I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November is a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
The Democrats are split whilst the GOP is unifying. There will be a shift back to the Dems once Sanders is out the way, the question is whether the damage is already done.
It's more fundamental than that. This is not someone equipped to fight back against what's about to hit her.
I don't think it is any more fundamental. I understand the weaknesses of HRC, and there are plenty on Trump's side as well. Some Republican financers will likely stay out of the GOP race, as well.
I don't understand the dynamics of Clinton's unpopularity. She clearly is unpopular right now. However this time last year she was quite popular. The Clintons have been around for so long you would think opinions would be set by now.
I don't know if it's deliberately strategic or subconscious but I think there's some detectable "the enemy of my enemy" stuff going on with the ratings of presidential candidates: * When Obama was the main threat, Obama had lower ratings and Hillary had higher ratings, as the main internal opposition to him. * Now Hillary is the likely nominee and Obama is going away, Obama's ratings are coming back up while Hillary's are going down. Likewise Sanders has relatively high ratings, which I'm sure he wouldn't have if he was the presumptive nominee. * Since Sanders is still pretending he's in the race, a chunk of his supporters are saying they wouldn't support Hillary, when in fact whether they know it or not they ultimately will. Hillary's supporters responded in a similar way at the same point in the 2008 cycle.
Tbh I've never really understood the clamour for all-night tubes. Capacity and reliability during the day (especially as the rush hour now lasts 3 or 4 hours) ought to be more pressing issues.
The London Tube service is pretty good, and it has been good for generations. Trains are very frequent - that's the main thing. A lot of the moaning about the Northern Line in particular is just veiled snobbery from north of the river. What people should moan about is the disgustingly high prices, which the authorities in most big cities in other countries just wouldn't be able to get away with.
I agree about all-night tubes. Running them an hour or two later would be OK, though - say to about 2am.
@rowenamason: Cameron says there's "uncertainty" over whether EU citizens in UK + UK citizens in EU have right to stay where they are in event of Brexit
That does raise the interesting question of whether the Remain campaign have made inroads into getting ex-pats to register and vote. Does anyone know?
A lot of advertising here in Spain about the uncertainty posed by 'Leave' and the need to register. Everyone I know has their postal vote organised - and friends and family back in the UK fully primed of the potential dangers to their cheap breaks in the sun.
There is no such danger.
There you are wrong - there is a very real danger and expats as well as the many thousands more with second homes here are very aware of it. If you cannot see that a potential Leave vote produces this uncertainty then you haven't been following.
Utter rubbish. Cheap breaks occur inside and outside the EU. Turkey and Tunisia are both very popular destinations for getaways in the sun, and outside the EU. Norway is also popular for a different kind of break, as is Iceland.
And we had visa-free access to Europe pre-1973 and we will have it after.
This is sheer propaganda.
Those cheap breaks are already around 10% more expensive due to the fall in the £ generated by the uncertainty. You have no way to predict what deals will or will not be made between the UK/France, UK/ Spain etc post-Brexit re healthcare and pensions for current recipients or regarding those seeking work. Except we do know that Leave want to want free movement - and risibly think this would be cost free. Oh and btw there's a reason why Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey are offering cheap holiday deals at the moment - whereas Spain are very definitely not.
In round 1, the Remain Boxer has come in a frenzy and thrown punch after punch. The Leave boxer has had to defend and has wobbled but there has not been a knock out blow (if we say the polls are 55-45)
Round 2 is about to start. What will happen next? Maybe the remain boxer will keep going and the leave boxer will be knocked out or maybe remain will tire while leave finally starts to attack.
The hope for leave is that remain has used up most of its ammunition - no more govt reports with purdah starting; the world leaders and organisations have had their say.
Leave needs to take the chance to get on the front foot. Immigration has barely been mentioned and other arguments have not been heard at all:
The ECHR wanting to give prisoners the vote The difficulty of deporting people like Abu Qatada due to ECHR laws The fact the EU has not had its books signed off for x years The treatment of the PIGS and the massive youth unemployment Democratic govts being deposed in Greece and Italy The fact the EU demanded we pay more and Osborne paid up Juncker's election 25-2
Leave need to put the EU on trial and force remain to defend their behaviour.
The full frontal heavy artillery bombardment from HMG should end on Friday.
We will then move to the phase where Leave is peppered with canister shot, and pellets, from a variety of other angles for the next four weeks.
Good news is: debates haven't started yet, and neither has the literature gone out yet.
So there could still be an appetite for some level of swingback to Leave.
Another point I meant to add is that if the polls are currently 55-45 (ignoring dk), then leave only need to convince 1 in 10 remainers to switch. I don't see this as by any means impossible if you consider that remain voters are probably much less tribal than voters of the political parties are.
I also agree the debates are important. lots of coverage on a level playing field for leave, while remain won't just be able to talk about the economy.
Strangely I'd like Leave to take their own opportunity to major on the economy as often as possible once Purdah starts on Friday. They have some good spokespeople on the economy both inside and outside parliament - get them out there. The pollsters may be on to something about Tory drift to remain. Almost certainly this is due to economic concens. Neutralise these and there's still half a chance.
Has Purdah not started yet? This seems ridiculous. The campaign has been in full swing for a month or so!
"Whilst I think this is a very reasonable position to take overall I also have to say that it is, in parts, utterly unrealistic.
It appears to be based on the premise that the EU can be changed in a way that will suit the UK and, more importantly, will not change in ways which do not suit the UK.
It is also based on the idea that there was some substance to Cameron's negotiation and that we have some protections in place as a result.
Finally it suggests changes which are utterly counter to the fundamental rules and principles of the EU - particularly regarding the role of the ECJ.
I am afraid that the only choice to be made after a vote to Remain is either continuing the fight against the EU and pushing for Brexit by any democratic means possible or abject surrender to Ever Closer Union. The one thing we will not be able to do is influence the direction of an EU newly emboldened by a Remain vote."
Richard, don't get me wrong. I am voting and campaigning for Vote Leave because I am not a huge fan of the EU in its current form and I have lost a lot of faith in the reform from within strategy. But if Leave loses the referendum then Brexit supporters can either carp from the sidelines as though the referendum never happened or we can box clever. We redouble efforts for reform from within with the increased information and public awareness about the EU as a boost for our side; and we are now in a stronger position of knowing that being anti-EU is not a position held by those described as 'crazy right-wingers'; this is a huge perception change. We also will know where our case was weak and seek to rectify that.
So while I am of the view that reform from within is difficult, there will be some additional opportunities going forwards. Finally, this is not either/or; I will seek reform from within knowing that it has potential limitation as an approach, but it is the most viable approach for now. A further referendum or a government winning an election with a manifesto commitment to leave may come in the future; I am not sure under what conditions; but neither are likely in the short term.
We have a golden opportunity for reform when they try to negotiate a new Eurozone Treaty. It is imperative they do this in the next few years, so when that happens we should demand changes in our favour. If they try to sign a separate treaty without doing this, we should refuse to let them use EU institutions and buildings. That was Cameron's mistake last time.
No we don't. Part of Dave's renegotiation was that he gave away any leverage we had over EMU matters.
@rowenamason: Cameron says there's "uncertainty" over whether EU citizens in UK + UK citizens in EU have right to stay where they are in event of Brexit
That does raise the interesting question of whether the Remain campaign have made inroads into getting ex-pats to register and vote. Does anyone know?
A lot of advertising here in Spain about the uncertainty posed by 'Leave' and the need to register. Everyone I know has their postal vote organised - and friends and family back in the UK fully primed of the potential dangers to their cheap breaks in the sun.
There is no such danger.
There you are wrong - there is a very real danger and expats as well as the many thousands more with second homes here are very aware of it. If you cannot see that a potential Leave vote produces this uncertainty then you haven't been following.
Utter rubbish. Cheap breaks occur inside and outside the EU. Turkey and Tunisia are both very popular destinations for getaways in the sun, and outside the EU. Norway is also popular for a different kind of break, as is Iceland.
And we had visa-free access to Europe pre-1973 and we will have it after.
This is sheer propaganda.
Maybe but it's effective - I have a non-political friend who inherited a flat in Spain from his parents. He is very concerned that if the UK left the EU the flat would be harder to sell and there would be uncertainty about free access to medical care for Brits in Spain which would deter holiday renters and potential retirees. Therefore he is voting Remain.
He is right to be very worried - the market here is already fragile and starting to be affected by the falling £. an other 10-15% fall and the recovery, such as it is, would collapse.
... * Since Sanders is still pretending he's in the race, a chunk of his supporters are saying they wouldn't support Hillary, when in fact whether they know it or not they ultimately will. Hillary's supporters responded in a similar way at the same point in the 2008 cycle.
Yes, I think the current Trump vs Hillary polling should be taken with a pinch of salt for that reason.
"Whilst I think this is a very reasonable position to take overall I also have to say that it is, in parts, utterly unrealistic.
It appears to be based on the premise that the EU can be changed in a way that will suit the UK and, more importantly, will not change in ways which do not suit the UK.
It is also based on the idea that there was some substance to Cameron's negotiation and that we have some protections in place as a result.
Finally it suggests changes which are utterly counter to the fundamental rules and principles of the EU - particularly regarding the role of the ECJ.
I am afraid that the only choice to be made after a vote to Remain is either continuing the fight against the EU and pushing for Brexit by any democratic means possible or abject surrender to Ever Closer Union. The one thing we will not be able to do is influence the direction of an EU newly emboldened by a Remain vote."
So while I am of the view that reform from within is difficult, there will be some additional opportunities going forwards. Finally, this is not either/or; I will seek reform from within knowing that it has potential limitation as an approach, but it is the most viable approach for now. A further referendum or a government winning an election with a manifesto commitment to leave may come in the future; I am not sure under what conditions; but neither are likely in the short term.
We have a golden opportunity for reform when they try to negotiate a new Eurozone Treaty. It is imperative they do this in the next few years, so when that happens we should demand changes in our favour. If they try to sign a separate treaty without doing this, we should refuse to let them use EU institutions and buildings. That was Cameron's mistake last time.
No we don't. Part of Dave's renegotiation was that he gave away any leverage we had over EMU matters.
David Cameron will not be Prime Minister in a year or two, and he can not bind his successor. I don't think the renegotiation treaty can be read to mean that the UK has to sign any new treaty Germany puts in front of us. That claim certainly would not stand up in court.
I could've sworn this happened a week or two ago, but British expats have lost their battle to vote in the EU referendum: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36370522
I am in the same position as TGOHF. Corbyn doesn't scare me, and he may do me some good. My mother's care fees (she lives with me, but still has her own house so she has an asset) have gone up 550% in five years - an hour in the morning, three half hour visits in the day and a quarter hour at night - 2 carers - 365 days a year - £21 / hour each is £42,000 / year after tax. This is at Bournemouth rates. A Labour government would suit me better because care supplied directly by the council was half the price the agency changes.
And there's a huge NHS crisis looming... Labour always manage the NHS better than the Tories so that's another reason to vote Jezza.
You do know that it only requires 325 votes to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act, right?
You do know it requires a majority in the Lords to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act too.
If the Lords were to resist an early election demanded by the Commons it would get flooded, and deservedly so.
There was no such commitment in the 2015 Tory Manifesto. The Lords would be acting perfectly reasonably in blocking such a proposal.
"Elections to the Commons are no business of the Lords" is a difficult line to oppose. "Actually where laws are concerned, we have a right" wouldn't have much mileage.
... * Since Sanders is still pretending he's in the race, a chunk of his supporters are saying they wouldn't support Hillary, when in fact whether they know it or not they ultimately will. Hillary's supporters responded in a similar way at the same point in the 2008 cycle.
Yes, I think the current Trump vs Hillary polling should be taken with a pinch of salt for that reason.
Obama has a damned sight more charisma than Hillary. Bernie is a mile to the left of them both. Some may well fall into line, but not all - it won't be a repeat of 2008 by a long shot.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November is a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
FWIW, I posted this yesterday ...
Greetings from Washington DC. Just had lunch at the Capitol Hill Club, the place in town where t Republicans congregate. A few snippets to report: 1. The feeling is that Trump has a real chance of winning in November, thanks to HC's unpopularity and his amazingly teflon qualities. 2. A real spanner in the works, though, could be the emergence of stories about mob links. You can't do big builds in New York without having to deal with the mafia, apparently. 3. If he does win he is going to have trouble bringing in A list Republicans to serve in his administration. He's just too unpredictable. 4. He may not actually be a Republican! 5. The Senate looks like it may flip to the Democrats in November, before flipping back to the GOP in 2018.
Make of this what you will. No huge surprises, but 2 and 4 may explain a lot about why Trump is so worrisome for the GOP establishment.
Any rumours of a Veep?
If Trump picks a young, likeable, successful woman it's over for Clinton.
I doubt Trump believes such a creature can actually exist.
The old white man Newt Gingrich leads the betting by a country mile.
Trump would be an idiot to go for that choice, in my view, and he ain't no idiot.
I've been laying Gingrich as VP at those unbelievably short odds.
Mr. Bedfordshire, any substance to the allegations, though?
That I dont know. The impression I get is that they wont get the election annulled but will be a useful shroud for Hofer and co to wave in the forthcoming general election.
Choosing a woman is such a no-brainer that personally I'd concentrate on them for betting purposes. I mentioned Shelley Moore Capito as one possible contender; Trump has explicitly and very sensibly said that he needs wants someone with Washington experience, which I think tends to point away from some of the other names that have been mentioned.
My advice would be to lay the favourite, particularly someone who has run in as much as Gingrich. As the article demonstrates there are a plethora of potential candidates, and nailing down a single one is hard. Often there are two or three who would push the same buttons.
Obama has a damned sight more charisma than Hillary. Bernie is a mile to the left of them both. Some may well fall into line, but not all - it won't be a repeat of 2008 by a long shot.
Possibly, but the other side of the coin is that Trump is more of a bogeyman than McCain (though admittedly McCain saddled himself with a bogeywoman).
Maybe but it's effective - I have a non-political friend who inherited a flat in Spain from his parents. He is very concerned that if the UK left the EU the flat would be harder to sell and there would be uncertainty about free access to medical care for Brits in Spain which would deter holiday renters and potential retirees. Therefore he is voting Remain.
There's a big difference between short visits for holidays, which obviously won't be affected at all, and the right of residence + healthcare. It is factually correct that the latter would be uncertain in the case of a Leave result; it would depend on what deal was agreed.
I must say I thought that removing these automatic reciprocal rights was precisely the intention of the Leavers, so it's a bit odd that they seem to be saying it's scaremongering.
I think leavers want to remove the rights of EU citizens to live in the UK but keep the rights of UK citizens to live in other EU countries.
We have a golden opportunity for reform when they try to negotiate a new Eurozone Treaty. It is imperative they do this in the next few years, so when that happens we should demand changes in our favour. If they try to sign a separate treaty without doing this, we should refuse to let them use EU institutions and buildings. That was Cameron's mistake last time.
Enhanced Cooperation is in the treaties precisely to prevent individual member states from playing silly buggers like this. (The British signed up to this because they don't want to be dicked around either when they wanted something that some other member states didn't, like a single system for patents.)
But even Enhanced Cooperation didn't exist, it's not really obvious how it helps Britain for the other member states to use different buildings.
@rowenamason: Cameron says there's "uncertainty" over whether EU citizens in UK + UK citizens in EU have right to stay where they are in event of Brexit
That does raise the interesting question of whether the Remain campaign have made inroads into getting ex-pats to register and vote. Does anyone know?
A lot of advertising here in Spain about the uncertainty posed by 'Leave' and the need to register. Everyone I know has their postal vote organised - and friends and family back in the UK fully primed of the potential dangers to their cheap breaks in the sun.
There is no such danger.
There you are wrong - there is a very real danger and expats as well as the many thousands more with second homes here are very aware of it. If you cannot see that a potential Leave vote produces this uncertainty then you haven't been following.
Utter rubbish. Cheap breaks occur inside and outside the EU. Turkey and Tunisia are both very popular destinations for getaways in the sun, and outside the EU. Norway is also popular for a different kind of break, as is Iceland.
And we had visa-free access to Europe pre-1973 and we will have it after.
This is sheer propaganda.
Those cheap breaks are already around 10% more expensive due to the fall in the £ generated by the uncertainty.
Tell me, how much money you made in the Forex markets armed with that foreknowledge?
Or did the £ fall all on its own and you have pinned some nebulous theory to that?
* Since Sanders is still pretending he's in the race, a chunk of his supporters are saying they wouldn't support Hillary, when in fact whether they know it or not they ultimately will. Hillary's supporters responded in a similar way at the same point in the 2008 cycle.
Sanders may run as an independent. "PUMA" feeling will be higher than in 2008.
... * Since Sanders is still pretending he's in the race, a chunk of his supporters are saying they wouldn't support Hillary, when in fact whether they know it or not they ultimately will. Hillary's supporters responded in a similar way at the same point in the 2008 cycle.
Yes, I think the current Trump vs Hillary polling should be taken with a pinch of salt for that reason.
Right. The hard part is working out how much salt to pinch.
As for the reality of a post-remain UK and Con party. I will accept the result. However, I won't leave the party, in fact I hope to get some people I have made contact with through VL to join the party and we can continue to take it over from within. John Major faced down 20-30 "bastards" Cameron is facing down 160 of us and at least 60% of the membership. We are the majority and we will continue to be the majority after the vote and eventually we will have the majority of MPs and the leadership on our side. It's a process that has been on going.
I don't think that the EU is ever going to be reformed in our favour. The idea that we can opt-out of the political union with no economic consequences is also a complete nonsense, that's if the new opt-out is proven to be legally binding (I have my doubts). I've said it time and again, we are either all-in or all-out. Our halfway house is politically and economically damaging, we currently have the worst of both worlds. Imposition of EU trade tariffs and no real influence within the EU to change that.
Greetings from Washington DC. Just had lunch at the Capitol Hill Club, the place in town where t Republicans congregate. A few snippets to report: (...) 2. A real spanner in the works, though, could be the emergence of stories about mob links. You can't do big builds in New York without having to deal with the mafia, apparently.
It won't just be stories about the past. Trump's best known policy is the border wall. The wall will require huge contracts for concrete. Where's the government going to buy it? Everyone knows it's the mob that controls concrete.
From the mob's point of view, Trump is clearly the favoured candidate.
I don't think this will harm Trump much. He's a thuggish-mannered billionaire. One doesn't even need to know that a large part of his fortune has been made in construction projects in New York and in property management, hospitality, golf clubs, hotels and casinos. I mean seriously, what do people expect?
Hillary needs to come up with a nickname for Trump. I'd suggest "Thuggy Trump".
@rowenamason: Cameron says there's "uncertainty" over whether EU citizens in UK + UK citizens in EU have right to stay where they are in event of Brexit
That does raise the interesting question of whether the Remain campaign have made inroads into getting ex-pats to register and vote. Does anyone know?
A lot of advertising here in Spain about the uncertainty posed by 'Leave' and the need to register. Everyone I know has their postal vote organised - and friends and family back in the UK fully primed of the potential dangers to their cheap breaks in the sun.
There is no such danger.
There you are wrong - there is a very real danger and expats as well as the many thousands more with second homes here are very aware of it. If you cannot see that a potential Leave vote produces this uncertainty then you haven't been following.
Utter rubbish. Cheap breaks occur inside and outside the EU. Turkey and Tunisia are both very popular destinations for getaways in the sun, and outside the EU. Norway is also popular for a different kind of break, as is Iceland.
And we had visa-free access to Europe pre-1973 and we will have it after.
This is sheer propaganda.
Those cheap breaks are already around 10% more expensive due to the fall in the £ generated by the uncertainty.
Tell me, how much money you made in the Forex markets armed with that foreknowledge?
Or did the £ fall all on its own and you have pinned some nebulous theory to that?
The pound has been rising gently against the dollar since March, from 1.38 to 1.46. Since April the Euro has declined from 80p to 76p.
Would you really choose the defacto end of nation-state parliamentary democracy because you are worried about one year long recession? That is huge short termism in my opinion and is regrettable.
And people wonder why Brexiteers get labelled extreme...
"the defacto end of nation-state parliamentary democracy" is not on the ballot paper, and if a year long recession meant I might lose my job or home (which is what the article is about) then yes, I would have pause for thought.
Exactly it's not effect on lots of peoples livelihoods that is alarming.
The
The .
Lol. So
Yes,
This Etc. It's ridiculous.
Of courseed drugs did that.
IF YOU EVER HAD A DRINK YOU CAUSED ALCOHOLISM IN NEWCASTLE
I'm afraid
OK. I'll come EVERYTHING.
You're still a traitor. Etc.
Yes, you have directly contributed to theould and should do more.
You've cheered me up though, with the most delightfully ridiculous argument of the week.
For that, if nothing else, I will make this promise: to stop calling you a traitor (though you are) for the rest of the day. So I hereby promise not to call you a traitor, even though you are a traitor. You, the traitor, won't hear me call you a traitor from now until midnight. Promise.
Bless you! The thing is - you know I'm right. You know what you did and the people you dealt with. You should feel free to call me a traitor at every opportunity. And I will call you a hypocrite who cries crocodile tears for people whose lives you care nothing for. A score draw, I think.
You seem really upset that SeanT got off Heroin and his life back on track.
Greetings from Washington DC. Just had lunch at the Capitol Hill Club, the place in town where t Republicans congregate. A few snippets to report: (...) 2. A real spanner in the works, though, could be the emergence of stories about mob links. You can't do big builds in New York without having to deal with the mafia, apparently.
It won't just be stories about the past. Trump's best known policy is the border wall. The wall will require huge contracts for concrete. Where's the government going to buy it? Everyone knows it's the mob that controls concrete.
From the mob's point of view, Trump is clearly the favoured candidate.
I don't think this will harm Trump much. He's a thuggish-mannered billionaire. One doesn't even need to know that a large part of his fortune has been made in construction projects in New York and in property management, hospitality, golf clubs, hotels and casinos. I mean seriously, what do people expect?
Hillary needs to come up with a nickname for Trump. I'd suggest "Thuggy Trump".
Dennis Skinner could lend her one - Dodgy Don.
Unfortunately she can't deliver a line without a hammy head nod or inappropriate laugh.
As for the reality of a post-remain UK and Con party. I will accept the result. However, I won't leave the party, in fact I hope to get some people I have made contact with through VL to join the party and we can continue to take it over from within. John Major faced down 20-30 "bastards" Cameron is facing down 160 of us and at least 60% of the membership. We are the majority and we will continue to be the majority after the vote and eventually we will have the majority of MPs and the leadership on our side. It's a process that has been on going.
I don't think that the EU is ever going to be reformed in our favour. The idea that we can opt-out of the political union with no economic consequences is also a complete nonsense, that's if the new opt-out is proven to be legally binding (I have my doubts). I've said it time and again, we are either all-in or all-out. Our halfway house is politically and economically damaging, we currently have the worst of both worlds. Imposition of EU trade tariffs and no real influence within the EU to change that.
Does the fact that Labour are unelectable and the LibDems nowhere mean that once Eurosceptics take over the Tory party, that would be it? We would out in due course, especially when the backlog EU integrationalist measures start coming through.
Back from a nice weekend on the beach, well away from the Leaver-Remainer battles. Although in deepest East Anglia I only saw one Vote Leave poster the whole time, (zero Stronger In) I thought I'd see more in Turnip Taliban country.
A couple of days away has made me realise how much the referendum has brought out the worst on both sides, and although it's never really been my fight, I can't wait for it to be over. LewisDuckworth's post last night was an example of how petty it's all got, and I'll raise a glass to Mrs Duckworth if it does turn out to be a remain night on June 23rd. JamesM on this thread is as classy as I've seen in a while - Remain should think themselves lucky that people like him haven't been running the Leave campaign.
I know most people here - pace SeanT - care about this much more than I do, but I can't wait for the whole thing to be over. If I can't have a big remain victory, let Leave win well - anything to settle it.
"Whilst I think this is a very reasonable position to take overall I also have to say that it is, in parts, utterly unrealistic.
It appears to be based on the premise that the EU can be changed in a way that will suit the UK and, more importantly, will not change in ways which do not suit the UK.
It is also based on the idea that there was some substance to Cameron's negotiation and that we have some protections in place as a result.
Finally it suggests changes which are utterly counter to the fundamental rules and principles of the EU - particularly regarding the role of the ECJ.
I am afraid that the only choice to be made after a vote to Remain is either continuing the fight against the EU and pushing for Brexit by any democratic means possible or abject surrender to Ever Closer Union. The one thing we will not be able to do is influence the direction of an EU newly emboldened by a Remain vote."
So while I am of the view that reform from within is difficult, there will be some additional opportunities going forwards. Finally, this is not either/or; I will seek reform from within knowing that it has potential limitation as an approach, but it is the most viable approach for now. A further referendum or a government winning an election with a manifesto commitment to leave may come in the future; I am not sure under what conditions; but neither are likely in the short term.
We have a golden opportunity for reform when they try to negotiate a new Eurozone Treaty. It is imperative they do this in the next few years, so when that happens we should demand changes in our favour. If they try to sign a separate treaty without doing this, we should refuse to let them use EU institutions and buildings. That was Cameron's mistake last time.
No we don't. Part of Dave's renegotiation was that he gave away any leverage we had over EMU matters.
David Cameron will not be Prime Minister in a year or two, and he can not bind his successor. I don't think the renegotiation treaty can be read to mean that the UK has to sign any new treaty Germany puts in front of us. That claim certainly would not stand up in court.
When that court is the ECJ it certainly would stand up.
On this breitbart report there is a link to an Austrian paper with evidence of 150% turnouts...
Breitbart News Network (known simply as Breitbart News, Breitbart or Breitbart.com) is a politically conservative[4][5][6] American news and opinion website founded in 2007 by conservative commentator and entrepreneur Andrew Breitbart (1969–2012)
Back from a nice weekend on the beach, well away from the Leaver-Remainer battles. Although in deepest East Anglia I only saw one Vote Leave poster the whole time, (zero Stronger In) I thought I'd see more in Turnip Taliban country.
A couple of days away has made me realise how much the referendum has brought out the worst on both sides, and although it's never really been my fight, I can't wait for it to be over. LewisDuckworth's post last night was an example of how petty it's all got, and I'll raise a glass to Mrs Duckworth if it does turn out to be a remain night on June 23rd. JamesM on this thread is as classy as I've seen in a while - Remain should think themselves lucky that people like him haven't been running the Leave campaign.
I know most people here - pace SeanT - care about this much more than I do, but I can't wait for the whole thing to be over. If I can't have a big remain victory, let Leave win well - anything to settle it.
You're lucky you aren't Scottish. The week before the SIndy ref was painful.
... * Since Sanders is still pretending he's in the race, a chunk of his supporters are saying they wouldn't support Hillary, when in fact whether they know it or not they ultimately will. Hillary's supporters responded in a similar way at the same point in the 2008 cycle.
Yes, I think the current Trump vs Hillary polling should be taken with a pinch of salt for that reason.
Obama has a damned sight more charisma than Hillary. Bernie is a mile to the left of them both. Some may well fall into line, but not all - it won't be a repeat of 2008 by a long shot.
Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize even before taking office, but his legacy is a migrant crisis and ISIS and/or its "franchises" controlling a swathe of the Middle East and Africa
Maybe but it's effective - I have a non-political friend who inherited a flat in Spain from his parents. He is very concerned that if the UK left the EU the flat would be harder to sell and there would be uncertainty about free access to medical care for Brits in Spain which would deter holiday renters and potential retirees. Therefore he is voting Remain.
There's a big difference between short visits for holidays, which obviously won't be affected at all, and the right of residence + healthcare. It is factually correct that the latter would be uncertain in the case of a Leave result; it would depend on what deal was agreed.
I must say I thought that removing these automatic reciprocal rights was precisely the intention of the Leavers, so it's a bit odd that they seem to be saying it's scaremongering.
I think leavers want to remove the rights of EU citizens to live in the UK but keep the rights of UK citizens to live in other EU countries.
Nope. Existing EU residents in the UK, and those UK nationals living in the EU already, would be unaffected.
It's the rights of (mutual) free settlement in the future that would be negotiated.
As for the reality of a post-remain UK and Con party. I will accept the result. However, I won't leave the party, in fact I hope to get some people I have made contact with through VL to join the party and we can continue to take it over from within. John Major faced down 20-30 "bastards" Cameron is facing down 160 of us and at least 60% of the membership. We are the majority and we will continue to be the majority after the vote and eventually we will have the majority of MPs and the leadership on our side. It's a process that has been on going.
I don't think that the EU is ever going to be reformed in our favour. The idea that we can opt-out of the political union with no economic consequences is also a complete nonsense, that's if the new opt-out is proven to be legally binding (I have my doubts). I've said it time and again, we are either all-in or all-out. Our halfway house is politically and economically damaging, we currently have the worst of both worlds. Imposition of EU trade tariffs and no real influence within the EU to change that.
Does the fact that Labour are unelectable and the LibDems nowhere mean that once Eurosceptics take over the Tory party, that would be it? We would out in due course, especially when the backlog EU integrationalist measures start coming through.
Well Labour won't be unelectable forever but not having a vehemently pro-EU voice as the third party (the SNP are rightly taking a more sceptical approach) definitely helps.
However, what we need is a leaver who can take over the Conservative leadership, so far none come to mind. Andrea Leadsom and Priti Patel are the only two I can think of.
You do know that it only requires 325 votes to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act, right?
You do know it requires a majority in the Lords to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act too.
If the Lords were to resist an early election demanded by the Commons it would get flooded, and deservedly so.
There was no such commitment in the 2015 Tory Manifesto. The Lords would be acting perfectly reasonably in blocking such a proposal.
"Elections to the Commons are no business of the Lords" is a difficult line to oppose. "Actually where laws are concerned, we have a right" wouldn't have much mileage.
Messing about with constitutional arrangements for party gain would be a reason for the Lords to intervene.
On this breitbart report there is a link to an Austrian paper with evidence of 150% turnouts...
Breitbart News Network (known simply as Breitbart News, Breitbart or Breitbart.com) is a politically conservative[4][5][6] American news and opinion website founded in 2007 by conservative commentator and entrepreneur Andrew Breitbart (1969–2012)
That is not a reply - it is an ad hominem - or rather an ad papyrum attack.
Maybe but it's effective - I have a non-political friend who inherited a flat in Spain from his parents. He is very concerned that if the UK left the EU the flat would be harder to sell and there would be uncertainty about free access to medical care for Brits in Spain which would deter holiday renters and potential retirees. Therefore he is voting Remain.
There's a big difference between short visits for holidays, which obviously won't be affected at all, and the right of residence + healthcare. It is factually correct that the latter would be uncertain in the case of a Leave result; it would depend on what deal was agreed.
I must say I thought that removing these automatic reciprocal rights was precisely the intention of the Leavers, so it's a bit odd that they seem to be saying it's scaremongering.
There are in excess of half a million US citizens living in the EU. One wonders how on earth they manage to do this without the US being a member.
When that court is the ECJ it certainly would stand up.
Oh and look who decides these things....
What's amazing is that I could easily see the ECJ rule that our opt-out is in contravention of the Treaty of Rome and therefore void, but they will also rule that Dave giving up the veto on EMU integration is legally binding. The "deal" won't as a whole be declared void because there are parts of it which they like, the red/yellow card system is something I've heard that Brussels is now in favour of because they can use it to stop the Northern countries from pushing through market oriented reforms and of course the UK giving up it's treaty veto for EMU integration.
@rowenamason: Cameron says there's "uncertainty" over whether EU citizens in UK + UK citizens in EU have right to stay where they are in event of Brexit
That does raise the interesting question of whether the Remain campaign have made inroads into getting ex-pats to register and vote. Does anyone know?
A lot of advertising here in Spain about the uncertainty posed by 'Leave' and the need to register. Everyone I know has their postal vote organised - and friends and family back in the UK fully primed of the potential dangers to their cheap breaks in the sun.
There is no such danger.
There you are wrong - there is a very real danger and expats as well as the many thousands more with second homes here are very aware of it. If you cannot see that a potential Leave vote produces this uncertainty then you haven't been following.
Utter rubbish. Cheap breaks occur inside and outside the EU. Turkey and Tunisia are both very popular destinations for getaways in the sun, and outside the EU. Norway is also popular for a different kind of break, as is Iceland.
And we had visa-free access to Europe pre-1973 and we will have it after.
This is sheer propaganda.
Those cheap breaks are already around 10% more expensive due to the fall in the £ generated by the uncertainty.
Tell me, how much money you made in the Forex markets armed with that foreknowledge?
Or did the £ fall all on its own and you have pinned some nebulous theory to that?
I actually did make some modest amounts as did anyone with the sense to follow a few simple links on the internet.
"I'm an Opinion Polling addict, and, and I've been fighting to get off polling data - shut up TSE! - and, um, for over a year. I've been in rehab twice, and I don't wanna be like people like Angus Reid, that were... and stuff like that. I wanna be a survivor.
I mean I died again on Election night. So, I'm not... I'm not... my cats' lives are out. I... I just wanna say sorry to all the fans and stuff, and uh, I'm glad to be alive, and sorry to me mum as well.
I just want them to know that it's not cool. It's not a cool thing to be an addict. It's not... you know, you're a slave to it, and it took... it's taken everything away from me that I loved, and so I've got to rebuild my life."
As for the reality of a post-remain UK and Con party. I will accept the result. However, I won't leave the party, in fact I hope to get some people I have made contact with through VL to join the party and we can continue to take it over from within. John Major faced down 20-30 "bastards" Cameron is facing down 160 of us and at least 60% of the membership. We are the majority and we will continue to be the majority after the vote and eventually we will have the majority of MPs and the leadership on our side. It's a process that has been on going.
I don't think that the EU is ever going to be reformed in our favour. The idea that we can opt-out of the political union with no economic consequences is also a complete nonsense, that's if the new opt-out is proven to be legally binding (I have my doubts). I've said it time and again, we are either all-in or all-out. Our halfway house is politically and economically damaging, we currently have the worst of both worlds. Imposition of EU trade tariffs and no real influence within the EU to change that.
Honest question - I've heard lots about Leavers 'taking over' the Conservative party but this seems to be a skeptics dream. The Tories have been split on Europe as long as I can remember, and even if a Leaver was elected leader, that wouldn't change. Even if Cameron had shocked everyone and supported Leave, there would still have been over 100 MPs and horrified activists on the ground - it's just that it would have been different parts of the party as aghast as the Leavers are at the moment. So how do Leavers "take-over" the Conservative party when so many key figures past and present just aren't going to go there?
Maybe but it's effective - I have a non-political friend who inherited a flat in Spain from his parents. He is very concerned that if the UK left the EU the flat would be harder to sell and there would be uncertainty about free access to medical care for Brits in Spain which would deter holiday renters and potential retirees. Therefore he is voting Remain.
There's a big difference between short visits for holidays, which obviously won't be affected at all, and the right of residence + healthcare. It is factually correct that the latter would be uncertain in the case of a Leave result; it would depend on what deal was agreed.
I must say I thought that removing these automatic reciprocal rights was precisely the intention of the Leavers, so it's a bit odd that they seem to be saying it's scaremongering.
I think leavers want to remove the rights of EU citizens to live in the UK but keep the rights of UK citizens to live in other EU countries.
No, I think they want a points-based system for immigration, which would presumably be reciprocated by the EU. Free movement for the European elites; plebs stay at home.
@rowenamason: Cameron says there's "uncertainty" over whether EU citizens in UK + UK citizens in EU have right to stay where they are in event of Brexit
That does raise the interesting question of whether the Remain campaign have made inroads into getting ex-pats to register and vote. Does anyone know?
A lot of advertising here in Spain about the uncertainty posed by 'Leave' and the need to register. Everyone I know has their postal vote organised - and friends and family back in the UK fully primed of the potential dangers to their cheap breaks in the sun.
There is no such danger.
There you are wrong - there is a very real danger and expats as well as the many thousands more with second homes here are very aware of it. If you cannot see that a potential Leave vote produces this uncertainty then you haven't been following.
Utter rubbish. Cheap breaks occur inside and outside the EU. Turkey and Tunisia are both very popular destinations for getaways in the sun, and outside the EU. Norway is also popular for a different kind of break, as is Iceland.
And we had visa-free access to Europe pre-1973 and we will have it after.
This is sheer propaganda.
Those cheap breaks are already around 10% more expensive due to the fall in the £ generated by the uncertainty.
Tell me, how much money you made in the Forex markets armed with that foreknowledge?
Or did the £ fall all on its own and you have pinned some nebulous theory to that?
The pound has been rising gently against the dollar since March, from 1.38 to 1.46. Since April the Euro has declined from 80p to 76p.
This time last year the Euro was hovering between 69-70p for quite a while.
Maybe but it's effective - I have a non-political friend who inherited a flat in Spain from his parents. He is very concerned that if the UK left the EU the flat would be harder to sell and there would be uncertainty about free access to medical care for Brits in Spain which would deter holiday renters and potential retirees. Therefore he is voting Remain.
There's a big difference between short visits for holidays, which obviously won't be affected at all, and the right of residence + healthcare. It is factually correct that the latter would be uncertain in the case of a Leave result; it would depend on what deal was agreed.
I must say I thought that removing these automatic reciprocal rights was precisely the intention of the Leavers, so it's a bit odd that they seem to be saying it's scaremongering.
There are in excess of half a million US citizens living in the EU. One wonders how on earth they manage to do this without the US being a member.
Maybe but it's effective - I have a non-political friend who inherited a flat in Spain from his parents. He is very concerned that if the UK left the EU the flat would be harder to sell and there would be uncertainty about free access to medical care for Brits in Spain which would deter holiday renters and potential retirees. Therefore he is voting Remain.
There's a big difference between short visits for holidays, which obviously won't be affected at all, and the right of residence + healthcare. It is factually correct that the latter would be uncertain in the case of a Leave result; it would depend on what deal was agreed.
I must say I thought that removing these automatic reciprocal rights was precisely the intention of the Leavers, so it's a bit odd that they seem to be saying it's scaremongering.
I think leavers want to remove the rights of EU citizens to live in the UK but keep the rights of UK citizens to live in other EU countries.
Nope. Existing EU residents in the UK, and those UK nationals living in the EU already, would be unaffected.
It's the rights of (mutual) free settlement in the future that would be negotiated.
Wrong again. that too is uncertain as you cannot predict what a British govt would be able to negotiate with France, Spain, Italy, etc. Especially with Leave saying they want to end free movement.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November is a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
2. A real spanner in the works, though, could be the emergence of stories about mob links. You can't do big builds in New York without having to deal with the mafia, apparently. 3. If he does win he is going to have trouble bringing in A list Republicans to serve in his administration. He's just too unpredictable. 4. He may not actually be a Republican! 5. The Senate looks like it may flip to the Democrats in November, before flipping back to the GOP in 2018.
Make of this what you will. No huge surprises, but 2 and 4 may explain a lot about why Trump is so worrisome for the GOP establishment.
Any rumours of a Veep?
If Trump picks a young, likeable, successful woman it's over for Clinton.
Second-guessing VP picks is always a needle in a haystack job. The obvious candidates are nearly always too short in the betting (Gingrich - evens?!) and there are so many wildcard options that picking the nominee involves a huge element of luck. As with all such nominations, you have to work out what the preferences are of both the candidate and his/her potential running mates (would the accept even if asked?).
FWIW, I think Susana Martinez would be an excellent pick for Trump but that assumes that she'd want to serve with him and him with her.
No president ever has won because of their VP, with possible exception of LBS winning Texas for JFK though he would have won without it. Personally I think Trump might pick Scott Brown, Hillary Castro or Warren
No, I think they want a points-based system for immigration, which would presumably be reciprocated by the EU. Free movement for the European elites; plebs stay at home.
With gold-wearing British gangsters with big houses in Spain counting as elite.
"I'm an Opinion Polling addict, and, and I've been fighting to get off polling data - shut up TSE! - and, um, for over a year. I've been in rehab twice, and I don't wanna be like people like Angus Reid, that were... and stuff like that. I wanna be a survivor.
I mean I died again on Election night. So, I'm not... I'm not... my cats' lives are out. I... I just wanna say sorry to all the fans and stuff, and uh, I'm glad to be alive, and sorry to me mum as well.
I just want them to know that it's not cool. It's not a cool thing to be an addict. It's not... you know, you're a slave to it, and it took... it's taken everything away from me that I loved, and so I've got to rebuild my life."
"Imma let you finish, but I just wanna say that ICM is the best opinion pollster of *all time*!!"
As for the reality of a post-remain UK and Con party. I will accept the result. However, I won't leave the party, in fact I hope to get some people I have made contact with through VL to join the party and we can continue to take it over from within.
With a month to go until a once in a generation referendum on the issue at hand, you're busy concocting entryist plots which would render the party that delivered that referendum unelectable.
There are in excess of half a million US citizens living in the EU. One wonders how on earth they manage to do this without the US being a member.
Good point. You may be right that leaving the EU will have a negligible effect on immigration from EU countries.
In fact US citizens in Spain have a much rougher time organising residence. healthcare and work permits - I have a friend who waited over a year to get things settled and of course he had to organise private health cover despite being in his 70s. Basically you need to be pretty comfortably off to do it easily.
As for the reality of a post-remain UK and Con party. I will accept the result. However, I won't leave the party, in fact I hope to get some people I have made contact with through VL to join the party and we can continue to take it over from within. John Major faced down 20-30 "bastards" Cameron is facing down 160 of us and at least 60% of the membership. We are the majority and we will continue to be the majority after the vote and eventually we will have the majority of MPs and the leadership on our side. It's a process that has been on going.
I don't think that the EU is ever going to be reformed in our favour. The idea that we can opt-out of the political union with no economic consequences is also a complete nonsense, that's if the new opt-out is proven to be legally binding (I have my doubts). I've said it time and again, we are either all-in or all-out. Our halfway house is politically and economically damaging, we currently have the worst of both worlds. Imposition of EU trade tariffs and no real influence within the EU to change that.
Honest question - I've heard lots about Leavers 'taking over' the Conservative party but this seems to be a skeptics dream. The Tories have been split on Europe as long as I can remember, and even if a Leaver was elected leader, that wouldn't change. Even if Cameron had shocked everyone and supported Leave, there would still have been over 100 MPs and horrified activists on the ground - it's just that it would have been different parts of the party as aghast as the Leavers are at the moment. So how do Leavers "take-over" the Conservative party when so many key figures past and present just aren't going to go there?
I am not a member having abandoned the Tories long ago but I really can't see why the Eurosceptics would even want to take over the party if they lose the referendum. The amount of shit that is heading our way after a Remain vote should rightly hit the Europhile's fan. Why let them get out of taking responsibility for the mess they cause.
The ideal for me is to see four years of complete shit for the current Tory administration followed by humiliation at the next election. It is no more than they deserve. After that the Euroscpetic Tories can try and rebuild the party if they want to.
As for the reality of a post-remain UK and Con party. I will accept the result. However, I won't leave the party, in fact I hope to get some people I have made contact with through VL to join the party and we can continue to take it over from within. John Major faced down 20-30 "bastards" Cameron is facing down 160 of us and at least 60% of the membership. We are the majority and we will continue to be the majority after the vote and eventually we will have the majority of MPs and the leadership on our side. It's a process that has been on going.
I don't think that the EU is ever going to be reformed in our favour. The idea that we can opt-out of the political union with no economic consequences is also a complete nonsense, that's if the new opt-out is proven to be legally binding (I have my doubts). I've said it time and again, we are either all-in or all-out. Our halfway house is politically and economically damaging, we currently have the worst of both worlds. Imposition of EU trade tariffs and no real influence within the EU to change that.
Honest question - I've heard lots about Leavers 'taking over' the Conservative party but this seems to be a skeptics dream. The Tories have been split on Europe as long as I can remember, and even if a Leaver was elected leader, that wouldn't change. Even if Cameron had shocked everyone and supported Leave, there would still have been over 100 MPs and horrified activists on the ground - it's just that it would have been different parts of the party as aghast as the Leavers are at the moment. So how do Leavers "take-over" the Conservative party when so many key figures past and present just aren't going to go there?
Well I'm saying it because it's already happening. As I said, Major faced down 20-30 EU rebels, Cameron is facing down almost half of MPs. I'm told by other members who were active at the time that in those times the membership was easily 80-20 in favour of the EU and today I would guess it is a 60-40 split for Leave.
If Dave had declared for Leave my opinion is that around 260-270 MPs would be in the Leave camp and around 80% of members would be in the Leave camp, we would have a landslide victory for Leave. As some, including me, have pointed out. The Tory party isn't split on the EU so much as it is split on supporting the leadership's position of remaining in the EU, if the position was to leave then there wouldn't be much talk of splits as there wouldn't really be any I mean who really cares what Ken Clark thinks these days.
Maybe but it's effective - I have a non-political friend who inherited a flat in Spain from his parents. He is very concerned that if the UK left the EU the flat would be harder to sell and there would be uncertainty about free access to medical care for Brits in Spain which would deter holiday renters and potential retirees. Therefore he is voting Remain.
There's a big difference between short visits for holidays, which obviously won't be affected at all, and the right of residence + healthcare. It is factually correct that the latter would be uncertain in the case of a Leave result; it would depend on what deal was agreed.
I must say I thought that removing these automatic reciprocal rights was precisely the intention of the Leavers, so it's a bit odd that they seem to be saying it's scaremongering.
I think leavers want to remove the rights of EU citizens to live in the UK but keep the rights of UK citizens to live in other EU countries.
Nope. Existing EU residents in the UK, and those UK nationals living in the EU already, would be unaffected.
It's the rights of (mutual) free settlement in the future that would be negotiated.
Wrong again. that too is uncertain as you cannot predict what a British govt would be able to negotiate with France, Spain, Italy, etc. Especially with Leave saying they want to end free movement.
No, it's not wrong - that would be the essential basis of a deal and well you know it.
Maybe but it's effective - I have a non-political friend who inherited a flat in Spain from his parents. He is very concerned that if the UK left the EU the flat would be harder to sell and there would be uncertainty about free access to medical care for Brits in Spain which would deter holiday renters and potential retirees. Therefore he is voting Remain.
There's a big difference between short visits for holidays, which obviously won't be affected at all, and the right of residence + healthcare. It is factually correct that the latter would be uncertain in the case of a Leave result; it would depend on what deal was agreed.
I must say I thought that removing these automatic reciprocal rights was precisely the intention of the Leavers, so it's a bit odd that they seem to be saying it's scaremongering.
I think leavers want to remove the rights of EU citizens to live in the UK but keep the rights of UK citizens to live in other EU countries.
Nope. Existing EU residents in the UK, and those UK nationals living in the EU already, would be unaffected.
It's the rights of (mutual) free settlement in the future that would be negotiated.
Wrong again. that too is uncertain as you cannot predict what a British govt would be able to negotiate with France, Spain, Italy, etc. Especially with Leave saying they want to end free movement.
Yup, if you're Spain and you've got a lot of long-term-resident British pensioners in Spain vs young Spanish people working or studying in the UK for a couple of years and moving on, it's not obvious that you'd accept a deal along the lines of "Everybody can stay where they are until they leave of their own accord, but the next lot are SOL".
"I'm an Opinion Polling addict, and, and I've been fighting to get off polling data - shut up TSE! - and, um, for over a year. I've been in rehab twice, and I don't wanna be like people like Angus Reid, that were... and stuff like that. I wanna be a survivor.
I mean I died again on Election night. So, I'm not... I'm not... my cats' lives are out. I... I just wanna say sorry to all the fans and stuff, and uh, I'm glad to be alive, and sorry to me mum as well.
I just want them to know that it's not cool. It's not a cool thing to be an addict. It's not... you know, you're a slave to it, and it took... it's taken everything away from me that I loved, and so I've got to rebuild my life."
"Imma let you finish, but I just wanna say that ICM is the best opinion pollster of *all time*!!"
As for the reality of a post-remain UK and Con party. I will accept the result. However, I won't leave the party, in fact I hope to get some people I have made contact with through VL to join the party and we can continue to take it over from within.
With a month to go until a once in a generation referendum on the issue at hand, you're busy concocting entryist plots which would render the party that delivered that referendum unelectable.
No entryist plots, just a continuation of what is currently happening. Euroscepticism is mainstream within the Conservative party, the PM has split the party by going against the mainstream consensus (one that he helped to build, no less).
Maybe but it's effective - I have a non-political friend who inherited a flat in Spain from his parents. He is very concerned that if the UK left the EU the flat would be harder to sell and there would be uncertainty about free access to medical care for Brits in Spain which would deter holiday renters and potential retirees. Therefore he is voting Remain.
There's a big difference between short visits for holidays, which obviously won't be affected at all, and the right of residence + healthcare. It is factually correct that the latter would be uncertain in the case of a Leave result; it would depend on what deal was agreed.
I must say I thought that removing these automatic reciprocal rights was precisely the intention of the Leavers, so it's a bit odd that they seem to be saying it's scaremongering.
I think leavers want to remove the rights of EU citizens to live in the UK but keep the rights of UK citizens to live in other EU countries.
Nope. Existing EU residents in the UK, and those UK nationals living in the EU already, would be unaffected.
It's the rights of (mutual) free settlement in the future that would be negotiated.
Wrong again. that too is uncertain as you cannot predict what a British govt would be able to negotiate with France, Spain, Italy, etc. Especially with Leave saying they want to end free movement.
No, it's not wrong - that would be the essential basis of a deal and well you know it.
Neither I nor you are the UK/French/Spanish govts as such we simply cannot predict what might happen . I know you don't like it but that is the reality.
However, what we need is a leaver who can take over the Conservative leadership,
No we really don't
Nobody wants IDS Mk2
Or shall we get John Major who can lose us 178 seats all over again and lead us to the worst vote share we've ever had.
Major won against the odds but was then let down by the anti-EU "bastards" which notably included IDS.
Nope. Major screwed himself. It was his moronic attachment to ERM that sowed the seeds of his destruction and even when it was happening he still wouldn't accept he had fucked up.
I mean this guy is so dumb he managed to sign a treaty with opt outs that turned out to be completely meaningless. In spite of being told that was the case before hand.
@rowenamason: Cameron says there's "uncertainty" over whether EU citizens in UK + UK citizens in EU have right to stay where they are in event of Brexit
That does raise the interesting question of whether the Remain campaign have made inroads into getting ex-pats to register and vote. Does anyone know?
A lot of advertising here in Spain about the uncertainty posed by 'Leave' and the need to register. Everyone I know has their postal vote organised - and friends and family back in the UK fully primed of the potential dangers to their cheap breaks in the sun.
There is no such danger.
There you are wrong - there is a very real danger and expats as well as the many thousands more with second homes here are very aware of it. If you cannot see that a potential Leave vote produces this uncertainty then you haven't been following.
Utter rubbish. Cheap breaks occur inside and outside the EU. Turkey and Tunisia are both very popular destinations for getaways in the sun, and outside the EU. Norway is also popular for a different kind of break, as is Iceland. And we had visa-free access to Europe pre-1973 and we will have it after. This is sheer propaganda.
The cost of eurozone holidays around the Med are higher than they should be because of the euro and the effect of the german economy. Italy and Greece for example should see their currency vs £ fall in line with their economic situation. If we and other countries took more holidays to these places and brought in more foreign currency to them, their economies would benefit.
ELBOW was such a waste of my time between August 2014 and Election Day!! All those days I could have explored the GB rail network - only really got cracking last May!
The UK can control non-EU immigration now. Given than it is consistently higher than EU immigration and it hasn't diminished much over time, it's not clear that overall immigration will drop significantly on Brexit
This is all very fair and judicious, but you miss one necessity. The Tory party must rid itself of this parasitic overclass of europhiles, the boyars of the metrosexual centre - Cameron, Osborne, and the rest.
Let's face it, they've hardly turned out to be the greatest success, economically, have they? And their policies are completely indistinguishable from Blairism.Anon.
You've clearly lost all sense of perspective if that's your honest belief.
Economically Cameron and Osborne have cut real terms spending. Economically Blair and Brown doubled real terms spending.
Anyone who can't see a difference between those has lost all perspective.
The UK can control non-EU immigration now. Given than it is consistently higher than EU immigration and it hasn't diminished much over time, it's not clear that overall immigration will drop significantly on Brexit
Isn't that because we put the big limits on non-EU immigration decades ago? The non-EU population of the world is about 6.5 billion, compared to 500 million in the EU, so you would expect a lot more to be coming here if it was equally easy.
On this breitbart report there is a link to an Austrian paper with evidence of 150% turnouts...
Breitbart News Network (known simply as Breitbart News, Breitbart or Breitbart.com) is a politically conservative[4][5][6] American news and opinion website founded in 2007 by conservative commentator and entrepreneur Andrew Breitbart (1969–2012)
The pound has been rising gently against the dollar since March, from 1.38 to 1.46. Since April the Euro has declined from 80p to 76p.
1EUR=0.76GBP is equivalent to 1GBP=1.31EUR. Which is not really impressive. Wake me up when GBP hits 1GBP=1.65USD and 1GBP=1.45EUR. Both of which it has hit over the past two (three?) years
@rowenamason: Cameron says there's "uncertainty" over whether EU citizens in UK + UK citizens in EU have right to stay where they are in event of Brexit
That does raise the interesting question of whether the Remain campaign have made inroads into getting ex-pats to register and vote. Does anyone know?
A lot of advertising here in Spain about the uncertainty posed by 'Leave' and the need to register. Everyone I know has their postal vote organised - and friends and family back in the UK fully primed of the potential dangers to their cheap breaks in the sun.
There is no such danger.
There you are wrong - there is a very real danger and expats as well as the many thousands more with second homes here are very aware of it. If you cannot see that a potential Leave vote produces this uncertainty then you haven't been following.
Utter rubbish. Cheap breaks occur inside and outside the EU. Turkey and Tunisia are both very popular destinations for getaways in the sun, and outside the EU. Norway is also popular for a different kind of break, as is Iceland. And we had visa-free access to Europe pre-1973 and we will have it after. This is sheer propaganda.
The cost of eurozone holidays around the Med are higher than they should be because of the euro and the effect of the german economy. Italy and Greece for example should see their currency vs £ fall in line with their economic situation. If we and other countries took more holidays to these places and brought in more foreign currency to them, their economies would benefit.
The cost of living in this part of Spain is around 30% less than in the UK although the recently falling £ has started to reverse that. however, every good poll for Remain'sees an immediate bounce for the £ and if the vote goes the right way that should see stability at a comfortable level. Vote leave and expect another 10-15% fall in sterling at least for the short/medium term
We have a golden opportunity for reform when they try to negotiate a new Eurozone Treaty. It is imperative they do this in the next few years, so when that happens we should demand changes in our favour. If they try to sign a separate treaty without doing this, we should refuse to let them use EU institutions and buildings. That was Cameron's mistake last time.
Enhanced Cooperation is in the treaties precisely to prevent individual member states from playing silly buggers like this. (The British signed up to this because they don't want to be dicked around either when they wanted something that some other member states didn't, like a single system for patents.)
But even Enhanced Cooperation didn't exist, it's not really obvious how it helps Britain for the other member states to use different buildings.
How come this wasn't used for the European Fiscal Compact?
The UK can control non-EU immigration now. Given than it is consistently higher than EU immigration and it hasn't diminished much over time, it's not clear that overall immigration will drop significantly on Brexit
Don't look at me! I became a full UK Citizen in 1988!
Maybe but it's effective - I have a non-political friend who inherited a flat in Spain from his parents. He is very concerned that if the UK left the EU the flat would be harder to sell and there would be uncertainty about free access to medical care for Brits in Spain which would deter holiday renters and potential retirees. Therefore he is voting Remain.
There's a big difference between short visits for holidays, which obviously won't be affected at all, and the right of residence + healthcare. It is factually correct that the latter would be uncertain in the case of a Leave result; it would depend on what deal was agreed.
I must say I thought that removing these automatic reciprocal rights was precisely the intention of the Leavers, so it's a bit odd that they seem to be saying it's scaremongering.
I think leavers want to remove the rights of EU citizens to live in the UK but keep the rights of UK citizens to live in other EU countries.
Nope. Existing EU residents in the UK, and those UK nationals living in the EU already, would be unaffected.
It's the rights of (mutual) free settlement in the future that would be negotiated.
Wrong again. that too is uncertain as you cannot predict what a British govt would be able to negotiate with France, Spain, Italy, etc. Especially with Leave saying they want to end free movement.
No, it's not wrong - that would be the essential basis of a deal and well you know it.
Neither I nor you are the UK/French/Spanish govts as such we simply cannot predict what might happen . I know you don't like it but that is the reality.
Oh, we can predict what would happen alright. That doesn't mean we can say with all certainty what would happen, but that goes for Remain as well.
We can make sensible common sense predictions with a balance of probability. For example, settled UK residents in Spain would be automatically given indefinite leave to remain, probably those with at least 4 years standing, and the same would apply in the UK. Those with fewer years would be looked upon favourably as well, depending on circumstances.
The new EU-UK treaty would clearly involve sensible decisions on this. If you want to disagree and put everything down to 'uncertainty' then that is your prerogative, but I don't agree with it.
As for the reality of a post-remain UK and Con party. I will accept the result. However, I won't leave the party, in fact I hope to get some people I have made contact with through VL to join the party and we can continue to take it over from within. John Major faced down 20-30 "bastards" Cameron is facing down 160 of us and at least 60% of the membership. We are the majority and we will continue to be the majority after the vote and eventually we will have the majority of MPs and the leadership on our side. It's a process that has been on going.
I don't think that the EU is ever going to be reformed in our favour. The idea that we can opt-out of the political union with no economic consequences is also a complete nonsense, that's if the new opt-out is proven to be legally binding (I have my doubts). I've said it time and again, we are either all-in or all-out. Our halfway house is politically and economically damaging, we currently have the worst of both worlds. Imposition of EU trade tariffs and no real influence within the EU to change that.
Honest question - I've heard lots about Leavers 'taking over' the Conservative party but this seems to be a skeptics dream. The Tories have been split on Europe as long as I can remember, and even if a Leaver was elected leader, that wouldn't change. Even if Cameron had shocked everyone and supported Leave, there would still have been over 100 MPs and horrified activists on the ground - it's just that it would have been different parts of the party as aghast as the Leavers are at the moment. So how do Leavers "take-over" the Conservative party when so many key figures past and present just aren't going to go there?
I think the split in the Tory Party dates back to 1988 and Delors speech to the TUC conference followed up in 1990 when Delors made his famous speech challenging Thatcher's subtle approach to industrial relations.
"Up Yours Delors" was the Eurosceptic battle cry. The scales dropped from their eyes. The mirror cracked from side to side. It was a moment of great anger and emotion for many Tories that still hasn't subsided though the origins are probably forgotten. It split the party.
Delors has a lot to answer for, including this referendum, as his 1990 intervention was unnecessary and provocative and made on British soil to rub it in.
We have a golden opportunity for reform when they try to negotiate a new Eurozone Treaty. It is imperative they do this in the next few years, so when that happens we should demand changes in our favour. If they try to sign a separate treaty without doing this, we should refuse to let them use EU institutions and buildings. That was Cameron's mistake last time.
Enhanced Cooperation is in the treaties precisely to prevent individual member states from playing silly buggers like this. (The British signed up to this because they don't want to be dicked around either when they wanted something that some other member states didn't, like a single system for patents.)
But even Enhanced Cooperation didn't exist, it's not really obvious how it helps Britain for the other member states to use different buildings.
How come this wasn't used for the European Fiscal Compact?
It was. However, the other EU countries came around to our position and realised what a poor idea it all was so they have quietly forgotten about it and the enforcement mechanisms. The same has happened for the financial transaction tax.
I don't know quite enough about internal Conservative politics (although I am a party member) but I think the good thing about this referendum campaign is that it demonstrates that EU-sceptics are not all what the media/political opposition regard as the 'right-wing headbangers'. On the one hand this risks confusing the Brexit message (just what is the post-EU vision?) in the short term but on the other hand in the medium/long term it starts a new internal debate and may lead to exciting post-EU visions being developed.
I would also note that for political expediency or not, even those Conservatives campaigning for Remain are not doing so with a love of the EU as their core message. Beyond a few EU-Federalists, the party is EU-sceptic but clearly differs over how reform can take place and how much EU they are willing to accept. I think it would be a sad day for the party if we were not a place where EU-Federalists could sit (a) because I want to see mature debate in politics and (b) because someone's views on the EU doesn't mean we wouldn't share views on the vast majority of the rest of public policy.
Many thanks for the kind words below on my approach to the referendum. My involvement in the Leave campaign is limited to offering to volunteer so far; albeit without any specific response from the campaign telling me how I can help!! My campaign approach for VoteLeave would be to try to ensure the voters see this is not a status quo vs. Leave choice (remaining has legitimate risks), I would also seriously have considered offering a phased approach to Leaving i.e. post-Brexit vote the UK government will liaise with the EU and look for a specific-UK deal. If this is unlikely to be on offer, we would seek EEA membership as a transition (enacting Article 50 to give us 2 years to plan this move) and then highlight we will negotiate from the EEA towards a UK specific deal, particularly in terms of free movement. I know this is not risk-free and would not appeal to all Brexit supporters (it may also not be campaign-savvy, but I'm no Lynton Crosby) but it would de-risk the process of leaving somewhat for many voters. But the EEA option needs a lot of working up and communication because it is too easy for Remain supporters to argue it is the worse of all worlds when it really isn't. That hard work is unlikely to be possible in 4 weeks.
As for the reality of a post-remain UK and Con party. I will accept the result. However, I won't leave the party, in fact I hope to get some people I have made contact with through VL to join the party and we can continue to take it over from within. John Major faced down 20-30 "bastards" Cameron is facing down 160 of us and at least 60% of the membership. We are the majority and we will continue to be the majority after the vote and eventually we will have the majority of MPs and the leadership on our side. It's a process that has been on going.
I don't think that the EU is ever going to be reformed in our favour. The idea that we can opt-out of the political union with no economic consequences is also a complete nonsense, that's if the new opt-out is proven to be legally binding (I have my doubts). I've said it time and again, we are either all-in or all-out. Our halfway house is politically and economically damaging, we currently have the worst of both worlds. Imposition of EU trade tariffs and no real influence within the EU to change that.
Honest question - I've heard lots about Leavers 'taking over' the Conservative party but this seems to be a skeptics dream. The Tories have been split on Europe as long as I can remember, and even if a Leaver was elected leader, that wouldn't change. Even if Cameron had shocked everyone and supported Leave, there would still have been over 100 MPs and horrified activists on the ground - it's just that it would have been different parts of the party as aghast as the Leavers are at the moment. So how do Leavers "take-over" the Conservative party when so many key figures past and present just aren't going to go there?
I am not a member having abandoned the Tories long ago but I really can't see why the Eurosceptics would even want to take over the party if they lose the referendum. The amount of shit that is heading our way after a Remain vote should rightly hit the Europhile's fan. Why let them get out of taking responsibility for the mess they cause.
The ideal for me is to see four years of complete shit for the current Tory administration followed by humiliation at the next election. It is no more than they deserve. After that the Euroscpetic Tories can try and rebuild the party if they want to.
Ironically, the best interest of right wing eurosceptics would be to rejoin the Conservative and Unionist Party. If they did, the next Conservative leader would certainly be a eurosceptic. However, the problem with UKIP types is that you have three people in a room and you get five falling outs.
Maybe but it's effective - I have a non-political friend who inherited a flat in Spain from his parents. He is very concerned that if the UK left the EU the flat would be harder to sell and there would be uncertainty about free access to medical care for Brits in Spain which would deter holiday renters and potential retirees. Therefore he is voting Remain.
There's a big difference between short visits for holidays, which obviously won't be affected at all, and the right of residence + healthcare. It is factually correct that the latter would be uncertain in the case of a Leave result; it would depend on what deal was agreed.
I must say I thought that removing these automatic reciprocal rights was precisely the intention of the Leavers, so it's a bit odd that they seem to be saying it's scaremongering.
I think leavers want to remove the rights of EU citizens to live in the UK but keep the rights of UK citizens to live in other EU countries.
Nope. Existing EU residents in the UK, and those UK nationals living in the EU already, would be unaffected.
It's the rights of (mutual) free settlement in the future that would be negotiated.
Wrong again. that too is uncertain as you cannot predict what a British govt would be able to negotiate with France, Spain, Italy, etc. Especially with Leave saying they want to end free movement.
No, it's not wrong - that would be the essential basis of a deal and well you know it.
Neither I nor you are the UK/French/Spanish govts as such we simply cannot predict what might happen . I know you don't like it but that is the reality.
Oh, we can predict what would happen alright. That doesn't mean we can say with all certainty what would happen, but that goes for Remain as well.
We can make sensible common sense predictions with a balance of probability. For example, settled UK residents in Spain would be automatically given indefinite leave to remain, probably those with at least 4 years standing, and the same would apply in the UK. Those with fewer years would be looked upon favourably as well, depending on circumstances.
The new EU-UK treaty would clearly involve sensible decisions on this. If you want to disagree and put everything down to 'uncertainty' then that is your prerogative, but I don't agree with it.
Tell that to the nervous pensioners out here on limited income with property difficult to sell.
Comments
* When Obama was the main threat, Obama had lower ratings and Hillary had higher ratings, as the main internal opposition to him.
* Now Hillary is the likely nominee and Obama is going away, Obama's ratings are coming back up while Hillary's are going down. Likewise Sanders has relatively high ratings, which I'm sure he wouldn't have if he was the presumptive nominee.
* Since Sanders is still pretending he's in the race, a chunk of his supporters are saying they wouldn't support Hillary, when in fact whether they know it or not they ultimately will. Hillary's supporters responded in a similar way at the same point in the 2008 cycle.
I agree about all-night tubes. Running them an hour or two later would be OK, though - say to about 2am.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36370522
Anyway, I'm off for a bit.
On this breitbart report there is a link to an Austrian paper with evidence of 150% turnouts...
Some may well fall into line, but not all - it won't be a repeat of 2008 by a long shot.
Report is online in the Grauniad
But even Enhanced Cooperation didn't exist, it's not really obvious how it helps Britain for the other member states to use different buildings.
Or did the £ fall all on its own and you have pinned some nebulous theory to that?
I don't think that the EU is ever going to be reformed in our favour. The idea that we can opt-out of the political union with no economic consequences is also a complete nonsense, that's if the new opt-out is proven to be legally binding (I have my doubts). I've said it time and again, we are either all-in or all-out. Our halfway house is politically and economically damaging, we currently have the worst of both worlds. Imposition of EU trade tariffs and no real influence within the EU to change that.
Won't somebody think of the children?
'Resignation of Nicola Sturgeon from the role as MSP of Govan and as the First Minister.'
http://tinyurl.com/z4krnx7
Unfortunately she can't deliver a line without a hammy head nod or inappropriate laugh.
A couple of days away has made me realise how much the referendum has brought out the worst on both sides, and although it's never really been my fight, I can't wait for it to be over. LewisDuckworth's post last night was an example of how petty it's all got, and I'll raise a glass to Mrs Duckworth if it does turn out to be a remain night on June 23rd. JamesM on this thread is as classy as I've seen in a while - Remain should think themselves lucky that people like him haven't been running the Leave campaign.
I know most people here - pace SeanT - care about this much more than I do, but I can't wait for the whole thing to be over. If I can't have a big remain victory, let Leave win well - anything to settle it.
I'll take a rough guess: it'll look to split the phone/online difference by rationalising some adjustment
All of them.
Oh and look who decides these things....
It's the rights of (mutual) free settlement in the future that would be negotiated.
However, what we need is a leaver who can take over the Conservative leadership, so far none come to mind. Andrea Leadsom and Priti Patel are the only two I can think of.
GE Election=League match
Referendum=Cup match
Thankfully, I'm away over the BH weekend with no internet, which I hope will help.
Nobody wants IDS Mk2
shut up TSE! - and, um, for over a year. I've been in rehab twice, and I don't
wanna be like people like Angus Reid, that were... and stuff like that.
I wanna be a survivor.
I mean I died again on Election night. So, I'm not... I'm not... my cats' lives
are out. I... I just wanna say sorry to all the fans and stuff, and uh,
I'm glad to be alive, and sorry to me mum as well.
I just want them to know that it's not cool. It's not a cool thing to be
an addict. It's not... you know, you're a slave to it, and it took... it's
taken everything away from me that I loved, and so I've got to rebuild my life."
The ideal for me is to see four years of complete shit for the current Tory administration followed by humiliation at the next election. It is no more than they deserve. After that the Euroscpetic Tories can try and rebuild the party if they want to.
If Dave had declared for Leave my opinion is that around 260-270 MPs would be in the Leave camp and around 80% of members would be in the Leave camp, we would have a landslide victory for Leave. As some, including me, have pointed out. The Tory party isn't split on the EU so much as it is split on supporting the leadership's position of remaining in the EU, if the position was to leave then there wouldn't be much talk of splits as there wouldn't really be any I mean who really cares what Ken Clark thinks these days.
http://www.tuug.fi/~jaakko/dm/dave.txt
I mean this guy is so dumb he managed to sign a treaty with opt outs that turned out to be completely meaningless. In spite of being told that was the case before hand.
Sounds exactly like Cameron in fact.
Economically Cameron and Osborne have cut real terms spending.
Economically Blair and Brown doubled real terms spending.
Anyone who can't see a difference between those has lost all perspective.
http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at/1605-303.html
Wahlberechtigte 9.026
Abgegebene 13.262 !
Wake me up when GBP hits 1GBP=1.65USD and 1GBP=1.45EUR. Both of which it has hit over the past two (three?) years
We can make sensible common sense predictions with a balance of probability. For example, settled UK residents in Spain would be automatically given indefinite leave to remain, probably those with at least 4 years standing, and the same would apply in the UK. Those with fewer years would be looked upon favourably as well, depending on circumstances.
The new EU-UK treaty would clearly involve sensible decisions on this. If you want to disagree and put everything down to 'uncertainty' then that is your prerogative, but I don't agree with it.
http://www.margaretthatcher.org/archive/Bruges.asp
http://bit.ly/1XtKESg
"Up Yours Delors" was the Eurosceptic battle cry. The scales dropped from their eyes. The mirror cracked from side to side. It was a moment of great anger and emotion for many Tories that still hasn't subsided though the origins are probably forgotten. It split the party.
Delors has a lot to answer for, including this referendum, as his 1990 intervention was unnecessary and provocative and made on British soil to rub it in.
I would also note that for political expediency or not, even those Conservatives campaigning for Remain are not doing so with a love of the EU as their core message. Beyond a few EU-Federalists, the party is EU-sceptic but clearly differs over how reform can take place and how much EU they are willing to accept. I think it would be a sad day for the party if we were not a place where EU-Federalists could sit (a) because I want to see mature debate in politics and (b) because someone's views on the EU doesn't mean we wouldn't share views on the vast majority of the rest of public policy.
Many thanks for the kind words below on my approach to the referendum. My involvement in the Leave campaign is limited to offering to volunteer so far; albeit without any specific response from the campaign telling me how I can help!! My campaign approach for VoteLeave would be to try to ensure the voters see this is not a status quo vs. Leave choice (remaining has legitimate risks), I would also seriously have considered offering a phased approach to Leaving i.e. post-Brexit vote the UK government will liaise with the EU and look for a specific-UK deal. If this is unlikely to be on offer, we would seek EEA membership as a transition (enacting Article 50 to give us 2 years to plan this move) and then highlight we will negotiate from the EEA towards a UK specific deal, particularly in terms of free movement. I know this is not risk-free and would not appeal to all Brexit supporters (it may also not be campaign-savvy, but I'm no Lynton Crosby) but it would de-risk the process of leaving somewhat for many voters. But the EEA option needs a lot of working up and communication because it is too easy for Remain supporters to argue it is the worse of all worlds when it really isn't. That hard work is unlikely to be possible in 4 weeks.