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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the most dramatic post-war week in British politics the first electoral tests: Tonight’s local by-elections
St. Michael’s (Con defence) on Bexley
Result of council at last election (2014): Conservatives 45, Labour 15, United Kingdom Independence Party 3 (Conservative majority of 27)
Result of ward at last election (2014) :
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Theresa?
As if this was not bad enough I have had in the last few days the election of a new Dean of Faculty and now have the election for Vice Dean (Gordon Jackson QC and former MSP having won the former from the latter position).
Thank goodness I am going on holiday tomorrow night. I really need a break.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/748552924687630336
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXdIoDQHFiQ
Well, an interesting day to put it mildly.
As a non-Conservative and someone never likely to vote Conservative, I don't suppose my view on the leadership election matters so much but as people seem eager to comment on the LDs and Labour, I suppose that makes all parties fair game.
So we have May, Gove, Crabb, Leadsom and Fox in this handicap for three year olds of all ages. Johnson's failure to get to the start isn't the end for him - he would be the logical candidate IF the Conservatives lose the next election unless he's made Party Chairman as someone's idea of a joke.
As for the others, May has the form in the book but some questions to answer on some key issues. She's the great hope of the REMAIN camp in that with her it'll be EU-lite via the EEA with a sop or two on the ECHR I expect. To be fair, she's the obvious candidate for a Party desperate to regain some unity after a wretched spell.
Gove represents the LEAVE campaign where he did himself no harm but today has probably done him no favours. A possible "deal" with Osborne is reminscent of the Clarke-Redwood Pact of 1997 and that ended well. That said, his leadership would lead to a re-alignment in the REMAIN camp toward a post-Corbyn Labour party or Tim Farron's LDs.
Leadsom is interesting though economically she makes the Sahara look like a verdant oasis - I don't where she is on a range of other issues and how does she distinguish herself from Gove in the days to come ?
Crabb is Continuity Cameron so doomed.
Looking at Cameron and Corbyn yesterday, it struck me as Lame duck meets Dead duck.
Fox, well, there's always room for the novelty candidate in the tradition of Hugh Fraser in 1975 or perhaps Iain Duncan Smith in 2001 though the latter and the cardinal error of winning. Were Fox to prevail, it would be the ultimate revenge against Cameron.
To me, it looks like May vs either Gove or Leadsom in the last two. May would beat Gove among the leadership but may struggle against Leadsom.
For Conservatives, it's important to start from the basis Labour will come to its senses at some point - who do you want facing that nice Dan Jarvis across the Dispatch Box ?
The betting markets for May are starting to remind me of Remain.
All of Boris's schemes have come to naught. It takes a heart of stone :-)
"EXPERIENCE: Councillor, South Oxfordshire District Council 2003-2007. Contested Knowsley South constituency in 2005. Treasury Select Committee 2010-14. Economic Secretary to the Treasury from April 2014-May 2015. Minister of State for Energy at the Department of Energy and Climate Change May 2015 to present
OTHER EXPERIENCE: Barclays de Zoete Wedd (BZW) 1993-1997, Managing Director of De Putron Fund Management (DPFM) 1997-1999. Chief Investment Officer at Invesco Perpetual from 1999-2009."
http://iaindale.com/posts/2016/06/29/conservative-leadership-runners-riders-andrea-leadsom
Interview
https://audioboom.com/boos/4767097-listen-andrea-leadsom-makes-her-case-to-be-pm
Went remain iirc.
It was Boris not running! And then when Gove decided to run later in the day I realised how limited my imagination was....but then when Boris' tv announcement ran late I knew he wasn't going to run and my sleep addled brain had been right. I should have bet on it but nooooooo.....
Anyway, May has to be favourite from now on in and it is clearly between her and Leadsom for the leadership now. Although the latter is a fresh perspective, she has very little in the way of experience and is not a name anyone really knows.
it is the first, last and only question to any of the leading Brexiteers.
"Where is my £350m quid?"
As noted the other day, that bus is Boris's EdStone.
We would likely have to accept the Euro and be a much bigger contributor and I simply don't see a constituency for this (as distinct from returning to the EU under our previous terms which would be much more popular).
Clegg's absurd intervention calling for a GE yesterday did him no favours - we didn't have one when Wilson, Thatcher and Blair all left office during a parliament and nor did we have one when 1940 when Chamberlain was ousted (though there was a lot going on at the time).
May has said there doesn't need to be an election until 2020 - unless the Conservatives schism, that's probably accurate.
Anyway, I've no idea why you've taken all this so badly given you don't really care whether we Brexit or not - Remember a week last Wednesday (when you thought it was in the bag for REMAIN) saying that next time we have an EU referendum you won't mind "sticking it to the EU"
I thought that was one of most disingenuous things I've ever seen posted on here in a decade....
I really don't understand why that is so controversial. Seeking to rerun the result, seeking not to declare article 50 without a mandate to do so, that would be undemocratic.
It's perfectly possible to respect the democratic process and also seek the people's approval to reverse that decision at a future GE - in fact that is even more respectful of the democratic process.
Anyone implying it is not allowed for someone to campaign to reverse a decision taken today at some unspecified future point, irrespective of whether people might want to vote for it, would be displaying more contempt for the democratic process, as it would be saying it doesn't matter what is voted for democratically voted for inthe future, we made up our minds here forever.
Now, I don't think the LDs would win on a pledge to rejoin the EU. But desiring to 'rejoin' rather than pledging to ignore the request to leave, is not undemocratic. Unless Lamb is an idiot, I would hope he is referring to people seeking to prevent Leave happening, which could be labelled as so.
Question 1 Mr Speaker.
"We never said there would be £350m for the NHS"
Aye, right...
Headbangers anonymous
I find it hard to believe I'd ever vote Conservative again, if Leadsom was leader I'd at least consider it.
Leadsom is the candidate that would make me vote Labour
Didn't everyone go barmy on here about Labour's 'racist mug'
Didn't it just say "Controls on Immigration', isn't that exactly what all Brexiters are now claiming isn't racist at all?
Leading to comments such as 'what an immigration mug', 'they're mugs when it comes to immigration' etc ad infinitem...
[engage adenoidal tone]
I have no opinion on this matter either way
[adenoids off]
I cannot see May running the party forever to be honest, never struck me as anything more than a placeholder leader until a new generation can jockey into position. I mean suddenly with Cameron and Johnson gone and Osborne toxic, the field is wide open again for the first time since 2005.
Frankly, unless he is setting his ambitions very low, it seems a crazy policy to adopt. I doubt trying to re-enter the EU, with most if not all of the opt-outs gone, would attract more than a very small element of support from the electorate. Maybe in ten years once the long term effects can start to be accurately assessed, and even then it would probably take many further years to get in. And it would be doubtful that the EU would even consider it, unless they had fundamentally changed in the mean time.
Single To Win
Theresa May @ 33/1
Next Prime Minister post David Cameron
Corbyn winning the war with the MP's where it matters.
No big deal, and that's really important - a big step forward.
@LabourEoin
Some MPs who resigned have told me privately it was partly due to pressure put upon them & then now understand the feeling among grassroots.
It's a huge strategic mistake to use the EU as a raison d'etre. They'd be far better off going full Internationalist. There was a good deal of pushback in the comments regarding Farron's announcement.
If Brexit does go tits up, then one or both of the major parties would adopt a BrBackIn strategy...where does that leave them? Having said all that, I've never understood the LibDems, though I could grok the old Liberal party.