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  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. Llama, must agree. The options are Exit and Integrate. The status quo or the mythical beast of us reforming the EU to suit us isn't on the table.

    Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, the Czechs and Poland will be leaving with us then
    The real prize for Europe here is Brexit breaking the back of the federalist anti-democratic EU empire (which has had its day) and establishing a new vision of a Europe of free self-governing and colloborating national democracies.
    Sorry to bang on about this, but EFTA/EEA as a destination would have made that much more likely, especially as it would be the natural next step for Denmark, and Sweden. Indeed, I think it is highly likely (maybe even probable) that EFTA/EEA could have been rebranded as "Associate Member" or somesuch, so outside the political structure, the CAP, the CFP, the ECJ etc.

    Also, Leave would be 10 points clear, if the decision had been to go with EFTA/EEA from the start.
    5 of the original EFTA countries including us are now members of the EU. The others joined after us, so it is not obvious as to me why they would be inclined to revert to their former status. Inparticular were we to revert to EFTA membership we would completely dominate it with 80% of the population and about 2/3 of the GDP. It would be a far more dominant position than the EZ has within the EU.

    I think the EU will continue to evolve, whether or not we are in it, but I think that there is little appetite for expansion either geographically or in terms of powers. The proposed EU army is a curiosity, but one that does not bother me. I can see a role for such a force in terms of border defence, and also supporting the baltics in particular, but cannot get excited about it either way.

    A posting which unfortunately tends to show a lack of understanding of EFTA. We would not dominate it in the way you claim because unlike the EU it requires unanimity of decisions and does not base voting rights on proportion of the population. British membership of EFTA would give a lot more power to the organisation without diminishing the power of the other countries within the organisation.
    In terms of political decision making we would then have the same voting rights as Lichtenstein, but the economic weight would very heavily be UK based. In practice when negotiating with the EU our interests would predominate. I cannot see it remaining a happy relationship for long, which is why so many original EFTA members also left to join the EU.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited May 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Also, Leave would be 10 points clear, if the decision had been to go with EFTA/EEA from the start.

    I was with you until this bit, which I just dont believe.

    Remain would still be banging on about the same things, even if they were more obviously a lie to the cognoscenti than they are now. Project Fear would be unchanged, because most of the voters they are playing to would not know that EFTA covered them in many case. At the same time a lot of the anti-immigration vote, some of the kippers, lots of Old Labour, some of the Tory right, would all decide that the risk wasnt worth the reward since they were not getting the key thing they wanted, and would have either stayed at home, or voted Remain.
    You and I are just going to have to agree to disagree on this one. But I know a lot of business people - guys who've started companies with a hundred employees and 20m of sales - who are going to reluctantly vote Remain. They are EFTA > EU > CO.
    And they each get one vote. Their employees who, to take a recent example, can't get a council house for their disabled mother because the houses have been assigned to immigrants, get one vote as well, as do the employees that are having to wait two weeks for a doctor, or the employees that don't like their kids are a minority at school in what they would consider their own country.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502
    An unbelievably sneering piece from Mark Easton on the Six O'Clock News tonight. He visited Knowsley on Merseyside and described it as the most English and Christian place in the country (courtesy of a high Catholic population, no doubt) and then called them the least educated people in Britain. Unsurprisingly he found a number of people concerned with immigration and mention was made of council houses.

    What's interesting is the result in Knowsley from last year:

    Labour - 39,628 (78.1%)
    Ukip - 4,973 (9.8%)
    Conservative - 3,367 (6.6%)
    Liberal Democrat - 1,490 (2.9%)
    Green - 1,270 (2.5%)

    For a seat which is very white, that's quite an under performance by Ukip (admittedly the candidate was Louise Bours who I cannot stand). This suggests to me that these are some of the most loyal Labour voters in the country. Yet that doesn't mean they don't have concerns about things such as immigration.

    Politics is at a bit of a crossroads in many ways. I think both Conservatives and Labour should be careful about taking their core vote for granted. The next few years could be very interesting.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. Llama, must agree. The options are Exit and Integrate. The status quo or the mythical beast of us reforming the EU to suit us isn't on the table.

    Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, the Czechs and Poland will be leaving with us then
    The real prize for Europe here is Brexit breaking the back of the federalist anti-democratic EU empire (which has had its day) and establishing a new vision of a Europe of free self-governing and colloborating national democracies.
    Sorry to bang on about this, but EFTA/EEA as a destination would have made that much more likely, especially as it would be the natural next step for Denmark, and Sweden. Indeed, I think it is highly likely (maybe even probable) that EFTA/EEA could have been rebranded as "Associate Member" or somesuch, so outside the political structure, the CAP, the CFP, the ECJ etc.

    Also, Leave would be 10 points clear, if the decision had been to go with EFTA/EEA from the start.
    5 of the original EFTA countries including us are now members of the EU. The others joined after us, so it is not obvious as to me why they would be inclined to revert to their former status. Inparticular were we to revert to EFTA membership we would completely dominate it with 80% of the population and about 2/3 of the GDP. It would be a far more dominant position than the EZ has within the EU.

    I think the EU will continue to evolve, whether or not we are in it, but I think that there is little appetite for expansion either geographically or in terms of powers. The proposed EU army is a curiosity, but one that does not bother me. I can see a role for such a force in terms of border defence, and also supporting the baltics in particular, but cannot get excited about it either way.

    We have led this group of nations repeatedly. Firstly by forming the EFTA, then by joining the EEC. It is not at all unreasonable that we could lead by example yet again were we to leave. Especially if the doom mongering turns out to be overblown codswallop as is likely. Most doom mongering is.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236



    In terms of political decision making we would then have the same voting rights as Lichtenstein, but the economic weight would very heavily be UK based. In practice when negotiating with the EU our interests would predominate. I cannot see it remaining a happy relationship for long, which is why so many original EFTA members also left to join the EU.

    No it wasn't. The UK was the first EFTA member to join the EU. The others ho joined later did so because the EEA didn't exist at the time so EFTA membership meant they did not have access to the single market. The EU and EFTA only agreed the EEA after Sweden, Finland and Austria had agreed accession terms to the EU. Even then there was some doubt in all three countries because the EEA had not been on the table when they agreed the final stages of EU membership. No EFTA country has joined the EU since the EEA was established and it is very doubtful any would had the EEA existed earlier.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    RodCrosby said:

    Just had a small wager on Joni Ernst for GOP veep.

    So you can all reply now as to why I've missed something obvious and it was a big mistake :smiley:

    I went off her after watching a few videos. There's something Palinesque about her intonation. McSally also lacks gravitas.
    I think you should look again.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpDVf_PDeVQ
    She has personal experience on the A10 issue, and it is a hell of a good ground attack aircraft, being incredibly robust to groundfire.

    Air force people always prefer pointy nose fast jets to practical proven systems...
    Th A10, is very good when it is on target, but its relatively low speed means that it has slow transit times when called for immediate assistance when not already overhead. It's often better to have something that can get to you quickly and do a reasonable job rather than something that gets there late but is perfect for the job.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    tlg86 said:

    An unbelievably sneering piece from Mark Easton on the Six O'Clock News tonight. He visited Knowsley on Merseyside and described it as the most English and Christian place in the country (courtesy of a high Catholic population, no doubt) and then called them the least educated people in Britain. Unsurprisingly he found a number of people concerned with immigration and mention was made of council houses.

    What's interesting is the result in Knowsley from last year:

    Labour - 39,628 (78.1%)
    Ukip - 4,973 (9.8%)
    Conservative - 3,367 (6.6%)
    Liberal Democrat - 1,490 (2.9%)
    Green - 1,270 (2.5%)

    For a seat which is very white, that's quite an under performance by Ukip (admittedly the candidate was Louise Bours who I cannot stand). This suggests to me that these are some of the most loyal Labour voters in the country. Yet that doesn't mean they don't have concerns about things such as immigration.

    Politics is at a bit of a crossroads in many ways. I think both Conservatives and Labour should be careful about taking their core vote for granted. The next few years could be very interesting.

    I was up there this afternoon, visiting some of my tenants. I'll try and listen in on catchup.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!

    Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!

    Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
    I other words it won't happen.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump: "We have a pathetic 'leader'. In fact we don't even have a leader..."
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    I've just worked out the average of the 16 polls on OGH's list with fieldwork starting on or after 1 May. It's Remain 52 Leave 48.

    And the average of the five most recent ones, with fieldwork beginning on or after 18 May is ..... Remain 52 Leave 48.

    These polls exclude Northern Ireland and overseas electors,both of which can be assumed to be heavily Remain (a poll of NI earlier this week was 61% Remain IIRC). If my maths is correct a 60-40 NI vote would add roughly 0.75% to the Remain lead in the UK (perhaps more if turnout in NI was higher than GB, as it usually is).

    Bearing this in mind it seems reasonable to say that Remain are currently maintaining a lead of about 5 points. And the last poll to show Leave in a winning position after adding in NI and overseas electors was ICM of 13-15 May.

    Well now we have a slightly more level battleground - and Leave are using the advantage to focus on immigration as a new topic, rather than a stale one.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,041
    edited May 2016

    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!

    Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
    Oh no, it's much worse than that

    (It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    tlg86 said:

    An unbelievably sneering piece from Mark Easton on the Six O'Clock News tonight. He visited Knowsley on Merseyside and described it as the most English and Christian place in the country (courtesy of a high Catholic population, no doubt) and then called them the least educated people in Britain. Unsurprisingly he found a number of people concerned with immigration and mention was made of council houses.

    What's interesting is the result in Knowsley from last year:

    Labour - 39,628 (78.1%)
    Ukip - 4,973 (9.8%)
    Conservative - 3,367 (6.6%)
    Liberal Democrat - 1,490 (2.9%)
    Green - 1,270 (2.5%)

    For a seat which is very white, that's quite an under performance by Ukip (admittedly the candidate was Louise Bours who I cannot stand).

    Christian in the English census means Catholic, and in most cases - especially given Merseyside - Irish Catholic. I guess it's not that surprising that Ukip got a poorer result than other areas, given that Ukip is strongly but not exclusively an ethnic-English phenomenon, and seems to have a base among the ressentiment of some of the lower-middle class.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited May 2016
    tlg86 said:

    An unbelievably sneering piece from Mark Easton on the Six O'Clock News tonight. He visited Knowsley on Merseyside and described it as the most English and Christian place in the country (courtesy of a high Catholic population, no doubt) and then called them the least educated people in Britain. Unsurprisingly he found a number of people concerned with immigration and mention was made of council houses.

    What's interesting is the result in Knowsley from last year:

    Labour - 39,628 (78.1%)
    Ukip - 4,973 (9.8%)
    Conservative - 3,367 (6.6%)
    Liberal Democrat - 1,490 (2.9%)
    Green - 1,270 (2.5%)

    For a seat which is very white, that's quite an under performance by Ukip (admittedly the candidate was Louise Bours who I cannot stand). This suggests to me that these are some of the most loyal Labour voters in the country. Yet that doesn't mean they don't have concerns about things such as immigration.

    Politics is at a bit of a crossroads in many ways. I think both Conservatives and Labour should be careful about taking their core vote for granted. The next few years could be very interesting.

    This referendum campaign has really removed the mask from our new establishment in regards to what they think of the lower orders.

    I think it is doing severe damage to both parties core votes as well as encouraging the referendum to be a verdict on the establishment summed up by that seesaw poster.

    By establishment I mean the new technocratic liberal left leaving establishment not the much weakened old establishment represented by the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg who are seen as well meaning duffers who are out of touch but with their heart in the right place broadly speaking.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump: "Believe me, I luuuuurve women! I don't care about the men. I want the women!"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313
    EPG said:

    tlg86 said:

    An unbelievably sneering piece from Mark Easton on the Six O'Clock News tonight. He visited Knowsley on Merseyside and described it as the most English and Christian place in the country (courtesy of a high Catholic population, no doubt) and then called them the least educated people in Britain. Unsurprisingly he found a number of people concerned with immigration and mention was made of council houses.

    What's interesting is the result in Knowsley from last year:

    Labour - 39,628 (78.1%)
    Ukip - 4,973 (9.8%)
    Conservative - 3,367 (6.6%)
    Liberal Democrat - 1,490 (2.9%)
    Green - 1,270 (2.5%)

    For a seat which is very white, that's quite an under performance by Ukip (admittedly the candidate was Louise Bours who I cannot stand).

    Christian in the English census means Catholic, and in most cases - especially given Merseyside - Irish Catholic. I guess it's not that surprising that Ukip got a poorer result than other areas, given that Ukip is strongly but not exclusively an ethnic-English phenomenon, and seems to have a base among the ressentiment of some of the lower-middle class.
    No it doesn't. Christian in the census means all denominations, not just Catholic.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,145

    Mr. L, that seems peculiar given David Miliband isn't an MP and doesn't appear to want to return to being one.

    It's nuts. It implies that (1) Corbyn will Labour to the general election, (2) that Labour will lose, (3) that Miliband will stand and win his seat, (4) that Miliband will win the resulting leadership contest.

    Even if Corbyn does survive and does then lose (which is not too unlikely), as you say, Miliband seems in no mood to return (though he has time to decide), but even were he to do so, Labour is an enormously long way from electing someone like him. We also shouldn't estimate how much his contacts will have withered through being out of the country for several years so far, and out of parliament for seven years come 2020.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2016
    weejonnie said:

    I've just worked out the average of the 16 polls on OGH's list with fieldwork starting on or after 1 May. It's Remain 52 Leave 48.

    And the average of the five most recent ones, with fieldwork beginning on or after 18 May is ..... Remain 52 Leave 48.

    These polls exclude Northern Ireland and overseas electors,both of which can be assumed to be heavily Remain (a poll of NI earlier this week was 61% Remain IIRC). If my maths is correct a 60-40 NI vote would add roughly 0.75% to the Remain lead in the UK (perhaps more if turnout in NI was higher than GB, as it usually is).

    Bearing this in mind it seems reasonable to say that Remain are currently maintaining a lead of about 5 points. And the last poll to show Leave in a winning position after adding in NI and overseas electors was ICM of 13-15 May.

    Well now we have a slightly more level battleground - and Leave are using the advantage to focus on immigration as a new topic, rather than a stale one.
    We've had three months of the government machine throwing the kitchen sink at this, and yet Leave are level or winning in five of the six online polls and within the MOE on the other.

    The PM's trust ratings are awful.

    Remain need the phone polls to be right.

    There is a lot more doubt involved here than they ever imagined, in my opinion.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump: "How can Hillary continue to run? I really don't know how she can..."
  • RobD said:

    EPG said:

    tlg86 said:

    An unbelievably sneering piece from Mark Easton on the Six O'Clock News tonight. He visited Knowsley on Merseyside and described it as the most English and Christian place in the country (courtesy of a high Catholic population, no doubt) and then called them the least educated people in Britain. Unsurprisingly he found a number of people concerned with immigration and mention was made of council houses.

    What's interesting is the result in Knowsley from last year:

    Labour - 39,628 (78.1%)
    Ukip - 4,973 (9.8%)
    Conservative - 3,367 (6.6%)
    Liberal Democrat - 1,490 (2.9%)
    Green - 1,270 (2.5%)

    For a seat which is very white, that's quite an under performance by Ukip (admittedly the candidate was Louise Bours who I cannot stand).

    Christian in the English census means Catholic, and in most cases - especially given Merseyside - Irish Catholic. I guess it's not that surprising that Ukip got a poorer result than other areas, given that Ukip is strongly but not exclusively an ethnic-English phenomenon, and seems to have a base among the ressentiment of some of the lower-middle class.
    No it doesn't. Christian in the census means all denominations, not just Catholic.
    Christian seems to mean bigoted thicko to our establishment
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,041
    Strange isn't it. After Greece, the US is likely to be next country to elect an "insurgent" government.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Strange isn't it. After Greece, the US is likely to be next country to elect an "insurgent" government.

    They do have form for this sort of rebellious behaviour
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,481
    rcs1000 said:

    Strange isn't it. After Greece, the US is likely to be next country to elect an "insurgent" government.

    Do you think Trump will listen to what Mutti Merkel tells him to do?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,041
    chestnut said:

    weejonnie said:

    I've just worked out the average of the 16 polls on OGH's list with fieldwork starting on or after 1 May. It's Remain 52 Leave 48.

    And the average of the five most recent ones, with fieldwork beginning on or after 18 May is ..... Remain 52 Leave 48.

    These polls exclude Northern Ireland and overseas electors,both of which can be assumed to be heavily Remain (a poll of NI earlier this week was 61% Remain IIRC). If my maths is correct a 60-40 NI vote would add roughly 0.75% to the Remain lead in the UK (perhaps more if turnout in NI was higher than GB, as it usually is).

    Bearing this in mind it seems reasonable to say that Remain are currently maintaining a lead of about 5 points. And the last poll to show Leave in a winning position after adding in NI and overseas electors was ICM of 13-15 May.

    Well now we have a slightly more level battleground - and Leave are using the advantage to focus on immigration as a new topic, rather than a stale one.
    We've had three months of the government machine throwing the kitchen sink at this, and yet Leave are level or winning in five of the six online polls and within the MOE on the other.

    The PM's trust ratings are awful.

    Remain need the phone polls to be right.

    There is a lot more doubt involved here than they ever imagined, in my opinion.
    Sadly, Remain only needs the results to be a tiny bit closer than the internet polls. We need the phone polls to be monumentally wrong.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    Mr. L, that seems peculiar given David Miliband isn't an MP and doesn't appear to want to return to being one.

    Serious question. Are there any Cameroons who would like David Miliband as a successor to Cameron? Appeals to the electorate, would help keep Corbyn out of power and maybe not a world away from Cameron politically.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,041

    rcs1000 said:

    Strange isn't it. After Greece, the US is likely to be next country to elect an "insurgent" government.

    Do you think Trump will listen to what Mutti Merkel tells him to do?
    I suspect Trump will have a similar view of Frau Merkel as that other businessman turned politician: Silvio Berlusconi.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited May 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!

    Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
    Oh no, it's much worse than that

    (It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
    Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.

    (NB - the odds of who gets promoted and in which order is a function of the results - you don't have to worry about them.)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump claiming he over-ruled his sexist Dad, to put a woman in charge of the erection of Trump Tower...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,041
    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!

    Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
    Oh no, it's much worse than that

    (It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
    Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
    The number of combinations is something about three others of magnitude more than:

    36^3 * 15^2

    There are about 85 zeros on that baby.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    edited May 2016
    RobD said:

    EPG said:

    tlg86 said:

    An unbelievably sneering piece from Mark Easton on the Six O'Clock News tonight. He visited Knowsley on Merseyside and described it as the most English and Christian place in the country (courtesy of a high Catholic population, no doubt) and then called them the least educated people in Britain. Unsurprisingly he found a number of people concerned with immigration and mention was made of council houses.

    What's interesting is the result in Knowsley from last year:

    Labour - 39,628 (78.1%)
    Ukip - 4,973 (9.8%)
    Conservative - 3,367 (6.6%)
    Liberal Democrat - 1,490 (2.9%)
    Green - 1,270 (2.5%)

    For a seat which is very white, that's quite an under performance by Ukip (admittedly the candidate was Louise Bours who I cannot stand).

    Christian in the English census means Catholic, and in most cases - especially given Merseyside - Irish Catholic. I guess it's not that surprising that Ukip got a poorer result than other areas, given that Ukip is strongly but not exclusively an ethnic-English phenomenon, and seems to have a base among the ressentiment of some of the lower-middle class.
    No it doesn't. Christian in the census means all denominations, not just Catholic.
    Let me reiterate in a more literal way: Strongly "Christian" areas in the Census means strongly Catholic areas, with a couple of exceptions in and around London. And in most of England, Catholics tend not to be mainly Italians or recusants (or even Poles).
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    EPG said:

    Why has PB comments exploded with Breitbart links recently?

    Is it doing a publicity push in the Guidosphere part of Twitter that gets incessantly retweeted on here?

    Or is PB comments itself becoming more like Breitbart?

    It is interesting to see a lot of stories which are reported on Breitbart appear in the Mail and Express days/weeks later.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,041
    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!

    Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
    Oh no, it's much worse than that

    (It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
    Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.

    (NB - the odds of who gets promoted and in which order is a function of the results - you don't have to worry about them.)
    You do have to worry, because if two teams end up on the same number of points, then goal difference determines order, and therefore who they play in the next round. Plus, because of the way four third place teams go through, you have an extra level of complexity.
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    RodCrosby said:

    Trump claiming he over-ruled his sexist Dad, to put a woman in charge of the erection of Trump Tower...

    Are we allowed to write " put a woman in charge of the erection",on this site.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,401

    Mr. L, that seems peculiar given David Miliband isn't an MP and doesn't appear to want to return to being one.

    Serious question. Are there any Cameroons who would like David Miliband as a successor to Cameron? Appeals to the electorate, would help keep Corbyn out of power and maybe not a world away from Cameron politically.
    It’s almost back to 18th C politics, isn’t it!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump just called for a boycott of Macy's...
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,376
    Mr86,

    As a white Catholic living just outside the Knowsley boundary, I can assure you that the Labour voters here are very tribal. It's almost an act of faith. They wouldn't even consider voting Tory, and voting Ukip is breaking the habit of a lifetime.

    It's you Southerners, you see. You all earn fortunes screwed from the mouths of Northern babes. They dislike Mancs but as for Londoners ...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502
    RobD said:

    EPG said:

    tlg86 said:

    An unbelievably sneering piece from Mark Easton on the Six O'Clock News tonight. He visited Knowsley on Merseyside and described it as the most English and Christian place in the country (courtesy of a high Catholic population, no doubt) and then called them the least educated people in Britain. Unsurprisingly he found a number of people concerned with immigration and mention was made of council houses.

    What's interesting is the result in Knowsley from last year:

    Labour - 39,628 (78.1%)
    Ukip - 4,973 (9.8%)
    Conservative - 3,367 (6.6%)
    Liberal Democrat - 1,490 (2.9%)
    Green - 1,270 (2.5%)

    For a seat which is very white, that's quite an under performance by Ukip (admittedly the candidate was Louise Bours who I cannot stand).

    Christian in the English census means Catholic, and in most cases - especially given Merseyside - Irish Catholic. I guess it's not that surprising that Ukip got a poorer result than other areas, given that Ukip is strongly but not exclusively an ethnic-English phenomenon, and seems to have a base among the ressentiment of some of the lower-middle class.
    No it doesn't. Christian in the census means all denominations, not just Catholic.
    That's right, the Census doesn't differentiate between denominations of religions. As an aside there was a free text field so people could write in Catholic, Sunni etc. We found 32 people who put "Pompey 'til I die".

    However, the areas with the highest proportion of Christians tend to be places with Catholics - especially the North West. I think EPG makes a fair point about Ukip appealing people from a different socio-cultural background. What I was getting at is that even if people in places like Knowsley look as loyal to Labour as they ever have, this doesn't mean that they don't share the concerns of other working class voters.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!

    Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
    Oh no, it's much worse than that

    (It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
    Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.

    (NB - the odds of who gets promoted and in which order is a function of the results - you don't have to worry about them.)
    You do have to worry, because if two teams end up on the same number of points, then goal difference determines order, and therefore who they play in the next round. Plus, because of the way four third place teams go through, you have an extra level of complexity.
    But its not a purely random event though. The result of getting a result right in the group stages should be more 0.333% if you're not just being purely random.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    jayfdee said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Trump claiming he over-ruled his sexist Dad, to put a woman in charge of the erection of Trump Tower...

    Are we allowed to write " put a woman in charge of the erection",on this site.
    Trump will shamelessly seduce women into voting for him...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084
    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!

    Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
    Oh no, it's much worse than that

    (It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
    Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.

    (NB - the odds of who gets promoted and in which order is a function of the results - you don't have to worry about them.)
    I was thinking about this - essentially you are being given 2-1 on each result, and evens on the sole win/loss. So like a placepot on the horses it makes sense to go for the favourite each time (Draw only if two very low average scoring teams play each other)

    Your odds would be better than 1/3 for each match if you adopted this strategy, increasing your overall odds.

    However that could decrease your expected value if the pot is split by anyone employing the same strategy...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,041

    rcs1000 said:

    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!

    Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
    Oh no, it's much worse than that

    (It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
    Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.

    (NB - the odds of who gets promoted and in which order is a function of the results - you don't have to worry about them.)
    You do have to worry, because if two teams end up on the same number of points, then goal difference determines order, and therefore who they play in the next round. Plus, because of the way four third place teams go through, you have an extra level of complexity.
    But its not a purely random event though. The result of getting a result right in the group stages should be more 0.333% if you're not just being purely random.
    You're absolutely correct. So, let's assume you can predict results with 65% accuracy in the group stages, and (because of the lack of a draw option) 75% in the knock out.

    Your chance is still 1 in something with lots of zeroes to one. (There are about 10 zeroes assuming no difficulties with third places and no goal difference issues. And 13 if we guesstimate those.)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    rcs1000 said:

    Strange isn't it. After Greece, the US is likely to be next country to elect an "insurgent" government.

    Good evening all. The Greek government is about insurgent as a cream puff.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!

    Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
    Oh no, it's much worse than that

    (It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
    Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
    The number of combinations is something about three others of magnitude more than:

    36^3 * 15^2

    There are about 85 zeros on that baby.
    Are there? I make it approximately 5 with 21 zeros on it. Which is five sextillion or less than an English quadrillion (though we don't really use English names for numbers anymore.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    CD13 said:

    Mr86,

    As a white Catholic living just outside the Knowsley boundary, I can assure you that the Labour voters here are very tribal. It's almost an act of faith. They wouldn't even consider voting Tory, and voting Ukip is breaking the habit of a lifetime.

    It's you Southerners, you see. You all earn fortunes screwed from the mouths of Northern babes. They dislike Mancs but as for Londoners ...

    It seems to be a quirk of UKIPs appeal that it is stronger in the east of England, not just in the south but up along the east coast, up through Yorkshire and into places like Sunderland.

    I haven't the foggiest notion why.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,041
    MikeK said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Strange isn't it. After Greece, the US is likely to be next country to elect an "insurgent" government.

    Good evening all. The Greek government is about insurgent as a cream puff.
    They were elected as insurgents before the cold water of economic reality slapped then in the face.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,041

    rcs1000 said:

    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!

    Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
    Oh no, it's much worse than that

    (It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
    Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
    The number of combinations is something about three others of magnitude more than:

    36^3 * 15^2

    There are about 85 zeros on that baby.
    Are there? I make it approximately 5 with 21 zeros on it. Which is five sextillion or less than an English quadrillion (though we don't really use English names for numbers anymore.
    Oops, I meant:
    3^36 * 2^15
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502
    CD13 said:

    Mr86,

    As a white Catholic living just outside the Knowsley boundary, I can assure you that the Labour voters here are very tribal. It's almost an act of faith. They wouldn't even consider voting Tory, and voting Ukip is breaking the habit of a lifetime.

    It's you Southerners, you see. You all earn fortunes screwed from the mouths of Northern babes. They dislike Mancs but as for Londoners ...

    This sounds very familiar. A place where the people are religiously loyal to the Labour Party, but are thinking about voting against their recommendation in the referendum. Oh, and the Labour Party are on the same side as the Tories.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    I received 3 leaflets today from Remain, Leave and how to vote, together with a Postal Vote Card coloured light khaki.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,401
    CD13 said:

    Mr86,

    As a white Catholic living just outside the Knowsley boundary, I can assure you that the Labour voters here are very tribal. It's almost an act of faith. They wouldn't even consider voting Tory, and voting Ukip is breaking the habit of a lifetime.

    It's you Southerners, you see. You all earn fortunes screwed from the mouths of Northern babes. They dislike Mancs but as for Londoners ...

    But
    We hate Manchester United.
    We hate Liverpool too,
    We hate Leeds United
    But Hammers we love you!

    Breaks off for a chorus of "We’re forever blowing bubbles."

    However, you should find out what Chelsea fans sing aboiut Liverpool!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!

    Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
    Oh no, it's much worse than that

    (It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
    Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
    The number of combinations is something about three others of magnitude more than:

    36^3 * 15^2

    There are about 85 zeros on that baby.
    Are there? I make it approximately 5 with 21 zeros on it. Which is five sextillion or less than an English quadrillion (though we don't really use English names for numbers anymore.
    Oops, I meant:
    3^36 * 2^15
    I know. I make that 4.9 E+21
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    I've received Nick Palmer's Vote Leave leaflet.

    Interesting.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,041
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!

    Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
    Oh no, it's much worse than that

    (It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
    Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
    The number of combinations is something about three others of magnitude more than:

    36^3 * 15^2

    There are about 85 zeros on that baby.
    Are there? I make it approximately 5 with 21 zeros on it. Which is five sextillion or less than an English quadrillion (though we don't really use English names for numbers anymore.
    Oops, I meant:
    3^36 * 2^15
    Which also doesn't get to 85 zeros :lol:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    MikeK said:

    I received 3 leaflets today from Remain, Leave and how to vote, together with a Postal Vote Card coloured light khaki.

    You have your postal vote already?

    Jeez.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,041

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!

    Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
    Oh no, it's much worse than that

    (It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
    Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
    The number of combinations is something about three others of magnitude more than:

    36^3 * 15^2

    There are about 85 zeros on that baby.
    Are there? I make it approximately 5 with 21 zeros on it. Which is five sextillion or less than an English quadrillion (though we don't really use English names for numbers anymore.
    Oops, I meant:
    3^36 * 2^15
    I know. I make that 4.9 E+21
    Hmmmm... so was out by 50 orders of magnitude...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502
    chestnut said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr86,

    As a white Catholic living just outside the Knowsley boundary, I can assure you that the Labour voters here are very tribal. It's almost an act of faith. They wouldn't even consider voting Tory, and voting Ukip is breaking the habit of a lifetime.

    It's you Southerners, you see. You all earn fortunes screwed from the mouths of Northern babes. They dislike Mancs but as for Londoners ...

    It seems to be a quirk of UKIPs appeal that it is stronger in the east of England, not just in the south but up along the east coast, up through Yorkshire and into places like Sunderland.

    I haven't the foggiest notion why.

    Fishing? I think it's one arguable fact about us joining the EEC, it screwed over our fishermen.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,955
    RobD said:

    EPG said:

    tlg86 said:

    An unbelievably sneering piece from Mark Easton on the Six O'Clock News tonight. He visited Knowsley on Merseyside and described it as the most English and Christian place in the country (courtesy of a high Catholic population, no doubt) and then called them the least educated people in Britain. Unsurprisingly he found a number of people concerned with immigration and mention was made of council houses.

    What's interesting is the result in Knowsley from last year:

    Labour - 39,628 (78.1%)
    Ukip - 4,973 (9.8%)
    Conservative - 3,367 (6.6%)
    Liberal Democrat - 1,490 (2.9%)
    Green - 1,270 (2.5%)

    For a seat which is very white, that's quite an under performance by Ukip (admittedly the candidate was Louise Bours who I cannot stand).

    Christian in the English census means Catholic, and in most cases - especially given Merseyside - Irish Catholic. I guess it's not that surprising that Ukip got a poorer result than other areas, given that Ukip is strongly but not exclusively an ethnic-English phenomenon, and seems to have a base among the ressentiment of some of the lower-middle class.
    No it doesn't. Christian in the census means all denominations, not just Catholic.
    Yes (in the England and Wales Census), but you are allowed to put whatever you like in the "other" category, and even after coding there are hundred(s?) of categories. There were things like "Santeria", which isn't as improbable as you think given the tens of millions covered.

    see h ttp://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/measuring-equality/equality/ethnic-nat-identity-religion/religion/index.html
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,376
    Mr Chestnut,

    Having originated from Boston, I go back regularly to visit family. It's changing rapidly and it's an influx of white Catholics. Four out of the five masses on Sunday are in Polish or Lithuanian.

    The newcomers like a drink (the drink-drive statistics have shot up) and work hard, but it's the pace of change that seems to be the real issue. It's not London, you know.

    Perhaps we can vote Brexit but leave London and Scotland to wallow in the EU?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313
    edited May 2016

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!

    Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
    Oh no, it's much worse than that

    (It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
    Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
    The number of combinations is something about three others of magnitude more than:

    36^3 * 15^2

    There are about 85 zeros on that baby.
    Are there? I make it approximately 5 with 21 zeros on it. Which is five sextillion or less than an English quadrillion (though we don't really use English names for numbers anymore.
    Oops, I meant:
    3^36 * 2^15
    I know. I make that 4.9 E+21
    Well it's actually 6e51.

    Oops, confusing ^ with e. That'll shut me up :D
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,955

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. Llama, must agree. The options are Exit and Integrate. The status quo or the mythical beast of us reforming the EU to suit us isn't on the table.

    Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, the Czechs and Poland will be leaving with us then
    The real prize for Europe here is Brexit breaking the back of the federalist anti-democratic EU empire (which has had its day) and establishing a new vision of a Europe of free self-governing and colloborating national democracies.
    Or killing each other... :)
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!

    Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
    Oh no, it's much worse than that

    (It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
    Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
    The number of combinations is something about three others of magnitude more than:

    36^3 * 15^2

    There are about 85 zeros on that baby.
    Are there? I make it approximately 5 with 21 zeros on it. Which is five sextillion or less than an English quadrillion (though we don't really use English names for numbers anymore.
    Oops, I meant:
    3^36 * 2^15
    Which also doesn't get to 85 zeros :lol:
    You also HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR GOAL DIFFERENCE in the group matches.

    3^36 * 2^15 = antilog (.4771*36+.3010 * 15) =21.69 = or 5 X 10^21 (just less)
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    chestnut said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr86,

    As a white Catholic living just outside the Knowsley boundary, I can assure you that the Labour voters here are very tribal. It's almost an act of faith. They wouldn't even consider voting Tory, and voting Ukip is breaking the habit of a lifetime.

    It's you Southerners, you see. You all earn fortunes screwed from the mouths of Northern babes. They dislike Mancs but as for Londoners ...

    It seems to be a quirk of UKIPs appeal that it is stronger in the east of England, not just in the south but up along the east coast, up through Yorkshire and into places like Sunderland.

    I haven't the foggiest notion why.

    Just for fun:
    http://www.historyonthenet.com/files/fs/civil_war/images/supportmap1.gif
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Quick drive by.

    Utterly fascinating albeit depressing little read about todays Labour party.

    https://medium.com/@Jews_Resist/on-looking-down-not-up-the-institutional-propagation-of-labours-antisemitism-8805264a768#.5gml433d2
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,401
    EPG said:

    chestnut said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr86,

    As a white Catholic living just outside the Knowsley boundary, I can assure you that the Labour voters here are very tribal. It's almost an act of faith. They wouldn't even consider voting Tory, and voting Ukip is breaking the habit of a lifetime.

    It's you Southerners, you see. You all earn fortunes screwed from the mouths of Northern babes. They dislike Mancs but as for Londoners ...

    It seems to be a quirk of UKIPs appeal that it is stronger in the east of England, not just in the south but up along the east coast, up through Yorkshire and into places like Sunderland.

    I haven't the foggiest notion why.

    Just for fun:
    http://www.historyonthenet.com/files/fs/civil_war/images/supportmap1.gif
    Half my ancestors came from the Carmrthen/Pembrokeshire border, the other half from Bedfordshire.

    But I’m strongly for REMAIN!

    Do have trouble with my East of England relatives, though!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,041
    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Apparently, if you win the 50 million quid Vote Leave competition, you have to give 25m of it back by buying stuff for the campaign. But the good news is, you get to choose how that 25m is spent!

    Someone said there are 51 matches. If we assume that the odds of getting each one right is 0.5 then I make the chances of someone getting them all right about 2 quadrillion to one.
    Oh no, it's much worse than that

    (It's much worse because there are multiple additional permutations of who gets promoted from the group stages and in which order.)
    Why is the odds of getting each match right 0.5? Surely 0.3333 for the group stages - whether it is 0.5 or 0.3333 for the knockout depends on whether it is the result after penalties or extra time.
    The number of combinations is something about three others of magnitude more than:

    36^3 * 15^2

    There are about 85 zeros on that baby.
    Are there? I make it approximately 5 with 21 zeros on it. Which is five sextillion or less than an English quadrillion (though we don't really use English names for numbers anymore.
    Oops, I meant:
    3^36 * 2^15
    Which also doesn't get to 85 zeros :lol:
    You also HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR GOAL DIFFERENCE in the group matches.

    3^36 * 2^15 = antilog (.4771*36+.3010 * 15) =21.69 = or 5 X 10^21 (just less)
    I know :-)
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    MikeK said:

    I received 3 leaflets today from Remain, Leave and how to vote, together with a Postal Vote Card coloured light khaki.

    Have you had the HMG leaflet? I'm still waiting - just so I can send it back
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,955
    RobD said:



    No it doesn't. Christian in the census means all denominations, not just Catholic.

    Here's an interesting thing. The Census has over 1300 religion classifications. Take a look
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    chestnut said:

    weejonnie said:

    I've just worked out the average of the 16 polls on OGH's list with fieldwork starting on or after 1 May. It's Remain 52 Leave 48.

    And the average of the five most recent ones, with fieldwork beginning on or after 18 May is ..... Remain 52 Leave 48.

    These polls exclude Northern Ireland and overseas electors,both of which can be assumed to be heavily Remain (a poll of NI earlier this week was 61% Remain IIRC). If my maths is correct a 60-40 NI vote would add roughly 0.75% to the Remain lead in the UK (perhaps more if turnout in NI was higher than GB, as it usually is).

    Bearing this in mind it seems reasonable to say that Remain are currently maintaining a lead of about 5 points. And the last poll to show Leave in a winning position after adding in NI and overseas electors was ICM of 13-15 May.

    Well now we have a slightly more level battleground - and Leave are using the advantage to focus on immigration as a new topic, rather than a stale one.
    We've had three months of the government machine throwing the kitchen sink at this, and yet Leave are level or winning in five of the six online polls and within the MOE on the other.

    The PM's trust ratings are awful.

    Remain need the phone polls to be right.

    There is a lot more doubt involved here than they ever imagined, in my opinion.
    No - my average includes all polls, and is in fact weighted toward online polls as there are more of those - 10 online polls and 6 phone with fieldwork starting on or after May 1.

    Even an average of online polls only does not show Leave ahead - the figures are 49.8 Remain and 50.2 Leave but when you add in NI and overseas votes Remain would just scrape through.
  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    I've just watched Liam Fox being interviewed by Adam Boulton on SKY. I don't think Liam Fox managed to complete a single sentence due to constant interruptions. All presenters do it but Adam Boulton is one of the worse. It's so bloody frustrating.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    MikeK said:

    I received 3 leaflets today from Remain, Leave and how to vote, together with a Postal Vote Card coloured light khaki.

    You have your postal vote already?

    Jeez.
    I got my ordinary polling card on Tuesday.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,955
    chestnut said:



    It seems to be a quirk of UKIPs appeal that it is stronger in the east of England, not just in the south but up along the east coast, up through Yorkshire and into places like Sunderland.

    I haven't the foggiest notion why.

    Ports and airports serving Europe? If we assume UKIP support scales to Eastern Europe immigration, then those areas seeing the greatest change due to Eastern European migration will be those that are most predisposed to UKIP.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Incidentally if we go for a 65% chance for group stages and 75% chance for knockout then I make that approximately a one in 406 million chance of getting it right. Which is a lot better than what we were talking about earlier.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump thinks he can win California - or at least force the Democrats to spend a fortune fighting him off!
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    MikeK said:

    I received 3 leaflets today from Remain, Leave and how to vote, together with a Postal Vote Card coloured light khaki.

    Have you had the HMG leaflet? I'm still waiting - just so I can send it back
    Yoh stick it to the man, girl.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502
    viewcode said:

    RobD said:



    No it doesn't. Christian in the census means all denominations, not just Catholic.

    Here's an interesting thing. The Census has over 1300 religion classifications. Take a look
    Enough people put Arsenal for it to be counted. I put Arsene Knows. I'm not sure he does now :(
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Officers from the MPS Counter Terrorism Command, who have been liaising with their counterparts in the United States, have today, Friday, 27 May, seen the sentencing of 33-year-old UK citizen Ming Quang Pham, aka Amin to 40 years imprisonment.


    http://news.met.police.uk/news/uk-citizen-sentenced-to-forty-years-in-us-court-for-terrorism-offences-166587
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Will Straw really is a complete wanker.

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/736211252817448960
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RodCrosby said:

    Trump thinks he can win California - or at least force the Democrats to spend a fortune fighting him off!

    Wouldn't be the first time a woman had to fight off Trump .... :smile:
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,092
    The debate is not only confusing voters - the Scottish Parliament recently had a debate ion the case for remaining in the EU and recorded:-

    Against the case to remain in the EU

    Corry, Maurice (West Scotland) (Con) - (the MSP later explained that he incorrectly voted for Leave)

    Lindhurst, Gordon (Lothian) (Con)

    Mitchell, Margaret (Central Scotland) (Con)

    Mundell, Oliver (Dumfriesshire) (Con)

    Simpson, Graham (Central Scotland) (Con)

    Smith, Elaine (Central Scotland) (Lab)

    Stewart, Alexander (Mid Scotland and Fife) (Con)

    Thomson, Ross (North East Scotland) (Con)

  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    viewcode said:

    chestnut said:



    It seems to be a quirk of UKIPs appeal that it is stronger in the east of England, not just in the south but up along the east coast, up through Yorkshire and into places like Sunderland.

    I haven't the foggiest notion why.

    Ports and airports serving Europe? If we assume UKIP support scales to Eastern Europe immigration, then those areas seeing the greatest change due to Eastern European migration will be those that are most predisposed to UKIP.
    There's no one answer. Looking at the modern counties, Ukip's strongest performance was South Yorkshire. (Apart from the Isle of Wight! Which was 1st place Con - 2nd Ukip - 3rd Green.) 7 of the other 8 top-10 counties for Ukip were on the east coast. Plus Staffordshire.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Incidentally if we go for a 65% chance for group stages and 75% chance for knockout then I make that approximately a one in 406 million chance of getting it right. Which is a lot better than what we were talking about earlier.

    406 billion* I meant to write.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tlg86 said:

    viewcode said:

    RobD said:



    No it doesn't. Christian in the census means all denominations, not just Catholic.

    Here's an interesting thing. The Census has over 1300 religion classifications. Take a look
    Enough people put Arsenal for it to be counted. I put Arsene Knows. I'm not sure he does now :(
    When in Malawi I saw a pentocostal church "the Assemblies of God" who had an unfortunate signwriter and the sign outside read "Ass of God".

    Perhaps even Jack would blush at that!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Top IS commander in Fallujah killed. Seems to be a matter of time now until all IS territory is recovered. What happens next is anyone's guess.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    tlg86 said:

    viewcode said:

    RobD said:



    No it doesn't. Christian in the census means all denominations, not just Catholic.

    Here's an interesting thing. The Census has over 1300 religion classifications. Take a look
    Enough people put Arsenal for it to be counted. I put Arsene Knows. I'm not sure he does now :(
    A few years ago the Met Police, keen to measure the diversity of its recruits, asked each new copper to fill in a form on day one which included questions on ethnicity and religion. The results came as a surprise to the brass, who found that the most common religion amongst their new recruits was Jedi.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    EPG said:

    viewcode said:

    chestnut said:



    It seems to be a quirk of UKIPs appeal that it is stronger in the east of England, not just in the south but up along the east coast, up through Yorkshire and into places like Sunderland.

    I haven't the foggiest notion why.

    Ports and airports serving Europe? If we assume UKIP support scales to Eastern Europe immigration, then those areas seeing the greatest change due to Eastern European migration will be those that are most predisposed to UKIP.
    There's no one answer. Looking at the modern counties, Ukip's strongest performance was South Yorkshire. (Apart from the Isle of Wight! Which was 1st place Con - 2nd Ukip - 3rd Green.) 7 of the other 8 top-10 counties for Ukip were on the east coast. Plus Staffordshire.
    Isn't it just people retiring to the coast, therefore reflecting an older population? The Isle of Wight often attracts retired matelots. Skegness and Mablethorpe are known in Leicester as "the Far East".

    Retiring to the Southwest is rather more expensive, so a slightly different demographic.
  • tlg86 said:

    viewcode said:

    RobD said:



    No it doesn't. Christian in the census means all denominations, not just Catholic.

    Here's an interesting thing. The Census has over 1300 religion classifications. Take a look
    Enough people put Arsenal for it to be counted. I put Arsene Knows. I'm not sure he does now :(
    A few years ago the Met Police, keen to measure the diversity of its recruits, asked each new copper to fill in a form on day one which included questions on ethnicity and religion. The results came as a surprise to the brass, who found that the most common religion amongst their new recruits was Jedi.
    I put myself down as Jedi in the 2001 census.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,401
    edited May 2016

    Top IS commander in Fallujah killed. Seems to be a matter of time now until all IS territory is recovered. What happens next is anyone's guess.

    I think you’re a tad optimistic; Mosul is going to be tough to retake.

    My guess, for the little it’s worth, is that there’ll be a lot of blood spilled, after as well as before!!
    Quite a lot of it either innocent or not THAT guilty.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    I received 3 leaflets today from Remain, Leave and how to vote, together with a Postal Vote Card coloured light khaki.

    Have you had the HMG leaflet? I'm still waiting - just so I can send it back
    Yes, got it two days ago. I tore it up. Quicker than shredding it. ;)
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    MP_SE said:
    Saw this earlier on Guido - the junior Straw was well and truly put in his place!
  • Top IS commander in Fallujah killed. Seems to be a matter of time now until all IS territory is recovered. What happens next is anyone's guess.

    If a vacuum is allowed to develop and history is any guide.
    Any new mob will be a lot nastier than what went before.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,400
    MP_SE said:
    Will Straw, Stephen Kinnock. We'll have Sub-sentient Amoeba 46 'Brown' if we continue this offspring trend in Labour.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    tlg86 said:

    viewcode said:

    RobD said:



    No it doesn't. Christian in the census means all denominations, not just Catholic.

    Here's an interesting thing. The Census has over 1300 religion classifications. Take a look
    Enough people put Arsenal for it to be counted. I put Arsene Knows. I'm not sure he does now :(
    A few years ago the Met Police, keen to measure the diversity of its recruits, asked each new copper to fill in a form on day one which included questions on ethnicity and religion. The results came as a surprise to the brass, who found that the most common religion amongst their new recruits was Jedi.
    I put myself down as Jedi in the 2001 census.
    Ditto. More Jedi's were counted that year than Jews IIRC.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    What strange bedfellows this referendum is making. :smiley:

    https://twitter.com/igeldard/status/736262724318076928
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,376
    Dr Fox,

    "Skegness and Mablethorpe are known in Leicester as "the Far East".

    It's all the caravans. Ingoldmells is a good example - wasn't it the largest caravan park in the world?

    Leicester ... a nice enough place in the West Midlands.


  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,270
    edited May 2016
    chestnut said:

    weejonnie said:

    I've just worked out the average of the 16 polls on OGH's list with fieldwork starting on or after 1 May. It's Remain 52 Leave 48.

    And the average of the five most recent ones, with fieldwork beginning on or after 18 May is ..... Remain 52 Leave 48.

    These polls exclude Northern Ireland and overseas electors,both of which can be assumed to be heavily Remain (a poll of NI earlier this week was 61% Remain IIRC). If my maths is correct a 60-40 NI vote would add roughly 0.75% to the Remain lead in the UK (perhaps more if turnout in NI was higher than GB, as it usually is).

    Bearing this in mind it seems reasonable to say that Remain are currently maintaining a lead of about 5 points. And the last poll to show Leave in a winning position after adding in NI and overseas electors was ICM of 13-15 May.

    Well now we have a slightly more level battleground - and Leave are using the advantage to focus on immigration as a new topic, rather than a stale one.
    We've had three months of the government machine throwing the kitchen sink at this, and yet Leave are level or winning in five of the six online polls and within the MOE on the other.

    The PM's trust ratings are awful.

    Remain need the phone polls to be right.

    There is a lot more doubt involved here than they ever imagined, in my opinion.
    Don't you think it might give a more balanced picture to say that out of the last ten polls Remain have been in the lead in seven two have been tied and one has had Leave in the lead?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Agree with OGH about the stupid £350m figure that Leave are using - £150m would have been fine, but to backtrack and re-spray those vans now would invite ridicule so they're in a no win situation of their own making.

    Personally I think the leave campaign need to fight much more on economics - they've got a perfectly good story to tell on the EFTA / EEA model. By continuing on the immigration theme they're merely preaching to the converted - fine to spend a bit of time on it (not as though that's why I'm in the leave camp) to keep that block on side but it needs to be a much more rounded campaign than has been the case over the past week.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    I bet there aren't many constituencies in which Ukip won over 20 times the Conservative vote. But Belfast West was one. :)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Top IS commander in Fallujah killed. Seems to be a matter of time now until all IS territory is recovered. What happens next is anyone's guess.

    If a vacuum is allowed to develop and history is any guide.
    Any new mob will be a lot nastier than what went before.
    You can't get much nastier than Isil. I mean how many heads do you want to see severed in a day?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    hunchman said:

    Agree with OGH about the stupid £350m figure that Leave are using - £150m would have been fine, but to backtrack and re-spray those vans now would invite ridicule so they're in a no win situation of their own making.

    Personally I think the leave campaign need to fight much more on economics - they've got a perfectly good story to tell on the EFTA / EEA model. By continuing on the immigration theme they're merely preaching to the converted - fine to spend a bit of time on it (not as though that's why I'm in the leave camp) to keep that block on side but it needs to be a much more rounded campaign than has been the case over the past week.

    I think the levels of immigration are pretty jaw-dropping and likely to sway some of those on the fence. As they might say, 330k immigrants here, 330k immigrants there, pretty soon you're talking a real population increase.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341


    No - my average includes all polls, and is in fact weighted toward online polls as there are more of those - 10 online polls and 6 phone with fieldwork starting on or after May 1.

    Even an average of online polls only does not show Leave ahead - the figures are 49.8 Remain and 50.2 Leave but when you add in NI and overseas votes Remain would just scrape through.

    Calculating averages where certain pollsters are excessively weighted thanks to their volume of polls is fraught with risk as we saw last spring with Yougov's 10PM daily.

    I much prefer taking the latest by each pollster.

This discussion has been closed.