Plato... withholding funding from a UK government would be a hoot....its us that pay it..we just refuse to cough up the 350 million we pay every week..bingo..the EU collapses.
Umm - well that's democratic. More vote again until you agree with me... The EC has already instructed Polish judges to strike down decisions made by the Polish parliament.
Like all lefties, they believe in democracy unless they don't get what they want.
I read the report and I'm beyond WTF. The Commission has new powers to enforce a *rule of law mechanism*. That means any nation state parliament they don't like can be put under 'Constitutional Supervision'. How very Orwellian - and Soviet.
If that parliament refuses to back down - they'll risk being stripped of voting rights and/or have funding blocked.
If I were VoteLeave - I'd be all over this.
I have consistently stated on here that I regard the EU bureaucracy as a living example of Big Brother from 1984. "Imagine a boot stamping on a face - for all eternity" that's my view of the EU
It looks like Remain will win, if they are close with Tories and pensioners let alone ahead it is almost impossible for Leave to win, they need a clear majority with both groups. However I expect the result to be closer than this poll suggests especially as Leave voters are more likely to turn out
SO..As stated up thread..according to the dictionaries .. Leftard is used to describe someone with firmly held Left wing views..nowt to do with their mental condition..
Umm - well that's democratic. More vote again until you agree with me... The EC has already instructed Polish judges to strike down decisions made by the Polish parliament.
Like all lefties, they believe in democracy unless they don't get what they want.
Say those campaigning in a second referendum because they think the public got the last one wrong.
If the first referendum is free and fair, perhaps.
But can a referendum be said to be fair in the mass media age when one side can legally outspend the other by more than two to one?
Oh, I see you're already planning for a third referendum even before the second has been completed. Well let no one accuse the Leave camp of even beginning to respect the expressed views of the Brotish public.
Since Cameron doesn't respect the views of the British people, why should his opponents?
The status quo position of half-in is unsustainable. Therefore in the event of a Remain victory the government should in accordance with its mandate negotiate terms to be properly in, including joining both the euro and Schengen. And then it should, for the first time ever, be honest with the British people and say "this is what EU membership is about and always always had been: so are you in or out?"
And then at least if we're in, we're in - with eyes open and not resented by the federalists for bucking their project. And who knows? We might actually get taken seriously for once.
It does, doesn't it? I can't see the final result being anything other than very close.
We’re back to a discussion of what happens if there’s a close result on a low poll! TBH I’d expect a stock market fall and a run on the pound, no matter who “wins” in those circumstances, but then there’ll be a political fallout.
I intend to vote Leave.. FOR ME THE DISCUSSION AND DEBATE IS OVER..s]aS i LIVE INYTHE MIDDLE OF THE ez IT WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY AWKWARD FOR ME BUT i THINO IT WOUD BE IN THE BEST INTERESTS OF THE
Plato... withholding funding from a UK government would be a hoot....its us that pay it..we just refuse to cough up the 350 million we pay every week..bingo..the EU collapses.
Honestly, it isn't often something makes my blood run cold - but this new EC power does. I'd imagine the Junckers of this world wouldn't approve of Thatcher either.
Quashing with menaces the decisions of elected parliaments has been routinely handwaved away by some Remainers here. Well now we know that isn't some what-if, Poland is getting a dose of it right now.
I hope they give the EC two fingers. Hungary are in a similar state of contrariness. And I'm not surprised.
Pensioners, previously considered to be the most reliable Brexit supporters, now narrowly favoured staying in the union the survey found, with 52 percent of the over-65s intending to vote to "Remain" and 44 percent backing "Leave".
In March it was 34% backing Remain and 62% backing Leave.
If true, that's an 18% swing inside less than two months.
I'm prepared to believe there has been a swing to Remain, but one that heavy and fast amongst the over 65s (who are normally very consistent and less prone to Fear) seems unlikely.
Can any PB Leftard state what the winning manifesto from Labour will be..just the main points will do..
What is a "leftard" ?
I think dear old Richard is seeking to imply left-wingers are retarded. It's a very clever play on words, isn't? To be fair to him he seems to be the only right-winger on here whose focus remains solely on attacking the traditional enemy. The rest of them are at each other's throats in the most vicious way.
I doubt that particular piece of wordplay will catch on. Most people (although perhaps not right-wing Peebies, who seem to be extreme social Darwinists more often than not) regard the retarded as objects of pity. I don't think the likes of Blue Rog and Richard Dodd visit here to exude compassion.
As regards the referendum, que sera sera. At least it's stopped the government making laws for a while.
But what about the LDs? Have they a purpose anymore? The young and naïve now favour the Greens (living on vegetation and shivering in the unheated grass huts is a dream come true). The Labour party is now for the middle-class, metropolitan pretentious, and hoping that the WWC continue to vote for them out of habit. The Tories are whatever you want them to be.
All that remains for Tim and his boys is the protest vote, but being clued to the bum of the EU reeks of the Establishment. Meaning well is no longer enough.
Why would anyone vote for them rather than abstaining? The only reason can be to stop the worst of the rest gaining power.
Pensioners, previously considered to be the most reliable Brexit supporters, now narrowly favoured staying in the union the survey found, with 52 percent of the over-65s intending to vote to "Remain" and 44 percent backing "Leave".
In March it was 34% backing Remain and 62% backing Leave.
If true, that's an 18% swing inside less than two months.
I'm prepared to believe there has been a swing to Remain, but one that heavy and fast amongst the over 65s (who are normally very consistent and less prone to Fear) seems unlikely.
We’ve been listening to our children and grandchildren!
I intend to vote Leave.. FOR ME THE DISCUSSION AND DEBATE IS OVER..s]aS i LIVE INYTHE MIDDLE OF THE ez IT WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY AWKWARD FOR ME BUT i THINO IT WOUD BE IN THE BEST INTERESTS OF THE
it is difficult to emulate green ink on a keyboard, right enough
SO..As stated up thread..according to the dictionaries .. Leftard is used to describe someone with firmly held Left wing views..nowt to do with their mental condition..
Umm - well that's democratic. More vote again until you agree with me... The EC has already instructed Polish judges to strike down decisions made by the Polish parliament.
Like all lefties, they believe in democracy unless they don't get what they want.
I read the report and I'm beyond WTF. The Commission has new powers to enforce a *rule of law mechanism*. That means any nation state parliament they don't like can be put under 'Constitutional Supervision'. How very Orwellian - and Soviet.
If that parliament refuses to back down - they'll risk being stripped of voting rights and/or have funding blocked.
Pensioners, previously considered to be the most reliable Brexit supporters, now narrowly favoured staying in the union the survey found, with 52 percent of the over-65s intending to vote to "Remain" and 44 percent backing "Leave".
In March it was 34% backing Remain and 62% backing Leave.
If true, that's an 18% swing inside less than two months.
I'm prepared to believe there has been a swing to Remain, but one that heavy and fast amongst the over 65s (who are normally very consistent and less prone to Fear) seems unlikely.
We’ve been listening to our children and grandchildren!
We've utterly screwed up the sub-sampling. Quick make some excuse.....
SO..As stated up thread..according to the dictionaries .. Leftard is used to describe someone with firmly held Left wing views..nowt to do with their mental condition..
The problem for the Tory "Outers" is that they still do not control the centre of gravity of the party. They are the weaker third of their party, not the majority. Comedy acts such as Jacob Rees Mogg or Bernard Jenkin are too eccentric to be clubbable, IDS is past it (and anyway electoral toxic waste). Even BoJo is an increasingly isolated figure in the party, however popular he may still be in the country at large. So defeat- especially a big defeat- for Leave will end all hope of regrouping.
Cameron is a lucky politician, but he is also a ruthless one- most of the Tory Brexiteers should not be trusting to the Prime Minister's mercy when this is over. There will be some high profile forgiveness- (Gove?) but equally some high profile punishment (The PM thinks BoJo behaved dishonourably and will not trust him hereafter).
So the LeaveFinder General will be knocking on quite a few doors and if he thinks that the little MPs have been naughty and not nice, then there could be quite a lot of tears before bed time.
Cameron intends to be the leader of a Conservative Party of the moderate centre- it is where his every instinct places him, and Labour under Corbyn will be just as marginalised as the Lib Dems have been and the Tory Right will be.
A Remain vote will end the Tory civil war- with a comprehensive defeat for the right.
*Popcorn*
Cameron doesn't have the political strength to conduct the purge you suggest.
If he tried it, he'd be out of office within weeks.
Sheesh Remainers get good poll news and spend the morning getting grumpy.
Laughing at idiots is not 'grumpy' - it's just laughing at idiots.
Hmm
sour winners don't make good reading.
Look on the bright side the papers are all about deep Tory splits.
Daves on track to win a referendum and lose his party.
hyperbole.. and so early in the morning!
Merely reporting what the UK press is saying.
If you think there's no risk of Conservative rifts getting deeper then good luck with that.
the press reports in its own prejudiced way.. You just shouldn't read the Daily Mail.
Actually just tracking the Tory feud across PB is interesting enough.
Tories on this site have become increasingly shrill in their abuse towards each other.
Based on some of the positions taken to date I increasingly wonder how they can all stay in the same party.
They probably will because the alternatives are too unpalatable. That doesn't mean that they can work together.
If Leave lose, by whatever margin, I'm expecting the headbanger Leavers to have a complete and extended meltdown lasting years. We've already seen them oppose the budget and amend the Queen's Speech. That's only the start.
All the bile and vitriol seems to emanate from the REmainers, looks like it will be repeat of Independence referendum , REmain will win and then constantly whinge about it for years. Probably the same donkeys mind you.
The problem for the Tory "Outers" is that they still do not control the centre of gravity of the party. They are the weaker third of their party, not the majority. Comedy acts such as Jacob Rees Mogg or Bernard Jenkin are too eccentric to be clubbable, IDS is past it (and anyway electoral toxic waste). Even BoJo is an increasingly isolated figure in the party, however popular he may still be in the country at large. So defeat- especially a big defeat- for Leave will end all hope of regrouping.
Cameron is a lucky politician, but he is also a ruthless one- most of the Tory Brexiteers should not be trusting to the Prime Minister's mercy when this is over. There will be some high profile forgiveness- (Gove?) but equally some high profile punishment (The PM thinks BoJo behaved dishonourably and will not trust him hereafter).
So the LeaveFinder General will be knocking on quite a few doors and if he thinks that the little MPs have been naughty and not nice, then there could be quite a lot of tears before bed time.
Cameron intends to be the leader of a Conservative Party of the moderate centre- it is where his every instinct places him, and Labour under Corbyn will be just as marginalised as the Lib Dems have been and the Tory Right will be.
A Remain vote will end the Tory civil war- with a comprehensive defeat for the right.
*Popcorn*
Ridiculous, unless Remain get over 60% then many bitter Leave voting Tories will switch to UKIP, the Tory civil war has barely begun. Cameron may have the centre but will be assailed on the left by Corbyn and the right by UKIP
Pensioners, previously considered to be the most reliable Brexit supporters, now narrowly favoured staying in the union the survey found, with 52 percent of the over-65s intending to vote to "Remain" and 44 percent backing "Leave".
In March it was 34% backing Remain and 62% backing Leave.
If true, that's an 18% swing inside less than two months.
I'm prepared to believe there has been a swing to Remain, but one that heavy and fast amongst the over 65s (who are normally very consistent and less prone to Fear) seems unlikely.
We’ve been listening to our children and grandchildren!
I got my parents to leaflet and canvass for Leave, and convinced my 21 year old nephew!
The problem for the Tory "Outers" is that they still do not control the centre of gravity of the party. They are the weaker third of their party, not the majority. Comedy acts such as Jacob Rees Mogg or Bernard Jenkin are too eccentric to be clubbable, IDS is past it (and anyway electoral toxic waste). Even BoJo is an increasingly isolated figure in the party, however popular he may still be in the country at large. So defeat- especially a big defeat- for Leave will end all hope of regrouping.
Cameron is a lucky politician, but he is also a ruthless one- most of the Tory Brexiteers should not be trusting to the Prime Minister's mercy when this is over. There will be some high profile forgiveness- (Gove?) but equally some high profile punishment (The PM thinks BoJo behaved dishonourably and will not trust him hereafter).
So the LeaveFinder General will be knocking on quite a few doors and if he thinks that the little MPs have been naughty and not nice, then there could be quite a lot of tears before bed time.
Cameron intends to be the leader of a Conservative Party of the moderate centre- it is where his every instinct places him, and Labour under Corbyn will be just as marginalised as the Lib Dems have been and the Tory Right will be.
A Remain vote will end the Tory civil war- with a comprehensive defeat for the right.
*Popcorn*
Cameron doesn't have the political strength to conduct the purge you suggest.
If he tried it, he'd be out of office within weeks.
Draped in the Union flag and 'The Will of The British People'?
I wouldn't count on it......
Oh, the great 'Cameron will be gone within a week' stories on PB.com down the years...
Rode a horse... Shopped at Morrisons Cried at a funeral (that was the other bloke - ed.)
So we should add '(serial) losers take revenge on winner' to the list?
I'm generally not one to pay much attention to unmatched liquidity / bids on betfair, however it is interesting to see the weight of cash on betfair shift towards trump.
eg, someone's looking to back £85,000 @ 4.3
There also isn't a huge amount of cash holding down Hillary's price.
This referendum really cannot come soon enough. The comments on the referendum have made PB in the run up to a GE read like skits from a stand up comedy club.
Although I was tentatively for Leave from the start and have become more so I was also always clear that this issue is simply not worth destroying the Conservative party for, especially at a time when Labour do not offer a coherent or even rational alternative to government. But that is indeed what has happened. The idea that people will kiss and make up after this very bruising encounter is frankly ridiculous.
Whichever side wins, we will have a minority government incapable of producing any meaningful reform or even governance limping all the way to the next election. The FTPA was always a particularly stupid idea and I fear we will pay a heavy price for that idiocy over the next 4 years. I think whichever side wins really should be encouraged to have an election as soon as possible and people can decide if they can reconcile themselves to that winning position and join in or find someone else to stand for.
You do know that it only requires 325 votes to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act, right?
Sheesh Remainers get good poll news and spend the morning getting grumpy.
Laughing at idiots is not 'grumpy' - it's just laughing at idiots.
Hmm
sour winners don't make good reading.
Look on the bright side the papers are all about deep Tory splits.
Daves on track to win a referendum and lose his party.
hyperbole.. and so early in the morning!
Merely reporting what the UK press is saying.
If you think there's no risk of Conservative rifts getting deeper then good luck with that.
the press reports in its own prejudiced way.. You just shouldn't read the Daily Mail.
Actually just tracking the Tory feud across PB is interesting enough.
Tories on this site have become increasingly shrill in their abuse towards each other.
Based on some of the positions taken to date I increasingly wonder how they can all stay in the same party.
That's the impression I get. I don't post very often, but still pop in most days to have a lurk, and the Tory split on here is visceral. I know PB isn't like real life, but if the atmosphere here is indicative of the feeling in the Tory party, there's no way they can just kiss and make up after June 23rd.
Handbags being swung every which way , it is a hoot.
Cameron is now truly Tory Blair, for many on his party's right his EU support is as big a betrayal as Blair's Iraq support was, Labour did hold the centre in 2005 but lost many votes to the LDs
Pensioners, previously considered to be the most reliable Brexit supporters, now narrowly favoured staying in the union the survey found, with 52 percent of the over-65s intending to vote to "Remain" and 44 percent backing "Leave".
In March it was 34% backing Remain and 62% backing Leave.
If true, that's an 18% swing inside less than two months.
I'm prepared to believe there has been a swing to Remain, but one that heavy and fast amongst the over 65s (who are normally very consistent and less prone to Fear) seems unlikely.
It's the consistent c3% DK that bothers me. What are ORB's reseachers doing to get here? If they're forcing a choice, how can there be any DKs?
The problem for the Tory "Outers" is that they still do not control the centre of gravity of the party. They are the weaker third of their party, not the majority. Comedy acts such as Jacob Rees Mogg or Bernard Jenkin are too eccentric to be clubbable, IDS is past it (and anyway electoral toxic waste). Even BoJo is an increasingly isolated figure in the party, however popular he may still be in the country at large. So defeat- especially a big defeat- for Leave will end all hope of regrouping.
Cameron is a lucky politician, but he is also a ruthless one- most of the Tory Brexiteers should not be trusting to the Prime Minister's mercy when this is over. There will be some high profile forgiveness- (Gove?) but equally some high profile punishment (The PM thinks BoJo behaved dishonourably and will not trust him hereafter).
So the LeaveFinder General will be knocking on quite a few doors and if he thinks that the little MPs have been naughty and not nice, then there could be quite a lot of tears before bed time.
Cameron intends to be the leader of a Conservative Party of the moderate centre- it is where his every instinct places him, and Labour under Corbyn will be just as marginalised as the Lib Dems have been and the Tory Right will be.
A Remain vote will end the Tory civil war- with a comprehensive defeat for the right.
*Popcorn*
Cameron doesn't have the political strength to conduct the purge you suggest.
If he tried it, he'd be out of office within weeks.
Draped in the Union flag and 'The Will of The British People'?
I wouldn't count on it......
Oh, the great 'Cameron will be gone within a week' stories on PB.com down the years...
Rode a horse... Shopped at Morrisons Cried at a funeral (that was the other bloke - ed.)
So we should add '(serial) losers take revenge on winner' to the list?
I suppose I'd be more inclined to go with" I won't be PM in 2020". So since there needs to be time to let a successor flourish he's got just over 2 years.
Umm - well that's democratic. More vote again until you agree with me... The EC has already instructed Polish judges to strike down decisions made by the Polish parliament.
Like all lefties, they believe in democracy unless they don't get what they want.
Say those campaigning in a second referendum because they think the public got the last one wrong.
If the first referendum is free and fair, perhaps.
But can a referendum be said to be fair in the mass media age when one side can legally outspend the other by more than two to one?
Oh, I see you're already planning for a third referendum even before the second has been completed. Well let no one accuse the Leave camp of even beginning to respect the expressed views of the Brotish public.
Since Cameron doesn't respect the views of the British people, why should his opponents?
The status quo position of half-in is unsustainable. Therefore in the event of a Remain victory the government should in accordance with its mandate negotiate terms to be properly in, including joining both the euro and Schengen. And then it should, for the first time ever, be honest with the British people and say "this is what EU membership is about and always always had been: so are you in or out?"
And then at least if we're in, we're in - with eyes open and not resented by the federalists for bucking their project. And who knows? We might actually get taken seriously for once.
Probably the best thing for Leave to do if Remain win is to respect the result and say they will continue to hold the EU to account on the deal and its promises.
Then keep a strong, campaigning cross-party organisation in force and go in heavy in the media on every EU move that's anti-democratic, federalising or amounts to scope-creep judicial activism.
Sheesh Remainers get good poll news and spend the morning getting grumpy.
Laughing at idiots is not 'grumpy' - it's just laughing at idiots.
Hmm
sour winners don't make good reading.
Look on the bright side the papers are all about deep Tory splits.
Daves on track to win a referendum and lose his party.
hyperbole.. and so early in the morning!
Merely reporting what the UK press is saying.
If you think there's no risk of Conservative rifts getting deeper then good luck with that.
the press reports in its own prejudiced way.. You just shouldn't read the Daily Mail.
Actually just tracking the Tory feud across PB is interesting enough.
Tories on this site have become increasingly shrill in their abuse towards each other.
Based on some of the positions taken to date I increasingly wonder how they can all stay in the same party.
That's the impression I get. I don't post very often, but still pop in most days to have a lurk, and the Tory split on here is visceral. I know PB isn't like real life, but if the atmosphere here is indicative of the feeling in the Tory party, there's no way they can just kiss and make up after June 23rd.
Handbags being swung every which way , it is a hoot.
No malc they're all one big happy family. Professionals. I mean why would rancourous personal invective against your colleagues influence how you work together in future ?
Umm - well that's democratic. More vote again until you agree with me... The EC has already instructed Polish judges to strike down decisions made by the Polish parliament.
Like all lefties, they believe in democracy unless they don't get what they want.
Say those campaigning in a second referendum because they think the public got the last one wrong.
If the first referendum is free and fair, perhaps.
But can a referendum be said to be fair in the mass media age when one side can legally outspend the other by more than two to one?
Oh, I see you're already planning for a third referendum even before the second has been completed. Well let no one accuse the Leave camp of even beginning to respect the expressed views of the Brotish public.
Since Cameron doesn't respect the views of the British people, why should his opponents?
The status quo position of half-in is unsustainable. Therefore in the event of a Remain victory the government should in accordance with its mandate negotiate terms to be properly in, including joining both the euro and Schengen. And then it should, for the first time ever, be honest with the British people and say "this is what EU membership is about and always always had been: so are you in or out?"
And then at least if we're in, we're in - with eyes open and not resented by the federalists for bucking their project. And who knows? We might actually get taken seriously for once.
Probably the best thing for Leave to do if Remain win is to respect the result and say they will continue to hold the EU to account on the deal and its promises.
Then keep a strong, campaigning cross-party organisation in force and go in heavy in the media on every EU move that's anti-democratic, federalising or amounts to scope-creep judicial activism.
Which will happen.
Are you saying you have more faith in politicians than judges?
Ridiculous, unless Remain get over 60% then many bitter Leave voting Tories will switch to UKIP, the Tory civil war has barely begun. Cameron may have the centre but will be assailed on the left by Corbyn and the right by UKIP
That will result in the return of a further majority Conservative government.
Jezza losing voters to the centre and UKIP. The latter piling up votes for a handful of seats and PM Theresa May in Downing Street until 2025.
Rinse and repeat until Labour come to their senses, UKIP ditch Farage and the SNP implode.
It's important not to get carried away by the succession of phone polls we've seen. If online polls are still at variance with the phone polls, we aren't much further forward in understanding what's going on.
And this is an important point. We have no particularly good reason to believe that the phone polls are better than the online ones. The May elections don't give conclusive evidence either way but some online polls did very well (check the last Scottish poll YouGov conducted, for example).
Just as we shouldn't dismiss polls we don't like the result of, even if there are anomalies in the findings, so we shouldn't believe polls we do like the look of if there's no particular reason to do so above others.
We can certainly suggest reasons why phones might be better than online - activist participation influencing online panels - but if that were the case, one would have expected the May results to be further out than they were.
I'm in the 'not convinced' camp on either set of data. I do however think that Remain looks likely to win given the apparent lack of momentum within Leave and the usual reversion to the status quo among undecideds that occurs in referendums.
Clearly there has been a swing to Remain over the last two weeks. The air war has been relentless, ruthless and merciless.
If that reversion is true then, according to ORB, it's already happened and we're looking at (at best) a 56/44 result to Remain.
The Leave polling seems remarkably stable in the 39-42% bracket, with a couple of spikes. It's the Remain polling that seems to be much more variable (mainly contingent on how the don't knows break)
We could well be on course for a closer result than the SindyRef.
However, it's very unlikely - on current evidence - that on an MoE of +/- 3.5% the phone polls are so wrong as to miss a secret Leave win.
If the methodology of the phone polls is sound then Remain will win on current figures. but that assumes that the methodology *is* sound. Going by the online polls, it's still a tight race and well within the margin of error, never mind future changes in voting intention.
Personally, I veer towards the phone polls but is this also just confirmation bias? They did better at 2015GE, when the online polls became frozen while the phone ones continued to swing towards Con, albeit not enough to report the true picture.
The problem for the Tory "Outers" is that they still do not control the centre of gravity of the party. They are the weaker third of their party, not the majority. Comedy acts such as Jacob Rees Mogg or Bernard Jenkin are too eccentric to be clubbable, IDS is past it (and anyway electoral toxic waste). Even BoJo is an increasingly isolated figure in the party, however popular he may still be in the country at large. So defeat- especially a big defeat- for Leave will end all hope of regrouping.
Cameron is a lucky politician, but he is also a ruthless one- most of the Tory Brexiteers should not be trusting to the Prime Minister's mercy when this is over. There will be some high profile forgiveness- (Gove?) but equally some high profile punishment (The PM thinks BoJo behaved dishonourably and will not trust him hereafter).
So the LeaveFinder General will be knocking on quite a few doors and if he thinks that the little MPs have been naughty and not nice, then there could be quite a lot of tears before bed time.
Cameron intends to be the leader of a Conservative Party of the moderate centre- it is where his every instinct places him, and Labour under Corbyn will be just as marginalised as the Lib Dems have been and the Tory Right will be.
A Remain vote will end the Tory civil war- with a comprehensive defeat for the right.
*Popcorn*
Cameron doesn't have the political strength to conduct the purge you suggest.
If he tried it, he'd be out of office within weeks.
Draped in the Union flag and 'The Will of The British People'?
I wouldn't count on it......
Oh, the great 'Cameron will be gone within a week' stories on PB.com down the years...
Rode a horse... Shopped at Morrisons Cried at a funeral (that was the other bloke - ed.)
So we should add '(serial) losers take revenge on winner' to the list?
If you think Cameron trying to purge the party of Leavers won't lead to a '22 triggered vote of confidence that he'd lose when over 140 MPs will have voted (and campaigned) that way, a majority of his activists and constituency chairman and almost half (at least) of his voters, then we will just have to agree to disagree.
Pensioners, previously considered to be the most reliable Brexit supporters, now narrowly favoured staying in the union the survey found, with 52 percent of the over-65s intending to vote to "Remain" and 44 percent backing "Leave".
In March it was 34% backing Remain and 62% backing Leave.
If true, that's an 18% swing inside less than two months.
I'm prepared to believe there has been a swing to Remain, but one that heavy and fast amongst the over 65s (who are normally very consistent and less prone to Fear) seems unlikely.
It's the consistent c3% DK that bothers me. What are ORB's reseachers doing to get here? If they're forcing a choice, how can there be any DKs?
To be honest, I'd expect a higher than 3% DK if you surveyed any of the following groups:
- Labour party members - Tory party members - Employees at any large media group
And if they're saying that the general public polled by this company are more informed/care more/are more politically motivated than any of the above, it is very hard to take seriously.
On another point, I disagree with most on here - the meme that Leave need to counter is not the economy, that is not going to secure a win for Remain. 'Stay in for your grand children/children' really might. That needs to be countered immediately - if anything the longer term future is much more emotionally significant than a possible few quarters of -0.1 growth. Running Dan Hannan's piece to camera on newsnight last night as a PBB a few weeks out might just do it - the future of an independent Britain would be stronger for our future generations than tying ourselves to a stagnant, protectionist and fundamentally flawed EU.
This referendum really cannot come soon enough. The comments on the referendum have made PB in the run up to a GE read like skits from a stand up comedy club.
Although I was tentatively for Leave from the start and have become more so I was also always clear that this issue is simply not worth destroying the Conservative party for, especially at a time when Labour do not offer a coherent or even rational alternative to government. But that is indeed what has happened. The idea that people will kiss and make up after this very bruising encounter is frankly ridiculous.
Whichever side wins, we will have a minority government incapable of producing any meaningful reform or even governance limping all the way to the next election. The FTPA was always a particularly stupid idea and I fear we will pay a heavy price for that idiocy over the next 4 years. I think whichever side wins really should be encouraged to have an election as soon as possible and people can decide if they can reconcile themselves to that winning position and join in or find someone else to stand for.
You do know that it only requires 325 votes to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act, right?
It doesn't even need repeal, just a one line Bill to amend clause 1(2) would be enough to have an early election.
Pensioners, previously considered to be the most reliable Brexit supporters, now narrowly favoured staying in the union the survey found, with 52 percent of the over-65s intending to vote to "Remain" and 44 percent backing "Leave".
In March it was 34% backing Remain and 62% backing Leave.
If true, that's an 18% swing inside less than two months.
I'm prepared to believe there has been a swing to Remain, but one that heavy and fast amongst the over 65s (who are normally very consistent and less prone to Fear) seems unlikely.
Sheesh Remainers get good poll news and spend the morning getting grumpy.
Laughing at idiots is not 'grumpy' - it's just laughing at idiots.
Hmm
sour winners don't make good reading.
Look on the bright side the papers are all about deep Tory splits.
Daves on track to win a referendum and lose his party.
hyperbole.. and so early in the morning!
Merely reporting what the UK press is saying.
If you think there's no risk of Conservative rifts getting deeper then good luck with that.
the press reports in its own prejudiced way.. You just shouldn't read the Daily Mail.
Actually just tracking the Tory feud across PB is interesting enough.
Tories on this site have become increasingly shrill in their abuse towards each other.
Based on some of the positions taken to date I increasingly wonder how they can all stay in the same party.
They probably will because the alternatives are too unpalatable. That doesn't mean that they can work together.
If Leave lose, by whatever margin, I'm expecting the headbanger Leavers to have a complete and extended meltdown lasting years. We've already seen them oppose the budget and amend the Queen's Speech. That's only the start.
Frankly, I couldn't give a monkeys what happens save for the fact that a Corbyn led or any left wing nutcase Govt would do for this country, The Tories really are the only option at the moment, however many loonies there are within its ranks.
This EU boil had to be lanced ,. and it is being despite the pain it will cause.
The subject isn't going away if Remain wins, no matter what the margin of victory.
If Leave loses, no matter how crushingly, its supporters will not take time to reflect on whether the public was right or whether the Leave message was unconvincing. They will simply conclude that the public got it wrong and look to overturn the democratic decision at the earliest possible opportunity.
Their interest in the democratic process has always been contingent on them actually winning.
I'm not sure why you think "looking to overturn the democratic decision at the earliest possible opportunity" is a bad thing.
To me that's just "participating in the democratic process". Or do you think we should have Elected Dictators For Life?
Ridiculous, unless Remain get over 60% then many bitter Leave voting Tories will switch to UKIP, the Tory civil war has barely begun. Cameron may have the centre but will be assailed on the left by Corbyn and the right by UKIP
That will result in the return of a further majority Conservative government.
Jezza losing voters to the centre and UKIP. The latter piling up votes for a handful of seats and PM Theresa May in Downing Street until 2025.
Rinse and repeat until Labour come to their senses, UKIP ditch Farage and the SNP implode.
Exactly ....
You are currently betting the Jacobite estate on Jezza.
You will be pie meat if Jezza steps down and lets someone else run.
Ridiculous, unless Remain get over 60% then many bitter Leave voting Tories will switch to UKIP, the Tory civil war has barely begun. Cameron may have the centre but will be assailed on the left by Corbyn and the right by UKIP
That will result in the return of a further majority Conservative government.
Jezza losing voters to the centre and UKIP. The latter piling up votes for a handful of seats and PM Theresa May in Downing Street until 2025.
Rinse and repeat until Labour come to their senses, UKIP ditch Farage and the SNP implode.
Exactly ....
You are currently betting the Jacobite estate on Jezza.
You will be pie meat if Jezza steps down and lets someone else run.
This referendum really cannot come soon enough. The comments on the referendum have made PB in the run up to a GE read like skits from a stand up comedy club.
Although I was tentatively for Leave from the start and have become more so I was also always clear that this issue is simply not worth destroying the Conservative party for, especially at a time when Labour do not offer a coherent or even rational alternative to government. But that is indeed what has happened. The idea that people will kiss and make up after this very bruising encounter is frankly ridiculous.
Whichever side wins, we will have a minority government incapable of producing any meaningful reform or even governance limping all the way to the next election. The FTPA was always a particularly stupid idea and I fear we will pay a heavy price for that idiocy over the next 4 years. I think whichever side wins really should be encouraged to have an election as soon as possible and people can decide if they can reconcile themselves to that winning position and join in or find someone else to stand for.
You do know that it only requires 325 votes to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act, right?
Yes. But will 325 MPs in this Parliament agree on anything (apart from the fact that Corbyn is sub optimal, natch).
Pensioners, previously considered to be the most reliable Brexit supporters, now narrowly favoured staying in the union the survey found, with 52 percent of the over-65s intending to vote to "Remain" and 44 percent backing "Leave".
In March it was 34% backing Remain and 62% backing Leave.
If true, that's an 18% swing inside less than two months.
I'm prepared to believe there has been a swing to Remain, but one that heavy and fast amongst the over 65s (who are normally very consistent and less prone to Fear) seems unlikely.
We’ve been listening to our children and grandchildren!
I got my parents to leaflet and canvass for Leave, and convinced my 21 year old nephew!
Umm - well that's democratic. More vote again until you agree with me... The EC has already instructed Polish judges to strike down decisions made by the Polish parliament.
Like all lefties, they believe in democracy unless they don't get what they want.
I read the report and I'm beyond WTF. The Commission has new powers to enforce a *rule of law mechanism*. That means any nation state parliament they don't like can be put under 'Constitutional Supervision'. How very Orwellian - and Soviet.
If that parliament refuses to back down - they'll risk being stripped of voting rights and/or have funding blocked.
If I were VoteLeave - I'd be all over this.
I have consistently stated on here that I regard the EU bureaucracy as a living example of Big Brother from 1984. "Imagine a boot stamping on a face - for all eternity" that's my view of the EU
Good grief. People are going funny.
Certainly are. Steve Hilton is now an official spokesman for 'Leave'. He's an ad man! Very good at what he does but his qualifications for being a spokeman for 'leave' are somewhere around zero
Pensioners, previously considered to be the most reliable Brexit supporters, now narrowly favoured staying in the union the survey found, with 52 percent of the over-65s intending to vote to "Remain" and 44 percent backing "Leave".
In March it was 34% backing Remain and 62% backing Leave.
If true, that's an 18% swing inside less than two months.
I'm prepared to believe there has been a swing to Remain, but one that heavy and fast amongst the over 65s (who are normally very consistent and less prone to Fear) seems unlikely.
It's the consistent c3% DK that bothers me. What are ORB's reseachers doing to get here? If they're forcing a choice, how can there be any DKs?
To be honest, I'd expect a higher than 3% DK if you surveyed any of the following groups:
- Labour party members - Tory party members - Employees at any large media group
And if they're saying that the general public polled by this company are more informed/care more/are more politically motivated than any of the above, it is very hard to take seriously.
On another point, I disagree with most on here - the meme that Leave need to counter is not the economy, that is not going to secure a win for Remain. 'Stay in for your grand children/children' really might. That needs to be countered immediately - if anything the longer term future is much more emotionally significant than a possible few quarters of -0.1 growth. Running Dan Hannan's piece to camera on newsnight last night as a PBB a few weeks out might just do it - the future of an independent Britain would be stronger for our future generations than tying ourselves to a stagnant, protectionist and fundamentally flawed EU.
It's voodoo stuff - but the 47k Mumsnetters who responded to their poll showed Leave at 47% IIRC. They asked members to rank 10 statements and a huge slab of responses were related to the impact of immigration on their childrens' future.
Well worth pushing more here. Gisela is handling questions today for Leave - didn't catch who was doing Remain.
Umm - well that's democratic. More vote again until you agree with me... The EC has already instructed Polish judges to strike down decisions made by the Polish parliament.
Like all lefties, they believe in democracy unless they don't get what they want.
I read the report and I'm beyond WTF. The Commission has new powers to enforce a *rule of law mechanism*. That means any nation state parliament they don't like can be put under 'Constitutional Supervision'. How very Orwellian - and Soviet.
If that parliament refuses to back down - they'll risk being stripped of voting rights and/or have funding blocked.
If I were VoteLeave - I'd be all over this.
I have consistently stated on here that I regard the EU bureaucracy as a living example of Big Brother from 1984. "Imagine a boot stamping on a face - for all eternity" that's my view of the EU
Good grief. People are going funny.
Certainly are. Steve Hilton is now an official spokesman for 'Leave'. He's an ad man! Very good at what he does but his qualifications for being a spokeman for 'leave' are somewhere around zero!
Whatever next. An ad man for PM ?
As someone cruelly but fairly observed yesterday
'Notice how Dave won a majority when Steve Hilton no longer advised him'
Sheesh Remainers get good poll news and spend the morning getting grumpy.
Laughing at idiots is not 'grumpy' - it's just laughing at idiots.
Hmm
sour winners don't make good reading.
Look on the bright side the papers are all about deep Tory splits.
Daves on track to win a referendum and lose his party.
hyperbole.. and so early in the morning!
Merely reporting what the UK press is saying.
If you think there's no risk of Conservative rifts getting deeper then good luck with that.
the press reports in its own prejudiced way.. You just shouldn't read the Daily Mail.
Actually just tracking the Tory feud across PB is interesting enough.
Tories on this site have become increasingly shrill in their abuse towards each other.
Based on some of the positions taken to date I increasingly wonder how they can all stay in the same party.
That's the impression I get. I don't post very often, but still pop in most days to have a lurk, and the Tory split on here is visceral. I know PB isn't like real life, but if the atmosphere here is indicative of the feeling in the Tory party, there's no way they can just kiss and make up after June 23rd.
Handbags being swung every which way , it is a hoot.
They should really take a lesson from the SNP and focus on sex and money rather than all this splitting nonsense.
This referendum really cannot come soon enough. The comments on the referendum have made PB in the run up to a GE read like skits from a stand up comedy club.
Although I was tentatively for Leave from the start and have become more so I was also always clear that this issue is simply not worth destroying the Conservative party for, especially at a time when Labour do not offer a coherent or even rational alternative to government. But that is indeed what has happened. The idea that people will kiss and make up after this very bruising encounter is frankly ridiculous.
Whichever side wins, we will have a minority government incapable of producing any meaningful reform or even governance limping all the way to the next election. The FTPA was always a particularly stupid idea and I fear we will pay a heavy price for that idiocy over the next 4 years. I think whichever side wins really should be encouraged to have an election as soon as possible and people can decide if they can reconcile themselves to that winning position and join in or find someone else to stand for.
You do know that it only requires 325 votes to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act, right?
It doesn't even need repeal, just a one line Bill to amend clause 1(2) would be enough to have an early election.
TBH, whatever the cause - I don't think we should have a new PM without a new election.
I still can't take ORB remotely seriously. 3% DK. Yeah, right.
The most blatantly one-eyed poster trashes a poll with Remain ahead. Colour me surprised.
We are all partisan but the hypocrisy of some people really is shameless.
The polls are certainly all over the place but the trend is all in the same direction and as this very poster used to lecture us several weeks ago, it is the trend that matters (Although of course that what matter now the trend is the other way)
Perhaps the kids have finally got round to phoning their grandparents!
Ridiculous, unless Remain get over 60% then many bitter Leave voting Tories will switch to UKIP, the Tory civil war has barely begun. Cameron may have the centre but will be assailed on the left by Corbyn and the right by UKIP
That will result in the return of a further majority Conservative government.
Jezza losing voters to the centre and UKIP. The latter piling up votes for a handful of seats and PM Theresa May in Downing Street until 2025.
Rinse and repeat until Labour come to their senses, UKIP ditch Farage and the SNP implode.
Exactly ....
You are currently betting the Jacobite estate on Jezza.
You will be pie meat if Jezza steps down and lets someone else run.
Labour members are Mr W's safety net. No-one is going to lose money backing their stupidity.
Pensioners, previously considered to be the most reliable Brexit supporters, now narrowly favoured staying in the union the survey found, with 52 percent of the over-65s intending to vote to "Remain" and 44 percent backing "Leave".
In March it was 34% backing Remain and 62% backing Leave.
If true, that's an 18% swing inside less than two months.
I'm prepared to believe there has been a swing to Remain, but one that heavy and fast amongst the over 65s (who are normally very consistent and less prone to Fear) seems unlikely.
It's the consistent c3% DK that bothers me. What are ORB's reseachers doing to get here? If they're forcing a choice, how can there be any DKs?
But I don't think they are forcing a choice - they're just showing the people certain to vote. I suspect I'm an example of the 3% - I'm definitely going to vote (10/10) but not sure which way yet.... There are (perhaps surprisingly) a few of us genuine D/Ks around!
That's a tough one, If I'd known how Cameron's "renegotiation" was going to turn out I certainly wouldn't have voted for him...
Would I have voted for Miliband or just done what I did in 2001 and sit it out. I'm not sure?
If you had ended up with Miliband, there would have been no negotiation and no referendum
That's what you want, right?
oh, wait...
Actually, yes, the status quo (i.e. no referendum) under Miliband would have been better than what's going to happen now that Cameron has won the referendum...
What's coming will be far more "integration" then we'd have had to put up had we not had this referendum. Think about it. We're about to be locked in to the EU, irrevocably and forever... What can we now do when the EU comes calling for this or that?
A President. An army. The single currency. It's all coming in the next few years on this back of this referendum. Would have been far, far better for Miliband to have won the 2015 election and the whole thing would have essentially been parked for five years.
If the Lords were to resist an early election demanded by the Commons it would get flooded, and deservedly so.
Are you aware of how appointments to the Lords works?
The Lord's can delay legislation for one year only. If the FTPA should be repealed as a matter of principle does it matter much whether the Lord's are uncooperative or not? I do not take seriously the prospect of a general election as a direct consequence of the referendum. What politician in his right mind would want it?
I still can't take ORB remotely seriously. 3% DK. Yeah, right.
The most blatantly one-eyed poster trashes a poll with Remain ahead. Colour me surprised.
We are all partisan but the hypocrisy of some people really is shameless.
The polls are certainly all over the place but the trend is all in the same direction and as this very poster used to lecture us several weeks ago, it is the trend that matters (Although of course that what matter now the trend is the other way)
Perhaps the kids have finally got round to phoning their grandparents!
I do wonder why you read my posts at all. Given I used to vote Labour - and even once LD, I find your analysis rather lacking.
Pensioners, previously considered to be the most reliable Brexit supporters, now narrowly favoured staying in the union the survey found, with 52 percent of the over-65s intending to vote to "Remain" and 44 percent backing "Leave".
In March it was 34% backing Remain and 62% backing Leave.
If true, that's an 18% swing inside less than two months.
I'm prepared to believe there has been a swing to Remain, but one that heavy and fast amongst the over 65s (who are normally very consistent and less prone to Fear) seems unlikely.
Remember, it's just a sub-sample.
Yougov had Leave 35 clear among pensioners on their phone sample. Comres 10.
The net polls, including the usually reliable Opinium, have the lead at over 20.
ORB's last internet panel had the lead at over 20 as well.
Ridiculous, unless Remain get over 60% then many bitter Leave voting Tories will switch to UKIP, the Tory civil war has barely begun. Cameron may have the centre but will be assailed on the left by Corbyn and the right by UKIP
That will result in the return of a further majority Conservative government.
Jezza losing voters to the centre and UKIP. The latter piling up votes for a handful of seats and PM Theresa May in Downing Street until 2025.
Rinse and repeat until Labour come to their senses, UKIP ditch Farage and the SNP implode.
Exactly ....
You are currently betting the Jacobite estate on Jezza.
You will be pie meat if Jezza steps down and lets someone else run.
Labour members are Mr W's safety net. No-one is going to lose money backing their stupidity.
I'm still waiting to see if Jezza is quite as remote from real life as tories hope he is. He may just have the sense to step down and make 2020 a contested election.
Sheesh Remainers get good poll news and spend the morning getting grumpy.
Laughing at idiots is not 'grumpy' - it's just laughing at idiots.
Hmm
sour winners don't make good reading.
Look on the bright side the papers are all about deep Tory splits.
Daves on track to win a referendum and lose his party.
hyperbole.. and so early in the morning!
Merely reporting what the UK press is saying.
If you think there's no risk of Conservative rifts getting deeper then good luck with that.
the press reports in its own prejudiced way.. You just shouldn't read the Daily Mail.
Actually just tracking the Tory feud across PB is interesting enough.
Tories on this site have become increasingly shrill in their abuse towards each other.
Based on some of the positions taken to date I increasingly wonder how they can all stay in the same party.
They probably will because the alternatives are too unpalatable. That doesn't mean that they can work together.
If Leave lose, by whatever margin, I'm expecting the headbanger Leavers to have a complete and extended meltdown lasting years. We've already seen them oppose the budget and amend the Queen's Speech. That's only the start.
Frankly, I couldn't give a monkeys what happens save for the fact that a Corbyn led or any left wing nutcase Govt would do for this country, The Tories really are the only option at the moment, however many loonies there are within its ranks.
This EU boil had to be lanced ,. and it is being despite the pain it will cause.
The subject isn't going away if Remain wins, no matter what the margin of victory.
If Leave loses, no matter how crushingly, its supporters will not take time to reflect on whether the public was right or whether the Leave message was unconvincing. They will simply conclude that the public got it wrong and look to overturn the democratic decision at the earliest possible opportunity.
Their interest in the democratic process has always been contingent on them actually winning.
I'm not sure why you think "looking to overturn the democratic decision at the earliest possible opportunity" is a bad thing.
To me that's just "participating in the democratic process". Or do you think we should have Elected Dictators For Life?
I thought PB's official position was that only arose if TSE was elected to the position.
I have a middle class Labour voting friend, he is obsessed in drawing dividing lines between himself and the WWC. Single child sent to public school, objected to Tesco opening a store in Moseley (!) because rif raf. Voting for the EU is looking good to him now, he takes the moral high ground and the WWC is pushed out of homes they have had for generations. Voting Labour when Blair was in charge was quite safe for him as Blair was on side of the middle class.
But it is not looking so bad for me either - I can vote for this:
" The Deputy Prime Minister said he was confident that the Conservatives would agree to Liberal Democrat demands to increase the tax take from "the top 10 per cent". It suggests that anyone earning more than £50,500 will be targeted with higher "wealth" taxes.
Mr Clegg indicated yesterday that the rules on stamp duty, capital gains tax and other levies may be tightened. The Liberal Democrats also claim there is growing Conservative support for a mansion tax on multi–million pound homes.
The Deputy Prime Minister's warning that 10 per cent of taxpayers will be targeted will lead to speculation that tax relief on pensions may be curtailed for higher rate taxpayers, a Liberal Democrat manifesto commitment. "
That's just the Liberal manifesto for 2015, I wonder what the Labour government of 2020 is going to do?
Pensioners, previously considered to be the most reliable Brexit supporters, now narrowly favoured staying in the union the survey found, with 52 percent of the over-65s intending to vote to "Remain" and 44 percent backing "Leave".
In March it was 34% backing Remain and 62% backing Leave.
If true, that's an 18% swing inside less than two months.
I'm prepared to believe there has been a swing to Remain, but one that heavy and fast amongst the over 65s (who are normally very consistent and less prone to Fear) seems unlikely.
It's the consistent c3% DK that bothers me. What are ORB's reseachers doing to get here? If they're forcing a choice, how can there be any DKs?
But I don't think they are forcing a choice - they're just showing the people certain to vote. I suspect I'm an example of the 3% - I'm definitely going to vote (10/10) but not sure which way yet.... There are (perhaps surprisingly) a few of us genuine D/Ks around!
Well if you are looking for unsolicited and highly partial advice you have come to the right place.
I'm still waiting to see if Jezza is quite as remote from real life as tories hope he is. He may just have the sense to step down and make 2020 a contested election.
On current evidence he is even more remote.
He may well step down, but only if he has suitably extreme placemen in all the relevant positions of power throughout the party, and his successor is as committed as he is to electoral suicide.
Amid all the breathless excitement about this telephone poll of I believe all of 800 people I cant see it mentioned that Remains lead is actually down on the previous poll by the same lot a week ago despite their finding of a Blue Rinse for Leave coven.
I think you are imagining the "breathless excitement" to be honest.
Majority of posters on here treat the polls with some scepticism. Having said that all the recent ones have been more encouraging for Remain than Leave,
With the last 2 online polls showing Remain 4% ahead the next few online will be very interesting.
Sheesh Remainers get good poll news and spend the morning getting grumpy.
Laughing at idiots is not 'grumpy' - it's just laughing at idiots.
Hmm
sour winners don't make good reading.
Look on the bright side the papers are all about deep Tory splits.
Daves on track to win a referendum and lose his party.
hyperbole.. and so early in the morning!
Merely reporting what the UK press is saying.
If you think there's no risk of Conservative rifts getting deeper then good luck with that.
the press reports in its own prejudiced way.. You just shouldn't read the Daily Mail.
Actually just tracking the Tory feud across PB is interesting enough.
Tories on this site have become increasingly shrill in their abuse towards each other.
Based on some of the positions taken to date I increasingly wonder how they can all stay in the same party.
That's the impression I get. I don't post very often, but still pop in most days to have a lurk, and the Tory split on here is visceral. I know PB isn't like real life, but if the atmosphere here is indicative of the feeling in the Tory party, there's no way they can just kiss and make up after June 23rd.
Handbags being swung every which way , it is a hoot.
They should really take a lesson from the SNP and focus on sex and money rather than all this splitting nonsense.
Trust the Tartan Tories to take over the mantle of Tory scandal!
Still haven't quite worked out why Hosie resigning from his party position is 'the right thing', while not resigning from Westminster is because 'we've moved on'.....But then Nicola's going to have to get increasingly adept at managing contradictions.....
'Second or third parties have no right to dictate to the government' (unless its at Westminster) 'Scare stories put voters off' (unless its in the cause of independence from Brussels Westminster, in which case VOTE FOR INDEPENDENCE TO SAVE THE NHS!!!)
Ridiculous, unless Remain get over 60% then many bitter Leave voting Tories will switch to UKIP, the Tory civil war has barely begun. Cameron may have the centre but will be assailed on the left by Corbyn and the right by UKIP
That will result in the return of a further majority Conservative government.
Jezza losing voters to the centre and UKIP. The latter piling up votes for a handful of seats and PM Theresa May in Downing Street until 2025.
Rinse and repeat until Labour come to their senses, UKIP ditch Farage and the SNP implode.
Exactly ....
No it will result in a hung parliament, Corbyn will not gain votes but he will not lose many either, the losses will be Tory to UKIP. The Tories will likely be largest party but without a majority
Comments
Ignorant enough to abuse mental health AND think it's a proper word? We can define you as a word that is in the dictionary - a Wazzock. "A stupid or annoying person". (http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/wazzock)
44 minutes 44 seconds
The status quo position of half-in is unsustainable. Therefore in the event of a Remain victory the government should in accordance with its mandate negotiate terms to be properly in, including joining both the euro and Schengen. And then it should, for the first time ever, be honest with the British people and say "this is what EU membership is about and always always had been: so are you in or out?"
And then at least if we're in, we're in - with eyes open and not resented by the federalists for bucking their project. And who knows? We might actually get taken seriously for once.
Quashing with menaces the decisions of elected parliaments has been routinely handwaved away by some Remainers here. Well now we know that isn't some what-if, Poland is getting a dose of it right now.
I hope they give the EC two fingers. Hungary are in a similar state of contrariness. And I'm not surprised.
In March it was 34% backing Remain and 62% backing Leave.
If true, that's an 18% swing inside less than two months.
I'm prepared to believe there has been a swing to Remain, but one that heavy and fast amongst the over 65s (who are normally very consistent and less prone to Fear) seems unlikely.
But what about the LDs? Have they a purpose anymore? The young and naïve now favour the Greens (living on vegetation and shivering in the unheated grass huts is a dream come true). The Labour party is now for the middle-class, metropolitan pretentious, and hoping that the WWC continue to vote for them out of habit. The Tories are whatever you want them to be.
All that remains for Tim and his boys is the protest vote, but being clued to the bum of the EU reeks of the Establishment. Meaning well is no longer enough.
Why would anyone vote for them rather than abstaining? The only reason can be to stop the worst of the rest gaining power.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/75335/leaveeu-publishes-private-numbers-douglas-carswell
or something
If he tried it, he'd be out of office within weeks.
I wouldn't count on it......
Oh, the great 'Cameron will be gone within a week' stories on PB.com down the years...
Rode a horse...
Shopped at Morrisons
Cried at a funeral (that was the other bloke - ed.)
So we should add '(serial) losers take revenge on winner' to the list?
eg, someone's looking to back £85,000 @ 4.3
There also isn't a huge amount of cash holding down Hillary's price.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419
Away with the trappings of yesterday, the EU is girding its loins for a new future.
Meanwhile next leader has to pick up the mess.
Then keep a strong, campaigning cross-party organisation in force and go in heavy in the media on every EU move that's anti-democratic, federalising or amounts to scope-creep judicial activism.
Which will happen.
:-)
Jezza losing voters to the centre and UKIP. The latter piling up votes for a handful of seats and PM Theresa May in Downing Street until 2025.
Rinse and repeat until Labour come to their senses, UKIP ditch Farage and the SNP implode.
Exactly ....
Personally, I veer towards the phone polls but is this also just confirmation bias? They did better at 2015GE, when the online polls became frozen while the phone ones continued to swing towards Con, albeit not enough to report the true picture.
- Labour party members
- Tory party members
- Employees at any large media group
And if they're saying that the general public polled by this company are more informed/care more/are more politically motivated than any of the above, it is very hard to take seriously.
On another point, I disagree with most on here - the meme that Leave need to counter is not the economy, that is not going to secure a win for Remain. 'Stay in for your grand children/children' really might. That needs to be countered immediately - if anything the longer term future is much more emotionally significant than a possible few quarters of -0.1 growth. Running Dan Hannan's piece to camera on newsnight last night as a PBB a few weeks out might just do it - the future of an independent Britain would be stronger for our future generations than tying ourselves to a stagnant, protectionist and fundamentally flawed EU.
To me that's just "participating in the democratic process". Or do you think we should have Elected Dictators For Life?
You will be pie meat if Jezza steps down and lets someone else run.
It elides "leftie" and "retard" to suggest an unthinking left-winger
Whatever next. An ad man for PM ?
But lefties and PMs generally prefer loony and fruitcake.
Clearly no sign of denigrating mental health there.
Well worth pushing more here. Gisela is handling questions today for Leave - didn't catch who was doing Remain.
If Lies and Fear win this referendum, it will be sad day for Britain and democracy.
'Notice how Dave won a majority when Steve Hilton no longer advised him'
Personally I’m a Leftie who likes fruitcake, but there you go!
Even I'd vote McDonnell ! :-)
Colour me surprised.
We are all partisan but the hypocrisy of some people really is shameless.
The polls are certainly all over the place but the trend is all in the same direction and as this very poster used to lecture us several weeks ago, it is the trend that matters (Although of course that what matter now the trend is the other way)
Perhaps the kids have finally got round to phoning their grandparents!
Much more important than the EU
What's coming will be far more "integration" then we'd have had to put up had we not had this referendum. Think about it. We're about to be locked in to the EU, irrevocably and forever... What can we now do when the EU comes calling for this or that?
A President. An army. The single currency. It's all coming in the next few years on this back of this referendum. Would have been far, far better for Miliband to have won the 2015 election and the whole thing would have essentially been parked for five years.
Yougov had Leave 35 clear among pensioners on their phone sample. Comres 10.
The net polls, including the usually reliable Opinium, have the lead at over 20.
ORB's last internet panel had the lead at over 20 as well.
333 seconds
But it is not looking so bad for me either - I can vote for this:
" The Deputy Prime Minister said he was confident that the Conservatives would agree to Liberal Democrat demands to increase the tax take from "the top 10 per cent". It suggests that anyone earning more than £50,500 will be targeted with higher "wealth" taxes.
Mr Clegg indicated yesterday that the rules on stamp duty, capital gains tax and other levies may be tightened. The Liberal Democrats also claim there is growing Conservative support for a mansion tax on multi–million pound homes.
The Deputy Prime Minister's warning that 10 per cent of taxpayers will be targeted will lead to speculation that tax relief on pensions may be curtailed for higher rate taxpayers, a Liberal Democrat manifesto commitment. "
That's just the Liberal manifesto for 2015, I wonder what the Labour government of 2020 is going to do?
He may well step down, but only if he has suitably extreme placemen in all the relevant positions of power throughout the party, and his successor is as committed as he is to electoral suicide.
I have no idea if that is what happened, though. The English language is often illogical.
I think you are imagining the "breathless excitement" to be honest.
Majority of posters on here treat the polls with some scepticism. Having said that all the recent ones have been more encouraging for Remain than Leave,
With the last 2 online polls showing Remain 4% ahead the next few online will be very interesting.
As a Remainer I am still concerned about turnout.
Still haven't quite worked out why Hosie resigning from his party position is 'the right thing', while not resigning from Westminster is because 'we've moved on'.....But then Nicola's going to have to get increasingly adept at managing contradictions.....
'Second or third parties have no right to dictate to the government' (unless its at Westminster)
'Scare stories put voters off' (unless its in the cause of independence from Brussels Westminster, in which case VOTE FOR INDEPENDENCE TO SAVE THE NHS!!!)
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection :
Should The United Kingdom Remain A Member Of The European Union Or Leave The European Union?
Remain 57% (+1) .. Leave 43% (-1)
Turnout Projection 65% (NC)
Changes from 20th May.
......................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE4EU - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors For European Union