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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Perhaps Leave really are going to win this referendum

SystemSystem Posts: 12,267
edited May 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Perhaps Leave really are going to win this referendum

Earlier on this year I spoke to someone who works in the polling industry, they ruefully observed that the 2015 general election opinion polls accurately predicted the Tory victory, so long as you ignored the headline voting intention figures and focussed on the supplementaries, and I’m starting to wonder if we might be seeing a similar situation with this EU referendum, where whatever the…

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Comments

  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    edited May 2016
    First- Whatever happens in the Referendum, it looks as though Cameron has sunk himself, along with Osborne, Boris, Zak, IDS and others. And the Tory Party generally. This can only be a Good Thing, from the point of view of the country.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    An EU army is a dangerous fantasy according to Eurofanatic Nick Clegg. Meanwhile the EU army conducts training exercises in the UK:

    "However much this is dressed up as 'business as usual' for Britain's armed forces, it clearly isn't,” said UK National Defence Association ceo Andy Smith.

    “ This is not a UK or NATO military exercise, it's a European Union military exercise on British soil, and that should send shudders down the spine of every Briton.

    “We are seeing armoured vehicles on Salisbury Plain emblazoned with the EU flag, and, worse still, we know that the orders for this exercise are being given not by anyone in the UK, either military or political, but by the European 'High Representative for Security', an Italian. It is very clearly the next stage in the creation of an EU army, which we know Angela Merkel has forced David Cameron to accept, but about which there is still an official silence.”

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/672561/EU-army-proof-troops-soldiers-Nato-Brussels-war-games-Salisbury-Plain
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Plague of boils on the way, followed by plagues of frogs, locuests, and slaughter of first born. I see that Corbyn has had another marketing disaster - Dear First Name and that Cameron thinks over half his party have become fruitcakes or nutters.

    Perhaps a market should be up for when Cameron calls Pickfords.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    dr_spyn said:

    Plague of boils on the way, followed by plagues of frogs, locuests, and slaughter of first born. I see that Corbyn has had another marketing disaster - Dear First Name and that Cameron thinks over half his party have become fruitcakes or nutters.

    Perhaps a market should be up for when Cameron calls Pickfords.

    If he's going, I wonder if he'll jack it in as an MP and go off and make serious money like his mentor.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,389
    'David Cameron who is fronting the Remain campaign is now seen as the least distrusted UK politician on EU matters'

    Most distrusted?
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Interesting aricle TSE, which bears out my contention that we don't know what is going to happen in the referendum.

    We do know there is going to be a recession though at some point which will obviously be because of something which suites the prejudices of the accuser.

    I wonder though what would our government say if we vote to remain and there is a massive recession anyway?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Theuniondivvie said:

    'David Cameron who is fronting the Remain campaign is now seen as the least distrusted UK politician on EU matters'

    Most distrusted?

    Well done on my spotting my deliberate mistake. Ahem.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    BenedictWhite said:

    Interesting aricle TSE, which bears out my contention that we don't know what is going to happen in the referendum.

    We do know there is going to be a recession though at some point which will obviously be because of something which suites the prejudices of the accuser.

    I wonder though what would our government say if we vote to remain and there is a massive recession anyway?

    I did a thread on it a few weeks ago. If it is mild, not an issue per se. People know we have cyclical recessions and are due one.

    George Osborne hasn't been boasting he abolished boom and bust, and has been warning of threats to the UK economy for several months.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    FPT
    Good afternoon all.

    @logical_song said:


    Yes, but there was the Iraq war and he was pursuing pretty much Tory policies. So you can see why Labour members dislike him. What's the Tory reason for disliking Cameron, is it just Europe or is there something else?

    It's just that Cameron is a day to day BAREFACED LIAR. He can't help it, it's in the blood. He lies every day. Almost daily he contradicts himself. Most of the Tory Party are absolutely sick of it: except perhaps JackW and TSE.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    REMAIN 58% - LEAVE 42%
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Alanbrooke said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Plague of boils on the way, followed by plagues of frogs, locuests, and slaughter of first born. I see that Corbyn has had another marketing disaster - Dear First Name and that Cameron thinks over half his party have become fruitcakes or nutters.

    Perhaps a market should be up for when Cameron calls Pickfords.

    If he's going, I wonder if he'll jack it in as an MP and go off and make serious money like his mentor.
    I would have thought that is almost certain. Can't see him returning to the back benches.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Plague of boils on the way, followed by plagues of frogs, locuests, and slaughter of first born. I see that Corbyn has had another marketing disaster - Dear First Name and that Cameron thinks over half his party have become fruitcakes or nutters.

    Perhaps a market should be up for when Cameron calls Pickfords.

    If he's going, I wonder if he'll jack it in as an MP and go off and make serious money like his mentor.
    I would have thought that is almost certain. Can't see him returning to the back benches.
    Unless in the shape of a Lord.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Plague of boils on the way, followed by plagues of frogs, locuests, and slaughter of first born. I see that Corbyn has had another marketing disaster - Dear First Name and that Cameron thinks over half his party have become fruitcakes or nutters.

    Perhaps a market should be up for when Cameron calls Pickfords.

    If he's going, I wonder if he'll jack it in as an MP and go off and make serious money like his mentor.
    I would have thought that is almost certain. Can't see him returning to the back benches.
    Next President of the EU, there's also vacancy for Secretary-General of the UN
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    Interesting aricle TSE, which bears out my contention that we don't know what is going to happen in the referendum.

    We do know there is going to be a recession though at some point which will obviously be because of something which suites the prejudices of the accuser.

    I wonder though what would our government say if we vote to remain and there is a massive recession anyway?

    I did a thread on it a few weeks ago. If it is mild, not an issue per se. People know we have cyclical recessions and are due one.

    George Osborne hasn't been boasting he abolished boom and bust, and has been warning of threats to the UK economy for several months.
    and has done sod all about them
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Plague of boils on the way, followed by plagues of frogs, locuests, and slaughter of first born. I see that Corbyn has had another marketing disaster - Dear First Name and that Cameron thinks over half his party have become fruitcakes or nutters.

    Perhaps a market should be up for when Cameron calls Pickfords.

    If he's going, I wonder if he'll jack it in as an MP and go off and make serious money like his mentor.
    I would have thought that is almost certain. Can't see him returning to the back benches.
    Next President of the EU, there's also vacancy for Secretary-General of the UN
    The first is possible but Blair would still be interested. The Sec Gen post cannot go to a Security Council member.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Plague of boils on the way, followed by plagues of frogs, locuests, and slaughter of first born. I see that Corbyn has had another marketing disaster - Dear First Name and that Cameron thinks over half his party have become fruitcakes or nutters.

    Perhaps a market should be up for when Cameron calls Pickfords.

    If he's going, I wonder if he'll jack it in as an MP and go off and make serious money like his mentor.
    I would have thought that is almost certain. Can't see him returning to the back benches.
    Next President of the EU, there's also vacancy for Secretary-General of the UN
    Perfect opportunity for Cameron to wear his EU cufflinks on a daily basis.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    MP_SE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Plague of boils on the way, followed by plagues of frogs, locuests, and slaughter of first born. I see that Corbyn has had another marketing disaster - Dear First Name and that Cameron thinks over half his party have become fruitcakes or nutters.

    Perhaps a market should be up for when Cameron calls Pickfords.

    If he's going, I wonder if he'll jack it in as an MP and go off and make serious money like his mentor.
    I would have thought that is almost certain. Can't see him returning to the back benches.
    Next President of the EU, there's also vacancy for Secretary-General of the UN
    Perfect opportunity for Cameron to wear his EU cufflinks on a daily basis.
    MP_SE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Plague of boils on the way, followed by plagues of frogs, locuests, and slaughter of first born. I see that Corbyn has had another marketing disaster - Dear First Name and that Cameron thinks over half his party have become fruitcakes or nutters.

    Perhaps a market should be up for when Cameron calls Pickfords.

    If he's going, I wonder if he'll jack it in as an MP and go off and make serious money like his mentor.
    I would have thought that is almost certain. Can't see him returning to the back benches.
    Next President of the EU, there's also vacancy for Secretary-General of the UN
    Perfect opportunity for Cameron to wear his EU cufflinks on a daily basis.
    Nah, presidency always goes to small countries who front what Germany and France tell them to do.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @davieclegg: BREAKING: Stewart Hosie to step down as SNP deputy leader.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2016
    I would love to see The Donald triumph in November but this sure looks like the proverbial Man on a White Horse:
    https://twitter.com/drapermark37/status/734384656422817792
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    “They are idiots,” said one new MP. “It has brought a collective stain on our reputations because we came down here saying that we would do things differently and now people can say we are no better than the rest of them. The old guard have let us down.”

    It is the latest in a series of scandals and controversies that have engulfed up to a dozen SNP MPs in the year since the general election.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/focus/dogged-by-scandal-scotlands-different-party-reverts-to-westminster-type-630b9fkrp
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Alanbrooke said:

    MP_SE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Plague of boils on the way, followed by plagues of frogs, locuests, and slaughter of first born. I see that Corbyn has had another marketing disaster - Dear First Name and that Cameron thinks over half his party have become fruitcakes or nutters.

    Perhaps a market should be up for when Cameron calls Pickfords.

    If he's going, I wonder if he'll jack it in as an MP and go off and make serious money like his mentor.
    I would have thought that is almost certain. Can't see him returning to the back benches.
    Next President of the EU, there's also vacancy for Secretary-General of the UN
    Perfect opportunity for Cameron to wear his EU cufflinks on a daily basis.
    MP_SE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Plague of boils on the way, followed by plagues of frogs, locuests, and slaughter of first born. I see that Corbyn has had another marketing disaster - Dear First Name and that Cameron thinks over half his party have become fruitcakes or nutters.

    Perhaps a market should be up for when Cameron calls Pickfords.

    If he's going, I wonder if he'll jack it in as an MP and go off and make serious money like his mentor.
    I would have thought that is almost certain. Can't see him returning to the back benches.
    Next President of the EU, there's also vacancy for Secretary-General of the UN
    Perfect opportunity for Cameron to wear his EU cufflinks on a daily basis.
    Nah, presidency always goes to small countries who front what Germany and France tell them to do.
    So? ;)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    THE new Finance Secretary is at the centre of a cronyism row after using his parliamentary expenses to steer hundreds of pounds to an SNP colleague.

    Derek Mackay billed taxpayers almost £700 last July for work with Craig Mackay Design.

    Parliamentary records show the Renfrewshire North & West MSP charged the public purse £680 for the “design and printing of parliamentary surgery cards x 20,000” by the firm.

    The one-man business is run by former SNP councillor Craig Mackay from his home in Troon, where he is also the local SNP organiser.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14508760.New_SNP_Finance_Secretary_in__cronyism__row/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @C_KAndrews: .@StewartHosieSNP letter to @NicolaSturgeon confirming his intention to stand down as @theSNP deputy leader. https://t.co/hyhSHPgr5B
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    Scott_P said:

    @C_KAndrews: .@StewartHosieSNP letter to @NicolaSturgeon confirming his intention to stand down as @theSNP deputy leader. https://t.co/hyhSHPgr5B

    That's a tweet about the Tories being an omnishambles - right ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Early Christmas?

    @euanmccolm: wishart for deputy.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    edited May 2016
    MP_SE said:

    An EU army is a dangerous fantasy according to Eurofanatic Nick Clegg. Meanwhile the EU army conducts training exercises in the UK:

    "However much this is dressed up as 'business as usual' for Britain's armed forces, it clearly isn't,” said UK National Defence Association ceo Andy Smith.

    “ This is not a UK or NATO military exercise, it's a European Union military exercise on British soil, and that should send shudders down the spine of every Briton.

    “We are seeing armoured vehicles on Salisbury Plain emblazoned with the EU flag, and, worse still, we know that the orders for this exercise are being given not by anyone in the UK, either military or political, but by the European 'High Representative for Security', an Italian. It is very clearly the next stage in the creation of an EU army, which we know Angela Merkel has forced David Cameron to accept, but about which there is still an official silence.”

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/672561/EU-army-proof-troops-soldiers-Nato-Brussels-war-games-Salisbury-Plain

    When the day comes that British blood is spilled in some mad EU backed military adventure I wonder whether we'll be able to hold Cameron and Osborne to account (one thing you can guarantee is that it won't be their children's blood being spilled...)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    I don't think anything you've written contadicts the possibility of a large Remain win if that's what the polls say. People are very risk averse and nothing you've said lessens that. The only crumb of comfort is point 6 but if the polls haven't factored that in they might as well have a full lobotomy and go and write for the Sun.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/733583944092815360
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Absolutely gutted about Hosie...

    Who is going to woo me now?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Scott_P said:

    @davieclegg: BREAKING: Stewart Hosie to step down as SNP deputy leader.

    Excellent news. A particularly nasty piece of work.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @oldscotbooks: @euanmccolm Hosie resigns to spend less time with his family.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited May 2016
    @euanmccolm: hosie wrote that health concerns were key to his decision. in the reply issued by the snp, sturgeon doesn't even mention his health.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    MP_SE said:

    An EU army is a dangerous fantasy according to Eurofanatic Nick Clegg. Meanwhile the EU army conducts training exercises in the UK:

    "However much this is dressed up as 'business as usual' for Britain's armed forces, it clearly isn't,” said UK National Defence Association ceo Andy Smith.

    “ This is not a UK or NATO military exercise, it's a European Union military exercise on British soil, and that should send shudders down the spine of every Briton.

    “We are seeing armoured vehicles on Salisbury Plain emblazoned with the EU flag, and, worse still, we know that the orders for this exercise are being given not by anyone in the UK, either military or political, but by the European 'High Representative for Security', an Italian. It is very clearly the next stage in the creation of an EU army, which we know Angela Merkel has forced David Cameron to accept, but about which there is still an official silence.”

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/672561/EU-army-proof-troops-soldiers-Nato-Brussels-war-games-Salisbury-Plain

    It's most entertaining - it's in the Times as well. Desperate, nitpicking handwaving by Remainers trying to rubbish it. Surely, they'd be in favour of it given that WW3 is imminent following Brexit.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited May 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @oldscotbooks: @euanmccolm Hosie resigns to spend less time with his family.

    Do we know how his family feel about that? You shouldn't kick a man when he's down-except for Hosie
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The vacancy for SNP deputy leader has an obvious candidate waiting in the wings.

    Step forward, Alex Salmond, this may be his moment to come to the rescue of the party...
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    dr_spyn said:

    Plague of boils on the way, followed by plagues of frogs, locuests, and slaughter of first born. I see that Corbyn has had another marketing disaster - Dear First Name and that Cameron thinks over half his party have become fruitcakes or nutters.

    Perhaps a market should be up for when Cameron calls Pickfords.

    Oh dear - got a linky?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/mattchorley/status/734378697675964416
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited May 2016
    MikeK said:

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/733583944092815360

    Amazing and yet France has the most tourists of any country in the world. They must visit a different street
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/mattchorley/status/734378697675964416

    Ok this one is - Lying Tory basatards ? Yes ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @euanmccolm: yesterday...
    hi stewart, it's nicola. i'm just calling to thank you for the letter.
    what letter?
    the one you're sending me tomorrow.

    Opening scenes of The Thick of It come to mind
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    BenedictWhite said:

    Interesting aricle TSE, which bears out my contention that we don't know what is going to happen in the referendum.

    We do know there is going to be a recession though at some point which will obviously be because of something which suites the prejudices of the accuser.

    I wonder though what would our government say if we vote to remain and there is a massive recession anyway?

    That it's the fault of the Leavers because they caused uncertainty etc...

    A lot of bollocks is written about uncertainty. Uncertainty is the default state. The real issue is confidence in the ability to deal with uncertainty. Alas, not enough hay was made while the sun was shining.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    Interesting aricle TSE, which bears out my contention that we don't know what is going to happen in the referendum.

    We do know there is going to be a recession though at some point which will obviously be because of something which suites the prejudices of the accuser.

    I wonder though what would our government say if we vote to remain and there is a massive recession anyway?

    I did a thread on it a few weeks ago. If it is mild, not an issue per se. People know we have cyclical recessions and are due one.

    George Osborne hasn't been boasting he abolished boom and bust, and has been warning of threats to the UK economy for several months.
    Well, yes, but the problem here is that he's almost said the process of a referendum is bad for business which by implication means he thinks Cameron got it wrong.

    If we do remain, get a recession, bail out Greece and then get many of the fantasy things which were never going to come to pass (an EU army for example) I can see there being "issues" long in to the future.

    Also if remain do win I think it will feel to the leavers not to have been on the merits of the arguments but on the level of fear mongering. That will leave the argument as unfinished business and will leave the Conservative party hopelessly divided unless the leavers bugger off to UKIP. After all the SNP have been completely crushed north of the border haven't they?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    Credit where credit's due for publishing this TSE.

    An interesting thesis.

    I don't think it's over yet, and it could still be close.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited May 2016
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/mattchorley/status/734378697675964416

    They want to be saved from themselves. Hallelujah!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Alanbrooke said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/mattchorley/status/734378697675964416

    Ok this one is - Lying Tory basatards ? Yes ?
    Lol
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    test
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited May 2016
    Any rubbishing of Leavers is trumped everytime by Cameron's own words

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6JsrxXhCEc
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    Tykejohnno said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/mattchorley/status/734378697675964416

    Ok this one is - Lying Tory basatards ? Yes ?
    Lol
    TJ with four weeks to go we need a prize for

    "Scott Paster's best foot blast"
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    MTimT said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    Interesting aricle TSE, which bears out my contention that we don't know what is going to happen in the referendum.

    We do know there is going to be a recession though at some point which will obviously be because of something which suites the prejudices of the accuser.

    I wonder though what would our government say if we vote to remain and there is a massive recession anyway?

    That it's the fault of the Leavers because they caused uncertainty etc...

    A lot of bollocks is written about uncertainty. Uncertainty is the default state. The real issue is confidence in the ability to deal with uncertainty. Alas, not enough hay was made while the sun was shining.
    the only certainty is uncertainty. Uncertainty and death. The only certainties are uncertanties, death and taxes...

    Still true though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    MP_SE said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Plague of boils on the way, followed by plagues of frogs, locuests, and slaughter of first born. I see that Corbyn has had another marketing disaster - Dear First Name and that Cameron thinks over half his party have become fruitcakes or nutters.

    Perhaps a market should be up for when Cameron calls Pickfords.

    If he's going, I wonder if he'll jack it in as an MP and go off and make serious money like his mentor.
    I would have thought that is almost certain. Can't see him returning to the back benches.
    Next President of the EU, there's also vacancy for Secretary-General of the UN
    Perfect opportunity for Cameron to wear his EU cufflinks on a daily basis.
    I ignored that, and explained it away, when I first read about it.

    I should of paid closer attention.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MTimT said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    Interesting aricle TSE, which bears out my contention that we don't know what is going to happen in the referendum.

    We do know there is going to be a recession though at some point which will obviously be because of something which suites the prejudices of the accuser.

    I wonder though what would our government say if we vote to remain and there is a massive recession anyway?

    That it's the fault of the Leavers because they caused uncertainty etc...

    A lot of bollocks is written about uncertainty. Uncertainty is the default state. The real issue is confidence in the ability to deal with uncertainty. Alas, not enough hay was made while the sun was shining.
    There is a lot of uncertainty if we remain - basically how far and how fast will the EU push their 'ever closer union? - will the Euro collapse (and the Eurozone with it) - how much MORE will the UK have to contribute as the economy 'powers ahead' of the rest of the EU? Last year if you remember we had to cough up £1.7 billion. I know Mr Cameron said 'over my dead body' but regrettably he did not oblige.

    The worst thing about the EU is that the contributions are based on TURNOVER i.e. SIZE of the economy and NOT on Profits. The UK PLC has a £60 billion shortfall in Government expenditure and a balance of payments deficit of £96. billion.

    Now Germany is running a surplus in both balance of payments and government finances - so can afford to contribute to the EU.

    But how many of those 'captains of industry' would like to be taxed on turnover rather than profits - which we are?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,411
    "Perhaps LEAVE are really going to win"

    That's the spirit, TSE! :)
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    weejonnie said:

    MTimT said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    Interesting aricle TSE, which bears out my contention that we don't know what is going to happen in the referendum.

    We do know there is going to be a recession though at some point which will obviously be because of something which suites the prejudices of the accuser.

    I wonder though what would our government say if we vote to remain and there is a massive recession anyway?

    That it's the fault of the Leavers because they caused uncertainty etc...

    A lot of bollocks is written about uncertainty. Uncertainty is the default state. The real issue is confidence in the ability to deal with uncertainty. Alas, not enough hay was made while the sun was shining.
    There is a lot of uncertainty if we remain - basically how far and how fast will the EU push their 'ever closer union? - will the Euro collapse (and the Eurozone with it) - how much MORE will the UK have to contribute as the economy 'powers ahead' of the rest of the EU? Last year if you remember we had to cough up £1.7 billion. I know Mr Cameron said 'over my dead body' but regrettably he did not oblige.

    The worst thing about the EU is that the contributions are based on TURNOVER i.e. SIZE of the economy and NOT on Profits. The UK PLC has a £60 billion shortfall in Government expenditure and a balance of payments deficit of £96. billion.

    Now Germany is running a surplus in both balance of payments and government finances - so can afford to contribute to the EU.

    But how many of those 'captains of industry' would like to be taxed on turnover rather than profits - which we are?
    It's the whole 'Would you join the EU now? If not, why does even more of the same appeal to you?'
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    Plato_Says said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Plague of boils on the way, followed by plagues of frogs, locuests, and slaughter of first born. I see that Corbyn has had another marketing disaster - Dear First Name and that Cameron thinks over half his party have become fruitcakes or nutters.

    Perhaps a market should be up for when Cameron calls Pickfords.

    Oh dear - got a linky?
    Purdah rules kick in on Friday.

    In theory, it should prevent public bodies publishing any "promotional material" arguing for or against any particular outcome or referring to any of the issues involved in the referendum. But I don't think it precludes ministers from issuing press notices or responding to specific requests for information from members of the public, and I suspect the Remain campaign will be providing a fair few of those requests.

    So, it will be interesting to see what extent that affects the choreography. Personally, I think HMG and Remain have coordinated a nice grid from Friday 27th May to Thursday 23rd June from 3rd parties to do their work for them, including the IMF, for one.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Alanbrooke said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/mattchorley/status/734378697675964416

    Ok this one is - Lying Tory basatards ? Yes ?
    Lol
    TJ with four weeks to go we need a prize for

    "Scott Paster's best foot blast"
    Surely Scott can't be a Tory cheerleader,all I've learned from his post are Tory splits and Tory lying bastards ;-)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    Tykejohnno said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/mattchorley/status/734378697675964416

    Ok this one is - Lying Tory basatards ? Yes ?
    Lol
    TJ with four weeks to go we need a prize for

    "Scott Paster's best foot blast"
    Surely Scott can't be a Tory cheerleader,all I've learned from his post are Tory splits and Tory lying bastards ;-)
    I think he's a closet kipper.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,411
    Alanbrooke said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/mattchorley/status/734378697675964416

    Ok this one is - Lying Tory basatards ? Yes ?
    Lol
    TJ with four weeks to go we need a prize for

    "Scott Paster's best foot blast"
    Surely Scott can't be a Tory cheerleader,all I've learned from his post are Tory splits and Tory lying bastards ;-)
    I think he's a closet kipper.
    Closet Nat, surely?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,765
    edited May 2016
    Cameron's the PM. Of course no one trusts him; that's what PM's are for! But whether everyone's going to vote Leave just to spite him is a different matter entirely. As for immigration... I know Leave thinks this is their killer issue, but has anyone actually asked about the type of immigrant that irks people? I'll be blunt. If voters are primarily concerned about immigrants from Ungabunga Land and aren't too bothered about the Caucasian Christian ones then the supposed paradox disappears.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    MikeK said:

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/733583944092815360

    Blimey, don't French cops carry guns?
    I doubt they'd have to shoot more than a few to get the others to scatter.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    Maybe, though in the local elections the biggest gainers were the LDs and they are the most pro-EU party of all!
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    A very good article TSE.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    If voters are primarily concerned about immigrants from Ungabunga Land and aren't too bothered about the Caucasian Christian ones then the supposed paradox disappears.

    Nope.

    Voters are perfectly happy with immigrants from Ungabunga land if they are doctors, plumbers, teachers or engineers from Ungabunga land.

    What they don't want is rapists, gangsters, people smugglers, dole cheats, fraudsters, health tourists or walking suicide bombers from Ungabunga land.

    Remain folk don;t see this distinction and the reason is they are normally wealthy enough not to have to bother with the latter.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    Whatever you think, the current price on Betfair for Leave is value.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    "Perhaps LEAVE are really going to win"

    That's the spirit, TSE! :)

    It's a mid-campaign wobble in a gaylord ponceyboots style.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JeremyCliffe: Austrian exit poll: far-right Norbert Hofer to win presidency with 50.2%.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    edited May 2016
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. K, I pity sensible Muslims. Every time the phrase 'Allahu Akbar' is on the news (or online clips) it seems to be thugs at best and ISIS at worst.

    Edited extra bit: on-topic, interesting, and Leave could yet win.

    That said, I'd be surprised. In both the recent referendum votes, the status quo won.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Cameron's the PM. Of course no one trusts him; that's what PM's are for! But whether everyone's going to vote Leave just to spite him is a different matter entirely. As for immigration... I know Leave thinks this is their killer issue, but has anyone actually asked about the type of immigrant that irks people? I'll be blunt. If voters are primarily concerned about immigrants from Ungabunga Land and aren't too bothered about the Caucasian Christian ones then the supposed paradox disappears.

    There not that bothered about immigrants from Africa because:

    1. There are not that many of them.

    2. They speak English.

    They are bothered about a large number of eastern Europeans who may or may not speak English. Or haven't you heard of Gillian Duffy?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    taffys said:

    If voters are primarily concerned about immigrants from Ungabunga Land and aren't too bothered about the Caucasian Christian ones then the supposed paradox disappears.

    Nope.

    Voters are perfectly happy with immigrants from Ungabunga land if they are doctors, plumbers, teachers or engineers from Ungabunga land.

    What they don't want is rapists, gangsters, people smugglers, dole cheats, fraudsters, health tourists or walking suicide bombers from Ungabunga land.

    Remain folk don;t see this distinction and the reason is they are normally wealthy enough not to have to bother with the latter.

    Good post.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    taffys said:

    If voters are primarily concerned about immigrants from Ungabunga Land and aren't too bothered about the Caucasian Christian ones then the supposed paradox disappears.

    Nope.

    Voters are perfectly happy with immigrants from Ungabunga land if they are doctors, plumbers, teachers or engineers from Ungabunga land.

    What they don't want is rapists, gangsters, people smugglers, dole cheats, fraudsters, health tourists or walking suicide bombers from Ungabunga land.

    Remain folk don;t see this distinction and the reason is they are normally wealthy enough not to have to bother with the latter.

    Exactly. I'd add the bin-liner clad sub-class, FGM, homophobic, and anti-Semites.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Scott_P said:

    @JeremyCliffe: Austrian exit poll: far-right Norbert Hofer to win presidency with 50.2%.

    Will anything happen? I;ve read the Austrian President doesn;t really have that much power.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    Scott_P said:

    @JeremyCliffe: Austrian exit poll: far-right Norbert Hofer to win presidency with 50.2%.

    Wow.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    Ahead but "too close to call":

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36353200
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    taffys said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JeremyCliffe: Austrian exit poll: far-right Norbert Hofer to win presidency with 50.2%.

    Will anything happen? I;ve read the Austrian President doesn;t really have that much power.
    To date they've chosen not to exercise their powers as it was all part of the cosy consensus of the big two parties. But both last round candidates have pointed out the presidency has more powers than people think and they intended to use them
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    On immigration, Voters are like football fans. They don;t care where the F the person comes from, what colour/religion/race he is, as long as he gives 110% , doesn;t get sent off too often and turns up to sign autographs at the local children's hospital every now and then.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    taffys said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JeremyCliffe: Austrian exit poll: far-right Norbert Hofer to win presidency with 50.2%.

    Will anything happen? I;ve read the Austrian President doesn;t really have that much power.
    Dunno. Anschluss?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    Casino_Royale said:

    Ahead but "too close to call":

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36353200

    If Hofer gets in he should thank Merkel
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Scott_P said:

    @C_KAndrews: .@StewartHosieSNP letter to @NicolaSturgeon confirming his intention to stand down as @theSNP deputy leader. https://t.co/hyhSHPgr5B

    To spend more time with the second family?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,765
    BenedictWhite said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Cameron's the PM. Of course no one trusts him; that's what PM's are for! But whether everyone's going to vote Leave just to spite him is a different matter entirely. As for immigration... I know Leave thinks this is their killer issue, but has anyone actually asked about the type of immigrant that irks people? I'll be blunt. If voters are primarily concerned about immigrants from Ungabunga Land and aren't too bothered about the Caucasian Christian ones then the supposed paradox disappears.

    There not that bothered about immigrants from Africa because:

    1. There are not that many of them.

    2. They speak English.

    They are bothered about a large number of eastern Europeans who may or may not speak English. Or haven't you heard of Gillian Duffy?
    I've never encountered a European in this country who isn't fluent in the English language. Perhaps you have, but I suspect my experience is widely shared. What are the three things that have got people most up in arms about immigration in recent years? I'd propose: 1) Race riots 2) Home-grown terrorists 3) Child-abuse rings in northern England. Ironically, none of the above have anything to do with immigrants from continental Europe; it's the British Empire that is to blame. As I said - this could well account for the pro-EU but anti-immigration 'paradox'.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Read earlier that postal voters will only be counted tomorrow, so we'll probably have to wait until then to see who wins in Austria.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,790
    You will not read a better write-up of where things stand with the EU referendum campaign than this:

    http://www.iam-media.com/blog/Detail.aspx?g=2f7c805d-187c-4c33-a070-0af17bcd911f

    Whoever wrote it is a genius.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    If he wins TTIP might be off.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    ICYMI

    https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/734297654881091584
  • AnnaAnna Posts: 59
    I was at the Association of Corporate Treasurers annual conference this week. Brexit was one of the main debated issues, but the biggest uncertainty on most treasurers' minds is the Eurozone crisis and whether Greece will actually default.

    The ECB creating negative interest rates is causing big problems across the economy in Europe - one treasurer of a services company has drawn down a revolving credit facility from her bank and is being paid for having taken the loan (negative interest rate). The only problem is, she doesn't trust the solvency of pretty much any bank to put the cash on deposit with them.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    taffys said:

    On immigration, Voters are like football fans. They don;t care where the F the person comes from, what colour/religion/race he is, as long as he gives 110% , doesn;t get sent off too often and turns up to sign autographs at the local children's hospital every now and then.

    I've never seen an immigrant turn up to a children's hospital to sign autographs...

    Not saying they don't, just that I've not seen it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Welcome to pb.com, Miss Anna.

    If Greece were to default, is there a probable time frame, or would it come more or less out of the blue?
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Stark_Dawning said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Cameron's the PM. Of course no one trusts him; that's what PM's are for! But whether everyone's going to vote Leave just to spite him is a different matter entirely. As for immigration... I know Leave thinks this is their killer issue, but has anyone actually asked about the type of immigrant that irks people? I'll be blunt. If voters are primarily concerned about immigrants from Ungabunga Land and aren't too bothered about the Caucasian Christian ones then the supposed paradox disappears.

    There not that bothered about immigrants from Africa because:

    1. There are not that many of them.

    2. They speak English.

    They are bothered about a large number of eastern Europeans who may or may not speak English. Or haven't you heard of Gillian Duffy?
    I've never encountered a European in this country who isn't fluent in the English language. Perhaps you have, but I suspect my experience is widely shared. What are the three things that have got people most up in arms about immigration in recent years? I'd propose: 1) Race riots 2) Home-grown terrorists 3) Child-abuse rings in northern England. Ironically, none of the above have anything to do with immigrants from continental Europe; it's the British Empire that is to blame. As I said - this could well account for the pro-EU but anti-immigration 'paradox'.
    1. I have.

    2. They have come in large numbers.

    3. This does affect things like wages, schools etc.

    The points you make are about two subsets of immigrants. You don't get so much issues with immigrants from Africa who have a remarkably different attitude.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    O/T we could be set for a nice summer. Only if we vote Remain of course, otherwise months of rain and gales will beckon.
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-weather-capital-could-be-set-for-months-of-sweltering-temperatures-due-to-el-nino-phenomenon-a3254101.html
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,765
    Plato_Says said:

    taffys said:

    If voters are primarily concerned about immigrants from Ungabunga Land and aren't too bothered about the Caucasian Christian ones then the supposed paradox disappears.

    Nope.

    Voters are perfectly happy with immigrants from Ungabunga land if they are doctors, plumbers, teachers or engineers from Ungabunga land.

    What they don't want is rapists, gangsters, people smugglers, dole cheats, fraudsters, health tourists or walking suicide bombers from Ungabunga land.

    Remain folk don;t see this distinction and the reason is they are normally wealthy enough not to have to bother with the latter.

    Exactly. I'd add the bin-liner clad sub-class, FGM, homophobic, and anti-Semites.
    All of whom have nothing to do with EU membership. So why do Leavers think this is going to save them?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Anna said:

    I was at the Association of Corporate Treasurers annual conference this week. Brexit was one of the main debated issues, but the biggest uncertainty on most treasurers' minds is the Eurozone crisis and whether Greece will actually default.

    The ECB creating negative interest rates is causing big problems across the economy in Europe - one treasurer of a services company has drawn down a revolving credit facility from her bank and is being paid for having taken the loan (negative interest rate). The only problem is, she doesn't trust the solvency of pretty much any bank to put the cash on deposit with them.

    Outstanding post. More please!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Anna said:

    I was at the Association of Corporate Treasurers annual conference this week. Brexit was one of the main debated issues, but the biggest uncertainty on most treasurers' minds is the Eurozone crisis and whether Greece will actually default.

    The ECB creating negative interest rates is causing big problems across the economy in Europe - one treasurer of a services company has drawn down a revolving credit facility from her bank and is being paid for having taken the loan (negative interest rate). The only problem is, she doesn't trust the solvency of pretty much any bank to put the cash on deposit with them.

    Welcome Ms Anna, and very helpful first post.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,734
    NBC news poll

    Clinton 46 Trump 43
    Sanders 54 Trump 39

    'Trump and Clinton are currently the two most unpopular likely presidential nominees in the history of the NBC/WSJ poll.

    Thirty four percent of registered voters have a positive opinion of Clinton, versus 54 percent who have a negative opinion (-20) — a slight uptick from her minus-24 score last month.
    Trump’s rating is even worse than Clinton’s: Twenty nine percent have a positive opinion of him, while 58 percent have a negative opinion (-29) — an improvement from his minus-41 score in April.

    “This has never been matched, or even close to being matched,” Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, says of these negative ratings for Trump and Clinton.

    Forty Seven Percent Would Consider a Third-Party Candidate
    Asked if they would consider a third-party candidate if Clinton and Trump were the major party nominees, 47 percent of registered voters say yes — a higher percentage than those who said yes on a similar question in 2008 and 2012.'
    http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/clinton-s-lead-over-trump-shrinks-3-points-new-nbc-n577726
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,812
    All you people with mardy expressions on this fine Sunday afternoon.
    Here is something to cheer you up.
    Tom Hanks. Doing Talking Heads. Yay!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,790
    taffys said:

    If voters are primarily concerned about immigrants from Ungabunga Land and aren't too bothered about the Caucasian Christian ones then the supposed paradox disappears.

    Nope.

    Voters are perfectly happy with immigrants from Ungabunga land if they are doctors, plumbers, teachers or engineers from Ungabunga land.

    What they don't want is rapists, gangsters, people smugglers, dole cheats, fraudsters, health tourists or walking suicide bombers from Ungabunga land.

    Remain folk don;t see this distinction and the reason is they are normally wealthy enough not to have to bother with the latter.

    Wealthy people are not immune from rapists or suicide bombers. Their taxes are directly affected by health tourism and dole cheats.

    Given how tight the referendum polls are, there are clearly a lot of wealthy people in the UK.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/734406921751560192
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Plato_Says said:

    https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/734406921751560192

    So funny I had to retweet it! ;)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,411
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/734398381712388096
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,261
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/734398381712388096

    Believe in Greenland!

    Be GREEN!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    BenedictWhite said:

    taffys said:

    On immigration, Voters are like football fans. They don;t care where the F the person comes from, what colour/religion/race he is, as long as he gives 110% , doesn;t get sent off too often and turns up to sign autographs at the local children's hospital every now and then.

    I've never seen an immigrant turn up to a children's hospital to sign autographs...

    Not saying they don't, just that I've not seen it.
    Marcin Waselewski and Christian Fuchs were doing autographs in the Leicester Childrens hospital the other week. Very popular they were too.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,429
    Just when I thought some Leavers couldn't sink any lower

    A Brexit campaign backed by Nigel Farage targeted National Front supporters with adverts on Facebook.

    The white nationalists were among a range of political groups hit with paid-for advertising earlier this year on behalf of Leave.EU.

    The group's message showed a British bulldog chewing up the EU flag with the message: "Help us win our country back".

    Leave.EU said the far-right group, along with the BNP, EDL and Britain First, was chosen by an external agency which had been briefed to find people right across the political spectrum.

    But a campaign spokesman admitted the briefing was "perhaps naive" and said: "It was probably a mistake."

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-backed-brexit-group-8025489
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. K, I pity sensible Muslims. Every time the phrase 'Allahu Akbar' is on the news (or online clips) it seems to be thugs at best and ISIS at worst.

    Edited extra bit: on-topic, interesting, and Leave could yet win.

    That said, I'd be surprised. In both the recent referendum votes, the status quo won.

    As you well know, Mr Dancer, the status quo is not one of the options here!
This discussion has been closed.