Lack of legal experience. Not that stopped Gove or Grayling.
Oh so it's one rule for the 2 blokes and a different one for the woman. Textbook definition of sexism. Oaf.
To be fair Charlie Falconer, it is rumoured that both Anna Soubry and Dominic Raab refused to serve under Liz Truss for those exact reasons.
She's also very young in comparison to her predecessors and younger than both Soubry (by a mile) and Raab. Some people have problems with working for youngsters. Ego.
Also known in her constituency as 'The Tory Trollop'!
This from the 'Turnip Taliban' of deepest Norfolk?
People from Norfolk are weird, especially when it comes to sex. Down there sex is a relative thing.
Mr. 124, whilst I agree that weird abstention move helped Corbyn, given the scale of his victory I think it would've remained a clear win for him.
The fault lies with the likes of Margaret Beckett and other MPs. I single her out because she's been around long enough to remember Militant, yet helped put Corbyn onto the ballot anyway.
With respect I don't think a November election is very likely if Theresa May makes such an announcement at the Tory Conference. Parliament would not reassemble until October 10th which would imply that the earliest possible date for Polling Day would be November 17th. However, that would require Labour to play ball with her plans which is highly unlikely if the polls remain bleak. May could then seek to engineer a No Confidence Vote which if successful would involve a delay of 14 days to ascertain whether an alternative Government could be formed. Such a scenario would take us to December 1st as earliest possible election date.Personally , I suspect that is getting too late in the year and too close to Xmas. There is also some uncertain as to what happens constitutionally if a No Confidence Vote is passed. There is a view that in such circumstances the Government would have to resign with the Leader of the Opposition invited to form a Government and who would then have 14 days to obtain a Vote of Confidence. He would fail and and an election would follow but it might mean that for the duration of the campaign he remains as the caretaker PM! Closest parrallel is what happened in December 1905 when Balfour's Tory Government resigned despite having a majority of over 100. Campbell - Bannerman took office and immediately called an election for January 1906 which produced a Liberal landslide.
I also think an early election is unlikely, but for a reason that has not been mentioned. I was told recently that a significant number of Tory MPs gave May their vote on the express understanding that she would not call an early election. They believe the majority of 12 (in practice, a fair bit larger) is enough to get by until 2020. An early election that went badly wrong for some "black swan" reason - and allowed weak, coalition haggling back into Westminster again - is not a risk worth taking against the prize of just an extra 18 months.
Absolutely right. It is Lab's May 7 2015 10.01 problem. What is it that distinguishes them from the Cons apart from being "nicer" (ho ho)? For too many people - that student nurse included - the two main political parties were no different.
Now, I think there is absolutely a need for a centre-left political party that is not the Conservative Party. But Lab politicians have been woeful in explaining just what it should look like, or what it should believe in.
This is a perpetual problem for the left everywhere. Socialism committed suicide. But if being left wing is not being socialist, what is it? There's a 40 year gap where the left could have been thinking about what comes after socialism, but instead decided to spend it on infighting.
Maybe there *isn't* a need for a centre left party. Maybe the left as we know it died with socialism, and they're just too pig-headed to realise (I'm looking at you Jez).
There will always be a need for a liberal party to counterbalance the social conservatism of the Conservative party. Labour struggles to do this job effectively whilst simultaneously gathering in support from the wwc and ethnic minorities.
On the economy I think it is fair that, somewhere between the collapse of communism and the near-collapse of capitalism, the left has lost its way. That said, I don't think the right understand the economy, either, but since their world view is basically to let the economy get on with it, their lack of understanding doesn't matter so much.
Well of course the left also believes that the wwc consists of fluffy-bunny, socially liberal, come all ye types. Not exactly the case always, as Emily Thornberry observed, to her cost.
Does the left have a coherent definition of what socially liberal means these days? Was Pim Fortuyn a social liberal or a nasty pull-up-the-drawbridge reactionary in their view?
I don't know about the left, but I always saw it as allowing people to lead their individual lives in whatever way they wish, provided they don't harm anyone else in doing so. Of course that's only a high level principle and applying it in practice could fill many episodes of Moral Maze. It clearly contrasts with the Conservative view of value-judgements, preferred lifestyles and so-called 'normality' (a view that clearly extends to Mr Smith).
But I have no expertise on Mr F's politics to offer.
The references to the glorious era of Ed Miliband earlier on this thread (or possibly the last one, it is hard to keep up these days) shows the problem that Labour faces. One of the many reasons he lost in 2015 was that he had no coherent program or ideas about how the country should be run. He had some vaguely interesting critiques of what was wrong and he jumped upon a few bandwagons that had rolled by but any concept of a program for government was completely missing.
If you go back to 2010 the problem was the same. Brown fought a campaign on not being a Tory. He refused to have a spending review or even acknowledge that running the largest deficit in UK history was a problem. He criticised every Tory idea for cuts and had none of his own, on purpose and as a matter of policy.
So you have to go back to the days of Blair to find a Labour party that had anything like a program for government. And much of what he proposed would find little favour with the current Labour party. The internal market, PFI, City Academies, the retention of the Thatcherite rules regulating trade unions and industrial action, the odd privatisation.
What does the current Labour party really want? Does it simply want to be a party of protest and virtue signalling that ignores all of the hard choices a government actually faces? If so, they might as well stay with Corbyn.
If not, what are they proposing? The only idea I have heard so far from Owen Smith was £200bn of public QE. That sounds initially absurd although possibly less so to those who heard Martin Wolf's program on R4 this morning which was a bit woolly but did emphasise the extent of the mess we are in. Surely there has to be more than that though. How do they think they can improve the opportunities and lot of the have nots and the not getting any more for years and years of our society?
Corbyn is utterly useless and Labour made a terrible mistake in electing him. But he is also a symptom rather than the problem and if Owen Smith is going to challenge him in any material way he needs to address the real issue: what is Labour for? I would be genuinely interested in what our more Labour inclined posters had to say in answer to that question.
1. No working government majority 2. Labour summer of Chaos, Tories summer of competence as they set out the principles for Brexit negotiation 3. Last week of September: Corbyn re-elected Leader. Chaotic angry conference 4. First week of October. May sets out platform. Announces intention to seek renewed mandate 5. 10th October. Parliament resumes. A motion “That there shall be an early parliamentary general election.” is tabled as set out in the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Labour MPs have two choices. Acquiesce and risk losing their seats quickly. Or refuse to go to the people and guarantee losing their seats slowly. 6. Motion is carried. Parliament wraps itself up before dissolving 17 working days before polling day, which will be 10th November
The MPs’ vote of no confidence in Corbyn doesn’t make me nervous because those politicians have never represented me. They have always been ineffective and Corbyn does a much better job of explaining what he believes in than them.
Absolutely right. It is Lab's May 7 2015 10.01 problem. What is it that distinguishes them from the Cons apart from being "nicer" (ho ho)? For too many people - that student nurse included - the two main political parties were no different.
Now, I think there is absolutely a need for a centre-left political party that is not the Conservative Party. But Lab politicians have been woeful in explaining just what it should look like, or what it should believe in.
This is a perpetual problem for the left everywhere. Socialism committed suicide. But if being left wing is not being socialist, what is it? There's a 40 year gap where the left could have been thinking about what comes after socialism, but instead decided to spend it on infighting.
Maybe there *isn't* a need for a centre left party. Maybe the left as we know it died with socialism, and they're just too pig-headed to realise (I'm looking at you Jez).
That's a persuasive argument, but the US shows that it's possible to have a bitterly divided two party system in the complete absence of socialism.
The US is a two-party system but not a two-political philosophy one. The republicans and democrats are both institutionally corrupt, rentier, big government, establishment, elite, military industrial scams. This is why Trump co-opting the Republicans is such a shoick and why the seriously establishment Republicans like Cruz are so openly hostile. It's as if Farage waltzed in and became leader of the Tories.
I thought Cruz was hated by establishment Republicans?
1. No working government majority 2. Labour summer of Chaos, Tories summer of competence as they set out the principles for Brexit negotiation 3. Last week of September: Corbyn re-elected Leader. Chaotic angry conference 4. First week of October. May sets out platform. Announces intention to seek renewed mandate 5. 10th October. Parliament resumes. A motion “That there shall be an early parliamentary general election.” is tabled as set out in the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Labour MPs have two choices. Acquiesce and risk losing their seats quickly. Or refuse to go to the people and guarantee losing their seats slowly. 6. Motion is carried. Parliament wraps itself up before dissolving 17 working days before polling day, which will be 10th November
Lack of legal experience. Not that stopped Gove or Grayling.
Oh so it's one rule for the 2 blokes and a different one for the woman. Textbook definition of sexism. Oaf.
To be fair Charlie Falconer, it is rumoured that both Anna Soubry and Dominic Raab refused to serve under Liz Truss for those exact reasons.
She's also very young in comparison to her predecessors and younger than both Soubry (by a mile) and Raab. Some people have problems with working for youngsters. Ego.
Also known in her constituency as 'The Tory Trollop'!
This from the 'Turnip Taliban' of deepest Norfolk?
People from Pakistan are weird, especially when it comes to sex. Down there sex is a relative thing.
With respect I don't think a November election is very likely if Theresa May makes such an announcement at the Tory Conference. Parliament would not reassemble until October 10th which would imply that the earliest possible date for Polling Day would be November 17th. However, that would require Labour to play ball with her plans which is highly unlikely if the polls remain bleak. May could then seek to engineer a No Confidence Vote which if successful would involve a delay of 14 days to ascertain whether an alternative Government could be formed. Such a scenario would take us to December 1st as earliest possible election date.Personally , I suspect that is getting too late in the year and too close to Xmas. There is also some uncertain as to what happens constitutionally if a No Confidence Vote is passed. There is a view that in such circumstances the Government would have to resign with the Leader of the Opposition invited to form a Government and who would then have 14 days to obtain a Vote of Confidence. He would fail and and an election would follow but it might mean that for the duration of the campaign he remains as the caretaker PM! Closest parrallel is what happened in December 1905 when Balfour's Tory Government resigned despite having a majority of over 100. Campbell - Bannerman took office and immediately called an election for January 1906 which produced a Liberal landslide.
I also think an early election is unlikely, but for a reason that has not been mentioned. I was told recently that a significant number of Tory MPs gave May their vote on the express understanding that she would not call an early election. They believe the majority of 12 (in practice, a fair bit larger) is enough to get by until 2020. An early election that went badly wrong for some "black swan" reason - and allowed weak, coalition haggling back into Westminster again - is not a risk worth taking against the prize of just an extra 18 months.
That does raise an interesting question of what would happen in a coalition scenario in an early election if neither Labour nor the Tories were promising to halt Brexit (and I cannot see either promising that) but the LDs presumably would. Even with a spectacular recovery the LDs would be junior partner, so what would be their price for cooperation I wonder.
But the risk of such a scenario is indeed another reason why there will not be an early election.
The references to the glorious era of Ed Miliband earlier on this thread (or possibly the last one, it is hard to keep up these days) shows the problem that Labour faces. One of the many reasons he lost in 2015 was that he had no coherent program or ideas about how the country should be run. He had some vaguely interesting critiques of what was wrong and he jumped upon a few bandwagons that had rolled by but any concept of a program for government was completely missing.
If you go back to 2010 the problem was the same. Brown fought a campaign on not being a Tory. He refused to have a spending review or even acknowledge that running the largest deficit in UK history was a problem. He criticised every Tory idea for cuts and had none of his own, on purpose and as a matter of policy.
So you have to go back to the days of Blair to find a Labour party that had anything like a program for government. And much of what he proposed would find little favour with the current Labour party. The internal market, PFI, City Academies, the retention of the Thatcherite rules regulating trade unions and industrial action, the odd privatisation.
What does the current Labour party really want? Does it simply want to be a party of protest and virtue signalling that ignores all of the hard choices a government actually faces? If so, they might as well stay with Corbyn.
If not, what are they proposing? The only idea I have heard so far from Owen Smith was £200bn of public QE. That sounds initially absurd although possibly less so to those who heard Martin Wolf's program on R4 this morning which was a bit woolly but did emphasise the extent of the mess we are in. Surely there has to be more than that though. How do they think they can improve the opportunities and lot of the have nots and the not getting any more for years and years of our society?
Corbyn is utterly useless and Labour made a terrible mistake in electing him. But he is also a symptom rather than the problem and if Owen Smith is going to challenge him in any material way he needs to address the real issue: what is Labour for? I would be genuinely interested in what our more Labour inclined posters had to say in answer to that question.
A great deal of Blair's stuff that you talk about was in actually fact Brown's. He was the driving force in Opposition working on policy, especially economic. I think part of his problem as PM was he had used up his drawer of policy ideas already.
When you recall Brown in his heyday as shadow CoE, laying into the Tories every day and then look at the state of Labour today, well frankly is is shameful.
Clearly though Labour have to go through this, one way or another.
The MPs’ vote of no confidence in Corbyn doesn’t make me nervous because those politicians have never represented me. They have always been ineffective and Corbyn does a much better job of explaining what he believes in than them.
Absolutely right. It is Lab's May 7 2015 10.01 problem. What is it that distinguishes them from the Cons apart from being "nicer" (ho ho)? For too many people - that student nurse included - the two main political parties were no different.
Now, I think there is absolutely a need for a centre-left political party that is not the Conservative Party. But Lab politicians have been woeful in explaining just what it should look like, or what it should believe in.
This is a perpetual problem for the left everywhere. Socialism committed suicide. But if being left wing is not being socialist, what is it? There's a 40 year gap where the left could have been thinking about what comes after socialism, but instead decided to spend it on infighting.
Maybe there *isn't* a need for a centre left party. Maybe the left as we know it died with socialism, and they're just too pig-headed to realise (I'm looking at you Jez).
That's a persuasive argument, but the US shows that it's possible to have a bitterly divided two party system in the complete absence of socialism.
The US is a two-party system but not a two-political philosophy one. The republicans and democrats are both institutionally corrupt, rentier, big government, establishment, elite, military industrial scams. This is why Trump co-opting the Republicans is such a shoick and why the seriously establishment Republicans like Cruz are so openly hostile. It's as if Farage waltzed in and became leader of the Tories.
I thought Cruz was hated by establishment Republicans?
Could you help me out with what a "free society" means as in "The Liberal Democrats exist to build and safeguard a fair, free and open society.."
Edit: and an "open" one and a "fair" one while we're about it pls.
One with more Lib Dems.
LOL.
I think the same when Greens (I have a bit of a bugbear with Greens, though I did read their manifesto - the tables at the back on finances made me feel better, even though it was probably nonsense) talk about a more progressive society. Progressive presumably meaning one where Greens are not laughed at.
With respect I don't think a November election is very likely if Theresa May makes such an announcement at the Tory Conference. Parliament would not reassemble until October 10th which would imply that the earliest possible date for Polling Day would be November 17th. However, that would require Labour to play ball with her plans which is highly unlikely if the polls remain bleak. May could then seek to engineer a No Confidence Vote which if successful would involve a delay of 14 days to ascertain whether an alternative Government could be formed. Such a scenario would take us to December 1st as earliest possible election date.Personally , I suspect that is getting too late in the year and too close to Xmas. There is also some uncertain as to what happens constitutionally if a No Confidence Vote is passed. There is a view that in such circumstances the Government would have to resign with the Leader of the Opposition invited to form a Government and who would then have 14 days to obtain a Vote of Confidence. He would fail and and an election would follow but it might mean that for the duration of the campaign he remains as the caretaker PM! Closest parrallel is what happened in December 1905 when Balfour's Tory Government resigned despite having a majority of over 100. Campbell - Bannerman took office and immediately called an election for January 1906 which produced a Liberal landslide.
I also think an early election is unlikely, but for a reason that has not been mentioned. I was told recently that a significant number of Tory MPs gave May their vote on the express understanding that she would not call an early election. They believe the majority of 12 (in practice, a fair bit larger) is enough to get by until 2020. An early election that went badly wrong for some "black swan" reason - and allowed weak, coalition haggling back into Westminster again - is not a risk worth taking against the prize of just an extra 18 months.
May has said no. I think we are getting the idea that when she says no, she means no.
The MPs’ vote of no confidence in Corbyn doesn’t make me nervous because those politicians have never represented me. They have always been ineffective and Corbyn does a much better job of explaining what he believes in than them.
Absolutely right. It is Lab's May 7 2015 10.01 problem. What is it that distinguishes them from the Cons apart from being "nicer" (ho ho)? For too many people - that student nurse included - the two main political parties were no different.
Now, I think there is absolutely a need for a centre-left political party that is not the Conservative Party. But Lab politicians have been woeful in explaining just what it should look like, or what it should believe in.
This is a perpetual problem for the left everywhere. Socialism committed suicide. But if being left wing is not being socialist, what is it? There's a 40 year gap where the left could have been thinking about what comes after socialism, but instead decided to spend it on infighting.
Maybe there *isn't* a need for a centre left party. Maybe the left as we know it died with socialism, and they're just too pig-headed to realise (I'm looking at you Jez).
That's a persuasive argument, but the US shows that it's possible to have a bitterly divided two party system in the complete absence of socialism.
Pretty obvious Labour only has one problem - the MPs.
Corbyn should get rid ASAP - trigger 150+ bye elections for November.
Would put an end to the infighting for good.
This rather misses the point that Corbyn has no say in that. It was the electorate who put those MPs into the house. He can't trigger any by-elections. They are Members of Parliament and can only leave by the usual routes - not just because Corbyn feels like a purge.
Such a shame that all 650 seats in the House of Commons are disappearing to be replaced by 600 new ones.
No such thing as an incumbent at the next GE
There'll definitely be two in Scotland (assuming Carmichael stands again), but won't be many more.
I think there were about 60 completely unchanged seats in the 1st Draft English boundary review that was cancelled in 2012.
I know that seems a surprisingly high figure but am sure it's right - eg every North Yorkshire seat was left unchanged from memory.
I didn't realise there were as many as sixty, though I do remember the N Yorks seats all being unchanged in the final version.
Dorset and Wiltshire lose a seat between them
Presumably Chippenham, which was created in 2010 as a notional LD seat (and was indeed held by them 2010-15) - there goes a LD target seat I guess.
The MPs’ vote of no confidence in Corbyn doesn’t make me nervous because those politicians have never represented me. They have always been ineffective and Corbyn does a much better job of explaining what he believes in than them.
Absolutely right. It is Lab's May 7 2015 10.01 problem. What is it that distinguishes them from the Cons apart from being "nicer" (ho ho)? For too many people - that student nurse included - the two main political parties were no different.
Now, I think there is absolutely a need for a centre-left political party that is not the Conservative Party. But Lab politicians have been woeful in explaining just what it should look like, or what it should believe in.
This is a perpetual problem for the left everywhere. Socialism committed suicide. But if being left wing is not being socialist, what is it? There's a 40 year gap where the left could have been thinking about what comes after socialism, but instead decided to spend it on infighting.
Maybe there *isn't* a need for a centre left party. Maybe the left as we know it died with socialism, and they're just too pig-headed to realise (I'm looking at you Jez).
That's a persuasive argument, but the US shows that it's possible to have a bitterly divided two party system in the complete absence of socialism.
The US is a two-party system but not a two-political philosophy one. The republicans and democrats are both institutionally corrupt, rentier, big government, establishment, elite, military industrial scams. This is why Trump co-opting the Republicans is such a shoick and why the seriously establishment Republicans like Cruz are so openly hostile. It's as if Farage waltzed in and became leader of the Tories.
"the seriously establishment Republicans like Cruz" - LOL
That phrase is wrong, however it is read:
- The Establishment hate Cruz - remember that earlier this year not one Republican Senator would yield the floor to him. - Cruz is not from the Establishment but from that part of the Tea Party which was violently anti-Establishment.
Lack of legal experience. Not that stopped Gove or Grayling.
Oh so it's one rule for the 2 blokes and a different one for the woman. Textbook definition of sexism. Oaf.
To be fair Charlie Falconer, it is rumoured that both Anna Soubry and Dominic Raab refused to serve under Liz Truss for those exact reasons.
She's also very young in comparison to her predecessors and younger than both Soubry (by a mile) and Raab. Some people have problems with working for youngsters. Ego.
Also known in her constituency as 'The Tory Trollop'!
This from the 'Turnip Taliban' of deepest Norfolk?
People from Norfolk are weird, especially when it comes to sex. Down there sex is a relative thing.
A great deal of Blair's stuff that you talk about was in actually fact Brown's. He was the driving force in Opposition working on policy, especially economic. I think part of his problem as PM was he had used up his drawer of policy ideas already.
When you recall Brown in his heyday as shadow CoE, laying into the Tories every day and then look at the state of Labour today, well frankly is is shameful.
Clearly though Labour have to go through this, one way or another.
I suspect that you are right about that but I also think that the really successful governments of recent times have been partnerships namely Blair/Brown and Cameron/Osborne. The job is way too big for one person and needs a split between a front man and a detail man.
I am really struggling to see Owen Smith and Angela Eagle in that bracket but maybe they will surprise. I want to see where the ideas and overarching philosophy are coming from. Labour seem completely bereft of both at the moment.
With respect I don't think a November election is very likely if Theresa May makes such an announcement at the Tory Conference. Parliament would not reassemble until October 10th which would imply that the earliest possible date for Polling Day would be November 17th. However, that would require Labour to play ball with her plans which is highly unlikely if the polls remain bleak. May could then seek to engineer a No Confidence Vote which if successful would involve a delay of 14 days to ascertain whether an alternative Government could be formed. Such a scenario would take us to December 1st as earliest possible election date.Personally , I suspect that is getting too late in the year and too close to Xmas. There is also some uncertain as to what happens constitutionally if a No Confidence Vote is passed. There is a view that in such circumstances the Government would have to resign with the Leader of the Opposition invited to form a Government and who would then have 14 days to obtain a Vote of Confidence. He would fail and and an election would follow but it might mean that for the duration of the campaign he remains as the caretaker PM! Closest parrallel is what happened in December 1905 when Balfour's Tory Government resigned despite having a majority of over 100. Campbell - Bannerman took office and immediately called an election for January 1906 which produced a Liberal landslide.
I also think an early election is unlikely, but for a reason that has not been mentioned. I was told recently that a significant number of Tory MPs gave May their vote on the express understanding that she would not call an early election. They believe the majority of 12 (in practice, a fair bit larger) is enough to get by until 2020. An early election that went badly wrong for some "black swan" reason - and allowed weak, coalition haggling back into Westminster again - is not a risk worth taking against the prize of just an extra 18 months.
May has said no. I think we are getting the idea that when she says no, she means no.
I don't see why we are getting that idea. She's a politician - she won't lie if she can help it (too risky), but she will indicate her preference in terms that brook no equivocation or hesitation, but if the situation changes she will pivot as she thinks appropriate.
Were we to buy the narrative that she says no and that is that, I don't see how that is an argument in her favour, as it apes the inflexibility that is one of Corbyn's least attractive qualities. It's all very well her being firmer than Cameron, but deep down would we really want her to be committed to something she said now for years in advance, with a very fluid situation ahead?
Aiden Kerry I return to this thread with news @thetimes' year-on-year print sales are up 34% in Scotland. Opinion writing is what consumers want.
Why pay for it though? There is a greater breadth of informed opinion on this site that any of the broadsheets turns out. There are a bunch of folks on here whose opinion I value more than any I get offered for £1.40 a day or whatever. And I can engage directly with them, and heaven knows, on rare occasion, bring something to the discussion.
Plus I get real time updates on who the Grim Reaper has collected. Sports updates. And awful puns. Even updates on how the Second Punic Wars are going.
1. No working government majority 2. Labour summer of Chaos, Tories summer of competence as they set out the principles for Brexit negotiation 3. Last week of September: Corbyn re-elected Leader. Chaotic angry conference 4. First week of October. May sets out platform. Announces intention to seek renewed mandate 5. 10th October. Parliament resumes. A motion “That there shall be an early parliamentary general election.” is tabled as set out in the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Labour MPs have two choices. Acquiesce and risk losing their seats quickly. Or refuse to go to the people and guarantee losing their seats slowly. 6. Motion is carried. Parliament wraps itself up before dissolving 17 working days before polling day, which will be 10th November
10th November sunset times:
Truro 4:42 Birmingham 4:22 Manchester 4:19 London 4:18 Edinburgh 4:13 Lerwick 3:42
Aiden Kerry I return to this thread with news @thetimes' year-on-year print sales are up 34% in Scotland. Opinion writing is what consumers want.
Why pay for it though? There is a greater breadth of informed opinion on this site that any of the broadsheets turns out. There are a bunch of folks on here whose opinion I value more than any I get offered for £1.40 a day or whatever. And I can engage directly with them, and heaven knows, on rare occasion, bring something to the discussion.
Plus I get real time updates on who the Grim Reaper has collected. Sports updates. And awful puns. Even updates on how the Second Punic Wars are going.
Nah. This place is the dogs.
Feel exactly the same. When a big story is breaking this site is far more informative than any one of the MSM sites and the comments are often far more expert and illuminating. I come here first.
1. No working government majority 2. Labour summer of Chaos, Tories summer of competence as they set out the principles for Brexit negotiation 3. Last week of September: Corbyn re-elected Leader. Chaotic angry conference 4. First week of October. May sets out platform. Announces intention to seek renewed mandate 5. 10th October. Parliament resumes. A motion “That there shall be an early parliamentary general election.” is tabled as set out in the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Labour MPs have two choices. Acquiesce and risk losing their seats quickly. Or refuse to go to the people and guarantee losing their seats slowly. 6. Motion is carried. Parliament wraps itself up before dissolving 17 working days before polling day, which will be 10th November
10th November sunset times:
Truro 4:42 Birmingham 4:22 Manchester 4:19 London 4:18 Edinburgh 4:13 Lerwick 3:42
Surely not?
They have sun in Lerwick in November? Really? Wow.
German officials anonymously briefing that the 'no pre-negotiation' stance on A50 will need to be dropped and that the two year negotiation period for exit will need to be extended.
Aiden Kerry I return to this thread with news @thetimes' year-on-year print sales are up 34% in Scotland. Opinion writing is what consumers want.
Why pay for it though? There is a greater breadth of informed opinion on this site that any of the broadsheets turns out. There are a bunch of folks on here whose opinion I value more than any I get offered for £1.40 a day or whatever. And I can engage directly with them, and heaven knows, on rare occasion, bring something to the discussion.
Plus I get real time updates on who the Grim Reaper has collected. Sports updates. And awful puns. Even updates on how the Second Punic Wars are going.
Nah. This place is the dogs.
Feel exactly the same. When a big story is breaking this site is far more informative than any one of the MSM sites and the comments are often far more expert and illuminating. I come here first.
Also I hardly go on Twitter as it's frankly a bit rubbish, and you're limited to a poxy 140 characters.
I've been thinking about whether Labour have chosen the better candidate in Jones over Eagle. I was pro-Jones but maybe Eagle with her greater experience and profile would have been the better pick.
Mind you Eagle's launch of her candidacy was poor. Policy-lite and eyrie-fairy.
German officials anonymously briefing that the 'no pre-negotiation' stance on A50 will need to be dropped and that the two year negotiation period for exit will need to be extended.
That article seems to hint that some in Europe are starting to think Britain is in a strong position.
They must be unnerved by recent developments ie companies not moving and the world and its wife wanting a trade deal.
Aiden Kerry I return to this thread with news @thetimes' year-on-year print sales are up 34% in Scotland. Opinion writing is what consumers want.
Why pay for it though? There is a greater breadth of informed opinion on this site that any of the broadsheets turns out. There are a bunch of folks on here whose opinion I value more than any I get offered for £1.40 a day or whatever. And I can engage directly with them, and heaven knows, on rare occasion, bring something to the discussion.
Plus I get real time updates on who the Grim Reaper has collected. Sports updates. And awful puns. Even updates on how the Second Punic Wars are going.
Nah. This place is the dogs.
Feel exactly the same. When a big story is breaking this site is far more informative than any one of the MSM sites and the comments are often far more expert and illuminating. I come here first.
Plus sometimes we send our own correspondent to the heart of the action.
Aiden Kerry I return to this thread with news @thetimes' year-on-year print sales are up 34% in Scotland. Opinion writing is what consumers want.
Why pay for it though? There is a greater breadth of informed opinion on this site that any of the broadsheets turns out. There are a bunch of folks on here whose opinion I value more than any I get offered for £1.40 a day or whatever. And I can engage directly with them, and heaven knows, on rare occasion, bring something to the discussion.
Plus I get real time updates on who the Grim Reaper has collected. Sports updates. And awful puns. Even updates on how the Second Punic Wars are going.
Nah. This place is the dogs.
Feel exactly the same. When a big story is breaking this site is far more informative than any one of the MSM sites and the comments are often far more expert and illuminating. I come here first.
Plus sometimes we send our own correspondent to the heart of the action.
True, but after the BJO experiment I think that is on the back burner.
German officials anonymously briefing that the 'no pre-negotiation' stance on A50 will need to be dropped and that the two year negotiation period for exit will need to be extended.
Yeah, I think that it is becoming clearer by the day that this 'no negotiation before Article 50' stance is nonsense and will have be abandoned. This mess is complicated and dangerous enough for all parties as it is, without artificially making it even more unworkable.
German officials anonymously briefing that the 'no pre-negotiation' stance on A50 will need to be dropped and that the two year negotiation period for exit will need to be extended.
That article seems to hint that some in Europe are starting to think Britain is in a strong position.
They must be unnerved by recent developments ie companies not moving and the world and its wife wanting a trade deal.
It's come within twenty-four hours of May meeting Merkel. Coincidence?
1. No working government majority 2. Labour summer of Chaos, Tories summer of competence as they set out the principles for Brexit negotiation 3. Last week of September: Corbyn re-elected Leader. Chaotic angry conference 4. First week of October. May sets out platform. Announces intention to seek renewed mandate 5. 10th October. Parliament resumes. A motion “That there shall be an early parliamentary general election.” is tabled as set out in the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Labour MPs have two choices. Acquiesce and risk losing their seats quickly. Or refuse to go to the people and guarantee losing their seats slowly. 6. Motion is carried. Parliament wraps itself up before dissolving 17 working days before polling day, which will be 10th November
Calling an election by such a motion would require the support of 434 of the 650 MPs. If polls are indicating Tory leads of circa 10% why would Labour MPs vote for a dissolution likely to cost them their seats? Frankly I find it far from obvious that refusing to bow to the PM's wishes would guarantee losing their seats at a later date. Theresa May has already provided ample ammunition to justify their opposition anyway! I don't think she will want to risk being labelled a cynical barefaced liar quite so soon. On a point of detail , since the FTPA 25 working days are required from Dissolution - no longer 17! That might imply that earliest Polling Day would be November 24th.
I've been thinking about whether Labour have chosen the better candidate in Jones over Eagle. I was pro-Jones but maybe Eagle with her greater experience and profile would have been the better pick.
Mind you Eagle's launch of her candidacy was poor. Policy-lite and eyrie-fairy.
German officials anonymously briefing that the 'no pre-negotiation' stance on A50 will need to be dropped and that the two year negotiation period for exit will need to be extended.
The twentieth century was marked by Germany serially under-estimated British resolve.
Seems maybe they are finally realising they shouldn't make the same mistake in the twenty first....
Mr Kle4 - I agree that the Prime Minister will not box herself in to not holding an election before 2020, but she isn't stupid. She knows the FTPA makes it incredibly hard to hold a general election outside the 5 yearly timetable and impossible to hold a surprise election.
I also can forgive her for not wanting to roll the dice to gain an extra 14 months. There's no guarantee that the electorate will give her an enormous majority and reasons to suspect that whilst the Labour vote would go down it might not automatically improve the Conservative position. Also I'm of the opinion that it's disadvantageous to fight the inferno when you can wait and deal with the ashes; and sweep up!
German officials anonymously briefing that the 'no pre-negotiation' stance on A50 will need to be dropped and that the two year negotiation period for exit will need to be extended.
The twentieth century was marked by Germany serially under-estimated British resolve.
Seems maybe they are finally realising they shouldn't make the same mistake in the twenty first....
No, it's German officials being more realistic than those of the EU bureaucracy and of many of the other countries. However, we unfortunately can't negotiate only with Germany. It's an utter shambles, and I think the markets and business are hugely underestimating the scale of the problem.
German officials anonymously briefing that the 'no pre-negotiation' stance on A50 will need to be dropped and that the two year negotiation period for exit will need to be extended.
Yeah, I think that it is becoming clearer by the day that this 'no negotiation before Article 50' stance is nonsense and will have be abandoned. This mess is complicated and dangerous enough for all parties as it is, without artificially making it even more unworkable.
I would suggest a compromise by which May undertakes to give the formal notice by a particular date (such as 31.5.17) should allow things to get moving. What is increasingly obvious is that this is a done deal and May, a remainer, has made that clear in Germany. So now it is in everyone's interest to stop moaning and get on with it in a pragmatic way. And I think they will.
I've been thinking about whether Labour have chosen the better candidate in Jones over Eagle. I was pro-Jones but maybe Eagle with her greater experience and profile would have been the better pick.
Mind you Eagle's launch of her candidacy was poor. Policy-lite and eyrie-fairy.
I can think of at least 3 PLP members that are better than either!
I've been thinking about whether Labour have chosen the better candidate in Jones over Eagle. I was pro-Jones but maybe Eagle with her greater experience and profile would have been the better pick.
Mind you Eagle's launch of her candidacy was poor. Policy-lite and eyrie-fairy.
The references to the glorious era of Ed Miliband earlier on this thread (or possibly the last one, it is hard to keep up these days) shows the problem that Labour faces. One of the many reasons he lost in 2015 was that he had no coherent program or ideas about how the country should be run. He had some vaguely interesting critiques of what was wrong and he jumped upon a few bandwagons that had rolled by but any concept of a program for government was completely missing.
If you go back to 2010 the problem was the same. Brown fought a campaign on not being a Tory. He refused to have a spending review or even acknowledge that running the largest deficit in UK history was a problem. He criticised every Tory idea for cuts and had none of his own, on purpose and as a matter of policy.
So you have to go back to the days of Blair to find a Labour party that had anything like a program for government. And much of what he proposed would find little favour with the current Labour party. The internal market, PFI, City Academies, the retention of the Thatcherite rules regulating trade unions and industrial action, the odd privatisation.
What does the current Labour party really want? Does it simply want to be a party of protest and virtue signalling that ignores all of the hard choices a government actually faces? If so, they might as well stay with Corbyn.
If not, what are they proposing? The only idea I have heard so far from Owen Smith was £200bn of public QE. That sounds initially absurd although possibly less so to those who heard Martin Wolf's program on R4 this morning which was a bit woolly but did emphasise the extent of the mess we are in. Surely there has to be more than that though. How do they think they can improve the opportunities and lot of the have nots and the not getting any more for years and years of our society?
Corbyn is utterly useless and Labour made a terrible mistake in electing him. But he is also a symptom rather than the problem and if Owen Smith is going to challenge him in any material way he needs to address the real issue: what is Labour for? I would be genuinely interested in what our more Labour inclined posters had to say in answer to that question.
Superb post. You just don't get this level of insight and analysis anywhere else than pb.com.
I would suggest a compromise by which May undertakes to give the formal notice by a particular date (such as 31.5.17) should allow things to get moving. What is increasingly obvious is that this is a done deal and May, a remainer, has made that clear in Germany. So now it is in everyone's interest to stop moaning and get on with it in a pragmatic way. And I think they will.
Yes, something along those lines would be a good idea, but the problem is the number of counterparties who have to agree to it (plus the various elections coming up, a further complicating factor).
I've been thinking about whether Labour have chosen the better candidate in Jones over Eagle. I was pro-Jones but maybe Eagle with her greater experience and profile would have been the better pick.
Mind you Eagle's launch of her candidacy was poor. Policy-lite and eyrie-fairy.
I can think of at least 3 PLP members that are better than either!
Shame they’ve not bothered to stand this time, - perhaps theses 3 PLP members could be encouraged to stand at the next leadership contest, or the 3rd...
German officials anonymously briefing that the 'no pre-negotiation' stance on A50 will need to be dropped and that the two year negotiation period for exit will need to be extended.
That article seems to hint that some in Europe are starting to think Britain is in a strong position.
They must be unnerved by recent developments ie companies not moving and the world and its wife wanting a trade deal.
It's come within twenty-four hours of May meeting Merkel. Coincidence?
Some of us were arguing before the referendum that our negotiating position is quite strong. Looking at it as "our exports to the EU are 40% of our total vs UK being only 8% of the EU total so we'll hurt more" is simply the wrong analysis. The other way of looking at it is more to the point:
1. Who hurts most if there is no deal and we revert to WTO rules? Clearly the EU, as there is such a trade imbalance, and the UK can ameliorate the cost of tariffs to some extent through the exchange rate, further worsening the trade position of the EU. 2. How can the EU justify giving the UK a worse deal than the new Canadian deal? If we get that and a bit more, we come away with pretty much all we could ask for, while not contributing one cent to the EU budget nor being forced into no controls on freedom of movement. Frankly, we would want some elements of freedom of movement, so that gives us a negotiating chip to cede at the appropriate point.
1. No working government majority 2. Labour summer of Chaos, Tories summer of competence as they set out the principles for Brexit negotiation 3. Last week of September: Corbyn re-elected Leader. Chaotic angry conference 4. First week of October. May sets out platform. Announces intention to seek renewed mandate 5. 10th October. Parliament resumes. A motion “That there shall be an early parliamentary general election.” is tabled as set out in the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Labour MPs have two choices. Acquiesce and risk losing their seats quickly. Or refuse to go to the people and guarantee losing their seats slowly. 6. Motion is carried. Parliament wraps itself up before dissolving 17 working days before polling day, which will be 10th November
10th November sunset times:
Truro 4:42 Birmingham 4:22 Manchester 4:19 London 4:18 Edinburgh 4:13 Lerwick 3:42
Surely not?
They have sun in Lerwick in November? Really? Wow.
Technically yes - although usually hidden by wall-to-wall grey cloud obviously...
Trump is probably a value bet for President purely because so many punters in the UK won't be able to understand why anyone in their right mind would vote for him.
German officials anonymously briefing that the 'no pre-negotiation' stance on A50 will need to be dropped and that the two year negotiation period for exit will need to be extended.
That article seems to hint that some in Europe are starting to think Britain is in a strong position.
They must be unnerved by recent developments ie companies not moving and the world and its wife wanting a trade deal.
It's come within twenty-four hours of May meeting Merkel. Coincidence?
I don't fully understand how Yahoo news works - but it appears to have gone into utter meltdown over Brexit. It's by far the most horrified media outlet I have come across by the outcome four weeks ago, and is running endless scares and lamentations. I'll readily agree that there are downsides and uncertainties about Brexit, but the site appears to being edited by someone who has lost all sense of perspective and balance. I think Yahoo's finance page is quite nicely laid out, and I'm often taken by the contrast between the howls of horror about how the pound is being spanked today because of Brexit fears and the actual numbers down at the bottom which show it to be down 0.08%. Even the sponsored links are in on it - within 36 hours of the result, there was an advert for a lottery claiming that someone 'lost his job in the Brexit layoffs then won big'. So I'm a little surprised that this is reported here.
Trump is probably a value bet for President purely because so many punters in the UK won't be able to understand why anyone in their right mind would vote for him.
I think amongst those punters in the UK were those who were unable to understand why anyone in their right mind would vote for Brexit
I've been thinking about whether Labour have chosen the better candidate in Jones over Eagle. I was pro-Jones but maybe Eagle with her greater experience and profile would have been the better pick.
Mind you Eagle's launch of her candidacy was poor. Policy-lite and eyrie-fairy.
I can think of at least 3 PLP members that are better than either!
Shame they’ve not bothered to stand this time, - perhaps theses 3 PLP members could be encouraged to stand at the next leadership contest, or the 3rd...
Oh indeed for the Labour Party. From my perspective it's great that the heavyweights are frit and the contests are between various atrocious lightweights!!
Mr. Meeks, hope you and your other half are on the up.
He's doing well. Brilliantly so far, actually. But that is, as I am repeatedly told, no guide to future improvements and he has a long long way to go. I'm getting him back recognisably though, and for that I am grateful beyond my power to express in words.
German officials anonymously briefing that the 'no pre-negotiation' stance on A50 will need to be dropped and that the two year negotiation period for exit will need to be extended.
The twentieth century was marked by Germany serially under-estimated British resolve.
Seems maybe they are finally realising they shouldn't make the same mistake in the twenty first....
No, it's German officials being more realistic than those of the EU bureaucracy and of many of the other countries. However, we unfortunately can't negotiate only with Germany. It's an utter shambles, and I think the markets and business are hugely underestimating the scale of the problem.
Yes, I agree. The big problem is that the EU cannot do anything other than play Brexit by the book, such as it is, because the book is what its constituent nations have signed up to. It simply doesn't have the freedom to make ad hoc deals with the UK. This is bad news for us and perhaps, to a lesser extent, them too.
1. No working government majority 2. Labour summer of Chaos, Tories summer of competence as they set out the principles for Brexit negotiation 3. Last week of September: Corbyn re-elected Leader. Chaotic angry conference 4. First week of October. May sets out platform. Announces intention to seek renewed mandate 5. 10th October. Parliament resumes. A motion “That there shall be an early parliamentary general election.” is tabled as set out in the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Labour MPs have two choices. Acquiesce and risk losing their seats quickly. Or refuse to go to the people and guarantee losing their seats slowly. 6. Motion is carried. Parliament wraps itself up before dissolving 17 working days before polling day, which will be 10th November
If polls are indicating Tory leads of circa 10% why would Labour MPs vote for a dissolution likely to cost them their seats?
Quite right. They would, however, lose the right to claim that the new PM did not have a mandate, since she could simply say that she wanted to get one but the opposition were too frightened to let her call an election!
But your analysis is sound, and the point is moot in this case. It's something for a future PM to consider, though.
He's doing well. Brilliantly so far, actually. But that is, as I am repeatedly told, no guide to future improvements and he has a long long way to go. I'm getting him back recognisably though, and for that I am grateful beyond my power to express in words.
Excellent news, let's hope he continues to make progress.
Mr. Meeks, hope you and your other half are on the up.
He's doing well. Brilliantly so far, actually. But that is, as I am repeatedly told, no guide to future improvements and he has a long long way to go. I'm getting him back recognisably though, and for that I am grateful beyond my power to express in words.
That is very good to hear indeed - I am sure that we all hope he continues to recover as he has done so far.
1. No working government majority 2. Labour summer of Chaos, Tories summer of competence as they set out the principles for Brexit negotiation 3. Last week of September: Corbyn re-elected Leader. Chaotic angry conference 4. First week of October. May sets out platform. Announces intention to seek renewed mandate 5. 10th October. Parliament resumes. A motion “That there shall be an early parliamentary general election.” is tabled as set out in the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Labour MPs have two choices. Acquiesce and risk losing their seats quickly. Or refuse to go to the people and guarantee losing their seats slowly. 6. Motion is carried. Parliament wraps itself up before dissolving 17 working days before polling day, which will be 10th November
10th November sunset times:
Truro 4:42 Birmingham 4:22 Manchester 4:19 London 4:18 Edinburgh 4:13 Lerwick 3:42
Surely not?
They have sun in Lerwick in November? Really? Wow.
Technically yes - although usually hidden by wall-to-wall grey cloud obviously...
Is there any reason why Lerwick doesn't rhyme with Berwick?
Lack of legal experience. Not that stopped Gove or Grayling.
Oh so it's one rule for the 2 blokes and a different one for the woman. Textbook definition of sexism. Oaf.
To be fair Charlie Falconer, it is rumoured that both Anna Soubry and Dominic Raab refused to serve under Liz Truss for those exact reasons.
She's also very young in comparison to her predecessors and younger than both Soubry (by a mile) and Raab. Some people have problems with working for youngsters. Ego.
Also known in her constituency as 'The Tory Trollop'!
This from the 'Turnip Taliban' of deepest Norfolk?
People from Norfolk are weird, especially when it comes to sex. Down there sex is a relative thing.
Norfolk down there - you make it sound like Australia -assuming you were talking about Norfolk when you said down there?
Mr. Meeks, hope you and your other half are on the up.
He's doing well. Brilliantly so far, actually. But that is, as I am repeatedly told, no guide to future improvements and he has a long long way to go. I'm getting him back recognisably though, and for that I am grateful beyond my power to express in words.
German officials anonymously briefing that the 'no pre-negotiation' stance on A50 will need to be dropped and that the two year negotiation period for exit will need to be extended.
That article seems to hint that some in Europe are starting to think Britain is in a strong position.
They must be unnerved by recent developments ie companies not moving and the world and its wife wanting a trade deal.
It's come within twenty-four hours of May meeting Merkel. Coincidence?
I don't fully understand how Yahoo news works - but it appears to have gone into utter meltdown over Brexit. It's by far the most horrified media outlet I have come across by the outcome four weeks ago, and is running endless scares and lamentations. I'll readily agree that there are downsides and uncertainties about Brexit, but the site appears to being edited by someone who has lost all sense of perspective and balance. I think Yahoo's finance page is quite nicely laid out, and I'm often taken by the contrast between the howls of horror about how the pound is being spanked today because of Brexit fears and the actual numbers down at the bottom which show it to be down 0.08%. Even the sponsored links are in on it - within 36 hours of the result, there was an advert for a lottery claiming that someone 'lost his job in the Brexit layoffs then won big'. So I'm a little surprised that this is reported here.
The video from CNBC is the important piece. It's a combination of guess-estimate (take it or leave it) combined with initial feedback from UK showrooms.
30% are reporting a decrease in interest for German Autos.
That may be short-lived but if it is true then, as the guy giving the interview says, it's a big deal for the Germans. We buy as many German cars as the Americans and Chinese combined.
1. No working government majority 2. Labour summer of Chaos, Tories summer of competence as they set out the principles for Brexit negotiation 3. Last week of September: Corbyn re-elected Leader. Chaotic angry conference 4. First week of October. May sets out platform. Announces intention to seek renewed mandate 5. 10th October. Parliament resumes. A motion “That there shall be an early parliamentary general election.” is tabled as set out in the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Labour MPs have two choices. Acquiesce and risk losing their seats quickly. Or refuse to go to the people and guarantee losing their seats slowly. 6. Motion is carried. Parliament wraps itself up before dissolving 17 working days before polling day, which will be 10th November
10th November sunset times:
Truro 4:42 Birmingham 4:22 Manchester 4:19 London 4:18 Edinburgh 4:13 Lerwick 3:42
Surely not?
They have sun in Lerwick in November? Really? Wow.
Technically yes - although usually hidden by wall-to-wall grey cloud obviously...
That is my experience. It just never got really light.
Well I don't know how Ted Cruz doing a Gove will impact on the polls.
People may like or not like a Caesar, but they certainly don't like a Brutus.
The reaction from republicans on internet forums has been vehemently abusive towards Cruz so far. But democrats think he is a hero, so the reaction falls pretty much on partisan lines, Cruz being a republican though pretty much guarantees the end of his political career.
Cruz might have thought backstabbing Trump on live TV was going to boost him in the event Trump lost, I can't see republicans forgetting the backstabbing though.
Trump might get sympathy votes in the end simply because Cruz is so appalling, last time Gallup checked Cruz was the only republican running with a negative rating among his own party voters.
Mr. Meeks, hope you and your other half are on the up.
He's doing well. Brilliantly so far, actually. But that is, as I am repeatedly told, no guide to future improvements and he has a long long way to go. I'm getting him back recognisably though, and for that I am grateful beyond my power to express in words.
''Getting Germany on board would be of great help, but the others can still cause problems. ''
Germany should have seen all along that by far their most important partner in this was Britain, and they should have moved mountains to keep Britain on side.
German officials anonymously briefing that the 'no pre-negotiation' stance on A50 will need to be dropped and that the two year negotiation period for exit will need to be extended.
Yeah, I think that it is becoming clearer by the day that this 'no negotiation before Article 50' stance is nonsense and will have be abandoned. This mess is complicated and dangerous enough for all parties as it is, without artificially making it even more unworkable.
It's Article 50 that's the nonsense. Transparently one-sided and written by one of the two parties; it might struggle to be upheld in the ECJ if it came to that.
Mr. Meeks, hope you and your other half are on the up.
He's doing well. Brilliantly so far, actually. But that is, as I am repeatedly told, no guide to future improvements and he has a long long way to go. I'm getting him back recognisably though, and for that I am grateful beyond my power to express in words.
Good news! Fingers crossed that the improvement continues.
Mr. Meeks, hope you and your other half are on the up.
He's doing well. Brilliantly so far, actually. But that is, as I am repeatedly told, no guide to future improvements and he has a long long way to go. I'm getting him back recognisably though, and for that I am grateful beyond my power to express in words.
I've been thinking about whether Labour have chosen the better candidate in Jones over Eagle. I was pro-Jones but maybe Eagle with her greater experience and profile would have been the better pick.
Mind you Eagle's launch of her candidacy was poor. Policy-lite and eyrie-fairy.
Owen Smith?
I think Owen Jones is a more memorable name and more welsh. Owen Smith should change his name quickly.
I see Turkey has suspended the ECHR as part of its state of Emergency. Eurosceptic Heaven.
That said there do seem to be parallels with an attempted communist "coup" in Germany that involved burning down the Reichstag in 1933 and then declaring a state of emergency enabling rule by decree.
I can see a civil war in Turkey the way things are going. Yes turkey joining the EU will be off the agenda but the Turkish refugee crisis likely to follow will be a barrel of laughs and I don't think Uncle Vlad will sit idly by - indeed if the place collapsed into a failed state I'm not sure that the Greeks wouldn't be up for a spot of Enosis.
I would suggest a compromise by which May undertakes to give the formal notice by a particular date (such as 31.5.17) should allow things to get moving. What is increasingly obvious is that this is a done deal and May, a remainer, has made that clear in Germany. So now it is in everyone's interest to stop moaning and get on with it in a pragmatic way. And I think they will.
Yes, something along those lines would be a good idea, but the problem is the number of counterparties who have to agree to it (plus the various elections coming up, a further complicating factor).
Finding someone with the ability to say yes in the negotiations is going to be the hardest part. But that of course is why the EU does not have trade agreements in place with so many of the important parts of the world economy who now want to speak to us. My guess is that we will end up leaving with a framework agreement the details of which continue to be negotiated for several years thereafter.
Mr. Meeks, hope you and your other half are on the up.
He's doing well. Brilliantly so far, actually. But that is, as I am repeatedly told, no guide to future improvements and he has a long long way to go. I'm getting him back recognisably though, and for that I am grateful beyond my power to express in words.
Mr. Meeks, hope you and your other half are on the up.
He's doing well. Brilliantly so far, actually. But that is, as I am repeatedly told, no guide to future improvements and he has a long long way to go. I'm getting him back recognisably though, and for that I am grateful beyond my power to express in words.
Best wishes for as full a recovery as possible from me too.
It's Article 50 that's the nonsense. Transparently one-sided and written by one of the two parties; it might struggle to be upheld in the ECJ if it came to that.
I'm not sure it's one-sided, exactly, it's more that it is impractical for both sides. We may end up with both the UK and the EU27 suffering from an accidental falling onto the WTO route, which neither side will want.
Mr. Meeks, hope you and your other half are on the up.
He's doing well. Brilliantly so far, actually. But that is, as I am repeatedly told, no guide to future improvements and he has a long long way to go. I'm getting him back recognisably though, and for that I am grateful beyond my power to express in words.
Best wishes for as full a recovery as possible from me too.
The references to the glorious era of Ed Miliband earlier on this thread (or possibly the last one, it is hard to keep up these days) shows the problem that Labour faces. One of the many reasons he lost in 2015 was that he had no coherent program or ideas about how the country should be run. He had some vaguely interesting critiques of what was wrong and he jumped upon a few bandwagons that had rolled by but any concept of a program for government was completely missing.
If you go back to 2010 the problem was the same. Brown fought a campaign on not being a Tory. He refused to have a spending review or even acknowledge that running the largest deficit in UK history was a problem. He criticised every Tory idea for cuts and had none of his own, on purpose and as a matter of policy.
So you have to go back to the days of Blair to find a Labour party that had anything like a program for government. And much of what he proposed would find little favour with the current Labour party. The internal market, PFI, City Academies, the retention of the Thatcherite rules regulating trade unions and industrial action, the odd privatisation.
What does the current Labour party really want? Does it simply want to be a party of protest and virtue signalling that ignores all of the hard choices a government actually faces? If so, they might as well stay with Corbyn.
If not, what are they proposing? The only idea I have heard so far from Owen Smith was £200bn of public QE. That sounds initially absurd although possibly less so to those who heard Martin Wolf's program on R4 this morning which was a bit woolly but did emphasise the extent of the mess we are in. Surely there has to be more than that though. How do they think they can improve the opportunities and lot of the have nots and the not getting any more for years and years of our society?
Corbyn is utterly useless and Labour made a terrible mistake in electing him. But he is also a symptom rather than the problem and if Owen Smith is going to challenge him in any material way he needs to address the real issue: what is Labour for? I would be genuinely interested in what our more Labour inclined posters had to say in answer to that question.
Superb post. You just don't get this level of insight and analysis anywhere else than pb.com.
Very kind. Some substantive answers would have been nice though!
Trump is probably a value bet for President purely because so many punters in the UK won't be able to understand why anyone in their right mind would vote for him.
''Getting Germany on board would be of great help, but the others can still cause problems. ''
Germany should have seen all along that by far their most important partner in this was Britain, and they should have moved mountains to keep Britain on side.
German officials anonymously briefing that the 'no pre-negotiation' stance on A50 will need to be dropped and that the two year negotiation period for exit will need to be extended.
Yeah, I think that it is becoming clearer by the day that this 'no negotiation before Article 50' stance is nonsense and will have be abandoned. This mess is complicated and dangerous enough for all parties as it is, without artificially making it even more unworkable.
It's Article 50 that's the nonsense. Transparently one-sided and written by one of the two parties; it might struggle to be upheld in the ECJ if it came to that.
The ECJ is of course the Court of the European Union charged to uphold and protect the treaties. I don't think we should be vesting too many of our hopes there.
1. Who hurts most if there is no deal and we revert to WTO rules? Clearly the EU, as there is such a trade imbalance,
No, for the same reason you just rejected.
We get tariffs on 40% of our stuff, and they get tariffs on 10% of their stuff.
We hurt More than they do
But they can ill afford that 10% and the complete cessation of our EU fees (they would still get most of them if we stay in EEA).
Makes it a useful enough bargaining chip to ensure we get an ETFA/EEA deal involving cash (from us to them) for lack of free movement of low paid EU workers.
Disqualifying EU migrating workers from Benefits until they had been here 5 years unless their home country offered benefits at least 80% of what the UL offers and from NHS unless they pay for it via private insurance or their country of origin offers equivalent benefits, would eliminate those coming here for low paid work, while not affecting those with skills (e.g. nurses) and not impact the likes of Germany and France at all.
He's a Midwesterner. Interesting Owen Jones made a eerily correct prediction about Brexit.
Seems like he knows more about middle England than Labour.
Micheal Moore is from Flint, Michigan. He might be reading the vibes from his hometown in order to be making that prediction.
There are a lot of reports lately of something going on in Michigan with Trump's chances there, and Hillary's lead has been narrowing to about 3-5 points there, but I'm not entirely convinced Michigan is going to go to Trump.
Comments
The fault lies with the likes of Margaret Beckett and other MPs. I single her out because she's been around long enough to remember Militant, yet helped put Corbyn onto the ballot anyway.
But I have no expertise on Mr F's politics to offer.
BREAKING: French prosecutor says Nice truck attacker plotted attack for months, had accomplices.
http://labourlist.org/2016/07/lisa-nandy-brexit-is-final-warning-for-labour/
If you go back to 2010 the problem was the same. Brown fought a campaign on not being a Tory. He refused to have a spending review or even acknowledge that running the largest deficit in UK history was a problem. He criticised every Tory idea for cuts and had none of his own, on purpose and as a matter of policy.
So you have to go back to the days of Blair to find a Labour party that had anything like a program for government. And much of what he proposed would find little favour with the current Labour party. The internal market, PFI, City Academies, the retention of the Thatcherite rules regulating trade unions and industrial action, the odd privatisation.
What does the current Labour party really want? Does it simply want to be a party of protest and virtue signalling that ignores all of the hard choices a government actually faces? If so, they might as well stay with Corbyn.
If not, what are they proposing? The only idea I have heard so far from Owen Smith was £200bn of public QE. That sounds initially absurd although possibly less so to those who heard Martin Wolf's program on R4 this morning which was a bit woolly but did emphasise the extent of the mess we are in. Surely there has to be more than that though. How do they think they can improve the opportunities and lot of the have nots and the not getting any more for years and years of our society?
Corbyn is utterly useless and Labour made a terrible mistake in electing him. But he is also a symptom rather than the problem and if Owen Smith is going to challenge him in any material way he needs to address the real issue: what is Labour for? I would be genuinely interested in what our more Labour inclined posters had to say in answer to that question.
1. No working government majority
2. Labour summer of Chaos, Tories summer of competence as they set out the principles for Brexit negotiation
3. Last week of September: Corbyn re-elected Leader. Chaotic angry conference
4. First week of October. May sets out platform. Announces intention to seek renewed mandate
5. 10th October. Parliament resumes. A motion “That there shall be an early parliamentary general election.” is tabled as set out in the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Labour MPs have two choices. Acquiesce and risk losing their seats quickly. Or refuse to go to the people and guarantee losing their seats slowly.
6. Motion is carried. Parliament wraps itself up before dissolving 17 working days before polling day, which will be 10th November
I return to this thread with news @thetimes' year-on-year print sales are up 34% in Scotland. Opinion writing is what consumers want.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-23183102
http://www.medicinechest.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=452
But the risk of such a scenario is indeed another reason why there will not be an early election.
When you recall Brown in his heyday as shadow CoE, laying into the Tories every day and then look at the state of Labour today, well frankly is is shameful.
Clearly though Labour have to go through this, one way or another.
I think the same when Greens (I have a bit of a bugbear with Greens, though I did read their manifesto - the tables at the back on finances made me feel better, even though it was probably nonsense) talk about a more progressive society. Progressive presumably meaning one where Greens are not laughed at.
That phrase is wrong, however it is read:
- The Establishment hate Cruz - remember that earlier this year not one Republican Senator would yield the floor to him.
- Cruz is not from the Establishment but from that part of the Tea Party which was violently anti-Establishment.
I am really struggling to see Owen Smith and Angela Eagle in that bracket but maybe they will surprise. I want to see where the ideas and overarching philosophy are coming from. Labour seem completely bereft of both at the moment.
Were we to buy the narrative that she says no and that is that, I don't see how that is an argument in her favour, as it apes the inflexibility that is one of Corbyn's least attractive qualities. It's all very well her being firmer than Cameron, but deep down would we really want her to be committed to something she said now for years in advance, with a very fluid situation ahead?
Plus I get real time updates on who the Grim Reaper has collected. Sports updates. And awful puns. Even updates on how the Second Punic Wars are going.
Nah. This place is the dogs.
Truro 4:42
Birmingham 4:22
Manchester 4:19
London 4:18
Edinburgh 4:13
Lerwick 3:42
Surely not?
Of course, you are likely to be much more touchy, when you have six fingers on each hand....
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-germany-insight-idUKKCN1012AN?il=0
German officials anonymously briefing that the 'no pre-negotiation' stance on A50 will need to be dropped and that the two year negotiation period for exit will need to be extended.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/children/11723308/First-cousin-marriages-in-Pakistani-communities-leading-to-appalling-disabilities-among-children.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-23183102
http://www.medicinechest.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=452
Mind you Eagle's launch of her candidacy was poor. Policy-lite and eyrie-fairy.
They must be unnerved by recent developments ie companies not moving and the world and its wife wanting a trade deal.
Spain has called for "urgent" answers after a Royal Navy nuclear submarine collided with a vessel off the coast of Gibraltar.
I saw this earlier today:
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/video/bad-brexit-germany-auto-industry-083100977.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/07/21/_michael_moore_i_think_trump_is_going_to_win.html
If polls are indicating Tory leads of circa 10% why would Labour MPs vote for a dissolution likely to cost them their seats? Frankly I find it far from obvious that refusing to bow to the PM's wishes would guarantee losing their seats at a later date. Theresa May has already provided ample ammunition to justify their opposition anyway!
I don't think she will want to risk being labelled a cynical barefaced liar quite so soon.
On a point of detail , since the FTPA 25 working days are required from Dissolution - no longer 17! That might imply that earliest Polling Day would be November 24th.
Seems maybe they are finally realising they shouldn't make the same mistake in the twenty first....
I also can forgive her for not wanting to roll the dice to gain an extra 14 months. There's no guarantee that the electorate will give her an enormous majority and reasons to suspect that whilst the Labour vote would go down it might not automatically improve the Conservative position. Also I'm of the opinion that it's disadvantageous to fight the inferno when you can wait and deal with the ashes; and sweep up!
https://www.goodwood.com/flagship-events/qatar-goodwood-festival/?utm_source=Telegraph&utm_medium=Banner Ad&utm_content=900x250&utm_campaign=Telegraph QGF 2016
Seems like he knows more about middle England than Labour.
https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/756143594499477505
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/21/turkey-parliament-expected-to-pass-erdogan-emergency-measures
1. Who hurts most if there is no deal and we revert to WTO rules? Clearly the EU, as there is such a trade imbalance, and the UK can ameliorate the cost of tariffs to some extent through the exchange rate, further worsening the trade position of the EU.
2. How can the EU justify giving the UK a worse deal than the new Canadian deal? If we get that and a bit more, we come away with pretty much all we could ask for, while not contributing one cent to the EU budget nor being forced into no controls on freedom of movement. Frankly, we would want some elements of freedom of movement, so that gives us a negotiating chip to cede at the appropriate point.
Not so sure. We are the biggest net contributors and most dynamic economies.
We get tariffs on 40% of our stuff, and they get tariffs on 10% of their stuff.
We hurt More than they do
But your analysis is sound, and the point is moot in this case. It's something for a future PM to consider, though.
30% are reporting a decrease in interest for German Autos.
That may be short-lived but if it is true then, as the guy giving the interview says, it's a big deal for the Germans. We buy as many German cars as the Americans and Chinese combined.
People may like or not like a Caesar, but they certainly don't like a Brutus.
The reaction from republicans on internet forums has been vehemently abusive towards Cruz so far.
But democrats think he is a hero, so the reaction falls pretty much on partisan lines, Cruz being a republican though pretty much guarantees the end of his political career.
Cruz might have thought backstabbing Trump on live TV was going to boost him in the event Trump lost, I can't see republicans forgetting the backstabbing though.
Trump might get sympathy votes in the end simply because Cruz is so appalling, last time Gallup checked Cruz was the only republican running with a negative rating among his own party voters.
Germany should have seen all along that by far their most important partner in this was Britain, and they should have moved mountains to keep Britain on side.
They didn't. That is a huge failure for them.
Fingers crossed that the improvement continues.
That said there do seem to be parallels with an attempted communist "coup" in Germany that involved burning down the Reichstag in 1933 and then declaring a state of emergency enabling rule by decree.
I can see a civil war in Turkey the way things are going. Yes turkey joining the EU will be off the agenda but the Turkish refugee crisis likely to follow will be a barrel of laughs and I don't think Uncle Vlad will sit idly by - indeed if the place collapsed into a failed state I'm not sure that the Greeks wouldn't be up for a spot of Enosis.
Is it Brexit that's driving that though? or the coincidental perception German Autos ain't what they used to be?
Revenge?
Makes it a useful enough bargaining chip to ensure we get an ETFA/EEA deal involving cash (from us to them) for lack of free movement of low paid EU workers.
Disqualifying EU migrating workers from Benefits until they had been here 5 years unless their home country offered benefits at least 80% of what the UL offers and from NHS unless they pay for it via private insurance or their country of origin offers equivalent benefits, would eliminate those coming here for low paid work, while not affecting those with skills (e.g. nurses) and not impact the likes of Germany and France at all.
He might be reading the vibes from his hometown in order to be making that prediction.
There are a lot of reports lately of something going on in Michigan with Trump's chances there, and Hillary's lead has been narrowing to about 3-5 points there, but I'm not entirely convinced Michigan is going to go to Trump.