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SystemSystem Posts: 12,681
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s EURef polling gives contradictory trends, but both have Remain ahead

I’m finding all of this very confusing, head says Remain are going to win this, heart says Leave is going to win. Just imagine what David Cameron is feeling right now.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,257
    How can your heart say Leave is going to win when you have been canvassing for Remain?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    Second like remain, no leave, no remain, who.knows..
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    What are the dates for ORB?

    Does YouGov reflect Major intervention?

    It was looking very, very good for Leave until this YouGov.

    Has Major turned the tide? Remember Major stopped Brown calling a 2007 GE - and thus allowed Cameron to become PM. Is he now going to save him again?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    Fpt
    williamglenn said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Goodnight all. I think my wife is getting fed up with me being on a smartphone

    I'm hooked to an Oculus Rift for the totally immersive pb experience
    Have you tried a Hololens? AR is where it's at.
    I have, Satya Nadella showed me it two weeks ago when he was in London.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    The ORB phone poll is good for Leave.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    rcs1000 said:

    Fpt

    williamglenn said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Goodnight all. I think my wife is getting fed up with me being on a smartphone

    I'm hooked to an Oculus Rift for the totally immersive pb experience
    Have you tried a Hololens? AR is where it's at.
    I have, Satya Nadella showed me it two weeks ago when he was in London.
    It has terrible field of vision...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited June 2016
    Bluffing...

    @faisalislam: Global Chairman of Japanese giant Hitachi tells the Mirror: "Brexit would force us and similar companies to rethink" UK expansion plans

    @faisalislam: Hitachi Chairman Nakanishi to the Mirror: "jobs would be lost. This is the cold economic reality of Brexit"
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,584
    After this week can we say that it appears the Online polls have won the battle (if not the war) with the phone polls showing quite dramatic convergence towards the online position?
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Just imagine what David Cameron is feeling right now.

    Oh I can, and I'm enjoying it. He's fucked, the referendum is irrelevant, don't say I never told you so.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Scott_P said:

    Bluffing...

    @faisalislam: Global Chairman of Japanese giant Hitachi tells the Mirror: "Brexit would force us and similar companies to rethink" UK expansion plans

    @faisalislam: Hitachi Chairman Nakanishi to the Mirror: "jobs would be lost. This is the cold economic reality of Brexit"

    Ah, a reboost of Project Fear again.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    How can your heart say Leave is going to win when you have been canvassing for Remain?

    LEAVE has the emotional momentum, all the joy and feelz, REMAIN is boring and sad.

    But the same was true of YES in Sindyref, and that ended in victory for NO.

    REMAIN will win like NO, but with a smaller margin....?
    Canvassing, it appears committed Leavers are more motivated, immigration really boils their piss.

    However, I can see the economic certainty really pushing DKs to Remain.

    I've been canvassing in Sheffield, but this week, I'll be canvassing in West Yorkshire which is more right wing than South Yorkshire, I'll have a better feel of who is going to win.

    My canvassing experiences are in line for a Remain victory.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    To repeat: I think I'm having a sort of bipolar sensation having just put up a Labour Party "Remain" sign. Maybe I should go DIY instead.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,257
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    How can your heart say Leave is going to win when you have been canvassing for Remain?

    LEAVE has the emotional momentum, all the joy and feelz, REMAIN is boring and sad.

    But the same was true of YES in Sindyref, and that ended in victory for NO.

    REMAIN will win like NO, but with a smaller margin....?
    Indeed, Leave was always the exciting, anti establishment vote as Yes was in Scotland but TSE has been campaigning for Remain, so why is he campaigning for one side when in his heart he wants the other to win?

    I agree on your final conclusion and am sticking to Remain 52% Leave 48% as the final result
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,982
    Scott_P said:

    Bluffing...

    @faisalislam: Global Chairman of Japanese giant Hitachi tells the Mirror: "Brexit would force us and similar companies to rethink" UK expansion plans

    @faisalislam: Hitachi Chairman Nakanishi to the Mirror: "jobs would be lost. This is the cold economic reality of Brexit"

    Of course not bluffing. They'd be stupid if they didn't re-visit plans like that when a situation changes.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Pollsters must be praying it's knife edge after last years's fiasco otherwise they are in shreds too. Squeaky bum all round.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Casino_Royale said:

    Scott_P said:

    Bluffing...

    @faisalislam: Global Chairman of Japanese giant Hitachi tells the Mirror: "Brexit would force us and similar companies to rethink" UK expansion plans

    @faisalislam: Hitachi Chairman Nakanishi to the Mirror: "jobs would be lost. This is the cold economic reality of Brexit"

    Ah, a reboost of Project Fear again.
    I remember when Toyota said they'd quit if we didn't join the Euro...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Oh Lord, not heart versus head again.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    How can your heart say Leave is going to win when you have been canvassing for Remain?

    LEAVE has the emotional momentum, all the joy and feelz, REMAIN is boring and sad.

    But the same was true of YES in Sindyref, and that ended in victory for NO.

    REMAIN will win like NO, but with a smaller margin....?
    Indeed, Leave was always the exciting, anti establishment vote as Yes was in Scotland but TSE has been campaigning for Remain, so why is he campaigning for one side when in his heart he wants the other to win?

    I agree on your final conclusion and am sticking to Remain 52% Leave 48% as the final result
    You need to read carefully what I wrote.

    My heart thinks Leave is going to win.

    It's not my heart wants Leave to win.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    How can your heart say Leave is going to win when you have been canvassing for Remain?

    LEAVE has the emotional momentum, all the joy and feelz, REMAIN is boring and sad.

    But the same was true of YES in Sindyref, and that ended in victory for NO.

    REMAIN will win like NO, but with a smaller margin....?
    Indeed, Leave was always the exciting, anti establishment vote as Yes was in Scotland but TSE has been campaigning for Remain, so why is he campaigning for one side when in his heart he wants the other to win?

    I agree on your final conclusion and am sticking to Remain 52% Leave 48% as the final result
    Think he meant his gut not his heart
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    Remain will win with plenty to spare.

    And I sat that as an Outer.

    I wouldn't get caught up on polls.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    This week’s ORB poll sends mixed signals about voters’ thinking on the EU referendum.

    While topline figures in this week’s poll suggest the Remain campaign has improved its vote share advantage over the Leave campaign among the population as a whole since last week, among those definite to vote the opposite is true – with the Leave campaign narrowing the gap among those certain to vote.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/06/eu-referendum-leave-campaign-closes-gap-to-narrowest-margin-yet/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    MP_SE said:

    The ORB phone poll is good for Leave.

    Indeed.

    How many Yougov polls have we had in the last week?

    The danger is that people fall for their volume of output, just as they did last year.

    Average them and treat them as one.

  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    SeanT said:

    God I hate Cameron. I just do. Heath but worse. Fucking bomb this, war that, yet he was prepared to leave over some benefits?

    Detestable man.

    I cannot see these passions disappearing as soon as we vote. He is history.

    I don't hate him, I don't have hate in me, I'm just amazed and disappointed that after Blair the electorate fell for this charlatan. Still, look how Blair is viewed, Cameron will be no different, some will argue worse.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    KentRising said:

    Remain will win with plenty to spare.

    And I sat that as an Outer.

    I wouldn't get caught up on polls.

    Too many numpties who'll crap their pants on the day, bottle it, and vote for More Europe.

    Imagine how clearly Leave would win if we had a deal on the table.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    edited June 2016
    ORB has a wisdom index

    Remain 59%

    Leave 22%
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    How can your heart say Leave is going to win when you have been canvassing for Remain?

    LEAVE has the emotional momentum, all the joy and feelz, REMAIN is boring and sad.

    But the same was true of YES in Sindyref, and that ended in victory for NO.

    REMAIN will win like NO, but with a smaller margin....?
    Indeed, Leave was always the exciting, anti establishment vote as Yes was in Scotland but TSE has been campaigning for Remain, so why is he campaigning for one side when in his heart he wants the other to win?

    I agree on your final conclusion and am sticking to Remain 52% Leave 48% as the final result
    You need to read carefully what I wrote.

    My heart thinks Leave is going to win.

    It's not my heart wants Leave to win.
    Does your heart often think?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    OMG, that Remain MPs story is on front-pages

    :smiley:
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,254
    PlatoSaid said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Scott_P said:

    Bluffing...

    @faisalislam: Global Chairman of Japanese giant Hitachi tells the Mirror: "Brexit would force us and similar companies to rethink" UK expansion plans

    @faisalislam: Hitachi Chairman Nakanishi to the Mirror: "jobs would be lost. This is the cold economic reality of Brexit"

    Ah, a reboost of Project Fear again.
    I remember when Toyota said they'd quit if we didn't join the Euro...
    They were going to quit if Britain left the ERM.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    welshowl said:

    Pollsters must be praying it's knife edge after last years's fiasco otherwise they are in shreds too. Squeaky bum all round.

    To be honest, they've all been fiddling with their methodology more often than a one year boy does with his penis when having his nappy changed.

    It's no wonder everyone is herding.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,062
    The only thing to have possibly changed the narrative happened after this poll. Surprisingly it was the intervention of John Major. I thought his intervention left Boris diminished and so powerful was his denunciation I thought he might actually shift the narrative. It doesn't explain the yo-yo-ing Yougov though. It was the shot in the arm Remain needed. Hesseltine was also good.

  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    What does Hitachi make in the UK, or Europe for that matter?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fpt

    williamglenn said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Goodnight all. I think my wife is getting fed up with me being on a smartphone

    I'm hooked to an Oculus Rift for the totally immersive pb experience
    Have you tried a Hololens? AR is where it's at.
    I have, Satya Nadella showed me it two weeks ago when he was in London.
    It has terrible field of vision...
    True. But the experience is truly incredible.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    PAW said:

    What does Hitachi make in the UK, or Europe for that matter?

    Tellies ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

    I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

    http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/organise

    FYI - If you meet any Remain/DKs, don't call them Traitors, Quisling pigs, that sort of stuff.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,062
    SeanT said:

    God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

    I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

    Try Grouchos.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    edited June 2016
    Roger said:

    The only thing to have possibly changed the narrative happened after this poll. Surprisingly it was the intervention of John Major. I thought his intervention left Boris diminished and so powerful was his denunciation I thought he might actually shift the narrative. It doesn't explain the yo-yo-ing Yougov though. It was the shot in the arm Remain needed. Hesseltine was also good.

    Do you really think peole are really sitting at home changing their opinions on John Major's interventions? :smiley:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,872
    Referendum dead heat. What rules apply?

    It wasn't supposed to be like this. Wonderful.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    I wonder how many postal votes have been returned already just when leave was peaking
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    So that's two phone polls showing it as a statistical tie?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    edited June 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fpt

    williamglenn said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Goodnight all. I think my wife is getting fed up with me being on a smartphone

    I'm hooked to an Oculus Rift for the totally immersive pb experience
    Have you tried a Hololens? AR is where it's at.
    I have, Satya Nadella showed me it two weeks ago when he was in London.
    It has terrible field of vision...
    True. But the experience is truly incredible.
    They will get there & more confident about it in the future than VR, but not this iteration...I will be interested if magic leap do it better. Know of some people who work there & heard very very strict NDA, so other than public demos don't know how good their solution is. People keep giving barrow loads of money so they are managing to impress somebody.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    SeanT said:

    God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

    I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

    Are you coming on Wednesday, Sean?

    (Charles, I've invited you too.)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,795
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ORB has a wisdom index

    Remain 59%

    Leave 22%

    WISDOM. INDICES. DO. NOT. COUNT.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,254
    MikeL said:

    What are the dates for ORB?

    Does YouGov reflect Major intervention?

    It was looking very, very good for Leave until this YouGov.

    Has Major turned the tide? Remember Major stopped Brown calling a 2007 GE - and thus allowed Cameron to become PM. Is he now going to save him again?

    Brown stopped himself calling an election in 2007 by losing his bottle or more correctly never having any bottle in the first place.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    edited June 2016
    PAW said:

    What does Hitachi make in the UK, or Europe for that matter?

    TVs, home ent, Aircon, and industrial tools.

    Edit and I think personal finance
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    SeanT said:

    God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

    I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

    You should. I was out and about leafletting at the weekend.

    Not over yet.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Today is the 72nd anniversary of D-Day:
    https://twitter.com/UKIPSloughWind/status/739912765645590528
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    SeanT said:

    God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

    I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

    Go around spray painting JUNCKER Sucks! on every car you can find?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,982
    Night all.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    DanSmith said:

    So that's two phone polls showing it as a statistical tie?

    No, one phone poll and one online poll
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    PAW said:

    What does Hitachi make in the UK, or Europe for that matter?

    They have more than 500,000 employees worldwide, and - iirc - own Westinghouse, the nuclear company with quite a big Uk operation.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DanSmith said:

    So that's two phone polls showing it as a statistical tie?

    No, one phone poll and one online poll
    I think he's talking about ICM
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,257
    edited June 2016
    blackburn63 said:

    SeanT said:

    God I hate Cameron. I just do. Heath but worse. Fucking bomb this, war that, yet he was prepared to leave over some benefits?

    Detestable man.

    I cannot see these passions disappearing as soon as we vote. He is history.

    I don't hate him, I don't have hate in me, I'm just amazed and disappointed that after Blair the electorate fell for this charlatan. Still, look how Blair is viewed, Cameron will be no different, some will argue worse.
    Reg Keys drama an hour and a half on primetime BBC1 tonight, with Chilcot coming up soon and Cameron likely scraping an EU ref victory by his fingernails or even losing it not a good summer for either
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    viewcode said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ORB has a wisdom index

    Remain 59%

    Leave 22%

    WISDOM. INDICES. DO. NOT. COUNT.
    I'm hopefully going to have a guest piece in the next few days on how accurate Wisdom Indexes are. Hint, usually very well.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Neil vs Benn

    http://order-order.com/2016/06/06/hilary-benn-uncontrolled-immigration-part-of-the-deal-of-voting-remain/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DanSmith said:

    So that's two phone polls showing it as a statistical tie?

    No, one phone poll and one online poll
    I think he's talking about ICM
    The ICM was an online poll too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,257
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    How can your heart say Leave is going to win when you have been canvassing for Remain?

    LEAVE has the emotional momentum, all the joy and feelz, REMAIN is boring and sad.

    But the same was true of YES in Sindyref, and that ended in victory for NO.

    REMAIN will win like NO, but with a smaller margin....?
    Indeed, Leave was always the exciting, anti establishment vote as Yes was in Scotland but TSE has been campaigning for Remain, so why is he campaigning for one side when in his heart he wants the other to win?

    I agree on your final conclusion and am sticking to Remain 52% Leave 48% as the final result
    You need to read carefully what I wrote.

    My heart thinks Leave is going to win.

    It's not my heart wants Leave to win.
    Your heart is supposed to be the emotional organ, the head the rational one
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

    I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

    Are you coming on Wednesday, Sean?

    (Charles, I've invited you too.)
    I forgot what we doing? Where and when?

    I'm in a bit of a weird mood - perinatal depression surrounding my new book (always get it) - so bear with me if I am on gin at 9am
    Crowdscores shareholder event. 4pm.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    edited June 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    and - iirc - own Westinghouse, the nuclear company with quite a big Uk operation.

    I think that's Toshiba. But Hitachi do a lot of nuclear things.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    PAW said:

    What does Hitachi make in the UK, or Europe for that matter?

    Trains. All aboard.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DanSmith said:

    So that's two phone polls showing it as a statistical tie?

    No, one phone poll and one online poll
    I think he's talking about ICM
    The ICM was an online poll too.
    The ICM 50:50 last week wasn't
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

    I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

    http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/organise

    FYI - If you meet any Remain/DKs, don't call them Traitors, Quisling pigs, that sort of stuff.
    I have canvassed before, darling. For Mebyon Kernow and then Cornish indy. I rather enjoyed it - and I helped my pal, the Truro council candidate, to a historic victory over the Lib Dems.
    I love canvassing, it gives me the horn.*

    Remember when Cameron used to give you the horn?

    *It doesn't, honest.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    edmundintokyo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    and - iirc - own Westinghouse, the nuclear company with quite a big Uk operation.

    I think that's Toshiba. But Hitachi do a lot of nuclear things.
    Oops, you're right. I've got my large Japanese industrial conglomerates mixed up.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DanSmith said:

    So that's two phone polls showing it as a statistical tie?

    No, one phone poll and one online poll
    I think he's talking about ICM
    The ICM was an online poll too.
    The ICM 50:50 last week wasn't
    52:48
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    kjohnw said:

    I wonder how many postal votes have been returned already just when leave was peaking

    Leave need to peak on the day when 80% of the votes are cast as well.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    HYUFD said:

    blackburn63 said:

    SeanT said:

    God I hate Cameron. I just do. Heath but worse. Fucking bomb this, war that, yet he was prepared to leave over some benefits?

    Detestable man.

    I cannot see these passions disappearing as soon as we vote. He is history.

    I don't hate him, I don't have hate in me, I'm just amazed and disappointed that after Blair the electorate fell for this charlatan. Still, look how Blair is viewed, Cameron will be no different, some will argue worse.
    Reg Keys drama an hour and a half on primetime BBC1 tonight, with Chilcot coming up soon and Cameron likely scraping an EU ref victory by his fingernails not a good summer for either
    Perhaps supporters of either could point out the differences between the two.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,254
    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    The only thing to have possibly changed the narrative happened after this poll. Surprisingly it was the intervention of John Major. I thought his intervention left Boris diminished and so powerful was his denunciation I thought he might actually shift the narrative. It doesn't explain the yo-yo-ing Yougov though. It was the shot in the arm Remain needed. Hesseltine was also good.

    Do you really think peole are really sitting at home changing their opinions on John Major's interventions? :smiley:
    Indeed.

    The idea that the thoughts of clapped out politicians from decades in the past have an effect one way or another is bizarre.

    Most people haven't a clue who current politicians are.

    We all reside too much here in a PB bubble.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ORB has a wisdom index

    Remain 59%

    Leave 22%

    That's the killer.

    Shows, deep down, what's going to happen.

    ie People think that people will go Remain at the crunch.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,062
    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    The only thing to have possibly changed the narrative happened after this poll. Surprisingly it was the intervention of John Major. I thought his intervention left Boris diminished and so powerful was his denunciation I thought he might actually shift the narrative. It doesn't explain the yo-yo-ing Yougov though. It was the shot in the arm Remain needed. Hesseltine was also good.

    Do you really think peole are really sitting at home changing their opinions on John Major's interventions? :smiley:
    Not at all. I've been deliberately only half following the news but from morning till night i kept hearing about these broadsides aimed at Boris and I'm sure it struck a chord.

    Though I've got no time for either of them I thought he got Boris spot on and he sounded like an honest broker
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

    Certain to vote:

    REMAIN 48 (-3)
    LEAVE 47 (+1)

    All adults:

    REMAIN 52 (+1)
    LEAVE 40 (-2)
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DanSmith said:

    So that's two phone polls showing it as a statistical tie?

    No, one phone poll and one online poll
    I think he's talking about ICM
    The ICM was an online poll too.
    The ICM 50:50 last week wasn't
    52:48
    Close enough. Point being phone polls look to have shifted.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    How can your heart say Leave is going to win when you have been canvassing for Remain?

    LEAVE has the emotional momentum, all the joy and feelz, REMAIN is boring and sad.

    But the same was true of YES in Sindyref, and that ended in victory for NO.

    REMAIN will win like NO, but with a smaller margin....?
    Indeed, Leave was always the exciting, anti establishment vote as Yes was in Scotland but TSE has been campaigning for Remain, so why is he campaigning for one side when in his heart he wants the other to win?

    I agree on your final conclusion and am sticking to Remain 52% Leave 48% as the final result
    You need to read carefully what I wrote.

    My heart thinks Leave is going to win.

    It's not my heart wants Leave to win.
    Your heart is supposed to be the emotional organ, the head the rational one
    I can tell you about an irrational organ..
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

    I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

    Are you coming on Wednesday, Sean?

    (Charles, I've invited you too.)
    I forgot what we doing? Where and when?

    I'm in a bit of a weird mood - perinatal depression surrounding my new book (always get it) - so bear with me if I am on gin at 9am
    Crowdscores shareholder event. 4pm.
    Will there be gin?
    Only campari due to the large number of EU immigrants working at the company.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

    Certain to vote:

    REMAIN 48 (-3)
    LEAVE 47 (+1)

    All adults:

    REMAIN 52 (+1)
    LEAVE 40 (-2)

    Thats a huge difference.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    PAW said:

    What does Hitachi make in the UK, or Europe for that matter?

    They're opening a train making facility in the north east.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    DanSmith said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DanSmith said:

    So that's two phone polls showing it as a statistical tie?

    No, one phone poll and one online poll
    I think he's talking about ICM
    The ICM was an online poll too.
    The ICM 50:50 last week wasn't
    52:48
    Close enough. Point being phone polls look to have shifted.
    Alas we're not getting another phone poll until next week.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    I find I have stopped buying European, only was treats and wine, not very much.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Have we seen peak Leave?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

    I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

    Are you coming on Wednesday, Sean?

    (Charles, I've invited you too.)
    I'd love to come- whats the plan if we leave? Trading arrangements, immigration?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    Hitachi are making HS2 trains right?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

    Certain to vote:

    REMAIN 48 (-3)
    LEAVE 47 (+1)

    All adults:

    REMAIN 52 (+1)
    LEAVE 40 (-2)

    That's an almost unbelievable difference.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

    Certain to vote:

    REMAIN 48 (-3)
    LEAVE 47 (+1)

    All adults:

    REMAIN 52 (+1)
    LEAVE 40 (-2)

    Thats a huge difference.
    One of the reasons I'm confident* of a comfortable remain victory was because someone who knows political campaigning pointed out a few weeks ago, 10/10 certain to voters aren't the only ones who vote. You need to start remember the 6/10 onwards too.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

    Certain to vote:

    REMAIN 48 (-3)
    LEAVE 47 (+1)

    All adults:

    REMAIN 52 (+1)
    LEAVE 40 (-2)

    Thats a huge difference.
    All adults? What about non adults ie those who can't vote.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    MikeK said:

    Today is the 72nd anniversary of D-Day:
    https://twitter.com/UKIPSloughWind/status/739912765645590528

    He's got a point,first thing of any government is to protect it's people,how can you do that with open borders.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    On topic observation. It's all going to come down to turnout. yes, I know that's kind-of obvious but just look at the difference between ORB's 'all voters' score of a 12-pt lead for Remain, and their 'certain to vote' gap of just 1 point.

    Two and a half weeks out, I'm not getting any great sense of national enthusiasm and I wouldn't be surprised to see a sub-60% turnout, which is tilting me towards thinking that Leave will do it.

    But then I usually get pessimistic and thought that Miliband would be PM after the last election.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    nunu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

    I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

    Are you coming on Wednesday, Sean?

    (Charles, I've invited you too.)
    I'd love to come- whats the plan if we leave? Trading arrangements, immigration?
    Sadly, this is an event for CrowdScores shareholders only
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    Toms said:

    To repeat: I think I'm having a sort of bipolar sensation having just put up a Labour Party "Remain" sign. Maybe I should go DIY instead.

    Yes I'm aware of those. They also double as a Labour Party "If You Support Leave Labour Have Given Up On Seeking Your Vote So Bugger Off And Vote For Some Other Party In Future" sign.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    edited June 2016
    Off topic, does anyone know any pre-Anglo Saxon English (British)? I'm thinking of tackling a full-length novel, which involves someone who's been in suspended animation for 1500 years emerging into today's world and as such, he'd not be speaking our current tongue (or even Old English).

    For simplicity's sake, he'll learn quickly.

    I was thinking of cobbling something together that sounded a bit Welsh or Cornish but it'd be nice to be authentic if possible.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

    Certain to vote:

    REMAIN 48 (-3)
    LEAVE 47 (+1)

    All adults:

    REMAIN 52 (+1)
    LEAVE 40 (-2)

    Thats a huge difference.
    One of the reasons I'm confident* of a comfortable remain victory was because someone who knows political campaigning pointed out a few weeks ago, 10/10 certain to voters aren't the only ones who vote. You need to start remember the 6/10 onwards too.
    Is that right? Because typically I thought the proportion who say 10/10 certain equates roughly the same as the proportion who do vote. I'm sure there must be some 10/10 who don't vote, but a lot more 6/10 who don't.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,795
    OUT said:

    PAW said:

    What does Hitachi make in the UK, or Europe for that matter?

    Trains. All aboard.
    Sunil! Where were you?!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,257
    david_herdson said:

    On topic observation. It's all going to come down to turnout. yes, I know that's kind-of obvious but just look at the difference between ORB's 'all voters' score of a 12-pt lead for Remain, and their 'certain to vote' gap of just 1 point.

    Two and a half weeks out, I'm not getting any great sense of national enthusiasm and I wouldn't be surprised to see a sub-60% turnout, which is tilting me towards thinking that Leave will do it.

    But then I usually get pessimistic and thought that Miliband would be PM after the last election.

    Opinium had more people certain to vote in EUref than at the next general election, it could well go over 70%
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

    I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

    Are you coming on Wednesday, Sean?

    (Charles, I've invited you too.)
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

    I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

    Are you coming on Wednesday, Sean?

    (Charles, I've invited you too.)
    Thanks - will check calendar tomorrow
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

    Certain to vote:

    REMAIN 48 (-3)
    LEAVE 47 (+1)

    All adults:

    REMAIN 52 (+1)
    LEAVE 40 (-2)

    That's an almost unbelievable difference.
    Yes we should write ORB off as unreliable.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited June 2016
    david_herdson said:

    Off topic, does anyone know any pre-Anglo Saxon English (British)? I'm thinking of tackling a full-length novel, which involves someone who's been in suspended animation for 1500 years emerging into today's world and as such, he'd not be speaking our current tongue (or even Old English).

    For simplicity's sake, he'll learn quickly.

    I was thinking of cobbling something together that sounded a bit Welsh or Cornish but it'd be nice to be authentic if possible.

    Beowulf?

    Combine that with some original Chaucer and you'll have them fooled.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    Newsnight: "Remain people are asking why Cameron isn't talking about immigration." Because he hasn't got a leg to stand on.

    "Why isn't Cameron talking about the restrictions on EU citizens claiming benefits?"
    Because people don't care about benefits; they care about the numbers.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,795
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

    I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

    http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/organise

    FYI - If you meet any Remain/DKs, don't call them Traitors, Quisling pigs, that sort of stuff.
    I have canvassed before, darling. For Mebyon Kernow and then Cornish indy. I rather enjoyed it - and I helped my pal, the Truro council candidate, to a historic victory over the Lib Dems.
    I love canvassing, it gives me the horn.*

    Remember when Cameron used to give you the horn?

    *It doesn't, honest.
    I'm not sure Cameron EVER gave me the horn. In fact he never did. He was gaylording ponceyboots from the start - and God, how right I was, the nasty little toff.

    What gave me the horn was brutal Tory cuts and whimpering working class people, but frankly, since I started dating younger ladies from the lower orders, even that doesn't do it for me any more. I share their plight, and have to fund their student loans.

    The only joy I have these days comes from champagne, spanking and fine native oysters.
    Why would you want to spank a drunk oyster?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Philip_Thompson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

    Certain to vote:

    REMAIN 48 (-3)
    LEAVE 47 (+1)

    All adults:

    REMAIN 52 (+1)
    LEAVE 40 (-2)

    Thats a huge difference.
    One of the reasons I'm confident* of a comfortable remain victory was because someone who knows political campaigning pointed out a few weeks ago, 10/10 certain to voters aren't the only ones who vote. You need to start remember the 6/10 onwards too.
    Is that right? Because typically I thought the proportion who say 10/10 certain equates roughly the same as the proportion who do vote. I'm sure there must be some 10/10 who don't vote, but a lot more 6/10 who don't.
    The logic is that the 6/10 to 9/10 are where the DKs are who do vote.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,257
    blackburn63 said:

    HYUFD said:

    blackburn63 said:

    SeanT said:

    God I hate Cameron. I just do. Heath but worse. Fucking bomb this, war that, yet he was prepared to leave over some benefits?

    Detestable man.

    I cannot see these passions disappearing as soon as we vote. He is history.

    I don't hate him, I don't have hate in me, I'm just amazed and disappointed that after Blair the electorate fell for this charlatan. Still, look how Blair is viewed, Cameron will be no different, some will argue worse.
    Reg Keys drama an hour and a half on primetime BBC1 tonight, with Chilcot coming up soon and Cameron likely scraping an EU ref victory by his fingernails not a good summer for either
    Perhaps supporters of either could point out the differences between the two.
    Blair ended up more popular with Tory voters than Labour voters, Cameron with LD voters than Tories?
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

    Certain to vote:

    REMAIN 48 (-3)
    LEAVE 47 (+1)

    All adults:

    REMAIN 52 (+1)
    LEAVE 40 (-2)

    Thats a huge difference.
    One of the reasons I'm confident* of a comfortable remain victory was because someone who knows political campaigning pointed out a few weeks ago, 10/10 certain to voters aren't the only ones who vote. You need to start remember the 6/10 onwards too.
    Yeah, truth is somewhere in the middle innit? Safe to assume the 1/10s won't vote in big numbers, probably wise to include anyone over 5/10.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    BBC News is a party political broadcast for Remain.

    Shocking stuff.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    HYUFD said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic observation. It's all going to come down to turnout. yes, I know that's kind-of obvious but just look at the difference between ORB's 'all voters' score of a 12-pt lead for Remain, and their 'certain to vote' gap of just 1 point.

    Two and a half weeks out, I'm not getting any great sense of national enthusiasm and I wouldn't be surprised to see a sub-60% turnout, which is tilting me towards thinking that Leave will do it.

    But then I usually get pessimistic and thought that Miliband would be PM after the last election.

    Opinium had more people certain to vote in EUref than at the next general election, it could well go over 70%
    The question is how many people did they have to vote at the last general election (I'll go and check now).
This discussion has been closed.

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