Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB/Polling Matters TV show June 15th: The EU Referendum spe

245

Comments

  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    I biased but I'll always love the Northern Majorcan resort of Puerto D'Pollenca. It's sit's in a massive elongated bay surrounded by mountains and pine trees. The water is so still it is like a mill pond and crystal clear, boats seem to float on air when looked at from above.

    It's a quiet town will not much above 4 storeys. The Northern part near the old town is the priciest near the yacht club and the very expensive flats and villas. Further South the beach widens out and the prices fall. Only one small section of the beach is full in August, just walk a little further from town and you won't be troubled. It is not a place for night life and is mostly stuffed full of restaurants and so it's clientele are either old people or people with very young chidren. Not only are the waves non existent the bay is so shallow , you can walk for ages before the water gets above the knees.

    When ever I'm there the weight of the world just melts away as I float on the water staring at the mountains. Or my favourite sitting at a hotel bar on the Pine Walk looking out to sea with a big jug of Sangria laughing with my sister and slowly sinking in my chair as the as the drink and the sunset takes effect. Sigh, why can't I win the lottery.

    I have been there – I liked it very much. But I just found Majorca too tame and Anglicised, overall, despite the undeniable natural beauty of the island.
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    Anecdotal.

    Almost nobody I know and come into contact with up here in Scotland is even speaking about the referendum. It's a bit bizarre up here.

    Make of that what you will.

    Almost nobody I know & come into contact with down here in Devon is even speaking about the referendum either. (But I haven't really seen anyone to talk to for several days.)
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2016
    Jobabob said:

    kle4 said:

    Portugal seems to be well regarded by the travelling elite on PB - I think I may book my holidays for there.

    The atlantic can be very cold for swimming and a bit rough for smaller children.

    The North coast of Spain is gorgeous, with interesting small towns, great food and good beaches even in cities such as Santander and San Sebastian. I sailed along the coast there last July and it wasn't too crowded at all. There can be sea fogs some days and a lot cooler than the med in August.

    Fox jr raves about Albania for beaches, mountains and value, but is in the backpacker rather than family holiday milieu.

    Yes, want to avoid Atlantic because my son is very young. It's a toughie. Leaning towards Croatia but have heeded Sean's warning over the food. Hmm.
    Puerto Pollensa it is!

    Edit: or perhaps not!

    North Spain is much more for local tourists. Try Ribadesella:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/europe/spain/articles/Ribadesella-Spain-Secret-Seaside/
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    edited June 2016
    The BMG online and phone polls are being released at 1am Friday
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393
    All kicking off in Lille. Riot police charging idiotic England fans. They are going to get England kicked out. Absolutely disgraceful. At this rate Europe will kick us out anyway
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,051
    edited June 2016
    Anecdote alert....I spoke with Roger the other day, and he confirmed that he was a remainer....then guess what, I confirmed to him that I am a remainer...and then he said he was definitely remaining, and not even considering leaving, and then I said on reflection, I share that opinion too. After, this challenging, and profoundly reflective conversation, I came away thinking remain will win, maybe even by a landslide, and maybe even quite possibly by something more.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,723
    Kicking Osborne takes priority over supporting Remain at the Guardian. Good.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436
    RoyalBlue said:

    Anecdote alert.

    My neighbour's just put a Remain poster up in his window ;-(

    Split among friends and family is 60/40 Remain, too. Where are all these people voting Leave that I keep getting told about? Shy?

    Then you put up a Vote Leave poster! Surrender no territory...

    Living in Notts.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Evening PB. Have I missed any polls?
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    The BMG online and phone polls is being released at 1am Friday

    1 a.m? Is that normal in any way?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    Anecdotal.

    Almost nobody I know and come into contact with up here in Scotland is even speaking about the referendum. It's a bit bizarre up here.

    Make of that what you will.

    Scotland has just had a big referendum unlike the rest of the UK and is strongly Remain unlike England and Wales which are neck and neck so that is why there is less interest. Ironically though it could be Scotland which decides it, Comres today has it 51% to 49% Leave in England but the UK voting 51% to 49% Remain thanks to well over 60% voting for Remain in Scotland!
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,033

    The very purpose of a tariff is to try and make a trade unviable. It is deliberate policy of the EU tariffs to try and prevent African development to protect German processors.

    Irrelevant to REMAIN/LEAVE if true, as neither the post-LEAVE UK nor the EU is likely to change tariffs to stimulate massive African investment in a manner that reassures financiers that their moeny is safe from expropriation. In any case we had some anti-EU campaigners promising MORE tariffs on steel to protect Welsh workers. In fact, it is the logical corollary of immigration controls targetting low-wage workers and jobs, which would otherwise cause manufacturing to move to lower-wage countries (e.g. USA).
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    HYUFD said:

    I note that the Comres numbers are based on two key factors.

    1. A a very large vote for AB to REMAIN vs LEAVE (56% vs 36%)
    2. C1s being almost 50/50.

    The above two are out of line with at least one recent pollster, sorry I cannot recall which.

    The AB number vs DE is almost 4:1!
    Also 2:1 split for past Labour voters REMAIN vs LEAVE. Not what some in Labour party are reporting, maybe helped if a large part of Labour LEAVE just do not vote.

    The Comres figures are actually pretty close to what ICM were showing on social class voting and yougov too has Labour voters about 2:1 Remain
    Is this a new poll or the one that's been out a little bit (Remain +1). Personally I think/ hope that pollsters are forgetting that not everyone has a computer. And everyone knows that Dewey beat Trueman.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393
    French firing tear gas.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393

    Kicking Osborne takes priority over supporting Remain at the Guardian. Good.
    Osborne is finished - and I am a remainer
  • Options
    BlueKenBlueKen Posts: 33
    Ed Balls, Tom Watson and Theresa May have all suggested free movement could be addressed if we stay in. If its a Remain vote, there should be another referendum if this does not happen in five years or so.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    welshowl said:

    The BMG online and phone polls is being released at 1am Friday

    1 a.m? Is that normal in any way?
    Has been done in the past, rarely.

    The worst embargo end time was at 3.01am during the Indyref

    This is a poll for The Herald, so I'm assuming it's to do with appearing on the paper's website.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436
    John_M said:

    I feel like Jim Carry in 'The Mask' when his eyes bugged out of their sockets.

    So, Mrs May, our HOME SECRETARY SINCE THE 12th MAY 2010, now feels it would be lovely to let fewer people in. Why didn't you say so before Theresa? I'll get right on it.
    A nice manoeuvre for post-Cameron leadership mind you.
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:



    Now, he's just a sad old sack.

    In Organising Live/Band Aid he demonstrably did more good than most if not all of us will do in our lifetime. It was the original lets not forget. So I'll give him a pass.
    But in wanting to Remain in the EU with its Common Agricultural Policy that does more damage to African farmers than all the good Band Aid ever did he is helping undo that legacy.

    Scrapping the CAP and letting Africa trade with us on the same terms as Europe can will do more good than Band Aid ever could.
    If you say so Philip, although I don't think Bozo and his pet lizard have African farmers in mind in making their pitch for out.
    Whether they do or don't (I do) they have made that argument before.

    Either way are you happy to keep Africa in penury with massive tariffs killing their development because a leaver may have impure thoughts?
    Which EU tariffs are impeding African economic development?
    Lots are. Just one of many examples:

    The EU lets Africa produce raw goods it is good at but levies very high tariffs on processed goods (so that the processing occurs in Europe). As anyone with a basic understanding of economics and history should understand the value and growth comes from moving past raw goods and into processing too.

    The EU levies no tariffs on coffee beans (which the EU can't produce) but levels tariffs on roasted coffee so that in 2014 Africa made $2.4 billion from exporting coffee, while Germany made $3.8 billion from re-exporting roasted coffee. It should be shocking that Germany makes more money from coffee beans than Africa does. Why should Africa be blocked from selling us roasted coffee beans so that the Germans can instead?
    Has Africa been successful in exporting processed consumer goods to destinations without tariffs? No, because investors in higher-value industries do not trust their capital to still be in their names in 20 years.
    Africans can invest themselves and in some things they do invest. Shopping centers and mobile phone systems, so that isn't the problem, the issue is there is no point in adding value in Africa because they can't export it. That is immoral and counter productive.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    I note that the Comres numbers are based on two key factors.

    1. A a very large vote for AB to REMAIN vs LEAVE (56% vs 36%)
    2. C1s being almost 50/50.

    The above two are out of line with at least one recent pollster, sorry I cannot recall which.

    The AB number vs DE is almost 4:1!
    Also 2:1 split for past Labour voters REMAIN vs LEAVE. Not what some in Labour party are reporting, maybe helped if a large part of Labour LEAVE just do not vote.

    The Comres figures are actually pretty close to what ICM were showing on social class voting and yougov too has Labour voters about 2:1 Remain
    Is this a new poll or the one that's been out a little bit (Remain +1). Personally I think/ hope that pollsters are forgetting that not everyone has a computer. And everyone knows that Dewey beat Trueman.
    Comres was phone
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436
    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    I note that the Comres numbers are based on two key factors.

    1. A a very large vote for AB to REMAIN vs LEAVE (56% vs 36%)
    2. C1s being almost 50/50.

    The above two are out of line with at least one recent pollster, sorry I cannot recall which.

    The AB number vs DE is almost 4:1!
    Also 2:1 split for past Labour voters REMAIN vs LEAVE. Not what some in Labour party are reporting, maybe helped if a large part of Labour LEAVE just do not vote.

    ABs are absolutely solid for Remain in London.

    In fact, it is now getting socially difficult for me when it comes up in conversation, which is increasingly frequent.
    I wonder if there is a North/South divide here. A fair number of ABs I know (in the North) are for Leave.
    London professionals are not only solid for Remain but many refuse to entertain the thought that Leave can win, so dominate is europhilia in my circles. I have found myself reminding them that as London goes, not necessarily does the country. Yet many won't have it.

    P.S. One for Casino – my pb autocorrect keeps changing europhilia to urophilia
    Where are these circles in London?? Honest question. I really don't recognise them. It's not true of the London I know, at all.
    Even if it is true, refusing to entertain the idea that Leave are poised to win is blinkered to say the least.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    SeanT said:

    Hooray Henries makes the front page of the Guardian I see.
    That's such a damning shot of Geldof. Sad.
    Yes, but he's putting the Vs up at Farage. Social Justice in action. The Guardianistas will lap it up.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2016
    RoyalBlue said:

    Anecdote alert.

    My neighbour's just put a Remain poster up in his window ;-(

    Split among friends and family is 60/40 Remain, too. Where are all these people voting Leave that I keep getting told about? Shy?

    Then you put up a Vote Leave poster! Surrender no territory...

    I'm not really one for broadcasting my political opinions in public. I think that's the same for many Leavers; Leave remains the unfashionable campaign with a lot of stigma against it in many circles. Shy Tories last year maybe; shy Leavers this year definitely.
  • Options
    I think the key to ancedotes is to understand which area the people in the anecdote live. It seems one thing is clear is there will be massive regional differences, particularly between London and the rest of England.

    FWIW - still seems very quiet here in Maidenhead. The Advertiser is running another voodoo poll which is currently 52% leave, 44% remain. The last one a few months' back was 50/50 separated by one vote.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    John_M said:

    I feel like Jim Carry in 'The Mask' when his eyes bugged out of their sockets.

    So, Mrs May, our HOME SECRETARY SINCE THE 12th MAY 2010, now feels it would be lovely to let fewer people in. Why didn't you say so before Theresa? I'll get right on it.
    Maybe this -

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/743189313324716032
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited June 2016
    On the Silver Coast of Portugal, despite being the Atlantic, there are safer beaches towns such as São Martinho do Porto and Foz do Arelho, which are very popular with the Portguese from Porto and Lisbon.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    welshowl said:

    The BMG online and phone polls is being released at 1am Friday

    1 a.m? Is that normal in any way?
    Has been done in the past, rarely.

    The worst embargo end time was at 3.01am during the Indyref

    This is a poll for The Herald, so I'm assuming it's to do with appearing on the paper's website.
    Thanks
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,051
    AnneJGP said:

    Anecdotal.

    Almost nobody I know and come into contact with up here in Scotland is even speaking about the referendum. It's a bit bizarre up here.

    Make of that what you will.

    Almost nobody I know & come into contact with down here in Devon is even speaking about the referendum either. (But I haven't really seen anyone to talk to for several days.)

    Quite. Trotsky, that delightful thing who I just passed the blame onto for a red wine disaster, looks at me with with a mild bemusement when I start ranting about the EU...my wife, well enough said, politics and marriage do not mix well, ...and who else is there here? That is why I have obsessively turned to pbCOM....no one around me is remotely interested.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292

    John_M said:

    I feel like Jim Carry in 'The Mask' when his eyes bugged out of their sockets.

    So, Mrs May, our HOME SECRETARY SINCE THE 12th MAY 2010, now feels it would be lovely to let fewer people in. Why didn't you say so before Theresa? I'll get right on it.
    Maybe this -

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/743189313324716032
    If the ball comes out the back of the scrum and all that...
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    edited June 2016

    John_M said:

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/743186285775429632

    I feel like Jim Carry in 'The Mask' when his eyes bugged out of their sockets.

    So, Mrs May, our HOME SECRETARY SINCE THE 12th MAY 2010, now feels it would be lovely to let fewer people in. Why didn't you say so before Theresa? I'll get right on it.
    Maybe this -

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/743189313324716032
    Excellent :D
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,051
    SeanT said:

    Hooray Henries makes the front page of the Guardian I see.
    That's such a damning shot of Geldof. Sad.
    He has a very nice hat

  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    BlueKen said:

    Ed Balls, Tom Watson and Theresa May have all suggested free movement could be addressed if we stay in. If its a Remain vote, there should be another referendum if this does not happen in five years or so.

    That's another 'could' as in 'won't be'. It isn't even likely to be on the table, is it?
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Anecdotes are pointless really aren't they? I think Leave has the edge, because that's what the polls say.
  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    Jobajob- I was trying to reply to your holiday post...one handed, hair drier in the other and the footie on too. Sardinia is breathtakingly beautiful- but August is too busy for us. But for scenery, sea, sun, food, wine, people, light, colours, and just breathtaking unspoilt seaside, it is stunning. The south particularly- Chia. We go there every year. I cannot think of any other seaside resort I'd rather see. I've never been to Sicily so cannot comment. Beautiful Italian mainland seaside resorts are too full.

    I agree with Tyson here. The Italian seaside is best avoided altogether at August. EVERYWHERE is chocka - which is why I suggested somewhere inland like Molveno (which is fab, but you don't get the sea, just the lake)

    If you want cheap lovely Mediterranean-style seaside in August I'd go for Portugal; the Alentejo coast - the Costa Vicentina - north of Sagres, or the far eastern Algarve around Tavira, or maybe the remoter, southern coast of Crete. Dalmatia is increasingly crowded but there are lots of islands... yet the food is iffy.

    Sicily is grand but the beaches are pretty crap. Also unbearably hot in August.

    Portugal is yer man. Or one of the more obscure Italian lakes, ibid.



    I stay just north of Vilamoura with my wife's family every year, we stay in a grand seven bedroom villa up in the hilly, remote parts of Vale. The in laws pays for it, my wife's aunty is a chef and she comes too with her family. We all get waited on hand and foot and when my daughter was tiny I walked every inch of that area with her in the buggy. Peaceful, friendly and lovely.

    A nirvana for golfers too.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436

    weejonnie said:

    Anecdote Alert.

    Son on a psychology conversion course in a Northern City was horrified to find he was the only Remainer out of 10.

    Daughter at a northern uni puts it more 4:1 for REMAIN, but doubts if 1 in 5 will either vote or be able to vote.
    more fool them as they will have to live with the result for most of their adult lives.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SeanT said:

    Hooray Henries makes the front page of the Guardian I see.
    That's such a damning shot of Geldof. Sad.
    This might put him in a better light sean -

    Brexiteer fisherman dying of cancer emotionally confronts Sir Bob Geldof on his pro-EU flotilla

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/brexiteer-fisherman-dying-cancer-emotionally-8198717
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    EPG said:

    The very purpose of a tariff is to try and make a trade unviable. It is deliberate policy of the EU tariffs to try and prevent African development to protect German processors.

    Irrelevant to REMAIN/LEAVE if true, as neither the post-LEAVE UK nor the EU is likely to change tariffs to stimulate massive African investment in a manner that reassures financiers that their moeny is safe from expropriation. In any case we had some anti-EU campaigners promising MORE tariffs on steel to protect Welsh workers. In fact, it is the logical corollary of immigration controls targetting low-wage workers and jobs, which would otherwise cause manufacturing to move to lower-wage countries (e.g. USA).
    It has been a UK goal perpetually frustrated to see the CAP reformed. I fully expect a post-Leave UK to drop these unjustifiable tariffs against Africa.

    As for keeping investments safe there is a chicken and egg situation here. If people can't make a profit then they don't invest, if they don't invest then sound investment regimes don't develop. If we stop actively trying via the evil EU tariff regime to keep Africa poor then maybe African regimes could be better.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    BlueKen said:

    Ed Balls, Tom Watson and Theresa May have all suggested free movement could be addressed if we stay in. If its a Remain vote, there should be another referendum if this does not happen in five years or so.

    We tried that. We got told to Foxtrot Oscar by Brussels. If we vote in why are they going to take us seriously again for a generation? No bullets in the gun. Vote out we have cards to play.
  • Options
    BlueKenBlueKen Posts: 33
    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    I note that the Comres numbers are based on two key factors.

    1. A a very large vote for AB to REMAIN vs LEAVE (56% vs 36%)
    2. C1s being almost 50/50.

    The above two are out of line with at least one recent pollster, sorry I cannot recall which.

    The AB number vs DE is almost 4:1!
    Also 2:1 split for past Labour voters REMAIN vs LEAVE. Not what some in Labour party are reporting, maybe helped if a large part of Labour LEAVE just do not vote.

    ABs are absolutely solid for Remain in London.

    In fact, it is now getting socially difficult for me when it comes up in conversation, which is increasingly frequent.
    I wonder if there is a North/South divide here. A fair number of ABs I know (in the North) are for Leave.
    London professionals are not only solid for Remain but many refuse to entertain the thought that Leave can win, so dominate is europhilia in my circles. I have found myself reminding them that as London goes, not necessarily does the country. Yet many won't have it.

    P.S. One for Casino – my pb autocorrect keeps changing europhilia to urophilia
    Where are these circles in London?? Honest question. I really don't recognise them. It's not true of the London I know, at all.
    I work in professional services and its 90% plus for Remain. But most of them are foreign nationals who can't vote. I also imagine Brexiteers keep it quiet for professional reasons when faced with such a consensus.
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    The BMG online and phone polls are being released at 1am Friday

    B'Stards!

    Do we know the field work dates?
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    I feel like Jim Carry in 'The Mask' when his eyes bugged out of their sockets.

    So, Mrs May, our HOME SECRETARY SINCE THE 12th MAY 2010, now feels it would be lovely to let fewer people in. Why didn't you say so before Theresa? I'll get right on it.
    Maybe this -

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/743189313324716032
    The trouble is that word is already getting round that Cameron is furious about her tepid support for Remain, and this just highlights how badly she's failed on immigration. I vaguely recall that this falls under her remit.

    Don't get me wrong, I quite like her, but she's fallen between two stools. She's playing the William Stanley role in this particular War.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    edited June 2016

    The BMG online and phone polls are being released at 1am Friday

    B'Stards!

    Do we know the field work dates?
    I'm deploying my considerable charm to find out.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436
    John_M said:

    SeanT said:

    Hooray Henries makes the front page of the Guardian I see.
    That's such a damning shot of Geldof. Sad.
    Yes, but he's putting the Vs up at Farage. Social Justice in action. The Guardianistas will lap it up.
    He was a punk after all.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    May is in the Remain campaign? ;)
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    welshowl said:

    BlueKen said:

    Ed Balls, Tom Watson and Theresa May have all suggested free movement could be addressed if we stay in. If its a Remain vote, there should be another referendum if this does not happen in five years or so.

    We tried that. We got told to Foxtrot Oscar by Brussels. If we vote in why are they going to take us seriously again for a generation? No bullets in the gun. Vote out we have cards to play.
    The whole argument being made by senior Labour figures and May is really bizarre. Vote Remain and we will ask the EU to enable us to restrict freedom of movement. What happens when they inevitably tell us to bugger off...
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    I feel like Jim Carry in 'The Mask' when his eyes bugged out of their sockets.

    So, Mrs May, our HOME SECRETARY SINCE THE 12th MAY 2010, now feels it would be lovely to let fewer people in. Why didn't you say so before Theresa? I'll get right on it.
    Maybe this -

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/743189313324716032
    The trouble is that word is already getting round that Cameron is furious about her tepid support for Remain, and this just highlights how badly she's failed on immigration. I vaguely recall that this falls under her remit.

    Don't get me wrong, I quite like her, but she's fallen between two stools. She's playing the William Stanley role in this particular War.
    It's bizarre really. Of all the cabinet who seemed like they could go either way, I fully expected her (especially after her nasty conference speech last year) to go for Leave. At least then she could consistently say "I've seen first hand how it's not possible to control migration in the EU" rather than make it all effectively her own responsibility.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393
    Tata Steel have written to their staff confirming the need to stay in the EU. Could have a big influence in South Wales and the Valleys for remain
  • Options
    BlueKenBlueKen Posts: 33

    FPT

    Sean_F said:

    hunchman said:

    I must congratulate bob geldof on contributing to the leave campaign today. That moment perfectly encapsulated just how out of touch our ruling class is with the ordinary people of Britain.

    It's quite something for a legend of the punk revolution, general agitator and Irishman to boot to be classed as a ruler. But hey, whatever fits your meme.

    And yes he's always been a bit of a knob.
    Now, he's just a sad old sack.
    In Organising Live/Band Aid he demonstrably did more good than most if not all of us will do in our lifetime. It was the original lets not forget. So I'll give him a pass.
    But in wanting to Remain in the EU with its Common Agricultural Policy that does more damage to African farmers than all the good Band Aid ever did he is helping undo that legacy.

    Scrapping the CAP and letting Africa trade with us on the same terms as Europe can will do more good than Band Aid ever could.
    If you say so Philip, although I don't think Bozo and his pet lizard have African farmers in mind in making their pitch for out.
    Whether they do or don't (I do) they have made that argument before.

    Either way are you happy to keep Africa in penury with massive tariffs killing their development because a leaver may have impure thoughts?
    Your team are free marketeers? The same sort of people who have been bleeding Africa dry since colonial times, as are the inners. You don't suppose the sweetcorn and green beans grown in Senegal and sold in Tescos are grown by small Senegalese farmers do you? I do take your point of course, but would most certainly not accept that outers are any more in favour of supporting small farmers in Africa than inners. The real problems of Africa do not register with either.
    If we abolish CAP and put Africa on the same trade terms as Europe then we would not just cut our own food costs but provide a major boon to the African economy.
    I find the Remain preference for "protect our farmers by keeping the wogs poor" most distasteful.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited June 2016
    English are fighting the police again...Fighting the CRS is even more stupid than fighting the steroid addled Russian military reservists.
  • Options
    ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 165
    I understand from twitter that the Royal Northern College of Music held its own EU referendum among students and staff and Leave won with 56% of the vote. A thin straw in the wind ofcourse but suprising if the country as a whole is about to vote Remain.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Tata Steel have written to their staff confirming the need to stay in the EU. Could have a big influence in South Wales and the Valleys for remain

    No it won't.
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,045
    SeanT said:

    Hooray Henries makes the front page of the Guardian I see.
    That's such a damning shot of Geldof. Sad.
    Geldof has done far more than Farage. Gelfof may have his faults but he doesn't spread fear in the name of righteousness like the bigot Farage.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:



    Now, he's just a sad old sack.

    In Organising Live/Band Aid he demonstrably did more good than most if not all of us will do in our lifetime. It was the original lets not forget. So I'll give him a pass.
    But in wanting to Remain in the EU with its Common Agricultural Policy that does more damage to African farmers than all the good Band Aid ever did he is helping undo that legacy.

    Scrapping the CAP and letting Africa trade with us on the same terms as Europe can will do more good than Band Aid ever could.
    If you say so Philip, although I don't think Bozo and his pet lizard have African farmers in mind in making their pitch for out.
    Whether they do or don't (I do) they have made that argument before.

    Either way are you happy to keep Africa in penury with massive tariffs killing their development because a leaver may have impure thoughts?
    Which EU tariffs are impeding African economic development?
    Lots are. Just one of many examples:

    Has Africa been successful in exporting processed consumer goods to destinations without tariffs? No, because investors in higher-value industries do not trust their capital to still be in their names in 20 years.
    Africans can invest themselves and in some things they do invest. Shopping centers and mobile phone systems, so that isn't the problem, the issue is there is no point in adding value in Africa because they can't export it. That is immoral and counter productive.
    Actually trade barriers in africa and its exporting countries are down, and over the last decade Africa has been one of the worlds economic success stories, and increasingly freeing itself from commodities:

    http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21638141-africas-growth-being-powered-things-other-commodities-twilight

  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    BlueKen said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:

    hunchman said:

    I must congratulate bob geldof on contributing to the leave campaign today. That moment perfectly encapsulated just how out of touch our ruling class is with the ordinary people of Britain.

    It's quite something for a legend of the punk revolution, general agitator and Irishman to boot to be classed as a ruler. But hey, whatever fits your meme.

    And yes he's always been a bit of a knob.
    Now, he's just a sad old sack.
    In Organising Live/Band Aid he demonstrably did more good than most if not all of us will do in our lifetime. It was the original lets not forget. So I'll give him a pass.
    But in wanting to Remain in the EU with its Common Agricultural Policy that does more damage to African farmers than all the good Band Aid ever did he is helping undo that legacy.

    Scrapping the CAP and letting Africa trade with us on the same terms as Europe can will do more good than Band Aid ever could.
    If you say so Philip, although I don't think Bozo and his pet lizard have African farmers in mind in making their pitch for out.
    Whether they do or don't (I do) they have made that argument before.

    Either way are you happy to keep Africa in penury with massive tariffs killing their development because a leaver may have impure thoughts?
    Your team are free marketeers? The same sort of people who have been bleeding Africa dry since colonial times, as are the inners. You don't suppose the sweetcorn and green beans grown in Senegal and sold in Tescos are grown by small Senegalese farmers do you? I do take your point of course, but would most certainly not accept that outers are any more in favour of supporting small farmers in Africa than inners. The real problems of Africa do not register with either.
    If we abolish CAP and put Africa on the same trade terms as Europe then we would not just cut our own food costs but provide a major boon to the African economy.
    I find the Remain preference for "protect our farmers by keeping the wogs poor" most distasteful.
    Can we not go down this road of impugning the motives of the opposition? It's been relatively civilized so far today.

    Africa's problems are complex and I doubt that trade reform is the most pressing of those.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672

    John_M said:

    I feel like Jim Carry in 'The Mask' when his eyes bugged out of their sockets.

    So, Mrs May, our HOME SECRETARY SINCE THE 12th MAY 2010, now feels it would be lovely to let fewer people in. Why didn't you say so before Theresa? I'll get right on it.
    Maybe this -

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/743189313324716032
    Here we go. She could be the first out the gates.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,033

    EPG said:

    The very purpose of a tariff is to try and make a trade unviable. It is deliberate policy of the EU tariffs to try and prevent African development to protect German processors.

    Irrelevant to REMAIN/LEAVE if true, as neither the post-LEAVE UK nor the EU is likely to change tariffs to stimulate massive African investment in a manner that reassures financiers that their moeny is safe from expropriation. In any case we had some anti-EU campaigners promising MORE tariffs on steel to protect Welsh workers. In fact, it is the logical corollary of immigration controls targetting low-wage workers and jobs, which would otherwise cause manufacturing to move to lower-wage countries (e.g. USA).
    It has been a UK goal perpetually frustrated to see the CAP reformed. I fully expect a post-Leave UK to drop these unjustifiable tariffs against Africa.
    The CAP has been thoroughly reformed in the last 20 years to an extent of which townie Britons are not always fully aware. I fully expect that the UK will behave like every other sizable developed country in its trade policy. Tariffs are bad but not particularly the cause of African poverty or even of low African processed goods exports (the USA exports plenty to the EU behind tariff walls - as would the UK of course).
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393
    MP_SE said:

    Tata Steel have written to their staff confirming the need to stay in the EU. Could have a big influence in South Wales and the Valleys for remain

    No it won't.
    Really - well we will see but I heard a Union rep for Port Talbot saying today that they must stay in Europe
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    I feel like Jim Carry in 'The Mask' when his eyes bugged out of their sockets.

    So, Mrs May, our HOME SECRETARY SINCE THE 12th MAY 2010, now feels it would be lovely to let fewer people in. Why didn't you say so before Theresa? I'll get right on it.
    Maybe this -

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/743189313324716032
    The trouble is that word is already getting round that Cameron is furious about her tepid support for Remain, and this just highlights how badly she's failed on immigration. I vaguely recall that this falls under her remit.

    Don't get me wrong, I quite like her, but she's fallen between two stools. She's playing the William Stanley role in this particular War.
    Those stools being Cameron and Osborne...
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    I know the fighting is quite bad in areas of France, but I believe 99% of the country is still very peaceful.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    SeanT said:

    Hooray Henries makes the front page of the Guardian I see.
    That's such a damning shot of Geldof. Sad.
    Not just Geldof. Trouble is that the image sums up so much about Remain.

    And the Mirror article with the terminal cancer story is just an awful follow up to it.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Seeing as it appears to be anecdote hour on PB, I'll add me two pence:

    Firstly, I was a a dinner party a week ago or so, almost everyone there was a banker/employed in the city. Almost all were also voting for leave.

    The second one isn't quite so clearly positive for leave, three women I know (AB, SOxon, 2015 Tory voters) were discussing how they were going to vote, one was leaning leave, one completely undecided, the other leaning remain. Considering the fact that they all are (were?) relatively wealthy admirers of Camerbourne, with a young family means that they should be prime Remainers, yet they aren't. However that being said I suspect that they'll break 3/0 or, less likely 2/1 for Remain in the voting booth.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920

    John_M said:

    I feel like Jim Carry in 'The Mask' when his eyes bugged out of their sockets.

    So, Mrs May, our HOME SECRETARY SINCE THE 12th MAY 2010, now feels it would be lovely to let fewer people in. Why didn't you say so before Theresa? I'll get right on it.
    Maybe this -

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/743189313324716032
    I guess she didn't take kindly to the Posh Boys threats this morning! ;)
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    tyson said:

    Anecdote alert....I spoke with Roger the other day, and he confirmed that he was a remainer....then guess what, I confirmed to him that I am a remainer...and then he said he was definitely remaining, and not even considering leaving, and then I said on reflection, I share that opinion too. After, this challenging, and profoundly reflective conversation, I came away thinking remain will win, maybe even by a landslide, and maybe even quite possibly by something more.

    Funniest thing you've said all day.
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016
    tyson said:

    Anecdote alert....I spoke with Roger the other day, and he confirmed that he was a remainer....then guess what, I confirmed to him that I am a remainer...and then he said he was definitely remaining, and not even considering leaving, and then I said on reflection, I share that opinion too. After, this challenging, and profoundly reflective conversation, I came away thinking remain will win, maybe even by a landslide, and maybe even quite possibly by something more.

    You should ask him who is going to be POTUS and put money on it...
    :naughty:
  • Options
    Remain will win in London. As long as it is not worse than 40-60 with an average (for the nation) turnout then that will be alright for leave.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    BlueKen said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:

    hunchman said:

    I must congratulate bob geldof on contributing to the leave campaign today. That moment perfectly encapsulated just how out of touch our ruling class is with the ordinary people of Britain.

    It's quite something for a legend of the punk revolution, general agitator and Irishman to boot to be classed as a ruler. But hey, whatever fits your meme.

    And yes he's always been a bit of a knob.
    Now, he's just a sad old sack.
    In Organising Live/Band Aid he demonstrably did more good than most if not all of us will do in our lifetime. It was the original lets not forget. So I'll give him a pass.
    But in wanting to Remain in the EU with its Common Agricultural Policy that does more damage to African farmers than all the good Band Aid ever did he is helping undo that legacy.

    Scrapping the CAP and letting Africa trade with us on the same terms as Europe can will do more good than Band Aid ever could.
    If you say so Philip, although I don't think Bozo and his pet lizard have African farmers in mind in making their pitch for out.
    Whether they do or don't (I do) they have made that argument before.

    Either way are you happy to keep Africa in penury with massive tariffs killing their development because a leaver may have impure thoughts?
    Your team are free marketeers? The same sort of people who have been bleeding Africa dry since colonial times, as are the inners. You don't suppose the sweetcorn and green beans grown in Senegal and sold in Tescos are grown by small Senegalese farmers do you? I do take your point of course, but would most certainly not accept that outers are any more in favour of supporting small farmers in Africa than inners. The real problems of Africa do not register with either.
    If we abolish CAP and put Africa on the same trade terms as Europe then we would not just cut our own food costs but provide a major boon to the African economy.
    I find the Remain preference for "protect our farmers by keeping the wogs poor" most distasteful.
    It is also untrue. The people wanting to slash foreign aid budgets are not Remainers.

    As I pointed out the EU deals with the poor countries in africa are aimed at getting rid of tariffs.

    https://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/regions/african-caribbean-and-pacific-acp-region/cotonou-agreement_en
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    London vs Scotland will be interesting
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902

    I understand from twitter that the Royal Northern College of Music held its own EU referendum among students and staff and Leave won with 56% of the vote. A thin straw in the wind ofcourse but suprising if the country as a whole is about to vote Remain.

    I suspect that there'll be a massive regional split. Most of the north will go for leave, in order for Remain to still win, places like Berks/Bucks/Oxon must all go by a decent margin to Remain, and I'm not convinced that they will.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Fair play to Professor Goodwin for wearing a tie. Mr Ludlow has some competition!
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Tata Steel have written to their staff confirming the need to stay in the EU. Could have a big influence in South Wales and the Valleys for remain

    That was a condition of the fat wodge of taxpayers cash they got. Probably.
  • Options
    BlueKenBlueKen Posts: 33
    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    The very purpose of a tariff is to try and make a trade unviable. It is deliberate policy of the EU tariffs to try and prevent African development to protect German processors.

    Irrelevant to REMAIN/LEAVE if true, as neither the post-LEAVE UK nor the EU is likely to change tariffs to stimulate massive African investment in a manner that reassures financiers that their moeny is safe from expropriation. In any case we had some anti-EU campaigners promising MORE tariffs on steel to protect Welsh workers. In fact, it is the logical corollary of immigration controls targetting low-wage workers and jobs, which would otherwise cause manufacturing to move to lower-wage countries (e.g. USA).
    It has been a UK goal perpetually frustrated to see the CAP reformed. I fully expect a post-Leave UK to drop these unjustifiable tariffs against Africa.
    The CAP has been thoroughly reformed in the last 20 years to an extent of which townie Britons are not always fully aware. I fully expect that the UK will behave like every other sizable developed country in its trade policy. Tariffs are bad but not particularly the cause of African poverty or even of low African processed goods exports (the USA exports plenty to the EU behind tariff walls - as would the UK of course).
    The tariffs are deliberately set to be high enough to make African agricultural output noncompetitive in European markets. That is a direct detriment to 400 million African farm workers, most of whom live on $2 a day. Even worse than that is the EU has export subsidies so European agribusiness can dump below production cost on African markets. Various changes over the years have not changed either of these things. It is so deeply immoral it can only be excused by people who secretly harbour anti-African racism.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    I know the fighting is quite bad in areas of France, but I believe 99% of the country is still very peaceful.
    I can see our asylum numbers getting to the same high levels when new labour were in power.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,033
    BlueKen said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:

    hunchman said:

    I must congratulate bob geldof on contributing to the leave campaign today. That moment perfectly encapsulated just how out of touch our ruling class is with the ordinary people of Britain.

    It's quite something for a legend of the punk revolution, general agitator and Irishman to boot to be classed as a ruler. But hey, whatever fits your meme.

    And yes he's always been a bit of a knob.
    Now, he's just a sad old sack.
    In Organising Live/Band Aid he demonstrably did more good than most if not all of us will do in our lifetime. It was the original lets not forget. So I'll give him a pass.
    But in wanting to Remain in the EU with its Common Agricultural Policy that does more damage to African farmers than all the good Band Aid ever did he is helping undo that legacy.

    Scrapping the CAP and letting Africa trade with us on the same terms as Europe can will do more good than Band Aid ever could.
    If you say so Philip, although I don't think Bozo and his pet lizard have African farmers in mind in making their pitch for out.
    Whether they do or don't (I do) they have made that argument before.

    Either way are you happy to keep Africa in penury with massive tariffs killing their development because a leaver may have impure thoughts?
    Your team are free marketeers? The same sort of people who have been bleeding Africa dry since colonial times, as are the inners. You don't suppose the sweetcorn and green beans grown in Senegal and sold in Tescos are grown by small Senegalese farmers do you? I do take your point of course, but would most certainly not accept that outers are any more in favour of supporting small farmers in Africa than inners. The real problems of Africa do not register with either.
    If we abolish CAP and put Africa on the same trade terms as Europe then we would not just cut our own food costs but provide a major boon to the African economy.
    I find the Remain preference for "protect our farmers by keeping the wogs poor" most distasteful.
    As your interlocutors have implicitly conceded through changing the spotlight to industry, CAP does nothing to protect EU farmers from Sub-Saharan African farmers, due to the Lomé and Cotonou framework (oops - sounds dangerously like expertise - an unwanted commodity subject to tariffs).
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,051
    Jobabob said:

    Anecdotes are pointless really aren't they? I think Leave has the edge, because that's what the polls say.

    To reassure you, though the betting money is still going on remain- 30 million plus on this market Betfair, and remain at 2-1 on pretty much

    Why is the big money, in the many millions, still backing remain?

    Either the punters with the cash know something? Or what? I don't know. Clearly, the opinion polls are still being ignored.
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    The BMG online and phone polls are being released at 1am Friday

    B'Stards!

    Do we know the field work dates?
    I'm deploying my considerable charm to find out.
    Ah. That's us fooked then ;)
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited June 2016

    SeanT said:

    Hooray Henries makes the front page of the Guardian I see.
    That's such a damning shot of Geldof. Sad.
    Not just Geldof. Trouble is that the image sums up so much about Remain.

    And the Mirror article with the terminal cancer story is just an awful follow up to it.
    Louise Mensch is going to destroy Geldof tomorrow night on QT.
  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Tata Steel have written to their staff confirming the need to stay in the EU. Could have a big influence in South Wales and the Valleys for remain

    Stephen Kinnock is the MP for Aberavon.

    The TATA / Remain letter reads something along the lines of 'Vote Remain to keep the steelworks alive and all 300 members of my family employed in Brussels".
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436
    MP_SE said:

    SeanT said:

    Hooray Henries makes the front page of the Guardian I see.
    That's such a damning shot of Geldof. Sad.
    Not just Geldof. Trouble is that the image sums up so much about Remain.

    And the Mirror article with the terminal cancer story is just an awful follow up to it.
    Louise Mensch is going to destroy Geldof tomorrow night on QT.
    I doubt it.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    GIN1138 said:

    John_M said:

    I feel like Jim Carry in 'The Mask' when his eyes bugged out of their sockets.

    So, Mrs May, our HOME SECRETARY SINCE THE 12th MAY 2010, now feels it would be lovely to let fewer people in. Why didn't you say so before Theresa? I'll get right on it.
    Maybe this -

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/743189313324716032
    I guess she didn't take kindly to the Posh Boys threats this morning! ;)
    Love it if she came out for leave just before the vote,if the rumours are true on cameron sacking her - Go for it Theresa.
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:



    Now, he's just a sad old sack.

    In Organising Live/Band Aid he demonstrably did more good than most if not all of us will do in our lifetime. It was the original lets not forget. So I'll give him a pass.
    But in wanting to Remain in the EU with its Common Agricultural Policy that does more damage to African farmers than all the good Band Aid ever did he is helping undo that legacy.

    Scrapping the CAP and letting Africa trade with us on the same terms as Europe can will do more good than Band Aid ever could.
    If you say so Philip, although I don't think Bozo and his pet lizard have African farmers in mind in making their pitch for out.
    Whether they do or don't (I do) they have made that argument before.

    Either way are you happy to keep Africa in penury with massive tariffs killing their development because a leaver may have impure thoughts?
    Which EU tariffs are impeding African economic development?
    Lots are. Just one of many examples:

    Has Africa been successful in exporting processed consumer goods to destinations without tariffs? No, because investors in higher-value industries do not trust their capital to still be in their names in 20 years.
    Africans can invest themselves and in some things they do invest. Shopping centers and mobile phone systems, so that isn't the problem, the issue is there is no point in adding value in Africa because they can't export it. That is immoral and counter productive.
    Actually trade barriers in africa and its exporting countries are down, and over the last decade Africa has been one of the worlds economic success stories, and increasingly freeing itself from commodities:

    http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21638141-africas-growth-being-powered-things-other-commodities-twilight

    Yes, but too much dumping of subsidised produce and too much tax on value added product.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    Chameleon said:

    I understand from twitter that the Royal Northern College of Music held its own EU referendum among students and staff and Leave won with 56% of the vote. A thin straw in the wind ofcourse but suprising if the country as a whole is about to vote Remain.

    I suspect that there'll be a massive regional split. Most of the north will go for leave, in order for Remain to still win, places like Berks/Bucks/Oxon must all go by a decent margin to Remain, and I'm not convinced that they will.
    Comres today has the North backing Leave 54% to 46% against a UK wide margin of 51% to 49% for Remain. The Midlands backs Leave 52% to 48%, the South (including London) Remain 52% to 48%. England as a whole is 51% to 49% Leave, Scotland is 68% to 32% Remain
    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/The-Sun_EU-Referendum-Poll_June-2016-1.pdf
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    tyson said:

    Jobabob said:

    Anecdotes are pointless really aren't they? I think Leave has the edge, because that's what the polls say.

    To reassure you, though the betting money is still going on remain- 30 million plus on this market Betfair, and remain at 2-1 on pretty much

    Why is the big money, in the many millions, still backing remain?

    Either the punters with the cash know something? Or what? I don't know. Clearly, the opinion polls are still being ignored.
    While the opinion polls may reflect the reality right now, I expect a solid 3-5% of the population to swing for safety at the last moment from leave, add on top of that the potential for the unknowns to split almost entirely for remain and you can see why the smart money is on remain.
  • Options
    BlueKenBlueKen Posts: 33
    EPG said:

    BlueKen said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:

    hunchman said:

    I must congratulate bob geldof on contributing to the leave campaign today. That moment perfectly encapsulated just how out of touch our ruling class is with the ordinary people of Britain.

    It's quite something for a legend of the punk revolution, general agitator and Irishman to boot to be classed as a ruler. But hey, whatever fits your meme.

    And yes he's always been a bit of a knob.
    Now, he's just a sad old sack.
    In Organising Live/Band Aid he demonstrably did more good than most if not all of us will do in our lifetime. It was the original lets not forget. So I'll give him a pass.
    But in wanting to Remain in the EU with its Common Agricultural Policy that does more damage to African farmers than all the good Band Aid ever did he is helping undo that legacy.

    Scrapping the CAP and letting Africa trade with us on the same terms as Europe can will do more good than Band Aid ever could.
    If you say so Philip, although I don't think Bozo and his pet lizard have African farmers in mind in making their pitch for out.
    Whether they do or don't (I do) they have made that argument before.

    Either way are you happy to keep Africa in penury with massive tariffs killing their development because a leaver may have impure thoughts?
    Your team are free marketeers? The same sort of people who have been bleeding Africa dry since colonial times, as are the inners. You don't suppose the sweetcorn and green beans grown in Senegal and sold in Tescos a that outers are any more in favour of supporting small farmers in Africa than inners. The real problems of Africa do not register with either.
    If we abolish CAP and put Africa on the same trade terms as Europe then we would not just cut our own food costs but provide a major boon to the African economy.
    I find the Remain preference for "protect our farmers by keeping the wogs poor" most distasteful.
    As your interlocutors have implicitly conceded through changing the spotlight to industry, CAP does nothing to protect EU farmers from Sub-Saharan African farmers, due to the Lomé and Cotonou framework (oops - sounds dangerously like expertise - an unwanted commodity subject to tariffs).
    Tariffs still very much exist on agricultural produce to Europe fron Africa post-Cotonou.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It seems that this evening's lesson is that the Albanian option results in a narrow but ultimately clear defeat at France's hands.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    I understand from twitter that the Royal Northern College of Music held its own EU referendum among students and staff and Leave won with 56% of the vote. A thin straw in the wind ofcourse but suprising if the country as a whole is about to vote Remain.

    I suspect that there'll be a massive regional split. Most of the north will go for leave, in order for Remain to still win, places like Berks/Bucks/Oxon must all go by a decent margin to Remain, and I'm not convinced that they will.
    Comres today has the North backing Leave 54% to 46% against a UK wide margin of 51% to 49% for Remain. The Midlands backs Leave 52% to 48%, the South (including London) Remain 52% to 48%. England as a whole is 51% to 49% Leave, Scotland is 68% to 32% Remain
    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/The-Sun_EU-Referendum-Poll_June-2016-1.pdf
    I'd wager good money that in the South the SE&London will split something like 54 to 46 for remain only for the SW to balance it out to the above figures.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Certainly, it is hard to see how all the most dedicated leavers can be right about our post-Brexit future. Leave the economic forecasts to one side, there’s no way leftist Leavers who deplore the ‘neoliberal’ excesses of the EU and dream of one future outwith its clutches can be reconciled with the actual neoliberals – such as Douglas Carswell and Daniel Hannan – who have provided so much of the intellectual ballast for the Leave campaign. Then again it’s hard to square Hannan, who thinks current levels of immigration are roughly appropriate, with a Leave campaign whose central message is, in essence, If you want a Turk for a neighbour, vote Remain. (Sometimes this, it is true, gets a more nuanced presentation: we don’t want unskilled Poles but we do want skilled Pakistanis. If you believe this, then you’ll believe anything.)

    But I cannot avoid the thought that while many of them may have a coherent intellectual case against the EU, what really motivates so many other Leavers is something else: a much more narrow conception of Britain and Britishness than the one I find attractive. A conception that thinks Britain is broken, that she has been betrayed, that there is something dismal about the modern world, that something has been stolen from them, that so many of the things that make Britain a success – its relaxed and liberal internationalism – are instead signs of failure and national capitulation. I just don’t think any of that is true. Nor do I ascribe Britain’s successes to the EU – though I don’t believe it has hurt – but I can’t help thinking that Leave is a kind of Retreat. And an unnecessary one at that.


    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/england-gone-mad/
  • Options
    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Isit too late to take the World Cup off Russia?
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    tyson said:

    Jobabob said:

    Anecdotes are pointless really aren't they? I think Leave has the edge, because that's what the polls say.

    To reassure you, though the betting money is still going on remain- 30 million plus on this market Betfair, and remain at 2-1 on pretty much

    Why is the big money, in the many millions, still backing remain?

    Either the punters with the cash know something? Or what? I don't know. Clearly, the opinion polls are still being ignored.
    London bubble? I wrote earlier how many professionals down here don't seem to think Leave can win. I can only assume that is because they only ever meet other people from professional London circles, which are solidly Remain.

    I am not with them, I'm worried. Very worried.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    Scott_P said:

    Certainly, it is hard to see how all the most dedicated leavers can be right about our post-Brexit future. Leave the economic forecasts to one side, there’s no way leftist Leavers who deplore the ‘neoliberal’ excesses of the EU and dream of one future outwith its clutches can be reconciled with the actual neoliberals – such as Douglas Carswell and Daniel Hannan – who have provided so much of the intellectual ballast for the Leave campaign. Then again it’s hard to square Hannan, who thinks current levels of immigration are roughly appropriate, with a Leave campaign whose central message is, in essence, If you want a Turk for a neighbour, vote Remain. (Sometimes this, it is true, gets a more nuanced presentation: we don’t want unskilled Poles but we do want skilled Pakistanis. If you believe this, then you’ll believe anything.)

    But I cannot avoid the thought that while many of them may have a coherent intellectual case against the EU, what really motivates so many other Leavers is something else: a much more narrow conception of Britain and Britishness than the one I find attractive. A conception that thinks Britain is broken, that she has been betrayed, that there is something dismal about the modern world, that something has been stolen from them, that so many of the things that make Britain a success – its relaxed and liberal internationalism – are instead signs of failure and national capitulation. I just don’t think any of that is true. Nor do I ascribe Britain’s successes to the EU – though I don’t believe it has hurt – but I can’t help thinking that Leave is a kind of Retreat. And an unnecessary one at that.


    Ah, Alex Massie.

    Quelle surprise.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    I understand from twitter that the Royal Northern College of Music held its own EU referendum among students and staff and Leave won with 56% of the vote. A thin straw in the wind ofcourse but suprising if the country as a whole is about to vote Remain.

    I suspect that there'll be a massive regional split. Most of the north will go for leave, in order for Remain to still win, places like Berks/Bucks/Oxon must all go by a decent margin to Remain, and I'm not convinced that they will.
    Comres today has the North backing Leave 54% to 46% against a UK wide margin of 51% to 49% for Remain. The Midlands backs Leave 52% to 48%, the South (including London) Remain 52% to 48%. England as a whole is 51% to 49% Leave, Scotland is 68% to 32% Remain
    http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/The-Sun_EU-Referendum-Poll_June-2016-1.pdf
    I'd wager good money that in the South the SE&London will split something like 54 to 46 for remain only for the SW to balance it out to the above figures.
    Probably
  • Options
    ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 165
    I think we must now report on the South excluding London. The capital is as seperate from the South politically, demographicaly and economically as it is the midlands. Without London the South looks in line with the rest of England.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    MP_SE said:

    SeanT said:

    Hooray Henries makes the front page of the Guardian I see.
    That's such a damning shot of Geldof. Sad.
    Not just Geldof. Trouble is that the image sums up so much about Remain.

    And the Mirror article with the terminal cancer story is just an awful follow up to it.
    Louise Mensch is going to destroy Geldof tomorrow night on QT.
    I doubt it.
    Who gives a toss what either of them say? Why are these two clowns even on QT?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    Part of me wonders if Osborne going so very hard in recent days is one last act of loyalty to Cameron - the PM has to face off potential challenges even if Remain win (even expediting his own leaving day may not do it), but if Osborne, having made himself even more unpopular with the public than he was and pissing off the Leaver party and even some Remainers, were sacked by Cameron and not given a similarly important position, maybe Osborne thinks that would be enough for Cameron to remain in place and secure the overall tone of the party.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,281

    Fighting the CRS is even more stupid than fighting the steroid addled Russian military reservists.

    Tbf they didn't really fight the steroid addled Russian military reservists on Saturday; never seen middle aged, overweight drunks move so fast.

  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393
    Fenster said:

    Tata Steel have written to their staff confirming the need to stay in the EU. Could have a big influence in South Wales and the Valleys for remain

    Stephen Kinnock is the MP for Aberavon.

    The TATA / Remain letter reads something along the lines of 'Vote Remain to keep the steelworks alive and all 300 members of my family employed in Brussels".
    I don't think the steelworkers will see it that way. Stephen Kinnock is fighting very hard for the steelworkers jobs and production at Port Talbot
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2016

    I think we must now report on the South excluding London. The capital is as seperate from the South politically, demographicaly and economically as it is the midlands. Without London the South looks in line with the rest of England.

    London friends are moving to Manningtree and are unhappy at the amount of Leave posters up among their soon-to-be neighbours!!
This discussion has been closed.