not a zinger, just promoting those theories is deeply illogical.
Quite why you invoke investment as your killing argument I have no idea, but I suppose skim-reading wiki for your responses does have its challenges. Especially as it's early.
And still you limp on.
Wikipedia? Do I even want to ask?
There is no illogicality. There never was. You can question the long term benefits. You can question the short term costs. What you can't do, is imply any incompatibility between the two. Not on a forum where adults are posting.
Remain has really ruined you. Do run along now.
Now, it's of course perfectly possible for, say, economic growth to be X for the first five years, and then Y for the following five.
Thank you.
We have at last managed to establish that this from you:
'They have not quite decided on which of the following they mean:
1) there will be pain but it is a price worth paying; or 2) the UK will thrive outside the EU.
and use both interchangeably, often in the same post.'
Was a risible brainfart. It's been a long process; a far briefer and less mealy mouthed mea culpa from you would have made you look less of a chump, but we got there in the end.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
TSE much as I'm broadly on your side ascribing such subtlety to the voters is something we on PB are over apt to do.
Is this another article from the "impartial" Financial Times which:- 1. Wanted us to join ERM and stay in it. 2. To join the Euro. 3. To REMAIN in the EU....
The FT is the Daily Express of the Remain campaign.
Unhinged support with blinkers on. But do not let awkward practicalities and public opinion get in the way of euro centralisation.
"The new currency is a triumph of political will over practical objections. Its physical launch is a testament to a generation of visionary leaders who pursued a dream, often against the grain of public opinion." FT 2nd January 2002
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Most voters don't believe they'd be worse off outside the EU.
But more think we'd be worse off by Leaving than Remaining.
Much like at GE 2015.
Whilst that is correct it is not by a huge amount and the voting coalition for Remain is totally different to that of GE 2015.
I don't know whether anyone missed this yesterday but well worth reading from William Hague. There now seems to be a consensus that whatever the benefits of Leave we are certain to take an economic hit. That varies from relatively minor to catastrophic. The median seems to be 'quite severe'.
In this context "quite severe" means less bad that a couple of middling years under the stewardship of G. Brown Esq, and yet we got from where he left us to the current booming economy in five years.
Hell we got from the bottom of the Sub Prime Crisis to the current economy in eight years, the suggestion that any fall out from Leave is going to go on for a decade is frankly for the birds.
My guess; for those who remember Thatcher's time when you couldn't walk past a doorway in Central London without passing someone living in a cardboard box I think they'll see it as progress and pocket the 50 quid
I remember when it was difficult to walk in parts of London during Labour's time in the 70s because of the dustmen strikes etc. Hard to notice anyone living in them as the piles were so high. At least by the end of the 80s we mainly had enough spare cash to give to a beggar, if we ever saw one. Before Thatcher we struggled to look after ourselves. Advertising certainly grew dramatically during the Thatcher years, better than the 1970s - or did you not notice Roger?
I'm like the Leavers "What did the Roman's ever do for us"
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Most voters don't believe they'd be worse off outside the EU.
A truth that is yet to sink into the heads of most REMAIN activists. The strategy seems to be "one more heave with another foreign head advising us".
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Now is (almost certainly) the wrong time to ask you this, but would you have reconsidered your vote had EEA-EFTA been the definitive alternative on the table?
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
Note that EU attempts to introduce a financial transaction tax are starting to crumble due to insufficient countries agreeing to it.
The EU was threatening to apply the transaction tax to euro transactions carried out in London even though the UK was not signed up to it (apart from stamp duty).
Other countries are realising that they would just be driving financial business away to New York or Singapore.
It doesn't have to be a transaction tax, which is still on the table incidentally. It could be regulatory oversight for example, which is something the ECB has been keen to keep within the Eurozone. The points are, no-one is going to consider any arguments from the UK about any of this once it's left the EU, and it's easier for traders to move everything to a place other than London if effectively you can't do some of the transactions there.
That could easily happen even if we Remain, the Eurozone is federalising are we are the square peg that doesn't fit in their round hole.
Possible but not nailed on, as with Brexit. There are few absolutes in this. Just as I don't expect immigration to fall much after Brexit, except for a recession related fall. The loss of London as Europe's dominant financial centre is a price of Brexit, but it isn't necessarily the reason against Brexiting
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
I heard him interviewed this morning, and it was not as bleak as Kuenssberg's tweet and you imply. It really depends on what sort of deal we want, and how straightforward we intend to be when negotiating. If we take what we are offered it will be relatively quick, if we ask for the moon on a stick we might never get a deal.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Most voters don't believe they'd be worse off outside the EU.
But more think we'd be worse off by Leaving than Remaining.
Much like at GE 2015.
Whilst that is correct it is not by a huge amount and the voting coalition for Remain is totally different to that of GE 2015.
My nose tells me this is going to be close.
37% think we'd be worse off economically; 22% think we'd be better off; 26% think it would make no difference. Both the latter groups break heavily for Leave.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
Note that EU attempts to introduce a financial transaction tax are starting to crumble due to insufficient countries agreeing to it.
The EU was threatening to apply the transaction tax to euro transactions carried out in London even though the UK was not signed up to it (apart from stamp duty).
Other countries are realising that they would just be driving financial business away to New York or Singapore.
It doesn't have to be a transaction tax, which is still on the table incidentally. It could be regulatory oversight for example, which is something the ECB has been keen to keep within the Eurozone. The points are, no-one is going to consider any arguments from the UK about any of this once it's left the EU, and it's easier for traders to move everything to a place other than London if effectively you can't do some of the transactions there.
That could easily happen even if we Remain, the Eurozone is federalising are we are the square peg that doesn't fit in their round hole.
Possible but not nailed on, as with Brexit. There are few absolutes in this. Just as I don't expect immigration to fall much after Brexit, except for a recession related fall. The loss of London as Europe's dominant financial centre is a price of Brexit, but it isn't necessarily the reason against Brexiting
We were told London would lose its dominant position when we didn't enter the Euro, and when we left the ERM, why should we believe that this time is different and it will really happen ?
I find it equally so that people should have so little confidence in the UK as an independent sovereign nation that they think it couldn't possibly hold its own in the EU and should instead run away screaming.
That is a curious thing.
The message from Brexit is that the patriotic British thing to do is run away "like a little girl" (NewsSense™)
It's pathetic
The message is that we govern ourselves, and enjoy friendly relations with foreign countries.
A prospect which some people find horrifying.
Britain was at its best when we at war with most foreign countries.
You think we got our Empire by being nice to foreign countries?
Forget Canada or Albania, there is always the North Korea model. They have absolute sovereignty. Ain't no one telling North Korea what type of kettles to build.
I find it equally so that people should have so little confidence in the UK as an independent sovereign nation that they think it couldn't possibly hold its own in the EU and should instead run away screaming.
That is a curious thing.
The message from Brexit is that the patriotic British thing to do is run away "like a little girl" (NewsSense™)
It's pathetic
The message is that we govern ourselves, and enjoy friendly relations with foreign countries.
A prospect which some people find horrifying.
Britain was at its best when we at war with most foreign countries.
You think we got our Empire by being nice to foreign countries?
Thanks for the kind words all.
Britain was at its best when it was at war with tyrants who would rob Europe of its democratic freedoms.
Things will carry on as is now in the meantime - no foreign govt is going to be daft enough to unilaterally change a deal.
The British have some of the most comprehensive deals imaginable with a range of European countries right now. No British government is going to be daft enough to unilaterally tear them up, are they?
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Reason number 124 "Why LEAVE will lose"?
If.IF. IF
You really should be in command of the English language if you intend on posting on an English language website.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Reason number 124 "Why LEAVE will lose"?
It's a bizarre premise, I doubt more than 5% of voters know what the EEA is, and probably even less know about EFTA, the idea that is would have any effect in the referendum at all is a little unlikely to put in mildly.
Is this another article from the "impartial" Financial Times which:- 1. Wanted us to join ERM and stay in it. 2. To join the Euro. 3. To REMAIN in the EU....
The FT is the Daily Express of the Remain campaign.
Unhinged support with blinkers on. But do not let awkward practicalities and public opinion get in the way of euro centralisation.
"The new currency is a triumph of political will over practical objections. Its physical launch is a testament to a generation of visionary leaders who pursued a dream, often against the grain of public opinion." FT 2nd January 2002
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
Note that EU attempts to introduce a financial transaction tax are starting to crumble due to insufficient countries agreeing to it.
The EU was threatening to apply the transaction tax to euro transactions carried out in London even though the UK was not signed up to it (apart from stamp duty).
Other countries are realising that they would just be driving financial business away to New York or Singapore.
It doesn't have to be a transaction tax, which is still on the table incidentally. It could be regulatory oversight for example, which is something the ECB has been keen to keep within the Eurozone. The points are, no-one is going to consider any arguments from the UK about any of this once it's left the EU, and it's easier for traders to move everything to a place other than London if effectively you can't do some of the transactions there.
That could easily happen even if we Remain, the Eurozone is federalising are we are the square peg that doesn't fit in their round hole.
Possible but not nailed on, as with Brexit. There are few absolutes in this. Just as I don't expect immigration to fall much after Brexit, except for a recession related fall. The loss of London as Europe's dominant financial centre is a price of Brexit, but it isn't necessarily the reason against Brexiting
Is this the same loss of dominance that London was said to be going to suffer when we did not join the Euro 14+ years ago or is this a different type of dominance such as some S&M relationship with a dominatrix?
not a zinger, just promoting those theories is deeply illogical.
Quite why you invoke investment as your killing argument I have no idea, but I suppose skim-reading wiki for your responses does have its challenges. Especially as it's early.
And still you limp on.
Wikipedia? Do I even want to ask?
There is no illogicality. There never was. You can question the long term benefits. You can question the short term costs. What you can't do, is imply any incompatibility between the two. Not on a forum where adults are posting.
Remain has really ruined you. Do run along now.
Now, it's of course perfectly possible for, say, economic growth to be X for the first five years, and then Y for the following five.
Thank you.
We have at last managed to establish that this from you:
'They have not quite decided on which of the following they mean:
1) there will be pain but it is a price worth paying; or 2) the UK will thrive outside the EU.
and use both interchangeably, often in the same post.'
Was a risible brainfart. It's been a long process; a far briefer and less mealy mouthed mea culpa from you would have made you look less of a chump, but we got there in the end.
many apologies. I expect most people on PB to understand things without my having to spell it out for them line by line. Or. line. by. line. as you might put it.
Now that I know that for you I will have to put my workings in the margin, I will amend my future posts to you.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Reason number 124 "Why LEAVE will lose"?
If.IF. IF
You really should be in command of the English language if you intend on posting on English language website.
Is this another article from the "impartial" Financial Times which:- 1. Wanted us to join ERM and stay in it. 2. To join the Euro. 3. To REMAIN in the EU....
The FT is the Daily Express of the Remain campaign.
Unhinged support with blinkers on. But do not let awkward practicalities and public opinion get in the way of euro centralisation.
"The new currency is a triumph of political will over practical objections. Its physical launch is a testament to a generation of visionary leaders who pursued a dream, often against the grain of public opinion." FT 2nd January 2002
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Reason number 124 "Why LEAVE will lose"?
If.IF. IF
You really should be in command of the English language if you intend on posting on English language website.
Wiv a little smart phone and tiny keys and big mits it aint easy guv....
I find it equally so that people should have so little confidence in the UK as an independent sovereign nation that they think it couldn't possibly hold its own in the EU and should instead run away screaming.
That is a curious thing.
The message from Brexit is that the patriotic British thing to do is run away "like a little girl" (NewsSense™)
It's pathetic
The message is that we govern ourselves, and enjoy friendly relations with foreign countries.
A prospect which some people find horrifying.
Britain was at its best when we at war with most foreign countries.
You think we got our Empire by being nice to foreign countries?
Forget Canada or Albania, there is always the North Korea model. They have absolute sovereignty. Ain't no one telling North Korea what type of kettles to build.
No one tells New Zealand or Australia or Japan what type of kettles to build either, I am not sure what your point is.
Is this another article from the "impartial" Financial Times which:- 1. Wanted us to join ERM and stay in it. 2. To join the Euro. 3. To REMAIN in the EU....
The FT is the Daily Express of the Remain campaign.
Unhinged support with blinkers on. But do not let awkward practicalities and public opinion get in the way of euro centralisation.
"The new currency is a triumph of political will over practical objections. Its physical launch is a testament to a generation of visionary leaders who pursued a dream, often against the grain of public opinion." FT 2nd January 2002
Things will carry on as is now in the meantime - no foreign govt is going to be daft enough to unilaterally change a deal.
The British have some of the most comprehensive deals imaginable with a range of European countries right now. No British government is going to be daft enough to unilaterally tear them up, are they?
No - they wont tear them up - they will continue as now. If anything needs to change it will involve a negotiation - but in the meantime we will carry on buying French cheese and wine with no tariffs.
On Topic. If the price of Brexit is Corbyn as PM it is a price worth paying. He can be booted out five years later if he fails. I will never get another chance to boot out the European Union in my lifetime however badly they fail.
You're forgetting that if we leave, it will not be the final word on the British constitution. There are many long-standing issues kicked into the long grass that will become more pressing post-Brexit. Would you be happy to see Corbyn in the driving seat while those issues are decided?
Happier than Cameron Merker and Juncker in the driving seat
I find it equally so that people should have so little confidence in the UK as an independent sovereign nation that they think it couldn't possibly hold its own in the EU and should instead run away screaming.
That is a curious thing.
The message from Brexit is that the patriotic British thing to do is run away "like a little girl" (NewsSense™)
It's pathetic
The message is that we govern ourselves, and enjoy friendly relations with foreign countries.
A prospect which some people find horrifying.
Britain was at its best when we at war with most foreign countries.
You think we got our Empire by being nice to foreign countries?
Thanks for the kind words all.
Britain was at its best when it was at war with tyrants who would rob Europe of its democratic freedoms.
We were at our best when we formed a pan-European alliance to give the French a damn good hiding at Waterloo.
That's the model Dave should have followed for his renegotiation, that and making the French honouring the Treaty of Troyes.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Reason number 124 "Why LEAVE will lose"?
It's a bizarre premise, I doubt more than 5% of voters know what the EEA is, and probably even less know about EFTA, the idea that is would have any effect in the referendum at all is a little unlikely to put in mildly.
''Is this the same loss of dominance that London was said to be going to suffer when we did not join the Euro 14+ years ago or is this a different type of dominance such as some S&M relationship with a dominatrix?''
In the 1980s and 1990s in the City you couldn;t move for gloating French and German bankers predicting the City was losing to Frankfurt and Paris. And 'experts' and of course journalists.
I didn;t believe them then - I don;t believe them now.
I find it equally so that people should have so little confidence in the UK as an independent sovereign nation that they think it couldn't possibly hold its own in the EU and should instead run away screaming.
That is a curious thing.
The message from Brexit is that the patriotic British thing to do is run away "like a little girl" (NewsSense™)
It's pathetic
The message is that we govern ourselves, and enjoy friendly relations with foreign countries.
A prospect which some people find horrifying.
Britain was at its best when we at war with most foreign countries.
You think we got our Empire by being nice to foreign countries?
Forget Canada or Albania, there is always the North Korea model. They have absolute sovereignty. Ain't no one telling North Korea what type of kettles to build.
No one tells New Zealand or Australia or Japan what type of kettles to build either, I am not sure what your point is.
It's surprising how many countries are able to thrive without being part of the EU.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Now is (almost certainly) the wrong time to ask you this, but would you have reconsidered your vote had EEA-EFTA been the definitive alternative on the table?
Please be honest.
In my case, No. I don't think the EEA will work for Britain. It might be something to sign up to in the absence of anything else, but the problems with it will quickly come apparent.
People rightly pick up on a lack of unqualified enthusiasm for the EU, even from supporters. That's because it is at best a half solution and we have to argue that a half solution is better than no solution at all. The EEA is half of a half solution. If the EU is half-baked; the EEA is quarter-baked.
It works for Norway because it is a wealthy and small country happy to outsource its external relations to another body, and which has the self-discipline to stick to the rules
Euro area Q1 GDP: +0.6% EU Q1 GDP: +0.5% UK Q1 GDP: +0.4%
#justsaying
Sack the Chancellor.
Do we have one ? I saw some sneering prat running around putting the elbow on waving Tory MPs and campaigning for Remain, I didn't realise he was meant to be running the economy as well!
@IsabelOakeshott: Vote Leave will be nervous re. Farage's ITV gig tonight. Critics will be poised to cry racism/bigotry.He mustn't give them ANY ammunition
Maybe Shadsy can put up a Bingo market or a spread? How many racist comments will Farage make tonight?
There is far less urgency to conclude a deal that would bring about benefits than to conclude one where the absence of a deal would result in serious risks to both sides. If the vote is Leave, then Britain will withdraw within a relatively short time and that alone upsets the status quo sufficiently to need resolving with some new arrangement ready for when it happens.
Euro area Q1 GDP: +0.6% EU Q1 GDP: +0.5% UK Q1 GDP: +0.4%
#justsaying
Sack the Chancellor.
Do we have one ? I saw some sneering prat running around putting the elbow on waving Tory MPs and campaigning for Remain, I didn't realise he was meant to be running the economy as well!
I've got the popcorn in for tomorrow night. It's going to be bare knuckle backstreet talking.
Euro area Q1 GDP: +0.6% EU Q1 GDP: +0.5% UK Q1 GDP: +0.4%
#justsaying
THose numbers hide a multitude of sins the UK is being lined up to pay for. We can only imagine what the number would be if Germany had a currency that in some way matched its economic performance.
But it doesn't and so the gigantic imbalances grow ever more gigantic.
If Brexit happens, we're opening an office in Paris, because it is easier to get from Manchester than Dublin.
So Brexit means I have to spend more time in France.
Vote Remain, so I don't have to spend more time in France. Please.
Seems a little precipitous, if HM Government, of which you are a well known cheerleader, decides in its wisdom to go for the EEA/EFTA approach, you can stay in Manchester... and since the government would fall a month or two later and Corbyn would sign us up for the Euro, you would have no further worries on that front
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
Note that EU attempts to introduce a financial transaction tax are starting to crumble due to insufficient countries agreeing to it.
The EU was threatening to apply the transaction tax to euro transactions carried out in London even though the UK was not signed up to it (apart from stamp duty).
Other countries are realising that they would just be driving financial business away to New York or Singapore.
It doesn't have to be a transaction tax, which is still on the table incidentally. It could be regulatory oversight for example, which is something the ECB has been keen to keep within the Eurozone. The points are, no-one is going to consider any arguments from the UK about any of this once it's left the EU, and it's easier for traders to move everything to a place other than London if effectively you can't do some of the transactions there.
That could easily happen even if we Remain, the Eurozone is federalising are we are the square peg that doesn't fit in their round hole.
Possible but not nailed on, as with Brexit. There are few absolutes in this. Just as I don't expect immigration to fall much after Brexit, except for a recession related fall. The loss of London as Europe's dominant financial centre is a price of Brexit, but it isn't necessarily the reason against Brexiting
We were told London would lose its dominant position when we didn't enter the Euro, and when we left the ERM, why should we believe that this time is different and it will really happen ?
I don't know what was said at the time of the ERM and the Euro project. Maybe it didn't make sense. I only know what is being said and acted on now. One huge and obvious difference is that we were still in the EU with its collective decision making and we won't be this time.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Hold on. Why? Why does Remain feel the need to advertise so heavily to banks, brokers and other City institutions and their workers? Surely they are supposed to be firmly onside, given the financial tsunami that will follow Brexit; not to mention the loss of their own business to Paris or Frankfurt.
Is this a betting hint, or is it just that Remain's advertising is booked by a complete lemon?
You should do a thread on that, PB Leaver denialists will get all abusive and say they know better than the head of the WTO.
Oh wait you did do a thread on that.
He's an "expert" and thus can be safely ignored.
On a different topic, anyone here know how to remove an appendix?
If the last ten years have not taught you the difference between a genuine expert such as a qualified doctor, and an economist, well, that's a bit lame.
It's just another "Don;t leave because, er, well we can;t quite be sure exactly what will happen" argument.
Meh. Life will go on and everyone will make the best of the new circumstances. business, for example, will trade.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore
Now
In my case, No. I don't think the EEA will work for Britain. It might be something to sign up to in the absence of anything else, but the problems with it will quickly come apparent.
People rightly pick up on a lack of unqualified enthusiasm for the EU, even from supporters. That's because it is at best a half solution and we have to argue that a half solution is better than no solution at all. The EEA is half of a half solution. If the EU is half-baked; the EEA is quarter-baked.
It works for Norway because it is a wealthy and small country happy to outsource its external relations to another body, and which has the self-discipline to stick to the rules
Maybe I'm in a small minority here (and am prepared to lose this fight) but, in my view, the only way the UK can exercise true positive leadership in Europe is to leave the EU and lead the development of a new European institutional framework for countries that wish to be part of a free trade area, and freely collaborate and cooperate with each other on a pan-European basis, but remain self-governing liberal democracies.
A dream?
Yes, perhaps. But most big changes start off as dreams.
Is this another article from the "impartial" Financial Times which:- 1. Wanted us to join ERM and stay in it. 2. To join the Euro. 3. To REMAIN in the EU....
The FT is the Daily Express of the Remain campaign.
Unhinged support with blinkers on. But do not let awkward practicalities and public opinion get in the way of euro centralisation.
"The new currency is a triumph of political will over practical objections. Its physical launch is a testament to a generation of visionary leaders who pursued a dream, often against the grain of public opinion." FT 2nd January 2002
Euro area Q1 GDP: +0.6% EU Q1 GDP: +0.5% UK Q1 GDP: +0.4%
#justsaying
Sack the Chancellor.
Do we have one ? I saw some sneering prat running around putting the elbow on waving Tory MPs and campaigning for Remain, I didn't realise he was meant to be running the economy as well!
I've got the popcorn in for tomorrow night. It's going to be bare knuckle backstreet talking.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Now is (almost certainly) the wrong time to ask you this, but would you have reconsidered your vote had EEA-EFTA been the definitive alternative on the table?
Please be honest.
In my case, No. I don't think the EEA will work for Britain. It might be something to sign up to in the absence of anything else, but the problems with it will quickly come apparent.
People rightly pick up on a lack of unqualified enthusiasm for the EU, even from supporters. That's because it is at best a half solution and we have to argue that a half solution is better than no solution at all. The EEA is half of a half solution. If the EU is half-baked; the EEA is quarter-baked.
It works for Norway because it is a wealthy and small country happy to outsource its external relations to another body, and which has the self-discipline to stick to the rules
What if that was only a transitory stage to reach a fully independent UK?
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Most voters don't believe they'd be worse off outside the EU.
But more think we'd be worse off by Leaving than Remaining.
Much like at GE 2015.
Whilst that is correct it is not by a huge amount and the voting coalition for Remain is totally different to that of GE 2015.
My nose tells me this is going to be close.
37% think we'd be worse off economically; 22% think we'd be better off; 26% think it would make no difference. Both the latter groups break heavily for Leave.
And that's the best news for Leave. They only have to convince people there will be no detriment, while Remain have to show things will get worse. Which possibly explains the ever more demented Cassandras in that group.
(Although I do think people are underestimating the upheaval of Brexit. It's going to be chaotic - initially mostly political, but that will interact with the economics in a rather nasty way)
There is far less urgency to conclude a deal that would bring about benefits than to conclude one where the absence of a deal would result in serious risks to both sides. If the vote is Leave, then Britain will withdraw within a relatively short time and that alone upsets the status quo sufficiently to need resolving with some new arrangement ready for when it happens.
Yes.
On a bi-lateral level most of the bigger nations in Europe do very well out of the existing arrangement allowing them access to our market.
One or two of the smaller nations are heavily intertwined with our economy or making a trade surplus that their very hard pressed nations can ill afford to jeopardise.
I have always expected that a Leave vote would be followed by a period of reflection, consideration and preparation that would probably take us to the start of 2017.
tl;dr the closer it is in Sunderland, the better it is for Remain.
No nation which thought well of politicians would invent the overnight count.
The bottom line is that we'll learn an awful lot from the results — one way or another. I will be doing something on the night, though precisely what is still to be decided. If you just want to close out your bets profitably, you should probably go to sleep and wake up around 4am. I'll see you then…
In my case, No. I don't think the EEA will work for Britain. It might be something to sign up to in the absence of anything else, but the problems with it will quickly come apparent.
People rightly pick up on a lack of unqualified enthusiasm for the EU, even from supporters. That's because it is at best a half solution and we have to argue that a half solution is better than no solution at all. The EEA is half of a half solution. If the EU is half-baked; the EEA is quarter-baked.
It works for Norway because it is a wealthy and small country happy to outsource its external relations to another body, and which has the self-discipline to stick to the rules
Maybe I'm in a small minority here (and am prepared to lose this fight) but, in my view, the only way the UK can exercise true positive leadership in Europe is to leave the EU and lead the development of a new European institutional framework for countries that wish to be part of a free trade area, and freely collaborate and cooperate with each other on a pan-European basis, but remain self-governing liberal democracies.
A dream?
Yes, perhaps. But most big changes start off as dreams.
This is one we can shape.
Having decided to leave, if we do decide to leave, this would be worth working for. There is zero demand for it at the moment, but that could change.
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore
Now
In my case, No. I don't think the EEA will work for Britain. It might be something to sign up to in the absence of anything else, but the problems with it will quickly come apparent.
People rightly pick up on a lack of unqualified enthusiasm for the EU, even from supporters. That's because it is at best a half solution and we have to argue that a half solution is better than no solution at all. The EEA is half of a half solution. If the EU is half-baked; the EEA is quarter-baked.
It works for Norway because it is a wealthy and small country happy to outsource its external relations to another body, and which has the self-discipline to stick to the rules
Maybe I'm in a small minority here (and am prepared to lose this fight) but, in my view, the only way the UK can exercise true positive leadership in Europe is to leave the EU and lead the development of a new European institutional framework for countries that wish to be part of a free trade area, and freely collaborate and cooperate with each other on a pan-European basis, but remain self-governing liberal democracies.
A dream?
Yes, perhaps. But most big changes start off as dreams.
This is one we can shape.
Isn't that what we tried to do with EFTA, which failed when the EEC was new and only had six members?
It may be that some new European institutional will be needed but it can't exist while the EU does. To try to create one now will produce virtually no new members and in the event that some do defect to it from the EU, it would be blamed for breaking up the EU. Far better to wait to see how the effect of a Brexit impacts on the European Union and then work with whatever's there afterwards.
While predictions of imminent collapse have been frequent - and frequently wrong - people like Juncker have no idea of the scale of the risks their attitudes are running (though Tusk does seem to have his head on). The populist and Eurosceptic right are on the march across Europe and unless the EU reacts effectively to that, the house will be pulled down from the inside. A Brexit would still no doubt be blamed but less so than if we were actively canvassing for countries to leave in order to join our new club.
''Hold on. Why? Why does Remain feel the need to advertise so heavily to banks, brokers and other City institutions and their workers? ''
The reason is Remain MUST hold the City. If it were to emerge the City thought itself better outside the EU, it would destroy Remain's economic case utterly. It would atomise it.
Remain must try to keep the City onside at all costs.
In unrelated news, there are many rumours a remastered Skyrim may be released for Xbox One/PS4, to be announced in the next week or so. Be interesting to see whether mods are enabled (which has happened for Fallout 4 [XBox One already, PS4 to happen this month]).
In my case, No. I don't think the EEA will work for Britain. It might be something to sign up to in the absence of anything else, but the problems with it will quickly come apparent.
People rightly pick up on a lack of unqualified enthusiasm for the EU, even from supporters. That's because it is at best a half solution and we have to argue that a half solution is better than no solution at all. The EEA is half of a half solution. If the EU is half-baked; the EEA is quarter-baked.
It works for Norway because it is a wealthy and small country happy to outsource its external relations to another body, and which has the self-discipline to stick to the rules
What if that was only a transitory stage to reach a fully independent UK?
On balance, I think we are better off in the EU. If the EEA is a transitory phase it will be because people will realise that the issues they had with the EU apply even more so to the EEA. It will be an acrimonious collapse. It would be better if I am wrong and it turns out the EEA is just the thing for us!
not a zinger, just promoting those theories is deeply illogical.
Quite why you invoke investment as your killing argument I have no idea, but I suppose skim-reading wiki for your responses does have its challenges. Especially as it's early.
And still you limp on.
Wikipedia? Do I even want to ask?
There is no illogicality. There never was. You can question the long term benefits. You can question the short term costs. What you can't do, is imply any incompatibility between the two. Not on a forum where adults are posting.
Remain has really ruined you. Do run along now.
Now, it's of course perfectly possible for, say, economic growth to be X for the first five years, and then Y for the following five.
Thank you.
We have at last managed to establish that this from you:
'They have not quite decided on which of the following they mean:
1) there will be pain but it is a price worth paying; or 2) the UK will thrive outside the EU.
and use both interchangeably, often in the same post.'
Was a risible brainfart. It's been a long process; a far briefer and less mealy mouthed mea culpa from you would have made you look less of a chump, but we got there in the end.
many apologies. I expect most people on PB to understand things without my having to spell it out for them line by line. Or. line. by. line. as you might put it.
Now that I know that for you I will have to put my workings in the margin, I will amend my future posts to you.
''Hold on. Why? Why does Remain feel the need to advertise so heavily to banks, brokers and other City institutions and their workers? ''
The reason is Remain MUST hold the City. If it were to emerge the City thought itself better outside the EU, it would destroy Remain's economic case utterly. It would atomise it.
Remain must try to keep the City onside at all costs.
Generally the investment banks tend towards IN while the asset managers towards OUT (seeing their centre of gravity as closer/moving towards the US).
In my case, No. I don't think the EEA will work for Britain. It might be something to sign up to in the absence of anything else, but the problems with it will quickly come apparent.
People rightly pick up on a lack of unqualified enthusiasm for the EU, even from supporters. That's because it is at best a half solution and we have to argue that a half solution is better than no solution at all. The EEA is half of a half solution. If the EU is half-baked; the EEA is quarter-baked.
It works for Norway because it is a wealthy and small country happy to outsource its external relations to another body, and which has the self-discipline to stick to the rules
Maybe I'm in a small minority here (and am prepared to lose this fight) but, in my view, the only way the UK can exercise true positive leadership in Europe is to leave the EU and lead the development of a new European institutional framework for countries that wish to be part of a free trade area, and freely collaborate and cooperate with each other on a pan-European basis, but remain self-governing liberal democracies.
A dream?
Yes, perhaps. But most big changes start off as dreams.
This is one we can shape.
Having decided to leave, if we do decide to leave, this would be worth working for. There is zero demand for it at the moment, but that could change.
Wasn't that effectively what EFTA used to be - back when it was the Inner 6 and outer 7? That would definitely be the most ideal Leave scenario, but where would free movement come into it?
Yougov detail shows that those who perceive they will be worst off and that Brexit is bad for the jobs and economy are young, high earning graduates, and they also think it will be bad for pensions, presumably their own.
The haves and the have-nots analysis seems to be spot on.
You appear perfectly happy to bet the farm on Greece not imploding, Italy not imploding, FN not being elected in France, Merkel not losing her majority, Grillo not winning in Italy, and any number of other EU imponderables, or is that different ?
The Brexit argument appears to be we can make those things MORE likely if we leave.
Why would you want to vote for that?
@hugorifkind: Non-fighty q for Brexiters. Does it bother you that rest of EU may suffer if we leave? Or is that their problem? Or don't you think it will?
Of course the rest of the EU will suffer; they will have to find £8bn to plug a hole in their budget.
Yougov detail shows that those who perceive they will be worst off and that Brexit is bad for the jobs and economy are young, high earning graduates, and they also think it will be bad for pensions, presumably their own.
The haves and the have-nots analysis seems to be spot on.
If there’s a sharp drop in the markets it won’t be good for my pension. OK this year perhaps but what of the future?
Generally the investment banks tend towards IN while the asset managers towards OUT (seeing their centre of gravity as closer/moving towards the US).
Hardly a surprise. The big investment banks love regulation because it erects massive barriers to entry.
Those are only set to get bigger.
Huh? Massive barriers to entry to whom? Plucky little investment banks?
Of course the amount of regulation that we are seeing from Europe is staggering, and expensive, and the larger the institution the easier it would be to comply. But that is nothing to do with being in or out of the EU.
Their views on regulations are the same as everyone else's but they believe that the ease of doing business throughout Europe with one set of rules simplifies things greatly.
Generally the investment banks tend towards IN while the asset managers towards OUT (seeing their centre of gravity as closer/moving towards the US).
Hardly a surprise. The big investment banks love regulation because it erects massive barriers to entry.
Those are only set to get bigger.
Huh? Massive barriers to entry to whom? Plucky little investment banks?
Of course the amount of regulation that we are seeing from Europe is staggering, and expensive, and the larger the institution the easier it would be to comply. But that is nothing to do with being in or out of the EU.
Their views on regulations are the same as everyone else's but they believe that the ease of doing business throughout Europe with one set of rules simplifies things greatly.
The cost of compliance for smaller funds is much higher a proportion of their income than it is for the BBs. Smaller and medium sized funds as well as hedge funds tend towards leave, the bigger banks and US banks tend towards remain, loads don't seem to care though as they don't think it will make any difference.
In my case, No. I don't think the EEA will work for Britain. It might be something to sign up to in the absence of anything else, but the problems with it will quickly come apparent.
People rightly pick up on a lack of unqualified enthusiasm for the EU, even from supporters. That's because it is at best a half solution and we have to argue that a half solution is better than no solution at all. The EEA is half of a half solution. If the EU is half-baked; the EEA is quarter-baked.
It works for Norway because it is a wealthy and small country happy to outsource its external relations to another body, and which has the self-discipline to stick to the rules
Maybe I'm in a small minority here (and am prepared to lose this fight) but, in my view, the only way the UK can exercise true positive leadership in Europe is to leave the EU and lead the development of a new European institutional framework for countries that wish to be part of a free trade area, and freely collaborate and cooperate with each other on a pan-European basis, but remain self-governing liberal democracies.
A dream?
Yes, perhaps. But most big changes start off as dreams.
This is one we can shape.
Having decided to leave, if we do decide to leave, this would be worth working for. There is zero demand for it at the moment, but that could change.
Wasn't that effectively what EFTA used to be - back when it was the Inner 6 and outer 7? That would definitely be the most ideal Leave scenario, but where would free movement come into it?
Flexible movement of workers on a temporary basis (with practical limits) but not an unadulterated right, which is just dogma.
As it was always supposed to be and as it should be.
Remain back up to 74% after being down to circa 69% for the last 36 hours.
A good poll due for Remain?
Over £1 million matched in the last 24hrs.
Possibly it's not so much expectation of a good poll for Remain as the absence of a further Leave surge in yesterday's polls. Punters seem to be sceptical about Leave, perhaps unduly.
Yougov detail shows that those who perceive they will be worst off and that Brexit is bad for the jobs and economy are young, high earning graduates, and they also think it will be bad for pensions, presumably their own.
The haves and the have-nots analysis seems to be spot on.
How fascinating - I do wish you'd pen a thread. Your clarity on numbers is a favourite of mine.
Remain back up to 74% after being down to circa 69% for the last 36 hours.
A good poll due for Remain?
Over £1 million matched in the last 24hrs.
Possibly it's not so much expectation of a good poll for Remain as the absence of a further Leave surge in yesterday's polls. Punters seem to be sceptical about Leave, perhaps unduly.
To put the £20bn to £40bn in context, Osborne's over-borrowing has now reached £180bn. By the end of 2016 it will be approaching £240bn.
Britain's annual GDP is also approximately £60bn lower than Osborne predicted it would be.
Very good point.
Doesn't that rather put the membership fee of £8 billion into context?
It would do, but its Remain that keeps on trying to make this an economic argument without understanding that for a substantial group of voters economics is not the be all and end all.
Comments
We have at last managed to establish that this from you:
'They have not quite decided on which of the following they mean:
1) there will be pain but it is a price worth paying; or
2) the UK will thrive outside the EU.
and use both interchangeably, often in the same post.'
Was a risible brainfart. It's been a long process; a far briefer and less mealy mouthed mea culpa from you would have made you look less of a chump, but we got there in the end.
"The new currency is a triumph of political will over practical objections. Its physical launch is a testament to a generation of visionary leaders who pursued a dream, often against the grain of public opinion." FT 2nd January 2002
My nose tells me this is going to be close.
The EU is on year seven of negotiations with Canada and our deal is being blocked by our EU partners.
https://next.ft.com/content/064dc2ee-2665-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89
Please be honest.
I don't understand Brexiteers who find that horrific.
My nextdoor neighbour took mine out when I was a child in the 1950s. He was Indian.
Britain was at its best when it was at war with tyrants who would rob Europe of its democratic freedoms.
Talk to the Chancellor of the Exchequer: he's an expert.
You really should be in command of the English language if you intend on posting on an English language website.
Now that I know that for you I will have to put my workings in the margin, I will amend my future posts to you.
Euro area Q1 GDP: +0.6%
EU Q1 GDP: +0.5%
UK Q1 GDP: +0.4%
#justsaying
That's the model Dave should have followed for his renegotiation, that and making the French honouring the Treaty of Troyes.
(smiley)
In the 1980s and 1990s in the City you couldn;t move for gloating French and German bankers predicting the City was losing to Frankfurt and Paris. And 'experts' and of course journalists.
I didn;t believe them then - I don;t believe them now.
Of course exports are not important to Japan.
Oh, wait...
People rightly pick up on a lack of unqualified enthusiasm for the EU, even from supporters. That's because it is at best a half solution and we have to argue that a half solution is better than no solution at all. The EEA is half of a half solution. If the EU is half-baked; the EEA is quarter-baked.
It works for Norway because it is a wealthy and small country happy to outsource its external relations to another body, and which has the self-discipline to stick to the rules
Sports Direct getting a kicking from the select committee on BBC Parly.
Wait - doesn't the EU protect us from dreadful employment practices ?
Maybe Shadsy can put up a Bingo market or a spread? How many racist comments will Farage make tonight?
If Brexit happens, we're opening an office in Paris, because it is easier to get from Manchester than Dublin.
So Brexit means I have to spend more time in France.
Vote Remain, so I don't have to spend more time in France. Please.
But it doesn't and so the gigantic imbalances grow ever more gigantic.
IF we stay in, the UK will pay.
https://twitter.com/GawainTowler/status/740110289719468032
and this:
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/740119706544295936
That Leave are about to gatecrash the Prime Minister's press conference?
Is this a betting hint, or is it just that Remain's advertising is booked by a complete lemon?
How the EU is set to bury the City in a mountain of regulation after the Brexit vote.
As I have posted here on many occasions - if we leave, we might save something.
If we stay we will watch powerless as the EU entombs our one world class industry, turning us into a supplicant state.
It's just another "Don;t leave because, er, well we can;t quite be sure exactly what will happen" argument.
Meh. Life will go on and everyone will make the best of the new circumstances. business, for example, will trade.
A dream?
Yes, perhaps. But most big changes start off as dreams.
This is one we can shape.
(Although I do think people are underestimating the upheaval of Brexit. It's going to be chaotic - initially mostly political, but that will interact with the economics in a rather nasty way)
On a bi-lateral level most of the bigger nations in Europe do very well out of the existing arrangement allowing them access to our market.
One or two of the smaller nations are heavily intertwined with our economy or making a trade surplus that their very hard pressed nations can ill afford to jeopardise.
I have always expected that a Leave vote would be followed by a period of reflection, consideration and preparation that would probably take us to the start of 2017.
The EU referendum: what to expect on the night
tl;dr the closer it is in Sunderland, the better it is for Remain.
No nation which thought well of politicians would invent the overnight count.
The bottom line is that we'll learn an awful lot from the results — one way or another. I will be doing something on the night, though precisely what is still to be decided. If you just want to close out your bets profitably, you should probably go to sleep and wake up around 4am. I'll see you then…
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/the-eu-referendum-what-to-expect-on-the-night-521792dd3eef#.zfe4ge4ix
It may be that some new European institutional will be needed but it can't exist while the EU does. To try to create one now will produce virtually no new members and in the event that some do defect to it from the EU, it would be blamed for breaking up the EU. Far better to wait to see how the effect of a Brexit impacts on the European Union and then work with whatever's there afterwards.
While predictions of imminent collapse have been frequent - and frequently wrong - people like Juncker have no idea of the scale of the risks their attitudes are running (though Tusk does seem to have his head on). The populist and Eurosceptic right are on the march across Europe and unless the EU reacts effectively to that, the house will be pulled down from the inside. A Brexit would still no doubt be blamed but less so than if we were actively canvassing for countries to leave in order to join our new club.
The reason is Remain MUST hold the City. If it were to emerge the City thought itself better outside the EU, it would destroy Remain's economic case utterly. It would atomise it.
Remain must try to keep the City onside at all costs.
Channel 4's one-off Eurotrash special will be on Friday 17th June at 9pm, just after Gogglesprogs (the kids version of Gogglebox)
I think that'd force democratic reforms on the former, and lead to a few other countries (like Sweden and Denmark) volunteering to join the latter.
I think times have changed greatly since the 1960s when we last led EFTA.
A good poll due for Remain?
Over £1 million matched in the last 24hrs.
Hardly a surprise. The big investment banks love regulation because it erects massive barriers to entry.
Those are only set to get bigger.
The haves and the have-nots analysis seems to be spot on.
I'll think they'll survive, though.
Of course the amount of regulation that we are seeing from Europe is staggering, and expensive, and the larger the institution the easier it would be to comply. But that is nothing to do with being in or out of the EU.
Their views on regulations are the same as everyone else's but they believe that the ease of doing business throughout Europe with one set of rules simplifies things greatly.
As it was always supposed to be and as it should be.
Huge Investment banks face far fewer competitors now than they did, say, 20 years ago - partly due to rampant merging and partly due to 2008.
Citigroup alone is comprised of two or three that used to be independent (Salomon / Smith Barney / and Citi itself).
Its the same for many others.
This situation gives the current players absurdly large market shares in some products, as well as huge political leverage they never used to enjoy.
The much healthier situation that used to prevail can never come back because new players can never compete, partly due to regulatory costs.