Mr. Eagles, indeed, quite right to highlight Britain's historic successes fighting against the monstrosity of European empire-building.
How on EARTH did we do that without being a member of the EU...??
We defeated Napoleon as part as a vast Europe wide coalition, and with some of our Canadian cousins too.
As for World War II, we did it as part of a Europe Wide alliance, with massive help from our Empire forces.
WW2 was won and lost on the Steppes and the slopes of Mt.Elbrus. The same argument can be made quite plausibly with Napoleon's retreat from Moscow leading to the 1813 campaign.
It's only cumbersome if people want it to be - Peter's point is precisely that they wouldn't.
No, it's cumbersome because it's cumbersome, involving a disparate group of countries each with their own agendas and domestic political issues, as well the EU bureaucracy and the European Parliament. It's not even quite clear whether it would require unanimity amongst the other 27 EU governments, but it might. At the very least it will require a QMV majority. So whilst the main participants might indeed want to come to a deal quickly, that's not enough to ensure that they'll be able to.
"No, it's cumbersome because it's cumbersome, involving a disparate group of countries each with their own agendas and domestic political issues, as well the EU bureaucracy and the European Parliament."
"No, it's cumbersome because it's cumbersome, involving a disparate group of countries each with their own agendas and domestic political issues, as well the EU bureaucracy and the European Parliament."
And you want to remain part of this organisation?
On balance, yes. Bear in mind that the alternative is that we open bilateral negotiations not only with the same cumbersome organisation, but also with many dozens of other states. I'm just being realistic.
It's only cumbersome if people want it to be - Peter's point is precisely that they wouldn't.
No, it's cumbersome because it's cumbersome, involving a disparate group of countries each with their own agendas and domestic political issues, as well the EU bureaucracy and the European Parliament. It's not even quite clear whether it would require unanimity amongst the other 27 EU governments, but it might. At the very least it will require a QMV majority. So whilst the main participants might indeed want to come to a deal quickly, that's not enough to ensure that they'll be able to.
You are just repeating yourself now. Nothing in life is certain, but Peter is I am sure right that there will be a lot of pressure for a quick deal to be done, and on what may be surprisingly favourable terms. Another reason for this is the still very fragile nature of the Eurozone economic recovery.
And (if I may repeat myself) his criticisms of the economics of the Treasury report are very good ones. It is being slowly revealed as the shoddy piece of propaganda it is.
Don't panic Richard, we all let our guards down and allow the truth to slip out de temps en temps. You have acknowledged that all the stuff and nonsense you have been banging on about is your "personal view". I, personally, welcome that admission.
Sorry Topping but these strange misquotes really don't fool anyone. All they show is that your actual grasp of the subject matter is so flaky and shallow that you have to rely upon deflection rather than dealing with the issues. Of course the problem is that you write opinion as fact whereas I make a point of distinguishing between the two.
So please do continue with your asides. At least they save us from your fantasy ideas about how the EEA or EFTA work which bear no resemblance to reality at all.
It seems to me that the 'immigration' issues have been divided up into about four questions of different sorts in that survey.
Added together, they are more than the economy...
They are not different options as it is unprompted. The issue is how they choose to collate them afterwards.
You can also the economy is divided into three different categories, adding up to 55%
You can't just add them (Economy or immigration related ones), the intersects need to be subtracted as well - else you're assuming zero correlation between the issues.
Adding "most important issue" is a quick workaround.
Impact on economy + Impact on British jobs + ability to trade = 25
Immigrants into Britain + Cost on welfare system + refugees + housing = 24
That was kinda my point, you can really add things together from that poll with 100% certainty.
I did some analysis on one of the "issues" poll to test Mr Meek's hypothesis that the EU and immigration are seen as seperate issues. I came to the conclusion that voters concerned about hospitals tend to be concerned about schools too.
I've got a thread coming up on that topic, and the gender splits.
If Leave want to win, they need to reassure women
By writing thread headers about blow jobs
If you find PB so offensive it's a wonder you trouble OGH and TSE with your presence.
I don't find it offensive and have no idea why would suggest I do.
Depends on how you view it. If you see the EU as a massive issue, more important than the odd GE, then the referendum is the priority. On the other hand, if you see EU membership as important but not worth handing the country to Corbyn over, then being in a position to win in 2020 matters more. The EU is just one policy. A different government could change everything.
Corbyn is only for a few years. The EU is for much longer.
Don't panic Richard, we all let our guards down and allow the truth to slip out de temps en temps. You have acknowledged that all the stuff and nonsense you have been banging on about is your "personal view". I, personally, welcome that admission.
Sorry Topping but these strange misquotes really don't fool anyone. All they show is that your actual grasp of the subject matter is so flaky and shallow that you have to rely upon deflection rather than dealing with the issues. Of course the problem is that you write opinion as fact whereas I make a point of distinguishing between the two.
So please do continue with your asides. At least they save us from your fantasy ideas about how the EEA or EFTA work which bear no resemblance to reality at all.
stop digging, Richard.
Just highlighting your modus operandi and the facile nature of your arguments. Now since Vote Leave appears to have opted against the EEA route it is probably moot but if you want we can reopen your strange views on how EFTA works and I can show everyone how ignorant you are yet again.
...Another reason for this is the still very fragile nature of the Eurozone economic recovery....
That point I very much agree with. The potential effect of Brexit on the Eurozone is one of the major short-term risk factors for us, and one which I don't think has had enough attention.
You want to be long in US dollar or Swiss franc denominated assets, I think.
The Issue Index - 10/10 to Vote - Most Important Issue
REMAIN - 34
Economy 20, Trade 4, Jobs 2, Workers Rights 2, Personal Impact 1, International Relations 1, Human Rights 1, Free Movement 1, Pro EU 1, Global Standing 1
LEAVE - 37
Immigrants 15, Sovereignty 8, Welfare Payouts 5, EU Fees 3, Security 2, Housing and Public Services 1, Refugees 1, EU Regulations 1, Anti EU 1
That's quite revealing I think.
I'm not sure "Jobs" should be entirely within "Remain" to be honest. "Security" might also be partially "remain" though...
It's probably fair on balance.
I think this referendum is going to tell us quite a lot. In that sense it's quite interesting.
It will tell us those who will always put their fears for the economy first, despite anything they might say about immigration or sovereignty otherwise, and how many don't care about the EU, or actually like it.
It will tell us who will actually go out and vote on regulations, laws, migration, and democracy.
It might also tell us what would be finally required to swing it, if Leave don't win.
Personally, I stick to a prima facie case that we'd immediately be better off exiting and the EU deliberately hitting the Uk and voters directly in their pockets, a Tory PM who is a Leaver, a pre-negotiated deal on the table and a recommendation to ratify it in a referendum for immediate implementation.
Which I suspect would be won 70%+. If Leave get to 10% or less with all their disadvantages this time, that's actually quite good,
Mr. Eagles, indeed, quite right to highlight Britain's historic successes fighting against the monstrosity of European empire-building.
How on EARTH did we do that without being a member of the EU...??
We defeated Napoleon as part as a vast Europe wide coalition, and with some of our Canadian cousins too.
As for World War II, we did it as part of a Europe Wide alliance, with massive help from our Empire forces.
Eagles = Neville Chamberlain
Tykejohnno = Winston Churchill
Harsh to call Johnno a pissed up racist like Churchill.
I would have been most upset if you had compared me to Lord Halifax.
I did consider it, but then I thought Halifax had more of a spine.
PS looking at WW2 leaders I can't actually think of one who wasn't a pissed up racist, bar Adolf he was a sober one.
FDR and Harry Truman surely?
I can't see Japanese Americans agreeing with you.
True, I've always rated both FDR and Truman as truly great Presidents.
FDR for being the most duplicitous bastard to be President, officially being neutral at the start of World War II, but doing everything he could to help the UK. Plus his Germany first policy was a key moment of WW2.
Truman for desegrating the army, having the balls to drop the bombs, and after leaving office, not accepting any offers as he thought it would demean the office of President.
It seems to me that the 'immigration' issues have been divided up into about four questions of different sorts in that survey.
Added together, they are more than the economy...
They are not different options as it is unprompted. The issue is how they choose to collate them afterwards.
You can also the economy is divided into three different categories, adding up to 55%
You can't just add them (Economy or immigration related ones), the intersects need to be subtracted as well - else you're assuming zero correlation between the issues.
Adding "most important issue" is a quick workaround.
Impact on economy + Impact on British jobs + ability to trade = 25
Immigrants into Britain + Cost on welfare system + refugees + housing = 24
That was kinda my point, you can really add things together from that poll with 100% certainty.
I did some analysis on one of the "issues" poll to test Mr Meek's hypothesis that the EU and immigration are seen as seperate issues. I came to the conclusion that voters concerned about hospitals tend to be concerned about schools too.
I've got a thread coming up on that topic, and the gender splits.
If Leave want to win, they need to reassure women
By writing thread headers about blow jobs
If you find PB so offensive it's a wonder you trouble OGH and TSE with your presence.
I don't find it offensive and have no idea why would suggest I do.
Do you tweet about blow jobs? If not why not?
I have no head for such matters.
Let TSE tweet about blowjobs if he wants to - there's far worse on twitter. My issue is that it doesn't in any way shape of form constitute commentary, even bad commentary. Nor was it informative in any way. As such it was probably the lowest quality post I've seen whilst I've been viewing the site. I noticed that TSE didn't put his name on it, I presume because that would have made it look even more risible than it akready did.
Mr. Eagles, indeed, quite right to highlight Britain's historic successes fighting against the monstrosity of European empire-building.
How on EARTH did we do that without being a member of the EU...??
We defeated Napoleon as part as a vast Europe wide coalition, and with some of our Canadian cousins too.
As for World War II, we did it as part of a Europe Wide alliance, with massive help from our Empire forces.
Eagles = Neville Chamberlain
Tykejohnno = Winston Churchill
Harsh to call Johnno a pissed up racist like Churchill.
I would have been most upset if you had compared me to Lord Halifax.
I did consider it, but then I thought Halifax had more of a spine.
PS looking at WW2 leaders I can't actually think of one who wasn't a pissed up racist, bar Adolf he was a sober one.
FDR and Harry Truman surely?
I can't see Japanese Americans agreeing with you.
True, I've always rated both FDR and Truman as truly great Presidents.
FDR for being the most duplicitous bastard to be President, officially being neutral at the start of World War II, but doing everything he could to help the UK. Plus his Germany first policy was a key moment of WW2.
Truman for desegrating the army, having the balls to drop the bombs, and after leaving office, not accepting any offers as he thought it would demean the office of President.
I think it just shows "greatness" requires a ruthless bastard streak and heroes aren't perfect.
It seems to me that the 'immigration' issues have been divided up into about four questions of different sorts in that survey.
Added together, they are more than the economy...
They are not different options as it is unprompted. The issue is how they choose to collate them afterwards.
You can also the economy is divided into three different categories, adding up to 55%
You can't just add them (Economy or immigration related ones), the intersects need to be subtracted as well - else you're assuming zero correlation between the issues.
Adding "most important issue" is a quick workaround.
Impact on economy + Impact on British jobs + ability to trade = 25
Immigrants into Britain + Cost on welfare system + refugees + housing = 24
That was kinda my point, you can really add things together from that poll with 100% certainty.
I did some analysis on one of the "issues" poll to test Mr Meek's hypothesis that the EU and immigration are seen as seperate issues. I came to the conclusion that voters concerned about hospitals tend to be concerned about schools too.
I've got a thread coming up on that topic, and the gender splits.
If Leave want to win, they need to reassure women
By writing thread headers about blow jobs
If you find PB so offensive it's a wonder you trouble OGH and TSE with your presence.
I don't find it offensive and have no idea why would suggest I do.
Do you tweet about blow jobs? If not why not?
I have no head for such matters.
Let TSE tweet about blowjobs if he wants to - there's far worse on twitter. My issue is that it doesn't in any way shape of form constitute commentary, even bad commentary. Nor was it informative in any way. As such it was probably the lowest quality post I've seen whilst I've been viewing the site. I noticed that TSE didn't put his name on it, I presume because that would have made it even more risible than it was.
Mike wrote the thread, honestly, I don't talk about myself in the third person.
I had no idea he was planning on doing it until he published it.
Mr. Eagles, indeed, quite right to highlight Britain's historic successes fighting against the monstrosity of European empire-building.
How on EARTH did we do that without being a member of the EU...??
We defeated Napoleon as part as a vast Europe wide coalition, and with some of our Canadian cousins too.
As for World War II, we did it as part of a Europe Wide alliance, with massive help from our Empire forces.
Eagles = Neville Chamberlain
Tykejohnno = Winston Churchill
Harsh to call Johnno a pissed up racist like Churchill.
I would have been most upset if you had compared me to Lord Halifax.
I did consider it, but then I thought Halifax had more of a spine.
PS looking at WW2 leaders I can't actually think of one who wasn't a pissed up racist, bar Adolf he was a sober one.
FDR and Harry Truman surely?
I can't see Japanese Americans agreeing with you.
True, I've always rated both FDR and Truman as truly great Presidents.
FDR for being the most duplicitous bastard to be President, officially being neutral at the start of World War II, but doing everything he could to help the UK. Plus his Germany first policy was a key moment of WW2.
Truman for desegrating the army, having the balls to drop the bombs, and after leaving office, not accepting any offers as he thought it would demean the office of President.
The Russian invasion of Manchuria, Sakhalin and the Kuriles may have been just as important as the nukes in convincing the Japanese to surrender.
Remember, as per Yalta Agreement, Stalin had to attack Japan three months after VE Day.
Don't panic Richard, we all let our guards down and allow the truth to slip out de temps en temps. You have acknowledged that all the stuff and nonsense you have been banging on about is your "personal view". I, personally, welcome that admission.
Sorry Topping but these strange misquotes really don't fool anyone. All they show is that your actual grasp of the subject matter is so flaky and shallow that you have to rely upon deflection rather than dealing with the issues. Of course the problem is that you write opinion as fact whereas I make a point of distinguishing between the two.
So please do continue with your asides. At least they save us from your fantasy ideas about how the EEA or EFTA work which bear no resemblance to reality at all.
stop digging, Richard.
Just highlighting your modus operandi and the facile nature of your arguments. Now since Vote Leave appears to have opted against the EEA route it is probably moot but if you want we can reopen your strange views on how EFTA works and I can show everyone how ignorant you are yet again.
I'm sure everyone is grateful for your incisive and conclusive views.
Mr. Eagles, indeed, quite right to highlight Britain's historic successes fighting against the monstrosity of European empire-building.
How on EARTH did we do that without being a member of the EU...??
We defeated Napoleon as part as a vast Europe wide coalition, and with some of our Canadian cousins too.
As for World War II, we did it as part of a Europe Wide alliance, with massive help from our Empire forces.
Eagles = Neville Chamberlain
Tykejohnno = Winston Churchill
Harsh to call Johnno a pissed up racist like Churchill.
I would have been most upset if you had compared me to Lord Halifax.
I did consider it, but then I thought Halifax had more of a spine.
PS looking at WW2 leaders I can't actually think of one who wasn't a pissed up racist, bar Adolf he was a sober one.
FDR and Harry Truman surely?
I can't see Japanese Americans agreeing with you.
True, I've always rated both FDR and Truman as truly great Presidents.
FDR for being the most duplicitous bastard to be President, officially being neutral at the start of World War II, but doing everything he could to help the UK. Plus his Germany first policy was a key moment of WW2.
Truman for desegrating the army, having the balls to drop the bombs, and after leaving office, not accepting any offers as he thought it would demean the office of President.
The Russian invasion of Manchuria, Sakhalin and the Kuriles may have been just as important as the nukes in convincing the Japanese to surrender.
Remember, as per Yalta Agreement, Stalin had to attack Japan three months after VE Day.
Russia's current behaviour over the Kurile Islands is imo totally unacceptable. Sadly they're not a PB hot topic, or people might find my views on Russia more nuanced than they think.
Lord King 'economic threat of Brexit is being exaggerated'
'I'm old enough to remember the referendum in Britain in 1975 on exactly the same issue. The one thing that both sides of the argument then were wrong about was that it would make a dramatic difference. It didn't.'
Very sad and shocking news about Victoria Wood. She used to make my wife cry with laughter. And me sometimes, too. Very talented, very funny. Good grief! What is with this year? Very sad. RIP.
Mike wrote the thread, honestly, I don't talk about myself in the third person.
I had no idea he was planning on doing it until he published it.
Ah ok, thanks for the info. No offence to the tweet, but I really don't get why he did that.
Sometimes Mike is busy, sometimes it is very hard to write a thread, and you just stick in a couple of tweets as that's your thread header.
Until I became guest editor, it wasn't something I really appreciated, for most of the year, Mike writes 3 threads a day. On average he writes 15-20 threads a week.
My longest stint as guest editor is just over 3 weeks, after about week 2, you're suffering from writer's block and struggling with stuff to write about.
Just imagine what Mike must feel like after doing this for 12 years plus.
Mr. Eagles, indeed, quite right to highlight Britain's historic successes fighting against the monstrosity of European empire-building.
How on EARTH did we do that without being a member of the EU...??
We defeated Napoleon as part as a vast Europe wide coalition, and with some of our Canadian cousins too.
As for World War II, we did it as part of a Europe Wide alliance, with massive help from our Empire forces.
Eagles = Neville Chamberlain
Tykejohnno = Winston Churchill
Harsh to call Johnno a pissed up racist like Churchill.
I would have been most upset if you had compared me to Lord Halifax.
I did consider it, but then I thought Halifax had more of a spine.
PS looking at WW2 leaders I can't actually think of one who wasn't a pissed up racist, bar Adolf he was a sober one.
FDR and Harry Truman surely?
I can't see Japanese Americans agreeing with you.
True, I've always rated both FDR and Truman as truly great Presidents.
FDR for being the most duplicitous bastard to be President, officially being neutral at the start of World War II, but doing everything he could to help the UK. Plus his Germany first policy was a key moment of WW2.
Truman for desegrating the army, having the balls to drop the bombs, and after leaving office, not accepting any offers as he thought it would demean the office of President.
What makes me laugh about FDR was that he was also a duplicitous bastard to Churchill, then tried it on with Stalin but met his match.
Stalin was *such* a duplicitous bastard he manipulated the whole West through FDR. Even Churchill saw it but FDR never suspected anything, wouldn't listen to Churchill, and genuinely thought he had Stalin eating out of his palm.
I always have a default cynical position when it comes to news stories involving any type of celebrity, but christ on a bike Lily Allen's ordeal sounds absolubtely horrendous and the stuff of nightmares.
Britain currently relies largely on information provided by European intelligence agencies on suspected terrorists when establishing whether people attempting to enter the country pose a risk.
Genuine WTF moment when we are a major provider and sharer in the world's premium intelligence network and the rest of Europe... isnt. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Eyes
Mike wrote the thread, honestly, I don't talk about myself in the third person.
I had no idea he was planning on doing it until he published it.
Ah ok, thanks for the info. No offence to the tweet, but I really don't get why he did that.
Sometimes Mike is busy, sometimes it is very hard to write a thread, and you just stick in a couple of tweets as that's your thread header.
Until I became guest editor, it wasn't something I really appreciated, for most of the year, Mike writes 3 threads a day. On average he writes 15-20 threads a week.
My longest stint as guest editor is just over 3 weeks, after about week 2, you're suffering from writer's block and struggling with stuff to write about.
Just imagine what Mike must feel like after doing this for 12 years plus.
Mike wrote the thread, honestly, I don't talk about myself in the third person.
I had no idea he was planning on doing it until he published it.
Ah ok, thanks for the info. No offence to the tweet, but I really don't get why he did that.
Sometimes Mike is busy, sometimes it is very hard to write a thread, and you just stick in a couple of tweets as that's your thread header.
Until I became guest editor, it wasn't something I really appreciated, for most of the year, Mike writes 3 threads a day. On average he writes 15-20 threads a week.
My longest stint as guest editor is just over 3 weeks, after about week 2, you're suffering from writer's block and struggling with stuff to write about.
Just imagine what Mike must feel like after doing this for 12 years plus.
To say nothing of what his wife feels like...
I think her patience has only been tested when Mike delayed their holiday because of the Indyref.
Well, I shall be motoring down the Mediterranean coast of Italy on my way to the delights of Naples and the Amalfi coast at the time of the referendum.
For the first time in my life I will get a postal vote.
It will be interesting viewing the result from outside the UK.
It seems to me that the 'immigration' issues have been divided up into about four questions of different sorts in that survey.
Added together, they are more than the economy...
They are not different options as it is unprompted. The issue is how they choose to collate them afterwards.
You can also the economy is divided into three different categories, adding up to 55%
Impact on economy + Impact on British jobs + ability to trade = 25
Immigrants into Britain + Cost on welfare system + refugees + housing = 24
That was kinda my point, you can really add things together from that poll with 100% certainty.
I did some analysis on one of the "issues" poll to test Mr Meek's hypothesis that the EU and immigration are seen as seperate issues. I came to the conclusion that voters concerned about hospitals tend to be concerned about schools too.
I've got a thread coming up on that topic, and the gender splits.
If Leave want to win, they need to reassure women
By writing thread headers about blow jobs
If you find PB so offensive it's a wonder you trouble OGH and TSE with your presence.
I don't find it offensive and have no idea why would suggest I do.
Do you tweet about blow jobs? If not why not?
I have no head for such matters.
Let TSE tweet about blowjobs if he wants to - there's far worse on twitter. My issue is that it doesn't in any way shape of form constitute commentary, even bad commentary. Nor was it informative in any way. As such it was probably the lowest quality post I've seen whilst I've been viewing the site. I noticed that TSE didn't put his name on it, I presume because that would have made it look even more risible than it akready did.
Not every thread on PB has to be candidate for the Nobel Prize for Literature.
And if the worse for our considerable entry fee that we have to worry about is one thread leader reference to rumpy pumpy then clearly we'd should all be rushing down to Trading Standards and asking about a refund.
Mr. 1983, could you give us a quick summary of the Kurile Islands situation?
In my opinion it's a simple case of victor's justice. Japan claims the southernmost two islands, in accordance with an 1855 treaty (I had to look this up), Russia had the rest, but Russia grabbed them in the war and have simply deported all the Japanese back to mainland Japan. The Russians have no legal claim that I can see. They have offered to give back the closest two Islands to Japan, which is about 7% of what the Japanese claim. Land-grabbing in this fashion when you're the biggest country in the world seems pointless.
Mike wrote the thread, honestly, I don't talk about myself in the third person.
I had no idea he was planning on doing it until he published it.
Ah ok, thanks for the info. No offence to the tweet, but I really don't get why he did that.
Sometimes Mike is busy, sometimes it is very hard to write a thread, and you just stick in a couple of tweets as that's your thread header.
Until I became guest editor, it wasn't something I really appreciated, for most of the year, Mike writes 3 threads a day. On average he writes 15-20 threads a week.
My longest stint as guest editor is just over 3 weeks, after about week 2, you're suffering from writer's block and struggling with stuff to write about.
Just imagine what Mike must feel like after doing this for 12 years plus.
Absolutely. Mike must feel like pulling his hair out ....
Mike wrote the thread, honestly, I don't talk about myself in the third person.
I had no idea he was planning on doing it until he published it.
Ah ok, thanks for the info. No offence to the tweet, but I really don't get why he did that.
Sometimes Mike is busy, sometimes it is very hard to write a thread, and you just stick in a couple of tweets as that's your thread header.
Until I became guest editor, it wasn't something I really appreciated, for most of the year, Mike writes 3 threads a day. On average he writes 15-20 threads a week.
My longest stint as guest editor is just over 3 weeks, after about week 2, you're suffering from writer's block and struggling with stuff to write about.
Just imagine what Mike must feel like after doing this for 12 years plus.
Absolutely. Mike must feel like pulling his hair out ....
Mike wrote the thread, honestly, I don't talk about myself in the third person.
I had no idea he was planning on doing it until he published it.
Ah ok, thanks for the info. No offence to the tweet, but I really don't get why he did that.
Sometimes Mike is busy, sometimes it is very hard to write a thread, and you just stick in a couple of tweets as that's your thread header.
Until I became guest editor, it wasn't something I really appreciated, for most of the year, Mike writes 3 threads a day. On average he writes 15-20 threads a week.
My longest stint as guest editor is just over 3 weeks, after about week 2, you're suffering from writer's block and struggling with stuff to write about.
Just imagine what Mike must feel like after doing this for 12 years plus.
To say nothing of what his wife feels like...
I have no idea what Mrs OGH feels like and it's a wicked idea to suggest other PBers have put the squeeze on her either !!
Lord King 'economic threat of Brexit is being exaggerated'
'I'm old enough to remember the referendum in Britain in 1975 on exactly the same issue. The one thing that both sides of the argument then were wrong about was that it would make a dramatic difference. It didn't.'
I honestly believe there'll be a couple of months turbulence if we Leave, and then things will get back to normal very quickly. (Though I am amused that the Tories are implicitly talking down their much-vaunted "economic competence", since they're now saying all the British economy's strength is down to the EU rather than anything the govt is doing).
Not every thread on PB has to be candidate for the Nobel Prize for Literature.
And if the worse for our considerable entry fee that we have to worry about is one thread leader reference to rumpy pumpy then clearly we'd should all be rushing down to Trading Standards and asking about a refund.
Indeed, but there is the option to simply let the previous thread run on, or (as encouragingly seems to be happening more) have some of the longer standing members submit threads for publication.
Lord King 'economic threat of Brexit is being exaggerated'
'I'm old enough to remember the referendum in Britain in 1975 on exactly the same issue. The one thing that both sides of the argument then were wrong about was that it would make a dramatic difference. It didn't.'
I honestly believe there'll be a couple of months turbulence if we Leave, and then things will get back to normal very quickly. (Though I am amused that the Tories are implicitly talking down their much-vaunted "economic competence", since they're now saying all the British economy's strength is down to the EU rather than anything the govt is doing).
Quite. Perhaps there should be a 'direct rule by EU' option on the ballot paper, if we are so helpless.
If the islands are strategically located (which it sounds like they may be) and/or have resources, that could explain it, as per China's militaristic expansion into the South China Sea.
Mr. 1983, could you give us a quick summary of the Kurile Islands situation?
In my opinion it's a simple case of victor's justice. Japan claims the southernmost two islands, in accordance with an 1855 treaty (I had to look this up), Russia had the rest, but Russia grabbed them in the war and have simply deported all the Japanese back to mainland Japan. The Russians have no legal claim that I can see. They have offered to give back the closest two Islands to Japan, which is about 7% of what the Japanese claim. Land-grabbing in this fashion when you're the biggest country in the world seems pointless.
Fishing or oil rights? Usually why people want pointless little islands. See Rockall.
Not every thread on PB has to be candidate for the Nobel Prize for Literature.
And if the worse for our considerable entry fee that we have to worry about is one thread leader reference to rumpy pumpy then clearly we'd should all be rushing down to Trading Standards and asking about a refund.
Indeed, but there is the option to simply let the previous thread run on, or (as encouragingly seems to be happening more) have some of the longer standing members submit threads for publication.
Mike normally only uses continuation threads during periods of vast traffic at election time and when @MikeK issues his UKIP MP forecast ....
Mr Meeks article at the top sites two examples of LEAVE attacking people for REMAIN. Both Redwood and Farage are not on the main group of LEAVE. Therefore it cannot be said that the official campaign is personalisIng this.
Lord King 'economic threat of Brexit is being exaggerated'
'I'm old enough to remember the referendum in Britain in 1975 on exactly the same issue. The one thing that both sides of the argument then were wrong about was that it would make a dramatic difference. It didn't.'
I honestly believe there'll be a couple of months turbulence if we Leave, and then things will get back to normal very quickly. (Though I am amused that the Tories are implicitly talking down their much-vaunted "economic competence", since they're now saying all the British economy's strength is down to the EU rather than anything the govt is doing).
Quite. It does give rise to the question 'What is the point of the Tories', if economic success is nothing to do with them, guv.
And I'm sure Labour scavengers such as McBride are making a careful note of everything too, for later reference.
Well, I shall be motoring down the Mediterranean coast of Italy on my way to the delights of Naples and the Amalfi coast at the time of the referendum.
For the first time in my life I will get a postal vote.
It will be interesting viewing the result from outside the UK.
The Amalfi coast is one of my all time favourite places.
Off to Lake Garda in June, never been so looking forward to that.
Mr. 1983, could you give us a quick summary of the Kurile Islands situation?
In my opinion it's a simple case of victor's justice. Japan claims the southernmost two islands, in accordance with an 1855 treaty (I had to look this up), Russia had the rest, but Russia grabbed them in the war and have simply deported all the Japanese back to mainland Japan. The Russians have no legal claim that I can see. They have offered to give back the closest two Islands to Japan, which is about 7% of what the Japanese claim. Land-grabbing in this fashion when you're the biggest country in the world seems pointless.
Fishing or oil rights? Usually why people want pointless little islands. See Rockall.
Yes, but Russia is one of the most natural resource rich countries on earth. If anything I feel their interests would be better served by trying to build bridges with Japan over it. Won't happen now of course. There is what I imagine to be a settled population, Russia are best mates with China and Japan are very much under US control.
Incidentally, on natural resources, one of the positives of being sanctioned is that the Russian economy is being forced to diversify, and therefore looks likely to return to growth fairly soon.
Lord King 'economic threat of Brexit is being exaggerated'
'I'm old enough to remember the referendum in Britain in 1975 on exactly the same issue. The one thing that both sides of the argument then were wrong about was that it would make a dramatic difference. It didn't.'
Mr Meeks article at the top sites two examples of LEAVE attacking people for REMAIN. Both Redwood and Farage are not on the main group of LEAVE. Therefore it cannot be said that the official campaign is personalisIng this.
OMG .... you mean Farage and Redwood are official LEAVE non-persons ....
Run for the hills .... the LEAVE Walking Dead are coming to get us !! ....
Lord King 'economic threat of Brexit is being exaggerated'
'I'm old enough to remember the referendum in Britain in 1975 on exactly the same issue. The one thing that both sides of the argument then were wrong about was that it would make a dramatic difference. It didn't.'
Mr. 1983, could you give us a quick summary of the Kurile Islands situation?
In my opinion it's a simple case of victor's justice. Japan claims the southernmost two islands, in accordance with an 1855 treaty (I had to look this up), Russia had the rest, but Russia grabbed them in the war and have simply deported all the Japanese back to mainland Japan. The Russians have no legal claim that I can see. They have offered to give back the closest two Islands to Japan, which is about 7% of what the Japanese claim. Land-grabbing in this fashion when you're the biggest country in the world seems pointless.
Fishing or oil rights? Usually why people want pointless little islands. See Rockall.
Yes, but Russia is one of the most natural resource rich countries on earth. If anything I feel their interests would be better served by trying to build bridges with Japan over it. Won't happen now of course. There is what I imagine to be a settled population, Russia are best mates with China and Japan are very much under US control.
Incidentally, on natural resources, one of the positives of being sanctioned is that the Russian economy is being forced to diversify, and therefore looks likely to return to growth fairly soon.
Looks more likely to collapse to me. The OPEC meeting was a yawn for the west but very bad news for the biggest oil producer in the world. If oil stays near its current prices and Russian output starts to drop off the position will be unsustainable.
Mr. 1983, could you give us a quick summary of the Kurile Islands situation?
In my opinion it's a simple case of victor's justice. Japan claims the southernmost two islands, in accordance with an 1855 treaty (I had to look this up), Russia had the rest, but Russia grabbed them in the war and have simply deported all the Japanese back to mainland Japan. The Russians have no legal claim that I can see. They have offered to give back the closest two Islands to Japan, which is about 7% of what the Japanese claim. Land-grabbing in this fashion when you're the biggest country in the world seems pointless.
Of course it's victor's justice.
Japan gave up its own claim to the Kuriles when it signed the Treaty of San Francisco in 1951. That treaty wasn't signed by the USSR, but that's not the point, because it was signed by Japan. By the time of the Japanese-Soviet Declaration of 1956, which ended the state of war between the two countries while not amounting to a peace treaty, Japan was arguing the toss over how to define "Kuriles", claiming that some of the annexed islands weren't in the Kuriles. Meanwhile the USSR didn't just offer to give back the Habomai and the Shikotan Islands; they said they would, once there was a peace treaty. In the late 1980s and the 1990s Japan maybe had a chance to buy not just the Kuriles but also Kamchatka and perhaps even part of Siberia, but while they may get back a few smaller islands - depending for example on what happens with the price of oil - the train has left the station, I think, in respect of most of the territory they lost to the USSR in 1945. They might as well decide to reverse the renunciation of their claims to Sakhalin or Manchuria.
Cameron really is a busted flush now. He will probably win his vote but will forever be regarded as effectively a traitor by somewhere near half the country. See Blair/Iraq for howsuch profound disapproval neednot fade. This reflects not his position, that in is better than out. That can be legitimately argued. It is the deliberate deception,and his dishonourable conduct in looking to rig the scales that have done for his reputation inmy view
Agree 100%. Feeling extremely bitter not about his campaign, but the way he has conducted it.
Yes, conducting it in a political manner in order to win was totally unexpected and beyond the pale.
Personally I think Leavers, particularly Tory Leavers, should hold off the traitor talk until after the referendum. Leave has the most compelling arguments, the best drive, and the status quo has less firmness to it than the IndyRef. Calling out Cameron for misleading or unfair stuff is fine if people feel that, but it is standard political behaviour, and focusing too much on how he's 'rigging' things and 'betraying' things risks looking like Leave think they'll lose and are getting excuses in or focusing more on the man than the arguments (when they can do both).
And though the piece is more about ad hominem from one side not the other, when it certainly happens the other direction as well, I mostly stand by it.
Lord King 'economic threat of Brexit is being exaggerated'
'I'm old enough to remember the referendum in Britain in 1975 on exactly the same issue. The one thing that both sides of the argument then were wrong about was that it would make a dramatic difference. It didn't.'
Lord King 'economic threat of Brexit is being exaggerated'
'I'm old enough to remember the referendum in Britain in 1975 on exactly the same issue. The one thing that both sides of the argument then were wrong about was that it would make a dramatic difference. It didn't.'
Mr. 1983, could you give us a quick summary of the Kurile Islands situation?
In my opinion it's a simple case of victor's justice. Japan claims the southernmost two islands, in accordance with an 1855 treaty (I had to look this up), Russia had the rest, but Russia grabbed them in the war and have simply deported all the Japanese back to mainland Japan. The Russians have no legal claim that I can see. They have offered to give back the closest two Islands to Japan, which is about 7% of what the Japanese claim. Land-grabbing in this fashion when you're the biggest country in the world seems pointless.
Fishing or oil rights? Usually why people want pointless little islands. See Rockall.
Yes, but Russia is one of the most natural resource rich countries on earth. If anything I feel their interests would be better served by trying to build bridges with Japan over it. Won't happen now of course. There is what I imagine to be a settled population, Russia are best mates with China and Japan are very much under US control.
Incidentally, on natural resources, one of the positives of being sanctioned is that the Russian economy is being forced to diversify, and therefore looks likely to return to growth fairly soon.
Looks more likely to collapse to me. The OPEC meeting was a yawn for the west but very bad news for the biggest oil producer in the world. If oil stays near its current prices and Russian output starts to drop off the position will be unsustainable.
There's undoubtedly propaganda on both sides. There was a 3.7 GDP contraction in 2015, and they are predicting a 0.3 contraction in 2016. If true, it would appear to indicate a return to growth in 2017. Of course sanctions wound, but markets adjust, people adjust, and if something is artificially undervalued, it will find its real value one way or another. This is as true and pertinent to the Brexit argument as it is to anything else.
Lord King 'economic threat of Brexit is being exaggerated'
'I'm old enough to remember the referendum in Britain in 1975 on exactly the same issue. The one thing that both sides of the argument then were wrong about was that it would make a dramatic difference. It didn't.'
Comments
Tykejohnno = Bill Shankly
"No, it's cumbersome because it's cumbersome, involving a disparate group of countries each with their own agendas and domestic political issues, as well the EU bureaucracy and the European Parliament."
And you want to remain part of this organisation?
Like the UK
I would have been most upset if you had compared me to Lord Halifax.
And (if I may repeat myself) his criticisms of the economics of the Treasury report are very good ones. It is being slowly revealed as the shoddy piece of propaganda it is.
Leave: Poch
Getting a n outright majority would boost Trump's return here considerably.
One to watch.
Just sayin'...
You want to be long in US dollar or Swiss franc denominated assets, I think.
It will tell us those who will always put their fears for the economy first, despite anything they might say about immigration or sovereignty otherwise, and how many don't care about the EU, or actually like it.
It will tell us who will actually go out and vote on regulations, laws, migration, and democracy.
It might also tell us what would be finally required to swing it, if Leave don't win.
Personally, I stick to a prima facie case that we'd immediately be better off exiting and the EU deliberately hitting the Uk and voters directly in their pockets, a Tory PM who is a Leaver, a pre-negotiated deal on the table and a recommendation to ratify it in a referendum for immediate implementation.
Which I suspect would be won 70%+. If Leave get to 10% or less with all their disadvantages this time, that's actually quite good,
they at least had a modicum of belief in this country.
FDR for being the most duplicitous bastard to be President, officially being neutral at the start of World War II, but doing everything he could to help the UK. Plus his Germany first policy was a key moment of WW2.
Truman for desegrating the army, having the balls to drop the bombs, and after leaving office, not accepting any offers as he thought it would demean the office of President.
I shall demand satisfaction from any man or woman who says otherwise.
which sort of puts name calling in perspective.
I had no idea he was planning on doing it until he published it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doublethink
Remember, as per Yalta Agreement, Stalin had to attack Japan three months after VE Day.
Which are, after all, only your "personal view".
'I'm old enough to remember the referendum in Britain in 1975 on exactly the same issue. The one thing that both sides of the argument then were wrong about was that it would make a dramatic difference. It didn't.'
Correct.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/20/economic-threat-of-brexit-is-being-exaggerated-says-former-bank/
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/foods-counter-sues-tex-pastor-cake-gay-slur-suit-article-1.2607711
Clearly Texan pastors aren't like our CoE vicars down in deepest Sussex.
Until I became guest editor, it wasn't something I really appreciated, for most of the year, Mike writes 3 threads a day. On average he writes 15-20 threads a week.
My longest stint as guest editor is just over 3 weeks, after about week 2, you're suffering from writer's block and struggling with stuff to write about.
Just imagine what Mike must feel like after doing this for 12 years plus.
Stalin was *such* a duplicitous bastard he manipulated the whole West through FDR. Even Churchill saw it but FDR never suspected anything, wouldn't listen to Churchill, and genuinely thought he had Stalin eating out of his palm.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/19/review-the-security-of-our-borders-to-keep-britain-safe-say-form/ Genuine WTF moment when we are a major provider and sharer in the world's premium intelligence network and the rest of Europe... isnt.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Eyes
I wonder what 55-60 is.
Would a baker in their right mind in the US ice "Love wins Fag" onto a cake in the US ?!
Occam's razor says he's iced it himself, or had someone else do it "after the fact". I hope the bakery countersuit ruins him.
For the first time in my life I will get a postal vote.
It will be interesting viewing the result from outside the UK.
And if the worse for our considerable entry fee that we have to worry about is one thread leader reference to rumpy pumpy then clearly we'd should all be rushing down to Trading Standards and asking about a refund.
I honestly believe there'll be a couple of months turbulence if we Leave, and then things will get back to normal very quickly. (Though I am amused that the Tories are implicitly talking down their much-vaunted "economic competence", since they're now saying all the British economy's strength is down to the EU rather than anything the govt is doing).
H itler
R oosevelt
I l Duce
S talin
T ojo
An easy way to remember WW2 Leaders/ Most influential parties.
If the islands are strategically located (which it sounds like they may be) and/or have resources, that could explain it, as per China's militaristic expansion into the South China Sea.
And I'm sure Labour scavengers such as McBride are making a careful note of everything too, for later reference.
His way is 'I like and trust David Cameron, and want him to be PM for as long he wishes. I just don't trust the EU, that's why I'm voting Leave'
Off to Lake Garda in June, never been so looking forward to that.
Incidentally, on natural resources, one of the positives of being sanctioned is that the Russian economy is being forced to diversify, and therefore looks likely to return to growth fairly soon.
Funny the Remainers are quiet about it.
Run for the hills .... the LEAVE Walking Dead are coming to get us !! ....
Japan gave up its own claim to the Kuriles when it signed the Treaty of San Francisco in 1951.
That treaty wasn't signed by the USSR, but that's not the point, because it was signed by Japan. By the time of the Japanese-Soviet Declaration of 1956, which ended the state of war between the two countries while not amounting to a peace treaty, Japan was arguing the toss over how to define "Kuriles", claiming that some of the annexed islands weren't in the Kuriles. Meanwhile the USSR didn't just offer to give back the Habomai and the Shikotan Islands; they said they would, once there was a peace treaty. In the late 1980s and the 1990s Japan maybe had a chance to buy not just the Kuriles but also Kamchatka and perhaps even part of Siberia, but while they may get back a few smaller islands - depending for example on what happens with the price of oil - the train has left the station, I think, in respect of most of the territory they lost to the USSR in 1945. They might as well decide to reverse the renunciation of their claims to Sakhalin or Manchuria.
Clinton 52 .. Sanders 39
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/143fe2e7-7497-44ed-8aef-c93505a1fa96.pdf
After N.Y. I have Trump ranging from 1194 to 1274 delegates in the end.
The 8 key races to look at:
April 26th
Connecticut, will Trump get more that 50% to trigger WTA ?
Maryland, will Trump win all CD's to get all delegates ?
May 3rd
Indiana, will Trump win the state or at least most CD's ?
May 10th
W.Virginia, will Trump manage to overcome the extremely complex rules to get at least 20 delegates ?
May 24th
Washington, will Trump win the state or at least most CD's ?
June 7th
California, will Trump succeed in turning his almost 20 point lead into a landslide with delegates ?
Montana, will Trump win the state ?
Bonus.
Will Trump get any of the Pennsylvania unpledged delegates ?
Trump can afford to underperform or lose or get zero delegates in 3 out of those 8 and still be above 1237.
And Tebbit/Thatcher/Lawson/Owen were all europhiles back then.
How is the weather in Moscow this evening?