Lord King 'economic threat of Brexit is being exaggerated'
'I'm old enough to remember the referendum in Britain in 1975 on exactly the same issue. The one thing that both sides of the argument then were wrong about was that it would make a dramatic difference. It didn't.'
Clinton is now above 500 supers too. Still "technically" behind the winning line till the last day (At which point if all goes to plan it is a 1-10000 shoo in)
Mr. 1983, could you give us a quick summary of the Kurile Islands situation?
In my opinion it's a simple case of victor's justice. Japan claims the southernmost two islands, in accordance with an 1855 treaty (I had to look this up), Russia had the rest, but Russia grabbed them in the war and have simply deported all the Japanese back to mainland Japan. The Russians have no legal claim that I can see. They have offered to give back the closest two Islands to Japan, which is about 7% of what the Japanese claim. Land-grabbing in this fashion when you're the biggest country in the world seems pointless.
Fishing or oil rights? Usually why people want pointless little islands. See Rockall.
Yes, but Russia is one of the most natural resource rich countries on earth. If anything I feel their interests would be better served by trying to build bridges with Japan over it. Won't happen now of course. There is what I imagine to be a settled population, Russia are best mates with China and Japan are very much under US control.
Incidentally, on natural resources, one of the positives of being sanctioned is that the Russian economy is being forced to diversify, and therefore looks likely to return to growth fairly soon.
Looks more likely to collapse to me. The OPEC meeting was a yawn for the west but very bad news for the biggest oil producer in the world. If oil stays near its current prices and Russian output starts to drop off the position will be unsustainable.
There's undoubtedly propaganda on both sides. There was a 3.7 GDP contraction in 2015, and they are predicting a 0.3 contraction in 2016. If true, it would appear to indicate a return to growth in 2017. Of course sanctions wound, but markets adjust, people adjust, and if something is artificially undervalued, it will find its real value one way or another. This is as true and pertinent to the Brexit argument as it is to anything else.
Is Mr Meeks right that personal attacks is the wrong way for LEAVE to go even though Vote Leave does not have this as a core tactic?
Making this a core aim and tactic, would make sense if the REMAIN Campaign is relying on the trust and image of Cameron to win. Which since they are, so far, it invites the attacks.
Lord King 'economic threat of Brexit is being exaggerated'
'I'm old enough to remember the referendum in Britain in 1975 on exactly the same issue. The one thing that both sides of the argument then were wrong about was that it would make a dramatic difference. It didn't.'
A genuinely sensible contribution from the former Governer of the BoE, who isn't in George Osborne's pocket.
Funny the Remainers are quiet about it.
No point listening to Lord King. He was wrong when he was part of the 364 economists who slagged off Thatcher and Howe, and he's wrong now.
Lord King helped keep us out the Euro. At best it tells you economists can't forecast shit.
And Tebbit/Thatcher/Lawson/Owen were all europhiles back then.
How is the weather in Moscow this evening?
I thought according to Leave, making a crap economist forecast, or supporting a bad economic policy disqualified you from commenting upon the impacts of Brexit.
As for the weather in Moscow, you'd have to ask that noted supporter of Brexit, Vladimir Putin.
Me, I'm off for the evening, to psych myself up to watch the Merseyside derby on the telly
Lord King 'economic threat of Brexit is being exaggerated'
'I'm old enough to remember the referendum in Britain in 1975 on exactly the same issue. The one thing that both sides of the argument then were wrong about was that it would make a dramatic difference. It didn't.'
A genuinely sensible contribution from the former Governer of the BoE, who isn't in George Osborne's pocket.
Funny the Remainers are quiet about it.
No point listening to Lord King. He was wrong when he was part of the 364 economists who slagged off Thatcher and Howe, and he's wrong now.
Lord King helped keep us out the Euro. At best it tells you economists can't forecast shit.
And Tebbit/Thatcher/Lawson/Owen were all europhiles back then.
How is the weather in Moscow this evening?
Well the 364 economists story is certainly a nice example of how establishment opinion can get things utterly, and almost unanimously, wrong. As it also did on the issue of the ERM, and returning to the Gold Standard after WWI.
Another, more controversial, example is the obsession with a fixed (and overvalued) sterling exchange rate from the 1940s-early 1970s. Suggesting a floating rate was considered tantamount to heresy at the time yet it would definitely have been the right choice.
To be fair to quite a few of the 364 signatories though, they would now accept they made a mistake - and it was an honest mistake.
That can't be said of the propagandists who forecast doom if we left the ERM, doom if we didn't join the euro and are now forecasting doom in the event of LEAVE.
Don't panic Richard, we all let our guards down and allow the truth to slip out de temps en temps. You have acknowledged that all the stuff and nonsense you have been banging on about is your "personal view". I, personally, welcome that admission.
Sorry Topping but these strange misquotes really don't fool anyone. All they show is that your actual grasp of the subject matter is so flaky and shallow that you have to rely upon deflection rather than dealing with the issues. Of course the problem is that you write opinion as fact whereas I make a point of distinguishing between the two.
So please do continue with your asides. At least they save us from your fantasy ideas about how the EEA or EFTA work which bear no resemblance to reality at all.
stop digging, Richard.
Just highlighting your modus operandi and the facile nature of your arguments. Now since Vote Leave appears to have opted against the EEA route it is probably moot but if you want we can reopen your strange views on how EFTA works and I can show everyone how ignorant you are yet again.
I'm sure everyone is grateful for your incisive and conclusive views.
Which are, after all, only your "personal view".
Sometimes I give a personal view. At other times I provide facts. The point being that I differentiate between the two. You simply spout ill informed rubbish and pretend it is factual. All it reveals is your own ignorance.
Don't panic Richard, we all let our guards down and allow the truth to slip out de temps en temps. You have acknowledged that all the stuff and nonsense you have been banging on about is your "personal view". I, personally, welcome that admission.
Sorry Topping but these strange misquotes really don't fool anyone. All they show is that your actual grasp of the subject matter is so flaky and shallow that you have to rely upon deflection rather than dealing with the issues. Of course the problem is that you write opinion as fact whereas I make a point of distinguishing between the two.
So please do continue with your asides. At least they save us from your fantasy ideas about how the EEA or EFTA work which bear no resemblance to reality at all.
stop digging, Richard.
Just highlighting your modus operandi and the facile nature of your arguments. Now since Vote Leave appears to have opted against the EEA route it is probably moot but if you want we can reopen your strange views on how EFTA works and I can show everyone how ignorant you are yet again.
I'm sure everyone is grateful for your incisive and conclusive views.
Which are, after all, only your "personal view".
Sometimes I give a personal view. At other times I provide facts. The point being that I differentiate between the two. You simply spout ill informed rubbish and pretend it is factual. All it reveals is your own ignorance.
Let it go, Richard, you know you do come over as a bit of a dick at times (for example, now).
Lord King 'economic threat of Brexit is being exaggerated'
'I'm old enough to remember the referendum in Britain in 1975 on exactly the same issue. The one thing that both sides of the argument then were wrong about was that it would make a dramatic difference. It didn't.'
Mr. 1983, could you give us a quick summary of the Kurile Islands situation?
In my opinion it's a simple case of victor's justice. Japan claims the southernmost two islands, in accordance with an 1855 treaty (I had to look this up), Russia had the rest, but Russia grabbed them in the war and have simply deported all the Japanese back to mainland Japan. The Russians have no legal claim that I can see. They have offered to give back the closest two Islands to Japan, which is about 7% of what the Japanese claim. Land-grabbing in this fashion when you're the biggest country in the world seems pointless.
Fishing or oil rights? Usually why people want pointless little islands. See Rockall.
Yes, but Russia is one of the most natural resource rich countries on earth. If anything I feel their interests would be better served by trying to build bridges with Japan over it. Won't happen now of course. There is what I imagine to be a settled population, Russia are best mates with China and Japan are very much under US control.
Incidentally, on natural resources, one of the positives of being sanctioned is that the Russian economy is being forced to diversify, and therefore looks likely to return to growth fairly soon.
Looks more likely to collapse to me. The OPEC meeting was a yawn for the west but very bad news for the biggest oil producer in the world. If oil stays near its current prices and Russian output starts to drop off the position will be unsustainable.
There's undoubtedly propaganda on both sides. There was a 3.7 GDP contraction in 2015, and they are predicting a 0.3 contraction in 2016. If true, it would appear to indicate a return to growth in 2017. Of course sanctions wound, but markets adjust, people adjust, and if something is artificially undervalued, it will find its real value one way or another. This is as true and pertinent to the Brexit argument as it is to anything else.
Of course if oil starts to rise again things can change around quickly but I should warn you that AEP has forecast exactly that.
You're not warning me; I care no more for Russia than I do for any foreign country, which is to say I respect them if they respect us. I'm Palmerstonian.
Lord King 'economic threat of Brexit is being exaggerated'
'I'm old enough to remember the referendum in Britain in 1975 on exactly the same issue. The one thing that both sides of the argument then were wrong about was that it would make a dramatic difference. It didn't.'
A genuinely sensible contribution from the former Governer of the BoE, who isn't in George Osborne's pocket.
Funny the Remainers are quiet about it.
No point listening to Lord King. He was wrong when he was part of the 364 economists who slagged off Thatcher and Howe, and he's wrong now.
Lord King helped keep us out the Euro. At best it tells you economists can't forecast shit.
And Tebbit/Thatcher/Lawson/Owen were all europhiles back then.
How is the weather in Moscow this evening?
I thought according to Leave, making a crap economist forecast, or supporting a bad economic policy disqualified you from commenting upon the impacts of Brexit.
As for the weather in Moscow, you'd have to ask that noted supporter of Brexit, Vladimir Putin.
Me, I'm off for the evening, to psych myself up to watch the Merseyside derby on the telly
Argh. Too predictable.
I was hoping for better from you than that.
At the very least it should tell you to take your own firm's forecast with a big pinch of salt, and all the others too.
Victoria Wood - sudden death and sad for friends and family. Just never found her very funny. Is she more an acquired taste for females? I asked er in doors and she agreed with me....
Lord King 'economic threat of Brexit is being exaggerated'
'I'm old enough to remember the referendum in Britain in 1975 on exactly the same issue. The one thing that both sides of the argument then were wrong about was that it would make a dramatic difference. It didn't.'
A genuinely sensible contribution from the former Governer of the BoE, who isn't in George Osborne's pocket.
Funny the Remainers are quiet about it.
No point listening to Lord King. He was wrong when he was part of the 364 economists who slagged off Thatcher and Howe, and he's wrong now.
Lord King helped keep us out the Euro. At best it tells you economists can't forecast shit.
And Tebbit/Thatcher/Lawson/Owen were all europhiles back then.
How is the weather in Moscow this evening?
Well the 364 economists story is certainly a nice example of how establishment opinion can get things utterly, and almost unanimously, wrong. As it also did on the issue of the ERM, and returning to the Gold Standard after WWI.
Another, more controversial, example is the obsession with a fixed (and overvalued) sterling exchange rate from the 1940s-early 1970s. Suggesting a floating rate was considered tantamount to heresy at the time yet it would definitely have been the right choice.
To be fair to quite a few of the 364 signatories though, they would now accept they made a mistake - and it was an honest mistake.
That can't be said of the propagandists who forecast doom if we left the ERM, doom if we didn't join the euro and are now forecasting doom in the event of LEAVE.
Yes, from the likes of the FT/Lord Kinnock/CBI/TUC/Paddy Ashdown/Ken Clarke..
Surely the answer to naming the research vessel Boaty McBoatface is for Prince Charles to change his name by deed poll. King Boaty would show he truly has a popular touch....
He also appears to favour patriotic communism over the Trotskyite sort.
'He also welcomed the recent support for Brexit at an STUC fringe event in Dundee led by RMT general secretary Mick Cash and Communist Party candidate Raymond Mennie..
He described Mick Cash's Scottish Left Leave Campaign as "patriotic". "They believe that their parents and grandparents fought, and in some cases sacrificed everything they had, for us to be a free, independent democratic nation," he said.
Mr Mennie told STUC delegates the European Union is the fulfilment of the ideas of the Nazis.
Mr Farage said: "Some people tell me that the Nazis planned this all along. Other people tell me it is pure Trotskyite communism."'
Basically, the great and the good want us to vote Remain.
We can either tug our forelocks and do as they say, or stick two fingers up and vote Leave.
A victory for Leave will be a victory for the common man & woman.
A Labour for Leave poster with Cameron and Osborne in their most off-putting, smirking, giggling Parliamentary pose with "Do you REALLY want to support this pair and vote Remain?" could have considerable impact....
Well a good start for the Welsh Elections - postal ballot papers in three counties Ceredigion , Carmarthen and Pembrokeshire have to be re printed and sent out AGAIN after an error was spotted - love the way they blame the printers but am sure they are working with what they were given
ICM phone poll IMHO overstates the REMAIN lead and it may even have be level pegging - just like its online poll. ICM to be fair state that "Given that Labour voters split in the general ratio of 2:1 in favour of Remain, the view here is that the phone poll slightly overstate its share."
Looking at the weighting which produces 23% more 18-34 voters than the 65+. Chestnut in an earlier post referred me to Ipsos mori finding from the GE that it was just 17% higher. The effect of this would bring down the gap for phone survey by a few % and with MOE we are looking at level pegging.
The other factor is that ICM are taking the rating on certainty to vote from the respondent, not from likely behaviour. Also is a weightings by GE a good tool or should they be using weightings by local elections when the 65+ turnout in even greater % compared to the younger voters (commitment and postal vote effects)? This needs further thought.
It's on the list and I'm delighted that my doubts were misplaced about Helen Mirren (now in her seventies) being convincing as some top military bod...
I'm sure if you put it through 'Chestnut' you'll find the silver lining
There's an awful lot of "I don't trust the polls" and anecdote trumping objectivity about.
True but its real money as well. Do the betting markets, where cold hard cash is being wagered in big size, correspond to the headline figures for the polls? I think the answer is pretty much no.
Oh, and thank you to Alistair Meeks for an interesting analysis. I don't agree with all of it but you get what you pay for.
I guess where I differ is the view that this is a considered approach. I don't think it is, I think it's one born out of emotionalism rather Than rationalism. Nothing wrong with with but I suspect that AMs empathy with the emotional approach is limited. That mismatch is brought to life here by be poster dithering over whether to attend a work/stay event and concern about tongue biting.
Basically, the great and the good want us to vote Remain.
We can either tug our forelocks and do as they say, or stick two fingers up and vote Leave.
A victory for Leave will be a victory for the common man & woman.
A Labour for Leave poster with Cameron and Osborne in their most off-putting, smirking, giggling Parliamentary pose with "Do you REALLY want to support this pair and vote Remain?" could have considerable impact....
I think the route for a Leave victory lies through the Labour vote - I'm not sure there are too many more swingable Tories now. Those that are might plump 60:40 to Remain.
I'd be interested in Sandy's views on this. Danny/BJO are interesting too.
It's on the list and I'm delighted that my doubts were misplaced about Helen Mirren (now in her seventies) being convincing as some top military bod...
I haven't seen but someone I know laughed their way through it....
I'm sure if you put it through 'Chestnut' you'll find the silver lining
There's an awful lot of "I don't trust the polls" and anecdote trumping objectivity about.
True but its real money as well. Do the betting markets, where cold hard cash is being wagered in big size, correspond to the headline figures for the polls? I think the answer is pretty much no.
That's fair comment but one wonders how much emotionalism plays a role there. There's a DPhil into that!
Basically, the great and the good want us to vote Remain.
We can either tug our forelocks and do as they say, or stick two fingers up and vote Leave.
A victory for Leave will be a victory for the common man & woman.
A Labour for Leave poster with Cameron and Osborne in their most off-putting, smirking, giggling Parliamentary pose with "Do you REALLY want to support this pair and vote Remain?" could have considerable impact....
I think the route for a Leave victory lies through the Labour vote - I'm not sure there are too many more swingable Tories now. Those that are might plump 60:40 to Remain.
I'd be interested in Sandy's views on this. Danny/BJO are interesting too.
For what it's worth I think you've got a reasonably coherent message now you just have the wrong people delivering it. The best advocate I've yet heard for Leave was David Owen.
Oh, and thank you to Alistair Meeks for an interesting analysis. I don't agree with all of it but you get what you pay for.
I guess where I differ is the view that this is a considered approach. I don't think it is, I think it's one born out of emotionalism rather Than rationalism. Nothing wrong with with but I suspect that AMs empathy with the emotional approach is limited. That mismatch is brought to life here by be poster dithering over whether to attend a work/stay event and concern about tongue biting.
Well a good start for the Welsh Elections - postal ballot papers in three counties Ceredigion , Carmarthen and Pembrokeshire have to be re printed and sent out AGAIN after an error was spotted - love the way they blame the printers but am sure they are working with what they were given
I'm sure if you put it through 'Chestnut' you'll find the silver lining
Particularly as he's now trying to make something of a self selecting voodoo poll with less than 400 responses in a newspaper - zero objectivity on polling matters I'm afraid
Basically, the great and the good want us to vote Remain.
We can either tug our forelocks and do as they say, or stick two fingers up and vote Leave.
A victory for Leave will be a victory for the common man & woman.
A Labour for Leave poster with Cameron and Osborne in their most off-putting, smirking, giggling Parliamentary pose with "Do you REALLY want to support this pair and vote Remain?" could have considerable impact....
I think the route for a Leave victory lies through the Labour vote - I'm not sure there are too many more swingable Tories now. Those that are might plump 60:40 to Remain.
I'd be interested in Sandy's views on this. Danny/BJO are interesting too.
For what it's worth I think you've got a reasonably coherent message now you just have the wrong people delivering it. The best advocate I've yet heard for Leave was David Owen.
Thanks Roger, I appreciate that.
I think Vote Leave need to expand it from just being a Gove/Boris show, absolutely.
I assume the whole board bought into the strategy so I hope to see a few leading Labour figures like Hooey/Stuart/Field and Owen now going off to sell it.
ITV News on PMQs not dominated by Corbyn's triumph but instead the racist accusations from Labour at PMQs at Cameron.
So is this where the Labour REMAIN campaign supporters attack the REMAIN campaign front man Mr Meeks? Always the danger of REMAIN relying on Cameron to front things....
Oh, and thank you to Alistair Meeks for an interesting analysis. I don't agree with all of it but you get what you pay for.
I guess where I differ is the view that this is a considered approach. I don't think it is, I think it's one born out of emotionalism rather Than rationalism. Nothing wrong with with but I suspect that AMs empathy with the emotional approach is limited. That mismatch is brought to life here by be poster dithering over whether to attend a work/stay event and concern about tongue biting.
Are you talking about me?
I wrote a long reply which iOS ate and which I cba to retype but in summary:
A. In most circumstances I suspect you would say that you are a rational individual but specific emotion could trump this;
B. Lawyers, outside the tediously crusading type*, should be avowedly rational. One leaves the emotion to clients; and
C. Your line is generally seen as the starter to a Glasgow kiss...
* and there has never been a crusading pensions lawyer.
ITV News on PMQs not dominated by Corbyn's triumph but instead the racist accusations from Labour at PMQs at Cameron.
So is this where the Labour REMAIN campaign supporters attack the REMAIN campaign front man Mr Meeks? Always the danger of REMAIN relying on Cameron to front things....
It feels like it here, but I don't think that normal adversial politics has been wholly subordinated to a referendum debate.
ITV News on PMQs not dominated by Corbyn's triumph but instead the racist accusations from Labour at PMQs at Cameron.
So is this where the Labour REMAIN campaign supporters attack the REMAIN campaign front man Mr Meeks? Always the danger of REMAIN relying on Cameron to front things....
Cameron was wrong, nay misguided to ever get so deeply involved in Remain. Had he stood aside as a neutral observer, he'd be in a position to reunite the Tories after the vote, and continue to take on Labour without the risk outlined above.
Now, he has a divided party, and will be shunned as a social pariah by half it's supporters, whilst giving ammunition to the Opposition. Foolish man.
Oh, and thank you to Alistair Meeks for an interesting analysis. I don't agree with all of it but you get what you pay for.
I guess where I differ is the view that this is a considered approach. I don't think it is, I think it's one born out of emotionalism rather Than rationalism. Nothing wrong with with but I suspect that AMs empathy with the emotional approach is limited. That mismatch is brought to life here by be poster dithering over whether to attend a work/stay event and concern about tongue biting.
Are you talking about me?
I wrote a long reply which iOS ate and which I cba to retype but in summary:
A. In most circumstances I suspect you would say that you are a rational individual but specific emotion could trump this;
B. Lawyers, outside the tediously crusading type*, should be avowedly rational. One leaves the emotion to clients; and
C. Your line is generally seen as the starter to a Glasgow kiss...
* and there has never been a crusading pensions lawyer.
So I shouldn't go to the lunch because they might get emotional/violent and I might get emotional?
"Angry Labour MPs accused Mr Cameron of racism during Prime Minister's Questions in the House of Commons as he detailed Mr Khan's nine appearances alongside Sulaiman Ghani, who he said was a supporter of the Islamic State terror group."
ITV News on PMQs not dominated by Corbyn's triumph but instead the racist accusations from Labour at PMQs at Cameron.
So is this where the Labour REMAIN campaign supporters attack the REMAIN campaign front man Mr Meeks? Always the danger of REMAIN relying on Cameron to front things....
It feels like it here, but I don't think that normal adversial politics has been wholly subordinated to a referendum debate.
In 1975 were normal adversarial politics suspened for the referendum? Just another few notches in Cameron caused by a failure to understand calendars. Did he forget about the May elections?
ITV News on PMQs not dominated by Corbyn's triumph but instead the racist accusations from Labour at PMQs at Cameron.
So is this where the Labour REMAIN campaign supporters attack the REMAIN campaign front man Mr Meeks? Always the danger of REMAIN relying on Cameron to front things....
Cameron was wrong, nay misguided to ever get so deeply involved in Remain. Had he stood aside as a neutral observer, he'd be in a position to reunite the Tories after the vote, and continue to take on Labour without the risk outlined above. Now, he has a divided party, and will be shunned as a social pariah by half it's supporters, whilst giving ammunition to the Opposition. Foolish man.
Some old codger made that point in a comparison with Harold Wilson. Alas my memory forgets the details............
Basically, the great and the good want us to vote Remain.
We can either tug our forelocks and do as they say, or stick two fingers up and vote Leave.
A victory for Leave will be a victory for the common man & woman.
A Labour for Leave poster with Cameron and Osborne in their most off-putting, smirking, giggling Parliamentary pose with "Do you REALLY want to support this pair and vote Remain?" could have considerable impact....
The main figure in LEAVE is Nigel Farage REMAIN will never be as repulsive to the remaining Labour supporters
So Monday night in Betfairs Referendum winners Market a big chunk takes the price from 1.5 to 1.59 in one go. The following day over £150k was waiting to be matched on backing leave (between 2.72 and 2.8) of which most has disappeared. I think we can now rule out someone front running a poll. Two Polls today show a slight movement to Remain, if anything the Price should be at least 1.5/3. I've just back Remain heavily with a view to trade. anyone that was willing to back at 1.5 before the Monday should be willing to back now, more so.
Michael Crick leads C4 News with more detail on the Conservative election expenses questions. If there is anything deadly, it begs the question why Feldman the Chairman did not go quietly weeks ago.
Did not clear the decks ahead of the referendum and local elections! Illustrates the absence of Crosby who insisted on a clear out of problems well before the GE.
Oh, and thank you to Alistair Meeks for an interesting analysis. I don't agree with all of it but you get what you pay for.
I guess where I differ is the view that this is a considered approach. I don't think it is, I think it's one born out of emotionalism rather Than rationalism. Nothing wrong with with but I suspect that AMs empathy with the emotional approach is limited. That mismatch is brought to life here by be poster dithering over whether to attend a work/stay event and concern about tongue biting.
Are you talking about me?
I wrote a long reply which iOS ate and which I cba to retype but in summary:
A. In most circumstances I suspect you would say that you are a rational individual but specific emotion could trump this;
B. Lawyers, outside the tediously crusading type*, should be avowedly rational. One leaves the emotion to clients; and
C. Your line is generally seen as the starter to a Glasgow kiss...
* and there has never been a crusading pensions lawyer.
Some people might be insulted by your footnote. I shall take it as a challenge.
Simon Kelner says Cameron should reject the EU referendum if we vote the wrong way:
"I know they had to offer a referendum for narrow tactical reasons, and now they are faced with the real prospect of the people of Britain going against them. In my view, a vote to leave would make us pretty much a laughing stock in serious circles. In that case, I think David Cameron should follow Nerc’s example and steadfastly refuse to accept the will of the people."
Basically, the great and the good want us to vote Remain.
We can either tug our forelocks and do as they say, or stick two fingers up and vote Leave.
A victory for Leave will be a victory for the common man & woman.
A Labour for Leave poster with Cameron and Osborne in their most off-putting, smirking, giggling Parliamentary pose with "Do you REALLY want to support this pair and vote Remain?" could have considerable impact....
The main figure in LEAVE is Nigel Farage REMAIN will never be as repulsive to the remaining Labour supporters
Is this supported by the like/dislike polling on the party leaders?
So Monday night in Betfairs Referendum winners Market a big chunk takes the price from 1.5 to 1.59 in one go. The following day over £150k was waiting to be matched on backing leave (between 2.72 and 2.8) of which most has disappeared. I think we can now rule out someone front running a poll. Two Polls today show a slight movement to Remain, if anything the Price should be at least 1.5/3. I've just back Remain heavily with a view to trade. anyone that was willing to back at 1.5 before the Monday should be willing to back now, more so.
Call yourself gamblers?
You're assuming that other people on here aren't doing likewise. That isn't a safe assumption.
Simon Kelner says Cameron should reject the EU referendum if we vote the wrong way:
"I know they had to offer a referendum for narrow tactical reasons, and now they are faced with the real prospect of the people of Britain going against them. In my view, a vote to leave would make us pretty much a laughing stock in serious circles. In that case, I think David Cameron should follow Nerc’s example and steadfastly refuse to accept the will of the people."
Lord King 'economic threat of Brexit is being exaggerated'
'I'm old enough to remember the referendum in Britain in 1975 on exactly the same issue. The one thing that both sides of the argument then were wrong about was that it would make a dramatic difference. It didn't.'
Sort of inevitable - most 'celebrities' came to the fore with the advent of colour television in the late 60s/ early 70s - that is now 45 years ago, so if they were in their 30s i.e. established, they are now in the mid 70s/ eighties.
So you have to add this increasing 'death by old age' to the 'death by illness/ misadventure' random deaths.
Simon Kelner says Cameron should reject the EU referendum if we vote the wrong way:
"I know they had to offer a referendum for narrow tactical reasons, and now they are faced with the real prospect of the people of Britain going against them. In my view, a vote to leave would make us pretty much a laughing stock in serious circles. In that case, I think David Cameron should follow Nerc’s example and steadfastly refuse to accept the will of the people."
Didn't get past the byline. As a committed Remainian for the dumbest of reasons, Meeks' advice to Leave should be taken with an entire pillar of salt.
I thought he writes impartial advice balanced with the best of intentions?
I've never claimed to be impartial in my thread headers. My intentions are to either entertain or inform (myself if no one else).
What is your forecast today for the referendum outcome? Mine tonight is 53% LEAVE.
FYI Not looking to bet on this I only have a few bets on turnout and Leader replacements.
I continue to expect a clear win for Remain. I predicted 60:40 at the start of the year and that still looks entirely possible to me.
Why? Three reasons:
1) As more focus is put on the referendum campaign in the media, the public will be engaged more, which in turn will drive up likely turnout. I'm expecting turnout to be relatively high and have bet accordingly. Since the less engaged voters at present are disproportionately inclined to Remain, that should help Remain.
2) Leave are losing on their messaging on the economy. This is going to be decisive for many voters.
3) Leave's prospectus for future negotiations lacks plausibility. It will be hard to persuade the public that the rest of the EU really will give Britain everything it wants cost free. Many voters will be unnerved by this uncertainty.
AndyJS..Where does racism come into it..Cameron stated proven facts..Labour tried to drown it it out with Racism claims..
Racism and Labour are bedfellows - I'm just trying to find a third....... Islamophobia perhaps?
Ghani has rejected Cameron's cowardly attack point-blank. [ Namesake of Nusrat Ghani, the Tory MP. No relation as far as I am aware. ]
"Within minutes, Gani himself also rejected the claims, arguing he has always condemned IS. He challenged Cameron to repeat his comments outside the chamber so he could sue for defamation.
Labour sources have pointed out that Gani has also shared a stage with Jane Ellison, the Conservative health minister and met Tory MP Tania Mathias."
Simon Kelner says Cameron should reject the EU referendum if we vote the wrong way:
"I know they had to offer a referendum for narrow tactical reasons, and now they are faced with the real prospect of the people of Britain going against them. In my view, a vote to leave would make us pretty much a laughing stock in serious circles. In that case, I think David Cameron should follow Nerc’s example and steadfastly refuse to accept the will of the people."
Basically, the great and the good want us to vote Remain.
We can either tug our forelocks and do as they say, or stick two fingers up and vote Leave.
A victory for Leave will be a victory for the common man & woman.
A Labour for Leave poster with Cameron and Osborne in their most off-putting, smirking, giggling Parliamentary pose with "Do you REALLY want to support this pair and vote Remain?" could have considerable impact....
I think the route for a Leave victory lies through the Labour vote - I'm not sure there are too many more swingable Tories now. Those that are might plump 60:40 to Remain.
I'd be interested in Sandy's views on this. Danny/BJO are interesting too.
Your wish is my command...
The problem for Leave is that apart from a few lone voices, Labour is organisationally fully behind remain. CLP meetings have guest speakers from the Remain camp, branches organise street stalls to campaign for Remain and countless emails come from on high pushing the Remain message. Who is appealing to wavering Labour voters from the Leave side? George Galloway is the only known face, and he isn't even Labour. Ironically, if Corbyn hadn't won the leadership, I would have expected to see him and McDonnell front and centre in Labour Leave. Cameron lucky yet again.
Simon Kelner says Cameron should reject the EU referendum if we vote the wrong way:
"I know they had to offer a referendum for narrow tactical reasons, and now they are faced with the real prospect of the people of Britain going against them. In my view, a vote to leave would make us pretty much a laughing stock in serious circles. In that case, I think David Cameron should follow Nerc’s example and steadfastly refuse to accept the will of the people."
Basically, the great and the good want us to vote Remain.
We can either tug our forelocks and do as they say, or stick two fingers up and vote Leave.
A victory for Leave will be a victory for the common man & woman.
A Labour for Leave poster with Cameron and Osborne in their most off-putting, smirking, giggling Parliamentary pose with "Do you REALLY want to support this pair and vote Remain?" could have considerable impact....
I think the route for a Leave victory lies through the Labour vote - I'm not sure there are too many more swingable Tories now. Those that are might plump 60:40 to Remain.
I'd be interested in Sandy's views on this. Danny/BJO are interesting too.
Your wish is my command...
The problem for Leave is that apart from a few lone voices, Labour is organisationally fully behind remain. CLP meetings have guest speakers from the Remain camp, branches organise street stalls to campaign for Remain and countless emails come from on high pushing the Remain message. Who is appealing to wavering Labour voters from the Leave side? George Galloway is the only known face, and he isn't even Labour. Ironically, if Corbyn hadn't won the leadership, I would have expected to see him and McDonnell front and centre in Labour Leave. Cameron lucky yet again.
As I said yesterday more leave votes than remain in my branch meeting.
Didn't get past the byline. As a committed Remainian for the dumbest of reasons, Meeks' advice to Leave should be taken with an entire pillar of salt.
I thought he writes impartial advice balanced with the best of intentions?
I've never claimed to be impartial in my thread headers. My intentions are to either entertain or inform (myself if no one else).
What is your forecast today for the referendum outcome? Mine tonight is 53% LEAVE.
FYI Not looking to bet on this I only have a few bets on turnout and Leader replacements.
I continue to expect a clear win for Remain. I predicted 60:40 at the start of the year and that still looks entirely possible to me. Why? Three reasons:............
Have you considered that you need to look through the eyes of each key group in making such an assessment? For example, the working class that I know are closer to 50/50 and their turnout will be very low. These are all people who would not vote C or U.
Simon Kelner says Cameron should reject the EU referendum if we vote the wrong way:
"I know they had to offer a referendum for narrow tactical reasons, and now they are faced with the real prospect of the people of Britain going against them. In my view, a vote to leave would make us pretty much a laughing stock in serious circles. In that case, I think David Cameron should follow Nerc’s example and steadfastly refuse to accept the will of the people."
Basically, the great and the good want us to vote Remain.
We can either tug our forelocks and do as they say, or stick two fingers up and vote Leave.
A victory for Leave will be a victory for the common man & woman.
A Labour for Leave poster with Cameron and Osborne in their most off-putting, smirking, giggling Parliamentary pose with "Do you REALLY want to support this pair and vote Remain?" could have considerable impact....
I think the route for a Leave victory lies through the Labour vote - I'm not sure there are too many more swingable Tories now. Those that are might plump 60:40 to Remain.
I'd be interested in Sandy's views on this. Danny/BJO are interesting too.
Your wish is my command...
The problem for Leave is that apart from a few lone voices, Labour is organisationally fully behind remain. CLP meetings have guest speakers from the Remain camp, branches organise street stalls to campaign for Remain and countless emails come from on high pushing the Remain message. Who is appealing to wavering Labour voters from the Leave side? George Galloway is the only known face, and he isn't even Labour. Ironically, if Corbyn hadn't won the leadership, I would have expected to see him and McDonnell front and centre in Labour Leave. Cameron lucky yet again.
As I said yesterday more leave votes than remain in my branch meeting.
Basically, the great and the good want us to vote Remain.
We can either tug our forelocks and do as they say, or stick two fingers up and vote Leave.
A victory for Leave will be a victory for the common man & woman.
A Labour for Leave poster with Cameron and Osborne in their most off-putting, smirking, giggling Parliamentary pose with "Do you REALLY want to support this pair and vote Remain?" could have considerable impact....
I think the route for a Leave victory lies through the Labour vote - I'm not sure there are too many more swingable Tories now. Those that are might plump 60:40 to Remain.
I'd be interested in Sandy's views on this. Danny/BJO are interesting too.
Your wish is my command...
The problem for Leave is that apart from a few lone voices, Labour is organisationally fully behind remain. CLP meetings have guest speakers from the Remain camp, branches organise street stalls to campaign for Remain and countless emails come from on high pushing the Remain message. Who is appealing to wavering Labour voters from the Leave side? George Galloway is the only known face, and he isn't even Labour. Ironically, if Corbyn hadn't won the leadership, I would have expected to see him and McDonnell front and centre in Labour Leave. Cameron lucky yet again.
But is it similar to Scotland in that there is no overwhelming reason to vote Labour on this? Their voter base (outside of London and the BME dominated areas) are far more inclined to vote against immigration and register a protest vote because they are not gaining in this economic cycle
AndyJS..Where does racism come into it..Cameron stated proven facts..Labour tried to drown it it out with Racism claims..
Racism and Labour are bedfellows - I'm just trying to find a third....... Islamophobia perhaps?
Ghani has rejected Cameron's cowardly attack point-blank. [ Namesake of Nusrat Ghani, the Tory MP. No relation as far as I am aware. ]
"Within minutes, Gani himself also rejected the claims, arguing he has always condemned IS. He challenged Cameron to repeat his comments outside the chamber so he could sue for defamation.
Labour sources have pointed out that Gani has also shared a stage with Jane Ellison, the Conservative health minister and met Tory MP Tania Mathias."
Simon Kelner says Cameron should reject the EU referendum if we vote the wrong way:
"I know they had to offer a referendum for narrow tactical reasons, and now they are faced with the real prospect of the people of Britain going against them. In my view, a vote to leave would make us pretty much a laughing stock in serious circles. In that case, I think David Cameron should follow Nerc’s example and steadfastly refuse to accept the will of the people."
Basically, the great and the good want us to vote Remain.
We can either tug our forelocks and do as they say, or stick two fingers up and vote Leave.
A victory for Leave will be a victory for the common man & woman.
A Labour for Leave poster with Cameron and Osborne in their most off-putting, smirking, giggling Parliamentary pose with "Do you REALLY want to support this pair and vote Remain?" could have considerable impact....
I think the route for a Leave victory lies through the Labour vote - I'm not sure there are too many more swingable Tories now. Those that are might plump 60:40 to Remain.
I'd be interested in Sandy's views on this. Danny/BJO are interesting too.
Your wish is my command...
The problem for Leave is that apart from a few lone voices, Labour is organisationally fully behind remain. CLP meetings have guest speakers from the Remain camp, branches organise street stalls to campaign for Remain and countless emails come from on high pushing the Remain message. Who is appealing to wavering Labour voters from the Leave side? George Galloway is the only known face, and he isn't even Labour. Ironically, if Corbyn hadn't won the leadership, I would have expected to see him and McDonnell front and centre in Labour Leave. Cameron lucky yet again.
As I said yesterday more leave votes than remain in my branch meeting.
Didn't get past the byline. As a committed Remainian for the dumbest of reasons, Meeks' advice to Leave should be taken with an entire pillar of salt.
I thought he writes impartial advice balanced with the best of intentions?
I've never claimed to be impartial in my thread headers. My intentions are to either entertain or inform (myself if no one else).
What is your forecast today for the referendum outcome? Mine tonight is 53% LEAVE.
FYI Not looking to bet on this I only have a few bets on turnout and Leader replacements.
I continue to expect a clear win for Remain. I predicted 60:40 at the start of the year and that still looks entirely possible to me.
Why? Three reasons:
1) As more focus is put on the referendum campaign in the media, the public will be engaged more, which in turn will drive up likely turnout. I'm expecting turnout to be relatively high and have bet accordingly. Since the less engaged voters at present are disproportionately inclined to Remain, that should help Remain.
2) Leave are losing on their messaging on the economy. This is going to be decisive for many voters.
3) Leave's prospectus for future negotiations lacks plausibility. It will be hard to persuade the public that the rest of the EU really will give Britain everything it wants cost free. Many voters will be unnerved by this uncertainty.
I don't think Remain will get more than about 57% as a best case scenario.
Simon Kelner says Cameron should reject the EU referendum if we vote the wrong way:
"I know they had to offer a referendum for narrow tactical reasons, and now they are faced with the real prospect of the people of Britain going against them. In my view, a vote to leave would make us pretty much a laughing stock in serious circles. In that case, I think David Cameron should follow Nerc’s example and steadfastly refuse to accept the will of the people."
These are the people you are supporting. Think on it.
With respect the vast majority of remain supporters would support my comments. Besides David Cameron will very soon after the 23rd June on a leave vote enact section 50 and anything less would be totally unacceptable
And yet, that hasn’t always been their view. Before and during the renegotiation with the EU, they were happy to regularly suggest that if Brussels failed to meet their demands, then they “ruled nothing out”, ie they might be willing to support a Leave vote. Doing so wasn’t a one-off slip of the tongue, it was a deliberate message, communicated for over a year on television, in print and in front of Select Committees. Here are seven examples...
Basically, the great and the good want us to vote Remain.
We can either tug our forelocks and do as they say, or stick two fingers up and vote Leave.
A victory for Leave will be a victory for the common man & woman.
A Labour for Leave poster with Cameron and Osborne in their most off-putting, smirking, giggling Parliamentary pose with "Do you REALLY want to support this pair and vote Remain?" could have considerable impact....
I think the route for a Leave victory lies through the Labour vote - I'm not sure there are too many more swingable Tories now. Those that are might plump 60:40 to Remain.
I'd be interested in Sandy's views on this. Danny/BJO are interesting too.
Your wish is my command...
The problem for Leave is that apart from a few lone voices, Labour is organisationally fully behind remain. CLP meetings have guest speakers from the Remain camp, branches organise street stalls to campaign for Remain and countless emails come from on high pushing the Remain message. Who is appealing to wavering Labour voters from the Leave side? George Galloway is the only known face, and he isn't even Labour. Ironically, if Corbyn hadn't won the leadership, I would have expected to see him and McDonnell front and centre in Labour Leave. Cameron lucky yet again.
But is it similar to Scotland in that there is no overwhelming reason to vote Labour on this? Their voter base (outside of London and the BME dominated areas) are far more inclined to vote against immigration and register a protest vote because they are not gaining in this economic cycle
That may the case with Labour / UKIP floaters, but I think pukka lefties will be less inclined to vote Leave without a lead from the left of the PLP.
On C4 News "Lib Dem candidates considering action" against the Conservatives over election spending.
Of course Lib Dems used to be amongst the worst at doing this for by elections.
Do you have anything to back that assertion up? I googled "challenged for overspending at elections" and it seems it's allegations of Tories overspending to beat UKIP or to win 24 marginal seats at the GE: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tory-mps-broke-election-laws-7467576 They have the money, after all.
Well a good start for the Welsh Elections - postal ballot papers in three counties Ceredigion , Carmarthen and Pembrokeshire have to be re printed and sent out AGAIN after an error was spotted - love the way they blame the printers but am sure they are working with what they were given
The person placing the order will be asked to sign off on the artwork before the printing starts.
Indeed. Either the client provides a print ready PDF or the printer sends them a PDF proof to sign off. It's inconceivable for something like this that the client didn't approve the artwork.
Well a good start for the Welsh Elections - postal ballot papers in three counties Ceredigion , Carmarthen and Pembrokeshire have to be re printed and sent out AGAIN after an error was spotted - love the way they blame the printers but am sure they are working with what they were given
The person placing the order will be asked to sign off on the artwork before the printing starts.
Indeed. Either the client provides a print ready PDF or the printer sends them a PDF proof to sign off. It's inconceivable for something like this that the client didn't approve the artwork.
Received our postal votes for the Welsh Assembly and Crime Commissioner and you need a degree to work out the paperwork. With a large number of elderly in our area I am sure that many may just not bother.
Well a good start for the Welsh Elections - postal ballot papers in three counties Ceredigion , Carmarthen and Pembrokeshire have to be re printed and sent out AGAIN after an error was spotted - love the way they blame the printers but am sure they are working with what they were given
The person placing the order will be asked to sign off on the artwork before the printing starts.
Indeed. Either the client provides a print ready PDF or the printer sends them a PDF proof to sign off. It's inconceivable for something like this that the client didn't approve the artwork.
What exactly was wrong with the wording. The old version says "Vote for only one candidate" the second says "Vote only once"? They are both as restrictive.
Also, I feel I should bring their usage of inverted commas around 'Tan' to the attention of @Morris_Dancer
Comments
Of course if oil starts to rise again things can change around quickly but I should warn you that AEP has forecast exactly that.
Making this a core aim and tactic, would make sense if the REMAIN Campaign is relying on the trust and image of Cameron to win. Which since they are, so far, it invites the attacks.
As for the weather in Moscow, you'd have to ask that noted supporter of Brexit, Vladimir Putin.
Me, I'm off for the evening, to psych myself up to watch the Merseyside derby on the telly
Another, more controversial, example is the obsession with a fixed (and overvalued) sterling exchange rate from the 1940s-early 1970s. Suggesting a floating rate was considered tantamount to heresy at the time yet it would definitely have been the right choice.
To be fair to quite a few of the 364 signatories though, they would now accept they made a mistake - and it was an honest mistake.
That can't be said of the propagandists who forecast doom if we left the ERM, doom if we didn't join the euro and are now forecasting doom in the event of LEAVE.
If they don;t have the economy, then its more difficult, surely.
http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/
Dear Ossie - here is Merv, suck it up.
I was hoping for better from you than that.
At the very least it should tell you to take your own firm's forecast with a big pinch of salt, and all the others too.
Votes cast are approaching 400.
Likely to be heavily dominated by male C1/C2 voters. It's a Labour heartland.
I don't know about you lot, but there seems to be more than the average number of celebrities and famous people dying this year.
Comedian Victoria Wood dies aged 62
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-36094827
We've heard it all before.
"Theodore Dalrymple; Women are more vulnerable than men; which is why men commit suicide three times more often?"
http://salisburyreview.com/2016/04/women-vulnerable-men-men-commit-suicide-three-times-often/
Obviously that voodoo poll is just that, but it does make you think.
'Nigel Farage blasts 'irrelevant' UKIP activists over David Coburn quit row'
http://tinyurl.com/gp5lomc
He also appears to favour patriotic communism over the Trotskyite sort.
'He also welcomed the recent support for Brexit at an STUC fringe event in Dundee led by RMT general secretary Mick Cash and Communist Party candidate Raymond Mennie..
He described Mick Cash's Scottish Left Leave Campaign as "patriotic". "They believe that their parents and grandparents fought, and in some cases sacrificed everything they had, for us to be a free, independent democratic nation," he said.
Mr Mennie told STUC delegates the European Union is the fulfilment of the ideas of the Nazis.
Mr Farage said: "Some people tell me that the Nazis planned this all along. Other people tell me it is pure Trotskyite communism."'
http://www.pembrokeshire-herald.com/24171/new-ballot-papers-being-issued-to-postal-voters-after-printing-error/#comment-67891
Looking at the weighting which produces 23% more 18-34 voters than the 65+. Chestnut in an earlier post referred me to Ipsos mori finding from the GE that it was just 17% higher. The effect of this would bring down the gap for phone survey by a few % and with MOE we are looking at level pegging.
The other factor is that ICM are taking the rating on certainty to vote from the respondent, not from likely behaviour. Also is a weightings by GE a good tool or should they be using weightings by local elections when the 65+ turnout in even greater % compared to the younger voters (commitment and postal vote effects)? This needs further thought.
I guess where I differ is the view that this is a considered approach. I don't think it is, I think it's one born out of emotionalism rather Than rationalism. Nothing wrong with with but I suspect that AMs empathy with the emotional approach is limited. That mismatch is brought to life here by be poster dithering over whether to attend a work/stay event and concern about tongue biting.
I'd be interested in Sandy's views on this. Danny/BJO are interesting too.
Dan Hannan
"In the 25 years I’ve known him, George Osborne has always supported deeper integration with the EU. For many of those years, George wanted Britain to join the euro. Nothing wrong with that. Though we obviously disagree, I admire his consistency."
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/daniel-hannan-in-an-uncertain-world-britain-would-be-safer-running-its-own-affairs-a3228706.html
I think Vote Leave need to expand it from just being a Gove/Boris show, absolutely.
I assume the whole board bought into the strategy so I hope to see a few leading Labour figures like Hooey/Stuart/Field and Owen now going off to sell it.
So is this where the Labour REMAIN campaign supporters attack the REMAIN campaign front man Mr Meeks? Always the danger of REMAIN relying on Cameron to front things....
A. In most circumstances I suspect you would say that you are a rational individual but specific emotion could trump this;
B. Lawyers, outside the tediously crusading type*, should be avowedly rational. One leaves the emotion to clients; and
C. Your line is generally seen as the starter to a Glasgow kiss...
* and there has never been a crusading pensions lawyer.
Now, he has a divided party, and will be shunned as a social pariah by half it's supporters, whilst giving ammunition to the Opposition. Foolish man.
Is that it?
"Angry Labour MPs accused Mr Cameron of racism during Prime Minister's Questions in the House of Commons as he detailed Mr Khan's nine appearances alongside Sulaiman Ghani, who he said was a supporter of the Islamic State terror group."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/20/david-cameron-called-racist-after-accusing-sadiq-khan-over-links/
REMAIN will never be as repulsive to the remaining Labour supporters
Call yourself gamblers?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3550327/Is-Jeremy-Corbyn-plotting-early-exit-s-advertising-new-spin-doctor-long-s-Labour-leader-December-31-whichever-sooner.html
Did not clear the decks ahead of the referendum and local elections! Illustrates the absence of Crosby who insisted on a clear out of problems well before the GE.
Trump 55 .. Kasich 18 .. Cruz 15
Clinton 45 .. Sanders 38
http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/delaware-polling/
"I know they had to offer a referendum for narrow tactical reasons, and now they are faced with the real prospect of the people of Britain going against them. In my view, a vote to leave would make us pretty much a laughing stock in serious circles. In that case, I think David Cameron should follow Nerc’s example and steadfastly refuse to accept the will of the people."
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/columnists/britain-says-leave-cameron-reject-vote/
Of course Lib Dems used to be amongst the worst at doing this for by elections.
FYI Not looking to bet on this I only have a few bets on turnout and Leader replacements.
So you have to add this increasing 'death by old age' to the 'death by illness/ misadventure' random deaths.
if you want a morbid site - have a look at http://www.deathlist.net/
Odds
Stake
Profit
60.01 - 65.0 Percent 8.6 £11.00 £83.60
Why? Three reasons:
1) As more focus is put on the referendum campaign in the media, the public will be engaged more, which in turn will drive up likely turnout. I'm expecting turnout to be relatively high and have bet accordingly. Since the less engaged voters at present are disproportionately inclined to Remain, that should help Remain.
2) Leave are losing on their messaging on the economy. This is going to be decisive for many voters.
3) Leave's prospectus for future negotiations lacks plausibility. It will be hard to persuade the public that the rest of the EU really will give Britain everything it wants cost free. Many voters will be unnerved by this uncertainty.
"Within minutes, Gani himself also rejected the claims, arguing he has always condemned IS. He challenged Cameron to repeat his comments outside the chamber so he could sue for defamation.
Labour sources have pointed out that Gani has also shared a stage with Jane Ellison, the Conservative health minister and met Tory MP Tania Mathias."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/20/mps-shout-racist-at-cameron-after-comments-on-sadiq-khan-in-pmqs
The problem for Leave is that apart from a few lone voices, Labour is organisationally fully behind remain. CLP meetings have guest speakers from the Remain camp, branches organise street stalls to campaign for Remain and countless emails come from on high pushing the Remain message. Who is appealing to wavering Labour voters from the Leave side? George Galloway is the only known face, and he isn't even Labour. Ironically, if Corbyn hadn't won the leadership, I would have expected to see him and McDonnell front and centre in Labour Leave. Cameron lucky yet again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzCRJf0Yqi0
I googled "challenged for overspending at elections" and it seems it's allegations of Tories overspending to beat UKIP or to win 24 marginal seats at the GE:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tory-mps-broke-election-laws-7467576
They have the money, after all.
Also, I feel I should bring their usage of inverted commas around 'Tan' to the attention of @Morris_Dancer