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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Vote Leave sets out its objective – TSE gives his robust interpretation

Vote Leave spokesmen confirm stance: free trade with no free movement, no budget contributions and no supremacy of EU law.

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Luckyguy1983

This is a thread?

TCPoliticalBetting

Luckyguy1983 said:

This is a thread?

This is an impartial assessment?

CarlottaVance

He forgot "and he hopes she dies soon"........a VoteLeave spokesman has been quoted as saying he hopes BREXIT leads to dissolution of the EU....

Luckyguy1983

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

This is a thread?

This is an impartial assessment?

I don't expect impartiality, but I do expect a little content. It's like some paralell distopian universe where Scott P runs PB.

AlastairMeeks

FPT for @Casino_Royale, this was another journalist's version:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/722388871338659840

Scott_P

@AndrewSparrow: Gove implies he would like Brexit to lead to collapse of entire EU - https://t.co/5mPKHJ7kRm

rcs1000

Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.

MarkHopkins

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

This is a thread?

This is an impartial assessment?

This is a response?

:-)

edmundintokyo

FPT

David_Evershed said:

edmundintokyo said:

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@megalomaniacs4u Britain's recent immigrants are twice as likely as the native-born to have completed education aged 21 or over. The idea that Britain is getting low grade immigrants is simply untrue.

The net quality of each immigrant should be even higher if we were outside the EU.

Out of interest is there some kind of published standard or something so I can find out what grade of immigrant I am?

Use the Australian points system as a surrogate until there is a UK points system after a BREXIT.

Thanks, I tried this calculator:
http://www.migrationmatters.com/australiapoints.php
...and despite self-assessing my English as "superior" I got only 50 out of a required passing grade of 65, so I guess I'm a medium-to-low-grade immigrant.

MarkHopkins

Disagree TSE. It's like a man expecting to be able to go out with other women after the divorce, and for his ex-wife to be civil when they go to the childrens' events.

Luckyguy1983

For the avoidance of doubt, here's the passage:

'For Europe, Britain voting to leave will be the beginning of something potentially even more exciting - the democratic liberation of a whole Continent.

If we vote to leave we will have - in the words of a former British Prime Minister - saved our country by our exertions and Europe by our example.'

I don't see anything about the collapse of the EU there, does anyone else?

Casino_Royale

Ah, this is what Gove actually said:

"For Europe, Britain voting to leave will be the beginning of something potentially even more exciting - the democratic liberation of a whole Continent.

If we vote to leave we will have - in the words of a former British Prime Minister - saved our country by our exertions and Europe by our example."

Very different to the spin.

rcs1000

edmundintokyo said:

FPT

David_Evershed said:

edmundintokyo said:

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@megalomaniacs4u Britain's recent immigrants are twice as likely as the native-born to have completed education aged 21 or over. The idea that Britain is getting low grade immigrants is simply untrue.

The net quality of each immigrant should be even higher if we were outside the EU.

Out of interest is there some kind of published standard or something so I can find out what grade of immigrant I am?

Use the Australian points system as a surrogate until there is a UK points system after a BREXIT.

Thanks, I tried this calculator:
http://www.migrationmatters.com/australiapoints.php
...and despite self-assessing my English as "superior" I got only 50 out of a required passing grade of 65, so I guess I'm a medium-to-low-grade immigrant.

It's also worth remembering that - from an economics perspective - tariffs are much less distorting than quotas.

TheScreamingEagles

rcs1000 said:

Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.

As I thought, will it push you to back Remain?

edmundintokyo

This is obviously self-contradictory. You don't have free trade if people aren't allowed to move around.

Danny565

As I said in the last thread, it was the inevitable move if "Leave" wanted to have a chance of winning the Referendum.

If they were offering a post-Brexit deal which involved keeping freedom of movement, they would essentially be asking people to take on all the risks of change, without even the upside of sorting out one of the biggest problems (as the public sees it).

Innocent_Abroad

MarkHopkins said:

Disagree TSE. It's like a man expecting to be able to go out with other women after the divorce, and for his ex-wife to be civil when they go to the childrens' events.

John Whittingthingummy?

rcs1000

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.

As I thought, will it push you to back Remain?

This isn't Norway. This isn't even Switzerland.

I can't see how we would get access to the single European financial services passport under this plan.

TheScreamingEagles

If anyone in Remain uses my analogy, I'm demanding royalties.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/722404730052460545

Layne

Europhiles once again showing their ignorance. The position articulated by VoteLeave is already achieved by several countries, not least Canada. It is simply an anti-British mindset that we, an economy twice the size, could achieve the same.

Sandpit

MarkHopkins said:

Disagree TSE. It's like a man expecting to be able to go out with other women after the divorce, and for his ex-wife to be civil when they go to the childrens' events.

Quite. If the EU is going to be so hugely vindictive if we leave, then why are we members in the first place?

edmundintokyo

Danny565 said:

As I said in the last thread, it was the inevitable move if "Leave" wanted to have a chance of winning the Referendum.

If they were offering a post-Brexit deal which involved keeping freedom of movement, they would essentially be asking people to take on all the risks of change, without even the upside of sorting out one of the biggest problems (as the public sees it).

I think it's a mistake for them to say what they want this clearly. British people want free movement, at least for themselves. What they don't want is immigrants.

CarlottaVance

rcs1000 said:

Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.

As someone who has thought carefully about this- what do you see as it's shortcomings?

Luckyguy1983

edmundintokyo said:

This is obviously self-contradictory. You don't have free trade if people aren't allowed to move around.

?? On what conceivable basis, past present or future, has free trade necessitated the free movement of peoples between parties?

Scott_P

Layne said:

Europhiles once again showing their ignorance. The position articulated by VoteLeave is already achieved by several countries, not least Canada.

That's not true.

Gove tried it on R4 this morning, and changed his mind when corrected.

Talking of ignorance...

TheScreamingEagles

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.

As I thought, will it push you to back Remain?

This isn't Norway. This isn't even Switzerland.

I can't see how we would get access to the single European financial services passport under this plan.

That's why our firm's risk analysis on Brexit concluded Brexit was bad for us.

Look on the bright side, you get to open and visit a new office in every EU country in the event of Brexit

NickPalmer

edmundintokyo said:

FPT

David_Evershed said:

edmundintokyo said:

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@megalomaniacs4u Britain's recent immigrants are twice as likely as the native-born to have completed education aged 21 or over. The idea that Britain is getting low grade immigrants is simply untrue.

The net quality of each immigrant should be even higher if we were outside the EU.

Out of interest is there some kind of published standard or something so I can find out what grade of immigrant I am?

Use the Australian points system as a surrogate until there is a UK points system after a BREXIT.

Thanks, I tried this calculator:
http://www.migrationmatters.com/australiapoints.php
...and despite self-assessing my English as "superior" I got only 50 out of a required passing grade of 65, so I guess I'm a medium-to-low-grade immigrant.

And apparently a total ban on anyone over 49?

Tykejohnno

Meeks doesn't believe that we are getting no low grade immigration from the EU - laughable.

Layne

NickPalmer said:

edmundintokyo said:

FPT

David_Evershed said:

edmundintokyo said:

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@megalomaniacs4u Britain's recent immigrants are twice as likely as the native-born to have completed education aged 21 or over. The idea that Britain is getting low grade immigrants is simply untrue.

The net quality of each immigrant should be even higher if we were outside the EU.

Out of interest is there some kind of published standard or something so I can find out what grade of immigrant I am?

Use the Australian points system as a surrogate until there is a UK points system after a BREXIT.

Thanks, I tried this calculator:
http://www.migrationmatters.com/australiapoints.php
...and despite self-assessing my English as "superior" I got only 50 out of a required passing grade of 65, so I guess I'm a medium-to-low-grade immigrant.

And apparently a total ban on anyone over 49?

That is within the skilled migrant category. Family migration can still be done over that age.

NickPalmer

There's a touch of clickbait about the theme, but it's funny and appears to be true, of Vote Leave's stance if not Gove's personal view. The basic problem is that Vote Leave is still papering over the divisions between supporters on what they actually want, because no specific alternative would be anywhere near a majority.

Pulpstar

Off topic, Detective Gonçalo Amaral has won a court case against the McCanns in Portugal.

HurstLlama

edmundintokyo said:

... You don't have free trade if people aren't allowed to move around.

Wow, so I have automatic residency rights in Japan with the same access to benefits,etc. as any Japanese citizen. I never knew that.

Alternatively, acceptable trade is possible for both sides without having to have free movement of people.

Richard_Nabavi

@Robert___Harris

"A happy journey to a better place"? Gove makes Brexit sound like a Dignitas brochure

edmundintokyo

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.

As I thought, will it push you to back Remain?

This isn't Norway. This isn't even Switzerland.

I can't see how we would get access to the single European financial services passport under this plan.

You wouldn't get that under any plan. Plenty of European voters think that London is a tax haven, and British banks are the kind of people who caused the recession. If Britain leaves the EU, all the member states would have to ratify an agreement to keep market access open. They couldn't do it even if they wanted to.

AlastairMeeks

Tykejohnno said:

Meeks doesn't believe that we are getting no low grade immigration from the EU - laughable.

Clearly there are problems with the homegrown stock as well because your reading skills are lamentable.

MarkHopkins

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.

As I thought, will it push you to back Remain?

This isn't Norway. This isn't even Switzerland.

I can't see how we would get access to the single European financial services passport under this plan.

That's why our firm's risk analysis on Brexit concluded Brexit was bad for us.

Look on the bright side, you get to open and visit a new office in every EU country in the event of Brexit

Even in a no-financial-passport scenario, you would only have to open one office in one EU country. You could trade from there across the EU.

But I presume the financial passport will be negotiated in, though.

TonyE

rcs1000 said:

edmundintokyo said:

FPT

David_Evershed said:

edmundintokyo said:

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@megalomaniacs4u Britain's recent immigrants are twice as likely as the native-born to have completed education aged 21 or over. The idea that Britain is getting low grade immigrants is simply untrue.

The net quality of each immigrant should be even higher if we were outside the EU.

Out of interest is there some kind of published standard or something so I can find out what grade of immigrant I am?

Use the Australian points system as a surrogate until there is a UK points system after a BREXIT.

Thanks, I tried this calculator:
http://www.migrationmatters.com/australiapoints.php
...and despite self-assessing my English as "superior" I got only 50 out of a required passing grade of 65, so I guess I'm a medium-to-low-grade immigrant.

It's also worth remembering that - from an economics perspective - tariffs are much less distorting than quotas.

And other non tariff barriers such as labelling rules or local specification rules are often used as nothing more than absolute protectionism. WTO has largely drained the swamp on Tariffs, but that has just exposed all the rotting supermarket trollies at the bottom.

Plato_Says

Yup, beyond my comprehension as an argument unless you've decided we're too crap to even punch our weight.

Layne said:

Europhiles once again showing their ignorance. The position articulated by VoteLeave is already achieved by several countries, not least Canada. It is simply an anti-British mindset that we, an economy twice the size, could achieve the same.

TonyE

Luckyguy1983 said:

For the avoidance of doubt, here's the passage:

'For Europe, Britain voting to leave will be the beginning of something potentially even more exciting - the democratic liberation of a whole Continent.

If we vote to leave we will have - in the words of a former British Prime Minister - saved our country by our exertions and Europe by our example.'

I don't see anything about the collapse of the EU there, does anyone else?

Seeing as the EU isn't democratic, the only way to liberate one's country from it is to leave, ergo the EU would collapse if it chose political freedom.

CarlottaVance

Casino_Royale said:

Very different to the spin.

LEAVE's spin....

david_herdson

Scott_P said:

@AndrewSparrow: Gove implies he would like Brexit to lead to collapse of entire EU - https://t.co/5mPKHJ7kRm

For someone like Gove, who is big on ideas and philosophy, he'd no doubt regard the collapse of the EU itself as a good thing, not only for Britain but also for people in other member states.

How such a desire might practically affect Britain's negotiations with those member states and the EU institutions may not be something he's much thought to.

Stark_Dawning

The most authentic Leavers I've met are the real diehards: pull up the drawbridge, scrap immigration, couldn't care less about trading with any of them. Okay, it's on the fringe, but the sheer purity of the position makes it difficult to argue with. This EFTA in, EEA out, in out in out and shake it all about stuff is crippling Leave and rendering their message a gibbering of monkeys. Someone - Farage perhaps as he's an old hand - needs to step in and restore some focus, drill in some coherence.

edmundintokyo

HurstLlama said:

edmundintokyo said:

... You don't have free trade if people aren't allowed to move around.

Wow, so I have automatic residency rights in Japan with the same access to benefits,etc. as any Japanese citizen. I never knew that.

Alternatively, acceptable trade is possible for both sides without having to have free movement of people.

Britain and Japan don't have free trade.

Norm

NickPalmer said:

There's a touch of clickbait about the theme, but it's funny and appears to be true, of Vote Leave's stance if not Gove's personal view. The basic problem is that Vote Leave is still papering over the divisions between supporters on what they actually want, because no specific alternative would be anywhere near a majority.

You can understand that. I recall the Scottish IndyRef Yes team did much the same. Awkward questions can follow the vote.

TonyE

Plato_Says said:

Yup, beyond my comprehension as an argument unless you've decided we're too crap to even punch our weight.

Layne said:

Europhiles once again showing their ignorance. The position articulated by VoteLeave is already achieved by several countries, not least Canada. It is simply an anti-British mindset that we, an economy twice the size, could achieve the same.

Actually, I don't think Canada or any of the others have really achieved the position VL is advocating. It would be a new and novel deal to have full free trade with the EU but no FOM, no Single Market Legislation and no pre existing arbitration system no based in the EEA treaty.

Scott_P

Stark_Dawning said:

Someone - Farage perhaps as he's an old hand - needs to step in and restore some focus, drill in some coherence.

It is Farage's team that have been tweeting their "displeasure" at Gove's Article 50 nonsense.

Indigo

Tykejohnno said:

Meeks doesn't believe that we are getting no low grade immigration from the EU - laughable.

No, he just like getting his lawn cut and his car cleaned cheaply

Stark_Dawning

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

@AndrewSparrow: Gove implies he would like Brexit to lead to collapse of entire EU - https://t.co/5mPKHJ7kRm

For someone like Gove, who is big on ideas and philosophy, he'd no doubt regard the collapse of the EU itself as a good thing, not only for Britain but also for people in other member states.

How such a desire might practically affect Britain's negotiations with those member states and the EU institutions may not be something he's much thought to.

Yes. And to think Gove was being massively touted as Dave's negotiator-in-Chief in the event of Brexit. That's got to be off the table now.

watford30

Luckyguy1983 said:

This is a thread?

This must be the worst thread header ever published here.

Scott_P

TonyE said:

Actually, I don't think Canada or any of the others have really achieved the position VL is advocating.

Nobody has ever achieved what they are proposing. Except in Fairy tales.

TheScreamingEagles

MarkHopkins said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.

As I thought, will it push you to back Remain?

This isn't Norway. This isn't even Switzerland.

I can't see how we would get access to the single European financial services passport under this plan.

That's why our firm's risk analysis on Brexit concluded Brexit was bad for us.

Look on the bright side, you get to open and visit a new office in every EU country in the event of Brexit

Even in a no-financial-passport scenario, you would only have to open one office in one EU country. You could trade from there across the EU.

But I presume the financial passport will be negotiated in, though.

It was more based on Dominic Cummings' view/hopes

GeoffM

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

@AndrewSparrow: Gove implies he would like Brexit to lead to collapse of entire EU - https://t.co/5mPKHJ7kRm

For someone like Gove, who is big on ideas and philosophy, he'd no doubt regard the collapse of the EU itself as a good thing, not only for Britain but also for people in other member states.

How such a desire might practically affect Britain's negotiations with those member states and the EU institutions may not be something he's much thought to.

Very much my point of view too - I see it as a liberating exercise across the whole of the continent. History will view it as such.

The death throes of the EU elites shouldn't bother us too much. Regimes will be replaced by others. Life will go on, and in an increasingly positive way.

Layne

I see from Facebook that the Remain campaign is going big on the £4,300 figure. This is a lie and has been called out as such by everyone from the Sun to the BBC. Only an economic illiterate like George Osborne would confuse GDP and household income. Only a disreputable charlatan would divide a 2030 number by the number of 2015 households. Only a fearmongerer would paint a difference between two levels of growth as a loss.

If the UK is cowered to vote to remain, it will be on this central lie, and after billions of British taxes have stacked the referendum. It will be a completely illegitimate result.

Casino_Royale

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/722404730052460545

Wow. That's inspiring.

TheScreamingEagles

Layne said:

I see from Facebook that the Remain campaign is going big on the £4,300 figure. This is a lie and has been called out as such by everyone from the Sun to the BBC. Only an economic illiterate like George Osborne would confuse GDP and household income. Only a disreputable charlatan would divide a 2030 number by the number of 2015 households. Only a fearmongerer would paint a difference between two levels of growth as a loss.

If the UK is cowered to vote to remain, it will be on this central lie, and after billions of British taxes have stacked the referendum. It will be a completely illegitimate result.

What are these billions of British taxes you speak of?

Plato_Says

GeoffM said:

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

@AndrewSparrow: Gove implies he would like Brexit to lead to collapse of entire EU - https://t.co/5mPKHJ7kRm

For someone like Gove, who is big on ideas and philosophy, he'd no doubt regard the collapse of the EU itself as a good thing, not only for Britain but also for people in other member states.

How such a desire might practically affect Britain's negotiations with those member states and the EU institutions may not be something he's much thought to.

Very much my point of view too - I see it as a liberating exercise across the whole of the continent. History will view it as such.

The death throes of the EU elites shouldn't bother us too much. Regimes will be replaced by others. Life will go on, and in an increasingly positive way.

SkyNews reporting this morning that 53% of French want an EU ref too

Indigo

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarkHopkins said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.

As I thought, will it push you to back Remain?

This isn't Norway. This isn't even Switzerland.

I can't see how we would get access to the single European financial services passport under this plan.

That's why our firm's risk analysis on Brexit concluded Brexit was bad for us.

Look on the bright side, you get to open and visit a new office in every EU country in the event of Brexit

Even in a no-financial-passport scenario, you would only have to open one office in one EU country. You could trade from there across the EU.

But I presume the financial passport will be negotiated in, though.

It was more based on Dominic Cummings' view/hopes

You might be right, but the consistent attitude that you are cleverer than all of the parties, and clearly have read all the papers they have, are party to all the side discussion that they have been, and know all the people that they know is an interesting one.

Casino_Royale

Pb Remainers should be careful not to gleefully mock visions and dreams.

European Union was once such a dream.

So was racial equality.

You are in danger of mocking the patriotic instincts of fellow Britons and our ability to still influence and shape the world.

Layne

Stark_Dawning said:

The most authentic Leavers I've met are the real diehards: pull up the drawbridge, scrap immigration, couldn't care less about trading with any of them. Okay, it's on the fringe, but the sheer purity of the position makes it difficult to argue with. This EFTA in, EEA out, in out in out and shake it all about stuff is crippling Leave and rendering their message a gibbering of monkeys. Someone - Farage perhaps as he's an old hand - needs to step in and restore some focus, drill in some coherence.

The most authentic Remainers I have met are those that openly admit they would rather have a liberal left dictatorship where elections don't matter, and admit they find British patriotism distasteful.

HurstLlama

edmundintokyo said:

HurstLlama said:

edmundintokyo said:

... You don't have free trade if people aren't allowed to move around.

Wow, so I have automatic residency rights in Japan with the same access to benefits,etc. as any Japanese citizen. I never knew that.

Alternatively, acceptable trade is possible for both sides without having to have free movement of people.

Britain and Japan don't have free trade.

But we do seem to manage to trade together very well. How can that be? Surely we should not be able to buy Japanese made goods at acceptable prices unless we have a free trade deal - we have been told this repeatedly on here over recent weeks. Mr. Observer, gent of this parish, went so far as saying the absence of a free trade deal would mean a restriction in consumer choice.

What is now the Uk has been a member of what is now the EU only since 1973 but traded successfully with what became European countries and beyond for millennia before that. The idea that trade depends on the EU's idea of Free Movement of people is laughable.

TonyE

Stark_Dawning said:

The most authentic Leavers I've met are the real diehards: pull up the drawbridge, scrap immigration, couldn't care less about trading with any of them. Okay, it's on the fringe, but the sheer purity of the position makes it difficult to argue with. This EFTA in, EEA out, in out in out and shake it all about stuff is crippling Leave and rendering their message a gibbering of monkeys. Someone - Farage perhaps as he's an old hand - needs to step in and restore some focus, drill in some coherence.

What you are talking about is the Ruth Lea school of Brexit. But unfortunately, however ideologically pure that is, it is totally intellectually incoherent.

Leaving is about restoring political freedom, but at the same time it is foolish to think that there are not going to be two sides to balance. We will need to continue trade, keep the non tariff barriers from popping up (such as retaining UK conformity certified here). Undoing 40 years of integration is not a process achieved by repealing the 1972 Act.

TheScreamingEagles

Indigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarkHopkins said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.

As I thought, will it push you to back Remain?

This isn't Norway. This isn't even Switzerland.

I can't see how we would get access to the single European financial services passport under this plan.

That's why our firm's risk analysis on Brexit concluded Brexit was bad for us.

Look on the bright side, you get to open and visit a new office in every EU country in the event of Brexit

Even in a no-financial-passport scenario, you would only have to open one office in one EU country. You could trade from there across the EU.

But I presume the financial passport will be negotiated in, though.

It was more based on Dominic Cummings' view/hopes

You might be right, but the consistent attitude that you are cleverer than all of the parties, and clearly have real all the papers they have, are party to all the side discussion that they have been, and know all the people that they know is an interesting one.

I would call that a radical interpretation of the facts.

Our Brexit impact report was headed by someone planning to vote Leave, he called in various experts in the field and produced a report that said Brexit was not in the firm's interest.

I know it was an excellent report, in that I had nothing to do with it.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.

As I thought, will it push you to back Remain?

This isn't Norway. This isn't even Switzerland.

I can't see how we would get access to the single European financial services passport under this plan.

That's why our firm's risk analysis on Brexit concluded Brexit was bad for us.

Look on the bright side, you get to open and visit a new office in every EU country in the event of Brexit

Some of us are voting on more than what's convenient for our firm.

When I worked for the Big 4 a competition commission break-up of the cartel would have negatively impacted me, and I probably would have needed to look for another job.

I still supported it. Same when I worked for BAA when it still owned Gatwick.

Layne

Scott_P said:

Layne said:

Europhiles once again showing their ignorance. The position articulated by VoteLeave is already achieved by several countries, not least Canada.

That's not true.

Gove tried it on R4 this morning, and changed his mind when corrected.

Talking of ignorance...

Ignorance are the fools on the Remain side who think EEA members follow CAP, or that CETA excludes financial services. They are not very bright these EU supporters.

Casino_Royale

CarlottaVance said:

Casino_Royale said:

Very different to the spin.

LEAVE's spin....

Citation needed.

HurstLlama

Stark_Dawning said:

The most authentic Leavers I've met are the real diehards: pull up the drawbridge, scrap immigration, couldn't care less about trading with any of them. Okay, it's on the fringe, but the sheer purity of the position makes it difficult to argue with. This EFTA in, EEA out, in out in out and shake it all about stuff is crippling Leave and rendering their message a gibbering of monkeys. Someone - Farage perhaps as he's an old hand - needs to step in and restore some focus, drill in some coherence.

What is an authentic leaver, please? I came to the conclusion that the UK would be better off out of what is now the EU in about 1992, but I do not want to pull up the drawbridge, scrap immigration and I do care passionately about trade. Am I not an authentic leaver?

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.

As I thought, will it push you to back Remain?

This isn't Norway. This isn't even Switzerland.

I can't see how we would get access to the single European financial services passport under this plan.

That's why our firm's risk analysis on Brexit concluded Brexit was bad for us.

Look on the bright side, you get to open and visit a new office in every EU country in the event of Brexit

Some of us are voting on more than what's convenient for our firm.

When I worked for the Big 4 a competition commission break-up of the cartel would have negatively impacted me, and I probably would have needed to look for another job.

I still supported it. Same when I worked for BAA when it still owned Gatwick.

I should have also added, bad for the wider economy too.

Ignore my tweet, and my comments, and just look at Robert's first comment on this thread.

If he's not best pleased with that Vote Leave are proposing, then it is a mistake by Vote Leave.

Casino_Royale

GeoffM said:

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

@AndrewSparrow: Gove implies he would like Brexit to lead to collapse of entire EU - https://t.co/5mPKHJ7kRm

For someone like Gove, who is big on ideas and philosophy, he'd no doubt regard the collapse of the EU itself as a good thing, not only for Britain but also for people in other member states.

How such a desire might practically affect Britain's negotiations with those member states and the EU institutions may not be something he's much thought to.

Very much my point of view too - I see it as a liberating exercise across the whole of the continent. History will view it as such.

The death throes of the EU elites shouldn't bother us too much. Regimes will be replaced by others. Life will go on, and in an increasingly positive way.

I am even firmer to vote Leave today than I was before.

What a vision. Gove is a true visionary and leader.

Layne

TheScreamingEagles said:

Layne said:

I see from Facebook that the Remain campaign is going big on the £4,300 figure. This is a lie and has been called out as such by everyone from the Sun to the BBC. Only an economic illiterate like George Osborne would confuse GDP and household income. Only a disreputable charlatan would divide a 2030 number by the number of 2015 households. Only a fearmongerer would paint a difference between two levels of growth as a loss.

If the UK is cowered to vote to remain, it will be on this central lie, and after billions of British taxes have stacked the referendum. It will be a completely illegitimate result.

What are these billions of British taxes you speak of?

I apologise for my autocorrect. That should be millions.

Luckyguy1983

Stark_Dawning said:

The most authentic Leavers I've met are the real diehards: pull up the drawbridge, scrap immigration, couldn't care less about trading with any of them. Okay, it's on the fringe, but the sheer purity of the position makes it difficult to argue with. This EFTA in, EEA out, in out in out and shake it all about stuff is crippling Leave and rendering their message a gibbering of monkeys. Someone - Farage perhaps as he's an old hand - needs to step in and restore some focus, drill in some coherence.

I disagree with your first part (obviously). I am vitally concerned with trade; I just want to do it by finding the right niches, making stuff people want to buy (or making people want to buy what we make), offering services people want, etc. Yes we need to get the best possible tariff deals to do that, but in a world where we're totally outpriced by developing countries, I just don't think it's the most important part of the mix. People still want Scotch whisky. People still want Aston Martins (see downthread). If anything I see a robust (but by no means unworkable) international circumstances as the fire the UK needs in its belly.

Your second part, I totally agree with, and I have argued time and time again that:
-Leave needed to neutralise fear with fear
-Leave need to leave (arf) off building post-Leave castles, and say there's a panoply of options, all of them preferable to the current circumstances.
-Vote Leave, Carswell, high-minded eloquent Tory euroscepticism - not to be relied upon. Otherwise they would have got somewhere rather than being content to do right minded blog pieces to their right minded friends for the past however many years. They are content to be right; they don't know how to win.
-Boris, not to be relied upon

I'll excuse your Farage sarcasm because broadly speaking you're right.

Indigo

TheScreamingEagles said:

Indigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarkHopkins said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.

As I thought, will it push you to back Remain?

This isn't Norway. This isn't even Switzerland.

I can't see how we would get access to the single European financial services passport under this plan.

That's why our firm's risk analysis on Brexit concluded Brexit was bad for us.

Look on the bright side, you get to open and visit a new office in every EU country in the event of Brexit

Even in a no-financial-passport scenario, you would only have to open one office in one EU country. You could trade from there across the EU.

But I presume the financial passport will be negotiated in, though.

It was more based on Dominic Cummings' view/hopes

You might be right, but the consistent attitude that you are cleverer than all of the parties, and clearly have real all the papers they have, are party to all the side discussion that they have been, and know all the people that they know is an interesting one.

I would call that a radical interpretation of the facts.

Our Brexit impact report was headed by someone planning to vote Leave, he called in various experts in the field and produced a report that said Brexit was not in the firm's interest.

I know it was an excellent report, in that I had nothing to do with it.

I don't mean that, I mean the level of pontification about say Article 50. "Oh really" say all the Remainers "how is he going to leave without Article 50". Well let's just think a minute, Gove is the Justice Minister, he has been looking at EU law issues for the past couple of years, maybe in that time he has spoken to a few EU politicians, possibly a few ECJ judges, for certain quite a lot of senior lawyers, and maybe received advice that there are alternate possibilities. I have no idea with this is the actual case, but neither does anyone else here, so sitting in our armchairs poo-pooing Gove as some sort of idiot on this basis does look a trifle premature.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

If anyone in Remain uses my analogy, I'm demanding royalties.

I'm more impressed that that's a normal day in the Eagles household

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.

As I thought, will it push you to back Remain?

This isn't Norway. This isn't even Switzerland.

I can't see how we would get access to the single European financial services passport under this plan.

That's why our firm's risk analysis on Brexit concluded Brexit was bad for us.

Look on the bright side, you get to open and visit a new office in every EU country in the event of Brexit

Some of us are voting on more than what's convenient for our firm.

When I worked for the Big 4 a competition commission break-up of the cartel would have negatively impacted me, and I probably would have needed to look for another job.

I still supported it. Same when I worked for BAA when it still owned Gatwick.

I should have also added, bad for the wider economy too.

Ignore my tweet, and my comments, and just look at Robert's first comment on this thread.

If he's not best pleased with that Vote Leave are proposing, then it is a mistake by Vote Leave.

I respectfully disagree.

I am satisfied with the evidence provided by Open Europe and Capital Economics that it would not be negative for the wider economy.

Robert is big enough to make his own mind up. So am I.

edmundintokyo

HurstLlama said:

edmundintokyo said:

HurstLlama said:

edmundintokyo said:

... You don't have free trade if people aren't allowed to move around.

Wow, so I have automatic residency rights in Japan with the same access to benefits,etc. as any Japanese citizen. I never knew that.

Alternatively, acceptable trade is possible for both sides without having to have free movement of people.

Britain and Japan don't have free trade.

But we do seem to manage to trade together very well. How can that be? Surely we should not be able to buy Japanese made goods at acceptable prices unless we have a free trade deal - we have been told this repeatedly on here over recent weeks. Mr. Observer, gent of this parish, went so far as saying the absence of a free trade deal would mean a restriction in consumer choice.

What is now the Uk has been a member of what is now the EU only since 1973 but traded successfully with what became European countries and beyond for millennia before that. The idea that trade depends on the EU's idea of Free Movement of people is laughable.

Britain and Japan trade, but it's not free. Importing goods into Japan has numerous tariffs, non-tariff barriers, quotas and outright bans. Sometimes the shops run out of butter. I am not making this up.

Alanbrooke

Scott_P said:

TonyE said:

Actually, I don't think Canada or any of the others have really achieved the position VL is advocating.

Nobody has ever achieved what they are proposing. Except in Fairy tales.

LOL that's how people view Dave's"renegotiation"

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If anyone in Remain uses my analogy, I'm demanding royalties.

I'm more impressed that that's a normal day in the Eagles household

It probably explains why we divorced last year.

Indigo

TheScreamingEagles said:

If he's not best pleased with that Vote Leave are proposing, then it is a mistake by Vote Leave.

Probably not, losing a few hundred libertarian free traders (of which are many on this forum, but almost none in the voting population) to firm up the tens of millions of people concerned about immigration probably makes good campaigning sense.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.

As I thought, will it push you to back Remain?

This isn't Norway. This isn't even Switzerland.

I can't see how we would get access to the single European financial services passport under this plan.

That's why our firm's risk analysis on Brexit concluded Brexit was bad for us.

Look on the bright side, you get to open and visit a new office in every EU country in the event of Brexit

Some of us are voting on more than what's convenient for our firm.

When I worked for the Big 4 a competition commission break-up of the cartel would have negatively impacted me, and I probably would have needed to look for another job.

I still supported it. Same when I worked for BAA when it still owned Gatwick.

I should have also added, bad for the wider economy too.

Ignore my tweet, and my comments, and just look at Robert's first comment on this thread.

If he's not best pleased with that Vote Leave are proposing, then it is a mistake by Vote Leave.

I respectfully disagree.

I am satisfied with the evidence provided by Open Europe and Capital Economics that it would not be negative for the wider economy.

Robert is big enough to make his own mind up. So am I.

Open Europe you say

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/722345657160318976

geoffw

robust = smutty

Casino_Royale

Indigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If he's not best pleased with that Vote Leave are proposing, then it is a mistake by Vote Leave.

Probably not, losing a few hundred libertarian free traders (of which are many on this forum, but almost none in the voting population) to firm up the tens of millions of people concerned about immigration probably makes good campaigning sense.

I've read the report in full, thank you. I know what is says and doesn't say.

I had to provide you with a link to it at the weekend.

Indigo

Casino_Royale said:

Indigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If he's not best pleased with that Vote Leave are proposing, then it is a mistake by Vote Leave.

Probably not, losing a few hundred libertarian free traders (of which are many on this forum, but almost none in the voting population) to firm up the tens of millions of people concerned about immigration probably makes good campaigning sense.

I've read the report in full, thank you. I know what is says and doesn't say.

I had to provide you with a link to it at the weekend.

Not me you didn't (I have read it) assume you are pointing this at Eagles.

edmundintokyo

NickPalmer said:

edmundintokyo said:

FPT

David_Evershed said:

edmundintokyo said:

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@megalomaniacs4u Britain's recent immigrants are twice as likely as the native-born to have completed education aged 21 or over. The idea that Britain is getting low grade immigrants is simply untrue.

The net quality of each immigrant should be even higher if we were outside the EU.

Out of interest is there some kind of published standard or something so I can find out what grade of immigrant I am?

Use the Australian points system as a surrogate until there is a UK points system after a BREXIT.

Thanks, I tried this calculator:
http://www.migrationmatters.com/australiapoints.php
...and despite self-assessing my English as "superior" I got only 50 out of a required passing grade of 65, so I guess I'm a medium-to-low-grade immigrant.

And apparently a total ban on anyone over 49?

British babies were of notoriously shoddy quality until at least the late 1960s.

NickPalmer

Layne said:

The most authentic Remainers I have met are those that openly admit they would rather have a liberal left dictatorship where elections don't matter, and admit they find British patriotism distasteful.

Welcome to PB, Layne, but as a denizen of the left all my life, I've never actually met ANYONE who says they'd like a liberal dictatorship (a contradiction in terms, surely?) where elections don't matter. How many such people have you really met?

TheScreamingEagles

geoffw said:

robust = smutty

Brace yourself, I'm editing PB for most of June.

Pulpstar

Sanders 50 - Clinton 49 in upstate New York apparently.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

Sanders 50 - Clinton 49 in upstate New York apparently.

Blimey.

Casino_Royale

Indigo said:

Casino_Royale said:

Indigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If he's not best pleased with that Vote Leave are proposing, then it is a mistake by Vote Leave.

Probably not, losing a few hundred libertarian free traders (of which are many on this forum, but almost none in the voting population) to firm up the tens of millions of people concerned about immigration probably makes good campaigning sense.

I've read the report in full, thank you. I know what is says and doesn't say.

I had to provide you with a link to it at the weekend.

Not me you didn't (I have read it) assume you are pointing this at Eagles.

Sorry! I must have hit the wrong quote button.

Apologies.

rcs1000

MarkHopkins said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.

As I thought, will it push you to back Remain?

This isn't Norway. This isn't even Switzerland.

I can't see how we would get access to the single European financial services passport under this plan.

That's why our firm's risk analysis on Brexit concluded Brexit was bad for us.

Look on the bright side, you get to open and visit a new office in every EU country in the event of Brexit

Even in a no-financial-passport scenario, you would only have to open one office in one EU country. You could trade from there across the EU.

But I presume the financial passport will be negotiated in, though.

Switzerland doesn't have the financial passport, and does make contributions to the EU budget.

But you are right; we would only have to open one office in the EU. But it would not be cost-less; we pay away 30% of our revs in Switzerland to avoid the cost. One other point, you need regulatory capital in the subsidiary too, which is also (an expensive) pain.

Norm

If free movement of labour is the be-all and end-all for someone and I accept that is a perfectly respectable position then they should vote to remain. If however you just want some modicum of control on immigration to be restored (without pulling up any drawbridges) the only possible way that can be achieved is by voting to leave.

TCPoliticalBetting

TheScreamingEagles said:

geoffw said:

robust = smutty

Brace yourself, I'm editing PB for most of June.

Oh good, nothing will happen then...

AndyJS

"If the pollsters are still making the sort of errors that got the election result so woefully wrong a year ago, then Britain’s future in Europe looks bleak indeed. Even on the face of things the ‘Leave’ campaign is doing comparatively well, and is running ‘Remain’ dangerously close. If the number of older voters is again being underestimated – these, after all, are the ones who are the most Eurosceptic and most likely to turn out at the polling stations – then the country is on track for a political earthquake that will make last year’s general election upset feel like mere indigestion."

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/eu-referendum-we-could-be-in-for-a-political-earthquake-a6990081.html

Luckyguy1983

On 'topic' I think a better analogy would be getting divorced and wanting a good settlement. PB lawyers could tell me more but I believe it happens, and that despite the possibility of acrimony, it's often better to reach a settlement that works for both parties.

Indigo

edmundintokyo said:

NickPalmer said:

edmundintokyo said:

FPT

David_Evershed said:

edmundintokyo said:

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@megalomaniacs4u Britain's recent immigrants are twice as likely as the native-born to have completed education aged 21 or over. The idea that Britain is getting low grade immigrants is simply untrue.

The net quality of each immigrant should be even higher if we were outside the EU.

Out of interest is there some kind of published standard or something so I can find out what grade of immigrant I am?

Use the Australian points system as a surrogate until there is a UK points system after a BREXIT.

Thanks, I tried this calculator:
http://www.migrationmatters.com/australiapoints.php
...and despite self-assessing my English as "superior" I got only 50 out of a required passing grade of 65, so I guess I'm a medium-to-low-grade immigrant.

And apparently a total ban on anyone over 49?

British babies were of notoriously shoddy quality until at least the late 1960s.

I think a total ban is a little misleading. There are all sorts of other visas for family members and so forth. The points system is essentially for people with no connection to the country wanting to emigrate there, and they understandably want people to have enough of a working life left to contribute something to their country before they start claiming their pensions and benefits from the state. If we took more useful people and less spongers and unskilled labourers we might have slightly less of a benefits bill. The Australian spousal visa for example is much more liberal than ours, basically be married to an Australian citizen, don't be a crook, and don't have untreated Tuberculosis.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Sanders 50 - Clinton 49 in upstate New York apparently.

Blimey.

Some encouragement for Bernie, but he'll need to win upstate by a far bigger margin than that to compete, as Hillary will win everything south of Westchester.

TheScreamingEagles

TCPoliticalBetting said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

geoffw said:

robust = smutty

Brace yourself, I'm editing PB for most of June.

Oh good, nothing will happen then...

Mike's changed his holiday plans, so he will be back the week of the referendum, originally he would have been out of the country until the 27th of June.

Otherwise I'd be putting all my money on Leave winning and Cameron being forced out

runnymede

Stupid thread header

HurstLlama

edmundintokyo said:

HurstLlama said:

edmundintokyo said:

HurstLlama said:

edmundintokyo said:

... You don't have free trade if people aren't allowed to move around.

Wow, so I have automatic residency rights in Japan with the same access to benefits,etc. as any Japanese citizen. I never knew that.

Alternatively, acceptable trade is possible for both sides without having to have free movement of people.

Britain and Japan don't have free trade.

But we do seem to manage to trade together very well. How can that be? Surely we should not be able to buy Japanese made goods at acceptable prices unless we have a free trade deal - we have been told this repeatedly on here over recent weeks. Mr. Observer, gent of this parish, went so far as saying the absence of a free trade deal would mean a restriction in consumer choice.

What is now the Uk has been a member of what is now the EU only since 1973 but traded successfully with what became European countries and beyond for millennia before that. The idea that trade depends on the EU's idea of Free Movement of people is laughable.

Britain and Japan trade, but it's not free. Importing goods into Japan has numerous tariffs, non-tariff barriers, quotas and outright bans. Sometimes the shops run out of butter. I am not making this up.

Isn't that Japan's problem? If the people running the show are so fecking incompetnent as to fail to ensure their own peoples basic needs it says nothing about international trade. It is not as if there is an international shortage of milk.

PAW

Do we think the EU helps or hinders government action to help the steel, shipbuilding, chemical, wafer fabs in the UK?

Luckyguy1983

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:

Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.

As I thought, will it push you to back Remain?

This isn't Norway. This isn't even Switzerland.

I can't see how we would get access to the single European financial services passport under this plan.

That's why our firm's risk analysis on Brexit concluded Brexit was bad for us.

Look on the bright side, you get to open and visit a new office in every EU country in the event of Brexit

Some of us are voting on more than what's convenient for our firm.

When I worked for the Big 4 a competition commission break-up of the cartel would have negatively impacted me, and I probably would have needed to look for another job.

I still supported it. Same when I worked for BAA when it still owned Gatwick.

I should have also added, bad for the wider economy too.

Ignore my tweet, and my comments, and just look at Robert's first comment on this thread.

If he's not best pleased with that Vote Leave are proposing, then it is a mistake by Vote Leave.

I respectfully disagree.

I am satisfied with the evidence provided by Open Europe and Capital Economics that it would not be negative for the wider economy.

Robert is big enough to make his own mind up. So am I.

Quite. Much as I respect him for running a successful business, I don't feel the need to agree with him on every issue, especially as he spent several weeks behaving in an exceptionally ill-bred manner toward me, apparently due to me being a KGB agent.