As a Conservative member, I would be absolutely incensed if I didn't get to vote on the Leadership/PM. My membership card is "highly likely" to be cut into small pieces and I will take it back in person and a refund asked for.
These "senior tories" should remember we put them in Parliament and we can take that privilege away.
Brent had 40% voting Leave and is 100% in London. It was meant to be one of the most Remain councils, but the bourgeois Islington and Wandsworth were easily more Remain friendly.
52% voted Leave across the UK, so even 40% is 12% less
I assume you are studying for a degree in stating the obvious
Its still hardly a ringing endorsement of Remain.
The election obviously was not a ringing endorsement of Remain because they lost!! The point is Remain comfortably won inner London and every council area in the inner city
NZ offering us their senior trade deal negotiators made my day. We've already 11 countries eyeing our newly independent status. 65 million buyers have said Hiya to the rest of the world.
What's not to like?
Those trade deals are going to take a minimum of four years to get off the ground and as @rcs1000 has pointed out on a number of occasions, we need to negotiate from a position of strength. A year long recession followed by rising unemployment isn't the position we want to be looking for trade deals from because other nations will know how desperate we are to sign. Like it or not, 35-38% of our exports go to the EU. We can't face barriers to that trade and lose the income on the hopes of signing non-EU deals in the meantime. It is a fantastical policy position.
The real world solution is to stay in the single market, get a fig leaf on free movement and then reform the benefits system so people can't come here and after 90 days claim housing benefits, tax credits and other welfare without having paid into the system. We also need to do that for our own citizens, the work incentive in this country is awful compared to other European countries. Let's fix what we can rather than restrict the markets. Supply side reforms are the answer, not restrictions on the markets, as a Tory or someone on the right I'm amazed you can't see it.
You've no idea and just guessing. As are most other PBers.
No, he's just part of the "City caucus" I think its called "Well off libertarians with nice jobs, expensive houses and good pensions for EEA/EFTA" or something
Imagine what we'd have thought if a country from behind the Iron Curtain had a referendum to decide if it wanted to change the status quo and, when they voted for change, the leader quit, installed a colleague who voted for the status quo, and ignored the outcome of the vote
Well luckily that is not going to happen is it. May has said BREXIT means BREXIT and was the most popular choice amongst the public for next PM in a yougov poll last week. The referendum was about leaving the EU not then refusing to join EFTA as well!
"May has said BREXIT means BREXIT" is not a lot to rely on. She has to say that or she can write off her chances. Whether she means it is another matter.
Of course she means it, most Tory voters voted Leave, she cannot ignore that
Cobblers. She can deliver an EEA version that suits most Remainers and hurts most Leavers trust.
Imagine what we'd have thought if a country from behind the Iron Curtain had a referendum to decide if it wanted to change the status quo and, when they voted for change, the leader quit, installed a colleague who voted for the status quo, and ignored the outcome of the vote
I love the Iron Curtain comparison - it's so true.
Its completely fatuous.
On what planet is Cameron 'installing May'?
Sorry, 'The Party' installed
...the person who had overseen breaking of their key GE pledge/lie that the public just voted against
Provided she unfucks the economy and stabilizes GBP, she can do rude things with swine for all I care. We've just had months of the clown act of Boris & Gove pratting around promising contradictory things and Screaming At Migrants. Now I'd like an adult running the country please
I tend to agree with Benedict. If this goes to the wider party with May and Leadsom the fianl two I certainly think it's possible they'll go for Leadsom.
Remember, the The Shires went LEAVE. A lot of those people who voted for Brexit would be Conservative members who are going to get a vote a vote in this thing.
They thought nothing of voting against Cameron (and thus destroying his career) so they certainly won't have any qualms about voting against Theresa if Andrea is the last Brexiteer standing.
Theresa may have to try and buy her off with an offer for CoE next week...
That's what I'm thinking. May calls Leadsom and says "It ends now - and I make you Chancellor. Or we fight on - and you will not be in Cabinet." Tough call for Leadsom
If they fought on and Leadsom lost but got a decent amount of support it would be even braver of May to keep her out of the Cabinet. If I were Leadsom I'd call her bluff.
Imagine what we'd have thought if a country from behind the Iron Curtain had a referendum to decide if it wanted to change the status quo and, when they voted for change, the leader quit, installed a colleague who voted for the status quo, and ignored the outcome of the vote
I love the Iron Curtain comparison - it's so true.
Its completely fatuous.
On what planet is Cameron 'installing May'?
Sorry, 'The Party' installed
...the person who had overseen breaking of their key GE pledge/lie that the public just voted against
Fair enough - but the bonkers immigration pledge lies at Cameron's door, not May's.
Yes, she was the first to downgrade it to "ambition" I believe.
What will be will be, I just happen to think that if we were watching this on BBC news coverage of 1980s Romania, we would be raising an eyebrow and saying "Well there's a surprise, nothing has changed"
You've no idea and just guessing. As are most other PBers.
Guessing about what, trade deals? That's the timetable for a bilateral trade deal between two similarly sized economies. At a push three years is doable, but four years for something comprehensive is not out if the question. It's quite a common timeframe. The EU trade deal could be anything from 4 years to 10 years going on past experience.
The EFTA-China deal took three years and seven months to complete and it is not very comprehensive and very one-sided in favour of the PRC. It's more like a trade promotion deal than a free trade deal. This idea you have that we can reconstitute the glory days of the commonwealth overnight is a fantasy. We are where we are and it isn't a position of strength, the world can look at our current account deficit and they know we are going to be desperate.
Provided she unfucks the economy and stabilizes GBP, she can do rude things with swine for all I care. We've just had months of the clown act of Boris & Gove pratting around promising contradictory things and Screaming At Migrants. Now I'd like an adult running the country please
Yup
That is what most Tory MPs want, and what most Tory members with jobs and mortgages want.
The Nutters and Fruitcakes won't be happy, but they never are.
Imagine what we'd have thought if a country from behind the Iron Curtain had a referendum to decide if it wanted to change the status quo and, when they voted for change, the leader quit, installed a colleague who voted for the status quo, and ignored the outcome of the vote
Well luckily that is not going to happen is it. May has said BREXIT means BREXIT and was the most popular choice amongst the public for next PM in a yougov poll last week. The referendum was about leaving the EU not then refusing to join EFTA as well!
This is another bubble meme.
How many voters in northern council estates, or come to that middle class homes in the Shires have even heard of EFTA let alone have views for or against us being part of it. The idea that more than a handful of political obsessives would have voted for it if it was on the ballot is bizarre.
Many middle class Leave voters in the Home Counties would be happy with EFTA and the single market, add them to the 48% Remain vote and you have a majority of the country
Quite a few of the 48% remain vote don't like high immigration but bought into Project Bullshit, now it has no credibility they might well be more adventurous next time.
NZ offering us their senior trade deal negotiators made my day. We've already 11 countries eyeing our newly independent status. 65 million buyers have said Hiya to the rest of the world.
What's not to like?
Nothing. The problem now becomes we have to do trade deals with onehundredandeightyblah countries within, say, two years, and we don't have the staff to do it. So no pressure, then.
Oh my! We're so overwhelmed by orders we've failed!! We should have Remained!!
Seriously, what pathetic bolleaux. Any serious HMG would employ more competent negotiators to do the job. It's not as if there aren't dozens and dozens of countries who do this every day.
Brent had 40% voting Leave and is 100% in London. It was meant to be one of the most Remain councils, but the bourgeois Islington and Wandsworth were easily more Remain friendly.
52% voted Leave across the UK, so even 40% is 12% less
I assume you are studying for a degree in stating the obvious
Its still hardly a ringing endorsement of Remain.
The election obviously was not a ringing endorsement of Remain because they lost!! The point is Remain comfortably won inner London and every council area in the inner city
NZ offering us their senior trade deal negotiators made my day. We've already 11 countries eyeing our newly independent status. 65 million buyers have said Hiya to the rest of the world.
What's not to like?
Those trade deals are going to take a minimum of four years to get off the ground and as @rcs1000 has pointed out on a number of occasions, we need to negotiate from a position of strength. A year long recession followed by rising unemployment isn't the position we want to be looking for trade deals from because other nations will know how desperate we are to sign. Like it or not, 35-38% of our exports go to the EU. We can't face barriers to that trade and lose the income on the hopes of signing non-EU deals in the meantime. It is a fantastical policy position.
The real world solution is to stay in the single market, get a fig leaf on free movement and then reform the benefits system so people can't come here and after 90 days claim housing benefits, tax credits and other welfare without having paid into the system. We also need to do that for our own citizens, the work incentive in this country is awful compared to other European countries. Let's fix what we can rather than restrict the markets. Supply side reforms are the answer, not restrictions on the markets, as a Tory or someone on the right I'm amazed you can't see it.
If the work incentive in this country is so awful compared to other European countries, how come such a large proportion of our population is in work compared to other European countries?
Turnbull concludes saying the L/NP the only party capable of forming a government and urges all Australians to come together to face global economic challenges and his policy and plan is base on confidence, optimism and entrepreneurship, the alternative is political escapism from the real world and more debt, stagnation and more taxes.
Imagine what we'd have thought if a country from behind the Iron Curtain had a referendum to decide if it wanted to change the status quo and, when they voted for change, the leader quit, installed a colleague who voted for the status quo, and ignored the outcome of the vote
Well luckily that is not going to happen is it. May has said BREXIT means BREXIT and was the most popular choice amongst the public for next PM in a yougov poll last week. The referendum was about leaving the EU not then refusing to join EFTA as well!
"May has said BREXIT means BREXIT" is not a lot to rely on. She has to say that or she can write off her chances. Whether she means it is another matter.
Of course she means it, most Tory voters voted Leave, she cannot ignore that
You wanna bet?
Well if she ignores it she risks losing them to UKIP, she is not that stupid
@MichaelLCrick: If May gets good majority among Tory MPs, but a Brexiter wins party members, Tories could end up in very similar mess to Labour
No shit
And when it comes to vicious in-fighting.....the Tories leave Labour in the dust....
But at least they have the spine to get on with it. Not spend months sending tweets in an angry font then bottling when real action is called upon. How you can support people who lack the character to actually follow up on their words defeats me.
NZ offering us their senior trade deal negotiators made my day. We've already 11 countries eyeing our newly independent status. 65 million buyers have said Hiya to the rest of the world.
What's not to like?
Nothing. The problem now becomes we have to do trade deals with onehundredandeightyblah countries within, say, two years, and we don't have the staff to do it. So no pressure, then.
Oh my! We're so overwhelmed by orders we've failed!! We should have Remained!!
Seriously, what pathetic bolleaux. Any serious HMG would employ more competent negotiators to do the job. It's not as if there aren't dozens and dozens of countries who do this every day.
How many experienced international trade negotiators are kicking around for hire at the moment?
Imagine what we'd have thought if a country from behind the Iron Curtain had a referendum to decide if it wanted to change the status quo and, when they voted for change, the leader quit, installed a colleague who voted for the status quo, and ignored the outcome of the vote
Well luckily that is not going to happen is it. May has said BREXIT means BREXIT and was the most popular choice amongst the public for next PM in a yougov poll last week. The referendum was about leaving the EU not then refusing to join EFTA as well!
"May has said BREXIT means BREXIT" is not a lot to rely on. She has to say that or she can write off her chances. Whether she means it is another matter.
Of course she means it, most Tory voters voted Leave, she cannot ignore that
You wanna bet?
Well if she ignores it she risks losing them to UKIP, she is not that stupid
Dave was. He continued to piss off the non-metro part of his party until they were just about to storm out the door to UKIP and then had to come up with the referendum at the last minute to bale himself out.
Imagine what we'd have thought if a country from behind the Iron Curtain had a referendum to decide if it wanted to change the status quo and, when they voted for change, the leader quit, installed a colleague who voted for the status quo, and ignored the outcome of the vote
Well luckily that is not going to happen is it. May has said BREXIT means BREXIT and was the most popular choice amongst the public for next PM in a yougov poll last week. The referendum was about leaving the EU not then refusing to join EFTA as well!
"May has said BREXIT means BREXIT" is not a lot to rely on. She has to say that or she can write off her chances. Whether she means it is another matter.
Of course she means it, most Tory voters voted Leave, she cannot ignore that
Cobblers. She can deliver an EEA version that suits most Remainers and hurts most Leavers trust.
That's a giant electoral raspberry in the making.
Many Home Counties areas voted Remain, those that voted Leave only did so relatively narrowly. Most Middle class Tories will be happy with the EEA on the whole, add them to the 48% who voted Remain you have a clear EEA majority. The white working class Leave voters may not be happy with free movement, nor will some lower middle class Tories but they comprise about a third of the country, enough for a significant UKIP protest vote but nothing more
Imagine what we'd have thought if a country from behind the Iron Curtain had a referendum to decide if it wanted to change the status quo and, when they voted for change, the leader quit, installed a colleague who voted for the status quo, and ignored the outcome of the vote
Well luckily that is not going to happen is it. May has said BREXIT means BREXIT and was the most popular choice amongst the public for next PM in a yougov poll last week. The referendum was about leaving the EU not then refusing to join EFTA as well!
This is another bubble meme.
How many voters in northern council estates, or come to that middle class homes in the Shires have even heard of EFTA let alone have views for or against us being part of it. The idea that more than a handful of political obsessives would have voted for it if it was on the ballot is bizarre.
Many middle class Leave voters in the Home Counties would be happy with EFTA and the single market, add them to the 48% Remain vote and you have a majority of the country
Quite a few of the 48% remain vote don't like high immigration but bought into Project Bullshit, now it has no credibility they might well be more adventurous next time.
A 12% fall in Sterling isn't exactly small. I think it was all quit overblown you can't say that a 12% fall in the currency is a nothing movement. It's suitable for us at the moment, but if we don't get some certainty over our future it could turn into a Sterling crisis. Parity with EUR and 1.10 with USD could be what we're looking at if the governing proposes WTO with no plan. It also puts away any chance of us drawing out other countries to the EEA.
We are the test case. Loads of other countries are looking at whether we can make being outside of the EU work, if we can we will show that an economic partnership doesn't need a political union. All of those Eurocrats will be left red faced as we benefit from the single market and benefit from non-EU trade without having to give up our sovereignty to them.
Japanese senate election update: When polled a large proportion of Japanese voters usually reply "I do not support any party". So a couple of enterprising candidates are running in the proportional section as a party called "I do not support any party".
Brent had 40% voting Leave and is 100% in London. It was meant to be one of the most Remain councils, but the bourgeois Islington and Wandsworth were easily more Remain friendly.
52% voted Leave across the UK, so even 40% is 12% less
I assume you are studying for a degree in stating the obvious
Its still hardly a ringing endorsement of Remain.
The election obviously was not a ringing endorsement of Remain because they lost!! The point is Remain comfortably won inner London and every council area in the inner city
NZ offering us their senior trade deal negotiators made my day. We've already 11 countries eyeing our newly independent status. 65 million buyers have said Hiya to the rest of the world.
What's not to like?
The real world solution is to stay in the single market, get a fig leaf on free movement and then reform the benefits system so people can't come here and after 90 days claim housing benefits, tax credits and other welfare without having paid into the system. We also need to do that for our own citizens, the work incentive in this country is awful compared to other European countries. Let's fix what we can rather than restrict the markets. Supply side reforms are the answer, not restrictions on the markets, as a Tory or someone on the right I'm amazed you can't see it.
I generally agree with Max. The WTO elements of the IFS report are the least useful because they aren't particularly granular, and I'm not an expert on our precise export mix (the OT statistics are as detailed as I get).
If we HAD to go WTO, it would actually be WTO MFN. That sets tariff levels at 3.6% at a minimum and 12% for agricultural produce. There are intermediate levels as well, depending on sector.
The EU has 33 FTAs in addition to the single market. EEA has 26 (some overlap, and some with different conditions). WTO MFN is clearly the least favoured of our immediate options from a pure trade perspective. Our export businesses drive ~10% of the UK's GDP - Robert or Max could refine that figure I'm sure.
It's worth saying that even though WTO is the worst of the modeled positions I've seen, it's still not a catastrophe UNLESS one believes that financial passporting is a red line. I have no expertise to say one way or another.
The infamous IFS report I keep quoting seems to favour the NIESR models (scenarios WTO+, WTO, FTA, EEA). Deviations from the OBR forecasts by 2030 are -7.8%, -3.2%, -2.1%, -1.8%). I'll add the standard disclaimer; that's not an absolute contraction, the numbers are expressed relative to the OBR baseline.
Imagine what we'd have thought if a country from behind the Iron Curtain had a referendum to decide if it wanted to change the status quo and, when they voted for change, the leader quit, installed a colleague who voted for the status quo, and ignored the outcome of the vote
Well luckily that is not going to happen is it. May has said BREXIT means BREXIT and was the most popular choice amongst the public for next PM in a yougov poll last week. The referendum was about leaving the EU not then refusing to join EFTA as well!
"May has said BREXIT means BREXIT" is not a lot to rely on. She has to say that or she can write off her chances. Whether she means it is another matter.
Of course she means it, most Tory voters voted Leave, she cannot ignore that
You wanna bet?
Well if she ignores it she risks losing them to UKIP, she is not that stupid
Dave was. He continued to piss off the non-metro part of his party until they were just about to storm out the door to UKIP and then had to come up with the referendum at the last minute to bale himself out.
And then hoped he'd end up in another Coalition to forget about it. Oh, how we're laughing now.
I tend to agree with Benedict. If this goes to the wider party with May and Leadsom the fianl two I certainly think it's possible they'll go for Leadsom.
Remember, the The Shires went LEAVE. A lot of those people who voted for Brexit would be Conservative members who are going to get a vote a vote in this thing.
They thought nothing of voting against Cameron (and thus destroying his career) so they certainly won't have any qualms about voting against Theresa if Andrea is the last Brexiteer standing.
Theresa may have to try and buy her off with an offer for CoE next week...
That's what I'm thinking. May calls Leadsom and says "It ends now - and I make you Chancellor. Or we fight on - and you will not be in Cabinet." Tough call for Leadsom
If they fought on and Leadsom lost but got a decent amount of support it would be even braver of May to keep her out of the Cabinet. If I were Leadsom I'd call her bluff.
So would I. I thought Leadsom did OK on the campaign trail, I haven't seen May on one.
I'm no fan of David Mellor but I had to agree with him when he said May was only a 'success' as home secretary because for six years she ducked every major issue going.
She'd be a dreadful choice for PM at a time when we need someone who doesn;t react to every ScottP wailer out there when a policy runs into a bit of heavy weather.
Brent had 40% voting Leave and is 100% in London. It was meant to be one of the most Remain councils, but the bourgeois Islington and Wandsworth were easily more Remain friendly.
52% voted Leave across the UK, so even 40% is 12% less
I assume you are studying for a degree in stating the obvious
Its still hardly a ringing endorsement of Remain.
The election obviously was not a ringing endorsement of Remain because they lost!! The point is Remain comfortably won inner London and every council area in the inner city
NZ offering us their senior trade deal negotiators made my day. We've already 11 countries eyeing our newly independent status. 65 million buyers have said Hiya to the rest of the world.
What's not to like?
Those trade deals are going to take a minimum of four years to get off the ground and as @rcs1000 has pointed out on a number of occasions, we need to negotiate from a position of strength. A year long recession followed by rising unemployment isn't the position we want to be looking for trade deals from because other nations will know how desperate we are to sign. Like it or not, 35-38% of our exports go to the EU. We can't face barriers to that trade and lose the income on the hopes of signing non-EU deals in the meantime. It is a fantastical policy position.
The real world solution is to stay in the single market, get a fig leaf on free movement and then reform the benefits system so people can't come here and after 90 days claim housing benefits, tax credits and other welfare without having paid into the system. We also need to do that for our own citizens, the work incentive in this country is awful compared to other European countries. Let's fix what we can rather than restrict the markets. Supply side reforms are the answer, not restrictions on the markets, as a Tory or someone on the right I'm amazed you can't see it.
It needs to be more than a fig leaf. People care more about outcomes than abstracts. Reduce unskilled immigration and people will be fine with FoM I think.
Mr. HYUFD, but aren't the Home Counties mostly safe blue?
If 2/3 of the broad support for the blues voted Leave, pissing them off may hit the Conservatives in the marginals.
Indeed, many home counties seats from Epsom to Tunbridge Wells to Guildford and Mole Valley voted Remain and areas like South Bucks which voted Leave only did so narrowly but Tory marginal areas like Harlow and Thurrock and Thanet and Medway were strongly Leave and at risk to UKIP
Oh! So they are changing the basis of their legal system, massively slashing their top rates of tax, making it considerably easier to sack people, who knew!
Imagine what we'd have thought if a country from behind the Iron Curtain had a referendum to decide if it wanted to change the status quo and, when they voted for change, the leader quit, installed a colleague who voted for the status quo, and ignored the outcome of the vote
Well luckily that is not going to happen is it. May has said BREXIT means BREXIT and was the most popular choice amongst the public for next PM in a yougov poll last week. The referendum was about leaving the EU not then refusing to join EFTA as well!
"May has said BREXIT means BREXIT" is not a lot to rely on. She has to say that or she can write off her chances. Whether she means it is another matter.
Of course she means it, most Tory voters voted Leave, she cannot ignore that
You wanna bet?
Well if she ignores it she risks losing them to UKIP, she is not that stupid
Dave was. He continued to piss off the non-metro part of his party until they were just about to storm out the door to UKIP and then had to come up with the referendum at the last minute to bale himself out.
Mr. M, please do post it in the comments (I don't think any signing in is required, and should it be auto-moderated [happens now and then] I'll unblock it when I post the pre-race piece).
Oh! So they are changing the basis of their legal system, massively slashing their top rates of tax, making it considerably easier to sack people, who knew!
I can see a rush to set up in the most business unfriendly place of any major economy
It needs to be more than a fig leaf. People care more about outcomes than abstracts. Reduce unskilled immigration and people will be fine with FoM I think.
As SeanT keeps pointing out, crashing our economy was a really stupid way of reducing immigration, but it will undoubtedly be effective
The migration problem will sort itself in the short term. Someone who knows how to count will need to sort the economy.
I tend to agree with Benedict. If this goes to the wider party with May and Leadsom the fianl two I certainly think it's possible they'll go for Leadsom.
Remember, the The Shires went LEAVE. A lot of those people who voted for Brexit would be Conservative members who are going to get a vote a vote in this thing.
They thought nothing of voting against Cameron (and thus destroying his career) so they certainly won't have any qualms about voting against Theresa if Andrea is the last Brexiteer standing.
Theresa may have to try and buy her off with an offer for CoE next week...
That's what I'm thinking. May calls Leadsom and says "It ends now - and I make you Chancellor. Or we fight on - and you will not be in Cabinet." Tough call for Leadsom
Doesn't work: if Leadsom does well in the members ballot, May has no choice but to give her a senior role. Maybe not Chancellor, but not DfID or NI either. My guess would be Health (oh the irony) or BIS
Oh! So they are changing the basis of their legal system, massively slashing their top rates of tax, making it considerably easier to sack people, who knew!
Any Frenchman who knows anything about financial services already works in Switzerland.
Brent had 40% voting Leave and is 100% in London. It was meant to be one of the most Remain councils, but the bourgeois Islington and Wandsworth were easily more Remain friendly.
52% voted Leave across the UK, so even 40% is 12% less
I assume you are studying for a degree in stating the obvious
Its still hardly a ringing endorsement of Remain.
The election obviously was not a ringing endorsement of Remain because they lost!! The point is Remain comfortably won inner London and every council area in the inner city
NZ offering us their senior trade deal negotiators made my day. We've already 11 countries eyeing our newly independent status. 65 million buyers have said Hiya to the rest of the world.
What's not to like?
Those trade deals are going to take a minimum of four years to get off the ground and as @rcs1000 has pointed out on a number of occasions, we need to negotiate from a position of strength. A year long recession followed by rising unemployment isn't the position we want to be looking for trade deals from because other nations will know how desperate we are to sign. Like it or not, 35-38% of our exports go to the EU. We can't face barriers to that trade and lose the income on the hopes of signing non-EU deals in the meantime. It is a fantastical policy position.
The real world solution is to stay in the single market, get a fig leaf on free movement and then reform the benefits system so people can't come here and after 90 days claim housing benefits, tax credits and other welfare without having paid into the system. We also need to do that for our own citizens, the work incentive in this country is awful compared to other European countries. Let's fix what we can rather than restrict the markets. Supply side reforms are the answer, not restrictions on the markets, as a Tory or someone on the right I'm amazed you can't see it.
It needs to be more than a fig leaf. People care more about outcomes than abstracts. Reduce unskilled immigration and people will be fine with FoM I think.
I think we could do a few things ourselves. We need to axe in working benefits, add English language requirements for certain industries, make benefits contributory. On the EU side we could ask for an EU wide increase in waiting days to a year and have them start only once working status is achieved, or for self employed the first invoice date. I think those two moves alone would drastically reduce unskilled and low paid migration.
Oh! So they are changing the basis of their legal system, massively slashing their top rates of tax, making it considerably easier to sack people, who knew!
I can see a rush to set up in the most business unfriendly place of any major economy
As of last week, we are the most business unfriendly place of any major economy.
Oh! So they are changing the basis of their legal system, massively slashing their top rates of tax, making it considerably easier to sack people, who knew!
I can see a rush to set up in the most business unfriendly place of any major economy
As of last week, we are the most business unfriendly place of any major economy.
Y'all are going to have to back up that assertion with some actual data. I'm pretty confident you won't. Surprise me.
Labour will soon be 500,000 strong,a true mass membership party.None of the party's servants in Westminster can ignore that.The Tory party looks to have well it stitch-up to avoid their membership.
Oh! So they are changing the basis of their legal system, massively slashing their top rates of tax, making it considerably easier to sack people, who knew!
I can see a rush to set up in the most business unfriendly place of any major economy
As of last week, we are the most business unfriendly place of any major economy.
How? Granted there is a bit of uncertainity at the moment but
Brent had 40% voting Leave and is 100% in London. It was meant to be one of the most Remain councils, but the bourgeois Islington and Wandsworth were easily more Remain friendly.
52% voted Leave across the UK, so even 40% is 12% less
I assume you are studying for a degree in stating the obvious
Its still hardly a ringing endorsement of Remain.
The election obviously was not a ringing endorsement of Remain because they lost!! The point is Remain comfortably won inner London and every council area in the inner city
NZ offering us their senior trade deal negotiators made my day. We've already 11 countries eyeing our newly independent status. 65 million buyers have said Hiya to the rest of the world.
What's not to like?
Those trade deals are going to take a minimum of four years to get off the ground and as @rcs1000 has pointed out on a number of occasions, we need to negotiate from a position of strength. A year long recession followed by rising unemployment isn't the position we want to be looking for trade deals from because other nations will know how desperate we are to sign. Like it or not, 35-38% of our exports go to the EU. We can't face barriers to that trade and lose the income on the hopes of signing non-EU deals in the meantime. It is a fantastical policy position.
The real
It needs to be more than a fig leaf. People care more about outcomes than abstracts. Reduce unskilled immigration and people will be fine with FoM I think.
I think we could do a few things ourselves. We need to axe in working benefits, add English language requirements for certain industries, make benefits contributory. On the EU side we could ask for an EU wide increase in waiting days to a year and have them start only once working status is achieved, or for self employed the first invoice date. I think those two moves alone would drastically reduce unskilled and low paid migration.
Agree with much of that but would have a basic minimum for benefits with higher benefits dependent on NI contribution like Germany
Oh! So they are changing the basis of their legal system, massively slashing their top rates of tax, making it considerably easier to sack people, who knew!
I can see a rush to set up in the most business unfriendly place of any major economy
As of last week, we are the most business unfriendly place of any major economy.
Have you ever been the director of a french business ?
I think we could do a few things ourselves. We need to axe in working benefits, add English language requirements for certain industries, make benefits contributory. On the EU side we could ask for an EU wide increase in waiting days to a year and have them start only once working status is achieved, or for self employed the first invoice date. I think those two moves alone would drastically reduce unskilled and low paid migration.
We could, and they are good things to do. Sadly there is no chance that the bedwetting end of Tory Party would support it and with the wafer thin majority it won't happen.
Imagine what we'd have thought if a country from behind the Iron Curtain had a referendum to decide if it wanted to change the status quo and, when they voted for change, the leader quit, installed a colleague who voted for the status quo, and ignored the outcome of the vote
Well luckily that is not going to happen is it. May has said BREXIT means BREXIT and was the most popular choice amongst the public for next PM in a yougov poll last week. The referendum was about leaving the EU not then refusing to join EFTA as well!
Tell me honestly if you think Leave would have won had they campaigned on joining EFTA and leaving FOM pretty much as it is now?
Oh! So they are changing the basis of their legal system, massively slashing their top rates of tax, making it considerably easier to sack people, who knew!
I can see a rush to set up in the most business unfriendly place of any major economy
As of last week, we are the most business unfriendly place of any major economy.
How? Granted there is a bit of uncertainity at the moment but
Brent had 40% voting Leave and is 100% in London. It was meant to be one of the most Remain councils, but the bourgeois Islington and Wandsworth were easily more Remain friendly.
52% voted Leave across the UK, so even 40% is 12% less
I assume you are studying for a degree in stating the obvious
Its still hardly a ringing endorsement of Remain.
The election obviously was not a ringing endorsement of Remain because they lost!! The point is Remain comfortably won inner London and every council area in the inner city
NZ offering us their senior trade deal negotiators made my day. We've already 11 countries eyeing our newly independent status. 65 million buyers have said Hiya to the rest of the world.
What's not to like?
Those trade deals are going to take a minimum of four years to get off the ground and as @rcs1000 has pointed out on a number of occasions, we need to negotiate from a position of strength. A year long recession followed by rising unemployment isn't the position we want to be looking for trade deals from because other nations will know how desperate we are to sign. Like it or not, 35-38% of our exports go to the EU. We can't face barriers to that trade and lose the income on the hopes of signing non-EU deals in the meantime. It is a fantastical policy position.
The real
It needs to be more than a fig leaf. People care more about outcomes than abstracts. Reduce unskilled immigration and people will be fine with FoM I think.
I think we could do a few things ourselves. We need to axe in working benefits, add English language requirements for certain industries, make benefits contributory. On the EU side we could ask for an EU wide increase in waiting days to a year and have them start only once working status is achieved, or for self employed the first invoice date. I think those two moves alone would drastically reduce unskilled and low paid migration.
Agree with much of that but would have a basic minimum for benefits with higher benefits dependent on NI contribution like Germany
Why? People should be encouraged to save and to work. If they have nothing assistance should be provided in the form of food vouchers until they get back into work.
It's been a long time since I can agree wholeheartedly with an OGH thread, but I concur absolutely with what he has written above. One only has to read the missing Telegraph piece on May that Guy fawks has published, to realise that she could be a disaster in waiting.
Oh! So they are changing the basis of their legal system, massively slashing their top rates of tax, making it considerably easier to sack people, who knew!
I can see a rush to set up in the most business unfriendly place of any major economy
As of last week, we are the most business unfriendly place of any major economy.
I think there's a little bit more to business friendliness than 'being in the EU'.....
The World Bank (I know, I know 'experts in the pay of the EU') ranks the UK at number 6, the EU at 31. (Germany is 15, France 27.....) in terms of 'Ease of doing business':
Imagine what we'd have thought if a country from behind the Iron Curtain had a referendum to decide if it wanted to change the status quo and, when they voted for change, the leader quit, installed a colleague who voted for the status quo, and ignored the outcome of the vote
Well luckily that is not going to happen is it. May has said BREXIT means BREXIT and was the most popular choice amongst the public for next PM in a yougov poll last week. The referendum was about leaving the EU not then refusing to join EFTA as well!
Tell me honestly if you think Leave would have won had they campaigned on joining EFTA and leaving FOM pretty much as it is now?
No, I don't think they would have won. There's little point in dissembling in my view.
What will happen in practice is that the slowdown in the UK economy, combined with a recovering EU economy will probably cause immigration to drop in the short term, almost irrespective of what the UK government actually does.
Oh! So they are changing the basis of their legal system, massively slashing their top rates of tax, making it considerably easier to sack people, who knew!
I can see a rush to set up in the most business unfriendly place of any major economy
As of last week, we are the most business unfriendly place of any major economy.
Y'all are going to have to back up that assertion with some actual data. I'm pretty confident you won't. Surprise me.
TLDR: Instability is unattractive.
Long form: As of this moment the regulatory framework governing investment in the UK is in doubt. The Government is rudderless and the proposed EU replacements are either inferior (WTO rules) or not yet committed to (EEA/EFTA). The currency is crashing, so the value of future investment cannot be guessed at because the exchange rate is unstable. Previous personnel who may have found it easy to locate here may not now do so, and existing personnel are leaving. Employement conditions are not attractive, with a minumum wage in place and a larger one planned. Property prices (Times article last Saturday) are predicted by fall 10% compound over the next two years
It doesn't matter how good the UK was, or how good it will be in the future. The point is that right now, at this time of transition, investors don't know what they're getting into, don't know what the value will be of the money they get out, can't put people in, can't stop people leaving, and anything they buy now will soon be worth less. Until this uncertainty is resolved, investors will steer clear of the UK.
Comments
These "senior tories" should remember we put them in Parliament and we can take that privilege away.
Bring It On...
That's a giant electoral raspberry in the making.
Lucky they can get al the funding they need from the £350m...
What will be will be, I just happen to think that if we were watching this on BBC news coverage of 1980s Romania, we would be raising an eyebrow and saying "Well there's a surprise, nothing has changed"
The EFTA-China deal took three years and seven months to complete and it is not very comprehensive and very one-sided in favour of the PRC. It's more like a trade promotion deal than a free trade deal. This idea you have that we can reconstitute the glory days of the commonwealth overnight is a fantasy. We are where we are and it isn't a position of strength, the world can look at our current account deficit and they know we are going to be desperate.
That is what most Tory MPs want, and what most Tory members with jobs and mortgages want.
The Nutters and Fruitcakes won't be happy, but they never are.
Seriously, what pathetic bolleaux. Any serious HMG would employ more competent negotiators to do the job. It's not as if there aren't dozens and dozens of countries who do this every day.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/e3-ramble.html
Incidentally, if anyone knows of good games suitable for a 7-9 year old*, please do post in the comments.
*The 7-9 year old is not me.
Conservatives are far better with the knife.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36693835
I did say, repeatedly, that I wanted both campaigns to lose.
And I was right
We are the test case. Loads of other countries are looking at whether we can make being outside of the EU work, if we can we will show that an economic partnership doesn't need a political union. All of those Eurocrats will be left red faced as we benefit from the single market and benefit from non-EU trade without having to give up our sovereignty to them.
La, La, La, i can't hear you...
But I did see a tweet calling the defenestration of Corbyn as the *Chicken Coup*
That made me
If we HAD to go WTO, it would actually be WTO MFN. That sets tariff levels at 3.6% at a minimum and 12% for agricultural produce. There are intermediate levels as well, depending on sector.
The EU has 33 FTAs in addition to the single market. EEA has 26 (some overlap, and some with different conditions). WTO MFN is clearly the least favoured of our immediate options from a pure trade perspective. Our export businesses drive ~10% of the UK's GDP - Robert or Max could refine that figure I'm sure.
It's worth saying that even though WTO is the worst of the modeled positions I've seen, it's still not a catastrophe UNLESS one believes that financial passporting is a red line. I have no expertise to say one way or another.
The infamous IFS report I keep quoting seems to favour the NIESR models (scenarios WTO+, WTO, FTA, EEA). Deviations from the OBR forecasts by 2030 are -7.8%, -3.2%, -2.1%, -1.8%). I'll add the standard disclaimer; that's not an absolute contraction, the numbers are expressed relative to the OBR baseline.
If 2/3 of the broad support for the blues voted Leave, pissing them off may hit the Conservatives in the marginals.
Has Falconer resigned yet?
@Samfr: Apparently whinging about banana regs for 41yrs is entirely reasonable but being concerned about the economy tanking makes you a sore loser.
Before it all turns to merde...
She'd be a dreadful choice for PM at a time when we need someone who doesn;t react to every ScottP wailer out there when a policy runs into a bit of heavy weather.
If Ladbrokes ever gets the markets up.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/caroline-aherne-dead-gogglebox-star-8333795?ICID=FB_mirror_main
It's a bit like the Eurozone. All the PIGS have to do to recover is become German. Why aren't you German yet, PIGS?
The migration problem will sort itself in the short term. Someone who knows how to count will need to sort the economy.
that rules out Andrea (£350m) Leadsom
That's socialist France that's pushing a financial transaction tax, right?
That's the France where the choice is socialism or a rank protectionist nationalist.
FFS
Any link to the actual note from Moodys? I'd like to swot up.
ScottP would stick his head up his arSe if enough 'experts' recommended it.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1376838/michael-goves-no10-bid-being-plotted-by-controversial-tactical-genius-dominic-cummings
Sad.
It reminds me of *core competence* discussions in mgt training courses. They can't be magicked up, no matter what some wish for.
The World Bank (I know, I know 'experts in the pay of the EU') ranks the UK at number 6, the EU at 31. (Germany is 15, France 27.....) in terms of 'Ease of doing business':
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IC.BUS.EASE.XQ
What will happen in practice is that the slowdown in the UK economy, combined with a recovering EU economy will probably cause immigration to drop in the short term, almost irrespective of what the UK government actually does.
Long form: As of this moment the regulatory framework governing investment in the UK is in doubt. The Government is rudderless and the proposed EU replacements are either inferior (WTO rules) or not yet committed to (EEA/EFTA). The currency is crashing, so the value of future investment cannot be guessed at because the exchange rate is unstable. Previous personnel who may have found it easy to locate here may not now do so, and existing personnel are leaving. Employement conditions are not attractive, with a minumum wage in place and a larger one planned. Property prices (Times article last Saturday) are predicted by fall 10% compound over the next two years
It doesn't matter how good the UK was, or how good it will be in the future. The point is that right now, at this time of transition, investors don't know what they're getting into, don't know what the value will be of the money they get out, can't put people in, can't stop people leaving, and anything they buy now will soon be worth less. Until this uncertainty is resolved, investors will steer clear of the UK.
As Jim royale might say....Arrrrrrse.