Theresa must be just a little tempted by an election, 10 points ahead and with the opposition in chaos and denial. She won't go for it, but the thought must have crossed her mind in the last few days.
She should. 4 years is a long time for things to go wrong. Labour won't always be in such a mess and even if they are a new party has the potential to harvest a lot of centre leaning votes.. If Brexit related cracks start to appear in the economy the Tories will carry the can, the negotiations are likely to cause some problems within the party at some point, either scenario means losing votes to either Ukip or the Libs and definitely to any new party with a charismatic leader.
Current lots of uncertain voters will hold their noses and vote blue, May can't be accused of opportunism when Labour and the Libs have both called for an election and crucially an increased majority makes it so much easier to deal with the awkward squads from left or right.
It was a few weeks back. The police officer was attacked and killed as he came home. The killer then held his wife (herself a police officer) and three year old child hostage and live streamed this on Facebook. After a bit he killed the wife and was then killed by the police. One orphaned child saw this all. It was just outside Paris.
No wonder morale within the French police is said to be low. Incidentally, on my recent quick visit through Paris I saw groups of soldiers patrolling the streets and metro. I've never seen this before, even when Algerian terrorists were blowing people up on the streets of Paris in the 1980's. What have we come to when a major civilised country is forced to do this?
One final point: the Nice killer moved to France in 2005. He had no skills. Why was he let in? What conceivable reason could there have been for permitting the immigration of a no-skilled person from North Africa? In all the talk about Schengen and the radicalisation of 2nd/3rd generation immigrants it is often forgotten that countries might do well not to permit continued immigration of people who bring no apparent discernible benefit to the host country (and may well bring certain disadvantages).
Western policy towards Islamism has toughened up a little bit in recent years (for example, in the UK with counter extremism in schools and now shunning the Muslim brotherhood) but that might not be enough.
In the future, I can see Western governments moving (probably quite controversially, but commanding majority support) to become actively culturally interventionist.
That might mean forcibly closing radical mosques, schools, ensuring children attend mixed faith schools, restricting family immigration and being much firmer on deporting preachers and terrorist sympathisers.
Frankly, as I said after the Charlie Hebdo killings, we ought to be doing most of those things already and other steps besides. There are specific historical issues France has with its North African population and the larger it is the harder it is to deal with the radical currents which take hold. One reason for not increasing it any further, I would have thought. But then we have Merkel unilaterally inviting all and sundry from the same violence ridden region. And the same politicians uttering platitudes when atrocities happen. It's as if politicians are simply not willing to accept that (a) the mass migration of Muslims into Europe in the last decades may not have been an unalloyed success; and (b) it may not be sensible to continue with more now.
Mr. Max, anyone who bought at the end of the second day after the vote must've made a packet.
Of course, predicting a trough's end is not an easy task.
The FTSE 100 is up 750 points from the recent trough, that's about 12.5%.
Ironically the weaker pound helps the top 100 companies, as they book most of their revenue in other currencies. The all share index is also up, close to a 52-week high.
There have been four attacks in France recently - one was unsuccessful (the gunman on the train who was beaten up by those Americans). I suggest the French have every reason to assume that their government and security services are simply not doing their jobs properly. That is the real danger if Le Pen decides to put Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite up against Securite. It could easily prove a winner.
Other than that slight criticism, great post.
The more attacks there are, the more the indigenous French will flock to a modern day Jean d'Arc to save them from the enemy in their midst, who will be looking towards a 1492 solution to solve the problem. There are clearly different possibilities to stop her. A respected conservative native French politician like Juppe would offer the best odds, but he is nearly 71 years old. A socialist, or Sarkozy (with his previous failure in 2012 and part foreign background - 50% Magyar, 25% Turkish-Jewish), will have less chance.
Remind me what happened to Ms d'Arc....?
The French immolated her
A novel interpretation of the nationality of those who had her tried and burnt.
I'm sure if you dug about long enough you'd find some family connection amongst her prosecutors.
The Burgundians?
(A great friend of mine's ancestor didn't set fire to her but they did give the lighted torch to the man who did. My family was still - we think - peasant farmers in Northamptonshire at the time)
Ha! I swear you could say anything on here and we'd believe you. What a great tale nevertheless.
Cyclefree: "No wonder morale within the French police is said to be low. Incidentally, on my recent quick visit through Paris I saw groups of soldiers patrolling the streets and metro. I've never seen this before, even when Algerian terrorists were blowing people up on the streets of Paris in the 1980's. What have we come to when a major civilised country is forced to do this?"
Surely it's long been common practice, especially in London, for heavily armed police to protect sensitive areas including The Central Criminal Court, Downing Street, the Houses of Parliament, the U.S. Embassy, Heathrow, etc., etc?
But not army soldiers just patrolling the streets. That's what struck me.
Thank you for another great column Mr Herdson. The FN's day might come, but not in 2017, then.
On ARM, I have no idea whether its a good thing (FDI) or a bad thing (ARM relocates out of UK, or main activities move abroad). However, it's a handy example of the level of FDI in this country.
Apparently we're #3 in the world behind the US and China in terms of FDI stocks. About a third of all European FDI comes to the UK - a total of £44 billion in 2014.
One of the questions we're going to answer with Brexit is how much of that investment is based on our membership of the Single Market.
It was a few weeks back. The police officer was attacked and killed as he came home. The killer then held his wife (herself a police officer) and three year old child hostage and live streamed this on Facebook. After a bit he killed the wife and was then killed by the police. One orphaned child saw this all. It was just outside Paris.
No wonder morale within the French police is said to be low. Incidentally, on my recent quick visit through Paris I saw groups of soldiers patrolling the streets and metro. I've never seen this before, even when Algerian terrorists were blowing people up on the streets of Paris in the 1980's. What have we come to when a major civilised country is forced to do this?
One final point: the Nice killer moved to France in 2005. He had no skills. Why was he let in? What conceivable reason could there have been for permitting the immigration of a no-skilled person from North Africa? In all the talk about Schengen and the radicalisation of 2nd/3rd generation immigrants it is often forgotten that countries might do well not to permit continued immigration of people who bring no apparent discernible benefit to the host country (and may well bring certain disadvantages).
Western policy towards Islamism has toughened up a little bit in recent years (for example, in the UK with counter extremism in schools and now shunning the Muslim brotherhood) but that might not be enough.
In the future, I can see Western governments moving (probably quite controversially, but commanding majority support) to become actively culturally interventionist.
That might mean forcibly closing radical mosques, schools, ensuring children attend mixed faith schools, restricting family immigration and being much firmer on deporting preachers and terrorist sympathisers.
Frankly, as I said after the Charlie Hebdo killings, we ought to be doing most of those things already and other steps besides. There are specific historical issues France has with its North African population and the larger it is the harder it is to deal with the radical currents which take hold. One reason for not increasing it any further, I would have thought. But then we have Merkel unilaterally inviting all and sundry from the same violence ridden region. And the same politicians uttering platitudes when atrocities happen. It's as if politicians are simply not willing to accept that (a) the mass migration of Muslims into Europe in the last decades may not have been an unalloyed success; and (b) it may not be sensible to continue with more now.
It's a fairly mobile workforce. We'd certainly move away from the area - reluctantly - if Mrs J's work meant she had to. Although we did turn down an opportunity to move to Switzerland a few years ago.
ARM is one of the hubs that makes the Cambridge tech sector. Remove it (or downgrade its importance), and it becomes less of a hub.
Do you know anything about the demographics of the ARM workforce? From what little I know of the company they are very highly skilled but would have a limited number of potential employers. Are they people who would want to relocate to Asia for example? Also, given they're an IP company and the value is their people, what would stop a competitor company forming to employ those who didn't want to relocate with ARM?
I know a fair few of the ARM workforce. Although most are at junior level, I've worked with two of the original chip developers in the past (though they were at God-level and I was a Pleb). Sophie in particular is an interesting character and an utter genius (though she's never worked for ARM itself).
As I said below, the people are not quite as important as they would be in a different IP company. Because they licence their IP at a low level, there are plenty of people who know the ins and outs of the designs and IP.
As for another company taking over the staff: ARM's brilliance is in its positioning as an independent chip designer. This means Apple knows it can deal with it under the same fair terms as Samsung, and vice versa. If it was (say) owned by Intel, that would not be the case: they would always be worried that Intel might squeeze them. Then there is the deep knowledge of ARM in the tech world.
People have tried to produce new chip designs to beat ARM, but they've not succeeded yet, partly because of the factors mentioned above. t'd be hard for a new start company to do so.
There have been four attacks in France recently - one was unsuccessful (the gunman on the train who was beaten up by those Americans). I suggest the French have every reason to assume that their government and security services are simply not doing their jobs properly. That is the real danger if Le Pen decides to put Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite up against Securite. It could easily prove a winner.
Other than that slight criticism, great post.
And the police chief/his girlfriend who were beheaded on video and uploaded to Facebook.
I hadn't heard about that one! When was it?
It was a few weeks back. The police officer was attacked and killed as he came home. The killer then held his wife (herself a police officer) and three year old child hostage and live streamed this on Facebook. After a bit he killed the wife and was then killed by the police. One orphaned child saw this all. It was just outside Paris.
No wonder morale within the French police is said to be low. Incidentally, on my recent quick visit through Paris I saw groups of soldiers patrolling the streets and metro. I've never seen this before, even when Algerian terrorists were blowing people up on the streets of Paris in the 1980's. What have we come to when a major civilised country is forced to do this?
One final point: the Nice killer moved to France in 2005. He had no skills. Why was he let in? What conceivable reason could there have been for permitting the immigration of a no-skilled person from North Africa? In all the talk about Schengen and the radicalisation of 2nd/3rd generation immigrants it is often forgotten that countries might do well not to permit continued immigration of people who bring no apparent discernible benefit to the host country (and may well bring certain disadvantages).
The more attacks there are, the more likely it is for Marine Le Pen to win in 2017 and initiate punitive measures against residents of France (Muslims/Jews, mainly of North African origin) who hold views that are alien to European Christian values.
Cyclefree: "No wonder morale within the French police is said to be low. Incidentally, on my recent quick visit through Paris I saw groups of soldiers patrolling the streets and metro. I've never seen this before, even when Algerian terrorists were blowing people up on the streets of Paris in the 1980's. What have we come to when a major civilised country is forced to do this?"
Surely it's long been common practice, especially in London, for heavily armed police to protect sensitive areas including The Central Criminal Court, Downing Street, the Houses of Parliament, the U.S. Embassy, Heathrow, etc., etc?
There was a plea from Hollande yesterday for more to sign up as reservists - they've got 12000 at the mo and desperate for more.
There have been four attacks in France recently - one was unsuccessful (the gunman on the train who was beaten up by those Americans). I suggest the French have every reason to assume that their government and security services are simply not doing their jobs properly. That is the real danger if Le Pen decides to put Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite up against Securite. It could easily prove a winner.
Other than that slight criticism, great post.
The more attacks there are, the more the indigenous French will flock to a modern day Jean d'Arc to save them from the enemy in their midst, who will be looking towards a 1492 solution to solve the problem. There are clearly different possibilities to stop her. A respected conservative native French politician like Juppe would offer the best odds, but he is nearly 71 years old. A socialist, or Sarkozy (with his previous failure in 2012 and part foreign background - 50% Magyar, 25% Turkish-Jewish), will have less chance.
Remind me what happened to Ms d'Arc....?
The French immolated her
A novel interpretation of the nationality of those who had her tried and burnt.
I'm sure if you dug about long enough you'd find some family connection amongst her prosecutors.
The Burgundians?
(A great friend of mine's ancestor didn't set fire to her but they did give the lighted torch to the man who did. My family was still - we think - peasant farmers in Northamptonshire at the time)
Ha! I swear you could say anything on here and we'd believe you. What a great tale nevertheless.
Indeed so - didn't Charles also tell us that he had a cousin who married a Prince/Princess (can't remember which)?
That's not quite true. Because they licence their IP for others to alter, there are plenty of people around the world with deep-down knowledge of ARM's IP, from Apple to Qualcomm.
Exactly the most advanced ARM microprocessors are designed in the US by Qualcomm, Broadcom, Apple, Nvidia, AMD, and Samsung (in Austin). Fujitsu is having a shot too. Few of those actually need to be ARM processors, they could use something else, maybe even something proprietary in the case of Apple.
ARM's value relies just as much on the business model of treating all customers as equals as it does on the IP itself, which in the case of the biggest players is not as important as it was now that they are developing custom micro-architecture. SoftBank would be well advised to let ARM keep on doing what it does.
Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.
Seems like a good opening negotiating position from his point of view. Get used it.
Not really. It will be ignored and he will lose credibility.
PB Brexitory thinks Juncker has credibility to lose? Wow.
That's what I was thinking as well.
Well at least you must be very relieved you both voted out.
Tattoos are a form of 'defacing' yourselves and beards are terrible, apparently. My god - I hope I'm not as miserable as some of you guys when I get old! I don't have any tattoos and am fairly neutral on the subject of beards. But how others choose to dress isn't really of my concern. And I don't know why it would concern others that much either.
There have been four attacks in France recently - one was unsuccessful (the gunman on the train who was beaten up by those Americans). I suggest the French have every reason to assume that their government and security services are simply not doing their jobs properly. That is the real danger if Le Pen decides to put Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite up against Securite. It could easily prove a winner.
Other than that slight criticism, great post.
The more attacks there are, the more the indigenous French will flock to a modern day Jean d'Arc to save them from the enemy in their midst, who will be looking towards a 1492 solution to solve the problem. There are clearly different possibilities to stop her. A respected conservative native French politician like Juppe would offer the best odds, but he is nearly 71 years old. A socialist, or Sarkozy (with his previous failure in 2012 and part foreign background - 50% Magyar, 25% Turkish-Jewish), will have less chance.
Remind me what happened to Ms d'Arc....?
The French immolated her
A novel interpretation of the nationality of those who had her tried and burnt.
I'm sure if you dug about long enough you'd find some family connection amongst her prosecutors.
The Burgundians?
(A great friend of mine's ancestor didn't set fire to her but they did give the lighted torch to the man who did. My family was still - we think - peasant farmers in Northamptonshire at the time)
Ha! I swear you could say anything on here and we'd believe you. What a great tale nevertheless.
Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.
Seems like a good opening negotiating position from his point of view. Get used it.
Not really. It will be ignored and he will lose credibility.
PB Brexitory thinks Juncker has credibility to lose? Wow.
That's what I was thinking as well.
Well at least you must be very relieved you both voted out.
I don't even see the problem tbh. ARM shareholders are getting a huge premium and SoftBank are a decent owner of foreign companies. Japanese companies all tend to have long term plans to protect and grow their investments. I'd much rather SoftBank than Intel.
SoftBank doesn't have any obvious conflicting interests but I do wonder why they want ARM and about the premium.
Ms. Apocalypse, it's just a matter of opinion. People not being fond of tattoos is no different to people really liking them. Nobody's arguing they should be banned or made a criminal offence.
It's a fairly mobile workforce. We'd certainly move away from the area - reluctantly - if Mrs J's work meant she had to. Although we did turn down an opportunity to move to Switzerland a few years ago.
ARM is one of the hubs that makes the Cambridge tech sector. Remove it (or downgrade its importance), and it becomes less of a hub.
Do you know anything about the demographics of the ARM workforce? From what little I know of the company they are very highly skilled but would have a limited number of potential employers. Are they people who would want to relocate to Asia for example? Also, given they're an IP company and the value is their people, what would stop a competitor company forming to employ those who didn't want to relocate with ARM?
I know a fair few of the ARM workforce. Although most are at junior level, I've worked with two of the original chip developers in the past (though they were at God-level and I was a Pleb). Sophie in particular is an interesting character and an utter genius (though she's never worked for ARM itself).
As I said below, the people are not quite as important as they would be in a different IP company. Because they licence their IP at a low level, there are plenty of people who know the ins and outs of the designs and IP.
As for another company taking over the staff: ARM's brilliance is in its positioning as an independent chip designer. This means Apple knows it can deal with it under the same fair terms as Samsung, and vice versa. If it was (say) owned by Intel, that would not be the case: they would always be worried that Intel might squeeze them. Then there is the deep knowledge of ARM in the tech world.
People have tried to produce new chip designs to beat ARM, but they've not succeeded yet, partly because of the factors mentioned above. t'd be hard for a new start company to do so.
Thanks for that reply
Interesting that you mention their independence as a big selling point, until you said that I'd have thought they'd be a good target for Apple and their huge pile of cash.
Tattoos are a form of 'defacing' yourselves and beards are terrible, apparently. My god - I hope I'm not as miserable as some of you guys when I get old! I don't have any tattoos and am fairly neutral on the subject of beards. But how others choose to dress isn't really of my concern. And I don't know why it would concern others that much either.
Isn't it a bit early for being so humourless? We're having a bit of banter. I detest stubble. It looks scruffy or grubby 99% of the time - and gives me a red chin if I kiss someone with it
There have been four attacks in France recently - one was unsuccessful (the gunman on the train who was beaten up by those Americans). I suggest the French have every reason to assume that their government and security services are simply not doing their jobs properly. That is the real danger if Le Pen decides to put Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite up against Securite. It could easily prove a winner.
Other than that slight criticism, great post.
The more attacks there are, the more the indigenous French will flock to a modern day Jean d'Arc to save them from the enemy in their midst, who will be looking towards a 1492 solution to solve the problem. There are clearly different possibilities to stop her. A respected conservative native French politician like Juppe would offer the best odds, but he is nearly 71 years old. A socialist, or Sarkozy (with his previous failure in 2012 and part foreign background - 50% Magyar, 25% Turkish-Jewish), will have less chance.
Remind me what happened to Ms d'Arc....?
The French immolated her
A novel interpretation of the nationality of those who had her tried and burnt.
I'm sure if you dug about long enough you'd find some family connection amongst her prosecutors.
The Burgundians?
(A great friend of mine's ancestor didn't set fire to her but they did give the lighted torch to the man who did. My family was still - we think - peasant farmers in Northamptonshire at the time)
Ha! I swear you could say anything on here and we'd believe you. What a great tale nevertheless.
Indeed so - didn't Charles also tell us that he had a cousin who married a Prince/Princess (can't remember which)?
Marie Severine de Caramon Chimay in the current generation. My 2nd cousin and close friend.
Your recollection was to our honorific title of the Princess of Connemara
The big worry is the amount of debt SoftBank will be carrying...
~$110bn and rising! ~$4bn in interest per year too. One of the most highly geared companies in the world.
I agree this looks like a bubble acquisition. There is no real commercial logic. The danger is that one of the most R&D intensive UK companies gets squeezed to fund Japanese debt repayments.
Tattoos are a form of 'defacing' yourselves and beards are terrible, apparently. My god - I hope I'm not as miserable as some of you guys when I get old! I don't have any tattoos and am fairly neutral on the subject of beards. But how others choose to dress isn't really of my concern. And I don't know why it would concern others that much either.
Don't think there are many miserable people on here. However, this is PB. Ever watchful. Ever judging. Often completely wrong (apart from a sizeable contingent of PB tories noted for their infallibility).
There have been four attacks in France recently - one was unsuccessful (the gunman on the train who was beaten up by those Americans). I suggest the French have every reason to assume that their government and security services are simply not doing their jobs properly. That is the real danger if Le Pen decides to put Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite up against Securite. It could easily prove a winner.
Other than that slight criticism, great post.
The more attacks there are, the more the indigenous French will flock to a modern day Jean d'Arc to save them from the enemy in their midst, who will be looking towards a 1492 solution to solve the problem. There are clearly different possibilities to stop her. A respected conservative native French politician like Juppe would offer the best odds, but he is nearly 71 years old. A socialist, or Sarkozy (with his previous failure in 2012 and part foreign background - 50% Magyar, 25% Turkish-Jewish), will have less chance.
Remind me what happened to Ms d'Arc....?
The French immolated her
A novel interpretation of the nationality of those who had her tried and burnt.
I'm sure if you dug about long enough you'd find some family connection amongst her prosecutors.
The Burgundians?
(A great friend of mine's ancestor didn't set fire to her but they did give the lighted torch to the man who did. My family was still - we think - peasant farmers in Northamptonshire at the time)
Ha! I swear you could say anything on here and we'd believe you. What a great tale nevertheless.
Indeed so - didn't Charles also tell us that he had a cousin who married a Prince/Princess (can't remember which)?
Marie Severine de Caramon Chimay in the current generation. My 2nd cousin and close friend.
Your recollection was to our honorific title of the Princess of Connemara
I don't even see the problem tbh. ARM shareholders are getting a huge premium and SoftBank are a decent owner of foreign companies. Japanese companies all tend to have long term plans to protect and grow their investments. I'd much rather SoftBank than Intel.
SoftBank doesn't have any obvious conflicting interests but I do wonder why they want ARM and about the premium.
@Morris_Dancer I guess I just don't understand why so many people (in my experience) seem to be so opinionated on the subject of tattoos. I really don't get the controversy.
@PlatoSaid Tbh I don't really get a lot of PB humour. It's truly one of a kind, in more ways than one. On the subject of stubble though, for me it depends on the bloke and whether he looks good with it or not....
A good beard can be magnificent. Sadly, a goatee us all I can manage.
I can'r stand hipster beards. However, in winter I often grow a beard - they're brilliant when out and about in cold weather. In summer I find them too warm and itchy.
Then again, in the past I have been mistaken for a werewolf.
I had a call on Friday night from a business partner. He told me the UK Government is looking to throw money at UK R&D projects. The main problem is there is so little capacity in the UK to properly use the money.
I have spent considerable time sorting out one failed Uni project after another where a group of smart PHDs have wasted years and millions on a nice idea bit with no real focus on commercialisation.
There have been four attacks in France recently - one was unsuccessful (the gunman on the train who was beaten up by those Americans). I suggest the French have every reason to assume that their government and security services are simply not doing their jobs properly. That is the real danger if Le Pen decides to put Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite up against Securite. It could easily prove a winner.
Other than that slight criticism, great post.
The more attacks there are, the more the indigenous French will flock to a modern day Jean d'Arc to save them from the enemy in their midst, who will be looking towards a 1492 solution to solve the problem. There are clearly different possibilities to stop her. A respected conservative native French politician like Juppe would offer the best odds, but he is nearly 71 years old. A socialist, or Sarkozy (with his previous failure in 2012 and part foreign background - 50% Magyar, 25% Turkish-Jewish), will have less chance.
Remind me what happened to Ms d'Arc....?
The French immolated her
A novel interpretation of the nationality of those who had her tried and burnt.
I'm sure if you dug about long enough you'd find some family connection amongst her prosecutors.
The Burgundians?
(A great friend of mine's ancestor didn't set fire to her but they did give the lighted torch to the man who did. My family was still - we think - peasant farmers in Northamptonshire at the time)
Ha! I swear you could say anything on here and we'd believe you. What a great tale nevertheless.
Indeed so - didn't Charles also tell us that he had a cousin who married a Prince/Princess (can't remember which)?
Marie Severine de Caramon Chimay in the current generation. My 2nd cousin and close friend.
Your recollection was to our honorific title of the Princess of Connemara
It's a fairly mobile workforce. We'd certainly move away from the area - reluctantly - if Mrs J's work meant she had to. Although we did turn down an opportunity to move to Switzerland a few years ago.
ARM is one of the hubs that makes the Cambridge tech sector. Remove it (or downgrade its importance), and it becomes less of a hub.
Do you know anything about the demographics of the ARM workforce? From what little I know of the company they are very highly skilled but would have a limited number of potential employers. Are they people who would want to relocate to Asia for example? Also, given they're an IP company and the value is their people, what would stop a competitor company forming to employ those who didn't want to relocate with ARM?
I know a fair few of the ARM workforce. Although most are at junior level, I've worked with two of the original chip developers in the past (though they were at God-level and I was a Pleb). Sophie in particular is an interesting character and an utter genius (though she's never worked for ARM itself).
As I said below, the people are not quite as important as they would be in a different IP company. Because they licence their IP at a low level, there are plenty of people who know the ins and outs of the designs and IP.
As for another company taking over the staff: ARM's brilliance is in its positioning as an independent chip designer. This means Apple knows it can deal with it under the same fair terms as Samsung, and vice versa. If it was (say) owned by Intel, that would not be the case: they would always be worried that Intel might squeeze them. Then there is the deep knowledge of ARM in the tech world.
People have tried to produce new chip designs to beat ARM, but they've not succeeded yet, partly because of the factors mentioned above. t'd be hard for a new start company to do so.
Thanks for that reply
Interesting that you mention their independence as a big selling point, until you said that I'd have thought they'd be a good target for Apple and their huge pile of cash.
ARM is a lovely illustration of something quite rare. The value of the company is destroyed if any of its customers purchase it.
Tattoos are a form of 'defacing' yourselves and beards are terrible, apparently. My god - I hope I'm not as miserable as some of you guys when I get old! I don't have any tattoos and am fairly neutral on the subject of beards. But how others choose to dress isn't really of my concern. And I don't know why it would concern others that much either.
Don't think there are many miserable people on here. However, this is PB. Ever watchful. Ever judging. Often completely wrong (apart from a sizeable contingent of PB tories noted for their infallibility).
I know some PB Tories tend to get elections spot on. But I am not sure their magical powers extend to other areas of expertise....
Tattoos are a form of 'defacing' yourselves and beards are terrible, apparently. My god - I hope I'm not as miserable as some of you guys when I get old! I don't have any tattoos and am fairly neutral on the subject of beards. But how others choose to dress isn't really of my concern. And I don't know why it would concern others that much either.
Don't think there are many miserable people on here. However, this is PB. Ever watchful. Ever judging. Often completely wrong (apart from a sizeable contingent of PB tories noted for their infallibility).
I know some PB Tories tend to get elections spot on. But I am not sure their magical powers extend to other areas of expertise....
I had a call on Friday night from a business partner. He told me the UK Government is looking to throw money at UK R&D projects. The main problem is there is so little capacity in the UK to properly use the money.
I have spent considerable time sorting out one failed Uni project after another where a group of smart PHDs have wasted years and millions on a nice idea bit with no real focus on commercialisation.
ARM is the kind of company we need to keep going.
Presumably the call was referring to R&D that is at tech transfer/commercialisation stage?
There is going to a bloody massive R&D shortfall in universities for more pure/pre-commercial research stuff thanks to us being out of EU and Horizon. Already, according to Will Hutton, UK unis look for EU partners are getting the cold shoulder for co-operative projects cos they don't think we'll be around in 2 or 3 years time.
Interesting that you mention their independence as a big selling point, until you said that I'd have thought they'd be a good target for Apple and their huge pile of cash.
That is what people generally think but it would be very bad news for ARM to be owned by a company that directly competes with ARM licensees. The reason ARM succeeded where others didn't is precisely because it operates independently and doesn't compete with customers, if it was owned by Apple that good will would evaporate, and the business model itself would be damaged.
Disappointing to see you've joined the Project Told You So club.
Us Remainers, the 48, can't win can we? If we point out the dire pain that is clearly already happening we are just being "I told you so".
Would Leavers, if they had lost, be keeping quiet if migration went through the roof thanks to the EU?
Dire is a bit strong tbh. I'd go for mild to tough. It's barely been a month since the vote and no one knows how it is going to shake out, yet we have an apparent queue of countries wanting to trade with us on preferential terms and having done the sums from the nations mentioned if we were able to sign free trade deals with them all it would replace about 80% of EU GDP were we unable to come to terms with them within the two years. Many of the nations mentioned are actually more favourable to our exports than the EU as well.
My point is that we need to wait and see what happens before making these grand statements about stuff that is already happening, because from my vantage point very little is happening other than a deserved weaker currency based on the expectation of monetary stimulus.
It's a fairly mobile workforce. We'd certainly move away from the area - reluctantly - if Mrs J's work meant she had to. Although we did turn down an opportunity to move to Switzerland a few years ago.
ARM is one of the hubs that makes the Cambridge tech sector. Remove it (or downgrade its importance), and it becomes less of a hub.
Do you know anything about the demographics of the ARM workforce? From what little I know of the company they are very highly skilled but would have a limited number of potential employers. Are they people who would want to relocate to Asia for example? Also, given they're an IP company and the value is their people, what would stop a competitor company forming to employ those who didn't want to relocate with ARM?
I know a fair few of the ARM workforce. Although most are at junior level, I've worked with two of the original chip developers in the past (though they were at God-level and I was a Pleb). Sophie in particular is an interesting character and an utter genius (though she's never worked for ARM itself).
As I said below, the people are not quite as important as they would be in a different IP company. Because they licence their IP at a low level, there are plenty of people who know the ins and outs of the designs and IP.
As for another company taking over the staff: ARM's brilliance is in its positioning as an independent chip designer. This means Apple knows it can deal with it under the same fair terms as Samsung, and vice versa. If it was (say) owned by Intel, that would not be the case: they would always be worried that Intel might squeeze them. Then there is the deep knowledge of ARM in the tech world.
People have tried to produce new chip designs to beat ARM, but they've not succeeded yet, partly because of the factors mentioned above. t'd be hard for a new start company to do so.
Thanks for that reply
Interesting that you mention their independence as a big selling point, until you said that I'd have thought they'd be a good target for Apple and their huge pile of cash.
That would kill them. There's no way Samsung, Broadcom, etc would have large parts of their businesses relying on core IP that was fully under the control of one of their large competitors. They'd go it alone, despite the disadvantages.
That's why JCB went into the diesel engine business ten or so years ago. They traditionally had a relationship with the UK firm Perkins, but then Caterpillar took over Perkins. JCB didn't want their engine supplier to be controlled by their main competitor, so they went to the expense of developing their own.
And in the usual JCB way, publicised it to the Max, including a land-speed record.
Disappointing to see you've joined the Project Told You So club.
Us Remainers, the 48, can't win can we? If we point out the dire pain that is clearly already happening we are just being "I told you so".
Would Leavers, if they had lost, be keeping quiet if migration went through the roof thanks to the EU?
And you are another. I followed a few of your posts whilst I was away in Thailand via my wife's phone and then were hysterical, pleasurably writhing in negative news and victimhood, and entirely lacking in any balance whatsoever.
If you want an example of a balanced Remainer, try someone like BigGNorthWales or Richard Nabavi who have accepted the verdict.
If you want an example of a balanced Leaver, try MaxPB or rcs1000, both of whom acknowledge negatives and problems of their side on here.
To place your constant postings about everything bad about the leave vote info context please could you clarify at what point you are within the 5 stages? It looks like the stage 2 anger but perhaps could also be stage 4 depression?
Disappointing to see you've joined the Project Told You So club.
Us Remainers, the 48, can't win can we? If we point out the dire pain that is clearly already happening we are just being "I told you so".
Would Leavers, if they had lost, be keeping quiet if migration went through the roof thanks to the EU?
Of course not. People whine irrespective, don't they . Labour voters cavil about the Tories, Lib Dems about everyone and so forth.
While you need no permission from me, it's just common sense that every bad thing that happens will be laid at the Brexit door, ad infinitum, so do carry on!
I'm a grim-dark Brexiteer. You can't administer a shock like this to an already slowing economy and expect nothing but kittens and rainbows. It's idiotic.
A good beard can be magnificent. Sadly, a goatee us all I can manage.
Neck beards - urgh.
One of the very worst beards around at present has to be Gary Lineker's pathetic effort .... surely a goatee to end all goatees!
A walking mid-life crisis.
The best thing about MLC is coming out the otherside and laughing at those experiencing one. Good friend of mine just sold his convertible sports car and bought a nice BMW M3. He's very proud of it. Couldn't resist congratulating him on becoming a grown up again.
Mr. Max, anyone who bought at the end of the second day after the vote must've made a packet.
Of course, predicting a trough's end is not an easy task.
The FTSE 100 is up 750 points from the recent trough, that's about 12.5%.
Ironically the weaker pound helps the top 100 companies, as they book most of their revenue in other currencies. The all share index is also up, close to a 52-week high.
The FTSE All Share Index is very much dominated by the FTSE 100 Index. A less overseas earnings influenced measure of the recent recovery in share prices would be the FTSE 250 Index, which has also risen by over 12% from its recent lows.
This thing where hyper-sulking remainers are DESPERATE for everything to go down the pan is frankly demeaning.
That you choose to use as your example the largest foreign investment into the UK in corporate history as some kind of suggestion that things are going bad just makes you look like a simpleton.
As I've said before on the Referendum the turnout was high, the question was clear and the margin decisive. Now to add to that is the lack of any buyers remorse in the post vote polling. I just find the politics of it utterly mind blowing. A deep and considered cultural vote against X. X being in part nebulous and self defined. But in socio economic terms they'll be more X in the short and medium term and perhaps the long term. It's mind bogglingly fascinating. Utterly unlike any domestic political event in my life time. It dwarfs '79 let alone '97, '03 or '08. What a time to be alive.
It's a fairly mobile workforce. We'd certainly move away from the area - reluctantly - if Mrs J's work meant she had to. Although we did turn down an opportunity to move to Switzerland a few years ago.
ARM is one of the hubs that makes the Cambridge tech sector. Remove it (or downgrade its importance), and it becomes less of a hub.
I know a fair few of the ARM workforce. Although most are at junior level, I've worked with two of the original chip developers in the past (though they were at God-level and I was a Pleb). Sophie in particular is an interesting character and an utter genius (though she's never worked for ARM itself).
As I said below, the people are not quite as important as they would be in a different IP company. Because they licence their IP at a low level, there are plenty of people who know the ins and outs of the designs and IP.
As for another company taking over the staff: ARM's brilliance is in its positioning as an independent chip designer. This means Apple knows it can deal with it under the same fair terms as Samsung, and vice versa. If it was (say) owned by Intel, that would not be the case: they would always be worried that Intel might squeeze them. Then there is the deep knowledge of ARM in the tech world.
People have tried to produce new chip designs to beat ARM, but they've not succeeded yet, partly because of the factors mentioned above. t'd be hard for a new start company to do so.
Thanks for that reply
Interesting that you mention their independence as a big selling point, until you said that I'd have thought they'd be a good target for Apple and their huge pile of cash.
That would kill them. There's no way Samsung, Broadcom, etc would have large parts of their businesses relying on core IP that was fully under the control of one of their large competitors. They'd go it alone, despite the disadvantages.
That's why JCB went into the diesel engine business ten or so years ago. They traditionally had a relationship with the UK firm Perkins, but then Caterpillar took over Perkins. JCB didn't want their engine supplier to be controlled by their main competitor, so they went to the expense of developing their own.
And in the usual JCB way, publicised it to the Max, including a land-speed record.
Tattoos are a form of 'defacing' yourselves and beards are terrible, apparently. My god - I hope I'm not as miserable as some of you guys when I get old! I don't have any tattoos and am fairly neutral on the subject of beards. But how others choose to dress isn't really of my concern. And I don't know why it would concern others that much either.
Don't think there are many miserable people on here. However, this is PB. Ever watchful. Ever judging. Often completely wrong (apart from a sizeable contingent of PB tories noted for their infallibility).
I know some PB Tories tend to get elections spot on. But I am not sure their magical powers extend to other areas of expertise....
It's not because Tories are psychic, just that the other parties (esp Labour) are currently in the grip of a terminal thickness.
Good article. Personally I think Sarkozy will run and has an excellent chance of winning the LR nomination as it will be mainly party loyalists who turn out and his tough message on Salafism etc will play well with them. Juppe would be a better bet in the general election though where turnout will be much higher and if he fails to win the primary he will still likely run against Sarkozy too. With the centre right split and Bayrou also winning centrist votes Le Pen would likely win round 1 but Hollande could yet scrape through to round 2 if he wins the Socialist nomination and is the only centre left candidate. Also, despite his poor polling, he will still be the incumbent president. In a Hollande and Le Pen run-off all bets are off
There have been four attacks in France recently - one was unsuccessful (the gunman on the train who was beaten up by those Americans). I suggest the French have every reason to assume that their government and security services are simply not doing their jobs properly. That is the real danger if Le Pen decides to put Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite up against Securite. It could easily prove a winner.
Other than that slight criticism, great post.
The more attacks there are, the more the indigenous French will flock to a modern day Jean d'Arc to save them from the enemy in their midst, who will be looking towards a 1492 solution to solve the problem. There are clearly different possibilities to stop her. A respected conservative native French politician like Juppe would offer the best odds, but he is nearly 71 years old. A socialist, or Sarkozy (with his previous failure in 2012 and part foreign background - 50% Magyar, 25% Turkish-Jewish), will have less chance.
Remind me what happened to Ms d'Arc....?
The French immolated her
A novel interpretation of the nationality of those who had her tried and burnt.
I'm sure if you dug about long enough you'd find some family connection amongst her prosecutors.
The Burgundians?
(A great friend of mine's ancestor didn't set fire to her but they did give the lighted torch to the man who did. My family was still - we think - peasant farmers in Northamptonshire at the time)
Surely your tallest tale yet, Charles. You were once peasants? In the MIDLANDS? Pull the other one....
I had a call on Friday night from a business partner. He told me the UK Government is looking to throw money at UK R&D projects. The main problem is there is so little capacity in the UK to properly use the money.
I have spent considerable time sorting out one failed Uni project after another where a group of smart PHDs have wasted years and millions on a nice idea bit with no real focus on commercialisation.
ARM is the kind of company we need to keep going.
R&D has been neglected for far too long and is one of the main reasons for our stagnant productivity along with the inexhaustible supply of cheap labour. It's the reverse of the economics of the Cold War years when the normal supply of economic migrants and cheap labour from eastern Europe was cut off.
Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.
Seems like a good opening negotiating position from his point of view. Get used it.
Not really. It will be ignored and he will lose credibility.
PB Brexitory thinks Juncker has credibility to lose? Wow.
That's what I was thinking as well.
Well at least you must be very relieved you both voted out.
I actually voted Remain!
I know.
You have just proved the point I was making in one single 4 worded response.
Early thing to consider: check the weather. If dry, a safety car is very unlikely (I believe it's the least likely circuit to see one). There's a load of run-off and the track itself is wide. Plus the VSC reduces the chance of an actual safety car emerging.
Odds likely to be dire, though. So, do at your own risk [I'm unlikely to back it due to my loathing of short odds].
Disappointing to see you've joined the Project Told You So club.
Us Remainers, the 48, can't win can we? If we point out the dire pain that is clearly already happening we are just being "I told you so".
Would Leavers, if they had lost, be keeping quiet if migration went through the roof thanks to the EU?
Just take some satisfaction that we're reaching the tipping point wherein the amount of Brexiteer whining about Remainer whining is about to overtake yer actual Remainer whining.
I had a call on Friday night from a business partner. He told me the UK Government is looking to throw money at UK R&D projects. The main problem is there is so little capacity in the UK to properly use the money.
I have spent considerable time sorting out one failed Uni project after another where a group of smart PHDs have wasted years and millions on a nice idea bit with no real focus on commercialisation.
ARM is the kind of company we need to keep going.
R&D has been neglected for far too long and is one of the main reasons for our stagnant productivity along with the inexhaustible supply of cheap labour. It's the reverse of the economics of the Cold War years when the normal supply of economic migrants and cheap labour from eastern Europe was cut off.
Given the UK (well, England) has three of the world's top ten research universities, it seems unlikely that research is being neglected.
This thing where hyper-sulking remainers are DESPERATE for everything to go down the pan is frankly demeaning.
That you choose to use as your example the largest foreign investment into the UK in corporate history as some kind of suggestion that things are going bad just makes you look like a simpleton.
Indeed, the idea that this is a cut price deal is a fantasy. This is a 70% premium on ARM's pre-referendum price and even after adjusting for a 10% reduction in the value of Sterling it is still a 54% premium.
To place your constant postings about everything bad about the leave vote info context please could you clarify at what point you are within the 5 stages? It looks like the stage 2 anger but perhaps could also be stage 4 depression?
Thanks in advance
Understanding the Kubler-Ross model doesn't mean bereavement is an illegitimate response to a death.
I had a call on Friday night from a business partner. He told me the UK Government is looking to throw money at UK R&D projects. The main problem is there is so little capacity in the UK to properly use the money.
I have spent considerable time sorting out one failed Uni project after another where a group of smart PHDs have wasted years and millions on a nice idea bit with no real focus on commercialisation.
ARM is the kind of company we need to keep going.
R&D has been neglected for far too long and is one of the main reasons for our stagnant productivity along with the inexhaustible supply of cheap labour. It's the reverse of the economics of the Cold War years when the normal supply of economic migrants and cheap labour from eastern Europe was cut off.
Given the UK (well, England) has three of the world's top ten research universities, it seems unlikely that research is being neglected.
There have been four attacks in France recently - one was unsuccessful (the gunman on the train who was beaten up by those Americans). I suggest the French have every reason to assume that their government and security services are simply not doing their jobs properly. That is the real danger if Le Pen decides to put Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite up against Securite. It could easily prove a winner.
Other than that slight criticism, great post.
The more attacks there are, the more the indigenous French will flock to a modern day Jean d'Arc to save them from the enemy in their midst, who will be looking towards a 1492 solution to solve the problem. There are clearly different possibilities to stop her. A respected conservative native French politician like Juppe would offer the best odds, but he is nearly 71 years old. A socialist, or Sarkozy (with his previous failure in 2012 and part foreign background - 50% Magyar, 25% Turkish-Jewish), will have less chance.
Remind me what happened to Ms d'Arc....?
The French immolated her
A novel interpretation of the nationality of those who had her tried and burnt.
I'm sure if you dug about long enough you'd find some family connection amongst her prosecutors.
The Burgundians?
(A great friend of mine's ancestor didn't set fire to her but they did give the lighted torch to the man who did. My family was still - we think - peasant farmers in Northamptonshire at the time)
Surely your tallest tale yet, Charles. You were once peasants? In the MIDLANDS? Pull the other one....
When he says peasant farmers I think he actually means minor landed gentry
This thing where hyper-sulking remainers are DESPERATE for everything to go down the pan is frankly demeaning.
That you choose to use as your example the largest foreign investment into the UK in corporate history as some kind of suggestion that things are going bad just makes you look like a simpleton.
It would be a good example if ARM were struggling and Softbank were using the weakened pound to swoop in. However, as they're paying a huge premium AND Arm's shares have risen post-Brexit (they book revenue in $) it doesn't serve.
@Scott_P posted a similar 'doom' story about Wales losing EU funding. Leaving aside the net contributor part, the amounts involved work out to slightly less than 22p per day per head of population.
There are plenty of downsides to Brexit. It would just be better to be more selective when trying to make a point.
To place your constant postings about everything bad about the leave vote info context please could you clarify at what point you are within the 5 stages? It looks like the stage 2 anger but perhaps could also be stage 4 depression?
Thanks in advance
Understanding the Kubler-Ross model doesn't mean bereavement is an illegitimate response to a death.
Firstly: childish sulking is not part of DABDA
Secondly: an understanding of the model should make it easier not to be such an arse about everything.
Mr. Max, anyone who bought at the end of the second day after the vote must've made a packet.
Of course, predicting a trough's end is not an easy task.
The FTSE 100 is up 750 points from the recent trough, that's about 12.5%.
Ironically the weaker pound helps the top 100 companies, as they book most of their revenue in other currencies. The all share index is also up, close to a 52-week high.
tbf markets are up around the world, with the latest wall of money about to be unleashed by the Japanese, expectations that interest rates will stay lower for longer given the Brexit vote (with the UK poised to reduce), and the clear statement from the BoI that it will create money to prop everything up if there is any sign of a wobble. It has been the same after previous suggestions of renewed crisis - once the authorities announce they won't let things go down, of course investors jump in for some risk-free money.
The continued predictions of eventual doom from some commentators rest upon the conclusion that at some point the wall-of-money approach will stop working, and we'll have nowhere else to go.
None of this says anything about whether Brexit will be good, bad or indifferent.
This thing where hyper-sulking remainers are DESPERATE for everything to go down the pan is frankly demeaning.
That you choose to use as your example the largest foreign investment into the UK in corporate history as some kind of suggestion that things are going bad just makes you look like a simpleton.
It's more complicated than that. To what extent are these sort of global capital flows precisely what was being voted against ? Does the currency devaluation make them more likely ? Outside the eurosphere will these capital flows have garage social consequences. Brexit is a gargantuan does of creative destruction.
This thing where hyper-sulking remainers are DESPERATE for everything to go down the pan is frankly demeaning.
That you choose to use as your example the largest foreign investment into the UK in corporate history as some kind of suggestion that things are going bad just makes you look like a simpleton.
Indeed, the idea that this is a cut price deal is a fantasy. This is a 70% premium on ARM's pre-referendum price and even after adjusting for a 10% reduction in the value of Sterling it is still a 54% premium.
OH NO BREXIT HAS MADE THE UK A MORE ATTRACTIVE TARGET FOR INVESTMENT! WE'RE DOOOOOOOOMED!
Perhaps now is time for sulky remainers to STFU until we get some *actual* bad economic news. Perhaps the collapse of the Italian and German banking sectors can be blamed on Brexit I dunno.
This thing where hyper-sulking remainers are DESPERATE for everything to go down the pan is frankly demeaning.
That you choose to use as your example the largest foreign investment into the UK in corporate history as some kind of suggestion that things are going bad just makes you look like a simpleton.
It's more complicated than that. To what extent are these sort of global capital flows precisely what was being voted against ? Does the currency devaluation make them more likely ? Outside the eurosphere will these capital flows have garage social consequences. Brexit is a gargantuan does of creative destruction.
It once again demonstrates something I've long suspected. The average metrolib doesn't understand global finance or how it works in the tiniest, slightest part.
Most of the top golfers have announced they're not competing at the Olympics, all citing the Zika virus as the reason. Nothing at all to do with no prize money, sponsorship rules and strict drug testing.
Most of the top golfers have announced they're not competing at the Olympics, all citing the Zika virus as the reason. Nothing at all to do with no prize money, sponsorship rules and strict drug testing.
This thing where hyper-sulking remainers are DESPERATE for everything to go down the pan is frankly demeaning.
That you choose to use as your example the largest foreign investment into the UK in corporate history as some kind of suggestion that things are going bad just makes you look like a simpleton.
It's more complicated than that. To what extent are these sort of global capital flows precisely what was being voted against ? Does the currency devaluation make them more likely ? Outside the eurosphere will these capital flows have garage social consequences. Brexit is a gargantuan does of creative destruction.
This isn't a cut price deal though. SoftBank are paying a huge premium both dollar adjusted and in Sterling. I very much doubt the weakness of Sterling had much to do with this, Son has probably been planning it for a while and weak Sterling has just brought it into play sooner.
Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.
OK but is he technically correct that a member country cannot unilaterally open trade negotiations with a non-EU country? If so what sanctions are available if we break that undertaking?
As we are going to be a member for another two and a half years at least will both sides then feel free to ignore any EU regulations that don't suit during that period?
I know PB will be full of jingoistic bravado about telling johnny-foreigner to bugger off but, in the real world, I suspect the situation is more complicated.
Ah, ARM. My best ever investment, made shortly after it floated in 1998 at the ludicrously low valuation of (from memory) just over £200m. I couldn't understand what the investment banks advising on the float price were thinking - my back-of-the-envelope calculations made it worth at least 10 times that amount. In the event I sold out for 30 times what I'd invested.
There's no doubt that ARM is a class act, but the price Softbank are paying is very high - £24bn for a company which made just £414m profit before tax in 2015.
As regards the importance of ARM to the UK, I don't see any problem here. SoftBank is a hybrid between a venture capital/investment fund, and a hi-tech conglomerate. They'll leave ARM pretty much alone, I think. Nor is there much risk of them moving the design team out of Cambridge - you can't reproduce that level of concentrated hi-tech expertise easily, and there's no advantage in trying to do so.
Incidentally, in the short term this is a bit of very welcome news to Phil Hammond. £24bn is a substantial injection of foreign exchange to offset the current account deficit (£32.6bn in Q1 2016).
Yes - dreadful investment, pouring money into a high tech investment company based in Britain. Awful news that they are looking to expand and grow with horrid non-EU money.
That's before we even mention the Uk based shareholders gaining value and having money to spend - plus the shocking capital gains taxes payable to the exchequer.
This thing where hyper-sulking remainers are DESPERATE for everything to go down the pan is frankly demeaning.
That you choose to use as your example the largest foreign investment into the UK in corporate history as some kind of suggestion that things are going bad just makes you look like a simpleton.
It's more complicated than that. To what extent are these sort of global capital flows precisely what was being voted against ? Does the currency devaluation make them more likely ? Outside the eurosphere will these capital flows have garage social consequences. Brexit is a gargantuan does of creative destruction.
This isn't a cut price deal though. SoftBank are paying a huge premium both dollar adjusted and in Sterling. I very much doubt the weakness of Sterling had much to do with this, Son has probably been planning it for a while and weak Sterling has just brought it into play sooner.
It seems the average sulky remainer thinks that two global megacorps can have their M&E teams put together one of the largest acquisitions in corporate history in little over a fortnight.
To place your constant postings about everything bad about the leave vote info context please could you clarify at what point you are within the 5 stages? It looks like the stage 2 anger but perhaps could also be stage 4 depression?
Thanks in advance
Understanding the Kubler-Ross model doesn't mean bereavement is an illegitimate response to a death.
Firstly: childish sulking is not part of DABDA
Secondly: an understanding of the model should make it easier not to be such an arse about everything.
But this isn't a Death it's a War. Even if EU membership is dead in a political struggle there are myriad other outcomes still in play. If I'm stuck in Kubler-Ross why shouldn't I try and get the mob that killed our EU membership to move on to the Brexiters if everything goes to **** ? Does the Game of Thrones end for ever when there is a new occupant ?
Ah, ARM. My best ever investment, made shortly after it floated in 1998 at the ludicrously low valuation of (from memory) just over £200m. I couldn't understand what the investment banks advising on the float price were thinking - my back-of-the-envelope calculations made it worth at least 10 times that amount. In the event I sold out for 30 times what I'd invested.
There's no doubt that ARM is a class act, but the price Softbank are paying is very high - £24bn for a company which made just £414m profit before tax in 2015.
As regards the importance of ARM to the UK, I don't see any problem here. SoftBank is a hybrid between a venture capital/investment fund, and a hi-tech conglomerate. They'll leave ARM pretty much alone, I think. Nor is there much risk of them moving the design team out of Cambridge - you can't reproduce that level of concentrated hi-tech expertise easily, and there's no advantage in trying to do so.
Incidentally, in the short term this is a bit of very welcome news to Phil Hammond. £24bn is a substantial injection of foreign exchange to offset the current account deficit (£32.6bn in Q1 2016).
On what did you base your assessment of future growth? This was long before ARM's breakout success in smartphones.
This thing where hyper-sulking remainers are DESPERATE for everything to go down the pan is frankly demeaning.
That you choose to use as your example the largest foreign investment into the UK in corporate history as some kind of suggestion that things are going bad just makes you look like a simpleton.
Indeed, the idea that this is a cut price deal is a fantasy. This is a 70% premium on ARM's pre-referendum price and even after adjusting for a 10% reduction in the value of Sterling it is still a 54% premium.
OH NO BREXIT HAS MADE THE UK A MORE ATTRACTIVE TARGET FOR INVESTMENT! WE'RE DOOOOOOOOMED!
Perhaps now is time for sulky remainers to STFU until we get some *actual* bad economic news. Perhaps the collapse of the Italian and German banking sectors can be blamed on Brexit I dunno.
Some points I've picked up from various ruminations and forecasts:
- A technical recession of around -0.8%. (IMF). Others have it slightly worse (e.g. Credit Suisse) - Inflation to rise to ~ 2.2% in 2017 (S&P) - A GDP opportunity cost of around 2% by 2018 (various) - A 2.5% rise in unemployment by 2018 (various) - A delay of 1-2 years before UK budget surplus implying Brexit PR cost of ~ £30 billion (IFS)
Ah, ARM. My best ever investment, made shortly after it floated in 1998 at the ludicrously low valuation of (from memory) just over £200m. I couldn't understand what the investment banks advising on the float price were thinking - my back-of-the-envelope calculations made it worth at least 10 times that amount. In the event I sold out for 30 times what I'd invested.
There's no doubt that ARM is a class act, but the price Softbank are paying is very high - £24bn for a company which made just £414m profit before tax in 2015.
As regards the importance of ARM to the UK, I don't see any problem here. SoftBank is a hybrid between a venture capital/investment fund, and a hi-tech conglomerate. They'll leave ARM pretty much alone, I think. Nor is there much risk of them moving the design team out of Cambridge - you can't reproduce that level of concentrated hi-tech expertise easily, and there's no advantage in trying to do so.
Incidentally, in the short term this is a bit of very welcome news to Phil Hammond. £24bn is a substantial injection of foreign exchange to offset the current account deficit (£32.6bn in Q1 2016).
£24bn doesn't come into the UK. ARM is largely owned by non-UK funds already.
Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.
OK but is he technically correct that a member country cannot unilaterally open trade negotiations with a non-EU country? If so what sanctions are available if we break that undertaking?
As we are going to be a member for another two and a half years at least will both sides then feel free to ignore any EU regulations that don't suit during that period?
I know PB will be full of jingoistic bravado about telling johnny-foreigner to bugger off but, in the real world, I suspect the situation is more complicated.
He is not correct, the UK cannot unilaterally enter a trade deal outside of the EU. We can talk to whoever we want. This is like a wife to whom we've served divorce papers crying foul after we've re-entered the dating scene despite the divorce not being finalised.
To place your constant postings about everything bad about the leave vote info context please could you clarify at what point you are within the 5 stages? It looks like the stage 2 anger but perhaps could also be stage 4 depression?
Thanks in advance
Understanding the Kubler-Ross model doesn't mean bereavement is an illegitimate response to a death.
Firstly: childish sulking is not part of DABDA
Secondly: an understanding of the model should make it easier not to be such an arse about everything.
But this isn't a Death it's a War. Even if EU membership is dead in a political struggle there are myriad other outcomes still in play. If I'm stuck in Kubler-Ross why shouldn't I try and get the mob that killed our EU membership to move on to the Brexiters if everything goes to **** ? Does the Game of Thrones end for ever when there is a new occupant ?
"When you play the game of thrones you win... or you sulk"
Early thing to consider: check the weather. If dry, a safety car is very unlikely (I believe it's the least likely circuit to see one). There's a load of run-off and the track itself is wide. Plus the VSC reduces the chance of an actual safety car emerging.
Odds likely to be dire, though. So, do at your own risk [I'm unlikely to back it due to my loathing of short odds].
A quick look at Betfair markets for Hungary: No SC is 1.25 but nothing matched so far. Do like your thinking though, the actual SC is becoming a rare beast these days on a dry track.
I had a call on Friday night from a business partner. He told me the UK Government is looking to throw money at UK R&D projects. The main problem is there is so little capacity in the UK to properly use the money.
I have spent considerable time sorting out one failed Uni project after another where a group of smart PHDs have wasted years and millions on a nice idea bit with no real focus on commercialisation.
ARM is the kind of company we need to keep going.
R&D has been neglected for far too long and is one of the main reasons for our stagnant productivity along with the inexhaustible supply of cheap labour. It's the reverse of the economics of the Cold War years when the normal supply of economic migrants and cheap labour from eastern Europe was cut off.
Given the UK (well, England) has three of the world's top ten research universities, it seems unlikely that research is being neglected.
Corporate R&D is poor in the UK.
Been destroyed over the past 20 years. Here's how it goes.
UK based company is merged or taken over by another entity headquarted elsewhere. Two R&D centres in Europe Company decides to start research in China. Company decides to keep R&D near headquarters. UK R&D unit closes.
This thing where hyper-sulking remainers are DESPERATE for everything to go down the pan is frankly demeaning.
That you choose to use as your example the largest foreign investment into the UK in corporate history as some kind of suggestion that things are going bad just makes you look like a simpleton.
Indeed, the idea that this is a cut price deal is a fantasy. This is a 70% premium on ARM's pre-referendum price and even after adjusting for a 10% reduction in the value of Sterling it is still a 54% premium.
OH NO BREXIT HAS MADE THE UK A MORE ATTRACTIVE TARGET FOR INVESTMENT! WE'RE DOOOOOOOOMED!
Perhaps now is time for sulky remainers to STFU until we get some *actual* bad economic news. Perhaps the collapse of the Italian and German banking sectors can be blamed on Brexit I dunno.
Some points I've picked up from various ruminations and forecasts:
- A technical recession of around -0.8%. (IMF). Others have it slightly worse (e.g. Credit Suisse) - Inflation to rise to ~ 2.2% in 2017 (S&P) - A GDP opportunity cost of around 2% by 2018 (various) - A 2.5% rise in unemployment by 2018 (various) - A delay of 1-2 years before UK budget surplus implying Brexit PR cost of ~ £30 billion (IFS)
These are all decent examples.
All I would say is that none of that has actually happened yet. All we can see so far is the fall in Sterling. Very little else has changed. Even the house price indicators are not as negative as they were expected to be.
tbf markets are up around the world, with the latest wall of money about to be unleashed by the Japanese, expectations that interest rates will stay lower for longer given the Brexit vote (with the UK poised to reduce), and the clear statement from the BoI that it will create money to prop everything up if there is any sign of a wobble. It has been the same after previous suggestions of renewed crisis - once the authorities announce they won't let things go down, of course investors jump in for some risk-free money.
The continued predictions of eventual doom from some commentators rest upon the conclusion that at some point the wall-of-money approach will stop working, and we'll have nowhere else to go.
None of this says anything about whether Brexit will be good, bad or indifferent.
QE is financial methadone and the markets are addicted. One day interest rates will have to rise and what happens then ? Or is this the "new normal" with almost zero inflation and interest rates - what's the point in anyone saving ?
This thing where hyper-sulking remainers are DESPERATE for everything to go down the pan is frankly demeaning.
That you choose to use as your example the largest foreign investment into the UK in corporate history as some kind of suggestion that things are going bad just makes you look like a simpleton.
Indeed, the idea that this is a cut price deal is a fantasy. This is a 70% premium on ARM's pre-referendum price and even after adjusting for a 10% reduction in the value of Sterling it is still a 54% premium.
OH NO BREXIT HAS MADE THE UK A MORE ATTRACTIVE TARGET FOR INVESTMENT! WE'RE DOOOOOOOOMED!
Perhaps now is time for sulky remainers to STFU until we get some *actual* bad economic news. Perhaps the collapse of the Italian and German banking sectors can be blamed on Brexit I dunno.
Some points I've picked up from various ruminations and forecasts:
- A technical recession of around -0.8%. (IMF). Others have it slightly worse (e.g. Credit Suisse) - Inflation to rise to ~ 2.2% in 2017 (S&P) - A GDP opportunity cost of around 2% by 2018 (various) - A 2.5% rise in unemployment by 2018 (various) - A delay of 1-2 years before UK budget surplus implying Brexit PR cost of ~ £30 billion (IFS)
These are all decent examples.
I'm not denying some (or all) of these may occur. But they've not happened *yet*. And until they do, I think the mingmongs should really stop trying to invent crises where none exist.
JOOI, what happens if these things don't materialize? Does it then become Official the remainers were just a bunch of lying shitstacks all along?
Comments
Current lots of uncertain voters will hold their noses and vote blue, May can't be accused of opportunism when Labour and the Libs have both called for an election and crucially an increased majority makes it so much easier to deal with the awkward squads from left or right.
Ironically the weaker pound helps the top 100 companies, as they book most of their revenue in other currencies. The all share index is also up, close to a 52-week high.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/stockmarket/3/one_month.stm
Thank you for another great column Mr Herdson. The FN's day might come, but not in 2017, then.
On ARM, I have no idea whether its a good thing (FDI) or a bad thing (ARM relocates out of UK, or main activities move abroad). However, it's a handy example of the level of FDI in this country.
Apparently we're #3 in the world behind the US and China in terms of FDI stocks. About a third of all European FDI comes to the UK - a total of £44 billion in 2014.
One of the questions we're going to answer with Brexit is how much of that investment is based on our membership of the Single Market.
Disappointing to see you've joined the Project Told You So club.
As I said below, the people are not quite as important as they would be in a different IP company. Because they licence their IP at a low level, there are plenty of people who know the ins and outs of the designs and IP.
As for another company taking over the staff: ARM's brilliance is in its positioning as an independent chip designer. This means Apple knows it can deal with it under the same fair terms as Samsung, and vice versa. If it was (say) owned by Intel, that would not be the case: they would always be worried that Intel might squeeze them. Then there is the deep knowledge of ARM in the tech world.
People have tried to produce new chip designs to beat ARM, but they've not succeeded yet, partly because of the factors mentioned above. t'd be hard for a new start company to do so.
ARM's value relies just as much on the business model of treating all customers as equals as it does on the IP itself, which in the case of the biggest players is not as important as it was now that they are developing custom micro-architecture. SoftBank would be well advised to let ARM keep on doing what it does.
You know I'd never abuse that, right...
Except Mr. Bean, obviously.
Interesting that you mention their independence as a big selling point, until you said that I'd have thought they'd be a good target for Apple and their huge pile of cash.
Your recollection was to our honorific title of the Princess of Connemara
I agree this looks like a bubble acquisition. There is no real commercial logic.
The danger is that one of the most R&D intensive UK companies gets squeezed to fund Japanese debt repayments.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/17/thailand-is-closed-to-sex-tourism-says-countrys-first-female-tou/
Would Leavers, if they had lost, be keeping quiet if migration went through the roof thanks to the EU?
@PlatoSaid Tbh I don't really get a lot of PB humour. It's truly one of a kind, in more ways than one. On the subject of stubble though, for me it depends on the bloke and whether he looks good with it or not....
Then again, in the past I have been mistaken for a werewolf.
I have spent considerable time sorting out one failed Uni project after another where a group of smart PHDs have wasted years and millions on a nice idea bit with no real focus on commercialisation.
ARM is the kind of company we need to keep going.
There is going to a bloody massive R&D shortfall in universities for more pure/pre-commercial research stuff thanks to us being out of EU and Horizon. Already, according to Will Hutton, UK unis look for EU partners are getting the cold shoulder for co-operative projects cos they don't think we'll be around in 2 or 3 years time.
My point is that we need to wait and see what happens before making these grand statements about stuff that is already happening, because from my vantage point very little is happening other than a deserved weaker currency based on the expectation of monetary stimulus.
The Brexit fire sale begins.
That's why JCB went into the diesel engine business ten or so years ago. They traditionally had a relationship with the UK firm Perkins, but then Caterpillar took over Perkins. JCB didn't want their engine supplier to be controlled by their main competitor, so they went to the expense of developing their own.
And in the usual JCB way, publicised it to the Max, including a land-speed record.
http://www.jcbpowersystems.com/
If you want an example of a balanced Remainer, try someone like BigGNorthWales or Richard Nabavi who have accepted the verdict.
If you want an example of a balanced Leaver, try MaxPB or rcs1000, both of whom acknowledge negatives and problems of their side on here.
Thanks in advance
While you need no permission from me, it's just common sense that every bad thing that happens will be laid at the Brexit door, ad infinitum, so do carry on!
I'm a grim-dark Brexiteer. You can't administer a shock like this to an already slowing economy and expect nothing but kittens and rainbows. It's idiotic.
The best thing about MLC is coming out the otherside and laughing at those experiencing one. Good friend of mine just sold his convertible sports car and bought a nice BMW M3. He's very proud of it. Couldn't resist congratulating him on becoming a grown up again.
That you choose to use as your example the largest foreign investment into the UK in corporate history as some kind of suggestion that things are going bad just makes you look like a simpleton.
You have just proved the point I was making in one single 4 worded response.
Early thing to consider: check the weather. If dry, a safety car is very unlikely (I believe it's the least likely circuit to see one). There's a load of run-off and the track itself is wide. Plus the VSC reduces the chance of an actual safety car emerging.
Odds likely to be dire, though. So, do at your own risk [I'm unlikely to back it due to my loathing of short odds].
Does anyone know much about Zika virus?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3694281/BBC-staff-refuse-travel-cover-Rio-Olympics-frightened-catching-Zika-virus.html
@Scott_P posted a similar 'doom' story about Wales losing EU funding. Leaving aside the net contributor part, the amounts involved work out to slightly less than 22p per day per head of population.
There are plenty of downsides to Brexit. It would just be better to be more selective when trying to make a point.
Secondly: an understanding of the model should make it easier not to be such an arse about everything.
The continued predictions of eventual doom from some commentators rest upon the conclusion that at some point the wall-of-money approach will stop working, and we'll have nowhere else to go.
None of this says anything about whether Brexit will be good, bad or indifferent.
Perhaps now is time for sulky remainers to STFU until we get some *actual* bad economic news. Perhaps the collapse of the Italian and German banking sectors can be blamed on Brexit I dunno.
...And nothing of value was lost.
As we are going to be a member for another two and a half years at least will both sides then feel free to ignore any EU regulations that don't suit during that period?
I know PB will be full of jingoistic bravado about telling johnny-foreigner to bugger off but, in the real world, I suspect the situation is more complicated.
There's no doubt that ARM is a class act, but the price Softbank are paying is very high - £24bn for a company which made just £414m profit before tax in 2015.
As regards the importance of ARM to the UK, I don't see any problem here. SoftBank is a hybrid between a venture capital/investment fund, and a hi-tech conglomerate. They'll leave ARM pretty much alone, I think. Nor is there much risk of them moving the design team out of Cambridge - you can't reproduce that level of concentrated hi-tech expertise easily, and there's no advantage in trying to do so.
Incidentally, in the short term this is a bit of very welcome news to Phil Hammond. £24bn is a substantial injection of foreign exchange to offset the current account deficit (£32.6bn in Q1 2016).
That's before we even mention the Uk based shareholders gaining value and having money to spend - plus the shocking capital gains taxes payable to the exchequer.
The behaviour rules for South Shields Labour meetings appear to ban almost everything that people do in meetings https://t.co/sJhRtLGlGG
These people are basically idiots.
- A technical recession of around -0.8%. (IMF). Others have it slightly worse (e.g. Credit Suisse)
- Inflation to rise to ~ 2.2% in 2017 (S&P)
- A GDP opportunity cost of around 2% by 2018 (various)
- A 2.5% rise in unemployment by 2018 (various)
- A delay of 1-2 years before UK budget surplus implying Brexit PR cost of ~ £30 billion (IFS)
These are all decent examples.
At one of the student unions, they interpreted clapping as both aggressive and personal and possibly dismissive.
http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/614/631/54b.gif
For the win, Hamilton is odds on, so backing Rosberg at 4 should have some value.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/motor-sport/event/27851131/market?marketId=1.125558870
The shareholders of this firm were already global. Now they'll be global via Softbank.
It's not like Cambridge is going to be closed.
UK based company is merged or taken over by another entity headquarted elsewhere.
Two R&D centres in Europe
Company decides to start research in China.
Company decides to keep R&D near headquarters.
UK R&D unit closes.
JOOI, what happens if these things don't materialize? Does it then become Official the remainers were just a bunch of lying shitstacks all along?