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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » May beats Leadsom by 32 points in latest YouGov poll

SystemSystem Posts: 12,266
edited July 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » May beats Leadsom by 32 points in latest YouGov poll

Exc: Times/YouGov Tory members poll

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    edited July 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/UKPoliticalNews/status/750074197804716032

    I'll believe it when I see it, until then I expect it is more posturing, their tribal loyalty and fear of failure will keep them in situ.

    As for May, she should win against any of the current candidates. But how angry can more strident leavers be made, and how much will she be damaged before the ballots go out, and how much will Leadsome impress/underwhelm at the same time?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    Looks like the anecdotes of JohnO, Max, Richard Nabavi, James, and myself were accurate, Mrs May is about to win a crushing victory.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Second :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Damit, TSE! :p
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/750077963551604736
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/UKPoliticalNews/status/750074197804716032

    I'll believe it when I see it, until then I expect it is more posturing, their tribal loyalty and fear of failure will keep them in situ.

    As for May, she should win against any of the current candidates. But how angry can more strident leavers be made, and how much will she be damaged before the ballots go out, and how much will Leadsome impress/underwhelm at the same time?
    I think the Kinnock speech might be the moment that pushes them over the edge into taking radical action.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    A very good poll for Mother Theresa
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Andrea LEADNONE
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    This is going to be a very fluid thread, just stuck in some stuff about the shit Gove
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    I don't want to pollute the thread with tweets, but the Yougov poll on Gove's approval ratings are instructive. From +41 to -20 in a week. Ouch.

    *edit* Bugger. TSE has changed the header. Let's talk about newts.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like the anecdotes of JohnO, Max, Richard Nabavi, James, and myself were accurate, Mrs May is about to win a crushing victory.

    Of the two Tory members I know - one of them is me - we're both voting May.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DanSmith said:

    I think the Kinnock speech might be the moment that pushes them over the edge into taking radical action.

    Corbyn's appearance at the select committee may have helped too

    @jfbargh: Ctte:"Do you accept that Israel has a right to exist?"
    Corbyn: "I accept that Israel exists."


    @DannyCohen: Jeremy Corbyn wasn't sure if the Hamas charter was antisemitic. Until Keith Vaz read him the bit about killing Jews. Then he conceded it is.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    John_M said:

    I don't want to pollute the thread with tweets, but the Yougov poll on Gove's approval ratings are instructive. From +41 to -20 in a week. Ouch.

    *edit* Bugger. TSE has changed the header. Let's talk about newts.

    Even Gordon Brown's ratings didn't fall that rapidly
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Just managed to lay a further £150 @ 4.0 after that poll. Bonkers.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,129
    Jobabob said:

    A very good poll for Mother Theresa

    Its not just the poll but to have such a comprehensive lead in every category really was unexpected and very pleasing
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    @ Tyson - I answered you on the previous thread
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,717
    Leadsom beats both Gove and Crabb though
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/750078885937745921
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    edited July 2016
    I did so enjoy completing that poll.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Are the tables available yet?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Leadsom’s momentum stalls.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    But it's just an opinion poll.

    And we all know how reliable they are...
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited July 2016
    The Tories do pragmatism well. It's time for pragmatism post-Brexit and May will provide that. She'll win at a canter.

    Clever spin from the May-backing Tory MPs too to portray Leadsom as a right winger. It helps to sell May (vulnerable to accusations of authoritarianism) to the country as a moderate centrist.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like the anecdotes of JohnO, Max, Richard Nabavi, James, and myself were accurate, Mrs May is about to win a crushing victory.

    Of the two Tory members I know - one of them is me - we're both voting May.
    a crushing victory :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,717
    HYUFD said:

    Leadsom beats both Gove and Crabb though
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/750078885937745921

    On that basis May would utterly crush Gove
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SamCoatesTimes: Remember folks it's VERY EARLY in the Tory campaign and polls are snapshots, not predictions.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    Tissue_Price said:

    Are the tables available yet?

    No yet, shortly I'm told
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    DanSmith said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/UKPoliticalNews/status/750074197804716032

    I'll believe it when I see it, until then I expect it is more posturing, their tribal loyalty and fear of failure will keep them in situ.

    As for May, she should win against any of the current candidates. But how angry can more strident leavers be made, and how much will she be damaged before the ballots go out, and how much will Leadsome impress/underwhelm at the same time?
    I think the Kinnock speech might be the moment that pushes them over the edge into taking radical action.
    He drew a number of female Labour MPs to tears. Lucy Powell was so emotional she had to leave the meeting. The PLP know that the game is up with Corbyn - the man whose deep seated doctrinaire arrogance could split one of the great parties of state. It might be the best solution, long term.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    If Mr Gove's numbers can reverse in a week, so can Ms May's or Ms Leadsom's.

    We haven't even had the first round of MPs voting yet.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    A very good point by the Theresa May camp in the Times today (££)

    If we say "all current EU citizens in the UK can stay in the UK after Brexit" then you risk an enormous influx before we actually leave.

    I'm not sure how you get around that.

    That's what the Brexiteers meant by "taking back control" of our borders...
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    When are you resigning. TSE
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Jobabob said:

    A very good poll for Mother Theresa

    Its not just the poll but to have such a comprehensive lead in every category really was unexpected and very pleasing
    Indeed. Very heartwarming.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    JohnO said:

    I did so enjoy completing that poll.

    So did I. Looks like views on Gove were reflective of my fellow Tory members
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MirrorPolitics: Labour staffers blow the lid on life inside Jeremy Corbyn's 'paranoid' HQ https://t.co/OR1vJzczU0 https://t.co/C9vuXTSq1S
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Freggles said:

    Andrea LEADNONE

    Andrea Leadballoon?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Remember folks it's VERY EARLY in the Tory campaign and polls are snapshots, not predictions.

    Yes, but May should be about 1.15.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,655
    This poll is good news for Leadsome, less good for Gove.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,717
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Remember folks it's VERY EARLY in the Tory campaign and polls are snapshots, not predictions.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/750077308069961728
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    Freggles said:

    When are you resigning. TSE

    I've booked my holiday for July 24th, and I'm not back until the 5th of August.

    So I'm resigning July 23rd
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    Crabb ok on understanding concerns of normal people and nothing else - so he's the Ed Miliband.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Jobabob said:

    Freggles said:

    Andrea LEADNONE

    Andrea Leadballoon?
    Comes at a bad time for her, when she was building up some sort of steam.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    SeanT said:

    A very good point by the Theresa May camp in the Times today (££)

    If we say "all current EU citizens in the UK can stay in the UK after Brexit" then you risk an enormous influx before we actually leave.

    I'm not sure how you get around that.

    But why? The economy tanking, rivers running with the blood of immigrants, Bake off on ITV, all as foretold in the Book of Revelations? What madmen would want to come to these shores?

    There's a remarkable lack of consistency. Brexit is going to be a clusterfuck! But we must stop all the Europeans rushing in!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    This poll won't have taken into account Boris's endorsement of Leadsom.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    If the actual election bears out this polling, it won't be good for ConHome's reputation.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Remember folks it's VERY EARLY in the Tory campaign and polls are snapshots, not predictions.

    SNIP
    If the vote were tomorrow, I would agree with you.

    But it's not
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    Tissue_Price said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Remember folks it's VERY EARLY in the Tory campaign and polls are snapshots, not predictions.

    Yes, but May should be about 1.15.
    Told you laying Leadsom would be profitable long term.

    Keep the faith.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    DanSmith said:

    I think the Kinnock speech might be the moment that pushes them over the edge into taking radical action.

    Corbyn's appearance at the select committee may have helped too

    @jfbargh: Ctte:"Do you accept that Israel has a right to exist?"
    Corbyn: "I accept that Israel exists."


    @DannyCohen: Jeremy Corbyn wasn't sure if the Hamas charter was antisemitic. Until Keith Vaz read him the bit about killing Jews. Then he conceded it is.

    He also insisted, reassuringly, that despite some doubts about his opinion, he thought "the activities of ISIS are wholly wrong".

    Thanks Jez.

    A man who makes lifelong Labour supporters glad to be alive. The guy really is an absolute disgrace.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,717
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Remember folks it's VERY EARLY in the Tory campaign and polls are snapshots, not predictions.

    SNIP
    If the vote were tomorrow, I would agree with you.

    But it's not
    Of course never say never but unless Leadsom gets to the final 2 and slaughters May in the debates it is May's to lose
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    Tissue_Price said:

    If the actual election bears out this polling, it won't be good for ConHome's reputation.

    We will be able to officially call them UKIPhome
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited July 2016
    Tissue_Price said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Remember folks it's VERY EARLY in the Tory campaign and polls are snapshots, not predictions.

    Yes, but May should be about 1.15.
    Agreed. 80-90%, not 66%

    TBH, from here on I'm struggling to imagine any personal dirt that could sink her.

    It would have to be, like, getting jiggy with an Afghan migrant in return for a passport.

    Or something.

    Not going to happen.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    Did that Wales that Roger Scully was trailing get released?
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    Fenster said:


    - I think May will win the race at a canter.

    So do I. May will get some support from Leavers, surely. They aren't all SNP-style believers in the great tomorrow.
    Fenster said:

    - I am 100% certain Brexit will happen and the UK will leave

    I hope that's hyperbole. Assuming you're rounding up from 99.5%, I'd be happy to lay Brexit by say the end of 2019 at 1.005.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/750062069735649280
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    DanSmith said:

    I think the Kinnock speech might be the moment that pushes them over the edge into taking radical action.

    Corbyn's appearance at the select committee may have helped too

    @jfbargh: Ctte:"Do you accept that Israel has a right to exist?"
    Corbyn: "I accept that Israel exists."


    @DannyCohen: Jeremy Corbyn wasn't sure if the Hamas charter was antisemitic. Until Keith Vaz read him the bit about killing Jews. Then he conceded it is.

    He also insisted, reassuringly, that despite some doubts about his opinion, he thought "the activities of ISIS are wholly wrong".

    Thanks Jez.

    A man who makes lifelong Labour supporters glad to be alive. The guy really is an absolute disgrace.
    And one adored or supported by many many tens of thousands. Hundreds perhaps. And who, though he would lose, would lead his party to millions of votes. Funny old world.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,655
    Tissue_Price said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Remember folks it's VERY EARLY in the Tory campaign and polls are snapshots, not predictions.

    Yes, but May should be about 1.15.
    Hmm I've heard this "back the shorty" before...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Tissue_Price said:

    If the actual election bears out this polling, it won't be good for ConHome's reputation.

    ConHome's write up was sound. "We poll more active members, polling everyone will be more pro May" it said.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    I've just realised I'll be able to use the name of my second favourite law firm in a thread header.

    Slaughter & May.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pong said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Remember folks it's VERY EARLY in the Tory campaign and polls are snapshots, not predictions.

    Yes, but May should be about 1.15.
    Agreed. 80-90%, not 66%

    TBH, from here on I'm struggling to imagine any personal dirt that could sink her.

    It would have to be, like, getting jiggy with an Afghan migrant in return for a passport.

    Or something.

    Not going to happen.
    Why? She's already got a passport.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    1922 meeting
    "Afterwards, there was more briefing against Leadsom than any other candidate. This is, perhaps, a reflection of the fat she is coming up fast on the rails in this race—further boosted by Boris Johnson’s endorsement tonight. But there is also a sense among Tory MPs that if she makes the final two, she could win. "

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/question-stephen-crabb-can-go-toe-toe-vladimir-putin/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    Pong said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Remember folks it's VERY EARLY in the Tory campaign and polls are snapshots, not predictions.

    Yes, but May should be about 1.15.
    Agreed. 80-90%, not 66%

    TBH, from here on I'm struggling to imagine any personal dirt that could sink her.

    It would have to be, like, getting jiggy with an Afghan migrant in return for a passport.

    Or something.

    Not going to happen.
    Being caught out suggesting Brexit might not happen if we get a poor deal would do it - but I think she should avoid that.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    SeanT said:

    A very good point by the Theresa May camp in the Times today (££)

    If we say "all current EU citizens in the UK can stay in the UK after Brexit" then you risk an enormous influx before we actually leave.

    I'm not sure how you get around that.

    Doubt it there is a mad rush for the exit allegedly?

    anecdote after anecdote for the last week from posters have indicated that those already here feel unwanted and want to leave. Well anecdotes according to Tuscan Tyson anyway.....
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've just realised I'll be able to use the name of my second favourite law firm in a thread header.

    Slaughter & May.

    I assume it's your second favourite law firm name rather than your second favourite law firm...
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    @jfbargh: Ctte:"Do you accept that Israel has a right to exist?"
    Corbyn: "I accept that Israel exists."


    How did such a man get to lead a major British party!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Tory hustings
    "Am told there will be at least nine, and maybe as many as 11, hustings for the two candidates for the leadership sent to the Tory membership"

    twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/750067438004436992
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,920
    Surely this poll just consolidates Leadsom's position as the challenger to May? She just needs to see off Gove, Crabb and Fox at this point.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,562
    anotherDave said:

    1922 meeting
    "Afterwards, there was more briefing against Leadsom than any other candidate. This is, perhaps, a reflection of the fat she is coming up fast on the rails in this race—further boosted by Boris Johnson’s endorsement tonight. But there is also a sense among Tory MPs that if she makes the final two, she could win. "

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/question-stephen-crabb-can-go-toe-toe-vladimir-putin/

    Make sure she doesn't reach the final two then chaps!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Anecdote warning:

    Just off the phone to my Mum. She is the only person in my family with a vote for the next PM.

    Not impressed by May, impressed by Leadsome in debates, and also the fact that she had a proper job. Thinks she would be a good negotiator.

    Went a bit apoplectic when I suggested Gove was a better bet!
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    John_N4 said:

    Fenster said:


    - I think May will win the race at a canter.

    So do I. May will get some support from Leavers, surely. They aren't all SNP-style believers in the great tomorrow.
    Fenster said:

    - I am 100% certain Brexit will happen and the UK will leave

    I hope that's hyperbole. Assuming you're rounding up from 99.5%, I'd be happy to lay Brexit by say the end of 2019 at 1.005.

    It is hyperbole but I've no doubt we'll properly leave.

    The politicians will rightly concede that if our reputation is damaged by voting Brexit, it's nothing to compared to the damage that'd be done to our democracy if they ignored the will of the people.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've just realised I'll be able to use the name of my second favourite law firm in a thread header.

    Slaughter & May.

    I assume it's your second favourite law firm name rather than your second favourite law firm...
    Kinda.

    Slaughter & May did help get rid of Hicks and Gillett from Liverpool FC.

    Wright Hassell is number one for the name.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TelePolitics: Theresa May calls for urgent go-ahead on Trident replacement  https://t.co/r3P1pn7UnT

    Still doing proper politics...
  • chrisoxonchrisoxon Posts: 204
    edited July 2016
    10th September 2005
    "A YouGov survey of Tory Party members in today's Telegraph produces a number of interesting findings...

    Ken Clarke is the first choice of more members than any other candidate. Ken Clarke wins 33% of first preferences. David Davis gets 28%; David Cameron 17%; Liam Fox 8%; and Sir Malcolm Rifkind 4%.

    If the final round was between David Davis and Ken Clarke, Mr Davis leads by just 48% to 45%. Mr Davis would beat Mr Cameron by 53% to 36%....."
    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/toryleadership/2005/09/14_of_tory_memb.html

    It is still early days...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    SimonStClare said:

    @jfbargh: Ctte:"Do you accept that Israel has a right to exist?"
    Corbyn: "I accept that Israel exists."


    How did such a man get to lead a major British party!

    Overwhelming acclaim of its members.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    Has YouGov done May vs Gove?

    Presumably (per YouGov) May beats Gove more easily than May beats Leadsom (as Leadsom beats Gove easily).

    So tactical voting considerations still apply.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    The Mirror story Scott posted from inside the Corbyn bunker is utterly damning.

    It is a sad day for politics to see a once great party being destroyed by this rank incompetent and his deranged followers.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JananGanesh: The case for Leadsom is that Brexiteers should oversee whatever happens in the coming years. No hiding, no "If only we'd been in charge..."

    And the Brexiteer cheerleaders are pushing her pretty hard
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SimonStClare said:

    @jfbargh: Ctte:"Do you accept that Israel has a right to exist?"
    Corbyn: "I accept that Israel exists."


    How did such a man get to lead a major British party!

    By an innocent act of unmitigated stupidity. The charitable nominations.
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited July 2016
    Scott_P said:

    DanSmith said:

    I think the Kinnock speech might be the moment that pushes them over the edge into taking radical action.

    Corbyn's appearance at the select committee may have helped too

    @jfbargh: Ctte:"Do you accept that Israel has a right to exist?"
    Corbyn: "I accept that Israel exists."


    @DannyCohen: Jeremy Corbyn wasn't sure if the Hamas charter was antisemitic. Until Keith Vaz read him the bit about killing Jews. Then he conceded it is.

    What a disgraceful and undignified role the Home Affairs Select Committee has taken upon itself. Since when in the HELL was it a requirement in this country that the Leader of the Opposition, or the holder of any office at all, must accept the right of that dirty little fascist regime to exist?

    Reference to Hamas's charter is the purest hasbara. Hamas on their website have explicitly praised anti-Zionist Jews and published their material. Many anti-Zionist Jews support Hamas.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    MikeL said:

    Has YouGov done May vs Gove?

    Presumably (per YouGov) May beats Gove more easily than May beats Leadsom (as Leadsom beats Gove easily).

    So tactical voting considerations still apply.

    The poll that JohnO and I completed had the Gove v May match up
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Sanity...

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    SimonStClare said:

    @jfbargh: Ctte:"Do you accept that Israel has a right to exist?"
    Corbyn: "I accept that Israel exists."


    How did such a man get to lead a major British party!

    TBF it's a trick question. No country has the right to exist. Sometimes the people in part of a country will decide to leave, or the majority will agree to merge it with another country, and the country will stop existing.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Anybody know why Betfair have not settled the Nigel Farage leader exit date market?

    Are they waiting for him to unresign?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    John_N4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    DanSmith said:

    I think the Kinnock speech might be the moment that pushes them over the edge into taking radical action.

    Corbyn's appearance at the select committee may have helped too

    @jfbargh: Ctte:"Do you accept that Israel has a right to exist?"
    Corbyn: "I accept that Israel exists."


    @DannyCohen: Jeremy Corbyn wasn't sure if the Hamas charter was antisemitic. Until Keith Vaz read him the bit about killing Jews. Then he conceded it is.

    What a disgraceful and undignified role the Home Affairs Select Committee has taken upon itself. Since when in the HELL was it a requirement in this country that the Leader of the Opposition, or the holder of any office at all, must accept the right of that dirty little fascist regime to exist?
    Fascist? Aren't they one of the only mid east countries that have a democracy?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Was there any polling on how Boris Johnson is now viewed by the Conservative party faithful? If he's seen as a modern day St Sebastian, his endorsement might be very valuable indeed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,920
    Scott_P said:

    @TelePolitics: Theresa May calls for urgent go-ahead on Trident replacement  https://t.co/r3P1pn7UnT

    Still doing proper politics...

    Is that because she needs to keep Scottish independence on track to have a good enough excuse to go back on Brexit?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    John_N4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    DanSmith said:

    I think the Kinnock speech might be the moment that pushes them over the edge into taking radical action.

    Corbyn's appearance at the select committee may have helped too

    @jfbargh: Ctte:"Do you accept that Israel has a right to exist?"
    Corbyn: "I accept that Israel exists."


    @DannyCohen: Jeremy Corbyn wasn't sure if the Hamas charter was antisemitic. Until Keith Vaz read him the bit about killing Jews. Then he conceded it is.

    What a disgraceful and undignified role the Home Affairs Select Committee has taken upon itself. Since when in the HELL was it a requirement in this country that the Leader of the Opposition, or the holder of any office at all, must accept the right of that dirty little fascist regime to exist?

    Reference to Hamas's charter is the purest hasbara. Hamas on their website have explicitly praised anti-Zionist Jews and published their material. Many anti-Zionist Jews support Hamas.
    My trollometer needle just wrapped itself around the end stop.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    williamglenn said:

    Is that because she needs to keep Scottish independence on track to have a good enough excuse to go back on Brexit?

    It's another opportunity for Labour backbenchers to kick Corbyn round the chamber for days
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    Seems like Tory candidates go from hero to zero in a very short time nowadays. Are we sure this isn't going to happen to May?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,562
    Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott 10m10 minutes ago
    Great coup for @andrealeadsom to secure backing from @BorisJohnson . I keep saying, if she gets to the final two, I think she will win.

    Well then, we know what to do don't we, Tory MPs?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Anecdote warning:

    Just off the phone to my Mum. She is the only person in my family with a vote for the next PM.

    Not impressed by May, impressed by Leadsome in debates, and also the fact that she had a proper job. Thinks she would be a good negotiator.

    Went a bit apoplectic when I suggested Gove was a better bet!

    So, the Fox poll is:
    Leadsom: 100%, May: 0%

    What sort of track record does your mum have?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Was there any polling on how Boris Johnson is now viewed by the Conservative party faithful? If he's seen as a modern day St Sebastian, his endorsement might be very valuable indeed.

    IIRC I was asked where to place Boris on the left/right axis and my favourability towards him
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Was there any polling on how Boris Johnson is now viewed by the Conservative party faithful? If he's seen as a modern day St Sebastian, his endorsement might be very valuable indeed.

    Must be something - the poll I did as a non party faithful member asked if I was happy he was no longer in the running, tories will surely have been asked something similar since the event,
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,562
    Daily Mail front page delivered to May.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    rottenborough said:

    Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott 10m10 minutes ago
    Great coup for @andrealeadsom to secure backing from @BorisJohnson . I keep saying, if she gets to the final two, I think she will win.

    Well then, we know what to do don't we, Tory MPs?

    I feel sorry for Crabb - unlikely as it seems, he might well prove himself worthy of being in the final two, but if he does it, a great many will say it is because of May backers scared of Leadsome.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    rottenborough said:

    Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott 10m10 minutes ago
    Great coup for @andrealeadsom to secure backing from @BorisJohnson . I keep saying, if she gets to the final two, I think she will win.

    Well then, we know what to do don't we, Tory MPs?

    Putting Gove, Fox or Crabb in the last two would absolutely not be in the national interest. Just incase May has a massive gaffe and the country gets stuck with those liabilities.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Was there any polling on how Boris Johnson is now viewed by the Conservative party faithful? If he's seen as a modern day St Sebastian, his endorsement might be very valuable indeed.

    IIRC I was asked where to place Boris on the left/right axis and my favourability towards him
    He always strikes me as quite a lefty Tory, albeit deeply unsuitable to be PM. But his politics are quite hard to place.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,562
    Philip Collins ‏@PCollinsTimes 1h1 hour ago
    I would imagine the reason Johnson is backing Leadsom is that he thinks she won't make it all the way to 2020.

    Funny, I had the same thought.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,655
    David Miliband last price matched 7.4.

    Wasn't me, I have a 4 figure negative on him already at an average of 9.63
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    Jobabob said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Was there any polling on how Boris Johnson is now viewed by the Conservative party faithful? If he's seen as a modern day St Sebastian, his endorsement might be very valuable indeed.

    IIRC I was asked where to place Boris on the left/right axis and my favourability towards him
    He always strikes me as quite a lefty Tory, albeit deeply unsuitable to be PM. But his politics are quite hard to place.
    Boris is more left wing than Dave which has always amused me
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,920
    kle4 said:

    rottenborough said:

    Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott 10m10 minutes ago
    Great coup for @andrealeadsom to secure backing from @BorisJohnson . I keep saying, if she gets to the final two, I think she will win.

    Well then, we know what to do don't we, Tory MPs?

    I feel sorry for Crabb - unlikely as it seems, he might well prove himself worthy of being in the final two, but if he does it, a great many will say it is because of May backers scared of Leadsome.
    What May needs is to get Gove's endorsement to be able to keep Leadsom's total below 1/3. Tactical voting for Crabb won't stop Leadsom on its own.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    rottenborough said:

    Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott 10m10 minutes ago
    Great coup for @andrealeadsom to secure backing from @BorisJohnson . I keep saying, if she gets to the final two, I think she will win.

    Well then, we know what to do don't we, Tory MPs?

    Isabel "some of my book might not have been true" Oakeshott is a Brexiteer

    This is the approved line to take
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    rottenborough said:

    Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott 10m10 minutes ago
    Great coup for @andrealeadsom to secure backing from @BorisJohnson . I keep saying, if she gets to the final two, I think she will win.

    Well then, we know what to do don't we, Tory MPs?

    I'm with Isabel. She wins amongst the Tories I know....

    They're suspicious of May's tendencies e.g. Snoopers Charter.
This discussion has been closed.