Well actually it means reducing the size of the state, specifically the number of politicians, their title and responsibilities are up for debate. I was with Mark Reckless when he spoke of policing in the 19th century, policing by consent, he really is an interesting man.
On reflection and having read what Herdson and Plato say, I'm not entirely anti PCC I'm anti political affiliation.
That I can entirely agree with. But then I am even more extreme and think that we should reduce political affiliation in all aspects of Government. I am a long standing advocate of radical reduction in the power of the whips and making every vote at every level of Governance a free vote.
For many years Parish and town councils used to be almost exclusively party free. It now seems more and more common for party affiliation to be the norm at parish elections. Not a good development.
I have some sympathy with that approach but a number of friends over the years who have held very senior positions in local government have been unanimous that they prefer the party system which results in some level of consistency and predictability. If you are trying to manage, say, an education budget, you really need some consistency of approach if you are going to manage effectively.
Eastwood is a Scottish Constituency that I would expect the tories to beat Labour in. That doesn't mean that they will win it of course. The SNP may well come from 3rd. Labour has a majority of 2K but if Ruth's Unionist stich is going to work anywhere it really should be there.
To be honest I am not expecting Labour to win any constituency seats at all. They will recover some of the damage of that from the Lists though. I think Ruth is being a tad optimistic but we shall see.
Optimistic in her prediction of the Tories coming 2nd?
Given the polls will surely be underestimating the Tories a bit (even if not by the same extent as last year) I would've thought it was a near-cert now tbh.
Terrible idea. That's like electing judges or the CPS - law and order operations can't be political/vote grabbing.
I totally disagree, I think vote grabbing is exacly what policing needs. The client of the police at the moment is HMG. It should be the people. If people want local oiks sorting out and a zero tolerance to graffiti, as opposed to speed traps and people being arrested for offensive tweeting that's what they should have. We will realise sooner or later that people usually know best.
Go to America and see the elections for Judges and State Attorneys elections.
They do not bode well for justice.
The CPS should not decide whether to prosecute or not because they have an election coming ditto, judges and sentencing.
I'm not saying go full America (not dismissing it in this instance either) but in terms of Chief Constables I don't see a drawback.
It's too late to be hankering after some kind of Dixon of Dock Green model of policing in the UK. It never really existed and certainly doesn't now. Today's police are extremely politicised and - dangerously - are largely unaccountable as well.
If it's a swap between overtly political decision making via elections (and with the possibility of change that brings) and overtly political decision making via the whims and personal attitudes of police chiefs (and sometimes under pressure from above), I would prefer the former.
And the same goes for the CPS, which is also a highly politicised institution.
Dumfriesshire is a very different constituency from the equivalent Westminster constituency for both personell and geographic reasons.
Geographically the Westminster constituency is a mess, so is the Holyrood constituency ina different way but crucially it contains East Dumfries and environs that the Westminster constituency does not.
Also in 2015 Mundell Snr was the incumbent, in 2016 Mundell Jr is the challenger whilst the Labour candidate is a 1999 continuous occupant, one of only a few I would imagine.
Eastwood is a Scottish Constituency that I would expect the tories to beat Labour in. That doesn't mean that they will win it of course. The SNP may well come from 3rd. Labour has a majority of 2K but if Ruth's Unionist stich is going to work anywhere it really should be there.
To be honest I am not expecting Labour to win any constituency seats at all. They will recover some of the damage of that from the Lists though. I think Ruth is being a tad optimistic but we shall see.
They could keep Dumfriesshire, my bank balance would like it if they did.
Keep? Its Labour at the moment and with a somewhat bigger majority than Eastwood. But yes, it is definitely a target for them. They did pretty well there in the 2015 election beating Labour comfortably but were completely outgunned by a massive increase in the SNP vote. If the Tories can consolidate the Unionist vote more effectively this time then they have a chance but it would not surprise me if the SNP take this too.
Apologies, I meant Labour could keep it.
I think Labour will come 3rd in that seat. Who wins is up for grabs but SNP are favourites after the 2015 result.
Eastwood is a Scottish Constituency that I would expect the tories to beat Labour in. That doesn't mean that they will win it of course. The SNP may well come from 3rd. Labour has a majority of 2K but if Ruth's Unionist stich is going to work anywhere it really should be there.
To be honest I am not expecting Labour to win any constituency seats at all. They will recover some of the damage of that from the Lists though. I think Ruth is being a tad optimistic but we shall see.
Optimistic in her prediction of the Tories coming 2nd?
Given the polls will surely be underestimating the Tories a bit (even if not by the same extent as last year) I would've thought it was a near-cert now tbh.
I have lived through too many Scottish tory surges to believe that. This time its different. Well, maybe...
Its a lot more interesting than who comes first anyway. And will the Lib Dems beat the Greens? I hope so, if only so we hear less of Patrick Harvie, one of the most annoying men in the country.
But other pollsters aren't showing them dropping back yet, so too early to say. What is really obvious is the pain of being in government there at the moment - both governing parties well down, all the others up.
Only if you ignore pollsters like INSA who've just put them on 13.5%.
Yes, that's why I said other pollsters hadn't shown the pattern. INSA (which nearly always shows the highest level for AfD) has them stable:
This is getting embarrassing. Hopefully Trump wins conclusively tonight and the republicans can then move on. The "clever" manoeuvring of delegates in States he actually lost seems to have blown up in Cruz's face big time.
Eastwood is a Scottish Constituency that I would expect the tories to beat Labour in. That doesn't mean that they will win it of course. The SNP may well come from 3rd. Labour has a majority of 2K but if Ruth's Unionist stich is going to work anywhere it really should be there.
To be honest I am not expecting Labour to win any constituency seats at all. They will recover some of the damage of that from the Lists though. I think Ruth is being a tad optimistic but we shall see.
Optimistic in her prediction of the Tories coming 2nd?
Given the polls will surely be underestimating the Tories a bit (even if not by the same extent as last year) I would've thought it was a near-cert now tbh.
I have lived through too many Scottish tory surges to believe that. This time its different. Well, maybe...
Its a lot more interesting than who comes first anyway. And will the Lib Dems beat the Greens? I hope so, if only so we hear less of Patrick Harvie, one of the most annoying men in the country.
What does coming second mean? Votes or seats? If votes then how to combine candidate and list votes? Seats is the one that matters though. Agree about Mr Harvie.
Eastwood is a Scottish Constituency that I would expect the tories to beat Labour in. That doesn't mean that they will win it of course. The SNP may well come from 3rd. Labour has a majority of 2K but if Ruth's Unionist stich is going to work anywhere it really should be there.
To be honest I am not expecting Labour to win any constituency seats at all. They will recover some of the damage of that from the Lists though. I think Ruth is being a tad optimistic but we shall see.
Optimistic in her prediction of the Tories coming 2nd?
Given the polls will surely be underestimating the Tories a bit (even if not by the same extent as last year) I would've thought it was a near-cert now tbh.
I have lived through too many Scottish tory surges to believe that. This time its different. Well, maybe...
Its a lot more interesting than who comes first anyway. And will the Lib Dems beat the Greens? I hope so, if only so we hear less of Patrick Harvie, one of the most annoying men in the country.
This time the Tories are actually Polling higher than their baseline 15.5% rather than all previous Tory surges where it was solely in activists minds.
Eastwood is a Scottish Constituency that I would expect the tories to beat Labour in. That doesn't mean that they will win it of course. The SNP may well come from 3rd. Labour has a majority of 2K but if Ruth's Unionist stich is going to work anywhere it really should be there.
To be honest I am not expecting Labour to win any constituency seats at all. They will recover some of the damage of that from the Lists though. I think Ruth is being a tad optimistic but we shall see.
Optimistic in her prediction of the Tories coming 2nd?
Given the polls will surely be underestimating the Tories a bit (even if not by the same extent as last year) I would've thought it was a near-cert now tbh.
I have lived through too many Scottish tory surges to believe that. This time its different. Well, maybe...
Its a lot more interesting than who comes first anyway. And will the Lib Dems beat the Greens? I hope so, if only so we hear less of Patrick Harvie, one of the most annoying men in the country.
This time the Tories are actually Polling higher than their baseline 15.5% rather than all previous Tory surges where it was solely in activists minds.
Sometimes they are and sometimes they're not. Who knows? But it is a reason to stay up.
Jack, any modification of your views about the results of a Clinton v Trump election? I tend to side with your view that Clinton is a shoe-in but am wavering somewhat. I haven't looked it up yet but a maths-inclined non-politico referenced a Stanford probabalistic model to me this weekend that had Trump 90+% to win.
Also, is your Euro-arse showing signs of clenching?
Eastwood is a Scottish Constituency that I would expect the tories to beat Labour in. That doesn't mean that they will win it of course. The SNP may well come from 3rd. Labour has a majority of 2K but if Ruth's Unionist stich is going to work anywhere it really should be there.
To be honest I am not expecting Labour to win any constituency seats at all. They will recover some of the damage of that from the Lists though. I think Ruth is being a tad optimistic but we shall see.
Optimistic in her prediction of the Tories coming 2nd?
Given the polls will surely be underestimating the Tories a bit (even if not by the same extent as last year) I would've thought it was a near-cert now tbh.
I have lived through too many Scottish tory surges to believe that. This time its different. Well, maybe...
Its a lot more interesting than who comes first anyway. And will the Lib Dems beat the Greens? I hope so, if only so we hear less of Patrick Harvie, one of the most annoying men in the country.
What does coming second mean? Votes or seats? If votes then how to combine candidate and list votes? Seats is the one that matters though. Agree about Mr Harvie.
Because of the list system the link between seats and votes is much closer than it is for Westminster.
At the moment Labour have 38 seats and the Tories 15. I can just about imagine a 10 seat swing to the Tories putting them on 25 and Labour 28. More than that is quite hard to imagine, frankly and it would be a shame if what would be a considerable achievement looked like some sort of a failure.
One Tory MSP made a good comment a while ago now. He said that the Tories have a ceiling but that Labour doesn't have a floor. That is what this is really about. Who can be bothered to vote for SLAB? On that question second place turns.
Jack, any modification of your views about the results of a Clinton v Trump election? I tend to side with your view that Clinton is a shoe-in but am wavering somewhat. I haven't looked it up yet but a maths-inclined non-politico referenced a Stanford probabalistic model to me this weekend that had Trump 90+% to win.
Also, is your Euro-arse showing signs of clenching?
No. Clinton will defeat Trump with ease.
National polling is useful but the Electoral College is determined by FPTP in swing states. Yesterday we had Florida and North Carolina polls that were truly horrible for Trump especially in his "home state" (after New York) of Florida. He is being crushed by devastating negatives among Latinos.
Repeated elsewhere and Nevada, Colorado are gone and Arizona in play.
My ARSE4EU has tightened for LEAVE. @MikeK is hoping to stroke it and cause the flood gates to open. Will he be a very lucky chap? .... who can tell ?!? ....
Eastwood is a Scottish Constituency that I would expect the tories to beat Labour in. That doesn't mean that they will win it of course. The SNP may well come from 3rd. Labour has a majority of 2K but if Ruth's Unionist stich is going to work anywhere it really should be there.
To be honest I am not expecting Labour to win any constituency seats at all. They will recover some of the damage of that from the Lists though. I think Ruth is being a tad optimistic but we shall see.
Optimistic in her prediction of the Tories coming 2nd?
Given the polls will surely be underestimating the Tories a bit (even if not by the same extent as last year) I would've thought it was a near-cert now tbh.
I have lived through too many Scottish tory surges to believe that. This time its different. Well, maybe...
Its a lot more interesting than who comes first anyway. And will the Lib Dems beat the Greens? I hope so, if only so we hear less of Patrick Harvie, one of the most annoying men in the country.
What does coming second mean? Votes or seats? If votes then how to combine candidate and list votes? Seats is the one that matters though. Agree about Mr Harvie.
Because of the list system the link between seats and votes is much closer than it is for Westminster.
At the moment Labour have 38 seats and the Tories 15. I can just about imagine a 10 seat swing to the Tories putting them on 25 and Labour 28. More than that is quite hard to imagine, frankly and it would be a shame if what would be a considerable achievement looked like some sort of a failure.
One Tory MSP made a good comment a while ago now. He said that the Tories have a ceiling but that Labour doesn't have a floor. That is what this is really about. Who can be bothered to vote for SLAB? On that question second place turns.
Crucially for the Scon/Slab is the list vote percentages. SLab have historically had a problem with Lab constituency voters givi g their list vote to fringe parties - this is going to happen to the SNP this time round. Crucial to the 2011 SNP majority was #bothvotessnp. SNP is going to have nightmare time picking up list seats.
If you believe the Polling then not only will Scon list vote hold up it may actually out peform their constituency vote which will lock up a very decent chunk of list seats.
'On Thursday, are we really going to hand the world's greatest city to a Conservative candidate who can't even proof check the photos featured in an article he's put his name to?'
Since when did writers proof-check articles? They have subs for that - and Photo Editors for photos.....
Ah, right. Team Zac: 'Yeah, we've put some of the usual Sadiq Bin Laden stuff together, just put Zac's name on the byline. A photo? Oh, just stick up whatever you fancy.'
In the Brave New Scotland I expect politicians will want to control headlines, photos, the BBC.....in the rest of the UK, however......
Yeah, that's a real feature of Scotland, the press and the BBC being supplicants and tools of the SNP.
You have to laugh at the mince these Tory workers come out with
Yeah, that's a real feature of Scotland, the press and the BBC being supplicants and tools of the SNP.
The SNP are the establishment...
Scotland’s freedom of information watchdog bowed to behind-the-scenes pressure from the Scottish Government to conceal information about legal advice on college tuition fees
Yeah, that's a real feature of Scotland, the press and the BBC being supplicants and tools of the SNP.
The SNP are the establishment...
Scotland’s freedom of information watchdog bowed to behind-the-scenes pressure from the Scottish Government to conceal information about legal advice on college tuition fees
The National sold 100K daily when it started? A bold claim. A link?
The popularity of the title – before launch 9,000 digital editions had been sold, priced at £1.50 a week – resulted in Newsquest upping the print run to 100,000 for Tuesday’s edition.
The leader of the Scottish Conservatives, has predicted her party will beat Labour into third place for the first time in the history of the Holyrood parliament.
With just one full day of campaigning left before Thursday’s elections, Ruth Davidson said her party’s internal polling leaves her confident that the Tories will be returned as the official opposition to the SNP.
What does coming second mean? Votes or seats? If votes then how to combine candidate and list votes? Seats is the one that matters though. Agree about Mr Harvie.
Because of the list system the link between seats and votes is much closer than it is for Westminster.
At the moment Labour have 38 seats and the Tories 15. I can just about imagine a 10 seat swing to the Tories putting them on 25 and Labour 28. More than that is quite hard to imagine, frankly and it would be a shame if what would be a considerable achievement looked like some sort of a failure.
One Tory MSP made a good comment a while ago now. He said that the Tories have a ceiling but that Labour doesn't have a floor. That is what this is really about. Who can be bothered to vote for SLAB? On that question second place turns.
Crucially for the Scon/Slab is the list vote percentages. SLab have historically had a problem with Lab constituency voters givi g their list vote to fringe parties - this is going to happen to the SNP this time round. Crucial to the 2011 SNP majority was #bothvotessnp. SNP is going to have nightmare time picking up list seats.
If you believe the Polling then not only will Scon list vote hold up it may actually out peform their constituency vote which will lock up a very decent chunk of list seats.
The SNP will get very few List MSPs because of the overwhelming efficiency of their vote in the constituencies, far fewer than the last time. I suspect that the list votes for the SNP will not be very important this time around. The SNP should win enough constituencies to give them a majority.
Yeah, that's a real feature of Scotland, the press and the BBC being supplicants and tools of the SNP.
The SNP are the establishment...
Scotland’s freedom of information watchdog bowed to behind-the-scenes pressure from the Scottish Government to conceal information about legal advice on college tuition fees
The National sold 100K daily when it started? A bold claim. A link?
The popularity of the title – before launch 9,000 digital editions had been sold, priced at £1.50 a week – resulted in Newsquest upping the print run to 100,000 for Tuesday’s edition.
The leader of the Scottish Conservatives, has predicted her party will beat Labour into third place for the first time in the history of the Holyrood parliament.
I know of at least one victory party the SNP have booked for Friday. Hoping it turns out as joyous as the one this guy was heading for...
ha Ha Ha , only a deluded Tory could come out with such tripe. For sure there will be NO Tory party , though a handful of losers list seats will be trumpeted by them no doubt.
The leader of the Scottish Conservatives, has predicted her party will beat Labour into third place for the first time in the history of the Holyrood parliament.
With just one full day of campaigning left before Thursday’s elections, Ruth Davidson said her party’s internal polling leaves her confident that the Tories will be returned as the official opposition to the SNP.
Jack, any modification of your views about the results of a Clinton v Trump election? I tend to side with your view that Clinton is a shoe-in but am wavering somewhat. I haven't looked it up yet but a maths-inclined non-politico referenced a Stanford probabalistic model to me this weekend that had Trump 90+% to win.
Also, is your Euro-arse showing signs of clenching?
My ARSE4EU has tightened for LEAVE. @MikeK is hoping to stroke it and cause the flood gates to open. Will he be a very lucky chap? .... who can tell ?!? ....
Is it all the mistakes from LEAVE that are causing this effect?
The leader of the Scottish Conservatives, has predicted her party will beat Labour into third place for the first time in the history of the Holyrood parliament.
With just one full day of campaigning left before Thursday’s elections, Ruth Davidson said her party’s internal polling leaves her confident that the Tories will be returned as the official opposition to the SNP.
To what extent is the Tory surge linked to Davidson personally?
I'm wondering whether we should expect the Tory surge to carry over to the next Westminster election in Scotland. If it's about a genuine move back to the Tories (perhaps because unionists who previously voted SNP for their competence in places like the North East, now leaving because independence has become a more realistic prospect), then presumably we should expect gains in Scotland in 2020. If it's more a personal vote for Davidson then presumably it won't carry over much into 2020 since no-one would think she'd be part of a Westminster Tory government.
Get them to vote Ruth first, and then they'll find they are voting Tory and the whole concept won't seem toxic next time round.
Is it a Tory surge or a real surge, we have been here many times.
Terrible idea. That's like electing judges or the CPS - law and order operations can't be political/vote grabbing.
I totally disagree, I think vote grabbing is exacly what policing needs. The client of the police at the moment is HMG. It should be the people. If people want local oiks sorting out and a zero tolerance to graffiti, as opposed to speed traps and people being arrested for offensive tweeting that's what they should have. We will realise sooner or later that people usually know best.
Go to America and see the elections for Judges and State Attorneys elections.
They do not bode well for justice.
The CPS should not decide whether to prosecute or not because they have an election coming ditto, judges and sentencing.
I'm not saying go full America (not dismissing it in this instance either) but in terms of Chief Constables I don't see a drawback.
It's too late to be hankering after some kind of Dixon of Dock Green model of policing in the UK. It never really existed and certainly doesn't now. Today's police are extremely politicised and - dangerously - are largely unaccountable as well.
If it's a swap between overtly political decision making via elections (and with the possibility of change that brings) and overtly political decision making via the whims and personal attitudes of police chiefs (and sometimes under pressure from above), I would prefer the former.
And the same goes for the CPS, which is also a highly politicised institution.
This is getting embarrassing. Hopefully Trump wins conclusively tonight and the republicans can then move on. The "clever" manoeuvring of delegates in States he actually lost seems to have blown up in Cruz's face big time.
Indeed.
However both Cruz and Kasich for the GOP and Sanders for the Dems are now into the "Micawber Phase" - Something will turn up.
Essentially it's now the shadow boxing before the main event - Hillary v Donald .... with Clinton winning by a knock-out in the November match-up.
Eastwood is a Scottish Constituency that I would expect the tories to beat Labour in. That doesn't mean that they will win it of course. The SNP may well come from 3rd. Labour has a majority of 2K but if Ruth's Unionist stich is going to work anywhere it really should be there.
To be honest I am not expecting Labour to win any constituency seats at all. They will recover some of the damage of that from the Lists though. I think Ruth is being a tad optimistic but we shall see.
Eastwood is a Scottish Constituency that I would expect the tories to beat Labour in. That doesn't mean that they will win it of course. The SNP may well come from 3rd. Labour has a majority of 2K but if Ruth's Unionist stich is going to work anywhere it really should be there.
To be honest I am not expecting Labour to win any constituency seats at all. They will recover some of the damage of that from the Lists though. I think Ruth is being a tad optimistic but we shall see.
Optimistic in her prediction of the Tories coming 2nd?
Given the polls will surely be underestimating the Tories a bit (even if not by the same extent as last year) I would've thought it was a near-cert now tbh.
I have lived through too many Scottish tory surges to believe that. This time its different. Well, maybe...
Its a lot more interesting than who comes first anyway. And will the Lib Dems beat the Greens? I hope so, if only so we hear less of Patrick Harvie, one of the most annoying men in the country.
David, It si a toss up between him and Willie, I woudl prefer both to disappear
This is getting embarrassing. Hopefully Trump wins conclusively tonight and the republicans can then move on. The "clever" manoeuvring of delegates in States he actually lost seems to have blown up in Cruz's face big time.
Indeed.
However both Cruz and Kasich for the GOP and Sanders for the Dems are now into the "Micawber Phase" - Something will turn up.
Essentially it's now the shadow boxing before the main event - Hillary v Donald .... with Clinton winning by a knock-out in the November match-up.
Hillary is not the candidate she might have been 8 years ago. And the anti-politics strand is strong. I wouldn't write the Donald off yet.
Just finished a book called "The Loudest Voice in the Room", a biography of Roger Ailes. Fully 1/3 of the volume is footnotes, sources, references etc
Most of the career highlights are more or less well known - mentoring Nixon for the 1968 debates, his time as a theatrical impresario, the hirings and firings and business dealings - some fairly dubious - and the purchasing of upstate NY local newspapers with subsequent battle. Of course the biggie is Fox News.
The one thing I was amazed to find out is that he is a hemophiliac.
Jack, any modification of your views about the results of a Clinton v Trump election? I tend to side with your view that Clinton is a shoe-in but am wavering somewhat. I haven't looked it up yet but a maths-inclined non-politico referenced a Stanford probabalistic model to me this weekend that had Trump 90+% to win.
Also, is your Euro-arse showing signs of clenching?
My ARSE4EU has tightened for LEAVE. @MikeK is hoping to stroke it and cause the flood gates to open. Will he be a very lucky chap? .... who can tell ?!? ....
Is it all the mistakes from LEAVE that are causing this effect?
To some degree, although both sides have hardly covered themselves in glory ....
A few points back and forth appear to make significant inroads but of course it clearly cuts both ways. Much still to play for but REMAIN are still in the driving seat.
Eastwood is a Scottish Constituency that I would expect the tories to beat Labour in. That doesn't mean that they will win it of course. The SNP may well come from 3rd. Labour has a majority of 2K but if Ruth's Unionist stich is going to work anywhere it really should be there.
To be honest I am not expecting Labour to win any constituency seats at all. They will recover some of the damage of that from the Lists though. I think Ruth is being a tad optimistic but we shall see.
Optimistic in her prediction of the Tories coming 2nd?
Given the polls will surely be underestimating the Tories a bit (even if not by the same extent as last year) I would've thought it was a near-cert now tbh.
I have lived through too many Scottish tory surges to believe that. This time its different. Well, maybe...
Its a lot more interesting than who comes first anyway. And will the Lib Dems beat the Greens? I hope so, if only so we hear less of Patrick Harvie, one of the most annoying men in the country.
David, It si a toss up between him and Willie, I woudl prefer both to disappear
Willie is just unbelievably boring. I don't feel the need to hit him.
Jack, any modification of your views about the results of a Clinton v Trump election? I tend to side with your view that Clinton is a shoe-in but am wavering somewhat. I haven't looked it up yet but a maths-inclined non-politico referenced a Stanford probabalistic model to me this weekend that had Trump 90+% to win.
Also, is your Euro-arse showing signs of clenching?
No. Clinton will defeat Trump with ease.
Is your Arse4US so firm because Trump's the candidate or do you think Clinton could have had difficulty against Jeb! (or a generic non-toxic Republican)?
Guido indicating the HAC are to investigate antisemitism and Corbyn with Livingstone head the queue. That should be interesting. Popcorn time methinks
What is the HAC? I'm assuming you don't mean the Honourable Artillery Company......
My first thought as well!
Hope you are feeling better
Thank you, yes - a bit. I don't at least look quite as grey, literally, grey as I did last week.
Mind you, my mood has not been helped by John Lewis's utterly dismal performance today at delivering and failing to install a cooker and take the old one away. They are getting the hairdryer treatment from me........
@Cyclefree Tweet your displeasure and namecheck @JLcustserv - I had repeated problems last year with a delivery and they did very well sorting it all out. They do monitor their tweets.
This is getting embarrassing. Hopefully Trump wins conclusively tonight and the republicans can then move on. The "clever" manoeuvring of delegates in States he actually lost seems to have blown up in Cruz's face big time.
Indeed.
However both Cruz and Kasich for the GOP and Sanders for the Dems are now into the "Micawber Phase" - Something will turn up.
Essentially it's now the shadow boxing before the main event - Hillary v Donald .... with Clinton winning by a knock-out in the November match-up.
Hillary is not the candidate she might have been 8 years ago. And the anti-politics strand is strong. I wouldn't write the Donald off yet.
I do write Trump off.
Hillary's negatives are bad enough but Trump's are diabolical. In a binary choice Clinton has all the advantages and Trump an interesting hair style.
Trump adherents must answer the critical question of how he wins the swings states with his essentially angry core male WWC strategy?
What time is the count on Thursday? I see somwhere it says that the London result will only be known Friday afternoon - not counting till next day, or just slow with all those ballots to sort and multiple rounds?
Ted Cruz: "Trump lies practically every word that comes out of his mouth. He is a narcissist on a level this country has never seen. He's such a narcissist that Barack Obama looks at him and says 'Dude what's your problem'"
What time is the count on Thursday? I see somwhere it says that the London result will only be known Friday afternoon - not counting till next day, or just slow with all those ballots to sort and multiple rounds?
Pretty sure the Mayor result is just counted the next day but don't the assembly votes get counted on the night?
The discount probably doesn't affect things for the average prosperous PBer, but do give it a look (hoping the discount will help shove it a bit higher up the rankings, so more people see it). Not to mention it's a rather good book.
Jack, any modification of your views about the results of a Clinton v Trump election? I tend to side with your view that Clinton is a shoe-in but am wavering somewhat. I haven't looked it up yet but a maths-inclined non-politico referenced a Stanford probabalistic model to me this weekend that had Trump 90+% to win.
Also, is your Euro-arse showing signs of clenching?
No. Clinton will defeat Trump with ease.
Is your Arse4US so firm because Trump's the candidate or do you think Clinton could have had difficulty against Jeb! (or a generic non-toxic Republican)?
My ARSE4US determination is solely based on the Trump/Clinton matchup, that has been the call for many months in the same fashion as it determined Obama/McCain in 08 and Obama/Romney in 12 early on.
Ted Cruz: "Trump lies practically every word that comes out of his mouth. He is a narcissist on a level this country has never seen. He's such a narcissist that Barack Obama looks at him and says 'Dude what's your problem'"
Jack, any modification of your views about the results of a Clinton v Trump election? I tend to side with your view that Clinton is a shoe-in but am wavering somewhat. I haven't looked it up yet but a maths-inclined non-politico referenced a Stanford probabalistic model to me this weekend that had Trump 90+% to win.
Also, is your Euro-arse showing signs of clenching?
No. Clinton will defeat Trump with ease.
Is your Arse4US so firm because Trump's the candidate or do you think Clinton could have had difficulty against Jeb! (or a generic non-toxic Republican)?
My ARSE4US determination is solely based on the Trump/Clinton matchup, that has been the call for many months in the same fashion as it determined Obama/McCain in 08 and Obama/Romney in 12 early on.
Interesting. I stand by my prediction that you will go wobbly around August.
In the head-to-head polling they almost reached crossover last year before the Republicans started going negative against Trump. I think you're underestimating how much the dynamic will change once the party embraces him as the candidate. Trump has outsmarted everyone so far and I'm confident in his ability to pivot away from an 'angry core male WWC strategy'.
This is getting embarrassing. Hopefully Trump wins conclusively tonight and the republicans can then move on. The "clever" manoeuvring of delegates in States he actually lost seems to have blown up in Cruz's face big time.
Indeed.
However both Cruz and Kasich for the GOP and Sanders for the Dems are now into the "Micawber Phase" - Something will turn up.
Essentially it's now the shadow boxing before the main event - Hillary v Donald .... with Clinton winning by a knock-out in the November match-up.
Hillary is not the candidate she might have been 8 years ago. And the anti-politics strand is strong. I wouldn't write the Donald off yet.
I do write Trump off.
Hillary's negatives are bad enough but Trump's are diabolical. In a binary choice Clinton has all the advantages and Trump an interesting hair style.
Trump adherents must answer the critical question of how he wins the swings states with his essentially angry core male WWC strategy?
Trump will get more votes than Romney did and Hillary will get fewer than Obama did, so Trump will win the Presidency.
This is getting embarrassing. Hopefully Trump wins conclusively tonight and the republicans can then move on. The "clever" manoeuvring of delegates in States he actually lost seems to have blown up in Cruz's face big time.
Indeed.
However both Cruz and Kasich for the GOP and Sanders for the Dems are now into the "Micawber Phase" - Something will turn up.
Essentially it's now the shadow boxing before the main event - Hillary v Donald .... with Clinton winning by a knock-out in the November match-up.
Hillary is not the candidate she might have been 8 years ago. And the anti-politics strand is strong. I wouldn't write the Donald off yet.
I do write Trump off.
Hillary's negatives are bad enough but Trump's are diabolical. In a binary choice Clinton has all the advantages and Trump an interesting hair style.
Trump adherents must answer the critical question of how he wins the swings states with his essentially angry core male WWC strategy?
Agreed. The best the GOP can hope for in November is that by some miracle they can keep the Senate, let alone take the Presidency, and I wouldn't rule out Trump costing them the House now. I don't think they'll lose it because it's so gerrymandered in their favour, but it is no longer out of the realms of possibility.
The Jewish scholar & historian from whom Naz Shah re-posted the 'move Israel to USA' image expresses a view. I'm sure all fans of free speech will approve.
'Finkelstein Breaks His Silence. Tells Holocaust-Mongers, “It is time to crawl back into your sewer!”'
PBers may recall that in the 12 months leading up to last year's General Election, every Friday morning I would faithfully update them with the latest seats forecast for each of the major parties (as the LibDems were then still laughingly referred to as being), prepared by Elections Etc (aka Prof. Stephen Fisher of Oxford University and his team).
I have discovered that Prof. Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks have recently embarked on producing forecasts for the forthcoming EU referendum, which was most recently updated last Wednesday 27 April showing in summary REMAIN as having a 70% chance of winning, with LEAVE thereby having just a 30% chance:
Supporters of LEAVE shouldn't perhaps be too down-hearted by such a forecast, especially bearing in mind that this much respected, high-powered academic group of experts in their final Election Day forecast issued on 7 May 2015 made Ed Miiband the clear favourite to become the new Prime Minister with a 58% chance, compared with Cameron's 42% chance. We all know what happened after that ...... within 24 hours later, Miliband was out, finished and Dave had an overall majority in the HoC.
The next Fisher/Shorrocks updated weekly forecast is due out tomorrow, Wednesday, and if I can summon up the enthusiasm and no one beats me to it, I will report again on their headline findings.
Labour Voter: "You are absolutely dreadful; I can't believe what you've done. Corbyn is an absolute joke, his leadership is abysmal and his management of the party an absolute outrage." Canvasser: "Can I count on your vote?" Labour Voter: "Yeah, I always vote Labour."
Funny thing is in many places that is literally what the case may be. That's tribal voting for you, whoever it is for.
This is getting embarrassing. Hopefully Trump wins conclusively tonight and the republicans can then move on. The "clever" manoeuvring of delegates in States he actually lost seems to have blown up in Cruz's face big time.
Indeed.
However both Cruz and Kasich for the GOP and Sanders for the Dems are now into the "Micawber Phase" - Something will turn up.
Essentially it's now the shadow boxing before the main event - Hillary v Donald .... with Clinton winning by a knock-out in the November match-up.
Hillary is not the candidate she might have been 8 years ago. And the anti-politics strand is strong. I wouldn't write the Donald off yet.
I do write Trump off.
Hillary's negatives are bad enough but Trump's are diabolical. In a binary choice Clinton has all the advantages and Trump an interesting hair style.
Trump adherents must answer the critical question of how he wins the swings states with his essentially angry core male WWC strategy?
Trump will get more votes than Romney did and Hillary will get fewer than Obama did, so Trump will win the Presidency.
Are all pensioners placed by polling companies in the "E" category of non working?
Using today's ICM;
DEs by Tenure:
Council Tenant 29% Outright Homeowner 25% Mortgagor 21% Housing Association 12% Private renter 11% Rent Free 2%
DEs by Work Status
F/T Work 20% State Pension 20% Jobseeker 15% Economically Inactive 13% Homemaker 11% P/T Work 10% Private Pension 6% Students 5%
72% of all state pensioners were placed in category DE. Only 8.7% of the private pensioners were.
At a complete guess, I'd imagine that older DE's, especially homeowners, are the ones who vote.
Part time workers, students, unemployed, homemakers - all show predominant Labour leaning on vote intention alongside an age profile that shows decreased likelihood to vote in both the gender and age tables.
This is getting embarrassing. Hopefully Trump wins conclusively tonight and the republicans can then move on. The "clever" manoeuvring of delegates in States he actually lost seems to have blown up in Cruz's face big time.
Indeed.
However both Cruz and Kasich for the GOP and Sanders for the Dems are now into the "Micawber Phase" - Something will turn up.
Essentially it's now the shadow boxing before the main event - Hillary v Donald .... with Clinton winning by a knock-out in the November match-up.
Hillary is not the candidate she might have been 8 years ago. And the anti-politics strand is strong. I wouldn't write the Donald off yet.
I do write Trump off.
Hillary's negatives are bad enough but Trump's are diabolical. In a binary choice Clinton has all the advantages and Trump an interesting hair style.
Trump adherents must answer the critical question of how he wins the swings states with his essentially angry core male WWC strategy?
Trump will get more votes than Romney did and Hillary will get fewer than Obama did, so Trump will win the Presidency.
Also, is your Euro-arse showing signs of clenching?
No. Clinton will defeat Trump with ease.
Is your Arse4US so firm because Trump's the candidate or do you think Clinton could have had difficulty against Jeb! (or a generic non-toxic Republican)?
aaaa
Interesting. I stand by my prediction that you will go wobbly around August.
In the head-to-head polling they almost reached crossover last year before the Republicans started going negative against Trump. I think you're underestimating how much the dynamic will change once the party embraces him as the candidate. Trump has outsmarted everyone so far and I'm confident in his ability to pivot away from an 'angry core male WWC strategy'.
The ARSE has no history of "wobbly"
I'm still waiting for McCain and Romney to pivot as I was reliably told would happen .... Trump would need to pivot so much he'd be the envy of Torvill and Dean in their majesty.
This is getting embarrassing. Hopefully Trump wins conclusively tonight and the republicans can then move on. The "clever" manoeuvring of delegates in States he actually lost seems to have blown up in Cruz's face big time.
Indeed.
However both Cruz and Kasich for the GOP and Sanders for the Dems are now into the "Micawber Phase" - Something will turn up.
Essentially it's now the shadow boxing before the main event - Hillary v Donald .... with Clinton winning by a knock-out in the November match-up.
Hillary is not the candidate she might have been 8 years ago. And the anti-politics strand is strong. I wouldn't write the Donald off yet.
I do write Trump off.
Hillary's negatives are bad enough but Trump's are diabolical. In a binary choice Clinton has all the advantages and Trump an interesting hair style.
Trump adherents must answer the critical question of how he wins the swings states with his essentially angry core male WWC strategy?
Trump will get more votes than Romney did and Hillary will get fewer than Obama did, so Trump will win the Presidency.
Where will Trump get "more votes" from .... down the back of the GOP sofa or the magic electoral tree at the end of the garden?
This is getting embarrassing. Hopefully Trump wins conclusively tonight and the republicans can then move on. The "clever" manoeuvring of delegates in States he actually lost seems to have blown up in Cruz's face big time.
Indeed.
However both Cruz and Kasich for the GOP and Sanders for the Dems are now into the "Micawber Phase" - Something will turn up.
Essentially it's now the shadow boxing before the main event - Hillary v Donald .... with Clinton winning by a knock-out in the November match-up.
Hillary is not the candidate she might have been 8 years ago. And the anti-politics strand is strong. I wouldn't write the Donald off yet.
I do write Trump off.
Hillary's negatives are bad enough but Trump's are diabolical. In a binary choice Clinton has all the advantages and Trump an interesting hair style.
Trump adherents must answer the critical question of how he wins the swings states with his essentially angry core male WWC strategy?
Trump will get more votes than Romney did and Hillary will get fewer than Obama did, so Trump will win the Presidency.
Why will Trump get more votes?
'Cos more people will vote for him...
I think that MDC may be right. Hillary will almost certainly get fewer votes than Obama. And Romney is bloody awful. Admittedly Trump is probably worse, but in different ways.
My money's on Trump, but in part that's a sort of hedge against the deep fears that the whole idea of him being in charge engenders.
PBers may recall that in the 12 months leading up to last year's General Election, every Friday morning I would faithfully update them with the latest seats forecast for each of the major parties (as the LibDems were then still laughingly referred to as being), prepared by Elections Etc (aka Prof. Stephen Fisher of Oxford University and his team).
I have discovered that Prof. Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks have recently embarked on producing forecasts for the forthcoming EU referendum, which was most recently updated last Wednesday 27 April showing in summary REMAIN as having a 70% chance of winning, with LEAVE thereby having just a 30% chance:
Supporters of LEAVE shouldn't perhaps be too down-hearted by such a forecast, especially bearing in mind that this much respected, high-powered academic group of experts in their final Election Day forecast issued on 7 May 2015 made Ed Miiband the clear favourite to become the new Prime Minister with a 58% chance, compared with Cameron's 42% chance. We all know what happened after that ...... within 24 hours later, Miliband was out, finished and Dave had an overall majority in the HoC.
The next Fisher/Shorrocks updated weekly forecast is due out tomorrow, Wednesday, and if I can summon up the enthusiasm and no one beats me to it, I will report again on their headline findings.
Their model was dependent upon accurate polling information tracking the swing to the governing party that they predicted by reference to past results. Regrettably, it turned into RIRO. Not their fault and it is ironic that their early forecasts based on past behaviour were very much in the right ball park but given that so few trust polling anymore I am not sure how the model can be fixed.
Labour Voter: "You are absolutely dreadful; I can't believe what you've done. Corbyn is an absolute joke, his leadership is abysmal and his management of the party an absolute outrage." Canvasser: "Can I count on your vote?" Labour Voter: "Yeah, I always vote Labour."
Funny thing is in many places that is literally what the case may be. That's tribal voting for you, whoever it is for.
I was chatting to a Labour voter at work today. He thought that Ken's comments were historically correct and like some on here only the right capable of racism.
Diplomatically I had to put him right on both scores.
Opinium finds that Zac Goldsmith’s lead in outer London has shrunk to almost nothing. https://t.co/Uok8cz7zeZ
This really isn't going to be close is it?
With a good campaign, he might have had a respectable loss. As it is, he's probably going to be seriously embarrassed.
The trouble is the more he opens his mouth (or at least allows people to quote him in flyers or articles) the more I think he deserves to lose badly. It really is no way to run a campaign.
At a complete guess, I'd imagine that older DE's, especially homeowners, are the ones who vote.
Part time workers, students, unemployed, homemakers - all show predominant Labour leaning on vote intention alongside an age profile that shows decreased likelihood to vote in both the gender and age tables.
Claimed 2015 Turnout in ICM Sample:
Private Pensioners 88% (Leave) State Pensioners 88% (Leave) Full Time Work 78% (Remain) Part Time Work 72% (Remain) Homemakers 68% (Leave) Jobseekers 65% (Remain) Economically Inactive 64% (Remain) Students 59% (Remain)
Also, is your Euro-arse showing signs of clenching?
No. Clinton will defeat Trump with ease.
Is your Arse4US so firm because Trump's the candidate or do you think Clinton could have had difficulty against Jeb! (or a generic non-toxic Republican)?
aaaa
Interesting. I stand by my prediction that you will go wobbly around August.
In the head-to-head polling they almost reached crossover last year before the Republicans started going negative against Trump. I think you're underestimating how much the dynamic will change once the party embraces him as the candidate. Trump has outsmarted everyone so far and I'm confident in his ability to pivot away from an 'angry core male WWC strategy'.
The ARSE has no history of "wobbly"
I'm still waiting for McCain and Romney to pivot as I was reliably told would happen .... Trump would need to pivot so much he'd be the envy of Torvill and Dean in their majesty.
McCain pivoted off his trolley by selecting Sarah Palin and Romney was an uncharismatic stiff. I wouldn't make any predictions about Trump based on their failures.
Also, is your Euro-arse showing signs of clenching?
No. Clinton will defeat Trump with ease.
Is your Arse4US so firm because Trump's the candidate or do you think Clinton could have had difficulty against Jeb! (or a generic non-toxic Republican)?
aaaa
Interesting. I stand by my prediction that you will go wobbly around August.
In the head-to-head polling they almost reached crossover last year before the Republicans started going negative against Trump. I think you're underestimating how much the dynamic will change once the party embraces him as the candidate. Trump has outsmarted everyone so far and I'm confident in his ability to pivot away from an 'angry core male WWC strategy'.
The ARSE has no history of "wobbly"
I'm still waiting for McCain and Romney to pivot as I was reliably told would happen .... Trump would need to pivot so much he'd be the envy of Torvill and Dean in their majesty.
McCain pivoted off his trolley by selecting Sarah Palin and Romney was an uncharismatic stiff. I wouldn't make any predictions about Trump based on their failures.
Yeah but .... yeah but .... Trump is already off his trolley ....
What time is the count on Thursday? I see somwhere it says that the London result will only be known Friday afternoon - not counting till next day, or just slow with all those ballots to sort and multiple rounds?
At a complete guess, I'd imagine that older DE's, especially homeowners, are the ones who vote.
Part time workers, students, unemployed, homemakers - all show predominant Labour leaning on vote intention alongside an age profile that shows decreased likelihood to vote in both the gender and age tables.
Claimed 2015 Turnout in ICM Sample:
Private Pensioners 88% (Leave) State Pensioners 88% (Leave) Full Time Work 78% (Remain) Part Time Work 72% (Remain) Homemakers 68% (Leave) Jobseekers 65% (Remain) Economically Inactive 64% (Remain) Students 59% (Remain)
all we need now is their percentage of the electorate ... Although I guess that is implicit in the adjusted turnout figures in the poll
I didn't realise that MPAC have advised muslims to not vote for Sadiq Khan.
it said Mr Khan’s “pro-Israel credentials” were clear, adding: “If you vote for Sadiq Khan you are approving of his pro-Israel comments – which he feels comfortable in making because he doesn’t think he has to work for the Muslim vote (because he thinks the majority of you are going to blindly vote for him just because he’s Muslim and/or Labour). “Unless Muslims hold Khan to account, he will continue to show his support for the apartheid state of Israel. “A vote for Sadiq Khan…will be a vote for Israel.”
The Jewish scholar & historian from whom Naz Shah re-posted the 'move Israel to USA' image expresses a view. I'm sure all fans of free speech will approve.
'Finkelstein Breaks His Silence. Tells Holocaust-Mongers, “It is time to crawl back into your sewer!”'
Also, is your Euro-arse showing signs of clenching?
No. Clinton will defeat Trump with ease.
Is your Arse4US so firm because Trump's the candidate or do you think Clinton could have had difficulty against Jeb! (or a generic non-toxic Republican)?
aaaa
Interesting. I stand by my prediction that you will go wobbly around August.
In the head-to-head polling they almost reached crossover last year before the Republicans started going negative against Trump. I think you're underestimating how much the dynamic will change once the party embraces him as the candidate. Trump has outsmarted everyone so far and I'm confident in his ability to pivot away from an 'angry core male WWC strategy'.
The ARSE has no history of "wobbly"
I'm still waiting for McCain and Romney to pivot as I was reliably told would happen .... Trump would need to pivot so much he'd be the envy of Torvill and Dean in their majesty.
McCain pivoted off his trolley by selecting Sarah Palin and Romney was an uncharismatic stiff. I wouldn't make any predictions about Trump based on their failures.
Yeah but .... yeah but .... Trump is already off his trolley ....
Crazy like a fox is how the yanks would put it. I'm mystified by your soft spot for Hillary who has struggled to beat a geriatric communist clown.
The Jewish scholar & historian from whom Naz Shah re-posted the 'move Israel to USA' image expresses a view. I'm sure all fans of free speech will approve.
'Finkelstein Breaks His Silence. Tells Holocaust-Mongers, “It is time to crawl back into your sewer!”'
This is getting embarrassing. Hopefully Trump wins conclusively tonight and the republicans can then move on. The "clever" manoeuvring of delegates in States he actually lost seems to have blown up in Cruz's face big time.
Indeed.
However both Cruz and Kasich for the GOP and Sanders for the Dems are now into the "Micawber Phase" - Something will turn up.
Essentially it's now the shadow boxing before the main event - Hillary v Donald .... with Clinton winning by a knock-out in the November match-up.
Hillary is not the candidate she might have been 8 years ago. And the anti-politics strand is strong. I wouldn't write the Donald off yet.
I do write Trump off.
Hillary's negatives are bad enough but Trump's are diabolical. In a binary choice Clinton has all the advantages and Trump an interesting hair style.
Trump adherents must answer the critical question of how he wins the swings states with his essentially angry core male WWC strategy?
Trump will get more votes than Romney did and Hillary will get fewer than Obama did, so Trump will win the Presidency.
Why will Trump get more votes?
'Cos more people will vote for him...
I think that MDC may be right. Hillary will almost certainly get fewer votes than Obama. And Romney is bloody awful. Admittedly Trump is probably worse, but in different ways.
My money's on Trump, but in part that's a sort of hedge against the deep fears that the whole idea of him being in charge engenders.
More people voted for Gore !!
To paraphrase .... "It's the swing states stupid"
1. My advice to PBers - Watch the swing state polling from 538.com premier list of pollsters and scrutinize the crosstabs like @JohnO does a south coast railway timetable ....
Comments
Hamas denies 'welcoming' Corbyn's pledge to negotiate with all sides
https://twitter.com/MiddleEastEye/status/727534627653582848
If so, Livingstone-gate might've pushed over some Labour voters to the Tories there, which would help their chances.
Given the polls will surely be underestimating the Tories a bit (even if not by the same extent as last year) I would've thought it was a near-cert now tbh.
If it's a swap between overtly political decision making via elections (and with the possibility of change that brings) and overtly political decision making via the whims and personal attitudes of police chiefs (and sometimes under pressure from above), I would prefer the former.
And the same goes for the CPS, which is also a highly politicised institution.
http://hurryupharry.org/2016/05/03/trump-supporters-target-jewish-journalists/
Geographically the Westminster constituency is a mess, so is the Holyrood constituency ina different way but crucially it contains East Dumfries and environs that the Westminster constituency does not.
Also in 2015 Mundell Snr was the incumbent, in 2016 Mundell Jr is the challenger whilst the Labour candidate is a 1999 continuous occupant, one of only a few I would imagine.
Its a lot more interesting than who comes first anyway. And will the Lib Dems beat the Greens? I hope so, if only so we hear less of Patrick Harvie, one of the most annoying men in the country.
Trump 56 .. Cruz 22 .. Kasich 14 .... Sample 3,479
Clinton 54 .. Sanders 40 .... Sample 4,418
Clinton 43 .. Trump 37
Clinton 44 .. Cruz 30
Sample 14,460
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-s-lead-continues-grow-nationally-poll-n566181
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
Who knows? Not me.
Agree about Mr Harvie.
Not just any Lib Dem - former researcher to Charles Kennedy, former SDP candidate, co-editor of the Orange Book.
Also, is your Euro-arse showing signs of clenching?
Trump 56 .. Cruz 20 .. Kasich 13
Clinton 51 .. Sanders 38
Clinton 45 .. Trump 40
Clinton 43 .. Kasich 37
Clinton 46 .. Cruz 33
Sanders 50 .. Trump 39
Sanders 50 .. Kasich 30
Sanders 52 .. Cruz 29
https://morningconsult.com/2016/05/donald-trump-hits-new-high-among-gop-voters/
Clinton 56 .. Trump 30
https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY42416_Crosstabs_7149.pdf
At the moment Labour have 38 seats and the Tories 15. I can just about imagine a 10 seat swing to the Tories putting them on 25 and Labour 28. More than that is quite hard to imagine, frankly and it would be a shame if what would be a considerable achievement looked like some sort of a failure.
One Tory MSP made a good comment a while ago now. He said that the Tories have a ceiling but that Labour doesn't have a floor. That is what this is really about. Who can be bothered to vote for SLAB? On that question second place turns.
Hope you are feeling better
National polling is useful but the Electoral College is determined by FPTP in swing states. Yesterday we had Florida and North Carolina polls that were truly horrible for Trump especially in his "home state" (after New York) of Florida. He is being crushed by devastating negatives among Latinos.
Repeated elsewhere and Nevada, Colorado are gone and Arizona in play.
My ARSE4EU has tightened for LEAVE. @MikeK is hoping to stroke it and cause the flood gates to open. Will he be a very lucky chap? .... who can tell ?!? ....
If you believe the Polling then not only will Scon list vote hold up it may actually out peform their constituency vote which will lock up a very decent chunk of list seats.
He is not too bright
Trump 54 .. Cruz 20 .. Kasich 16
Clinton 57 .. Sanders 38
Clinton 56 .. Trump 34
Clinton 57 .. Cruz 29
Clinton 53 .. Kasich 34
http://abc7.com/politics/poll-ca-voters-resigned-to-vote-for-donald-trump-vs-hillary-clinton/1318792/
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/whos-winning-indiana-its-anybodys-guess-222711
Some interesting tweets from SeanT in Lyon:
https://twitter.com/thomasknox
However both Cruz and Kasich for the GOP and Sanders for the Dems are now into the "Micawber Phase" - Something will turn up.
Essentially it's now the shadow boxing before the main event - Hillary v Donald .... with Clinton winning by a knock-out in the November match-up.
Most of the career highlights are more or less well known - mentoring Nixon for the 1968 debates, his time as a theatrical impresario, the hirings and firings and business dealings - some fairly dubious - and the purchasing of upstate NY local newspapers with subsequent battle. Of course the biggie is Fox News.
The one thing I was amazed to find out is that he is a hemophiliac.
A few points back and forth appear to make significant inroads but of course it clearly cuts both ways. Much still to play for but REMAIN are still in the driving seat.
Thank you, yes - a bit. I don't at least look quite as grey, literally, grey as I did last week.
Mind you, my mood has not been helped by John Lewis's utterly dismal performance today at delivering and failing to install a cooker and take the old one away. They are getting the hairdryer treatment from me........
Hillary's negatives are bad enough but Trump's are diabolical. In a binary choice Clinton has all the advantages and Trump an interesting hair style.
Trump adherents must answer the critical question of how he wins the swings states with his essentially angry core male WWC strategy?
http://abc7ny.com/politics/cruz-calls-trump-amoral-and-a-braggadocios-arrogant-buffoon/1320293/
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Haunting-Lake-Manor-Hotel-ebook/dp/B01DQEDAEE/
The discount probably doesn't affect things for the average prosperous PBer, but do give it a look (hoping the discount will help shove it a bit higher up the rankings, so more people see it). Not to mention it's a rather good book.
But yes, Khan has this in the bag.
He really is a deeply unpleasant man from whom we will hopefully hear relatively little in the future.
In the head-to-head polling they almost reached crossover last year before the Republicans started going negative against Trump. I think you're underestimating how much the dynamic will change once the party embraces him as the candidate. Trump has outsmarted everyone so far and I'm confident in his ability to pivot away from an 'angry core male WWC strategy'.
'Finkelstein Breaks His Silence. Tells Holocaust-Mongers, “It is time to crawl back into your sewer!”'
http://tinyurl.com/jb35ruu
I guess maybe he could still win given all Ken's help, but I expect him to be a long way off.
Khan is going to be crap. We'll miss Boris!
I have discovered that Prof. Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks have recently embarked on producing forecasts for the forthcoming EU referendum, which was most recently updated last Wednesday 27 April showing in summary REMAIN as having a 70% chance of winning, with LEAVE thereby having just a 30% chance:
https://electionsetc.com/
Supporters of LEAVE shouldn't perhaps be too down-hearted by such a forecast, especially bearing in mind that this much respected, high-powered academic group of experts in their final Election Day forecast issued on 7 May 2015 made Ed Miiband the clear favourite to become the new Prime Minister with a 58% chance, compared with Cameron's 42% chance.
We all know what happened after that ...... within 24 hours later, Miliband was out, finished and Dave had an overall majority in the HoC.
The next Fisher/Shorrocks updated weekly forecast is due out tomorrow, Wednesday, and if I can summon up the enthusiasm and no one beats me to it, I will report again on their headline findings.
Anyway, time for me to be off.
DEs by Tenure:
Council Tenant 29%
Outright Homeowner 25%
Mortgagor 21%
Housing Association 12%
Private renter 11%
Rent Free 2%
DEs by Work Status
F/T Work 20%
State Pension 20%
Jobseeker 15%
Economically Inactive 13%
Homemaker 11%
P/T Work 10%
Private Pension 6%
Students 5%
72% of all state pensioners were placed in category DE. Only 8.7% of the private pensioners were.
At a complete guess, I'd imagine that older DE's, especially homeowners, are the ones who vote.
Part time workers, students, unemployed, homemakers - all show predominant Labour leaning on vote intention alongside an age profile that shows decreased likelihood to vote in both the gender and age tables.
I'm still waiting for McCain and Romney to pivot as I was reliably told would happen .... Trump would need to pivot so much he'd be the envy of Torvill and Dean in their majesty.
I think that MDC may be right. Hillary will almost certainly get fewer votes than Obama. And Romney is bloody awful. Admittedly Trump is probably worse, but in different ways.
My money's on Trump, but in part that's a sort of hedge against the deep fears that the whole idea of him being in charge engenders.
Diplomatically I had to put him right on both scores.
Private Pensioners 88% (Leave)
State Pensioners 88% (Leave)
Full Time Work 78% (Remain)
Part Time Work 72% (Remain)
Homemakers 68% (Leave)
Jobseekers 65% (Remain)
Economically Inactive 64% (Remain)
Students 59% (Remain)
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/local_2016_by_time.php
it said Mr Khan’s “pro-Israel credentials” were clear, adding: “If you vote for Sadiq Khan you are approving of his pro-Israel comments – which he feels comfortable in making because he doesn’t think he has to work for the Muslim vote (because he thinks the majority of you are going to blindly vote for him just because he’s Muslim and/or Labour).
“Unless Muslims hold Khan to account, he will continue to show his support for the apartheid state of Israel.
“A vote for Sadiq Khan…will be a vote for Israel.”
That's pretty much the 2015 GE result in London with the other parties' votes removed.
It's a 47/53 poll before re-weighting.
There's a London specific EURef poll in there too - 60/40 Remain.
@MrHarryCole: EG: " Corbyn spoke at a pro-Hamas rally in 2009, and called it ‘magnificent’."
To paraphrase .... "It's the swing states stupid"
1. My advice to PBers - Watch the swing state polling from 538.com premier list of pollsters and scrutinize the crosstabs like @JohnO does a south coast railway timetable ....
2. Follow the ARSE4US.