I've long said that the Conservatives will be the first UK party to elect a black leader and the first to elect an openly non-straight leader, as well as all the historic firsts already chalked up.
That said, I'm not sure how the practicalities of an MSP becoming Tory leader work. I can't remember offhand whether leadership nominees have to be MPs. If so, that would severely limit her chances this side of 2020.
I think in the more devolved UK system that we are developing it would be great if we could have a Tory leader who was an MSP (or even and AM) but how the practicalities of that would work are beyond me.
I agree. really, it's the party structures that are behind the times and excessively focussed on Westminster - and, for that matter, the Commons, though Pearson led UKIP from the Lords briefly. In fact, the minor parties don't have the Commons obsession with the Greens and UKIP both managing well enough with leaders outside Westminster despite having MPs and peers. It would be a bit different for government-forming parties - the PM is still the first politician of the UK and it's difficult for someone to hold that position without simultaneously being party leader other than in exceptional circumstances. All the same, federal countries like Germany regularly nominate successful First Ministers or regional leaders as chancellor-candidates and seem to manage.
@rowenamason: Cameron says there's "uncertainty" over whether EU citizens in UK + UK citizens in EU have right to stay where they are in event of Brexit
That does raise the interesting question of whether the Remain campaign have made inroads into getting ex-pats to register and vote. Does anyone know?
In fact the govt has disenfranchised expats of 15 or more years.
Sheesh Remainers get good poll news and spend the morning getting grumpy.
Laughing at idiots is not 'grumpy' - it's just laughing at idiots.
Hmm
sour winners don't make good reading.
Look on the bright side the papers are all about deep Tory splits.
Daves on track to win a referendum and lose his party.
hyperbole.. and so early in the morning!
Merely reporting what the UK press is saying.
If you think there's no risk of Conservative rifts getting deeper then good luck with that.
the press reports in its own prejudiced way.. You just shouldn't read the Daily Mail.
Actually just tracking the Tory feud across PB is interesting enough.
Tories on this site have become increasingly shrill in their abuse towards each other.
Based on some of the positions taken to date I increasingly wonder how they can all stay in the same party.
That's the impression I get. I don't post very often, but still pop in most days to have a lurk, and the Tory split on here is visceral. I know PB isn't like real life, but if the atmosphere here is indicative of the feeling in the Tory party, there's no way they can just kiss and make up after June 23rd.
Handbags being swung every which way , it is a hoot.
They should really take a lesson from the SNP and focus on sex and money rather than all this splitting nonsense.
Shows how clever SNP are David, they focus on things that matter rather than just fighting each other like baldy men over a comb
As the final nail in the coffin of his reputation I am fully expecting Cameron to be awarded the Charlemagne Prize for his contribution to European Unity at some point in the near future.
Sheesh Remainers get good poll news and spend the morning getting grumpy.
Laughing at idiots is not 'grumpy' - it's just laughing at idiots.
Hmm
sour winners don't make good reading.
Look on the bright side the papers are all about deep Tory splits.
Daves on track to win a referendum and lose his party.
hyperbole.. and so early in the morning!
Merely reporting what the UK press is saying.
If you think there's no risk of Conservative rifts getting deeper then good luck with that.
the press reports in its own prejudiced way.. You just shouldn't read the Daily Mail.
Actually just tracking the Tory feud across PB is interesting enough.
Tories on this site have become increasingly shrill in their abuse towards each other.
Based on some of the positions taken to date I increasingly wonder how they can all stay in the same party.
That's the impression I get. I don't post very often, but still pop in most days to have a lurk, and the Tory split on here is visceral. I know PB isn't like real life, but if the atmosphere here is indicative of the feeling in the Tory party, there's no way they can just kiss and make up after June 23rd.
Handbags being swung every which way , it is a hoot.
They should really take a lesson from the SNP and focus on sex and money rather than all this splitting nonsense.
Trust the Tartan Tories to take over the mantle of Tory scandal!
Still haven't quite worked out why Hosie resigning from his party position is 'the right thing', while not resigning from Westminster is because 'we've moved on'.....But then Nicola's going to have to get increasingly adept at managing contradictions.....
'Second or third parties have no right to dictate to the government' (unless its at Westminster) 'Scare stories put voters off' (unless its in the cause of independence from Brussels Westminster, in which case VOTE FOR INDEPENDENCE TO SAVE THE NHS!!!)
Well if having a silly affair was a basis for resigning from Parliament we might be checking rules on quorum. But betraying one of Nicola's best buds means no party position.
Carlotta cannot see past her red mist of hatred towards Scotland and SNP to be objective about anything.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
This thread reminds me of many in 2012 and 2013 where it was argued that a tory majority was not just unlikely it was impossible. The polls showed are just too many lib dem switchers, labour will just do too well in the marginals.
Indeed anybody who suggested the polls might be wrong was subject to insults and scorn, and it got to the point where those of us who had a hunch the polls were garbage were afraid to post because, well, life's too short.
It really feels like that today.
Of course, many of those doing the insulting and scorning today were those betting on the lib dem switchers in 2013. That turned out to be a catastrophic strategy.
Actually, the polls were right at the time, as local- and by-election tended to confirm. The problem - that some of us identified at the time - was whether Labour could hold on to the switchers come a general election. People who supported a party with seemingly little chance of government are often reluctant to then back one that does, particularly if it looks a bit naff.
The difference between then and now is that there's only a month left to the referendum vote whereas there was half a parliament left back in 2012/3.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
If people could back Leave into 3.25 that'd be great. Thx.
Carlotta cannot see past her red mist of hatred towards Scotland and SNP to be objective about anything.
Tourette's Turnip persists in seeing the SNP and Scotland as one and the same....yet insists he's not an SNP supporter.....
...in fairness, Tourette's Turnip is consistent in wanting FREEDOM from both Westminster & Brussels, something that 'contradiction, I see no contradiction!' Nicola is not....
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
@rowenamason: Cameron says there's "uncertainty" over whether EU citizens in UK + UK citizens in EU have right to stay where they are in event of Brexit
That does raise the interesting question of whether the Remain campaign have made inroads into getting ex-pats to register and vote. Does anyone know?
In fact the govt has disenfranchised expats of 15 or more years.
I've been constantly seeing adverts on my Facebook etc informing me about registering to vote (as an expat/overseas voter). It seems quite well organised. I imagine for a vote like this we will see much higher expat voter turnout than we see for general elections.
No haggling, no negotiating for full tank of petrol, just rolls up and pays the asking price.
What is that story really about? Why has our millionaire PM bought a cheap second hand Micra?
Expects to be out of a job pdq, or trying to be a normal, kind of guy, a Blair mark ii, without negotiating skills.
Yeah but surely it fails the spin test: the Micra is not made in Britain or even Europe (Nissan makes other models at Sunderland); his daughter is not old enough to drive. Sam Cam is old enough to look after her own transport. Oh yeah, and he is a mate of Jeremy Clarkson who knows about cars.
Would you really choose the defacto end of nation-state parliamentary democracy because you are worried about one year long recession? That is huge short termism in my opinion and is regrettable.
And people wonder why Brexiteers get labelled extreme...
"the defacto end of nation-state parliamentary democracy" is not on the ballot paper, and if a year long recession meant I might lose my job or home (which is what the article is about) then yes, I would have pause for thought.
Exactly it's not effect on lots of peoples livelihoods that is alarming.
The
The .
Lol. So
Yes,
This Etc. It's ridiculous.
Of course you won't take responsibility for up and down the UK. The people who craved drugs did that.
IF YOU EVER HAD A DRINK YOU CAUSED ALCOHOLISM IN NEWCASTLE
I'm afraid
OK. I'll come quietly. It's my fault. EVERYTHING. I am responsible for EVERYTHING. I can only apologise. I will do penance by paying more personal taxes than anyone else on this site. Oh, wait, I quite possibly do.
You're still a traitor. Etc.
Yes, you have directly contributed to the ruination of working class communities where drug of recent years are part of the atonement process, but I reckon you could and should do more.
OK, yes, you're quite right. Yes. Ahem. And I thought I was the only one having a *bit of an episode*
And also, I like your idea. Thing is, the two places I did the vast bulk of my heroin scoring were (and this is true)... Holland Park and Islington. Yes. Holland Park and Islington. if I am to be blamed for the "ruination" of Tottenham (where I scored just a few times) I must surely be responsible for the dereliction of Holland Park and Islington, and their rapid decline into abject despair from the late 1980s onwards.
I hereby offer to share some of the financial burden of the locals, their property price problems, and so forth.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November in a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November is a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
The Democrats are split whilst the GOP is unifying. There will be a shift back to the Dems once Sanders is out the way, the question is whether the damage is already done.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
Rod, how would you value trump?
What odds would you lay him at?
I'm not sure I would lay him at all. I've backed him from 6.6 all the way down to 3.9.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November is a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
The Democrats are split whilst the GOP is unifying. There will be a shift back to the Dems once Sanders is out the way, the question is whether the damage is already done.
It's more fundamental than that. This is not someone equipped to fight back against what's about to hit her.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November is a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
FWIW, I posted this yesterday ...
Greetings from Washington DC. Just had lunch at the Capitol Hill Club, the place in town where t Republicans congregate. A few snippets to report: 1. The feeling is that Trump has a real chance of winning in November, thanks to HC's unpopularity and his amazingly teflon qualities. 2. A real spanner in the works, though, could be the emergence of stories about mob links. You can't do big builds in New York without having to deal with the mafia, apparently. 3. If he does win he is going to have trouble bringing in A list Republicans to serve in his administration. He's just too unpredictable. 4. He may not actually be a Republican! 5. The Senate looks like it may flip to the Democrats in November, before flipping back to the GOP in 2018.
Make of this what you will. No huge surprises, but 2 and 4 may explain a lot about why Trump is so worrisome for the GOP establishment.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November is a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
FWIW, I posted this yesterday ...
Greetings from Washington DC. Just had lunch at the Capitol Hill Club, the place in town where t Republicans congregate. A few snippets to report: 1. The feeling is that Trump has a real chance of winning in November, thanks to HC's unpopularity and his amazingly teflon qualities. 2. A real spanner in the works, though, could be the emergence of stories about mob links. You can't do big builds in New York without having to deal with the mafia, apparently. 3. If he does win he is going to have trouble bringing in A list Republicans to serve in his administration. He's just too unpredictable. 4. He may not actually be a Republican! 5. The Senate looks like it may flip to the Democrats in November, before flipping back to the GOP in 2018.
Make of this what you will. No huge surprises, but 2 and 4 may explain a lot about why Trump is so worrisome for the GOP establishment.
Any rumours of a Veep?
If Trump picks a young, likeable, successful woman it's over for Clinton.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
Rod, how would you value trump?
What odds would you lay him at?
I'm not sure I would lay him at all. I've backed him from 6.6 all the way down to 3.9.
Presume you wouldn't lay him at 1.15? There must be a par band for you somewhere?
I still think that he has more negatives than Hillary and that as such, she ought to be favourite (Bill was a womaniser? tell us something we don't know). But it's a lot closer than the odds make out, even now.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November in a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
Perhaps that is what is moving the betting.
Perhaps people linked to Bill are about to come forward with claims.
No haggling, no negotiating for full tank of petrol, just rolls up and pays the asking price.
What is that story really about? Why has our millionaire PM bought a cheap second hand Micra?
Expects to be out of a job pdq, or trying to be a normal, kind of guy, a Blair mark ii, without negotiating skills.
Yeah but surely it fails the spin test: the Micra is not made in Britain or even Europe (Nissan makes other models at Sunderland); his daughter is not old enough to drive. Sam Cam is old enough to look after her own transport. Oh yeah, and he is a mate of Jeremy Clarkson who knows about cars.
The Micra is a damn good car though. I bought one for my wife and she drove it for 12 years without a moment's trouble and it sailed through the MoT every year a cracking little motor - till some pillock drove into the back of it and the insurance company wrote off as being beyond economical repair. On the choice I don't think Cameron can be faulted, so he is capable of sound judgement in his private life, when his money is at stake.
@rowenamason: Cameron says there's "uncertainty" over whether EU citizens in UK + UK citizens in EU have right to stay where they are in event of Brexit
That does raise the interesting question of whether the Remain campaign have made inroads into getting ex-pats to register and vote. Does anyone know?
A lot of advertising here in Spain about the uncertainty posed by 'Leave' and the need to register. Everyone I know has their postal vote organised - and friends and family back in the UK fully primed of the potential dangers to their cheap breaks in the sun.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November in a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
Perhaps that is what is moving the betting.
Perhaps people linked to Bill are about to come forward with claims.
Cuts both ways. Trump and tax and 'irregular' arrangements for building contracts?
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November is a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
The Democrats are split whilst the GOP is unifying. There will be a shift back to the Dems once Sanders is out the way, the question is whether the damage is already done.
It's more fundamental than that. This is not someone equipped to fight back against what's about to hit her.
I don't think it is any more fundamental. I understand the weaknesses of HRC, and there are plenty on Trump's side as well. Some Republican financers will likely stay out of the GOP race, as well.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
Rod, how would you value trump?
What odds would you lay him at?
I'm not sure I would lay him at all. I've backed him from 6.6 all the way down to 3.9.
Presume you wouldn't lay him at 1.15? There must be a par band for you somewhere?
I still think that he has more negatives than Hillary and that as such, she ought to be favourite (Bill was a womaniser? tell us something we don't know). But it's a lot closer than the odds make out, even now.
I might lay off a little, obviously, to get all green, but I'm a long way from that at the moment.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November in a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
Perhaps that is what is moving the betting.
Perhaps people linked to Bill are about to come forward with claims.
It's certainly looking like the dirtiest campaign we have seen for a long time. I doubt policy will be mentioned much.
As the final nail in the coffin of his reputation I am fully expecting Cameron to be awarded the Charlemagne Prize for his contribution to European Unity at some point in the near future.
Looking at the list of past winners that seems pretty much nailed-on.
Entertaining list and good material for trivia questions. What have the Pope, the Euro and General Marshall got in common?
Also interesting that Heath won in 1963. A consolation prize?
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November is a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
FWIW, I posted this yesterday ...
Greetings from Washington DC. Just had lunch at the Capitol Hill Club, the place in town where t Republicans congregate. A few snippets to report: 1. The feeling is that Trump has a real chance of winning in November, thanks to HC's unpopularity and his amazingly teflon qualities. 2. A real spanner in the works, though, could be the emergence of stories about mob links. You can't do big builds in New York without having to deal with the mafia, apparently. 3. If he does win he is going to have trouble bringing in A list Republicans to serve in his administration. He's just too unpredictable. 4. He may not actually be a Republican! 5. The Senate looks like it may flip to the Democrats in November, before flipping back to the GOP in 2018.
Make of this what you will. No huge surprises, but 2 and 4 may explain a lot about why Trump is so worrisome for the GOP establishment.
Any rumours of a Veep?
If Trump picks a young, likeable, successful woman it's over for Clinton.
I doubt Trump believes such a creature can actually exist.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November is a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
FWIW, I posted this yesterday ...
Greetings from Washington DC. Just had lunch at the Capitol Hill Club, the place in town where t Republicans congregate. A few snippets to report: 1. The feeling is that Trump has a real chance of winning in November, thanks to HC's unpopularity and his amazingly teflon qualities. 2. A real spanner in the works, though, could be the emergence of stories about mob links. You can't do big builds in New York without having to deal with the mafia, apparently. 3. If he does win he is going to have trouble bringing in A list Republicans to serve in his administration. He's just too unpredictable. 4. He may not actually be a Republican! 5. The Senate looks like it may flip to the Democrats in November, before flipping back to the GOP in 2018.
Make of this what you will. No huge surprises, but 2 and 4 may explain a lot about why Trump is so worrisome for the GOP establishment.
Any rumours of a Veep?
If Trump picks a young, likeable, successful woman it's over for Clinton.
The Capitol Hill Club is very much GOP establishment territory. It's pretty clear there is very little interaction between its members and Trump, so no VP rumours. It did briefly crop up as a subject - but everyone just shrugged their shoulders.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November is a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
FWIW, I posted this yesterday ...
Greetings from Washington DC. Just had lunch at the Capitol Hill Club, the place in town where t Republicans congregate. A few snippets to report: 1. The feeling is that Trump has a real chance of winning in November, thanks to HC's unpopularity and his amazingly teflon qualities. 2. A real spanner in the works, though, could be the emergence of stories about mob links. You can't do big builds in New York without having to deal with the mafia, apparently. 3. If he does win he is going to have trouble bringing in A list Republicans to serve in his administration. He's just too unpredictable. 4. He may not actually be a Republican! 5. The Senate looks like it may flip to the Democrats in November, before flipping back to the GOP in 2018.
Make of this what you will. No huge surprises, but 2 and 4 may explain a lot about why Trump is so worrisome for the GOP establishment.
Any rumours of a Veep?
If Trump picks a young, likeable, successful woman it's over for Clinton.
I doubt Trump believes such a creature can actually exist.
The old white man Newt Gingrich leads the betting by a country mile.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November is a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
FWIW, I posted this yesterday ...
Greetings from Washington DC. Just had lunch at the Capitol Hill Club, the place in town where t Republicans congregate. A few snippets to report: 1. The feeling is that Trump has a real chance of winning in November, thanks to HC's unpopularity and his amazingly teflon qualities. 2. A real spanner in the works, though, could be the emergence of stories about mob links. You can't do big builds in New York without having to deal with the mafia, apparently. 3. If he does win he is going to have trouble bringing in A list Republicans to serve in his administration. He's just too unpredictable. 4. He may not actually be a Republican! 5. The Senate looks like it may flip to the Democrats in November, before flipping back to the GOP in 2018.
Make of this what you will. No huge surprises, but 2 and 4 may explain a lot about why Trump is so worrisome for the GOP establishment.
Any rumours of a Veep?
If Trump picks a young, likeable, successful woman it's over for Clinton.
I doubt Trump believes such a creature can actually exist.
The old white man Newt Gingrich leads the betting by a country mile.
Trump would be an idiot to go for that choice, in my view, and he ain't no idiot.
Good morning all. A set of really interesting discussions. I am an ardent Leave supporter but if the UK votes to Remain my position would likely be as follows:
1) I would accept the result of the referendum completely. I am incredibly grateful to the Prime Minister for offering the referendum and if Remain wins, Leave have lost the argument plain and simple. That is not to say the argument was wrong of course.
2) I would expect the Prime Minister's negotiated deal to be implemented in full and protected vigorously by the British government. I would also expect the UK government to work to ensure the deal is implemented as effectively as possible to protect UK interest i.e. there are some questions/concerns over whether the PM's deal helps/hinders UK protection of the city and this needs clarification/refining.
3) As a Leave supporter I would revert to seeking reform within the EU. The British public will have voted to maintain membership of the EU, but that doesn't stop me from thinking the EU doesn't work effectively or that the EU will continue to seek ever closer union which impacts on the UK. More specifically I would seek the development of a flexible, multi-track EU and hope a British government will utilise any treaty changes in the future to push this. Therefore there would be a need to develop detailed workings of how this could be achieved for a UK government to implement and lobbying of that government. More specifically in the shorter term I would focus on key areas for a 'win' - e.g. a need to work on the influence of the ECJ (see Jesse Norman's great article here on Conservativehome) and I would also like to see more focus on developing a transition model for the UK, e.g. what would EEA membership be like and how could it be enacted?
4) I would hope the British government will work to make the UK less dependent on the EU. This is not specifically anti-EU, but merely acceptance that the UK shouldn't be overly dependent on any external body or third-party country.
In terms of the politics of the situation, I remain strongly of the view that a Conservative government is the current best way to attain a generally EU-sceptic worldview from the British government. I say 'attain' deliberately, as UKIP in its current form could not achieve this as they wouldn't win enough public support, whilst their approach to the EU tends to be more about complaining than offering workable options. Indeed my current view as an EU-sceptic would certainly not be to walk into the arms of UKIP post-Remain vote. I don't share many values with UKIP (the EU is not the only policy area of interest!) and I certainly don't share their vision of the EU, nor do I believe they could ever get us in to a situation where we can change our relationship with the EU. As such I would likely campaign to defeat UKIP where possible, even with a Remain vote. I also wouldn't expect a Labour or Lib Dem government to be as EU-sceptic as the Conservatives.
In round 1, the Remain Boxer has come in a frenzy and thrown punch after punch. The Leave boxer has had to defend and has wobbled but there has not been a knock out blow (if we say the polls are 55-45)
Round 2 is about to start. What will happen next? Maybe the remain boxer will keep going and the leave boxer will be knocked out or maybe remain will tire while leave finally starts to attack.
The hope for leave is that remain has used up most of its ammunition - no more govt reports with purdah starting; the world leaders and organisations have had their say.
Leave needs to take the chance to get on the front foot. Immigration has barely been mentioned and other arguments have not been heard at all:
The ECHR wanting to give prisoners the vote The difficulty of deporting people like Abu Qatada due to ECHR laws The fact the EU has not had its books signed off for x years The treatment of the PIGS and the massive youth unemployment Democratic govts being deposed in Greece and Italy The fact the EU demanded we pay more and Osborne paid up Juncker's election 25-2
Leave need to put the EU on trial and force remain to defend their behaviour.
The full frontal heavy artillery bombardment from HMG should end on Friday.
We will then move to the phase where Leave is peppered with canister shot, and pellets, from a variety of other angles for the next four weeks.
Good news is: debates haven't started yet, and neither has the literature gone out yet.
So there could still be an appetite for some level of swingback to Leave.
Another point I meant to add is that if the polls are currently 55-45 (ignoring dk), then leave only need to convince 1 in 10 remainers to switch. I don't see this as by any means impossible if you consider that remain voters are probably much less tribal than voters of the political parties are.
I also agree the debates are important. lots of coverage on a level playing field for leave, while remain won't just be able to talk about the economy.
Strangely I'd like Leave to take their own opportunity to major on the economy as often as possible once Purdah starts on Friday. They have some good spokespeople on the economy both inside and outside parliament - get them out there. The pollsters may be on to something about Tory drift to remain. Almost certainly this is due to economic concens. Neutralise these and there's still half a chance.
No haggling, no negotiating for full tank of petrol, just rolls up and pays the asking price.
What is that story really about? Why has our millionaire PM bought a cheap second hand Micra?
Expects to be out of a job pdq, or trying to be a normal, kind of guy, a Blair mark ii, without negotiating skills.
Yeah but surely it fails the spin test: the Micra is not made in Britain or even Europe (Nissan makes other models at Sunderland); his daughter is not old enough to drive. Sam Cam is old enough to look after her own transport. Oh yeah, and he is a mate of Jeremy Clarkson who knows about cars.
The Micra was made in Sunderland up until 2008 and I think Cameron's car is older than that so in all probability it was a UK made one.
@rowenamason: Cameron says there's "uncertainty" over whether EU citizens in UK + UK citizens in EU have right to stay where they are in event of Brexit
That does raise the interesting question of whether the Remain campaign have made inroads into getting ex-pats to register and vote. Does anyone know?
A lot of advertising here in Spain about the uncertainty posed by 'Leave' and the need to register. Everyone I know has their postal vote organised - and friends and family back in the UK fully primed of the potential dangers to their cheap breaks in the sun.
My Facebook feed has had Electoral Commission ads for 'register to vote' for a while now - and has just moved to 'you can vote by proxy' - so someone has clearly tried....
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November is a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
FWIW, I posted this yesterday ...
Greetings from Washington DC. Just had lunch at the Capitol Hill Club, the place in town where t Republicans congregate. A few snippets to report: 1. The feeling is that Trump has a real chance of winning in November, thanks to HC's unpopularity and his amazingly teflon qualities. 2. A real spanner in the works, though, could be the emergence of stories about mob links. You can't do big builds in New York without having to deal with the mafia, apparently. 3. If he does win he is going to have trouble bringing in A list Republicans to serve in his administration. He's just too unpredictable. 4. He may not actually be a Republican! 5. The Senate looks like it may flip to the Democrats in November, before flipping back to the GOP in 2018.
Make of this what you will. No huge surprises, but 2 and 4 may explain a lot about why Trump is so worrisome for the GOP establishment.
Any rumours of a Veep?
If Trump picks a young, likeable, successful woman it's over for Clinton.
I doubt Trump believes such a creature can actually exist.
The old white man Newt Gingrich leads the betting by a country mile.
Trump would be an idiot to go for that choice, in my view, and he ain't no idiot.
You could lay at about 2.3 last time I checked, but that was a few days ago.
Like I said, having personally driven this neighbourhood, since the early 90s, into squalor, derlection and outright civil strife, I am prepared to share the grievous, Syria-like hit they've taken, in terms of house prices
Likewise Princedale Road, Holland Park, and Kensington Park Road, Notting Hill, the other two places where I did 90% of my Personal Ruining.
Good morning all. A set of really interesting discussions. :
1) I would accept the result of the referendum completely. I am incredibly grateful to the Prime Minister for offering the referendum and if Remain wins, Leave have lost the argument plain and simple. That is not to say the argument was wrong of course.
2) I would expect the Prime Minister's negotiated deal to be implemented in full and protected vigorously by the British government. I would also expect the UK government to work to ensure the deal is implemented as effectively as possible to protect UK interest i.e. there are some questions/concerns over whether the PM's deal helps/hinders UK protection of the city and this needs clarification/refining.
3) As a Leave supporter I would revert to seeking reform within the EU. The British public will have voted to maintain membership of the EU, but that doesn't stop me from thinking the EU doesn't work effectively or that the EU will continue to seek ever closer union which impacts on the UK. More specifically I would seek the development of a flexible, multi-track EU and hope a British government will utilise any treaty changes in the future to push this. Therefore there would be a need to develop detailed workings of how this could be achieved for a UK government to implement and lobbying of that government. More specifically in the shorter term I would focus on key areas for a 'win' - e.g. a need to work on the influence of the ECJ (see Jesse Norman's great article here on Conservativehome) and I would also like to see more focus on developing a transition model for the UK, e.g. what would EEA membership be like and how could it be enacted?
4) I would hope the British government will work to make the UK less dependent on the EU. This is not specifically anti-EU, but merely acceptance that the UK shouldn't be overly dependent on any external body or third-party country.
In terms of the politics of the situation, I remain strongly of the view that a Conservative government is the current best way to attain a generally EU-sceptic worldview from the British government. I say 'attain' deliberately, as UKIP in its current form could not achieve this as they wouldn't win enough public support, whilst their approach to the EU tends to be more about complaining than offering workable options. Indeed my current view as an EU-sceptic would certainly not be to walk into the arms of UKIP post-Remain vote. I don't share many values with UKIP (the EU is not the only policy area of interest!) and I certainly don't share their vision of the EU, nor do I believe they could ever get us in to a situation where we can change our relationship with the EU. As such I would likely campaign to defeat UKIP where possible, even with a Remain vote. I also wouldn't expect a Labour or Lib Dem government to be as EU-sceptic as the Conservatives.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November is a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
FWIW, I posted this yesterday ...
Greetings from Washington DC. Just had lunch at the Capitol Hill Club, the place in town where t Republicans congregate. A few snippets to report: 1. The feeling is that Trump has a real chance of winning in November, thanks to HC's unpopularity and his amazingly teflon qualities. 2. A real spanner in the works, though, could be the emergence of stories about mob links. You can't do big builds in New York without having to deal with the mafia, apparently. 3. If he does win he is going to have trouble bringing in A list Republicans to serve in his administration. He's just too unpredictable. 4. He may not actually be a Republican! 5. The Senate looks like it may flip to the Democrats in November, before flipping back to the GOP in 2018.
Make of this what you will. No huge surprises, but 2 and 4 may explain a lot about why Trump is so worrisome for the GOP establishment.
Any rumours of a Veep?
If Trump picks a young, likeable, successful woman it's over for Clinton.
I doubt Trump believes such a creature can actually exist.
The old white man Newt Gingrich leads the betting by a country mile.
Trump would be an idiot to go for that choice, in my view, and he ain't no idiot.
You could lay at about 2.3 last time I checked, but that was a few days ago.
Good morning all. A set of really interesting discussions. I am an ardent Leave supporter but if the UK votes to Remain my position would likely be as follows:
1) I would accept the result of the referendum completely. I am incredibly grateful to the Prime Minister for offering the referendum and if Remain wins, Leave have lost the argument plain and simple. That is not to say the argument was wrong of course.
2) I would expect the Prime Minister's negotiated deal to be implemented in full and protected vigorously by the British government. I would also expect the UK government to work to ensure the deal is implemented as effectively as possible to protect UK interest i.e. there are some questions/concerns over whether the PM's deal helps/hinders UK protection of the city and this needs clarification/refining.
3) As a Leave supporter I would revert to seeking reform within the EU. The British public will have voted to maintain membership of the EU, but that doesn't stop me from thinking the EU doesn't work effectively or that the EU will continue to seek ever closer union which impacts on the UK. More specifically I would seek the development of a flexible, multi-track EU and hope a British government will utilise any treaty changes in the future to push this. Therefore there would be a need to develop detailed workings of how this could be achieved for a UK government to implement and lobbying of that government. More specifically in the shorter term I would focus on key areas for a 'win' - e.g. a need to work on the influence of the ECJ (see Jesse Norman's great article here on Conservativehome) and I would also like to see more focus on developing a transition model for the UK, e.g. what would EEA membership be like and how could it be enacted?
...(Snipped the rest (which I agree with) for word count limits...
Whilst I think this is a very reasonable position to take overall I also have to say that it is, in parts, utterly unrealistic.
It appears to be based on the premise that the EU can be changed in a way that will suit the UK and, more importantly, will not change in ways which do not suit the UK.
It is also based on the idea that there was some substance to Cameron's negotiation and that we have some protections in place as a result.
Finally it suggests changes which are utterly counter to the fundamental rules and principles of the EU - particularly regarding the role of the ECJ.
I am afraid that the only choice to be made after a vote to Remain is either continuing the fight against the EU and pushing for Brexit by any democratic means possible or abject surrender to Ever Closer Union. The one thing we will not be able to do is influence the direction of an EU newly emboldened by a Remain vote.
Good morning all. A set of really interesting discussions. I am an ardent Leave supporter but if the UK votes to Remain my position would likely be as follows:
1) I would accept the result of the referendum completely. I am incredibly grateful to the Prime Minister for offering the referendum and if Remain wins, Leave have lost the argument plain and simple. That is not to say the argument was wrong of course.
2) I would expect the Prime Minister's negotiated deal to be implemented in full and protected vigorously by the British government. I would also expect the UK government to work to ensure the deal is implemented as effectively as possible to protect UK interest i.e. there are some questions/concerns over whether the PM's deal helps/hinders UK protection of the city and this needs clarification/refining.
3) As a Leave supporter I would revert to seeking reform within the EU. The British public will have voted to maintain membership of the EU, but that doesn't stop me from thinking the EU doesn't work effectively or that the EU will continue to seek ever closer union which impacts on the UK. More specifically I would seek the development of a flexible, multi-track EU and hope a British government will utilise any treaty changes in the future to push this. Therefore there would be a need to develop detailed workings of how this could be achieved for a UK government to implement and lobbying of that government. More specifically in the shorter term I would focus on key areas for a 'win' - e.g. a need to work on the influence of the ECJ (see Jesse Norman's great article here on Conservativehome) and I would also like to see more focus on developing a transition model for the UK, e.g. what would EEA membership be like and how could it be enacted?
4) I would hope the British government will work to make the UK less dependent on the EU. This is not specifically anti-EU, but merely acceptance that the UK shouldn't be overly dependent on any external body or third-party country.
In terms of the politics of the situation, I remain strongly of the view that a Conservative government is the current best way to attain a generally EU-sceptic worldview from the British government. I say 'attain' deliberately, as UKIP in its current form could not achieve this as they wouldn't win enough public support, whilst their approach to the EU tends to be more about complaining than offering workable options.
Very sensible - you'd be a good addition to a post-Referendum Cameron unity reshuffle.
As a probably Remain voter, I'd hope that even most of the Tory Remain MPs would be pushing for your points 2, 3 and 4. I just think we stand a better chance of negotiating a good relationship with the EU from the inside than from the outside.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November is a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
FWIW, I posted this yesterday ...
Greetings from Washington DC. Just had lunch at the Capitol Hill Club, the place in town where t Republicans congregate. A few snippets to report: 1. The feeling is that Trump has a real chance of winning in November, thanks to HC's unpopularity and his amazingly teflon qualities. 2. A real spanner in the works, though, could be the emergence of stories about mob links. You can't do big builds in New York without having to deal with the mafia, apparently. 3. If he does win he is going to have trouble bringing in A list Republicans to serve in his administration. He's just too unpredictable. 4. He may not actually be a Republican! 5. The Senate looks like it may flip to the Democrats in November, before flipping back to the GOP in 2018.
Make of this what you will. No huge surprises, but 2 and 4 may explain a lot about why Trump is so worrisome for the GOP establishment.
Any rumours of a Veep?
If Trump picks a young, likeable, successful woman it's over for Clinton.
I doubt Trump believes such a creature can actually exist.
The old white man Newt Gingrich leads the betting by a country mile.
I think Americans would be happy with this lady being only a heartbeat away from the Presidency, and in 4 or 8 years time perhaps becoming the first female POTUS... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwOEycYVKqc
F1: unlikely to come off, but backed McLaren to top score at 41 on Ladbrokes.
It was the third fastest car in sector three of Spain (which is tight and twisty). If that holds up and it's the third fastest car in Monaco, given reliability issues and ease of crashing for those ahead, then 41 is too long.
The third team (in odds order) is Ferrari, which is 5.5. I think that's stingy, but it does give an idea of what the odds might be in reality, if McLaren's chassis is all it's cracked up to be.
Only put a tiny sum on and, as before, this won't count in the records.
@rowenamason: Cameron says there's "uncertainty" over whether EU citizens in UK + UK citizens in EU have right to stay where they are in event of Brexit
That does raise the interesting question of whether the Remain campaign have made inroads into getting ex-pats to register and vote. Does anyone know?
A lot of advertising here in Spain about the uncertainty posed by 'Leave' and the need to register. Everyone I know has their postal vote organised - and friends and family back in the UK fully primed of the potential dangers to their cheap breaks in the sun.
"Two of the last four phone polls have REMAIN leading amongst 65+ voters"
Well that shows what a load of crap the polls are! Someone had to say it.
And the betting market looks as though it's being manipulated too.
Most people I talk to think the Leave campaign has been a shambles. They feel they can see through it. They take the attitude, "Ha! What are you going to try to scare us about next?" Most of them don't like Farage, some can't stand Johnson either (although some like him), but those figures aren't seen as relevant. No politician is seen as particularly relevant. In that respect, the EU referendum is not only nothing like an election; it's also nothing like the AV or Scottish referendums
I'm curious as to whether Remainers here would rule out ever rejoining the EU at any time were the vote to go Leave's way, since that appears to be what they want Leave to do under the opposite circumstances.
Good morning all. A set of really interesting discussions. I am an ardent Leave supporter but if the UK votes to Remain my position would likely be as follows:
3) As a Leave supporter I would revert to seeking reform within the EU. The British public will have voted to maintain membership of the EU, but that doesn't stop me from thinking the EU doesn't work effectively or that the EU will continue to seek ever closer union which impacts on the UK. More specifically I would seek the development of a flexible, multi-track EU and hope a British government will utilise any treaty changes in the future to push this. Therefore there would be a need to develop detailed workings of how this could be achieved for a UK government to implement and lobbying of that government. More specifically in the shorter term I would focus on key areas for a 'win' - e.g. a need to work on the influence of the ECJ (see Jesse Norman's great article here on Conservativehome) and I would also like to see more focus on developing a transition model for the UK, e.g. what would EEA membership be like and how could it be enacted?
...(Snipped the rest (which I agree with) for word count limits...
Whilst I think this is a very reasonable position to take overall I also have to say that it is, in parts, utterly unrealistic.
It appears to be based on the premise that the EU can be changed in a way that will suit the UK and, more importantly, will not change in ways which do not suit the UK.
It is also based on the idea that there was some substance to Cameron's negotiation and that we have some protections in place as a result.
Finally it suggests changes which are utterly counter to the fundamental rules and principles of the EU - particularly regarding the role of the ECJ.
I am afraid that the only choice to be made after a vote to Remain is either continuing the fight against the EU and pushing for Brexit by any democratic means possible or abject surrender to Ever Closer Union. The one thing we will not be able to do is influence the direction of an EU newly emboldened by a Remain vote.
Shades of grey don't make for great discussion boards or lively PB interactions, but as @Luckyguy1983 yesterday said, and it's a position, together with @JamesM , that I agree or have sympathy with, this if nothing else has awoken the consciousness of the electorate to some of the workings of the EU. That per se is a good thing IMO.
If a large proportion of Leavers then dedicate themselves to reform, or if UKIP fix upon some particular issues, rather than just Out, then I see a real chance of reform or movement to reform of our relationship with the EU.
Good morning all. A set of really interesting discussions. I am an ardent Leave supporter but if the UK votes to Remain my position would likely be as follows:
*snip*
In terms of the politics of the situation, I remain strongly of the view that a Conservative government is the current best way to attain a generally EU-sceptic worldview from the British government. I say 'attain' deliberately, as UKIP in its current form could not achieve this as they wouldn't win enough public support, whilst their approach to the EU tends to be more about complaining than offering workable options. Indeed my current view as an EU-sceptic would certainly not be to walk into the arms of UKIP post-Remain vote. I don't share many values with UKIP (the EU is not the only policy area of interest!) and I certainly don't share their vision of the EU, nor do I believe they could ever get us in to a situation where we can change our relationship with the EU. As such I would likely campaign to defeat UKIP where possible, even with a Remain vote. I also wouldn't expect a Labour or Lib Dem government to be as EU-sceptic as the Conservatives.
That's probably what I'd like to say, if I wasn't a nutter with Anger Management Issues.
I didn't vote Con the other week for the first time in 20 odd years - and will I bother again before the GE if the europhiliac dunces GO and DC continue to bumble along in charge ? Probably not - they have put me right off with their slave to Brussels nonsense.
Would you really choose the defacto end of nation-state parliamentary democracy because you are worried about one year long recession? That is huge short termism in my opinion and is regrettable.
And people wonder why Brexiteers get labelled extreme...
"the defacto end of nation-state parliamentary democracy" is not on the ballot paper, and if a year long recession meant I might lose my job or home (which is what the article is about) then yes, I would have pause for thought.
Exactly it's not effect on lots of peoples livelihoods that is alarming.
The
The .
Lol. So
Yes,
This Etc. It's ridiculous.
Of courseed drugs did that.
IF YOU EVER HAD A DRINK YOU CAUSED ALCOHOLISM IN NEWCASTLE
I'm afraid
OK. I'll come EVERYTHING.
You're still a traitor. Etc.
Yes, you have directly contributed to theould and should do more.
Ha, ha - priceless. So no links at all between your dealers and the gangs. They were just plucky solo operators, buying from fine, upstanding sources. Of course they were.
Sorry, you have helped to do a lot of damage to the working class communities you pretend to care about. And even now you clearly don't notice the estates that criss-cross your part of London and which are plagued by the violence your habit helped to foster.
Good morning all. A set of really interesting discussions. I am an ardent Leave supporter but if the UK votes to Remain my position would likely be as follows:
*snip*
In terms of the politics of the situation, I remain strongly of the view that a Conservative government is the current best way to attain a generally EU-sceptic worldview from the British government. I say 'attain' deliberately, as UKIP in its current form could not achieve this as they wouldn't win enough public support, whilst their approach to the EU tends to be more about complaining than offering workable options. Indeed my current view as an EU-sceptic would certainly not be to walk into the arms of UKIP post-Remain vote. I don't share many values with UKIP (the EU is not the only policy area of interest!) and I certainly don't share their vision of the EU, nor do I believe they could ever get us in to a situation where we can change our relationship with the EU. As such I would likely campaign to defeat UKIP where possible, even with a Remain vote. I also wouldn't expect a Labour or Lib Dem government to be as EU-sceptic as the Conservatives.
That's probably what I'd like to say, if I wasn't a nutter with Anger Management Issues.
I didn't vote Con the other week for the first time in 20 odd years - and will I bother again before the GE if the europhiliac dunces GO and DC continue to bumble along in charge ? Probably not - they have put me right off with their slave to Brussels nonsense.
Tawts.
As Scott pointed out - in 2020 you will be threatened with Corbyn.
@rowenamason: Cameron says there's "uncertainty" over whether EU citizens in UK + UK citizens in EU have right to stay where they are in event of Brexit
That does raise the interesting question of whether the Remain campaign have made inroads into getting ex-pats to register and vote. Does anyone know?
A lot of advertising here in Spain about the uncertainty posed by 'Leave' and the need to register. Everyone I know has their postal vote organised - and friends and family back in the UK fully primed of the potential dangers to their cheap breaks in the sun.
There is no such danger.
There you are wrong - there is a very real danger and expats as well as the many thousands more with second homes here are very aware of it. If you cannot see that a potential Leave vote produces this uncertainty then you haven't been following.
Good morning all. A set of really interesting discussions. I am an ardent Leave supporter but if the UK votes to Remain my position would likely be as follows:
1) I would accept the result of the referendum completely. I am incredibly grateful to the Prime Minister for offering the referendum and if Remain wins, Leave have lost the argument plain and simple. That is not to say the argument was wrong of course.
2) I would expect the Prime Minister's negotiated deal to be implemented in full and protected vigorously by the British government. I would also expect the UK government to work to ensure the deal is implemented as effectively as possible to protect UK interest i.e. there are some questions/concerns over whether the PM's deal helps/hinders UK protection of the city and this needs clarification/refining.
3) As a Leave supporter I would revert to seeking reform within the EU. The British public will have voted to maintain membership of the EU, but that doesn't stop me from thinking the EU doesn't work effectively or that the EU will continue to seek ever closer union which impacts on the UK. More specifically I would seek the development of a flexible, multi-track EU and hope a British government will utilise any treaty changes in the future to push this. Therefore there would be a need to develop detailed workings of how this could be achieved for a UK government to implement and lobbying of that government. More specifically in the shorter term I would focus on key areas for a 'win' - e.g. a need to work on the influence of the ECJ (see Jesse Norman's great article here on Conservativehome) and I would also like to see more focus on developing a transition model for the UK, e.g. what would EEA membership be like and how could it be enacted?
4) I would hope the British government will work to make the UK less dependent on the EU. This is not specifically anti-EU, but merely acceptance that the UK shouldn't be overly dependent on any external body or third-party country.
This is all pie in the sky. There will be no implementation of Cameron's "deal" or "reform" of the EU or a "loosening" of our relationship or the emergence of a "two speed" Europe.
The day after the referendum it will just be back to business as usual... More integration, more sovereignty being lost, more attacks on UK interests, etc... But with the added twist that the EU zealots like Heseltine and Clarke and Mandelson (and Cameron and Osborne?) will feel emboldened to start pushing their pipe dreams of the Euro and the single army once again. Everything will be back on the table.
I think it would have been far, far better for eurosceptics if we'd never had this referendum (as I think Richard Nabavi warned years ago to be fair)
''ell that shows what a load of crap the polls are! Someone had to say it. And the betting market looks as though it's being manipulated too.''
If you are going to say the polls are boll8cks, I think you need a reason to back up what is after all a hunch.
For me its the half of the tory parliamentary party, and almost all the constituency associations, wanting to Brexit.
If these polls are correct, these people are way, way out of touch with their voters. And I'm not sure that they are.
Conventionally in a two-party system, party activists are way, way out of touch with their voters. If they were exactly where the median voter was there wouldn't be much point in activizing, because you could just let activists on either side do their thing and cancel each other out.
Leaves campaign has ben absolutely awful, we didn't learn from Scotland ref and project fear. A campaign led by losers (IDS, Farage, Gorgeous George(how many by-elections has he lost now??) a campaign that is reacting instead of putting the positive case, often fighting each other instead of Remain and now even tories who had been leaning towards leave for a long time will vote to stay.
Oh well if the vote is close we have a hope of the tories electing a leaver and another referundum, but it looks like remain will win comprehensivley -57-43%. Meaning the issue will be put to bed in the "mainstream" for atleast a decade. Even if it's 55-45 to remain I can't see tory MP's banging on about Europe too soon after a defeat that has such a clear result. Only 51-49 will mean another ref very soon.
Shades of grey don't make for great discussion boards or lively PB interactions, but as @Luckyguy1983 yesterday said, and it's a position, together with @JamesM , that I agree or have sympathy with, this if nothing else has awoken the consciousness of the electorate to some of the workings of the EU. That per se is a good thing IMO.
If a large proportion of Leavers then dedicate themselves to reform, or if UKIP fix upon some particular issues, rather than just Out, then I see a real chance of reform or movement to reform of our relationship with the EU.
The problem with that being that reform of the EU does not in any way now depend on what the British want. We are irrelevant. Our sole ability now is to use our very limited veto to block some measures. But even that may well be circumvented by the ECJ in the future.
The EU not only wants to unify, it needs to and it is not realistic to imagine that there is anything we can do about it. Forty years of failure to influence the direction of the EU will not change because we decided to stay.
I'm curious as to whether Remainers here would rule out ever rejoining the EU at any time were the vote to go Leave's way, since that appears to be what they want Leave to do under the opposite circumstances.
Ever is a long time.
On a related aside, I've the idea for a piece which I'll probably write in the last weekend of the campaign on a factor of that very topic which is looking like the dog that isn't barking (assuming that by that point it hasn't stirred).
But it makes no sense for either side to demand of the other that the vote will define a perpetual settlement. 1975 didn't, and nor has any of the general elections at which one or more parties advocated withdrawal and were defeated.
Good morning all. A set of really interesting discussions. I am an ardent Leave supporter but if the UK votes to Remain my position would likely be as follows:
*snip*
In terms of the politics of the situation, I remain strongly of the view that a Conservative government is the current best way to attain a generally EU-sceptic worldview from the British government. I say 'attain' deliberately, as UKIP in its current form could not achieve this as they wouldn't win enough public support, whilst their approach to the EU tends to be more about complaining than offering workable options. Indeed my current view as an EU-sceptic would certainly not be to walk into the arms of UKIP post-Remain vote. I don't share many values with UKIP (the EU is not the only policy area of interest!) and I certainly don't share their vision of the EU, nor do I believe they could ever get us in to a situation where we can change our relationship with the EU. As such I would likely campaign to defeat UKIP where possible, even with a Remain vote. I also wouldn't expect a Labour or Lib Dem government to be as EU-sceptic as the Conservatives.
That's probably what I'd like to say, if I wasn't a nutter with Anger Management Issues.
I didn't vote Con the other week for the first time in 20 odd years - and will I bother again before the GE if the europhiliac dunces GO and DC continue to bumble along in charge ? Probably not - they have put me right off with their slave to Brussels nonsense.
Tawts.
As Scott pointed out - in 2020 you will be threatened with Corbyn.
Corbyn who wouldn't last 18 months before the IMF would be called in or fake deficit reduction GO as PM ?
Good morning all. A set of really interesting discussions. I am an ardent Leave supporter but if the UK votes to Remain my position would likely be as follows:
So you pinched the 'Sensible Pills', there's been an acute shortage (and some have tried substituting 'Hysteria' in their place, with predictable results....)
I am a soft remainer - but don't see this as some existential crisis with the options on the ballot paper 'Eternal Serfdom' and 'Glorious Freedom, bereft of negative consequences' - but 'on balance, which is the better option now.
The EU is a bit of a mess, and their chances of improving it (and in ways advantageous to us) will be better if we remain.
And if all the horror stories routinely trotted out about 'What the EU has in store if we are foolish enough to vote Yes' turn out to be true, then we can elect a government that will take us out - they won't even need a referendum to do it (though they may choose to hold one).
@rowenamason: Cameron says there's "uncertainty" over whether EU citizens in UK + UK citizens in EU have right to stay where they are in event of Brexit
That does raise the interesting question of whether the Remain campaign have made inroads into getting ex-pats to register and vote. Does anyone know?
A lot of advertising here in Spain about the uncertainty posed by 'Leave' and the need to register. Everyone I know has their postal vote organised - and friends and family back in the UK fully primed of the potential dangers to their cheap breaks in the sun.
There is no such danger.
There you are wrong - there is a very real danger and expats as well as the many thousands more with second homes here are very aware of it. If you cannot see that a potential Leave vote produces this uncertainty then you haven't been following.
Utter rubbish. Cheap breaks occur inside and outside the EU. Turkey and Tunisia are both very popular destinations for getaways in the sun, and outside the EU. Norway is also popular for a different kind of break, as is Iceland.
And we had visa-free access to Europe pre-1973 and we will have it after.
"Whilst I think this is a very reasonable position to take overall I also have to say that it is, in parts, utterly unrealistic.
It appears to be based on the premise that the EU can be changed in a way that will suit the UK and, more importantly, will not change in ways which do not suit the UK.
It is also based on the idea that there was some substance to Cameron's negotiation and that we have some protections in place as a result.
Finally it suggests changes which are utterly counter to the fundamental rules and principles of the EU - particularly regarding the role of the ECJ.
I am afraid that the only choice to be made after a vote to Remain is either continuing the fight against the EU and pushing for Brexit by any democratic means possible or abject surrender to Ever Closer Union. The one thing we will not be able to do is influence the direction of an EU newly emboldened by a Remain vote."
Richard, don't get me wrong. I am voting and campaigning for Vote Leave because I am not a huge fan of the EU in its current form and I have lost a lot of faith in the reform from within strategy. But if Leave loses the referendum then Brexit supporters can either carp from the sidelines as though the referendum never happened or we can box clever. We redouble efforts for reform from within with the increased information and public awareness about the EU as a boost for our side; and we are now in a stronger position of knowing that being anti-EU is not a position held by those described as 'crazy right-wingers'; this is a huge perception change. We also will know where our case was weak and seek to rectify that.
So while I am of the view that reform from within is difficult, there will be some additional opportunities going forwards. Finally, this is not either/or; I will seek reform from within knowing that it has potential limitation as an approach, but it is the most viable approach for now. A further referendum or a government winning an election with a manifesto commitment to leave may come in the future; I am not sure under what conditions; but neither are likely in the short term.
Good morning all. A set of really interesting discussions. I am an ardent Leave supporter but if the UK votes to Remain my position would likely be as follows:
*snip*
In terms of the politics of the situation, I remain strongly of the view that a Conservative government is the current best way to attain a generally EU-sceptic worldview from the British government. I say 'attain' deliberately, as UKIP in its current form could not achieve this as they wouldn't win enough public support, whilst their approach to the EU tends to be more about complaining than offering workable options. Indeed my current view as an EU-sceptic would certainly not be to walk into the arms of UKIP post-Remain vote. I don't share many values with UKIP (the EU is not the only policy area of interest!) and I certainly don't share their vision of the EU, nor do I believe they could ever get us in to a situation where we can change our relationship with the EU. As such I would likely campaign to defeat UKIP where possible, even with a Remain vote. I also wouldn't expect a Labour or Lib Dem government to be as EU-sceptic as the Conservatives.
That's probably what I'd like to say, if I wasn't a nutter with Anger Management Issues.
I didn't vote Con the other week for the first time in 20 odd years - and will I bother again before the GE if the europhiliac dunces GO and DC continue to bumble along in charge ? Probably not - they have put me right off with their slave to Brussels nonsense.
Tawts.
As Scott pointed out - in 2020 you will be threatened with Corbyn.
I would very seriously consider voting for Corbyn in 2020. He might be a disaster but he'd certainly shake things up and get this country out of the slumber it's entered in to.
Big Business and all the tax avoiding corporations (currently playing their part in REMAIN) need a shake as well... No chance Google, Amazon and all the rest would ever be brought to heel with the Tories and the Posh Boys. They just send HMRC to chase the working man and small business owners to their graves (while allowing the corporations to do whatever the hell they like)
Good morning all. A set of really interesting discussions. I am an ardent Leave supporter but if the UK votes to Remain my position would likely be as follows:
1) I would accept the result of the referendum completely. I am incredibly grateful to the Prime Minister for offering the referendum and if Remain wins, Leave have lost the argument plain and simple. That is not to say the argument was wrong of course.
2) I would expect the Prime Minister's negotiated deal to be implemented in full and protected vigorously by the British government. I would also expect the UK government to work to ensure the deal is implemented as effectively as possible to protect UK interest i.e. there are some questions/concerns over whether the PM's deal helps/hinders UK protection of the city and this needs clarification/refining.
3) As a Leave supporter I would revert to seeking reform within the EU. The British public will have voted to maintain membership of the EU, but that doesn't stop me from thinking the EU doesn't work effectively or that the EU will continue to seek ever closer union which impacts on the UK. More specifically I would seek the development of a flexible, multi-track EU and hope a British government will utilise any treaty changes in the future to push this. Therefore there would be a need to develop detailed workings of how this could be achieved for a UK government to implement and lobbying of that government. More specifically in the shorter term I would focus on key areas for a 'win' - e.g. a need to work on the influence of the ECJ (see Jesse Norman's great article here on Conservativehome) and I would also like to see more focus on developing a transition model for the UK, e.g. what would EEA membership be like and how could it be enacted?
4) I would hope the British government will work to make the UK less dependent on the EU. This is not specifically anti-EU, but merely acceptance that the UK shouldn't be overly dependent on any external body or third-party country.
I think it would have been far, far better for eurosceptics if we'd never had this referendum (as I think Richard Nabavi warned years ago to be fair)
Cameron's original proposal was that there would be a referendum on the acceptance or rejection of the deal he had obtained from the EU. It was the Tory BOOers who pushed him into offering an In-Out referendum.
Would you really choose the defacto end of nation-state parliamentary democracy because you are worried about one year long recession? That is huge short termism in my opinion and is regrettable.
And people wonder why Brexiteers get labelled extreme...
"the defacto end of nation-state parliamentary democracy" is not on the ballot paper, and if a year long recession meant I might lose my job or home (which is what the article is about) then yes, I would have pause for thought.
Exactly it's not effect on lots of peoples livelihoods that is alarming.
The
The .
Lol. So
Yes,
This Etc. It's ridiculous.
Of courseed drugs did that.
IF YOU EVER HAD A DRINK YOU CAUSED ALCOHOLISM IN NEWCASTLE
I'm afraid
OK. I'll come EVERYTHING.
You're still a traitor. Etc.
Yes, you have directly contributed to theould and should do more.
You've cheered me up though, with the most delightfully ridiculous argument of the week.
For that, if nothing else, I will make this promise: to stop calling you a traitor (though you are) for the rest of the day. So I hereby promise not to call you a traitor, even though you are a traitor. You, the traitor, won't hear me call you a traitor from now until midnight. Promise.
Bless you! The thing is - you know I'm right. You know what you did and the people you dealt with. You should feel free to call me a traitor at every opportunity. And I will call you a hypocrite who cries crocodile tears for people whose lives you care nothing for. A score draw, I think.
@rowenamason: Cameron says there's "uncertainty" over whether EU citizens in UK + UK citizens in EU have right to stay where they are in event of Brexit
That does raise the interesting question of whether the Remain campaign have made inroads into getting ex-pats to register and vote. Does anyone know?
A lot of advertising here in Spain about the uncertainty posed by 'Leave' and the need to register. Everyone I know has their postal vote organised - and friends and family back in the UK fully primed of the potential dangers to their cheap breaks in the sun.
There is no such danger.
There you are wrong - there is a very real danger and expats as well as the many thousands more with second homes here are very aware of it. If you cannot see that a potential Leave vote produces this uncertainty then you haven't been following.
Utter rubbish. Cheap breaks occur inside and outside the EU. Turkey and Tunisia are both very popular destinations for getaways in the sun, and outside the EU. Norway is also popular for a different kind of break, as is Iceland.
And we had visa-free access to Europe pre-1973 and we will have it after.
This is sheer propaganda.
Maybe but it's effective - I have a non-political friend who inherited a flat in Spain from his parents. He is very concerned that if the UK left the EU the flat would be harder to sell and there would be uncertainty about free access to medical care for Brits in Spain which would deter holiday renters and potential retirees. Therefore he is voting Remain.
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November is a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
FWIW, I posted this yesterday ...
Greetings from Washington DC. Just had lunch at the Capitol Hill Club, the place in town where t Republicans congregate. A few snippets to report: 1. The feeling is that Trump has a real chance of winning in November, thanks to HC's unpopularity and his amazingly teflon qualities. 2. A real spanner in the works, though, could be the emergence of stories about mob links. You can't do big builds in New York without having to deal with the mafia, apparently. 3. If he does win he is going to have trouble bringing in A list Republicans to serve in his administration. He's just too unpredictable. 4. He may not actually be a Republican! 5. The Senate looks like it may flip to the Democrats in November, before flipping back to the GOP in 2018.
Make of this what you will. No huge surprises, but 2 and 4 may explain a lot about why Trump is so worrisome for the GOP establishment.
Any rumours of a Veep?
If Trump picks a young, likeable, successful woman it's over for Clinton.
Second-guessing VP picks is always a needle in a haystack job. The obvious candidates are nearly always too short in the betting (Gingrich - evens?!) and there are so many wildcard options that picking the nominee involves a huge element of luck. As with all such nominations, you have to work out what the preferences are of both the candidate and his/her potential running mates (would the accept even if asked?).
FWIW, I think Susana Martinez would be an excellent pick for Trump but that assumes that she'd want to serve with him and him with her.
Maybe but it's effective - I have a non-political friend who inherited a flat in Spain from his parents. He is very concerned that if the UK left the EU the flat would be harder to sell and there would be uncertainty about free access to medical care for Brits in Spain which would deter holiday renters and potential retirees. Therefore he is voting Remain.
There's a big difference between short visits for holidays, which obviously won't be affected at all, and the right of residence + healthcare. It is factually correct that the latter would be uncertain in the case of a Leave result; it would depend on what deal was agreed.
I must say I thought that removing these automatic reciprocal rights was precisely the intention of the Leavers, so it's a bit odd that they seem to be saying it's scaremongering.
Greetings from Washington DC. Just had lunch at the Capitol Hill Club, the place in town where t Republicans congregate. A few snippets to report: (...) 2. A real spanner in the works, though, could be the emergence of stories about mob links. You can't do big builds in New York without having to deal with the mafia, apparently.
It won't just be stories about the past. Trump's best known policy is the border wall. The wall will require huge contracts for concrete. Where's the government going to buy it? Everyone knows it's the mob that controls concrete.
From the mob's point of view, Trump is clearly the favoured candidate.
I don't think this will harm Trump much. He's a thuggish-mannered billionaire. One doesn't even need to know that a large part of his fortune has been made in construction projects in New York and in property management, hospitality, golf clubs, hotels and casinos. I mean seriously, what do people expect?
I remember a couple of months back, people on here saying that the huge crowds flocking to Trump rallies were just examples of Milifandom, along with the huge increases in turnouts at republican primaries.
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
There's something happening. But what? The last national poll was five days ago...
People have started to see how vulnerable 'crooked' Hillary is to a Trump style negative campaign. It's clear now that Bill's reputation is about to be utterly trashed in a way that ought to have been predicted. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary files for divorce before November is a desperate bid to detach herself from the mess.
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
The Democrats are split whilst the GOP is unifying. There will be a shift back to the Dems once Sanders is out the way, the question is whether the damage is already done.
It's more fundamental than that. This is not someone equipped to fight back against what's about to hit her.
I don't think it is any more fundamental. I understand the weaknesses of HRC, and there are plenty on Trump's side as well. Some Republican financers will likely stay out of the GOP race, as well.
I don't understand the dynamics of Clinton's unpopularity. She clearly is unpopular right now. However this time last year she was quite popular. The Clintons have been around for so long you would think opinions would be set by now.
@rowenamason: Cameron says there's "uncertainty" over whether EU citizens in UK + UK citizens in EU have right to stay where they are in event of Brexit
That does raise the interesting question of whether the Remain campaign have made inroads into getting ex-pats to register and vote. Does anyone know?
A lot of advertising here in Spain about the uncertainty posed by 'Leave' and the need to register. Everyone I know has their postal vote organised - and friends and family back in the UK fully primed of the potential dangers to their cheap breaks in the sun.
There is no such danger.
There you are wrong - there is a very real danger and expats as well as the many thousands more with second homes here are very aware of it. If you cannot see that a potential Leave vote produces this uncertainty then you haven't been following.
Utter rubbish. Cheap breaks occur inside and outside the EU. Turkey and Tunisia are both very popular destinations for getaways in the sun, and outside the EU. Norway is also popular for a different kind of break, as is Iceland.
And we had visa-free access to Europe pre-1973 and we will have it after.
This is sheer propaganda.
Maybe but it's effective - I have a non-political friend who inherited a flat in Spain from his parents. He is very concerned that if the UK left the EU the flat would be harder to sell and there would be uncertainty about free access to medical care for Brits in Spain which would deter holiday renters and potential retirees. Therefore he is voting Remain.
I am in the same position as TGOHF. Corbyn doesn't scare me, and he may do me some good. My mother's care fees (she lives with me, but still has her own house so she has an asset) have gone up 550% in five years - an hour in the morning, three half hour visits in the day and a quarter hour at night - 2 carers - 365 days a year - £21 / hour each is £42,000 / year after tax. This is at Bournemouth rates. A Labour government would suit me better because care supplied directly by the council was half the price the agency changes.
Tbh I've never really understood the clamour for all-night tubes. Capacity and reliability during the day (especially as the rush hour now lasts 3 or 4 hours) ought to be more pressing issues.
Maybe but it's effective - I have a non-political friend who inherited a flat in Spain from his parents. He is very concerned that if the UK left the EU the flat would be harder to sell and there would be uncertainty about free access to medical care for Brits in Spain which would deter holiday renters and potential retirees. Therefore he is voting Remain.
There's a big difference between short visits for holidays, which obviously won't be affected at all, and the right of residence + healthcare. It is factually correct that the latter would be uncertain in the case of a Leave result; it would depend on what deal was agreed.
I must say I thought that removing these automatic reciprocal rights was precisely the intention of the Leavers, so it's a bit odd that they seem to be saying it's scaremongering.
Considering the UK pays for these people's healthcare, I'm interested upon what basis you feel it will be withheld.
"Whilst I think this is a very reasonable position to take overall I also have to say that it is, in parts, utterly unrealistic.
It appears to be based on the premise that the EU can be changed in a way that will suit the UK and, more importantly, will not change in ways which do not suit the UK.
It is also based on the idea that there was some substance to Cameron's negotiation and that we have some protections in place as a result.
Finally it suggests changes which are utterly counter to the fundamental rules and principles of the EU - particularly regarding the role of the ECJ.
I am afraid that the only choice to be made after a vote to Remain is either continuing the fight against the EU and pushing for Brexit by any democratic means possible or abject surrender to Ever Closer Union. The one thing we will not be able to do is influence the direction of an EU newly emboldened by a Remain vote."
Richard, don't get me wrong. I am voting and campaigning for Vote Leave because I am not a huge fan of the EU in its current form and I have lost a lot of faith in the reform from within strategy. But if Leave loses the referendum then Brexit supporters can either carp from the sidelines as though the referendum never happened or we can box clever. We redouble efforts for reform from within with the increased information and public awareness about the EU as a boost for our side; and we are now in a stronger position of knowing that being anti-EU is not a position held by those described as 'crazy right-wingers'; this is a huge perception change. We also will know where our case was weak and seek to rectify that.
So while I am of the view that reform from within is difficult, there will be some additional opportunities going forwards. Finally, this is not either/or; I will seek reform from within knowing that it has potential limitation as an approach, but it is the most viable approach for now. A further referendum or a government winning an election with a manifesto commitment to leave may come in the future; I am not sure under what conditions; but neither are likely in the short term.
We have a golden opportunity for reform when they try to negotiate a new Eurozone Treaty. It is imperative they do this in the next few years, so when that happens we should demand changes in our favour. If they try to sign a separate treaty without doing this, we should refuse to let them use EU institutions and buildings. That was Cameron's mistake last time.
Choosing a woman is such a no-brainer that personally I'd concentrate on them for betting purposes. I mentioned Shelley Moore Capito as one possible contender; Trump has explicitly and very sensibly said that he needs wants someone with Washington experience, which I think tends to point away from some of the other names that have been mentioned.
Comments
Mostly, the same people backing an easy remain victory.
The difference between then and now is that there's only a month left to the referendum vote whereas there was half a parliament left back in 2012/3.
i found out last night the SNP own an island.
I now see Malky and Divot in their underground lair waiting for the siren to go off.
Quick, someone has posted on PB. ThunderNats are GO !!!
...in fairness, Tourette's Turnip is consistent in wanting FREEDOM from both Westminster & Brussels, something that 'contradiction, I see no contradiction!' Nicola is not....
What odds would you lay him at?
ThunderNats!
http://londonstreetgangs.blogspot.fr/2012/10/islington-borough-gangs-profile.html
He needs to hold off on the Clintons for a while to remove any risk of the Democrats doing a switcheroo.
Drinks are on me!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8u_6b7D6Reo
Greetings from Washington DC. Just had lunch at the Capitol Hill Club, the place in town where t Republicans congregate. A few snippets to report:
1. The feeling is that Trump has a real chance of winning in November, thanks to HC's unpopularity and his amazingly teflon qualities.
2. A real spanner in the works, though, could be the emergence of stories about mob links. You can't do big builds in New York without having to deal with the mafia, apparently.
3. If he does win he is going to have trouble bringing in A list Republicans to serve in his administration. He's just too unpredictable.
4. He may not actually be a Republican!
5. The Senate looks like it may flip to the Democrats in November, before flipping back to the GOP in 2018.
Make of this what you will. No huge surprises, but 2 and 4 may explain a lot about why Trump is so worrisome for the GOP establishment.
If Trump picks a young, likeable, successful woman it's over for Clinton.
I still think that he has more negatives than Hillary and that as such, she ought to be favourite (Bill was a womaniser? tell us something we don't know). But it's a lot closer than the odds make out, even now.
Perhaps people linked to Bill are about to come forward with claims.
Entertaining list and good material for trivia questions. What have the Pope, the Euro and General Marshall got in common?
Also interesting that Heath won in 1963. A consolation prize?
1) I would accept the result of the referendum completely. I am incredibly grateful to the Prime Minister for offering the referendum and if Remain wins, Leave have lost the argument plain and simple. That is not to say the argument was wrong of course.
2) I would expect the Prime Minister's negotiated deal to be implemented in full and protected vigorously by the British government. I would also expect the UK government to work to ensure the deal is implemented as effectively as possible to protect UK interest i.e. there are some questions/concerns over whether the PM's deal helps/hinders UK protection of the city and this needs clarification/refining.
3) As a Leave supporter I would revert to seeking reform within the EU. The British public will have voted to maintain membership of the EU, but that doesn't stop me from thinking the EU doesn't work effectively or that the EU will continue to seek ever closer union which impacts on the UK. More specifically I would seek the development of a flexible, multi-track EU and hope a British government will utilise any treaty changes in the future to push this. Therefore there would be a need to develop detailed workings of how this could be achieved for a UK government to implement and lobbying of that government. More specifically in the shorter term I would focus on key areas for a 'win' - e.g. a need to work on the influence of the ECJ (see Jesse Norman's great article here on Conservativehome) and I would also like to see more focus on developing a transition model for the UK, e.g. what would EEA membership be like and how could it be enacted?
4) I would hope the British government will work to make the UK less dependent on the EU. This is not specifically anti-EU, but merely acceptance that the UK shouldn't be overly dependent on any external body or third-party country.
In terms of the politics of the situation, I remain strongly of the view that a Conservative government is the current best way to attain a generally EU-sceptic worldview from the British government. I say 'attain' deliberately, as UKIP in its current form could not achieve this as they wouldn't win enough public support, whilst their approach to the EU tends to be more about complaining than offering workable options. Indeed my current view as an EU-sceptic would certainly not be to walk into the arms of UKIP post-Remain vote. I don't share many values with UKIP (the EU is not the only policy area of interest!) and I certainly don't share their vision of the EU, nor do I believe they could ever get us in to a situation where we can change our relationship with the EU. As such I would likely campaign to defeat UKIP where possible, even with a Remain vote. I also wouldn't expect a Labour or Lib Dem government to be as EU-sceptic as the Conservatives.
Whilst I think this is a very reasonable position to take overall I also have to say that it is, in parts, utterly unrealistic.
It appears to be based on the premise that the EU can be changed in a way that will suit the UK and, more importantly, will not change in ways which do not suit the UK.
It is also based on the idea that there was some substance to Cameron's negotiation and that we have some protections in place as a result.
Finally it suggests changes which are utterly counter to the fundamental rules and principles of the EU - particularly regarding the role of the ECJ.
I am afraid that the only choice to be made after a vote to Remain is either continuing the fight against the EU and pushing for Brexit by any democratic means possible or abject surrender to Ever Closer Union. The one thing we will not be able to do is influence the direction of an EU newly emboldened by a Remain vote.
As a probably Remain voter, I'd hope that even most of the Tory Remain MPs would be pushing for your points 2, 3 and 4. I just think we stand a better chance of negotiating a good relationship with the EU from the inside than from the outside.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwOEycYVKqc
Betting PostF1: unlikely to come off, but backed McLaren to top score at 41 on Ladbrokes.
It was the third fastest car in sector three of Spain (which is tight and twisty). If that holds up and it's the third fastest car in Monaco, given reliability issues and ease of crashing for those ahead, then 41 is too long.
The third team (in odds order) is Ferrari, which is 5.5. I think that's stingy, but it does give an idea of what the odds might be in reality, if McLaren's chassis is all it's cracked up to be.
Only put a tiny sum on and, as before, this won't count in the records.
Well that shows what a load of crap the polls are! Someone had to say it.
And the betting market looks as though it's being manipulated too.
Most people I talk to think the Leave campaign has been a shambles. They feel they can see through it. They take the attitude, "Ha! What are you going to try to scare us about next?" Most of them don't like Farage, some can't stand Johnson either (although some like him), but those figures aren't seen as relevant. No politician is seen as particularly relevant. In that respect, the EU referendum is not only nothing like an election; it's also nothing like the AV or Scottish referendums
If a large proportion of Leavers then dedicate themselves to reform, or if UKIP fix upon some particular issues, rather than just Out, then I see a real chance of reform or movement to reform of our relationship with the EU.
And the betting market looks as though it's being manipulated too.''
If you are going to say the polls are boll8cks, I think you need a reason to back up what is after all a hunch.
For me its the half of the tory parliamentary party, and almost all the constituency associations, wanting to Brexit.
If these polls are correct, these people are way, way out of touch with their voters. And I'm not sure that they are.
Tawts.
Sorry, you have helped to do a lot of damage to the working class communities you pretend to care about. And even now you clearly don't notice the estates that criss-cross your part of London and which are plagued by the violence your habit helped to foster.
) There you are wrong - there is a very real danger and expats as well as the many thousands more with second homes here are very aware of it. If you cannot see that a potential Leave vote produces this uncertainty then you haven't been following.
The day after the referendum it will just be back to business as usual... More integration, more sovereignty being lost, more attacks on UK interests, etc... But with the added twist that the EU zealots like Heseltine and Clarke and Mandelson (and Cameron and Osborne?) will feel emboldened to start pushing their pipe dreams of the Euro and the single army once again. Everything will be back on the table.
I think it would have been far, far better for eurosceptics if we'd never had this referendum (as I think Richard Nabavi warned years ago to be fair)
Oh well if the vote is close we have a hope of the tories electing a leaver and another referundum, but it looks like remain will win comprehensivley -57-43%. Meaning the issue will be put to bed in the "mainstream" for atleast a decade. Even if it's 55-45 to remain I can't see tory MP's banging on about Europe too soon after a defeat that has such a clear result.
Only 51-49 will mean another ref very soon.
The EU not only wants to unify, it needs to and it is not realistic to imagine that there is anything we can do about it. Forty years of failure to influence the direction of the EU will not change because we decided to stay.
On a related aside, I've the idea for a piece which I'll probably write in the last weekend of the campaign on a factor of that very topic which is looking like the dog that isn't barking (assuming that by that point it hasn't stirred).
But it makes no sense for either side to demand of the other that the vote will define a perpetual settlement. 1975 didn't, and nor has any of the general elections at which one or more parties advocated withdrawal and were defeated.
I doubt I'd bother to turn out.
Trump now at 3.2
I am a soft remainer - but don't see this as some existential crisis with the options on the ballot paper 'Eternal Serfdom' and 'Glorious Freedom, bereft of negative consequences' - but 'on balance, which is the better option now.
The EU is a bit of a mess, and their chances of improving it (and in ways advantageous to us) will be better if we remain.
And if all the horror stories routinely trotted out about 'What the EU has in store if we are foolish enough to vote Yes' turn out to be true, then we can elect a government that will take us out - they won't even need a referendum to do it (though they may choose to hold one).
And we had visa-free access to Europe pre-1973 and we will have it after.
This is sheer propaganda.
"Whilst I think this is a very reasonable position to take overall I also have to say that it is, in parts, utterly unrealistic.
It appears to be based on the premise that the EU can be changed in a way that will suit the UK and, more importantly, will not change in ways which do not suit the UK.
It is also based on the idea that there was some substance to Cameron's negotiation and that we have some protections in place as a result.
Finally it suggests changes which are utterly counter to the fundamental rules and principles of the EU - particularly regarding the role of the ECJ.
I am afraid that the only choice to be made after a vote to Remain is either continuing the fight against the EU and pushing for Brexit by any democratic means possible or abject surrender to Ever Closer Union. The one thing we will not be able to do is influence the direction of an EU newly emboldened by a Remain vote."
Richard, don't get me wrong. I am voting and campaigning for Vote Leave because I am not a huge fan of the EU in its current form and I have lost a lot of faith in the reform from within strategy. But if Leave loses the referendum then Brexit supporters can either carp from the sidelines as though the referendum never happened or we can box clever. We redouble efforts for reform from within with the increased information and public awareness about the EU as a boost for our side; and we are now in a stronger position of knowing that being anti-EU is not a position held by those described as 'crazy right-wingers'; this is a huge perception change. We also will know where our case was weak and seek to rectify that.
So while I am of the view that reform from within is difficult, there will be some additional opportunities going forwards. Finally, this is not either/or; I will seek reform from within knowing that it has potential limitation as an approach, but it is the most viable approach for now. A further referendum or a government winning an election with a manifesto commitment to leave may come in the future; I am not sure under what conditions; but neither are likely in the short term.
Big Business and all the tax avoiding corporations (currently playing their part in REMAIN) need a shake as well... No chance Google, Amazon and all the rest would ever be brought to heel with the Tories and the Posh Boys. They just send HMRC to chase the working man and small business owners to their graves (while allowing the corporations to do whatever the hell they like)
If nothing else that would change under Corbyn.
FWIW, I think Susana Martinez would be an excellent pick for Trump but that assumes that she'd want to serve with him and him with her.
Vote Khan for change !!
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/tube-strike-2016-union-members-to-stage-further-walkouts-before-night-tube-launch-a3255536.html
I must say I thought that removing these automatic reciprocal rights was precisely the intention of the Leavers, so it's a bit odd that they seem to be saying it's scaremongering.
From the mob's point of view, Trump is clearly the favoured candidate.
I don't think this will harm Trump much. He's a thuggish-mannered billionaire. One doesn't even need to know that a large part of his fortune has been made in construction projects in New York and in property management, hospitality, golf clubs, hotels and casinos. I mean seriously, what do people expect?
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-veepstakes-part-two-trumps-temptation/
Choosing a woman is such a no-brainer that personally I'd concentrate on them for betting purposes. I mentioned Shelley Moore Capito as one possible contender; Trump has explicitly and very sensibly said that he needs wants someone with Washington experience, which I think tends to point away from some of the other names that have been mentioned.