I thought the whole genius of ARM was that it is creating the chip design / ideas of the future, rather than getting its hands dirty with the manufacture. They license out their creations already.
Therefore, obviously the IP is incredibly valuable, but is a simple uproot and relocate to China move viable. Will all the genius types that drive ARM living in Cambridge, with contacts with Cambridge Uni etc want to do that? And if not, does that not leave the door open for a new ARM reborn, as they have all the knowledge and expertise?
Outside London, the exchange rate is really not going to be very important.
Prime London is where there is the greatest likelihood of a car crash. And it matters because money flowing into the London property market (both commercial and residential) is one of the things that enables us to run our huge current account deficit.
Got any data that shows that?
Top of the head was that 60% of all purchases over £1m were from overseas, but I'll see if I can find the source.
Outside London, the exchange rate is really not going to be very important.
Prime London is where there is the greatest likelihood of a car crash. And it matters because money flowing into the London property market (both commercial and residential) is one of the things that enables us to run our huge current account deficit.
Won't that be largely self-balancing via a lower exchange rate? Less money coming in from asset sales - pound drops - imports more expensive - trade gap narrows.
I thought the whole genius of ARM was that it is creating the chip design of the future, rather than getting its hands dirty with the manufacture.
Therefore, obviously the IP is incredibly valuable, but is a simply uproot and relocate to China move viable. Will all the genius types that drive ARM living in Cambridge, with contacts with Cambridge Uni etc want to do that? And if not, does that not leave the door open for a new ARM reborn, as they have all the knowledge and expertise?
John Kerry has just come out and said that TTIP will be completed this year!
Here's an intriguing thought. Do the US and Germany want TTIP signed now, with us being on board and therefore helpful, because TTIP wouldn't pass with us not a member of the EU?
This would also suggest that we'd grandfather straight into TTIP upon Brexit.
(However, I suspect this means that the appetite for a custom US-UK deal would be quite limited.)
If TTIP is agreed with the EU, I think a different deal with the US is unlikely. If it isn't, bets are off sufficiently that I think it's in the UK interest to push for a joint TTIP with the EU while still a member.
I thought the whole genius of ARM was that it is creating the chip design of the future, rather than getting its hands dirty with the manufacture.
Therefore, obviously the IP is incredibly valuable, but is a simply uproot and relocate to China move viable. Will all the genius types that drive ARM living in Cambridge, with contacts with Cambridge Uni etc want to do that? And if not, does that not leave the door open for a new ARM reborn, as they have all the knowledge and expertise?
SoftBank is JAPANESE!
Yes I know...but the discussion below was will they sell it on to the Chinese (or have I scanned the thread incorrectly).
I thought the whole genius of ARM was that it is creating the chip design of the future, rather than getting its hands dirty with the manufacture.
Therefore, obviously the IP is incredibly valuable, but is a simply uproot and relocate to China move viable. Will all the genius types that drive ARM living in Cambridge, with contacts with Cambridge Uni etc want to do that? And if not, does that not leave the door open for a new ARM reborn, as they have all the knowledge and expertise?
"Corbyn tells The Guardian today that he will vote against it, adding: "I've been involved in peace transformation all of my life, and I think we've got an opportunity to show leadership in the world." Clive Lewis, shadow defence secretary, and Emily Thornberry, shadow foreign secretary, described the vote as a "contemptible trick" and will abstain.
Dearie me.
Ha ha, a trick my arse. This vote has been postponed so many times, let's just bloody get on with building the new boats. Let's get some more things on the postponed list going too - yes, Heathrow, that means you!
There's a Times article today saying LHR decision could be weeks away. I remain sceptical.
Grr. Come on Theresa, just bloody announce it. Two new runways at LHR and one more at LGW please, preferably with a maglev or Hyperloop running between them
Are we trying to show the World we're open for business, or not?
Any chance she could stop throwing money down a hole, I mean HS2, as well?
HS2 still seems to be alive right now. How long for? I've no feeling for this at all.
Is there anybody willing to stand up and take Osborne's place as the champion of HS2? I suspect it is probably in real trouble.
I thought the whole genius of ARM was that it is creating the chip design of the future, rather than getting its hands dirty with the manufacture.
Therefore, obviously the IP is incredibly valuable, but is a simply uproot and relocate to China move viable. Will all the genius types that drive ARM living in Cambridge, with contacts with Cambridge Uni etc want to do that? And if not, does that not leave the door open for a new ARM reborn, as they have all the knowledge and expertise?
The EU and Juncker have little clout. We had 28 countries all intent on protecting their own interests. Think of the school playground. In discussions, we form gangs.
The Scandinavians and Dutch tend to be in our gang (although they tend to be a little greener than us). The Frogs default position is always against us (unless it absolutely suits them). The Germans tend to be reasonably neutral. The Greeks and Spanish will sign anything and ignore it later. The Italians never turn up as they're off sampling the local vineyards.
The newer countries look after number one and have no pretensions to do otherwise. The most selfish - c'est les Frogs.
Outside London, the exchange rate is really not going to be very important.
Prime London is where there is the greatest likelihood of a car crash. And it matters because money flowing into the London property market (both commercial and residential) is one of the things that enables us to run our huge current account deficit.
Won't that be largely self-balancing via a lower exchange rate? Less money coming in from asset sales - pound drops - imports more expensive - trade gap narrows.
One of the reason that weak Sterling isn't necessarily to our advantage is that our domestic industries are so hollowed out that the scope for import substitution is quite narrow at the moment. It would need a prolonged period of weak Sterling for that to change. IMO $1.40 and €1.25 would have to become the new norm for a change in our industrial output.
Outside London, the exchange rate is really not going to be very important.
Prime London is where there is the greatest likelihood of a car crash. And it matters because money flowing into the London property market (both commercial and residential) is one of the things that enables us to run our huge current account deficit.
Anecdotal evidence from the sandpit - a noticeable effect from overseas property buyers (mainly Arabs, Russians, Africans, Indians) noting that London just got 10% cheaper when buying in dollars. The key will be if they start to think London's overvalued - which it is, surely?
My local Knight Frank keeps sending me "Price Reduction!" emails. Last year, at the peak of the market, a 1,200 square foot three bedroom flat, in the unfashionable Golders Green side of Hampstead (albeit still NW3) went for £2.8m.
I reckon it'd be lucky to get £2m today.
That's mad! In Dubai £2m will get you 3,500sq ft penthouse either in or overlooking the Burj Khalifa, or in the Marina area. We think these are overvalued and due a correction, although it won't be the 50% correction that Dubai got in 2008. Prices here have been steady for a couple of years, around the same values as the pre-crash mania.
I thought the whole genius of ARM was that it is creating the chip design / ideas of the future, rather than getting its hands dirty with the manufacture. They license out their creations already.
Therefore, obviously the IP is incredibly valuable, but is a simple uproot and relocate to China move viable. Will all the genius types that drive ARM living in Cambridge, with contacts with Cambridge Uni etc want to do that? And if not, does that not leave the door open for a new ARM reborn, as they have all the knowledge and expertise?
It would be a process and would begin with lots and lots of Chinese engineers and scientists arriving on the ARM campus in Cambridge. Then ARM would open research facilities in China and so on.
I thought the whole genius of ARM was that it is creating the chip design / ideas of the future, rather than getting its hands dirty with the manufacture. They license out their creations already.
Therefore, obviously the IP is incredibly valuable, but is a simple uproot and relocate to China move viable. Will all the genius types that drive ARM living in Cambridge, with contacts with Cambridge Uni etc want to do that? And if not, does that not leave the door open for a new ARM reborn, as they have all the knowledge and expertise?
It would be a process and would begin with lots and lots of Chinese engineers and scientists arriving on the ARM campus in Cambridge. Then ARM would open research facilities in China and so on.
Again, China doesn't want RISC AIUI. They want to be able to compete with Intel which means they need CISC.
Outside London, the exchange rate is really not going to be very important.
Prime London is where there is the greatest likelihood of a car crash. And it matters because money flowing into the London property market (both commercial and residential) is one of the things that enables us to run our huge current account deficit.
Got any data that shows that?
Top of the head was that 60% of all purchases over £1m were from overseas, but I'll see if I can find the source.
That still wouldn't prove your point. The total net spending would be needed, and then compared with other sources of foreign capital inflow.
I thought the whole genius of ARM was that it is creating the chip design / ideas of the future, rather than getting its hands dirty with the manufacture. They license out their creations already.
Therefore, obviously the IP is incredibly valuable, but is a simple uproot and relocate to China move viable. Will all the genius types that drive ARM living in Cambridge, with contacts with Cambridge Uni etc want to do that? And if not, does that not leave the door open for a new ARM reborn, as they have all the knowledge and expertise?
Quite and Son is buying tomorrow's (possibly more valuable) IP as well as today's
I thought the whole genius of ARM was that it is creating the chip design / ideas of the future, rather than getting its hands dirty with the manufacture. They license out their creations already.
Therefore, obviously the IP is incredibly valuable, but is a simple uproot and relocate to China move viable. Will all the genius types that drive ARM living in Cambridge, with contacts with Cambridge Uni etc want to do that? And if not, does that not leave the door open for a new ARM reborn, as they have all the knowledge and expertise?
It would be a process and would begin with lots and lots of Chinese engineers and scientists arriving on the ARM campus in Cambridge. Then ARM would open research facilities in China and so on.
Good point. That is classic Chinese approach to things, with the philosophy that to perfect a copy is as good as innovating a new product from scratch.
Just remember that China want a CISC competitor, they'd be better off buying AMD which holds one of two global x86 licences and the patents for x86-64. In terms of what China wants to achieve, ARM doesn't make a lot of sense. AMD does, which is why they have been sniffing around there for a while.
AMD's cross-licensing agreement with Intel has clauses for such an eventuality. IIRC Intel can terminate the agreement upon AMD being acquired, so any buyer would need to enter into negotiations with Intel for a new agreement.
John Kerry has just come out and said that TTIP will be completed this year!
Here's an intriguing thought. Do the US and Germany want TTIP signed now, with us being on board and therefore helpful, because TTIP wouldn't pass with us not a member of the EU?
This would also suggest that we'd grandfather straight into TTIP upon Brexit.
(However, I suspect this means that the appetite for a custom US-UK deal would be quite limited.)
As far as anyone can tell, nobody seriously expects TTIP to be ratified any time soon. It's become politically toxic, and it's an election year in France and Germany. Even if it avoids death by a thousand salami slices in the European Parliament, France and Germany will want it place on a burner so far back it falls off the end of the world.
As for the UK, why would we support it now? It's already clear we can get a far better deal by letting TTIP fail and going down the CETA route with the US.
There have been four attacks in France recently - one was unsuccessful (the gunman on the train who was beaten up by those Americans). I suggest the French have every reason to assume that their government and security services are simply not doing their jobs properly. That is the real danger if Le Pen decides to put Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite up against Securite. It could easily prove a winner.
Other than that slight criticism, great post.
The more attacks there are, the more the indigenous French will flock to a modern day Jean d'Arc to save them from the enemy in their midst, who will be looking towards a 1492 solution to solve the problem. There are clearly different possibilities to stop her. A respected conservative native French politician like Juppe would offer the best odds, but he is nearly 71 years old. A socialist, or Sarkozy (with his previous failure in 2012 and part foreign background - 50% Magyar, 25% Turkish-Jewish), will have less chance.
Remind me what happened to Ms d'Arc....?
The French immolated her
A novel interpretation of the nationality of those who had her tried and burnt.
I'm sure if you dug about long enough you'd find some family connection amongst her prosecutors.
The Burgundians?
(A great friend of mine's ancestor didn't set fire to her but they did give the lighted torch to the man who did. My family was still - we think - peasant farmers in Northamptonshire at the time)
Surely your tallest tale yet, Charles. You were once peasants? In the MIDLANDS? Pull the other one....
Well we absolutely know that we were yeoman farmers in Oxfordshire in the early 1600s. Our archivist is investigating a claimed link to Northamptonshire a hundred years earlier. We have other bloodlines going earlier (mainly via the House of Lancaster) but through the female line rather than the primary lineage.
(Of course the Irish side is earlier - we can get that back to the early 1100s)
Prediction is part of this website: trying to establish (the probability of) events in the future is a necessary part of deciding whether a bet is value or not.
Yes, but the corollary of that is that prediction in the real world is so bloody difficult it is almost not worth trying (where are all the punters' Gulfstreams?) So it is entirely legitimate to say, let's wait for data rather than forecasts.
True, but you scratch a sore point for me: PB is bloody awful at prediction, and it really shouldn't be. There are some standouts (RodCrosby springs to mind) but mostly it's people gobbing off on hobby horses (mixed metaphor!) in random directions. I think we can do something useful on terms of a simple binary prediction (will person X win election Y, yes or no?), and it worked for London Mayoral 2016, but I forgot to test that for UK EU 2016, dammit.
Turkey : the post-coup crackdown continues. The modern "Turkish Question" has the potential to cause considerable disruption in international politics.
Turkish officials say that nearly 8,000 police officers have been suspended, reportedly on suspicion of having links to the failed coup attempt at the weekend.
Some 6,000 members of the judiciary and military, including generals, have been detained in connection with the coup.
Outside London, the exchange rate is really not going to be very important.
Prime London is where there is the greatest likelihood of a car crash. And it matters because money flowing into the London property market (both commercial and residential) is one of the things that enables us to run our huge current account deficit.
Won't that be largely self-balancing via a lower exchange rate? Less money coming in from asset sales - pound drops - imports more expensive - trade gap narrows.
The problem we have is that a lot of what we import is not price elastic: how much with oil, coal or natural gas demand change if sterling moves 15%. All are dollar denominated.
John Kerry has just come out and said that TTIP will be completed this year!
Here's an intriguing thought. Do the US and Germany want TTIP signed now, with us being on board and therefore helpful, because TTIP wouldn't pass with us not a member of the EU?
This would also suggest that we'd grandfather straight into TTIP upon Brexit.
(However, I suspect this means that the appetite for a custom US-UK deal would be quite limited.)
As far as anyone can tell, nobody seriously expects TTIP to be ratified any time soon. It's become politically toxic, and it's an election year in France and Germany. Even if it avoids death by a thousand salami slices in the European Parliament, France and Germany will want it place on a burner so far back it falls off the end of the world.
That sounds right from the EU end but from the US end wouldn't you want to do it in a lame-duck congress? It's the kind of thing everyone supports but nobody wants to be seen voting for, so you want the vote to be as far as possible from the next election, with as many people as possible who won't be running again.
Turkey : the post-coup crackdown continues. The modern "Turkish Question" has the potential to cause considerable disruption in international politics.
Turkish officials say that nearly 8,000 police officers have been suspended, reportedly on suspicion of having links to the failed coup attempt at the weekend.
Some 6,000 members of the judiciary and military, including generals, have been detained in connection with the coup.
I thought the whole genius of ARM was that it is creating the chip design / ideas of the future, rather than getting its hands dirty with the manufacture. They license out their creations already.
Therefore, obviously the IP is incredibly valuable, but is a simple uproot and relocate to China move viable. Will all the genius types that drive ARM living in Cambridge, with contacts with Cambridge Uni etc want to do that? And if not, does that not leave the door open for a new ARM reborn, as they have all the knowledge and expertise?
It would be a process and would begin with lots and lots of Chinese engineers and scientists arriving on the ARM campus in Cambridge. Then ARM would open research facilities in China and so on.
Good point. That is classic Chinese approach to things, with the philosophy that to perfect a copy is as good as innovating a new product from scratch.
By which time there will be something better coming out of the West.
Their politics and culture doesn't support innovation as well as ours does.
tbf markets are up around the world, with the latest wall of money about to be unleashed by the Japanese, expectations that interest rates will stay lower for longer given the Brexit vote (with the UK poised to reduce), and the clear statement from the BoI that it will create money to prop everything up if there is any sign of a wobble. It has been the same after previous suggestions of renewed crisis - once the authorities announce they won't let things go down, of course investors jump in for some risk-free money.
The continued predictions of eventual doom from some commentators rest upon the conclusion that at some point the wall-of-money approach will stop working, and we'll have nowhere else to go.
None of this says anything about whether Brexit will be good, bad or indifferent.
QE is financial methadone and the markets are addicted. One day interest rates will have to rise and what happens then ? Or is this the "new normal" with almost zero inflation and interest rates - what's the point in anyone saving ?
Well I guess you save for a rainy day - even without much interest it makes life a lot easier if you have a cash nestegg to fall back on. I'm happy enough with my 1-5% depending on the fund/account, etc. Much preferable to a credit card debt.
Outside London, the exchange rate is really not going to be very important.
Prime London is where there is the greatest likelihood of a car crash. And it matters because money flowing into the London property market (both commercial and residential) is one of the things that enables us to run our huge current account deficit.
Got any data that shows that?
Top of the head was that 60% of all purchases over £1m were from overseas, but I'll see if I can find the source.
That still wouldn't prove your point. The total net spending would be needed, and then compared with other sources of foreign capital inflow.
Surely if you multiply the number of properties sold for more than £1m by the proportion bought with foreign money by (say) £1.5m, then you'd get a pretty accurate (albeit rough) estimate of foreign money coming into the prime UK property market?
I doubt there have been very many sales, simply because the proportion of foreign buyers is much higher than the proportion of foreign owners of property.
I thought the whole genius of ARM was that it is creating the chip design / ideas of the future, rather than getting its hands dirty with the manufacture. They license out their creations already.
Therefore, obviously the IP is incredibly valuable, but is a simple uproot and relocate to China move viable. Will all the genius types that drive ARM living in Cambridge, with contacts with Cambridge Uni etc want to do that? And if not, does that not leave the door open for a new ARM reborn, as they have all the knowledge and expertise?
It's debatable how valuable that IP really is when a dozen or so companies have architectural licenses to design their own CPUs, many of the smartest people working on ARM CPUs don't work for ARM. Ultimately those companies choose to use the ARM instruction set, but they don't necessarily have to do so, if another ISA was a viable alternative they could potentially switch.
Also ARM already has many development centres around the world, the latest Cortex-A73 was designed in France for example, so the idea that ARM is a UK company isn't entirely accurate, ARM is quite a multi-national nowadays. The market for such engineering talent is global. If ARM upped-sticks the engineers would scatter, and there are a lot of US companies that would welcome that talent.
@BBCNormanS: GMB call for Labour to back Trident. "It’s not acceptable to play politics with our members’ livelihoods." - Gen Sec Tim Roache
I know it's his job to be primarily concerned with the livelihood of his members, but in all fairness to Labour, it is their job to take that into consideration but also consider wider factors which may well be more significant in the national interest. Now, that's not to say those not backing Trident would be make the right choice, but it is the job of the MPs to take a deeper view than the unions on this.
Although apparently MPs are supposed to just do what the members tell them thesedays, so where do the general membership fall?
Outside London, the exchange rate is really not going to be very important.
Prime London is where there is the greatest likelihood of a car crash. And it matters because money flowing into the London property market (both commercial and residential) is one of the things that enables us to run our huge current account deficit.
Won't that be largely self-balancing via a lower exchange rate? Less money coming in from asset sales - pound drops - imports more expensive - trade gap narrows.
The problem we have is that a lot of what we import is not price elastic: how much with oil, coal or natural gas demand change if sterling moves 15%. All are dollar denominated.
Only around 20% of UK imports are from SITC 0-4 ie raw materials and food. Quite a bit of that eg food imports from the EU is not dollar denominated.
Well over 60% of UK export earnings (on a value-added basis) are from services. The traditional analysis of these kinds of FX moves has less and less relevance.
John Kerry has just come out and said that TTIP will be completed this year!
Here's an intriguing thought. Do the US and Germany want TTIP signed now, with us being on board and therefore helpful, because TTIP wouldn't pass with us not a member of the EU?
This would also suggest that we'd grandfather straight into TTIP upon Brexit.
(However, I suspect this means that the appetite for a custom US-UK deal would be quite limited.)
As far as anyone can tell, nobody seriously expects TTIP to be ratified any time soon. It's become politically toxic, and it's an election year in France and Germany. Even if it avoids death by a thousand salami slices in the European Parliament, France and Germany will want it place on a burner so far back it falls off the end of the world.
As for the UK, why would we support it now? It's already clear we can get a far better deal by letting TTIP fail and going down the CETA route with the US.
Kerry's just desparate to get it through under Obama, because it's looking like neither of his potential successors are too interested in it - although Hillary will probably oppose it every day during the campaign then sign it the day after taking the Oath.
"Corbyn tells The Guardian today that he will vote against it, adding: "I've been involved in peace transformation all of my life, and I think we've got an opportunity to show leadership in the world." Clive Lewis, shadow defence secretary, and Emily Thornberry, shadow foreign secretary, described the vote as a "contemptible trick" and will abstain.
Dearie me.
Ha ha, a trick my arse. This vote has been postponed so many times, let's just bloody get on with building the new boats. Let's get some more things on the postponed list going too - yes, Heathrow, that means you!
There's a Times article today saying LHR decision could be weeks away. I remain sceptical.
Grr. Come on Theresa, just bloody announce it. Two new runways at LHR and one more at LGW please, preferably with a maglev or Hyperloop running between them
Are we trying to show the World we're open for business, or not?
Any chance she could stop throwing money down a hole, I mean HS2, as well?
HS2 still seems to be alive right now. How long for? I've no feeling for this at all.
Is there anybody willing to stand up and take Osborne's place as the champion of HS2? I suspect it is probably in real trouble.
Grayling (Sec of S at Transport) said he had no plans to stop HS2.
Prediction is part of this website: trying to establish (the probability of) events in the future is a necessary part of deciding whether a bet is value or not.
Yes, but the corollary of that is that prediction in the real world is so bloody difficult it is almost not worth trying (where are all the punters' Gulfstreams?) So it is entirely legitimate to say, let's wait for data rather than forecasts.
True, but you scratch a sore point for me: PB is bloody awful at prediction, and it really shouldn't be. There are some standouts (RodCrosby springs to mind) but mostly it's people gobbing off on hobby horses (mixed metaphor!) in random directions. I think we can do something useful on terms of a simple binary prediction (will person X win election Y, yes or no?), and it worked for London Mayoral 2016, but I forgot to test that for UK EU 2016, dammit.
To be a bit more specific, our individual bias makes us a poor aggregate prediction tank in the medium-long term.
Short term, we're very good indeed (and much better than almost all talking heads on the telly). See last May election night thread to see how quickly it was realised that Tory Maj was pretty likely. Also the Ref night thread to see how quickly we all, I think without exception, called it for Leave soon after a few results came in....
Outside London, the exchange rate is really not going to be very important.
Prime London is where there is the greatest likelihood of a car crash. And it matters because money flowing into the London property market (both commercial and residential) is one of the things that enables us to run our huge current account deficit.
Won't that be largely self-balancing via a lower exchange rate? Less money coming in from asset sales - pound drops - imports more expensive - trade gap narrows.
The problem we have is that a lot of what we import is not price elastic: how much with oil, coal or natural gas demand change if sterling moves 15%. All are dollar denominated.
Only around 20% of UK imports are from SITC 0-4 ie raw materials and food. Quite a bit of that eg food imports from the EU is not dollar denominated.
Well over 60% of UK export earnings (on a value-added basis) are from services. The traditional analysis of these kinds of FX moves has less and less relevance.
Paul Waugh I'm told Jeremy Corbyn will open Trident debate for Labour too later. Expect that to be his real leadership pitch, not PLP hustings.
Official Labour policy is pro-Trident.
So what's he going to say?
The Great Leader is allowed to pick and choose which Labour rules and policies he follows. He always has. His wisdom knows no bounds.
To answer my own question, surely he has three options:
(1) Announce a de facto change in Labour policy on the floor of the house; (2) Note that he disagrees with his own party's policy and attempt to speak only for himself; (3) Say nothing about substance and disagree only with the concept of the vote.
Prediction is part of this website: trying to establish (the probability of) events in the future is a necessary part of deciding whether a bet is value or not.
Yes, but the corollary of that is that prediction in the real world is so bloody difficult it is almost not worth trying (where are all the punters' Gulfstreams?) So it is entirely legitimate to say, let's wait for data rather than forecasts.
True, but you scratch a sore point for me: PB is bloody awful at prediction, and it really shouldn't be. There are some standouts (RodCrosby springs to mind) but mostly it's people gobbing off on hobby horses (mixed metaphor!) in random directions. I think we can do something useful on terms of a simple binary prediction (will person X win election Y, yes or no?), and it worked for London Mayoral 2016, but I forgot to test that for UK EU 2016, dammit.
Prediction about almost anything is just inherently next to impossible, though. As a rule of thumb, anything the bookies will let you bet on is inherently unpredictable, or they couldn't afford to let you bet on it. How often is the Grand National won by the favourite, and how often does, let's say, the Racing Post predict the winner?
There is stacks of good evidence that fund managers who outperform their benchmarks do it by chance rather than skill. I would be interested to see a long-term analysis of IMF predictions versus actual outcomes.
"Corbyn tells The Guardian today that he will vote against it, adding: "I've been involved in peace transformation all of my life, and I think we've got an opportunity to show leadership in the world." Clive Lewis, shadow defence secretary, and Emily Thornberry, shadow foreign secretary, described the vote as a "contemptible trick" and will abstain.
Dearie me.
Ha ha, a trick my arse. This vote has been postponed so many times, let's just bloody get on with building the new boats. Let's get some more things on the postponed list going too - yes, Heathrow, that means you!
There's a Times article today saying LHR decision could be weeks away. I remain sceptical.
Grr. Come on Theresa, just bloody announce it. Two new runways at LHR and one more at LGW please, preferably with a maglev or Hyperloop running between them
Are we trying to show the World we're open for business, or not?
Any chance she could stop throwing money down a hole, I mean HS2, as well?
HS2 still seems to be alive right now. How long for? I've no feeling for this at all.
Is there anybody willing to stand up and take Osborne's place as the champion of HS2? I suspect it is probably in real trouble.
Grayling (Sec of S at Transport) said he had no plans to stop HS2.
Outside London, the exchange rate is really not going to be very important.
Prime London is where there is the greatest likelihood of a car crash. And it matters because money flowing into the London property market (both commercial and residential) is one of the things that enables us to run our huge current account deficit.
Won't that be largely self-balancing via a lower exchange rate? Less money coming in from asset sales - pound drops - imports more expensive - trade gap narrows.
The problem we have is that a lot of what we import is not price elastic: how much with oil, coal or natural gas demand change if sterling moves 15%. All are dollar denominated.
Only around 20% of UK imports are from SITC 0-4 ie raw materials and food. Quite a bit of that eg food imports from the EU is not dollar denominated.
Well over 60% of UK export earnings (on a value-added basis) are from services. The traditional analysis of these kinds of FX moves has less and less relevance.
Outside London, the exchange rate is really not going to be very important.
Prime London is where there is the greatest likelihood of a car crash. And it matters because money flowing into the London property market (both commercial and residential) is one of the things that enables us to run our huge current account deficit.
Anecdotal evidence from the sandpit - a noticeable effect from overseas property buyers (mainly Arabs, Russians, Africans, Indians) noting that London just got 10% cheaper when buying in dollars. The key will be if they start to think London's overvalued - which it is, surely?
My local Knight Frank keeps sending me "Price Reduction!" emails. Last year, at the peak of the market, a 1,200 square foot three bedroom flat, in the unfashionable Golders Green side of Hampstead (albeit still NW3) went for £2.8m.
I reckon it'd be lucky to get £2m today.
That's mad! In Dubai £2m will get you 3,500sq ft penthouse either in or overlooking the Burj Khalifa, or in the Marina area. We think these are overvalued and due a correction, although it won't be the 50% correction that Dubai got in 2008. Prices here have been steady for a couple of years, around the same values as the pre-crash mania.
In the Marches asking prices have oscillated, but selling prices really haven't moved much (I keep looking for opportunities to buy for family). It's roughly £100k per bedroom.
Just remember that China want a CISC competitor, they'd be better off buying AMD which holds one of two global x86 licences and the patents for x86-64. In terms of what China wants to achieve, ARM doesn't make a lot of sense. AMD does, which is why they have been sniffing around there for a while.
AMD's cross-licensing agreement with Intel has clauses for such an eventuality. IIRC Intel can terminate the agreement upon AMD being acquired, so any buyer would need to enter into negotiations with Intel for a new agreement.
Intel would be subject to a thousand and one anti trust investigations the moment AMD are refused the x86 licence. It would also leave Intel pretty much fucked for 64bit computing since AMD hold all of the relevant patents for it.
Prediction is part of this website: trying to establish (the probability of) events in the future is a necessary part of deciding whether a bet is value or not.
Yes, but the corollary of that is that prediction in the real world is so bloody difficult it is almost not worth trying (where are all the punters' Gulfstreams?) So it is entirely legitimate to say, let's wait for data rather than forecasts.
True, but you scratch a sore point for me: PB is bloody awful at prediction, and it really shouldn't be. There are some standouts (RodCrosby springs to mind) but mostly it's people gobbing off on hobby horses (mixed metaphor!) in random directions. I think we can do something useful on terms of a simple binary prediction (will person X win election Y, yes or no?), and it worked for London Mayoral 2016, but I forgot to test that for UK EU 2016, dammit.
Prediction about almost anything is just inherently next to impossible, though. As a rule of thumb, anything the bookies will let you bet on is inherently unpredictable, or they couldn't afford to let you bet on it. How often is the Grand National won by the favourite, and how often does, let's say, the Racing Post predict the winner?
There is stacks of good evidence that fund managers who outperform their benchmarks do it by chance rather than skill. I would be interested to see a long-term analysis of IMF predictions versus actual outcomes.
This is wrong. Predictions about lots of things are possible. What isn't so easy is out-performing everybody else's predictions consistently, but that's not because prediction is impossible, it's because lots of other people can do it as well as you can.
I had a call on Friday night from a business partner. He told me the UK Government is looking to throw money at UK R&D projects. The main problem is there is so little capacity in the UK to properly use the money.
I have spent considerable time sorting out one failed Uni project after another where a group of smart PHDs have wasted years and millions on a nice idea bit with no real focus on commercialisation.
ARM is the kind of company we need to keep going.
R&D has been neglected for far too long and is one of the main reasons for our stagnant productivity along with the inexhaustible supply of cheap labour. It's the reverse of the economics of the Cold War years when the normal supply of economic migrants and cheap labour from eastern Europe was cut off.
Given the UK (well, England) has three of the world's top ten research universities, it seems unlikely that research is being neglected.
Corporate R&D is poor in the UK.
Been destroyed over the past 20 years. Here's how it goes.
UK based company is merged or taken over by another entity headquarted elsewhere. Two R&D centres in Europe Company decides to start research in China. Company decides to keep R&D near headquarters. UK R&D unit closes.
Son hasn't done any of this with previous SoftBank purchases. I don't see why he would start with ARM.
Last month Softbank sold its majority stake in Supercell 2 to Tencent.
What do you think they are raising capital for? Plus, Son is a canny operator, mobile gaming is an easy come, easy go kind of market. Tencent offered to more than double SoftBank's money. I don't see anyone offering £48-£55bn for ARM.
The Chinese really want semiconductor technology self-sufficiency. I think they would very happily pay a very decent premium on top of £24 billion to get their hands on ARM. However, I cannot imagine that the government has not factored that into their assessment of the deal and on any enforceable assurances they have asked for. If ARM does end up in Chinese hands, there is no doubt that it will end up in China.
TaihuLight (#1 supercomputer @ peak 93PF) uses Chinese domestic CPUs, very loosely based on DEC's 21164 |(a RISC design). They've come on in leaps and bounds in recent years.
Paul Waugh I'm told Jeremy Corbyn will open Trident debate for Labour too later. Expect that to be his real leadership pitch, not PLP hustings.
Official Labour policy is pro-Trident.
So what's he going to say?
The Great Leader is allowed to pick and choose which Labour rules and policies he follows. He always has. His wisdom knows no bounds.
To answer my own question, surely he has three options:
(1) Announce a de facto change in Labour policy on the floor of the house; (2) Note that he disagrees with his own party's policy and attempt to speak only for himself; (3) Say nothing about substance and disagree only with the concept of the vote.
Each has difficulties.
I bet he tries to go with (3), saying it's all a stitch up by evil Tories who are trying to destabilise his leadership.
Completely ignoring the facts that they're the government, and the Trident renewal vote has already been but back so often that we're in danger of a gap in capability if we don't start building the new boats soon.
@SamCoatesTimes: Awkward: Philip Hammond, David Davis and Liam Fox must all share grace and favour house, Chevening. Good luck with those negotiations...
@paulwaugh: No10 reveals Boris, Fox and Davis will ALL get to share use of official residence at Chevening. Loudest laugh of entire Lobby briefing.
Outside London, the exchange rate is really not going to be very important.
Prime London is where there is the greatest likelihood of a car crash. And it matters because money flowing into the London property market (both commercial and residential) is one of the things that enables us to run our huge current account deficit.
Got any data that shows that?
Top of the head was that 60% of all purchases over £1m were from overseas, but I'll see if I can find the source.
That still wouldn't prove your point. The total net spending would be needed, and then compared with other sources of foreign capital inflow.
Surely if you multiply the number of properties sold for more than £1m by the proportion bought with foreign money by (say) £1.5m, then you'd get a pretty accurate (albeit rough) estimate of foreign money coming into the prime UK property market?
I doubt there have been very many sales, simply because the proportion of foreign buyers is much higher than the proportion of foreign owners of property.
That would only be a gross estimate as you don't know how many sales and cash outs there might have been.
But even if we skim over that, I doubt you can get to even 10% of the financing of the current account deficit.
Outside London, the exchange rate is really not going to be very important.
Prime London is where there is the greatest likelihood of a car crash. And it matters because money flowing into the London property market (both commercial and residential) is one of the things that enables us to run our huge current account deficit.
Won't that be largely self-balancing via a lower exchange rate? Less money coming in from asset sales - pound drops - imports more expensive - trade gap narrows.
The problem we have is that a lot of what we import is not price elastic: how much with oil, coal or natural gas demand change if sterling moves 15%. All are dollar denominated.
Only around 20% of UK imports are from SITC 0-4 ie raw materials and food. Quite a bit of that eg food imports from the EU is not dollar denominated.
Well over 60% of UK export earnings (on a value-added basis) are from services. The traditional analysis of these kinds of FX moves has less and less relevance.
I'm aware of that thanks. You are missing the point.
So what was the point of saying: "Quite a bit of that eg food imports from the EU is not dollar denominated." when arguing against "The problem we have is that a lot of what we import is not price elastic... ... are dollar denominated."
Prediction is part of this website: trying to establish (the probability of) events in the future is a necessary part of deciding whether a bet is value or not.
Yes, but the corollary of that is that prediction in the real world is so bloody difficult it is almost not worth trying (where are all the punters' Gulfstreams?) So it is entirely legitimate to say, let's wait for data rather than forecasts.
True, but you scratch a sore point for me: PB is bloody awful at prediction, and it really shouldn't be. There are some standouts (RodCrosby springs to mind) but mostly it's people gobbing off on hobby horses (mixed metaphor!) in random directions. I think we can do something useful on terms of a simple binary prediction (will person X win election Y, yes or no?), and it worked for London Mayoral 2016, but I forgot to test that for UK EU 2016, dammit.
To be a bit more specific, our individual bias makes us a poor aggregate prediction tank in the medium-long term.
Short term, we're very good indeed (and much better than almost all talking heads on the telly). See last May election night thread to see how quickly it was realised that Tory Maj was pretty likely. Also the Ref night thread to see how quickly we all, I think without exception, called it for Leave soon after a few results came in....
Fair point, but that's still a forward indicator measured in hours: we predicted LEAVE at about midnight-1am and Betfair didn't cross over til about 2-3am, and closed around 4:30am?. SPIN was absolutely bloody useless, being suspended for many periods. For UK 2015, we spotted a Tory majority at about 2-3am, and it eventuated at about noon.
So I have mixed feeling about this: yes, we are good over short time periods, but can we make money out of this. I'll have to look more closely into a Betfair account.
Just remember that China want a CISC competitor, they'd be better off buying AMD which holds one of two global x86 licences and the patents for x86-64. In terms of what China wants to achieve, ARM doesn't make a lot of sense. AMD does, which is why they have been sniffing around there for a while.
AMD's cross-licensing agreement with Intel has clauses for such an eventuality. IIRC Intel can terminate the agreement upon AMD being acquired, so any buyer would need to enter into negotiations with Intel for a new agreement.
Intel would be subject to a thousand and one anti trust investigations the moment AMD are refused the x86 licence. It would also leave Intel pretty much fucked for 64bit computing since AMD hold all of the relevant patents for it.
Yes, but my point was that if buying AMD got you a full x86 license it would have happened years ago, in reality it is not a simple acquisition. Anyone wanting to buy AMD has to strike a deal with Intel as well.
"Corbyn tells The Guardian today that he will vote against it, adding: "I've been involved in peace transformation all of my life, and I think we've got an opportunity to show leadership in the world." Clive Lewis, shadow defence secretary, and Emily Thornberry, shadow foreign secretary, described the vote as a "contemptible trick" and will abstain.
Dearie me.
Ha ha, a trick my arse. This vote has been postponed so many times, let's just bloody get on with building the new boats. Let's get some more things on the postponed list going too - yes, Heathrow, that means you!
There's a Times article today saying LHR decision could be weeks away. I remain sceptical.
Grr. Come on Theresa, just bloody announce it. Two new runways at LHR and one more at LGW please, preferably with a maglev or Hyperloop running between them
Are we trying to show the World we're open for business, or not?
Any chance she could stop throwing money down a hole, I mean HS2, as well?
HS2 still seems to be alive right now. How long for? I've no feeling for this at all.
Is there anybody willing to stand up and take Osborne's place as the champion of HS2? I suspect it is probably in real trouble.
Grayling (Sec of S at Transport) said he had no plans to stop HS2.
Somewhat ambiguous.
I didn't think it was at all ambiguous. He went on to give a convincing case as to why it needs to be done, and gave every indication that the government will get on with it.
Just in time, based on part of this morning's discussions, the ONS have published a timetable of Brexit-relevant statistics. The first entirely post referendum stats (CPI & PPI) will come on 16th August.
Junker is a fool. How does he propose to enforce this decision? The Commission are absolutely shit scared that we will make Brexit a huge success and show just how unnecessary the EU is. Tusk said the same before that we should not be allowed to profit from Brexit or something along those lines.
Well, we need or at the very least want to negotiate with them. So that does give them some leverage.
But looking at the TTIP (which gives the Americans the small matter of everything they want and gives us very little In return) the EU's negotiators really are pretty hopeless, and Juncker couldn't negotiate his way past a three year old with a water pistol. So their threat to play awkward isn't terribly convincing.
I think trade deals tend to reflect bargaining power. You can always get a deal if you are prepared to concede all the contentious points. The US is a big catch for the EU. They have other deals that are far more favourable to the EU. The one with Korea for example.
We will have to accept being the Korea in some of our future deals. I have no doubt we will be front of the queue for a trade deal with the US, they will email Fox a PDF, no need to make any changes to the terms just sign on dotted line. We could get good deals with former commonwealth countries, as it's much more balanced.
Mr. kle4, "Tonight, David challenges Jean-Claude to a drinking contest, Liam has a sleepover with Adam, and Boris accidentally becomes Foreign Secretary."
Prediction is part of this website: trying to establish (the probability of) events in the future is a necessary part of deciding whether a bet is value or not.
Yes, but the corollary of that is that prediction in the real world is so bloody difficult it is almost not worth trying (where are all the punters' Gulfstreams?) So it is entirely legitimate to say, let's wait for data rather than forecasts.
True, but you scratch a sore point for me: PB is bloody awful at prediction, and it really shouldn't be. There are some standouts (RodCrosby springs to mind) but mostly it's people gobbing off on hobby horses (mixed metaphor!) in random directions. I think we can do something useful on terms of a simple binary prediction (will person X win election Y, yes or no?), and it worked for London Mayoral 2016, but I forgot to test that for UK EU 2016, dammit.
To be a bit more specific, our individual bias makes us a poor aggregate prediction tank in the medium-long term.
Short term, we're very good indeed (and much better than almost all talking heads on the telly). See last May election night thread to see how quickly it was realised that Tory Maj was pretty likely. Also the Ref night thread to see how quickly we all, I think without exception, called it for Leave soon after a few results came in....
Fair point, but that's still a forward indicator measured in hours: we predicted LEAVE at about midnight-1am and Betfair didn't cross over til about 2-3am, and closed around 4:30am?. SPIN was absolutely bloody useless, being suspended for many periods. For UK 2015, we spotted a Tory majority at about 2-3am, and it eventuated at about noon.
So I have mixed feeling about this: yes, we are good over short time periods, but can we make money out of this. I'll have to look more closely into a Betfair account.
This is a site with hundreds of contributors. Most contribute for the politics rather than the betting, and most political activists tend to predict what they want to happen, rather than what will happen.
What should have been plain to anyone in the run up to the Referendum, however, was the huge mismatch between the odds being offered on Leave, and the actual likelihood that Leave would win. The value was always with Leave at every stage.
Just in time, based on part of this morning's discussions, the ONS have published a timetable of Brexit-relevant statistics. The first entirely post referendum stats (CPI & PPI) will come on 16th August.
@SamCoatesTimes: Awkward: Philip Hammond, David Davis and Liam Fox must all share grace and favour house, Chevening. Good luck with those negotiations...
@paulwaugh: No10 reveals Boris, Fox and Davis will ALL get to share use of official residence at Chevening. Loudest laugh of entire Lobby briefing.
Prediction is part of this website: trying to establish (the probability of) events in the future is a necessary part of deciding whether a bet is value or not.
Yes, but the corollary of that is that prediction in the real world is so bloody difficult it is almost not worth trying (where are all the punters' Gulfstreams?) So it is entirely legitimate to say, let's wait for data rather than forecasts.
True, but you scratch a sore point for me: PB is bloody awful at prediction, and it really shouldn't be. There are some standouts (RodCrosby springs to mind) but mostly it's people gobbing off on hobby horses (mixed metaphor!) in random directions. I think we can do something useful on terms of a simple binary prediction (will person X win election Y, yes or no?), and it worked for London Mayoral 2016, but I forgot to test that for UK EU 2016, dammit.
Prediction about almost anything is just inherently next to impossible, though. As a rule of thumb, anything the bookies will let you bet on is inherently unpredictable, or they couldn't afford to let you bet on it. How often is the Grand National won by the favourite, and how often does, let's say, the Racing Post predict the winner?
There is stacks of good evidence that fund managers who outperform their benchmarks do it by chance rather than skill. I would be interested to see a long-term analysis of IMF predictions versus actual outcomes.
On holiday at the moment, and watching UK TV streams rather than the usual syndicated coverage. All the ads for bookmakers on UK TV are really shocking, they're really pushing hard for mug punters, especially in football with dodgy priced accumulators and 'cash out' functionality to take two over-rounds. The cursory 'when the fun stops, stop' messages at the end of the ads almost seem sarcastic.
PB has done very well for most of us in the past few years, with sports bets as well as politics.
@SamCoatesTimes: Awkward: Philip Hammond, David Davis and Liam Fox must all share grace and favour house, Chevening. Good luck with those negotiations...
@paulwaugh: No10 reveals Boris, Fox and Davis will ALL get to share use of official residence at Chevening. Loudest laugh of entire Lobby briefing.
First tweet looks wrong, doesn't the chancellor get use of Dorneywood?
Just remember that China want a CISC competitor, they'd be better off buying AMD which holds one of two global x86 licences and the patents for x86-64. In terms of what China wants to achieve, ARM doesn't make a lot of sense. AMD does, which is why they have been sniffing around there for a while.
AMD's cross-licensing agreement with Intel has clauses for such an eventuality. IIRC Intel can terminate the agreement upon AMD being acquired, so any buyer would need to enter into negotiations with Intel for a new agreement.
Intel would be subject to a thousand and one anti trust investigations the moment AMD are refused the x86 licence. It would also leave Intel pretty much fucked for 64bit computing since AMD hold all of the relevant patents for it.
Yes, but my point was that if buying AMD got you a full x86 license it would have happened years ago, in reality it is not a simple acquisition. Anyone wanting to buy AMD has to strike a deal with Intel as well.
No doubt, but rhe idea that Intel would withdraw the x86 licence is a complete fantasy, not when AMD hold the equally valuable x86-64 patents. That one innovation has secured AMD's future. Bear in mind that the x86 deal was originally just a basic licence, it is now a cross-licence deal which swaps x86 for x86-64 and it allows AMD to sub licence custom x86 chip designs where they were unable to do so before such is the value of the x86-64 patents.
I really don't understand why Juppe is so popular, he makes Hillary Clinton look like a squeaky clean plucky outsider. I think on balance he is the most likely winner, but I've not heard anyone here speak fondly of him so not sure where juppemania comes from. People here (Paris not PB) don't seem to entertain the possibility of a Le Pen victory. The attitude reminds me of pre-Brexit thoughts on Leave winning. Marine Le Pen is charismatic and a better candidate for president personally than Trump is for example, but I think the lingering anti-semitism associations in her party will stop her this time. 2022 MLP nailed on if Juppe wins this time!
"Corbyn tells The Guardian today that he will vote against it, adding: "I've been involved in peace transformation all of my life, and I think we've got an opportunity to show leadership in the world." Clive Lewis, shadow defence secretary, and Emily Thornberry, shadow foreign secretary, described the vote as a "contemptible trick" and will abstain.
Dearie me.
Ha ha, a trick my arse. This vote has been postponed so many times, let's just bloody get on with building the new boats. Let's get some more things on the postponed list going too - yes, Heathrow, that means you!
There's a Times article today saying LHR decision could be weeks away. I remain sceptical.
Grr. Come on Theresa, just bloody announce it. Two new runways at LHR and one more at LGW please, preferably with a maglev or Hyperloop running between them
Are we trying to show the World we're open for business, or not?
Any chance she could stop throwing money down a hole, I mean HS2, as well?
HS2 still seems to be alive right now. How long for? I've no feeling for this at all.
Is there anybody willing to stand up and take Osborne's place as the champion of HS2? I suspect it is probably in real trouble.
Grayling (Sec of S at Transport) said he had no plans to stop HS2.
Somewhat ambiguous.
I didn't think it was at all ambiguous. He went on to give a convincing case as to why it needs to be done, and gave every indication that the government will get on with it.
This changing of the guard would be an ideal time to do something radical about HS2. There are pretty good arguments for scrapping the thing altogether and spending the money on other things instead (particularly connecting up the north of England with itself, rather than trying to make it an outer dormitory of London) but the idea of building HS2 starting from the north and working south intrigued me. I don't know how feasible or advantageous it would be in reality, but I can see why the idea would appeal to many northerners.
What should have been plain to anyone in the run up to the Referendum, however, was the huge mismatch between the odds being offered on Leave, and the actual likelihood that Leave would win. The value was always with Leave at every stage.
Junker is a fool. How does he propose to enforce this decision? The Commission are absolutely shit scared that we will make Brexit a huge success and show just how unnecessary the EU is. Tusk said the same before that we should not be allowed to profit from Brexit or something along those lines.
Well, we need or at the very least want to negotiate with them. So that does give them some leverage.
But looking at the TTIP (which gives the Americans the small matter of everything they want and gives us very little In return) the EU's negotiators really are pretty hopeless, and Juncker couldn't negotiate his way past a three year old with a water pistol. So their threat to play awkward isn't terribly convincing.
I think trade deals tend to reflect bargaining power. You can always get a deal if you are prepared to concede all the contentious points. The US is a big catch for the EU. They have other deals that are far more favourable to the EU. The one with Korea for example.
We will have to accept being the Korea in some of our future deals. I have no doubt we will be front of the queue for a trade deal with the US, they will email Fox a PDF, no need to make any changes to the terms just sign on dotted line. We could get good deals with former commonwealth countries, as it's much more balanced.
As a nation which depends on domestic consumption rather than external demand there really isn't any need to accept unfavourable terms of trade.
Prediction is part of this website: trying to establish (the probability of) events in the future is a necessary part of deciding whether a bet is value or not.
Yes, but the corollary of that is that prediction in the real world is so bloody difficult it is almost not worth trying (where are all the punters' Gulfstreams?) So it is entirely legitimate to say, let's wait for data rather than forecasts.
True, but you scratch a sore point for me: PB is bloody awful at prediction, and it really shouldn't be. There are some standouts (RodCrosby springs to mind) but mostly it's people gobbing off on hobby horses (mixed metaphor!) in random directions. I think we can do something useful on terms of a simple binary prediction (will person X win election Y, yes or no?), and it worked for London Mayoral 2016, but I forgot to test that for UK EU 2016, dammit.
To be a bit more specific, our individual bias makes us a poor aggregate prediction tank in the medium-long term.
Short term, we're very good indeed (and much better than almost all talking heads on the telly). See last May election night thread to see how quickly it was realised that Tory Maj was pretty likely. Also the Ref night thread to see how quickly we all, I think without exception, called it for Leave soon after a few results came in....
Fair point, but that's still a forward indicator measured in hours: we predicted LEAVE at about midnight-1am and Betfair didn't cross over til about 2-3am, and closed around 4:30am?. SPIN was absolutely bloody useless, being suspended for many periods. For UK 2015, we spotted a Tory majority at about 2-3am, and it eventuated at about noon.
So I have mixed feeling about this: yes, we are good over short time periods, but can we make money out of this. I'll have to look more closely into a Betfair account.
This is a site with hundreds of contributors. Most contribute for the politics rather than the betting, and most political activists tend to predict what they want to happen, rather than what will happen.
What should have been plain to anyone in the run up to the Referendum, however, was the huge mismatch between the odds being offered on Leave, and the actual likelihood that Leave would win. The value was always with Leave at every stage.
Mr. kle4, "Tonight, David challenges Jean-Claude to a drinking contest, Liam has a sleepover with Adam, and Boris accidentally becomes Foreign Secretary."
Nostalgic reference back to a parody TV soap programme called 'Soap'.
@SamCoatesTimes: Awkward: Philip Hammond, David Davis and Liam Fox must all share grace and favour house, Chevening. Good luck with those negotiations...
@paulwaugh: No10 reveals Boris, Fox and Davis will ALL get to share use of official residence at Chevening. Loudest laugh of entire Lobby briefing.
First tweet looks wrong, doesn't the chancellor get use of Dorneywood?
Yeah, he meant Boris. Cheveney is the Foreign Sec's residence. Since Brexit and Trade have been given a big chunk of the foreign sec's brief, makes sense they'd also get access to his bunga-bunga pad.
Prediction is part of this website: trying to establish (the probability of) events in the future is a necessary part of deciding whether a bet is value or not.
Yes, but the corollary of that is that prediction in the real world is so bloody difficult it is almost not worth trying (where are all the punters' Gulfstreams?) So it is entirely legitimate to say, let's wait for data rather than forecasts.
True, but you scratch a sore point for me: PB is bloody awful at prediction, and it really shouldn't be. There are some standouts (RodCrosby springs to mind) but mostly it's people gobbing off on hobby horses (mixed metaphor!) in random directions. I think we can do something useful on terms of a simple binary prediction (will person X win election Y, yes or no?), and it worked for London Mayoral 2016, but I forgot to test that for UK EU 2016, dammit.
To be a bit more specific, our individual bias makes us a poor aggregate prediction tank in the medium-long term.
Short term, we're very good indeed (and much better than almost all talking heads on the telly). See last May election night thread to see how quickly it was realised that Tory Maj was pretty likely. Also the Ref night thread to see how quickly we all, I think without exception, called it for Leave soon after a few results came in....
Fair point, but that's still a forward indicator measured in hours: we predicted LEAVE at about midnight-1am and Betfair didn't cross over til about 2-3am, and closed around 4:30am?. SPIN was absolutely bloody useless, being suspended for many periods. For UK 2015, we spotted a Tory majority at about 2-3am, and it eventuated at about noon.
So I have mixed feeling about this: yes, we are good over short time periods, but can we make money out of this. I'll have to look more closely into a Betfair account.
This is a site with hundreds of contributors. Most contribute for the politics rather than the betting, and most political activists tend to predict what they want to happen, rather than what will happen.
What should have been plain to anyone in the run up to the Referendum, however, was the huge mismatch between the odds being offered on Leave, and the actual likelihood that Leave would win. The value was always with Leave at every stage.
Especially, uh-hum, at 15-1 at 10pm as the vote closed.
I still can't believe I didn't wager more at that point....
"Corbyn tells The Guardian today that he will vote against it, adding: "I've been involved in peace transformation all of my life, and I think we've got an opportunity to show leadership in the world." Clive Lewis, shadow defence secretary, and Emily Thornberry, shadow foreign secretary, described the vote as a "contemptible trick" and will abstain.
Dearie me.
Any chance she could stop throwing money down a hole, I mean HS2, as well?
HS2 still seems to be alive right now. How long for? I've no feeling for this at all.
Is there anybody willing to stand up and take Osborne's place as the champion of HS2? I suspect it is probably in real trouble.
Grayling (Sec of S at Transport) said he had no plans to stop HS2.
Somewhat ambiguous.
I didn't think it was at all ambiguous. He went on to give a convincing case as to why it needs to be done, and gave every indication that the government will get on with it.
This changing of the guard would be an ideal time to do something radical about HS2. There are pretty good arguments for scrapping the thing altogether and spending the money on other things instead (particularly connecting up the north of England with itself, rather than trying to make it an outer dormitory of London) but the idea of building HS2 starting from the north and working south intrigued me. I don't know how feasible or advantageous it would be in reality, but I can see why the idea would appeal to many northerners.
Building it across the North first, say from Liverpool>Manchester>Leeds>Newcastle would undoubtedly be a good move. My understanding of the thinking behind starting with the London>Birmingham stretch was that that section is needed urgently to address capacity issues on the WCML, and it's not possible to do both simultaneously because of skills, equipment and materials required. One of the many railway experts on here will no doubt be along shortly with a more comprehensive reply.
Mr. kle4, "Tonight, David challenges Jean-Claude to a drinking contest, Liam has a sleepover with Adam, and Boris accidentally becomes Foreign Secretary."
Nostalgic reference back to a joke TV soap programme called 'Soap'.
@BBCNormanS: GMB call for Labour to back Trident. "It’s not acceptable to play politics with our members’ livelihoods." - Gen Sec Tim Roache
I know it's his job to be primarily concerned with the livelihood of his members, but in all fairness to Labour, it is their job to take that into consideration but also consider wider factors which may well be more significant in the national interest. Now, that's not to say those not backing Trident would be make the right choice, but it is the job of the MPs to take a deeper view than the unions on this.
Although apparently MPs are supposed to just do what the members tell them thesedays, so where do the general membership fall?
"It creates or maintains jobs" is about the worst conceivable argument for building any sort of weapons system. It surprises me when the unions don't even bother sugar-coating this argument with some other reason why, nominally, they might be in favour, even if jobs and the politics thereof is their underlying reason. But they are often remarkably straightforward about it being their members' jobs which matter.
No doubt, but rhe idea that Intel would withdraw the x86 licence is a complete fantasy, not when AMD hold the equally valuable x86-64 patents.
Sure Intel wouldn't withdraw it, but neither would Intel simply hand a knife to a buyer so that they can cut Intel's throat. If buying AMD was such an obviously good idea it would have happened years ago as AMD had been teetering on the brink of failure more or less since Conroe came out.
Prediction is part of this website: trying to establish (the probability of) events in the future is a necessary part of deciding whether a bet is value or not.
Yes, but the corollary of that is that prediction in the real world is so bloody difficult it is almost not worth trying (where are all the punters' Gulfstreams?) So it is entirely legitimate to say, let's wait for data rather than forecasts.
True, but you scratch a sore point for me: PB is bloody awful at prediction, and it really shouldn't be. There are some standouts (RodCrosby springs to mind) but mostly it's people gobbing off on hobby horses (mixed metaphor!) in random directions. I think we can do something useful on terms of a simple binary prediction (will person X win election Y, yes or no?), and it worked for London Mayoral 2016, but I forgot to test that for UK EU 2016, dammit.
To be a bit more specific, our individual bias makes us a poor aggregate prediction tank in the medium-long term.
Short term, we're very good indeed (and much better than almost all talking heads on the telly). See last May election night thread to see how quickly it was realised that Tory Maj was pretty likely. Also the Ref night thread to see how quickly we all, I think without exception, called it for Leave soon after a few results came in....
Fair point, but that's still a forward indicator measured in hours: we predicted LEAVE at about midnight-1am and Betfair didn't cross over til about 2-3am, and closed around 4:30am?. SPIN was absolutely bloody useless, being suspended for many periods. For UK 2015, we spotted a Tory majority at about 2-3am, and it eventuated at about noon.
So I have mixed feeling about this: yes, we are good over short time periods, but can we make money out of this. I'll have to look more closely into a Betfair account.
This is a site with hundreds of contributors. Most contribute for the politics rather than the betting, and most political activists tend to predict what they want to happen, rather than what will happen.
What should have been plain to anyone in the run up to the Referendum, however, was the huge mismatch between the odds being offered on Leave, and the actual likelihood that Leave would win. The value was always with Leave at every stage.
I certaintly didn't believe Leave would win.
But I didn't embarrass myself with self delusion like Andrew Cooper either.
I really don't understand why Juppe is so popular, he makes Hillary Clinton look like a squeaky clean plucky outsider. I think on balance he is the most likely winner, but I've not heard anyone here speak fondly of him so not sure where juppemania comes from. People here (Paris not PB) don't seem to entertain the possibility of a Le Pen victory. The attitude reminds me of pre-Brexit thoughts on Leave winning. Marine Le Pen is charismatic and a better candidate for president personally than Trump is for example, but I think the lingering anti-semitism associations in her party will stop her this time. 2022 MLP nailed on if Juppe wins this time!
Surely the left will always ride in behind the crook rather than the fascist, as it was put in 2002? What gives her an outside chance this year is the centre-right may not return the favour.
I agree re Juppe, though i wonder whether he actually is all that popular (I've not dug into the detail). Is it not more that rather like the Conservatives in Britain at the moment, he's just the least unpopular and with politics being a relative game, that's sufficient for now?
Mr. kle4, "Tonight, David challenges Jean-Claude to a drinking contest, Liam has a sleepover with Adam, and Boris accidentally becomes Foreign Secretary."
Nostalgic reference back to a joke TV soap programme called 'Soap'.
Much loved - much missed.
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSaNWYHmUvI
I bought all the series a few years back and love them all. It's so outrageous and funny. For something pushing 40yrs old - it's still got the magic.
We really do need to get our current account deficit sorted. The article assumes this will be achieved primarily through a falling Pound. Hmmm......maybe.
"Corbyn tells The Guardian today that he will vote against it, adding: "I've been involved in peace transformation all of my life, and I think we've got an opportunity to show leadership in the world." Clive Lewis, shadow defence secretary, and Emily Thornberry, shadow foreign secretary, described the vote as a "contemptible trick" and will abstain.
Dearie me.
Any chance she could stop throwing money down a hole, I mean HS2, as well?
HS2 still seems to be alive right now. How long for? I've no feeling for this at all.
Is there anybody willing to stand up and take Osborne's place as the champion of HS2? I suspect it is probably in real trouble.
Grayling (Sec of S at Transport) said he had no plans to stop HS2.
Somewhat ambiguous.
I didn't think it was at all ambiguous. He went on to give a convincing case as to why it needs to be done, and gave every indication that the government will get on with it.
This changing of the guard would be an ideal time to do something radical about HS2. There are pretty good arguments for scrapping the thing altogether and spending the money on other things instead (particularly connecting up the north of England with itself, rather than trying to make it an outer dormitory of London) but the idea of building HS2 starting from the north and working south intrigued me. I don't know how feasible or advantageous it would be in reality, but I can see why the idea would appeal to many northerners.
Building it across the North first, say from Liverpool>Manchester>Leeds>Newcastle would undoubtedly be a good move. My understanding of the thinking behind starting with the London>Birmingham stretch was that that section is needed urgently to address capacity issues on the WCML, and it's not possible to do both simultaneously because of skills, equipment and materials required. One of the many railway experts on here will no doubt be along shortly with a more comprehensive reply.
Another way to relieve WCML congestion is to build more bloody runways so people can fly.
Prediction is part of this website: trying to establish (the probability of) events in the future is a necessary part of deciding whether a bet is value or not.
Yes, but the corollary of that is that prediction in the real world is so bloody difficult it is almost not worth trying (where are all the punters' Gulfstreams?) So it is entirely legitimate to say, let's wait for data rather than forecasts.
True, but you scratch a sore point for me: PB is bloody awful at prediction, and it really shouldn't be. There are some standouts (RodCrosby springs to mind) but mostly it's people gobbing off on hobby horses (mixed metaphor!) in random directions. I think we can do something useful on terms of a simple binary prediction (will person X win election Y, yes or no?), and it worked for London Mayoral 2016, but I forgot to test that for UK EU 2016, dammit.
To be a bit more specific, our individual bias makes us a poor aggregate prediction tank in the medium-long term.
Short term, we're very good indeed (and much better than almost all talking heads on the telly). See last May election night thread to see how quickly it was realised that Tory Maj was pretty likely. Also the Ref night thread to see how quickly we all, I think without exception, called it for Leave soon after a few results came in....
Fair point, but that's still a forward indicator measured in hours: we predicted LEAVE at about midnight-1am and Betfair didn't cross over til about 2-3am, and closed around 4:30am?. SPIN was absolutely bloody useless, being suspended for many periods. For UK 2015, we spotted a Tory majority at about 2-3am, and it eventuated at about noon.
So I have mixed feeling about this: yes, we are good over short time periods, but can we make money out of this. I'll have to look more closely into a Betfair account.
This is a site with hundreds of contributors. Most contribute for the politics rather than the betting, and most political activists tend to predict what they want to happen, rather than what will happen.
What should have been plain to anyone in the run up to the Referendum, however, was the huge mismatch between the odds being offered on Leave, and the actual likelihood that Leave would win. The value was always with Leave at every stage.
Especially, uh-hum, at 15-1 at 10pm as the vote closed.
I still can't believe I didn't wager more at that point....
Should have put more on at longer odds. The despair of every profitble gambler, everywhere
Comments
Therefore, obviously the IP is incredibly valuable, but is a simple uproot and relocate to China move viable. Will all the genius types that drive ARM living in Cambridge, with contacts with Cambridge Uni etc want to do that? And if not, does that not leave the door open for a new ARM reborn, as they have all the knowledge and expertise?
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/754979923736072192
I'm told Jeremy Corbyn will open Trident debate for Labour too later. Expect that to be his real leadership pitch, not PLP hustings.
The Scandinavians and Dutch tend to be in our gang (although they tend to be a little greener than us). The Frogs default position is always against us (unless it absolutely suits them). The Germans tend to be reasonably neutral. The Greeks and Spanish will sign anything and ignore it later. The Italians never turn up as they're off sampling the local vineyards.
The newer countries look after number one and have no pretensions to do otherwise. The most selfish - c'est les Frogs.
The French Prime Minister was booed as he arrived for a minute's silence for victims of the attack in #Nice #France https://t.co/b3GZCS4wXE
So what's he going to say?
As for the UK, why would we support it now? It's already clear we can get a far better deal by letting TTIP fail and going down the CETA route with the US.
(Of course the Irish side is earlier - we can get that back to the early 1100s)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bh7bYNAHXxw
The modern "Turkish Question" has the potential to cause considerable disruption in international politics.
Turkish officials say that nearly 8,000 police officers have been suspended, reportedly on suspicion of having links to the failed coup attempt at the weekend.
Some 6,000 members of the judiciary and military, including generals, have been detained in connection with the coup.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36824045
Their politics and culture doesn't support innovation as well as ours does.
@BBCNormanS: GMB call for Labour to back Trident. "It’s not acceptable to play politics with our members’ livelihoods." - Gen Sec Tim Roache
I doubt there have been very many sales, simply because the proportion of foreign buyers is much higher than the proportion of foreign owners of property.
Also ARM already has many development centres around the world, the latest Cortex-A73 was designed in France for example, so the idea that ARM is a UK company isn't entirely accurate, ARM is quite a multi-national nowadays. The market for such engineering talent is global. If ARM upped-sticks the engineers would scatter, and there are a lot of US companies that would welcome that talent.
Although apparently MPs are supposed to just do what the members tell them thesedays, so where do the general membership fall?
Well over 60% of UK export earnings (on a value-added basis) are from services. The traditional analysis of these kinds of FX moves has less and less relevance.
Somewhat ambiguous.
Short term, we're very good indeed (and much better than almost all talking heads on the telly). See last May election night thread to see how quickly it was realised that Tory Maj was pretty likely. Also the Ref night thread to see how quickly we all, I think without exception, called it for Leave soon after a few results came in....
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1M
(1) Announce a de facto change in Labour policy on the floor of the house;
(2) Note that he disagrees with his own party's policy and attempt to speak only for himself;
(3) Say nothing about substance and disagree only with the concept of the vote.
Each has difficulties.
There is stacks of good evidence that fund managers who outperform their benchmarks do it by chance rather than skill. I would be interested to see a long-term analysis of IMF predictions versus actual outcomes.
The structure of Europe explained in one venn diagram https://t.co/KQZuvgywKq https://t.co/gEhv5PG7Qi
Completely ignoring the facts that they're the government, and the Trident renewal vote has already been but back so often that we're in danger of a gap in capability if we don't start building the new boats soon.
@paulwaugh: No10 reveals Boris, Fox and Davis will ALL get to share use of official residence at Chevening. Loudest laugh of entire Lobby briefing.
But even if we skim over that, I doubt you can get to even 10% of the financing of the current account deficit.
"Quite a bit of that eg food imports from the EU is not dollar denominated."
when arguing against
"The problem we have is that a lot of what we import is not price elastic... ... are dollar denominated."
So I have mixed feeling about this: yes, we are good over short time periods, but can we make money out of this. I'll have to look more closely into a Betfair account.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/economicreview/july2016#annex-a
and the little one said,
"Roll over, roll over"
So they all rolled over and one fell out.
What should have been plain to anyone in the run up to the Referendum, however, was the huge mismatch between the odds being offered on Leave, and the actual likelihood that Leave would win. The value was always with Leave at every stage.
PB has done very well for most of us in the past few years, with sports bets as well as politics.
Countries which have had successful and failed coups since 2000 #map #maps https://t.co/D7OKL5KkgC
Q1 - what actual legal proceedings have been commenced?
What should have been plain to anyone in the run up to the Referendum, however, was the huge mismatch between the odds being offered on Leave, and the actual likelihood that Leave would win. The value was always with Leave at every stage.
--------------------------------------------------------------
The PB commentariat was too busy sneering to tell you that.
Much loved - much missed.
Boris = Vyvyan
Davis = Rick
Fox = Neil
Who'll be the boring one everyone forgets, Werrity?
I still can't believe I didn't wager more at that point....
If so there's no reason he shouldn't be invited to Cheveney for a sleepover.
But I didn't embarrass myself with self delusion like Andrew Cooper either.
I agree re Juppe, though i wonder whether he actually is all that popular (I've not dug into the detail). Is it not more that rather like the Conservatives in Britain at the moment, he's just the least unpopular and with politics being a relative game, that's sufficient for now?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-17/credit-ponzi-dead-brexit-or-not-pound-will-crash
We really do need to get our current account deficit sorted. The article assumes this will be achieved primarily through a falling Pound. Hmmm......maybe.
Blair was a Vicar.
Carry on Matron?