politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s EURef polling gives contradictory trends, but bot

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s EURef polling gives contradictory trends, but both have Remain ahead

I’m finding all of this very confusing, head says Remain are going to win this, heart says Leave is going to win. Just imagine what David Cameron is feeling right now.

Read the full story here

HYUFD

How can your heart say Leave is going to win when you have been canvassing for Remain?

FrancisUrquhart

Second like remain, no leave, no remain, who.knows..

MikeL

What are the dates for ORB?

Does YouGov reflect Major intervention?

It was looking very, very good for Leave until this YouGov.

Has Major turned the tide? Remember Major stopped Brown calling a 2007 GE - and thus allowed Cameron to become PM. Is he now going to save him again?

rcs1000

Fpt

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Goodnight all. I think my wife is getting fed up with me being on a smartphone

I'm hooked to an Oculus Rift for the totally immersive pb experience

Have you tried a Hololens? AR is where it's at.

I have, Satya Nadella showed me it two weeks ago when he was in London.

MP_SE

The ORB phone poll is good for Leave.

FrancisUrquhart

rcs1000 said:

Fpt

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Goodnight all. I think my wife is getting fed up with me being on a smartphone

I'm hooked to an Oculus Rift for the totally immersive pb experience

Have you tried a Hololens? AR is where it's at.

I have, Satya Nadella showed me it two weeks ago when he was in London.

It has terrible field of vision...

Scott_P

Bluffing...

@faisalislam: Global Chairman of Japanese giant Hitachi tells the Mirror: "Brexit would force us and similar companies to rethink" UK expansion plans

@faisalislam: Hitachi Chairman Nakanishi to the Mirror: "jobs would be lost. This is the cold economic reality of Brexit"

Richard_Tyndall

After this week can we say that it appears the Online polls have won the battle (if not the war) with the phone polls showing quite dramatic convergence towards the online position?

blackburn63

Just imagine what David Cameron is feeling right now.

Oh I can, and I'm enjoying it. He's fucked, the referendum is irrelevant, don't say I never told you so.

Casino_Royale

Scott_P said:

Bluffing...

@faisalislam: Global Chairman of Japanese giant Hitachi tells the Mirror: "Brexit would force us and similar companies to rethink" UK expansion plans

@faisalislam: Hitachi Chairman Nakanishi to the Mirror: "jobs would be lost. This is the cold economic reality of Brexit"

Ah, a reboost of Project Fear again.

TheScreamingEagles

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

How can your heart say Leave is going to win when you have been canvassing for Remain?

LEAVE has the emotional momentum, all the joy and feelz, REMAIN is boring and sad.

But the same was true of YES in Sindyref, and that ended in victory for NO.

REMAIN will win like NO, but with a smaller margin....?

Canvassing, it appears committed Leavers are more motivated, immigration really boils their piss.

However, I can see the economic certainty really pushing DKs to Remain.

I've been canvassing in Sheffield, but this week, I'll be canvassing in West Yorkshire which is more right wing than South Yorkshire, I'll have a better feel of who is going to win.

My canvassing experiences are in line for a Remain victory.

Toms

To repeat: I think I'm having a sort of bipolar sensation having just put up a Labour Party "Remain" sign. Maybe I should go DIY instead.

HYUFD

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

How can your heart say Leave is going to win when you have been canvassing for Remain?

LEAVE has the emotional momentum, all the joy and feelz, REMAIN is boring and sad.

But the same was true of YES in Sindyref, and that ended in victory for NO.

REMAIN will win like NO, but with a smaller margin....?

Indeed, Leave was always the exciting, anti establishment vote as Yes was in Scotland but TSE has been campaigning for Remain, so why is he campaigning for one side when in his heart he wants the other to win?

I agree on your final conclusion and am sticking to Remain 52% Leave 48% as the final result

AnneJGP

Scott_P said:

Bluffing...

@faisalislam: Global Chairman of Japanese giant Hitachi tells the Mirror: "Brexit would force us and similar companies to rethink" UK expansion plans

@faisalislam: Hitachi Chairman Nakanishi to the Mirror: "jobs would be lost. This is the cold economic reality of Brexit"

Of course not bluffing. They'd be stupid if they didn't re-visit plans like that when a situation changes.

welshowl

Pollsters must be praying it's knife edge after last years's fiasco otherwise they are in shreds too. Squeaky bum all round.

PlatoSaid

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

Bluffing...

@faisalislam: Global Chairman of Japanese giant Hitachi tells the Mirror: "Brexit would force us and similar companies to rethink" UK expansion plans

@faisalislam: Hitachi Chairman Nakanishi to the Mirror: "jobs would be lost. This is the cold economic reality of Brexit"

Ah, a reboost of Project Fear again.

I remember when Toyota said they'd quit if we didn't join the Euro...

Casino_Royale

Oh Lord, not heart versus head again.

TheScreamingEagles

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

How can your heart say Leave is going to win when you have been canvassing for Remain?

LEAVE has the emotional momentum, all the joy and feelz, REMAIN is boring and sad.

But the same was true of YES in Sindyref, and that ended in victory for NO.

REMAIN will win like NO, but with a smaller margin....?

Indeed, Leave was always the exciting, anti establishment vote as Yes was in Scotland but TSE has been campaigning for Remain, so why is he campaigning for one side when in his heart he wants the other to win?

I agree on your final conclusion and am sticking to Remain 52% Leave 48% as the final result

You need to read carefully what I wrote.

My heart thinks Leave is going to win.

It's not my heart wants Leave to win.

Charles

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

How can your heart say Leave is going to win when you have been canvassing for Remain?

LEAVE has the emotional momentum, all the joy and feelz, REMAIN is boring and sad.

But the same was true of YES in Sindyref, and that ended in victory for NO.

REMAIN will win like NO, but with a smaller margin....?

Indeed, Leave was always the exciting, anti establishment vote as Yes was in Scotland but TSE has been campaigning for Remain, so why is he campaigning for one side when in his heart he wants the other to win?

I agree on your final conclusion and am sticking to Remain 52% Leave 48% as the final result

Think he meant his gut not his heart

KentRising

Remain will win with plenty to spare.

And I sat that as an Outer.

I wouldn't get caught up on polls.

TheScreamingEagles

This week’s ORB poll sends mixed signals about voters’ thinking on the EU referendum.

While topline figures in this week’s poll suggest the Remain campaign has improved its vote share advantage over the Leave campaign among the population as a whole since last week, among those definite to vote the opposite is true – with the Leave campaign narrowing the gap among those certain to vote.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/06/eu-referendum-leave-campaign-closes-gap-to-narrowest-margin-yet/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

chestnut

MP_SE said:

The ORB phone poll is good for Leave.

Indeed.

How many Yougov polls have we had in the last week?

The danger is that people fall for their volume of output, just as they did last year.

Average them and treat them as one.

blackburn63

SeanT said:

God I hate Cameron. I just do. Heath but worse. Fucking bomb this, war that, yet he was prepared to leave over some benefits?

Detestable man.

I cannot see these passions disappearing as soon as we vote. He is history.

I don't hate him, I don't have hate in me, I'm just amazed and disappointed that after Blair the electorate fell for this charlatan. Still, look how Blair is viewed, Cameron will be no different, some will argue worse.

Casino_Royale

KentRising said:

Remain will win with plenty to spare.

And I sat that as an Outer.

I wouldn't get caught up on polls.

Too many numpties who'll crap their pants on the day, bottle it, and vote for More Europe.

Imagine how clearly Leave would win if we had a deal on the table.

TheScreamingEagles

ORB has a wisdom index

Remain 59%

Leave 22%

blackburn63

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

How can your heart say Leave is going to win when you have been canvassing for Remain?

LEAVE has the emotional momentum, all the joy and feelz, REMAIN is boring and sad.

But the same was true of YES in Sindyref, and that ended in victory for NO.

REMAIN will win like NO, but with a smaller margin....?

Indeed, Leave was always the exciting, anti establishment vote as Yes was in Scotland but TSE has been campaigning for Remain, so why is he campaigning for one side when in his heart he wants the other to win?

I agree on your final conclusion and am sticking to Remain 52% Leave 48% as the final result

You need to read carefully what I wrote.

My heart thinks Leave is going to win.

It's not my heart wants Leave to win.

Does your heart often think?

PlatoSaid

OMG, that Remain MPs story is on front-pages

another_richard

PlatoSaid said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

Bluffing...

@faisalislam: Global Chairman of Japanese giant Hitachi tells the Mirror: "Brexit would force us and similar companies to rethink" UK expansion plans

@faisalislam: Hitachi Chairman Nakanishi to the Mirror: "jobs would be lost. This is the cold economic reality of Brexit"

Ah, a reboost of Project Fear again.

I remember when Toyota said they'd quit if we didn't join the Euro...

They were going to quit if Britain left the ERM.

Casino_Royale

welshowl said:

Pollsters must be praying it's knife edge after last years's fiasco otherwise they are in shreds too. Squeaky bum all round.

To be honest, they've all been fiddling with their methodology more often than a one year boy does with his penis when having his nappy changed.

It's no wonder everyone is herding.

Roger

The only thing to have possibly changed the narrative happened after this poll. Surprisingly it was the intervention of John Major. I thought his intervention left Boris diminished and so powerful was his denunciation I thought he might actually shift the narrative. It doesn't explain the yo-yo-ing Yougov though. It was the shot in the arm Remain needed. Hesseltine was also good.

PAW

What does Hitachi make in the UK, or Europe for that matter?

rcs1000

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Fpt

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Goodnight all. I think my wife is getting fed up with me being on a smartphone

I'm hooked to an Oculus Rift for the totally immersive pb experience

Have you tried a Hololens? AR is where it's at.

I have, Satya Nadella showed me it two weeks ago when he was in London.

It has terrible field of vision...

True. But the experience is truly incredible.

Pulpstar

PAW said:

What does Hitachi make in the UK, or Europe for that matter?

Tellies ?

TheScreamingEagles

SeanT said:

God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/organise

FYI - If you meet any Remain/DKs, don't call them Traitors, Quisling pigs, that sort of stuff.

Roger

SeanT said:

God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

Try Grouchos.

GIN1138

Roger said:

The only thing to have possibly changed the narrative happened after this poll. Surprisingly it was the intervention of John Major. I thought his intervention left Boris diminished and so powerful was his denunciation I thought he might actually shift the narrative. It doesn't explain the yo-yo-ing Yougov though. It was the shot in the arm Remain needed. Hesseltine was also good.

Do you really think peole are really sitting at home changing their opinions on John Major's interventions?

MarqueeMark

Referendum dead heat. What rules apply?

It wasn't supposed to be like this. Wonderful.

kjohnw

I wonder how many postal votes have been returned already just when leave was peaking

DanSmith

So that's two phone polls showing it as a statistical tie?

FrancisUrquhart

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Fpt

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Goodnight all. I think my wife is getting fed up with me being on a smartphone

I'm hooked to an Oculus Rift for the totally immersive pb experience

Have you tried a Hololens? AR is where it's at.

I have, Satya Nadella showed me it two weeks ago when he was in London.

It has terrible field of vision...

True. But the experience is truly incredible.

They will get there & more confident about it in the future than VR, but not this iteration...I will be interested if magic leap do it better. Know of some people who work there & heard very very strict NDA, so other than public demos don't know how good their solution is. People keep giving barrow loads of money so they are managing to impress somebody.

rcs1000

SeanT said:

God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

Are you coming on Wednesday, Sean?

(Charles, I've invited you too.)

viewcode

TheScreamingEagles said:

ORB has a wisdom index

Remain 59%

Leave 22%

WISDOM. INDICES. DO. NOT. COUNT.

another_richard

MikeL said:

What are the dates for ORB?

Does YouGov reflect Major intervention?

It was looking very, very good for Leave until this YouGov.

Has Major turned the tide? Remember Major stopped Brown calling a 2007 GE - and thus allowed Cameron to become PM. Is he now going to save him again?

Brown stopped himself calling an election in 2007 by losing his bottle or more correctly never having any bottle in the first place.

TheScreamingEagles

PAW said:

What does Hitachi make in the UK, or Europe for that matter?

TVs, home ent, Aircon, and industrial tools.

Edit and I think personal finance

Casino_Royale

SeanT said:

God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

You should. I was out and about leafletting at the weekend.

Not over yet.

MikeK

Today is the 72nd anniversary of D-Day:
https://twitter.com/UKIPSloughWind/status/739912765645590528

Tim_B

SeanT said:

God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

Go around spray painting JUNCKER Sucks! on every car you can find?

AnneJGP

Night all.

TheScreamingEagles

DanSmith said:

So that's two phone polls showing it as a statistical tie?

No, one phone poll and one online poll

rcs1000

PAW said:

What does Hitachi make in the UK, or Europe for that matter?

They have more than 500,000 employees worldwide, and - iirc - own Westinghouse, the nuclear company with quite a big Uk operation.

rcs1000

TheScreamingEagles said:

DanSmith said:

So that's two phone polls showing it as a statistical tie?

No, one phone poll and one online poll

I think he's talking about ICM

HYUFD

blackburn63 said:

SeanT said:

God I hate Cameron. I just do. Heath but worse. Fucking bomb this, war that, yet he was prepared to leave over some benefits?

Detestable man.

I cannot see these passions disappearing as soon as we vote. He is history.

I don't hate him, I don't have hate in me, I'm just amazed and disappointed that after Blair the electorate fell for this charlatan. Still, look how Blair is viewed, Cameron will be no different, some will argue worse.

Reg Keys drama an hour and a half on primetime BBC1 tonight, with Chilcot coming up soon and Cameron likely scraping an EU ref victory by his fingernails or even losing it not a good summer for either

TheScreamingEagles

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ORB has a wisdom index

Remain 59%

Leave 22%

WISDOM. INDICES. DO. NOT. COUNT.

I'm hopefully going to have a guest piece in the next few days on how accurate Wisdom Indexes are. Hint, usually very well.

PlatoSaid

Neil vs Benn

http://order-order.com/2016/06/06/hilary-benn-uncontrolled-immigration-part-of-the-deal-of-voting-remain/

TheScreamingEagles

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DanSmith said:

So that's two phone polls showing it as a statistical tie?

No, one phone poll and one online poll

I think he's talking about ICM

The ICM was an online poll too.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

How can your heart say Leave is going to win when you have been canvassing for Remain?

LEAVE has the emotional momentum, all the joy and feelz, REMAIN is boring and sad.

But the same was true of YES in Sindyref, and that ended in victory for NO.

REMAIN will win like NO, but with a smaller margin....?

Indeed, Leave was always the exciting, anti establishment vote as Yes was in Scotland but TSE has been campaigning for Remain, so why is he campaigning for one side when in his heart he wants the other to win?

I agree on your final conclusion and am sticking to Remain 52% Leave 48% as the final result

You need to read carefully what I wrote.

My heart thinks Leave is going to win.

It's not my heart wants Leave to win.

Your heart is supposed to be the emotional organ, the head the rational one

rcs1000

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

Are you coming on Wednesday, Sean?

(Charles, I've invited you too.)

I forgot what we doing? Where and when?

I'm in a bit of a weird mood - perinatal depression surrounding my new book (always get it) - so bear with me if I am on gin at 9am

Crowdscores shareholder event. 4pm.

edmundintokyo

rcs1000 said:

and - iirc - own Westinghouse, the nuclear company with quite a big Uk operation.

I think that's Toshiba. But Hitachi do a lot of nuclear things.

OUT

PAW said:

What does Hitachi make in the UK, or Europe for that matter?

Trains. All aboard.

rcs1000

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DanSmith said:

So that's two phone polls showing it as a statistical tie?

No, one phone poll and one online poll

I think he's talking about ICM

The ICM was an online poll too.

The ICM 50:50 last week wasn't

TheScreamingEagles

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/organise

FYI - If you meet any Remain/DKs, don't call them Traitors, Quisling pigs, that sort of stuff.

I have canvassed before, darling. For Mebyon Kernow and then Cornish indy. I rather enjoyed it - and I helped my pal, the Truro council candidate, to a historic victory over the Lib Dems.

I love canvassing, it gives me the horn.*

Remember when Cameron used to give you the horn?

*It doesn't, honest.

rcs1000

edmundintokyo said:

rcs1000 said:

and - iirc - own Westinghouse, the nuclear company with quite a big Uk operation.

I think that's Toshiba. But Hitachi do a lot of nuclear things.

Oops, you're right. I've got my large Japanese industrial conglomerates mixed up.

TheScreamingEagles

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DanSmith said:

So that's two phone polls showing it as a statistical tie?

No, one phone poll and one online poll

I think he's talking about ICM

The ICM was an online poll too.

The ICM 50:50 last week wasn't

52:48

Casino_Royale

kjohnw said:

I wonder how many postal votes have been returned already just when leave was peaking

Leave need to peak on the day when 80% of the votes are cast as well.

blackburn63

HYUFD said:

blackburn63 said:

SeanT said:

God I hate Cameron. I just do. Heath but worse. Fucking bomb this, war that, yet he was prepared to leave over some benefits?

Detestable man.

I cannot see these passions disappearing as soon as we vote. He is history.

I don't hate him, I don't have hate in me, I'm just amazed and disappointed that after Blair the electorate fell for this charlatan. Still, look how Blair is viewed, Cameron will be no different, some will argue worse.

Reg Keys drama an hour and a half on primetime BBC1 tonight, with Chilcot coming up soon and Cameron likely scraping an EU ref victory by his fingernails not a good summer for either

Perhaps supporters of either could point out the differences between the two.

another_richard

GIN1138 said:

Roger said:

The only thing to have possibly changed the narrative happened after this poll. Surprisingly it was the intervention of John Major. I thought his intervention left Boris diminished and so powerful was his denunciation I thought he might actually shift the narrative. It doesn't explain the yo-yo-ing Yougov though. It was the shot in the arm Remain needed. Hesseltine was also good.

Do you really think peole are really sitting at home changing their opinions on John Major's interventions?

Indeed.

The idea that the thoughts of clapped out politicians from decades in the past have an effect one way or another is bizarre.

Most people haven't a clue who current politicians are.

We all reside too much here in a PB bubble.

MikeL

TheScreamingEagles said:

ORB has a wisdom index

Remain 59%

Leave 22%

That's the killer.

Shows, deep down, what's going to happen.

ie People think that people will go Remain at the crunch.

Roger

GIN1138 said:

Roger said:

The only thing to have possibly changed the narrative happened after this poll. Surprisingly it was the intervention of John Major. I thought his intervention left Boris diminished and so powerful was his denunciation I thought he might actually shift the narrative. It doesn't explain the yo-yo-ing Yougov though. It was the shot in the arm Remain needed. Hesseltine was also good.

Do you really think peole are really sitting at home changing their opinions on John Major's interventions?

Not at all. I've been deliberately only half following the news but from morning till night i kept hearing about these broadsides aimed at Boris and I'm sure it struck a chord.

Though I've got no time for either of them I thought he got Boris spot on and he sounded like an honest broker

TheScreamingEagles

ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

Certain to vote:

REMAIN 48 (-3)
LEAVE 47 (+1)

All adults:

REMAIN 52 (+1)
LEAVE 40 (-2)

DanSmith

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DanSmith said:

So that's two phone polls showing it as a statistical tie?

No, one phone poll and one online poll

I think he's talking about ICM

The ICM was an online poll too.

The ICM 50:50 last week wasn't

52:48

Close enough. Point being phone polls look to have shifted.

Casino_Royale

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

How can your heart say Leave is going to win when you have been canvassing for Remain?

LEAVE has the emotional momentum, all the joy and feelz, REMAIN is boring and sad.

But the same was true of YES in Sindyref, and that ended in victory for NO.

REMAIN will win like NO, but with a smaller margin....?

Indeed, Leave was always the exciting, anti establishment vote as Yes was in Scotland but TSE has been campaigning for Remain, so why is he campaigning for one side when in his heart he wants the other to win?

I agree on your final conclusion and am sticking to Remain 52% Leave 48% as the final result

You need to read carefully what I wrote.

My heart thinks Leave is going to win.

It's not my heart wants Leave to win.

Your heart is supposed to be the emotional organ, the head the rational one

I can tell you about an irrational organ..

rcs1000

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

Are you coming on Wednesday, Sean?

(Charles, I've invited you too.)

I forgot what we doing? Where and when?

I'm in a bit of a weird mood - perinatal depression surrounding my new book (always get it) - so bear with me if I am on gin at 9am

Crowdscores shareholder event. 4pm.

Will there be gin?

Only campari due to the large number of EU immigrants working at the company.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

Certain to vote:

REMAIN 48 (-3)
LEAVE 47 (+1)

All adults:

REMAIN 52 (+1)
LEAVE 40 (-2)

Thats a huge difference.

nunu

PAW said:

What does Hitachi make in the UK, or Europe for that matter?

They're opening a train making facility in the north east.

TheScreamingEagles

DanSmith said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DanSmith said:

So that's two phone polls showing it as a statistical tie?

No, one phone poll and one online poll

I think he's talking about ICM

The ICM was an online poll too.

The ICM 50:50 last week wasn't

52:48

Close enough. Point being phone polls look to have shifted.

Alas we're not getting another phone poll until next week.

PAW

I find I have stopped buying European, only was treats and wine, not very much.

Jobabob

Have we seen peak Leave?

nunu

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

Are you coming on Wednesday, Sean?

(Charles, I've invited you too.)

I'd love to come- whats the plan if we leave? Trading arrangements, immigration?

FrancisUrquhart

Hitachi are making HS2 trains right?

rcs1000

TheScreamingEagles said:

ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

Certain to vote:

REMAIN 48 (-3)
LEAVE 47 (+1)

All adults:

REMAIN 52 (+1)
LEAVE 40 (-2)

That's an almost unbelievable difference.

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

Certain to vote:

REMAIN 48 (-3)
LEAVE 47 (+1)

All adults:

REMAIN 52 (+1)
LEAVE 40 (-2)

Thats a huge difference.

One of the reasons I'm confident* of a comfortable remain victory was because someone who knows political campaigning pointed out a few weeks ago, 10/10 certain to voters aren't the only ones who vote. You need to start remember the 6/10 onwards too.

blackburn63

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

Certain to vote:

REMAIN 48 (-3)
LEAVE 47 (+1)

All adults:

REMAIN 52 (+1)
LEAVE 40 (-2)

Thats a huge difference.

All adults? What about non adults ie those who can't vote.

Tykejohnno

MikeK said:

Today is the 72nd anniversary of D-Day:
https://twitter.com/UKIPSloughWind/status/739912765645590528

He's got a point,first thing of any government is to protect it's people,how can you do that with open borders.

david_herdson

On topic observation. It's all going to come down to turnout. yes, I know that's kind-of obvious but just look at the difference between ORB's 'all voters' score of a 12-pt lead for Remain, and their 'certain to vote' gap of just 1 point.

Two and a half weeks out, I'm not getting any great sense of national enthusiasm and I wouldn't be surprised to see a sub-60% turnout, which is tilting me towards thinking that Leave will do it.

But then I usually get pessimistic and thought that Miliband would be PM after the last election.

rcs1000

nunu said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

Are you coming on Wednesday, Sean?

(Charles, I've invited you too.)

I'd love to come- whats the plan if we leave? Trading arrangements, immigration?

Sadly, this is an event for CrowdScores shareholders only

Wulfrun_Phil

Toms said:

To repeat: I think I'm having a sort of bipolar sensation having just put up a Labour Party "Remain" sign. Maybe I should go DIY instead.

Yes I'm aware of those. They also double as a Labour Party "If You Support Leave Labour Have Given Up On Seeking Your Vote So Bugger Off And Vote For Some Other Party In Future" sign.

david_herdson

Off topic, does anyone know any pre-Anglo Saxon English (British)? I'm thinking of tackling a full-length novel, which involves someone who's been in suspended animation for 1500 years emerging into today's world and as such, he'd not be speaking our current tongue (or even Old English).

For simplicity's sake, he'll learn quickly.

I was thinking of cobbling something together that sounded a bit Welsh or Cornish but it'd be nice to be authentic if possible.

Philip_Thompson

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

Certain to vote:

REMAIN 48 (-3)
LEAVE 47 (+1)

All adults:

REMAIN 52 (+1)
LEAVE 40 (-2)

Thats a huge difference.

One of the reasons I'm confident* of a comfortable remain victory was because someone who knows political campaigning pointed out a few weeks ago, 10/10 certain to voters aren't the only ones who vote. You need to start remember the 6/10 onwards too.

Is that right? Because typically I thought the proportion who say 10/10 certain equates roughly the same as the proportion who do vote. I'm sure there must be some 10/10 who don't vote, but a lot more 6/10 who don't.

viewcode

OUT said:

PAW said:

What does Hitachi make in the UK, or Europe for that matter?

Trains. All aboard.

Sunil! Where were you?!

HYUFD

david_herdson said:

On topic observation. It's all going to come down to turnout. yes, I know that's kind-of obvious but just look at the difference between ORB's 'all voters' score of a 12-pt lead for Remain, and their 'certain to vote' gap of just 1 point.

Two and a half weeks out, I'm not getting any great sense of national enthusiasm and I wouldn't be surprised to see a sub-60% turnout, which is tilting me towards thinking that Leave will do it.

But then I usually get pessimistic and thought that Miliband would be PM after the last election.

Opinium had more people certain to vote in EUref than at the next general election, it could well go over 70%

Charles

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

Are you coming on Wednesday, Sean?

(Charles, I've invited you too.)

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

Are you coming on Wednesday, Sean?

(Charles, I've invited you too.)

Thanks - will check calendar tomorrow

nunu

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

Certain to vote:

REMAIN 48 (-3)
LEAVE 47 (+1)

All adults:

REMAIN 52 (+1)
LEAVE 40 (-2)

That's an almost unbelievable difference.

Yes we should write ORB off as unreliable.

Tim_B

david_herdson said:

Off topic, does anyone know any pre-Anglo Saxon English (British)? I'm thinking of tackling a full-length novel, which involves someone who's been in suspended animation for 1500 years emerging into today's world and as such, he'd not be speaking our current tongue (or even Old English).

For simplicity's sake, he'll learn quickly.

I was thinking of cobbling something together that sounded a bit Welsh or Cornish but it'd be nice to be authentic if possible.

Beowulf?

Combine that with some original Chaucer and you'll have them fooled.

KentRising

Newsnight: "Remain people are asking why Cameron isn't talking about immigration." Because he hasn't got a leg to stand on.

"Why isn't Cameron talking about the restrictions on EU citizens claiming benefits?"
Because people don't care about benefits; they care about the numbers.

viewcode

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

God I might have to do some canvassing. I can't sit on my arse. I care too much.

I think LEAVE are going to lose but I still want to think I did my bit. How does one help out LEAVE, in London?

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/organise

FYI - If you meet any Remain/DKs, don't call them Traitors, Quisling pigs, that sort of stuff.

I have canvassed before, darling. For Mebyon Kernow and then Cornish indy. I rather enjoyed it - and I helped my pal, the Truro council candidate, to a historic victory over the Lib Dems.

I love canvassing, it gives me the horn.*

Remember when Cameron used to give you the horn?

*It doesn't, honest.

I'm not sure Cameron EVER gave me the horn. In fact he never did. He was gaylording ponceyboots from the start - and God, how right I was, the nasty little toff.

What gave me the horn was brutal Tory cuts and whimpering working class people, but frankly, since I started dating younger ladies from the lower orders, even that doesn't do it for me any more. I share their plight, and have to fund their student loans.

The only joy I have these days comes from champagne, spanking and fine native oysters.

Why would you want to spank a drunk oyster?

TheScreamingEagles

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

Certain to vote:

REMAIN 48 (-3)
LEAVE 47 (+1)

All adults:

REMAIN 52 (+1)
LEAVE 40 (-2)

Thats a huge difference.

One of the reasons I'm confident* of a comfortable remain victory was because someone who knows political campaigning pointed out a few weeks ago, 10/10 certain to voters aren't the only ones who vote. You need to start remember the 6/10 onwards too.

Is that right? Because typically I thought the proportion who say 10/10 certain equates roughly the same as the proportion who do vote. I'm sure there must be some 10/10 who don't vote, but a lot more 6/10 who don't.

The logic is that the 6/10 to 9/10 are where the DKs are who do vote.

HYUFD

blackburn63 said:

HYUFD said:

blackburn63 said:

SeanT said:

God I hate Cameron. I just do. Heath but worse. Fucking bomb this, war that, yet he was prepared to leave over some benefits?

Detestable man.

I cannot see these passions disappearing as soon as we vote. He is history.

I don't hate him, I don't have hate in me, I'm just amazed and disappointed that after Blair the electorate fell for this charlatan. Still, look how Blair is viewed, Cameron will be no different, some will argue worse.

Reg Keys drama an hour and a half on primetime BBC1 tonight, with Chilcot coming up soon and Cameron likely scraping an EU ref victory by his fingernails not a good summer for either

Perhaps supporters of either could point out the differences between the two.

Blair ended up more popular with Tory voters than Labour voters, Cameron with LD voters than Tories?

DanSmith

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ORB/Telegraph (#EUref)

Certain to vote:

REMAIN 48 (-3)
LEAVE 47 (+1)

All adults:

REMAIN 52 (+1)
LEAVE 40 (-2)

Thats a huge difference.

One of the reasons I'm confident* of a comfortable remain victory was because someone who knows political campaigning pointed out a few weeks ago, 10/10 certain to voters aren't the only ones who vote. You need to start remember the 6/10 onwards too.

Yeah, truth is somewhere in the middle innit? Safe to assume the 1/10s won't vote in big numbers, probably wise to include anyone over 5/10.

chestnut

BBC News is a party political broadcast for Remain.

Shocking stuff.

david_herdson

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

On topic observation. It's all going to come down to turnout. yes, I know that's kind-of obvious but just look at the difference between ORB's 'all voters' score of a 12-pt lead for Remain, and their 'certain to vote' gap of just 1 point.

Two and a half weeks out, I'm not getting any great sense of national enthusiasm and I wouldn't be surprised to see a sub-60% turnout, which is tilting me towards thinking that Leave will do it.

But then I usually get pessimistic and thought that Miliband would be PM after the last election.

Opinium had more people certain to vote in EUref than at the next general election, it could well go over 70%

The question is how many people did they have to vote at the last general election (I'll go and check now).