Sterling falls - good for exporters, and tourism. But I doubt it will amoount to much frankly House prices fall - good for more or less everyone in the long run, given current insanity City of London suffers - boo-hoo, how sad
Yeah it will be a bit worse for a bit. But it has the chance to be better in the long run. The main argument against Leave seems to be that we can;t be sure what will happen. Riiiiight 'cos if we stay it's all certain isn't it? We're certain about Greece are we? Italy? The bond markets, economic growth, a China slowdown...? FFS
Remain is the coward's choice!
Indeed. But look on the plus side, when we REMAIN and the Euro takes us off the cliff edge you'll see the elite squirming like never before to explain themselves.
As I've said before The Posh Boys are basically putting their faith and the long term destiny of the UK into the hands of complete and utter waste's of space like Mr juncker. They are relying on the eurocrats not to screw this thing up in the long term.
The europhiles will own every single disastrous decision and development that takes places in Brussels... What fund we'll have!
For self-government, certainly. There's more to life than maximising income.
For the past 6 years the mantra from the right has been Cut the Deficit, Cut the Deficit, Cut Deficit no matter the social or economic cost. But suddenly none of that matters anymore?
Alistair Meeks article is bang on the nail. Brexit will have an economic shock which is difficult to forecast but which will impact negatively on the government. It will be a self-inflicted wound and a free gift to Labour.
What we are agreed upon is that:- 1. Wages for the lowest paid will rise. (Lord Rose) 2. Food prices will eventually fall once we start importing more from the world and less from the EU. (Lord Ashdown) 3. The costs of housing will be a little lower than if we REMAIN as there will be less excess demand as there will be fewer immigrants. 4. The pressure on public services will be a little lower than if we REMAIN as there will be less excess demand as there will be fewer immigrants.
Now you may not want these things, but the people in the bottom half of the voters will enjoy life a little more.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
The same was said when we were talking about Leaving the ERM.
What always surprises me..... shouldn’t, I know, given his track record ...... is that Cameron never thanks Nicola Sturgeon (at least in public) for ensuring he kept his job.
I it is well known that I have never been a fan of Cameron and think he is massively overrated, which his behaviour in this referendum tends to support.
The main difference between 2010 and 2015 is Ed not Gordon, and Alex Salmond, Dave and George are the constants.
Are you saying that Gordon would have done better than Ed? I suppose that could be argued, especially in Scotland.
Are you saying Scottish people are racist, and anti English?
Allegedly the latter’s the case, although on my visits to Scotland I’ve never encountered any hostility. All I’m saying is that someone as demonstrably Scottish as Brown might engender warmer feelings that someone who wasn’t. Although IIRC Tony Blair did better than Gordon Brown.
I don't know whether anyone missed this yesterday but well worth reading from William Hague. There now seems to be a consensus that whatever the benefits of Leave we are certain to take an economic hit. That varies from relatively minor to catastrophic. The median seems to be 'quite severe'.
A recession is in any event, likely at some point between now and 2020, because that's just the nature of the business cycle. The government will have to own that, regardless of the outcome on June 23rd.
If we vote Brexit, the nature of British politics will have changed so much that forecasting becomes very difficult. A cock up like the ERM fiasco can very easily be blamed on the government of the day. Difficulties caused by a majority of the public voting to Leave are much less easily blamed on the government of the day.
You don't think the public are likely to blame the advocates of that decision for its consequences?
The argument would become about where it was a consequence of if it was going to happen anyway, since a recession is expected before 2020 irrespective of the referendum result.
Politically the right /UKIP have a lot riding on this. If they win there will be euphoria for a while certainly but if it goes tits up, or is perceived to have been a huge mistake the right/UKIP will be politically dead for years. There is always a silver lining!
If we vote LEAVE UKIP are probably finished as a party unless they reinvent themselves as a nationalist party for the working class.
That depends on what sort of leave happens, if its a fudgy EEA/EFTA Leave then UKIP will be the Guardians of the True Flame and may well benefit from a lot of angry Leavers who feel they have been stitched up.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
The same was said when we were talking about Leaving the ERM.
The same was said when we decided not to join the Euro. There is a pattern to these warnings. Always wrong and never learn.
Sounds like Farage is planning to pitch tonight's big debate speech as being primarily about anti-elite, anti-politics, give the buggers a bloody nose, only the rich will suffer if we leave, type of thing.
Could well work. Certainly seems aimed at non-metropolitan labour voters
I am extremely nervous about Farage.
He's quite good, until he starts talking about AIDS, rape and Putin. And will he be sober?
I'm still not 100% sure if he wants to win this referendum, or throw it.
After a vote for LEAVE there will be a big role for BREXITERS to hold the government to account and implement EXIT.
I don't know whether anyone missed this yesterday but well worth reading from William Hague. There now seems to be a consensus that whatever the benefits of Leave we are certain to take an economic hit. That varies from relatively minor to catastrophic. The median seems to be 'quite severe'.
In this context "quite severe" means less bad that a couple of middling years under the stewardship of G. Brown Esq, and yet we got from where he left us to the current booming economy in five years.
Hell we got from the bottom of the Sub Prime Crisis to the current economy in eight years, the suggestion that any fall out from Leave is going to go on for a decade is frankly for the birds.
Perhaps that's the equasion the voters will use. Say a cost to the country of £40 billion a year for five years. A personal loss to each person of say £50 a week. But for that you don't have to listen to Polish being spoken or have foreigners living in tents in High Wycombe.
My guess; for those who remember Thatcher's time when you couldn't walk past a doorway in Central London without passing someone living in a cardboard box I think they'll see it as progress and pocket the 50 quid
Miss Plato, thanks for posting that video. Chilton was rather good.
He's really quite impressive. The Labour argument for Leave is pretty compelling for a great many of their voters. It's such a contrast with the Hilary Benn Establishment types.
Mr. Glenn, you're arguing it's democratic for us to have laws imposed upon us by foreign judges, politicians and bureaucrats.
I wouldn't use the word 'impose' but in the broadest sense, yes. I'm saying that pure national self-determination is a more imperfect version of democracy than what we currently have.
How bizarre, in what we currently have, strategic direction is given by a meeting of heads of state in a selection of smoke filled rooms and a selection of un minuted bilaterals. The implementation of this is handed to a self-important bureaucracy who isn't elected by anyone (and mostly lost elections to get their jobs), who design and initiate the actual laws. These laws then get to the directly elected bit, who have no power to actually initiate any laws irrespective of the number of them that support it, who then have limited powers to amend those laws, and whose amendments can in many cases be overridden by the aforementioned unelected bureaucrats. Even the elected members are elected using the party list system so you can't get rid of a particular member if they appear to be underperforming or not representing you appropriately. Very democratic.
The heads of state are, of course, all democratically elected.
How would you do it differently?
Heads of state are in most cases indirectly elected to that job even if directly elected to their legislature. If the EU was going to be a real democracy then the Council of Europe (heads of state) has to go, and legislation has to be proposed and developed by elected people not the Commission, so the largest coalition would have to form a cabinet, and the EU Parliament's word on the legislation has to be final, not subject to second guessing by the Commission and the CoE.
Before any of that could be considered the EU needs a demos, and it doesn't have one, and I dont think will get one, the French and the Germans don't want to give up their national identity any more than we do.
Most proofs along these lines of why the EU doesn't work and can't be made to work are based on the false assumption that it is a state or needs to become a state.
I'm not arguing that the current set up is perfect but the kind of developments that are needed will come over time. The EU is a process as much as an institution.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
I don't believe that for a second. London will continue to be hugely successful outside the EU.
Our economic future is not to Remain shackled to a stagnant, overregulated and politically troubled regional customs union.
Conservative and Labour HQ staff will be doing what they can to organise activities to promote REMAIN.
However, many local parties, especially Conservative, will be organising on behalf of LEAVE.
Party organisation makes a big difference, particularly for finding out who your supporters are and getting out the vote on the day.
Does anyone have front line knowledge of how well organisation of central and local parties on behalf of LEAVE/REMAIN is going?
CCHQ have turned off their database Votesource for all local associations and federations. If they are using it now from the centre to identify the remain vote then i can see a lot of those associations calling for the head of DC after this is over .
Vote REMAIN to keep murderers, rapists and criminals in the UK..... This is the message in the media this morning.
Meanwhile Mandy is on Sky defending the EU and deportation problems.... Is this really the best way to appeal to Labour voters?
Brexit campaign accused of 'distorting real picture' over claim EU stops UK deporting dozens of criminals
'The bigger picture is that our access to the European Arrest Warrant has allowed us to deport 6,500 European criminals since 2010. That's 130 times the number of criminals Vote Leave have identified'
A recession is in any event, likely at some point between now and 2020, because that's just the nature of the business cycle. The government will have to own that, regardless of the outcome on June 23rd.
If we vote Brexit, the nature of British politics will have changed so much that forecasting becomes very difficult. A cock up like the ERM fiasco can very easily be blamed on the government of the day. Difficulties caused by a majority of the public voting to Leave are much less easily blamed on the government of the day.
You don't think the public are likely to blame the advocates of that decision for its consequences?
The argument would become about where it was a consequence of if it was going to happen anyway, since a recession is expected before 2020 irrespective of the referendum result.
Politically the right /UKIP have a lot riding on this. If they win there will be euphoria for a while certainly but if it goes tits up, or is perceived to have been a huge mistake the right/UKIP will be politically dead for years. There is always a silver lining!
If we vote LEAVE UKIP are probably finished as a party unless they reinvent themselves as a nationalist party for the working class.
That depends on what sort of leave happens, if its a fudgy EEA/EFTA Leave then UKIP will be the Guardians of the True Flame and may well benefit from a lot of angry Leavers who feel they have been stitched up.
If the Conservatives choose a LEAVEr as PM and then embrace the kippers, the membership will expand and the keepers of the flame will be inside the party. Just as the flame used to be the symbol... Also people such as Carswell and Suzanne Evans are probably going to rejoin in those circumstances.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.y
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
The same was said when we were talking about Leaving the ERM.
Those countries talk openly about poaching business from London. They tried to introduce a discriminatory regime on a Eurozone argument but were thwarted by Britain as a fellow EU member. Why do you think they would hold back once Britain was out of the EU? It's a cost of Brexit. It is what it is. London's best hope is that the alternative places of business are fragmented across the EU and are not consolidated into a single dominant centre other than itself.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
I don't believe that for a second. London will continue to be hugely successful outside the EU.
Our economic future is not to Remain shackled to a stagnant, overregulated and politically troubled regional customs union.
Hugely successful and as successful are not mutually incompatible.
. Even the elected members are elected using the party list system so you can't get rid of a particular member if they appear to be underperforming or not representing you appropriately. Very democratic.
Worth noting that, as with other unpopular "European" decisions, this is actually a British one. It is possible under EU rules to have the far more democratic "parallel list" system, where you can choose not just a party but a particular candidate on the list, and however many seats are won by that party are allocated to the candidates who personally got most votes. It's been left to parties to decide in Denmark, for instance - some do it, some don't. The advantage for parties using parallel lists is that they can offer a wide range of genuine choice - e.g. Labour could offer you Kate Hoey or Dennis Skinner or Peter Mandelson and you could choose which variety of Labour you preferred.
Britain decided to impose the hierarchical list system for all parties. It suits party managers, since they can stuff the top of the list with loyalists.
I don't know whether anyone missed this yesterday but well worth reading from William Hague. There now seems to be a consensus that whatever the benefits of Leave we are certain to take an economic hit. That varies from relatively minor to catastrophic. The median seems to be 'quite severe'.
In this context "quite severe" means less bad that a couple of middling years under the stewardship of G. Brown Esq, and yet we got from where he left us to the current booming economy in five years.
Hell we got from the bottom of the Sub Prime Crisis to the current economy in eight years, the suggestion that any fall out from Leave is going to go on for a decade is frankly for the birds.
In 2009, the IFS were claiming it would take 20 years to get back to where Brown had us in 2006/2007.
We are pretty much there in less than half the time
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Sterling falls - good for exporters, and tourism. But I doubt it will amoount to much frankly House prices fall - good for more or less everyone in the long run, given current insanity City of London suffers - boo-hoo, how sad
Yeah it will be a bit worse for a bit. But it has the chance to be better in the long run. The main argument against Leave seems to be that we can;t be sure what will happen. Riiiiight 'cos if we stay it's all certain isn't it? We're certain about Greece are we? Italy? The bond markets, economic growth, a China slowdown...? FFS
Remain is the coward's choice!
Indeed. But look on the plus side, when we REMAIN and the Euro takes us off the cliff edge you'll see the elite squirming like never before to explain themselves.
As I've said before The Posh Boys are basically putting their faith and the long term destiny of the UK into the hands of complete and utter waste's of space like Mr juncker. They are relying on the eurocrats not to screw this thing up in the long term.
The europhiles will own every single disastrous decision and development that takes places in Brussels... What fund we'll have!
The ranks of failed politicians who now run various EU fiefdoms is one of the biggest reasons to vote Leave - rejected by their voters, they get jobs for life without having to worry about them.
Mr. Glenn, you're arguing it's democratic for us to have laws imposed upon us by foreign judges, politicians and bureaucrats.
I wouldn't use the word 'impose' but in the broadest sense, yes. I'm saying that pure national self-determination is a more imperfect version of democracy than what we currently have.
How bizarre, in what we currently have, strategic direction is given by a meeting of heads of state in a selection of smoke filled rooms and a selection of un minuted bilaterals. The implementation of this is handed to a self-important bureaucracy who isn't elected by anyone (and mostly lost elections to get their jobs), who design and initiate the actual laws. These laws then get to the directly elected bit, who have no power to actually initiate any laws irrespective of the number of them that support it, who then have limited powers to amend those laws, and whose amendments can in many cases be overridden by the aforementioned unelected bureaucrats. Even the elected members are elected using the party list system so you can't get rid of a particular member if they appear to be underperforming or not representing you appropriately. Very democratic.
The heads of state are, of course, all democratically elected.
How would you do it differently?
Heads of state are in most cases indirectly elected to that job even if directly elected to their legislature. If the EU was going to be a real democracy then the Council of Europe (heads of state) has to go, and legislation has to be proposed and developed by elected people not the Commission, so the largest coalition would have to form a cabinet, and the EU Parliament's word on the legislation has to be final, not subject to second guessing by the Commission and the CoE.
Before any of that could be considered the EU needs a demos, and it doesn't have one, and I dont think will get one, the French and the Germans don't want to give up their national identity any more than we do.
That's not really an answer to the question, though. Given the lack of a demos, how would you do it differently? Would you do it differently? Does a legislating organisation of democratic countries have to itself be democratic to the extent of requiring a common demos? I don't see that it does, but I expect you see it differently. I'd like to see the EU working towards a demos as part of ever closer union, but I don't see it as a necessity.
Vote REMAIN to keep murderers, rapists and criminals in the UK..... This is the message in the media this morning.
Meanwhile Mandy is on Sky defending the EU and deportation problems.... Is this really the best way to appeal to Labour voters?
Brexit campaign accused of 'distorting real picture' over claim EU stops UK deporting dozens of criminals
'The bigger picture is that our access to the European Arrest Warrant has allowed us to deport 6,500 European criminals since 2010. That's 130 times the number of criminals Vote Leave have identified'
Some won't see the loss of the EAW as a bad thing, idea that a British Citizen can be extradited to Bulgaria, tried in a Bulgarian court, and throw into a Bulgarian Jail for doing something which isn't even a crime in the UK is a complete disgrace.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
I don't believe that for a second. London will continue to be hugely successful outside the EU.
You should ask yourself why London has been so phenomenally successful (with all the good and bad consequences of that) over the last couple of decades within the EU but outside the Eurozone. Could it not be that this has been a beneficial set of circumstances?
I don't know whether anyone missed this yesterday but well worth reading from William Hague. There now seems to be a consensus that whatever the benefits of Leave we are certain to take an economic hit. That varies from relatively minor to catastrophic. The median seems to be 'quite severe'.
In this context "quite severe" means less bad that a couple of middling years under the stewardship of G. Brown Esq, and yet we got from where he left us to the current booming economy in five years.
Hell we got from the bottom of the Sub Prime Crisis to the current economy in eight years, the suggestion that any fall out from Leave is going to go on for a decade is frankly for the birds.
My guess; for those who remember Thatcher's time when you couldn't walk past a doorway in Central London without passing someone living in a cardboard box I think they'll see it as progress and pocket the 50 quid
I remember when it was difficult to walk in parts of London during Labour's time in the 70s because of the dustmen strikes etc. Hard to notice anyone living in them as the piles were so high. At least by the end of the 80s we mainly had enough spare cash to give to a beggar, if we ever saw one. Before Thatcher we struggled to look after ourselves. Advertising certainly grew dramatically during the Thatcher years, better than the 1970s - or did you not notice Roger?
I don't know whether anyone missed this yesterday but well worth reading from William Hague. There now seems to be a consensus that whatever the benefits of Leave we are certain to take an economic hit. That varies from relatively minor to catastrophic. The median seems to be 'quite severe'.
In this context "quite severe" means less bad that a couple of middling years under the stewardship of G. Brown Esq, and yet we got from where he left us to the current booming economy in five years.
Hell we got from the bottom of the Sub Prime Crisis to the current economy in eight years, the suggestion that any fall out from Leave is going to go on for a decade is frankly for the birds.
In 2009, the IFS were claiming it would take 20 years to get back to where Brown had us in 2006/2007.
We are pretty much there in less than half the time
The IFS' credibility has taken a hammering in recent months.
not a zinger, just promoting those theories is deeply illogical.
Quite why you invoke investment as your killing argument I have no idea, but I suppose skim-reading wiki for your responses does have its challenges. Especially as it's early.
And still you limp on.
Wikipedia? Do I even want to ask?
There is no illogicality. There never was. You can question the long term benefits. You can question the short term costs. What you can't do, is imply any incompatibility between the two. Not on a forum where adults are posting.
Remain has really ruined you. Do run along now.
Run along now! Mark of a seasoned debater.
Now unless you are having a larf and are not really as uninformed as you appear..
Investment projects, including the negative investment today, are expected to yield a positive NPV, and economic forecasts are critical to determine the environment in which that investment project will operate and hence yield a positive return.
We are here talking about those economic forecasts. The ones that your investments are predicated upon.
Now, it's of course perfectly possible for, say, economic growth to be X for the first five years, and then Y for the following five. And for that to yield a positive NPV for the country. But the complexity of such a forecast is formidable. It is difficult enough to forecast the next recession. You are saying that it is possible to forecast the next recession, the next upswing, the following recession and the subsequent upswing. And that all of that put together is good for the country.
Now, LuckyGuy, you might be able to do that. But are you really saying we should bet the farm on it transpiring?
If I can drag people away from the referendum briefly, do we have any thoughts on Trump's price, currently 4.3/4.4?
He has drifted a lot in the last two weeks, presumably because of my-judge-is-a-mexican, the Trump University story itself and the perception that Republicans who have endorsed him aren't actually willing to go into bat for him. Also, perhaps, it's because Clinton is - finally - closing in on the nomination.
But has anything changed fundamentally? Should we be backing Trump at these odds or is he likely to drift further?
A recession is in any event, likely at some point between now and 2020, because that's just the nature of the business cycle. The government will have to own that, regardless of the outcome on June 23rd.
If we vote Brexit, the nature of British politics will have changed so much that forecasting becomes very difficult. A cock up like the ERM fiasco can very easily be blamed on the government of the day. Difficulties caused by a majority of the public voting to Leave are much less easily blamed on the government of the day.
You don't think the public are likely to blame the advocates of that decision for its consequences?
The argument would become about where it was a consequence of if it was going to happen anyway, since a recession is expected before 2020 irrespective of the referendum result.
Politically the right /UKIP have a lot riding on this. If they win there will be euphoria for a while certainly but if it goes tits up, or is perceived to have been a huge mistake the right/UKIP will be politically dead for years. There is always a silver lining!
If we vote LEAVE UKIP are probably finished as a party unless they reinvent themselves as a nationalist party for the working class.
I'll settle for the Tory right being totally discredited for a generation. Never really worried about UKIP as a political threat to be honest
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
Note that EU attempts to introduce a financial transaction tax are starting to crumble due to insufficient countries agreeing to it.
The EU was threatening to apply the transaction tax to euro transactions carried out in London even though the UK was not signed up to it (apart from stamp duty).
Other countries are realising that they would just be driving financial business away to New York or Singapore.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
I don't believe that for a second. London will continue to be hugely successful outside the EU.
Our economic future is not to Remain shackled to a stagnant, overregulated and politically troubled regional customs union.
Hugely successful and as successful are not mutually incompatible.
In the long term, absolutely.
London is the world's number 1 city. We must have control of our own economic regulation to take advantage of it.
I don't know whether anyone missed this yesterday but well worth reading from William Hague. There now seems to be a consensus that whatever the benefits of Leave we are certain to take an economic hit. That varies from relatively minor to catastrophic. The median seems to be 'quite severe'.
In this context "quite severe" means less bad that a couple of middling years under the stewardship of G. Brown Esq, and yet we got from where he left us to the current booming economy in five years.
Hell we got from the bottom of the Sub Prime Crisis to the current economy in eight years, the suggestion that any fall out from Leave is going to go on for a decade is frankly for the birds.
In 2009, the IFS were claiming it would take 20 years to get back to where Brown had us in 2006/2007. We are pretty much there in less than half the time
The IFS' credibility has taken a hammering in recent months.
Guido once wrote that the IFS were on the left leaning side of think tanks. I was not party to the logic but Guido is usually accurate in those areas as they have excellent links to the spads and wonks. One IFS policy is that they want no inheritance tax allowances at all. Which is more socialist than the current Labour party!
If I can drag people away from the referendum briefly, do we have any thoughts on Trump's price, currently 4.3/4.4?
He has drifted a lot in the last two weeks, presumably because of my-judge-is-a-mexican, the Trump University story itself and the perception that Republicans who have endorsed him aren't actually willing to go into bat for him. Also, perhaps, it's because Clinton is - finally - closing in on the nomination.
But has anything changed fundamentally? Should we be backing Trump at these odds or is he likely to drift further?
I can't see him drifting further, as it feels to me as if this will be closer than many think.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
The same was said when we were talking about Leaving the ERM.
And the Euro - it'll all go to Frankfurt and Paris - and it didn't. Our very capable and cute City found ways around and made new markets. It's an empty argument - the successful will make their own destiny as always.
Vote REMAIN to keep murderers, rapists and criminals in the UK..... This is the message in the media this morning.
Meanwhile Mandy is on Sky defending the EU and deportation problems.... Is this really the best way to appeal to Labour voters?
Brexit campaign accused of 'distorting real picture' over claim EU stops UK deporting dozens of criminals
'The bigger picture is that our access to the European Arrest Warrant has allowed us to deport 6,500 European criminals since 2010. That's 130 times the number of criminals Vote Leave have identified'
If I can drag people away from the referendum briefly, do we have any thoughts on Trump's price, currently 4.3/4.4?
He has drifted a lot in the last two weeks, presumably because of my-judge-is-a-mexican, the Trump University story itself and the perception that Republicans who have endorsed him aren't actually willing to go into bat for him. Also, perhaps, it's because Clinton is - finally - closing in on the nomination.
But has anything changed fundamentally? Should we be backing Trump at these odds or is he likely to drift further?
I did see a piece a few weeks ago (meant to do a thread on it) which shows the events activity with Governors, Senators, & Congressmen/women the nominee has normally done after gaining the nomination.
I think it is less than 10% of what Obama, McCain, Bush 43, Kerry, Gore, and Clinton did.
It's almost like most GOP candidates downticket don't wish to be seen with Trump.
I don't know whether anyone missed this yesterday but well worth reading from William Hague. There now seems to be a consensus that whatever the benefits of Leave we are certain to take an economic hit. That varies from relatively minor to catastrophic. The median seems to be 'quite severe'.
In this context "quite severe" means less bad that a couple of middling years under the stewardship of G. Brown Esq, and yet we got from where he left us to the current booming economy in five years.
Hell we got from the bottom of the Sub Prime Crisis to the current economy in eight years, the suggestion that any fall out from Leave is going to go on for a decade is frankly for the birds.
In 2009, the IFS were claiming it would take 20 years to get back to where Brown had us in 2006/2007.
We are pretty much there in less than half the time
The IFS' credibility has taken a hammering in recent months.
Now, LuckyGuy, you might be able to do that. But are you really saying we should bet the farm on it transpiring?
You appear perfectly happy to bet the farm on Greece not imploding, Italy not imploding, FN not being elected in France, Merkel not losing her majority, Grillo not winning in Italy, and any number of other EU imponderables, or is that different ?
I don't know whether anyone missed this yesterday but well worth reading from William Hague. There now seems to be a consensus that whatever the benefits of Leave we are certain to take an economic hit. That varies from relatively minor to catastrophic. The median seems to be 'quite severe'.
In this context "quite severe" means less bad that a couple of middling years under the stewardship of G. Brown Esq, and yet we got from where he left us to the current booming economy in five years.
Hell we got from the bottom of the Sub Prime Crisis to the current economy in eight years, the suggestion that any fall out from Leave is going to go on for a decade is frankly for the birds.
In 2009, the IFS were claiming it would take 20 years to get back to where Brown had us in 2006/2007.
We are pretty much there in less than half the time
The IFS' credibility has taken a hammering in recent months.
Well it's important we have forcasts. Should we leave it to Chestnut?
Vote REMAIN to keep murderers, rapists and criminals in the UK..... This is the message in the media this morning.
Meanwhile Mandy is on Sky defending the EU and deportation problems.... Is this really the best way to appeal to Labour voters?
Brexit campaign accused of 'distorting real picture' over claim EU stops UK deporting dozens of criminals
'The bigger picture is that our access to the European Arrest Warrant has allowed us to deport 6,500 European criminals since 2010. That's 130 times the number of criminals Vote Leave have identified'
Some won't see the loss of the EAW as a bad thing, idea that a British Citizen can be extradited to Bulgaria, tried in a Bulgarian court, and throw into a Bulgarian Jail for doing something which isn't even a crime in the UK is a complete disgrace.
We don’t get particularly upset when the US do it. I go to Thailand quite often; if I make the sort of remarks about their Crown Prince there that I could do here about Prince Charles I would get fined and quite possibly jailed. I’ve gone to their country and broken their laws. End of.
Time to say goodbye to my wonderful old dog today.
There can't be any more visceral an experience than digging a grave for somebody you love.
I'm so sorry to hear that. I know exactly what you mean. It doesn't get easier does it? I say that as a dog owner for over fifty years (pedant deflection: not the same dog).
Alistair Meeks article is bang on the nail. Brexit will have an economic shock which is difficult to forecast but which will impact negatively on the government. It will be a self-inflicted wound and a free gift to Labour.
What we are agreed upon is that:- 1. Wages for the lowest paid will rise. (Lord Rose) 2. Food prices will eventually fall once we start importing more from the world and less from the EU. (Lord Ashdown) 3. The costs of housing will be a little lower than if we REMAIN as there will be less excess demand as there will be fewer immigrants. 4. The pressure on public services will be a little lower than if we REMAIN as there will be less excess demand as there will be fewer immigrants.
Now you may not want these things, but the people in the bottom half of the voters will enjoy life a little more.
It's all got to actually happen of course, Leave are writing a lot of cheques at the moment. My mother & her elderly crowd are voting Leave and expecting all the immigrants to be going home as soon as we Brexit. I haven't the heart to tell her, she will find out soon enough.
Vote REMAIN to keep murderers, rapists and criminals in the UK..... This is the message in the media this morning.
Meanwhile Mandy is on Sky defending the EU and deportation problems.... Is this really the best way to appeal to Labour voters?
Wouldn't it be wise to check on the quid pro quo of British rapists murderers and rapists in foreign jails before commiting ourselves?
It's really not an issue that Remain want to be campaigning on either way.
There are two problems with it. The first is the perception that 'they shouldn't be here in the first place', which is difficult to counter with anything like the brevity needed to make the case; the second is the problem with deporting criminals who've served their sentence, which whatever the law says seems far more troublesome in practice than many believe it should be.
Most people won't care about where British people are serving sentences as long as they believe that they're guilty, and will accept that we might have to take the back here once they've done their time. They find it harder to see why foreign criminals should be here.
I don't know whether anyone missed this yesterday but well worth reading from William Hague. There now seems to be a consensus that whatever the benefits of Leave we are certain to take an economic hit. That varies from relatively minor to catastrophic. The median seems to be 'quite severe'.
In this context "quite severe" means less bad that a couple of middling years under the stewardship of G. Brown Esq, and yet we got from where he left us to the current booming economy in five years.
Hell we got from the bottom of the Sub Prime Crisis to the current economy in eight years, the suggestion that any fall out from Leave is going to go on for a decade is frankly for the birds.
In 2009, the IFS were claiming it would take 20 years to get back to where Brown had us in 2006/2007.
We are pretty much there in less than half the time
The IFS' credibility has taken a hammering in recent months.
Yes, interesting. If economic mayhem ensues then things could get devilishly tricky for whatever Tory Leaver, presumably Boris, takes over. As the economic bonfires around him rage, Boris will be frequently asked, 'Do you now regret advocating Brexit?' Say 'yes' and he looks like an arrogant incompetent who didn't heed the warnings; say 'no' and he looks like an arrogant ideologue and a price-worth-paying merchant. Neither are particularly endearing.
Yet another paid Cameron stooge - no wonder the deficit is so large - the govt paying billions to bribe world leaders, economists, environmentalists......
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
I find it equally so that people should have so little confidence in the UK as an independent sovereign nation that they think it couldn't possibly hold its own in the EU and should instead run away screaming.
You appear perfectly happy to bet the farm on Greece not imploding, Italy not imploding, FN not being elected in France, Merkel not losing her majority, Grillo not winning in Italy, and any number of other EU imponderables, or is that different ?
The Brexit argument appears to be we can make those things MORE likely if we leave.
Why would you want to vote for that?
@hugorifkind: Non-fighty q for Brexiters. Does it bother you that rest of EU may suffer if we leave? Or is that their problem? Or don't you think it will?
Time to say goodbye to my wonderful old dog today.
There can't be any more visceral an experience than digging a grave for somebody you love.
Sorry to hear that Mr Mark. In a nutshell that is one of the reasons I have never had a dog. You wouldn't guess it here, but under the steel breast of this baby eating Tory is a big softie trying to escape
Is this another article from the "impartial" Financial Times which:- 1. Wanted us to join ERM and stay in it. 2. To join the Euro. 3. To REMAIN in the EU....
If I can drag people away from the referendum briefly, do we have any thoughts on Trump's price, currently 4.3/4.4?
He has drifted a lot in the last two weeks, presumably because of my-judge-is-a-mexican, the Trump University story itself and the perception that Republicans who have endorsed him aren't actually willing to go into bat for him. Also, perhaps, it's because Clinton is - finally - closing in on the nomination.
But has anything changed fundamentally? Should we be backing Trump at these odds or is he likely to drift further?
Worth a trading bet at the least. Highly unlikely that he'll be this long all the way to November.
I find it equally so that people should have so little confidence in the UK as an independent sovereign nation that they think it couldn't possibly hold its own in the EU and should instead run away screaming.
That is a curious thing.
The message from Brexit is that the patriotic British thing to do is run away "like a little girl" (NewsSense™)
On Topic. If the price of Brexit is Corbyn as PM it is a price worth paying. He can be booted out five years later if he fails. I will never get another chance to boot out the European Union in my lifetime however badly they fail.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
The same was said when we were talking about Leaving the ERM.
And the Euro - it'll all go to Frankfurt and Paris - and it didn't. Our very capable and cute City found ways around and made new markets. It's an empty argument - the successful will make their own destiny
Conservative and Labour HQ staff will be doing what they can to organise activities to promote REMAIN.
However, many local parties, especially Conservative, will be organising on behalf of LEAVE.
Party organisation makes a big difference, particularly for finding out who your supporters are and getting out the vote on the day.
Does anyone have front line knowledge of how well organisation of central and local parties on behalf of LEAVE/REMAIN is going?
CCHQ have turned off their database Votesource for all local associations and federations. If they are using it now from the centre to identify the remain vote then i can see a lot of those associations calling for the head of DC after this is over .
I'm thinking that local Conservative parties will have taken a copy of the local Votesource data and could make some use of it for recording LEAVE supporters and a Get Out the Vote operation.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
Note that EU attempts to introduce a financial transaction tax are starting to crumble due to insufficient countries agreeing to it.
The EU was threatening to apply the transaction tax to euro transactions carried out in London even though the UK was not signed up to it (apart from stamp duty).
Other countries are realising that they would just be driving financial business away to New York or Singapore.
It doesn't have to be a transaction tax, which is still on the table incidentally. It could be regulatory oversight for example, which is something the ECB has been keen to keep within the Eurozone. The points are, no-one is going to consider any arguments from the UK about any of this once it's left the EU, and it's easier for traders to move everything to a place other than London if effectively you can't do some of the transactions there.
Now, LuckyGuy, you might be able to do that. But are you really saying we should bet the farm on it transpiring?
You appear perfectly happy to bet the farm on Greece not imploding, Italy not imploding, FN not being elected in France, Merkel not losing her majority, Grillo not winning in Italy, and any number of other EU imponderables, or is that different ?
Wait, you mean the EU is allowing an election in France? How did that happen??
We would of course be affected to a lesser or greater extent if any of those other things happened, but as you will know from the terms of the SSM and the SRM, we are reasonably well insulated from the direct repercussions.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
I find it equally so that people should have so little confidence in the UK as an independent sovereign nation that they think it couldn't possibly hold its own in the EU and should instead run away screaming.
No-one is saying we should run away screaming. It's not a question of whether we speak up or not inside the EU; we just don't have the powers to do anything about it.
We will continue to be positive and constructive players on the continent, and in Europe, just not as part of the EU.
But you and I have always struggled to understand one another on this.
On Topic. If the price of Brexit is Corbyn as PM it is a price worth paying. He can be booted out five years later if he fails. I will never get another chance to boot out the European Union in my lifetime however badly they fail.
You're forgetting that if we leave, it will not be the final word on the British constitution. There are many long-standing issues kicked into the long grass that will become more pressing post-Brexit. Would you be happy to see Corbyn in the driving seat while those issues are decided?
Vote REMAIN to keep murderers, rapists and criminals in the UK..... This is the message in the media this morning.
Meanwhile Mandy is on Sky defending the EU and deportation problems.... Is this really the best way to appeal to Labour voters?
Brexit campaign accused of 'distorting real picture' over claim EU stops UK deporting dozens of criminals
'The bigger picture is that our access to the European Arrest Warrant has allowed us to deport 6,500 European criminals since 2010. That's 130 times the number of criminals Vote Leave have identified'
Some won't see the loss of the EAW as a bad thing, idea that a British Citizen can be extradited to Bulgaria, tried in a Bulgarian court, and throw into a Bulgarian Jail for doing something which isn't even a crime in the UK is a complete disgrace.
We don’t get particularly upset when the US do it. I go to Thailand quite often; if I make the sort of remarks about their Crown Prince there that I could do here about Prince Charles I would get fined and quite possibly jailed. I’ve gone to their country and broken their laws. End of.
But under the EAW you could be sitting in London, having never actually be to Thailand in your life, posted some rude things about their Crown Prince online, and they would phone up London and ask them to put you on a plane, try you, and throw you in jail. I understand the principle of "when in Rome" completely, how could I otherwise in my current lifestyle
I find it equally so that people should have so little confidence in the UK as an independent sovereign nation that they think it couldn't possibly hold its own in the EU and should instead run away screaming.
That is a curious thing.
The message from Brexit is that the patriotic British thing to do is run away "like a little girl" (NewsSense™)
It's pathetic
The message is that we govern ourselves, and enjoy friendly relations with foreign countries.
I find it equally so that people should have so little confidence in the UK as an independent sovereign nation that they think it couldn't possibly hold its own in the EU and should instead run away screaming.
That is a curious thing.
The message from Brexit is that the patriotic British thing to do is run away "like a little girl" (NewsSense™)
It's pathetic
The message is that we govern ourselves, and enjoy friendly relations with foreign countries.
A prospect which some people find horrifying.
Britain was at its best when we at war with most foreign countries.
You think we got our Empire by being nice to foreign countries?
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
London's dominance as Europe's finance centre will be a price of Brexit. The Dutch, French and Irish governments have been coveting London's wealth for their capitals for some time. It will be easy for EU governments to enact a discriminatory tax and legal regime that will keep EU-related business within the EU. They don't need to negotiate anything with Britain, it will happen by default. It will also compensate them for any downsides if they don't do a deal with Britain on trade.
There will still be a role for London as a financial centre but it will be diminished.
Note that EU attempts to introduce a financial transaction tax are starting to crumble due to insufficient countries agreeing to it.
The EU was threatening to apply the transaction tax to euro transactions carried out in London even though the UK was not signed up to it (apart from stamp duty).
Other countries are realising that they would just be driving financial business away to New York or Singapore.
It doesn't have to be a transaction tax, which is still on the table incidentally. It could be regulatory oversight for example, which is something the ECB has been keen to keep within the Eurozone. The points are, no-one is going to consider any arguments from the UK about any of this once it's left the EU, and it's easier for traders to move everything to a place other than London if effectively you can't do some of the transactions there.
That could easily happen even if we Remain, the Eurozone is federalising are we are the square peg that doesn't fit in their round hole.
Yet another paid Cameron stooge - no wonder the deficit is so large - the govt paying billions to bribe world leaders, economists, environmentalists......
And all the climate scientists, of course. Mind you, that probably doesn't cost too much. It's not as though highly numerate logical thinkers are capable of any other kind of work.
Is this another article from the "impartial" Financial Times which:- 1. Wanted us to join ERM and stay in it. 2. To join the Euro. 3. To REMAIN in the EU....
The FT is the Daily Express of the Remain campaign.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Most voters don't believe they'd be worse off outside the EU.
On Topic. If the price of Brexit is Corbyn as PM it is a price worth paying. He can be booted out five years later if he fails. I will never get another chance to boot out the European Union in my lifetime however badly they fail.
You're forgetting that if we leave, it will not be the final word on the British constitution. There are many long-standing issues kicked into the long grass that will become more pressing post-Brexit. Would you be happy to see Corbyn in the driving seat while those issues are decided?
If we don't like his answer, we kick him out and elect someone else with a better answer, if the Commission decides, we can't do that.
Canary Wharf absolutely saturated this morning with electronic Vote Remain adverts.
They are everywhere. Like something out of the minority report.
Apparently, you've been identified as a key decision maker. You're being tracked by your cellphone, and will see Remain advertising wherever you. Your TV, your browser will show you nought but Remain propaganda. They hope to wear you down, so that eventually you say... Enough!
So that eventually you say....Not Enough! I'm Remaining!
I wouldn't vote Remain in a million years. And the idea our economic prosperity is contingent upon our membership of the EU is laughable.
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
It's the economy stupid, just look at the entrails of today's YouGov, much like how it was neck and neck in the VI at the GE polls, but the supplementaries show voters think they'd be better off under the Tories/Remaining in the EU.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
Most voters don't believe they'd be worse off outside the EU.
But more think we'd be worse off by Leaving than Remaining.
On Topic. If the price of Brexit is Corbyn as PM it is a price worth paying. He can be booted out five years later if he fails. I will never get another chance to boot out the European Union in my lifetime however badly they fail.
You're forgetting that if we leave, it will not be the final word on the British constitution. There are many long-standing issues kicked into the long grass that will become more pressing post-Brexit. Would you be happy to see Corbyn in the driving seat while those issues are decided?
If we don't like his answer, we kick him out and elect someone else with a better answer, if the Commission decides, we can't do that.
If his answer is kicking Northern Ireland out of the UK and handing the Falklands to Argentina it's not so easy to reverse at the next election.
Comments
As I've said before The Posh Boys are basically putting their faith and the long term destiny of the UK into the hands of complete and utter waste's of space like Mr juncker. They are relying on the eurocrats not to screw this thing up in the long term.
The europhiles will own every single disastrous decision and development that takes places in Brussels... What fund we'll have!
It would be good for the economies of Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Greece to be free of the Euro and to be able to devalue against the Euro.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11880864/Conservative-Party-to-stay-neutral-during-EU-referendum.html
1. Wages for the lowest paid will rise. (Lord Rose)
2. Food prices will eventually fall once we start importing more from the world and less from the EU. (Lord Ashdown)
3. The costs of housing will be a little lower than if we REMAIN as there will be less excess demand as there will be fewer immigrants.
4. The pressure on public services will be a little lower than if we REMAIN as there will be less excess demand as there will be fewer immigrants.
Now you may not want these things, but the people in the bottom half of the voters will enjoy life a little more.
All I’m saying is that someone as demonstrably Scottish as Brown might engender warmer feelings that someone who wasn’t.
Although IIRC Tony Blair did better than Gordon Brown.
I like him a lot and think he's an honorable man, but that result hugely affected him and his confidence.
IMHO, had he not been leader from 97-01, he'd be a Brexiter now and possibly even doing Boris' role on the national stage.
After a vote for LEAVE there will be a big role for BREXITERS to hold the government to account and implement EXIT.
UKIP could become the lead party in this role.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/740107161825640448
My guess; for those who remember Thatcher's time when you couldn't walk past a doorway in Central London without passing someone living in a cardboard box I think they'll see it as progress and pocket the 50 quid
Meanwhile Mandy is on Sky defending the EU and deportation problems.... Is this really the best way to appeal to Labour voters?
I'm not arguing that the current set up is perfect but the kind of developments that are needed will come over time. The EU is a process as much as an institution.
Our economic future is not to Remain shackled to a stagnant, overregulated and politically troubled regional customs union.
'The bigger picture is that our access to the European Arrest Warrant has allowed us to deport 6,500 European criminals since 2010. That's 130 times the number of criminals Vote Leave have identified'
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-brexit-campaign-distorting-facts-criminals-deported-uk-european-arrest-warrant-a7068561.html
Oh wait you did do a thread on that.
Britain decided to impose the hierarchical list system for all parties. It suits party managers, since they can stuff the top of the list with loyalists.
We are pretty much there in less than half the time
I am totally baffled as to why Leave isn't winning this hands down. We all know precisely what the EU is like and where it's going, and the opportunities open to us if we take control.
Apart from a handful of euro fanatics I don't believe many people really don't want to vote for more control over their own laws and way of life, so it's pure fear and risk aversion keeping us in.
Which I find very sad, and a bit pathetic too.
Are we to never extradite again if we leave the EU?
A League of Losers.
I don't think its economy has grown for ten years.
Remain 55 / Leave 45 / Turnout assumption 85% (all voters 1/10 upwards but no push on D/Ks)
Remain 50.4 / Leave 49.6 / Turnout assumption 60% (voters 9/10+)
Remain 49.7 / Leave 50.3 / Turnout assumption 59% (voters 10/10)
Now unless you are having a larf and are not really as uninformed as you appear..
Investment projects, including the negative investment today, are expected to yield a positive NPV, and economic forecasts are critical to determine the environment in which that investment project will operate and hence yield a positive return.
We are here talking about those economic forecasts. The ones that your investments are predicated upon.
Now, it's of course perfectly possible for, say, economic growth to be X for the first five years, and then Y for the following five. And for that to yield a positive NPV for the country. But the complexity of such a forecast is formidable. It is difficult enough to forecast the next recession. You are saying that it is possible to forecast the next recession, the next upswing, the following recession and the subsequent upswing. And that all of that put together is good for the country.
Now, LuckyGuy, you might be able to do that. But are you really saying we should bet the farm on it transpiring?
He has drifted a lot in the last two weeks, presumably because of my-judge-is-a-mexican, the Trump University story itself and the perception that Republicans who have endorsed him aren't actually willing to go into bat for him. Also, perhaps, it's because Clinton is - finally - closing in on the nomination.
But has anything changed fundamentally? Should we be backing Trump at these odds or is he likely to drift further?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b296fa42-2bd4-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc.html#axzz4An2DiYEX
The EU was threatening to apply the transaction tax to euro transactions carried out in London even though the UK was not signed up to it (apart from stamp duty).
Other countries are realising that they would just be driving financial business away to New York or Singapore.
Edited extra bit: saw a HIGNFY repeat the other day. Blair'd refused an EU referendum because we might vote the wrong way.
There can't be any more visceral an experience than digging a grave for somebody you love.
London is the world's number 1 city. We must have control of our own economic regulation to take advantage of it.
I've done that myself. It's rather horrendous. Hopefully the knowledge you gave your hound a good life helps ease things.
I think it is less than 10% of what Obama, McCain, Bush 43, Kerry, Gore, and Clinton did.
It's almost like most GOP candidates downticket don't wish to be seen with Trump.
On a different topic, anyone here know how to remove an appendix?
http://www.ifs.org.uk/people?sorting=all&q=&page=1&
There are two problems with it. The first is the perception that 'they shouldn't be here in the first place', which is difficult to counter with anything like the brevity needed to make the case; the second is the problem with deporting criminals who've served their sentence, which whatever the law says seems far more troublesome in practice than many believe it should be.
Most people won't care about where British people are serving sentences as long as they believe that they're guilty, and will accept that we might have to take the back here once they've done their time. They find it harder to see why foreign criminals should be here.
Why would you want to vote for that?
@hugorifkind: Non-fighty q for Brexiters. Does it bother you that rest of EU may suffer if we leave? Or is that their problem? Or don't you think it will?
1. Wanted us to join ERM and stay in it.
2. To join the Euro.
3. To REMAIN in the EU....
The message from Brexit is that the patriotic British thing to do is run away "like a little girl" (NewsSense™)
It's pathetic
Very sad when a dog goes. Fortunately the sadness doesn't last as long as it does with humans
I know it well. He looked such a cutie too. You were lucky to know each other.
We would of course be affected to a lesser or greater extent if any of those other things happened, but as you will know from the terms of the SSM and the SRM, we are reasonably well insulated from the direct repercussions.
If Leave do lose this, the moment they chose to ignore the EEA route will be seen as pivotal.
We will continue to be positive and constructive players on the continent, and in Europe, just not as part of the EU.
But you and I have always struggled to understand one another on this.
A prospect which some people find horrifying.
You think we got our Empire by being nice to foreign countries?
Much like at GE 2015.
Sorry to hear about your dog, what we get from our animals always has to be repaid in full at these moments.