Ruth just improved her party's fortunes for the first time in 30 years on the back of a single platform - stand up for the Union. It has been totally undermined and her position is holed below the waterline.
If the EU tells Scotland it needs to be Independent to negotiate, then that is only good for Nicola. It means Independence is no longer a choice but a requirement. A requirement. It is also one likely to be supported with a heavy Yes vote.
There is no scenario where Brexit is good for Ruth. And in all scenarios Brexit is good for Nicola.
What's your view as to the SNP position on something like EFTA/EEA with FOMTW (Freedom of movement to work)? Good enough? Or not good enough?
I should add that I fully support the idea of an independent Scotland, so this isn't some kind of Internet Point scoring exercise. We don't have much Scottish representation on here these days.
After Independence is achieved I would vote no to EU membership (if it is not already in place) and yes to a full Norwegian/Icelandic EEA deal. I don't agree with the SNP but Independence is more important than the actual choice between EEA and full EU membership.
The most important thing is to curtail the drain on Scotland's wealth and people which can only be achieved by Independence.
If May gets an EFTA deal it is not impossible Scotland could very narrowly vote to stay in the UK rather than vote for independence just to join the EU. If there is no UK EFTA deal then I think an independence vote is inevitable
An EFTA deal (Which means free movement) would kill the Tories and Labour with huge UKIP gains. It is very hard to see a Tory PM backing such a deal knowing what it will mean for his or her party.
You might be right. However, I think there's some momentum behind the idea that it isn't freedom of movement, but freedom of movement to work. The EU might disagree of course, but there's still wiggle room, at least in theory.
I think it was more that Scotland couldn't automatically inherit the UK's membership rather than he would veto the membership of an independent Scotland. That was how I read it anyway.
So a third poster has a third different interpretation of what Rajoy said.
That only emphasises my point. Nicola only needs a credible objection to claims by whatever coalition No can form. She has that, whether people like it or not. Ruth lacks any cast iron argument, the only known known is that Scotland is out the EU if it remains in the UK as things stand.
Don't get me wrong because I wish Scotland well and if I were a Scot I would be voting for independence. However, some of the issues raised in 2014 would still seem to be there, currency, oil price etc.. Economics may not for everyone be a reason to vote in a particular way, but I should have thought some answers would need to be provided to those issues which caused people to vote "No" last time.
On currency, I think they will have to try and sell eventual euro membership. accepting future joining of the euro (it would never be straight away) may be a condition of the EU to accept Scotland inheriting non-schengen membership post-indy.
On oil price they have to choose a different economic model. even if the price goes up people won't have confidence in it. that's gonna be the big problem to address.
The decision in principle to leave the UK and join/remain in the EU would have to be taken before the UK leaves the EU. Both points could be covered in one referendum and possibly one question to avoid an impractical outcome.
That might depend on what the true position of the SNP hierarchy is.
While the EU has always been a publicly fundamental part of Independence under the SNP package, the EEA option, out of CAP, out of CFP and with the ability to negotiate your own trade deals is clearly the best option for a heavy exporter like Scotland.
You might be right. However, I think there's some momentum behind the idea that it isn't freedom of movement, but freedom of movement to work. The EU might disagree of course, but there's still wiggle room, at least in theory.
Isn't that momentum coming from the same Westminster and Media bubbles who have just had their arses handed to them by the electorate?
I have a bad feeling that we will see a betrayal on brexit.
Alastair campbell was on cnn earlier and he thinks we haven't seen nothing yet on the economy and Parliament will vote for another referendum
What would it take for the Brexiteers to throw in their cards? How much economic turbulence, unemployment, market chaos and currency depression would it take before they thought, 'you know what, it just ain't worth it'. What's the threshold? If so, what is it?
For me nothing that is at all likely to happen.
Nor me, actually Richard. I am not predicting that. However, I am talking hypothetically, wondering where the threshold is...
Well Carney talking of interest rates cuts is really quite frightening.
Richard- how much of our economic prosperity is acceptable to pay for Brexit. I reckon after modest growth this quarter we'll have maybe 3 or 4 quarters of negative growth, reducing our GDP by about 6% from now, and about 10-12% where it should have been without this self inflicted injury. And then a couple of years of sluggish growth after- so maybe between 15-20% national cost to pay for Brexit.
And by then, we may well be back in.
I find it - odd - that very many peoples have been willing to lay down their lives for democracy, and yet we are so used to being comfortable that it's now by far the top priority for so many of us.
But others can address the points so much better than I can, and it's time I was in bed.
Goodnight, all.
You can always count world events by economics. The 2nd World War destroyed about 40% of world GDP and about 6% of the world population. Doubtless Rod would disagree.
The 2008 Banking Crisis destroyed about 10% OF world GDP.
Brexit- I think will destroy about 10-15% (maybe as high as 20% of the UK's economy). That 10-15% doesn't come back. As the second world war, we just progress into the future a permanently poorer country.
The European Union's top trade official says the UK cannot begin negotiating terms for doing business with the bloc until after it has left. "First you exit then you negotiate," Cecilia Malmstrom told BBC Newsnight.
After Brexit, the UK would become a "third country" in EU terms, she said - meaning trade would be carried out based on World Trade Organisation rules until a new deal was complete. A recent trade deal with Canada took seven years to negotiate. The Canadian agreement will also require ratification by all EU countries, adding another one to two years before it takes effect. ...
Under EU law, the bloc cannot negotiate a separate trade deal with one of its own members, hence the commissioner's insistence that the UK must first leave. It is also against EU law for a member to negotiate its own trade deals with outsiders, which means the UK cannot start doing this until after it has left the EU. Taken at face value, these rules mean the UK cannot conduct its own trade talks for up to two years - a fearsome challenge to any prime minister trying to deliver Brexit. ... [E]ven a Norway-style single market access deal, they caution, could take years to negotiate, leaving the UK trading on WTO terms in the meantime.
What's the political upshot here? I'd be astonished if Germany, in particular, was looking forward to the idea of Britain sitting there on WTO terms for years, and if the new government wants to take the EEA route would rather maintain seamless continuity of Britain's membership of the single market rather than kick us out it via our EU exit then take us back into the EEA years later.
Does this all have any implications for the argument over a Swiss/ Norwegian / Canadian style deal?
I honestly don't know the implications of this stance. We tend to talk about trade with the 'EU', when of course, in practice the bulk of our trade is with a small number of countries - all the usual suspects: Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Ireland, Belgium and Sweden.
As we run a hefty trade deficit with the EU (though a modest services surplus), this would put a definite crimp into those main partners. We're Germany's #3 export market, for example.
These ridiculous restrictions on negotiations mean that we should not invoke article 50 until the situation is improved. The EU won't like the delay but they have to understand that this is the first time that a member has planned to leave.
I'm beginning to understand the French Revolution much better. It's some hours since some prominent figure suddenly met a gruesome fate and I'm beginning to get withdrawal symptoms.
I'm beginning to understand the French Revolution much better. It's some hours since some prominent figure suddenly met a gruesome fate and I'm beginning to get withdrawal symptoms.
The referendum certainly appears to be devouring its own children.
Corbyn winning the war with the MP's where it matters.
If he does impose a deselection process he is going to have a turnover of MP's that would make Putin blush, where is he going to find these sacrificial lambs? And if he gets his followers to do it, how long before one of them says something massively stupid, or just plain acts like Ken?
Well quite, and that's even if their CLPs would deselect rebels, which is far from certain. In many cases local MPs, while to the right of their CLPs, are hardworking and appreciated.
Surely he knows the game is up?
The game is up for the rebel MPs.
They have thrown all they have at Corbyn but he remains.
The rebels dare not make a democratic challenge because they know they will lose the vote of members.
Seems that way. But if they've bottled even the attempt, I can't even feel sorry for them.
I'm beginning to understand the French Revolution much better. It's some hours since some prominent figure suddenly met a gruesome fate and I'm beginning to get withdrawal symptoms.
The referendum certainly appears to be devouring its own children.
Just popping in to say that I have never seen Game of Thrones and therefore I haven't got a fecking clue what people are going on about.
I don't own a TV, but I make a point of getting the odd boxed set for my swanky PC. Game of Thrones is excellent. That said, I'm a fan of GRR Martin since waaaay before he turned to writing fantasy.
I'm beginning to understand the French Revolution much better. It's some hours since some prominent figure suddenly met a gruesome fate and I'm beginning to get withdrawal symptoms.
The referendum certainly appears to be devouring its own children.
Poetic justice.
Gove next.
Gove has been consumed: Andrea is next. Then Hannan.
I'm beginning to understand the French Revolution much better. It's some hours since some prominent figure suddenly met a gruesome fate and I'm beginning to get withdrawal symptoms.
The referendum certainly appears to be devouring its own children.
Poetic justice.
Am wavering John, as I heard this afternoon, a few journos are now reporting Gove wants to keep Osborne on as Chancellor.
I'm beginning to understand the French Revolution much better. It's some hours since some prominent figure suddenly met a gruesome fate and I'm beginning to get withdrawal symptoms.
We can argue about the effects of Brexit on the economy all the live-long day, but there's absolutely no doubt that the result has left Ruth up shit creek without the proverbial paddle.
Yes. Undermined her ability to take the party onward north of the border, and even struggle to hold what they've gained. Unfortunate for her, as she seems to be a real talent.
I'm beginning to understand the French Revolution much better. It's some hours since some prominent figure suddenly met a gruesome fate and I'm beginning to get withdrawal symptoms.
The referendum certainly appears to be devouring its own children.
Poetic justice.
Am wavering John, as I heard this afternoon, a few journos are now reporting Gove wants to keep Osborne on as Chancellor.
That's a potential gamechanger for me.
Just stop now; my vengeance has no bounds. None will be spared whatever their previous meritorious service
Besides, aren't George's mates all defecting to Theresa?
If Corbyn has held on to most of those who voted for him last time, and tens of thousands more are joining to defend him, those dozens of MPs need to man up and form their own party, the tenor of many of them at Corbyn and what he is standing for precludes serving under him and staying in a party that overwhelmingly backs him.
But if so many do, they won't take enough members or activists with them if they went, making it even less likely they would dare to do so. So presumably that means it's time for them to grab ankle, figuratively.
Ruth Davidson is in trouble north of the border but still has capital within the party, I cannot see her supporting Gove as a result. She will either keep schtum and attempt to patch up the torpedo strike in the hull or support May.
Who will be the first Labour MP to join the Liberals?
Jamie Reed has the most vitriolic letter to Corbyn, accusing him and McDonnell of spreading poison through the party so if Corbyn wins one would think someone so angry at him would be at risk of leaving, but I've no idea if he is even close to the liberal position, and I'd imagine is in his head Labour forever, even if its members endorse a man he thinks is incompetent and a spreader of poison.
I'm beginning to understand the French Revolution much better. It's some hours since some prominent figure suddenly met a gruesome fate and I'm beginning to get withdrawal symptoms.
The referendum certainly appears to be devouring its own children.
Poetic justice.
Am wavering John, as I heard this afternoon, a few journos are now reporting Gove wants to keep Osborne on as Chancellor.
That's a potential gamechanger for me.
Just stop now; my vengeance has no bounds. None will be spared whatever their previous meritorious service
Besides, aren't George's mates all defecting to Theresa?
Yes they are.
TM4PM
I'm writing a piece for this weekend on why it has to be Theresa May.
Just popping in to say that I have never seen Game of Thrones and therefore I haven't got a fecking clue what people are going on about.
I don't own a TV, but I make a point of getting the odd boxed set for my swanky PC. Game of Thrones is excellent. That said, I'm a fan of GRR Martin since waaaay before he turned to writing fantasy.
Mr. M, have you read the Accursed Kings series by Maurice Druon? The new kindle edition comes with a preface by GRR Martin in which he acknowledges it as his inspiration, for The Game of Thrones. It has got all the same ingredients except the Accursed Kings is based on real history - France in the XIVth century - a cracking read.
It has been dramatised for TV twice, both in French. I remember seeing the 1960s version on BBC2 back then - first time nudity was shown on the Beeb I think.
I have a friend in the IDF who regards her as enemy of Israel of the highest order. His view is that her - and people like her - poison the entire debate.
I can't believe that terrible Portugal team have got through another round. Even England have played better than them.
I don't think they've won a match yet
They haven't. They have drawn every single game, haven't they?
If my team can sneak past Belgium tomorrow I can see a Wales v Germany final. Amazing! Ps was in Bala, mid Wales today. The council have renamed the town BALE for the duration.
Just popping in to say that I have never seen Game of Thrones and therefore I haven't got a fecking clue what people are going on about.
I don't own a TV, but I make a point of getting the odd boxed set for my swanky PC. Game of Thrones is excellent. That said, I'm a fan of GRR Martin since waaaay before he turned to writing fantasy.
Mr. M, have you read the Accursed Kings series by Maurice Druon? The new kindle edition comes with a preface by GRR Martin in which he acknowledges it as his inspiration, for The Game of Thrones.
Presumably why they were reissued recently, which is nice.
@michaelsavage: Last-ditch plan to reach Corbyn exit deal: Moderates may guarantee hard-left a place in leadership race if he goes. Team Corbyn holding firm
The decision in principle to leave the UK and join/remain in the EU would have to be taken before the UK leaves the EU. Both points could be covered in one referendum and possibly one question to avoid an impractical outcome.
That might depend on what the true position of the SNP hierarchy is.
While the EU has always been a publicly fundamental part of Independence under the SNP package, the EEA option, out of CAP, out of CFP and with the ability to negotiate your own trade deals is clearly the best option for a heavy exporter like Scotland.
Over 70% of Scotland's "heavy" exports are to the rest of the UK! Leaving the union for the prospect of a slightly better trading relationship with the EU would be an odd economic choice. The departure from the EU, and the rest of the UK's role in it, is being used as a justification for having another referendum - it is not a rational justification for promoting a Yes vote. Very much heart over head issue.
Just popping in to say that I have never seen Game of Thrones and therefore I haven't got a fecking clue what people are going on about.
I don't own a TV, but I make a point of getting the odd boxed set for my swanky PC. Game of Thrones is excellent. That said, I'm a fan of GRR Martin since waaaay before he turned to writing fantasy.
Mr. M, have you read the Accursed Kings series by Maurice Druon? The new kindle edition comes with a preface by GRR Martin in which he acknowledges it as his inspiration, for The Game of Thrones.
Presumably why they were reissued recently, which is nice.
Yup, I found the books in the kindle store last year, at a very reasonable price too.
I can't believe that terrible Portugal team have got through another round. Even England have played better than them.
I don't think they've won a match yet
They haven't. They have drawn every single game, haven't they?
If my team can sneak past Belgium tomorrow I can see a Wales v Germany final. Amazing! Ps was in Bala, mid Wales today. The council have renamed the town BALE for the duration.
@michaelsavage: Last-ditch plan to reach Corbyn exit deal: Moderates may guarantee hard-left a place in leadership race if he goes. Team Corbyn holding firm
It would seem to be the best solution - if a hard left candidate would win, the rebels would have to at least give them a chance, and if they were competent they'd be quieted, but it gives them a chance to try to win as well - but I guess it does come down to trust. Will enough nominate a hard left candidate?
@michaelsavage: Last-ditch plan to reach Corbyn exit deal: Moderates may guarantee hard-left a place in leadership race if he goes. Team Corbyn holding firm
What a joke.
"We're losers who can't beat you. But please stand down, and we'll allow a lefty whom we can beat to stand..."
Ruth Davidson is in trouble north of the border but still has capital within the party, I cannot see her supporting Gove as a result. She will either keep schtum and attempt to patch up the torpedo strike in the hull or support May.
Ruth just improved her party's fortunes for the first time in 30 years on the back of a single platform - stand up for the Union. It has been totally undermined and her position is holed below the waterline.
If the EU tells Scotland it needs to be Independent to negotiate, then that is only good for Nicola. It means Independence is no longer a choice but a requirement. A requirement. It is also one likely to be supported with a heavy Yes vote.
There is no scenario where Brexit is good for Ruth. And in all scenarios Brexit is good for Nicola.
What's your view as to the SNP position on something like EFTA/EEA with FOMTW (Freedom of movement to work)? Good enough? Or not good enough?
I should add that I fully support the idea of an independent Scotland, so this isn't some kind of Internet Point scoring exercise. We don't have much Scottish representation on here these days.
After Independence is achieved I would vote no to EU membership (if it is not already in place) and yes to a full Norwegian/Icelandic EEA deal. I don't agree with the SNP but Independence is more important than the actual choice between EEA and full EU membership.
The most important thing is to curtail the drain on Scotland's wealth and people which can only be achieved by Independence.
If May gets an EFTA deal it is not impossible Scotland could very narrowly vote to stay in the UK rather than vote for independence just to join the EU. If there is no UK EFTA deal then I think an independence vote is inevitable
An EFTA deal (Which means free movement) would kill the Tories and Labour with huge UKIP gains. It is very hard to see a Tory PM backing such a deal knowing what it will mean for his or her party.
Well no EFTA deal could kill the country! UKIP may be guaranteed a quarter of the vote at the next election as a result but as that would come for Labour as much as if not more than the Tories a Tory PM like May can afford to take the risk
Ruth Davidson is in trouble north of the border but still has capital within the party, I cannot see her supporting Gove as a result. She will either keep schtum and attempt to patch up the torpedo strike in the hull or support May.
I thought she was supporting Crabb?
I missed that then, didn't think she had got involved yet.
Lady Dugdale was next to rise. “Do I have your word that you will not betray our cause and the integrity of these four kingdoms, now and always?” she asked Sturgeon.
“Well, for now,”she replied.
“Good enough for me,” said Dugdale. “THE QUEEN IN THE NORTH!”
There is nothing beautiful about collectivism. There is something beautiful about taking responsibility for yourselves.
"Taking responsibility for oneself" requires a) an acknowledgement of the truth, b) identifying problems, and c) acquiring the skills and resources to overcome them. Since the ref, a) has been poor, people have preferred to deny b), and c) seems to be entirely lacking
Comments
Mind you, it is the FA.
Lancaster is arguably the best technical coach in the NHS, but he failed at the RWC.
If England are looking at Southgate, similarly admired as a good coach at age grade, then Lancaster's brains are not bad ones to pick.
The Remainers choice apparently..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/26/may-hails-benefits-of-sharia-as-inquiry-set-up-into-misuse-of-is/
On oil price they have to choose a different economic model. even if the price goes up people won't have confidence in it. that's gonna be the big problem to address.
While the EU has always been a publicly fundamental part of Independence under the SNP package, the EEA option, out of CAP, out of CFP and with the ability to negotiate your own trade deals is clearly the best option for a heavy exporter like Scotland.
The 2008 Banking Crisis destroyed about 10% OF world GDP.
Brexit- I think will destroy about 10-15% (maybe as high as 20% of the UK's economy). That 10-15% doesn't come back. As the second world war, we just progress into the future a permanently poorer country.
Osbornites unite
Lovely Jubbly
Poetic justice.
Remain full house.
Looks like she'll get the vast majority of the cabinet.
That's a potential gamechanger for me.
Besides, aren't George's mates all defecting to Theresa?
...
Comedian
...
Anal Sex
But if so many do, they won't take enough members or activists with them if they went, making it even less likely they would dare to do so. So presumably that means it's time for them to grab ankle, figuratively.
Best to declare publically for the favourite so they give you a job if they win but vote for who you actually want.
TM4PM
I'm writing a piece for this weekend on why it has to be Theresa May.
It has been dramatised for TV twice, both in French. I remember seeing the 1960s version on BBC2 back then - first time nudity was shown on the Beeb I think.
Ps was in Bala, mid Wales today. The council have renamed the town BALE for the duration.
@michaelsavage: Last-ditch plan to reach Corbyn exit deal: Moderates may guarantee hard-left a place in leadership race if he goes. Team Corbyn holding firm
@lukeakehurst: And then the left lost every vote https://t.co/YeHdzhGprK
"We're losers who can't beat you. But please stand down, and we'll allow a lefty whom we can beat to stand..."
Was fun watching Evan trying to get the pair to fight on Newsnight, they were not interested.
Labour is authoritarian, centralist amnd statist. Liberals are the opposite.
If the Liberals are wise they won't accept any Labour MPs. There are entry checks.
@NadineDorriesMP: So, it would appear that George Osborne was the machiavelli behind Gove's announcement.
Standard and Poors has cut the EU's credit rating.
https://twitter.com/tomtomtalks1/status/748613979539398656
Lady Dugdale was next to rise. “Do I have your word that you will not betray our cause and the integrity of these four kingdoms, now and always?” she asked Sturgeon.
“Well, for now,”she replied.
“Good enough for me,” said Dugdale. “THE QUEEN IN THE NORTH!”
Revenge is usually served cold, but I guess needs must.
Labour leadership poll coming up...
Result 1: Members narrowly back Corbyn if challenged in a ballot 50 to 47 https://t.co/NOjkiQ51NX
Edit - Thanks for the statistics
Result 4: Big big drop in Corbyn approval ratings - but he's still a net positive!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmO1WvBXIAER0jH.jpg