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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB/Polling Matters TV show June 15th: The EU Referendum spe
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB/Polling Matters TV show June 15th: The EU Referendum special
This week is Keiran Pedley is joined by Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes, Professor Matthew Goodwin of the University of Kent, and Adam Ludlow of ComRes. The topics under discussion were the EU referendum polling, betting odds, turnout, immigration vs the economy, The Sun endorsement, and the implications for Cameron and Corbyn.
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1. Have just finished delivering 240 leaflets for LEAVE tonight and also handed over 350 to a new delivery volunteer that attended a weekend stall. No sign of REMAIN leaflets in a solid LD area.
2. Relative in 80s lifelong Labour voted LEAVE - without prompting.
3. Trades people grabbing leaflets out of hands and saying thanks. C1s and C2s are going LEAVE.
4. In one last bastion of the Lib Dems they are only delivering "thank you for voting us in at the local election" leaflets.... wtf - dont they know there is a referendum on! These LD cllrs are there for the £10k + expenses pa (some are on £20k) so no reason to upset LEAVE voters.
5. Only correx boards for LEAVE are up in areas that only have LD councillors....
1) Expats
2) Northern Ireland
3) Gibraltar
4) People bottling it on the day
5) Undecideds plumping for what they know
6) Unusually high youth turnout
7) Uncertainty whether previous working-class non-voters make it to the polls
8) The Remain reservoirs of inner London and Scotland, where they will score 60-80%
9) A last minute Vow
Apart from that, everything's fine
Either way are you happy to keep Africa in penury with massive tariffs killing their development because a leaver may have impure thoughts?
"The European Union is getting closer to granting Turks visa-free travel to Europe, but talks on this will continue until at least October, European Council President Donald Tusk said in an interview with German newspaper Bild published on Monday."
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-turkey-visas-idUSKCN0YZ0LK
I am an infrequent contributor to these pages, popping up when I am electorally active campaiging and lurking quietly at other times. My two pennies worth is that the split to leave in the Con and Lab votes in England combined with higher differential turnout for older Leave voters will see Leave comfortably home. I promise to apologise to all concerned on the 24th if I am wrong.
Top executives of General Electric, Unilever and Airbus wrote to Vote Leave claiming that it had misused public funds and used the logos “for propaganda purposes” when, in fact, they supported Britain’s EU membership.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d1e83d3e-3309-11e6-ad39-3fee5ffe5b5b.html#axzz4BgMTTglj
Also "British adults are split as to what is going to happen in the vote next week. Equal proportions say they think it is likely (47%) and unlikely (49%) that Britain will leave the EU. "
This intelligence of crowds is one of the best for LEAVE I can recall.
We don't have a European Constitution and Turkey won't join the EU in our lifetimes.
Michael Fallon's brother has been very quiet in recent weeks! ;-)
And, in sheer panic, and for reasons of self protection, I told her the dog...the cutest animal possible, had vomited on the sofa. The mess doesn't even have a hint of red wine in it anymore.
And guess what, my wife, believes me. And she feels sorry for me.
All's well that ends well. Except I have become a lesser person.
..
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/development/economic-partnerships/index_en.htm
1. A a very large vote for AB to REMAIN vs LEAVE (56% vs 36%)
2. C1s being almost 50/50.
The above two are out of line with at least one recent pollster, sorry I cannot recall which.
The AB number vs DE is almost 4:1!
Also 2:1 split for past Labour voters REMAIN vs LEAVE. Not what some in Labour party are reporting, maybe helped if a large part of Labour LEAVE just do not vote.
http://hotair.com/archives/2016/06/15/former-co-worker-says-company-told-him-it-had-to-be-careful-because-mateen-was-muslim/
Giles Fraser comes out for Leave in the Guardian.
http://tinyurl.com/jk7u4ro
The Guardianistas are all worried about their ISAs if Leave win.
In what way is visa-free travel in any way synonymous with de facto membership or a step in that direction? Is the US effectively part of the EU because it has visa-free travel?
The EU lets Africa produce raw goods it is good at but levies very high tariffs on processed goods (so that the processing occurs in Europe). As anyone with a basic understanding of economics and history should understand the value and growth comes from moving past raw goods and into processing too.
The EU levies no tariffs on coffee beans (which the EU can't produce) but levels tariffs on roasted coffee so that in 2014 Africa made $2.4 billion from exporting coffee, while Germany made $3.8 billion from re-exporting roasted coffee. It should be shocking that Germany makes more money from coffee beans than Africa does. Why should Africa be blocked from selling us roasted coffee beans so that the Germans can instead?
Ha! As long as you have got the chianti out it will all be fine once it all dries off. Buy the dog a biscuit. She'll never need to know.
In fact, it is now getting socially difficult for me when it comes up in conversation, which is increasingly frequent.
The North coast of Spain is gorgeous, with interesting small towns, great food and good beaches even in cities such as Santander and San Sebastian. I sailed along the coast there last July and it wasn't too crowded at all. There can be sea fogs some days and a lot cooler than the med in August.
Fox jr raves about Albania for beaches, mountains and value, but is in the backpacker rather than family holiday milieu.
Somewhere not too hot, not too crowded is key though.
Son on a psychology conversion course in a Northern City was horrified to find he was the only Remainer out of 10.
We had two canvass groups operating tonight in Sarf East London; VERY strong scores for Leave.
At the end of our chat he said my case for Leave was the most intellectually coherent he'd heard, and he wished everyone was as rational as me.
Which was nice
P.S. One for Casino – my pb autocorrect keeps changing europhilia to urophilia
My neighbour's just put a Remain poster up in his window ;-(
Split among friends and family is 60/40 Remain, too. Where are all these people voting Leave that I keep getting told about? Shy?
It's a quiet town will not much above 4 storeys. The Northern part near the old town is the priciest near the yacht club and the very expensive flats and villas. Further South the beach widens out and the prices fall. Only one small section of the beach is full in August, just walk a little further from town and you won't be troubled. It is not a place for night life and is mostly stuffed full of restaurants and so it's clientele are either old people or people with very young chidren. Not only are the waves non existent the bay is so shallow , you can walk for ages before the water gets above the knees.
When ever I'm there the weight of the world just melts away as I float on the water staring at the mountains. Or my favourite sitting at a hotel bar on the Pine Walk looking out to sea with a big jug of Sangria laughing with my sister and slowly sinking in my chair as the as the drink and the sunset takes effect. Sigh, why can't I win the lottery.
Almost nobody I know and come into contact with up here in Scotland is even speaking about the referendum. It's a bit bizarre up here.
Make of that what you will.
The former are starting to get very emotional.
So, Mrs May, our HOME SECRETARY SINCE THE 12th MAY 2010, now feels it would be lovely to let fewer people in. Why didn't you say so before Theresa? I'll get right on it.
Does that help?
I ride it out with platitudes - 'there is some serious discontent in this country', 'I'm confident that the will of the British people will triumph'
Being north facing it gets a breeze and is cooler than south facing resorts. The promenade is mostly pedestrianised so a very pleasant and entertaining evening stroll. There are Spaniards and locals eating out in local places but later than the tourists.
Recommended for families who do not want nightclubbers and drunks rolling about the place.
The very purpose of a tariff is to try and make a trade unviable. It is deliberate policy of the EU tariffs to try and prevent African development to protect German processors.
I was in the pub earlier tonight
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/743188488141570048