Mr. Llama, must agree. The options are Exit and Integrate. The status quo or the mythical beast of us reforming the EU to suit us isn't on the table.
Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, the Czechs and Poland will be leaving with us then
The real prize for Europe here is Brexit breaking the back of the federalist anti-democratic EU empire (which has had its day) and establishing a new vision of a Europe of free self-governing and colloborating national democracies.
Sorry to bang on about this, but EFTA/EEA as a destination would have made that much more likely, especially as it would be the natural next step for Denmark, and Sweden. Indeed, I think it is highly likely (maybe even probable) that EFTA/EEA could have been rebranded as "Associate Member" or somesuch, so outside the political structure, the CAP, the CFP, the ECJ etc.
Also, Leave would be 10 points clear, if the decision had been to go with EFTA/EEA from the start.
5 of the original EFTA countries including us are now members of the EU. The others joined after us, so it is not obvious as to me why they would be inclined to revert to their former status. Inparticular were we to revert to EFTA membership we would completely dominate it with 80% of the population and about 2/3 of the GDP. It would be a far more dominant position than the EZ has within the EU.
I think the EU will continue to evolve, whether or not we are in it, but I think that there is little appetite for expansion either geographically or in terms of powers. The proposed EU army is a curiosity, but one that does not bother me. I can see a role for such a force in terms of border defence, and also supporting the baltics in particular, but cannot get excited about it either way.
A posting which unfortunately tends to show a lack of understanding of EFTA. We would not dominate it in the way you claim because unlike the EU it requires unanimity of decisions and does not base voting rights on proportion of the population. British membership of EFTA would give a lot more power to the organisation without diminishing the power of the other countries within the organisation.
In terms of political decision making we would then have the same voting rights as Lichtenstein, but the economic weight would very heavily be UK based. In practice when negotiating with the EU our interests would predominate. I cannot see it remaining a happy relationship for long, which is why so many original EFTA members also left to join the EU.
Also, Leave would be 10 points clear, if the decision had been to go with EFTA/EEA from the start.
I was with you until this bit, which I just dont believe.
Remain would still be banging on about the same things, even if they were more obviously a lie to the cognoscenti than they are now. Project Fear would be unchanged, because most of the voters they are playing to would not know that EFTA covered them in many case. At the same time a lot of the anti-immigration vote, some of the kippers, lots of Old Labour, some of the Tory right, would all decide that the risk wasnt worth the reward since they were not getting the key thing they wanted, and would have either stayed at home, or voted Remain.
You and I are just going to have to agree to disagree on this one. But I know a lot of business people - guys who've started companies with a hundred employees and 20m of sales - who are going to reluctantly vote Remain. They are EFTA > EU > CO.
And they each get one vote. Their employees who, to take a recent example, can't get a council house for their disabled mother because the houses have been assigned to immigrants, get one vote as well, as do the employees that are having to wait two weeks for a doctor, or the employees that don't like their kids are a minority at school in what they would consider their own country.
An unbelievably sneering piece from Mark Easton on the Six O'Clock News tonight. He visited Knowsley on Merseyside and described it as the most English and Christian place in the country (courtesy of a high Catholic population, no doubt) and then called them the least educated people in Britain. Unsurprisingly he found a number of people concerned with immigration and mention was made of council houses.
What's interesting is the result in Knowsley from last year:
Labour - 39,628 (78.1%) Ukip - 4,973 (9.8%) Conservative - 3,367 (6.6%) Liberal Democrat - 1,490 (2.9%) Green - 1,270 (2.5%)
For a seat which is very white, that's quite an under performance by Ukip (admittedly the candidate was Louise Bours who I cannot stand). This suggests to me that these are some of the most loyal Labour voters in the country. Yet that doesn't mean they don't have concerns about things such as immigration.
Politics is at a bit of a crossroads in many ways. I think both Conservatives and Labour should be careful about taking their core vote for granted. The next few years could be very interesting.
Mr. Llama, must agree. The options are Exit and Integrate. The status quo or the mythical beast of us reforming the EU to suit us isn't on the table.
Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, the Czechs and Poland will be leaving with us then
The real prize for Europe here is Brexit breaking the back of the federalist anti-democratic EU empire (which has had its day) and establishing a new vision of a Europe of free self-governing and colloborating national democracies.
Sorry to bang on about this, but EFTA/EEA as a destination would have made that much more likely, especially as it would be the natural next step for Denmark, and Sweden. Indeed, I think it is highly likely (maybe even probable) that EFTA/EEA could have been rebranded as "Associate Member" or somesuch, so outside the political structure, the CAP, the CFP, the ECJ etc.
Also, Leave would be 10 points clear, if the decision had been to go with EFTA/EEA from the start.
5 of the original EFTA countries including us are now members of the EU. The others joined after us, so it is not obvious as to me why they would be inclined to revert to their former status. Inparticular were we to revert to EFTA membership we would completely dominate it with 80% of the population and about 2/3 of the GDP. It would be a far more dominant position than the EZ has within the EU.
I think the EU will continue to evolve, whether or not we are in it, but I think that there is little appetite for expansion either geographically or in terms of powers. The proposed EU army is a curiosity, but one that does not bother me. I can see a role for such a force in terms of border defence, and also supporting the baltics in particular, but cannot get excited about it either way.
We have led this group of nations repeatedly. Firstly by forming the EFTA, then by joining the EEC. It is not at all unreasonable that we could lead by example yet again were we to leave. Especially if the doom mongering turns out to be overblown codswallop as is likely. Most doom mongering is.
In terms of political decision making we would then have the same voting rights as Lichtenstein, but the economic weight would very heavily be UK based. In practice when negotiating with the EU our interests would predominate. I cannot see it remaining a happy relationship for long, which is why so many original EFTA members also left to join the EU.
No it wasn't. The UK was the first EFTA member to join the EU. The others ho joined later did so because the EEA didn't exist at the time so EFTA membership meant they did not have access to the single market. The EU and EFTA only agreed the EEA after Sweden, Finland and Austria had agreed accession terms to the EU. Even then there was some doubt in all three countries because the EEA had not been on the table when they agreed the final stages of EU membership. No EFTA country has joined the EU since the EEA was established and it is very doubtful any would had the EEA existed earlier.
She has personal experience on the A10 issue, and it is a hell of a good ground attack aircraft, being incredibly robust to groundfire.
Air force people always prefer pointy nose fast jets to practical proven systems...
Th A10, is very good when it is on target, but its relatively low speed means that it has slow transit times when called for immediate assistance when not already overhead. It's often better to have something that can get to you quickly and do a reasonable job rather than something that gets there late but is perfect for the job.
An unbelievably sneering piece from Mark Easton on the Six O'Clock News tonight. He visited Knowsley on Merseyside and described it as the most English and Christian place in the country (courtesy of a high Catholic population, no doubt) and then called them the least educated people in Britain. Unsurprisingly he found a number of people concerned with immigration and mention was made of council houses.
What's interesting is the result in Knowsley from last year:
Labour - 39,628 (78.1%) Ukip - 4,973 (9.8%) Conservative - 3,367 (6.6%) Liberal Democrat - 1,490 (2.9%) Green - 1,270 (2.5%)
For a seat which is very white, that's quite an under performance by Ukip (admittedly the candidate was Louise Bours who I cannot stand). This suggests to me that these are some of the most loyal Labour voters in the country. Yet that doesn't mean they don't have concerns about things such as immigration.
Politics is at a bit of a crossroads in many ways. I think both Conservatives and Labour should be careful about taking their core vote for granted. The next few years could be very interesting.
I was up there this afternoon, visiting some of my tenants. I'll try and listen in on catchup.
Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!
Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!
Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
I've just worked out the average of the 16 polls on OGH's list with fieldwork starting on or after 1 May. It's Remain 52 Leave 48.
And the average of the five most recent ones, with fieldwork beginning on or after 18 May is ..... Remain 52 Leave 48.
These polls exclude Northern Ireland and overseas electors,both of which can be assumed to be heavily Remain (a poll of NI earlier this week was 61% Remain IIRC). If my maths is correct a 60-40 NI vote would add roughly 0.75% to the Remain lead in the UK (perhaps more if turnout in NI was higher than GB, as it usually is).
Bearing this in mind it seems reasonable to say that Remain are currently maintaining a lead of about 5 points. And the last poll to show Leave in a winning position after adding in NI and overseas electors was ICM of 13-15 May.
Well now we have a slightly more level battleground - and Leave are using the advantage to focus on immigration as a new topic, rather than a stale one.
Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!
Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
Oh no, it's much worse than that
(It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
An unbelievably sneering piece from Mark Easton on the Six O'Clock News tonight. He visited Knowsley on Merseyside and described it as the most English and Christian place in the country (courtesy of a high Catholic population, no doubt) and then called them the least educated people in Britain. Unsurprisingly he found a number of people concerned with immigration and mention was made of council houses.
What's interesting is the result in Knowsley from last year:
Labour - 39,628 (78.1%) Ukip - 4,973 (9.8%) Conservative - 3,367 (6.6%) Liberal Democrat - 1,490 (2.9%) Green - 1,270 (2.5%)
For a seat which is very white, that's quite an under performance by Ukip (admittedly the candidate was Louise Bours who I cannot stand).
Christian in the English census means Catholic, and in most cases - especially given Merseyside - Irish Catholic. I guess it's not that surprising that Ukip got a poorer result than other areas, given that Ukip is strongly but not exclusively an ethnic-English phenomenon, and seems to have a base among the ressentiment of some of the lower-middle class.
An unbelievably sneering piece from Mark Easton on the Six O'Clock News tonight. He visited Knowsley on Merseyside and described it as the most English and Christian place in the country (courtesy of a high Catholic population, no doubt) and then called them the least educated people in Britain. Unsurprisingly he found a number of people concerned with immigration and mention was made of council houses.
What's interesting is the result in Knowsley from last year:
Labour - 39,628 (78.1%) Ukip - 4,973 (9.8%) Conservative - 3,367 (6.6%) Liberal Democrat - 1,490 (2.9%) Green - 1,270 (2.5%)
For a seat which is very white, that's quite an under performance by Ukip (admittedly the candidate was Louise Bours who I cannot stand). This suggests to me that these are some of the most loyal Labour voters in the country. Yet that doesn't mean they don't have concerns about things such as immigration.
Politics is at a bit of a crossroads in many ways. I think both Conservatives and Labour should be careful about taking their core vote for granted. The next few years could be very interesting.
This referendum campaign has really removed the mask from our new establishment in regards to what they think of the lower orders.
I think it is doing severe damage to both parties core votes as well as encouraging the referendum to be a verdict on the establishment summed up by that seesaw poster.
By establishment I mean the new technocratic liberal left leaving establishment not the much weakened old establishment represented by the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg who are seen as well meaning duffers who are out of touch but with their heart in the right place broadly speaking.
An unbelievably sneering piece from Mark Easton on the Six O'Clock News tonight. He visited Knowsley on Merseyside and described it as the most English and Christian place in the country (courtesy of a high Catholic population, no doubt) and then called them the least educated people in Britain. Unsurprisingly he found a number of people concerned with immigration and mention was made of council houses.
What's interesting is the result in Knowsley from last year:
Labour - 39,628 (78.1%) Ukip - 4,973 (9.8%) Conservative - 3,367 (6.6%) Liberal Democrat - 1,490 (2.9%) Green - 1,270 (2.5%)
For a seat which is very white, that's quite an under performance by Ukip (admittedly the candidate was Louise Bours who I cannot stand).
Christian in the English census means Catholic, and in most cases - especially given Merseyside - Irish Catholic. I guess it's not that surprising that Ukip got a poorer result than other areas, given that Ukip is strongly but not exclusively an ethnic-English phenomenon, and seems to have a base among the ressentiment of some of the lower-middle class.
No it doesn't. Christian in the census means all denominations, not just Catholic.
Mr. L, that seems peculiar given David Miliband isn't an MP and doesn't appear to want to return to being one.
It's nuts. It implies that (1) Corbyn will Labour to the general election, (2) that Labour will lose, (3) that Miliband will stand and win his seat, (4) that Miliband will win the resulting leadership contest.
Even if Corbyn does survive and does then lose (which is not too unlikely), as you say, Miliband seems in no mood to return (though he has time to decide), but even were he to do so, Labour is an enormously long way from electing someone like him. We also shouldn't estimate how much his contacts will have withered through being out of the country for several years so far, and out of parliament for seven years come 2020.
I've just worked out the average of the 16 polls on OGH's list with fieldwork starting on or after 1 May. It's Remain 52 Leave 48.
And the average of the five most recent ones, with fieldwork beginning on or after 18 May is ..... Remain 52 Leave 48.
These polls exclude Northern Ireland and overseas electors,both of which can be assumed to be heavily Remain (a poll of NI earlier this week was 61% Remain IIRC). If my maths is correct a 60-40 NI vote would add roughly 0.75% to the Remain lead in the UK (perhaps more if turnout in NI was higher than GB, as it usually is).
Bearing this in mind it seems reasonable to say that Remain are currently maintaining a lead of about 5 points. And the last poll to show Leave in a winning position after adding in NI and overseas electors was ICM of 13-15 May.
Well now we have a slightly more level battleground - and Leave are using the advantage to focus on immigration as a new topic, rather than a stale one.
We've had three months of the government machine throwing the kitchen sink at this, and yet Leave are level or winning in five of the six online polls and within the MOE on the other.
The PM's trust ratings are awful.
Remain need the phone polls to be right.
There is a lot more doubt involved here than they ever imagined, in my opinion.
An unbelievably sneering piece from Mark Easton on the Six O'Clock News tonight. He visited Knowsley on Merseyside and described it as the most English and Christian place in the country (courtesy of a high Catholic population, no doubt) and then called them the least educated people in Britain. Unsurprisingly he found a number of people concerned with immigration and mention was made of council houses.
What's interesting is the result in Knowsley from last year:
Labour - 39,628 (78.1%) Ukip - 4,973 (9.8%) Conservative - 3,367 (6.6%) Liberal Democrat - 1,490 (2.9%) Green - 1,270 (2.5%)
For a seat which is very white, that's quite an under performance by Ukip (admittedly the candidate was Louise Bours who I cannot stand).
Christian in the English census means Catholic, and in most cases - especially given Merseyside - Irish Catholic. I guess it's not that surprising that Ukip got a poorer result than other areas, given that Ukip is strongly but not exclusively an ethnic-English phenomenon, and seems to have a base among the ressentiment of some of the lower-middle class.
No it doesn't. Christian in the census means all denominations, not just Catholic.
Christian seems to mean bigoted thicko to our establishment
I've just worked out the average of the 16 polls on OGH's list with fieldwork starting on or after 1 May. It's Remain 52 Leave 48.
And the average of the five most recent ones, with fieldwork beginning on or after 18 May is ..... Remain 52 Leave 48.
These polls exclude Northern Ireland and overseas electors,both of which can be assumed to be heavily Remain (a poll of NI earlier this week was 61% Remain IIRC). If my maths is correct a 60-40 NI vote would add roughly 0.75% to the Remain lead in the UK (perhaps more if turnout in NI was higher than GB, as it usually is).
Bearing this in mind it seems reasonable to say that Remain are currently maintaining a lead of about 5 points. And the last poll to show Leave in a winning position after adding in NI and overseas electors was ICM of 13-15 May.
Well now we have a slightly more level battleground - and Leave are using the advantage to focus on immigration as a new topic, rather than a stale one.
We've had three months of the government machine throwing the kitchen sink at this, and yet Leave are level or winning in five of the six online polls and within the MOE on the other.
The PM's trust ratings are awful.
Remain need the phone polls to be right.
There is a lot more doubt involved here than they ever imagined, in my opinion.
Sadly, Remain only needs the results to be a tiny bit closer than the internet polls. We need the phone polls to be monumentally wrong.
Mr. L, that seems peculiar given David Miliband isn't an MP and doesn't appear to want to return to being one.
Serious question. Are there any Cameroons who would like David Miliband as a successor to Cameron? Appeals to the electorate, would help keep Corbyn out of power and maybe not a world away from Cameron politically.
Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!
Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
Oh no, it's much worse than that
(It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
(NB - the odds of who gets promoted and in which order is a function of the results - you don't have to worry about them.)
Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!
Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
Oh no, it's much worse than that
(It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
The number of combinations is something about three others of magnitude more than:
An unbelievably sneering piece from Mark Easton on the Six O'Clock News tonight. He visited Knowsley on Merseyside and described it as the most English and Christian place in the country (courtesy of a high Catholic population, no doubt) and then called them the least educated people in Britain. Unsurprisingly he found a number of people concerned with immigration and mention was made of council houses.
What's interesting is the result in Knowsley from last year:
Labour - 39,628 (78.1%) Ukip - 4,973 (9.8%) Conservative - 3,367 (6.6%) Liberal Democrat - 1,490 (2.9%) Green - 1,270 (2.5%)
For a seat which is very white, that's quite an under performance by Ukip (admittedly the candidate was Louise Bours who I cannot stand).
Christian in the English census means Catholic, and in most cases - especially given Merseyside - Irish Catholic. I guess it's not that surprising that Ukip got a poorer result than other areas, given that Ukip is strongly but not exclusively an ethnic-English phenomenon, and seems to have a base among the ressentiment of some of the lower-middle class.
No it doesn't. Christian in the census means all denominations, not just Catholic.
Let me reiterate in a more literal way: Strongly "Christian" areas in the Census means strongly Catholic areas, with a couple of exceptions in and around London. And in most of England, Catholics tend not to be mainly Italians or recusants (or even Poles).
Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!
Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
Oh no, it's much worse than that
(It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
(NB - the odds of who gets promoted and in which order is a function of the results - you don't have to worry about them.)
You do have to worry, because if two teams end up on the same number of points, then goal difference determines order, and therefore who they play in the next round. Plus, because of the way four third place teams go through, you have an extra level of complexity.
Mr. L, that seems peculiar given David Miliband isn't an MP and doesn't appear to want to return to being one.
Serious question. Are there any Cameroons who would like David Miliband as a successor to Cameron? Appeals to the electorate, would help keep Corbyn out of power and maybe not a world away from Cameron politically.
As a white Catholic living just outside the Knowsley boundary, I can assure you that the Labour voters here are very tribal. It's almost an act of faith. They wouldn't even consider voting Tory, and voting Ukip is breaking the habit of a lifetime.
It's you Southerners, you see. You all earn fortunes screwed from the mouths of Northern babes. They dislike Mancs but as for Londoners ...
An unbelievably sneering piece from Mark Easton on the Six O'Clock News tonight. He visited Knowsley on Merseyside and described it as the most English and Christian place in the country (courtesy of a high Catholic population, no doubt) and then called them the least educated people in Britain. Unsurprisingly he found a number of people concerned with immigration and mention was made of council houses.
What's interesting is the result in Knowsley from last year:
Labour - 39,628 (78.1%) Ukip - 4,973 (9.8%) Conservative - 3,367 (6.6%) Liberal Democrat - 1,490 (2.9%) Green - 1,270 (2.5%)
For a seat which is very white, that's quite an under performance by Ukip (admittedly the candidate was Louise Bours who I cannot stand).
Christian in the English census means Catholic, and in most cases - especially given Merseyside - Irish Catholic. I guess it's not that surprising that Ukip got a poorer result than other areas, given that Ukip is strongly but not exclusively an ethnic-English phenomenon, and seems to have a base among the ressentiment of some of the lower-middle class.
No it doesn't. Christian in the census means all denominations, not just Catholic.
That's right, the Census doesn't differentiate between denominations of religions. As an aside there was a free text field so people could write in Catholic, Sunni etc. We found 32 people who put "Pompey 'til I die".
However, the areas with the highest proportion of Christians tend to be places with Catholics - especially the North West. I think EPG makes a fair point about Ukip appealing people from a different socio-cultural background. What I was getting at is that even if people in places like Knowsley look as loyal to Labour as they ever have, this doesn't mean that they don't share the concerns of other working class voters.
Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!
Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
Oh no, it's much worse than that
(It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
(NB - the odds of who gets promoted and in which order is a function of the results - you don't have to worry about them.)
You do have to worry, because if two teams end up on the same number of points, then goal difference determines order, and therefore who they play in the next round. Plus, because of the way four third place teams go through, you have an extra level of complexity.
But its not a purely random event though. The result of getting a result right in the group stages should be more 0.333% if you're not just being purely random.
Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!
Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
Oh no, it's much worse than that
(It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
(NB - the odds of who gets promoted and in which order is a function of the results - you don't have to worry about them.)
I was thinking about this - essentially you are being given 2-1 on each result, and evens on the sole win/loss. So like a placepot on the horses it makes sense to go for the favourite each time (Draw only if two very low average scoring teams play each other)
Your odds would be better than 1/3 for each match if you adopted this strategy, increasing your overall odds.
However that could decrease your expected value if the pot is split by anyone employing the same strategy...
Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!
Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
Oh no, it's much worse than that
(It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
(NB - the odds of who gets promoted and in which order is a function of the results - you don't have to worry about them.)
You do have to worry, because if two teams end up on the same number of points, then goal difference determines order, and therefore who they play in the next round. Plus, because of the way four third place teams go through, you have an extra level of complexity.
But its not a purely random event though. The result of getting a result right in the group stages should be more 0.333% if you're not just being purely random.
You're absolutely correct. So, let's assume you can predict results with 65% accuracy in the group stages, and (because of the lack of a draw option) 75% in the knock out.
Your chance is still 1 in something with lots of zeroes to one. (There are about 10 zeroes assuming no difficulties with third places and no goal difference issues. And 13 if we guesstimate those.)
Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!
Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
Oh no, it's much worse than that
(It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
The number of combinations is something about three others of magnitude more than:
36^3 * 15^2
There are about 85 zeros on that baby.
Are there? I make it approximately 5 with 21 zeros on it. Which is five sextillion or less than an English quadrillion (though we don't really use English names for numbers anymore.
As a white Catholic living just outside the Knowsley boundary, I can assure you that the Labour voters here are very tribal. It's almost an act of faith. They wouldn't even consider voting Tory, and voting Ukip is breaking the habit of a lifetime.
It's you Southerners, you see. You all earn fortunes screwed from the mouths of Northern babes. They dislike Mancs but as for Londoners ...
It seems to be a quirk of UKIPs appeal that it is stronger in the east of England, not just in the south but up along the east coast, up through Yorkshire and into places like Sunderland.
Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!
Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
Oh no, it's much worse than that
(It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
The number of combinations is something about three others of magnitude more than:
36^3 * 15^2
There are about 85 zeros on that baby.
Are there? I make it approximately 5 with 21 zeros on it. Which is five sextillion or less than an English quadrillion (though we don't really use English names for numbers anymore.
As a white Catholic living just outside the Knowsley boundary, I can assure you that the Labour voters here are very tribal. It's almost an act of faith. They wouldn't even consider voting Tory, and voting Ukip is breaking the habit of a lifetime.
It's you Southerners, you see. You all earn fortunes screwed from the mouths of Northern babes. They dislike Mancs but as for Londoners ...
This sounds very familiar. A place where the people are religiously loyal to the Labour Party, but are thinking about voting against their recommendation in the referendum. Oh, and the Labour Party are on the same side as the Tories.
As a white Catholic living just outside the Knowsley boundary, I can assure you that the Labour voters here are very tribal. It's almost an act of faith. They wouldn't even consider voting Tory, and voting Ukip is breaking the habit of a lifetime.
It's you Southerners, you see. You all earn fortunes screwed from the mouths of Northern babes. They dislike Mancs but as for Londoners ...
But We hate Manchester United. We hate Liverpool too, We hate Leeds United But Hammers we love you!
Breaks off for a chorus of "We’re forever blowing bubbles."
However, you should find out what Chelsea fans sing aboiut Liverpool!
Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!
Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
Oh no, it's much worse than that
(It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
The number of combinations is something about three others of magnitude more than:
36^3 * 15^2
There are about 85 zeros on that baby.
Are there? I make it approximately 5 with 21 zeros on it. Which is five sextillion or less than an English quadrillion (though we don't really use English names for numbers anymore.
Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!
Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
Oh no, it's much worse than that
(It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
The number of combinations is something about three others of magnitude more than:
36^3 * 15^2
There are about 85 zeros on that baby.
Are there? I make it approximately 5 with 21 zeros on it. Which is five sextillion or less than an English quadrillion (though we don't really use English names for numbers anymore.
Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!
Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
Oh no, it's much worse than that
(It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
The number of combinations is something about three others of magnitude more than:
36^3 * 15^2
There are about 85 zeros on that baby.
Are there? I make it approximately 5 with 21 zeros on it. Which is five sextillion or less than an English quadrillion (though we don't really use English names for numbers anymore.
As a white Catholic living just outside the Knowsley boundary, I can assure you that the Labour voters here are very tribal. It's almost an act of faith. They wouldn't even consider voting Tory, and voting Ukip is breaking the habit of a lifetime.
It's you Southerners, you see. You all earn fortunes screwed from the mouths of Northern babes. They dislike Mancs but as for Londoners ...
It seems to be a quirk of UKIPs appeal that it is stronger in the east of England, not just in the south but up along the east coast, up through Yorkshire and into places like Sunderland.
I haven't the foggiest notion why.
Fishing? I think it's one arguable fact about us joining the EEC, it screwed over our fishermen.
An unbelievably sneering piece from Mark Easton on the Six O'Clock News tonight. He visited Knowsley on Merseyside and described it as the most English and Christian place in the country (courtesy of a high Catholic population, no doubt) and then called them the least educated people in Britain. Unsurprisingly he found a number of people concerned with immigration and mention was made of council houses.
What's interesting is the result in Knowsley from last year:
Labour - 39,628 (78.1%) Ukip - 4,973 (9.8%) Conservative - 3,367 (6.6%) Liberal Democrat - 1,490 (2.9%) Green - 1,270 (2.5%)
For a seat which is very white, that's quite an under performance by Ukip (admittedly the candidate was Louise Bours who I cannot stand).
Christian in the English census means Catholic, and in most cases - especially given Merseyside - Irish Catholic. I guess it's not that surprising that Ukip got a poorer result than other areas, given that Ukip is strongly but not exclusively an ethnic-English phenomenon, and seems to have a base among the ressentiment of some of the lower-middle class.
No it doesn't. Christian in the census means all denominations, not just Catholic.
Yes (in the England and Wales Census), but you are allowed to put whatever you like in the "other" category, and even after coding there are hundred(s?) of categories. There were things like "Santeria", which isn't as improbable as you think given the tens of millions covered.
see h ttp://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/measuring-equality/equality/ethnic-nat-identity-religion/religion/index.html
Having originated from Boston, I go back regularly to visit family. It's changing rapidly and it's an influx of white Catholics. Four out of the five masses on Sunday are in Polish or Lithuanian.
The newcomers like a drink (the drink-drive statistics have shot up) and work hard, but it's the pace of change that seems to be the real issue. It's not London, you know.
Perhaps we can vote Brexit but leave London and Scotland to wallow in the EU?
Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!
Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
Oh no, it's much worse than that
(It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
The number of combinations is something about three others of magnitude more than:
36^3 * 15^2
There are about 85 zeros on that baby.
Are there? I make it approximately 5 with 21 zeros on it. Which is five sextillion or less than an English quadrillion (though we don't really use English names for numbers anymore.
Mr. Llama, must agree. The options are Exit and Integrate. The status quo or the mythical beast of us reforming the EU to suit us isn't on the table.
Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, the Czechs and Poland will be leaving with us then
The real prize for Europe here is Brexit breaking the back of the federalist anti-democratic EU empire (which has had its day) and establishing a new vision of a Europe of free self-governing and colloborating national democracies.
Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!
Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
Oh no, it's much worse than that
(It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
The number of combinations is something about three others of magnitude more than:
36^3 * 15^2
There are about 85 zeros on that baby.
Are there? I make it approximately 5 with 21 zeros on it. Which is five sextillion or less than an English quadrillion (though we don't really use English names for numbers anymore.
Oops, I meant: 3^36 * 2^15
Which also doesn't get to 85 zeros
You also HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR GOAL DIFFERENCE in the group matches.
3^36 * 2^15 = antilog (.4771*36+.3010 * 15) =21.69 = or 5 X 10^21 (just less)
As a white Catholic living just outside the Knowsley boundary, I can assure you that the Labour voters here are very tribal. It's almost an act of faith. They wouldn't even consider voting Tory, and voting Ukip is breaking the habit of a lifetime.
It's you Southerners, you see. You all earn fortunes screwed from the mouths of Northern babes. They dislike Mancs but as for Londoners ...
It seems to be a quirk of UKIPs appeal that it is stronger in the east of England, not just in the south but up along the east coast, up through Yorkshire and into places like Sunderland.
As a white Catholic living just outside the Knowsley boundary, I can assure you that the Labour voters here are very tribal. It's almost an act of faith. They wouldn't even consider voting Tory, and voting Ukip is breaking the habit of a lifetime.
It's you Southerners, you see. You all earn fortunes screwed from the mouths of Northern babes. They dislike Mancs but as for Londoners ...
It seems to be a quirk of UKIPs appeal that it is stronger in the east of England, not just in the south but up along the east coast, up through Yorkshire and into places like Sunderland.
Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!
Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
Oh no, it's much worse than that
(It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
The number of combinations is something about three others of magnitude more than:
36^3 * 15^2
There are about 85 zeros on that baby.
Are there? I make it approximately 5 with 21 zeros on it. Which is five sextillion or less than an English quadrillion (though we don't really use English names for numbers anymore.
Oops, I meant: 3^36 * 2^15
Which also doesn't get to 85 zeros
You also HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR GOAL DIFFERENCE in the group matches.
3^36 * 2^15 = antilog (.4771*36+.3010 * 15) =21.69 = or 5 X 10^21 (just less)
I've just worked out the average of the 16 polls on OGH's list with fieldwork starting on or after 1 May. It's Remain 52 Leave 48.
And the average of the five most recent ones, with fieldwork beginning on or after 18 May is ..... Remain 52 Leave 48.
These polls exclude Northern Ireland and overseas electors,both of which can be assumed to be heavily Remain (a poll of NI earlier this week was 61% Remain IIRC). If my maths is correct a 60-40 NI vote would add roughly 0.75% to the Remain lead in the UK (perhaps more if turnout in NI was higher than GB, as it usually is).
Bearing this in mind it seems reasonable to say that Remain are currently maintaining a lead of about 5 points. And the last poll to show Leave in a winning position after adding in NI and overseas electors was ICM of 13-15 May.
Well now we have a slightly more level battleground - and Leave are using the advantage to focus on immigration as a new topic, rather than a stale one.
We've had three months of the government machine throwing the kitchen sink at this, and yet Leave are level or winning in five of the six online polls and within the MOE on the other.
The PM's trust ratings are awful.
Remain need the phone polls to be right.
There is a lot more doubt involved here than they ever imagined, in my opinion.
No - my average includes all polls, and is in fact weighted toward online polls as there are more of those - 10 online polls and 6 phone with fieldwork starting on or after May 1.
Even an average of online polls only does not show Leave ahead - the figures are 49.8 Remain and 50.2 Leave but when you add in NI and overseas votes Remain would just scrape through.
I've just watched Liam Fox being interviewed by Adam Boulton on SKY. I don't think Liam Fox managed to complete a single sentence due to constant interruptions. All presenters do it but Adam Boulton is one of the worse. It's so bloody frustrating.
It seems to be a quirk of UKIPs appeal that it is stronger in the east of England, not just in the south but up along the east coast, up through Yorkshire and into places like Sunderland.
I haven't the foggiest notion why.
Ports and airports serving Europe? If we assume UKIP support scales to Eastern Europe immigration, then those areas seeing the greatest change due to Eastern European migration will be those that are most predisposed to UKIP.
Incidentally if we go for a 65% chance for group stages and 75% chance for knockout then I make that approximately a one in 406 million chance of getting it right. Which is a lot better than what we were talking about earlier.
Officers from the MPS Counter Terrorism Command, who have been liaising with their counterparts in the United States, have today, Friday, 27 May, seen the sentencing of 33-year-old UK citizen Ming Quang Pham, aka Amin to 40 years imprisonment.
It seems to be a quirk of UKIPs appeal that it is stronger in the east of England, not just in the south but up along the east coast, up through Yorkshire and into places like Sunderland.
I haven't the foggiest notion why.
Ports and airports serving Europe? If we assume UKIP support scales to Eastern Europe immigration, then those areas seeing the greatest change due to Eastern European migration will be those that are most predisposed to UKIP.
There's no one answer. Looking at the modern counties, Ukip's strongest performance was South Yorkshire. (Apart from the Isle of Wight! Which was 1st place Con - 2nd Ukip - 3rd Green.) 7 of the other 8 top-10 counties for Ukip were on the east coast. Plus Staffordshire.
Incidentally if we go for a 65% chance for group stages and 75% chance for knockout then I make that approximately a one in 406 million chance of getting it right. Which is a lot better than what we were talking about earlier.
No it doesn't. Christian in the census means all denominations, not just Catholic.
Here's an interesting thing. The Census has over 1300 religion classifications. Take a look
Enough people put Arsenal for it to be counted. I put Arsene Knows. I'm not sure he does now
A few years ago the Met Police, keen to measure the diversity of its recruits, asked each new copper to fill in a form on day one which included questions on ethnicity and religion. The results came as a surprise to the brass, who found that the most common religion amongst their new recruits was Jedi.
It seems to be a quirk of UKIPs appeal that it is stronger in the east of England, not just in the south but up along the east coast, up through Yorkshire and into places like Sunderland.
I haven't the foggiest notion why.
Ports and airports serving Europe? If we assume UKIP support scales to Eastern Europe immigration, then those areas seeing the greatest change due to Eastern European migration will be those that are most predisposed to UKIP.
There's no one answer. Looking at the modern counties, Ukip's strongest performance was South Yorkshire. (Apart from the Isle of Wight! Which was 1st place Con - 2nd Ukip - 3rd Green.) 7 of the other 8 top-10 counties for Ukip were on the east coast. Plus Staffordshire.
Isn't it just people retiring to the coast, therefore reflecting an older population? The Isle of Wight often attracts retired matelots. Skegness and Mablethorpe are known in Leicester as "the Far East".
Retiring to the Southwest is rather more expensive, so a slightly different demographic.
No it doesn't. Christian in the census means all denominations, not just Catholic.
Here's an interesting thing. The Census has over 1300 religion classifications. Take a look
Enough people put Arsenal for it to be counted. I put Arsene Knows. I'm not sure he does now
A few years ago the Met Police, keen to measure the diversity of its recruits, asked each new copper to fill in a form on day one which included questions on ethnicity and religion. The results came as a surprise to the brass, who found that the most common religion amongst their new recruits was Jedi.
Top IS commander in Fallujah killed. Seems to be a matter of time now until all IS territory is recovered. What happens next is anyone's guess.
I think you’re a tad optimistic; Mosul is going to be tough to retake.
My guess, for the little it’s worth, is that there’ll be a lot of blood spilled, after as well as before!! Quite a lot of it either innocent or not THAT guilty.
No it doesn't. Christian in the census means all denominations, not just Catholic.
Here's an interesting thing. The Census has over 1300 religion classifications. Take a look
Enough people put Arsenal for it to be counted. I put Arsene Knows. I'm not sure he does now
A few years ago the Met Police, keen to measure the diversity of its recruits, asked each new copper to fill in a form on day one which included questions on ethnicity and religion. The results came as a surprise to the brass, who found that the most common religion amongst their new recruits was Jedi.
I put myself down as Jedi in the 2001 census.
Ditto. More Jedi's were counted that year than Jews IIRC.
I've just worked out the average of the 16 polls on OGH's list with fieldwork starting on or after 1 May. It's Remain 52 Leave 48.
And the average of the five most recent ones, with fieldwork beginning on or after 18 May is ..... Remain 52 Leave 48.
These polls exclude Northern Ireland and overseas electors,both of which can be assumed to be heavily Remain (a poll of NI earlier this week was 61% Remain IIRC). If my maths is correct a 60-40 NI vote would add roughly 0.75% to the Remain lead in the UK (perhaps more if turnout in NI was higher than GB, as it usually is).
Bearing this in mind it seems reasonable to say that Remain are currently maintaining a lead of about 5 points. And the last poll to show Leave in a winning position after adding in NI and overseas electors was ICM of 13-15 May.
Well now we have a slightly more level battleground - and Leave are using the advantage to focus on immigration as a new topic, rather than a stale one.
We've had three months of the government machine throwing the kitchen sink at this, and yet Leave are level or winning in five of the six online polls and within the MOE on the other.
The PM's trust ratings are awful.
Remain need the phone polls to be right.
There is a lot more doubt involved here than they ever imagined, in my opinion.
Don't you think it might give a more balanced picture to say that out of the last ten polls Remain have been in the lead in seven two have been tied and one has had Leave in the lead?
Agree with OGH about the stupid £350m figure that Leave are using - £150m would have been fine, but to backtrack and re-spray those vans now would invite ridicule so they're in a no win situation of their own making.
Personally I think the leave campaign need to fight much more on economics - they've got a perfectly good story to tell on the EFTA / EEA model. By continuing on the immigration theme they're merely preaching to the converted - fine to spend a bit of time on it (not as though that's why I'm in the leave camp) to keep that block on side but it needs to be a much more rounded campaign than has been the case over the past week.
Agree with OGH about the stupid £350m figure that Leave are using - £150m would have been fine, but to backtrack and re-spray those vans now would invite ridicule so they're in a no win situation of their own making.
Personally I think the leave campaign need to fight much more on economics - they've got a perfectly good story to tell on the EFTA / EEA model. By continuing on the immigration theme they're merely preaching to the converted - fine to spend a bit of time on it (not as though that's why I'm in the leave camp) to keep that block on side but it needs to be a much more rounded campaign than has been the case over the past week.
I think the levels of immigration are pretty jaw-dropping and likely to sway some of those on the fence. As they might say, 330k immigrants here, 330k immigrants there, pretty soon you're talking a real population increase.
No - my average includes all polls, and is in fact weighted toward online polls as there are more of those - 10 online polls and 6 phone with fieldwork starting on or after May 1.
Even an average of online polls only does not show Leave ahead - the figures are 49.8 Remain and 50.2 Leave but when you add in NI and overseas votes Remain would just scrape through.
Calculating averages where certain pollsters are excessively weighted thanks to their volume of polls is fraught with risk as we saw last spring with Yougov's 10PM daily.
Comments
What's interesting is the result in Knowsley from last year:
Labour - 39,628 (78.1%)
Ukip - 4,973 (9.8%)
Conservative - 3,367 (6.6%)
Liberal Democrat - 1,490 (2.9%)
Green - 1,270 (2.5%)
For a seat which is very white, that's quite an under performance by Ukip (admittedly the candidate was Louise Bours who I cannot stand). This suggests to me that these are some of the most loyal Labour voters in the country. Yet that doesn't mean they don't have concerns about things such as immigration.
Politics is at a bit of a crossroads in many ways. I think both Conservatives and Labour should be careful about taking their core vote for granted. The next few years could be very interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIhMTBxaGc0
(It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
I think it is doing severe damage to both parties core votes as well as encouraging the referendum to be a verdict on the establishment summed up by that seesaw poster.
By establishment I mean the new technocratic liberal left leaving establishment not the much weakened old establishment represented by the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg who are seen as well meaning duffers who are out of touch but with their heart in the right place broadly speaking.
Even if Corbyn does survive and does then lose (which is not too unlikely), as you say, Miliband seems in no mood to return (though he has time to decide), but even were he to do so, Labour is an enormously long way from electing someone like him. We also shouldn't estimate how much his contacts will have withered through being out of the country for several years so far, and out of parliament for seven years come 2020.
The PM's trust ratings are awful.
Remain need the phone polls to be right.
There is a lot more doubt involved here than they ever imagined, in my opinion.
(NB - the odds of who gets promoted and in which order is a function of the results - you don't have to worry about them.)
36^3 * 15^2
There are about 85 zeros on that baby.
As a white Catholic living just outside the Knowsley boundary, I can assure you that the Labour voters here are very tribal. It's almost an act of faith. They wouldn't even consider voting Tory, and voting Ukip is breaking the habit of a lifetime.
It's you Southerners, you see. You all earn fortunes screwed from the mouths of Northern babes. They dislike Mancs but as for Londoners ...
However, the areas with the highest proportion of Christians tend to be places with Catholics - especially the North West. I think EPG makes a fair point about Ukip appealing people from a different socio-cultural background. What I was getting at is that even if people in places like Knowsley look as loyal to Labour as they ever have, this doesn't mean that they don't share the concerns of other working class voters.
Your odds would be better than 1/3 for each match if you adopted this strategy, increasing your overall odds.
However that could decrease your expected value if the pot is split by anyone employing the same strategy...
Your chance is still 1 in something with lots of zeroes to one. (There are about 10 zeroes assuming no difficulties with third places and no goal difference issues. And 13 if we guesstimate those.)
I haven't the foggiest notion why.
3^36 * 2^15
We hate Manchester United.
We hate Liverpool too,
We hate Leeds United
But Hammers we love you!
Breaks off for a chorus of "We’re forever blowing bubbles."
However, you should find out what Chelsea fans sing aboiut Liverpool!
Interesting.
Jeez.
see h ttp://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/measuring-equality/equality/ethnic-nat-identity-religion/religion/index.html
Having originated from Boston, I go back regularly to visit family. It's changing rapidly and it's an influx of white Catholics. Four out of the five masses on Sunday are in Polish or Lithuanian.
The newcomers like a drink (the drink-drive statistics have shot up) and work hard, but it's the pace of change that seems to be the real issue. It's not London, you know.
Perhaps we can vote Brexit but leave London and Scotland to wallow in the EU?
Oops, confusing ^ with e. That'll shut me up
3^36 * 2^15 = antilog (.4771*36+.3010 * 15) =21.69 = or 5 X 10^21 (just less)
http://www.historyonthenet.com/files/fs/civil_war/images/supportmap1.gif
Utterly fascinating albeit depressing little read about todays Labour party.
https://medium.com/@Jews_Resist/on-looking-down-not-up-the-institutional-propagation-of-labours-antisemitism-8805264a768#.5gml433d2
But I’m strongly for REMAIN!
Do have trouble with my East of England relatives, though!
Even an average of online polls only does not show Leave ahead - the figures are 49.8 Remain and 50.2 Leave but when you add in NI and overseas votes Remain would just scrape through.
http://news.met.police.uk/news/uk-citizen-sentenced-to-forty-years-in-us-court-for-terrorism-offences-166587
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/736211252817448960
Against the case to remain in the EU
Corry, Maurice (West Scotland) (Con) - (the MSP later explained that he incorrectly voted for Leave)
Lindhurst, Gordon (Lothian) (Con)
Mitchell, Margaret (Central Scotland) (Con)
Mundell, Oliver (Dumfriesshire) (Con)
Simpson, Graham (Central Scotland) (Con)
Smith, Elaine (Central Scotland) (Lab)
Stewart, Alexander (Mid Scotland and Fife) (Con)
Thomson, Ross (North East Scotland) (Con)
Perhaps even Jack would blush at that!
Retiring to the Southwest is rather more expensive, so a slightly different demographic.
My guess, for the little it’s worth, is that there’ll be a lot of blood spilled, after as well as before!!
Quite a lot of it either innocent or not THAT guilty.
Any new mob will be a lot nastier than what went before.
https://twitter.com/igeldard/status/736262724318076928
"Skegness and Mablethorpe are known in Leicester as "the Far East".
It's all the caravans. Ingoldmells is a good example - wasn't it the largest caravan park in the world?
Leicester ... a nice enough place in the West Midlands.
Personally I think the leave campaign need to fight much more on economics - they've got a perfectly good story to tell on the EFTA / EEA model. By continuing on the immigration theme they're merely preaching to the converted - fine to spend a bit of time on it (not as though that's why I'm in the leave camp) to keep that block on side but it needs to be a much more rounded campaign than has been the case over the past week.
I much prefer taking the latest by each pollster.