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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,091

    Looking at Wales vote shares as opposed to set changes seem something like this:

    Constituency:
    Labour -7.6
    Conservative -3.9
    PC +1.2
    LD -2.9
    Ukip +12.5

    A very efficient vote distribution for Labour.
    It might also suggest that Labour loses two votes to UKIP in Wales to each Conservative vote lost to UKIP.
    Which would correspond to the 2015 results and would be reasonable when allowing for the traditional class based voting in Wales.
    Labour appear to be approaching a tipping point in Wales. They got away with it this time but the trend points to Labour losing power in Wales.
    Like Scotland but taking longer because of the weakness of PC.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,980

    Polruan said:

    AndyJS said:

    Peter Kellner — Labour making no progress in terms of share of the vote for London Assembly seats.

    But, but, but ... Jeremy Corbyn is a net positive for Labour in London :-)

    You mean you don't believe this increased turnout is all due to Jezza's new politics enthusing DNVs? I'm shocked, I tell you...

    I am actually really pleased Khan won in London. He ran a dignified, positive campaign, with loads of reach-out to parts of the electorate that have proved to be problematic for Labour. He showed how to do it by getting out of his comfort zone and engaging. There is plenty for the wider party to learn from the approach he took. And fair play to Corbyn for keeping well away.

    I swung towards him (and gave him a second preference after Berry) at the very last moment, having previously decided not to back either of the main candidates. In the end I felt he'd distanced himself from Corbyn sufficiently, and I was also impressed with the way he responded to Livingstone's comments.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2016
    Last night the BBC were saying Labour were up by 3 or 4 points compared to last year but now they're projecting Labour on 31% which is the same as last year. Not sure what caused the change.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mr. Richard is that related to the correspondingly lower desire for and credibility of independence for Wales?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Mr. Roger, you have been assimilated into the PBTory Collective.

    Resistance is futile.

    Is it true I have to sick a chorizo in my bum or is that just females?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mr. Roger, that's entirely optional.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047
    Anecdote alert. Looking through my facebook page a few people having been commenting on the election results. It doesn't fill me with confidence. Social media is not necessarily a great symbol of what people really think but there a few themes.
    1)Annoyance that Ukip have 7 AMs and an annoyance at the Welsh people who voted for them.
    2)Talking up of Labour's performance by one died in the wool supporter (in her 60s). No mention of course that the party's vote share was way down.
    3)Various dispatches on the positive things for Plaid/Greens/Lib Dems (Kirsty Williams anyway!).

    I suppose my friends are a relatively narrow subset of reasonably educated socially liberal types on the political left. But amongst the younger group there appears to be almost no interest in the Labour party - one or two people are pro-Corbyn the rest Green, Plaid or occasional Lib Dems. So where exactly could a revived non-Corbyn Labour party come from? A handful of millionaires who don't like the Tories?
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,091

    Mr. Richard is that related to the correspondingly lower desire for and credibility of independence for Wales?

    Partly and because their Welsh language enthusiasm hinders them among the non-Welsh speaking while their leftwingery hinders them among rural voters.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,091
    AndyJS said:


    Any views on the Tamworth results ?

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mr. Richard, cheers. Hadn't considered the Welsh language angle. Are they trying to make it the primary language of Wales?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Roger said:

    Mr. Roger, you have been assimilated into the PBTory Collective.

    Resistance is futile.

    Is it true I have to sick a chorizo in my bum or is that just females?
    Just females. For you, Roger, the pig's head awaits....
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    when is the by-election going to be then?
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    I think I can make a prediction we can all agree on. These elections will be long forgotten in a month's time.
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    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    It's good to see the PLP reluctantly offering increased unity and support for Corbyn... oh wait, why would you want to risk accidentally allowing news cycle to focus on an OK result in London when you can pile in with another negative headline?

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/06/jeremy-corbyn-leadership-labour-mps-elections
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:


    Any views on the Tamworth results ?

    Labour continuing to decline, losing seats to both Tories and UKIP.
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    chestnut said:

    BBC are running a graphic with Khan on 42.7 and Goldsmith on 36.5.

    After 12/14 of the constituencies have declared. Brent & Harrow and North East to come which will significantly increase Khan's lead.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,091
    There are many fewer Independents being re-elected as PCCs.

    I wonder if that's because the elections coincided with the locals and so had more vote-by-party voters.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,980
    Polruan said:

    It's good to see the PLP reluctantly offering increased unity and support for Corbyn... oh wait, why would you want to risk accidentally allowing news cycle to focus on an OK result in London when you can pile in with another negative headline?

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/06/jeremy-corbyn-leadership-labour-mps-elections

    I seem to remember that one of the strongest arguments for electing Corbyn as leader was the need to reclaim Scotland with some proper red-blooded socialism. How's that project going?
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,091
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:


    Any views on the Tamworth results ?

    Labour continuing to decline, losing seats to both Tories and UKIP.
    UKIP gained from the Conservatives as well and also gained a seat which the Conservatives would have expected to gain.

    I wonder how many people voted:

    2008 Con
    2012 Lab
    2016 UKIP
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047

    Polruan said:

    AndyJS said:

    Peter Kellner — Labour making no progress in terms of share of the vote for London Assembly seats.

    But, but, but ... Jeremy Corbyn is a net positive for Labour in London :-)

    You mean you don't believe this increased turnout is all due to Jezza's new politics enthusing DNVs? I'm shocked, I tell you...

    I am actually really pleased Khan won in London. He ran a dignified, positive campaign, with loads of reach-out to parts of the electorate that have proved to be problematic for Labour. He showed how to do it by getting out of his comfort zone and engaging. There is plenty for the wider party to learn from the approach he took. And fair play to Corbyn for keeping well away.

    I'm starting to feel slightly sorry for him. So far I'm hardly seeing any Labour supporters championing his victory after two successive defeats in the capital. Instead it's all about Zac Goldsmith being defeated after his divisive campaign. Perhaps they don't want to talk up someone seen as lukewarm at best towards the leader. And for new labour types perhaps they haven't forgiven him his closeness to Miliband and nominating Jezza.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A good result for Zac would be to get a million votes after preferences, which Ken Livingstone wasn't able to do last time.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So it seems that the 3 losses in Edinburgh did it for the SNP majority. As they got no list seats there every loss was critical.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,091

    Mr. Richard, cheers. Hadn't considered the Welsh language angle. Are they trying to make it the primary language of Wales?

    I fear you'll have to ask a Welsh PBer about Welsh language policy.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Roger said:

    Any Scots know how this lady managed to survive what is surely a step up from Naz Shah? Might this not provide a hostage to fortune when the numbers are so tight?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3316442/SNP-forced-apologise-race-hate-row.html

    Because she accidentally retweeted it and everyone who knows her accepted that explanation.
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    tlg86 said:

    I see that in Wales Labour nearly won a majority with the votes of just 15.7% of the electorate. :D

    Any day now we will have huge protests though Cardiff with placards about 15.7%.

    Err.... or does Charlotte Church et al, not see it as a problem when 'their' side win on a minority.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,091
    Alistair said:

    So it seems that the 3 losses in Edinburgh did it for the SNP majority. As they got no list seats there every loss was critical.

    And each Edinburgh loss was to a different party.

    Are there reasons for the SNP Edinburgh debacle ?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    Hillary's outreach campaign translates Donald Trump into Spanish for him.

    https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/728571410763939840
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    AndyJS said:


    Any views on the Tamworth results ?

    Not all pigs are equal?
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Alistair said:

    So it seems that the 3 losses in Edinburgh did it for the SNP majority. As they got no list seats there every loss was critical.

    And each Edinburgh loss was to a different party.

    Are there reasons for the SNP Edinburgh debacle ?
    The above average intelligence of the electorate, mainly.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited May 2016

    Alistair said:

    So it seems that the 3 losses in Edinburgh did it for the SNP majority. As they got no list seats there every loss was critical.

    And each Edinburgh loss was to a different party.

    Are there reasons for the SNP Edinburgh debacle ?
    Edinburgh Central was the first term incumbent retiring plus the greens putting up a vanity candidate. Given the Con Maj was 610 if either of those things didn't happen then it's. SNP hold.

    The other two losses look like pin point antiSNP tactical voting.

    SnP vote went up in Edinburgh South but Lab vote surged.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047
    BigRich said:

    tlg86 said:

    I see that in Wales Labour nearly won a majority with the votes of just 15.7% of the electorate. :D

    Any day now we will have huge protests though Cardiff with placards about 15.7%.

    Err.... or does Charlotte Church et al, not see it as a problem when 'their' side win on a minority.
    Charlotte voted for Plaid Cymru. I'm not sure she's ever been that pro-Labour.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,010
    AndyJS said:

    Last night the BBC were saying Labour were up by 3 or 4 points compared to last year but now they're projecting Labour on 31% which is the same as last year. Not sure what caused the change.

    Projections based on last night's national voteshare for 2020 election

    BBC Tories 301, Lab 253, SNP 53, LD 19, UKIP 1
    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/728594117631029250

    Sky Tories 280, Lab 265, SNP 56, LD 25, UKIP 1
    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/728416019245600769
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    There are many fewer Independents being re-elected as PCCs.

    I wonder if that's because the elections coincided with the locals and so had more vote-by-party voters.

    Possibly, however I suspect that many have not bothered to stand this, 4 Years ago South Wilts had two Independent candidates stand, sadly none stood this year, also Prof Andreas mentioned that 3 of the Tory PCC gains were due to Independents retiring. – No matter how good a candidate they are, it must be disheartening for them to see the same red and blue rosettes win every time.
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    There are many fewer Independents being re-elected as PCCs.

    I wonder if that's because the elections coincided with the locals and so had more vote-by-party voters.

    I think it may have been an unintended consequence of more Lib dem, UKIP and green, candidates standing than last time.

    I suspect that last time a lot of the people who normally vote for one of these 2 party's, got to the poling place, and then realised that their party was not standing so decided to vote ind, as the next best thing. This time more candidates from these 3 party's = loss votes for ind.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky's projection was made last night when the BBC were saying Labour were up 3 or 4 points compared to 2015.
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Last night the BBC were saying Labour were up by 3 or 4 points compared to last year but now they're projecting Labour on 31% which is the same as last year. Not sure what caused the change.

    Projections based on last night's national voteshare for 2020 election

    BBC Tories 301, Lab 253, SNP 53, LD 19, UKIP 1
    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/728594117631029250

    Sky Tories 280, Lab 265, SNP 56, LD 25, UKIP 1
    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/728416019245600769
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,010
    AndyJS said:

    Sky's projection was made last night when the BBC were saying Labour were up 3 or 4 points compared to 2015.

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Last night the BBC were saying Labour were up by 3 or 4 points compared to last year but now they're projecting Labour on 31% which is the same as last year. Not sure what caused the change.

    Projections based on last night's national voteshare for 2020 election

    BBC Tories 301, Lab 253, SNP 53, LD 19, UKIP 1
    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/728594117631029250

    Sky Tories 280, Lab 265, SNP 56, LD 25, UKIP 1
    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/728416019245600769
    Take the BBC one then which was done this afternoon
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sky's projection was made last night when the BBC were saying Labour were up 3 or 4 points compared to 2015.

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Last night the BBC were saying Labour were up by 3 or 4 points compared to last year but now they're projecting Labour on 31% which is the same as last year. Not sure what caused the change.

    Projections based on last night's national voteshare for 2020 election

    BBC Tories 301, Lab 253, SNP 53, LD 19, UKIP 1
    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/728594117631029250

    Sky Tories 280, Lab 265, SNP 56, LD 25, UKIP 1
    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/728416019245600769
    Take the BBC one then which was done this afternoon
    I'd be interested to see an updated Sky projection.
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    BigRich said:

    tlg86 said:

    I see that in Wales Labour nearly won a majority with the votes of just 15.7% of the electorate. :D

    Any day now we will have huge protests though Cardiff with placards about 15.7%.

    Err.... or does Charlotte Church et al, not see it as a problem when 'their' side win on a minority.
    Charlotte voted for Plaid Cymru. I'm not sure she's ever been that pro-Labour.
    Yes, but she is defiantly anti Tory. I don't see her protesting at the Lab victory in Cardiff, that she did at the Torys in London,
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,010
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sky's projection was made last night when the BBC were saying Labour were up 3 or 4 points compared to 2015.

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Last night the BBC were saying Labour were up by 3 or 4 points compared to last year but now they're projecting Labour on 31% which is the same as last year. Not sure what caused the change.

    Projections based on last night's national voteshare for 2020 election

    BBC Tories 301, Lab 253, SNP 53, LD 19, UKIP 1
    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/728594117631029250

    Sky Tories 280, Lab 265, SNP 56, LD 25, UKIP 1
    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/728416019245600769
    Take the BBC one then which was done this afternoon
    I'd be interested to see an updated Sky projection.
    If it was done on the same figures, which presumably it would now be, there would be little difference
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Would the result in London have been very different in London if Boris had stood again?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Apparently the police are now investigating Ch 4's story about overspending. I can't be the only person who thinks this is a ridiculous waste of police time. They're talking about re running the election in several seats. The only good news is that Anna Soubry is one of them so Nick might get his seat back
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,115
    edited May 2016
    Alistair said:

    Roger said:

    Any Scots know how this lady managed to survive what is surely a step up from Naz Shah? Might this not provide a hostage to fortune when the numbers are so tight?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3316442/SNP-forced-apologise-race-hate-row.html

    Because she accidentally retweeted it and everyone who knows her accepted that explanation.
    She also won Glasgow Kelvin quite handsomely despite Patrick Harvie & the SLab candidate being mildly tipped up by media.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,980
    C4 News reporting that Anna Soubry is one of the 27 (I think) MPs potentially threatened by the new investigations into election expenses. Could there yet be a way back for our own Nick Palmer?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    edited May 2016
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Last night the BBC were saying Labour were up by 3 or 4 points compared to last year but now they're projecting Labour on 31% which is the same as last year. Not sure what caused the change.

    Projections based on last night's national voteshare for 2020 election

    BBC Tories 301, Lab 253, SNP 53, LD 19, UKIP 1

    Sky Tories 280, Lab 265, SNP 56, LD 25, UKIP 1
    Tory minority government supported by Nicola?
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,980
    BigRich said:

    Would the result in London have been very different in London if Boris had stood again?

    As has been noted elsewhere, I think this was more about Khan benefitting from not being Livingstone than Goldsmith losing support by not being Boris.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sky's projection was made last night when the BBC were saying Labour were up 3 or 4 points compared to 2015.

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Last night the BBC were saying Labour were up by 3 or 4 points compared to last year but now they're projecting Labour on 31% which is the same as last year. Not sure what caused the change.

    Projections based on last night's national voteshare for 2020 election

    BBC Tories 301, Lab 253, SNP 53, LD 19, UKIP 1
    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/728594117631029250

    Sky Tories 280, Lab 265, SNP 56, LD 25, UKIP 1
    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/728416019245600769
    Take the BBC one then which was done this afternoon
    I'd be interested to see an updated Sky projection.
    If it was done on the same figures, which presumably it would now be, there would be little difference
    Shows the danger of making a projection when only half the results have been declared.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited May 2016
    Yebbut, factor in swingback, and Labour will go backwards on 2015...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,010
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sky's projection was made last night when the BBC were saying Labour were up 3 or 4 points compared to 2015.

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Last night the BBC were saying Labour were up by 3 or 4 points compared to last year but now they're projecting Labour on 31% which is the same as last year. Not sure what caused the change.

    Projections based on last night's national voteshare for 2020 election

    BBC Tories 301, Lab 253, SNP 53, LD 19, UKIP 1
    https://twitter.com/kayaburgess/status/728594117631029250

    Sky Tories 280, Lab 265, SNP 56, LD 25, UKIP 1
    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/728416019245600769
    Take the BBC one then which was done this afternoon
    I'd be interested to see an updated Sky projection.
    If it was done on the same figures, which presumably it would now be, there would be little difference
    Shows the danger of making a projection when only half the results have been declared.
    As US networks discovered in Florida in 2000
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Channel 4 News — Tories would hold Derby North based on local election results. Their majority is only 41 votes.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,010

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Last night the BBC were saying Labour were up by 3 or 4 points compared to last year but now they're projecting Labour on 31% which is the same as last year. Not sure what caused the change.

    Projections based on last night's national voteshare for 2020 election

    BBC Tories 301, Lab 253, SNP 53, LD 19, UKIP 1

    Sky Tories 280, Lab 265, SNP 56, LD 25, UKIP 1
    Tory minority government supported by Nicola?
    The SNP won't support the Tories ever, especially as they are now their main opponents, Tory minority government backed by LDs, UKIP and DUP more likely
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Roger said:

    Apparently the police are now investigating Ch 4's story about overspending. I can't be the only person who thinks this is a ridiculous waste of police time. They're talking about re running the election in several seats. The only good news is that Anna Soubry is one of them so Nick might get his seat back

    Have to agree Rog. Seems ridiculous to me, I'm sure that the case will fall apart like so many CPS cases lately.
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    dyingswandyingswan Posts: 189
    Poor old Wales. It is just like battered wife syndrome.For a hundred years Labour has said:" I will be better in future. I promise. Trust me." Since 1919 Wales has believed it. There must now be over 30 all-Wales elections-GEs, Assembly and European in a century. In all but one- the Euros in 2009 at the height of the Brown Terror- Labour has finished top of the poll. It is so depressing.The Welsh people have low expectations. They are about to be fulfilled -again. The Labour government will drive down our standards in education,health and anything else that they can get their hands on. Then in 2020 they will say:"Sorry love didn't mean to hurt you. I will be better next time. Honest."
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Diane Abbott is beyond embarrassing. Everywhere she went yesterday campaigning for Khan the voters said to her "we want to win this for Jeremy"

    Sid and Doris
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Mr. Richard is that related to the correspondingly lower desire for and credibility of independence for Wales?

    Partly and because their Welsh language enthusiasm hinders them among the non-Welsh speaking while their leftwingery hinders them among rural voters.
    Nationalism here has always been more closely linked with the language than in Scotland. Gaelic speakers are under 2% in Scotland whereas Welsh is spoken by about 20% here and certainly not dying out. There are three Welsh medium high schools in Cardiff alone for instance. It's both a strength and a weakness in that it provides a bedrock of 3-5 seats (FPTP works well for them) in Cardiff and London based on areas broadly where Welsh is a majority language but hinders then in the S East ( in my view ).
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Looking forward to a meeting between Khan and Trump.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,115
    I see the 'Sir Lynton isn't actually involved with campaigns when they lose' line is being cast out again.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,303
    Sadiq Khan's election to the London mayor is a tribute to his ability to position himself as against association with terror and also Jeremy Corbyn. The conservative campaign was a disgrace (and I say that as a conservative party member) and the result was inevitable. As long as Kahn keeps his distance from Corbyn, continues with his insistence on the expulsion of Livingstone who I heard again today bring Hitler into discussion, and runs London in the interest of all he will be a success. Indeed one day he may even lead labour out of the wilderness. The other topical issue is that from tomorrow he will be a powerful voice for remain and now this weeks elections are over, Nicola Sturgeon, Leanne Wood and others will make their case for remain. It will be interesting to see if this week see's an end to the phoney war and the start of the referendum campaign proper. The government booklets will be circulated throughout Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland next week
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    I see the 'Sir Lynton isn't actually involved with campaigns when they lose' line is being cast out again.

    Too busy in Scotland to help Zac... ;)
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    EstobarEstobar Posts: 558

    I see the 'Sir Lynton isn't actually involved with campaigns when they lose' line is being cast out again.

    He was all over this campaign.

    And lost.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,115
    edited May 2016
    Thornberry: the Scottish campaign was very much run by the Scottish party.

    Positively Lyntonesque.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,010
    RodCrosby said:

    Yebbut, factor in swingback, and Labour will go backwards on 2015...

    The UKIP and SNP votes make a hung parliament likely in 2020, especially after EU ref
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    Sadiq Khan=44.2%, Zac Goldsmith=35% (after 1st preferences) - all 14 constituencies declared. Will go to second preferences...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    murali_s said:

    Sadiq Khan=44.2%, Zac Goldsmith=35% (after 1st preferences) - all 14 constituencies declared. Will go to second preferences...

    10 points behind.. dismal
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    Roger said:

    Diane Abbott is beyond embarrassing. Everywhere she went yesterday campaigning for Khan the voters said to her "we want to win this for Jeremy"

    Sid and Doris

    Agreed. Someone needs to put her out to pasture...
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    EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    Roger said:

    Apparently the police are now investigating Ch 4's story about overspending. I can't be the only person who thinks this is a ridiculous waste of police time. They're talking about re running the election in several seats. The only good news is that Anna Soubry is one of them so Nick might get his seat back

    That's not a very inspiring post for the future well-being of British democracy. You don't want potential criminal activity and corruption investigated?

    This isn't The House of Cards, you know.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,091
    AndyJS said:

    Channel 4 News — Tories would hold Derby North based on local election results. Their majority is only 41 votes.

    Big swing to the Conservatives in Derby North from 2015.

    Last year Labour were ahead by nearly 2000 votes at the local elections, this year the Conservatives lead by 300+.

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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Sheffield final figures Lab 57 LD 19 Green 4 UKIP 4
    LDems gain 2 from Labour
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    ThomasNashe..I hope not..there is nothing to commend NPXMPX2
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Sheffield final figures Lab 57 LD 19 Green 4 UKIP 4
    LDems gain 2 from Labour

    I'm in the process of calculating the popular vote shares using highest vote method.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2016
    So the final first round tally appears to be (based on BBC):

    Khan : 44.2% Goldsmith : 35% Turnout: 45.3%

    Last Year:

    Lab: 43.7% Con: 34.9%

    Zac 60k less than Boris 2012, Sadiq 250k more than Ken 2012.

    Greens, Lib Dems and UKIP all add tens of thousands of votes.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311
    Estobar said:

    Roger said:

    Apparently the police are now investigating Ch 4's story about overspending. I can't be the only person who thinks this is a ridiculous waste of police time. They're talking about re running the election in several seats. The only good news is that Anna Soubry is one of them so Nick might get his seat back

    That's not a very inspiring post for the future well-being of British democracy. You don't want potential criminal activity and corruption investigated?

    This isn't The House of Cards, you know.
    Isn't there a shortish (1 mth?) statute of limitations on it? Apart from the most egregious violations? For precisely the reason you state.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,303
    murali_s said:

    Roger said:

    Diane Abbott is beyond embarrassing. Everywhere she went yesterday campaigning for Khan the voters said to her "we want to win this for Jeremy"

    Sid and Doris

    Agreed. Someone needs to put her out to pasture...
    There are certain politicians that you immediately switch off to to save your anger and dismay. She is top of my list of such politicians closely followed by Livingstone
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    HYUFD said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Yebbut, factor in swingback, and Labour will go backwards on 2015...

    The UKIP and SNP votes make a hung parliament likely in 2020, especially after EU ref
    We were told that in 2015 also.

    Middle England will stick pins in their eyes before entertaining a Corbyn government propped up by the SNP.

    If the 2016 NEV is anything like what I've been hearing, it's an atrocious result for Labour...
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good Evening.

    With turnout up in London for the Mayoral, it seems that Labour managed to bring out their supporters from the mosques and madrasas to vote.

    So congratulations to Sadiq and lets see what he makes of the job.
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    RodCrosby said:

    HYUFD said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Yebbut, factor in swingback, and Labour will go backwards on 2015...

    The UKIP and SNP votes make a hung parliament likely in 2020, especially after EU ref
    We were told that in 2015 also.

    Middle England will stick pins in their eyes before entertaining a Corbyn government propped up by the SNP.

    If the 2016 NEV is anything like what I've been hearing, it's an atrocious result for Labour...
    You forget something my friend, the EU referendum. All bets are off as the Tories could tear themselves apart (popcorn not provided).
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    TOPPING said:

    Estobar said:

    Roger said:

    Apparently the police are now investigating Ch 4's story about overspending. I can't be the only person who thinks this is a ridiculous waste of police time. They're talking about re running the election in several seats. The only good news is that Anna Soubry is one of them so Nick might get his seat back

    That's not a very inspiring post for the future well-being of British democracy. You don't want potential criminal activity and corruption investigated?

    This isn't The House of Cards, you know.
    Isn't there a shortish (1 mth?) statute of limitations on it? Apart from the most egregious violations? For precisely the reason you state.
    It's now up to the individual police forces to decide to apply for an extension. We'll soon see which are the most anit-tory :p
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    murali_s said:

    Roger said:

    Diane Abbott is beyond embarrassing. Everywhere she went yesterday campaigning for Khan the voters said to her "we want to win this for Jeremy"

    Sid and Doris

    Agreed. Someone needs to put her out to pasture...
    Ddn't Corbyn once put her out to pasture, or similar, so to speak?
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,980
    MikeK said:

    Good Evening.

    With turnout up in London for the Mayoral, it seems that Labour managed to bring out their supporters from the mosques and madrasas to vote.

    So congratulations to Sadiq and lets see what he makes of the job.

    He got my second preference vote - and I've never been to a mosque in my life.
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    edited May 2016
    MikeK said:

    Good Evening.

    With turnout up in London for the Mayoral, it seems that Labour managed to bring out their supporters from the mosques and madrasas to vote.

    So congratulations to Sadiq and lets see what he makes of the job.

    Sighs.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Sadiq Khan's election to the London mayor is a tribute to his ability to position himself as against association with terror and also Jeremy Corbyn. The conservative campaign was a disgrace (and I say that as a conservative party member) and the result was inevitable. As long as Kahn keeps his distance from Corbyn, continues with his insistence on the expulsion of Livingstone who I heard again today bring Hitler into discussion, and runs London in the interest of all he will be a success. Indeed one day he may even lead labour out of the wilderness. The other topical issue is that from tomorrow he will be a powerful voice for remain and now this weeks elections are over, Nicola Sturgeon, Leanne Wood and others will make their case for remain. It will be interesting to see if this week see's an end to the phoney war and the start of the referendum campaign proper. The government booklets will be circulated throughout Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland next week

    Weren't you one of the people that claimed it was all over for Leave due to Obama's intervention?
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    MontyMonty Posts: 346
    dyingswan said:

    Poor old Wales. It is just like battered wife syndrome.For a hundred years Labour has said:" I will be better in future. I promise. Trust me." Since 1919 Wales has believed it. There must now be over 30 all-Wales elections-GEs, Assembly and European in a century. In all but one- the Euros in 2009 at the height of the Brown Terror- Labour has finished top of the poll. It is so depressing.The Welsh people have low expectations. They are about to be fulfilled -again. The Labour government will drive down our standards in education,health and anything else that they can get their hands on. Then in 2020 they will say:"Sorry love didn't mean to hurt you. I will be better next time. Honest."

    And yet they don't trust the Tories who dismantled the Mining communities with extreme prejudice without attempting to put anything in their place or supporting the collapsing workforce.
    Hmm. Can't think why that brand doesn't sell.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,115
    edited May 2016
    TOPPING said:

    Estobar said:

    Roger said:

    Apparently the police are now investigating Ch 4's story about overspending. I can't be the only person who thinks this is a ridiculous waste of police time. They're talking about re running the election in several seats. The only good news is that Anna Soubry is one of them so Nick might get his seat back

    That's not a very inspiring post for the future well-being of British democracy. You don't want potential criminal activity and corruption investigated?

    This isn't The House of Cards, you know.
    Isn't there a shortish (1 mth?) statute of limitations on it? Apart from the most egregious violations? For precisely the reason you state.
    I think there's a 1 year limit which the police forces involved have had extended for another year, into 2017.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    TOPPING said:

    Estobar said:

    Roger said:

    Apparently the police are now investigating Ch 4's story about overspending. I can't be the only person who thinks this is a ridiculous waste of police time. They're talking about re running the election in several seats. The only good news is that Anna Soubry is one of them so Nick might get his seat back

    That's not a very inspiring post for the future well-being of British democracy. You don't want potential criminal activity and corruption investigated?

    This isn't The House of Cards, you know.
    Isn't there a shortish (1 mth?) statute of limitations on it? Apart from the most egregious violations? For precisely the reason you state.
    I think there's a 1 year limit which the police forces involved have had extended for another year, into 2017.
    I thought that no extension had yet been granted/applied for? I might be relying on outdated reports though...
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,458
    edited May 2016
    Roger said:

    Diane Abbott is beyond embarrassing. Everywhere she went yesterday campaigning for Khan the voters said to her "we want to win this for Jeremy"

    Sid and Doris

    I think she's quite good as a spokesperson. However, and it might be a sexist observation (though it has been frequently said about Corbyn too), she really needs to rethink her personal presentation. Reminded me of Colonel Rosa Klebb whilst being interviewed this morning.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    MikeK said:

    Good Evening.

    With turnout up in London for the Mayoral, it seems that Labour managed to bring out their supporters from the mosques and madrasas to vote.

    So congratulations to Sadiq and lets see what he makes of the job.

    The other day we were discussing how big a surprise the Cardiff North result was at the last GE to everyone. Of course it had been a good Labour result you would have been accusing them of postal fraud .
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2016

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Last night the BBC were saying Labour were up by 3 or 4 points compared to last year but now they're projecting Labour on 31% which is the same as last year. Not sure what caused the change.

    Projections based on last night's national voteshare for 2020 election

    BBC Tories 301, Lab 253, SNP 53, LD 19, UKIP 1

    Sky Tories 280, Lab 265, SNP 56, LD 25, UKIP 1
    Tory minority government supported by Nicola?
    Projections for 2020 based on today's elections are just absolute rubbish. The only thing we can say is that the pollsters were more correct this year than last. And for the referendum the pollsters are saying that it's almost a dead heat between Remain and Leave.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,115
    edited May 2016
    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Estobar said:

    Roger said:

    Apparently the police are now investigating Ch 4's story about overspending. I can't be the only person who thinks this is a ridiculous waste of police time. They're talking about re running the election in several seats. The only good news is that Anna Soubry is one of them so Nick might get his seat back

    That's not a very inspiring post for the future well-being of British democracy. You don't want potential criminal activity and corruption investigated?

    This isn't The House of Cards, you know.
    Isn't there a shortish (1 mth?) statute of limitations on it? Apart from the most egregious violations? For precisely the reason you state.
    I think there's a 1 year limit which the police forces involved have had extended for another year, into 2017.
    I thought that no extension had yet been granted/applied for? I might be relying on outdated reports though...
    Was going by a tweet which I can't find, but C4 News says:

    'One force, Greater Manchester Police, confirmed it had already been granted an extensions by the courts to extend the one-year time limit for prosecutions under election law.
    A further three forces said they would be doing the same in coming weeks.
    Last night legal experts said it is the first time in British history that extensions had been sought to time limits for prosecutions under election law, and showed the scale of the operation.'
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Estobar said:

    Roger said:

    Apparently the police are now investigating Ch 4's story about overspending. I can't be the only person who thinks this is a ridiculous waste of police time. They're talking about re running the election in several seats. The only good news is that Anna Soubry is one of them so Nick might get his seat back

    That's not a very inspiring post for the future well-being of British democracy. You don't want potential criminal activity and corruption investigated?

    This isn't The House of Cards, you know.
    Isn't there a shortish (1 mth?) statute of limitations on it? Apart from the most egregious violations? For precisely the reason you state.
    I think there's a 1 year limit which the police forces involved have had extended for another year, into 2017.
    I thought that no extension had yet been granted/applied for? I might be relying on outdated reports though...
    Answering my own question... this from the BBC:

    "Police can investigate such claims up to a year after the election expenses were filed, and West Yorkshire Police, Derbyshire Police, and Greater Manchester Police have started the process of getting extensions to the time limit."
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sheffield — popular vote (highest vote method):

    Lab: 58,083 (39.1%)
    LD: 31,392 (21.2%)
    UKIP: 22,716 (15.3%)
    Green: 19,921 (13.4%)
    Con: 12,541 (8.4%)
    Others: 3,762 (2.5%)

    Labour share was 46.9% in 2015 and 41.1% in 2011.

    Tories highest share was 17.7% in Dore and Totley.
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Re: London. I was completely wrong. Goodbye
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    MontyMonty Posts: 346
    MikeK said:

    Good Evening.

    With turnout up in London for the Mayoral, it seems that Labour managed to bring out their supporters from the mosques and madrasas to vote.

    So congratulations to Sadiq and lets see what he makes of the job.

    Or possibly decent Tories wanted nothing to do with Goldsmith's unpleasant campaign.
    Had a drink with a good Tory friend of mine this evening. Runs her own business and she and her husband have campaigned for the Tories many times before. She's Brexit, he isn't. Good people. Good London people. Both white BTW, and will never vote Labour.
    Couldn't and wouldn't vote for Goldsmith because of his campaign. She voted Lib Dem. He voted for one of the fringe candidates.

    I'm glad decent Tories rebelled..
    If Khan can't be mayor because he's Muslim, who the hell can?
    He's a decent man. We can all disagree on policy, but London is a shining light of tolerance.
    Long may it continue.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Congratulations to Neil Hamilton on winning a seat in the Welsh Assembly.

    Why ?
    Why not?
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    LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    I see Harriet Harman is sticking the knife into Zac G. Some of these Labour women have a real nasty edge. Oh my, Colonel Bucket is on SKY now - just pressed the 'mute' button, I can't stand any more.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,303
    MP_SE said:

    Sadiq Khan's election to the London mayor is a tribute to his ability to position himself as against association with terror and also Jeremy Corbyn. The conservative campaign was a disgrace (and I say that as a conservative party member) and the result was inevitable. As long as Kahn keeps his distance from Corbyn, continues with his insistence on the expulsion of Livingstone who I heard again today bring Hitler into discussion, and runs London in the interest of all he will be a success. Indeed one day he may even lead labour out of the wilderness. The other topical issue is that from tomorrow he will be a powerful voice for remain and now this weeks elections are over, Nicola Sturgeon, Leanne Wood and others will make their case for remain. It will be interesting to see if this week see's an end to the phoney war and the start of the referendum campaign proper. The government booklets will be circulated throughout Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland next week

    Weren't you one of the people that claimed it was all over for Leave due to Obama's intervention?
    Absolutely not though others did. I have no idea what will happen though I am for remain but equally respect the views of those for leave. As far as I am concerned I will accept the result of the vote with good grace either way and move on.
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited May 2016
    Perhaps we could have a thread inviting PBers to name a politician, media person or whatever whom they intensely dislike, with or without giving reasons, but obviously omitting any libelous content.
    To start the ball rolling, I'd like to nominate without the least hesitation Yasmin Alibhai-Brown, someone I greatly wish never to see or hear of ever again.
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    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Roger said:

    Diane Abbott is beyond embarrassing. Everywhere she went yesterday campaigning for Khan the voters said to her "we want to win this for Jeremy"

    Sid and Doris

    I think she's quite good as a spokesperson. However, and it might be a sexist observation (though it has been frequently said about Corbyn too), she really needs to rethink her personal presentation. Reminded me of Colonel Rosa Klebb whilst being interviewed this morning.
    Tbf if she went full Klebb on John Mann it would make great TV.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    @peter_from_putney - Jess Philips, but I woke up at 3:45 this morning and put on the TV to find Peter Hein on the BBC. I'd forgot how much he irritates me!
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,011

    murali_s said:

    Roger said:

    Diane Abbott is beyond embarrassing. Everywhere she went yesterday campaigning for Khan the voters said to her "we want to win this for Jeremy"

    Sid and Doris

    Agreed. Someone needs to put her out to pasture...
    Ddn't Corbyn once put her out to pasture, or similar, so to speak?
    Tupped is I think the bucolic word you are looking for.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,091
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Congratulations to Neil Hamilton on winning a seat in the Welsh Assembly.

    Why ?
    Why not?
    There's no shortage of people elected today so why chose Hamilton.

    He's not even got elected directly but through a list seat.
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    MontyMonty Posts: 346

    Perhaps we could have a thread inviting PBers to name a politician, media person or whatever whom they intensely dislike, with or without giving reasons, but obviously omitting any libelous content.
    To start the ball rolling, I'd like to nominate without the least hesitation Yasmin Alibhai-Brown, someone I greatly wish never to see or hear of ever again.

    Boris Johnson.
    Untrustworthy.
    Don't believe he has any actual friends.
    Just acquaintances on the path to power.

This discussion has been closed.