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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is a “Bradley effect” in the Mayoral race it’ll ha

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The motion, which has been approved for a debate and vote by the Manchester Students' Union, reads:

    “David Cameron and his right-wing Tory government were elected by a minority of the electorate."
    “Zero students voted Tory. Therefore, we must make a stand against this undemocratic regime by banning David Cameron and his Tory government from our democratic Students’ Union and our university campus."
    “In addition, David Cameron has continually violated the safe-space policy by implementing changes to junior doctors’ NHS contracts."
    “We must fight back against the Tory steamroller which is destroying the NHS and destroying the United Kingdom and also Europe."
    “Also David Cameron has said we should vote to stay in the EU, but he is a Tory and therefore he must have lied."


    Will someone be opposing the motion, or is that not allowed under "safe space" policies ?

    'Zero students' - almost certainly unprovable, and likely wrong, surely?
    They mean no-one within their carefully selected and filtered Facebook feed who liked or commented on one of their prolific anti-Tory posts.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    For anyone using Firefox and having problems with Quote leaving bits outside the box - remove the / from the blockquote second to last. It's erroneously breaking up the quote.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2016
    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    Pulpstar said:

    The motion, which has been approved for a debate and vote by the Manchester Students' Union, reads:

    “David Cameron and his right-wing Tory government were elected by a minority of the electorate."
    “Zero students voted Tory. Therefore, we must make a stand against this undemocratic regime by banning David Cameron and his Tory government from our democratic Students’ Union and our university campus."
    “In addition, David Cameron has continually violated the safe-space policy by implementing changes to junior doctors’ NHS contracts."
    “We must fight back against the Tory steamroller which is destroying the NHS and destroying the United Kingdom and also Europe."
    “Also David Cameron has said we should vote to stay in the EU, but he is a Tory and therefore he must have lied."


    Will someone be opposing the motion, or is that not allowed under "safe space" policies ?

    I had great fun at Bristol opposing these motions.

    We had one once to ban the Daily Mail.

    I arranged for five Tories to buy the paper and sit in a row at the front reading it as the proponent read out his motion.

    Totally threw him off, and the motion was chucked out.
  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited April 2016

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The motion, which has been approved for a debate and vote by the Manchester Students' Union, reads:

    “David Cameron and his right-wing Tory government were elected by a minority of the electorate."
    “Zero students voted Tory. Therefore, we must make a stand against this undemocratic regime by banning David Cameron and his Tory government from our democratic Students’ Union and our university campus."
    “In addition, David Cameron has continually violated the safe-space policy by implementing changes to junior doctors’ NHS contracts."
    “We must fight back against the Tory steamroller which is destroying the NHS and destroying the United Kingdom and also Europe."
    “Also David Cameron has said we should vote to stay in the EU, but he is a Tory and therefore he must have lied."


    Will someone be opposing the motion, or is that not allowed under "safe space" policies ?

    'Zero students' - almost certainly unprovable, and likely wrong, surely?
    They mean no-one within their carefully selected and filtered Facebook feed who liked or commented on one of their prolific anti-Tory posts.
    'safe-space policy'

    Switched off at that point. These losers are going to have such a difficult time interacting with the real world.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Pulpstar said:

    @mortimer Well it's a debate motion so you can put whatever rubbish you like in there. I think that's still a good thing about Student Unions, and I expect it to be vigourously opposed and roundly defeated

    Good point.

    Whoever wrote that has obviously never competed in an actual debate with proper opposition. I could speak for about 50 minutes against that motion, without notes, just by taking an axe to the wording.
  • Options

    Pulpstar said:

    runnymede said:

    There's no question, I'm afraid, that this is the direction in which British politics is heading. We won't perhaps get as monolithic as voting patterns in NI are, but we are going in broadly the same direction. The ethnic divide will get even starker as the last remnants of the mining culture disappear.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Derbyshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Target 18 for the Tories in 2020.

    My vote will actually count ! I never like that.
    Try living in the seat that might actually determine the make up of the next government!

    I've never seen anything like it.
    Try living somewhere like Hertsmere.
    You won't be bothered by campaigns ever again.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789

    JackW said:

    Meanwhile ....

    As the government prepares to dispatch tens of millions of glossy REMAIN leaflets the Brexit campaign is ready to up their momentum ....

    http://www.annacastle.com/wp-content/uploads/Gerrit_Dou_Scholar_sharpening_a_quill_pen_wikicom.jpg

    Don't we find out next week which BREXIT Campaign get the quill?
    Nick Palmer said he'd heard intell that VoteLeave had a clear lead in that.

    Don't know how true that is.
    That would be good for the campaign, and I imagine Farage, Galloway et al will accept with their customary good grace......
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Hindus, Sikhs, Jews and Eastern Europeans.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    MaxPB said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Hindus, Sikhs, Jews and Eastern Europeans.
    You think the Jewish vote will turn out for labour??

    Goodness.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    @Casino_Royale, @Mortimer I can see the motion getting passed, with perhaps not even an opposing speaker though. Wouldn't have happened 10, 15 years back - even though SUs have always leaned left.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Goldmsith needs roughly 60% of the white vote, and a third of the BAME vote going by Comres numbers.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Meanwhile ....

    As the government prepares to dispatch tens of millions of glossy REMAIN leaflets the Brexit campaign is ready to up their momentum ....

    http://www.annacastle.com/wp-content/uploads/Gerrit_Dou_Scholar_sharpening_a_quill_pen_wikicom.jpg

    Don't we find out next week which BREXIT Campaign get the quill?
    It might not be a quill .... informed sources indicate that Nigel Farage is waiting for tablets of stone from on high that the faithful will be able to view on request.

    The only problem apparently is that Nige has insisted that the said tablets must be smaller than the marble shrine of the UKIP leader. Negotiations with God are ongoing .... I'm not hopeful that the Almighty wont be expelled from UKIP's National Executive !!
  • Options



    Voters have different priorities.

    Last year we customised our approach to different voters.

    If family A's main priority was education, we banged on about education.

    If family B's main priority was the NHS, we banged on about the NHS.

    If family C's main priority was immigration, we banged on about how a vote for UKIP would allow Ed Miliband and the SNP to take power.

    i understand targeting. a similar approach to tailoring one's cv to the job one is applying for (which makes me feel like a miserable sell-out tbh).

    did you use race to help determine which was their likely main priority?
    No, I did declare myself Hors de combat from a few households who we felt were 100% opposed to any immigration/Enoch was right types.

    I was probably not the best person to persuade them.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207
    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Is the 2015 figure a London figure? It might be that BAME voters living outside of London are more likely to vote Labour than those living in the capital.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,983

    Pulpstar said:

    The motion, which has been approved for a debate and vote by the Manchester Students' Union, reads:

    “David Cameron and his right-wing Tory government were elected by a minority of the electorate."
    “Zero students voted Tory. Therefore, we must make a stand against this undemocratic regime by banning David Cameron and his Tory government from our democratic Students’ Union and our university campus."
    “In addition, David Cameron has continually violated the safe-space policy by implementing changes to junior doctors’ NHS contracts."
    “We must fight back against the Tory steamroller which is destroying the NHS and destroying the United Kingdom and also Europe."
    “Also David Cameron has said we should vote to stay in the EU, but he is a Tory and therefore he must have lied."


    Will someone be opposing the motion, or is that not allowed under "safe space" policies ?

    I had great fun at Bristol opposing these motions.

    We had one once to ban the Daily Mail.

    I arranged for five Tories to buy the paper and sit in a row at the front reading it as the proponent read out his motion.

    Totally threw him off, and the motion was chucked out.
    It reads like a parody to me.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Pulpstar said:

    The motion, which has been approved for a debate and vote by the Manchester Students' Union, reads:

    “David Cameron and his right-wing Tory government were elected by a minority of the electorate."
    “Zero students voted Tory. Therefore, we must make a stand against this undemocratic regime by banning David Cameron and his Tory government from our democratic Students’ Union and our university campus."
    “In addition, David Cameron has continually violated the safe-space policy by implementing changes to junior doctors’ NHS contracts."
    “We must fight back against the Tory steamroller which is destroying the NHS and destroying the United Kingdom and also Europe."
    “Also David Cameron has said we should vote to stay in the EU, but he is a Tory and therefore he must have lied."


    Will someone be opposing the motion, or is that not allowed under "safe space" policies ?

    I had great fun at Bristol opposing these motions.

    We had one once to ban the Daily Mail.

    I arranged for five Tories to buy the paper and sit in a row at the front reading it as the proponent read out his motion.

    Totally threw him off, and the motion was chucked out.
    :smile:

    The only JCR meeting that came close to making me lose my rag was when some idiot questioned whether the JCR should really be paying for the minibus for a memorial cricket match celebrating the life of a student who had died in a horrific accident.

    I think the threat of him being the single recorded no vote made him abstain. What a weasel.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    watford30 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The motion, which has been approved for a debate and vote by the Manchester Students' Union, reads:

    “David Cameron and his right-wing Tory government were elected by a minority of the electorate."
    “Zero students voted Tory. Therefore, we must make a stand against this undemocratic regime by banning David Cameron and his Tory government from our democratic Students’ Union and our university campus."
    “In addition, David Cameron has continually violated the safe-space policy by implementing changes to junior doctors’ NHS contracts."
    “We must fight back against the Tory steamroller which is destroying the NHS and destroying the United Kingdom and also Europe."
    “Also David Cameron has said we should vote to stay in the EU, but he is a Tory and therefore he must have lied."


    Will someone be opposing the motion, or is that not allowed under "safe space" policies ?

    'Zero students' - almost certainly unprovable, and likely wrong, surely?
    They mean no-one within their carefully selected and filtered Facebook feed who liked or commented on one of their prolific anti-Tory posts.
    'safe-space policy'

    Switched off at that point. These losers are going to have such a difficult time interacting with the real world.
    Not if this crap eventually feeds itself into the HR policies of major businesses and public sector organisations.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207
    Pulpstar said:

    runnymede said:

    There's no question, I'm afraid, that this is the direction in which British politics is heading. We won't perhaps get as monolithic as voting patterns in NI are, but we are going in broadly the same direction. The ethnic divide will get even starker as the last remnants of the mining culture disappear.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Derbyshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Target 18 for the Tories in 2020.

    My vote will actually count ! I never like that.
    Move to Bolsover.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    Pulpstar said:

    @Casino_Royale, @Mortimer I can see the motion getting passed, with perhaps not even an opposing speaker though. Wouldn't have happened 10, 15 years back - even though SUs have always leaned left.

    I voted against a multiculturalist motion at my university in 2002. The sole vote against.

    I think if I did that today, I'd be lynched.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @KathViner: Or, to put it another way... leading Brexit campaigner is not resident in the UK for tax purposes https://t.co/iTIUWAEgEm
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Scott_P said:

    @KathViner: Or, to put it another way... leading Brexit campaigner is not resident in the UK for tax purposes https://t.co/iTIUWAEgEm

    And?

    Residency hasn't stopped Remain wheeling out Obama and half the EU to intervene on it's behalf.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763



    Voters have different priorities.

    Last year we customised our approach to different voters.

    If family A's main priority was education, we banged on about education.

    If family B's main priority was the NHS, we banged on about the NHS.

    If family C's main priority was immigration, we banged on about how a vote for UKIP would allow Ed Miliband and the SNP to take power.

    i understand targeting. a similar approach to tailoring one's cv to the job one is applying for (which makes me feel like a miserable sell-out tbh).

    did you use race to help determine which was their likely main priority?
    No, I did declare myself Hors de combat from a few households who we felt were 100% opposed to any immigration/Enoch was right types.

    I was probably not the best person to persuade them.
    I thought you would have dazzled them with your footwork
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    taffys said:

    MaxPB said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Hindus, Sikhs, Jews and Eastern Europeans.
    You think the Jewish vote will turn out for labour??

    Goodness.
    Some of them will have given Ed's background. Maybe not in Finchley or Temple Fortune, but in Islington and Camden for sure.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Pulpstar said:

    The motion, which has been approved for a debate and vote by the Manchester Students' Union, reads:

    “David Cameron and his right-wing Tory government were elected by a minority of the electorate."

    Describing the government as right-wing is a bit of a stretch, if Cameron fell down a trap door and was replaced by Clegg nothing of note would change.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,459

    I've had my polling card but aside from that I don't believe I've received a single piece of literature about the Mayoral election. As usual, no one seems to be interested in my vote*.


    *Actually, that's not entirely fair. My MP, Emily Thornberry, has been assiduous in the last few years about sending leaflets regularly updating me on what she is doing.

    Around Easter, got letters from both Zac and Sadiq, and Zac's letter even came with a leaflet!
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    The personal details and fingerprints of thousands of UK citizens could be at risk, because of a security flaw in the US Government's visa system.

    Anyone who has applied for a visa to travel to the US in the last 20 years probably has information stored in the vulnerable database. It currently contains 290 million passport-related records and 184 million visa records.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/04/06/applied-for-a-us-visa-in-the-last-20-years-your-fingerprints-and/

    Which is why National Id cards are such an idiotic idea, as is the idea that the government could keep the results of the various snooping powers they are so keen to give themselves secret.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    tlg86 said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Is the 2015 figure a London figure? It might be that BAME voters living outside of London are more likely to vote Labour than those living in the capital.
    It is from a London poll at the end of March last year.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The motion, which has been approved for a debate and vote by the Manchester Students' Union, reads:

    “David Cameron and his right-wing Tory government were elected by a minority of the electorate."
    “Zero students voted Tory. Therefore, we must make a stand against this undemocratic regime by banning David Cameron and his Tory government from our democratic Students’ Union and our university campus."
    “In addition, David Cameron has continually violated the safe-space policy by implementing changes to junior doctors’ NHS contracts."
    “We must fight back against the Tory steamroller which is destroying the NHS and destroying the United Kingdom and also Europe."
    “Also David Cameron has said we should vote to stay in the EU, but he is a Tory and therefore he must have lied."


    Will someone be opposing the motion, or is that not allowed under "safe space" policies ?

    I had great fun at Bristol opposing these motions.

    We had one once to ban the Daily Mail.

    I arranged for five Tories to buy the paper and sit in a row at the front reading it as the proponent read out his motion.

    Totally threw him off, and the motion was chucked out.
    It reads like a parody to me.
    I can assure you it happened. It was very funny.

    Sniggering in the hall helped underline what a silly idea it was.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    Pulpstar said:

    @Casino_Royale, @Mortimer I can see the motion getting passed, with perhaps not even an opposing speaker though. Wouldn't have happened 10, 15 years back - even though SUs have always leaned left.

    I voted against a multiculturalist motion at my university in 2002. The sole vote against.

    I think if I did that today, I'd be lynched.
    I didn't get involved in student politics because I hated the SU at Cardiff. It was full of far-left idiots.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,903
    taffys said:

    MaxPB said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Hindus, Sikhs, Jews and Eastern Europeans.
    You think the Jewish vote will turn out for labour??

    Goodness.
    To suggest there is a 'Jewish vote' is patronising and ludicrous and borderline racist
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436
    Pulpstar said:

    The motion, which has been approved for a debate and vote by the Manchester Students' Union, reads:

    “David Cameron and his right-wing Tory government were elected by a minority of the electorate."
    “Zero students voted Tory. Therefore, we must make a stand against this undemocratic regime by banning David Cameron and his Tory government from our democratic Students’ Union and our university campus."
    “In addition, David Cameron has continually violated the safe-space policy by implementing changes to junior doctors’ NHS contracts."
    “We must fight back against the Tory steamroller which is destroying the NHS and destroying the United Kingdom and also Europe."
    “Also David Cameron has said we should vote to stay in the EU, but he is a Tory and therefore he must have lied."


    Will someone be opposing the motion, or is that not allowed under "safe space" policies ?

    Sounds like a Corbyn press release.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207
    chestnut said:

    tlg86 said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Is the 2015 figure a London figure? It might be that BAME voters living outside of London are more likely to vote Labour than those living in the capital.
    It is from a London poll at the end of March last year.
    Thank you - that is a very interesting difference.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Roger said:

    taffys said:

    MaxPB said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Hindus, Sikhs, Jews and Eastern Europeans.
    You think the Jewish vote will turn out for labour??

    Goodness.
    To suggest there is a 'Jewish vote' is patronising and ludicrous and borderline racist
    You've never been to Finchley, I take it.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    ?? I'm talking about email and Twitter activity that's location independent. I just got an email from BackZac. There's no comparison with BackBoris.

    watford30 said:

    I follow the BackZac campaign out of curiosity and low energy doesn't come close - pitiful is more accurate. A rare email or a few tweets - I had hundreds from BackBoris.

    I'm not seeing many RT's either.

    MaxPB said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    Sean_F said:

    Defection watch

    Tory activist Shazia Awan: Zac Goldsmith’s damaging, exploitative and ugly campaign puts me off politics as a BME candidate

    The former Conservative party parliamentary candidate for Leigh claims the Tory London mayoral campaign is dragging the party back to the days of Enoch Powell.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2016/04/tory-activist-shazia-awan-zac-goldsmith-s-damaging-exploitative-and-ugly

    Having leaflets aimed at different ethnic groups may come over as a bit patronising, but it's hardly "damaging, exploitative, and ugly." Labour and other parties do it as well.

    As you imply, I think she's made up her mind to switch sides, and is just looking for a pretext to do so.
    I'm still struggling to contemplate how a Tory 2015 Tory candidate can switch to a Corbyn led Labour party. I would have said it would be the same probability as Ken Clarke joining UKIP.
    I doubt she will actually switch to Labour, but I have to admit I'm surprised to see you defending Zac Goldsmith's campaign.

    You've quite rightly said how disgusting Phil Woolas's campaign was, but I don't see how Goldsmith's is any different.
    The Goldsmith campaign isn't racist, it's just rubbish and low energy. Very much like the candidate, unfortunately.

    As for the thread, the graph shows why Zac is still in the running, with Khan's support coming so heavily from BME backgrounds, there is no guarantee they will turn out to vote on the day.
    Don't you live in Sussex? Perhaps they're being more focussed.
    Targeted Email and twitter activity hasn't been location independent for a long time, even out here in the technological back of beyond the geopositioning from my IP address locates me within about 20 metres.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The motion, which has been approved for a debate and vote by the Manchester Students' Union, reads:

    “David Cameron and his right-wing Tory government were elected by a minority of the electorate."
    “Zero students voted Tory. Therefore, we must make a stand against this undemocratic regime by banning David Cameron and his Tory government from our democratic Students’ Union and our university campus."
    “In addition, David Cameron has continually violated the safe-space policy by implementing changes to junior doctors’ NHS contracts."
    “We must fight back against the Tory steamroller which is destroying the NHS and destroying the United Kingdom and also Europe."
    “Also David Cameron has said we should vote to stay in the EU, but he is a Tory and therefore he must have lied."


    Will someone be opposing the motion, or is that not allowed under "safe space" policies ?

    I had great fun at Bristol opposing these motions.

    We had one once to ban the Daily Mail.

    I arranged for five Tories to buy the paper and sit in a row at the front reading it as the proponent read out his motion.

    Totally threw him off, and the motion was chucked out.
    :smile:

    The only JCR meeting that came close to making me lose my rag was when some idiot questioned whether the JCR should really be paying for the minibus for a memorial cricket match celebrating the life of a student who had died in a horrific accident.

    I think the threat of him being the single recorded no vote made him abstain. What a weasel.
    A lot of people simply can't handle other people disagreeing with them.

    They think others will naturally agree with them. If they don't, they will give up or withdraw rather than fight their case.

    If they do fight, they can often make it personal rather than base it on reason.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2016
    Roger said:

    taffys said:

    MaxPB said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Hindus, Sikhs, Jews and Eastern Europeans.
    You think the Jewish vote will turn out for labour??

    Goodness.
    To suggest there is a 'Jewish vote' is patronising and ludicrous and borderline racist
    Its terrible when people try and treat how whole groups of people will vote based upon religion...

    ‘Are you going to make sure the Sikh vote turns out for us?’ asks Ed as he poses for the camera with his Wallace grin.

    http://metro.co.uk/2015/04/16/ed-miliband-just-got-pranked-big-time-5153170/
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Indigo said:

    ?? I'm talking about email and Twitter activity that's location independent. I just got an email from BackZac. There's no comparison with BackBoris.

    watford30 said:

    I follow the BackZac campaign out of curiosity and low energy doesn't come close - pitiful is more accurate. A rare email or a few tweets - I had hundreds from BackBoris.

    I'm not seeing many RT's either.

    MaxPB said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    Sean_F said:

    Defection watch

    Tory activist Shazia Awan: Zac Goldsmith’s damaging, exploitative and ugly campaign puts me off politics as a BME candidate

    The former Conservative party parliamentary candidate for Leigh claims the Tory London mayoral campaign is dragging the party back to the days of Enoch Powell.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/devolution/2016/04/tory-activist-shazia-awan-zac-goldsmith-s-damaging-exploitative-and-ugly

    Having leaflets aimed at different ethnic groups may come over as a bit patronising, but it's hardly "damaging, exploitative, and ugly." Labour and other parties do it as well.

    As you imply, I think she's made up her mind to switch sides, and is just looking for a pretext to do so.
    I'm still struggling to contemplate how a Tory 2015 Tory candidate can switch to a Corbyn led Labour party. I would have said it would be the same probability as Ken Clarke joining UKIP.
    I doubt she will actually switch to Labour, but I have to admit I'm surprised to see you defending Zac Goldsmith's campaign.

    You've quite rightly said how disgusting Phil Woolas's campaign was, but I don't see how Goldsmith's is any different.
    The Goldsmith campaign isn't racist, it's just rubbish and low energy. Very much like the candidate, unfortunately.

    As for the thread, the graph shows why Zac is still in the running, with Khan's support coming so heavily from BME backgrounds, there is no guarantee they will turn out to vote on the day.
    Don't you live in Sussex? Perhaps they're being more focussed.
    Targeted Email and twitter activity hasn't been location independent for a long time, even out here in the technological back of beyond the geopositioning from my IP address locates me within about 20 metres.
    No, there's just not a lot of communication from the Zac campaign, it is lamentably poor.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436

    The Prime Minister seems to be looking to drum up the youth vote:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/718032226366132224

    Hope is also handing out voter registration cards. As Toynbee pointed out the other day, Remain really need the young to be able to vote and actually turn out. This is a big ask at the moment.

    Time for Booky Wooky man?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    TGOHF said:

    From the point of view of their respective political parties both are reasonable if not particularly exciting candidates (I think Zac's campaign is better than some on here have been saying).

    Personally, I can't say I'm enthused by either candidate. Zac's extreme anti-Heathrow position is a problem. I'm distinctly unimpressed by Sadiq's unrealistic stance on freezing fares - he was doing OK until he came out with that.

    The thing that dives me crazy about both Zac & Khan is their opposition to Uber as well as HS2 and Heathrow expansion.
    Just as frustrating is that only Boris of the "anti-Heathrow" squad has any ideas for what they would do instead.

    Pathetic.
    Khan is in favour of Gatwick (don't agree myself, but so what). Goldsmith is dubious about putting it anywhere.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Roger said:

    taffys said:

    MaxPB said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Hindus, Sikhs, Jews and Eastern Europeans.
    You think the Jewish vote will turn out for labour??

    Goodness.
    To suggest there is a 'Jewish vote' is patronising and ludicrous and borderline racist
    Then every commentator, pundit, pollster and party worker covering the US election is borderline racist. They talk about the black vote, the hispanic vote and the blue collar white vote every day of the week.
  • Options



    Voters have different priorities.

    Last year we customised our approach to different voters.

    If family A's main priority was education, we banged on about education.

    If family B's main priority was the NHS, we banged on about the NHS.

    If family C's main priority was immigration, we banged on about how a vote for UKIP would allow Ed Miliband and the SNP to take power.

    i understand targeting. a similar approach to tailoring one's cv to the job one is applying for (which makes me feel like a miserable sell-out tbh).

    did you use race to help determine which was their likely main priority?
    No, I did declare myself Hors de combat from a few households who we felt were 100% opposed to any immigration/Enoch was right types.

    I was probably not the best person to persuade them.
    I thought you would have dazzled them with your footwork
    Hah no. They might have assumed I was another immigrant sponging off benefits.

    Because of my long term health issues, I get free prescriptions, my local pharmacist told me recently that a visit to collect my prescriptions, someone said to her 'typical immigrant, don't have to pay for prescriptions like us English'

    That person got the bollocking of their life from my pharmacist.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,459
    edited April 2016

    TGOHF said:

    From the point of view of their respective political parties both are reasonable if not particularly exciting candidates (I think Zac's campaign is better than some on here have been saying).

    Personally, I can't say I'm enthused by either candidate. Zac's extreme anti-Heathrow position is a problem. I'm distinctly unimpressed by Sadiq's unrealistic stance on freezing fares - he was doing OK until he came out with that.

    The thing that dives me crazy about both Zac & Khan is their opposition to Uber as well as HS2 and Heathrow expansion.
    Just as frustrating is that only Boris of the "anti-Heathrow" squad has any ideas for what they would do instead.

    Pathetic.
    Khan is in favour of Gatwick (don't agree myself, but so what). Goldsmith is dubious about putting it anywhere.
    One quirk of the latest London Oystercard map, is that Heathrow, wholly within the GLA boundary, is only accessible using your Oystercard via the slow, cramped Tube, and not via either the mainline Heathrow Express or Heathrow Connect service. Whereas Gatwick, wholly outside the GLA boundary, is accessible using Oyster, whether you travel by Gatwick Express or the slower Southern Railway service.

    http://static.standard.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2016/01/07/09/GATWICKtubemapHIRES.jpg
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2016
    taffys said:

    Roger said:

    taffys said:

    MaxPB said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Hindus, Sikhs, Jews and Eastern Europeans.
    You think the Jewish vote will turn out for labour??

    Goodness.
    To suggest there is a 'Jewish vote' is patronising and ludicrous and borderline racist
    Then every commentator, pundit, pollster and party worker covering the US election is borderline racist. They talk about the black vote, the hispanic vote and the blue collar white vote every day of the week.
    I have to say I find it rather uncomfortable when they talk about the "African American" vote and especially the "Hispanic" vote. In the later case it isn't logically valid as they are certainly not mostly on of one side of a binary choice in some states e.g. Florida.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436

    TGOHF said:

    From the point of view of their respective political parties both are reasonable if not particularly exciting candidates (I think Zac's campaign is better than some on here have been saying).

    Personally, I can't say I'm enthused by either candidate. Zac's extreme anti-Heathrow position is a problem. I'm distinctly unimpressed by Sadiq's unrealistic stance on freezing fares - he was doing OK until he came out with that.

    The thing that dives me crazy about both Zac & Khan is their opposition to Uber as well as HS2 and Heathrow expansion.
    Just as frustrating is that only Boris of the "anti-Heathrow" squad has any ideas for what they would do instead.

    Pathetic.
    Khan is in favour of Gatwick (don't agree myself, but so what). Goldsmith is dubious about putting it anywhere.
    Hmm. As I understand Khan has switched from supporting Heathrow in the recent past.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    Vote Leave are continuing to impress me with their organisation.

    I've just received an email from Jack Holland, the ground campaign organiser for the North West asking me to put a poster in my garden.

    I live in South East England. And I don't have a garden.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763



    Voters have different priorities.

    Last year we customised our approach to different voters.

    If family A's main priority was education, we banged on about education.

    If family B's main priority was the NHS, we banged on about the NHS.

    If family C's main priority was immigration, we banged on about how a vote for UKIP would allow Ed Miliband and the SNP to take power.

    i understand targeting. a similar approach to tailoring one's cv to the job one is applying for (which makes me feel like a miserable sell-out tbh).

    did you use race to help determine which was their likely main priority?
    No, I did declare myself Hors de combat from a few households who we felt were 100% opposed to any immigration/Enoch was right types.

    I was probably not the best person to persuade them.
    I thought you would have dazzled them with your footwork
    Hah no. They might have assumed I was another immigrant sponging off benefits.

    Because of my long term health issues, I get free prescriptions, my local pharmacist told me recently that a visit to collect my prescriptions, someone said to her 'typical immigrant, don't have to pay for prescriptions like us English'

    That person got the bollocking of their life from my pharmacist.
    They might have assumed I was another immigrant sponging off benefits.


    Nonsense they'd only have called you a parasite when they learned your profession.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The motion, which has been approved for a debate and vote by the Manchester Students' Union, reads:

    “David Cameron and his right-wing Tory government were elected by a minority of the electorate."
    “Zero students voted Tory. Therefore, we must make a stand against this undemocratic regime by banning David Cameron and his Tory government from our democratic Students’ Union and our university campus."
    “In addition, David Cameron has continually violated the safe-space policy by implementing changes to junior doctors’ NHS contracts."
    “We must fight back against the Tory steamroller which is destroying the NHS and destroying the United Kingdom and also Europe."
    “Also David Cameron has said we should vote to stay in the EU, but he is a Tory and therefore he must have lied."


    Will someone be opposing the motion, or is that not allowed under "safe space" policies ?

    I had great fun at Bristol opposing these motions.

    We had one once to ban the Daily Mail.

    I arranged for five Tories to buy the paper and sit in a row at the front reading it as the proponent read out his motion.

    Totally threw him off, and the motion was chucked out.
    :smile:

    The only JCR meeting that came close to making me lose my rag was when some idiot questioned whether the JCR should really be paying for the minibus for a memorial cricket match celebrating the life of a student who had died in a horrific accident.

    I think the threat of him being the single recorded no vote made him abstain. What a weasel.
    A lot of people simply can't handle other people disagreeing with them.

    They think others will naturally agree with them. If they don't, they will give up or withdraw rather than fight their case.

    If they do fight, they can often make it personal rather than base it on reason.
    Would love to be a fly on the wall when the are called in by their first boss, who hasn't been getting enough sleep recently, and wants to know why the report they just submitted (late) was inadequate in a number of respects, and that possibly if they get up at a sensible time, got a shave (where appropriate), put on a decent suit, and got to the office on time, and generally got a grip, the next might be considerable better WON'T IT... ;)
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    That was certainly my experience of carousing, as a correspondent for the Daily Telegraph, with colleagues from the Guardian at party conferences, and especially with my dear friend Simon Hoggart. Almost everyone in the enormous contingent of journalists from the Guardian was approachable. One could share a joke while agreeing to differ about, say, the merits of Margaret Thatcher. Only Milne held himself aloof, walking around the press room as if in a world of his own. He used to do the same in the Guardian offices.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/highlights/2016/04/profile-seamus-milne-corbyns-press-man-who-has-never-quite-grown-up.html
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,020

    Vote Leave are continuing to impress me with their organisation.

    I've just received an email from Jack Holland, the ground campaign organiser for the North West asking me to put a poster in my garden.

    I live in South East England. And I don't have a garden.

    Whereas I contacted the East Midlands organiser who within a couple of hours had put me onto the local organiser for my area and within 2 days I had taken delivery of 1000 leaflets - well produced and straight forward - along with metal badges, car stickers and posters.

    Very impressed.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292

    Vote Leave are continuing to impress me with their organisation.

    I've just received an email from Jack Holland, the ground campaign organiser for the North West asking me to put a poster in my garden.

    I live in South East England. And I don't have a garden.

    Other than those minor details, he is bang on?
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753

    taffys said:

    Roger said:

    taffys said:

    MaxPB said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Hindus, Sikhs, Jews and Eastern Europeans.
    You think the Jewish vote will turn out for labour??

    Goodness.
    To suggest there is a 'Jewish vote' is patronising and ludicrous and borderline racist
    Then every commentator, pundit, pollster and party worker covering the US election is borderline racist. They talk about the black vote, the hispanic vote and the blue collar white vote every day of the week.
    I have to say I find it rather uncomfortable when they talk about the "African American" vote and especially the "Hispanic" vote. In the later case it isn't logically valid as they are certainly not mostly on of one side of a binary choice in some states e.g. Florida.
    That said, I guess these guys would not talk this way if some groups of voters, to some extent, did not vote along identity lines.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,459
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    taffys said:

    MaxPB said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Hindus, Sikhs, Jews and Eastern Europeans.
    You think the Jewish vote will turn out for labour??

    Goodness.
    To suggest there is a 'Jewish vote' is patronising and ludicrous and borderline racist
    You've never been to Finchley, I take it.
    I think you mean Golders Green.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    And drag their personal slights from one thread to another, whilst demanding that those they're rude to volunteer for more of the same. Erm, no thanks.

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The motion, which has been approved for a debate and vote by the Manchester Students' Union, reads:

    “David Cameron and his right-wing Tory government were elected by a minority of the electorate."
    “Zero students voted Tory. Therefore, we must make a stand against this undemocratic regime by banning David Cameron and his Tory government from our democratic Students’ Union and our university campus."
    “In addition, David Cameron has continually violated the safe-space policy by implementing changes to junior doctors’ NHS contracts."
    “We must fight back against the Tory steamroller which is destroying the NHS and destroying the United Kingdom and also Europe."
    “Also David Cameron has said we should vote to stay in the EU, but he is a Tory and therefore he must have lied."


    Will someone be opposing the motion, or is that not allowed under "safe space" policies ?

    I had great fun at Bristol opposing these motions.

    We had one once to ban the Daily Mail.

    I arranged for five Tories to buy the paper and sit in a row at the front reading it as the proponent read out his motion.

    Totally threw him off, and the motion was chucked out.
    :smile:

    The only JCR meeting that came close to making me lose my rag was when some idiot questioned whether the JCR should really be paying for the minibus for a memorial cricket match celebrating the life of a student who had died in a horrific accident.

    I think the threat of him being the single recorded no vote made him abstain. What a weasel.
    A lot of people simply can't handle other people disagreeing with them.

    They think others will naturally agree with them. If they don't, they will give up or withdraw rather than fight their case.

    If they do fight, they can often make it personal rather than base it on reason.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    taffys said:

    Roger said:

    taffys said:

    MaxPB said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Hindus, Sikhs, Jews and Eastern Europeans.
    You think the Jewish vote will turn out for labour??

    Goodness.
    To suggest there is a 'Jewish vote' is patronising and ludicrous and borderline racist
    Then every commentator, pundit, pollster and party worker covering the US election is borderline racist. They talk about the black vote, the hispanic vote and the blue collar white vote every day of the week.
    I have to say I find it rather uncomfortable when they talk about the "African American" vote and especially the "Hispanic" vote. In the later case it isn't logically valid as they are certainly not mostly on of one side of a binary choice in some states e.g. Florida.
    You can use it as a very good predictor as to where Hillary and Bernie will get votes on the Democrat side !
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    TGOHF said:

    From the point of view of their respective political parties both are reasonable if not particularly exciting candidates (I think Zac's campaign is better than some on here have been saying).

    Personally, I can't say I'm enthused by either candidate. Zac's extreme anti-Heathrow position is a problem. I'm distinctly unimpressed by Sadiq's unrealistic stance on freezing fares - he was doing OK until he came out with that.

    The thing that dives me crazy about both Zac & Khan is their opposition to Uber as well as HS2 and Heathrow expansion.
    Just as frustrating is that only Boris of the "anti-Heathrow" squad has any ideas for what they would do instead.

    Pathetic.
    Khan is in favour of Gatwick (don't agree myself, but so what). Goldsmith is dubious about putting it anywhere.
    Putting the runway in Gatwick is probably worse than not having it at all tbh as it will be a completely false dawn and create two medium hubs instead of one huge hub. I still think a new airport somewhere north west of London, maybe at the Luton site (with an offshoot from HS2 for fast travel from London or Birmingham), make it into a mega 6 runway beast and shut Heathrow down and build a new industrial estate or housing there. Since that isn't on the agenda, Heathrow is the only option. Tessa seems to have understood this.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    Cyclefree said:

    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:



    As for the thread, the graph shows why Zac is still in the running, with Khan's support coming so heavily from BME backgrounds, there is no guarantee they will turn out to vote on the day.

    But that's my point: BMEs (specifically Muslims in this case) do often not turn out, and they might well not have turned out if Zac had presented himself as a non-threatening candidate like Boris did - but one thing that will get them out is if they think there's a risk of racists getting in. Look what happened in Oldham West.
    There is nothing interesting or imaginative or intelligent about a person who thinks that the best way of describing themselves is to add up a series of characteristics about themselves with an added sprinking of what their parents did. That's how you describe someone in a police or medical report. It's not how a politician or leader should present themselves.

    To be fair I don't think ethnic or religious aspects have featured prominently in Khan's appeal, either when he was standing for selection or since. I think of him as "the housing candidate" as he's always going on about that - appropriately for the context.

    In general I think that it's reasonable to note if one's potentially breaking a glass ceiling, in the same way that it was notable that Thatcher was the first woman PM. If I was a Muslim of Pakistani origin I would think it was quite nice that someone of my background was getting a shot at being Mayor for the first time - not decisive in deciding who to vote for, but worth noting. Hillary in the US also gets it about right - she doesn't say "vote for me because I'm a woman" but she says it'll be something to celebrate if they do elect a woman President. Fair enough, no?
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Vote Leave are continuing to impress me with their organisation.

    I've just received an email from Jack Holland, the ground campaign organiser for the North West asking me to put a poster in my garden.

    I live in South East England. And I don't have a garden.

    Oops, that’s the problem with a generic e-mail sent out to 1000s – could have been worse however, they could have asked you to pay for the printing of the poster. – or did they :lol:
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,459

    JackW said:

    Meanwhile ....

    As the government prepares to dispatch tens of millions of glossy REMAIN leaflets the Brexit campaign is ready to up their momentum ....

    http://www.annacastle.com/wp-content/uploads/Gerrit_Dou_Scholar_sharpening_a_quill_pen_wikicom.jpg

    Don't we find out next week which BREXIT Campaign get the quill?
    Easy:

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!
    :)
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672

    Vote Leave are continuing to impress me with their organisation.

    I've just received an email from Jack Holland, the ground campaign organiser for the North West asking me to put a poster in my garden.

    I live in South East England. And I don't have a garden.

    Whereas I contacted the East Midlands organiser who within a couple of hours had put me onto the local organiser for my area and within 2 days I had taken delivery of 1000 leaflets - well produced and straight forward - along with metal badges, car stickers and posters.

    Very impressed.
    I am ordering 1,000 leaflets myself direct from the website.

    There doesn't seem to be any structured organisation where I live.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    That's not really fair - I got that email and it's headed Supporters in the NW. Not ideal but it's a one off campaign not a massive ongoing database like Team.

    Vote Leave are continuing to impress me with their organisation.

    I've just received an email from Jack Holland, the ground campaign organiser for the North West asking me to put a poster in my garden.

    I live in South East England. And I don't have a garden.

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436

    That was certainly my experience of carousing, as a correspondent for the Daily Telegraph, with colleagues from the Guardian at party conferences, and especially with my dear friend Simon Hoggart. Almost everyone in the enormous contingent of journalists from the Guardian was approachable. One could share a joke while agreeing to differ about, say, the merits of Margaret Thatcher. Only Milne held himself aloof, walking around the press room as if in a world of his own. He used to do the same in the Guardian offices.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/highlights/2016/04/profile-seamus-milne-corbyns-press-man-who-has-never-quite-grown-up.html

    As a Guardian reader most days, I think it is a disgrace that he's been allowed to take a "leave of absence". I doubt CP Scott would have approved.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Tim Fallon is talking a good game about the Lib Dems' chances in the local elections:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35936356
  • Options

    Vote Leave are continuing to impress me with their organisation.

    I've just received an email from Jack Holland, the ground campaign organiser for the North West asking me to put a poster in my garden.

    I live in South East England. And I don't have a garden.

    Are they using MERLIN? That would explain a great many things
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,903
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    taffys said:

    MaxPB said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Hindus, Sikhs, Jews and Eastern Europeans.
    You think the Jewish vote will turn out for labour??

    Goodness.
    To suggest there is a 'Jewish vote' is patronising and ludicrous and borderline racist
    You've never been to Finchley, I take it.
    Do you think the Hasidic Jews of Finchley and Golders Green represent anything other than a small sect of very untypical Jews? Have you gone through your life believing that this is what Jews look like?

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/multimedia/archive/00393/israel_nica12369889_393337c.jpg
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @KathViner: Or, to put it another way... leading Brexit campaigner is not resident in the UK for tax purposes https://t.co/iTIUWAEgEm

    That article is rather interesting, but not because of anything to do with Brexit.

    In the 2012 Budget (the one which was actually rather good, but for some reason panned at the time), Osborne clamped down heavily on taxation of property owned by foreign companies, as the article reminds us. We can see the direct effect of that in this case.

    What's also interesting is Michael Geoghegan 's comment on that change:

    In an email to the Guardian, Geoghegan said that he was not domiciled in the UK and not a UK resident. He pointed out that successive British governments had encouraged the use of these structures by foreign investors, even if this created an “unlevel playing field”.

    Geoghegan said: “Since the early 60s the UK government [along with many others in Europe, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean] have encouraged foreign investment in residential and commercial real estate. The structure recommended for such types of investment has mostly been corporate structures – in some cases governments give tax advantages to foreign investors for using such structures.

    “In the case of [the] UK, up until 2015, all chancellors of the exchequer for the past 50 years or more provided exemption from [capital gains tax] on the property itself or on the sale of the shares in the offshore corporation if owned by non residents. Additionally all foreign investors received an exemption from the potential of [inheritance tax], if the underlying UK assets were held through a company.

    “I appreciate for many this appears to be an ‘unlevel playing field’ compared to domestic investors’ obligations, but for most countries inward foreign currency investment is a major part of each country’s approach to attracting legitimate foreign currency.”
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @blairmcdougall: Worried about @richardlochhead Appears he's lost his phone as he's not answering calls from the media & has vanished from social media.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    edited April 2016
    Danny565 said:

    Tim Fallon is talking a good game about the Lib Dems' chances in the local elections:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35936356

    When was his civil partnership with Michael Fallon ?

    Must have missed that one :)
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    taffys said:

    MaxPB said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Hindus, Sikhs, Jews and Eastern Europeans.
    You think the Jewish vote will turn out for labour??

    Goodness.
    To suggest there is a 'Jewish vote' is patronising and ludicrous and borderline racist
    You've never been to Finchley, I take it.
    Do you think the Hasidic Jews of Finchley and Golders Green represent anything other than a small sect of very untypical Jews? Have you gone through your life believing that this is what Jews look like?

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/multimedia/archive/00393/israel_nica12369889_393337c.jpg
    Lol, this is funny because my best friend is Jewish and my ex gf is Jewish.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2016
    https://twitter.com/KenBrownGolf/status/718051681129226243
    I agree, it is probably my favourite WEEK in sport, thats why I am watching ALL 4 days live on sky ;-)
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    taffys said:

    MaxPB said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Hindus, Sikhs, Jews and Eastern Europeans.
    You think the Jewish vote will turn out for labour??

    Goodness.
    To suggest there is a 'Jewish vote' is patronising and ludicrous and borderline racist
    You've never been to Finchley, I take it.
    Do you think the Hasidic Jews of Finchley and Golders Green represent anything other than a small sect of very untypical Jews? Have you gone through your life believing that this is what Jews look like?

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/multimedia/archive/00393/israel_nica12369889_393337c.jpg
    Are you saying that labour's anti-semites only hate certain types of jewish people?
  • Options
    LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    At least the PM deserves some credit for going to a 'Leftie' University like Exeter.

    WHERE IS Alan Johnson and Lord Rose? I thought they were supposed to be the front-men for the Leave campaign, they are practically invisible? Is this deliberate - she asks naively?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    taffys said:

    MaxPB said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Hindus, Sikhs, Jews and Eastern Europeans.
    You think the Jewish vote will turn out for labour??

    Goodness.
    To suggest there is a 'Jewish vote' is patronising and ludicrous and borderline racist
    You've never been to Finchley, I take it.
    Do you think the Hasidic Jews of Finchley and Golders Green represent anything other than a small sect of very untypical Jews? Have you gone through your life believing that this is what Jews look like?

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/multimedia/archive/00393/israel_nica12369889_393337c.jpg
    Oh, and the Hasidic Jews are in Stamford Hill, not Finchley, Golders Green or Temple Fortune. The Jewish people in the latter three tend to be Reform Jews.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369



    Because of my long term health issues, I get free prescriptions, my local pharmacist told me recently that a visit to collect my prescriptions, someone said to her 'typical immigrant, don't have to pay for prescriptions like us English'

    That person got the bollocking of their life from my pharmacist.

    When I lived in Switzerland, the local dry cleaner moaned to me about immigrants and said they should all be sent back. I pointed out that she was talking about me, to which she actually said, "Oh, that's different, you're white". That was the last time I used her services.

    To be fair I don't think you'd hear racism quite that nakedly in Britain nowadays.
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536



    Because of my long term health issues, I get free prescriptions, my local pharmacist told me recently that a visit to collect my prescriptions, someone said to her 'typical immigrant, don't have to pay for prescriptions like us English'

    That person got the bollocking of their life from my pharmacist.

    When I lived in Switzerland, the local dry cleaner moaned to me about immigrants and said they should all be sent back. I pointed out that she was talking about me, to which she actually said, "Oh, that's different, you're white". That was the last time I used her services.

    To be fair I don't think you'd hear racism quite that nakedly in Britain nowadays.
    When I worked in Austria many years ago a common division was made between 'Auslander' and 'EU-Auslander'.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369

    At least the PM deserves some credit for going to a 'Leftie' University like Exeter.

    WHERE IS Alan Johnson and Lord Rose? I thought they were supposed to be the front-men for the Leave campaign, they are practically invisible? Is this deliberate - she asks naively?

    AJ is making speeches and giving interviews, but they're not getting much reported because (a) he's not a party leader and (b) he's not saying anything shocking. e.g.:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/26/alan-johnson-interview-eu-referendum-labour

    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/eu-referendum-read-full-speech-labour-chief-alan-johnson-airbus-1545455

    I do expect Corbyn to weigh in, but not till after the May elections.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,903
    edited April 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    taffys said:

    MaxPB said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Hindus, Sikhs, Jews and Eastern Europeans.
    You think the Jewish vote will turn out for labour??

    Goodness.
    To suggest there is a 'Jewish vote' is patronising and ludicrous and borderline racist
    You've never been to Finchley, I take it.
    Do you think the Hasidic Jews of Finchley and Golders Green represent anything other than a small sect of very untypical Jews? Have you gone through your life believing that this is what Jews look like?

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/multimedia/archive/00393/israel_nica12369889_393337c.jpg
    Lol, this is funny because my best friend is Jewish and my ex gf is Jewish.
    You had a Jewish girlfriend presumably reform-if anything at all-and you can talk about "A Jewish Vote"? How are the butchers voting this year?
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    taffys said:

    MaxPB said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour: Tory vote ratios among BAME voters:

    Comres 2015 for Labour: 3.22 Labour to 1 Tory
    Comres 2016 for Khan: 2.38 Labour to 1 Tory.

    That implies that Khan is less popular than the Labour brand among BAME voters.

    Hindus, Sikhs, Jews and Eastern Europeans.
    You think the Jewish vote will turn out for labour??

    Goodness.
    To suggest there is a 'Jewish vote' is patronising and ludicrous and borderline racist
    You've never been to Finchley, I take it.
    Do you think the Hasidic Jews of Finchley and Golders Green represent anything other than a small sect of very untypical Jews? Have you gone through your life believing that this is what Jews look like?

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/multimedia/archive/00393/israel_nica12369889_393337c.jpg
    Lol, this is funny because my best friend is Jewish and my ex gf is Jewish.
    You had a Jewish girlfriend presumably reform-if anything at all-and you can talk about "A Jewish Vote"?
    No wonder it is an ex girlfriend
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436

    At least the PM deserves some credit for going to a 'Leftie' University like Exeter.

    WHERE IS Alan Johnson and Lord Rose? I thought they were supposed to be the front-men for the Leave campaign, they are practically invisible? Is this deliberate - she asks naively?

    AJ is making speeches and giving interviews, but they're not getting much reported because (a) he's not a party leader and (b) he's not saying anything shocking. e.g.:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/26/alan-johnson-interview-eu-referendum-labour

    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/eu-referendum-read-full-speech-labour-chief-alan-johnson-airbus-1545455

    I do expect Corbyn to weigh in, but not till after the May elections.
    I've seen reports of a major Labour roadshow with AJ around the country after the locals are out of the way.

    Needs to be done. Labour have to get their core vote out.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631



    Because of my long term health issues, I get free prescriptions, my local pharmacist told me recently that a visit to collect my prescriptions, someone said to her 'typical immigrant, don't have to pay for prescriptions like us English'

    That person got the bollocking of their life from my pharmacist.

    When I lived in Switzerland, the local dry cleaner moaned to me about immigrants and said they should all be sent back. I pointed out that she was talking about me, to which she actually said, "Oh, that's different, you're white". That was the last time I used her services.

    To be fair I don't think you'd hear racism quite that nakedly in Britain nowadays.
    Ah, the Swiss Bünzli.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    At least the PM deserves some credit for going to a 'Leftie' University like Exeter.

    WHERE IS Alan Johnson and Lord Rose? I thought they were supposed to be the front-men for the Leave campaign, they are practically invisible? Is this deliberate - she asks naively?

    Far from being a "Leftie" university , Exeter's largest political association is the Conservative's and is in fact one of the largest in all UK universities .
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    At least the PM deserves some credit for going to a 'Leftie' University like Exeter.

    WHERE IS Alan Johnson and Lord Rose? I thought they were supposed to be the front-men for the Leave campaign, they are practically invisible? Is this deliberate - she asks naively?

    Lol - is there is there such a thing as a "rightie" university? All it really shows is that the EU is all the PM does right now. It's as as much part of the campaign to save his job as the glossy pamphlet.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    At least the PM deserves some credit for going to a 'Leftie' University like Exeter.

    WHERE IS Alan Johnson and Lord Rose? I thought they were supposed to be the front-men for the Leave campaign, they are practically invisible? Is this deliberate - she asks naively?

    Not seen much of Rose since he warned that wages would rise if we left the EU....funny that.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789

    Scott_P said:

    @KathViner: Or, to put it another way... leading Brexit campaigner is not resident in the UK for tax purposes https://t.co/iTIUWAEgEm

    In an email to the Guardian
    Interesting that he thought he might get a sympathetic hearing in the Guardian.......which of course is not unconversant with exotic tax practices.....
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    At least the PM deserves some credit for going to a 'Leftie' University like Exeter.

    WHERE IS Alan Johnson and Lord Rose? I thought they were supposed to be the front-men for the Leave campaign, they are practically invisible? Is this deliberate - she asks naively?

    Far from being a "Leftie" university , Exeter's largest political association is the Conservative's and is in fact one of the largest in all UK universities .
    Indeed. Exeter was always crawling with Sloanes.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    "WHERE IS Alan Johnson and Lord Rose? I thought they were supposed to be the front-men for the Leave campaign, they are practically invisible? Is this deliberate - she asks naively?"

    What nonsense in the above: Alan Johnson and Lord Rose are indeed front men, but for REMAIN.
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    At 6.32 in a two-horse race Zac is either amazing value, or has already lost it. Would be a truly dismal performance to lose to a failing Labour Party by 5-10 points.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited April 2016

    Vote Leave are continuing to impress me with their organisation.

    I've just received an email from Jack Holland, the ground campaign organiser for the North West asking me to put a poster in my garden.

    I live in South East England. And I don't have a garden.

    Vote Leave are continuing to impress me with their organisation.

    I've just received an email from Jack Holland, the ground campaign organiser for the North West asking me to put a poster in my garden.

    I live in South East England. And I don't have a garden.

    Me too! Perhaps they've assumed the map of Leave/Remain support will mirror the Royalist/Roundhead divide.

    I have no other explanation.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Mortimer said:

    At least the PM deserves some credit for going to a 'Leftie' University like Exeter.

    WHERE IS Alan Johnson and Lord Rose? I thought they were supposed to be the front-men for the Leave campaign, they are practically invisible? Is this deliberate - she asks naively?

    Not seen much of Rose since he warned that wages would rise if we left the EU....funny that.
    Yeah, that was an interesting scare tactic. Vote remain or wages will rise. Err...
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436

    At 6.32 in a two-horse race Zac is either amazing value, or has already lost it. Would be a truly dismal performance to lose to a failing Labour Party by 5-10 points.

    Welcome aboard. Interesting handle.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,903
    watford30 said:

    At least the PM deserves some credit for going to a 'Leftie' University like Exeter.

    WHERE IS Alan Johnson and Lord Rose? I thought they were supposed to be the front-men for the Leave campaign, they are practically invisible? Is this deliberate - she asks naively?

    Far from being a "Leftie" university , Exeter's largest political association is the Conservative's and is in fact one of the largest in all UK universities .
    Indeed. Exeter was always crawling with Sloanes.
    We're certainly into stereotyping today. I wonder if Sloanes vote by designer label?
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    At 6.32 in a two-horse race Zac is either amazing value, or has already lost it. Would be a truly dismal performance to lose to a failing Labour Party by 5-10 points.

    Welcome aboard. Interesting handle.
    But a painful procedure!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    At 6.32 in a two-horse race Zac is either amazing value, or has already lost it. Would be a truly dismal performance to lose to a failing Labour Party by 5-10 points.

    Welcome aboard. Interesting handle.
    Zac's apparently managed to end up behind Sadiq on terrorism of all things. Remarkable.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2016
    This is a classic example of why probably best for Labour to focus on process and not person...and let the media give Cameron a hard time.

    http://order-order.com/2016/04/07/hilary-benn-keeping-quiet-on-family-tax-avoidance/

    and
    There are thousands and thousands of investment funds with near identical offshore structures. I can think of loads of hedge funds, private equity funds and international investment funds with incredibly similar offshore identities.

    They are so common that I would be staggered if there were not Labour MPs - among others - who had not at some juncture held investments in funds with similar offshore structures, though they might not have been aware of it.
    https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/1599591150365624
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    Pulpstar said:

    At 6.32 in a two-horse race Zac is either amazing value, or has already lost it. Would be a truly dismal performance to lose to a failing Labour Party by 5-10 points.

    Welcome aboard. Interesting handle.
    Zac's apparently managed to end up behind Sadiq on terrorism of all things. Remarkable.
    Is it really that remarkable? He is too laid back – doesn't look like the man for a crisis.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Roger said:

    watford30 said:

    At least the PM deserves some credit for going to a 'Leftie' University like Exeter.

    WHERE IS Alan Johnson and Lord Rose? I thought they were supposed to be the front-men for the Leave campaign, they are practically invisible? Is this deliberate - she asks naively?

    Far from being a "Leftie" university , Exeter's largest political association is the Conservative's and is in fact one of the largest in all UK universities .
    Indeed. Exeter was always crawling with Sloanes.
    We're certainly into stereotyping today. I wonder if Sloanes vote by designer label?
    That's probably more of Ad Man thing, not being seen dead in the wrong make of black jumper or spectacles etc
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227

    Cyclefree said:

    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:



    There is nothing interesting or imaginative or intelligent about a person who thinks that the best way of describing themselves is to add up a series of characteristics about themselves with an added sprinking of what their parents did. That's how you describe someone in a police or medical report. It's not how a politician or leader should present themselves.

    To be fair I don't think ethnic or religious aspects have featured prominently in Khan's appeal, either when he was standing for selection or since. I think of him as "the housing candidate" as he's always going on about that - appropriately for the context.

    In general I think that it's reasonable to note if one's potentially breaking a glass ceiling, in the same way that it was notable that Thatcher was the first woman PM. If I was a Muslim of Pakistani origin I would think it was quite nice that someone of my background was getting a shot at being Mayor for the first time - not decisive in deciding who to vote for, but worth noting. Hillary in the US also gets it about right - she doesn't say "vote for me because I'm a woman" but she says it'll be something to celebrate if they do elect a woman President. Fair enough, no?
    Housing is a key issue. And Khan is right to raise it.

    But I disagree fundamentally with your premise. It is good that glass ceilings are blasted through but they should be on merit not for other reasons. I agree though that role models matter. But the model should be: if I can do this so can you. Not think of yourself as a Pakistani or Catholic or whatever.

    But I think people are too quick to point to their ethnicity or religion or whatever as the most important aspect of themselves. Khan has made much of being the son of a Pakistani bus driver. But so what? As far as I'm concerned, he's British - like I am - even though we both have parents who came to this country from others. And he has made much of being a Muslim and, again, so what? Why should electing a Muslim mayor send a message, any more than not electing a Muslim mayor would send a message? And he goes on about being brought up on a council estate as if that said something about him. Why? Where he lived as a child has nothing to do with his qualities.

    Candidates are far too much "me - me - me" and far too little about what they can do for us, the voters. It's as if elections are a test of us, as if we're expected to signal how virtuous we are by our vote (working-class Pakistani vs Eton toff) rather than them focusing on us and our needs and desires. Elections are for our benefit. It's time candidates realised that.

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436
    Roger said:

    watford30 said:

    At least the PM deserves some credit for going to a 'Leftie' University like Exeter.

    WHERE IS Alan Johnson and Lord Rose? I thought they were supposed to be the front-men for the Leave campaign, they are practically invisible? Is this deliberate - she asks naively?

    Far from being a "Leftie" university , Exeter's largest political association is the Conservative's and is in fact one of the largest in all UK universities .
    Indeed. Exeter was always crawling with Sloanes.
    We're certainly into stereotyping today. I wonder if Sloanes vote by designer label?
    Isn't the Sloane a term from the late 70s/early 80s. Surely something has replaced it by now?
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    The Exeter University Conservative Association has not been invited to the Prime Minister’s talk, which is scheduled for Thursday, 7th April.

    Sir Steve Smith, Exeter’s Vice-Chancellor, sent out personal invitations to a selected number of students and academics to represent the university. The invitation read: “I am writing to invite you to a special Q&A session with a senior Cabinet Minister. This will be an opportunity to ask questions on the important subject of Britain’s EU membership and what it means for young people.”

    It was revealed earlier today that this senior Cabinet Minister is going to be none other than Prime Minister David Cameron. There will be no invited representatives of the EUCA tomorrow during the 2-hour long discussion, although some individual members of the society have been.

    http://exepose.com/2016/04/07/conservative-society-not-invited-to-see-david-cameron-talk-at-the-uni/
This discussion has been closed.