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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s EURef polling gives contradictory trends, but bot

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    edited June 2016
    fitalass said:

    MikeL said:

    I think Sir John Major's intervention has been crucial.His statement on the NHS hit home with people of all parties.I see no harm in Jeremy Corbyn campaigning for the NHS alongside Sir John on this matter.He proved the point that the decent Tory does exist.
    Best wishes to Bernie tonight.I think he will win California.Are you feeling it? #FeelTheBern

    Absolutely right.

    Of course there's lots of knockabout banter that nobody cares about Major - he's old, boring, grey etc etc.

    But fact is he is a former PM who is seen as middle of the road, cautious, understated, respected and he carries weight.

    He will have an influence. He's probably Remain's most effective campaigner.

    People may dismiss it now but his intervention in 2007 had a massive influence - Cameron would not be PM without him.
    MikeL, absolutely bang on the money with that comment!
    If you were one of the thousands of home owners thrown to the wolves by Major on 14th September 1992 you wouldn't think too much to him.

    Yes, he did win against all odds in 1992 but he's always had a fatal flaw which is his obsession and passionate devotion to the European project.

    Thus, when push came to shove on that fateful day in 1992 and he had the choice between leaving the ERM and destroying thousands of middle class home owners - Maggie's children - To stay in the ERM, we know he chose the later.

    His priority have never, ever been the safety and security of the people here but his devotion to the European dream...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855

    Off topic, does anyone know any pre-Anglo Saxon English (British)? I'm thinking of tackling a full-length novel, which involves someone who's been in suspended animation for 1500 years emerging into today's world and as such, he'd not be speaking our current tongue (or even Old English).

    For simplicity's sake, he'll learn quickly.

    I was thinking of cobbling something together that sounded a bit Welsh or Cornish but it'd be nice to be authentic if possible.

    A good old fish out of water tale, eh? I do like those. Reminds me of historical people interacting with futuristic technology in The high crusade by Paul Anderson, with Medieval English knights using their wits to defeat an alien scouting party, take over a ufo and collapse an alien empire, converting them to Christianity, despite thinking they were demons at first. A very entertaining read.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    edited June 2016

    GIN1138 said:

    Granny Update:

    My 91 year old grandmother is STILL undecided but... I think she's edging towards REMAIN!

    Unlike another poster on here a few days ago I won't try and stop her from getting to the polling station! ;)

    Good man. Regardless of their intention, if anyone asked me to help them get to the voting station, or help arranging their postal vote, I'd do it.

    Democracy is good, the higher the turnout, the better it is for people accept it.
    If I tried to stop her she'd wallop me with her walking stick to fair... :smiley:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,432
    Mortimer said:

    Leave really fucked up with their choice.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/739941544820609024

    So when you went canvassing at the GE and people asked what would the Tories do about immigration,your answer was ?

    Hope you didn't go down your parties policy on it or Fake Dave's of cutting immigration,wouldn't that mean you were lying after we find out this government and remain thinks mass immigration is a price worth paying.
    I was commendably honest, I told them I was the wrong person to talk about reducing immigration, I said I was in favour of immigration, and the stats show immigrants as whole make a net contribution to the country.

    I pointed out the Ipsos Mori polling on perceptions, and there's not as many immigrants as people think there.
    Do the stats really point that? (Genuine question)

    As fas as I thought, there is a net fiscal contribution (i.e. immigrant workers pay more tax than is paid out in benefits by immigrant workers/non workers), but not an entirely net positive contribution (i.e. immigrant workers pay less in tax than the benefits accrued by all immigrants in terms of public service receipt). Given almost everyone I know is not a net positive contributor to the treasury - basically everyone with kids is a net recipient - I just cannot see how it can be anything else.
    It is, what you have to understand is a lot immigrants to the UK are high earners, think Doctors and City financiers, their salary levels are at levels where things like child allowance and tax credits aren't paid.

    I think Alastair posted a link recently that confirms that, I'll try and find it in the morning.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:

    fitalass said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sam Coates
    No10 think they will win #euref cos of this poll finding: ppl want free trade more than immigration clampdown (just) https://t.co/vi2srEtqPT

    I think they are clutching at straws. Just like everyone else.
    No one knows anything.

    There are a lot of people who feel disenfranchised who are going to come out for Leave, and who are motivated, and are probably being downweighted because they don't normally vote.

    But there are also lots of people who probably slightly prefer Remain, who may or may not vote.

    I can see Leave anywhere between 40% and 55%, but I'd hesitate to be any more specific than that.
    There is no doubt that #Brexit have been making all the noise and some in this EU Ref campaign, but I wouldn't underestimate the quiet Remainers who have not got involved on social media etc but will turn up and vote on the day.
    I think you mean the TRAITORS, not Remainers. As that is what they are.

    There will be an emotional reckoning for you lot, when this is done. Scotland, post indyref, will seem like a canape compared to this feast of vengeance.
    How will they execute this terrible feast of vengeance of which you speak, when their kind will be powerless, having being beaten by the europhiles?

    (and soon after destroyed by Dave and Ozzy as they themselves seek revenge on Boris and his band of sceptics)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sam Coates
    No10 think they will win #euref cos of this poll finding: ppl want free trade more than immigration clampdown (just) https://t.co/vi2srEtqPT

    I think they are clutching at straws. Just like everyone else.
    Pointless as well. A 52-48 result for Remain doesn't settle anything.
    Not when they would have bought the result with £9m of taxpayers money.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    Leave really fucked up with their choice.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/739941544820609024

    So when you went canvassing at the GE and people asked what would the Tories do about immigration,your answer was ?

    Hope you didn't go down your parties policy on it or Fake Dave's of cutting immigration,wouldn't that mean you were lying after we find out this government and remain thinks mass immigration is a price worth paying.
    I was commendably honest, I told them I was the wrong person to talk about reducing immigration, I said I was in favour of immigration, and the stats show immigrants as whole make a net contribution to the country.

    I pointed out the Ipsos Mori polling on perceptions, and there's not as many immigrants as people think there.
    Do the stats really point that? (Genuine question)

    As fas as I thought, there is a net fiscal contribution (i.e. immigrant workers pay more tax than is paid out in benefits by immigrant workers/non workers), but not an entirely net positive contribution (i.e. immigrant workers pay less in tax than the benefits accrued by all immigrants in terms of public service receipt). Given almost everyone I know is not a net positive contributor to the treasury - basically everyone with kids is a net recipient - I just cannot see how it can be anything else.
    It is, what you have to understand is a lot immigrants to the UK are high earners, think Doctors and City financiers, their salary levels are at levels where things like child allowance and tax credits aren't paid.

    I think Alastair posted a link recently that confirms that, I'll try and find it in the morning.
    I understand this at the high earner level, though presumably this is more the case for non-EU immigration than EU immigration?

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    fitalass said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sam Coates
    No10 think they will win #euref cos of this poll finding: ppl want free trade more than immigration clampdown (just) https://t.co/vi2srEtqPT

    I think they are clutching at straws. Just like everyone else.
    No one knows anything.

    There are a lot of people who feel disenfranchised who are going to come out for Leave, and who are motivated, and are probably being downweighted because they don't normally vote.

    But there are also lots of people who probably slightly prefer Remain, who may or may not vote.

    I can see Leave anywhere between 40% and 55%, but I'd hesitate to be any more specific than that.
    There is no doubt that #Brexit have been making all the noise and some in this EU Ref campaign, but I wouldn't underestimate the quiet Remainers who have not got involved on social media etc but will turn up and vote on the day.
    I think you mean the TRAITORS, not Remainers. As that is what they are.

    There will be an emotional reckoning for you lot, when this is done. Scotland, post indyref, will seem like a canape compared to this feast of vengeance.
    The cyberkippers are coming!
    Yes. We are. We need to exterminate europhilia in this country, so that - if we lose this vote, which I fear we will - we will damn well win the next. Being pro-EU has to be seen as something akin to bestiality or jihadism. Which it is.

    Happily (kinda) I am certain the EU will assist us in this task. Brussels will seek to do utterly outrageous things to us, as it tries to Federalise, in the next few years, and the REMAINIACS will have to own it all, and try and defend it.

    I predict we will leave by 2025 or so, but, sadly, not in 2016.
    Perhaps if you respond to my PM we can defeat it in 2016 :smile:
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Mortimer said:

    Leave really fucked up with their choice.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/739941544820609024

    So when you went canvassing at the GE and people asked what would the Tories do about immigration,your answer was ?

    Hope you didn't go down your parties policy on it or Fake Dave's of cutting immigration,wouldn't that mean you were lying after we find out this government and remain thinks mass immigration is a price worth paying.
    I was commendably honest, I told them I was the wrong person to talk about reducing immigration, I said I was in favour of immigration, and the stats show immigrants as whole make a net contribution to the country.

    I pointed out the Ipsos Mori polling on perceptions, and there's not as many immigrants as people think there.
    Do the stats really point that? (Genuine question)

    As fas as I thought, there is a net fiscal contribution (i.e. immigrant workers pay more tax than is paid out in benefits by immigrant workers/non workers), but not an entirely net positive contribution (i.e. immigrant workers pay less in tax than the benefits accrued by all immigrants in terms of public service receipt). Given almost everyone I know is not a net positive contributor to the treasury - basically everyone with kids is a net recipient - I just cannot see how it can be anything else.
    A bit convoluted but as most immigrants come here to work they haven't had to be schooled they're usualy young and without children so it's pretty obvious that they're net contributers.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sam Coates
    No10 think they will win #euref cos of this poll finding: ppl want free trade more than immigration clampdown (just) https://t.co/vi2srEtqPT

    I think they are clutching at straws. Just like everyone else.
    Pointless as well. A 52-48 result for Remain doesn't settle anything.
    Not when they would have bought the result with £9m of taxpayers money.
    So we have gone, in a few short hours, from the Leavers attacking Remain for refusing to accept a Leave win to the Leavers refusing to accept a Remain win.

  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    fitalass said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sam Coates
    No10 think they will win #euref cos of this poll finding: ppl want free trade more than immigration clampdown (just) https://t.co/vi2srEtqPT

    I think they are clutching at straws. Just like everyone else.
    No one knows anything.

    There are a lot of people who feel disenfranchised who are going to come out for Leave, and who are motivated, and are probably being downweighted because they don't normally vote.

    But there are also lots of people who probably slightly prefer Remain, who may or may not vote.

    I can see Leave anywhere between 40% and 55%, but I'd hesitate to be any more specific than that.
    There is no doubt that #Brexit have been making all the noise and some in this EU Ref campaign, but I wouldn't underestimate the quiet Remainers who have not got involved on social media etc but will turn up and vote on the day.
    I think you mean the TRAITORS, not Remainers. As that is what they are.

    There will be an emotional reckoning for you lot, when this is done. Scotland, post indyref, will seem like a canape compared to this feast of vengeance.
    The cyberkippers are coming!
    Yes. We are. We need to exterminate europhilia in this country, so that - if we lose this vote, which I fear we will - we will damn well win the next. Being pro-EU has to be seen as something akin to bestiality or jihadism. Which it is.

    Happily (kinda) I am certain the EU will assist us in this task. Brussels will seek to do utterly outrageous things to us, as it tries to Federalise, in the next few years, and the REMAINIACS will have to own it all, and try and defend it.

    I predict we will leave by 2025 or so, but, sadly, not in 2016.
    Europhilia is actually really pleasant once you get into it. You should give it a whirl.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sam Coates
    No10 think they will win #euref cos of this poll finding: ppl want free trade more than immigration clampdown (just) https://t.co/vi2srEtqPT

    I think they are clutching at straws. Just like everyone else.
    Pointless as well. A 52-48 result for Remain doesn't settle anything.
    Not when they would have bought the result with £9m of taxpayers money.
    It was wrong to do that, but the arguments in the leaflets etc have been very noisily countered. If we lose this, it won't be because peop,e were fooled by such things, it's because they allowed themselves to be despite being told otherwise. I know people font line to blame the voters, but all sides exagerrated and all sides get away with what they can - one may be worse, but it's been pointed out, and it will be the public's fault if they ignore it.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    GIN1138 said:

    fitalass said:

    MikeL said:

    I think Sir John Major's intervention has been crucial.His statement on the NHS hit home with people of all parties.I see no harm in Jeremy Corbyn campaigning for the NHS alongside Sir John on this matter.He proved the point that the decent Tory does exist.
    Best wishes to Bernie tonight.I think he will win California.Are you feeling it? #FeelTheBern

    Absolutely right.

    Of course there's lots of knockabout banter that nobody cares about Major - he's old, boring, grey etc etc.

    But fact is he is a former PM who is seen as middle of the road, cautious, understated, respected and he carries weight.

    He will have an influence. He's probably Remain's most effective campaigner.

    People may dismiss it now but his intervention in 2007 had a massive influence - Cameron would not be PM without him.
    MikeL, absolutely bang on the money with that comment!
    If you were one of the thousands of home owners thrown to the wolves by Major on 14th September 1992 you wouldn't think too much to him.

    Yes, he did win against all odds in 1992 but he's always had a fatal flaw which is his obsession and passionate devotion to the European project.

    Thus, when push came to shove on that fateful day in 1992 and he had the choice between leaving the ERM and destroying thousands of middle class home owners - Maggie's children - To stay in the ERM, we know he chose the later.

    His priority have never, ever been the safety and security of the people here but his devotion to the European dream...
    Err, I was a home owner back in 1992. Fitaloon and I had not long bought our first house together after we got married. I was up a ladder stripping wall paper with the TV on following the raising interest rates on the day we came out of the ERM. But lets not forget that we finally got inflation under control and that day, and it also meant that Blair was never going to get his wish that the UK would join the Euro.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,432
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leave really fucked up with their choice.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/739941544820609024

    So when you went canvassing at the GE and people asked what would the Tories do about immigration,your answer was ?

    Hope you didn't go down your parties policy on it or Fake Dave's of cutting immigration,wouldn't that mean you were lying after we find out this government and remain thinks mass immigration is a price worth paying.
    I was commendably honest, I told them I was the wrong person to talk about reducing immigration, I said I was in favour of immigration, and the stats show immigrants as whole make a net contribution to the country.

    I pointed out the Ipsos Mori polling on perceptions, and there's not as many immigrants as people think there.
    Do the stats really point that? (Genuine question)

    As fas as I thought, there is a net fiscal contribution (i.e. immigrant workers pay more tax than is paid out in benefits by immigrant workers/non workers), but not an entirely net positive contribution (i.e. immigrant workers pay less in tax than the benefits accrued by all immigrants in terms of public service receipt). Given almost everyone I know is not a net positive contributor to the treasury - basically everyone with kids is a net recipient - I just cannot see how it can be anything else.
    It is, what you have to understand is a lot immigrants to the UK are high earners, think Doctors and City financiers, their salary levels are at levels where things like child allowance and tax credits aren't paid.

    I think Alastair posted a link recently that confirms that, I'll try and find it in the morning.
    I understand this at the high earner level, though presumably this is more the case for non-EU immigration than EU immigration?

    I think in an absolute number it is a net contribution.

    There's also some dodgy stats used by people like Migrationwatch.

    I remember one study's metric the children of Boris Johnson were considered foreign because he was born outside the UK.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    Jobabob said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sam Coates
    No10 think they will win #euref cos of this poll finding: ppl want free trade more than immigration clampdown (just) https://t.co/vi2srEtqPT

    I think they are clutching at straws. Just like everyone else.
    Pointless as well. A 52-48 result for Remain doesn't settle anything.
    Not when they would have bought the result with £9m of taxpayers money.
    So we have gone, in a few short hours, from the Leavers attacking Remain for refusing to accept a Leave win to the Leavers refusing to accept a Remain win.

    The groundwork was laid for that years ago, with comments any referendum run under Cameron would not be fair. Now, many will say that was prescient, but personally I think we should win regardless, no excuses.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    fitalass said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sam Coates
    No10 think they will win #euref cos of this poll finding: ppl want free trade more than immigration clampdown (just) https://t.co/vi2srEtqPT

    I think they are clutching at straws. Just like everyone else.
    No one knows anything.

    There are a lot of people who feel disenfranchised who are going to come out for Leave, and who are motivated, and are probably being downweighted because they don't normally vote.

    But there are also lots of people who probably slightly prefer Remain, who may or may not vote.

    I can see Leave anywhere between 40% and 55%, but I'd hesitate to be any more specific than that.
    There is no doubt that #Brexit have been making all the noise and some in this EU Ref campaign, but I wouldn't underestimate the quiet Remainers who have not got involved on social media etc but will turn up and vote on the day.
    I think you mean the TRAITORS, not Remainers. As that is what they are.

    There will be an emotional reckoning for you lot, when this is done. Scotland, post indyref, will seem like a canape compared to this feast of vengeance.
    How will they execute this terrible feast of vengeance of which you speak, when their kind will be powerless, having being beaten by the europhiles?

    (and soon after destroyed by Dave and Ozzy as they themselves seek revenge on Boris and his band of sceptics)
    Cf Scotland. The voters will do it for them. Derrrr.
    Seriously why don't you get down to Soho House or refurished Grouchos and see lots of interesting immigrants adding to the gaiity of London and get rid of the mean streak that seems to be enveloping you at the moment.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Leave really fucked up with their choice.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/739941544820609024

    So when you went canvassing at the GE and people asked what would the Tories do about immigration,your answer was ?

    Hope you didn't go down your parties policy on it or Fake Dave's of cutting immigration,wouldn't that mean you were lying after we find out this government and remain thinks mass immigration is a price worth paying.
    I was commendably honest, I told them I was the wrong person to talk about reducing immigration, I said I was in favour of immigration, and the stats show immigrants as whole make a net contribution to the country.

    I pointed out the Ipsos Mori polling on perceptions, and there's not as many immigrants as people think there.
    On your last point -

    In the constituency you were canvassing ? Or the country ?
    The country, I think the constituencies I canvassed were typical of the country.
    So you were feeding them a lie,with three hundred thousand extra people a year it won't take long before change will happen to lots of places,maybe even the ones you were canvassing in.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    fitalass said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sam Coates
    No10 think they will win #euref cos of this poll finding: ppl want free trade more than immigration clampdown (just) https://t.co/vi2srEtqPT

    I think they are clutching at straws. Just like everyone else.
    No one knows anything.

    There are a lot of people who feel disenfranchised who are going to come out for Leave, and who are motivated, and are probably being downweighted because they don't normally vote.

    But there are also lots of people who probably slightly prefer Remain, who may or may not vote.

    I can see Leave anywhere between 40% and 55%, but I'd hesitate to be any more specific than that.
    There is no doubt that #Brexit have been making all the noise and some in this EU Ref campaign, but I wouldn't underestimate the quiet Remainers who have not got involved on social media etc but will turn up and vote on the day.
    I think you mean the TRAITORS, not Remainers. As that is what they are.

    There will be an emotional reckoning for you lot, when this is done. Scotland, post indyref, will seem like a canape compared to this feast of vengeance.
    How will they execute this terrible feast of vengeance of which you speak, when their kind will be powerless, having being beaten by the europhiles?

    (and soon after destroyed by Dave and Ozzy as they themselves seek revenge on Boris and his band of sceptics)
    Cf Scotland. The voters will do it for them. Derrrr.
    The same voters who have just voted for Remain?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leave really fucked up with their choice.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/739941544820609024

    So when you went canvassing at the GE and people asked what would the Tories do about immigration,your answer was ?

    Hope you didn't go down your parties policy on it or Fake Dave's of cutting immigration,wouldn't that mean you were lying after we find out this government and remain thinks mass immigration is a price worth paying.
    I was commendably honest, I told them I was the wrong person to talk about reducing immigration, I said I was in favour of immigration, and the stats show immigrants as whole make a net contribution to the country.

    I pointed out the Ipsos Mori polling on perceptions, and there's not as many immigrants as people think there.
    Do the stats really point that? (Genuine question)

    As fas as I thought, there is a net fiscal contribution (i.e. immigrant workers pay more tax than is paid out in benefits by immigrant workers/non workers), but not an entirely net positive contribution (i.e. immigrant workers pay less in tax than the benefits accrued by all immigrants in terms of public service receipt). Given almost everyone I know is not a net positive contributor to the treasury - basically everyone with kids is a net recipient - I just cannot see how it can be anything else.
    It is, what you have to understand is a lot immigrants to the UK are high earners, think Doctors and City financiers, their salary levels are at levels where things like child allowance and tax credits aren't paid.

    I think Alastair posted a link recently that confirms that, I'll try and find it in the morning.
    I understand this at the high earner level, though presumably this is more the case for non-EU immigration than EU immigration?

    I think in an absolute number it is a net contribution.

    There's also some dodgy stats used by people like Migrationwatch.

    I remember one study's metric the children of Boris Johnson were considered foreign because he was born outside the UK.
    I can well imagine that the data on this is very, very difficult to sort out.

    I guess immigration resonates differently with people based on their experience. In Dorset the majority of EU migration is lower economic level service-economy immigration, C2-C1 and some Bs, many of whom settle and have/bring over children. In Westminster and Mayfair much EU (and non EU) migration would be higher level A-B individuals without dependents.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,414
    Depeche Mode - "LEAVE in Silence" (released 1982):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVu6Wihbp4Q
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    fitalass said:

    GIN1138 said:

    fitalass said:

    MikeL said:

    I think Sir John Major's intervention has been crucial.His statement on the NHS hit home with people of all parties.I see no harm in Jeremy Corbyn campaigning for the NHS alongside Sir John on this matter.He proved the point that the decent Tory does exist.
    Best wishes to Bernie tonight.I think he will win California.Are you feeling it? #FeelTheBern

    Absolutely right.

    Of course there's lots of knockabout banter that nobody cares about Major - he's old, boring, grey etc etc.

    But fact is he is a former PM who is seen as middle of the road, cautious, understated, respected and he carries weight.

    He will have an influence. He's probably Remain's most effective campaigner.

    People may dismiss it now but his intervention in 2007 had a massive influence - Cameron would not be PM without him.
    MikeL, absolutely bang on the money with that comment!
    If you were one of the thousands of home owners thrown to the wolves by Major on 14th September 1992 you wouldn't think too much to him.

    Yes, he did win against all odds in 1992 but he's always had a fatal flaw which is his obsession and passionate devotion to the European project.

    Thus, when push came to shove on that fateful day in 1992 and he had the choice between leaving the ERM and destroying thousands of middle class home owners - Maggie's children - To stay in the ERM, we know he chose the later.

    His priority have never, ever been the safety and security of the people here but his devotion to the European dream...
    Err, I was a home owner back in 1992. Fitaloon and I had not long bought our first house together after we got married. I was up a ladder stripping wall paper with the TV on following the raising interest rates on the day we came out of the ERM. But lets not forget that we finally got inflation under control and that day, and it also meant that Blair was never going to get his wish that the UK would join the Euro.

    You must have been one of the lucky one's...

    And true, we did get the economic miracle and stayed out of the Euro but it was all in-spite of Major not because of him.

    If he'd had his way we'd have stayed in the ERM with rates at 1000% and would have become such an economic basket case that's we'd have had no choice but to join the Euro.

    That was always end game for the europhiles. Still is. Just ask Hezza.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,432

    Leave really fucked up with their choice.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/739941544820609024

    So when you went canvassing at the GE and people asked what would the Tories do about immigration,your answer was ?

    Hope you didn't go down your parties policy on it or Fake Dave's of cutting immigration,wouldn't that mean you were lying after we find out this government and remain thinks mass immigration is a price worth paying.
    I was commendably honest, I told them I was the wrong person to talk about reducing immigration, I said I was in favour of immigration, and the stats show immigrants as whole make a net contribution to the country.

    I pointed out the Ipsos Mori polling on perceptions, and there's not as many immigrants as people think there.
    On your last point -

    In the constituency you were canvassing ? Or the country ?
    The country, I think the constituencies I canvassed were typical of the country.
    So you were feeding them a lie,with three hundred thousand extra people a year it won't take long before change will happen to lots of places,maybe even the ones you were canvassing in.
    No. It was circa 300k at that time.

    Immigration: we think 24% of the population are immigrants – which is nearly twice the real figure of 13%.

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3466/Perceptions-are-not-reality-Things-the-world-gets-wrong.aspx
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    MikeK said:

    If only to bring some cheer to SeanT tonight.
    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/739056035260956672

    We used rent a house in High Wycombe at the end of a lane up the hill, attracted by the deer who used to wander through the garden. Our neighbour was a particularly pompous retired banker. The one after that was a fox-hunter. The one after that played tennis for hours every day. So far as I could tell, nobody worked.

    When Farage talks about Britain becoming a foreign country, I think of that place. A few hard-working Bulgarian lorry-drivers or Polish plumbers would have improved the tone no end.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    fitalass said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sam Coates
    No10 think they will win #euref cos of this poll finding: ppl want free trade more than immigration clampdown (just) https://t.co/vi2srEtqPT

    I think they are clutching at straws. Just like everyone else.
    No one knows anything.

    There are a lot of people who feel disenfranchised who are going to come out for Leave, and who are motivated, and are probably being downweighted because they don't normally vote.

    But there are also lots of people who probably slightly prefer Remain, who may or may not vote.

    I can see Leave anywhere between 40% and 55%, but I'd hesitate to be any more specific than that.
    There is no doubt that #Brexit have been making all the noise and some in this EU Ref campaign, but I wouldn't underestimate the quiet Remainers who have not got involved on social media etc but will turn up and vote on the day.
    I think you mean the TRAITORS, not Remainers. As that is what they are.

    There will be an emotional reckoning for you lot, when this is done. Scotland, post indyref, will seem like a canape compared to this feast of vengeance.
    The cyberkippers are coming!
    Yes. We are. We need to exterminate europhilia in this country, so that - if we lose this vote, which I fear we will - we will damn well win the next. Being pro-EU has to be seen as something akin to bestiality or jihadism. Which it is.

    Happily (kinda) I am certain the EU will assist us in this task. Brussels will seek to do utterly outrageous things to us, as it tries to Federalise, in the next few years, and the REMAINIACS will have to own it all, and try and defend it.

    I predict we will leave by 2025 or so, but, sadly, not in 2016.
    I think the strong Leave vote in the UK will be just the start of rising populism across the Continent over the next few years but we shall see, goodnight
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Remain still going to win by 10 pct imho
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    fitalass said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sam Coates
    No10 think they will win #euref cos of this poll finding: ppl want free trade more than immigration clampdown (just) https://t.co/vi2srEtqPT

    I think they are clutching at straws. Just like everyone else.
    No one knows anything.

    There are a lot of people who feel disenfranchised who are going to come out for Leave, and who are motivated, and are probably being downweighted because they don't normally vote.

    But there are also lots of people who probably slightly prefer Remain, who may or may not vote.

    I can see Leave anywhere between 40% and 55%, but I'd hesitate to be any more specific than that.
    There is no doubt that #Brexit have been making all the noise and some in this EU Ref campaign, but I wouldn't underestimate the quiet Remainers who have not got involved on social media etc but will turn up and vote on the day.
    I think you mean the TRAITORS, not Remainers. As that is what they are.

    There will be an emotional reckoning for you lot, when this is done. Scotland, post indyref, will seem like a canape compared to this feast of vengeance.
    How will they execute this terrible feast of vengeance of which you speak, when their kind will be powerless, having being beaten by the europhiles?

    (and soon after destroyed by Dave and Ozzy as they themselves seek revenge on Boris and his band of sceptics)
    Through the vehicle of UKIP I imagine as in Scotland Yes voters used the SNP!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062

    Leave really fucked up with their choice.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/739941544820609024

    So when you went canvassing at the GE and people asked what would the Tories do about immigration,your answer was ?

    Hope you didn't go down your parties policy on it or Fake Dave's of cutting immigration,wouldn't that mean you were lying after we find out this government and remain thinks mass immigration is a price worth paying.
    I was commendably honest, I told them I was the wrong person to talk about reducing immigration, I said I was in favour of immigration, and the stats show immigrants as whole make a net contribution to the country.

    I pointed out the Ipsos Mori polling on perceptions, and there's not as many immigrants as people think there.
    On your last point -

    In the constituency you were canvassing ? Or the country ?
    The country, I think the constituencies I canvassed were typical of the country.
    So you were feeding them a lie,with three hundred thousand extra people a year it won't take long before change will happen to lots of places,maybe even the ones you were canvassing in.
    No. It was circa 300k at that time.

    Immigration: we think 24% of the population are immigrants – which is nearly twice the real figure of 13%.

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3466/Perceptions-are-not-reality-Things-the-world-gets-wrong.aspx
    Immigrants as in holding a non uk passport?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited June 2016
    .

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,432
    Roger said:

    Leave really fucked up with their choice.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/739941544820609024

    So when you went canvassing at the GE and people asked what would the Tories do about immigration,your answer was ?

    Hope you didn't go down your parties policy on it or Fake Dave's of cutting immigration,wouldn't that mean you were lying after we find out this government and remain thinks mass immigration is a price worth paying.
    I was commendably honest, I told them I was the wrong person to talk about reducing immigration, I said I was in favour of immigration, and the stats show immigrants as whole make a net contribution to the country.

    I pointed out the Ipsos Mori polling on perceptions, and there's not as many immigrants as people think there.
    On your last point -

    In the constituency you were canvassing ? Or the country ?
    The country, I think the constituencies I canvassed were typical of the country.
    So you were feeding them a lie,with three hundred thousand extra people a year it won't take long before change will happen to lots of places,maybe even the ones you were canvassing in.
    No. It was circa 300k at that time.

    Immigration: we think 24% of the population are immigrants – which is nearly twice the real figure of 13%.

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3466/Perceptions-are-not-reality-Things-the-world-gets-wrong.aspx
    Immigrants as in holding a non uk passport?
    Something like that.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,581
    edited June 2016
    It's all so exciting! I'm a passionate Remainer and am convinced that European union has been and will continue to be a force for good in the world. I'd even like to see a United States of Europe one day. So, if Remain win, I'll be cracking the champagne and breathing a sign of relief.

    However, I've postponed my usual transfer of EUR to GBP this month, thus gambling on a Leave vote and a depreciation of the pound against the euro. Hopefully this will provide a small windfall and some consolation in the event of a Leave win. In the long term, a Leave win might even be better if it allows the other EU states to integrate more rapidly and, eventually, haul in the UK again.

    Whichever way, interesting times lie ahead!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    SeanT said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leave really fucked up with their choice.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/739941544820609024

    ...
    ...
    Do the stats really point that? (Genuine question)

    As fas as I thought, there is a net fiscal contribution (i.e. immigrant workers pay more tax than is paid out in benefits by immigrant workers/non workers), but not an entirely net positive contribution (i.e. immigrant workers pay less in tax than the benefits accrued by all immigrants in terms of public service receipt). Given almost everyone I know is not a net positive contributor to the treasury - basically everyone with kids is a net recipient - I just cannot see how it can be anything else.
    It is, what you have to understand is a lot immigrants to the UK are high earners, think Doctors and City financiers, their salary levels are at levels where things like child allowance and tax credits aren't paid.

    I think Alastair posted a link recently that confirms that, I'll try and find it in the morning.
    I understand this at the high earner level, though presumably this is more the case for non-EU immigration than EU immigration?

    Look at this

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3625089/Shanty-towns-suburbia-Migrants-working-just-40-day-living-squalid-conditions-makeshift-camps-London.html

    I've seen this for myself. This is not Mail hysteria. This is happening. Camden too. How can native Brits possibly hope to compete, on wages, with people who will live under motorways, in boxes? This is a fact of life across the UK. It is ridiculous. We are shredding the fabric of the country, and shitting on the poor native Brits, to keep the price of window cleaning low for the likes of me.

    Fuck that. We can do better for our own people. Fatuous twats in Scotland or the Groucho Club may not see this, but down in South East England this is the reality of Free Movement across the EU.
    Don't worry Sean, I'm not having some Pauline moment - and that report is a simply shaming indictment of successive government's failed approaches to sustainable growth, the education and motivation of our own populace and off the books employment.

    Because immigration is not all good and often undermines the basic responsibilities of our elected officials in non-economic matters I am sceptical of it whether net positions are positive or negative, but I am interested in understanding the net economic position nonetheless.

  • VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    Jobabob said:

    I think Sir John Major's intervention has been crucial.His statement on the NHS hit home with people of all parties.I see no harm in Jeremy Corbyn campaigning for the NHS alongside Sir John on this matter.He proved the point that the decent Tory does exist.
    Best wishes to Bernie tonight.I think he will win California.Are you feeling it? #FeelTheBern

    As someone who actively voted against Sir John, I have long been a proponent on here of his being one of the most – if not the most - underrated politicians in British history. Anyone who could win in 92 from the top of a soapbox defying all the odds is deserving of serious respect.

    And yes, he is clearly a thoroughly decent man.
    I'm sorry?

    Is this the same John Major who sued and closed down the magazine Scallywag for saying he'd had an affair - when he had?
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2286916.stm
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Blimey Sean t has gone all turnip again.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,414

    Jobabob said:

    I think Sir John Major's intervention has been crucial.His statement on the NHS hit home with people of all parties.I see no harm in Jeremy Corbyn campaigning for the NHS alongside Sir John on this matter.He proved the point that the decent Tory does exist.
    Best wishes to Bernie tonight.I think he will win California.Are you feeling it? #FeelTheBern

    As someone who actively voted against Sir John, I have long been a proponent on here of his being one of the most – if not the most - underrated politicians in British history. Anyone who could win in 92 from the top of a soapbox defying all the odds is deserving of serious respect.

    And yes, he is clearly a thoroughly decent man.
    I'm sorry?

    Is this the same John Major who sued and closed down the magazine Scallywag for saying he'd had an affair - when he had?
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2286916.stm
    John "165 seats" Major?
    John "30%" Major?

    :lol:
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    SeanT said:



    Look at this

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3625089/Shanty-towns-suburbia-Migrants-working-just-40-day-living-squalid-conditions-makeshift-camps-London.html

    I've seen this for myself. This is not Mail hysteria. This is happening. Camden too. How can native Brits possibly hope to compete, on wages, with people who will live under motorways, in boxes? This is a fact of life across the UK. It is ridiculous. We are shredding the fabric of the country, and shitting on the poor native Brits, to keep the price of window cleaning low for the likes of me.

    Fuck that. We can do better for our own people. Fatuous twats in Scotland or the Groucho Club may not see this, but down in South East England this is the reality of Free Movement across the EU.

    It's just £3 for a hand car wash here in the West Midlands. None of that sub-minimum wage, cash only, unaccounted for tax and VAT-free economy will feature in any set of Exchequer statistics, but I agree, it's as clear as day that it's a fact of life here.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    MikeK said:

    If only to bring some cheer to SeanT tonight.
    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/739056035260956672

    We used rent a house in High Wycombe at the end of a lane up the hill, attracted by the deer who used to wander through the garden. Our neighbour was a particularly pompous retired banker. The one after that was a fox-hunter. The one after that played tennis for hours every day. So far as I could tell, nobody worked.

    When Farage talks about Britain becoming a foreign country, I think of that place. A few hard-working Bulgarian lorry-drivers or Polish plumbers would have improved the tone no end.
    Wow, given I love a bit of tennis, am pro hunting and wont to a bit of pomposity, it is probably the place for me.

    I'm sure there is a bit of jest in your post Nick, but would you concede that the free movement of Bulgarian lorry drivers and Polish plumbers can be objected to by people who are British and fear for the future direction of their country in an ever closer and ever wider stagnating trade club - whether those people are fox hunters, pompous bankers or tennis players. And that their views are more significant than the Bulgarian lorry drivers and Polish plumbers who might nevertheless contribute to the economy, by the very virtue of the fox hunters, pompous bankers and tennis players being British?

    Flipping the coin, I wouldn't be pro British retirees rights to dictate the future direction of the Costas because they're not Spanish.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    How is it possible that the guy writing this:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/06/the-leave-campaign-cant-keep-dodging-the-biggest-question/

    Is the same person that made this speech:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ26SmDzxHE


    All the so called "euroscepticism" from Hague was just an act. Did he ever mean any of that "Save The Pound" stuff in 2001? I've got my doubts...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734

    Jobabob said:

    I think Sir John Major's intervention has been crucial.His statement on the NHS hit home with people of all parties.I see no harm in Jeremy Corbyn campaigning for the NHS alongside Sir John on this matter.He proved the point that the decent Tory does exist.
    Best wishes to Bernie tonight.I think he will win California.Are you feeling it? #FeelTheBern

    As someone who actively voted against Sir John, I have long been a proponent on here of his being one of the most – if not the most - underrated politicians in British history. Anyone who could win in 92 from the top of a soapbox defying all the odds is deserving of serious respect.

    And yes, he is clearly a thoroughly decent man.
    I'm sorry?

    Is this the same John Major who sued and closed down the magazine Scallywag for saying he'd had an affair - when he had?
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2286916.stm
    John "165 seats" Major?
    John "30%" Major?

    :lol:
    John 'more votes than any other PM in history' Major too
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,432
    Times/YouGov poll

    Some 31 per cent of voters said the economy was most likely to influence their decision, 20 per cent said it was about immigration, 31 per cent wanted a better balance over sovereignty and 4 per cent said it was about Britain’s influence in the world.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,432
    GIN1138 said:

    How is it possible that the guy writing this:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/06/the-leave-campaign-cant-keep-dodging-the-biggest-question/

    Is the same person that made this speech:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ26SmDzxHE


    All the so called "euroscepticism" from Hague was just an act. Did he ever mean any of that "Save The Pound" stuff in 2001? I've got my doubts...

    To be a Eurosceptic doesn't mean you're a Leaver.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Leave really fucked up with their choice.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/739941544820609024

    So when you went canvassing at the GE and people asked what would the Tories do about immigration,your answer was ?

    Hope you didn't go down your parties policy on it or Fake Dave's of cutting immigration,wouldn't that mean you were lying after we find out this government and remain thinks mass immigration is a price worth paying.
    I was commendably honest, I told them I was the wrong person to talk about reducing immigration, I said I was in favour of immigration, and the stats show immigrants as whole make a net contribution to the country.

    I pointed out the Ipsos Mori polling on perceptions, and there's not as many immigrants as people think there.
    On your last point -

    In the constituency you were canvassing ? Or the country ?
    The country, I think the constituencies I canvassed were typical of the country.
    So you were feeding them a lie,with three hundred thousand extra people a year it won't take long before change will happen to lots of places,maybe even the ones you were canvassing in.
    No. It was circa 300k at that time.

    Immigration: we think 24% of the population are immigrants – which is nearly twice the real figure of 13%.

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3466/Perceptions-are-not-reality-Things-the-world-gets-wrong.aspx
    You will make a good politician one day.

    What would it be if don't count the Brits emigrating ? Keep using that bullshit poll for your excuse for lying when your canvassing.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,581
    edited June 2016
    Mortimer said:

    MikeK said:

    If only to bring some cheer to SeanT tonight.
    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/739056035260956672

    We used rent a house in High Wycombe at the end of a lane up the hill, attracted by the deer who used to wander through the garden. Our neighbour was a particularly pompous retired banker. The one after that was a fox-hunter. The one after that played tennis for hours every day. So far as I could tell, nobody worked.

    When Farage talks about Britain becoming a foreign country, I think of that place. A few hard-working Bulgarian lorry-drivers or Polish plumbers would have improved the tone no end.
    Wow, given I love a bit of tennis, am pro hunting and wont to a bit of pomposity, it is probably the place for me.

    I'm sure there is a bit of jest in your post Nick, but would you concede that the free movement of Bulgarian lorry drivers and Polish plumbers can be objected to by people who are British and fear for the future direction of their country in an ever closer and ever wider stagnating trade club - whether those people are fox hunters, pompous bankers or tennis players. And that their views are more significant than the Bulgarian lorry drivers and Polish plumbers who might nevertheless contribute to the economy, by the very virtue of the fox hunters, pompous bankers and tennis players being British?

    Flipping the coin, I wouldn't be pro British retirees rights to dictate the future direction of the Costas because they're not Spanish.
    So would a pompous, fox-hunting, tennis-playing Polish banker improve the neighbourhood or not?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    GIN1138 said:

    How is it possible that the guy writing this:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/06/the-leave-campaign-cant-keep-dodging-the-biggest-question/

    Is the same person that made this speech:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ26SmDzxHE


    All the so called "euroscepticism" from Hague was just an act. Did he ever mean any of that "Save The Pound" stuff in 2001? I've got my doubts...

    You are aware that Hague won his campaign to save the pound ultimately right?
    The pound was saved. Hague never said he wanted to leave the EU.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,432

    Leave really fucked up with their choice.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/739941544820609024

    So when you went canvassing at the GE and people asked what would the Tories do about immigration,your answer was ?

    Hope you didn't go down your parties policy on it or Fake Dave's of cutting immigration,wouldn't that mean you were lying after we find out this government and remain thinks mass immigration is a price worth paying.
    I was commendably honest, I told them I was the wrong person to talk about reducing immigration, I said I was in favour of immigration, and the stats show immigrants as whole make a net contribution to the country.

    I pointed out the Ipsos Mori polling on perceptions, and there's not as many immigrants as people think there.
    On your last point -

    In the constituency you were canvassing ? Or the country ?
    The country, I think the constituencies I canvassed were typical of the country.
    So you were feeding them a lie,with three hundred thousand extra people a year it won't take long before change will happen to lots of places,maybe even the ones you were canvassing in.
    No. It was circa 300k at that time.

    Immigration: we think 24% of the population are immigrants – which is nearly twice the real figure of 13%.

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3466/Perceptions-are-not-reality-Things-the-world-gets-wrong.aspx
    You will make a good politician one day.

    What would it be if don't count the Brits emigrating ? Keep using that bullshit poll for your excuse for lying when your canvassing.
    I'd make a terrible politician. I said the net figure.

    So a bullshit poll is the new rogue poll. You don't like it, so rubbish it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,928
    GIN1138 said:

    How is it possible that the guy writing this:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/06/the-leave-campaign-cant-keep-dodging-the-biggest-question/

    Is the same person that made this speech

    How about this politician:

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/81371/IDS-raps-Blair-for-lying.html

    IAIN Duncan Smith will today accuse Tony Blair of 'lying' over claims the Tories would pull Britain out of the EU.

    Instead, IDS will argue for a New Europe ready for 21st century economic and social challenges.
    ..

    Foreign Secretary Jack Straw dismissed their call for a referendum and said Tory policy would 'lead inevitably to this country's total separation' from the EU.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    GIN1138 said:

    How is it possible that the guy writing this:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/06/the-leave-campaign-cant-keep-dodging-the-biggest-question/

    Is the same person that made this speech:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ26SmDzxHE


    All the so called "euroscepticism" from Hague was just an act. Did he ever mean any of that "Save The Pound" stuff in 2001? I've got my doubts...

    To be a Eurosceptic doesn't mean you're a Leaver.
    Perceptions,that's what the Tory party has always done on the European superstate but the good news after the referendum,it can't pretend anymore its Eurosceptic.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451

    GIN1138 said:

    How is it possible that the guy writing this:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/06/the-leave-campaign-cant-keep-dodging-the-biggest-question/

    Is the same person that made this speech:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ26SmDzxHE


    All the so called "euroscepticism" from Hague was just an act. Did he ever mean any of that "Save The Pound" stuff in 2001? I've got my doubts...

    You are aware that Hague won his campaign to save the pound ultimately right?
    The pound was saved. Hague never said he wanted to leave the EU.
    Well we stayed out of the Euro but whether Hague "won" the campaign or was even particularly bothered about "saving the Pound" who can say?

    Seems to me it was all just an act and he probably never meant a word of any of it, But that's just my take...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    MikeK said:

    If only to bring some cheer to SeanT tonight.
    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/739056035260956672

    We used rent a house in High Wycombe at the end of a lane up the hill, attracted by the deer who used to wander through the garden. Our neighbour was a particularly pompous retired banker. The one after that was a fox-hunter. The one after that played tennis for hours every day. So far as I could tell, nobody worked.

    When Farage talks about Britain becoming a foreign country, I think of that place. A few hard-working Bulgarian lorry-drivers or Polish plumbers would have improved the tone no end.
    Wow, given I love a bit of tennis, am pro hunting and wont to a bit of pomposity, it is probably the place for me.

    I'm sure there is a bit of jest in your post Nick, but would you concede that the free movement of Bulgarian lorry drivers and Polish plumbers can be objected to by people who are British and fear for the future direction of their country in an ever closer and ever wider stagnating trade club - whether those people are fox hunters, pompous bankers or tennis players. And that their views are more significant than the Bulgarian lorry drivers and Polish plumbers who might nevertheless contribute to the economy, by the very virtue of the fox hunters, pompous bankers and tennis players being British?

    Flipping the coin, I wouldn't be pro British retirees rights to dictate the future direction of the Costas because they're not Spanish.
    So would a pompous, fox-hunting, tennis-playing Polish banker improve the neighbourhood or not?
    Is that relevant?

    British subjects have, IMO, certain rights to question the future of this country whether they're deemed good people or not - not least because the deeming of people as beneficial to a neighbourhood/town/country/world is often entirely subjective.

    For me, the judgement of immigration is about far more than a) the worldliness or otherwise of those arriving or b) what they contribute or not.
  • VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leave really fucked up with their choice.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/739941544820609024

    So when you went canvassing at the GE and people asked what would the Tories do about immigration,your answer was ?

    Hope you didn't go down your parties policy on it or Fake Dave's of cutting immigration,wouldn't that mean you were lying after we find out this government and remain thinks mass immigration is a price worth paying.
    I was commendably honest, I told them I was the wrong person to talk about reducing immigration, I said I was in favour of immigration, and the stats show immigrants as whole make a net contribution to the country.

    I pointed out the Ipsos Mori polling on perceptions, and there's not as many immigrants as people think there.
    Do the stats really point that? (Genuine question)

    As fas as I thought, there is a net fiscal contribution (i.e. immigrant workers pay more tax than is paid out in benefits by immigrant workers/non workers), but not an entirely net positive contribution (i.e. immigrant workers pay less in tax than the benefits accrued by all immigrants in terms of public service receipt). Given almost everyone I know is not a net positive contributor to the treasury - basically everyone with kids is a net recipient - I just cannot see how it can be anything else.
    A bit convoluted but as most immigrants come here to work they haven't had to be schooled they're usualy young and without children so it's pretty obvious that they're net contributers.
    Do they get sterilised upon entry?

    Or do they have children when they get here?

    Also, a thoroughly dishonest metric as it doesn't take into account lifetime contributions and benefits received e.g. pensions.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Leave really fucked up with their choice.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/739941544820609024

    So when you went canvassing at the GE and people asked what would the Tories do about immigration,your answer was ?

    Hope you didn't go down your parties policy on it or Fake Dave's of cutting immigration,wouldn't that mean you were lying after we find out this government and remain thinks mass immigration is a price worth paying.
    I was commendably honest, I told them I was the wrong person to talk about reducing immigration, I said I was in favour of immigration, and the stats show immigrants as whole make a net contribution to the country.

    I pointed out the Ipsos Mori polling on perceptions, and there's not as many immigrants as people think there.
    On your last point -

    In the constituency you were canvassing ? Or the country ?
    The country, I think the constituencies I canvassed were typical of the country.
    So you were feeding them a lie,with three hundred thousand extra people a year it won't take long before change will happen to lots of places,maybe even the ones you were canvassing in.
    No. It was circa 300k at that time.

    Immigration: we think 24% of the population are immigrants – which is nearly twice the real figure of 13%.

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3466/Perceptions-are-not-reality-Things-the-world-gets-wrong.aspx
    You will make a good politician one day.

    What would it be if don't count the Brits emigrating ? Keep using that bullshit poll for your excuse for lying when your canvassing.
    I'd make a terrible politician. I said the net figure.

    So a bullshit poll is the new rogue poll. You don't like it, so rubbish it.
    A poll done from what percentage of our population ?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Goodnight all - thanks for the heightened level of discussion today!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,414
    HYUFD said:

    Jobabob said:

    I think Sir John Major's intervention has been crucial.His statement on the NHS hit home with people of all parties.I see no harm in Jeremy Corbyn campaigning for the NHS alongside Sir John on this matter.He proved the point that the decent Tory does exist.
    Best wishes to Bernie tonight.I think he will win California.Are you feeling it? #FeelTheBern

    As someone who actively voted against Sir John, I have long been a proponent on here of his being one of the most – if not the most - underrated politicians in British history. Anyone who could win in 92 from the top of a soapbox defying all the odds is deserving of serious respect.

    And yes, he is clearly a thoroughly decent man.
    I'm sorry?

    Is this the same John Major who sued and closed down the magazine Scallywag for saying he'd had an affair - when he had?
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2286916.stm
    John "165 seats" Major?
    John "30%" Major?

    :lol:
    John 'more votes than any other PM in history' Major too
    But that was before the "165 seats/30%" :)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    SeanT said:



    Look at this

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3625089/Shanty-towns-suburbia-Migrants-working-just-40-day-living-squalid-conditions-makeshift-camps-London.html

    I've seen this for myself. This is not Mail hysteria. This is happening. Camden too. How can native Brits possibly hope to compete, on wages, with people who will live under motorways, in boxes? This is a fact of life across the UK. It is ridiculous. We are shredding the fabric of the country, and shitting on the poor native Brits, to keep the price of window cleaning low for the likes of me.

    Fuck that. We can do better for our own people. Fatuous twats in Scotland or the Groucho Club may not see this, but down in South East England this is the reality of Free Movement across the EU.

    It's just £3 for a hand car wash here in the West Midlands. None of that sub-minimum wage, cash only, unaccounted for tax and VAT-free economy will feature in any set of Exchequer statistics, but I agree, it's as clear as day that it's a fact of life here.
    I've long said I'm not bothered by immigration but this is indeed something that truly gets my goat. I've just had to submit my VAT return which is a hefty sum to be paid out on Friday. Then legally paid wage bills keep going up and on top of that you have Employers NI Contributions, a payroll tax just for the privilege of offering someone an income. So on and so forth. I've not got a problem with any of that (except payroll tax, that is wrong and should be abolished) if its on a level playing field that everyone pays.

    But then anyone who is less scrupulous, who does cash in hand, is paying a fraction of the costs that honest people do. Not only that but if those on cash in hand are claiming benefits then that is increasing taxes. Not only that, but if you have a competitor who is doing cash in hand then they can undercut your prices very considerably.

    If people are working here let them work here but account for it honestly and legally. But cash in hand is a very serious problem.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,170
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    How is it possible that the guy writing this:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/06/the-leave-campaign-cant-keep-dodging-the-biggest-question/

    Is the same person that made this speech:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ26SmDzxHE


    All the so called "euroscepticism" from Hague was just an act. Did he ever mean any of that "Save The Pound" stuff in 2001? I've got my doubts...

    You are aware that Hague won his campaign to save the pound ultimately right?
    The pound was saved. Hague never said he wanted to leave the EU.
    Well we stayed out of the Euro but whether Hague "won" the campaign or was even particularly bothered about "saving the Pound" who can say?

    Seems to me it was all just an act and he probably never meant a word of any of it, But that's just my take...
    There is no chance of the UK joining the pound, so I'd say it was won.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320

    GIN1138 said:

    How is it possible that the guy writing this:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/06/the-leave-campaign-cant-keep-dodging-the-biggest-question/

    Is the same person that made this speech:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ26SmDzxHE


    All the so called "euroscepticism" from Hague was just an act. Did he ever mean any of that "Save The Pound" stuff in 2001? I've got my doubts...

    To be a Eurosceptic doesn't mean you're a Leaver.
    Hits nail on the head.
  • Deep thought - a question, a genuine one as I dont have the answer and am too emotionally involved to be able to give a balanced one- it involves John Major as he has been invoked by Roger and others tonight:

    In 1992 the Conservatives he led got the largest ever vote in a General Election and Tony Blair's majorities were caused as much by those voters staying at home as by voters flocking to Labour. What if those 'missing' Major 92 voters are the ones who are potentially boosting turnout? What if those are the voters who are 'coming home?' And if they are surely that a) boosts Leave and b) like Banquo's ghost haunt the pollsters?

    A lot of ifs and buts I know, yet surely those ex-Major C1/2 voters are more likely to vote this time than students away from uni?

    Thoughts?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    How is it possible that the guy writing this:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/06/the-leave-campaign-cant-keep-dodging-the-biggest-question/

    Is the same person that made this speech:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ26SmDzxHE


    All the so called "euroscepticism" from Hague was just an act. Did he ever mean any of that "Save The Pound" stuff in 2001? I've got my doubts...

    You are aware that Hague won his campaign to save the pound ultimately right?
    The pound was saved. Hague never said he wanted to leave the EU.
    Well we stayed out of the Euro but whether Hague "won" the campaign or was even particularly bothered about "saving the Pound" who can say?

    Seems to me it was all just an act and he probably never meant a word of any of it, But that's just my take...
    What evidence do you have for that? Especially since at the time he said (as IDS said after him) that he had no desire to leave the EU. Who was "acting"? Hague who said he wanted to keep the pound and stay in the EU, or IDS who said he wanted to keep the pound and stay in the EU?

    Who is being inconsistent today with what they said when they had the chance?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,414

    Leave really fucked up with their choice.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/739941544820609024

    So when you went canvassing at the GE and people asked what would the Tories do about immigration,your answer was ?

    Hope you didn't go down your parties policy on it or Fake Dave's of cutting immigration,wouldn't that mean you were lying after we find out this government and remain thinks mass immigration is a price worth paying.
    I was commendably honest, I told them I was the wrong person to talk about reducing immigration, I said I was in favour of immigration, and the stats show immigrants as whole make a net contribution to the country.

    I pointed out the Ipsos Mori polling on perceptions, and there's not as many immigrants as people think there.
    On your last point -

    In the constituency you were canvassing ? Or the country ?
    The country, I think the constituencies I canvassed were typical of the country.
    So you were feeding them a lie,with three hundred thousand extra people a year it won't take long before change will happen to lots of places,maybe even the ones you were canvassing in.
    No. It was circa 300k at that time.

    Immigration: we think 24% of the population are immigrants – which is nearly twice the real figure of 13%.

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3466/Perceptions-are-not-reality-Things-the-world-gets-wrong.aspx
    You will make a good politician one day.

    What would it be if don't count the Brits emigrating ? Keep using that bullshit poll for your excuse for lying when your canvassing.
    I'd make a terrible politician. I said the net figure.

    I have always used the £8.5 billlion net figure to the EU!

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    MikeK said:

    If only to bring some cheer to SeanT tonight.
    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/739056035260956672

    We used rent a house in High Wycombe at the end of a lane up the hill, attracted by the deer who used to wander through the garden. Our neighbour was a particularly pompous retired banker. The one after that was a fox-hunter. The one after that played tennis for hours every day. So far as I could tell, nobody worked.

    When Farage talks about Britain becoming a foreign country, I think of that place. A few hard-working Bulgarian lorry-drivers or Polish plumbers would have improved the tone no end.
    Nick, the problem is that in other far less leafy communities it is anything but a few, and the consequences are very real and immediate. What this surplus of cheap imported labour ensures above all is continued low pay at the bottom end of the labour market. I take issue with Stuart Rose when he expresses concern that in the absence of migration on such an excessive scale from E Europe wages would rise at the bottom end of the labour market, because unlike him and the CBI I see that as a good thing. Yes there would be pressure on costs and some limited inflation, but the impact would still be a narrowing of inequality.

    Bear in mind also that with migration far and away the top issue of concern to the public, the prospect of any public concern at the indolent community living in that lane in High Wycombe falls by the wayside. You'll be able to refocus public concern at the excesses at the top of the food chain only once you have first tackled the much more immediate problems affecting those at the bottom.




  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    SeanT said:



    Look at this

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3625089/Shanty-towns-suburbia-Migrants-working-just-40-day-living-squalid-conditions-makeshift-camps-London.html

    I've seen this for myself. This is not Mail hysteria. This is happening. Camden too. How can native Brits possibly hope to compete, on wages, with people who will live under motorways, in boxes? This is a fact of life across the UK. It is ridiculous. We are shredding the fabric of the country, and shitting on the poor native Brits, to keep the price of window cleaning low for the likes of me.

    Fuck that. We can do better for our own people. Fatuous twats in Scotland or the Groucho Club may not see this, but down in South East England this is the reality of Free Movement across the EU.

    It's just £3 for a hand car wash here in the West Midlands. None of that sub-minimum wage, cash only, unaccounted for tax and VAT-free economy will feature in any set of Exchequer statistics, but I agree, it's as clear as day that it's a fact of life here.
    I've long said I'm not bothered by immigration but this is indeed something that truly gets my goat. I've just had to submit my VAT return which is a hefty sum to be paid out on Friday. Then legally paid wage bills keep going up and on top of that you have Employers NI Contributions, a payroll tax just for the privilege of offering someone an income. So on and so forth. I've not got a problem with any of that (except payroll tax, that is wrong and should be abolished) if its on a level playing field that everyone pays.

    But then anyone who is less scrupulous, who does cash in hand, is paying a fraction of the costs that honest people do. Not only that but if those on cash in hand are claiming benefits then that is increasing taxes. Not only that, but if you have a competitor who is doing cash in hand then they can undercut your prices very considerably.

    If people are working here let them work here but account for it honestly and legally. But cash in hand is a very serious problem.
    I fully agree.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3360199/Number-automatic-car-wash-sites-halved-15-years-hand-wash-businesses-boom.html
  • MikeK said:

    If only to bring some cheer to SeanT tonight.
    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/739056035260956672

    We used rent a house in High Wycombe at the end of a lane up the hill, attracted by the deer who used to wander through the garden. Our neighbour was a particularly pompous retired banker. The one after that was a fox-hunter. The one after that played tennis for hours every day. So far as I could tell, nobody worked.

    When Farage talks about Britain becoming a foreign country, I think of that place. A few hard-working Bulgarian lorry-drivers or Polish plumbers would have improved the tone no end.
    Nick, the problem is that in other far less leafy communities it is anything but a few, and the consequences are very real and immediate. What this surplus of cheap imported labour ensures above all is continued low pay at the bottom end of the labour market. I take issue with Stuart Rose when he expresses concern that in the absence of migration on such an excessive scale from E Europe wages would rise at the bottom end of the labour market, because unlike him and the CBI I see that as a good thing. Yes there would be pressure on costs and some limited inflation, but the impact would still be a narrowing of inequality.

    Bear in mind also that with migration far and away the top issue of concern to the public, the prospect of any public concern at the indolent community living in that lane in High Wycombe falls by the wayside. You'll be able to refocus public concern at the excesses at the top of the food chain only once you have first tackled the much more immediate problems affecting those at the bottom.




    It's a myth that cheap imported labour reduces the wages of the natives. What actually happens is the the immigrants take over the bottom-end jobs that the natives used to do, while the natives that were displaced from these jobs end up in better paying roles further up the chain. It's the lump of labour fallacy all over again.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    fitalass said:

    GIN1138 said:

    How is it possible that the guy writing this:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/06/the-leave-campaign-cant-keep-dodging-the-biggest-question/

    Is the same person that made this speech:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ26SmDzxHE


    All the so called "euroscepticism" from Hague was just an act. Did he ever mean any of that "Save The Pound" stuff in 2001? I've got my doubts...

    To be a Eurosceptic doesn't mean you're a Leaver.
    Hits nail on the head.
    Well you better tell Fake Dave,he mentioned leaving and half your party.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    I am going to say only one thing about the polls. I don't like them.......Why?

    I want a decisive result.

    I want whatever side wins to win by such significant majority that the other side is so well beaten that it does not bitch for the next 10. Years about the result.!!!!


    That is all.....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    MikeK said:

    If only to bring some cheer to SeanT tonight.
    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/739056035260956672

    We used rent a house in High Wycombe at the end of a lane up the hill, attracted by the deer who used to wander through the garden. Our neighbour was a particularly pompous retired banker. The one after that was a fox-hunter. The one after that played tennis for hours every day. So far as I could tell, nobody worked.

    When Farage talks about Britain becoming a foreign country, I think of that place. A few hard-working Bulgarian lorry-drivers or Polish plumbers would have improved the tone no end.
    Nick, the problem is that in other far less leafy communities it is anything but a few, and the consequences are very real and immediate. What this surplus of cheap imported labour ensures above all is continued low pay at the bottom end of the labour market. I take issue with Stuart Rose when he expresses concern that in the absence of migration on such an excessive scale from E Europe wages would rise at the bottom end of the labour market, because unlike him and the CBI I see that as a good thing. Yes there would be pressure on costs and some limited inflation, but the impact would still be a narrowing of inequality.

    Bear in mind also that with migration far and away the top issue of concern to the public, the prospect of any public concern at the indolent community living in that lane in High Wycombe falls by the wayside. You'll be able to refocus public concern at the excesses at the top of the food chain only once you have first tackled the much more immediate problems affecting those at the bottom.




    It's a myth that cheap imported labour reduces the wages of the natives. What actually happens is the the immigrants take over the bottom-end jobs that the natives used to do, while the natives that were displaced from these jobs end up in better paying roles further up the chain. It's the lump of labour fallacy all over again.
    That's only the case if the migrants are less qualified/motivated/dedicated etc than the natives.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    does it matter if I use a pencil or a pen for my postal vote? usually pencil at a polling station, right?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,928
    edited June 2016

    That's only the case if the migrants are less qualified/motivated/dedicated etc than the natives.

    Yes, look at people like Gisela Stuart. They come over here, take our patriotism...
  • MikeK said:

    If only to bring some cheer to SeanT tonight.
    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/739056035260956672

    We used rent a house in High Wycombe at the end of a lane up the hill, attracted by the deer who used to wander through the garden. Our neighbour was a particularly pompous retired banker. The one after that was a fox-hunter. The one after that played tennis for hours every day. So far as I could tell, nobody worked.

    When Farage talks about Britain becoming a foreign country, I think of that place. A few hard-working Bulgarian lorry-drivers or Polish plumbers would have improved the tone no end.
    Nick, the problem is that in other far less leafy communities it is anything but a few, and the consequences are very real and immediate. What this surplus of cheap imported labour ensures above all is continued low pay at the bottom end of the labour market. I take issue with Stuart Rose when he expresses concern that in the absence of migration on such an excessive scale from E Europe wages would rise at the bottom end of the labour market, because unlike him and the CBI I see that as a good thing. Yes there would be pressure on costs and some limited inflation, but the impact would still be a narrowing of inequality.

    Bear in mind also that with migration far and away the top issue of concern to the public, the prospect of any public concern at the indolent community living in that lane in High Wycombe falls by the wayside. You'll be able to refocus public concern at the excesses at the top of the food chain only once you have first tackled the much more immediate problems affecting those at the bottom.




    It's a myth that cheap imported labour reduces the wages of the natives. What actually happens is the the immigrants take over the bottom-end jobs that the natives used to do, while the natives that were displaced from these jobs end up in better paying roles further up the chain. It's the lump of labour fallacy all over again.
    That's only the case if the migrants are less qualified/motivated/dedicated etc than the natives.
    The migrants are usually at a huge disadvantage due to linguistic and cultural differences and the lack of any sort of patronage. That's why they so often end up starting at the bottom despite their possibly higher qualifications/motivation/dedication.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Moses_ said:

    I am going to say only one thing about the polls. I don't like them.......Why?

    I want a decisive result.

    I want whatever side wins to win by such significant majority that the other side is so well beaten that it does not bitch for the next 10. Years about the result.!!!!


    That is all.....

    Leave by 1 vote is a decisive result. Remain with anything less than 60% isn't
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320

    Moses_ said:

    I am going to say only one thing about the polls. I don't like them.......Why?

    I want a decisive result.

    I want whatever side wins to win by such significant majority that the other side is so well beaten that it does not bitch for the next 10. Years about the result.!!!!


    That is all.....

    Leave by 1 vote is a decisive result. Remain with anything less than 60% isn't
    Rubbish! You cannot move democratic goal posts to suit your own position.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320

    does it matter if I use a pencil or a pen for my postal vote? usually pencil at a polling station, right?

    No, as long as you put your cross in a box and don't spoil your paper.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320

    fitalass said:

    GIN1138 said:

    How is it possible that the guy writing this:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/06/the-leave-campaign-cant-keep-dodging-the-biggest-question/

    Is the same person that made this speech:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ26SmDzxHE


    All the so called "euroscepticism" from Hague was just an act. Did he ever mean any of that "Save The Pound" stuff in 2001? I've got my doubts...

    To be a Eurosceptic doesn't mean you're a Leaver.
    Hits nail on the head.
    Well you better tell Fake Dave,he mentioned leaving and half your party.
    Happily managed to get through whole EU Ref campaign without resorting to petty name calling of politicians. Been amazed at how the #Brexit crew have now begun to resemble the cybernats during the Indy Ref, neither attractive or a positive contribution to the debate.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    fitalass said:

    Moses_ said:

    I am going to say only one thing about the polls. I don't like them.......Why?

    I want a decisive result.

    I want whatever side wins to win by such significant majority that the other side is so well beaten that it does not bitch for the next 10. Years about the result.!!!!


    That is all.....

    Leave by 1 vote is a decisive result. Remain with anything less than 60% isn't
    Rubbish! You cannot move democratic goal posts to suit your own position.
    No, it's the reality of politics where the status quo is up against change . Scotland teaches us this to be fact

    Once a change is made, you can never go back.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    fitalass said:

    does it matter if I use a pencil or a pen for my postal vote? usually pencil at a polling station, right?

    No, as long as you put your cross in a box and don't spoil your paper.
    Thanks. It's done. In the post. Voted remain.

    Thanks folks for all the discussions.

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320

    fitalass said:

    Moses_ said:

    I am going to say only one thing about the polls. I don't like them.......Why?

    I want a decisive result.

    I want whatever side wins to win by such significant majority that the other side is so well beaten that it does not bitch for the next 10. Years about the result.!!!!


    That is all.....

    Leave by 1 vote is a decisive result. Remain with anything less than 60% isn't
    Rubbish! You cannot move democratic goal posts to suit your own position.
    No, it's the reality of politics where the status quo is up against change . Scotland teaches us this to be fact

    Once a change is made, you can never go back.
    You do realise that the SNP post Indy Referendum bounce peaked last year, and now they are going to have to finally focus on the mess they have made of domestic issues like Education, Police Scotland, NHS and Named Person law.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    Moses_ said:

    I am going to say only one thing about the polls. I don't like them.......Why?

    I want a decisive result.

    I want whatever side wins to win by such significant majority that the other side is so well beaten that it does not bitch for the next 10. Years about the result.!!!!


    That is all.....

    Leave by 1 vote is a decisive result. Remain with anything less than 60% isn't
    Rubbish! You cannot move democratic goal posts to suit your own position.
    No, it's the reality of politics where the status quo is up against change . Scotland teaches us this to be fact

    Once a change is made, you can never go back.
    You do realise that the SNP post Indy Referendum bounce peaked last year, and now they are going to have to finally focus on the mess they have made of domestic issues like Education, Police Scotland, NHS and Named Person law.
    Sigh.

    If the yes had got over the line by 1 vote in Scotland , it would have been decisive for ever. There would have been no campaign to restore the union afterwards. It would have been a cast iron fact.

    The no vote didn't kill off nationalism, it's adherents just saw defeat and a step on the journey.

    If you can't grasp thka, I don't know what else to say.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    Important to note that Curtice is using the "all respondents" numbers for ORB in his Poll of Polls (ie Remain +12, not Remain +1) - though he hasn't updated it yet.

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,928

    Once a change is made, you can never go back.

    Aren't we voting to revert a change to the status quo?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited June 2016

    Deep thought - a question, a genuine one as I dont have the answer and am too emotionally involved to be able to give a balanced one- it involves John Major as he has been invoked by Roger and others tonight:

    In 1992 the Conservatives he led got the largest ever vote in a General Election and Tony Blair's majorities were caused as much by those voters staying at home as by voters flocking to Labour. What if those 'missing' Major 92 voters are the ones who are potentially boosting turnout? What if those are the voters who are 'coming home?' And if they are surely that a) boosts Leave and b) like Banquo's ghost haunt the pollsters?

    A lot of ifs and buts I know, yet surely those ex-Major C1/2 voters are more likely to vote this time than students away from uni?

    Thoughts?

    Ah, the eternal right wing hope of the missing 1992 voters. Same answer as always - most of them were pensioners who have long since popped it.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited June 2016

    Deep thought - a question, a genuine one as I dont have the answer and am too emotionally involved to be able to give a balanced one- it involves John Major as he has been invoked by Roger and others tonight:

    In 1992 the Conservatives he led got the largest ever vote in a General Election and Tony Blair's majorities were caused as much by those voters staying at home as by voters flocking to Labour. What if those 'missing' Major 92 voters are the ones who are potentially boosting turnout? What if those are the voters who are 'coming home?' And if they are surely that a) boosts Leave and b) like Banquo's ghost haunt the pollsters?

    A lot of ifs and buts I know, yet surely those ex-Major C1/2 voters are more likely to vote this time than students away from uni?

    Thoughts?

    Ah, the eternal right wing hope of the missing 1992 voters. Same answer as always - most of them were pensioners who have long since popped it.
    No one else has become a pensioner since ?

    Major's problem was Lamont in the same way Cameron's is Osborne ;)

    Those famous words:
    "Rising unemployment and the recession have been the price that we have had to pay to get inflation down. That price is well worth paying."
    Drove away loyal Tories by the thousand.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    edited June 2016
    fitalass said:

    Moses_ said:

    I am going to say only one thing about the polls. I don't like them.......Why?

    I want a decisive result.

    I want whatever side wins to win by such significant majority that the other side is so well beaten that it does not bitch for the next 10. Years about the result.!!!!


    That is all.....

    Leave by 1 vote is a decisive result. Remain with anything less than 60% isn't
    Rubbish! You cannot move democratic goal posts to suit your own position.
    Some contests are asymmetric. For example, if Northern Ireland voted by 50% + 1 to join the Republic, that would be that. Defenders of a long-standing status quo have to win every time. Their opponents only have to win once.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    What really sealed the doom of Major was his speech at Northampton
    http://www.johnmajor.co.uk/page4352.html
    So inflation must go. Ending it cannot be painless. The harsh truth is that if the policy isn’t hurting, it isn’t working.
    Several of my elder relatives, until then loyal Tories never forgave him for that remark.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Sean_F said:



    Some contests are asymmetric. For example, if Northern Ireland voted by 50% + 1 to join the Republic, that would be that.

    somehow, I don't imagine that would be that. at least not in that case.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Sean_F said:



    Some contests are asymmetric. For example, if Northern Ireland voted by 50% + 1 to join the Republic, that would be that.

    somehow, I don't imagine that would be that. at least not in that case.
    Substitute "Falkland Islands" for "Northern Ireland" and assume it is referring to the appropriate South American republic then ;)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    Indigo said:

    Deep thought - a question, a genuine one as I dont have the answer and am too emotionally involved to be able to give a balanced one- it involves John Major as he has been invoked by Roger and others tonight:

    In 1992 the Conservatives he led got the largest ever vote in a General Election and Tony Blair's majorities were caused as much by those voters staying at home as by voters flocking to Labour. What if those 'missing' Major 92 voters are the ones who are potentially boosting turnout? What if those are the voters who are 'coming home?' And if they are surely that a) boosts Leave and b) like Banquo's ghost haunt the pollsters?

    A lot of ifs and buts I know, yet surely those ex-Major C1/2 voters are more likely to vote this time than students away from uni?

    Thoughts?

    Ah, the eternal right wing hope of the missing 1992 voters. Same answer as always - most of them were pensioners who have long since popped it.
    No one else has become a pensioner since ?

    Major's problem was Lamont in the same way Cameron's is Osborne ;)

    Those famous words:
    "Rising unemployment and the recession have been the price that we have had to pay to get inflation down. That price is well worth paying."
    Drove away loyal Tories by the thousand.

    It's not possible to overestimate the sense of betrayal and anger among middle class former Conservatives in North London, after 1992.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited June 2016
    Sean_F said:

    It's not possible to overestimate the sense of betrayal and anger among middle class former Conservatives in North London, after 1992.

    Both my parents were card carrying party members from the shires prior to that, in 1997 they both voted for Blair. I didn't have a mortgage so I still voted for Major.
  • Indigo said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's not possible to overestimate the sense of betrayal and anger among middle class former Conservatives in North London, after 1992.

    Both my parents were card carrying party members from the shires prior to that, in 1997 they both voted for Blair. I didn't have a mortgage so I still voted for Major.
    "Card -carrying Tories" ..... isn't that a contradiction in terms?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited June 2016
    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    GIN1138 said:

    How is it possible that the guy writing this:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/06/the-leave-campaign-cant-keep-dodging-the-biggest-question/

    Is the same person that made this speech:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ26SmDzxHE


    All the so called "euroscepticism" from Hague was just an act. Did he ever mean any of that "Save The Pound" stuff in 2001? I've got my doubts...

    To be a Eurosceptic doesn't mean you're a Leaver.
    Hits nail on the head.
    Well you better tell Fake Dave,he mentioned leaving and half your party.
    Happily managed to get through whole EU Ref campaign without resorting to petty name calling of politicians. Been amazed at how the #Brexit crew have now begun to resemble the cybernats during the Indy Ref, neither attractive or a positive contribution to the debate.
    Hallo Fitalass

    If you'd gone to sleep and woken up a year later you'd think Cameron had changed his name to Miliband. The Tories on here make Iago look wholesome
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