The EU is very protectionist - there are hundreds of sub-groups that want to put protection in all the trade deals that the EU negotiate - and trade between the UK and other countries suffers as we have to impose those tariffs - which are of course reciprocated. (The current problem, I gather is with Italian tomato growers. Why should the UK suffer because of Italian tomato growers FFS?
When the UK leaves, we can negotiate as a single country trade deals with those economies that are being denied free access to the EU market. A 1:1 trade deal will be negotiated in a tenth of the time a 27:1 trade deal can be negotiated.
All of which means that trade by the UK outside of the EU - already growing as a percentage - will INCREASE when we leave.
Interestingly this afternoon a good friend of mine has come out for Leave. He is a former Tory county and district councillor, loaths UKIP and is someone I had down as a probable Remain.
His reason has nothing to do with the arguments per second but is based on disgust at what he views as the dishonest and scaremongering way that Remain are conducting their campaign.
Remain might turn.out to be the Eurosceptic's trump card.
Excellent news.
Just as an aside, thinking this through, this probably means that the hounds of hell will be thrown in now into our referendum by the whole of the EU.
I think Gove relishes The Good Fight but the next 8 weeks now mean absolutely everything to them.
Not really what I was looking for either. I will need to think about it. The single passport is probably the most economically important thing that we have got out of the EU and a significant part of our tax base is dependent on it. Like you I think I would concede freedom of movement in a heart beat to keep it.
I can understand why they have sought to go the way they have as it keeps more of what is a very broad coalition rather than a party together but I can't deny that I am disappointed that there is not a clearer, colder view of where our key interests are.
David - a few queries:
1. what % of UK financial services exports to the EU would you say rely on passporting? 2. what year did passporting come in (properly)? 3. how relevant will passporting be when MIFIDII comes in and third country financial institutions will be able to sell in the EU provided their regulatory and supervisory regimes are broadly equivalent to those in the EU?
IANAE on this. My understanding is: 1. I am not aware of the % but it is a major reason why US and other international firms are happy to be based in London and the share of the EU Financial Services market serviced in London has been increasing. If those firms decided to relocate we would not only lose exports but probably end up importing services currently provided here. I fear London would also lose a significant part of the critical mass which makes it so strong at the moment. If you have a figure I would like to see it. 2. Not sure what you mean by properly. I think there is an argument that it is not "properly" in force yet. The Directives to allow this really started in 1999 and took a very large step forward in 2007. 3. I am not sure. MiFiD II originally had a requirement for an EU licence or regulator but the UK has been pushing for that to be dropped and I understand that is currently the position although it may well change again in the event of Brexit. I think that the risk of this happening in the event that we leave both the EU and the Single Market is significant.
Interestingly this afternoon a good friend of mine has come out for Leave. He is a former Tory county and district councillor, loaths UKIP and is someone I had down as a probable Remain.
His reason has nothing to do with the arguments per second but is based on disgust at what he views as the dishonest and scaremongering way that Remain are conducting their campaign.
Remain might turn.out to be the Eurosceptic's trump card.
Excellent news.
Just as an aside, thinking this through, this probably means that the hounds of hell will be thrown in now into our referendum by the whole of the EU.
I think Gove relishes The Good Fight but the next 8 weeks now mean absolutely everything to them.
Prepare for incoming..
Such a good idea, ganging up to attack people from a country you wish to stay in your club. What could possibly go wrong.
@bbclaurak: Vote Leave asked if they hope Brexit would trigger the end of the whole EU ? 'Certainly'
Haven't seen the news so just picking up on that comment if Gove said it he is a tit
This referendum is proving to be a great destroyer of reputations - nearly all of them Conservative - Cameron, Osborne, Gove, javid - who's next ?
Gove didn't say that.
Gove said that if you vote leave you will trigger a great democratic contagion in Europe. He portrayed us as the saviour of a continent crying out for change.
That's quite a positive vision for the future, for me.
Only yesterday Leavers berating Obama having an opinion on Brexit, now Gove has taken it up on himself to try and wreck the EU whether the other countries like it or not, he's either delusional or arrogant beyond belief.
Gove is doing what is in the interests of the UK.
It happens to be in the best interests of everyone else on the continent too (although not their elite), but that's just a spectacularly lucky bonus ball for everybody.
So " it's in the best interests of everyone else on the continent too"
Do they get a vote to decide or does Gove just decide for the whole of Europe?
Other countries won't leave automatically if we do. If they wish to, they will undoubtedly vote on the matter. Not sure what the issue is.
The issue to me is how we expect to get the improbably optimistic deal that has Gove has outlined out of the EU, after Leave have run a campaign that explicitly includes hoping to bring the EU down.
Your last sentence is mendacious twaddle. The official Leave group is Vote Leave, I'd humbly apologise if you can point me to where their official literature hopes to bring down the EU.
Just because a Labour voter is in prison for murder doesn't mean Labour supports murderers.
I'll give it to you for the 4th time on this thread:-
"Does this mean they hope Brexit could collapse the whole EU? 'Certainly' - came the answer from senior members of the team, an ambition more bold than anything Outers"
@bbclaurak: Vote Leave asked if they hope Brexit would trigger the end of the whole EU ? 'Certainly'
Haven't seen the news so just picking up on that comment if Gove said it he is a tit
This referendum is proving to be a great destroyer of reputations - nearly all of them Conservative - Cameron, Osborne, Gove, javid - who's next ?
Don't forget Boris.
Do the Lib Dems intend joining the EURef conversation? I thought they were quite keen on the EU, or is it now an nth priority behind the elections to Little Dribblesome Town Council and the like for Farron?
After May 5th, yes. Until then the local (and devolved assembly) elections are higher priority. Frankly, this mess is all of Cameron's making. He might be relying on LD / Labour to get him out of trouble, but we can let him stew and lose lots of council seats first.
Do you think the Conservatives are going to lose seats, net? I'm working on the basis of gains here.
Gove's expressed ambitions for the rest of Europe are surprising. The euro-sceptic mantra was always 'We're happy to see the EU work if that's what those countries want, but it's just not for us, thanks.' Now Gove is behaving like some latter-day Napoleon, lustful to impose his own fantasies and desires upon an entire continent. This could actually be almost dangerous. Many in the east see the EU as their only aegis against a waiting, watchful Russia. If Gove intends to smash all that up...
If a key board member of a company has had enough getting a rough deal and decides to leave, and all the others say "but you can't leave, we need you here", how likely is it he is going to say "Oh alright, since you put it that way" ?
We shouldn't actively try and pull things down, but since we would be leaving because of their complete intransigence on renegotiating, its hard to get sympathetic about any collateral damage of us leaving, if we were that important then perhaps they should have tried harder to persuade us to stay.
This reminds me of Mervyn King expediting his Prexit yesterday.
'1. I am not aware of the % but it is a major reason why US and other international firms are happy to be based in London and the share of the EU Financial Services market serviced in London has been increasing. If those firms decided to relocate we would not only lose exports but probably end up importing services currently provided here. I fear London would also lose a significant part of the critical mass which makes it so strong at the moment. If you have a figure I would like to see it. 2. Not sure what you mean by properly. I think there is an argument that it is not "properly" in force yet. The Directives to allow this really started in 1999 and took a very large step forward in 2007. 3. I am not sure. MiFiD II originally had a requirement for an EU licence or regulator but the UK has been pushing for that to be dropped and I understand that is currently the position although it may well change again in the event of Brexit. I think that the risk of this happening in the event that we leave both the EU and the Single Market is significant.'
---------------------------------------------
David - thanks. But what a lot of gaps in the picture there are, no?
I don't have a precise figure for question 1 either, though have been asking around.
UK financial services exports to the EU most certainly did not start in 1999 or 2000 and indeed were quite significant before that. So how great is the downside risk, really?
Similarly, the big US (and many European) banks came here before the passporting regime as well. I know they say they like it, but that clearly wasn't the original motivation in arriving.
I enclose FYI a report I have seen by PWC which produces rather small estimates of the long-term impact of Brexit on UK financial services GDP, which are moreover somewhat bulked out by questionable assumptions re, immigration and 'uncertainty'. The impacts are of the scale 2-4% by 2030 (depending on the post-Brexit trade regime) of which trade effects only are 0.6-2%. These translate into really small effects on broader UK GDP.
They go on to caveat these results with some hand waving about relocation risks but without anything to back it up really (given who the client was, I imagine there was a bit of to-ing and fro-ing on the drafting based on 'why can't we make the numbers bigger/stress more downside risks' etc.)
Is there a chance a wealthy Leave supporter has put a lot of money down to move the odds - a bit like was rumoured to have happened in that Lib Dem leadership contest quite a few years ago?
Is there a chance a wealthy Leave supporter has put a lot of money down to move the odds - a bit like was rumoured to have happened in that Lib Dem leadership contest quite a few years ago?
We hosted a dinner party on Saturday night. I'm under strict instructions at home NEVER to mention politics in company (can't understand why) but the subject of the referendum came up.
I'm sure you'll all be shocked to find out that the affluent metropolitan gay middle-aged vote was lining up 100% for Remain. I was probably the most Eurosceptical person in the room.
I also hosted a dinner party on Saturday mt guests were surprised to find I was firmly voting out most of them think that because I've worked in Europe so much I'm a firm remainer.
I gave my cat his supper on Saturday night and he was firmly of the opinion that whatever gave him the most prawns was the right solution.
Is there a chance a wealthy Leave supporter has put a lot of money down to move the odds - a bit like was rumoured to have happened in that Lib Dem leadership contest quite a few years ago?
Ha, I have been wondering about that. If only there were some very wealthy and litigious Leave supporter... er, I wouldn't want to speculate.
We hosted a dinner party on Saturday night. I'm under strict instructions at home NEVER to mention politics in company (can't understand why) but the subject of the referendum came up.
I'm sure you'll all be shocked to find out that the affluent metropolitan gay middle-aged vote was lining up 100% for Remain. I was probably the most Eurosceptical person in the room.
I also hosted a dinner party on Saturday mt guests were surprised to find I was firmly voting out most of them think that because I've worked in Europe so much I'm a firm remainer.
I gave my cat his supper on Saturday night and he was firmly of the opinion that whatever gave him the most prawns was the right solution.
There's nothing that I'm aware off. It could be seen as a correction, given the continuing close polling.
That would be my thinking too. With both sides seemingly doing their level best to lose, the odds ought to be closer than they are. That said, Leave's losers have a stronger track record.
Bookies do not predict results, Mr. L. They arrange prices to suit where the money is being placed so that they can make a profit whatever the actual outcome.
I am constantly amazed that so few people on this, a betting site, seem to understand this basic fact.
Is there a chance a wealthy Leave supporter has put a lot of money down to move the odds - a bit like was rumoured to have happened in that Lib Dem leadership contest quite a few years ago?
Ha, I have been wondering about that. If only there were some very wealthy and litigious Leave supporter... er, I wouldn't want to speculate.
If you think that's what is going on then I'd suggest there is an opening to pile in on Remain. For all the bravado on both sides on this site I've yet to read of anyone putting down serious money either way.
Presumably the rationale for the polling/odds disparity is that punters think voters in the privacy of the booth will say, Holy ???? what will happen if we actually leave?
Is there a chance a wealthy Leave supporter has put a lot of money down to move the odds - a bit like was rumoured to have happened in that Lib Dem leadership contest quite a few years ago?
Ha, I have been wondering about that. If only there were some very wealthy and litigious Leave supporter... er, I wouldn't want to speculate.
If you think that's what is going on then I'd suggest there is an opening to pile in on Remain. For all the bravado on both sides on this site I've yet to read of anyone putting down serious money either way.
Just under £5 million has already been matched on Betfair on the main referendum result market. There are a lot of people putting down serious money on this.
We hosted a dinner party on Saturday night. I'm under strict instructions at home NEVER to mention politics in company (can't understand why) but the subject of the referendum came up.
I'm sure you'll all be shocked to find out that the affluent metropolitan gay middle-aged vote was lining up 100% for Remain. I was probably the most Eurosceptical person in the room.
I also hosted a dinner party on Saturday mt guests were surprised to find I was firmly voting out most of them think that because I've worked in Europe so much I'm a firm remainer.
I gave my cat his supper on Saturday night and he was firmly of the opinion that whatever gave him the most prawns was the right solution.
That's his version of "the economy, stupid"?
I think so, Mr. Wanderer, and it is the same reasoning as we have seen on here from Darth Eagles and several others - this is what is best for my bank (stomach) account in the short term and that is what matters.
I'm still reeling from being called a cretin by Godfrey Bloom.
I know. I am amazed he has actually said something sensible for once. :-)
Like a dwarf blowjob, that's a very low blow.
And we wonder why there are so few female posters here...
I think today's thread header is the lowest point for this site in the 8-9 years I have been reading it. Really pathetic.
One can only wonder at what those advertising on the site would think.
Oh please.
Speaking as someone leaning towards Leave, the apparent sense-of-humour bypasses that some of the more committed Leavers seem to have suffered is a bit offputting.
Is there a chance a wealthy Leave supporter has put a lot of money down to move the odds - a bit like was rumoured to have happened in that Lib Dem leadership contest quite a few years ago?
Ha, I have been wondering about that. If only there were some very wealthy and litigious Leave supporter... er, I wouldn't want to speculate.
If you think that's what is going on then I'd suggest there is an opening to pile in on Remain. For all the bravado on both sides on this site I've yet to read of anyone putting down serious money either way.
I was kidding.
I'm thinking about that 1.58 but I'm not that tempted. I've been backing Leave up to now. If it tightens a bit more I might change sides.
Is there a chance a wealthy Leave supporter has put a lot of money down to move the odds - a bit like was rumoured to have happened in that Lib Dem leadership contest quite a few years ago?
Ha, I have been wondering about that. If only there were some very wealthy and litigious Leave supporter... er, I wouldn't want to speculate.
If you think that's what is going on then I'd suggest there is an opening to pile in on Remain. For all the bravado on both sides on this site I've yet to read of anyone putting down serious money either way.
Just under £5 million has already been matched on Betfair on the main referendum result market. There are a lot of people putting down serious money on this.
I guess its conceivable that people and/or businesses with skin in the game one way or another could be using the betting market as a hedge.
Is there a chance a wealthy Leave supporter has put a lot of money down to move the odds - a bit like was rumoured to have happened in that Lib Dem leadership contest quite a few years ago?
Ha, I have been wondering about that. If only there were some very wealthy and litigious Leave supporter... er, I wouldn't want to speculate.
If you think that's what is going on then I'd suggest there is an opening to pile in on Remain. For all the bravado on both sides on this site I've yet to read of anyone putting down serious money either way.
Just under £5 million has already been matched on Betfair on the main referendum result market. There are a lot of people putting down serious money on this.
Interesting. You probably won't know this off the top off your head, but how does that compare with most seats two months out from last year's GE?
Leave's best and only hope is to win with immigration, and it is a very strong card. But they have now essentially ceded the economy to Remain. It's a high-risk strategy.
I'm still reeling from being called a cretin by Godfrey Bloom.
I know. I am amazed he has actually said something sensible for once. :-)
Like a dwarf blowjob, that's a very low blow.
And we wonder why there are so few female posters here...
I think today's thread header is the lowest point for this site in the 8-9 years I have been reading it. Really pathetic.
One can only wonder at what those advertising on the site would think.
Oh please.
Speaking as someone leaning towards Leave, the apparent sense-of-humour bypasses that some of the more committed Leavers seem to have suffered is a bit offputting.
Quite .... even I doubted that some of the fanatic Brexiteers could stoop so low ....
Is there a chance a wealthy Leave supporter has put a lot of money down to move the odds - a bit like was rumoured to have happened in that Lib Dem leadership contest quite a few years ago?
Ha, I have been wondering about that. If only there were some very wealthy and litigious Leave supporter... er, I wouldn't want to speculate.
If you think that's what is going on then I'd suggest there is an opening to pile in on Remain. For all the bravado on both sides on this site I've yet to read of anyone putting down serious money either way.
Just under £5 million has already been matched on Betfair on the main referendum result market. There are a lot of people putting down serious money on this.
What was the final figures on IndyRef, looks like this one is going to surpass it handily.
Is there a chance a wealthy Leave supporter has put a lot of money down to move the odds - a bit like was rumoured to have happened in that Lib Dem leadership contest quite a few years ago?
Ha, I have been wondering about that. If only there were some very wealthy and litigious Leave supporter... er, I wouldn't want to speculate.
If you think that's what is going on then I'd suggest there is an opening to pile in on Remain. For all the bravado on both sides on this site I've yet to read of anyone putting down serious money either way.
Just under £5 million has already been matched on Betfair on the main referendum result market. There are a lot of people putting down serious money on this.
Interesting. You probably won't know this off the top off your head, but how does that compare with most seats two months out from last year's GE?
I'm afraid I don't. By way of comparison, so far £6.2 million has been staked on the next US president market.
Is there a chance a wealthy Leave supporter has put a lot of money down to move the odds - a bit like was rumoured to have happened in that Lib Dem leadership contest quite a few years ago?
Ha, I have been wondering about that. If only there were some very wealthy and litigious Leave supporter... er, I wouldn't want to speculate.
If you think that's what is going on then I'd suggest there is an opening to pile in on Remain. For all the bravado on both sides on this site I've yet to read of anyone putting down serious money either way.
Just under £5 million has already been matched on Betfair on the main referendum result market. There are a lot of people putting down serious money on this.
Interesting. You probably won't know this off the top off your head, but how does that compare with most seats two months out from last year's GE?
I'm afraid I don't. By way of comparison, so far £6.2 million has been staked on the next US president market.
From the gamblers on this site I've got the impression that they're less interested to get involved with the EU referendum as there are fewer angles to exploit.
I'm still reeling from being called a cretin by Godfrey Bloom.
I know. I am amazed he has actually said something sensible for once. :-)
Like a dwarf blowjob, that's a very low blow.
And we wonder why there are so few female posters here...
I think today's thread header is the lowest point for this site in the 8-9 years I have been reading it. Really pathetic.
I really think that is overreacting.
I was critical of the Leave.eu poster yesterday because it would be out in places where children and those averse to bad language might see it. As such I think it us counter productive. But thus is an adult site dealing with adult themes and as such a bit of risqué language once in a while us really not something to complain about. .
"Asked to explain whether the government has quietly abandoned its pledge, the Treasury said the UK would probably have to accept the status quo on EU migration as the price of continued access to European markets."
So the pledge to reduce annual immigration to 100,000 was always a .... fill in the missing word. Is it fib, lie, or porky?
Now, you may approve of immigration controls or not, but promising something that you know to be impossible is one of the above three. A whole range of politicians lied in 1975 so when it comes to the EU, they have form. Yet they expect to be believed now.
The Oldies remember, the young have no memory.
"Hey, Gran, that nice Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne say we ought to vote IN, so why aren't you? They never lie, do they?"
I'm still reeling from being called a cretin by Godfrey Bloom.
I know. I am amazed he has actually said something sensible for once. :-)
Like a dwarf blowjob, that's a very low blow.
And we wonder why there are so few female posters here...
I think today's thread header is the lowest point for this site in the 8-9 years I have been reading it. Really pathetic.
One can only wonder at what those advertising on the site would think.
Oh please.
Speaking as someone leaning towards Leave, the apparent sense-of-humour bypasses that some of the more committed Leavers seem to have suffered is a bit offputting.
Straw poll of my Labour Party Branch meeting. Based on about 20 members last week 50% leave 30% undecided or WNV 20% Remain
I'm still reeling from being called a cretin by Godfrey Bloom.
I know. I am amazed he has actually said something sensible for once. :-)
Like a dwarf blowjob, that's a very low blow.
And we wonder why there are so few female posters here...
I think today's thread header is the lowest point for this site in the 8-9 years I have been reading it. Really pathetic.
One can only wonder at what those advertising on the site would think.
Oh please.
Speaking as someone leaning towards Leave, the apparent sense-of-humour bypasses that some of the more committed Leavers seem to have suffered is a bit offputting.
Straw poll of my Labour Party Branch meeting. Based on about 20 members last week 50% leave 30% undecided or WNV 20% Remain
Is there a chance a wealthy Leave supporter has put a lot of money down to move the odds - a bit like was rumoured to have happened in that Lib Dem leadership contest quite a few years ago?
Ha, I have been wondering about that. If only there were some very wealthy and litigious Leave supporter... er, I wouldn't want to speculate.
If you think that's what is going on then I'd suggest there is an opening to pile in on Remain. For all the bravado on both sides on this site I've yet to read of anyone putting down serious money either way.
Out of interest what do PBers consider serious money bets?
I'm still reeling from being called a cretin by Godfrey Bloom.
I know. I am amazed he has actually said something sensible for once. :-)
Like a dwarf blowjob, that's a very low blow.
And we wonder why there are so few female posters here...
I think today's thread header is the lowest point for this site in the 8-9 years I have been reading it. Really pathetic.
One can only wonder at what those advertising on the site would think.
Oh please.
Speaking as someone leaning towards Leave, the apparent sense-of-humour bypasses that some of the more committed Leavers seem to have suffered is a bit offputting.
Straw poll of my Labour Party Branch meeting. Based on about 20 members last week 50% leave 30% undecided or WNV 20% Remain
I'm still reeling from being called a cretin by Godfrey Bloom.
I know. I am amazed he has actually said something sensible for once. :-)
Like a dwarf blowjob, that's a very low blow.
And we wonder why there are so few female posters here...
I think today's thread header is the lowest point for this site in the 8-9 years I have been reading it. Really pathetic.
One can only wonder at what those advertising on the site would think.
Oh please.
Speaking as someone leaning towards Leave, the apparent sense-of-humour bypasses that some of the more committed Leavers seem to have suffered is a bit offputting.
Straw poll of my Labour Party Branch meeting. Based on about 20 members last week 50% leave 30% undecided or WNV 20% Remain
Doesn't entirely surprise me. Remain appeals more to those who have done well out of the status quo and because they've done well and are used to getting their own way don't empathise too well with those that disagree with them. Labour members see the other side more often and the adverse effect free movement and the unfettered market has had on low paid workers.
It is becoming increasingly difficult to work out which arguments against leaving the EU are serious and which are a joke. A perfect example being I initially thought the UK being at risk of attack from North Korea was a joke.
I'm still reeling from being called a cretin by Godfrey Bloom.
I know. I am amazed he has actually said something sensible for once. :-)
Like a dwarf blowjob, that's a very low blow.
And we wonder why there are so few female posters here...
I think today's thread header is the lowest point for this site in the 8-9 years I have been reading it. Really pathetic.
One can only wonder at what those advertising on the site would think.
Oh please.
Speaking as someone leaning towards Leave, the apparent sense-of-humour bypasses that some of the more committed Leavers seem to have suffered is a bit offputting.
Straw poll of my Labour Party Branch meeting. Based on about 20 members last week 50% leave 30% undecided or WNV 20% Remain
Small sample of course but could you give a few more indicators about the "50% LEAVE" whther or not they are mainly aged 55+ and whether they are AFAIK mainly working class?
I'm still reeling from being called a cretin by Godfrey Bloom.
I know. I am amazed he has actually said something sensible for once. :-)
Like a dwarf blowjob, that's a very low blow.
And we wonder why there are so few female posters here...
I think today's thread header is the lowest point for this site in the 8-9 years I have been reading it. Really pathetic.
One can only wonder at what those advertising on the site would think.
Oh please.
Speaking as someone leaning towards Leave, the apparent sense-of-humour bypasses that some of the more committed Leavers seem to have suffered is a bit offputting.
Quite .... even I doubted that some of the fanatic Brexiteers could stoop so low ....
I thought TSE was for REMAIN and it is his comments that have stooped so low.
"Australians will likely go to the polls in a double dissolution election on July 2, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has confirmed. Mr Turnbull said the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC) reforms, twice rejected by the Senate, would be "a trigger for a double dissolution election"."
I'm still reeling from being called a cretin by Godfrey Bloom.
I know. I am amazed he has actually said something sensible for once. :-)
Like a dwarf blowjob, that's a very low blow.
And we wonder why there are so few female posters here...
I think today's thread header is the lowest point for this site in the 8-9 years I have been reading it. Really pathetic.
One can only wonder at what those advertising on the site would think.
Oh please.
Speaking as someone leaning towards Leave, the apparent sense-of-humour bypasses that some of the more committed Leavers seem to have suffered is a bit offputting.
Straw poll of my Labour Party Branch meeting. Based on about 20 members last week 50% leave 30% undecided or WNV 20% Remain
Small sample of course but could you give a few more indicators about the "50% LEAVE" whther or not they are mainly aged 55+ and whether they are AFAIK mainly working class?
Definitely overrepresentative in terms of male, exclusively white and about half my age or older (55). 4 in 18 - 25 age group.
It is becoming increasingly difficult to work out which arguments against leaving the EU are serious and which are a joke. A perfect example being I initially thought the UK being at risk of attack from North Korea was a joke.
The reasons the college of midwives rep gave at lunchtime was equally hard to work out if they were a spoof or not.
Is there a chance a wealthy Leave supporter has put a lot of money down to move the odds - a bit like was rumoured to have happened in that Lib Dem leadership contest quite a few years ago?
Ha, I have been wondering about that. If only there were some very wealthy and litigious Leave supporter... er, I wouldn't want to speculate.
If you think that's what is going on then I'd suggest there is an opening to pile in on Remain. For all the bravado on both sides on this site I've yet to read of anyone putting down serious money either way.
Just under £5 million has already been matched on Betfair on the main referendum result market. There are a lot of people putting down serious money on this.
Interesting. You probably won't know this off the top off your head, but how does that compare with most seats two months out from last year's GE?
OGH had a post on that within the past week and I thought he said most money was in last week or so before the GE. We are 9 weeks from the ref.
Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.
Nor am I.
And implying that you want the whole thing to collapse is pretty stupid too. Just because an organization may not work for us does not mean that it isn't fine for others. Saying or implying such a thing is not going to make post-exit relationships any easier.
I'm still reeling from being called a cretin by Godfrey Bloom.
I know. I am amazed he has actually said something sensible for once. :-)
Like a dwarf blowjob, that's a very low blow.
And we wonder why there are so few female posters here...
I think today's thread header is the lowest point for this site in the 8-9 years I have been reading it. Really pathetic.
One can only wonder at what those advertising on the site would think.
Oh please.
Speaking as someone leaning towards Leave, the apparent sense-of-humour bypasses that some of the more committed Leavers seem to have suffered is a bit offputting.
Quite .... even I doubted that some of the fanatic Brexiteers could stoop so low ....
I thought TSE was for REMAIN and it is his comments that have stooped so low.
I think my comment went over your head .... so to speak ....
It is becoming increasingly difficult to work out which arguments against leaving the EU are serious and which are a joke. A perfect example being I initially thought the UK being at risk of attack from North Korea was a joke.
The reasons the college of midwives rep gave at lunchtime was equally hard to work out if they were a spoof or not.
They like all the extra work and job opportunities and higher temp rates driven by the increase in nubile/fertile women coming from the EU? ("N" word for benefit of TSE)
Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.
Nor am I.
And implying that you want the whole thing to collapse is pretty stupid too. Just because an organization may not work for us does not mean that it isn't fine for others. Saying or implying such a thing is not going to make post-exit relationships any easier.
That's not what Gove said. Have a look at his speech - I posted some downthread.
I'm still reeling from being called a cretin by Godfrey Bloom.
I know. I am amazed he has actually said something sensible for once. :-)
Like a dwarf blowjob, that's a very low blow.
And we wonder why there are so few female posters here...
I think today's thread header is the lowest point for this site in the 8-9 years I have been reading it. Really pathetic.
One can only wonder at what those advertising on the site would think.
Oh please.
Speaking as someone leaning towards Leave, the apparent sense-of-humour bypasses that some of the more committed Leavers seem to have suffered is a bit offputting.
Straw poll of my Labour Party Branch meeting. Based on about 20 members last week 50% leave 30% undecided or WNV 20% Remain
Small sample of course but could you give a few more indicators about the "50% LEAVE" whther or not they are mainly aged 55+ and whether they are AFAIK mainly working class?
Definitely overrepresentative in terms of male, exclusively white and about half my age or older (55). 4 in 18 - 25 age group.
"For Europe, Britain voting to leave will be the beginning of something potentially even more exciting - the democratic liberation of a whole Continent.
If we vote to leave we will have - in the words of a former British Prime Minister - saved our country by our exertions and Europe by our example."
Very different to the spin.
I disagree. "Liberation" has a very different meaning to people on the Continent. It implies liberation from a tyrannical oppressor. Whatever the faults of the EU (and I can list plenty) implying that our departure would be similar to the liberation of countries from the yoke of Nazi or Soviet tyranny is pretty daft, to put it mildly.
One of the best things the EU has done is to provide a shelter and a guide and a model and a helping hand to those countries which did move towards liberation and democracy, from Spain and Portugal to the Eastern European countries.
I'm still reeling from being called a cretin by Godfrey Bloom.
I know. I am amazed he has actually said something sensible for once. :-)
Like a dwarf blowjob, that's a very low blow.
And we wonder why there are so few female posters here...
I think today's thread header is the lowest point for this site in the 8-9 years I have been reading it. Really pathetic.
One can only wonder at what those advertising on the site would think.
Oh please.
Speaking as someone leaning towards Leave, the apparent sense-of-humour bypasses that some of the more committed Leavers seem to have suffered is a bit offputting.
Quite .... even I doubted that some of the fanatic Brexiteers could stoop so low ....
I thought TSE was for REMAIN and it is his comments that have stooped so low.
I think my comment went over your head .... so to speak ....
Did I really say that .... Oh er missus ....
Mine was directed at Danny565 - and I should have been specific.
On BBC is a Party Broadcast from Labour slagging off the Govt. Yep that will help REMAIN....not.
I think Leave's route to victory may be more through the Labour vote than previously thought.
Too many Tories put loyalty to their leader first.
Do have a think about the splits. With the higher turnout for the 55+ year olds then 55/45 Tories going for LEAVE, 95% of UKIP and 33% of the rest of the voters (that actually vote) going for LEAVE, could be enough for 55% LEAVE.
Hmmmm... Can't say I'm best pleased with Vote Leave's goal.
Nor am I.
And implying that you want the whole thing to collapse is pretty stupid too. Just because an organization may not work for us does not mean that it isn't fine for others. Saying or implying such a thing is not going to make post-exit relationships any easier.
Leave is staking everything on immigration. It's the best chance to win. The package as a whole looks very poorly thought-through and will cause significant harm to the City. It basically makes all Remain's direst economic and financial warnings credible. Essentially the Leave side has thrown a Hail Mary.
The Royal College of Midwives have warned today that care for women giving birth could be at risk if we vote to Leave the EU.
Not a joke.
I know I saw it. Their reasons were utter bollocks. Basically all mothers would lose their rights & everything would be more dangerous.
"Too feeble to survive without the EU. Too weak to stand up for women's rights and hygiene. Outside, everyone will be choking on car exhausts, and bashing gays up"
"For Europe, Britain voting to leave will be the beginning of something potentially even more exciting - the democratic liberation of a whole Continent.
If we vote to leave we will have - in the words of a former British Prime Minister - saved our country by our exertions and Europe by our example."
Very different to the spin.
I disagree. "Liberation" has a very different meaning to people on the Continent. It implies liberation from a tyrannical oppressor. Whatever the faults of the EU (and I can list plenty) implying that our departure would be similar to the liberation of countries from the yoke of Nazi or Soviet tyranny is pretty daft, to put it mildly.
One of the best things the EU has done is to provide a shelter and a guide and a model and a helping hand to those countries which did move towards liberation and democracy, from Spain and Portugal to the Eastern European countries.
I think that is well recognised but there is a democratic deficit at the heart of the EU and countries like Italy, The Netherlands, Ireland, Hungary and Greece have all fallen victim to it.
That doesn't mean to say their experiences are identical to our experiences, of course.
I don't think Michael Gove is intending to make the Nazi/Soviet comparison you imply.
The Royal College of Midwives have warned today that care for women giving birth could be at risk if we vote to Leave the EU.
Not a joke.
I know I saw it. Their reasons were utter bollocks. Basically all mothers would lose their rights & everything would be more dangerous.
"Too feeble to survive without the EU. Too weak to stand up for women's rights and hygiene. Outside, everyone will be choking on car exhausts, and bashing gays up"
Pathetic isn't it.
But Leave will never win over those who lack confidence in this country to succeed by itself.
It's the floaters who may opt to Remain in the EU out of despair that Leave should focus on.
Mock the midwives all you like - but if today was midwives warning about pragmatics, versus abstract ideological concepts like democratic liberation from Michael Gove, REMAIN won
The Royal College of Midwives have warned today that care for women giving birth could be at risk if we vote to Leave the EU.
Not a joke.
I know I saw it. Their reasons were utter bollocks. Basically all mothers would lose their rights & everything would be more dangerous.
"Too feeble to survive without the EU. Too weak to stand up for women's rights and hygiene. Outside, everyone will be choking on car exhausts, and bashing gays up"
The Royal College of Midwives have warned today that care for women giving birth could be at risk if we vote to Leave the EU.
Not a joke.
I know I saw it. Their reasons were utter bollocks. Basically all mothers would lose their rights & everything would be more dangerous.
"Too feeble to survive without the EU. Too weak to stand up for women's rights and hygiene. Outside, everyone will be choking on car exhausts, and bashing gays up"
Pathetic isn't it.
Isn't pathetic believing we are so insignificant and so irrelevant that we are incapable of influencing small European countries to help shape the EU's future?
Mock the midwives all you like - but if today was midwives warning about pragmatics, versus abstract ideological concepts like democratic liberation from Michael Gove, REMAIN won
Not mocking midwives, mocking those that run royal college who came out with the most pathetic reasoning for supporting EU. Lots of good reasons to stay in, theirs were laughable.
The Royal College of Midwives have warned today that care for women giving birth could be at risk if we vote to Leave the EU.
Not a joke.
I know I saw it. Their reasons were utter bollocks. Basically all mothers would lose their rights & everything would be more dangerous.
"Too feeble to survive without the EU. Too weak to stand up for women's rights and hygiene. Outside, everyone will be choking on car exhausts, and bashing gays up"
The Royal College of Midwives have warned today that care for women giving birth could be at risk if we vote to Leave the EU.
Not a joke.
I know I saw it. Their reasons were utter bollocks. Basically all mothers would lose their rights & everything would be more dangerous.
"Too feeble to survive without the EU. Too weak to stand up for women's rights and hygiene. Outside, everyone will be choking on car exhausts, and bashing gays up"
Pathetic isn't it.
Isn't pathetic believing we are so insignificant and so irrelevant that we are incapable of influencing small European countries to help shape the EU's future?
Yes because we have been so successful at that over the last 30 years.
The Royal College of Midwives have warned today that care for women giving birth could be at risk if we vote to Leave the EU.
Not a joke.
I know I saw it. Their reasons were utter bollocks. Basically all mothers would lose their rights & everything would be more dangerous.
"Too feeble to survive without the EU. Too weak to stand up for women's rights and hygiene. Outside, everyone will be choking on car exhausts, and bashing gays up"
The Royal College of Midwives have warned today that care for women giving birth could be at risk if we vote to Leave the EU.
Not a joke.
I know I saw it. Their reasons were utter bollocks. Basically all mothers would lose their rights & everything would be more dangerous.
"Too feeble to survive without the EU. Too weak to stand up for women's rights and hygiene. Outside, everyone will be choking on car exhausts, and bashing gays up"
Pathetic isn't it.
Isn't pathetic believing we are so insignificant and so irrelevant that we are incapable of influencing small European countries to help shape the EU's future?
Yes, quite. And we best placed to do that through Leaving.
We've tried for over 40 years to shape the EU's future from inside.
Mock the midwives all you like - but if today was midwives warning about pragmatics, versus abstract ideological concepts like democratic liberation from Michael Gove, REMAIN won
Not mocking midwives, mocking those that run royal college who came out with the most pathetic reasoning for supporting EU. Lots of good reasons to stay in, theirs were laughable.
Has a single Trades Union or business organisation come out for LEAVE ? Even the "neutral" NFU more or less said they prefer to REMAIN.
The Royal College of Midwives have warned today that care for women giving birth could be at risk if we vote to Leave the EU.
Not a joke.
I know I saw it. Their reasons were utter bollocks. Basically all mothers would lose their rights & everything would be more dangerous.
"Too feeble to survive without the EU. Too weak to stand up for women's rights and hygiene. Outside, everyone will be choking on car exhausts, and bashing gays up"
The Royal College of Midwives have warned today that care for women giving birth could be at risk if we vote to Leave the EU.
Not a joke.
I know I saw it. Their reasons were utter bollocks. Basically all mothers would lose their rights & everything would be more dangerous.
"Too feeble to survive without the EU. Too weak to stand up for women's rights and hygiene. Outside, everyone will be choking on car exhausts, and bashing gays up"
Pathetic isn't it.
Isn't pathetic believing we are so insignificant and so irrelevant that we are incapable of influencing small European countries to help shape the EU's future?
Yes because we have been so successful at that over the last 30 years.
An article on CapX about the Leave position that will not be particularly well-received by many posters. The url is actually kinder to the Leave position than the article itself:
Comments
When the UK leaves, we can negotiate as a single country trade deals with those economies that are being denied free access to the EU market. A 1:1 trade deal will be negotiated in a tenth of the time a 27:1 trade deal can be negotiated.
All of which means that trade by the UK outside of the EU - already growing as a percentage - will INCREASE when we leave.
VOTE LEAVE - You know it makes sense.
Just as an aside, thinking this through, this probably means that the hounds of hell will be thrown in now into our referendum by the whole of the EU.
I think Gove relishes The Good Fight but the next 8 weeks now mean absolutely everything to them.
Prepare for incoming..
1. I am not aware of the % but it is a major reason why US and other international firms are happy to be based in London and the share of the EU Financial Services market serviced in London has been increasing. If those firms decided to relocate we would not only lose exports but probably end up importing services currently provided here. I fear London would also lose a significant part of the critical mass which makes it so strong at the moment. If you have a figure I would like to see it.
2. Not sure what you mean by properly. I think there is an argument that it is not "properly" in force yet. The Directives to allow this really started in 1999 and took a very large step forward in 2007.
3. I am not sure. MiFiD II originally had a requirement for an EU licence or regulator but the UK has been pushing for that to be dropped and I understand that is currently the position although it may well change again in the event of Brexit. I think that the risk of this happening in the event that we leave both the EU and the Single Market is significant.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/722460661343744001
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/722460805304856576
"Does this mean they hope Brexit could collapse the whole EU? 'Certainly' - came the answer from senior members of the team, an ambition more bold than anything Outers"
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36084457 can only go by the BBC report that others are quoting that
Hardly some loony Leaver gone rogue is it?
Remain has gone from 1.50 to 1.58 - quite a significant move.
During the same period, Prof Curtice's polling average has gone from 51/49 to 52/48.
http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/
Apart from the polls, I would have thought Sir Lynton's observations would have seen money going on Remain
There's nothing that I'm aware off. It could be seen as a correction, given the continuing close polling.
'1. I am not aware of the % but it is a major reason why US and other international firms are happy to be based in London and the share of the EU Financial Services market serviced in London has been increasing. If those firms decided to relocate we would not only lose exports but probably end up importing services currently provided here. I fear London would also lose a significant part of the critical mass which makes it so strong at the moment. If you have a figure I would like to see it.
2. Not sure what you mean by properly. I think there is an argument that it is not "properly" in force yet. The Directives to allow this really started in 1999 and took a very large step forward in 2007.
3. I am not sure. MiFiD II originally had a requirement for an EU licence or regulator but the UK has been pushing for that to be dropped and I understand that is currently the position although it may well change again in the event of Brexit. I think that the risk of this happening in the event that we leave both the EU and the Single Market is significant.'
---------------------------------------------
David - thanks. But what a lot of gaps in the picture there are, no?
I don't have a precise figure for question 1 either, though have been asking around.
UK financial services exports to the EU most certainly did not start in 1999 or 2000 and indeed were quite significant before that. So how great is the downside risk, really?
Similarly, the big US (and many European) banks came here before the passporting regime as well. I know they say they like it, but that clearly wasn't the original motivation in arriving.
I enclose FYI a report I have seen by PWC which produces rather small estimates of the long-term impact of Brexit on UK financial services GDP, which are moreover somewhat bulked out by questionable assumptions re, immigration and 'uncertainty'. The impacts are of the scale 2-4% by 2030 (depending on the post-Brexit trade regime) of which trade effects only are 0.6-2%. These translate into really small effects on broader UK GDP.
They go on to caveat these results with some hand waving about relocation risks but without anything to back it up really (given who the client was, I imagine there was a bit of to-ing and fro-ing on the drafting based on 'why can't we make the numbers bigger/stress more downside risks' etc.)
https://www.pwc.co.uk/financial-services/assets/Leaving-the-EU-implications-for-the-UK-FS-sector.pdf
Is there a chance a wealthy Leave supporter has put a lot of money down to move the odds - a bit like was rumoured to have happened in that Lib Dem leadership contest quite a few years ago?
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/no-more-sex-if-we-leave-eu-warns-osborne-20160419108115
I am constantly amazed that so few people on this, a betting site, seem to understand this basic fact.
Of course, one cannot expect more from a cat.
Speaking as someone leaning towards Leave, the apparent sense-of-humour bypasses that some of the more committed Leavers seem to have suffered is a bit offputting.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/318826f0-064b-11e6-96e5-f85cb08b0730.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz46IEQq9xx
I'm thinking about that 1.58 but I'm not that tempted. I've been backing Leave up to now. If it tightens a bit more I might change sides.
Clinton 45 .. Trump 39
Clinton 41 .. Cruz 44
Sanders 51 .. Trump 38
Sanders 49 .. Cruz 39
http://www.elon.edu/e-web/elonpoll/041916.xhtml
I was critical of the Leave.eu poster yesterday because it would be out in places where children and those averse to bad language might see it. As such I think it us counter productive. But thus is an adult site dealing with adult themes and as such a bit of risqué language once in a while us really not something to complain about.
.
"Asked to explain whether the government has quietly abandoned its pledge, the Treasury said the UK would probably have to accept the status quo on EU migration as the price of continued access to European markets."
So the pledge to reduce annual immigration to 100,000 was always a .... fill in the missing word. Is it fib, lie, or porky?
Now, you may approve of immigration controls or not, but promising something that you know to be impossible is one of the above three. A whole range of politicians lied in 1975 so when it comes to the EU, they have form. Yet they expect to be believed now.
The Oldies remember, the young have no memory.
"Hey, Gran, that nice Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne say we ought to vote IN, so why aren't you? They never lie, do they?"
Trump 48 .. Cruz 26 .. Kasich 17
Clinton 49 .. Sanders 41
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/morning-consult-24311
"Australians will likely go to the polls in a double dissolution election on July 2, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has confirmed.
Mr Turnbull said the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC) reforms, twice rejected by the Senate, would be "a trigger for a double dissolution election"."
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-19/turnbull-confirms-abcc-will-trigger-double-dissolution-election/7337306
And implying that you want the whole thing to collapse is pretty stupid too. Just because an organization may not work for us does not mean that it isn't fine for others. Saying or implying such a thing is not going to make post-exit relationships any easier.
Did I really say that .... Oh er missus ....
("N" word for benefit of TSE)
One of the best things the EU has done is to provide a shelter and a guide and a model and a helping hand to those countries which did move towards liberation and democracy, from Spain and Portugal to the Eastern European countries.
Too many Tories put loyalty to their leader first.
Not a joke.
Out of curiosity, was it a secret ballot ? If it was, then that would be funny !
Pathetic isn't it.
That doesn't mean to say their experiences are identical to our experiences, of course.
I don't think Michael Gove is intending to make the Nazi/Soviet comparison you imply.
It's the floaters who may opt to Remain in the EU out of despair that Leave should focus on.
We've tried for over 40 years to shape the EU's future from inside.
It hasn't worked.
http://capx.co/the-brexit-fantasy-would-lead-to-a-messy-divorce/