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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest slot: Politics after Brexit
It’s only quite recently that most serious commentators took the prospect of a Leave vote seriously. A consequence of that is that there has been very little serious analysis of what would happen next in political terms. Leave say we’ll feel free at last, Remain say the pound will plummet and we’ll risk an economic crisis. But what, specifically, will happen in terms of Government?
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Errrr, I'll get my coat.
Oh, yes it is......the last time MPs gave 'activists' their say they got IDS.....they won't make that mistake twice.....
The only one due I'm aware of is the Opinium online poll for The Observer, that usually comes out between 5pm and 9pm.
But there might be others.
I'm busy for most of today, so will do a round up this evening
http://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-the-anti-boris-who-just-might-be-britains-next-pm/
I suspect that things will calm down far more quickly than people imagine. After all, the Eurozone seems to be in perpetual crisis but keeps on going, whereas this can be more sensibly navigated. I suspect that Gove's comment about an economic plan will address this next week.
The rest I would not bet on.
I very much agree that Boris would enjoy a decent honeymoon.
@HurstLlama - you haven't upset me - just that my Mum's family was running the East India Company and my Dad's messing about in the City at the time you mentioned: you manged to clock them both around the head at the same time... The City has a role in redeploying the nation's savings in the most effective way. In many countries that's just in domestic industry; we have a much broader perspective reflecting our global heritage. In fact I think until something like the mid 2000s, the dividends on overseas investments that our Victorian ancestors made exceeded the payments we were making on foreign investments in the UK.
@Topping: Easy - some short term disruption, but within 3-5 years we will be back to where we were before and then, long-term, will outperform as we can optimise the economic arrangements for our particular needs
I think we need to look at the ladies for the next Conservative Party leader. Patel would be my personal preference, but if Remain wins her careers chances lose and she is anyway, I think, thought of as a bit too hard nosed. As discussed on here last night, Sarah Wollaston (at 66/1) might be worth a flutter.
and the EU ones haven't.
The leave proposal is that everyone is subject to the same system.
(Its also not just a points based system, you just need to get past the points based system before you get to all the same crap that has been there for decades)
How to vote? That is the question........
I am glad I haven't upset you and of course I take your points about the role of the City and the benefits that it has provided. Nonetheless, we do seem to have lost ground somewhat over recent years and I rather think I stand by what I said about gentlemen capitalists and chronic underinvestment in our own industries.
Be that as it may, if we are back on speaking terms, may I ask you for your views on Cameron's successor?
Yesterday at lunch an asset management lady said that she would vote Remain, would not be that fussed if we ended up out but said - and everyone else around the table agreed vigorously - that the campaigns, both of them, were appalling.
Frankly if both sides shut up from now until June 23rd we'd scarcely be any worse off than we are now
But it does not do to be too sentimental about the old City. Plenty of crooks in it and skullduggery aplenty.
If you want to know what went wrong a good start is in Julian Barnes' Letters from London. His essay on the Lloyds (insurance rather than the bank) disaster is a masterpiece. He describes very well what happens when trust is abused and vanishes. And, in essence, that is what has happened to the City and what it is now - very painfully and slowly - trying to rebuild. A pity that so many grandees and others forgot the old saying: "Trust comes in at a walk and goes out at a gallop."
A saying that politicians might do well to remember, too.
Maybe I am just getting old and senile (Herself thinks so) but I am beginning to see the truth in the old idea that the influence of power is actually trumped by the power of influence.
It can be avoided.
In view of the urgency of the situation the parliamentary party may decide to have an unopposed election as they did with Michael Howard.
A Remain candidate will have no chance,Gove doesn't want the job so that leaves Boris.
It's easy to say "Of course, he'd win big" but a GE at any time is a risk. And if there is economic uncertainty which causes the pound / house prices / stock markets to fall, that isn't a good time to have a GE.
Surely he would say: "The public have elected a majority Con Government and the public have voted to leave the EU. We have a massive job now over the next two years to leave the EU on the best possible terms and we are going to get on with that - right now, without any distractions".
Also remember - the first 3 months after the referendum will have been taken up with the Con leadership election. Is it then going to make sense for a further significant period to be taken up with a GE?
Finally, if it's Boris - he's plotted his whole life to be PM. Why risk losing it as soon as he's got it? And he would be guaranteed to have a momentous term in office - he would know that he would be the PM to take the UK out of the EU - because he would know that we would be out before a GE in 2020.
a) "the total amount of stuff produced over the decade will be about the same", or
b "the growth rate at the end of the decade will be the same as at the beginning"?
The two sentences don't mean the same thing. Which one did you mean?
Following your prognostications to their logical conclusion, the only way for Labour to get into power before 2020 is to vote Leave. That's if you have faith in your leader.
Ah, I see the problem now.
Also, the EU will want to calm the markets as well. The last thing they need is their industry put at threat by short term worries.
I rather suspect that on June the 24th there will be soothing noises, promises that change will be managed and deals done.
Much regret that it has come to this and so on an so forth.
Then the negotiations will happen, which will be a bit awkward because free movement can't be on the table (UK leave side) or off it (EU side).
The best way forward after some blunt behind the scenes discussions would be a UK net contribution of say £4 billion dressed up in some way then quietly forgotten or inflated away later with full reciprocal access to markets but we will see what happens.
I have just got back from my first canvassing session in SE London. It was in a ward with Conservative counsellors in a Conservative constituency, and was just over 60% for Leave. Lots were out, but encouraging nonetheless.
Is he even a member? Never seen him say so.
I'm not sure of details but if Con (obviously deliberately) lose a vote of confidence doesn't Corbyn then get the chance to form a Government? If so, he could insist on being given that chance and wouldn't the whole thing then become incredibly messy?
No one else - since Mark of @Easterross fame has the credentials.
- mentions Google surveys - I have never heard of them but I am a luddite.
"A report by the Pew Research Center found that the results from Google’s surveys are typically quite similar to the results from Pew’s telephone surveys"
LOL. They might not even be able sensibly to go that far.
The other part is negotiating with other trade partners, perhaps starting with Mexico (the other home of the Cornish pasty) and New Zealand who have already expressed an interest. The idea should be that by the time (or preferably before) we actually leave the current arrangement we have several deals in place with others to follow.
We've had dozens and dozens of Boris As Next Leader threads over the years. I've seen little evidence amongst Tory members for it. There's none on here.
Colour me very sceptical.
I don't see much evidence of small-stateism in UKIP. If anything their line is that by annulling EU membership it will free up resources for state expansion. Hence talk of pumping more cash into the NHS and welfare payments for the natives. Of course this makes sense in a way. If they are to survive post-Brexit (which I doubt) they'll need to find favour in the old Labour industrial rust belt. (Southern Tories, I think, find them a bit tacky and ill-bred.) Not much scope for intellectually pure small-state theory up there.
You miss my point, I suspect deliberately, as I've already told you that Ukip are finished. But that leaves 4m who voted for them at the GE and lots of other sympathisers, among them tribalists that would never vote for the political enemy.
Ukip will disband, but they leave millions of supporters looking for a home, a gap in the market.
The more I think about it, with my old Civil Service hat on, the more complex the problem of negotiating our way out of the EU becomes. No wonder the CS is so against it.
[EDIT: I'm coming across as too agressive here, for which I apologise. It's just that the phraseology leads itself to ambiguity. Please feel free to tell me to fuckoff if I'm getting too interrogative]
I expect there would be some open doors to knock on as well.
What is the CS?
How Brexiteers can claim this is racist perplexes me. It's a fatal flaw in their argument.
There you go, I did it for you.
I suspect Sean means that the net output of the economy in GDP terms (most of which isn't made of stuff we make but services) will be the same in 10 years time regardless.
I think that will depend on how fast we negotiate our own trade deals. We could be up out by comparison if we do so quickly.
Ukip will disband, but they leave millions of supporters looking for a home, a gap in the market.'
Farage has promised to cut spending, especially on overseas aid and take the top tax rate back to 40%, he has also pushed for more insurance in healthcare provision and a contributory approach to welfare but as the party has tried to appeal to Labour voters too that has got a little pushed to the side. If Leave win the Tory Party will move to the right so there will be less need for a small-state party and with the UK out of the EU UKIP will gradually disband. If Remain win narrowly UKIP will be stronger than ever and become the main focus of resistance to Cameron and Osborne
I have always thought Boris will win the Tory leadership election, and nothing so far has dissuaded me.
Unless of course you disagree?
Don't get me wrong I am all for leaving the EU and have been for twenty years or more, but I was just thinking through what it would mean in terms of process.
The CS is the Civil Service, sorry.
Personally I couldn't care less about getting immigration down to the 10s of thousands (and have said so repeatedly). I do not like racism. What about you? Do you care about getting immigration down? Do you support having a racist policy?