I suspect any chipper tories in London are ascribing to the theory that Khan winning is good for the Tories as it secures Corbyn in place. We shall see I guess.
As a matter of fact - what is the notional Labour-Tory Swing from the last time these were contested?
The projected national share in 2012 was Lab 39% Con 33% and the last time the metropolitan councils were contested was last year when the result was Con 37% Lab 31% so that's a swing of 6%. Is that what you were asking?
I suspect any chipper tories in London are ascribing to the theory that Khan winning is good for the Tories as it secures Corbyn in place. We shall see I guess.
If results in Scotland and England are as bad as they appear to be, poor in Wales, bad in London and only Khan wins, on top of the last ten days of scandal and still Labour cannot ditch the Jezziah, you have to begin to wonder what would cause him to resign.
I wasn't sure until I went into the polling booth but ultimately I voted for UKIP for the Assembly and Goldsmith for mayor. Despite my issues with the Tory leadership and his own personal infidelities, Goldsmith is clearly a patriot with an independent mind. Those are in short supply in politics these days.
Technically speaking, you can't say who you voted for until 10.00pm - the Guardian website is very clear on this.
Lib Dem councillor just knocked on my door and asked who we had voted for......
More trouble if he has a role in the wider Labour party
All those claiming this stuff is just staines & right wing media forget that this website has been banging on about this stuff for ages & is of the left.
I did try to explain that to Roger. Waste of time he just isn't interested in facts.
Just back from voting. They were queuing out the door for my area. Meanwhile, the desk for the other bits of the ward was very quiet. You have to wonder about Islington Council's organisational abilities.
Though given I turned up without the letter authorising me to cast a proxy vote, I can hardly talk.
I suspect any chipper tories in London are ascribing to the theory that Khan winning is good for the Tories as it secures Corbyn in place. We shall see I guess.
I suspect any chipper tories in London are ascribing to the theory that Khan winning is good for the Tories as it secures Corbyn in place. We shall see I guess.
I suppose it had to happen: when people don't vote Tory, and the Tory candidate is Jewish, they get called "anti-Semitic". We're just like Hitler, right? Auschwitz types.
If someone with a different ethnicity from my own tries to mug me, and I punch them, does that make me a "racist"? Of course it doesn't. Similarly if a Jew wants my vote and I won't give it to him. Tim Bale is in serious need of a lesson in having a bit of sense. If he can't find somewhere to get one, he's welcome to come round my place and I'll see if I can assist, with the help of a big stick.
This kind of usage of terms, idiotic at best and mendacious more often than not, belittles the experiences of people who really do get subjected to racist attacks and abuse and prejudice.
Has anyone else noticed how the level of bullshit in British politics seems to have risen fast in the last few days? Will it ever go back down again?
I think that some Labour activists have come under unfair attack in recent days. Harsh criticism of Israel , per se, should not result in suspension.
But, Livingstone really does deserve to get it with both barrels. He just enjoys poking Jews in the eye.
The Tories should stay away from twitter, and concentrate on the real world, and leave it to the Corbynistas and hard left lunatics who actually think it makes a difference.
Is the UK the only country in the world where you can vote without any ID?
Presumably you do have to show ID if you forget your poll card?
Not in my village you don't. There isn't even a policeman or woman here. The whole system relies on honesty. Anyone could walk into the polling station and pretend to be another person and cast their vote.
Anecdote alert: All the gossip in London is contrary. Turnout of 40% plus may occur. Tories are not giving up. Labour will get swing against them. Rest is conflicting.
@HYUFD Not only did I not need to show ID for my vote, I didn't need to show ID for my other half's proxy vote. All I had to do was confirm my name and his name to the presiding officer.
Khan is a lose lose for Corbyn. If (when) Khan wins he will be the lightning rod for anti Corbyn attacks, emboldened by being democratically elected.
Lose and Corbyn is dead.
Whether Khan wins or loses will dictate whether Corbyn's death is long and slow (Khan wins), or short and sweet (Khan loses)
Yes. The best result is a Khan win (33/1), Corbyn safe for another few months while more and more poison leaks from City Hall and a defenestration too late to repair the damage before 2020
Anecdote alert: All the gossip in London is contrary. Turnout of 40% plus may occur. Tories are not giving up. Labour will get swing against them. Rest is conflicting.
Former presidents George HW and George W Bush have 'no plans to endorse Trump' spokesmen have said, the first time they have not officially endorsed the GOP nominee. Neither will play any role in the campaign (I expect both to vote for Hillary in the privacy of the booth) https://www.texastribune.org/2016/05/04/bush-41-43-have-no-plans-endorse-trump/
Anecdote alert: All the gossip in London is contrary. Turnout of 40% plus may occur. Tories are not giving up. Labour will get swing against them. Rest is conflicting.
Anecdote alert: All the gossip in London is contrary. Turnout of 40% plus may occur. Tories are not giving up. Labour will get swing against them. Rest is conflicting.
I suspect any chipper tories in London are ascribing to the theory that Khan winning is good for the Tories as it secures Corbyn in place. We shall see I guess.
If results in Scotland and England are as bad as they appear to be, poor in Wales, bad in London and only Khan wins, on top of the last ten days of scandal and still Labour cannot ditch the Jezziah, you have to begin to wonder what would cause him to resign.
If the Corbyn-haters are smart what they will do is talk about how it's been a good night for the Conservatives. A government should be getting bruised on nights like these and they won't be. I suspect that they'll focus on Labour's failings though. But they've really got to get across that they don't like this government and want it removed.
Anecdote alert: All the gossip in London is contrary. Turnout of 40% plus may occur. Tories are not giving up. Labour will get swing against them. Rest is conflicting.
Conventional wisdom has been proven to be a useless guide to Trump's electoral chances, so here's some more conventional wisdom so you know which arguments to ignore...
I mean really, can we take any pundit seriously who says something like this: “Donald Trump is someone who has jumped out a 100-story window and is at floor 50, and thinks he knows how to fly."
@foxinsox "You cannot blame the Euro for one without crediting it for the other. " So the Euro is to be credited for the boom! Condemn the vomit but praise the binge.
The good doctor is both right and wrong. The entry into the euro, largely thanks to low interest rates to help the sluggish German economy, caused huge booms in the periphery - Ireland, Iberia, Italy, Greece. The problem was that as early as 2003 it was clear there was a serious danger of all of them overheating in the wake of the slowdown that followed Iraq. To prevent that, the central banks of the countries took the only measure left open to them - quietly ditching capital requirements so that banks could keep lending.
This meant however that the crash was much worse when it inevitably came. And they had no mechanism to correct it.
Both the boom and the bust in Greece were caused by the adoption of the Euro. An unsustainable boom is not a good thing. It leads inevitably to a bust. They are linked. It was clear before the Euro came into being that one and the same interest rate would not suit all the economies of the Euroarea. (One size does not fit all). Both the boom and the bust are symptoms of a serious malaise brought on by inappropriate policy. The correct diagnosis has to be holistic.
Is the UK the only country in the world where you can vote without any ID?
Presumably you do have to show ID if you forget your poll card?
Nope. No ID of any sort required. I seem to recall last year there was a bit of a problem when some people turned up and were told they had already voted.
The system is wide open to abuse. However, without any form of standard ID, no solution would be perfect either.
Anecdote alert: All the gossip in London is contrary. Turnout of 40% plus may occur. Tories are not giving up. Labour will get swing against them. Rest is conflicting.
Anecdote alert: All the gossip in London is contrary. Turnout of 40% plus may occur. Tories are not giving up. Labour will get swing against them. Rest is conflicting.
High turnout is only good for Kahn, surely?
Can we be sure nobody knows the result yet? Jez we Khan!
@foxinsox "You cannot blame the Euro for one without crediting it for the other. " So the Euro is to be credited for the boom! Condemn the vomit but praise the binge.
The good doctor is both right and wrong. The entry into the euro, largely thanks to low interest rates to help the sluggish German economy, caused huge booms in the periphery - Ireland, Iberia, Italy, Greece. The problem was that as early as 2003 it was clear there was a serious danger of all of them overheating in the wake of the slowdown that followed Iraq. To prevent that, the central banks of the countries took the only measure left open to them - quietly ditching capital requirements so that banks could keep lending.
This meant however that the crash was much worse when it inevitably came. And they had no mechanism to correct it.
Both the boom and the bust in Greece were caused by the adoption of the Euro. An unsustainable boom is not a good thing. It leads inevitably to a bust. They are linked. It was clear before the Euro came into being that one and the same interest rate would not suit all the economies of the Euroarea. (One size does not fit all). Both the boom and the bust are symptoms of a serious malaise brought on by inappropriate policy. The correct diagnosis has to be holistic.
The Greek government mishandled the situation during the boom years because they had been used to managing boom-bust cycles using currency devaluations. Their political class has learnt a hard lesson about what good governance within a currency block looks like and those mistakes will never be repeated.
Is the UK the only country in the world where you can vote without any ID?
Presumably you do have to show ID if you forget your poll card?
Nope. No ID of any sort required. I seem to recall last year there was a bit of a problem when some people turned up and were told they had already voted.
The system is wide open to abuse. However, without any form of standard ID, no solution would be perfect either.
The fact that it works in 99.9% of cases is testament to the honesty of most people in the UK.
Because the republican attack adds on him, all those millions spent by Rubio, Bush and Cruz were so effective! He is just going to point and say, what do you expect of the corrupt establishment.
@foxinsox "You cannot blame the Euro for one without crediting it for the other. " So the Euro is to be credited for the boom! Condemn the vomit but praise the binge.
The good doctor is both right and wrong. The entry into the euro, largely thanks to low interest rates to help the sluggish German economy, caused huge booms in the periphery - Ireland, Iberia, Italy, Greece. The problem was that as early as 2003 it was clear there was a serious danger of all of them overheating in the wake of the slowdown that followed Iraq. To prevent that, the central banks of the countries took the only measure left open to them - quietly ditching capital requirements so that banks could keep lending.
This meant however that the crash was much worse when it inevitably came. And they had no mechanism to correct it.
Both the boom and the bust in Greece were caused by the adoption of the Euro. An unsustainable boom is not a good thing. It leads inevitably to a bust. They are linked. It was clear before the Euro came into being that one and the same interest rate would not suit all the economies of the Euroarea. (One size does not fit all). Both the boom and the bust are symptoms of a serious malaise brought on by inappropriate policy. The correct diagnosis has to be holistic.
No interest rate system suits an entire national economy. The difference in nation states that stops a currency from fracturing is the capital transfers made by the government to correct or at least palliate market forces.
The gaping and probably insoluble hole in the euro is that these simply don't happen without conditions attached that make matters worse rather than better.
Anecdote alert: All the gossip in London is contrary. Turnout of 40% plus may occur. Tories are not giving up. Labour will get swing against them. Rest is conflicting.
Because the republican attack adds on him, all those millions spent by Rubio, Bush and Cruz were so effective! He is just going to point and say, what do you expect of the corrupt establishment.
They were effective with the GOP base and the Tea Party, Hillary is targeting independents and moderates
Is the UK the only country in the world where you can vote without any ID?
Presumably you do have to show ID if you forget your poll card?
Nope. No ID of any sort required. I seem to recall last year there was a bit of a problem when some people turned up and were told they had already voted.
The system is wide open to abuse. However, without any form of standard ID, no solution would be perfect either.
Most people have to show their polling card, that is the ID election staff generally use, if you have forgotten it I will take your word for it they just take your name and address
Conventional wisdom has been proven to be a useless guide to Trump's electoral chances, so here's some more conventional wisdom so you know which arguments to ignore...
I mean really, can we take any pundit seriously who says something like this: “Donald Trump is someone who has jumped out a 100-story window and is at floor 50, and thinks he knows how to fly."
Why is conventional wisdom useless? Prior to the primaries Trump was Polling well and then did well. That is literally the very definition of conventional. The conventional stupidity of pundits was ignoring the basic facts that were staring them in the face.
Conventional wisdom has been proven to be a useless guide to Trump's electoral chances, so here's some more conventional wisdom so you know which arguments to ignore...
I mean really, can we take any pundit seriously who says something like this: “Donald Trump is someone who has jumped out a 100-story window and is at floor 50, and thinks he knows how to fly."
You shouldn't get too entangled by a writers metaphor as I don't.
Is the UK the only country in the world where you can vote without any ID?
Presumably you do have to show ID if you forget your poll card?
Nope. No ID of any sort required. I seem to recall last year there was a bit of a problem when some people turned up and were told they had already voted.
The system is wide open to abuse. However, without any form of standard ID, no solution would be perfect either.
Most people have to show their polling card, that is the ID election staff generally use, if you have forgotten it I will take your word for it they just take your name and address
Yep, I misplaced my card. No ID required for my vote, they just took my word that I was who I said I was.
Is the UK the only country in the world where you can vote without any ID?
Presumably you do have to show ID if you forget your poll card?
Nope. No ID of any sort required. I seem to recall last year there was a bit of a problem when some people turned up and were told they had already voted.
The system is wide open to abuse. However, without any form of standard ID, no solution would be perfect either.
Most people have to show their polling card, that is the ID election staff generally use, if you have forgotten it I will take your word for it they just take your name and address
Yep, I misplaced my card. No ID required for my vote, they just took my word that I was who I said I was.
Make the polling card compulsory then or if not at least require a bank card or driving licence if you have forgotten it
The good Lady & I have just returned from casting our vote at the Sth Wilts Village Hall, (PCC only) - asked how busy it had been, one pointed to her kindle, the other to his news-paper.
Is the UK the only country in the world where you can vote without any ID?
Presumably you do have to show ID if you forget your poll card?
Nope. No ID of any sort required. I seem to recall last year there was a bit of a problem when some people turned up and were told they had already voted.
The system is wide open to abuse. However, without any form of standard ID, no solution would be perfect either.
Most people have to show their polling card, that is the ID election staff generally use, if you have forgotten it I will take your word for it they just take your name and address
Says right on the polling cards you don't need to bring it with you, but that it helps.
Conventional wisdom has been proven to be a useless guide to Trump's electoral chances, so here's some more conventional wisdom so you know which arguments to ignore...
I mean really, can we take any pundit seriously who says something like this: “Donald Trump is someone who has jumped out a 100-story window and is at floor 50, and thinks he knows how to fly."
Why is conventional wisdom useless? Prior to the primaries Trump was Polling well and then did well. That is literally the very definition of conventional. The conventional stupidity of pundits was ignoring the basic facts that were staring them in the face.
The conventional wisdom also sees the polls showing Hilary beating Trump easily , it is a different set of political pundits ignoring these basic facts .
Because the republican attack adds on him, all those millions spent by Rubio, Bush and Cruz were so effective! He is just going to point and say, what do you expect of the corrupt establishment.
They were effective with the GOP base and the Tea Party, Hillary is targeting independents and moderates
Some people are having a hard time comprehending that not only are the electorates for the Dem and Rep primaries different but that they are also different to the general election population.
Conventional wisdom has been proven to be a useless guide to Trump's electoral chances, so here's some more conventional wisdom so you know which arguments to ignore...
I mean really, can we take any pundit seriously who says something like this: “Donald Trump is someone who has jumped out a 100-story window and is at floor 50, and thinks he knows how to fly."
Why is conventional wisdom useless? Prior to the primaries Trump was Polling well and then did well. That is literally the very definition of conventional. The conventional stupidity of pundits was ignoring the basic facts that were staring them in the face.
The conventional wisdom also sees the polls showing Hilary beating Trump easily , it is a different set of political pundits ignoring these basic facts .
What might be more relevant is the way that Trump broke the (ARSE) ceiling as the primaries wore on. We won't have a clear indication of the national picture until it's sunk in that Trump and Clinton are the candidates.
Conventional wisdom has been proven to be a useless guide to Trump's electoral chances, so here's some more conventional wisdom so you know which arguments to ignore...
I mean really, can we take any pundit seriously who says something like this: “Donald Trump is someone who has jumped out a 100-story window and is at floor 50, and thinks he knows how to fly."
Why is conventional wisdom useless? Prior to the primaries Trump was Polling well and then did well. That is literally the very definition of conventional. The conventional stupidity of pundits was ignoring the basic facts that were staring them in the face.
The conventional wisdom also sees the polls showing Hilary beating Trump easily , it is a different set of political pundits ignoring these basic facts .
Conventional wisdom saw a hung parliament a year ago....
I suspect any chipper tories in London are ascribing to the theory that Khan winning is good for the Tories as it secures Corbyn in place
I think Zac will win. But if Khan wins, he will soon get called "anti-Semitic", and Corbyn can't sack the mayor of London, so he will get hit by these nutters too. Maybe a Muslim mayor of London will be welcome in Melanie Phillips-land? Then she can continue screaming like a banshee about "Londonistan".
Polling staff's job is a) tick a person off the register when someone comes in saying that they are that person at that address (either verbally or by showing a poll card), b) raise the alarm if someone else comes in later saying that they are that person. It's not their job to check who people are.
Does not make a lot of sense really. Local election results are declared ward by ward. Results from the same authority will be hours apart in terms of timing.
Does not make a lot of sense really. Local election results are declared ward by ward. Results from the same authority will be hours apart in terms of timing.
It will be based on when the declarations start to come through for each authority
Because the republican attack adds on him, all those millions spent by Rubio, Bush and Cruz were so effective! He is just going to point and say, what do you expect of the corrupt establishment.
They were effective with the GOP base and the Tea Party, Hillary is targeting independents and moderates
Some people are having a hard time comprehending that not only are the electorates for the Dem and Rep primaries different but that they are also different to the general election population.
Because the republican attack adds on him, all those millions spent by Rubio, Bush and Cruz were so effective! He is just going to point and say, what do you expect of the corrupt establishment.
They were effective with the GOP base and the Tea Party, Hillary is targeting independents and moderates
Some people are having a hard time comprehending that not only are the electorates for the Dem and Rep primaries different but that they are also different to the general election population.
Exactly
Also of note, Obama, worst president of all time greatest most crushing disappointment ever totally hated by all - currently has a higher approval rating than Saint Ronald of Regan did at this point in his term.
Because the republican attack adds on him, all those millions spent by Rubio, Bush and Cruz were so effective! He is just going to point and say, what do you expect of the corrupt establishment.
They were effective with the GOP base and the Tea Party, Hillary is targeting independents and moderates
Some people are having a hard time comprehending that not only are the electorates for the Dem and Rep primaries different but that they are also different to the general election population.
Exactly
Also of note, Obama, worst president of all time greatest most crushing disappointment ever totally hated by all - currently has a higher approval rating than Saint Ronald of Regan did at this point in his term.
Conventional wisdom has been proven to be a useless guide to Trump's electoral chances, so here's some more conventional wisdom so you know which arguments to ignore...
I mean really, can we take any pundit seriously who says something like this: “Donald Trump is someone who has jumped out a 100-story window and is at floor 50, and thinks he knows how to fly."
Trump has only had to appeal to registered Republicans so far. The combined Republican and Democrat primary turnout has been around 30% of the electorate.
Because the republican attack adds on him, all those millions spent by Rubio, Bush and Cruz were so effective! He is just going to point and say, what do you expect of the corrupt establishment.
They were effective with the GOP base and the Tea Party, Hillary is targeting independents and moderates
Some people are having a hard time comprehending that not only are the electorates for the Dem and Rep primaries different but that they are also different to the general election population.
Exactly
Also of note, Obama, worst president of all time greatest most crushing disappointment ever totally hated by all - currently has a higher approval rating than Saint Ronald of Regan did at this point in his term.
Because the republican attack adds on him, all those millions spent by Rubio, Bush and Cruz were so effective! He is just going to point and say, what do you expect of the corrupt establishment.
They were effective with the GOP base and the Tea Party, Hillary is targeting independents and moderates
Some people are having a hard time comprehending that not only are the electorates for the Dem and Rep primaries different but that they are also different to the general election population.
Because the republican attack adds on him, all those millions spent by Rubio, Bush and Cruz were so effective! He is just going to point and say, what do you expect of the corrupt establishment.
They were effective with the GOP base and the Tea Party, Hillary is targeting independents and moderates
Some people are having a hard time comprehending that not only are the electorates for the Dem and Rep primaries different but that they are also different to the general election population.
Exactly
Also of note, Obama, worst president of all time greatest most crushing disappointment ever totally hated by all - currently has a higher approval rating than Saint Ronald of Regan did at this point in his term.
Because the republican attack adds on him, all those millions spent by Rubio, Bush and Cruz were so effective! He is just going to point and say, what do you expect of the corrupt establishment.
They were effective with the GOP base and the Tea Party, Hillary is targeting independents and moderates
Some people are having a hard time comprehending that not only are the electorates for the Dem and Rep primaries different but that they are also different to the general election population.
Exactly
Also of note, Obama, worst president of all time greatest most crushing disappointment ever totally hated by all - currently has a higher approval rating than Saint Ronald of Regan did at this point in his term.
Because the republican attack adds on him, all those millions spent by Rubio, Bush and Cruz were so effective! He is just going to point and say, what do you expect of the corrupt establishment.
They were effective with the GOP base and the Tea Party, Hillary is targeting independents and moderates
Some people are having a hard time comprehending that not only are the electorates for the Dem and Rep primaries different but that they are also different to the general election population.
Exactly
Also of note, Obama, worst president of all time greatest most crushing disappointment ever totally hated by all - currently has a higher approval rating than Saint Ronald of Regan did at this point in his term.
Narratives, sometimes hard to fit to reality
Did any other POTUS have so hostile a Congress?
Obama could stand in Central Park and shoot someone's kid and it wouldn't affect his standing amongst the left.
OT - been a rush at our polling station - MrsWJ has just voted and our family is now 3/9.
Anecdote alert: All the gossip in London is contrary. Turnout of 40% plus may occur. Tories are not giving up. Labour will get swing against them. Rest is conflicting.
High turnout is only good for Kahn, surely?
That is the recevied wisdom.
when you say Labour will get a swing towrads them you mean in assembley Khan has this in the bag, 8% lead I think for him.
Comments
We shall see I guess.
'What level of low turnout would be necessary for that, given he's not likely to get as good returns from the outer boroughs as Boris either - 5%?!'
By 4 pm the turnout was apparently 12%
Clinton 56 .. Sanders 41
Clinton 45 .. Trump 36
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTracking5042016.pdf
Though given I turned up without the letter authorising me to cast a proxy vote, I can hardly talk.
Lose and Corbyn is dead.
Whether Khan wins or loses will dictate whether Corbyn's death is long and slow (Khan wins), or short and sweet (Khan loses)
But, Livingstone really does deserve to get it with both barrels. He just enjoys poking Jews in the eye.
The Tories should stay away from twitter, and concentrate on the real world, and leave it to the Corbynistas and hard left lunatics who actually think it makes a difference.
https://www.texastribune.org/2016/05/04/bush-41-43-have-no-plans-endorse-trump/
I mean really, can we take any pundit seriously who says something like this: “Donald Trump is someone who has jumped out a 100-story window and is at floor 50, and thinks he knows how to fly."
The system is wide open to abuse. However, without any form of standard ID, no solution would be perfect either.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/donald-trump-attacked-by-leading-republicans-in-brutal-new-hillary-clinton-advert_uk_572b00a0e4b05c31e571756f?utm_hp_ref=uk&ir=UK§ion=uk_uk
Let's wait and see what happens guys.
Up to 80% in some polling places
The gaping and probably insoluble hole in the euro is that these simply don't happen without conditions attached that make matters worse rather than better.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/hillary-clinton-is-walking-into-donald-trumps-trap/2016/05/04/1cbe2722-120a-11e6-81b4-581a5c4c42df_story.html?tid=hybrid_experimentrandom_1_na
Meanwhile ....
Nate Cohn of the "New York Times" says it's an early uphill struggle for Trump :
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/04/upshot/trump-would-have-uphill-battle-against-clinton.html?_r=0
The conventional stupidity of pundits was ignoring the basic facts that were staring them in the face.
The good Lady & I have just returned from casting our vote at the Sth Wilts Village Hall, (PCC only) - asked how busy it had been, one pointed to her kindle, the other to his news-paper.
Guess it’s been pretty quiet all day.
http://election.pressassociation.com/declaration_times.php
NEW THREAD
Narratives, sometimes hard to fit to reality
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/03/08/so-far-turnout-in-this-years-primaries-rivals-2008-record/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_approval_rating
OT - been a rush at our polling station - MrsWJ has just voted and our family is now 3/9.