..The two year limit for negotiations is a guide not a hard and fast rule...
No, it's actually a rule. It can be extended with the consent of all parties, but - again - we're back to the problems of getting 27 nations to agree. "Dear UK. We want £5billion to extend the deadline, otherwise no. Signed, Slovakia".
No. Because the result of the Article 50 talks ending is that we leave anyway. At which point we either join EFTA (remaining in the EEA as a result) or we negotiate a new trade agreement which will be done under QMV on the EU side. Either way the net effect is talks continue until an agreement is reached.
Are you seriously contending that talks be extended past the article 50 deadline? Existing arrangements actually lapse at that point. It's not like they hold in place...
Two choices. Either the talks are extended or the UK leaves the EU without agreement.
If the latter case then again two choices. Either the UK immediately joins EFTA and remains in the EEA or the UK and the EU immediately commence talks on a trade agreement which no individual EU member will have the ability to block.
There is no scenario where talks will not continue in one form or another if an agreement has not been reached.
In the second choice of your latter case ("...the UK leaves the EU without agreement...[and]...the UK and the EU immediately commence talks on a trade agreement which no individual EU member will have the ability to block...") you are describing a scenario whereby the UK has left the EU, the existing arrangements have lapsed, and no legal framework is in place, although talks would be underway to create a new one.
That's an extraordinarily risky position to hold. Trade without law is an invitation to the lawless.
Which is why both sides will do all they can to make sure it can't happen. Personally I don't see it as likely. I find it hard to envision a situation where we do not join EFTA given the nature of who will be doing the decision making
The Brexiteers are now Demanding in the event of a Leave vote that Cameron ignore the Sovereign will of the British people, and instead consult with other EU leaders.
Cos that's why they want to vote Leave in the first place.
Oh, wait...
No demands at all. Just a recognition of practical reality. Something you and the other remainders seem to be remarkably short of.
..The two year limit for negotiations is a guide not a hard and fast rule...
No, it's actually a rule. It can be extended with the consent of all parties, but - again - we're back to the problems of getting 27 nations to agree. "Dear UK. We want £5billion to extend the deadline, otherwise no. Signed, Slovakia".
No. Because the result of the Article 50 talks ending is that we leave anyway. At which point we either join EFTA (remaining in the EEA as a result) or we negotiate a new trade agreement which will be done under QMV on the EU side. Either way the net effect is talks continue until an agreement is reached.
Are you seriously contending that talks be extended past the article 50 deadline? Existing arrangements actually lapse at that point. It's not like they hold in place...
Two choices. Either the talks are extended or the UK leaves the EU without agreement.
If the latter case then again two choices. Either the UK immediately joins EFTA and remains in the EEA or the UK and the EU immediately commence talks on a trade agreement which no individual EU member will have the ability to block.
There is no scenario where talks will not continue in one form or another if an agreement has not been reached.
In the second choice of your latter case ("...the UK leaves the EU without agreement...[and]...the UK and the EU immediately commence talks on a trade agreement which no individual EU member will have the ability to block...") you are describing a scenario whereby the UK has left the EU, the existing arrangements have lapsed, and no legal framework is in place, although talks would be underway to create a new one.
That's an extraordinarily risky position to hold. Trade without law is an invitation to the lawless.
Which is why both sides will do all they can to make sure it can't happen. Personally I don't see it as likely. I find it hard to envision a situation where we do not join EFTA given the nature of who will be doing the decision making
It's also not right. Even if there was some hiatus as suggested, trade would default to taking place under WTO rules. There is no circumstance under which 'trade without law' would occur.
'Actually, I think you are thinking of the Euro rather than the ERM. It's worth reading Lord Lawson's book, The View from Number Eleven, for a really good feel for why people (including him) wanted to be in the ERM, and all the pros and cons.'
Oh there were certainly some very over-the-top warnings about what would happen if we left the ERM, most notably by Major - along the lines of the Pound turning into something akin to the Ukrainian Karbovanets. So Richard does have a point.
On the backing for the ERM, Richard is also right that a huge chunk of the economic and political establishment lined up behind it and were proved badly wrong.
Some of them have made up various mea non culpas over the years, including the rubbish about 'the wrong rate' or even claims that ERM membership sort of worked because inflation fell (ever so hard to achieve if you have a recession). Others have repented their sins.
I think there's a couple of different points here.
Firstly, we were hardly in the ERM for very long - less than two years from joining in autumn of 1990, and we left in summer of 1992. As we were simply going back to where we were before, the idea that Sterling would suddenly become a third world country is a bit absurd.
Secondly, as Lord Lawson explains in the View from Number Eleven, the ERM was not - for Britain - about trade or anything like that. The Treasury Briefing packs barely mention it. On the contrary, it was about the problem the UK had with inflation. We joined in October 1990 because inflation had got into the double digits, and it was causing us to have to hike rates (which led to terrible problems for over-levered house owners). Joining the ERM - it was considered - would help the UK government fight inflation, just as it had helped Italy fight inflation.
Mr. Viewcode, do you think the EU would be so vindictive, obstructive or incompetent as to wish current arrangements to lapse without even interim arrangements in place?
To answer the question you asked: i would hope not.
But I can think of several scenarios where it might happen * a EU country extorts a price for agreement that we are not willing to pay * a EU government with a small majority/plurality is forced by a Eurosceptic party into a referendum on the agreement and the electorate objects to it * a EU government is forced to have a referendum on the agreement and the electorate rejects it because it wants the UK to stay in the EU * a EU government objects to the agreement because the government is made up of idiots. * a EU government objects to the agreement because it wants to hurt the UK
Let's call those scenarios "Hungary 2018", "Netherlands 2018", "Ireland 2018", "Greece 2018" and "France 2018".
A single EU country could not do that. The decision on an agreement is by QMV. In effect it would take a substantial number of EU countries and the UK to all be idiots for that to happen.
As if anyone needs them, but a couple of thoughts on the whole Brexit thing (disclosure: I probably will vote Leave but not 100% sure yet):
- EU politicians really need to shut their mouths about what will happen to the UK if there is a Brexit vote. I found myself foaming at the mouth (luckily, not literally) at Macron's comments and it just pushed me more to Leave; - I think this is one of those issues where people do not genuinely know what is best and so ask friends and trusted people for advice to cut through the noise - I have been surprised by the number of friends asking me how I would vote but not to tell me whether they disagreed or not but almost (it seemed) they wanted some sort of guidance. - I ended up in A&E last week in Devon (all ok, running injury) - chatting with the doctor (Home Counties, Conservative voter but not keen on Cameron and definitely not on Hunt), he said he will probably vote for Brexit, mainly because it would give Cameron a kick up the backside. He reckons most people in that part of the country would also vote for it. Mind you, he seemed to treat the issue more as a side issue than of national importance, which made me think Brexit had an advantage in that their supporters are more enthused; - I work in the City in the front office - I am finding more and more of my colleagues are saying they will vote out. Remain has no real defenders except those of my colleagues who are actually from other EU countries (apart from the Irish - they don't seem to care and think things will go on regardless).
I think what I might have been saying in 1992 was that we went in to the ERM at the wrong level and so brought the crisis on ourselves. Was there any alternative to the decision Lamont was forced into?
The self-serving establishment is on both sides of the referendum argument.
Except the UK didn't enter the ERM at the wrong rate. We know this because the entire political and business establishment told us so.
There was no option to being in the ERM and only fruitcakes and loons claimed otherwise. We know this because the entire political and business establishment told us so.
And if for some reason Britain left the ERM then total economic disaster would happen - the car factories would shut down, the City would relocate to Frankfurt, there would be no inward investment, the pound would become as worthless as the Ukrainian Coupon, three million people would lose their jobs and the rest of the EU would ban British exports. We know this because the entire political and business establishment told us so.
As to the establishment being on both sides of the referendum ? Please don't pretend that to be the case.
So cabinet ministers, leading businessmen, newspaper editors and proprietors are no longer part of the establishment? That is news to me.
I think you'll find a fair few people - including shadow chancellor John Smith - were dubious about the rate at which the UK had entered the ERM.
There were quite a few people who were wise after the event regarding the ERM but I don't recall any of them saying that Britain should leave it while it was in it.
As to the establishment I'll look forward to the propaganda sheet coming from the government telling us why Britain should leave the EU.
Or perhaps when Obama tells us that Britain should vote Leave.
Or a thousand others we could all name.
Please don't embarrass yourself in claiming that the establishment doesn't support Remain.
Anyway I have things to do so a good evening to you.
Britain leaving the ERM will not only stall economic activity and investment in the UK. That is one of the problems. If it were just us affected by this vote, then it would not be so bad. But it is likely to trigger reactions well beyond our shores - so meaning the impact will be much greater and longer-lasting.
No, I didn't say that.
Really ???
Are you saying that in 1992 you backed Bill Cash and Teresa Gorman and not the entire political and business establishment.
If you seriously believe that the UK voting to leave the EU will have no impact beyond these shores at a time when the global economy is feeling pretty fragile then we will just have to agree to disagree.
Everything has impact but it will be neither the gotterdamarung nor the utopia claimed by partisans of each side.
I've heard too many predictions of great events or great disasters if such or such a thing happens.
They rarely do.
The big changes usually come unexpectedly.
I am saying that in 1992 I was 24 and living in Spain. I didn't follow events at all.
As for the EU referendum, Brexit won't presage catastrophe, but I do think it will have a negative short to medium turn negative effect here and elsewhere, and I don't see the benefits that inflicting this on ourselves will bring. Why bother? is more my view.
I find your attitude confusing to say the least. It's like eating all the ingredients before you bake the cake.
My attitude is that the four freedoms EU membership deliver are a net benefit to the UK and so are not worth risking for the uncertainty even Leave voters agree Brexit would deliver. I am not bothered about pooling sovereignty given that this referendum shows that ultimately it is in our hands.
That is like a junkie claiming they could give up anytime but don't want to.
The Brexiteers are now Demanding in the event of a Leave vote that Cameron ignore the Sovereign will of the British people, and instead consult with other EU leaders.
Cos that's why they want to vote Leave in the first place.
Oh, wait...
I agree. It's a bit of a bugger's muddle. I don't know if this stems from genuine confusion and lack of foresight, or if they're getting their excuses in early - actually to shift the blame to Cameron and the Remainers when Brexit goes all ends up. Either way, it re-enforces my hunch that they're more keen on enjoying the process than thinking about the actual result.
Nope it simply proves you don't bother to read what we have been writing.
Cameron has made no plans if we leave except to go on TV and invoke article 50.
That's not even credible as a position
This is the position Cameron has stated. Why are you so afraid of it?
I'm not afraid of it as I said.
No need to keep repeating a point Ive already answered.
Nothing on his CCHQ crib sheet so he has to keep repeating ad nauseum
He's now got to a point where the scare stories are counter productive. A lot of the leavers on here have run businesses, traded across Europe, seen it done it got the T shirt.
There's no point trying to frighten them since they manage risk every day as part of their jobs and are more than comfortable in taking their own view.
To date I'm still waiting for something which tells me why I'll be better off in the EU ten years from now than taking my chances outside it. It's a long wait.
I agree, unless we are for Euro and more integration it is pointless. However the scaremongering will work on many, unfortunately too many.
It will, but I can't help but be impressed that after nearly two months of it our fellow countrymen, both north and south of the border, are still saying they are 50:50, or thereabouts.
We are not easily frightened.
Casino, One can only hope you have more fortitude than that shown in Scotland.
MG
I do not think so, there will be a reluctant remain.
My father was a definte leave voter, but he told me today, that he has changed his mind after speaking to my brother. Who said to him, that without membership of the EU all the the rights won by workers over the years, would be swept away if we left, by continual Conservative Government.. Corbyn has more impact than I imagined.
How sad - traduced by a lie.
I agree. I was flogging a dead horse, stating we should be proud of our own democracy and faith in the British people .
I think what I might have been saying in 1992 was that we went in to the ERM at the wrong level and so brought the crisis on ourselves. Was there any alternative to the decision Lamont was forced into?
The self-serving establishment is on both sides of the referendum argument.
Except the UK didn't enter the ERM at the wrong rate. We know this because the entire political and business establishment told us so.
There was no option to being in the ERM and only fruitcakes and loons claimed otherwise. We know this because the entire political and business establishment told us so.
And if for some reason Britain left the ERM then total economic disaster would happen - the car factories would shut down, the City would relocate to Frankfurt, there would be no inward investment, the pound would become as worthless as the Ukrainian Coupon, three million people would lose their jobs and the rest of the EU would ban British exports. We know this because the entire political and business establishment told us so.
As to the establishment being on both sides of the referendum ? Please don't pretend that to be the case.
So cabinet ministers, leading businessmen, newspaper editors and proprietors are no longer part of the establishment? That is news to me.
I think you'll find a fair few people - including shadow chancellor John Smith - were dubious about the rate at which the UK had entered the ERM.
There were quite a few people who were wise after the event regarding the ERM but I don't recall any of them saying that Britain should leave it while it was in it.
As to the establishment I'll look forward to the propaganda sheet coming from the government telling us why Britain should leave the EU.
Or perhaps when Obama tells us that Britain should vote Leave.
Or a thousand others we could all name.
Please don't embarrass yourself in claiming that the establishment doesn't support Remain.
Anyway I have things to do so a good evening to you.
Has Robert Mugabe indicated which side he supports? I would have him down as Leave, as he previously said that the English speaking nations should stick together, iirc.
Cameron has made no plans if we leave except to go on TV and invoke article 50.
That's not even credible as a position
This is the position Cameron has stated. Why are you so afraid of it?
I'm not afraid of it as I said.
No need to keep repeating a point Ive already answered.
Nothing on his CCHQ crib sheet so he has to keep repeating ad nauseum
He's now got to a point where the scare stories are counter productive. A lot of the leavers on here have run businesses, traded across Europe, seen it done it got the T shirt.
There's no point trying to frighten them since they manage risk every day as part of their jobs and are more than comfortable in taking their own view.
To date I'm still waiting for something which tells me why I'll be better off in the EU ten years from now than taking my chances outside it. It's a long wait.
I agree, unless we are for Euro and more integration it is pointless. However the scaremongering will work on many, unfortunately too many.
It will, but I can't help but be impressed that after nearly two months of it our fellow countrymen, both north and south of the border, are still saying they are 50:50, or thereabouts.
We are not easily frightened.
Casino, One can only hope you have more fortitude than that shown in Scotland.
Ultimately, I doubt it Malcolm, but we have to stick to what we believe in, don't we?
That is the problem many politicians on both side of the debate, are not sticking to what they believe in. Gove seems to me , to be a symbolic exception.
As if anyone needs them, but a couple of thoughts on the whole Brexit thing (disclosure: I probably will vote Leave but not 100% sure yet):
- EU politicians really need to shut their mouths about what will happen to the UK if there is a Brexit vote. I found myself foaming at the mouth (luckily, not literally) at Macron's comments and it just pushed me more to Leave; - I think this is one of those issues where people do not genuinely know what is best and so ask friends and trusted people for advice to cut through the noise - I have been surprised by the number of friends asking me how I would vote but not to tell me whether they disagreed or not but almost (it seemed) they wanted some sort of guidance. - I ended up in A&E last week in Devon (all ok, running injury) - chatting with the doctor (Home Counties, Conservative voter but not keen on Cameron and definitely not on Hunt), he said he will probably vote for Brexit, mainly because it would give Cameron a kick up the backside. He reckons most people in that part of the country would also vote for it. Mind you, he seemed to treat the issue more as a side issue than of national importance, which made me think Brexit had an advantage in that their supporters are more enthused; - I work in the City in the front office - I am finding more and more of my colleagues are saying they will vote out. Remain has no real defenders except those of my colleagues who are actually from other EU countries (apart from the Irish - they don't seem to care and think things will go on regardless).
V interesting and certainly worth sharing. Especially the guidance bit.
Apologies because I'm going to have to leave for the moment but as a practitioner, what are your views on being on the outside of the MiFID II (and III & IV...!!!) negotiations?
I will pick up your response later and look forward to seeing it.
The practical reality is that Cameron would invoke Article 50.
I am not the one denying it...
Neither am I. What I have said is that he will delay a few days (my quote I believe was two weeks is most likely) and in that time will discuss with his cabinet colleagues and with other European leaders the basic principles and systems on which the negotiations will take place.
That is if he has not already done so which of course he claims not to have done.
Anything else would be plain dumb and a dereliction of duty on his part. As I said earlier I clearly have more faith in his abilities and good sense than you do.
Has Robert Mugabe indicated which side he supports? I would have him down as Leave, as he previously said that the English speaking nations should stick together, iirc.
Mugabe a definite Remainer
David Cameron is overseeing "spiv Robert Mugabe antics" in the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, according to a former vice-chairman of the Conservative Party.
In an extraordinary attack on the government’s decision to spend £9.3 million of taxpayers’ money on a glossy 16-page booklet setting out the case to stay in the EU, Tory MP Nigel Evans likened Downing Street’s campaign to the African dictator’s continued attempt to cling to power.
'Actually, I think you are thinking of the Euro rather than the ERM. It's worth reading Lord Lawson's book, The View from Number Eleven, for a really good feel for why people (including him) wanted to be in the ERM, and all the pros and cons.'
Oh there were certainly some very over-the-top warnings about what would happen if we left the ERM, most notably by Major - along the lines of the Pound turning into something akin to the Ukrainian Karbovanets. So Richard does have a point.
On the backing for the ERM, Richard is also right that a huge chunk of the economic and political establishment lined up behind it and were proved badly wrong.
Some of them have made up various mea non culpas over the years, including the rubbish about 'the wrong rate' or even claims that ERM membership sort of worked because inflation fell (ever so hard to achieve if you have a recession). Others have repented their sins.
I think there's a couple of different points here.
Firstly, we were hardly in the ERM for very long - less than two years from joining in autumn of 1990, and we left in summer of 1992. As we were simply going back to where we were before, the idea that Sterling would suddenly become a third world country is a bit absurd.
Secondly, as Lord Lawson explains in the View from Number Eleven, the ERM was not - for Britain - about trade or anything like that. The Treasury Briefing packs barely mention it. On the contrary, it was about the problem the UK had with inflation. We joined in October 1990 because inflation had got into the double digits, and it was causing us to have to hike rates (which led to terrible problems for over-levered house owners). Joining the ERM - it was considered - would help the UK government fight inflation, just as it had helped Italy fight inflation.
1. 'the idea that Sterling would suddenly become a third world country is a bit absurd.'
Yes indeed. But Major & Co. said it anyway.
And of course to extend the analogy the UK was an advanced economy before it joined the EC/EU as well
2. Re. the ERM
Yes - it was about inflation. BUT, not longer after we joined the economy fell off a cliff and pretty soon the problem was not inflation but recession. And we then found we couldn't cut interest rates enough to fight recession because of ERM membership.
That turn of events was precisely what some of us had warned about from the start, i.e. that the ERM would be a straightjacket that might work under some circumstances, but assuredly wouldn't under others. There was no such thing as a 'right rate'.
Cameron has made no plans if we leave except to go on TV and invoke article 50.
That's not even credible as a position
This is the position Cameron has stated. Why are you so afraid of it?
I'm not afraid of it as I said.
No need to keep repeating a point Ive already answered.
Nothing on his CCHQ crib sheet so he has to keep repeating ad nauseum
He's now got to a point where the scare stories are counter productive. A lot of the leavers on here have run businesses, traded across Europe, seen it done it got the T shirt.
There's no point trying to frighten them since they manage risk every day as part of their jobs and are more than comfortable in taking their own view.
To date I'm still waiting for something which tells me why I'll be better off in the EU ten years from now than taking my chances outside it. It's a long wait.
I agree, unless we are for Euro and more integration it is pointless. However the scaremongering will work on many, unfortunately too many.
It will, but I can't help but be impressed that after nearly two months of it our fellow countrymen, both north and south of the border, are still saying they are 50:50, or thereabouts.
We are not easily frightened.
Casino, One can only hope you have more fortitude than that shown in Scotland.
MG
I do not think so, there will be a reluctant remain.
My father was a definte leave voter, but he told me today, that he has changed his mind after speaking to my brother. Who said to him, that without membership of the EU all the the rights won by workers over the years, would be swept away if we left, by continual Conservative Government.. Corbyn has more impact than I imagined.
But that is correct. Remember if LEAVE wins, it also confirms the ascendency of the Tory Right and UKIP. All sorts of workers rights would be in jeopardy.
In fact, those are amongst the reasons why the Leavers want Brexit.
Yes but you are only a Remainer today. Tomorrow or next week you will be a Leaver again.
If past experience is anything to go by anyway.
I agree. Just another party follower, give him his blue rosette. Only thing that makes them happy. You would not want him on your side in 1642.
Nonsense, when it is in the best interests of the country/is a matter of national importance, I always put the country ahead of the best interests of the Party/oppose what Cameron would like me to do.
The chance of Remain winning is more than 67%. This is because some dyed-in-the-wool Leavers have pumped in a lot of money.
No. The betting odds reflect group think and orthodox analysis that referendums tend to favour the status quo. Priced in is an anticipated swing to REMAIN as polling day approaches. As time goes on, and if the polls remain static (i.e. no swingback), then the odds on LEAVE will progressively shorten. It is somewhat analogous to the time decay on an option - long-dated options are less sensitive to the price of the underlying asset. This far out even a sustained move to LEAVE in the polls would have only a modest impact on the odds.
Cameron has made no plans if we leave except to go on TV and invoke article 50.
That's not even credible as a position
This is the position Cameron has stated. Why are you so afraid of it?
I'm not afraid of it as I said.
No need to keep repeating a point Ive already answered.
Nothing on his CCHQ crib sheet so he has to keep repeating ad nauseum
He's now got to a point where the scare stories are counter productive. A lot of the leavers on here have run businesses, traded across Europe, seen it done it got the T shirt.
There's no point trying to frighten them since they manage risk every day as part of their jobs and are more than comfortable in taking their own view.
To date I'm still waiting for something which tells me why I'll be better off in the EU ten years from now than taking my chances outside it. It's a long wait.
I agree, unless we are for Euro and more integration it is pointless. However the scaremongering will work on many, unfortunately too many.
It will, but I can't help but be impressed that after nearly two months of it our fellow countrymen, both north and south of the border, are still saying they are 50:50, or thereabouts.
We are not easily frightened.
Casino, One can only hope you have more fortitude than that shown in Scotland.
MG
I do not think so, there will be a reluctant remain.
My father was a definte leave voter, but he told me today, that he has changed his mind after speaking to my brother. Who said to him, that without membership of the EU all the the rights won by workers over the years, would be swept away if we left, by continual Conservative Government.. Corbyn has more impact than I imagined.
But that is correct. Remember if LEAVE wins, it also confirms the ascendency of the Tory Right and UKIP. All sorts of workers rights would be in jeopardy.
In fact, those are amongst the reasons why the Leavers want Brexit.
Surbiton. I do not think remain will have to worry. However I bet they wish they had compulsory voting.
Cameron has made no plans if we leave except to go on TV and invoke article 50.
That's not even credible as a position
This is the position Cameron has stated. Why are you so afraid of it?
I'm not afraid of it as I said.
No need to keep repeating a point Ive already answered.
Nothing on his CCHQ crib sheet so he has to keep repeating ad nauseum
He's now got to a point where the scare stories are counter productive. A lot of the leavers on here have run businesses, traded across Europe, seen it done it got the T shirt.
There's no point trying to frighten them since they manage risk every day as part of their jobs and are more than comfortable in taking their own view.
To date I'm still waiting for something which tells me why I'll be better off in the EU ten years from now than taking my chances outside it. It's a long wait.
I agree, unless we are for Euro and more integration it is pointless. However the scaremongering will work on many, unfortunately too many.
It will, but I can't help but be impressed that after nearly two months of it our fellow countrymen, both north and south of the border, are still saying they are 50:50, or thereabouts.
We are not easily frightened.
Casino, One can only hope you have more fortitude than that shown in Scotland.
MG
I do not think so, there will be a reluctant remain.
My father was a definte leave voter, but he told me today, that he has changed his mind after speaking to my brother. Who said to him, that without membership of the EU all the the rights won by workers over the years, would be swept away if we left, by continual Conservative Government.. Corbyn has more impact than I imagined.
How sad - traduced by a lie.
I agree. I was flogging a dead horse, stating we should be proud of our own democracy and faith in the British people .
At some point over the next few weeks it might be worth revisiting the discussion with him and pointing out that many of the workers rights were introduced before we ever joined the EU. Sick Pay, Paid Holidays and Equal Pay are all examples.
Cameron has made no plans if we leave except to go on TV and invoke article 50.
That's not even credible as a position
This is the position Cameron has stated. Why are you so afraid of it?
I'm not afraid of it as I said.
No need to keep repeating a point Ive already answered.
Nothing on his CCHQ crib sheet so he has to keep repeating ad nauseum
He's now got to a point where the scare stories are counter productive. A lot of the leavers on here have run businesses, traded across Europe, seen it done it got the T shirt.
There's no point trying to frighten them since they manage risk every day as part of their jobs and are more than comfortable in taking their own view.
To date I'm still waiting for something which tells me why I'll be better off in the EU ten years from now than taking my chances outside it. It's a long wait.
I agree, unless we are for Euro and more integration it is pointless. However the scaremongering will work on many, unfortunately too many.
It will, but I can't help but be impressed that after nearly two months of it our fellow countrymen, both north and south of the border, are still saying they are 50:50, or thereabouts.
We are not easily frightened.
Casino, One can only hope you have more fortitude than that shown in Scotland.
MG
I do not think so, there will be a reluctant remain.
My father was a definte leave voter, but he told me today, that he has changed his mind after speaking to my brother. Who said to him, that without membership of the EU all the the rights won by workers over the years, would be swept away if we left, by continual Conservative Government.. Corbyn has more impact than I imagined.
How sad - traduced by a lie.
I agree. I was flogging a dead horse, stating we should be proud of our own democracy and faith in the British people .
At some point over the next few weeks it might be worth revisiting the discussion with him and pointing out that many of the workers rights were introduced before we ever joined the EU. Sick Pay, Paid Holidays and Equal Pay are all examples.
I agree Richard. I am sure the discussion, will come up again.
The Brexiteers are now Demanding in the event of a Leave vote that Cameron ignore the Sovereign will of the British people, and instead consult with other EU leaders.
Cos that's why they want to vote Leave in the first place.
Oh, wait...
Your posts even sound like a tweet. It's quite bizarre how you belong to a world where saying 'Oh, wait...' on the end of something counts as thought.
Cameron has made no plans if we leave except to go on TV and invoke article 50.
That's not even credible as a position
This is the position Cameron has stated. Why are you so afraid of it?
I'm not afraid of it as I said.
No need to keep repeating a point Ive already answered.
Nothing on his CCHQ crib sheet so he has to keep repeating ad nauseum
He's now got to a point where the scare stories are counter productive. A lot of the leavers on here have run businesses, traded across Europe, seen it done it got the T shirt.
There's no point trying to frighten them since they manage risk every day as part of their jobs and are more than comfortable in taking their own view.
To date I'm still waiting for something which tells me why I'll be better off in the EU ten years from now than taking my chances outside it. It's a long wait.
I agree, unless we are for Euro and more integration it is pointless. However the scaremongering will work on many, unfortunately too many.
It will, but I can't help but be impressed that after nearly two months of it our fellow countrymen, both north and south of the border, are still saying they are 50:50, or thereabouts.
We are not easily frightened.
Casino, One can only hope you have more fortitude than that shown in Scotland.
MG
I do not think so, there will be a reluctant remain.
My father was a definte leave voter, but he told me today, that he has changed his mind after speaking to my brother. Who said to him, that without membership of the EU all the the rights won by workers over the years, would be swept away if we left, by continual Conservative Government.. Corbyn has more impact than I imagined.
How sad - traduced by a lie.
I agree. I was flogging a dead horse, stating we should be proud of our own democracy and faith in the British people .
At some point over the next few weeks it might be worth revisiting the discussion with him and pointing out that many of the workers rights were introduced before we ever joined the EU. Sick Pay, Paid Holidays and Equal Pay are all examples.
The EU introduced many more workers rights and strengthened some. Part time workers rights , for example.
But a future Tory government could take them away too. If we are in the EU, they can't.
Cameron has made no plans if we leave except to go on TV and invoke article 50.
That's not even credible as a position
This is the position Cameron has stated. Why are you so afraid of it?
I'm not afraid of it as I said.
No need to keep repeating a point Ive already answered.
Nothing on his CCHQ crib sheet so he has to keep repeating ad nauseum
He's now got to a point where the scare stories are counter productive. A lot of the leavers on here have run businesses, traded across Europe, seen it done it got the T shirt.
There's no point trying to frighten them since they manage risk every day as part of their jobs and are more than comfortable in taking their own view.
To date I'm still waiting for something which tells me why I'll be better off in the EU ten years from now than taking my chances outside it. It's a long wait.
I agree, unless we are for Euro and more integration it is pointless. However the scaremongering will work on many, unfortunately too many.
It will, but I can't help but be impressed that after nearly two months of it our fellow countrymen, both north and south of the border, are still saying they are 50:50, or thereabouts.
We are not easily frightened.
Casino, One can only hope you have more fortitude than that shown in Scotland.
MG
I do not think so, there will be a reluctant remain.
My father was a definte leave voter, but he told me today, that he has changed his mind after speaking to my brother. Who said to him, that without membership of the EU all the the rights won by workers over the years, would be swept away if we left, by continual Conservative Government.. Corbyn has more impact than I imagined.
But that is correct. Remember if LEAVE wins, it also confirms the ascendency of the Tory Right and UKIP. All sorts of workers rights would be in jeopardy.
In fact, those are amongst the reasons why the Leavers want Brexit.
Surbiton. I do not think remain will have to worry. However I bet they wish they had compulsory voting.
True. But I wish that was always the case. The choice of June 23rd really surprised me. Almost ideal for Leavers.
Cameron has made no plans if we leave except to go on TV and invoke article 50.
That's not even credible as a position
This is the position Cameron has stated. Why are you so afraid of it?
I'm not afraid of it as I said.
No need to keep repeating a point Ive already answered.
Nothing on his CCHQ crib sheet so he has to keep repeating ad nauseum
He's now got to a point where the scare stories are counter productive. A lot of the leavers on here have run businesses, traded across Europe, seen it done it got the T shirt.
There's no point trying to frighten them since they manage risk every day as part of their jobs and are more than comfortable in taking their own view.
To date I'm still waiting for something which tells me why I'll be better off in the EU ten years from now than taking my chances outside it. It's a long wait.
I agree, unless we are for Euro and more integration it is pointless. However the scaremongering will work on many, unfortunately too many.
It will, but I can't help but be impressed that after nearly two months of it our fellow countrymen, both north and south of the border, are still saying they are 50:50, or thereabouts.
We are not easily frightened.
Casino, One can only hope you have more fortitude than that shown in Scotland.
MG
I do not think so, there will be a reluctant remain.
My father was a definte leave voter, but he told me today, that he has changed his mind after speaking to my brother. Who said to him, that without membership of the EU all the the rights won by workers over the years, would be swept away if we left, by continual Conservative Government.. Corbyn has more impact than I imagined.
But that is correct. Remember if LEAVE wins, it also confirms the ascendency of the Tory Right and UKIP. All sorts of workers rights would be in jeopardy.
In fact, those are amongst the reasons why the Leavers want Brexit.
The Tory right who've just had a prominent member resign because the 'Tory left' were kicking the disabled to maintain middle class perks?
James Delingpole @JamesDelingpole James Delingpole Retweeted Red Zebra Maybe it's time we scrapped the Rhodes scholarship if it wastes Oxford's time with losers like this guy...
Yes but you are only a Remainer today. Tomorrow or next week you will be a Leaver again.
If past experience is anything to go by anyway.
I agree. Just another party follower, give him his blue rosette. Only thing that makes them happy. You would not want him on your side in 1642.
Nonsense, when it is in the best interests of the country/is a matter of national importance, I always put the country ahead of the best interests of the Party/oppose what Cameron would like me to do.
#Tories4AV
Glad to hear it. That should be the overriding importance. Not here today gone tomorrow politicians.
Cameron has made no plans if we leave except to go on TV and invoke article 50.
That's not even credible as a position
This is the position Cameron has stated. Why are you so afraid of it?
I'm not afraid of it as I said.
No need to keep repeating a point Ive already answered.
Nothing on his CCHQ crib sheet so he has to keep repeating ad nauseum
He's now got to a point where the scare stories are counter productive. A lot of the leavers on here have run businesses, traded across Europe, seen it done it got the T shirt.
There's no point trying to frighten them since they manage risk every day as part of their jobs and are more than comfortable in taking their own view.
To date I'm still waiting for something which tells me why I'll be better off in the EU ten years from now than taking my chances outside it. It's a long wait.
I agree, unless we are for Euro and more integration it is pointless. However the scaremongering will work on many, unfortunately too many.
It will, but I can't help but be impressed that after nearly two months of it our fellow countrymen, both north and south of the border, are still saying they are 50:50, or thereabouts.
We are not easily frightened.
Casino, One can only hope you have more fortitude than that shown in Scotland.
MG
I do not think so, there will be a reluctant remain.
My father was a definte leave voter, but he told me today, that he has changed his mind after speaking to my brother. Who said to him, that without membership of the EU all the the rights won by workers over the years, would be swept away if we left, by continual Conservative Government.. Corbyn has more impact than I imagined.
But that is correct. Remember if LEAVE wins, it also confirms the ascendency of the Tory Right and UKIP. All sorts of workers rights would be in jeopardy.
In fact, those are amongst the reasons why the Leavers want Brexit.
No, if Leave wins it means that enough Labourites have seen sense and joined me in voting Leave. It might mean that Tory governments have the freedom to try and repeal workers' rights, but it will also allow a future Labour-led government to enact whatever Socialist policies it can get through parliament. Democracy, sovereignty, accountability, freedom.
This is the position Cameron has stated. Why are you so afraid of it?
I'm not afraid of it as I said.
No need to keep repeating a point Ive already answered.
Nothing on his CCHQ crib sheet so he has to keep repeating ad nauseum
He's now got to a point where the scare stories are counter productive. A lot of the leavers on here have run businesses, traded across Europe, seen it done it got the T shirt.
There's no point trying to frighten them since they manage risk every day as part of their jobs and are more than comfortable in taking their own view.
To date I'm still waiting for something which tells me why I'll be better off in the EU ten years from now than taking my chances outside it. It's a long wait.
I agree, unless we are for Euro and more integration it is pointless. However the scaremongering will work on many, unfortunately too many.
It will, but I can't help but be impressed that after nearly two months of it our fellow countrymen, both north and south of the border, are still saying they are 50:50, or thereabouts.
We are not easily frightened.
Casino, One can only hope you have more fortitude than that shown in Scotland.
MG
I do not think so, there will be a reluctant remain.
My father was a definte leave voter, but he told me today, that he has changed his mind after speaking to my brother. Who said to him, that without membership of the EU all the the rights won by workers over the years, would be swept away if we left, by continual Conservative Government.. Corbyn has more impact than I imagined.
How sad - traduced by a lie.
I agree. I was flogging a dead horse, stating we should be proud of our own democracy and faith in the British people .
At some point over the next few weeks it might be worth revisiting the discussion with him and pointing out that many of the workers rights were introduced before we ever joined the EU. Sick Pay, Paid Holidays and Equal Pay are all examples.
The EU introduced many more workers rights and strengthened some. Part time workers rights , for example.
But a future Tory government could take them away too. If we are in the EU, they can't.
From this thread you would think that a Leave result was a foregone conclusion.
And what proportion of voters have even heard of Article 50, ffs.
Why? Who has suggested that?
Why else would we be discussing the minutiae of what Cameron will do minute by minute after a Leave vote?
The only question worth considering at this point is whether he will resign or not. Everything else is angels on pinheads.
Cameron will not resign; he likes being PM and still, I suspect, "thinks he is rather good at it"!
It isn't up to him. Were Leave to win, and Dave doesn't quit, I'd hate to be Graham Brady's postman
Tories are knifing each other now. No love lost. The fact is that a referendum is taking place only because eof Cameron. Without Cameron, the Tories would not have won a majority.
The Brexiteers are now Demanding in the event of a Leave vote that Cameron ignore the Sovereign will of the British people, and instead consult with other EU leaders.
Cos that's why they want to vote Leave in the first place.
Oh, wait...
I agree. It's a bit of a bugger's muddle. I don't know if this stems from genuine confusion and lack of foresight, or if they're getting their excuses in early - actually to shift the blame to Cameron and the Remainers when Brexit goes all ends up. Either way, it re-enforces my hunch that they're more keen on enjoying the process than thinking about the actual result.
Nope it simply proves you don't bother to read what we have been writing.
It's only fair; I can't say I ever bother to read what he's written either.
Mr. Viewcode, do you think the EU would be so vindictive, obstructive or incompetent as to wish current arrangements to lapse without even interim arrangements in place?
To answer the question you asked: i would hope not.
But I can think of several scenarios where it might happen * a EU country extorts a price for agreement that we are not willing to pay * a EU government with a small majority/plurality is forced by a Eurosceptic party into a referendum on the agreement and the electorate objects to it * a EU government is forced to have a referendum on the agreement and the electorate rejects it because it wants the UK to stay in the EU * a EU government objects to the agreement because the government is made up of idiots. * a EU government objects to the agreement because it wants to hurt the UK
Let's call those scenarios "Hungary 2018", "Netherlands 2018", "Ireland 2018", "Greece 2018" and "France 2018".
A single EU country could not do that. The decision on an agreement is by QMV. In effect it would take a substantial number of EU countries and the UK to all be idiots for that to happen.
True, and ThreeQuidder already pulled me up on it (the QMV thing, not the prevalence of idiots). See my reply downthread.
Cameron has made no plans if we leave except to go on TV and invoke article 50.
That's not even credible as a position
This is the position Cameron has stated. Why are you so afraid of it?
I'm not afraid of it as I said.
No need to keep repeating a point Ive already answered.
Nothing on his CCHQ crib sheet so he has to keep repeating ad nauseum
He's now got to a point where the scare stories are counter productive. A lot of the leavers on here have run businesses, traded across Europe, seen it done it got the T shirt.
There's no point trying to frighten them since they manage risk every day as part of their jobs and are more than comfortable in taking their own view.
To date I'm still waiting for something which tells me why I'll be better off in the EU ten years from now than taking my chances outside it. It's a long wait.
I agree, unless we are for Euro and more integration it is pointless. However the scaremongering will work on many, unfortunately too many.
It will, but I can't help but be impressed that after nearly two months of it our fellow countrymen, both north and south of the border, are still saying they are 50:50, or thereabouts.
We are not easily frightened.
Casino, One can only hope you have more fortitude than that shown in Scotland.
MG
I do not think so, there will be a reluctant remain.
My father was a definte leave voter, but he told me today, that he has changed his mind after speaking to my brother. Who said to him, that without membership of the EU all the the rights won by workers over the years, would be swept away if we left, by continual Conservative Government.. Corbyn has more impact than I imagined.
But that is correct. Remember if LEAVE wins, it also confirms the ascendency of the Tory Right and UKIP. All sorts of workers rights would be in jeopardy.
In fact, those are amongst the reasons why the Leavers want Brexit.
No, if Leave wins it means that enough Labourites have seen sense and joined me in voting Leave. It might mean that Tory governments have the freedom to try and repeal workers' rights, but it will also allow a future Labour-led government to enact whatever Socialist policies it can get through parliament. Democracy, sovereignty, accountability, freedom.
You expect a receptive House of Lords will pass all those "socialist" legislation !
Cameron has made no plans if we leave except to go on TV and invoke article 50.
That's not even credible as a position
This is the position Cameron has stated. Why are you so afraid of it?
I'm not afraid of it as I said.
No need to keep repeating a point Ive already answered.
Nothing on his CCHQ crib sheet so he has to keep repeating ad nauseum
It will, but I can't help but be impressed that after nearly two months of it our fellow countrymen, both north and south of the border, are still saying they are 50:50, or thereabouts.
We are not easily frightened.
Casino, One can only hope you have more fortitude than that shown in Scotland.
MG
I do not think so, there will be a reluctant remain.
My father was a definte leave voter, but he told me today, that he has changed his mind after speaking to my brother. Who said to him, that without membership of the EU all the the rights won by workers over the years, would be swept away if we left, by continual Conservative Government.. Corbyn has more impact than I imagined.
How sad - traduced by a lie.
I agree. I was flogging a dead horse, stating we should be proud of our own democracy and faith in the British people .
At some point over the next few weeks it might be worth revisiting the discussion with him and pointing out that many of the workers rights were introduced before we ever joined the EU. Sick Pay, Paid Holidays and Equal Pay are all examples.
The EU introduced many more workers rights and strengthened some. Part time workers rights , for example.
But a future Tory government could take them away too. If we are in the EU, they can't.
Equally a future right wing EU leadership could do the same, or impose anything else. Looking at this through a prisim of left and right is flawed.
The only issue at stake is accountability of government and democracy.
Neither am I. What I have said is that he will delay a few days (my quote I believe was two weeks is most likely) and in that time will discuss with his cabinet colleagues and with other European leaders the basic principles and systems on which the negotiations will take place.
That is if he has not already done so which of course he claims not to have done.
Anything else would be plain dumb and a dereliction of duty on his part. As I said earlier I clearly have more faith in his abilities and good sense than you do.
If we vote Leave, how Dare Cameron actually start Leave proceedings... It would be "a dereliction of duty on his part" to obey the Sovereign will of the British people. Not sure that is the Leavers' core message if I'm honest.
This just gets better and better.
The scene. 10 Downing Street. Interior. Friday morning. The PM is on the phone to Berlin.
"Hi Angela, David here."
"We voted to Leave the EU"
"No, I am not calling to invoke article 50. Just called for a chat."
Cameron has made no plans if we leave except to go on TV and invoke article 50.
That's not even credible as a position
This is the position Cameron has stated. Why are you so afraid of it?
I'm not afraid of it as I said.
No need to keep repeating a point Ive already answered.
Nothing on his CCHQ crib sheet so he has to keep repeating ad nauseum
He's now got to a point where the scare stories are counter productive. A lot of the leavers on here have run businesses, traded across Europe, seen it done
To date I'm still waiting for something which tells me why I'll be better off in the EU ten years from now than taking my chances outside it. It's a long wait.
I agree, unless we are for Euro and more integration it is pointless. However the scaremongering will work on many, unfortunately too many.
It will, but I can't help but be impressed that after nearly two months of it our fellow countrymen, both north and south of the border, are still saying they are 50:50, or thereabouts.
We are not easily frightened.
Casino, One can only hope you have more fortitude than that shown in Scotland.
MG
I do not think so, there will be a reluctant remain.
My father was a definte leave voter, but he told me today, that he has changed his mind after speaking to my brother. Who said to him, that without membership of the EU all the the rights won by workers over the years, would be swept away if we left, by continual Conservative Government.. Corbyn has more impact than I imagined.
But that is correct. Remember if LEAVE wins, it also confirms the ascendency of the Tory Right and UKIP. All sorts of workers rights would be in jeopardy.
In fact, those are amongst the reasons why the Leavers want Brexit.
No, if Leave wins it means that enough Labourites have seen sense and joined me in voting Leave. It might mean that Tory governments have the freedom to try and repeal workers' rights, but it will also allow a future Labour-led government to enact whatever Socialist policies it can get through parliament. Democracy, sovereignty, accountability, freedom.
You expect a receptive House of Lords will pass all those "socialist" legislation !
I think what I might have been saying in 1992 was that we went in to the ERM at the wrong level and so brought the crisis on ourselves. Was there any alternative to the decision Lamont was forced into?
The self-serving establishment is on both sides of the referendum argument.
Except the UK didn't enter the ERM at the wrong rate. We know this because the entire political and business establishment told us so.
There was no option to being in the ERM and only fruitcakes and loons claimed otherwise. We know this because the entire political and business establishment told us so.
And if for some reason Britain left the ERM then total economic disaster would happen - the car factories would shut down, the City would relocate to Frankfurt, there would be no inward investment, the pound would become as worthless as the Ukrainian Coupon, three million people would lose their jobs and the rest of the EU would ban British exports. We know this because the entire political and business establishment told us so.
As to the establishment being on both sides of the referendum ? Please don't pretend that to be the case.
So cabinet ministers, leading businessmen, newspaper editors and proprietors are no longer part of the establishment? That is news to me.
I think you'll find a fair few people - including shadow chancellor John Smith - were dubious about the rate at which the UK had entered the ERM.
There were quite a few people who were wise after the event regarding the ERM but I don't recall any of them saying that Britain should leave it while it was in it.
As to the establishment I'll look forward to the propaganda sheet coming from the government telling us why Britain should leave the EU.
Or perhaps when Obama tells us that Britain should vote Leave.
Or a thousand others we could all name.
Please don't embarrass yourself in claiming that the establishment doesn't support Remain.
Anyway I have things to do so a good evening to you.
I am not embarrassed by my belief that cabinet ministers, lords, knights of the realm, senior business people and newspaper editors are part of the Establishment.
Cameron has made no plans if we leave except to go on TV and invoke article 50.
That's not even credible as a position
This is the position Cameron has stated. Why are you so afraid of it?
I'm not afraid of it as I said.
No need to keep repeating a point Ive already answered.
Nothing on his CCHQ crib sheet so he has to keep repeating ad nauseum
He's now got to a point where the scare stories are counter productive. A lot of the leavers on here have run businesses, traded across Europe, seen it done it got the T shirt.
There's no point trying to frighten them since they manage risk every day as part of their jobs and are more than comfortable in taking their own view.
To date I'm still waiting for something which tells me why I'll be better off in the EU ten years from now than taking my chances outside it. It's a long wait.
I agree, unless we are for Euro and more integration it is pointless. However the scaremongering will work on many, unfortunately too many.
It will, but I can't help but be impressed that after nearly two months of it our fellow countrymen, both north and south of the border, are still saying they are 50:50, or thereabouts.
We are not easily frightened.
Casino, One can only hope you have more fortitude than that shown in Scotland.
MG
I do not think so, there will be a reluctant remain.
My father was a definte leave voter, but he told me today, that he has changed his mind after speaking to my brother. Who said to him, that without membership of the EU all the the rights won by workers over the years, would be swept away if we left, by continual Conservative Government.. Corbyn has more impact than I imagined.
But that is correct. Remember if LEAVE wins, it also confirms the ascendency of the Tory Right and UKIP. All sorts of workers rights would be in jeopardy.
In fact, those are amongst the reasons why the Leavers want Brexit.
The Tory right who've just had a prominent member resign because the 'Tory left' were kicking the disabled to maintain middle class perks?
Oh, yeah ! Resigned three days later ! Why did he not walk out of the Cabinet Room in the morning and resign like Heseltine ?
I am sure , I watched a BBC programme last year, where they went through the possible procedures, discussions, if the decision was to leave. I remember Lord Lamont was on it. Surely the Civil Service will be preparing for either result.
Neither am I. What I have said is that he will delay a few days (my quote I believe was two weeks is most likely) and in that time will discuss with his cabinet colleagues and with other European leaders the basic principles and systems on which the negotiations will take place.
That is if he has not already done so which of course he claims not to have done.
Anything else would be plain dumb and a dereliction of duty on his part. As I said earlier I clearly have more faith in his abilities and good sense than you do.
If we vote Leave, how Dare Cameron actually start Leave proceedings... It would be "a dereliction of duty on his part" to obey the Sovereign will of the British people. Not sure that is the Leavers' core message if I'm honest.
This just gets better and better.
The scene. 10 Downing Street. Interior. Friday morning. The PM is on the phone to Berlin.
"Hi Angela, David here."
"We voted to Leave the EU"
"No, I am not calling to invoke article 50. Just called for a chat."
"Next I have to call the other 26."
"Well, then I will invoke article 50 of course"
You really are not very bright are you Scott.
I must admit I forgot the fact you make no real contribution to this site apart from retweets and thought I should take you seriously. I see now how daft that was of me.
Cameron has made no plans if we leave except to go on TV and invoke article 50.
That's not even credible as a position
This is the position Cameron has stated. Why are you so afraid of it?
I'm not afraid of it as I said.
No need to keep repeating a point Ive already answered.
Nothing on his CCHQ crib sheet so he has to keep repeating ad nauseum
He's now got to a point where the scare stories are counter productive. A lot of the leavers on here have run businesses, traded across Europe, seen it done it got the T shirt.
There's no point trying to frighten them since they manage risk every day as part of their jobs and are more than comfortable in taking their own view.
To date I'm still waiting for something which tells me why I'll be better off in the EU ten years from now than taking my chances outside it. It's a long wait.
I agree, unless we are for Euro and more integration it is pointless. However the scaremongering will work on many, unfortunately too many.
It will, but I can't help but be impressed that after nearly two months of it our fellow countrymen, both north and south of the border, are still saying they are 50:50, or thereabouts.
We are not easily frightened.
Casino, One can only hope you have more fortitude than that shown in Scotland.
MG
I do not think so, there will be a reluctant remain.
My father was a definte leave voter, but he told me today, that he has changed his mind after speaking to my brother. Who said to him, that without membership of the EU all the the rights won by workers over the years, would be swept away if we left, by continual Conservative Government.. Corbyn has more impact than I imagined.
But that is correct. Remember if LEAVE wins, it also confirms the ascendency of the Tory Right and UKIP. All sorts of workers rights would be in jeopardy.
In fact, those are amongst the reasons why the Leavers want Brexit.
The Tory right who've just had a prominent member resign because the 'Tory left' were kicking the disabled to maintain middle class perks?
Oh, yeah ! Resigned three days later ! Why did he not walk out of the Cabinet Room in the morning and resign like Heseltine ?
I think he had other things on his mind. He attended a funeral that afternoon.
Cameron has made no plans if we leave except to go on TV and invoke article 50.
That's not even credible as a position
This is the position Cameron has stated. Why are you so afraid of it?
I'm not afraid of it as I said.
No need to keep repeating a point Ive already answered.
Nothing on his CCHQ crib sheet so he has to keep repeating ad nauseum
He's now got to a point where the scare stories are counter productive. A lot of the leavers on here have run businesses, traded across Europe, seen it done it got the T shirt.
There's no point trying to frighten them since they manage risk every day as part of their jobs and are more than comfortable in taking their own view.
To date I'm still waiting for something which tells me why I'll be better off in the EU ten years from now than taking my chances outside it. It's a long wait.
I agree, unless we are for Euro and more integration it is pointless. However the scaremongering will work on many, unfortunately too many.
It will, but I can't help but be impressed that after nearly two months of it our fellow countrymen, both north and south of the border, are still saying they are 50:50, or thereabouts.
We are not easily frightened.
Casino, One can only hope you have more fortitude than that shown in Scotland.
MG
I do not think so, there will be a reluctant remain.
My father was a definte leave voter, but he told me today, that he has changed his mind after speaking to my brother. Who said to him, that without membership of the EU all the the rights won by workers over the years, would be swept away if we left, by continual Conservative Government.. Corbyn has more impact than I imagined.
But that is correct. Remember if LEAVE wins, it also confirms the ascendency of the Tory Right and UKIP. All sorts of workers rights would be in jeopardy.
In fact, those are amongst the reasons why the Leavers want Brexit.
The Tory right who've just had a prominent member resign because the 'Tory left' were kicking the disabled to maintain middle class perks?
Oh, yeah ! Resigned three days later ! Why did he not walk out of the Cabinet Room in the morning and resign like Heseltine ?
Because he doesn't have Heseltine's flair for the dramatic?
Re thread header ED Miliband was only odds on to become PM because the polls were a load of doo doo. Most sensible people thought that the Great British Public couldn't be so stupid, but the polls did cause uncertainty.
I had every faith in my gut instinct that the polls had to be wrong.... perhaps it was wishful thinking, but the exit poll on GE night had me dancing with joy.
I am sure , I watched a BBC programme last year, where they went through the possible procedures, discussions, if the decision was to leave. I remember Lord Lamont was on it. Surely the Civil Service will be preparing for either result.
Isn't it what is called contingency planning. It would be a dereliction of duty if the Government hasn't been doing any.
From this thread you would think that a Leave result was a foregone conclusion.
And what proportion of voters have even heard of Article 50, ffs.
Why? Who has suggested that?
Why else would we be discussing the minutiae of what Cameron will do minute by minute after a Leave vote?
The only question worth considering at this point is whether he will resign or not. Everything else is angels on pinheads.
Cameron will not resign; he likes being PM and still, I suspect, "thinks he is rather good at it"!
It isn't up to him. Were Leave to win, and Dave doesn't quit, I'd hate to be Graham Brady's postman
Tories are knifing each other now. No love lost. The fact is that a referendum is taking place only because eof Cameron. Without Cameron, the Tories would not have won a majority.
I agree without Cameron the Tories would not have won a majority. However you forgot to the mention without the Lib Dems the same applies.
I am sure , I watched a BBC programme last year, where they went through the possible procedures, discussions, if the decision was to leave. I remember Lord Lamont was on it. Surely the Civil Service will be preparing for either result.
IIRC they've specifially been told not to. Can't recall though who posted that.
Meanwhile, Jeremy Hunt is apparently throwing in the towel to the junior doctors:
Jeremy Hunt is under mounting pressure over his handling of the junior doctors’ dispute after he unexpectedly abandoned his repeated threat to impose a new contract – a move that has led to four strikes by doctors so far.
Hunt’s change of tack, prompted by a high court challenge which starts on Monday, may mean the health secretary has misled parliament over the contract imposition because he has spoken of the threat repeatedly in front of MPs in the House of Commons.
The health secretary has now rowed back from his claim that he has the right to exercise what he called the “nuclear option” of imposition. His U-turn is revealed in a letter from the government’s lawyers that was seen by the Guardian and confirmed by his own Department of Health.
James Delingpole @JamesDelingpole James Delingpole Retweeted Red Zebra Maybe it's time we scrapped the Rhodes scholarship if it wastes Oxford's time with losers like this guy...
It is worth remembering that any politician attempting to defend a doomed currency peg will make all kinds of ridiculous statements
I don't think the ERM was the problem. Pegging sterling at 2.95 to the DM was the problem. Remember Major "talking up" the pound before we joined.
It wasn't just John Major.
Let's imagine you a currency speculator. We'll call you George Soros, to pick a random name. You know that at a certain point in the near future, the Bank of England will buy as many Pounds from you at a certain price. And by buying pounds now, you raise the price at which the BoE will buy your pounds from you in the future. Soros therefore bought pounds very aggressively on the assumption that the pound would go into the ERM - at a high price he had himself created - and therefore he would be able to sell out at a profit.
He's always remembered for the money he made at the end of the UK's ERM adventure, not for the money he made at the beginning.
I am not embarrassed by my belief that cabinet ministers, lords, knights of the realm, senior business people and newspaper editors are part of the Establishment.
Then I think you fundamentally misunderstand what is meant by 'establishment'. Which is that it is an amorphous but recognisable entity to which people belong and which within a loose structure provides preferment and patronage in exchange for loyalty. You can't just fend off accusations of the establishment gunning for a particular outcome by pointing someone 'on the other side' who has been successful and saying that they are 'just as establishment'. Is Mohammed Al Fayed establishment, with his Royal Warrants stripped as soon as Diana died? Is Richard Desmond establishment? Is Nigel Farage establishment?
James Delingpole @JamesDelingpole James Delingpole Retweeted Red Zebra Maybe it's time we scrapped the Rhodes scholarship if it wastes Oxford's time with losers like this guy...
I am not embarrassed by my belief that cabinet ministers, lords, knights of the realm, senior business people and newspaper editors are part of the Establishment.
Then I think you fundamentally misunderstand what is meant by 'establishment'. Which is that it is an amorphous but recognisable entity to which people belong and which within a loose structure provides preferment and patronage in exchange for loyalty. You can't just fend off accusations of the establishment gunning for a particular outcome by pointing someone 'on the other side' who has been successful and saying that they are 'just as establishment'. Is Mohammed Al Fayed establishment, with his Royal Warrants stripped as soon as Diana died? Is Richard Desmond establishment? Is Nigel Farage establishment?
It does sound rather like "the military industrial complex".
James Delingpole @JamesDelingpole James Delingpole Retweeted Red Zebra Maybe it's time we scrapped the Rhodes scholarship if it wastes Oxford's time with losers like this guy...
First, thanks for the kind words following my earlier contribution.
There's a need to disentangle the campaign rhetoric from the political reality. Three days before the 2010 election, David Cameron was saying "no deals or pacts with the Liberal Democrats" but by the Friday afternoon it was a "full and inclusive offer of talks".
Had Cameron said two days before that election - "look, we're not going to win a majority but I'm desperate to get into No.10 so we'll agree almost anything with the Lib Dems who are as desperate as we are to get their snouts into the trough" - that would have had the benefit of being the truth but isn't the message to galvanise the doubtful voter.
If anyone seriously believes that Friday afternoon speech hadn't been drafted well in advance as one of three options - the winning speech and the concession to Brown being the other two - well, that's just being naive.
So we can likely disregard 99% of what is being said by both sides before June 23rd.
IF LEAVE wins, June 24th will be full of reassurance and "respecting the will of the people" from everyone everywhere. It has to be - the markets will be jittery, sterling might be under pressure and people who had been told the sky will fall in if LEAVE wins will be anxious in case it does. It's a Friday as well so we'll need that before the weekend recriminations.
As for the actual process, the British delegation will not, to paraphrase Nye Bevan , be going "naked into the negotiating chamber" but will have the not inconsiderable force of the mandate of the people. The imponderable is whether the EU will play hardball as a way of deterring others from following the British example or whether they will seek to maintain a positive relationship with Britain going forward.
I really don't know the answer to this - I suspect we won't until the process begins and that's a risk for LEAVE and I understand that but realpolitik dictates that if Britain votes to LEAVE, the EU will have to make the best of it and seek to create a new positive relationship.
I am not embarrassed by my belief that cabinet ministers, lords, knights of the realm, senior business people and newspaper editors are part of the Establishment.
Then I think you fundamentally misunderstand what is meant by 'establishment'. Which is that it is an amorphous but recognisable entity to which people belong and which within a loose structure provides preferment and patronage in exchange for loyalty. You can't just fend off accusations of the establishment gunning for a particular outcome by pointing someone 'on the other side' who has been successful and saying that they are 'just as establishment'. Is Mohammed Al Fayed establishment, with his Royal Warrants stripped as soon as Diana died? Is Richard Desmond establishment? Is Nigel Farage establishment?
Is public school educated, former City trader and MEP Nigel Farage part of the establishment? Maybe not. But I'd say cabinet ministers Michael Gove, Chris Grayling and Teresa Villiers are, as is mayor of London Boris Johnson. I'd also throw in Lord Rothermere, Paul Dacre and Rupert Murdoch, as well as Lord Lawson and Lord Lamont.
Yes but you are only a Remainer today. Tomorrow or next week you will be a Leaver again.
If past experience is anything to go by anyway.
I agree. Just another party follower, give him his blue rosette. Only thing that makes them happy. You would not want him on your side in 1642.
Nonsense, when it is in the best interests of the country/is a matter of national importance, I always put the country ahead of the best interests of the Party/oppose what Cameron would like me to do.
#Tories4AV
You've said before that Leave would threaten Cameron going at a time of his choosing.
James Delingpole @JamesDelingpole James Delingpole Retweeted Red Zebra Maybe it's time we scrapped the Rhodes scholarship if it wastes Oxford's time with losers like this guy...
First, thanks for the kind words following my earlier contribution.
There's a need to disentangle the campaign rhetoric from the political reality. Three days before the 2010 election, David Cameron was saying "no deals or pacts with the Liberal Democrats" but by the Friday afternoon it was a "full and inclusive offer of talks".
Had Cameron said two days before that election - "look, we're not going to win a majority but I'm desperate to get into No.10 so we'll agree almost anything with the Lib Dems who are as desperate as we are to get their snouts into the trough" - that would have had the benefit of being the truth but isn't the message to galvanise the doubtful voter.
If anyone seriously believes that Friday afternoon speech hadn't been drafted well in advance as one of three options - the winning speech and the concession to Brown being the other two - well, that's just being naive.
So we can likely disregard 99% of what is being said by both sides before June 23rd.
IF LEAVE wins, June 24th will be full of reassurance and "respecting the will of the people" from everyone everywhere. It has to be - the markets will be jittery, sterling might be under pressure and people who had been told the sky will fall in if LEAVE wins will be anxious in case it does. It's a Friday as well so we'll need that before the weekend recriminations.
As for the actual process, the British delegation will not, to paraphrase Nye Bevan , be going "naked into the negotiating chamber" but will have the not inconsiderable force of the mandate of the people. The imponderable is whether the EU will play hardball as a way of deterring others from following the British example or whether they will seek to maintain a positive relationship with Britain going forward.
I really don't know the answer to this - I suspect we won't until the process begins and that's a risk for LEAVE and I understand that but realpolitik dictates that if Britain votes to LEAVE, the EU will have to make the best of it and seek to create a new positive relationship.
The best of it for the EU may not be a new positive relationship. From the EU's perspective it might be better to show that Britain had made a bad decision.
Though to my mind the bigger risk is that the renegotiation will be complex and politically fraught, and so will simply drift down the EU's priority list, leaving Britain in limbo.
James Delingpole @JamesDelingpole James Delingpole Retweeted Red Zebra Maybe it's time we scrapped the Rhodes scholarship if it wastes Oxford's time with losers like this guy...
James Delingpole @JamesDelingpole James Delingpole Retweeted Red Zebra Maybe it's time we scrapped the Rhodes scholarship if it wastes Oxford's time with losers like this guy...
Yes but you are only a Remainer today. Tomorrow or next week you will be a Leaver again.
If past experience is anything to go by anyway.
I agree. Just another party follower, give him his blue rosette. Only thing that makes them happy. You would not want him on your side in 1642.
Ah, 1642, a war in which one side definitely had no plan for what would happen if they won.
Yes to lose three crowns was unfortunate.
I was actually thinking how those opposing the King for the most part didn't want to remove him as King, hence so much sitting around arguing with each other when they did beat him the first time.
Leavers should take heart however - despite that lack of a plan and a fight against the status quo, the Parliamentarians still triumphed. Though that victory did end up causing further open conflict with the Scots, which is surely where the comparison falls down...
I feel like with Boris not formally the head of Vote Leave but clearly the most prominent and powerful single figure, he's the Cromwell in this scenario, who using VoteLeave will sweep away his opponents in the Rump (Tory party).
Yes but you are only a Remainer today. Tomorrow or next week you will be a Leaver again.
If past experience is anything to go by anyway.
I agree. Just another party follower, give him his blue rosette. Only thing that makes them happy. You would not want him on your side in 1642.
Nonsense, when it is in the best interests of the country/is a matter of national importance, I always put the country ahead of the best interests of the Party/oppose what Cameron would like me to do.
#Tories4AV
"No, the COUNTRY cums first!" - Liz Kendall, 2015.
First, thanks for the kind words following my earlier contribution.
There's a need to disentangle the campaign rhetoric from the political reality. Three days before the 2010 election, David Cameron was saying "no deals or pacts with the Liberal Democrats" but by the Friday afternoon it was a "full and inclusive offer of talks".
Had Cameron said two days before that election - "look, we're not going to win a majority but I'm desperate to get into No.10 so we'll agree almost anything with the Lib Dems who are as desperate as we are to get their snouts into the trough" - that would have had the benefit of being the truth but isn't the message to galvanise the doubtful voter.
If anyone seriously believes that Friday afternoon speech hadn't been drafted well in advance as one of three options - the winning speech and the concession to Brown being the other two - well, that's just being naive.
So we can likely disregard 99% of what is being said by both sides before June 23rd.
IF LEAVE wins, June 24th will be full of reassurance and "respecting the will of the people" from everyone everywhere. It has to be - the markets will be jittery, sterling might be under pressure and people who had been told the sky will fall in if LEAVE wins will be anxious in case it does. It's a Friday as well so we'll need that before the weekend recriminations.
As for the actual process, the British delegation will not, to paraphrase Nye Bevan , be going "naked into the negotiating chamber" but will have the not inconsiderable force of the mandate of the people. The imponderable is whether the EU will play hardball as a way of deterring others from following the British example or whether they will seek to maintain a positive relationship with Britain going forward.
I really don't know the answer to this - I suspect we won't until the process begins and that's a risk for LEAVE and I understand that but realpolitik dictates that if Britain votes to LEAVE, the EU will have to make the best of it and seek to create a new positive relationship.
Quite so. Realpolitik will rapidly take over from anger.
Does that mean the EU won't want something in return?
Of course not, and I suggested a few things to sweeten the deal at the start of this thread.
But to suggest it will shun the UK and make it a pariah state out of spite is just silly.
Yes but you are only a Remainer today. Tomorrow or next week you will be a Leaver again.
If past experience is anything to go by anyway.
I agree. Just another party follower, give him his blue rosette. Only thing that makes them happy. You would not want him on your side in 1642.
Ah, 1642, a war in which one side definitely had no plan for what would happen if they won.
Yes to lose three crowns was unfortunate.
I was actually thinking how those opposing the King for the most part didn't want to remove him as King, hence so much sitting around arguing with each other when they did beat him the first time.
Leavers should take heart however - despite that lack of a plan and a fight against the status quo, the Parliamentarians still triumphed. Though that victory did end up causing further open conflict with the Scots, which is surely where the comparison falls down...
I feel like with Boris not formally the head of Vote Leave but clearly the most prominent and powerful single figure, he's the Cromwell in this scenario, who using VoteLeave will sweep away his opponents in the Rump (Tory party).
So you're predicting the eventually Boris Johnson will receive a posthumous execution when we rejoin the EU?
Yes but you are only a Remainer today. Tomorrow or next week you will be a Leaver again.
If past experience is anything to go by anyway.
I agree. Just another party follower, give him his blue rosette. Only thing that makes them happy. You would not want him on your side in 1642.
Ah, 1642, a war in which one side definitely had no plan for what would happen if they won.
Yes to lose three crowns was unfortunate.
I was actually thinking how those opposing the King for the most part didn't want to remove him as King, hence so much sitting around arguing with each other when they did beat him the first time.
Leavers should take heart however - despite that lack of a plan and a fight against the status quo, the Parliamentarians still triumphed. Though that victory did end up causing further open conflict with the Scots, which is surely where the comparison falls down...
So you're predicting the eventually Boris Johnson will receive a posthumous execution when we rejoin the EU?
You're read my mind - I had just added an edit where I saw him as potentially the Cromwell in this scenario.
Although that would still mean he will go out still on top.
Yes but you are only a Remainer today. Tomorrow or next week you will be a Leaver again.
If past experience is anything to go by anyway.
I agree. Just another party follower, give him his blue rosette. Only thing that makes them happy. You would not want him on your side in 1642.
Nonsense, when it is in the best interests of the country/is a matter of national importance, I always put the country ahead of the best interests of the Party/oppose what Cameron would like me to do.
#Tories4AV
"No, the COUNTRY cums first!" - Liz Kendall, 2015.
Do you have to spell it like that? I mean, really?
Yes but you are only a Remainer today. Tomorrow or next week you will be a Leaver again.
If past experience is anything to go by anyway.
I agree. Just another party follower, give him his blue rosette. Only thing that makes them happy. You would not want him on your side in 1642.
Nonsense, when it is in the best interests of the country/is a matter of national importance, I always put the country ahead of the best interests of the Party/oppose what Cameron would like me to do.
#Tories4AV
"No, the COUNTRY cums first!" - Liz Kendall, 2015.
Do you have to spell it like that? I mean, really?
Yes but you are only a Remainer today. Tomorrow or next week you will be a Leaver again.
If past experience is anything to go by anyway.
I agree. Just another party follower, give him his blue rosette. Only thing that makes them happy. You would not want him on your side in 1642.
Ah, 1642, a war in which one side definitely had no plan for what would happen if they won.
Yes to lose three crowns was unfortunate.
I was actually thinking how those opposing the King for the most part didn't want to remove him as King, hence so much sitting around arguing with each other when they did beat him the first time.
Leavers should take heart however - despite that lack of a plan and a fight against the status quo, the Parliamentarians still triumphed. Though that victory did end up causing further open conflict with the Scots, which is surely where the comparison falls down...
So you're predicting the eventually Boris Johnson will receive a posthumous execution when we rejoin the EU?
You're read my mind - I had just added an edit where I saw him as potentially the Cromwell in this scenario.
Although that would still mean he will go out still on top.
I might do a Tory civil war thread along those lines.
Yes but you are only a Remainer today. Tomorrow or next week you will be a Leaver again.
If past experience is anything to go by anyway.
I agree. Just another party follower, give him his blue rosette. Only thing that makes them happy. You would not want him on your side in 1642.
Ah, 1642, a war in which one side definitely had no plan for what would happen if they won.
I would have been so awesome and in my element in 1642.
Despite being one of life's cavaliers, I would have been a Roundhead.
I would see abolishing the Monarchy as a stepping stone to becoming England's first Directly Elected Dictator.
Hmm. Guy cslled Cromwell might have had something to say about that.Althoiugh, to be fair, he didn't really want the job.
Cromwell was an idiot and hypocrite, abolishing the hereditary monarchy and replacing it with a hereditary Lord Proctector
He was a complicated man in a complicated time. In all seriousness, I think like many dictators when trying to assess who might be best placed to fill the same role as themselves, to balance the same factions and do so in trustworthy fashion, they fall back on presuming their own flesh and blood are the best placed to fill the role (even if Queen Dick certainly was not), which is part of why we have kings in the first place no doubt.
If the army could have been persuaded, it probably would have been better if he'd taken the crown when offered.
If that's the best they can do in matching their rhetoric to reality, all of us have little to fear from a Leave vote.
I must have missed those queues for bread on the street, the mass lay-offs, beggars on every corner, empty shops and buildings, and homeowners selling up due to negative equity.
I am not embarrassed by my belief that cabinet ministers, lords, knights of the realm, senior business people and newspaper editors are part of the Establishment.
Then I think you fundamentally misunderstand what is meant by 'establishment'. Which is that it is an amorphous but recognisable entity to which people belong and which within a loose structure provides preferment and patronage in exchange for loyalty. You can't just fend off accusations of the establishment gunning for a particular outcome by pointing someone 'on the other side' who has been successful and saying that they are 'just as establishment'. Is Mohammed Al Fayed establishment, with his Royal Warrants stripped as soon as Diana died? Is Richard Desmond establishment? Is Nigel Farage establishment?
Is public school educated, former City trader and MEP Nigel Farage part of the establishment? Maybe not. But I'd say cabinet ministers Michael Gove, Chris Grayling and Teresa Villiers are, as is mayor of London Boris Johnson. I'd also throw in Lord Rothermere, Paul Dacre and Rupert Murdoch, as well as Lord Lawson and Lord Lamont.
What is the origin and the continuing source of these peoples' wealth, success, and power, and how does that dictate their actions? Look there, and you'll see how establishment they are. Davos. IMF. The Economist. Chatham House. The CFR. The Privy Council. The Climate Change Lobby. The establishment isn't difficult to detect. You can be rich, successful, powerful and posh and not be part of it, though I don't think you can avoid brushes and compromises.
Comments
Firstly, we were hardly in the ERM for very long - less than two years from joining in autumn of 1990, and we left in summer of 1992. As we were simply going back to where we were before, the idea that Sterling would suddenly become a third world country is a bit absurd.
Secondly, as Lord Lawson explains in the View from Number Eleven, the ERM was not - for Britain - about trade or anything like that. The Treasury Briefing packs barely mention it. On the contrary, it was about the problem the UK had with inflation. We joined in October 1990 because inflation had got into the double digits, and it was causing us to have to hike rates (which led to terrible problems for over-levered house owners). Joining the ERM - it was considered - would help the UK government fight inflation, just as it had helped Italy fight inflation.
- EU politicians really need to shut their mouths about what will happen to the UK if there is a Brexit vote. I found myself foaming at the mouth (luckily, not literally) at Macron's comments and it just pushed me more to Leave;
- I think this is one of those issues where people do not genuinely know what is best and so ask friends and trusted people for advice to cut through the noise - I have been surprised by the number of friends asking me how I would vote but not to tell me whether they disagreed or not but almost (it seemed) they wanted some sort of guidance.
- I ended up in A&E last week in Devon (all ok, running injury) - chatting with the doctor (Home Counties, Conservative voter but not keen on Cameron and definitely not on Hunt), he said he will probably vote for Brexit, mainly because it would give Cameron a kick up the backside. He reckons most people in that part of the country would also vote for it. Mind you, he seemed to treat the issue more as a side issue than of national importance, which made me think Brexit had an advantage in that their supporters are more enthused;
- I work in the City in the front office - I am finding more and more of my colleagues are saying they will vote out. Remain has no real defenders except those of my colleagues who are actually from other EU countries (apart from the Irish - they don't seem to care and think things will go on regardless).
If past experience is anything to go by anyway.
I was flogging a dead horse, stating we should be proud of our own democracy and faith in the British people .
I am not the one denying it...
Gove seems to me , to be a symbolic exception.
Apologies because I'm going to have to leave for the moment but as a practitioner, what are your views on being on the outside of the MiFID II (and III & IV...!!!) negotiations?
I will pick up your response later and look forward to seeing it.
That is if he has not already done so which of course he claims not to have done.
Anything else would be plain dumb and a dereliction of duty on his part. As I said earlier I clearly have more faith in his abilities and good sense than you do.
David Cameron is overseeing "spiv Robert Mugabe antics" in the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, according to a former vice-chairman of the Conservative Party.
In an extraordinary attack on the government’s decision to spend £9.3 million of taxpayers’ money on a glossy 16-page booklet setting out the case to stay in the EU, Tory MP Nigel Evans likened Downing Street’s campaign to the African dictator’s continued attempt to cling to power.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-s-eu-referendum-campaign-compared-to-spiv-robert-mugabe-tactics-by-tory-backbencher-a6980426.html
Yes indeed. But Major & Co. said it anyway.
And of course to extend the analogy the UK was an advanced economy before it joined the EC/EU as well
2. Re. the ERM
Yes - it was about inflation. BUT, not longer after we joined the economy fell off a cliff and pretty soon the problem was not inflation but recession. And we then found we couldn't cut interest rates enough to fight recession because of ERM membership.
That turn of events was precisely what some of us had warned about from the start, i.e. that the ERM would be a straightjacket that might work under some circumstances, but assuredly wouldn't under others. There was no such thing as a 'right rate'.
Just another party follower, give him his blue rosette.
Only thing that makes them happy.
You would not want him on your side in 1642.
In fact, those are amongst the reasons why the Leavers want Brexit.
#Tories4AV
I do not think remain will have to worry.
However I bet they wish they had compulsory voting.
I am sure the discussion, will come up again.
But a future Tory government could take them away too. If we are in the EU, they can't.
James Delingpole Retweeted Red Zebra
Maybe it's time we scrapped the Rhodes scholarship if it wastes Oxford's time with losers like this guy...
https://twitter.com/redzebra321za/status/721762918241579008
That should be the overriding importance.
Not here today gone tomorrow politicians.
It is worth remembering that any politician attempting to defend a doomed currency peg will make all kinds of ridiculous statements
This just gets better and better.
The scene. 10 Downing Street. Interior. Friday morning. The PM is on the phone to Berlin.
"Hi Angela, David here."
"We voted to Leave the EU"
"No, I am not calling to invoke article 50. Just called for a chat."
"Next I have to call the other 26."
"Well, then I will invoke article 50 of course"
I remember Lord Lamont was on it.
Surely the Civil Service will be preparing for either result.
I must admit I forgot the fact you make no real contribution to this site apart from retweets and thought I should take you seriously. I see now how daft that was of me.
I had every faith in my gut instinct that the polls had to be wrong.... perhaps it was wishful thinking, but the exit poll on GE night had me dancing with joy.
It would be a dereliction of duty if the Government hasn't been doing any.
It's really irritating
However you forgot to the mention without the Lib Dems the same applies.
In 30%
Out 62%
DK 8%
Let's imagine you a currency speculator. We'll call you George Soros, to pick a random name. You know that at a certain point in the near future, the Bank of England will buy as many Pounds from you at a certain price. And by buying pounds now, you raise the price at which the BoE will buy your pounds from you in the future. Soros therefore bought pounds very aggressively on the assumption that the pound would go into the ERM - at a high price he had himself created - and therefore he would be able to sell out at a profit.
He's always remembered for the money he made at the end of the UK's ERM adventure, not for the money he made at the beginning.
----------------------------------------------------------
Then I think you fundamentally misunderstand what is meant by 'establishment'. Which is that it is an amorphous but recognisable entity to which people belong and which within a loose structure provides preferment and patronage in exchange for loyalty. You can't just fend off accusations of the establishment gunning for a particular outcome by pointing someone 'on the other side' who has been successful and saying that they are 'just as establishment'. Is Mohammed Al Fayed establishment, with his Royal Warrants stripped as soon as Diana died? Is Richard Desmond establishment? Is Nigel Farage establishment?
First, thanks for the kind words following my earlier contribution.
There's a need to disentangle the campaign rhetoric from the political reality. Three days before the 2010 election, David Cameron was saying "no deals or pacts with the Liberal Democrats" but by the Friday afternoon it was a "full and inclusive offer of talks".
Had Cameron said two days before that election - "look, we're not going to win a majority but I'm desperate to get into No.10 so we'll agree almost anything with the Lib Dems who are as desperate as we are to get their snouts into the trough" - that would have had the benefit of being the truth but isn't the message to galvanise the doubtful voter.
If anyone seriously believes that Friday afternoon speech hadn't been drafted well in advance as one of three options - the winning speech and the concession to Brown being the other two - well, that's just being naive.
So we can likely disregard 99% of what is being said by both sides before June 23rd.
IF LEAVE wins, June 24th will be full of reassurance and "respecting the will of the people" from everyone everywhere. It has to be - the markets will be jittery, sterling might be under pressure and people who had been told the sky will fall in if LEAVE wins will be anxious in case it does. It's a Friday as well so we'll need that before the weekend recriminations.
As for the actual process, the British delegation will not, to paraphrase Nye Bevan , be going "naked into the negotiating chamber" but will have the not inconsiderable force of the mandate of the people. The imponderable is whether the EU will play hardball as a way of deterring others from following the British example or whether they will seek to maintain a positive relationship with Britain going forward.
I really don't know the answer to this - I suspect we won't until the process begins and that's a risk for LEAVE and I understand that but realpolitik dictates that if Britain votes to LEAVE, the EU will have to make the best of it and seek to create a new positive relationship.
Confirmation bias is a wonderful thing.
Despite being one of life's cavaliers, I would have been a Roundhead.
I would see abolishing the Monarchy as a stepping stone to becoming England's first Directly Elected Dictator.
I mean we can still declare war on France, pass our own budget, have a vote in the future to leave the EU.
Though to my mind the bigger risk is that the renegotiation will be complex and politically fraught, and so will simply drift down the EU's priority list, leaving Britain in limbo.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/721787784562872324
I salute his courage, his strength, his indefatigability.
Rhodes Scholars include him and Bill Clinton
Just saying
Leavers should take heart however - despite that lack of a plan and a fight against the status quo, the Parliamentarians still triumphed. Though that victory did end up causing further open conflict with the Scots, which is surely where the comparison falls down...
I feel like with Boris not formally the head of Vote Leave but clearly the most prominent and powerful single figure, he's the Cromwell in this scenario, who using VoteLeave will sweep away his opponents in the Rump (Tory party).
Does that mean the EU won't want something in return?
Of course not, and I suggested a few things to sweeten the deal at the start of this thread.
But to suggest it will shun the UK and make it a pariah state out of spite is just silly.
Plain silly.
Although that would still mean he will go out still on top.
The Divine Rights of unelected EU Bureaucrats
Dave's "deal" is worse than that between Darth Vader and Lando Calrissian in "The Empire Strikes Back"!
If the army could have been persuaded, it probably would have been better if he'd taken the crown when offered.
I must have missed those queues for bread on the street, the mass lay-offs, beggars on every corner, empty shops and buildings, and homeowners selling up due to negative equity.