If that poll is even vaguely accurate the labour party really is screwed. You don't listen to the nasty people jezzas, the totally nutty membership has your back.
@britainelects: Jeremy Corbyn should... Lead Labour into the next GE: 41% Step down before the next GE: 10% Step down now: 44% (via YouGov, Lab members)
Looks like McDonnell is the only viable alternative to Corbyn who could get the memberships support, Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS. However only if Corbyn is willing to go and McDonnell willing to stand
Looks like McDonnell is the only viable alternative to Corbyn who could get the memberships support, Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS. However only if Corbyn is willing to go and McDonnell willing to stand
Looks like McDonnell is the only viable alternative to Corbyn who could get the memberships support, Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS. However only if Corbyn is willing to go and McDonnell willing to stand
More Michael Ancram than Michael Howard...
Howard was IDS' Shadow Chancellor as McDonnell is Corbyn's, Howard was also closer ideologically to IDS than Ancram was, though Ancram was an IDS loyalist
I find it - odd - that very many peoples have been willing to lay down their lives for democracy, and yet we are so used to being comfortable that it's now by far the top priority for so many of us.
Congratulations on your mumps recovery, btw.
It is one thing to have hardship imposed upon you, it is another to choose it carelessly, and it is a third to have it imposed upon you by others choosing carelessly.
Somebody choosing to suffer for a purpose is one thing. Somebody choosing somebody else to suffer for a purpose is another. Somebody choosing somebody else to suffer for a purpose and then telling them that they aren't suffering is a third.
I find it - odd - that very many peoples have been willing to lay down their lives for democracy, and yet we are so used to being comfortable that it's now by far the top priority for so many of us.
It is one thing to have hardship imposed upon you, it is another to choose it carelessly, and it is a third to have it imposed upon you by others choosing carelessly.
I have had stuff that I don't agree with imposed on me by other people's choices all my life. It is called living in a democracy.
Does this change the current dynamic? I think Corbyn and co are being so stubborn because they think he is unbeatable in an election. This changes that.
I find it - odd - that very many peoples have been willing to lay down their lives for democracy, and yet we are so used to being comfortable that it's now by far the top priority for so many of us.
It is one thing to have hardship imposed upon you, it is another to choose it carelessly, and it is a third to have it imposed upon you by others choosing carelessly.
Congratulations on your mumps recovery, btw.
Point of order sir; I very carefully chose to vote Leave to alleviate hardship rather than impose it.
Backed gove for quite a large stake around noon at average odds of 5.28. When it was clear the narrative was going against him this afternoon/evening, I reversed my position - laying back at average 7.46. The result is a big fat red across my con leadership book.
I totally misread his strength of his position relative to May.
Now I know for certain the labour membership is bonkers. 10% would vote for Andy Burnham.
Am looking to cover Burnham off the back of this. He's actually in quite a strong position with the members if Corbyn goes. He's a permanent laughing stock amongst serious politicians, though.
Surely attempting to poll the Labour selectorate is about the most impossible polling exercise?
YouGov have a 100% record with Labour leadership elections, within MoE to boot.
It is early days yet, though. In all honesty, as an ABC(EFK) Labour member, I'm quite encouraged by that poll. It shows that there is an outside chance of rescuing the party from electoral oblivion. A 10% margin for Corbyn over Eagle isn't enough for the result to be nailed on.
Backed gove for quite a large stake around noon at average odds of 5.28. When it was clear the narrative was going against him this afternoon/evening, I reversed my position - laying back at average 7.46. The result is a big fat red across my con leadership book.
I totally misread his strength.
Today has been an education!
I had a very similar afternoon - and have now doubled down with a punt on Leadsom.
Toby Perkins @tobyperkinsmp 4m4 minutes ago @john Not legitimate to stand in a contest when you've had vote of No confidence, no Labour Group would accept that.
Surely attempting to poll the Labour selectorate is about the most impossible polling exercise?
YouGov have a 100% record with Labour leadership elections, within MoE to boot.
It is early days yet, though. In all honesty, as an ABC(EFK) Labour member, I'm quite encouraged by that poll. It shows that there is an outside chance of rescuing the party from electoral oblivion. A 10% margin for Corbyn over Eagle isn't enough for the result to be nailed on.
PS. EFK = Except For Kendall
What's wrong with Kendall? She'd easily win the next election for you if she's up against the old bat May.
Miraz, Maahwish - Labour Party 505 / 39.6% Bliss, Lyn - Green Party 273 / 21.4% Mead, Clive Richard - Liberal Democrats 181 / 14.2% Garrett, Sue - Conservative Party 141 / 11% French, John Rodney – Independent 102 / 8% Froggatt, Grace Elizabeth - UK Independence Party 69 / 5.4%
The Cllr causing the by-election in Luton "resigned after being suspended from the party for having tweeted that Hitler was the greatest man of history and that Iran should develop nuclear weapons to wipe out Israel, back in 2011"
The European Union's top trade official says the UK cannot begin negotiating terms for doing business with the bloc until after it has left. "First you exit then you negotiate," Cecilia Malmstrom told BBC Newsnight.
After Brexit, the UK would become a "third country" in EU terms, she said - meaning trade would be carried out based on World Trade Organisation rules until a new deal was complete. A recent trade deal with Canada took seven years to negotiate. The Canadian agreement will also require ratification by all EU countries, adding another one to two years before it takes effect. ...
Under EU law, the bloc cannot negotiate a separate trade deal with one of its own members, hence the commissioner's insistence that the UK must first leave. It is also against EU law for a member to negotiate its own trade deals with outsiders, which means the UK cannot start doing this until after it has left the EU. Taken at face value, these rules mean the UK cannot conduct its own trade talks for up to two years - a fearsome challenge to any prime minister trying to deliver Brexit. ... [E]ven a Norway-style single market access deal, they caution, could take years to negotiate, leaving the UK trading on WTO terms in the meantime.
What's the political upshot here? I'd be astonished if Germany, in particular, was looking forward to the idea of Britain sitting there on WTO terms for years, and if the new government wants to take the EEA route would rather maintain seamless continuity of Britain's membership of the single market rather than kick us out it via our EU exit then take us back into the EEA years later.
Does this all have any implications for the argument over a Swiss/ Norwegian / Canadian style deal?
You want to skip to 49:10 or so. The interview is quite brief but some tidbits in there that weren't in the web story.
The trade commissioner did not sound (to me) as confident in her statements as the web story suggested. But if it's true we will have to sit out a few years on WTO rules, with all the common market stuff gone (presumably including the financial passport) that would surely be a huge game-changer.
I find it - odd - that very many peoples have been willing to lay down their lives for democracy, and yet we are so used to being comfortable that it's now by far the top priority for so many of us.
It is one thing to have hardship imposed upon you, it is another to choose it carelessly, and it is a third to have it imposed upon you by others choosing carelessly.
I have had stuff that I don't agree with imposed on me by other people's choices all my life. It is called living in a democracy.
Unfortunately, if it continues to be imposed carelessly, the demos fractures (e.g Scotland)
Toby Perkins @tobyperkinsmp 4m4 minutes ago @john Not legitimate to stand in a contest when you've had vote of No confidence, no Labour Group would accept that.
My MP thinks Corbyn cant stand
Haha. Tear up the Rulebook, and replace it with the ad-hoc rules of the conspirators...
Given the views of the Labour members I know, yes I can believe it
Really? Did not some Labour constituencies vote in favour of Leave? Hard to see places like Sunderland getting 61.3% for Leave if only 9% of Labour voters were voting that way overall (Labour got 50% of the vote there in 2015, an 11k majority)
Given the views of the Labour members I know, yes I can believe it
Really? Did not some Labour constituencies vote in favour of Leave? Hard to see places like Sunderland getting 61.3% for Leave if only 9% of Labour voters were voting that way overall (Labour got 50% of the vote there in 2015, an 11k majority)
Given the views of the Labour members I know, yes I can believe it
Really? Did not some Labour constituencies vote in favour of Leave? Hard to see places like Sunderland getting 61.3% for Leave if only 9% of Labour voters were voting that way overall (Labour got 50% of the vote there in 2015, an 11k majority)
Given the views of the Labour members I know, yes I can believe it
Really? Did not some Labour constituencies vote in favour of Leave? Hard to see places like Sunderland getting 61.3% for Leave if only 9% of Labour voters were voting that way overall (Labour got 50% of the vote there in 2015, an 11k majority)
Yes and that's Labour voters, this is a poll of Labour members, if there's one thing I know about politics, activists are often out of alignment with their voters, and Labour members are London centric
Toby Perkins @tobyperkinsmp 18m18 minutes ago @john Not legitimate to stand in a contest when you've had vote of No confidence, no Labour Group would accept that.
Toby Perkins @tobyperkinsmp 18m18 minutes ago @john Not legitimate to stand in a contest when you've had vote of No confidence, no Labour Group would accept that.
Anyone else think this is reasonable
Toby sounds a bit out of touch with his party to me !
Toby Perkins @tobyperkinsmp 18m18 minutes ago @john Not legitimate to stand in a contest when you've had vote of No confidence, no Labour Group would accept that.
Anyone else think this is reasonable
"We know we can't beat you, but we will nevertheless try to force you out, and demolish the party if necessary."
I find it - odd - that very many peoples have been willing to lay down their lives for democracy, and yet we are so used to being comfortable that it's now by far the top priority for so many of us.
It is one thing to have hardship imposed upon you, it is another to choose it carelessly, and it is a third to have it imposed upon you by others choosing carelessly.
I have had stuff that I don't agree with imposed on me by other people's choices all my life. It is called living in a democracy.
Unfortunately, if it continues to be imposed carelessly, the demos fractures (e.g Scotland)
Mr. Code, it is always imposed carelessly. Every general election is decided by the voters, most of whom haven't a clue about the issues.
For a start much of the campaigning and discussion is about the economy - numbers, percentages, GDP and so forth. According to government figures (admittedly a few years old, but I doubt the situation has changed much) 40% of adults are numerically illiterate - they have a mathematical understanding below that required of a 14 year old. They don't even understand percentages FFS.
Take GDP, even on this site how many could state what it is without having to google it, and how many would understand what google told them? The we come to growth and rates of growth, velocity versus acceleration. How many voters understand calculus?
The majority of people I think vote from a position of ignorance based on their heart not their head. That is the system we have and we all have to live with the results, which are often not what we would like.
Toby Perkins @tobyperkinsmp 18m18 minutes ago @john Not legitimate to stand in a contest when you've had vote of No confidence, no Labour Group would accept that.
Anyone else think this is reasonable
"We know we can't beat you, but we will nevertheless try to force you out, and demolish the party if necessary."
Nope, entirely UNreasonable.
Start deselecting these traitors NOW.
Wasn't Toby Perkins on the First Up Against The Wall list anyway?
Brilliant. Charlie falconer is on question time next week. He'll resign then in front of the public. Must s tv!
Charlie Falconer eat your heart out! If only he had been leading for Labour in the Committee Stage of the Finance Bill, he could like my MP have spent two days wanting to resign before finally being able to get around to it in front of the public, as recorded here:
Given the views of the Labour members I know, yes I can believe it
Really? Did not some Labour constituencies vote in favour of Leave? Hard to see places like Sunderland getting 61.3% for Leave if only 9% of Labour voters were voting that way overall (Labour got 50% of the vote there in 2015, an 11k majority)
Labour members are not the same as Labour voters!
Whooops!
Totally misread young Darth Eagles original post.
Thank you Mr. Fire for pointing out my error, along with Mssrs HYFUD and Price. I apologise Mr. Eagles for wasting your time.
In mitigation I can only plead tiredness and perhaps it is time I went to bed.
Given the views of the Labour members I know, yes I can believe it
Really? Did not some Labour constituencies vote in favour of Leave? Hard to see places like Sunderland getting 61.3% for Leave if only 9% of Labour voters were voting that way overall (Labour got 50% of the vote there in 2015, an 11k majority)
Labour members are not the same as Labour voters!
Whooops!
Totally misread young Darth Eagles original post.
Thank you Mr. Fire for pointing out my error, along with Mssrs HYFUD and Price. I apologise Mr. Eagles for wasting your time.
In mitigation I can only plead tiredness and perhaps it is time I went to bed.
Never mind, at the rate they are presently going the only Labour voters left will be Labour members!
I find it - odd - that very many peoples have been willing to lay down their lives for democracy, and yet we are so used to being comfortable that it's now by far the top priority for so many of us.
It is one thing to have hardship imposed upon you, it is another to choose it carelessly, and it is a third to have it imposed upon you by others choosing carelessly.
I have had stuff that I don't agree with imposed on me by other people's choices all my life. It is called living in a democracy.
Unfortunately, if it continues to be imposed carelessly, the demos fractures (e.g Scotland)
Mr. Code, it is always imposed carelessly. Every general election is decided by the voters, most of whom haven't a clue about the issues.
For a start much of the campaigning and discussion is about the economy - numbers, percentages, GDP and so forth. According to government figures (admittedly a few years old, but I doubt the situation has changed much) 40% of adults are numerically illiterate - they have a mathematical understanding below that required of a 14 year old. They don't even understand percentages FFS.
Take GDP, even on this site how many could state what it is without having to google it, and how many would understand what google told them? The we come to growth and rates of growth, velocity versus acceleration. How many voters understand calculus?
The majority of people I think vote from a position of ignorance based on their heart not their head. That is the system we have and we all have to live with the results, which are often not what we would like.
Mr Llama, I agree with all of that. I would add one thought though, which is backed by a good deal of science. And that is for truly complex issues, like who should govern across a wide range of conflicting complex priorities, the emotional brain is actually better at making decisions than the rational brain. This is what the elite fail not only to understand, but even to acknowledge.
Now on the innumeracy, your are absolutely right. Here is something from a course on science communication I occasionally run:
"In a survey, 1000 Germans were asked what ‘40%’ means: one quarter, 4 out of 10 or every 40th person. About one third of responders did not choose the right answer."
Alan Johnson 'The candidate Labour would most fear is Theresa May, the candidate they would least fear is Michael Gove'
Sounds about right
Yes, I agree too. Though Fox is probably more rightwing than Gove, Gove has an awkward untelegenic persona. He is a capable minister but lacks electoral appeal
Comments
Lead Labour into the next GE: 41%
Step down before the next GE: 10%
Step down now: 44%
(via YouGov, Lab members)
It is one thing to have hardship imposed upon you, it is another to choose it carelessly, and it is a third to have it imposed upon you by others choosing carelessly.
Somebody choosing to suffer for a purpose is one thing.
Somebody choosing somebody else to suffer for a purpose is another.
Somebody choosing somebody else to suffer for a purpose and then telling them that they aren't suffering is a third.
And not just to help you win your bet....
Backed gove for quite a large stake around noon at average odds of 5.28. When it was clear the narrative was going against him this afternoon/evening, I reversed my position - laying back at average 7.46. The result is a big fat red across my con leadership book.
I totally misread his strength of his position relative to May.
Today has been an education!
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/labour-members-corbyn-post-brexit/
Remain 90%
Leave 9%
PS. EFK = Except For Kendall
@john Not legitimate to stand in a contest when you've had vote of No confidence, no Labour Group would accept that.
My MP thinks Corbyn cant stand
Miraz, Maahwish - Labour Party 505 / 39.6%
Bliss, Lyn - Green Party 273 / 21.4%
Mead, Clive Richard - Liberal Democrats 181 / 14.2%
Garrett, Sue - Conservative Party 141 / 11%
French, John Rodney – Independent 102 / 8%
Froggatt, Grace Elizabeth - UK Independence Party 69 / 5.4%
In all seriousness, I've said Labour should go for Yvette. You can't get more disinterested than that.
Affiliated and registered supporters less so.
Voters prob 60/40
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07j8mqp/newsnight-30062016
You want to skip to 49:10 or so. The interview is quite brief but some tidbits in there that weren't in the web story.
The trade commissioner did not sound (to me) as confident in her statements as the web story suggested. But if it's true we will have to sit out a few years on WTO rules, with all the common market stuff gone (presumably including the financial passport) that would surely be a huge game-changer.
Try again, traitors.
@john Not legitimate to stand in a contest when you've had vote of No confidence, no Labour Group would accept that.
Anyone else think this is reasonable
@tobyperkinsmp God how undemocratic is that. 172 people do not get to overule 500k members IMO
@tobyperkinsmp So using that logic if Chesterfield Labour members pass a vote of no confidence in you. You would resign?
Surprisingly he has not answered my hypothetical question!!
LD 862
Con 340
UKIP 157
Lab 135
Green 28
Nope, entirely UNreasonable.
Start deselecting these traitors NOW.
For a start much of the campaigning and discussion is about the economy - numbers, percentages, GDP and so forth. According to government figures (admittedly a few years old, but I doubt the situation has changed much) 40% of adults are numerically illiterate - they have a mathematical understanding below that required of a 14 year old. They don't even understand percentages FFS.
Take GDP, even on this site how many could state what it is without having to google it, and how many would understand what google told them? The we come to growth and rates of growth, velocity versus acceleration. How many voters understand calculus?
The majority of people I think vote from a position of ignorance based on their heart not their head. That is the system we have and we all have to live with the results, which are often not what we would like.
He's my PM too, BTW.
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/listen-labour-mp-rob-marris-11549732
Totally misread young Darth Eagles original post.
Thank you Mr. Fire for pointing out my error, along with Mssrs HYFUD and Price. I apologise Mr. Eagles for wasting your time.
In mitigation I can only plead tiredness and perhaps it is time I went to bed.
Sounds like a shambles
Now on the innumeracy, your are absolutely right. Here is something from a course on science communication I occasionally run:
"In a survey, 1000 Germans were asked what ‘40%’ means: one quarter, 4 out of 10 or every 40th person. About one third of responders did not choose the right answer."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmina_Ahmed-Sheikh#Political_career
An IDS rehash plus wanting to restrict abortion on top - the perfect cocktail to destroy any chance of winning an election.