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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why playing the man and not the issue might not be a good strategy for LEAVE
Brexiteers have shown themselves to be very angry about many things. These things include, but are not confined to, the conduct of the referendum campaign itself. Their complaints are many and various but three in particular stand out:
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Europhile Propaganda"Robust analysis" thread!I think many people who will vote Leave will do so in spite of the Leave campaign not because of it. I also think that it will put off as many people as it might attract.
Therefore it is perfectly reasonable for Leave to challenge and show doubts about that "authority".
This really is a global conspiracy innit.
Indeed: and no reason for us to continue importing the troubles by permitting more such immigration.
Which is a lot more than can be said for the Remain campaign.
I still think they need to work on a Hope narrative though.
All you Leavers are doing is awaken the sleeping giant that are Remainers and fill them with a terrible resolve
Surely it is reasonable to point out that those who say leaving the EU will return us to some dark age said the same about failure to join the Euro? Surely it is reasonable to point out that the track of the EU has since its formation been towards ever more Europe and those that argue remain is the status quo have to face up to the fact that assurances given in the past have proven to be worthless? Surely it is reasonable, as Cameron himself somewhat indirectly confirmed at PMQs today, to point out that the assumptions behind the Treasury assessment were highly partial, contentious and made wholly negative assumptions about Leave?
This is politics and I for one bear no grudges. I found Clarke's comments today amusing, I do not regard Cameron or Osborne as dishonest, merely as politicians trying to make a case that I happen to disagree with. Clearly some go further but this is straw man stuff Alastair. It really is.
As Philip Johnstone notes in the Telegraph, the earth has been quite dramatically scorched by Remain 'conservatives' in their complete desperation to win. Its quite gut-wrenching to watch
You talk abut shrill tones, but I was talking to my sister yesterday evening, and she is about as non-political as they get. Asked me about the Brexit vote and why there was so much "scaremongering" from the remain side. She's fairly representative of the kind of voter Remain needs to attract (young, female, professional) and her opinion was that everything was so over the top that the attacks have lost credibility. She can't understand how it would be possible for the same people running the same country to say on the one hand, we are the strongest economy in the developed world but then on the other say that if we vote to leave we will be among the weakest. I basically stayed silent because I didn't want to prejudice her opinion, which IMO, was quite telling. She also said that the remain side had pointed out all the downsides to leaving, but no upsides to staying. She's had no contact from Leave so far which is pretty lamentable.
TSE: What have I done?!
Darth Gideon (aka. Chancellor Osborne): You are fulfilling your destiny, TSE. Become my apprentice. Learn to use the Daft Side of the Force. There's no turning back now.
TSE: I will do whatever you ask. Just help me save Theresa's political career. I can't live without her. If she resigns, I don't know what I will do.
Darth Gideon: To cheat political obscurity is a power only one has achieved through centuries of the study of the Force. But if we work together, I know we can discover the secret to eternal AV Threads.
TSE: I pledge myself to your teachings. To the ways of the REMAINERs.
Darth Gideon: Good. Good! The Force is strong with you, TSE. A powerful REMAINER you will become. Henceforth, you shall be known as Darth... Eagles.
TSE: Thank you... my Master.
Darth Gideon: Lord Eagles... rise.
Sir Lynton also agrees.
Have you had a bet yet, should be fun when you do.....
We can either tug our forelocks and do as they say, or stick two fingers up and vote Leave.
A victory for Leave will be a victory for the common man & woman.
How about one re Wales or Scotland or Northern Ireland...
It is true that a lot of the people who said that disaster would happen if we didn't join the euro are saying the same thing now about Brexit. It is quite possible - even likely - that they are wrong now as they were then. It is also possible that, even though wrong then, they may be right now.
Merely pointing out their wrongness then doesn't really deal - substantively - with whether they are wrong now. Isn't that the point Mr M is making?
TSE - February 2016 - "awful deal - firming up"
TSE - 2 weeks ago "my heart says Leave"
TSE - last weekend "you pb'ers have convinced me to campaign for Remain - thanks"
TSE - today "eurosceptic loons", "us Remainers"
btw David did you see my second post to you yesterday about passporting and financial services? Interested in your further thoughts (re-posted below).
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David - thanks. But what a lot of gaps in the picture there are, no?
I don't have a precise figure for question 1 either, though have been asking around.
UK financial services exports to the EU most certainly did not start in 1999 or 2000 and indeed were quite significant before that. So how great is the downside risk, really?
Similarly, the big US (and many European) banks came here before the passporting regime as well. I know they say they like it, but that clearly wasn't the original motivation in arriving.
I enclose FYI a report I have seen by PWC which produces rather small estimates of the long-term impact of Brexit on UK financial services GDP, which are moreover somewhat bulked out by questionable assumptions re, immigration and 'uncertainty'. The impacts are of the scale 2-4% by 2030 (depending on the post-Brexit trade regime) of which trade effects only are 0.6-2%. These translate into really small effects on broader UK GDP.
They go on to caveat these results with some hand waving about relocation risks but without anything to back it up really (given who the client was, I imagine there was a bit of to-ing and fro-ing on the drafting based on 'why can't we make the numbers bigger/stress more downside risks' etc.)
https://www.pwc.co.uk/financial-services/assets/Leaving-the-EU-implications-for-the-UK-FS-sector.pdf
Whatever the reason behind it, the approach is counter-productive. We now have a daily ritual playing out: some very distinguished figure or respected institution pops up to say that Brexit is risky or damaging economically, the Leave campaign pop up to rubbish (and in many cases insult) said distinguished figure or respected institution, thereby giving the comments extra publicity and making the Leave side sound a bit unhinged.
What do you think the cumulative effect of that is? I can tell you: it is to make persuadable voters think that leaving might be a bit too risky.
For this reason, I think the value now is probably in the Remain 60%-65% band at a stonking 7/1, and I've just bet accordingly. This is the first bet I've placed in the referendum, other than an old bet with Richard Tyndall.
so rising unemployment is the result of Brexit ?
shit Chancellor methinks.
The same might be said, of course, about those who were so confident that the Euro would have ceased to exist by now, that Greece were going to get thrown out of it and possibly the EU as well. That would be equally valid.
For now, it's all hands to the pump AFAIC.
Though, since HMG has spent weeks telling the world that the UK is too weak and feeble to go it alone, he might have a point.
So we get Stephen Crabb blaming blexit for the rise of unemployment,wonder what Priti has to say about this.
EU referendum: Tories go to war after minister blames unemployment rise on Brexit fears as Jeremy Corbyn savages PM over academies plan
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/20/eu-referendum-us-treasury-secretaries-brexit-pmqs-live/
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
It is this kind of shenanigens that really gets my goat. The endless one way slice by slice movement by whatever means to get to a destination that nobody seems to want to spell out aside from a few Continentals who openly want a "USE".
I am actually a reluctant if firm Leaver as I have lost all hope of any reform worthy of the name and pressing the "nuclear" button of actually leaving seems the only way to get the barstewards to listen to me, and actually have that root and branch conversation that Cameron so utterly flunked. Robinson's programme really was like Groundhog Day 1975/Wilson v 2016/Cameron in terms of perfunctory renegotiations for the sake of party management.
I'd really honestly have more time for Juncker/Schulz and any of their sincere UK supporters if they actually spelled out what their ideal Europe looks like. At least it'd be honest rather than the constant under the radar skulduggery that appears to have been in the ascendancy for decades.
In the past its been a mix of IDS or Patel doing the unemployment interviews, so no big conspiracy that Crabb was doing them today.
If Remain nudge into the lead the problem is a lot of ambitious politicians on Leave are going to start looking over their shoulder at Camborne and considering their position after the referendum, they might consider it better to be accommodating in exchange for not being sent to Northern Ireland, while Leave is level pegging they will feel braver. My guess is as soon as it starts to really slip there will be fightback except from a few diehards and lots of quiet deals being struck.
What's the next ratchet notch to come out of Brussels?
I am conscious of the atmosphere in Edinburgh at the time of the Sindy ref. There is no doubt at all that much, probably most of the Scottish financial services industry would have left by now had the vote gone the other way (in fact some of it has even with a No vote, just rather more quietly). London is vastly stronger than Edinburgh as a financial centre but it still seems realistic to me to assume that being out of something which is such a great opportunity for it would hurt.
With the Single market and passport I can see London going after insurance, fund management, capital raising and debt trading across the continent in an aggressive way and continuing to grow strongly. Without it London won't die but an opportunity will have been spurned.
Rubbishing your own achievements to make a cheap political point. Embarrassing.
Don't be surprised if I reply in kind.
You yourself talked about destroying the Tory Party to win.
That's what actually convinced me in part to go campaigning for Remain.
I know what happened the last time the Tory Party became obsessed with The EU
I'll get my coat
FFS. We get it. There is no strategy that the self-appointed experts can ever conceive of winning it for LEAVE.
Other than REMAIN giving no rational, fact-based reason for voting for their position either.
This Referendum is turning into a horribly unedifying public spectacle. Whoever wins, forty-odd percent of those who could be arsed to vote is still going to think they have been sold an unemptied septic tank by the winners. And then there will be those on the winning side who in short order will be suffering voters remorse....
That is clearly indicated by what has happened in the past few days. Osborne said the average family will lose lots of money if Britain leaves the EU, and in response there's a huge amount of activity at Betfair, pushing the implied probability of LEAVE up from 33% (where it was stuck for ages) to 37%. (Look at the bars on Michael Dent's chart to get an impression of the flow of money being staked.) The rush of investment in LEAVE wasn't in response to Gove; it was in response to Osborne.
REMAIN are faced with a dilemma. Go big in the media and they get hurt. Keep quiet in the media and they won't demotivate many intending LEAVE voters, who are more motivated than intending REMAIN voters.
It's clear that in the Commons a night of the long knives is coming. The question is who may fall before the referendum. The Tories and REMAIN will both be in terrible trouble between the locals and the referendum. Maybe a Scottish story can be used to distract?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-36089471
Whatever happened to the claim that cuts would mean an end to blue plaques?
< pedant > http://afterdeadline.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/25/begging-the-question-again/ < / pedant >
Bad for politicians! (Surely, the extra opportunities from being a Commisionar, plus the boondoggles for MEPs, make politicians the major benificiaries of the EU)
It's bollocks.
Trouble is, that probably won't work. Wasn't there a poster showing Gove, Johnson, Galloway, Farage and someone else, with the slogan "Five reasons to stay in the EU"? You can't fool all the people all of the time. People realise that with the exception of Johnson, a vote for LEAVE isn't going to help the political chances of any of those people. And while Cameron remains in office, I can't imagine that the REMAIN campaign, in which he's playing a far more hands-on role than Harold Wilson did, pillorying Johnson as an arrogant posh Old Etonian berk, somehow.
It's looking very difficult for REMAIN. Which is probably why a lot of betting money has been rushing to buy LEAVE. Basically LEAVE has clonked from 33% to 37%, in response to what's been in the media about the EU issue in the past few days, principally Osborne and Gove. Three more clonks like that and LEAVE will be the "bookies' favourite". The local elections will be a clonk, probably at least a clonk and a half. It's almost all over.
Am I missing something?
Which must be why the Tories employed them to such great effect with the Crosby guided ones on Miliband during the GE. Has Meeks forgotten the posters of hapless Ed in Eck's shirt pocket already? And the oft reprinted bacon sandwich photos.
Ignore me.
I still think the whole chart is bizarre.
I am conscious of the atmosphere in Edinburgh at the time of the Sindy ref. There is no doubt at all that much, probably most of the Scottish financial services industry would have left by now had the vote gone the other way (in fact some of it has even with a No vote, just rather more quietly). London is vastly stronger than Edinburgh as a financial centre but it still seems realistic to me to assume that being out of something which is such a great opportunity for it would hurt.
With the Single market and passport I can see London going after insurance, fund management, capital raising and debt trading across the continent in an aggressive way and continuing to grow strongly. Without it London won't die but an opportunity will have been spurned.
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David - what interested me most about the report was that the estimated trade-only effects were really quite small and PWC seemed to be suggesting that passporting was not necessarily such a big deal or that there were alternatives to it (current or forthcoming).
As noted above there are various add-ons to the basic 'impact' numbers there as well, which are of questionable provenance and obviously provide scope for the report to be spun in different ways.
One of "Leave"'s biggest problem is that the character assassinations so far just haven't been all that good or memorable. Osborne in particular is low hanging fruit here.
Like it or not, the main perceived issue is immigration. I don't care what people are telling pollsters, or what graphs pollsters are drawing to show the distribution of answers they get to whatever silly questions they've asked.