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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Smith vs Corbyn debate showed a Labour Party talking to itself and a long way from power
Assuming that you think Jeremy Corbyn’s reelection as Labour leader is not already a foregone conclusion, tonight’s leadership debate was a good opportunity to see the candidates in action. Owen Smith, perhaps unsurprisingly, was the more polished performer but Jeremy Corbyn had the room.
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Corbyn certainly has the easier pitch, compared to Owen.
Corbyn: Look at my rallies, we are winning by being true to our left wing roots!
Owen: I like Jeremy and his policies, but Jeremy himself is shit.
It's obvious which sounds more like what the base wants to hear.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/761327761235378177
Is that I keep thinking of this clip
http://youtube.com/watch?v=zhyCL-ELRxg
*shudder*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owI7DOeO_yg
I'm not sure that's quite right. Sometimes the answers to a problem are very easy to identify and potentially resolve, but there is no will to take the action would be unpalatable. Whether the current answer to Labour's problems are as easy as those advanced, however, I'd suggest their problem is not that they are coming up with easy answers, but the answers they most want to hear. They're not alone in that regard of course, it's amazing how often the policies we want turn out to be the answer to any problem, but if indeed their current path is opposite to that of the public, they are in a particularly dramatic case of it.
Breaking: At least five alleged plotters in Brussels and Paris attacks received welfare payments from Belgium https://t.co/kPWGMsg1Fn
Con 1270 Ind 1232 Lab 382
https://medium.com/@HarvardGOP/harvard-republican-club-refuses-to-endorse-donald-trump-9f08e8bb5b21#.4c71xwm1e
Women Men All
Clinton 51 43 47
Trump 35 42 38
https://t.co/P7lKrz7e0g
He's got similar problems pitching his policies (the header nails this). He seems forced to fight on Corbyn's turf, but would struggle to outflank him and doesn't look authentic in the role.
To win from such a tricky position he would need to be very lucky or very good and I can't see much sign of either.
Either way, the road seems long and painful for Labour from here.
Am about to watch Suicide Squad, not sure if this is a DC Comics film or a film on the Labour Party
http://www.wsj.com/video/uk-jets-hit-isis-base-in-saddam-former-palace/B4D4C4B6-4AAD-429E-8DFB-0528E6E4FD79.html
ISIS was actually using Saddam Hussein's former palace as a training ground for foreign fighters...
Night all.
Con 318
Ind 138
Lab 130
'A dead person might make a better Lord than some of the current members, an uncharitable person might suggest.'
Like the one that dreamt he was making a speech in the HoL and woke up & found he was ?
'Am I the first, but Owen Smith has risen from obscurity to take on the stupidity of Corbyn and his acolytes. Surely even pbCOM Tories must respect him for that?'
But he hasn't,he mentioned on several occasions that he agrees with the stupid polices, just thinks he would be a better leader.
His shouty, angry personality is very off-putting.
Given that he is up against Theresa, Leanne, Nicola and now probably Diane, his inability to debate with women without using violent and sexist language is likely to be a real problem for Labour.
However, Smith is not going to win. Corbyn is. So it's all academic. Labour will lose the next GE massively. That's the way the hard left will be defeated.
Owen's predecessor in Pontypridd never failed to get less than 50 per cent of the vote, and sometimes over 60 per cent. Owen has got 40 per cent in his two elections. He is not that popular in Wales.
And there is also the matter that a Welsh leader will actually focus attention on the severe failings of the Welsh Government.
It would have been better for the rebels to wait, and coalesce behind a genuinely strong & intelligent candidate. But, maybe a strong & intelligent candidate knows that the cause is lost till after 2020.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/trump-s-presidential-campaign-has-crushed-traffic-his-hotels-casinos-n623081
'The key is that this is a poll of Labour members. Smith is pitching to them, not the electorate. With him in charge Labour could hope to emulate EdM's score last year and perhaps do better in Wales.'
How could he emulate EdM's score last year when his policies are far more extreme than Ed's ?
There seemed to be little if any disagreement this evening on the hard left policies,only leadership.
Or are you saying that Smith is pretending to be far left ?
http://bcomm-wales.gov.uk/2018-review/?lang=en
And cheers Mr Pedley for that. – If the audience reaction to Smith and Corbyn is an indication of who will win the Labour leadership, then Owen Smith may as well stand aside now.
The very rigid, two-party system over here (far more rigid than ours) means that a formal split in the GOP is extremely unlikely. But that system has to serve a much more diverse country. It is mitigated to some extent by the considerable autonomy given state parties in Congressional, state and local elections, but for the Presidency, when a gigantic and diverse society is supposed to choose one man to lead them for four years, it shows its weaknesses I must say.
So, even if he cleans up the Redneck male vote, I can't see him winning the election - too many college educated Americans, women and minorities. But I've been wrong before.
I watched a fair bit of the debate and thought the rowdy audience doesn't bode well for Labour. It's one thing to be disunited, it's another to show it so clearly on national telly. They don't care - it will be a public display of bad temper.
eg our next door MP Mr Skinner has had these shares of vote by election:
1997 75%
2001 69%
2005 65%
2010 50%
2015 51%
Obviously for Skinner it is significantly a demographic cause. Why is Smith different, and it is personal?
The party vote turnouts in Pontypridd look like Owen and the Three Dwarves, which is similar to Ashfield after the Lib Dem vote imploded.
Though I wonder what the Corbynista Cloud Cuckoo land effect will be there?
"Lets hear those closing bitches!"
On the basis of the people in that hall Labour is doomed.
It's not just the big city folk who find his comments about (for example) Mexicans disturbing. And it's not just the liberal elite who believe in free trade.
These are Labour's share of the list vote over the five elections:
1999: 35.4 (Michael/Blair)
2003: 36.6 (Morgan/Blair)
2007: 29.6 (Morgan/Blair)
2011: 36.9 (Jones/Miliband)
2016: 31.5 (Jones/Corbyn)
To score under a third of the vote while in opposition in London (though not in Wales, importantly), was a pretty rotten effort but it was still better than in 2007, never mind elections like the 2009 Euros, where they actually finished behind the Conservatives.
The difference now is that with Plaid challenging them in the Valleys and UKIP having made some inroads generally (though it remains to be seen if this will be maintained given both Brexit and UKIP's less-than-stellar AMs), Labour doesn't need to drop that much further before fall in vote share would translate to meaningful losses of seats at any level of election.
(Although not if you believe the Halifax's 'Top Cat' advert).
Yes Labour are on verge of tipping into becoming a minor party in Wales. Just like SLAB.
Alston Moor (Eden) result:
LDEM: 54.6% (+54.6)
CON: 45.4% (+15.7)
Two Independents who stood before didn't do so this time round.
And the potential PMs within Labour ranks didn't stand because they knew they'd lose again. For as long as Labour won't choose someone that the country would choose, they are in a very deep hole.