tl;dr the closer it is in Sunderland, the better it is for Remain.
No nation which thought well of politicians would invent the overnight count.
The bottom line is that we'll learn an awful lot from the results — one way or another. I will be doing something on the night, though precisely what is still to be decided. If you just want to close out your bets profitably, you should probably go to sleep and wake up around 4am. I'll see you then…
Considering Nissan has threatened the plant there if Brexit and the fact you can weigh the labour vote, and the fact labour majorities went UP in 2015 despite all the talk from ukip if it is even close Leave have surely won? I know that not anywhere near all the Labour vote is pro E.U but job losses for that factory would hurt that city badly.
Also Swindon has a Toyota factory which has been threatened, this was supposd to be a secret ballot but hey ho.
Honda is in Swindon. Toyota is in Derby.
Both Nissan and Toyota said the same about the Euro and then didn't.
''Hold on. Why? Why does Remain feel the need to advertise so heavily to banks, brokers and other City institutions and their workers? ''
The reason is Remain MUST hold the City. If it were to emerge the City thought itself better outside the EU, it would destroy Remain's economic case utterly. It would atomise it.
Remain must try to keep the City onside at all costs.
Generally the investment banks tend towards IN while the asset managers towards OUT (seeing their centre of gravity as closer/moving towards the US).
The investment banks being, mainly, european or american and the asset managers being british has nothing to do with that, I suppose
It is what it is, Charles, as I said, it was found that the asset managers identified themselves more with the US so not sure what conclusion you can draw from that, either.
The conclusion that you can draw is that the EU is still - after 2 decades of promises - not open to free trade in services. And that the French and Germans have no intention of letting that change. So asset managers look to the US - as a regulated but more open market.
Investment banks are either universal European banks (who are leant on to support Europe) or large US/global banks who like using the UK as a bridgehead to Europe. (RBS is in tatters. Barclay's investment bank is basically US orientated). Neither group has the UK's interests at heart
Both have their shareholders' interests at heart. As is right.
And yes I know who RBS' shareholders are but don't forget the aim is to swap current shareholders for future ones.
My point is that they are not interested in what is good for the City or for the UK.
It's not their job to be. Their job is to maximise shareholder value.
To put the £20bn to £40bn in context, Osborne's over-borrowing has now reached £180bn. By the end of 2016 it will be approaching £240bn.
Britain's annual GDP is also approximately £60bn lower than Osborne predicted it would be.
Very good point.
Doesn't that rather put the membership fee of £8 billion into context?
It would do, but its Remain that keeps on trying to make this an economic argument without understanding that for a substantial group of voters economics is not the be all and end all.
I don't think it's just about economics, by any means. I'll leave that argument to Marxist historians.
I think the economic arguments favour Leave in the medium-long term.
Voting Leave is an investment.
You think Brexit would be the beginning of the end of the EU. Your predictions are based on wishful thinking.
There is a not inconsiderable risk that that would be the case. We could easily be looking at an Emperor's New Clothes situation where the unthinkable suddenly becomes very obvious.
France, Holland and Austria could all elect far-/populist-rightwing governments in the next year or so, which would at the minimum profoundly transform the EU and quite possibly lead to its end.
It would profoundly transform the politics of the EU. I think the institutions are stronger than you realise. If nothing else, while populist movements may be anti-Brussels in tone, they are not anti their neighbours. If there is a collective political shift, those countries will be quite amenable to working together within the EU.
If there were a collective shift then yes. However, there's unlikely to be a collective shift and gaining any kind of consensus will be difficult. If these countries are continually outvoted by a mainstream that the governments were elected in a protest against, it could very easily lead to further withdrawals. On the other hand, appeasing them in their concerns will be a very uncomfortable process for both mainstream governments and - even more so - the Commission itself.
Whether the EU survives the next 10 years is likely to depend on whether the Juncker or the Tusk mindset wins out.
Mr. W, I mentioned that recently. It seems (as a Remainer told me) the EU invented their own little department to tick off their own accounts, proving how trustworthy and corruption-free the organisation is
To put the £20bn to £40bn in context, Osborne's over-borrowing has now reached £180bn. By the end of 2016 it will be approaching £240bn.
Britain's annual GDP is also approximately £60bn lower than Osborne predicted it would be.
Very good point.
Doesn't that rather put the membership fee of £8 billion into context?
It would do, but its Remain that keeps on trying to make this an economic argument without understanding that for a substantial group of voters economics is not the be all and end all.
I don't think it's just about economics, by any means. I'll leave that argument to Marxist historians.
Since we've had proper polling in this country apart from 1997, every election and referendum has been won by the side who is considered the best on the economy.
It's how voters choose.
In General Election you get the same policies from either side with slightly different window dressing (at least you did pre-Corbyn) so the economy, and their competence at managing it was the only meaningful differentiator.
I can tell you live in The Philippines and that you have no blinking idea of the politics of the U.K.
Hi you said remain will win by 12-15% is that because of their lead on the economy?
''Hold on. Why? Why does Remain feel the need to advertise so heavily to banks, brokers and other City institutions and their workers? ''
The reason is Remain MUST hold the City. If it were to emerge the City thought itself better outside the EU, it would destroy Remain's economic case utterly. It would atomise it.
Remain must try to keep the City onside at all costs.
Generally the investment banks tend towards IN while the asset managers towards OUT (seeing their centre of gravity as closer/moving towards the US).
The investment banks being, mainly, european or american and the asset managers being british has nothing to do with that, I suppose
It is what it is, Charles, as I said, it was found that the asset managers identified themselves more with the US so not sure what conclusion you can draw from that, either.
The conclusion that you can draw is that the EU is still - after 2 decades of promises - not open to free trade in services. And that the French and Germans have no intention of letting that change. So asset managers look to the US - as a regulated but more open market.
Investment banks are either universal European banks (who are leant on to support Europe) or large US/global banks who like using the UK as a bridgehead to Europe. (RBS is in tatters. Barclay's investment bank is basically US orientated). Neither group has the UK's interests at heart
Both have their shareholders' interests at heart. As is right.
And yes I know who RBS' shareholders are but don't forget the aim is to swap current shareholders for future ones.
My point is that they are not interested in what is good for the City or for the UK.
It's not their job to be. Their job is to maximise shareholder value.
You need to word your question careful when you talk to lawyers, every EU books has been signed off since 2007, the question is when was the last time the signing off of EU auditors wasn't qualified.
The secret of success is to pick the fights that you can win, and the fights that matter.
You think Europe is a lost cause and we should just walk away? It's not our fight?
Interesting in light of recent history.
No, I think trying to reform the EU is a lost cause and we should stand true to our values as a beacon of liberal democracy, a candle that shall never be put out.
Sort-of. From your source: "In every area of the budget (apart from administration), and overall, enough spending fell outside of the proper procedures to pass the 2% 'materiality threshold'—the point at which the auditors view these 'errors' as significant."
You wouldn't see Cameron fighting a ground campaign with the public on this in a month of Sundays.
Now, now no need to insult poor old Scott, just because he has nothing better to do with his life than sit there and monitor Twitter so he can copy it all to PB, doesn't mean he is a sad loser.
Oh wait, you were talking about the paid activists from the BSE campaign.
Sort-of. From your source: "In every area of the budget (apart from administration), and overall, enough spending fell outside of the proper procedures to pass the 2% 'materiality threshold'—the point at which the auditors view these 'errors' as significant."
''Hold on. Why? Why does Remain feel the need to advertise so heavily to banks, brokers and other City institutions and their workers? ''
The reason is Remain MUST hold the City. If it were to emerge the City thought itself better outside the EU, it would destroy Remain's economic case utterly. It would atomise it.
Remain must try to keep the City onside at all costs.
Generally the investment banks tend towards IN while the asset managers towards OUT (seeing their centre of gravity as closer/moving towards the US).
The investment banks being, mainly, european or american and the asset managers being british has nothing to do with that, I suppose
It is what it is, Charles, as I said, it was found that the asset managers identified themselves more with the US so not sure what conclusion you can draw from that, either.
The conclusion that you can draw is that the EU is still - after 2 decades of promises - not open to free trade in services. And that the French and Germans have no intention of letting that change. So asset managers look to the US - as a regulated but more open market.
Investment banks are either universal European banks (who are leant on to support Europe) or large US/global banks who like using the UK as a bridgehead to Europe. (RBS is in tatters. Barclay's investment bank is basically US orientated). Neither group has the UK's interests at heart
Both have their shareholders' interests at heart. As is right.
And yes I know who RBS' shareholders are but don't forget the aim is to swap current shareholders for future ones.
My point is that they are not interested in what is good for the City or for the UK.
It's not their job to be. Their job is to maximise shareholder value.
And I'm interested in what is good for the UK, not what's good for a bunch of bankers.
The secret of success is to pick the fights that you can win, and the fights that matter.
You think Europe is a lost cause and we should just walk away? It's not our fight?
Interesting in light of recent history.
No, I think trying to reform the EU is a lost cause and we should stand true to our values as a beacon of liberal democracy, a candle that shall never be put out.
What democratic reform are you seeking if we vote out? Not sure Westminster is a candle today.
Not that it means much (ok, anything) but I see that he has Wirral close to a tie, which is what Denis MacShane tweeted earlier is actually happening. Ie, that would imply the neck-and-neck national polls are right.
The polls appear tied. We have been here before. The polls have form for consistently underestimating the unfashionable or 'nasty' option (Tory/No to Indy even No to AV) which cause has duly gone on to win. Few causes are as unfashionable as Leave (particularly the higher up the social scale you go). Shy Tories in 2015 have nothing on Shy Leavers (particularly if your party leader, the POTUS, Gov of BE and every expert and opinion former under the sun says you will bring on catastrophe if you do what you are planning on doing. Why bother admitting it? I think we are looking at a Leave win with a lead of 5%.
Not that it means much (ok, anything) but I see that he has Wirral close to a tie, which is what Denis MacShane tweeted earlier is actually happening. Ie, that would imply the neck-and-neck national polls are right.
Interesting article although grating that it uses the silly Americanism "could care less" in place of the proper (and correct) "couldn't care less".
The secret of success is to pick the fights that you can win, and the fights that matter.
You think Europe is a lost cause and we should just walk away? It's not our fight?
Interesting in light of recent history.
No, I think trying to reform the EU is a lost cause and we should stand true to our values as a beacon of liberal democracy, a candle that shall never be put out.
What democratic reform are you seeking if we vote out? Not sure Westminster is a candle today.
Pesonally I'd be looking to strengthen the independence of the house of commons and separate it from the executive. But don't have time to go into it in detail
''Hold on. Why? Why does Remain feel the need to advertise so heavily to banks, brokers and other City institutions and their workers? ''
The reason is Remain MUST hold the City. If it were to emerge the City thought itself better outside the EU, it would destroy Remain's economic case utterly. It would atomise it.
Remain must try to keep the City onside at all costs.
Generally the investment banks tend towards IN while the asset managers towards OUT (seeing their centre of gravity as closer/moving towards the US).
The investment banks being, mainly, european or american and the asset managers being british has nothing to do with that, I suppose
It is what it is, Charles, as I said, it was found that the asset managers identified themselves more with the US so not sure what conclusion you can draw from that, either.
The conclusion that you can draw is that the EU is still - after 2 decades of promises - not open to free trade in services. And that the French and Germans have no intention of letting that change. So asset managers look to the US - as a regulated but more open market.
Investment banks are either universal European banks (who are leant on to support Europe) or large US/global banks who like using the UK as a bridgehead to Europe. (RBS is in tatters. Barclay's investment bank is basically US orientated). Neither group has the UK's interests at heart
Both have their shareholders' interests at heart. As is right.
And yes I know who RBS' shareholders are but don't forget the aim is to swap current shareholders for future ones.
My point is that they are not interested in what is good for the City or for the UK.
It's not their job to be. Their job is to maximise shareholder value.
Well I think that is the point Charles is making.
yes I get that, and they came to the conclusion that to stay in the EU would be of benefit to their shareholders (and presumably stakeholders).
I'm not actually sure why I was making that point so that is a great time to sign off for the moment..
I'd swap Koreans, Indians, Chinese, Japs, Malaysians, South Africans, ANZACS for Romanians and Bulgarians [except @Casino_Royale wife] any day of the week.
The whole Waycist argument is pathetic from Remain. Claiming they're internationalists is hilarious - they looking at 28 countries, we're looking at 193.
I can understand the Romanians - they're all gypsies and vampires and all that - but what have the Bulgarians done to provoke your ire?
I'd swap Koreans, Indians, Chinese, Japs, Malaysians, South Africans, ANZACS for Romanians and Bulgarians [except @Casino_Royale wife] any day of the week.
The secret of success is to pick the fights that you can win, and the fights that matter.
You think Europe is a lost cause and we should just walk away? It's not our fight?
Interesting in light of recent history.
No, I think trying to reform the EU is a lost cause and we should stand true to our values as a beacon of liberal democracy, a candle that shall never be put out.
What democratic reform are you seeking if we vote out? Not sure Westminster is a candle today.
Pesonally I'd be looking to strengthen the house of commons and separate it from the executive. But don't have time to go into it in detail
If Brexit is campaigning to win on the democratic argument, it would do well to advocate some specific democratic reform of Westminster.
As things stand, I personally have very little confidence in Westminster. If Leave argued that we would reform the Lords or some form of PR for a second chamber as part of withdrawal it would be compelling to me.
Miss Plato, must say I'm less engaged, largely because I've not heard anything to make me reconsider my probable Leave position.
The Woe, Doom and Death approach of Remain didn't entice me to consider their arguments seriously.
Oh, I'm getting a big kick from pushing LabourLeave/Non-EU immigrant campaigns - I totally get their viewpoint. We're all on the same team.
Minority interest groups funded by the eurosceptic Tory right.
One of the most arrogant viewpoints - not only do you not understand how people not in your party might have different views, but now you're ignoring those who are members of your own party.
And Europhiles wonder why sceptics can be embittered?
''Hold on. Why? Why does Remain feel the need to advertise so heavily to banks, brokers and other City institutions and their workers? ''
The reason is Remain MUST hold the City. If it were to emerge the City thought itself better outside the EU, it would destroy Remain's economic case utterly. It would atomise it.
Remain must try to keep the City onside at all costs.
Generally the investment banks tend towards IN while the asset managers towards OUT (seeing their centre of gravity as closer/moving towards the US).
The investment banks being, mainly, european or american and the asset managers being british has nothing to do with that, I suppose
It is what it is, Charles, as I said, it was found that the asset managers identified themselves more with the US so not sure what conclusion you can draw from that, either.
The conclusion that you can draw is that the EU is still - after 2 decades of promises - not open to free trade in services. And that the French and Germans have no intention of letting that change. So asset managers look to the US - as a regulated but more open market.
Investment banks are either universal European banks (who are leant on to support Europe) or large US/global banks who like using the UK as a bridgehead to Europe. (RBS is in tatters. Barclay's investment bank is basically US orientated). Neither group has the UK's interests at heart
Both have their shareholders' interests at heart. As is right.
And yes I know who RBS' shareholders are but don't forget the aim is to swap current shareholders for future ones.
My point is that they are not interested in what is good for the City or for the UK.
It's not their job to be. Their job is to maximise shareholder value.
And I'm interested in what is good for the UK, not what's good for a bunch of bankers.
tl;dr the closer it is in Sunderland, the better it is for Remain.
No nation which thought well of politicians would invent the overnight count.
The bottom line is that we'll learn an awful lot from the results — one way or another. I will be doing something on the night, though precisely what is still to be decided. If you just want to close out your bets profitably, you should probably go to sleep and wake up around 4am. I'll see you then…
Considering Nissan has threatened the plant there if Brexit and the fact you can weigh the labour vote, and the fact labour majorities went UP in 2015 despite all the talk from ukip if it is even close Leave have surely won? I know that not anywhere near all the Labour vote is pro E.U but job losses for that factory would hurt that city badly.
Also Swindon has a Toyota factory which has been threatened, this was supposd to be a secret ballot but hey ho.
Swindon is Honda
Is this the same Toyota that said they'd pull out if we didn't join the Euro?
Miss Plato, must say I'm less engaged, largely because I've not heard anything to make me reconsider my probable Leave position.
The Woe, Doom and Death approach of Remain didn't entice me to consider their arguments seriously.
Oh, I'm getting a big kick from pushing LabourLeave/Non-EU immigrant campaigns - I totally get their viewpoint. We're all on the same team.
Minority interest groups funded by the eurosceptic Tory right.
One of the most arrogant viewpoints - not only do you not understand how people not in your party might have different views, but now you're ignoring those who are members of your own party.
And Europhiles wonder why sceptics can be embittered?
Yes the willingness of Leavers to accept alternative views has been a beacon of light in this tawdry debate.
The secret of success is to pick the fights that you can win, and the fights that matter.
You think Europe is a lost cause and we should just walk away? It's not our fight?
Interesting in light of recent history.
No, I think trying to reform the EU is a lost cause and we should stand true to our values as a beacon of liberal democracy, a candle that shall never be put out.
What democratic reform are you seeking if we vote out? Not sure Westminster is a candle today.
Pesonally I'd be looking to strengthen the house of commons and separate it from the executive. But don't have time to go into it in detail
If Brexit is campaigning to win on the democratic argument, it would do well to advocate some specific democratic reform of Westminster.
As things stand, I personally have very little confidence in Westminster. If Leave argued that we would reform the Lords or some form of PR for a second chamber as part of withdrawal it would be compelling to me.
They're not the government.
But I guess you'd like Nick Clegg's article yesterday (which irritated me) that it is outrageous for members of the House of Lords to object to the EU on the grounds that it embeds a democratic deficit.
First draft of our EU reaction to Brexit report is being prepared. Should have it by the end of the day. Already some interesting insights. I've been granted permission to post some of the political stuff so I'll read it tonight and copy down anything I think is relevant.
''Hold on. Why? Why does Remain feel the need to advertise so heavily to banks, brokers and other City institutions and their workers? ''
The reason is Remain MUST hold the City. If it were to emerge the City thought itself better outside the EU, it would destroy Remain's economic case utterly. It would atomise it.
Remain must try to keep the City onside at all costs.
Generally the investment banks tend towards IN while the asset managers towards OUT (seeing their centre of gravity as closer/moving towards the US).
The investment banks being, mainly, european or american and the asset managers being british has nothing to do with that, I suppose
It is what it is, Charles, as I said, it was found that the asset managers identified themselves more with the US so not sure what conclusion you can draw from that, either.
The conclusion that you can draw is that the EU is still - after 2 decades of promises - not open to free trade in services. And that the French and Germans have no intention of letting that change. So asset managers look to the US - as a regulated but more open market.
Investment banks are either universal European banks (who are leant on to support Europe) or large US/global banks who like using the UK as a bridgehead to Europe. (RBS is in tatters. Barclay's investment bank is basically US orientated). Neither group has the UK's interests at heart
Both have their shareholders' interests at heart. As is right.
And yes I know who RBS' shareholders are but don't forget the aim is to swap current shareholders for future ones.
My point is that they are not interested in what is good for the City or for the UK.
It's not their job to be. Their job is to maximise shareholder value.
And I'm interested in what is good for the UK, not what's good for a bunch of bankers.
That's why there's a government and regulators.
The issue is that the big firms lobby at the European level for high barriers to entry. This is purely out of self-interest, not out of a deep and abiding concern for the UK. *That's* why they want to stay in the EU.
The secret of success is to pick the fights that you can win, and the fights that matter.
You think Europe is a lost cause and we should just walk away? It's not our fight?
Interesting in light of recent history.
No, I think trying to reform the EU is a lost cause and we should stand true to our values as a beacon of liberal democracy, a candle that shall never be put out.
What democratic reform are you seeking if we vote out? Not sure Westminster is a candle today.
Pesonally I'd be looking to strengthen the house of commons and separate it from the executive. But don't have time to go into it in detail
If Brexit is campaigning to win on the democratic argument, it would do well to advocate some specific democratic reform of Westminster.
As things stand, I personally have very little confidence in Westminster. If Leave argued that we would reform the Lords or some form of PR for a second chamber as part of withdrawal it would be compelling to me.
Personally I think Westminster is a shining example for democracy that has been imitated across the globe which is the most sincere form of flattery. But if you think it needs reforming then the chances of that happening are greatest with a Leave vote. If Westminster is our only major Parliament then all attention and talk of reform will be focused upon that, rather than the present pass the parcel of blaming Brussels and talking of reforming it rather than taking responsibility for ourselves.
The secret of success is to pick the fights that you can win, and the fights that matter.
You think Europe is a lost cause and we should just walk away? It's not our fight?
Interesting in light of recent history.
No, I think trying to reform the EU is a lost cause and we should stand true to our values as a beacon of liberal democracy, a candle that shall never be put out.
What democratic reform are you seeking if we vote out? Not sure Westminster is a candle today.
Pesonally I'd be looking to strengthen the house of commons and separate it from the executive. But don't have time to go into it in detail
If Brexit is campaigning to win on the democratic argument, it would do well to advocate some specific democratic reform of Westminster.
As things stand, I personally have very little confidence in Westminster. If Leave argued that we would reform the Lords or some form of PR for a second chamber as part of withdrawal it would be compelling to me.
Personally I think Westminster is a shining example for democracy that has been imitated across the globe which is the most sincere form of flattery. But if you think it needs reforming then the chances of that happening are greatest with a Leave vote. If Westminster is our only major Parliament then all attention and talk of reform will be focused upon that, rather than the present pass the parcel of blaming Brussels and talking of reforming it rather than taking responsibility for ourselves.
Yes, that's where I stand on the issue as well, currently the government (Tory or Labour) just blame Brussels for anything unpopular. Without that easy scapegoat we may see a chance of real reform to our democratic process. I'm one of the few people in favour of PR in the HoC, I think it would allow the nation to realign itself properly and be able to vote in favour of policies they want instead of against parties they don't want. At the moment there is no party which is advocating Libertarian principles, it is a party that would appeal to me and around 10% of the population, enough to get 65 seats and major representation, but we are stuck voting Conservative because they imitate our desired policy of small government closest.
I'd swap Koreans, Indians, Chinese, Japs, Malaysians, South Africans, ANZACS for Romanians and Bulgarians [except @Casino_Royale wife] any day of the week.
The whole Waycist argument is pathetic from Remain. Claiming they're internationalists is hilarious - they looking at 28 countries, we're looking at 193.
A blatantly racist comment - what is wrong with them?
I only had a tiny sum on, but the win is still my biggest ever by a long way. I may use some of that money to open a Sports Index (think those are the chaps) account and try my hand, with tiny stakes, at spread betting on F1.
@MSmithsonPB: A WILLIAM HILL customer walked into a Leeds betting shop this morning & staked £60,000 on REMAIN at 2/5. He'll win £24k if he's right
Even if it's true, it doesn't matter. In every General Election people will walk into a bookies and put large sums on the outcome: some for one side, others for the other side. Much as I would like to use them as a predictor, they just ain't.
The secret of success is to pick the fights that you can win, and the fights that matter.
You think Europe is a lost cause and we should just walk away? It's not our fight?
Interesting in light of recent history.
No, I think trying to reform the EU is a lost cause and we should stand true to our values as a beacon of liberal democracy, a candle that shall never be put out.
What democratic reform are you seeking if we vote out? Not sure Westminster is a candle today.
Pesonally I'd be looking to strengthen the house of commons and separate it from the executive. But don't have time to go into it in detail
If Brexit is campaigning to win on the democratic argument, it would do well to advocate some specific democratic reform of Westminster.
As things stand, I personally have very little confidence in Westminster. If Leave argued that we would reform the Lords or some form of PR for a second chamber as part of withdrawal it would be compelling to me.
Personally I think Westminster is a shining example for democracy that has been imitated across the globe which is the most sincere form of flattery. But if you think it needs reforming then the chances of that happening are greatest with a Leave vote. If Westminster is
Yes, that's where I stand on the issue as well, currently the government (Tory or Labour) just blame Brussels for anything unpopular. Without that easy scapegoat we may see a chance of real reform to our democratic process. I'm one of the few people in favour of PR in the HoC, I think it would allow the nation to realign itself properly and be able to vote in favour of policies they want instead of against parties they don't want. At the moment there is no party which is advocating Libertarian principles, it is a party that would appeal to me and around 10% of the population, enough to get 65 seats and major representation, but we are stuck voting Conservative because they imitate our desired policy of small government closest.
UKIP was fiscally libertarian, for cutting the top tax rate back to 40% and cutting overseas aid spending and more choice in healthcare under Farage even if socially pretty conservative. The Tories under Cameron are pretty libertarian, tax and spending cuts and gay marriage, apart from their support for the NHS, which is politically untouchable for the majority of voters. A true libertarian party would be fiscally conservative, socially liberal and pro immigration which has little appeal outside central London
Personally I think Westminster is a shining example for democracy that has been imitated across the globe which is the most sincere form of flattery.
Elements have been inspired by it, but the US is a federation, Australia is a federation, Germany is a federation, Canada is a federation.
Why in a mutlinational state like the UK do we have such a visceral aversion to federalism, to the extent that no word greater symbolises our objections to the EU?
Wow, big news from France, Jerome Kerviel (of SocGen fame) has won his employment tribunal. How messed up is French employment law if you can't sack someone who lost the bank €4bn or whatever it was.
I only had a tiny sum on, but the win is still my biggest ever by a long way. I may use some of that money to open a Sports Index (think those are the chaps) account and try my hand, with tiny stakes, at spread betting on F1.
Sporting Index.
Always assume the worst case scenario, and work out what your maximum losses will be, if you can lose that, then enjoy the spreads, if not, don't bet.
The secret of success is to pick the fights that you can win, and the fights that matter.
You think Europe is a lost cause and we should just walk away? It's not our fight?
Interesting in light of recent history.
No, I think trying to reform the EU is a lost cause and we should stand true to our values as a beacon of liberal democracy, a candle that shall never be put out.
What democratic reform are you seeking if we vote out? Not sure Westminster is a candle today.
Pesonally I'd be looking to strengthen the house of commons and separate it from the executive. But don't have time to go into it in detail
If Brexit is campaigning to win on the democratic argument, it would do well to advocate some specific democratic reform of Westminster.
As things stand, I personally have very little confidence in Westminster. If Leave argued that we would reform the Lords or some form of PR for a second chamber as part of withdrawal it would be compelling to me.
Personally I think Westminster is a shining example for democracy that has been imitated across the globe which is the most sincere form of flattery. But if you think it needs reforming then the chances of that happening are greatest with a Leave vote. If Westminster is our only major Parliament then all attention and talk of reform will be focused upon that, rather than the present pass the parcel of blaming Brussels and talking of reforming it rather than taking responsibility for ourselves.
Nowhere else has a Government and Opposition separated by two-swordslength.
Wow, big news from France, Jerome Kerviel (of SocGen fame) has won his employment tribunal. How messed up is French employment law if you can't sack someone who lost the bank €4bn or whatever it was.
The polls appear tied. We have been here before. The polls have form for consistently underestimating the unfashionable or 'nasty' option (Tory/No to Indy even No to AV) which cause has duly gone on to win. Few causes are as unfashionable as Leave (particularly the higher up the social scale you go). Shy Tories in 2015 have nothing on Shy Leavers (particularly if your party leader, the POTUS, Gov of BE and every expert and opinion former under the sun says you will bring on catastrophe if you do what you are planning on doing. Why bother admitting it? I think we are looking at a Leave win with a lead of 5%.
I disagree, UKIP voters are the most vocal in the referendum and 'shy' Tories tend to be moderate one nation types more attracted to Cameron than the party right. In indyref it was No who were more likely to be called traitors, in EU Ref it is Remainers and of course the tabloid press back Leave
UKIP was fiscally libertarian, for cutting the top tax rate back to 40% and cutting overseas aid spending and more choice in healthcare under Farage even if socially pretty conservative. The Tories under Cameron are pretty libertarian, tax and spending cuts and gay marriage, apart from their support for the NHS, which is politically untouchable for the majority of voters. A true libertarian party would be fiscally conservative, socially liberal and pro immigration which has little appeal outside central London
Which is why I said it wouldn't get more than 10% support, but that is still 60 seats under a PR system and it would mean proper representation for Libertarian views rather than the mish mash we have now of hoping that the Tories will be less authoritarian and more fiscally dry.
''Talk of Big Bang makes me feel old. I used to headhunt rain-makers back then - what a heady time the 80s were.''
My fave decade ever.
Mine too - what a hoot. All the excess, political strife and seismic changes. I've never worked anywhere since that was such fun - despite flogging ourselves.
For me the eighties were fun, but my best decade was the 1970s. A job I loved that paid me more than I could sensibly spend, single, ridiculously fit, no nanny state telling me my lifestyle was all wrong, cheap beer and fags, a share of a flat in Wigmore Street when I was on leave, ditto a Triumph Stag garaged under the Portman Hotel. By the cringe, life was so very good in those days. That summer of '76 - I had a long leave and, looking back, I am surprised I survived it. Then in 1978 I met Herself and became a grown-up - monogamous, sensible, relatively, sober.
@MSmithsonPB: A WILLIAM HILL customer walked into a Leeds betting shop this morning & staked £60,000 on REMAIN at 2/5. He'll win £24k if he's right
This punter is a gentleman in his mid- to late-twenties. He stands to lose £60,000 if Brexit wins ..... But, in that case, as is so often written in official reports, "lessons will be learnt".
Just saw on BBC News that Cameron is campaigning on"trust" today (makes a change from joining up with Labour, Greens and "others" to trash his own party and government I suppose)
Anyway riddle me this:
Why is Cameron campaigning on trust at the exact moment his personal ratings have collapsed and he's made himself toxic with millions of people?
UKIP was fiscally libertarian, for cutting the top tax rate back to 40% and cutting overseas aid spending and more choice in healthcare under Farage even if socially pretty conservative. The Tories under Cameron are pretty libertarian, tax and spending cuts and gay marriage, apart from their support for the NHS, which is politically untouchable for the majority of voters. A true libertarian party would be fiscally conservative, socially liberal and pro immigration which has little appeal outside central London
Which is why I said it wouldn't get more than 10% support, but that is still 60 seats under a PR system and it would mean proper representation for Libertarian views rather than the mish mash we have now of hoping that the Tories will be less authoritarian and more fiscally dry.
Unless we get PR it is unlikely and libertarians will have to switch between the Tories and UKIP. The U.S. has had a libertarian party for some years but the FPTP electoral system means it goes nowhere
The polls appear tied. We have been here before. The polls have form for consistently underestimating the unfashionable or 'nasty' option (Tory/No to Indy even No to AV) which cause has duly gone on to win. Few causes are as unfashionable as Leave (particularly the higher up the social scale you go). Shy Tories in 2015 have nothing on Shy Leavers (particularly if your party leader, the POTUS, Gov of BE and every expert and opinion former under the sun says you will bring on catastrophe if you do what you are planning on doing. Why bother admitting it? I think we are looking at a Leave win with a lead of 5%.
I disagree, UKIP voters are the most vocal in the referendum and 'shy' Tories tend to be moderate one nation types more attracted to Cameron than the party right. In indyref it was No who were more likely to be called traitors, in EU Ref it is Remainers and of course the tabloid press back Leave
Except Concanvasser talks about Shy Leavers, not Shy Tories.
My mother is a Shy Leaver - she has told me, but will likely tell almost no-one else. She would never tell a pollster.
And it's nowt to do with Corbyn et al - it's about how we define and see ourselves as a nation.
Xenophobic and isolationist
versus
Internationalist and cooperative
I know which side I am on
That's how I see the choice without iintending to insult anyone. It's the nub of a visceral campaign which makes conventional targeting quite difficult. You can break down those categories and there's probably a more acceptable word than xenophobic but it's a pretty fair summary
Migrants cannot be imprisoned just because they have entered a country illegally, Europe’s highest court has ruled, in a potential blow to British, Dutch and French police attempting to prevent people smuggling over the Channel.
France had no right to detain a Ghanaian woman who tried to sneak into Britain by travelling on the Channel Tunnel with someone else’s passport, the European Court of Justice ruled.
Doing so breached the EU Return Direct which say illegal migrants must be invited to go home voluntarily first, within a window of up to a month.
The polls appear tied. We have been here before. The polls have form for consistently underestimating the unfashionable or 'nasty' option (Tory/No to Indy even No to AV) which cause has duly gone on to win. Few causes are as unfashionable as Leave (particularly the higher up the social scale you go). Shy Tories in 2015 have nothing on Shy Leavers (particularly if your party leader, the POTUS, Gov of BE and every expert and opinion former under the sun says you will bring on catastrophe if you do what you are planning on doing. Why bother admitting it? I think we are looking at a Leave win with a lead of 5%.
I disagree, UKIP voters are the most vocal in the referendum and 'shy' Tories tend to be moderate one nation types more attracted to Cameron than the party right. In indyref it was No who were more likely to be called traitors, in EU Ref it is Remainers and of course the tabloid press back Leave
Except Concanvasser talks about Shy Leavers, not Shy Tories.
My mother is a Shy Leaver - she has told me, but will likely tell almost no-one else. She would never tell a pollster.
Shy Tories and shy Remainers will tend to overlap, you will get shy Leavers and shy Remainers but it is Leave who are most passionate in this campaign, Remain voters more reserved
Mr. Glenn, you're arguing it's democratic for us to have laws imposed upon us by foreign judges, politicians and bureaucrats.
I wouldn't use the word 'impose' but in the broadest sense, yes. I'm saying that pure national self-determination is a more imperfect version of democracy than what we currently have.
How bizarre, in what we currently have, strategic direction is given by a meeting of heads of state in a selection of smoke filled rooms and a selection of un minuted bilaterals. The implementation of this is handed to a self-important bureaucracy who isn't elected by anyone (and mostly lost elections to get their jobs), who design and initiate the actual laws. These laws then get to the directly elected bit, who have no power to actually initiate any laws irrespective of the number of them that support it, who then have limited powers to amend those laws, and whose amendments can in many cases be overridden by the aforementioned unelected bureaucrats. Even the elected members are elected using the party list system so you can't get rid of a particular member if they appear to be underperforming or not representing you appropriately. Very democratic.
The heads of state are, of course, all democratically elected.
Comments
Both Nissan and Toyota said the same about the Euro and then didn't.
Whether the EU survives the next 10 years is likely to depend on whether the Juncker or the Tusk mindset wins out.
https://fullfact.org/europe/did-auditors-sign-eu-budget/
You wouldn't see Cameron fighting a ground campaign with the public on this in a month of Sundays.
Asylum applications in May up 100 percent on last year https://t.co/qVwNJcxXLN
PA
#Breaking Fans travelling to Euro 2016 warned to be vigilant as busy areas may be "potential targets for terrorist attacks" - Foreign Office
BTW, where can I get a tinfoil hat like yours?
Oh wait, you were talking about the paid activists from the BSE campaign.
Not that it means much (ok, anything) but I see that he has Wirral close to a tie, which is what Denis MacShane tweeted earlier is actually happening. Ie, that would imply the neck-and-neck national polls are right.
Start with the basics.
Better to stand free as an example that other countries can copy if they so wish.
(and if you try to google a little bit you might pick up on the reference)
Few causes are as unfashionable as Leave (particularly the higher up the social scale you go). Shy Tories in 2015 have nothing on Shy Leavers (particularly if your party leader, the POTUS, Gov of BE and every expert and opinion former under the sun says you will bring on catastrophe if you do what you are planning on doing. Why bother admitting it?
I think we are looking at a Leave win with a lead of 5%.
As things start to go south for ISIS, Western foreign fighters are asking for help to go home
http://www.wsj.com/articles/islamic-state-members-from-the-west-seek-help-getting-home-1465244878
I'm not actually sure why I was making that point so that is a great time to sign off for the moment..
Huh? Shareholders, Charles, not bankers. They seek to maximise shareholder value.
Even @MaxPB gets the point (and it was a good one) that I thought you were making but it seems you are making a different, obtuse one.
Enough!!
(not of the EU, obvs)
As things stand, I personally have very little confidence in Westminster. If Leave argued that we would reform the Lords or some form of PR for a second chamber as part of withdrawal it would be compelling to me.
And Europhiles wonder why sceptics can be embittered?
Incidentally, the octo-lemur claim Leave will get 52%, but I'm not sure if they're taking the piss.
In particular Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson
Is this the same Toyota that said they'd pull out if we didn't join the Euro?
Zzzzz
But I guess you'd like Nick Clegg's article yesterday (which irritated me) that it is outrageous for members of the House of Lords to object to the EU on the grounds that it embeds a democratic deficit.
I thought it was tendentious rubbish
@robertshrimsley: @PCollinsTimes @VictoriaPeckham it is going to get worse. soon there will be 76m Turkish delights in our supermarkets
*Feels smug*
Mind you, maybe he's just won ten million pounds and this is a little flutter.
[I can also confirm it was not me who placed the bet].
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/527559/RTS_Q1_2016.pdf
Only Northern Ireland exports more to the EU compared with its exports to non EU countries.
(with apologies to Private Eye)
* Open and Internationalist Michael Gove points at Turkey, Albania, Serbia, Macedonia and Montenegro and screams 88 MILLION MIGRANTS!!!!
* Open and Internationalist Michael Gove screams MIGRANTS WILL KILL THE NHS AND SCHOOLS!!!
* Open and Internationalist Michael Gove screams 5 MILLION MIGRANTS! THAT'S AS BIG AS SCOTLAND!!!!
* Open and Internationalist Vote Leave campaign screams LOOK! TURKEY IS JOINING THE EU! AAARGH!
* Open and Internationalist Vote Leave campaign screams MIGRANTS! MIGRANTS! MIGRANTS!
NI exports to EU only 20% once the Republic is out. Wales only c.32%.
I only had a tiny sum on, but the win is still my biggest ever by a long way. I may use some of that money to open a Sports Index (think those are the chaps) account and try my hand, with tiny stakes, at spread betting on F1.
Why in a mutlinational state like the UK do we have such a visceral aversion to federalism, to the extent that no word greater symbolises our objections to the EU?
Always assume the worst case scenario, and work out what your maximum losses will be, if you can lose that, then enjoy the spreads, if not, don't bet.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
Anyway riddle me this:
Why is Cameron campaigning on trust at the exact moment his personal ratings have collapsed and he's made himself toxic with millions of people?
My mother is a Shy Leaver - she has told me, but will likely tell almost no-one else. She would never tell a pollster.
France had no right to detain a Ghanaian woman who tried to sneak into Britain by travelling on the Channel Tunnel with someone else’s passport, the European Court of Justice ruled.
Doing so breached the EU Return Direct which say illegal migrants must be invited to go home voluntarily first, within a window of up to a month.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/07/let-illegal-migrants-go-free-eu-court-orders-calais-police/