I've noticed in recent days the tone from Remain has altered, both on here and elsewhere. The sneering from Meeks and Nabavi along with goading from TSE has disappeared. Not sure why and it may be that other events have taken over but for sure this isn't going the way the way they foresaw.
Wheeling out Blair cannot be a positive, he seems determined to have his say but I'm sure he's a busted flush, a vote loser.
..... and introducing another interfering, post his sell by date former POTUS isn't going to help REMAIN's cause either.
Mentioning Clinton, has anyone determined what his title will be after January next year, or will he - confusingly - continue to be referred to as 'Mr President Clinton', as is customary for ex-POTUS's?
I am sure that he will still be referred to as Mr President Clinton. As for Hillary, it could quite conceivably be "You There!"
An ICM Poll of Muslim Attitudes in Britain accompanied the recent C4 top programme featuring Trevor Phillips.
Basically, between 25% and 40% believe the Jewish have too much power, cause wars, talk about the holocaust too much etc.
Among the wider population those numbers are lower at between 5% and 20%.
The Jewish global conspiracy seems to be a much more prevalent viewpoint among UK Muslims than the general population, of which around 10% (far left/far right?) seem to be of that mind. It is close to 40% among muslims.
@DPJHodges: People tweeting "Goldsmith's campaign's just as bad". Yes. It is. Which means Corbyn has now secured moral equivalence with Tories on race.
If he faced up to the problem in the party he would have to accept that it starts with him. Not just because he is the leader but because he shares and has given legitimacy and support to those holding such vile views.
He's in denial about himself. But from his perspective he thinks he's right and that everyone else is wrong. Why, then, would he change anything?
An ICM Poll of Muslim Attitudes in Britain accompanied the recent C4 top programme featuring Trevor Phillips.
Basically, between 25% and 40% believe the Jewish have too much power, cause wars, talk about the holocaust too much etc.
Among the wider population those numbers are lower at between 5% and 20%.
The Jewish global conspiracy seems to be a much more prevalent viewpoint among UK Muslims than the general population, of which around 10% (far left/far right?) seem to be of that mind. It is close to 40% among muslims.
I am not sure Jews fit the left wing idea of a minority anyway. They are white, have generally integrated into British society, and are as affluent as society in general. While they have a different religion, many wear it lightly and some are secular. Their status as Western Europe's scapegoats and general whipping boys up to 1945 can be ignored by those with little respect for history. I wouldn't be surprised if some left-wing activists see them as no more than an hereditary, affluent clique who can be hated, rather like Tories.
And add that general *like Tories* wink wink to the deep dislike many Muslims have for Jews - it's a toxic mix.
I don't believe Muslims do have a deep dislike for Jews any more than Jews have a deep dislike for Muslims. Both see themselves as minorities and there has always been solidarity among minorites. It's just a guess but I'd be surprised if the labour party doesn't have more jewish members than all other parties put together. The Jews have always been champions of the oppressed. Witness apartheid South Africa.
More utter tripe from Rodger.
I have worked extensively in the Middle East and had 2 passports because to attempt to enter another Middle East country with an Israeli stamp in your passport resulted in serious issues.. Don't even consider trying to enter Saudi. There is a visceral hatred even if you can't see it all the way from your posh pad in France.
Stick to what you know which is the Oscars.
I too have worked often in the Middle East and it's true that if you have 'Israel' stamped on your passport you will need a second passport for the arab countries. But I have never encountered prejudice or seen it.
But these conversations are silly. Who are we talking about? I work with educated people. Far more of the people I work with in the Arab countries are tri lingual and have a university education than would be the case in the UK.
As for Saudi it's another planet. I have shot hair commercials there where you are not permitted to see face and hair in the same shot. When you see the face the hair has to be covered. The set can't have windows which can in any way form a cross or have any pictures on the wall other than script. But the people are very nice. Much nicer than the American clients who are employing me
Roger, I have also worked extensively across North Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, Malaysia and Indonesia. I have worked with many very intelligent Muslims, but I have to say that some of them have very, er, niche views on things such as 9/11. And talking about Israel is not for the faint-hearted.
By the by, the most intolerant person I have ever worked with was a fundamental Christian.
I haven't felt so uncomfortable about British politics since 1984 when Thatcher was running riot and some very unpleasant people were riding on her coat tails. The Bennite/Foot Labour Party was equally unattractive and similarly infiltrated by people with an agenda that was both alien and unpleasant.
One of the sayings I find most often comes true is that 'the dawn follows the darkest night'. In this case though it's in reverse. For the first time for years we had a reasonably benign Tory Party and a Labour Party in transition. Completely unelectable but at least they were being forced to rebuild......
And then in a couple of weeks the Tories self immolated and Labour at their weakest have had the scaffolding pulled from under them by some dark forces as yet unknown..........
Dear God Roger, listen to yourself.
It is self inflicted, it is not a fecking Tory or Mossad plot.
Ted Cruz coming under attack. -from a 12-year old kid
"The trouble started with a 12-year-old in La Porte, Indiana. At a rally there, a boy shouted “You suck!” and “Shut up!” during Cruz’s stump speech, thwarting the senator’s attempts to turn the pubescent heckler into a talking point." - the Guardian
Well good on Zac for belatedly realising the picture was a very poor choice - it was the thing I noticed most about the article. From a slightly weak but well meaning campaign through to something starting to get quite nasty - this campaign feels very different to his "green campaign" that won his parliamentary seat in 2010. Un Zac like.
But the more Labour people associate themselves with terrorists and those who think that suicide bombing is justified (Al Qaradawi, Cage etc) then the greater the risk that people will make that connection in their own minds, regardless of which picture is used.
Even Corbyn himself - post-7/7 - can be seen on video saying, in effect, that the 7/7 bombing was our fault. I don't want people who nominated this man for leadership to be anywhere near the controls of power in London.
If Labour don't want to be thought of as the party which is a bit too cosy with terrorists they should try not cosying up to them. Just a thought.
< I don't think Labour has been in the vanguard of the fight against racism for some time now. It seems to me that it uses racism as a sword to prevent scrutiny of an odious moral and cultural relativity which has led it to fail to make any distinction between the liberal and the illiberal, between the democratic and the authoritarian, between the egalitarian and the misogynist, between the socially liberal and the homophobe, between the tolerant and the intolerant.
An ICM Poll of Muslim Attitudes in Britain accompanied the recent C4 top programme featuring Trevor Phillips.
Basically, between 25% and 40% believe the Jewish have too much power, cause wars, talk about the holocaust too much etc.
Among the wider population those numbers are lower at between 5% and 20%.
The Jewish global conspiracy seems to be a much more prevalent viewpoint among UK Muslims than the general population, of which around 10% (far left/far right?) seem to be of that mind. It is close to 40% among muslims.
Wow. a ten-point lead would get him the nomination, 15 points would get 90% of the delegates.
That lot sums through to 90%.
Assuming Trump + Cruz + Kasich = 99%, that indicates 60% for Trump. A dominating landslide victory winning every single California delegate heading into Cleveland.
I wonder if Trump can pull an upset in one of the states "nailed on" for Cruz.
I think Trump could well win Washington - Nebraska may well be very close now.
Montana and South Dakota the only Cruz certs still.
Hmm I've still not received my PCC postal vote. Seems I'll be disenfranchised for this election - not too fussed as it is the PCC, but I ticked the box for postal votes at all future and I'd quite fancy a vote on Brexit or Remain...
You can visit your local council that administers elections and they can reissue a postal vote. This can be done up until the day.
Wow. a ten-point lead would get him the nomination, 15 points would get 90% of the delegates.
That lot sums through to 90%.
Assuming Trump + Cruz + Kasich = 99%, that indicates 60% for Trump. A dominating landslide victory winning every single California delegate heading into Cleveland.
I wonder if Trump can pull an upset in one of the states "nailed on" for Cruz.
Is it my imagination or has Rubio offered his delegates to Trump?
Wow. a ten-point lead would get him the nomination, 15 points would get 90% of the delegates.
That lot sums through to 90%.
Assuming Trump + Cruz + Kasich = 99%, that indicates 60% for Trump. A dominating landslide victory winning every single California delegate heading into Cleveland.
I wonder if Trump can pull an upset in one of the states "nailed on" for Cruz.
The first state to prove me wrong will probably be Washington, as Trump turns that into a winner takes most state.
Hmm I've still not received my PCC postal vote. Seems I'll be disenfranchised for this election - not too fussed as it is the PCC, but I ticked the box for postal votes at all future and I'd quite fancy a vote on Brexit or Remain...
You can visit your local council that administers elections and they can reissue a postal vote. This can be done up until the day.
I know, I don't have time now though as I have a flight to catch tommorow
An ICM Poll of Muslim Attitudes in Britain accompanied the recent C4 top programme featuring Trevor Phillips.
Basically, between 25% and 40% believe the Jewish have too much power, cause wars, talk about the holocaust too much etc.
Among the wider population those numbers are lower at between 5% and 20%.
The Jewish global conspiracy seems to be a much more prevalent viewpoint among UK Muslims than the general population, of which around 10% (far left/far right?) seem to be of that mind. It is close to 40% among muslims.
While Tony's presence on the Remain bench can only help us, I suspect Bill remains popular in the UK, and that he is more likely to strike a chord with voters than Obama. Fortunately, I think he'll probably be busy with his wife's re-election campaign.
I don't believe Clinton is popular with people most likely to vote.
This is going to be all about who feels most strongly, there's no doubt the younger generation favour Remain but in the middle of the Euros they'll be too busy painting their faces and watching football in pubs.
PBers discuss nuances, the wider electorate is far more simplistic.
It will be fascinating when people start putting up posters. I expect LEAVE to be W-A-Y more visible.
After all, who wants to shout their allegiance to the EU?
If he faced up to the problem in the party he would have to accept that it starts with him. Not just because he is the leader but because he shares and has given legitimacy and support to those holding such vile views.
He's in denial about himself. But from his perspective he thinks he's right and that everyone else is wrong. Why, then, would he change anything?
When electing a fossil from the 70s as leader, it should come as no surprise that 70s attitudes to casual racism/anti-Semitism should follow. – Corbyn is neither qualified nor motivated enough to stamp this out, I doubt he even accepts its presence within the party.
Wow. a ten-point lead would get him the nomination, 15 points would get 90% of the delegates.
Yes, it's all over isn't it? Far from being a consolidating of strength, the Cruz-Kasich deal has been revealed for what it was: an admission of weakness. By linking with each other, it was always likely that they'd be tainted by the association and accused of selling out. Funny that the campaign's gone so deep before consensus was arrived at but that's where it is now.
Wow. a ten-point lead would get him the nomination, 15 points would get 90% of the delegates.
That lot sums through to 90%.
Assuming Trump + Cruz + Kasich = 99%, that indicates 60% for Trump. A dominating landslide victory winning every single California delegate heading into Cleveland.
I wonder if Trump can pull an upset in one of the states "nailed on" for Cruz.
The first state to prove me wrong will probably be Washington, as Trump turns that into a winner takes most state.
Well good on Zac for belatedly realising the picture was a very poor choice - it was the thing I noticed most about the article. From a slightly weak but well meaning campaign through to something starting to get quite nasty - this campaign feels very different to his "green campaign" that won his parliamentary seat in 2010. Un Zac like.
On entirely objective terms it's not the wrong campaign, it's the wrong candidate. I'm pretty sure that under the guiding hand of Sir Lynton, Boris would have equivocated and wheedled and blustered, but still squeezed some benefit from the dog whistling. Goldsmith just looks like an empty vessel being filled with someone else's shyte.
I don't think Labour has been in the vanguard of the fight against racism for some time now. It seems to me that it uses racism as a sword to prevent scrutiny of an odious moral and cultural relativity which has led it to fail to make any distinction between the liberal and the illiberal, between the democratic and the authoritarian, between the egalitarian and the misogynist, between the socially liberal and the homophobe, between the tolerant and the intolerant.
Or more simply, between right and wrong (or, at least, between better and worse). It was an excuse for jettisoning moral judgement in general. And if you fail to judge then don't be surprised if you end up with some who don't share your values but do appreciate the potential of your political machine.
Wow. a ten-point lead would get him the nomination, 15 points would get 90% of the delegates.
That lot sums through to 90%.
Assuming Trump + Cruz + Kasich = 99%, that indicates 60% for Trump. A dominating landslide victory winning every single California delegate heading into Cleveland.
I wonder if Trump can pull an upset in one of the states "nailed on" for Cruz.
The first state to prove me wrong will probably be Washington, as Trump turns that into a winner takes most state.
Sam Wang estimates 1340 delegates for Trump.
Bound or on the first ballot? The latter I could easily imagine.
Wow. a ten-point lead would get him the nomination, 15 points would get 90% of the delegates.
That lot sums through to 90%.
Assuming Trump + Cruz + Kasich = 99%, that indicates 60% for Trump. A dominating landslide victory winning every single California delegate heading into Cleveland.
I wonder if Trump can pull an upset in one of the states "nailed on" for Cruz.
Is it my imagination or has Rubio offered his delegates to Trump?
He can release them now. Rubio's mind has turned into beating Hillary in November now, only a united GOP can achieve that - and much as he obviously dislikes Trump - HRC is the greater threat.
Wow. a ten-point lead would get him the nomination, 15 points would get 90% of the delegates.
That lot sums through to 90%.
Assuming Trump + Cruz + Kasich = 99%, that indicates 60% for Trump. A dominating landslide victory winning every single California delegate heading into Cleveland.
I wonder if Trump can pull an upset in one of the states "nailed on" for Cruz.
The first state to prove me wrong will probably be Washington, as Trump turns that into a winner takes most state.
Sam Wang estimates 1340 delegates for Trump.
Bound or on the first ballot? The latter I could easily imagine.
He includes an estimate of 80% of all PA unbound in that total. So the bound estimate is 1296 I think.
While Tony's presence on the Remain bench can only help us, I suspect Bill remains popular in the UK, and that he is more likely to strike a chord with voters than Obama. Fortunately, I think he'll probably be busy with his wife's re-election campaign.
I don't believe Clinton is popular with people most likely to vote.
This is going to be all about who feels most strongly, there's no doubt the younger generation favour Remain but in the middle of the Euros they'll be too busy painting their faces and watching football in pubs.
PBers discuss nuances, the wider electorate is far more simplistic.
It will be fascinating when people start putting up posters. I expect LEAVE to be W-A-Y more visible.
After all, who wants to shout their allegiance to the EU?
I'm sure the EYoons will use the well-worn trope that it's fear of a brick through the window preventing them from publicly displaying their loyalty.
Wow. a ten-point lead would get him the nomination, 15 points would get 90% of the delegates.
That lot sums through to 90%.
Assuming Trump + Cruz + Kasich = 99%, that indicates 60% for Trump. A dominating landslide victory winning every single California delegate heading into Cleveland.
I wonder if Trump can pull an upset in one of the states "nailed on" for Cruz.
Is it my imagination or has Rubio offered his delegates to Trump?
He can release them now. Rubio's mind has turned into beating Hillary in November now, only a united GOP can achieve that - and much as he obviously dislikes Trump - HRC is the greater threat.
Polls in Indiana close tonight at 11 in the EDT areas and midnight in the CDT areas (areas around Evansville and Gary). So we should have confirmation Trump will sweep all the delegates with 50% plus early enough here. Interesting to watch out for the number of votes for Trump and the Republicans as against Clinton and the Democrats.
The economic and Norpoth models predict about a 5 point win by Trump so let us see which states Trump is likely to flip. A ten point swing will flip a lot. http://www.isidewith.com/map/JNty/2016-presidential-election-donald-trump-vs-hillary-clinton#z4 Reaffirms FL and NV will be easy pickups, two of Trump's three home states. More interesting are the potential Rust Belt states (MI, OH and PA) but even more so is the NE with my favourite NJ there, along with DE, CT and NH. NM and IA look in play too.
Wow. a ten-point lead would get him the nomination, 15 points would get 90% of the delegates.
That lot sums through to 90%.
Assuming Trump + Cruz + Kasich = 99%, that indicates 60% for Trump. A dominating landslide victory winning every single California delegate heading into Cleveland.
I wonder if Trump can pull an upset in one of the states "nailed on" for Cruz.
I think Trump could well win Washington - Nebraska may well be very close now.
Montana and South Dakota the only Cruz certs still.
Isidewith has always had those more competitive than the Mormon dominated surrounding states would imply. Cruz might hold on in Nebraska but I think Trump will take Montana and South Dakota.
Wow. a ten-point lead would get him the nomination, 15 points would get 90% of the delegates.
Despite this latest poll, showing Trump having a huge lead in the largest state of all by far, those nice folk at Wm. Hill continue to offer Will Donald Trump clinch Republican presidential nomination before Cleveland convention? at seemingly very generous odds of 1.57 or 4/7 in old money. I remember from long ago my near namesake on PB, PtP, pointing out that Hills' Political expert "Sidney" was rather prone to sleeping in of a morning, resulting in bargain prices being available - this one can't last much longer surely, but DYOR.
Many thanks to you White Rabbit for highlighting this value ..... I've just topped up.
If he faced up to the problem in the party he would have to accept that it starts with him. Not just because he is the leader but because he shares and has given legitimacy and support to those holding such vile views.
He's in denial about himself. But from his perspective he thinks he's right and that everyone else is wrong. Why, then, would he change anything?
When electing a fossil from the 70s as leader, it should come as no surprise that 70s attitudes to casual racism/anti-Semitism should follow. – Corbyn is neither qualified nor motivated enough to stamp this out, I doubt he even accepts its presence within the party.
Maybe like Gene Hunt in Life On Mars, Corbyn is trapped in a 70's world where his TV only shows Love Thy Neighbour and the Black and White Minstrel Show....on his way to Hell.
I do hope that Hodge does not challenge Corbyn, as she is Jewish. It would merely add fuel to the general perception that Jews and Zionist sympathisers are currently trying to knife the Labour leadership and lead to an increase in anti-Semitism. However deplorable their views, the witch hunt against Labour representatives expressing anti-Semitic opinions will back-fire on the Jewish community as a whole, particularly if this brings down the Labour leadership. The malevolent Guido Fawkes is doing the Jews no favours.
Brilliant
By your sick and perverted logic Jews should not complain about anti semitism because that will lead to more anti semitism.
Decent Labour supporters - is this really the sort of person you are happy to share your party with?
Wow. a ten-point lead would get him the nomination, 15 points would get 90% of the delegates.
That lot sums through to 90%.
Assuming Trump + Cruz + Kasich = 99%, that indicates 60% for Trump. A dominating landslide victory winning every single California delegate heading into Cleveland.
I wonder if Trump can pull an upset in one of the states "nailed on" for Cruz.
Is it my imagination or has Rubio offered his delegates to Trump?
He can release them now. Rubio's mind has turned into beating Hillary in November now, only a united GOP can achieve that - and much as he obviously dislikes Trump - HRC is the greater threat.
Well, they have to be careful with so many Mossad agents loose on PCs and Mobiles.
To be fair to Mark Senior my objection to his claim was not that Mossad has agents in London, they surely do as do many other intelligence agencies, and so do we in other countries. It was the "5,000" claim, that is almost certainly a wildly inaccurate claim, as is another often claimed figure of "hundreds of safe houses".
If Mossad really was running 5,000 agents in London, and maintaining hundreds of safe houses, and doing similar scale things in other cities with large Jewish populations, well they would be spending most of their time running a huge HR department and massive property portfolio. Mossad wouldn't have much time left for their actual job, which is mostly intelligence analysis, not the sort of stuff seen in the movies.
These sort of wild claims about Mossad's size and capabilities feed the conspiracy theorists and antisemites who seen the hand of Mossad in every political intrigue or terrorist incident. Mossad is not a particularly big intelligence service, the CIA is 20 times the size, even MI6 is about 3 times as big. Russia, China, France, Germany, India, Iran, and many other countries also have larger intelligence services. Yet despite that Mossad gets the blame for all sorts of crackpot stuff.
Good, Mann should have been investigated after his attacks on Paul Flynn. Craig Murray's comments on the whole Gould/Werritty affair are very interesting.
Sorry a mistake above, NJ and DE are Mid Atlantic states, not New England.
I do hope that Hodge does not challenge Corbyn, as she is Jewish. It would merely add fuel to the general perception that Jews and Zionist sympathisers are currently trying to knife the Labour leadership and lead to an increase in anti-Semitism. However deplorable their views, the witch hunt against Labour representatives expressing anti-Semitic opinions will back-fire on the Jewish community as a whole, particularly if this brings down the Labour leadership. The malevolent Guido Fawkes is doing the Jews no favours.
Brilliant
By your sick and perverted logic Jews should not complain about anti semitism because that will lead to more anti semitism.
Decent Labour supporters - is this really the sort of person you are happy to share your party with?
I read Daodao comments on this mornings thread and just felt more and more depressed. His comments are just plain unacceptable and like others on here I just feel I want to have 'time off' from this forum. There is a good and lively debate on the referendum with strong views on both sides but this pales into insignificance with the tribulations within the labour party and some quite extraordinary views and expressions of intolerance. I think a day spent with my grandchildren and their innocence will be richly rewarding
Wow. a ten-point lead would get him the nomination, 15 points would get 90% of the delegates.
Despite this latest poll, showing Trump having a huge lead in the largest state of all by far, those nice folk at Wm. Hill continue to offer Will Donald Trump clinch Republican presidential nomination before Cleveland convention? at seemingly very generous odds of 1.57 or 4/7 in old money. I remember from long ago my near namesake on PB, PtP, pointing out that Hills' Political expert "Sidney" was rather prone to sleeping in of a morning, resulting in bargain prices being available - this one can't last much longer surely, but DYOR.
Many thanks to you White Rabbit for highlighting this value ..... I've just topped up.
I did attempt to quiz customer support on what it means to "clinch" the nomination. However after twenty minutes of messing around, it became clear they knew no more than us.
Wow. a ten-point lead would get him the nomination, 15 points would get 90% of the delegates.
Despite this latest poll, showing Trump having a huge lead in the largest state of all by far, those nice folk at Wm. Hill continue to offer Will Donald Trump clinch Republican presidential nomination before Cleveland convention? at seemingly very generous odds of 1.57 or 4/7 in old money. I remember from long ago my near namesake on PB, PtP, pointing out that Hills' Political expert "Sidney" was rather prone to sleeping in of a morning, resulting in bargain prices being available - this one can't last much longer surely, but DYOR.
Many thanks to you White Rabbit for highlighting this value ..... I've just topped up.
I did attempt to quiz customer support on what it means to "clinch" the nomination. However after twenty minutes of messing around, it became clear they knew no more than us.
Nothing to see here, move along...Dave has opted us out of everything...no-one is talking about a European superstate or army or common foreign policy or common justice system honest...
Wow. a ten-point lead would get him the nomination, 15 points would get 90% of the delegates.
Despite this latest poll, showing Trump having a huge lead in the largest state of all by far, those nice folk at Wm. Hill continue to offer Will Donald Trump clinch Republican presidential nomination before Cleveland convention? at seemingly very generous odds of 1.57 or 4/7 in old money. I remember from long ago my near namesake on PB, PtP, pointing out that Hills' Political expert "Sidney" was rather prone to sleeping in of a morning, resulting in bargain prices being available - this one can't last much longer surely, but DYOR.
Many thanks to you White Rabbit for highlighting this value ..... I've just topped up.
I did attempt to quiz customer support on what it means to "clinch" the nomination. However after twenty minutes of messing around, it became clear they knew no more than us.
Indeed, "clinch" is a rather vague, not to say potentially unfortunate term ..... let's hope it's not Hillspeak for gabbing one by the spheroids or suchlike. More seriously though, I imagine that if Trump has not secured sufficient delegates prior to the GOP convention, then procedures need to have been put in place for resolving the nomination - in the absence of which then Trump is presumably the winner!
Good, Mann should have been investigated after his attacks on Paul Flyn.
So Britain shouldn't have an ambassador to Israel who is a Jew?
Paul Flynn, who represents the Newport West constituency, suggested this week that Britain’s first Jewish envoy to Israel had divided loyalties and that the position should be filled by “someone with roots in the UK”.
Mr. Runnymede, quite. I suspect Remain will handily win, the EU army will come into being, and some of those who voted to stay will rather regret it.
Won't be a big bang with the army, though. Salami-slicing all the way. National armies will remain, they'll simply be gradually diminished, their duties taken over by the larger EU army.
Wow. a ten-point lead would get him the nomination, 15 points would get 90% of the delegates.
Despite this latest poll, showing Trump having a huge lead in the largest state of all by far, those nice folk at Wm. Hill continue to offer Will Donald Trump clinch Republican presidential nomination before Cleveland convention? at seemingly very generous odds of 1.57 or 4/7 in old money. I remember from long ago my near namesake on PB, PtP, pointing out that Hills' Political expert "Sidney" was rather prone to sleeping in of a morning, resulting in bargain prices being available - this one can't last much longer surely, but DYOR.
Many thanks to you White Rabbit for highlighting this value ..... I've just topped up.
I did attempt to quiz customer support on what it means to "clinch" the nomination. However after twenty minutes of messing around, it became clear they knew no more than us.
Indeed, "clinch" is a rather vague, not to say potentially unfortunate term ..... let's hope it's not Hillspeak for gabbing one by the spheroids or suchlike. More seriously though, I imagine that if Trump has not secured sufficient delegates prior to the GOP convention, then procedures need to have been put in place for resolving the nomination - in the absence of which then Trump is presumably the winner!
I can't see that market, however the US double -
03 May 2016 - 2016 US Presidential Election - Who will be the official Democrat and Republican Candiates in the Presidential Election
But I'll bet they've *not* paid out a lot more on Chelsea, Man C, Man U and so on.
Leicester winning the league is a very bad result on the market for nearly all bookmakers. If it were just the pre-season bets, then the old wisdom about outsiders being good for bookies would hold true. But people were backing them all season at fancy prices.
But I'll bet they've *not* paid out a lot more on Chelsea, Man C, Man U and so on.
Leicester winning the league is a very bad result on the market for nearly all bookmakers. If it were just the pre-season bets, then the old wisdom about outsiders being good for bookies would hold true. But people were backing them all season at fancy prices.
Looking back, 5000-1 pre season may well have been correct.
But 10-1 or whatever it was at christmas certainly wasn't !
I haven't felt so uncomfortable about British politics since 1984 when Thatcher was running riot and some very unpleasant people were riding on her coat tails. The Bennite/Foot Labour Party was equally unattractive and similarly infiltrated by people with an agenda that was both alien and unpleasant.
One of the sayings I find most often comes true is that 'the dawn follows the darkest night'. In this case though it's in reverse. For the first time for years we had a reasonably benign Tory Party and a Labour Party in transition. Completely unelectable but at least they were being forced to rebuild......
And then in a couple of weeks the Tories self immolated and Labour at their weakest have had the scaffolding pulled from under them by some dark forces as yet unknown..........
Dear God Roger, listen to yourself.
It is self inflicted, it is not a fecking Tory or Mossad plot.
I've never suggested or thought it was a Tory or Mossad plot! It that sense it isn't a plot at all. It's a nasty blogger who has the support of many people who share his aims. It happened to a lesser extent with UKIP when every day another councillor was outed. It never really gained legs because no one expected better from UKIPers. The problem with these witch hunts is how indiscriminate they are. They attract all sorts of self seekers and it's impossible to guess where it'll end.
Wow. a ten-point lead would get him the nomination, 15 points would get 90% of the delegates.
Despite this latest poll, showing Trump having a huge lead in the largest state of all by far, those nice folk at Wm. Hill continue to offer Will Donald Trump clinch Republican presidential nomination before Cleveland convention? at seemingly very generous odds of 1.57 or 4/7 in old money. I remember from long ago my near namesake on PB, PtP, pointing out that Hills' Political expert "Sidney" was rather prone to sleeping in of a morning, resulting in bargain prices being available - this one can't last much longer surely, but DYOR.
Many thanks to you White Rabbit for highlighting this value ..... I've just topped up.
I did attempt to quiz customer support on what it means to "clinch" the nomination. However after twenty minutes of messing around, it became clear they knew no more than us.
Indeed, "clinch" is a rather vague, not to say potentially unfortunate term ..... let's hope it's not Hillspeak for gabbing one by the spheroids or suchlike. More seriously though, I imagine that if Trump has not secured sufficient delegates prior to the GOP convention, then procedures need to have been put in place for resolving the nomination - in the absence of which then Trump is presumably the winner!
I can't see that market, however the US double -
03 May 2016 - 2016 US Presidential Election - Who will be the official Democrat and Republican Candiates in the Presidential Election
Clinton / Trump @ 2/7
is money for old rope.
It's here but Sidney has trimmed the price slightly to 1.5 ( or 0.5/1) :
You would need a heart of stone not to chuckle at the complete alignment of BNP and Labour views when 'New' Labour were No-Platforming Griffin and his cronies back in 2009.
I've never suggested or thought it was a Tory or Mossad plot! It that sense it isn't a plot at all. It's a nasty blogger who has the support of many people who share his aims. It happened to a lesser extent with UKIP when every day another councillor was outed. It never really gained legs because no one expected better from UKIPers. The problem with these witch hunts is how indiscriminate they are. They attract all sorts of self seekers and it's impossible to guess where it'll end.
There is one big difference. UKIP usually boot-out racists immediately. Labour suspends their racists and then tries to justify what they have said.
But I'll bet they've *not* paid out a lot more on Chelsea, Man C, Man U and so on.
Leicester winning the league is a very bad result on the market for nearly all bookmakers. If it were just the pre-season bets, then the old wisdom about outsiders being good for bookies would hold true. But people were backing them all season at fancy prices.
True. Someone - modesty prevents me naming him - did tip them at 20/1 at Xmas, which was ludicrously long. That said, surely they'll have taken more than £4.6m on the rest?
Mr. Runnymede, quite. I suspect Remain will handily win, the EU army will come into being, and some of those who voted to stay will rather regret it.
Won't be a big bang with the army, though. Salami-slicing all the way. National armies will remain, they'll simply be gradually diminished, their duties taken over by the larger EU army.
You can't avoid a 'big bang'. A EU army needs an EU C-in-C and an EU Commissioner. *Those* are the Big bang moments. Anything else is just reverseable cooperation.
Comments
https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/727411110165504000
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/05/03/jeremy-corbyn-is-a-man-in-disgraceful-denial-of-labours-problems/
Basically, between 25% and 40% believe the Jewish have too much power, cause wars, talk about the holocaust too much etc.
Among the wider population those numbers are lower at between 5% and 20%.
The Jewish global conspiracy seems to be a much more prevalent viewpoint among UK Muslims than the general population, of which around 10% (far left/far right?) seem to be of that mind. It is close to 40% among muslims.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Mulims-full-suite-data-plus-topline.pdf
But Labour as presently incarnated need to be smashed so it can be rebuilt.
http://order-order.com/#_@/KIgKY5mbOf4Ymw
https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/727413986229145600
He's in denial about himself. But from his perspective he thinks he's right and that everyone else is wrong. Why, then, would he change anything?
Suppose this was an opinion poll what would it suggest as the actual numbers of councillors?
Trump 54, Cruz 20, Kasich 16 Trump +34
Wow. a ten-point lead would get him the nomination, 15 points would get 90% of the delegates.
By the by, the most intolerant person I have ever worked with was a fundamental Christian.
It is self inflicted, it is not a fecking Tory or Mossad plot.
"The trouble started with a 12-year-old in La Porte, Indiana. At a rally there, a boy shouted “You suck!” and “Shut up!” during Cruz’s stump speech, thwarting the senator’s attempts to turn the pubescent heckler into a talking point." - the Guardian
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tr9xVmCL0bA
But the more Labour people associate themselves with terrorists and those who think that suicide bombing is justified (Al Qaradawi, Cage etc) then the greater the risk that people will make that connection in their own minds, regardless of which picture is used.
Even Corbyn himself - post-7/7 - can be seen on video saying, in effect, that the 7/7 bombing was our fault. I don't want people who nominated this man for leadership to be anywhere near the controls of power in London.
If Labour don't want to be thought of as the party which is a bit too cosy with terrorists they should try not cosying up to them. Just a thought.
Assuming Trump + Cruz + Kasich = 99%, that indicates 60% for Trump. A dominating landslide victory winning every single California delegate heading into Cleveland.
I wonder if Trump can pull an upset in one of the states "nailed on" for Cruz.
I think Trump could well win Washington - Nebraska may well be very close now.
Montana and South Dakota the only Cruz certs still.
After all, who wants to shout their allegiance to the EU?
Story alert: despite refusing to say so yesterday, Corbyn says Labour won't lose seats on Thursday. Big shout.
That said, we won't be seeing odds of x thousand to one to win the Premiership ever again.
Well, maybe Burnley....
If @RodCrosby is reading this, what does he make of http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/01/what-do-head-to-head-general-election-polls-tell-us-about-november/#more-15484 which estimates Trump's chances of catching Hillary by November as 9% ?
@STJamesl: Labour slogan: elections are about taking sides https://t.co/LLKn3FqcUp
Of course our eyes now turn to the general. Isidewith has been remarkably accurate for showing geographical areas of strength for Cruz vs Trump.
http://www.isidewith.com/map/JrQv/2016-presidential-election-donald-trump-vs-ted-cruz#z5
The economic and Norpoth models predict about a 5 point win by Trump so let us see which states Trump is likely to flip. A ten point swing will flip a lot.
http://www.isidewith.com/map/JNty/2016-presidential-election-donald-trump-vs-hillary-clinton#z4
Reaffirms FL and NV will be easy pickups, two of Trump's three home states. More interesting are the potential Rust Belt states (MI, OH and PA) but even more so is the NE with my favourite NJ there, along with DE, CT and NH. NM and IA look in play too.
https://www.change.org/p/jeremy-corbyn-mp-disciplinary-procedure-for-john-mann-mp
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Haunting-Lake-Manor-Hotel-ebook/dp/B01DQEDAEE
I remember from long ago my near namesake on PB, PtP, pointing out that Hills' Political expert "Sidney" was rather prone to sleeping in of a morning, resulting in bargain prices being available - this one can't last much longer surely, but DYOR.
Many thanks to you White Rabbit for highlighting this value ..... I've just topped up.
By your sick and perverted logic Jews should not complain about anti semitism because that will lead to more anti semitism.
Decent Labour supporters - is this really the sort of person you are happy to share your party with?
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/727416594046001152
If Mossad really was running 5,000 agents in London, and maintaining hundreds of safe houses, and doing similar scale things in other cities with large Jewish populations, well they would be spending most of their time running a huge HR department and massive property portfolio. Mossad wouldn't have much time left for their actual job, which is mostly intelligence analysis, not the sort of stuff seen in the movies.
These sort of wild claims about Mossad's size and capabilities feed the conspiracy theorists and antisemites who seen the hand of Mossad in every political intrigue or terrorist incident.
Mossad is not a particularly big intelligence service, the CIA is 20 times the size, even MI6 is about 3 times as big. Russia, China, France, Germany, India, Iran, and many other countries also have larger intelligence services. Yet despite that Mossad gets the blame for all sorts of crackpot stuff.
Sorry a mistake above, NJ and DE are Mid Atlantic states, not New England.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/727382432157171712
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/owen-jones-the-1-per-cent-have-an-interest-in-demonising-ken-livingstone-7640660.html
Someone is especially happy http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-3492464/Leicester-City-fan-James-Weller-rejects-cash-offer-25-000-5000-1-title-bet.html
More seriously though, I imagine that if Trump has not secured sufficient delegates prior to the GOP convention, then procedures need to have been put in place for resolving the nomination - in the absence of which then Trump is presumably the winner!
Paul Flynn, who represents the Newport West constituency, suggested this week that Britain’s first Jewish envoy to Israel had divided loyalties and that the position should be filled by “someone with roots in the UK”.
http://antisemitism.org.uk/press/press-releases/year-2011/flynncomments/
Won't be a big bang with the army, though. Salami-slicing all the way. National armies will remain, they'll simply be gradually diminished, their duties taken over by the larger EU army.
03 May 2016 - 2016 US Presidential Election - Who will be the official Democrat and Republican Candiates in the Presidential Election
Clinton / Trump @ 2/7
is money for old rope.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVRPHgwGrvM
But 10-1 or whatever it was at christmas certainly wasn't !
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/727428855640805376
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/t/543/US+Politics.html
The power of PB.com!
Now we know what 'Real' Labour is all about.
@Maomentum_: Really like the new Labour election slogan:
"It's Us or Them!"