century.
    I said these people (opponents of gay marriage) are bigots, and the other poster said "I support same sex marriage" (as do I).

    Were you really the headmaster of a grammar school? If so thank you for vindicating, on an almost daily basis, my opting for private education for my children.

    Substantively, yes it was a free vote but Cameron conspicuously owned it; he could hardly claim it as part of his legacy, otherwise.
    Oh dear - you are pre-occupied by my past employment. Maybe try getting a life before that kind of trivia - it weakens your argument. Oh and btw I wasn't actually including you in my 'they' but there you go.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited August 2016
    Ladbroke's are offering 6\1 that Trump will be replaced as the Republican candidate.

    PredictIt say there's a 7% probability that he will withdraw by 31 August.

    Current Betfair prices for next president:

    Ryan - back 100, lay 130
    Kasich - back 700, lay 850
    Pence - back 860, lay 940
    Cruz - back 1000

    Johnson - back 280, lay 320.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,998

    runnymede said:

    kle4 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Ian Jones
    How Cameron shared out the gongs. Almost a half have gone to political colleagues and advisers. https://t.co/LrqMKp1u7R

    It's his resignation honours - if ever there was a reasonable time to be a bit partisan and reward friends and allies, it is this set.

    And I reiterate that apart from peerages, the rest don't really matter - gongs for politicos have long occurred, so if the meaningfulness of other gongs for the deserving is undermined by such it happened a long time ago.

    EIther we scrap the system, or stop complaining each time this happens.
    It is a very British form of corruption, a form of corruption that gets you some letters after your name, and a visit to the Queen. Not much more than that.
    The solution is really simple - remove the power of patronage from the prime minister and put it in an independent committee appointed by HMQ.
    In any nation the political leaders seek to reward or show gratitude to those who helped put them there. Remove the honours patronage and perversely a far worse set of patronage can arise. Eg giving the great of a quango with a six figure salary etc
    Absolutely. Apart from the anomaly of the Lords, which does need reform, British honours give recipients prestige without power; an ideal solution. Far better to reward service or even past favours with a bit of ribbon, metal and enamel than a quango appointment, ambassadorship or the like which is routine in, for example, the US. The reality is that wherever there is a quid there will be the potential for a quo.

    As for 'independent' commissions: no. Independent means unaccountable and there should always be accountability as far as possible. In any case, the Palace is the worst place for rewarding service with gongs - it even has its own Order, with MVOs through to GCVOs.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Court News
    Three men convicted of fundraising for ISIS fighter by flogging stuff on eBay https://t.co/yFIlbYtZ17 #walsall
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Dromedary said:

    Ladbroke's are offering 6\1 that Trump will be replaced as the Republican candidate.

    PredictIt say there's a 7% probability that he will withdraw by 31 August.

    Current Betfair prices for next president:

    Ryan - back 100, lay 130
    Kasich - back 700, lay 850
    Pence - back 860, lay 940

    Johnson - back 280, lay 320.

    Trump may be replaced as a candidate, but the process will be so farcical and the replacement so short of public profile that they would be doomed. Even at those odds I would not touch this market.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    felix said:

    john_zims said:

    @ThreeQuidder

    'Remind you of anyone?

    http://newsthump.com/2016/08/05/48-of-brits-secretly-hoping-the-economy-will-turn-to-shit'


    Must have been an incredible disappointment that interest rates went down instead of up as we were told by numerous experts.

    I am not convinced that yesterdays interest rate drop is a sign of a healthy economy. It looks more like Abenomics to me and that went well in Japan didn't it?

    More QE next, so arrange your affairs accordingly.
    Lets see what happens to the pound first.

    Normally a Weak Pound = Higher Interest Rates and no more QE.

    We are now 0.5% below US interest rates. I imagine investors will react accordingly.
    I'd have thought the same but so far the £ is pretty well holding its own after the fall yesterday.
    The underlying picture in the UK hasn't changed since the 23rd of June. We need a government approved plan for Brexit, but for whatever reason they seem to be doing nothing. Until that changes the movements in Sterling aren't going to be massive. Even in terms of economic growth there isn't a lot different today than in May.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    runnymede said:

    kle4 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Ian Jones
    How Cameron shared out the gongs. Almost a half have gone to political colleagues and advisers. https://t.co/LrqMKp1u7R

    It's his resignation honours - if ever there was a reasonable time to be a bit partisan and reward friends and allies, it is this set.

    And I reiterate that apart from peerages, the rest don't really matter - gongs for politicos have long occurred, so if the meaningfulness of other gongs for the deserving is undermined by such it happened a long time ago.

    EIther we scrap the system, or stop complaining each time this happens.
    It is a very British form of corruption, a form of corruption that gets you some letters after your name, and a visit to the Queen. Not much more than that.
    The solution is really simple - remove the power of patronage from the prime minister and put it in an independent committee appointed by HMQ.
    In any nation the political leaders seek to reward or show gratitude to those who helped put them there. Remove the honours patronage and perversely a far worse set of patronage can arise. Eg giving the great of a quango with a six figure salary etc
    Absolutely. Apart from the anomaly of the Lords, which does need reform, British honours give recipients prestige without power; an ideal solution. Far better to reward service or even past favours with a bit of ribbon, metal and enamel than a quango appointment, ambassadorship or the like which is routine in, for example, the US. The reality is that wherever there is a quid there will be the potential for a quo.

    As for 'independent' commissions: no. Independent means unaccountable and there should always be accountability as far as possible. In any case, the Palace is the worst place for rewarding service with gongs - it even has its own Order, with MVOs through to GCVOs.
    Thought this was interesting from the US, which doesn't have an equivalent:

    "in 1974, 3 percent of retiring members of Congress became lobbyists. “Now 50 percent of senators and 42 percent of congressmen do.” No one goes home anymore."
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    runnymede said:

    kle4 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Ian Jones
    How Cameron shared out the gongs. Almost a half have gone to political colleagues and advisers. https://t.co/LrqMKp1u7R

    It's his resignation honours - if ever there was a reasonable time to be a bit partisan and reward friends and allies, it is this set.

    And I reiterate that apart from peerages, the rest don't really matter - gongs for politicos have long occurred, so if the meaningfulness of other gongs for the deserving is undermined by such it happened a long time ago.

    EIther we scrap the system, or stop complaining each time this happens.
    It is a very British form of corruption, a form of corruption that gets you some letters after your name, and a visit to the Queen. Not much more than that.
    The solution is really simple - remove the power of patronage from the prime minister and put it in an independent committee appointed by HMQ.
    In any nation the political leaders seek to reward or show gratitude to those who helped put them there. Remove the honours patronage and perversely a far worse set of patronage can arise. Eg giving the great of a quango with a six figure salary etc
    Absolutely. Apart from the anomaly of the Lords, which does need reform, British honours give recipients prestige without power; an ideal solution. Far better to reward service or even past favours with a bit of ribbon, metal and enamel than a quango appointment, ambassadorship or the like which is routine in, for example, the US. The reality is that wherever there is a quid there will be the potential for a quo.

    As for 'independent' commissions: no. Independent means unaccountable and there should always be accountability as far as possible. In any case, the Palace is the worst place for rewarding service with gongs - it even has its own Order, with MVOs through to GCVOs.
    Lordships are one thing, but gongs for cronies bothers me not at all.

    What is a resignation honours list for if not rewarding people who have aided the outgoing PM?
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194

    Dromedary said:

    Ladbroke's are offering 6\1 that Trump will be replaced as the Republican candidate.

    PredictIt say there's a 7% probability that he will withdraw by 31 August.

    Current Betfair prices for next president:

    Ryan - back 100, lay 130
    Kasich - back 700, lay 850
    Pence - back 860, lay 940

    Johnson - back 280, lay 320.

    Trump may be replaced as a candidate, but the process will be so farcical and the replacement so short of public profile that they would be doomed. Even at those odds I would not touch this market.
    The replacement might not win, but their price would certainly come in.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Ladbroke's are offering 6\1 that Trump will be replaced as the Republican candidate.

    PredictIt say there's a 7% probability that he will withdraw by 31 August.

    Current Betfair prices for next president:

    Ryan - back 100, lay 130
    Kasich - back 700, lay 850
    Pence - back 860, lay 940

    Johnson - back 280, lay 320.

    Trump may be replaced as a candidate, but the process will be so farcical and the replacement so short of public profile that they would be doomed. Even at those odds I would not touch this market.
    The replacement might not win, but their price would certainly come in.
    Trump will stay the course. If there is one attribute he has it is a thick skin.
  • Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Ladbroke's are offering 6\1 that Trump will be replaced as the Republican candidate.

    PredictIt say there's a 7% probability that he will withdraw by 31 August.

    Current Betfair prices for next president:

    Ryan - back 100, lay 130
    Kasich - back 700, lay 850
    Pence - back 860, lay 940

    Johnson - back 280, lay 320.

    Trump may be replaced as a candidate, but the process will be so farcical and the replacement so short of public profile that they would be doomed. Even at those odds I would not touch this market.
    The replacement might not win, but their price would certainly come in.
    Trump will stay the course. If there is one attribute he has it is a thick skin.
    In fact Trump is exceptionally thin-skinned. He can never resist responding to a slight.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536

    runnymede said:

    kle4 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Ian Jones
    How Cameron shared out the gongs. Almost a half have gone to political colleagues and advisers. https://t.co/LrqMKp1u7R

    It's his resignation honours - if ever there was a reasonable time to be a bit partisan and reward friends and allies, it is this set.

    And I reiterate that apart from peerages, the rest don't really matter - gongs for politicos have long occurred, so if the meaningfulness of other gongs for the deserving is undermined by such it happened a long time ago.

    EIther we scrap the system, or stop complaining each time this happens.
    It is a very British form of corruption, a form of corruption that gets you some letters after your name, and a visit to the Queen. Not much more than that.
    The solution is really simple - remove the power of patronage from the prime minister and put it in an independent committee appointed by HMQ.
    In any nation the political leaders seek to reward or show gratitude to those who helped put them there. Remove the honours patronage and perversely a far worse set of patronage can arise. Eg giving the great of a quango with a six figure salary etc
    I'm sorry - are you suggesting this doesn't happen now??

    Quangos and 'charities' are stuffed full of former politicians and their hangers-on. This is a much bigger problem than the honours system in fact.

    I stand by my suggestion. Let's have a committee for all honours, with quotas on the number to be given out each year. The government of the day may be free (like everyone else) to propose names to it.

    Re the Lords, there should be internal elections among the existing Lords after each GE for a group of working peers of say 200 to sit for the next session, with the shares for each group based on the last GE result plus a reserved share of say 20% for crossbenchers. There should be a limit on new creations of 10 per year.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    runnymede said:

    runnymede said:

    kle4 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Ian Jones
    How Cameron shared out the gongs. Almost a half have gone to political colleagues and advisers. https://t.co/LrqMKp1u7R

    It's his resignation honours - if ever there was a reasonable time to be a bit partisan and reward friends and allies, it is this set.

    And I reiterate that apart from peerages, the rest don't really matter - gongs for politicos have long occurred, so if the meaningfulness of other gongs for the deserving is undermined by such it happened a long time ago.

    EIther we scrap the system, or stop complaining each time this happens.
    It is a very British form of corruption, a form of corruption that gets you some letters after your name, and a visit to the Queen. Not much more than that.
    The solution is really simple - remove the power of patronage from the prime minister and put it in an independent committee appointed by HMQ.
    In any nation the political leaders seek to reward or show gratitude to those who helped put them there. Remove the honours patronage and perversely a far worse set of patronage can arise. Eg giving the great of a quango with a six figure salary etc
    I'm sorry - are you suggesting this doesn't happen now??

    Quangos and 'charities' are stuffed full of former politicians and their hangers-on. This is a much bigger problem than the honours system in fact.

    I stand by my suggestion. Let's have a committee for all honours, with quotas on the number to be given out each year. The government of the day may be free (like everyone else) to propose names to it.

    Re the Lords, there should be internal elections among the existing Lords after each GE for a group of working peers of say 200 to sit for the next session, with the shares for each group based on the last GE result plus a reserved share of say 20% for crossbenchers. There should be a limit on new creations of 10 per year.
    I like that idea.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Alistair said:

    I predicted Clinton would have a lead of +5 by one week after the convention, I see RCP have it as almost +7.

    Shows what I know.

    I'm sure Trump will be pivoting any moment now.

    Trump has pivoted for the election .... the trouble being it was 360 degrees ...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,755
    PlatoSaid said:

    Court News
    Three men convicted of fundraising for ISIS fighter by flogging stuff on eBay https://t.co/yFIlbYtZ17 #walsall

    Not the sharpest tools in the drawer, then.

    We have been fortunate in that most of our Islamist terrorists don't seem to be terribly bright.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,920
    JackW said:

    Alistair said:

    I predicted Clinton would have a lead of +5 by one week after the convention, I see RCP have it as almost +7.

    Shows what I know.

    I'm sure Trump will be pivoting any moment now.

    Trump has pivoted for the election .... the trouble being it was 360 degrees ...
    When his back's against the wall, he turns around and fights.
  • My favourite name of the day so far is going to take some beating: the mayor of Port Elizabeth, one Athol Trollip.

    Responsible Government returns to the Eastern Cape. Rejoice Rejoice
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Ladbroke's are offering 6\1 that Trump will be replaced as the Republican candidate.

    PredictIt say there's a 7% probability that he will withdraw by 31 August.

    Current Betfair prices for next president:

    Ryan - back 100, lay 130
    Kasich - back 700, lay 850
    Pence - back 860, lay 940

    Johnson - back 280, lay 320.

    Trump may be replaced as a candidate, but the process will be so farcical and the replacement so short of public profile that they would be doomed. Even at those odds I would not touch this market.
    The replacement might not win, but their price would certainly come in.
    Trump will stay the course. If there is one attribute he has it is a thick skin.
    And imagine you're him. You basically totally ignore all the conventional wisdom from decades of elections, do whatever you think best, and against the predictions of nearly all the experts, you win the Republican primary. Add to that his presumably already high opinion of himself, and there must be pretty much nothing that could happen that could stop at least a part of him thinking he can still turn this thing around and prove everybody wrong.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930
    Sean_F said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Court News
    Three men convicted of fundraising for ISIS fighter by flogging stuff on eBay https://t.co/yFIlbYtZ17 #walsall

    Not the sharpest tools in the drawer, then.

    We have been fortunate in that most of our Islamist terrorists don't seem to be terribly bright.
    If they were bright they'd be doing something productive with their lives.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    MaxPB said:

    felix said:

    john_zims said:

    @ThreeQuidder

    'Remind you of anyone?

    http://newsthump.com/2016/08/05/48-of-brits-secretly-hoping-the-economy-will-turn-to-shit'


    Must have been an incredible disappointment that interest rates went down instead of up as we were told by numerous experts.

    I am not convinced that yesterdays interest rate drop is a sign of a healthy economy. It looks more like Abenomics to me and that went well in Japan didn't it?

    More QE next, so arrange your affairs accordingly.
    Lets see what happens to the pound first.

    Normally a Weak Pound = Higher Interest Rates and no more QE.

    We are now 0.5% below US interest rates. I imagine investors will react accordingly.
    I'd have thought the same but so far the £ is pretty well holding its own after the fall yesterday.
    The underlying picture in the UK hasn't changed since the 23rd of June. We need a government approved plan for Brexit, but for whatever reason they seem to be doing nothing. Until that changes the movements in Sterling aren't going to be massive. Even in terms of economic growth there isn't a lot different today than in May.
    Agreed - although my own worst fears for sterling have so far not been realised I'm happy to say. On your substantive point I suspect the govt is doing a lot in terms of Brexit thinking but the options are actually none too easy either politically or economically with the 2, one suspects, pulling against each other. Of course the delay adds to the uncertainty but in this instance the 'certainty' has its own dangers attached.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,998

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Ladbroke's are offering 6\1 that Trump will be replaced as the Republican candidate.

    PredictIt say there's a 7% probability that he will withdraw by 31 August.

    Current Betfair prices for next president:

    Ryan - back 100, lay 130
    Kasich - back 700, lay 850
    Pence - back 860, lay 940

    Johnson - back 280, lay 320.

    Trump may be replaced as a candidate, but the process will be so farcical and the replacement so short of public profile that they would be doomed. Even at those odds I would not touch this market.
    The replacement might not win, but their price would certainly come in.
    Trump will stay the course. If there is one attribute he has it is a thick skin.
    And imagine you're him. You basically totally ignore all the conventional wisdom from decades of elections, do whatever you think best, and against the predictions of nearly all the experts, you win the Republican primary. Add to that his presumably already high opinion of himself, and there must be pretty much nothing that could happen that could stop at least a part of him thinking he can still turn this thing around and prove everybody wrong.
    Yes. If there does come a moment when he reckons that his is a lost cause, you'll be able to measure it from close of polls in no more than days, more likely hours.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Court News
    Three men convicted of fundraising for ISIS fighter by flogging stuff on eBay https://t.co/yFIlbYtZ17 #walsall

    Not the sharpest tools in the drawer, then.

    We have been fortunate in that most of our Islamist terrorists don't seem to be terribly bright.
    If they were bright they'd be doing something productive with their lives.
    Young, stupid, aimless people with unproductive lives are ideal candidates for recruitment to an Islamist organisation that tells people that they are superior to the kaffir, can behave violently and lasciviously with impunity and be highly thought of as martyrs.

    It is why the Islamic recruitment in our prisons is so worrying.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    If Australia had the same population density as England, it would have around 3 billion people instead of 24 million.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,920
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-week-they-decided-he-was-crazy-1470354031

    Peggy Noonan - "When you act as if you’re insane, people are liable to think you’re insane. That’s what happened this week. People started to become convinced he was nuts, a total flake."
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    Would be an interesting betting market to have Trump and Owen Smith, who will actually still be in the running on the dates that the Presidential and Labour leadership are due to finish.

    Both, just Trump, just Smith or neither.

    Think my money would be on neither or just Trump. Just cannot see Smith staying the course.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Ladbroke's are offering 6\1 that Trump will be replaced as the Republican candidate.

    PredictIt say there's a 7% probability that he will withdraw by 31 August.

    Current Betfair prices for next president:

    Ryan - back 100, lay 130
    Kasich - back 700, lay 850
    Pence - back 860, lay 940

    Johnson - back 280, lay 320.

    Trump may be replaced as a candidate, but the process will be so farcical and the replacement so short of public profile that they would be doomed. Even at those odds I would not touch this market.
    The replacement might not win, but their price would certainly come in.
    Trump will stay the course. If there is one attribute he has it is a thick skin.
    And imagine you're him. You basically totally ignore all the conventional wisdom from decades of elections, do whatever you think best, and against the predictions of nearly all the experts, you win the Republican primary. Add to that his presumably already high opinion of himself, and there must be pretty much nothing that could happen that could stop at least a part of him thinking he can still turn this thing around and prove everybody wrong.
    Yes. If there does come a moment when he reckons that his is a lost cause, you'll be able to measure it from close of polls in no more than days, more likely hours.
    Suspect he won't think it's a lost cause even when Chief Justice Roberts is administering the oath to Hillary!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    If Australia had the same population density as England, it would have around 3 billion people instead of 24 million.

    It wouldn't have them for long - unless someone had the foresight to invest in water desalination plants....
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Ladbroke's are offering 6\1 that Trump will be replaced as the Republican candidate.

    PredictIt say there's a 7% probability that he will withdraw by 31 August.

    Current Betfair prices for next president:

    Ryan - back 100, lay 130
    Kasich - back 700, lay 850
    Pence - back 860, lay 940

    Johnson - back 280, lay 320.

    Trump may be replaced as a candidate, but the process will be so farcical and the replacement so short of public profile that they would be doomed. Even at those odds I would not touch this market.
    The replacement might not win, but their price would certainly come in.
    Trump will stay the course. If there is one attribute he has it is a thick skin.
    And imagine you're him. You basically totally ignore all the conventional wisdom from decades of elections, do whatever you think best, and against the predictions of nearly all the experts, you win the Republican primary. Add to that his presumably already high opinion of himself, and there must be pretty much nothing that could happen that could stop at least a part of him thinking he can still turn this thing around and prove everybody wrong.
    He's cocky, but he deliberately employs bravado. He's got a long way, surprising many, but I don't think he suffers from the weakness of overestimating his chances or irrational overconfidence.

    In The Art of the Deal he says "I never get too attached to one deal or one approach", and in the same book or possibly in Crippled America (I couldn't find the exact quote) he talks of how it's very important that you should genuinely be prepared to walk away when seeking a "deal".
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Sean_F said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Court News
    Three men convicted of fundraising for ISIS fighter by flogging stuff on eBay https://t.co/yFIlbYtZ17 #walsall

    Not the sharpest tools in the drawer, then.

    We have been fortunate in that most of our Islamist terrorists don't seem to be terribly bright.
    Muslimbeciles?
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    I think it's true that Corbyn doesn't care about getting into government, his mission is to get Labour back to some semblance of its core roots and that's it.

    The country as a whole just isn't occupying the same political ground that Corbyn does nor will it. The general public don't like paying high taxes and don't agree with a borrow and spend programme not when the finances are in the state they are. If we were running a surplus and not investing money in key areas then his approach might get more traction but we just aren't in that situation. Re-nationalizing the railways seems to be one of his key ideas, but was a nationalized railway really that much better? Before my time i'm afraid so I can;t really comment on the pluses and negatives.

    It's all the same with Labour, tax more, spend more, borrow more when that money has run out. Selective Keynesian economics in that they select the parts they like and ditch the bits they don't (Keynes always argued that during the boom times you do save money from taxation for a rainy day fund so you could spend public money on big projects to stimulate the economy during the bad times). Instead Labour just spend, spend and spend.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,998
    runnymede said:

    runnymede said:

    kle4 said:



    It's his resignation honours - if ever there was a reasonable time to be a bit partisan and reward friends and allies, it is this set.

    And I reiterate that apart from peerages, the rest don't really matter - gongs for politicos have long occurred, so if the meaningfulness of other gongs for the deserving is undermined by such it happened a long time ago.

    EIther we scrap the system, or stop complaining each time this happens.

    It is a very British form of corruption, a form of corruption that gets you some letters after your name, and a visit to the Queen. Not much more than that.
    The solution is really simple - remove the power of patronage from the prime minister and put it in an independent committee appointed by HMQ.
    In any nation the political leaders seek to reward or show gratitude to those who helped put them there. Remove the honours patronage and perversely a far worse set of patronage can arise. Eg giving the great of a quango with a six figure salary etc
    I'm sorry - are you suggesting this doesn't happen now??

    Quangos and 'charities' are stuffed full of former politicians and their hangers-on. This is a much bigger problem than the honours system in fact.

    I stand by my suggestion. Let's have a committee for all honours, with quotas on the number to be given out each year. The government of the day may be free (like everyone else) to propose names to it.

    Re the Lords, there should be internal elections among the existing Lords after each GE for a group of working peers of say 200 to sit for the next session, with the shares for each group based on the last GE result plus a reserved share of say 20% for crossbenchers. There should be a limit on new creations of 10 per year.
    It does happen and there may well be good legitimate reasons for it, as well as bad, illegitimate ones. Ex-ministers, former MPs and the like may well have the knowledge, skills and interest to do a good job on a quango.

    I tend to agree on the Lords, though I'd rather have a wholly- or overwhelmingly-elected upper chamber. I've no problem with a phased approach, indeed, I'd prefer election by thirds every three years, which would have an initial beneficial side-effect in that a gradual handover from the current membership would be easier. I'd also prefer composition to be on a longer average - say election results over the last 15 years, given that Lords are appointed for life now anyway - to avoid flash-in-the-pan parties being overrepresented, to preserve institutional memory and culture, and to avoid unnecessary duplication with the Commons.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    jonny83 said:

    I think it's true that Corbyn doesn't care about getting into government, his mission is to get Labour back to some semblance of its core roots and that's it.

    The country as a whole just isn't occupying the same political ground that Corbyn does nor will it. The general public don't like paying high taxes and don't agree with a borrow and spend programme not when the finances are in the state they are. If we were running a surplus and not investing money in key areas then his approach might get more traction but we just aren't in that situation. Re-nationalizing the railways seems to be one of his key ideas, but was a nationalized railway really that much better? Before my time i'm afraid so I can;t really comment on the pluses and negatives.

    It's all the same with Labour, tax more, spend more, borrow more when that money has run out. Selective Keynesian economics in that they select the parts they like and ditch the bits they don't (Keynes always argued that during the boom times you do save money from taxation for a rainy day fund so you could spend public money on big projects to stimulate the economy during the bad times). Instead Labour just spend, spend and spend.

    Anything is better than Southern rail.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    jonny83 said:

    I think it's true that Corbyn doesn't care about getting into government, his mission is to get Labour back to some semblance of its core roots and that's it.

    The country as a whole just isn't occupying the same political ground that Corbyn does nor will it. The general public don't like paying high taxes and don't agree with a borrow and spend programme not when the finances are in the state they are. If we were running a surplus and not investing money in key areas then his approach might get more traction but we just aren't in that situation. Re-nationalizing the railways seems to be one of his key ideas, but was a nationalized railway really that much better? Before my time i'm afraid so I can;t really comment on the pluses and negatives.

    It's all the same with Labour, tax more, spend more, borrow more when that money has run out. Selective Keynesian economics in that they select the parts they like and ditch the bits they don't (Keynes always argued that during the boom times you do save money from taxation for a rainy day fund so you could spend public money on big projects to stimulate the economy during the bad times). Instead Labour just spend, spend and spend.

    The issue for Corbyn is older voters. People like me remember nationalised industries, and those memories aren't happy ones.

    You can argue that rail privatisation was botched, but it doesn't invalidate the principle that privitisation has broadly been a public good.

    We remember rent controls, price and wages councils and all the paraphernalia of a socialist command economy. It was shit, and we don't want it back.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930
    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    If Australia had the same population density as England, it would have around 3 billion people instead of 24 million.

    Although much of Australia is arid desert that is utterly unsuitable to supporting human life.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    If Australia had the same population density as England, it would have around 3 billion people instead of 24 million.

    It wouldn't have them for long - unless someone had the foresight to invest in water desalination plants....
    Anyone who has been to North Queensland in the wet knows that Australia has a lot of freshwater.

    While 2/3 of the country is unsuitable for extensive inhabitation the other 1/3 is a very big country, though paradoxically one of the worlds most urbanised. Even small town Australia is losing people to the cities and suburbs.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    ToryJim said:

    Dromedary said:

    Dromedary said:

    Ladbroke's are offering 6\1 that Trump will be replaced as the Republican candidate.

    PredictIt say there's a 7% probability that he will withdraw by 31 August.

    Current Betfair prices for next president:

    Ryan - back 100, lay 130
    Kasich - back 700, lay 850
    Pence - back 860, lay 940

    Johnson - back 280, lay 320.

    Trump may be replaced as a candidate, but the process will be so farcical and the replacement so short of public profile that they would be doomed. Even at those odds I would not touch this market.
    The replacement might not win, but their price would certainly come in.
    Trump will stay the course. If there is one attribute he has it is a thick skin.
    And imagine you're him. You basically totally ignore all the conventional wisdom from decades of elections, do whatever you think best, and against the predictions of nearly all the experts, you win the Republican primary. Add to that his presumably already high opinion of himself, and there must be pretty much nothing that could happen that could stop at least a part of him thinking he can still turn this thing around and prove everybody wrong.
    Yes. If there does come a moment when he reckons that his is a lost cause, you'll be able to measure it from close of polls in no more than days, more likely hours.
    Suspect he won't think it's a lost cause even when Chief Justice Roberts is administering the oath to Hillary!
    You may be being misled by the image that he is presenting of himself.

    "The final key to the way I promote is bravado. I play to people's fantasies. (...) I call it truthful hyperbole. It's an innocent form of exaggeration - and a very effective form of promotion." (The Art of the Deal).
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191
    jonny83 said:

    I think it's true that Corbyn doesn't care about getting into government, his mission is to get Labour back to some semblance of its core roots and that's it.

    The country as a whole just isn't occupying the same political ground that Corbyn does nor will it. The general public don't like paying high taxes and don't agree with a borrow and spend programme not when the finances are in the state they are. If we were running a surplus and not investing money in key areas then his approach might get more traction but we just aren't in that situation. Re-nationalizing the railways seems to be one of his key ideas, but was a nationalized railway really that much better? Before my time i'm afraid so I can;t really comment on the pluses and negatives.

    It's all the same with Labour, tax more, spend more, borrow more when that money has run out. Selective Keynesian economics in that they select the parts they like and ditch the bits they don't (Keynes always argued that during the boom times you do save money from taxation for a rainy day fund so you could spend public money on big projects to stimulate the economy during the bad times). Instead Labour just spend, spend and spend.

    Keynes was pretty much an advocate of counter cyclical policy so when the economy booms you save and when it shrinks you have leeway to spend. The desired effect is to lower the peaks and raise the troughs to mitigate the cycle. Trouble is that Labour pretends you can be pro-cyclical in a boom and counter-cyclical in a bust.

    The bigger problem is that they usually get turfed out as the problems mount and so you end up with a Conservative government having to be pro-cyclical in a downturn because there's no scope for anything else.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Sean_F said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Court News
    Three men convicted of fundraising for ISIS fighter by flogging stuff on eBay https://t.co/yFIlbYtZ17 #walsall

    Not the sharpest tools in the drawer, then.

    We have been fortunate in that most of our Islamist terrorists don't seem to be terribly bright.
    Muslimbeciles?
    My favourite so far was a bunch discussing targets on Twitter.

    http://metro.co.uk/2015/11/18/terror-plotter-found-out-after-asking-twitter-if-he-should-bomb-westfield-or-the-tube-5509297/
  • http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-week-they-decided-he-was-crazy-1470354031

    Peggy Noonan - "When you act as if you’re insane, people are liable to think you’re insane. That’s what happened this week. People started to become convinced he was nuts, a total flake."

    Has Dr Noonan diagnosed a case of sluggish schizophrenia in Trump ?
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sluggish_schizophrenia
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    If Australia had the same population density as England, it would have around 3 billion people instead of 24 million.

    Although much of Australia is arid desert that is utterly unsuitable to supporting human life.
    Though if you compare like for like with habitable parts of Australia it would still be hundreds of millions people. I grew up in Melbourne which is fully habitable and the density there is nothing like you get here.
  • Jonathan said:

    jonny83 said:

    I think it's true that Corbyn doesn't care about getting into government, his mission is to get Labour back to some semblance of its core roots and that's it.

    The country as a whole just isn't occupying the same political ground that Corbyn does nor will it. The general public don't like paying high taxes and don't agree with a borrow and spend programme not when the finances are in the state they are. If we were running a surplus and not investing money in key areas then his approach might get more traction but we just aren't in that situation. Re-nationalizing the railways seems to be one of his key ideas, but was a nationalized railway really that much better? Before my time i'm afraid so I can;t really comment on the pluses and negatives.

    It's all the same with Labour, tax more, spend more, borrow more when that money has run out. Selective Keynesian economics in that they select the parts they like and ditch the bits they don't (Keynes always argued that during the boom times you do save money from taxation for a rainy day fund so you could spend public money on big projects to stimulate the economy during the bad times). Instead Labour just spend, spend and spend.

    Anything is better than Southern rail.
    Southern rail is a concession not a franchise. It is a concession because the rebuilding of London Bridge station and approaches means it will be too unreliable until 2019 for a franchise to be viable.

    Southern are just being paid a fee to run the service. Importantly in a franchise industrial action has a huge impact on the franchisees finances. In the Southern concession it costs them not a whit.

    The concession terms set by the government also include extending driver only operation and closing most ticket offices.

    It might be construed that the government decided to take advantage of a long period of engineering disruption (london bridge and approaches rebuilding) to force through reform of working practices knowing that subsequent industrial action would come at a time that the service is worse than usual anyway....
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    Dromedary said:


    In The Art of the Deal he says "I never get too attached to one deal or one approach"

    Well, technically he put his name to a book by somebody who wrote that...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    If Australia had the same population density as England, it would have around 3 billion people instead of 24 million.

    It wouldn't have them for long - unless someone had the foresight to invest in water desalination plants....
    Anyone who has been to North Queensland in the wet knows that Australia has a lot of freshwater.

    While 2/3 of the country is unsuitable for extensive inhabitation the other 1/3 is a very big country, though paradoxically one of the worlds most urbanised. Even small town Australia is losing people to the cities and suburbs.
    Vast swathes of the central deserts see great deluges, which turn it briefly a lush green. The problem would be in capture and storage...

    And having seen small town Australia, it's no surprise people up sticks....
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,998
    John_M said:

    jonny83 said:

    I think it's true that Corbyn doesn't care about getting into government, his mission is to get Labour back to some semblance of its core roots and that's it.

    The country as a whole just isn't occupying the same political ground that Corbyn does nor will it. The general public don't like paying high taxes and don't agree with a borrow and spend programme not when the finances are in the state they are. If we were running a surplus and not investing money in key areas then his approach might get more traction but we just aren't in that situation. Re-nationalizing the railways seems to be one of his key ideas, but was a nationalized railway really that much better? Before my time i'm afraid so I can;t really comment on the pluses and negatives.

    It's all the same with Labour, tax more, spend more, borrow more when that money has run out. Selective Keynesian economics in that they select the parts they like and ditch the bits they don't (Keynes always argued that during the boom times you do save money from taxation for a rainy day fund so you could spend public money on big projects to stimulate the economy during the bad times). Instead Labour just spend, spend and spend.

    The issue for Corbyn is older voters. People like me remember nationalised industries, and those memories aren't happy ones.

    You can argue that rail privatisation was botched, but it doesn't invalidate the principle that privitisation has broadly been a public good.

    We remember rent controls, price and wages councils and all the paraphernalia of a socialist command economy. It was shit, and we don't want it back.
    IIRC passenger-miles travelled have doubled since privatisation, after decades of decline. That isn't a coincidence.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930
    Jonathan said:

    jonny83 said:

    I think it's true that Corbyn doesn't care about getting into government, his mission is to get Labour back to some semblance of its core roots and that's it.

    The country as a whole just isn't occupying the same political ground that Corbyn does nor will it. The general public don't like paying high taxes and don't agree with a borrow and spend programme not when the finances are in the state they are. If we were running a surplus and not investing money in key areas then his approach might get more traction but we just aren't in that situation. Re-nationalizing the railways seems to be one of his key ideas, but was a nationalized railway really that much better? Before my time i'm afraid so I can;t really comment on the pluses and negatives.

    It's all the same with Labour, tax more, spend more, borrow more when that money has run out. Selective Keynesian economics in that they select the parts they like and ditch the bits they don't (Keynes always argued that during the boom times you do save money from taxation for a rainy day fund so you could spend public money on big projects to stimulate the economy during the bad times). Instead Labour just spend, spend and spend.

    Anything is better than Southern rail.
    I know several AIDS sufferers who would disagree with you.
This discussion has been closed.