I think the Kinnock speech might be the moment that pushes them over the edge into taking radical action.
Corbyn's appearance at the select committee may have helped too
@jfbargh: Ctte:"Do you accept that Israel has a right to exist?" Corbyn: "I accept that Israel exists."
@DannyCohen: Jeremy Corbyn wasn't sure if the Hamas charter was antisemitic. Until Keith Vaz read him the bit about killing Jews. Then he conceded it is.
What a disgraceful and undignified role the Home Affairs Select Committee has taken upon itself. Since when in the HELL was it a requirement in this country that the Leader of the Opposition, or the holder of any office at all, must accept the right of that dirty little fascist regime to exist?
Fascist? Aren't they one of the only mid east countries that have a democracy?
I think the Kinnock speech might be the moment that pushes them over the edge into taking radical action.
Corbyn's appearance at the select committee may have helped too
@jfbargh: Ctte:"Do you accept that Israel has a right to exist?" Corbyn: "I accept that Israel exists."
@DannyCohen: Jeremy Corbyn wasn't sure if the Hamas charter was antisemitic. Until Keith Vaz read him the bit about killing Jews. Then he conceded it is.
What a disgraceful and undignified role the Home Affairs Select Committee has taken upon itself. Since when in the HELL was it a requirement in this country that the Leader of the Opposition, or the holder of any office at all, must accept the right of that dirty little fascist regime to exist?
Fascist? Aren't they one of the only mid east countries that have a democracy?
No. They don't allow candidates to stand for election who oppose the Jewish-supremacist character of the regime. Israel is a Jewish-supremacist regime and those who oppose ethnic supremacism opposite its right to exist. "Right to exist" is only propaganda bullshit to justify its "right to defend itself", which means slaughtering innocents and refugees.
I think the Kinnock speech might be the moment that pushes them over the edge into taking radical action.
Corbyn's appearance at the select committee may have helped too
@jfbargh: Ctte:"Do you accept that Israel has a right to exist?" Corbyn: "I accept that Israel exists."
@DannyCohen: Jeremy Corbyn wasn't sure if the Hamas charter was antisemitic. Until Keith Vaz read him the bit about killing Jews. Then he conceded it is.
What a disgraceful and undignified role the Home Affairs Select Committee has taken upon itself. Since when in the HELL was it a requirement in this country that the Leader of the Opposition, or the holder of any office at all, must accept the right of that dirty little fascist regime to exist?
Fascist? Aren't they one of the only mid east countries that have a democracy?
No. They don't allow candidates to stand for election who oppose the Jewish-supremacist character of the regime. Israel is a Jewish-supremacist regime and those who oppose ethnic supremacism opposite its right to exist. "Right to exist" is only propaganda bullshit to justify its "right to defend itself", which means slaughtering innocents and refugees.
10th September 2005 "A YouGov survey of Tory Party members in today's Telegraph produces a number of interesting findings...
Ken Clarke is the first choice of more members than any other candidate. Ken Clarke wins 33% of first preferences. David Davis gets 28%; David Cameron 17%; Liam Fox 8%; and Sir Malcolm Rifkind 4%.
Was there any polling on how Boris Johnson is now viewed by the Conservative party faithful? If he's seen as a modern day St Sebastian, his endorsement might be very valuable indeed.
IIRC I was asked where to place Boris on the left/right axis and my favourability towards him
He always strikes me as quite a lefty Tory, albeit deeply unsuitable to be PM. But his politics are quite hard to place.
Very liberal. You could see how much he hated making the immigration argument during the leave campaign.
@jfbargh: Ctte:"Do you accept that Israel has a right to exist?" Corbyn: "I accept that Israel exists."
How did such a man get to lead a major British party!
TBF it's a trick question. No country has the right to exist. Sometimes the people in part of a country will decide to leave, or the majority will agree to merge it with another country, and the country will stop existing.
It's not a trick question. Israel is surrounded by armies, regimes, nations, and one mighty faith, which all want to violently destroy it, and its Jewish people. To sweep it into the sea.
In that respect it is quite unique. It's not like the potential break up of the UK or Spain.
If the question was "Do you support the violent destruction of Israel by neighbouring regimes" that wouldn't be a trick question.
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott 10m10 minutes ago Great coup for @andrealeadsom to secure backing from @BorisJohnson . I keep saying, if she gets to the final two, I think she will win.
Well then, we know what to do don't we, Tory MPs?
Isabel "some of my book might not have been true" Oakeshott is a Brexiteer
This is the approved line to take
She probably has also lined up a hagiography book about Lead Balloon. May won't stoop to allow one.
I note that Isabel "Shop My Source" Oakeshott reckons Leadballoon would win in a run off. So do I, hence why I backed her earlier, as I have no faith in Tory members to resist the siren call of euroscepticism. Hope to be wrong. Might be better for the PCP to knife her in parliament so she fails to make the ballot. What's the strategy?
I think the Kinnock speech might be the moment that pushes them over the edge into taking radical action.
Corbyn's appearance at the select committee may have helped too
@jfbargh: Ctte:"Do you accept that Israel has a right to exist?" Corbyn: "I accept that Israel exists."
@DannyCohen: Jeremy Corbyn wasn't sure if the Hamas charter was antisemitic. Until Keith Vaz read him the bit about killing Jews. Then he conceded it is.
What a disgraceful and undignified role the Home Affairs Select Committee has taken upon itself. Since when in the HELL was it a requirement in this country that the Leader of the Opposition, or the holder of any office at all, must accept the right of that dirty little fascist regime to exist?
Fascist? Aren't they one of the only mid east countries that have a democracy?
No. They don't allow candidates to stand for election who oppose the Jewish-supremacist character of the regime. Israel is a Jewish-supremacist regime and those who oppose ethnic supremacism opposite its right to exist. "Right to exist" is only propaganda bullshit to justify its "right to defend itself", which means slaughtering innocents and refugees.
Er....
I take it you're hesitating because you didn't know that people in territory claimed by "Israel" aren't allowed to stand for election if they oppose Jewish ethnic supremacism and it's taking you a while to confirm? The phrase that's sometimes used approvingly by the supporters of this obscenity is "the Jewish nature of the state".
As for the functioning of the "right to exist" and "right to defend itself" phrases, you could start with usage by western leaders and representatives during massacres being committed by the IDF in Gaza. Here, for example, or any of many other places.
It's OK nunu, well balanced people understand that every community in this country have their fair share of reprobates, villains and criminals. Or have I misunderstood your point?
I note that Isabel "Shop My Source" Oakeshott reckons Leadballoon would win in a run off. So do I, hence why I backed her earlier, as I have no faith in Tory members to resist the siren call of euroscepticism. Hope to be wrong. Might be better for the PCP to knife her in parliament so she fails to make the ballot. What's the strategy?
She might not make the ballot. I expect May will lend an awful lot of votes to Gove and Crabb to make sure Leadsom comes fourth in round 2.
I think the Kinnock speech might be the moment that pushes them over the edge into taking radical action.
Corbyn's appearance at the select committee may have helped too
@jfbargh: Ctte:"Do you accept that Israel has a right to exist?" Corbyn: "I accept that Israel exists."
@DannyCohen: Jeremy Corbyn wasn't sure if the Hamas charter was antisemitic. Until Keith Vaz read him the bit about killing Jews. Then he conceded it is.
What a disgraceful and undignified role the Home Affairs Select Committee has taken upon itself. Since when in the HELL was it a requirement in this country that the Leader of the Opposition, or the holder of any office at all, must accept the right of that dirty little fascist regime to exist?
Fascist? Aren't they one of the only mid east countries that have a democracy?
No. They don't allow candidates to stand for election who oppose the Jewish-supremacist character of the regime. Israel is a Jewish-supremacist regime and those who oppose ethnic supremacism opposite its right to exist. "Right to exist" is only propaganda bullshit to justify its "right to defend itself", which means slaughtering innocents and refugees.
Any citizen over 21 is entitled to be elected to the Knesset, subject to some limitations for senior civil servants etc.
As it is your view that Israel does not in fact have the right to exist how and by whom do you propose its existence should be terminated?
Just off the phone to my Mum. She is the only person in my family with a vote for the next PM.
Not impressed by May, impressed by Leadsome in debates, and also the fact that she had a proper job. Thinks she would be a good negotiator.
Went a bit apoplectic when I suggested Gove was a better bet!
So, the Fox poll is: Leadsom: 100%, May: 0%
What sort of track record does your mum have?
She voted Leave last week. Voted Tory in 2015 in a marginal because she didnt want the SNP holding the balance. She is a fairly good political barometer.
I note that Isabel "Shop My Source" Oakeshott reckons Leadballoon would win in a run off. So do I, hence why I backed her earlier, as I have no faith in Tory members to resist the siren call of euroscepticism. Hope to be wrong. Might be better for the PCP to knife her in parliament so she fails to make the ballot. What's the strategy?
She might not make the ballot. I expect May will lend an awful lot of votes to Gove and Crabb to make sure Leadsom comes fourth in round 2.
Quite right too, after tonight's performance by all accounts. Go and be a Cabinet minister for a few years and then come back to us.
I don't think the May team should try to block Leadsom from being on the members' ballot. We need a decisive, unifying result, and it's crucial not to have any whiff of an establishment stitch-up.
I don't think the May team should try to block Leadsom from being on the members' ballot. We need a decisive, unifying result, and it's crucial not to have any whiff of an establishment stitch-up.
By rights they shouldn't need to, it is bizarre that she is even in the race.
Wasn't me, I have a 4 figure negative on him already at an average of 9.63
This must be the most bonkers betting price around at the moment. Surely he should be closer to 80 than 8?
I've tried to understand this price, and here's my theory
1) Punters think Corbyn is going to last until 2020
2) David Miliband is going to become an MP by 2020
3) Labour gets shellacked in 2020
4) Labour members come to their senses
5) Elect someone who isn't tainted by the last few years
Here we are
stjohn Posts: 479 July 3 I've just thought of a line of reasoning that might explain David Miliband's price for next Labour leader. Punters may be betting on the coup failing, Corbyn leading Labour to a severe electoral defeat at the next GE, David Miliband stands for election as an MP at the next GE or beforehand in a by election and is eligible for the leadership election when Corbyn resigns as leader.
I don't think the May team should try to block Leadsom from being on the members' ballot. We need a decisive, unifying result, and it's crucial not to have any whiff of an establishment stitch-up.
It doesn't need the May team to do anything. All it requires is enough sensible Tory MPs to outvote the nutters.
This is exactly the problem Labour had. The MPs voted for a totally unsuitable candidate none of them really wanted to appease some sense of fairness and are now completely undone, to the detriment of the country.
If you don't think Leadsom is competent, it would be a dereliction of duty to vote for her
Wasn't me, I have a 4 figure negative on him already at an average of 9.63
This must be the most bonkers betting price around at the moment. Surely he should be closer to 80 than 8?
I've tried to understand this price, and here's my theory
1) Punters think Corbyn is going to last until 2020
2) David Miliband is going to become an MP by 2020
3) Labour gets shellacked in 2020
4) Labour members come to their senses
5) Elect someone who isn't tainted by the last few years
Here we are
stjohn Posts: 479 July 3 I've just thought of a line of reasoning that might explain David Miliband's price for next Labour leader. Punters may be betting on the coup failing, Corbyn leading Labour to a severe electoral defeat at the next GE, David Miliband stands for election as an MP at the next GE or beforehand in a by election and is eligible for the leadership election when Corbyn resigns as leader.
Not implausible but hardly likely.
There are rumours that Barry Sheerman will stand down for David Miliband, but I still have my doubts
@jfbargh: Ctte:"Do you accept that Israel has a right to exist?" Corbyn: "I accept that Israel exists."
How did such a man get to lead a major British party!
TBF it's a trick question. No country has the right to exist. Sometimes the people in part of a country will decide to leave, or the majority will agree to merge it with another country, and the country will stop existing.
It's not a trick question. Israel is surrounded by armies, regimes, nations, and one mighty faith, which all want to violently destroy it, and its Jewish people. To sweep it into the sea.
In that respect it is quite unique. It's not like the potential break up of the UK or Spain.
Please find out some more about it. Jordan and Egypt have peace treaties with Israel. Their armed forces are not configured for attempting to destroy it. Why should a recent Jewish settler from the US or Hungary or somewhere, settled there under the Right of "Return", perhaps keeping a home in New York or Budapest, be considered to have a right to stay in Palestine when 5 million Arabs actually from Palestine or whose parents were from Palestine have been made into refugees precisely by the supremacist regime that operates the Right of "Return" for foreign Jews? Many would have preferred it if Nazi Germany could have been ended peacefully - or if their auntie was their uncle.
If the challenge to Jeremy Corbyn fails, Labour almost inevitably splits. So even stjohn's suggested route for David Miliband looks like a non-starter to me.
Read Hansard, and then tell us how many Brexiteers even mentioned UK citizens abroad in their whiny questions today
As I don't actually work for you matie, I'll pass. I note that even that renowned Leaver S. Wollaston attacked the government on the issue.
To be clear, we don't need to make unilateral "guarantees". We simply state that our working assumption is that our European partners will agree bilateral residency rights, and that until there is a material change in their position, ours will not change.
My objections are twofold:
Modulo Spain and the odd minnow like Cyprus, we have more EU nationals here than Brits over there. That's an implicit leverage in and of itself.
Secondly, it's the morally correct thing to do. That's unfashionable, but there it is.
We want an amicable divorce. We have 3.2 million EU nationals here. We are leaving the EU, not trying to alienate people who should be our natural allies.
I do appreciate we're not going to agree on this. Have another Internet point in compensation.
If the challenge to Jeremy Corbyn fails, Labour almost inevitably splits. So even stjohn's suggested route for David Miliband looks like a non-starter to me.
Once we get into 2017 I may well start to back him myself though, time value of money and all that.
I wonder if they could come second in 2020. Be the SNP of England and Wales.
This is their moment. If they select the right leader, with working class appeal, and working-class-friendly policies, they could supplant Labour.
I think they're over. Without the EU, and especially if the Conservatives choose a Leave leader, UKIP have lost their key USP.
Completely disagree. Labour are constitutionally incapable of following their working class, lower middle class core vote, down the anti-immigration, socially conservative, happily patriotic road.
That leaves a huge well of people for whom the posh Tories will never be acceptable, but who now find themselves alienated entirely from weird freaky metrosexual Islington Labour.
UKIP of course are ideally placed. They are patriots. They WILL talk about immigration. They're not keen on the burqa. They are possibly pro capital punishment (like 50% of the people).
The SNP destroyed Labour in Scotland, and devoured their vote. UKIP could easily do the same to Labour in England and Wales. Labour will end up the party of the Guardianistas, some ethnic minorities, and Londoners.
If I was a white person in Rotherham, or Walsall, or Macclesfield, or Plymouth, why the holy F should I vote for a Labour party led by Jeremy Corbyn OR Chuka Umunna?
You are potentially right, as long as what the Americans call 'cultural wars' stuff trumps economic, pocket book issues. We seem to have entered a period in UK when they do. Even if Labour offer SureStart, public housing schemes, jobs, apprentices, universal childcare etc etc, it seems at moment that would not be enough.
If the challenge to Jeremy Corbyn fails, Labour almost inevitably splits. So even stjohn's suggested route for David Miliband looks like a non-starter to me.
I still highly doubt (m)any of these MPs would have the guts to resign their seats and fight byelections, in order to go to a new breakaway party.
I don't think the May team should try to block Leadsom from being on the members' ballot. We need a decisive, unifying result, and it's crucial not to have any whiff of an establishment stitch-up.
Richard or anyone. Eric Pickles on Newsnight tonight I think just stated that all 5 leadership candidates have come out against "Freedom of Movement". He didn't seem to know what he was talking about but under the scrutiny of a leadership campaign do you think May will be able to keep her options and negotiating position open re Freedom of Movement and Access to the Single Market? Leadsom has stated her position fairly unequivocally.
I wonder if they could come second in 2020. Be the SNP of England and Wales.
This is their moment. If they select the right leader, with working class appeal, and working-class-friendly policies, they could supplant Labour.
I think they're over. Without the EU, and especially if the Conservatives choose a Leave leader, UKIP have lost their key USP.
Completely disagree. Labour are constitutionally incapable of following their working class, lower middle class core vote, down the anti-immigration, socially conservative, happily patriotic road.
That leaves a huge well of people for whom the posh Tories will never be acceptable, but who now find themselves alienated entirely from weird freaky metrosexual Islington Labour.
UKIP of course are ideally placed. They are patriots. They WILL talk about immigration. They're not keen on the burqa. They are possibly pro capital punishment (like 50% of the people).
The SNP destroyed Labour in Scotland, and devoured their vote. UKIP could easily do the same to Labour in England and Wales. Labour will end up the party of the Guardianistas, some ethnic minorities, and Londoners.
If I was a white person in Rotherham, or Walsall, or Macclesfield, or Plymouth, why the holy F should I vote for a Labour party led by Jeremy Corbyn OR Chuka Umunna?
You are potentially right, as long as what the Americans call 'cultural wars' stuff trumps economic, pocket book issues. We seem to have entered a period in UK when they do. Even if Labour offer SureStart, public housing schemes, jobs, apprentices, universal childcare etc etc, it seems at moment that would not be enough.
If the challenge to Jeremy Corbyn fails, Labour almost inevitably splits. So even stjohn's suggested route for David Miliband looks like a non-starter to me.
I still highly doubt (m)any of these MPs would have the guts to resign their seats and fight byelections, in order to go to a new breakaway party.
I suspect they wouldn't resign their seats and fight by elections.
It's a convention not a law.
There was a convention a few decades ago when you were first appointed to the cabinet, you resigned your seat and sought re-election.
If the challenge to Jeremy Corbyn fails, Labour almost inevitably splits. So even stjohn's suggested route for David Miliband looks like a non-starter to me.
I still highly doubt (m)any of these MPs would have the guts to resign their seats and fight byelections, in order to go to a new breakaway party.
I suspect they wouldn't resign their seats and fight by elections.
It's a convention not a law.
There was a convention a few decades ago when you were first appointed to the cabinet, you resigned your seat and sought re-election.
That convention also stopped happening.
Isn't there recall mechanisms in place now to force it happening, if just a certain % of Labour voters in a constituency demand it?
Even without that, I suspect the media pressure and taunting of how "chicken" they were would make it impossible for them to not call byelections. And since this new breakaway party would be based on the main principles behind the "Remain" campaign (pro-business, socially liberal, pro-EU), I wish these MPs good luck holding their seats across the Leave-voting northern Labour heartlands.
If the challenge to Jeremy Corbyn fails, Labour almost inevitably splits. So even stjohn's suggested route for David Miliband looks like a non-starter to me.
I'm not so sure about the split. It seems likely we will go the distance to 2020 now. The Labour rebels may well decide to wait things out for another year or two.
As its late at night, here's an idea: if I was them, I would consider engineering the SNP being made the official Opposition. This would make Corbyn invisible.
Richard or anyone. Eric Pickles on Newsnight tonight I think just stated that all 5 leadership candidates have come out against "Freedom of Movement". He didn't seem to know what he was talking about but under the scrutiny of a leadership campaign do you think May will be able to keep her options and negotiating position open re Freedom of Movement and Access to the Single Market? Leadsom has stated her position fairly unequivocally.
The problem is the other way round. Leadsom has indeed stated her position fairly unequivocally but her position is palpable nonsense. Scrutiny is going to make her position worse, not better.
Don't get me wrong, she's got talent. But she's painfully inexperienced and it shows. She also seems to be in 'tell 'em what they want to hear' mode.
If the challenge to Jeremy Corbyn fails, Labour almost inevitably splits. So even stjohn's suggested route for David Miliband looks like a non-starter to me.
I still highly doubt (m)any of these MPs would have the guts to resign their seats and fight byelections, in order to go to a new breakaway party.
I suspect they wouldn't resign their seats and fight by elections.
It's a convention not a law.
There was a convention a few decades ago when you were first appointed to the cabinet, you resigned your seat and sought re-election.
That convention also stopped happening.
Isn't there recall mechanisms in place now to force it happening, if just a certain % of Labour voters in a constituency demand it?
I don't think so. it only applies if the MP has done something illegal, been convicted, suspended by The House etc.
If the challenge to Jeremy Corbyn fails, Labour almost inevitably splits. So even stjohn's suggested route for David Miliband looks like a non-starter to me.
I'm not so sure about the split. It seems likely we will go the distance to 2020 now. The Labour rebels may well decide to wait things out for another year or two.
As its late at night, here's an idea: if I was them, I would consider engineering the SNP being made the official Opposition. This would make Corbyn invisible.
Yeah, just like Farage has been "invisible" despite having no constitutional "Opposition leader" status at all?
Regarding Labour, there is definitely a genuine and fairly serious operation which is considering the possibility of splitting off. The snippets of information I have indicate that this is being orchestrated by former ministers, rather than current MPs.
Whether it will come to anything significant is another matter. The obstacles are obviously immense.
I don't think the May team should try to block Leadsom from being on the members' ballot. We need a decisive, unifying result, and it's crucial not to have any whiff of an establishment stitch-up.
It doesn't need the May team to do anything. All it requires is enough sensible Tory MPs to outvote the nutters.
This is exactly the problem Labour had. The MPs voted for a totally unsuitable candidate none of them really wanted to appease some sense of fairness and are now completely undone, to the detriment of the country.
If you don't think Leadsom is competent, it would be a dereliction of duty to vote for her
In this case though we are talking about people not voting for the candidate they support (May) in order to vote for a candidate they don't support, to make the head to head contest easier in a runoff election.
Is it iillegitimate? No. Does it stink to high heaven? YES!
Wasn't me, I have a 4 figure negative on him already at an average of 9.63
This must be the most bonkers betting price around at the moment. Surely he should be closer to 80 than 8?
I've tried to understand this price, and here's my theory
1) Punters think Corbyn is going to last until 2020
2) David Miliband is going to become an MP by 2020
3) Labour gets shellacked in 2020
4) Labour members come to their senses
5) Elect someone who isn't tainted by the last few years
Here we are
stjohn Posts: 479 July 3 I've just thought of a line of reasoning that might explain David Miliband's price for next Labour leader. Punters may be betting on the coup failing, Corbyn leading Labour to a severe electoral defeat at the next GE, David Miliband stands for election as an MP at the next GE or beforehand in a by election and is eligible for the leadership election when Corbyn resigns as leader.
Not implausible but hardly likely.
There are rumours that Barry Sheerman will stand down for David Miliband, but I still have my doubts
Those rumours have been around for a while, probably based on the fact that the Labour MP for Huddersfield's daughter works in David Miliband's New York office - or at least did so when I last read about this story a year or so ago. Whether it's in his gift to hand over this seat in such a fashion must be open to doubt, although Miliband would be quite a catch for the local constituency party.
I am wandering through press coverage of Chris Evans leaving Top Gear, announced just over 2 hours after police announced he was facing sexual assault investigation.
Predictably, the Sun's headline begins - Presenter Probed.
Wasn't me, I have a 4 figure negative on him already at an average of 9.63
This must be the most bonkers betting price around at the moment. Surely he should be closer to 80 than 8?
I've tried to understand this price, and here's my theory
1) Punters think Corbyn is going to last until 2020
2) David Miliband is going to become an MP by 2020
3) Labour gets shellacked in 2020
4) Labour members come to their senses
5) Elect someone who isn't tainted by the last few years
Here we are
stjohn Posts: 479 July 3 I've just thought of a line of reasoning that might explain David Miliband's price for next Labour leader. Punters may be betting on the coup failing, Corbyn leading Labour to a severe electoral defeat at the next GE, David Miliband stands for election as an MP at the next GE or beforehand in a by election and is eligible for the leadership election when Corbyn resigns as leader.
Not implausible but hardly likely.
There are rumours that Barry Sheerman will stand down for David Miliband, but I still have my doubts
Those rumours have been around for a while, probably based on the fact that the Labour MP for Huddersfield's daughter works in David Miliband's New York office - or at least did so when I last read about this story a year or so ago. Whether it's in his gift to hand over this seat in such a fashion must be open to doubt, although Miliband would be quite a catch for the local constituency party.
There is no political question to which the answer is: 'David Miliband'.
I assume he's just become Labour's Bonnie Prince Charlie. He was useless in almost every dimension.
Whether it will come to anything significant is another matter. The obstacles are obviously immense.
Not least, the fact that there is no evidence the public wants a pro-business/socially liberal party, when a political campaign which was just based on that just lost the EU Referendum.
I am wandering through press coverage of Chris Evans leaving Top Gear, announced just over 2 hours after police announced he was facing sexual assault investigation.
Predictably, the Sun's headline begins - Presenter Probed.
If the challenge to Jeremy Corbyn fails, Labour almost inevitably splits. So even stjohn's suggested route for David Miliband looks like a non-starter to me.
I still highly doubt (m)any of these MPs would have the guts to resign their seats and fight byelections, in order to go to a new breakaway party.
I suspect they wouldn't resign their seats and fight by elections.
It's a convention not a law.
There was a convention a few decades ago when you were first appointed to the cabinet, you resigned your seat and sought re-election.
That convention also stopped happening.
Isn't there recall mechanisms in place now to force it happening, if just a certain % of Labour voters in a constituency demand it?
Even without that, I suspect the media pressure and taunting of how "chicken" they were would make it impossible for them to not call byelections. And since this new breakaway party would be based on the main principles behind the "Remain" campaign (pro-business, socially liberal, pro-EU), I wish these MPs good luck holding their seats across the Leave-voting northern Labour heartlands.
Media pressure on the centrists?
I don't think so. Even less so the more jump ship.
Guarantees split vote and massive Tory landslide at the next election almost irrespective of what happens between now and then.
You are potentially right, as long as what the Americans call 'cultural wars' stuff trumps economic, pocket book issues. We seem to have entered a period in UK when they do. Even if Labour offer SureStart, public housing schemes, jobs, apprentices, universal childcare etc etc, it seems at moment that would not be enough.
But the thing is, there is absolutely NOTHING NEW about huge sections of the core Labour vote holding socially conservative views. Even though Labour was always "progressive" on issues like immigration and gay rights even back in the 1960s and 1970s, they had more sense than to put their stances on their issues at the front of the Labour "shop window", because they knew those stances would enrage many white working-class supporters. They legalised homosexuality and let Commonwealth citizens emigrate to the UK VERY quietly, tried to hide it from mass public view, and told the heartlands to just focus on how the Labour government had improved their own living standards instead.
When Labour was successful between 1945 and 1979, it was only when they've taken an economically populist stance ("we'll take the rich down a peg or two and give more over to you and your family instead") -- that is the only way they can unite the white working-class and the progressive middle-class, and paper over the HUGE divisions those two groups have on social issues. That is what is needed now - but the "moderates" for all that they assert they know how to win elections want to stay subscribed to an essentially Tory line on economics, which offers NOTHING that's in WWC Labour voters' self-interests, and thus means they will continue to focus on the social issues on which they profoundly disagree with the party on.
If the challenge to Jeremy Corbyn fails, Labour almost inevitably splits. So even stjohn's suggested route for David Miliband looks like a non-starter to me.
Once we get into 2017 I may well start to back him myself though, time value of money and all that.
I contacted David last year about a non-political issue and just out of interest enquired whether he was interested in coming back to UK politics. He said no, he was happy and fulfilled doing the refugee work. Seems unlikely that it's changed.
The Freedom Association - I regret to say true nutters.
May will be undoubtedly be attacked by some Leavers for 'betrayal' when she does an EEA deal but she can position herself bang in the centre at the next election between UKIP to her right and a Labour party still likely to be dominated by Corbynism to her left
I wonder if they could come second in 2020. Be the SNP of England and Wales.
This is their moment. If they select the right leader, with working class appeal, and working-class-friendly policies, they could supplant Labour.
I think they're over. Without the EU, and especially if the Conservatives choose a Leave leader, UKIP have lost their key USP.
Completely disagree. Labour are constitutionally incapable of following their working class, lower middle class core vote, down the anti-immigration, socially conservative, happily patriotic road.
That leaves a huge well of people for whom the posh Tories will never be acceptable, but who now find themselves alienated entirely from weird freaky metrosexual Islington Labour.
UKIP of course are ideally placed. They are patriots. They WILL talk about immigration. They're not keen on the burqa. They are possibly pro capital punishment (like 50% of the people).
The SNP destroyed Labour in Scotland, and devoured their vote. UKIP could easily do the same to Labour in England and Wales. Labour will end up the party of the Guardianistas, some ethnic minorities, and Londoners.
If I was a white person in Rotherham, or Walsall, or Macclesfield, or Plymouth, why the holy F should I vote for a Labour party led by Jeremy Corbyn OR Chuka Umunna?
Labour now might as well give up on white working class anti immigration Leave voters, they are lost for them as such voters are lost for the Democrats in the US and have been since Bill Clinton's 1996 victory. If Labour win again it will be on a coalition of left-liberals, ethnic minorities and centrist voters who voted for Blair and then switched to Cameron, the next election is too late to build such a coalition, the hard left needs to be defeated first but if they lose that election then a Chuka Umunna or a Dan Jarvis or even David Miliband could potentially win in 2025 after 15 years of Tory rule
Labour: 26 seats (gaining Gower and Vale of Clwyd, but losing Ynys Môn) Conservative: 9 seats (losing Gower and Vale of Clwyd) Plaid Cymru: 4 seats (gaining Ynys Môn) Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (no change)
I wonder if they could come second in 2020. Be the SNP of England and Wales.
This is their moment. If they select the right leader, with working class appeal, and working-class-friendly policies, they could supplant Labour.
I think they're over. Without the EU, and especially if the Conservatives choose a Leave leader, UKIP have lost their key USP.
Completely disagree. Labour are constitutionally incapable of following their working class, lower middle class core vote, down the anti-immigration, socially conservative, happily patriotic road.
That leaves a huge well of people for whom the posh Tories will never be acceptable, but who now find themselves alienated entirely from weird freaky metrosexual Islington Labour.
UKIP of course are ideally placed. They are patriots. They WILL talk about immigration. They're not keen on the burqa. They are possibly pro capital punishment (like 50% of the people).
The SNP destroyed Labour in Scotland, and devoured their vote. UKIP could easily do the same to Labour in England and Wales. Labour will end up the party of the Guardianistas, some ethnic minorities, and Londoners.
If I was a white person in Rotherham, or Walsall, or Macclesfield, or Plymouth, why the holy F should I vote for a Labour party led by Jeremy Corbyn OR Chuka Umunna?
Labour now might as well give up on white working class anti immigration Leave voters, they are lost for them as such voters are lost for the Democrats in the US and have been since Bill Clinton's 1996 victory. If Labour win again it will be on a coalition of left-liberals, ethnic minorities and centrist voters who voted for Blair and then switched to Cameron, the next election is too late to build such a coalition, the hard left needs to be defeated first but if they lose that election then a Chuka Umunna or a Dan Jarvis or even David Miliband could potentially win in 2025 after 15 years of Tory rule
If Labour were to give up on "white working class Leave voters" then they are kissing goodbye to TWO THIRDS of their current seats. Not an option. And the "centrist voters who voted for Blair and then switched to Cameron" overwhelmingly voted Leave -- the Midlands bellwether seats like Nuneaton and Cannock Chase were among the biggest Leave landslides in the country.
The Democrats' strategy is not viable in a country which has far fewer ethnic minorities than the US, and with an electoral system which punishes parties that disproportionately piles up votes in big cities.
I wonder if they could come second in 2020. Be the SNP of England and Wales.
This is their moment. If they select the right leader, with working class appeal, and working-class-friendly policies, they could supplant Labour.
I think they're over. Without the EU, and especially if the Conservatives choose a Leave leader, UKIP have lost their key USP.
Completely disagree. Labour are constitutionally incapable of following their working class, lower mi If I was a white person in Rotherham, or Walsall, or Macclesfield, or Plymouth, why the holy F should I vote for a Labour party led by Jeremy Corbyn OR Chuka Umunna?
Labour now might as well give up on white working class anti immigration Leave voters, they are lost for them as such voters are lost for the Democrats in the US and have been since Bill Clinton's 1996 victory. If Labour win again it will be on a coalition of left-liberals, ethnic minorities and centrist voters who
If Labour were to give up on "white working class Leave voters" then they are kissing goodbye to TWO THIRDS of their current seats. Not an option. And the "centrist voters who voted for Blair and then switched to Cameron" overwhelmingly voted Leave -- the Midlands bellwether seats like Nuneaton and Cannock Chase were among the biggest Leave landslides in the country.
The Democrats' strategy is not viable in a country which has far fewer ethnic minorities than the US, and with an electoral system which punishes parties that disproportionately piles up votes in big cities.
No they are not, 63% of Labour voters voted Remain and the white working class Leave voters would just go to UKIP not the Tories if they put immigration above all. Seats like Nuneaton and Cannock Chase are not going to be won back by Labour now, probably ever, seats like Enfield Southgate and Worcester where Remain won or Leave won narrowly are much better target seats for Labour if they are to win back power.
Around 10% of the population is ethnic minority now, more in Labour seats or target seats and growing. It is white middle class suburban graduates who Labour should be aiming for now, they are the types of voters who voted for Blair then went for Cameron but could be won back under the right leader and are growing as a percentage of the population, the white working class are shrinking as a percentage of the population. Labour will only win them over by out Kippering the Kippers which will only lose them the suburban middle classes, the liberal left and ethnic minorities, they are on a hiding to nothing with them
No they are not, 63% of Labour voters voted Remain and the white working class Leave voters would just go to UKIP not the Tories if they put immigration above all. Seats like Nuneaton and Cannock Chase are not going to be won back by Labour now, probably ever, seats like Enfield Southgate and Worcester where Remain won or Leave won narrowly are much better target seats for Labour if they are to win back power.
Around 10% of the population is ethnic minority now, more in Labour seats or target seats and growing. It is white middle class suburban graduates who Labour should be voting for now, they are the types of voters who voted for Blair then went for Cameron but could be won back under the right leader and are growing as a percentage of the population, the white working class are shrinking as a percentage of the population. Labour will only win them over by out Kippering the Kippers which will only lose them the suburban middle classes, the liberal left and ethnic minorities, they are on a hiding to nothing with them
Irrespective of how many Labour voters voted Remain (and I suspect 63% is a big overestimate, only made by unreliable pollsters), the actual results shows that 150 Labour seats voted LEAVE, compared to 82 that voted Remain (half of those in London). Further, 39 of Labour's top 50 target seats voted Leave, very often by huge margins:
Generally, Remain voters were metropolitan-liberal Labour voters, and very wealthy ultra-Tories from the Home Counties, who didn't even vote for Blair in 1997 (the likes of Tunbridge Wells, Guildford, Mole Valley, etc.). Aka: the safest Labour voters of all (at the moment), and the safest Tory voters of all. It's utter madness to stake an electoral strategy on them.
Comments
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/alice-gross-inquest-teenager-was-unlawfully-killed-in-sexually-m/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3673879/KATIE-HOPKINS-s-one-woman-trust-mess-safely-EU-ISN-T-turncoat-Theresa.html
If it doesn't, and after the gove partisan email last night, the org is looking more and more like a creature of General Secretary Gove.
1) Punters think Corbyn is going to last until 2020
2) David Miliband is going to become an MP by 2020
3) Labour gets shellacked in 2020
4) Labour members come to their senses
5) Elect someone who isn't tainted by the last few years
Lab 34 -5
Con 23 +1
Plaid 16 +2
UKIP 16 -2
LDem 8 +2
Others 3 +1
In contrast, May must be at least 95% certain to beat Gove.
If she faces Gove, it's just about over - straight away.
Laying for an almost guaranteed 10-15% return is great when the market settles within a few weeks. Not so great when it could drag on for years.
And the Brexiteer message is Fck Em, they're on their own...
As for the functioning of the "right to exist" and "right to defend itself" phrases, you could start with usage by western leaders and representatives during massacres being committed by the IDF in Gaza. Here, for example, or any of many other places.
My other theory is that the price is a clever way to launder money
As it is your view that Israel does not in fact have the right to exist how and by whom do you propose its existence should be terminated?
I think Betfair - and the other big UK bookies, but betfair in particular - are pretty hot on money laundering.
I'm sure people occasionally try though.
stjohn Posts: 479
July 3
I've just thought of a line of reasoning that might explain David Miliband's price for next Labour leader. Punters may be betting on the coup failing, Corbyn leading Labour to a severe electoral defeat at the next GE, David Miliband stands for election as an MP at the next GE or beforehand in a by election and is eligible for the leadership election when Corbyn resigns as leader.
Not implausible but hardly likely.
This is exactly the problem Labour had. The MPs voted for a totally unsuitable candidate none of them really wanted to appease some sense of fairness and are now completely undone, to the detriment of the country.
If you don't think Leadsom is competent, it would be a dereliction of duty to vote for her
The launderers are getting much more sophisticated.
The thing they use these days is those top up debit card/currency cards, then recycle it via cash withdrawals and purchases on the card.
One organisation dealt with a customer that had accumulated over 1,000 prepaid debit cards in a month.
They are very easy to obtain
And clarification on Article 50?
To be clear, we don't need to make unilateral "guarantees". We simply state that our working assumption is that our European partners will agree bilateral residency rights, and that until there is a material change in their position, ours will not change.
My objections are twofold:
Modulo Spain and the odd minnow like Cyprus, we have more EU nationals here than Brits over there. That's an implicit leverage in and of itself.
Secondly, it's the morally correct thing to do. That's unfashionable, but there it is.
We want an amicable divorce. We have 3.2 million EU nationals here. We are leaving the EU, not trying to alienate people who should be our natural allies.
I do appreciate we're not going to agree on this. Have another Internet point in compensation.
It's a convention not a law.
There was a convention a few decades ago when you were first appointed to the cabinet, you resigned your seat and sought re-election.
That convention also stopped happening.
https://twitter.com/tfa4freedom/status/749982820903186434
Even without that, I suspect the media pressure and taunting of how "chicken" they were would make it impossible for them to not call byelections. And since this new breakaway party would be based on the main principles behind the "Remain" campaign (pro-business, socially liberal, pro-EU), I wish these MPs good luck holding their seats across the Leave-voting northern Labour heartlands.
As its late at night, here's an idea: if I was them, I would consider engineering the SNP being made the official Opposition. This would make Corbyn invisible.
Don't get me wrong, she's got talent. But she's painfully inexperienced and it shows. She also seems to be in 'tell 'em what they want to hear' mode.
Defecting doesn't count
https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/750054034166411265
Whether it will come to anything significant is another matter. The obstacles are obviously immense.
Is it iillegitimate? No. Does it stink to high heaven? YES!
Predictably, the Sun's headline begins - Presenter Probed.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1387774/top-gear-host-chris-evans-facing-sexual-assault-investigation-police-confirm/
I assume he's just become Labour's Bonnie Prince Charlie. He was useless in almost every dimension.
I don't think so. Even less so the more jump ship.
Guarantees split vote and massive Tory landslide at the next election almost irrespective of what happens between now and then.
When Labour was successful between 1945 and 1979, it was only when they've taken an economically populist stance ("we'll take the rich down a peg or two and give more over to you and your family instead") -- that is the only way they can unite the white working-class and the progressive middle-class, and paper over the HUGE divisions those two groups have on social issues. That is what is needed now - but the "moderates" for all that they assert they know how to win elections want to stay subscribed to an essentially Tory line on economics, which offers NOTHING that's in WWC Labour voters' self-interests, and thus means they will continue to focus on the social issues on which they profoundly disagree with the party on.
Labour: 26 seats (gaining Gower and Vale of Clwyd, but losing Ynys Môn)
Conservative: 9 seats (losing Gower and Vale of Clwyd)
Plaid Cymru: 4 seats (gaining Ynys Môn)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (no change)
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2016/07/04/the-new-welsh-political-barometer-poll-3/
The Democrats' strategy is not viable in a country which has far fewer ethnic minorities than the US, and with an electoral system which punishes parties that disproportionately piles up votes in big cities.
Around 10% of the population is ethnic minority now, more in Labour seats or target seats and growing. It is white middle class suburban graduates who Labour should be aiming for now, they are the types of voters who voted for Blair then went for Cameron but could be won back under the right leader and are growing as a percentage of the population, the white working class are shrinking as a percentage of the population. Labour will only win them over by out Kippering the Kippers which will only lose them the suburban middle classes, the liberal left and ethnic minorities, they are on a hiding to nothing with them
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/750077308069961728
https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisapplegate/why-a-pro-eu-party-could-be-screwed-in-the-next-election?utm_term=.lsr3G8mPY#.tbNzoJjG5
Generally, Remain voters were metropolitan-liberal Labour voters, and very wealthy ultra-Tories from the Home Counties, who didn't even vote for Blair in 1997 (the likes of Tunbridge Wells, Guildford, Mole Valley, etc.). Aka: the safest Labour voters of all (at the moment), and the safest Tory voters of all. It's utter madness to stake an electoral strategy on them.
@Joey7Barton: Hope @jeremycorbyn hangs in there. Disgrace what has gone on.