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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson says the Eagle has floundered
Never underestimate the ability of Labour MPs to fail to carry through a leadership coup. Ten days ago, it did look as if they had finally got their act together. Virtually the entire Shadow Cabinet resigning in sequence followed by an overwhelming vote of no confidence in the leader would normally have been enough.
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The way through this is clearly for Corbyn to resign in return for making sure another left-wing candidate gets on the ballot. This kind of deal may not be trivial to orchestrate given the lack of trust on both sides, but assuming the NEC is cooperative it doesn't sound like an impossible task.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cm36sqiWAAA9OzN.jpg:large
http://www.newyorker.com/humor/daily-shouts/airbnb-tenant-reviews-of-the-candidates
Secretary Clinton stayed in my spare room in New Hampshire. She seemed nice, and left the space just as she found it. Well, I mean, my Wi-Fi was messed up afterward, and I’m having trouble getting e-mails, but I can’t imagine that has anything to do with her.” —Mitch, Nashua.
- Cooperating with other parties
- ignoring offensive behavior by supporters on social media
- Not staying within limits of acceptable political debate
- not doing what's right for the party & country
Are you suggesting Angela needs to do this to win?
"Fans of Britain First echoed the group’s support [For Andrea Leadsom] the second highest-rated comment on the group’s Facebook post reading: “[Theresa] May will cause civil war - she will let them have sharia law and have them Muslims home for tea. While we find ways of getting our guns etc ready for the off.”
Or is it only mothers that Leadsom thinks this applies to? I think she should be asked if she thinks it applies to fathers as well.
Interestingly, her defence is: "But the mother of three tweeted that the way the interview was reported was "the exact opposite of what I said"." (from BBC)
I wonder if she meant to say / recalls the first clause (the part before the 'but'), and didn't particularly mean to say the last part that contradicts it? A running-your-mouth-off problem. If so, it's a defence, but it's also a reason *not* to make her PM.
It's also why I'd be a terrible MP. My mouth is always two sentences ahead of my brain. (*)
(*) I know you all find that hard to believe ...
But such a candidate almost certainly wouldn't be better, except perhaps presentationally: the infiltration, the policies, the back-story of unsavoury links with edgy characters: none is likely to be much different than now.
But that's to get ahead of outselves. The worst reason not to have acted is that Corbyn doesn't look like a man ready to go and every week that goes by closes the window significantly on the chance of a challenge. Once MPs are on their holidays, it will be far harder for them to plot than when they're in the same place. Sure, they can exchange texts, e-mails and phone calls but there's nothing like being in the same place as everyone else to get a feeling for a mood. Far harder to agree to something when you're in Patagonia if it might end your career if it goes wrong.
FPT I see Andrea Leadsom's defence of her comments is apparently she told the reporter not to interpret them in a certain way. Not that she didn't say them, or mean them.
Which is nice...
What are "the limits of acceptable political debate".
"Please don't report that my statements about Theresa May and kids are about Theresa May and kids. Thanks"
a) Corbyn will not be there, and
b) they said Angela Eagles was announcing her bid next week (presumably dependent on the outcome of these talks, but not stated)
If Eagle stands and, as I would expect, then fails (who in their right mind would vote for her?) Corbyn is cemented in place until 2020 if he wishes. And Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition will be a front for a bunch of Trots.
If people think the Tories have problems, they have really taken their eye off the political ball.
And there's this too. It could be that most voters actually want to see a very right wing Conservative Party competing with a very left wing Labour and are sick of centrist triangulation. The Conservative Right + UKIP are one third of the population, while the Labour Left + Greens, SNP, Plaid are 25-30% of the population.
Speaking of whom: consider this. Mrs L offers a referendum on the restoration of capital punishment. Mrs M feels obliged to match the offer. Polls show a 3:2 majority for the return of the noose. Digging into that, we find that the majority is made up of those who have little or no faith in or respect for the law - those who do trust and respect it are - just - against changing the penalty for murder (and treason).
Like Labour, representative democracy is an idea whose time has gone.
It would still be news that somebody going for the top job was so imprecise in their words and needed to correct them. I mean, you can't exactly get away with "When I said "Let's bomb Russia!", Mister Putin should know I meant the exact opposite. Let's NOT bomb Russia. So will he recall his missiles, pretty please?"
Right for the country according to whom ?
Offensive according to whom ?
Why is cooperating bad ?
Its a "have you stopped beating your wife yet" invitation, if she disagrees she is going to be open to the reply you just made, if she agrees she is allowing her opponent to set terms of debate, or at least letting her opponent complain in public and make hay every time her opponent feels the bounds of acceptable debate have been crossed, or her opponent feels it's not right for the country, or her opponent feels its offensive.
I don't support Leadsom but she should call this out for what it is.
As for the candidate, McDonnell would likely lose fewer seats than Corbyn, but the man in the right place at the right time is Clive Lewis.
I expect we’ll see more of this political naivety coming to the fore during the hustings.
The problem for Labour is democracy. Corbyn won because the membership, old and new, backed him and as he is a quasi-revolutionary figure, he won't walk. The leadership will have to be prized from him and unlike the Conservatives who challenged both Thatcher and IDS, the mechanisms are just not there for a PLP challenge.
What made elements of the PLP act in 1981 was Militant moving to de-select sitting MPs in favour of more pro-Foot individuals and the Party adopting positions on Europe and defence that some MPs simply could not accept.
Trident might then become one of those bellweather issues which helps draw the lines.
That's why we need to know the positions on PR from each of those groupings before a GE. If Labour MPs do split to form another party they would have financial backing and would be well advised to advocate some form of PR. They should also come to electoral pacts with the LibDems and Greens.
Michael Crick reported on Thursday that the party's membership had grown by 128,000 within the last fortnight or so, which rather suggests that Eagle's actions or otherwise could be an irrelevance.
Not ready - and may never be - for PM.
The former might have blown over with a contrite clarification - the latter won't. It's either her or the Times.
The election doesn't need rules, it needs visibility. If people do stupid things, or behave in inappropriate ways, so long as the members see it, they will take it into account.
That would indicate that two thirds of Conservative support in the country was 'right wing'. I don't think that that is correct. I would put it as a minority of the 36%, say around a quarter at 9%. That would give the 'right wingers' 21% not 33%.
Britain Elects @britainelects Jul 6
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 36%
LAB: 32%
UKIP: 12%
LDEM: 9%
(via Survation, phone / 04 - 05 Jul)
We appear to be having a coded discussion at the moment on this forum which in plaintext would seem to read "PB Tories don't trust Tory Party members to make the right choice"
https://www.dropbox.com/s/qv7bz9mbbff965k/Interview extract.mp3?dl=0
I often feel that my fully functioning ovaries give me an edge over other, fallopian-deprived F1 gamblers. As a mother, I have an instinctive understanding of aerodynamics and mechanical grip which single people and childless couples simply lack.
Third practice kicks off at 10am, finishes at 11am, as usual, so I'll try and get something up between 11.30am-12pm, childcare duties permitting.
On-topic: I agree. The PLP, after going to the unexpected trouble of a no confidence vote, appear to have bottled it.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/08/police-record-3000-hate-incidents-weeks-around-referendum?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
The PM has also apologised to the Polish PM for the spate of hate attacks.
But we were told on PB that this was just a media meme? Anyone going to own up to being wrong?
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
#Babygate going to make future Leadsom complaints about media harder. It just highlights her inexperience.
1m
Michael Deacon @MichaelPDeacon
Anagram of the Year award to @Beeestonia, for pointing out that "Andrea Leadsom" is NO LEADER AS MAD
If Leadsom just mentioned May out of the blue she is in trouble, if the preceding questions before the released portion of the transcript were the journalist mentioning that May doesn't have children then that is an entirely different spin on things
https://www.dropbox.com/s/qv7bz9mbbff965k/Interview extract.mp3?dl=0
There is no need to sign up to Dropbox. Just click No thanks, continue to view, then press the Play button...
Anyway, I was told in no uncertain terms that there was no rise, it was just a media meme. Apparently now it's a prime ministerial meme as well
She is a relatively unknown, and whilst other posters may have warmed to her, it's becoming fairly clear that she's not up to the prospective job.
Besides, this website's about political betting (*), and discussion of the way candidates are perceived might inform betting, even through a low signal-to-noise ratio.
(*) And not about trains, cats, planes, and the best champagne for teasing nipples, however it may seem to outside observers.
I see Trident as an expensive piece of pointless willy waving irrelevant in the post cold war world. It is not just the left that opposes it. It is not one to split over, not least because most of the Labour party sees it the same.
Leadsom says the report is disgusting but, since the report is accurate, she's saying her own words were disgusting.
This also feeds into the narrative that Leadsom says things that aren't strictly true. She denies the Times report. And then a recording verifies it.