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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » May beats Leadsom by 32 points in latest YouGov poll

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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,340
    RobD said:

    Isn't there a subtle distinction between access and membership?
    English isn't his first language so I wouldn't read into it too much, as always with Twitter the PM was quite prescient.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,797
    Mortimer said:

    Wow - I'm tilting back to Leadsom if that is the case.

    Would unleash tremendous economic growth and allow employees to choose and the market to compensate rather than the government.
    No it wouldn't. It would just potentially lower pay for some people.

    Superficially its a good idea but (as with everything Leadsom seems to say) once you look into it in any detail the flaws rapidly override the original good idea...
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Jobabob said:

    With the exception of unfair dismissal I agree with it.
    And I don't see it being hugely offputting to most Tory members to be honest.
    On reddit a Leadsom blog post from 2008 saying marriage was a good thing was highlighted as a reason she was unacceptable.

    http://www.andrealeadsom.com/working-for-you/andrea's-blog/marriage-is-key-to-the-safety-of-our-society/148

    When people who don't like her, highlight things about her that they don't like, it's not going to persuade people who share her values.
    As I said yesterday, the objection to her is nothing to do with any of her actions or views except one. She voted Leave. As such Remainers have gone deranged over her. They don't seem to understand the referendum is over and they lost. It is time to move on.
    No. The eurosceptics would certainly not have moved on if the result was reversed. We are not going to roll over while a bunch of liars destroy our country and economy on a false prospectus.
    Are you talking about Gordon Brown's government? You don't have to move on but you should accept the result like a decent human being.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    At least it should be settled if Remainers just accepted their loss with good grace rather than engaging in furious campaigns against every Leave supporting candidate.

    @DPJHodges: Lot of Outers tweeting "you lost, get over it". Sorry. You won. And now we're going to make you take responsibility for the consequences.

    I am entirely comfortable with Leave winning. In the words of one prominent Brexiteer, "Suck it up"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,726
    RobD said:

    No minimum wage for less than 3 employees? Surely we'd see a splintering of vast numbers of businesses into complex networks of connected companies each with 2 employees? Bonkers.

    Edit: In those parts of economy where minimum wage is an issue e.g. retail, hospitality etc
    Leave means a bonfire of workers rights by slavering right wingers?

    Nah, just more Project Fear.
    I suppose you feel we have a God-given right to live high on the hog in perpetuity whilst the Chinese and Indians are sweating for their 6p an hour. And that will somehow work.
    What a compelling reason to do away with things like pensions and maternity leave!
    Indeed and as the Chinese and Indian middle-class continue to grow they will demand such rights too
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,262
    Jobabob said:

    With the exception of unfair dismissal I agree with it.
    And I don't see it being hugely offputting to most Tory members to be honest.
    On reddit a Leadsom blog post from 2008 saying marriage was a good thing was highlighted as a reason she was unacceptable.

    http://www.andrealeadsom.com/working-for-you/andrea's-blog/marriage-is-key-to-the-safety-of-our-society/148

    When people who don't like her, highlight things about her that they don't like, it's not going to persuade people who share her values.
    As I said yesterday, the objection to her is nothing to do with any of her actions or views except one. She voted Leave. As such Remainers have gone deranged over her. They don't seem to understand the referendum is over and they lost. It is time to move on.
    No. The eurosceptics would certainly not have moved on if the result was reversed. We are not going to roll over while a bunch of liars destroy our country and economy on a false prospectus.
    Continuing to campaign for something you believe in is totally different from refusing to accept a democratic result. By all means campaign to go back into the EU once we've left, if you think anyone's going to give half a crap. But have the good taste to realise YOU LOST.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,340

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    With the exception of unfair dismissal I agree with it.
    And I don't see it being hugely offputting to most Tory members to be honest.
    Then you don't know Tory members very well. One of the most popular policies has been the introduction of the national living wage.
    Didn't conservatives vote against the minimum wage?
    In 1998.
    I know, they have principles and if you don't like them........

    You only have to read this site, the conservative party believes in nothing. Clear the deficit? We've changed our mind. Reduce immigration? Immigration is needed. Minimum wages? Nah, we can beat that with the living wage.
    No, the people who didn't like those policies are dead or have defected to UKIP. The last major split in the membership and among MPs was the EU and now that's settled as well.
    At least it should be settled if Remainers just accepted their loss with good grace rather than engaging in furious campaigns against every Leave supporting candidate.
    50% of members who voted to leave are supporting a "remain" candidate. It's only you die hards who can't let go of yesterday's fight. We've won. We're leaving the EU and now we need to pick the best person to be PM, not use some twisted logic to pick an inexperienced person who has some pretty questionable policy positions.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    I'm reading William Hague's article and some sentences ("There is no way of reassuring these companies about continued access to the European single market on the same terms, since that will almost certainly be incompatible with the control of migration") seem fairly conclusive: we're not going to be in EFTA/EEA. Am I correct in this interpretation? If so, I am disappointed.

    The government should immediately cut the number of immigration officers at Heathrow in the EU line by 90% so UK citizens can see what they have to look forward to abroad in the event of a deal that doesn't involve EEA. That might change a few minds.


    Utterly insane to cause ourselves so much damage and inconvenience due to the backward views of a minority.
    I take it you've never visited the US!
    I commonly use the "all passports lane" at UK hubs........it's quicker.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,340
    Sandpit said:

    Everyone's trying to pretend that "Free movement of people" is the status quo, which would be compulsory to retain EFTA membership. In fact, under EFTA we can discriminate on benefits, reducing massively the pull factors driving unskilled immigration to the UK. To some, this is still FoM and evil, but to many more it represents a reasonable compromise.
    The EEA free movement wording is identical to the EU free movement wording. If we want to discriminate on benefits we need to do it by changing eligibility rules over here and making benefits payable on a contributory basis.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    But have the good taste to realise YOU LOST.

    Remainers are merely biding their time until the Brexiteers realise just how badly they have lost.

    Once the high of the result wears off, the resulting hangover is going to be brutal
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Great to see Farage outflanking May this morning. Her comments are not suitable for a potential Prime Minister and show that despite her front bench experience she has trouble engaging her brain before speaking. There are definitely chinks in her armour for Leadsom to exploit should she make the final 2.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Fascinating Newsnight piece on UKIP

    I wonder if they could come second in 2020. Be the SNP of England and Wales.

    This is their moment. If they select the right leader, with working class appeal, and working-class-friendly policies, they could supplant Labour.

    I think

    Completely disagree. Labour are constitutionally incapable of following their huka Umunna?
    Labour now might as well give up on white working class anti immigration Leave voters, they are lost for them as such voters are lost for the Democrats in the US and have been since Bill Clinton's minorities and centrist voters who
    SNIP

    The Democrats' strategy is not viable in a country which has far fewer ethnic minorities than the US, and with an electoral system which punishes parties that disproportionately piles up votes in big cities.
    No they are not, 63% of Labour voters voted Remain and the white working class Leave voters would just go to UKIP not the Tories if they put immigration above all. Seats like Nuneaton and Cannock Chase are not going to be won back by Labour now, probably ever, seats like Enfield Southgate and Worcester where Remain won or Leave won narrowly are much better target seats for Labour if they are to win back power.

    Around 10% of the population is ethnic minority now, more in Labour seats or target seats and growing. It is white middle class suburban graduates who Labour should be aiming for now, they are the types of voters who voted for Blair then went for Cameron but could be won back under the right leader and are growing as a percentage of the population, the white working class are shrinking as a percentage of the population. Labour will only win them over by out Kippering the Kippers which will only lose them the suburban middle classes, the liberal left and ethnic minorities, they are on a hiding to nothing with them
    I find it hard to envisage a path to victory for Labour that doesn't run through seats like Cannock Chase, Great Yarmouth, Nuneaton, or the Thames Estuary. They'd have to make enormous inroads into historic Conservative territory to compensate.
    Labour can win if they win suburban seats like Reading, Enfield Southgate and Worcester and Battersea even if they lose seats like Nuneaton and Great Yarmouth, it would not be a Blair style landslide but it would be a win
    Indeed so. That would make a good thread...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,262
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    With the exception of unfair dismissal I agree with it.
    And I don't see it being hugely offputting to most Tory members to be honest.
    Then you don't know Tory members very well. One of the most popular policies has been the introduction of the national living wage.
    Didn't conservatives vote against the minimum wage?
    In 1998.
    I know, they have principles and if you don't like them........

    You only have to read this site, the conservative party believes in nothing. Clear the deficit? We've changed our mind. Reduce immigration? Immigration is needed. Minimum wages? Nah, we can beat that with the living wage.
    No, the people who didn't like those policies are dead or have defected to UKIP. The last major split in the membership and among MPs was the EU and now that's settled as well.
    At least it should be settled if Remainers just accepted their loss with good grace rather than engaging in furious campaigns against every Leave supporting candidate.
    50% of members who voted to leave are supporting a "remain" candidate. It's only you die hards who can't let go of yesterday's fight. We've won. We're leaving the EU and now we need to pick the best person to be PM, not use some twisted logic to pick an inexperienced person who has some pretty questionable policy positions.
    In preference to a proven failure, yes.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161
    Moses_ said:

    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    I'm reading William Hague's article and some sentences ("There is no way of reassuring these companies about continued access to the European single market on the same terms, since that will almost certainly be incompatible with the control of migration") seem fairly conclusive: we're not going to be in EFTA/EEA. Am I correct in this interpretation? If so, I am disappointed.

    The government should immediately cut the number of immigration officers at Heathrow in the EU line by 90% so UK citizens can see what they have to look forward to abroad in the event of a deal that doesn't involve EEA. That might change a few minds.


    Utterly insane to cause ourselves so much damage and inconvenience due to the backward views of a minority.
    I take it you've never visited the US!
    I commonly use the "all passports lane" at UK hubs........it's quicker.
    The ePassport lane is by far the quickest!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SamCoatesTimes: More than 7 out of 10 Tory members back Theresa May tying future of EU migrants in UK to future of British EU expats https://t.co/5WkKYvVXjq
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786

    Mr. Meeks, worth noting lots of businessmen simply won't hire women who might be of child-rearing age due to the potential cost. They're not allowed to ask, so they just don't hire them.

    I'm not in favour of stripping all rights, but the very generous maternity leave harms women's jobs prospects because it adds a substantial potential cost to hiring them.

    Incidentally, what time do we get the result of today's vote in?

    A better solution would be to retain the rights but increase Governemnt support for small firms with the costs of maternity pay and similar benefits.
    It's not the direct cost of maternity pay which is the real issue. It's the loss of that trained member of staff for the period, that can't be easily replaced in a small business.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    Jobabob said:

    With the exception of unfair dismissal I agree with it.
    And I don't see it being hugely offputting to most Tory members to be honest.
    On reddit a Leadsom blog post from 2008 saying marriage was a good thing was highlighted as a reason she was unacceptable.

    http://www.andrealeadsom.com/working-for-you/andrea's-blog/marriage-is-key-to-the-safety-of-our-society/148

    When people who don't like her, highlight things about her that they don't like, it's not going to persuade people who share her values.
    As I said yesterday, the objection to her is nothing to do with any of her actions or views except one. She voted Leave. As such Remainers have gone deranged over her. They don't seem to understand the referendum is over and they lost. It is time to move on.
    No. The eurosceptics would certainly not have moved on if the result was reversed. We are not going to roll over while a bunch of liars destroy our country and economy on a false prospectus.
    Do you truly believe that only EU membership stands between the destruction of our country and our economy? How did we prosper for so long without it?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Scott_P said:

    But have the good taste to realise YOU LOST.

    Remainers are merely biding their time until the Brexiteers realise just how badly they have lost.

    Once the high of the result wears off, the resulting hangover is going to be brutal
    Quite right.
  • Scott_P said:

    At least it should be settled if Remainers just accepted their loss with good grace rather than engaging in furious campaigns against every Leave supporting candidate.

    @DPJHodges: Lot of Outers tweeting "you lost, get over it". Sorry. You won. And now we're going to make you take responsibility for the consequences.

    I am entirely comfortable with Leave winning. In the words of one prominent Brexiteer, "Suck it up"
    We are doing our best to take responsibility, but you lot are engaging in an assassination campaign against the various candidates we are putting forward for managing it. If George Osborne's manouvers and briefings means a Remainer gets the job, the responsibility will no longer lie with Leavers.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,245

    A smart starting point to negotiations for them. Cameron could learn a thing or two.
    Its hogwash as its a known that the UK will not accept it. That's why we left FFS.
    5% tariffs or unlimited immigration? We really have answered that question haven't we?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    At least it should be settled if Remainers just accepted their loss with good grace rather than engaging in furious campaigns against every Leave supporting candidate.

    @DPJHodges: Lot of Outers tweeting "you lost, get over it". Sorry. You won. And now we're going to make you take responsibility for the consequences.

    I am entirely comfortable with Leave winning. In the words of one prominent Brexiteer, "Suck it up"
    Entirely comfortable, and yet you act like Hiroo Onoda :lol:
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,262
    Scott_P said:

    But have the good taste to realise YOU LOST.

    Remainers are merely biding their time until the Brexiteers realise just how badly they have lost.

    Once the high of the result wears off, the resulting hangover is going to be brutal
    Well let's hope the troll budget is spared - it would be a shame not to hear your take on it all.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    With the exception of unfair dismissal I agree with it.
    And I don't see it being hugely offputting to most Tory members to be honest.
    Then you don't know Tory members very well. One of the most popular policies has been the introduction of the national living wage.
    Didn't conservatives vote against the minimum wage?
    In 1998.
    I know, they have principles and if you don't like them........

    You only have to read this site, the conservative party believes in nothing. Clear the deficit? We've changed our mind. Reduce immigration? Immigration is needed. Minimum wages? Nah, we can beat that with the living wage.
    No, the people who didn't like those policies are dead or have defected to UKIP. The last major split in the membership and among MPs was the EU and now that's settled as well.
    Which policies? Osborne only said it the other day
  • eekeek Posts: 28,797
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Small businesses who were exempted from the minimum wage would either employ the unemployable or spend their entire time training replacements as their staff moved on to better opportunities. In reality they would have to match the going rate once they were confident that having the extra pair of hands was going to pay. At the margins it would increase employment and I think some removal of the regulatory burden would be a good idea.

    Nothing to do with health and safety of course and probably not the working time directive or unfair dismissal but it is the sort of flexibility we can take advantage of when we are out.

    If the proposal had come from say, the Adam Smith Institute, or Institute of Economic Affairs, rather than Andrea Ledsom, I expect it would be more sympathetically received in this parish.
    Yes because then it would have been thought out with the immediately obvious flaws already covered and fixed. Instead its a harebrained scheme with obvious issues and added tax avoidance opportunities.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295
    edited July 2016

    Jobabob said:

    IanB2 said:



    And if we are talking new parties then we are not just talking MPs. At every level of government, elected representatives would need to make a choice, and there are tons of labour controlled councils where the process would be both traumatic and throw up all sorts of comsequences in terms of which party(ies) are in charge. Plus of course higher profile people in the devolved parliaments, House of Lords, MEPs etc. would have the same choice. It could be chaotic, and will/would certainly be interesting!

    Anyone involved with managing PB isn't going to get a break any time soon...

    Those old enough to remember the SDP split know that party splits are horrible because they split old friendships which have been built up from years or even decades of working in a common cause - in some cases they even end marriages.

    Successful party splits are an extreme rarity in Britain or any country on the planet. What is more common is for a different party gradually to supplant an established one, as Labour edged the Liberals aside in Britain and successive Italian centre-left parties have inched out the former Communists. If a new Labour election led to a triumph for Corbyn, I can see some MPs drifting over to the LibDems and helping to shift them into a more consistently centre-left role, though I think others would accept it or quietly retire. If it resulted in a massive repudiation of Corbyn, I think most of the newer members would retreat into apathy.
    An easier solution would be for Corbyn to do the honourable thing and resign. There is no constitutional basis for his remaining in post and his doing so is an act of gross narcissism that is making a mockery of our parliamentary democracy.

    Rather than writing posts telling elected representatives to "STFU" you should engage with the clear fact that Corbyn cannot command the authority of 85% of his own MPs.

    It really is that simple.
    Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere-get used to it.
    If the MPs were demonstrably more in touch with Labour's voters than the leadership, it would indeed be easy (well, easier) and probably done by now, despite the leadership's backing from the members. Labour's problem is that neither the position of the leadership nor of the so-called Blairites really has strong voter appeal and hence neither side can bring the leverage of 'what the people want' to bear. Whereas in the 1990s this was all the actual Blairites needed to wrest control of the party back from the left.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,726
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    No minimum wage for less than 3 employees? Surely we'd see a splintering of vast numbers of businesses into complex networks of connected companies each with 2 employees? Bonkers.

    Edit: In those parts of economy where minimum wage is an issue e.g. retail, hospitality etc
    Leave means a bonfire of workers rights by slavering right wingers?

    Nah, just more Project Fear.
    I suppose you feel we have a God-given right to live high on the hog in perpetuity whilst the Chinese and Indians are sweating for their 6p an hour. And that will somehow work.
    What a compelling reason to do away with things like pensions and maternity leave!
    Indeed and as the Chinese and Indian middle-class continue to grow they will demand such rights too
    China in fact introduced a minimum income only a few years ago
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,614

    RobD said:

    No minimum wage for less than 3 employees? Surely we'd see a splintering of vast numbers of businesses into complex networks of connected companies each with 2 employees? Bonkers.

    Edit: In those parts of economy where minimum wage is an issue e.g. retail, hospitality etc
    It would be interesting to see someone try and run a hotel, restaurant, or even corner shop, on two employees.
    You'd have each person employed by their own separate company, avoiding all those regulations like minimum wage or maternity.
    I think self-employment would become the norm, with horrible fine print. It already is in some sectors.
    Yes, and in sectors you wouldn't think of either. For example pilots flying 737s for a certain large Irish operator.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Jobabob said:

    IanB2 said:



    And if we are talking new parties then we are not just talking MPs. At every level of government, elected representatives would need to make a choice, and there are tons of labour controlled councils where the process would be both traumatic and throw up all sorts of comsequences in terms of which party(ies) are in charge. Plus of course higher profile people in the devolved parliaments, House of Lords, MEPs etc. would have the same choice. It could be chaotic, and will/would certainly be interesting!

    Anyone involved with managing PB isn't going to get a break any time soon...

    Those old enough to remember the SDP split know that party splits are horrible because they split old friendships which have been built up from years or even decades of working in a common cause - in some cases they even end marriages. It's not what you think of the national leaders that's so hard, it's turning your back on Sally, who is a brilliant councillor and someone you've worked with in four successive elections but has come to a different conclusion to you. Add to that the venom that inevitably arises (look how Southam and I wrestle with staying friendly, and we don't even know each other) and the default is usually to stick with your original party, say as little as possible, and hope the mess goes away.

    Successful party splits are an extreme rarity in Britain or any country on the planet. What is more common is for a different party gradually to supplant an established one, as Labour edged the Liberals aside in Britain and successive Italian centre-left parties have inched out the former Communists. If a new Labour election led to a triumph for Corbyn, I can see some MPs drifting over to the LibDems and helping to shift them into a more consistently centre-left role, though I think others would accept it or quietly retire. If it resulted in a massive repudiation of Corbyn, I think most of the newer members would retreat into apathy.
    An easier solution would be for Corbyn to do the honourable thing and resign. There is no constitutional basis for his remaining in post and his doing so is an act of gross narcissism that is making a mockery of our parliamentary democracy.

    Rather than writing posts telling elected representatives to "STFU" you should engage with the clear fact that Corbyn cannot command the authority of 85% of his own MPs.

    It really is that simple.
    Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere-get used to it.
    Your saying that is a statement of fact. But it doesn't in any way undermine my argument. The shouty "we're going nowhere" Corbynistas – destroying their party and disgracing their country.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    With the exception of unfair dismissal I agree with it.
    And I don't see it being hugely offputting to most Tory members to be honest.
    Then you don't know Tory members very well. One of the most popular policies has been the introduction of the national living wage.
    Didn't conservatives vote against the minimum wage?
    In 1998.
    I know, they have principles and if you don't like them........

    You only have to read this site, the conservative party believes in nothing. Clear the deficit? We've changed our mind. Reduce immigration? Immigration is needed. Minimum wages? Nah, we can beat that with the living wage.
    No, the people who didn't like those policies are dead or have defected to UKIP. The last major split in the membership and among MPs was the EU and now that's settled as well.
    At least it should be settled if Remainers just accepted their loss with good grace rather than engaging in furious campaigns against every Leave supporting candidate.
    50% of members who voted to leave are supporting a "remain" candidate. It's only you die hards who can't let go of yesterday's fight. We've won. We're leaving the EU and now we need to pick the best person to be PM, not use some twisted logic to pick an inexperienced person who has some pretty questionable policy positions.
    I am very happy for a Remainer to get the PMship if necessary. What I am not happy with is Remainers frothing at the mouth over every Leave candidate over things as silly as her supporting marriage or going to church. Or Remainers reacting with glee over every potential difficulty we face as a country. The desire to see the country struggle is downright unpatriotic.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,340

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    With the exception of unfair dismissal I agree with it.
    And I don't see it being hugely offputting to most Tory members to be honest.
    Then you don't know Tory members very well. One of the most popular policies has been the introduction of the national living wage.
    Didn't conservatives vote against the minimum wage?
    In 1998.
    I know, they have principles and if you don't like them........

    You only have to read this site, the conservative party believes in nothing. Clear the deficit? We've changed our mind. Reduce immigration? Immigration is needed. Minimum wages? Nah, we can beat that with the living wage.
    No, the people who didn't like those policies are dead or have defected to UKIP. The last major split in the membership and among MPs was the EU and now that's settled as well.
    Which policies? Osborne only said it the other day
    Opposition to the minimum wage for one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,726
    Jobabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Fascinating Newsnight piece on UKIP

    I wonder if they could come second in 2020. Be the SNP of England and Wales.

    This is their moment. If they select the right leader, with working class appeal, and working-class-friendly policies, they could supplant Labour.

    I think

    Completely disagree. Labour are constitutionally incapable of following their huka Umunna?
    Labour now might as well give up on white working class anti immigration Leave voters, they are lost for them as such voters are lost for the Democrats in the US and have been since Bill Clinton's minorities and centrist voters who
    SNIP

    The Democrats' strategy is not viable in a country which has far fewer ethnic minorities than the US, and with an electoral system which punishes parties that disproportionately piles up votes in big cities.
    No they are not, 63% of Labour voters voted Remain and the white working class Leave voters would just go to UKIP not the Tories if they put immigration above all. Seats like Nuneaton and Cannock Chase are not going to be won back by Labour now, probably ever, seats like Enfield Southgate and Worcester where Remain won or Leave won narrowly are much better target seats for Labour if they are to win back power.

    Around 10% of the population is ethnic
    I find it hard to envisage a path to victory for Labour that doesn't run through seats like Cannock Chase, Great Yarmouth, Nuneaton, or the Thames Estuary. They'd have to make enormous inroads into historic Conservative territory to compensate.
    Labour can win if they win suburban seats like Reading, Enfield Southgate and Worcester and Battersea even if they lose seats like Nuneaton and Great Yarmouth, it would not be a Blair style landslide but it would be a win
    Indeed so. That would make a good thread...
    Yes, a thread about whether Labour is now losing staunch Leave territory but could potentially gain in staunch Remain territory would be interesting, for me the key to victory for Labour is narrow Leave territory which mirrors the nation as a whole
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited July 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    With the exception of unfair dismissal I agree with it.
    And I don't see it being hugely offputting to most Tory members to be honest.
    On reddit a Leadsom blog post from 2008 saying marriage was a good thing was highlighted as a reason she was unacceptable.

    http://www.andrealeadsom.com/working-for-you/andrea's-blog/marriage-is-key-to-the-safety-of-our-society/148

    When people who don't like her, highlight things about her that they don't like, it's not going to persuade people who share her values.
    As I said yesterday, the objection to her is nothing to do with any of her actions or views except one. She voted Leave. As such Remainers have gone deranged over her. They don't seem to understand the referendum is over and they lost. It is time to move on.
    No. The eurosceptics would certainly not have moved on if the result was reversed. We are not going to roll over while a bunch of liars destroy our country and economy on a false prospectus.
    Do you truly believe that only EU membership stands between the destruction of our country and our economy? How did we prosper for so long without it?
    Something to do with having an empire? By the time that was gone in the early-70s our economy was a basket case.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    A smart starting point to negotiations for them. Cameron could learn a thing or two.
    Tusk is Polish. He would be lynched if he did not favour FOM.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,245
    Scott_P said:

    But have the good taste to realise YOU LOST.

    Remainers are merely biding their time until the Brexiteers realise just how badly they have lost.

    Once the high of the result wears off, the resulting hangover is going to be brutal
    That really is the wrong mindset. What we all need to do now on both sides of the question is focus on making leave work. There is plenty to play for and cases can be made for retaining significant parts of the benefits we had when in but the decision has been made and standing on the sidelines saying I told you so achieves nothing.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Mr. Meeks, worth noting lots of businessmen simply won't hire women who might be of child-rearing age due to the potential cost. They're not allowed to ask, so they just don't hire them.

    I'm not in favour of stripping all rights, but the very generous maternity leave harms women's jobs prospects because it adds a substantial potential cost to hiring them.

    Incidentally, what time do we get the result of today's vote in?

    A better solution would be to retain the rights but increase Governemnt support for small firms with the costs of maternity pay and similar benefits.
    It's not the direct cost of maternity pay which is the real issue. It's the loss of that trained member of staff for the period, that can't be easily replaced in a small business.
    And the indefinite period of time they'll be away for, and their choice to leave permanently at the end of many months of uncertainty. It's a very one-sided relationship.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    We are doing our best to take responsibility, but you lot are engaging in an assassination campaign against the various candidates we are putting forward for managing it. If George Osborne's manouvers and briefings means a Remainer gets the job, the responsibility will no longer lie with Leavers.

    No

    As has been repeatedly stated, we are not selecting a Minister for Brexit, we are selecting a PM.

    Brexit will be handled by a Minster for Brexit appointed by that PM, without question a prominent Brexiteer. If they fuck it up, they own it.

    Meanwhile the PM has other things to deal with, like Trident
  • Jobabob said:

    Scott_P said:

    But have the good taste to realise YOU LOST.

    Remainers are merely biding their time until the Brexiteers realise just how badly they have lost.

    Once the high of the result wears off, the resulting hangover is going to be brutal
    Quite right.
    And this just shows the juvenility of it all. Rather than work to improve the country you are sitting on the sidelines sniping. I have had people on project teams at work like this, amd they are always the most toxic employees. I always make a point of trying to tease out if such an attitude exists at interview where possible.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    With the exception of unfair dismissal I agree with it.
    And I don't see it being hugely offputting to most Tory members to be honest.
    Then you don't know Tory members very well. One of the most popular policies has been the introduction of the national living wage.
    Didn't conservatives vote against the minimum wage?
    In 1998.
    I know, they have principles and if you don't like them........

    You only have to read this site, the conservative party believes in nothing. Clear the deficit? We've changed our mind. Reduce immigration? Immigration is needed. Minimum wages? Nah, we can beat that with the living wage.
    No, the people who didn't like those policies are dead or have defected to UKIP. The last major split in the membership and among MPs was the EU and now that's settled as well.
    Which policies? Osborne only said it the other day
    Opposition to the minimum wage for one.
    A lot of people worried about the minimum wage before it was introduced. I was one of them. I was wrong. It's been quite helpful. However, nothing is ever an unalloyed good.

    In this neck of the woods there are skilled jobs and minimum wage jobs. There is almost nothing in between - we've lost the old continuum.

    Lidl, who pay £8-9.20 p/h (mainly because their shift pattern is quite punishing) are the only notable exception I think of.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,070
    Morning all :)

    Tusk's line is entirely understandable because if the EU gives ground to the UK on this, it will have to give ground to other countries on other parts of the Four Freedoms. If said Freedoms are not inviolate, they count for nothing and nor indeed does the Single Market.

    I'm opposed to the Single Market (SM) - it has a deceptively beguiling name and it sounds so nice. It works very well for some areas and some people but not for everyone everywhere. The depopulation of Lithuania and parts of Poland and the economic devastation of southern Europe can be laid at the door of the SM.

    For me, it encapsulates the philosophical difference at the heart of the EU Referendum - for REMAIN, it was all about the economics and individual personal prosperity. REMAIN seemed not only to guarantee that but its principal message was LEAVE would destroy it. You would be poorer if you voted LEAVE - your lifestyle will suffer, your future economic prospects would suffer as your main asset (your house) would no longer rise in value etc, etc.

    For me, it's about the people - the 16 members of a single Romanian family who come over here, find nowhere to live and work and finish up sleeping in three cars under a flyover because they are ineligible for help because we want to be seen to be "tough" (thank you, our next Prime Minister for that act of politically-driven callousness) or the two Lithuanian men who would rather sleep under the Canning Town flyover than take advantage of a free flight home.

    We cannot stop them coming into the country but once they are here, if their luck runs out, they are left to effectively sleep rough. This is perverse and absurd. IF there was a job and a place to live for everyone who wanted to come, if there were schools and doctors for everyone and our transport system had unlimited capacity, I'd be a supporter of FoM.

    But there aren't, it doesn't and therefore we can't. By all means, welcome those who are here to work, have a place to live and by all means let's lure the best, the brightest and those professions we need and that can be planned for. FoM throws planning out the window - it has made labour cheap because people are cheap. Why invest in new technology to improve your business when you can simply hire 20 people off the street ?

    People will always go to the money - it was true when the agricultural workers came off the land to work in the factories - it brings people from the north of England, Wales, Scotland and Ulster to London and the south east but there is a cost. A border at least gives us the chance to ensure we can plan but for me (and I realise this won't be a popular view) internationalism requires us to want to improve all areas of Europe meaning investment in Lithuania and elsewhere to keep the people there, working, earning and living to improve their own communities.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Brom said:

    Great to see Farage outflanking May this morning. Her comments are not suitable for a potential Prime Minister and show that despite her front bench experience she has trouble engaging her brain before speaking. There are definitely chinks in her armour for Leadsom to exploit should she make the final 2.

    Indeed.

    The retired (again) UKIP leader has the next PM quacking in her leopard pattern shoes. NOT.

    Sometimes even the most tortured of PBers give the word delusional new meaning. Next in a flanking movement worthy of a Michael Gove application to the League of Decency, Farage proposes a Commons vote of no confidence be tabled by his single MP.

    Chortle ....
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    John_M said:

    On the Tusk quote: doesn't South Korea have access to the single market? If so, I'd be surprised if it had agreed freedom of movement.

    As ever, they're using the shorthand 'access' when they mean 'tariff free access'. The world (sanctions regimes excepted) has 'access' to the EU market. The EU doesn't have FTAs with the USA, China or Japan (before Robert jumps all over me, bar anything agreed under the general provisions of GATT and WIPO).

    WTO rules means that if we don't get some kind of bespoke deal on the single market, we'll be trading under 'Most Favoured Nation' rules.

    The issue there isn't so much the tariff levels (which vary from 3.6% to 12%) - those can be managed (if we can call it that) by a weaker pound. It's the Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBTs) that cause issues. They can put your costs up to 25% or more. Not good.

    There's even some suggestion that we'd have to apply to join the WTO (it only formed in 1992). I have no idea on whether that's well founded or more Internet bullshittery.
    Hmm, I think that's internet bullshittery. From the WTO website:

    This page gathers information on the United Kingdom's participation in the WTO. The United Kingdom has been a WTO member since 1 January 1995 and a member of GATT since 1 January 1948. It is a member State of the European Union (more info). All EU member States are WTO members, as is the EU (until 30 November 2009 known officially in the WTO as the European Communities for legal reasons) in its own right.

    If it was the case that we would have to rejoin BSE would have surely used it in the campaign.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    John_M said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    With the exception of unfair dismissal I agree with it.
    And I don't see it being hugely offputting to most Tory members to be honest.
    Then you don't know Tory members very well. One of the most popular policies has been the introduction of the national living wage.
    Didn't conservatives vote against the minimum wage?
    In 1998.
    I know, they have principles and if you don't like them........

    You only have to read this site, the conservative party believes in nothing. Clear the deficit? We've changed our mind. Reduce immigration? Immigration is needed. Minimum wages? Nah, we can beat that with the living wage.
    No, the people who didn't like those policies are dead or have defected to UKIP. The last major split in the membership and among MPs was the EU and now that's settled as well.
    Which policies? Osborne only said it the other day
    Opposition to the minimum wage for one.
    A lot of people worried about the minimum wage before it was introduced. I was one of them. I was wrong. It's been quite helpful. However, nothing is ever an unalloyed good.

    In this neck of the woods there are skilled jobs and minimum wage jobs. There is almost nothing in between - we've lost the old continuum.

    Lidl, who pay £8-9.20 p/h (mainly because their shift pattern is quite punishing) are the only notable exception I think of.
    The minimum wage has become the de facto maximum wage benchmark in a lot of low skilled occupations.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    With the exception of unfair dismissal I agree with it.
    And I don't see it being hugely offputting to most Tory members to be honest.
    On reddit a Leadsom blog post from 2008 saying marriage was a good thing was highlighted as a reason she was unacceptable.

    http://www.andrealeadsom.com/working-for-you/andrea's-blog/marriage-is-key-to-the-safety-of-our-society/148

    When people who don't like her, highlight things about her that they don't like, it's not going to persuade people who share her values.
    As I said yesterday, the objection to her is nothing to do with any of her actions or views except one. She voted Leave. As such Remainers have gone deranged over her. They don't seem to understand the referendum is over and they lost. It is time to move on.
    No. The eurosceptics would certainly not have moved on if the result was reversed. We are not going to roll over while a bunch of liars destroy our country and economy on a false prospectus.
    Do you truly believe that only EU membership stands between the destruction of our country and our economy? How did we prosper for so long without it?
    Something to do with having an empire? By the time that was gone in the early-70s our economy was a basket case.
    Indeed. A little research on our original decision to stand aside and the subsequent change of view might be instructive here.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:

    At least it should be settled if Remainers just accepted their loss with good grace rather than engaging in furious campaigns against every Leave supporting candidate.

    @DPJHodges: Lot of Outers tweeting "you lost, get over it". Sorry. You won. And now we're going to make you take responsibility for the consequences.

    I am entirely comfortable with Leave winning. In the words of one prominent Brexiteer, "Suck it up"
    This shows one of the reasons Remain lost -- the great and the good are largely insulated from the economic or social consequences of Brexit or, for that matter, any other changes of the last couple of decades. At worst for them, it is swings and roundabouts.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Jobabob said:

    Scott_P said:

    But have the good taste to realise YOU LOST.

    Remainers are merely biding their time until the Brexiteers realise just how badly they have lost.

    Once the high of the result wears off, the resulting hangover is going to be brutal
    Quite right.
    Yes, infantile spite is the solution to all complex political problems.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. B2, the global economic situation today is quite different to that of the 1960s/1970s.

    Rome went from the Golden Age of Imperial Rome to the Crisis of the Third Century in a similar time frame.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    With the exception of unfair dismissal I agree with it.
    And I don't see it being hugely offputting to most Tory members to be honest.
    On reddit a Leadsom blog post from 2008 saying marriage was a good thing was highlighted as a reason she was unacceptable.

    http://www.andrealeadsom.com/working-for-you/andrea's-blog/marriage-is-key-to-the-safety-of-our-society/148

    When people who don't like her, highlight things about her that they don't like, it's not going to persuade people who share her values.
    As I said yesterday, the objection to her is nothing to do with any of her actions or views except one. She voted Leave. As such Remainers have gone deranged over her. They don't seem to understand the referendum is over and they lost. It is time to move on.
    No. The eurosceptics would certainly not have moved on if the result was reversed. We are not going to roll over while a bunch of liars destroy our country and economy on a false prospectus.
    Do you truly believe that only EU membership stands between the destruction of our country and our economy? How did we prosper for so long without it?
    Something to do with having an empire? By the time that was gone in the early-70s our economy was a basket case.
    Nothing to do with the Empire. We conveniently forget how exsanguinated the UK was after WWII. We were broke. We'd run out of manpower. We had rationing until 1954. We paid off the last of our Anglo-American war loans in 2006.

    We had terrible industrial relations, obsolescent factories (part of the war dividend for Germany and Japan was that their industrial areas were flattened. They got a do-over).

    You only have to look at the economic records of the original EU9 to see that the EEC has always been a mixed blessing. The UK was lucky in that we took advantage of the Information Revolution, liberalised our employment laws and leveraged the City.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ishmael_X said:

    Yes, infantile spite is the solution to all complex political problems.

    Which is why it makes sense to elect as Prime Minister of the country someone who is a very recent convert to the latest cause, but has shown the passion of a the zealot. Probably.

    Oh, wait...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    RobD said:

    Moses_ said:

    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    I'm reading William Hague's article and some sentences ("There is no way of reassuring these companies about continued access to the European single market on the same terms, since that will almost certainly be incompatible with the control of migration") seem fairly conclusive: we're not going to be in EFTA/EEA. Am I correct in this interpretation? If so, I am disappointed.

    The government should immediately cut the number of immigration officers at Heathrow in the EU line by 90% so UK citizens can see what they have to look forward to abroad in the event of a deal that doesn't involve EEA. That might change a few minds.


    Utterly insane to cause ourselves so much damage and inconvenience due to the backward views of a minority.
    I take it you've never visited the US!
    I commonly use the "all passports lane" at UK hubs........it's quicker.
    The ePassport lane is by far the quickest!
    not at Gatwick it isn't..
  • eekeek Posts: 28,797
    PlatoSaid said:

    John_M said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    With the exception of unfair dismissal I agree with it.
    And I don't see it being hugely offputting to most Tory members to be honest.
    Then you don't know Tory members very well. One of the most popular policies has been the introduction of the national living wage.
    Didn't conservatives vote against the minimum wage?
    In 1998.
    I know, they have principles and if you don't like them........

    You only have to read this site, the conservative party believes in nothing. Clear the deficit? We've changed our mind. Reduce immigration? Immigration is needed. Minimum wages? Nah, we can beat that with the living wage.
    No, the people who didn't like those policies are dead or have defected to UKIP. The last major split in the membership and among MPs was the EU and now that's settled as well.
    Which policies? Osborne only said it the other day
    Opposition to the minimum wage for one.
    A lot of people worried about the minimum wage before it was introduced. I was one of them. I was wrong. It's been quite helpful. However, nothing is ever an unalloyed good.

    In this neck of the woods there are skilled jobs and minimum wage jobs. There is almost nothing in between - we've lost the old continuum.

    Lidl, who pay £8-9.20 p/h (mainly because their shift pattern is quite punishing) are the only notable exception I think of.
    The minimum wage has become the de facto maximum wage benchmark in a lot of low skilled occupations.
    As many people knew would happen as the minimum wage was introduced.... over time as the minimum wage was introduced more and more people have been caught by it.

    The national living wage is going to make that far worse for even more industries...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Serious question re passports and free movement. A Euro-colleague has just cancelled an Italian holiday as she'd not realised her infant needed a passport. Genuine question: why are passports needed at all for tourism between two countries in the EU and both in Schengen?
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited July 2016
    Jobabob said:

    IanB2 said:



    And if we are talking new parties then we are not just talking MPs. At every level of government, elected representatives would need to make a choice, and there are tons of labour controlled councils where the process would be both traumatic and throw up all sorts of comsequences in terms of which party(ies) are in charge. Plus of course higher profile people in the devolved parliaments, House of Lords, MEPs etc. would have the same choice. It could be chaotic, and will/would certainly be interesting!

    Anyone involved with managing PB isn't going to get a break any time soon...

    Those old enough to remember the SDP split know that party splits are horrible because they split old friendships which have been built up from years or even decades of working in a common cause - in some cases they even end marriages. It's not what you think of the national leaders that's so hard, it's turning your back on Sally, who is a brilliant councillor and someone you've worked with in four successive elections but has come to a different conclusion to you. Add to that the venom that inevitably arises (look how Southam and I wrestle with staying friendly, and we don't even know each other) and the default is usually to stick with your original party, say as little as possible, and hope the mess goes away.

    Successful party splits are an extreme rarity in Britain or any country on the planet. What is more common is for a different party gradually to supplant an established one, as Labour edged the Liberals aside in Britain and successive Italian centre-left parties have inched out the former Communists. If a new Labour election led to a triumph for Corbyn, I can see some MPs drifting over to the LibDems and helping to shift them into a more consistently centre-left role, though I think others would accept it or quietly retire. If it resulted in a massive repudiation of Corbyn, I think most of the newer members would retreat into apathy.
    An easier solution would be for Corbyn to do the honourable thing and resign. There is no constitutional basis for his remaining in post and his doing so is an act of gross narcissism that is making a mockery of our parliamentary democracy.

    Rather than writing posts telling elected representatives to "STFU" you should engage with the clear fact that Corbyn cannot command the authority of 85% of his own MPs.

    It really is that simple.
    There is no constiutional requirement that the Labour leader must have the confidence of MPs. The constitutional course of action is for an MP who does command confidence to stage a leadership challenge. MPs should of course have a viable plan of what to do should Corbyn be reelected.

    It seems that you do not much like constitutional procedures: Corbyn must resign; Brexit must not be implemented.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: More than 7 out of 10 Tory members back Theresa May tying future of EU migrants in UK to future of British EU expats https://t.co/5WkKYvVXjq

    I don't have a particular problem with that. So long as May said 'we're happy for people here already to stay, just so long as UK nationals in other EU states can stay there.' From what I can tell she appeared to think of it as a bargaining chip. Some things are beyond bargaining and are a matter of principle.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Serious question re passports and free movement. A Euro-colleague has just cancelled an Italian holiday as she'd not realised her infant needed a passport. Genuine question: why are passports needed at all for tourism between two countries in the EU and both in Schengen?

    Passports likely are not, but ID is. Certain nations (and I believe Italy is one of them) require a form of official ID be carried. A drivers licence would suffice, though I doubt her infant has one.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Some things are beyond bargaining and are a matter of principle.

    And the rights of UK citizens abroad should be one of them, but the Brexiteers seem happy to abandon them to their fate
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest BBC numbers :

    May 114 .. Leadsom 38 .. Gove 26 .. Crabb 23 .. Fox 9
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Serious question re passports and free movement. A Euro-colleague has just cancelled an Italian holiday as she'd not realised her infant needed a passport. Genuine question: why are passports needed at all for tourism between two countries in the EU and both in Schengen?

    Where is your colleague from?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    John_M said:

    Serious question re passports and free movement. A Euro-colleague has just cancelled an Italian holiday as she'd not realised her infant needed a passport. Genuine question: why are passports needed at all for tourism between two countries in the EU and both in Schengen?

    Where is your colleague from?
    Czech Republic.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843

    Serious question re passports and free movement. A Euro-colleague has just cancelled an Italian holiday as she'd not realised her infant needed a passport. Genuine question: why are passports needed at all for tourism between two countries in the EU and both in Schengen?

    You don't need normally need passports when flying between schengen countries, but you have to show some form of ID such as a driving license or ID card. So if the infant (obviously) doesn't have a driving license, nor an ID card, nor a passport, they can't travel by plane. This is odd though as most EU countries require you to carry some form of ID at all times, subject to random spot checks, so the infant should have something available.

    This applies only to flying though (maybe boats too, not sure), so in theory they could travel another way and cross the land border with Italy. Of course certain countries have currently applied emergency border controls so that may complicate matters further.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Serious question re passports and free movement. A Euro-colleague has just cancelled an Italian holiday as she'd not realised her infant needed a passport. Genuine question: why are passports needed at all for tourism between two countries in the EU and both in Schengen?

    Passports likely are not, but ID is. Certain nations (and I believe Italy is one of them) require a form of official ID be carried. A drivers licence would suffice, though I doubt her infant has one.
    Ah, maybe that explains the pressure for ID cards a few years ago.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    With the exception of unfair dismissal I agree with it.
    And I don't see it being hugely offputting to most Tory members to be honest.
    On reddit a Leadsom blog post from 2008 saying marriage was a good thing was highlighted as a reason she was unacceptable.

    http://www.andrealeadsom.com/working-for-you/andrea's-blog/marriage-is-key-to-the-safety-of-our-society/148

    When people who don't like her, highlight things about her that they don't like, it's not going to persuade people who share her values.
    As I said yesterday, the objection to her is nothing to do with any of her actions or views except one. She voted Leave. As such Remainers have gone deranged over her. They don't seem to understand the referendum is over and they lost. It is time to move on.
    No. The eurosceptics would certainly not have moved on if the result was reversed. We are not going to roll over while a bunch of liars destroy our country and economy on a false prospectus.
    Do you truly believe that only EU membership stands between the destruction of our country and our economy? How did we prosper for so long without it?
    Something to do with having an empire? By the time that was gone in the early-70s our economy was a basket case.
    A basket case which still produced a massive increase in living standards from 1945-73, even as the Empire was being wound up.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,340

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: More than 7 out of 10 Tory members back Theresa May tying future of EU migrants in UK to future of British EU expats https://t.co/5WkKYvVXjq

    I don't have a particular problem with that. So long as May said 'we're happy for people here already to stay, just so long as UK nationals in other EU states can stay there.' From what I can tell she appeared to think of it as a bargaining chip. Some things are beyond bargaining and are a matter of principle.
    If May had not said it and went down the other route of guaranteeing the residency of people from the EU while not getting guarantees of the reverse it would have been a unilateral disarmament.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    stodge said:



    I'm opposed to the Single Market (SM) - it has a deceptively beguiling name and it sounds so nice. It works very well for some areas and some people but not for everyone everywhere. The depopulation of Lithuania and parts of Poland and the economic devastation of southern Europe can be laid at the door of the SM.

    I was shocked when Lithuania losing a third of its population came up during the referendum. The UK equivalent would be the Black Death.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JGForsyth: May campaign not keen on tactical voting to keep Leadsom off ballot. But some ministers backing her are--& considering doing it unilaterally
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Serious question re passports and free movement. A Euro-colleague has just cancelled an Italian holiday as she'd not realised her infant needed a passport. Genuine question: why are passports needed at all for tourism between two countries in the EU and both in Schengen?

    In theory you don't, I think, but most countries demand that ID be carried at all times (we of course do not which is an interesting insight into our view of the state perhaps?), and as the only 100% official ID most UK people have is a passport (don't think a diving licence is good enough) de facto, as a UK citizen going from France to Belgium (say), you still need to carry a passport, even if you don't wave it at the border. Similar defacto rules apply getting on a flight within the UK of course.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    HYUFD said:

    Jobabob said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Fascinating Newsnight piece on UKIP

    I wonder if they could come second in 2020. Be the SNP of England and Wales.

    This is their moment. If they select the right leader, with working class appeal, and working-class-friendly policies, they could supplant Labour.

    I think

    Completely disagree. Labour are constitutionally incapable of following their huka Umunna?
    Labour now might as well give up on white working class anti immigration Leave voters, they are lost for them as such voters are lost for the Democrats in the US and have been since Bill Clinton's minorities and centrist voters who
    SNIP

    The Democrats' strategy is not viable in a country which has far fewer ethnic minorities than the US, and with an electoral system which punishes parties that disproportionately piles up votes in big cities.
    No they are not, 63% of Labour voters voted Remain and the white working class Leave voters would just go to UKIP not the Tories if they put immigration above all. Seats like Nuneaton and Cannock Chase are not going to be won back by Labour now, probably ever, seats like Enfield Southgate and Worcester where Remain won or Leave won narrowly are much better target seats for Labour if they are to win back power.

    Around 10% of the population is ethnic
    I find it hard to envisage a path to victory for Labour that doesn't run through seats like Cannock Chase, Great Yarmouth, Nuneaton, or the Thames Estuary. They'd have to make enormous inroads into historic Conservative territory to compensate.
    Labour can win if they win suburban seats like Reading, Enfield Southgate and Worcester and Battersea even if they lose seats like Nuneaton and Great Yarmouth, it would not be a Blair style landslide but it would be a win
    Indeed so. That would make a good thread...
    Yes, a thread about whether Labour is now losing staunch Leave territory but could potentially gain in staunch Remain territory would be interesting, for me the key to victory for Labour is narrow Leave territory which mirrors the nation as a whole
    Indeed, such areas are eminently winnable under first past the post.

    But first... Corbyn!!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: May campaign not keen on tactical voting to keep Leadsom off ballot. But some ministers backing her are--& considering doing it unilaterally

    I'd be very surprised if there were enough bad eggs in the parliamentary party for that to have an effect. I'm sure most MPs will make an effort to vote for the individual they think is the best candidate.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,340
    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: May campaign not keen on tactical voting to keep Leadsom off ballot. But some ministers backing her are--& considering doing it unilaterally

    Good, the last thing we need is another ideologically pure Corbyn as leader, worse as PM.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited July 2016
    JackW said:

    Latest BBC numbers :

    May 114 .. Leadsom 38 .. Gove 26 .. Crabb 23 .. Fox 9

    Looks all over bar the counting ..... but wait, what about the other 120+ Tory MPs' votes? Are most of these possibly shy Leaversdsom supporters? They are surely less likely to be shy May supporters - after all everyone likes to be seen to be backing a winner, not to mention helping one's promotion prospects in this instance.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    stodge said:



    I'm opposed to the Single Market (SM) - it has a deceptively beguiling name and it sounds so nice. It works very well for some areas and some people but not for everyone everywhere. The depopulation of Lithuania and parts of Poland and the economic devastation of southern Europe can be laid at the door of the SM.

    I was shocked when Lithuania losing a third of its population came up during the referendum. The UK equivalent would be the Black Death.
    It's a WTF factoid. Wealthier EU countries are basically carpet-bagging talent from their poorer neighbours.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: "We've taken back control!!!!". "So you'll take responsibility for what happens next then?". "Er...no".
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,340

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: May campaign not keen on tactical voting to keep Leadsom off ballot. But some ministers backing her are--& considering doing it unilaterally

    I'd be very surprised if there were enough bad eggs in the parliamentary party for that to have an effect. I'm sure most MPs will make an effort to vote for the individual they think is the best candidate.
    :lol:

    This is the Conservative party we're talking about right?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,563
    welshowl said:

    Serious question re passports and free movement. A Euro-colleague has just cancelled an Italian holiday as she'd not realised her infant needed a passport. Genuine question: why are passports needed at all for tourism between two countries in the EU and both in Schengen?

    In theory you don't, I think, but most countries demand that ID be carried at all times (we of course do not which is an interesting insight into our view of the state perhaps?), and as the only 100% official ID most UK people have is a passport (don't think a diving licence is good enough) de facto, as a UK citizen going from France to Belgium (say), you still need to carry a passport, even if you don't wave it at the border. Similar defacto rules apply getting on a flight within the UK of course.
    I generally think it is silly to travel anywhere abroad without a passport, whatever the rules are supposed to be.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: May campaign not keen on tactical voting to keep Leadsom off ballot. But some ministers backing her are--& considering doing it unilaterally

    Good, the last thing we need is another ideologically pure Corbyn as leader, worse as PM.
    You speak a lot of sense Max. The thinking man's Tory leaver.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,340

    JackW said:

    Latest BBC numbers :

    May 114 .. Leadsom 38 .. Gove 26 .. Crabb 23 .. Fox 9

    Looks all over bar the counting ..... but wait, what about the other 120+ Tory MPs' votes? Are most of these possibly shy Leaversdsom supporters? They are surely less likely to be shy May supporters - after all everyone likes to be seen to be backing a winner.
    Tactical voters would be my guess, probably a few Fox supporters in there as well.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Yes, infantile spite is the solution to all complex political problems.

    Which is why it makes sense to elect as Prime Minister of the country someone who is a very recent convert to the latest cause, but has shown the passion of a the zealot. Probably.

    Oh, wait...
    To be fair, would that not apply also to David Cameron, who before the referendum campaign declared his willingness to campaign for leave?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,304
    Will Bercow be voting today?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    stodge said:



    I'm opposed to the Single Market (SM) - it has a deceptively beguiling name and it sounds so nice. It works very well for some areas and some people but not for everyone everywhere. The depopulation of Lithuania and parts of Poland and the economic devastation of southern Europe can be laid at the door of the SM.

    I was shocked when Lithuania losing a third of its population came up during the referendum. The UK equivalent would be the Black Death.
    I'll own up to only looking at the A8 countries during the campaign. No surprise there, as I'm one of the lucky people who benefit from FoM. It's quite a shock to see the impact on places like Poland and the Baltics.

    They're now having to 'import' people from Belorussia, Ukraine and Russia to make up their domestic skills shortages. Facetiously we can say that Eurasia is engaged in a game of musical chairs, everyone moving to the country on their left.

    It's another incredibly complex problem. We would all be in favour of allowing families to better themselves - many of us either have, or would, move to another country to progress our careers. Yet en masse that can cause difficulties both for our host and home countries.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001
    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: May campaign not keen on tactical voting to keep Leadsom off ballot. But some ministers backing her are--& considering doing it unilaterally

    That's not necessarily a wise tactic. The bigger May's margin of victory amongst MPs the more she seems like the unstoppable candidate. Are activists necessarily inclined to back the PCP in current circumstances? We will find out.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191

    JackW said:

    Latest BBC numbers :

    May 114 .. Leadsom 38 .. Gove 26 .. Crabb 23 .. Fox 9

    Looks all over bar the counting ..... but wait, what about the other 120+ Tory MPs' votes? Are most of these possibly shy Leaversdsom supporters? They are surely less likely to be shy May supporters - after all everyone likes to be seen to be backing a winner, not to mention helping one's promotion prospects in this instance.
    Remember some MPs are not in a position to state a preference the officers of the 1922 for instance as they conduct this stage of the contest.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    Serious question re passports and free movement. A Euro-colleague has just cancelled an Italian holiday as she'd not realised her infant needed a passport. Genuine question: why are passports needed at all for tourism between two countries in the EU and both in Schengen?

    In theory you don't, I think, but most countries demand that ID be carried at all times (we of course do not which is an interesting insight into our view of the state perhaps?), and as the only 100% official ID most UK people have is a passport (don't think a diving licence is good enough) de facto, as a UK citizen going from France to Belgium (say), you still need to carry a passport, even if you don't wave it at the border. Similar defacto rules apply getting on a flight within the UK of course.
    I generally think it is silly to travel anywhere abroad without a passport, whatever the rules are supposed to be.
    Indeed. Having been caught up in the manhunt for a bank robber once whilst abroad sans passport for the day, wasn't a starter for ten shall we say as "I've got a bank card officer" didn't really cut the mustard on the ID stakes. Fortunately they knew they were looking for a local which I so evidently was not so I was allowed through the cordon.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: May campaign not keen on tactical voting to keep Leadsom off ballot. But some ministers backing her are--& considering doing it unilaterally

    I'd be very surprised if there were enough bad eggs in the parliamentary party for that to have an effect. I'm sure most MPs will make an effort to vote for the individual they think is the best candidate.
    Could it be that the May campaign realise that the association with tactically voting to boot out Leadsom is toxic, but the rewards of actually doing it are considerable. Have her supports boot out Leadsom giving her free run against Gove, but allow May to act as the unifier and dignified statesman who was against this kind of behaviour.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: May campaign not keen on tactical voting to keep Leadsom off ballot. But some ministers backing her are--& considering doing it unilaterally

    That's not necessarily a wise tactic. The bigger May's margin of victory amongst MPs the more she seems like the unstoppable candidate. Are activists necessarily inclined to back the PCP in current circumstances? We will find out.
    Agreed. If she blasts the others out of the water, then we should at least get one eliminated and two withdrawing, meaning we can go to the members sooner. And get a PM sooner.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    PlatoSaid said:

    DavidL said:

    Small businesses who were exempted from the minimum wage would either employ the unemployable or spend their entire time training replacements as their staff moved on to better opportunities. In reality they would have to match the going rate once they were confident that having the extra pair of hands was going to pay. At the margins it would increase employment and I think some removal of the regulatory burden would be a good idea.

    Nothing to do with health and safety of course and probably not the working time directive or unfair dismissal but it is the sort of flexibility we can take advantage of when we are out.

    Quite. I'd hope it'd offer more opportunities for those with criminal records, health or learning issues.
    Lol - you after a job?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: May campaign not keen on tactical voting to keep Leadsom off ballot. But some ministers backing her are--& considering doing it unilaterally

    That's not necessarily a wise tactic. The bigger May's margin of victory amongst MPs the more she seems like the unstoppable candidate. Are activists necessarily inclined to back the PCP in current circumstances? We will find out.
    Agreed. If she blasts the others out of the water, then we should at least get one eliminated and two withdrawing, meaning we can go to the members sooner. And get a PM sooner.
    Don't forget that Labour members voted for Corbyn over the other candidates, it wasn't just £3er entryists. You'd be putting a lot of faith in the sensibility of tory members to back May just because she's the MP preferred candidate. Labour once had faith in their members, that's why they saw fit to nominate Corbyn - they didn't think the members would go against the MPs choice.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Serious question re passports and free movement. A Euro-colleague has just cancelled an Italian holiday as she'd not realised her infant needed a passport. Genuine question: why are passports needed at all for tourism between two countries in the EU and both in Schengen?

    In theory you don't, I think, but most countries demand that ID be carried at all times (we of course do not which is an interesting insight into our view of the state perhaps?), and as the only 100% official ID most UK people have is a passport (don't think a diving licence is good enough) de facto, as a UK citizen going from France to Belgium (say), you still need to carry a passport, even if you don't wave it at the border. Similar defacto rules apply getting on a flight within the UK of course.
    I generally think it is silly to travel anywhere abroad without a passport, whatever the rules are supposed to be.
    Indeed. Having been caught up in the manhunt for a bank robber once whilst abroad sans passport for the day, wasn't a starter for ten shall we say as "I've got a bank card officer" didn't really cut the mustard on the ID stakes. Fortunately they knew they were looking for a local which I so evidently was not so I was allowed through the cordon.
    presumably because if you were going to rob a bank you wouldn't have taken your bank card along!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,295
    p.s. new thread
  • MaxPB said:

    JackW said:

    Latest BBC numbers :

    May 114 .. Leadsom 38 .. Gove 26 .. Crabb 23 .. Fox 9

    Looks all over bar the counting ..... but wait, what about the other 120+ Tory MPs' votes? Are most of these possibly shy Leaversdsom supporters? They are surely less likely to be shy May supporters - after all everyone likes to be seen to be backing a winner.
    Tactical voters would be my guess, probably a few Fox supporters in there as well.
    Don't Fox supporters tend to be sly rather than shy?

    Oi!

    (It's the way I tell 'em you know)
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    I thought this comment under the Behr article summed things up rather neatly

    fordprefect100 3h ago


    "In reality, the pro-EU arguments were supported by an overwhelming majority of economists, thinktanks, business leaders, diplomats and other professional bodies"

    The problem was, and still is, that none of those "experts" are expert about what life is like for someone who lives on a council estate in Peterborough or Bolton, or who is an unemployed fisherman in Aberdeen.

    And the people whose job it is to know - Labour MPs - don't know either, and don't care.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/05/how-remain-failed-inside-story-doomed-campaign
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: May campaign not keen on tactical voting to keep Leadsom off ballot. But some ministers backing her are--& considering doing it unilaterally

    I'd be very surprised if there were enough bad eggs in the parliamentary party for that to have an effect. I'm sure most MPs will make an effort to vote for the individual they think is the best candidate.
    :lol:

    This is the Conservative party we're talking about right?
    Think positive!

  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: "We've taken back control!!!!". "So you'll take responsibility for what happens next then?". "Er...no".

    Stop giving that fraud the oxygen of publicity. His last Westminster connection was Glenda Jackson and i bet even she lied to him about what was going on. I predict in 6 months he'll be the last desperate remain voice in the media, occupying the twittersphere like a mad 'the end is nigh' preacher outside Leicester Square tube.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. Tonda, indeed. MPs need to ensure they get two candidates, either of whom they could accept (or, failing that, the three worst are defenestrated before the members get a vote).
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    New Thread.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Serious question re passports and free movement. A Euro-colleague has just cancelled an Italian holiday as she'd not realised her infant needed a passport. Genuine question: why are passports needed at all for tourism between two countries in the EU and both in Schengen?

    In theory you don't, I think, but most countries demand that ID be carried at all times (we of course do not which is an interesting insight into our view of the state perhaps?), and as the only 100% official ID most UK people have is a passport (don't think a diving licence is good enough) de facto, as a UK citizen going from France to Belgium (say), you still need to carry a passport, even if you don't wave it at the border. Similar defacto rules apply getting on a flight within the UK of course.
    I generally think it is silly to travel anywhere abroad without a passport, whatever the rules are supposed to be.
    Indeed. Having been caught up in the manhunt for a bank robber once whilst abroad sans passport for the day, wasn't a starter for ten shall we say as "I've got a bank card officer" didn't really cut the mustard on the ID stakes. Fortunately they knew they were looking for a local which I so evidently was not so I was allowed through the cordon.
    In countries with no ID cards (UK, Ireland, Denmark, NZ, Canada, etc) I wouldn't give it a 2nd. thought. But elsewhere the police are quite within their rights to stop you as you walk down the street and demand 'your papers'.

    No doubt Mrs. May will now announce a plan to repeal a long list of illiberal moves if we leave the EU, including the Arrest Warrant?
This discussion has been closed.