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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the courts remove Corbyn from the ballot then LAB would
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the courts remove Corbyn from the ballot then LAB would have lost an electoral liability but gained £4.5m
Next Wednesday a court will hear a case brought by a major LAB donor that the NEC was wrong to have allowed Corbyn to be on the ballot without securing the support of 51 MPs and MEPs.
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But doubt it'll happen.
We need a new Bush v Gore.
Seems a bit off saying "£25 for a vote" and then "LOL! No vote. But thanks for the cash".
Anyway, I am going to attempt exercise. Cooler than before, so hopefully I will achieve success rather than confirming mortality.
Imagine the worst possible outcome. Triple it. That will then happen.
It is quite possible that in a few months we will look back at the Corbyn era as the good old days. Much as we now do with Ed Milliband's tenure.
Not sure I understand the logic there. Surely it should either be
The mere fact of the court case and the uncertainty it creates suggests that Corbyn at a betting chance of 76%+ is not value
or
Corbyn at a betting chance of 76%+ is value despite the mere fact of the court case and the uncertainty it creates.
http://election-data.co.uk/by-election-previews
If JC looked unlikely to ge the required nominations in those circumstances it is unlikely other MP's will give him a free ride and I would expect two or three other candidates to show an interest.
Concern within the current leadership that the court might rule against them is probably not good evidence that it might, as most of these people seem to have been fairly mad to begin with, and are currently the victims of a fairly large establishment conspiracy, which they may be assuming is even vaster than it actually is.
I hope.
titters.
A challenger only needs to lodge the challenge, supported by a sufficient number of legitimate nominations, in order to appear on the ballotpaper. He or she can do so at any point in the lead up to conference before the deadline which I assume the NEC places on the process. By contrast, a leader would only know that they needed to act once the challenge was in - if they were indeed required to act. What happens if the challenge were lodged at five minutes to the deadline? It'd be a nonsense.
@MichaelLCrick: Legal sources say Jeremy Corbyn plans to attend in person next Tuesday's High Court hearing over Michael Foster action against Labour NEC
That's 50% more than the total Labour membership.
Obviously what's happening to their party is tragic. Mr Nabavi accurately described it as a parasite eating the host from the inside. And it doesn't do much for good government to have no Opposition.
But the poetic justice is in seeing them hoist by the same petard they used against us for so long - an almost blind questioning of their motives as self-interested i.e. being a F***ING TORY. This othering of people who sincerely disagree with you rarely ends well.
That would be epic.
Why waste the time and effort for what is a forgone conclusion and with rising levels of intimidation and threats of deselection?
Debt rose steadily from 2002 to 2008 at which point in time it took off like a rocket.
From the trough in early 2001 until the time Brown handed over to Darling in 2007 our national debt increased by over £200 billion.
Anyone saying that our national debt did not rise under Gordon Brown as CotE is quite simply wrong, and a flaming idiot of the highest order.
Here are the official figures for anyone who doesn't already known this.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x/pusf
Small Claims Court
https://www.gov.uk/make-court-claim-for-money/overview
Difficult for May to comment on that...
https://next.ft.com/content/a289834a-4f1a-11e6-8172-e39ecd3b86fc
Interestingly, they took £3m on Brexit and ended up with a £400k loss.
Two takeaways for me;
1) £3m was a surprisingly small market share.
2) They took a position on a very liquid market. They weren't bookmaking.
Indeed, one leadership election may not be enough to do that.
It started at around a billion and ended up around 30 billion. And was growing year on year. Totally unexpectedly.
An example of Brown's genius.
Not to mention the time/hassle
I think he added himself as a defendant, to be allowed to present his position.
*If they did, the draw would be 4/1+ in every Premier League match
Court fees are added for those claims, aren't they?
Not sure I follow? Too few people bet on draws?
I remember listening to a program about an oddsetter that almost broke Ladbrokes in the 70s/80s I think... surely £400k is a huge amount for their political side
The only decision a judge might make is that the NEC did not follow the correct process in coming to a decision and should re-hear the arguments and vote on the decision again.
Given that the anti Corbyn group's lawyer was present at the meeting but not the pro Corbyn lawyer, I don't see the judge regarding the process as unfair to the anti Corbyns.
Ladbrokes made 6 figures on the EU referendum - Hills lost £400k. Both are very big numbers in the political betting context, but small fry overall.
Thought she already had!!
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/20/jeremy-corbyn-wins-right-to-be-defendant-in-leadership-court-case
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/21/villagers-parish-councillors-and-retired-ladies-form-human-chain/
That's interesting, you would have thought that oddsetters in major companies would demonstrate some kind of herding mentality (like pollsters sometimes) and thus losses would be similar.
A thread on oddsetting at the big boys would be most interesting.
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/755967178285907968
O O
Who will win the Labour Party leadership contest?
This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Labour Party leader as chosen by a Labour Party leadership contest. Betfair reserves the right to suspend, cancel unmatched bets and turn in-play or re-open this market as and when information becomes available to it. Additional runners may be added upon request.
If a Labour Party leadership contest does not take place in 2016 then all bets will be void.
So it's not impossible that someone than Corbyn/Smith could be the winner in this market, if the court case does require Labour to hold a re-run. It's an outside chance, certainly, but perhaps not as remote as the odds on Watson, Lewis and Nandy indicate. I've invested a speculative £6.
The leader doesn't trust the General Secretary. The members don't trust the PLP or the NEC. The PLP don't trust the leader. Members are divided in that members who've been in more than a year are anti-Corbyn and less than a year pro-Corbyn. A rally last night attended by the Great Leader was told that 172 Labour MPs were "Tory Sleeper Agents" (the trigger word to activate them being "MOMENTUM")
And so this September Corbyn will be re-crowned as Great Leader and then the hate mob really fires up its campaign. You remember that LibDem conference in Sheffield where they had to be protected from residents behind a ring of steel? At this year's Labour conference it will be a similar security set up protecting Labour delegates against the vengeful mob of Labour members outside. Because MPs and their staffers are already being subjected to abuse and death threats and intimidation, but this is branded as "Tory lies" and the evidence ignored
And then the week after our chaotic conference May announces her intention to secure an early general election at the Tory conference. And after winning a 750 seat Tory majority in November, Corbyn announces that with the overwhelming backing of the membership he is carrying on.
So here's what will happen.
There has been a coup. But not the chicken coup by Blairites as alleged. The coup is Momentum. So the solution is simple.
Proscribe Momentum. Rules do not allow for a party within a party which with its own membership structures aims and constitution it is (sort-of, its only partially in the party). Momentum are expelled. The PLP declare Smith their leader in the Commons. He's backed by CLPs and the NEC and party officers. We keep the name and the buildings, and Momentum are ejected to form their own protest party.
Which - when Smith is proposing the very socialist left policies Momentum demand but done in a way thats actually effective and communicable - means Momentum get crushed by Labour at the ballot box. May even help split the anti-Labour protest vote in our "heartland" seats threatened by UKIP.
Its a battle for survival. An Extinction Level Event. A battle fought a century ago - does the Labour movement pursue the parliamentary route, or the revolutionary route? Momentum want revolution.
They will have to go.
He thinks the Lord Chancellor should have some legal background.
Did he say the same about Chris Grayling or Michael Gove?
Police treating incident at RAF Marham, Norfolk, on Wednesday involving serviceman as attempted abduction https://t.co/V99ML6jtWd
Don't like the sound of this
Trump tells NYT he was ready to scrap North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada if he could not negotiate much better terms
Which would create collateral benefits for us, I imagine.
Opinion can of course be changed by the bets taken - though that's as much about who's betting as the stake size.
The firms with the shortest odds on Smith may well take disproportionate money on Corbyn, and vice versa. Though this doesn't always follow: the nature of their customer base (shop vs online; UK vs international) matters too.
I will do a proper piece on this one day.
This is all Blair's fault, when he tried to abolish the position of Lord Chancellor only to find out he needed primary legalisation to do so.
Makes you wonder what they teach on the Oxford jurisprudence degree.
Keep on telling you Oxford is a compete dump.
It wouldn't surprise me if off duty servicemen were routinely armed in a few years time.
I mean, yuk.
Yeah, I remember that reshuffle (like the loser I am)
What are the mechanics to "Proscribe Momentum" within the Labour Party. Is is something that it is beyond the power of the Corbynites to block?
I've come up with an awesome pop music pun for Sunday.
EU can't hurry Leave.
I have an article coming up soon at Total Politics on a similar subject.
Baby don't hurt me
Don't hurt me
No more