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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With sentiment edging away from REMAIN it’s been the bigges

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  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    McDonnell skewered Osborne far more effectively than Corbyn in the House today, could he be Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS? Howard of course was also Shadow Chancellor

    QTWAIN.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Wanderer said:

    Speedy said:

    The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
    A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.

    Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?
    I guess one possibility is domestic political chaos. You would assume that Cameron being ousted prior to the referendum would be bad for Remain but it's possible the electorate wouldn't vote to Leave the EU at a moment when the country was effectively leaderless. (I don't suppose Cameron would favour this strategy for Remain.)
    After today's unity performance by the conservatives David Cameron is going nowhere
    I'm sure you're right. I was just trying to think of possible answers to TCPB's question.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    edited March 2016
    HYUFD said:

    Walked through Leicester Square tonight which was packed for the premiere but seems a bit of a cashcow movie to me and Ben Affleck will find it hard to fill Christian Bale's shoes
    Affleck's Wayne/Batman look to be the best bit of the film (from the trailers). Nailed the Miller Dark Knight look and feel.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Wanderer said:

    I see the abolitionists are out in force, how about we all live by the same rules, laws, call it what you like.

    Gay marriage? Yep, for anyone who wants it.
    Arranged marriage? Not for anybody who doesn't want it.
    FGM? Any prosecutions lately?
    Honour killings? Its called murder.

    Let's stop appeasing people with silly views about sex, marriage and homosexuality and live our lives. Have a look at the news if you fancy the alternative.

    Abolitionists?
    Ban the burkha, ban faith schools.

    Be honest, just say you don't like muslims.

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Wanderer said:

    Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

    Even if most do, a few reading them might make a difference in a close fight. No-one is saying it will move mountains, but IIRC there are studies out there showing that campaigning makes a small (but observable) difference.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Walked through Leicester Square tonight which was packed for the premiere but seems a bit of a cashcow movie to me and Ben Affleck will find it hard to fill Christian Bale's shoes
    Oh really, I wonder what was it that betrayed Batman vs Superman as a cashcow movie.

    Next time they should have a geriatric Captain Kirk fighting a geriatric Han Solo in Star Wars vs Star Trek.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    In an article today William Hague suggests it was he who helped IDS to the leadership, he says he moved IDS to the shadow cabinet A-team 'in order to give him a crack at the leadership himself and partly to mess up the plans of others who thought they would succeed me. '
  • Wanderer said:

    I see the abolitionists are out in force, how about we all live by the same rules, laws, call it what you like.

    Gay marriage? Yep, for anyone who wants it.
    Arranged marriage? Not for anybody who doesn't want it.
    FGM? Any prosecutions lately?
    Honour killings? Its called murder.

    Let's stop appeasing people with silly views about sex, marriage and homosexuality and live our lives. Have a look at the news if you fancy the alternative.

    Abolitionists?
    Ban the burkha, ban faith schools.

    Be honest, just say you don't like muslims.

    I'll be honest, there is a certain type of Muslim that I ain't keen on.
  • John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    edited March 2016
    MaxPB said:

    We don't allow Nazi schools, so why allow Muslim schools? I see very little difference.

    Have a look at Steiner schools some time. Those who think they're primarily cuddly are very very mistaken. Himmler kept a biodynamic farm. Weleda did experiments at Dachau. I could go on.

    (Waits to find out whether any Steiner apologists pitch up. William Rees-Mogg is of that persuasion. Rumour has it that he recruited Michael Gove. Rumour may, of course, be wrong.)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240

    See it in less than 48 hours time.
    Is this Superman from Godfather II?
  • The comic book film I really want to see made is Arm Fall Off Boy

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arm-Fall-Off-Boy
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,188
    Wanderer said:

    Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

    Most will not even notice it, but about 30-40% will look at if for a few seconds before binning it (noting briefly some sort of effort and presence) and about 10% will skim-read, and 5% properly read it.

    If only a fifth of those who skim/properly read act differently, that's 20 extra votes for every 1 x 1,000 leaflet drop.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    RoyalBlue said:

    Wanderer said:

    Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

    Even if most do, a few reading them might make a difference in a close fight. No-one is saying it will move mountains, but IIRC there are studies out there showing that campaigning makes a small (but observable) difference.
    Have those studies split out the effects of leaflets vs canvassing though?
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    John_N said:

    MaxPB said:

    We don't allow Nazi schools, so why allow Muslim schools? I see very little difference.

    Have a look at Steiner schools some time. Those who think they're primarily cuddly are very very wrong. Himmler kept a biodynamic farm. Weleda did experiments at Dachau. I could go on.

    (waits to find out whether any Steiner apologists pitch up)
    Friend of mine used to teach at a Steiner school.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    See it in less than 48 hours time.
    Squeeeeeee
    My friend has already seen it.

    He thought it was ok without brilliant.

    Said Wonder Woman/Gal Godot is the best thing in it.

    Is going to be as divisive as Man of Steel.
    Since they have given up to any pretense of imagination in the movie business, why don't they make a Star Wars vs Star Trek movie ?
    Batman and Superman are in the same universe to be fair.
    And Star Wars is supposed to be in a galaxy far far away, that hasn't stopped Hollywood before.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Walked through Leicester Square tonight which was packed for the premiere but seems a bit of a cashcow movie to me and Ben Affleck will find it hard to fill Christian Bale's shoes
    Oh really, I wonder what was it that betrayed Batman vs Superman as a cashcow movie.

    Next time they should have a geriatric Captain Kirk fighting a geriatric Han Solo in Star Wars vs Star Trek.
    Again Batman and Superman are from the same stories. They're both Justice League and they've been together (and against each other) in countless comics down the years. If you care about these things its a credible story and like most of the best comic book movies it draws a lot from certain successful comic story arcs.

    There is no such backstory to Kirk v Solo. They're from separate universes.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240
    Speedy said:

    See it in less than 48 hours time.
    Squeeeeeee
    My friend has already seen it.

    He thought it was ok without brilliant.

    Said Wonder Woman/Gal Godot is the best thing in it.

    Is going to be as divisive as Man of Steel.
    Since they have given up to any pretense of imagination in the movie business, why don't they make a Star Wars vs Star Trek movie ?
    Or Frodo vs Gandalf: the War for Middle Earth.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Wanderer said:

    I see the abolitionists are out in force, how about we all live by the same rules, laws, call it what you like.

    Gay marriage? Yep, for anyone who wants it.
    Arranged marriage? Not for anybody who doesn't want it.
    FGM? Any prosecutions lately?
    Honour killings? Its called murder.

    Let's stop appeasing people with silly views about sex, marriage and homosexuality and live our lives. Have a look at the news if you fancy the alternative.

    Abolitionists?
    Ban the burkha, ban faith schools.

    Be honest, just say you don't like muslims.

    I'll be honest, there is a certain type of Muslim that I ain't keen on.
    Me too, the ones that blow up airports.

    But those wanting to ban faith schools don't want to close down the 1000s of CofE primary schools.

    Just be honest.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Charles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Interesting

    My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.

    So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.

    I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.
    If only Leave could organise themselves.
    I know we've had Leavers bemoaning the lack of organisation, but how many people on here have actually got out and done something practical to support Remain?
    I had an email from Vote Leave today complaining about the BSE leaflets that have been issued, and we've all received, and containing rebuttals to each one.

    Was there any mention of any forthcoming leaflet from them, with their arguments on it?

    No siree. No. Nothing at all. Nada.
    Isn't Peter Hargreaves sending something aroynd?

    By until the decision on which is the official campaign is made there's not much money and no free post. So it's prohibitive. I wonder who designed the rules in such a way that it favoured remain so much?
    In that case they need to tell us, and organise us accordingly using their network. There are plenty of volunteers.

    I've also volunteered to my "local area" organiser, but also haven't heard a pip.

    I currently planning to order a big box of leaflets and unilaterally carpet bomb my (rather large) village on my own.

    My wife thinks I need help.
    Tell the wife that if she helps you'd get it done in half the time! More seriously, there must be at least one other fellow lunatic in the village who will help.

    When Odiham votes 60/40 Leave you will get your recompense!
  • Wanderer said:

    I see the abolitionists are out in force, how about we all live by the same rules, laws, call it what you like.

    Gay marriage? Yep, for anyone who wants it.
    Arranged marriage? Not for anybody who doesn't want it.
    FGM? Any prosecutions lately?
    Honour killings? Its called murder.

    Let's stop appeasing people with silly views about sex, marriage and homosexuality and live our lives. Have a look at the news if you fancy the alternative.

    Abolitionists?
    Ban the burkha, ban faith schools.

    Be honest, just say you don't like muslims.

    I'll be honest, there is a certain type of Muslim that I ain't keen on.
    Me? Is it 'cause of my fashion tastes and music?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    In an article today William Hague suggests it was he who helped IDS to the leadership, he says he moved IDS to the shadow cabinet A-team 'in order to give him a crack at the leadership himself and partly to mess up the plans of others who thought they would succeed me. '

    Well his plan worked.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Wanderer said:

    Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

    Most will not even notice it, but about 30-40% will look at if for a few seconds before binning it (noting briefly some sort of effort and presence) and about 10% will skim-read, and 5% properly read it.

    If only a fifth of those who skim/properly read act differently, that's 20 extra votes for every 1 x 1,000 leaflet drop.
    That is potentially 300,000 extra votes.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Wanderer said:

    Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

    Most will not even notice it, but about 30-40% will look at if for a few seconds before binning it (noting briefly some sort of effort and presence) and about 10% will skim-read, and 5% properly read it.

    If only a fifth of those who skim/properly read act differently, that's 20 extra votes for every 1 x 1,000 leaflet drop.
    If we repeat it enough times we will start believing it...
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626

    Wanderer said:

    I see the abolitionists are out in force, how about we all live by the same rules, laws, call it what you like.

    Gay marriage? Yep, for anyone who wants it.
    Arranged marriage? Not for anybody who doesn't want it.
    FGM? Any prosecutions lately?
    Honour killings? Its called murder.

    Let's stop appeasing people with silly views about sex, marriage and homosexuality and live our lives. Have a look at the news if you fancy the alternative.

    Abolitionists?
    Ban the burkha, ban faith schools.

    Be honest, just say you don't like muslims.

    I'll be honest, there is a certain type of Muslim that I ain't keen on.
    Me? Is it 'cause of my fashion tastes and music?
    Taste? Well that's one way of describing it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Walked through Leicester Square tonight which was packed for the premiere but seems a bit of a cashcow movie to me and Ben Affleck will find it hard to fill Christian Bale's shoes
    Oh really, I wonder what was it that betrayed Batman vs Superman as a cashcow movie.

    Next time they should have a geriatric Captain Kirk fighting a geriatric Han Solo in Star Wars vs Star Trek.
    Lol statement of the obvious there and Star Wars v Star Trek could be next, heaven help us!

    Eddie the Eagle looks more fun (it also had a premiere last week where you could actually see the actors without large barriers) and High Rise looks more intellectually stimulating
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,188
    Sean_F said:

    Speedy said:

    See it in less than 48 hours time.
    Squeeeeeee
    My friend has already seen it.

    He thought it was ok without brilliant.

    Said Wonder Woman/Gal Godot is the best thing in it.

    Is going to be as divisive as Man of Steel.
    Since they have given up to any pretense of imagination in the movie business, why don't they make a Star Wars vs Star Trek movie ?
    Or Frodo vs Gandalf: the War for Middle Earth.
    James Bond vs Jean-Claude Juncker in You Only Vote Twice.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,188
    RoyalBlue said:

    Charles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Interesting

    My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.

    So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.

    I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.
    If only Leave could organise themselves.
    I know we've had Leavers bemoaning the lack of organisation, but how many people on here have actually got out and done something practical to support Remain?
    I had an email from Vote Leave today complaining about the BSE leaflets that have been issued, and we've all received, and containing rebuttals to each one.

    Was there any mention of any forthcoming leaflet from them, with their arguments on it?

    No siree. No. Nothing at all. Nada.
    Isn't Peter Hargreaves sending something aroynd?

    By until the decision on which is the official campaign is made there's not much money and no free post. So it's prohibitive. I wonder who designed the rules in such a way that it favoured remain so much?
    In that case they need to tell us, and organise us accordingly using their network. There are plenty of volunteers.

    I've also volunteered to my "local area" organiser, but also haven't heard a pip.

    I currently planning to order a big box of leaflets and unilaterally carpet bomb my (rather large) village on my own.

    My wife thinks I need help.
    Tell the wife that if she helps you'd get it done in half the time! More seriously, there must be at least one other fellow lunatic in the village who will help.

    When Odiham votes 60/40 Leave you will get your recompense!
    Odiham votes 90%+ Conservative/UKIP.

    We don't like the pinkos round here.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Wanderer said:

    Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

    Most will not even notice it, but about 30-40% will look at if for a few seconds before binning it (noting briefly some sort of effort and presence) and about 10% will skim-read, and 5% properly read it.

    If only a fifth of those who skim/properly read act differently, that's 20 extra votes for every 1 x 1,000 leaflet drop.
    I think this part - "if only a fifth of those who skim/properly read act differently" - is optimistic. Only a tiny proportion of skim-readers will change their minds. Careful readers will already be on your side.
  • Wanderer said:

    I see the abolitionists are out in force, how about we all live by the same rules, laws, call it what you like.

    Gay marriage? Yep, for anyone who wants it.
    Arranged marriage? Not for anybody who doesn't want it.
    FGM? Any prosecutions lately?
    Honour killings? Its called murder.

    Let's stop appeasing people with silly views about sex, marriage and homosexuality and live our lives. Have a look at the news if you fancy the alternative.

    Abolitionists?
    Ban the burkha, ban faith schools.

    Be honest, just say you don't like muslims.

    I'll be honest, there is a certain type of Muslim that I ain't keen on.
    Me too, the ones that blow up airports.

    But those wanting to ban faith schools don't want to close down the 1000s of CofE primary schools.

    Just be honest.
    I am being honest. I don't like death cult Muslims. To stop the spread of death cult Muslims throughout Europe, there are going to have to be some unpleasant, civil liberty reducing measures taken. On the subject of faith schools, I'm pretty much an atheist, so wouldn't really be upset if faith schools fell by the wayside, but the hard truth is that it aint the CofE schools that tend to spread Death Cultism.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    SeanT said:

    Wanderer said:

    I see the abolitionists are out in force, how about we all live by the same rules, laws, call it what you like.

    Gay marriage? Yep, for anyone who wants it.
    Arranged marriage? Not for anybody who doesn't want it.
    FGM? Any prosecutions lately?
    Honour killings? Its called murder.

    Let's stop appeasing people with silly views about sex, marriage and homosexuality and live our lives. Have a look at the news if you fancy the alternative.

    Abolitionists?
    Ban the burkha, ban faith schools.

    Be honest, just say you don't like muslims.

    I'll be honest, there is a certain type of Muslim that I ain't keen on.
    Me too, the ones that blow up airports.

    But those wanting to ban faith schools don't want to close down the 1000s of CofE primary schools.

    Just be honest.
    Yep. I'll be honest. I'd close down most of the Gestapo, sorry, Muslim schools, tomorrow. The Christian schools can remain.
    Good for you Sean, honesty. I have zero interest in what stupid fairytales people believe in. I just want everybody treated equally under one law.

    Meeks has called me homophobic, he doesn't shout it from inside a mosque.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MP_SE said:

    Wanderer said:

    Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

    Most will not even notice it, but about 30-40% will look at if for a few seconds before binning it (noting briefly some sort of effort and presence) and about 10% will skim-read, and 5% properly read it.

    If only a fifth of those who skim/properly read act differently, that's 20 extra votes for every 1 x 1,000 leaflet drop.
    That is potentially 300,000 extra votes.
    Leaflets are always useful, as long as they are reasonable, to the point, and not piling up the pavements and the gardens.
  • John_NJohn_N Posts: 389

    John_N said:

    MaxPB said:

    We don't allow Nazi schools, so why allow Muslim schools? I see very little difference.

    Have a look at Steiner schools some time. Those who think they're primarily cuddly are very very wrong. Himmler kept a biodynamic farm. Weleda did experiments at Dachau. I could go on.

    (waits to find out whether any Steiner apologists pitch up)
    Friend of mine used to teach at a Steiner school.
    Ask them whether they still believe that children choose their parents. Or that there are "great souls" up there, which will require, when incarnated, to be taught at Steiner schools. Or that white people have ascended from being black people in previous incarnations. They're absolute fruitcakes and dangerous with it, and while I'm here I'll mention that they are behind the preparing-for-Armageddon "Transition Towns" network. Reincarnation is a dangerous idea, as is the Muslim rubbish about 72 virgins.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    edited March 2016

    Wanderer said:

    Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

    Most will not even notice it, but about 30-40% will look at if for a few seconds before binning it (noting briefly some sort of effort and presence) and about 10% will skim-read, and 5% properly read it.

    If only a fifth of those who skim/properly read act differently, that's 20 extra votes for every 1 x 1,000 leaflet drop.
    Btw, I don't mean to disparage people's campaigning ardour. I'm just sceptical that leaflets are effective. Actually knocking on doors is another matter though. I would imagine that makes a huge difference and I greatly respect people that do it as it must take some balls.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RoyalBlue said:

    Wanderer said:

    Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

    Even if most do, a few reading them might make a difference in a close fight. No-one is saying it will move mountains, but IIRC there are studies out there showing that campaigning makes a small (but observable) difference.
    I did notice remain now claiming 3 m jobs are "linked" to the eu...
  • Wanderer said:

    I see the abolitionists are out in force, how about we all live by the same rules, laws, call it what you like.

    Gay marriage? Yep, for anyone who wants it.
    Arranged marriage? Not for anybody who doesn't want it.
    FGM? Any prosecutions lately?
    Honour killings? Its called murder.

    Let's stop appeasing people with silly views about sex, marriage and homosexuality and live our lives. Have a look at the news if you fancy the alternative.

    Abolitionists?
    Ban the burkha, ban faith schools.

    Be honest, just say you don't like muslims.

    I'll be honest, there is a certain type of Muslim that I ain't keen on.
    Me? Is it 'cause of my fashion tastes and music?
    I love your taste in music. We were at the same Depeche gig a few years back. I saw a youngish muslim lad wearing a double breasted suit jacket with jeans, can't remember the shoes, though... I often wonder if that was you!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    In an article today William Hague suggests it was he who helped IDS to the leadership, he says he moved IDS to the shadow cabinet A-team 'in order to give him a crack at the leadership himself and partly to mess up the plans of others who thought they would succeed me. '

    Well his plan worked.
    Yes some Frank Underwood from Hague there
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Wanderer said:

    I see the abolitionists are out in force, how about we all live by the same rules, laws, call it what you like.

    Gay marriage? Yep, for anyone who wants it.
    Arranged marriage? Not for anybody who doesn't want it.
    FGM? Any prosecutions lately?
    Honour killings? Its called murder.

    Let's stop appeasing people with silly views about sex, marriage and homosexuality and live our lives. Have a look at the news if you fancy the alternative.

    Abolitionists?
    Ban the burkha, ban faith schools.

    Be honest, just say you don't like muslims.

    I'll be honest, there is a certain type of Muslim that I ain't keen on.
    Me too, the ones that blow up airports.

    But those wanting to ban faith schools don't want to close down the 1000s of CofE primary schools.

    Just be honest.
    I am being honest. I don't like death cult Muslims. To stop the spread of death cult Muslims throughout Europe, there are going to have to be some unpleasant, civil liberty reducing measures taken. On the subject of faith schools, I'm pretty much an atheist, so wouldn't really be upset if faith schools fell by the wayside, but the hard truth is that it aint the CofE schools that tend to spread Death Cultism.
    You see that's where we part, I don't want my civil liberties reduced.
  • KippleKipple Posts: 17
    edited March 2016
    HYUFD said:

    High Rise looks more intellectually stimulating

    'High Rise' felt like it lost an important middle ten minutes in the edit.
  • Wanderer said:

    I see the abolitionists are out in force, how about we all live by the same rules, laws, call it what you like.

    Gay marriage? Yep, for anyone who wants it.
    Arranged marriage? Not for anybody who doesn't want it.
    FGM? Any prosecutions lately?
    Honour killings? Its called murder.

    Let's stop appeasing people with silly views about sex, marriage and homosexuality and live our lives. Have a look at the news if you fancy the alternative.

    Abolitionists?
    Ban the burkha, ban faith schools.

    Be honest, just say you don't like muslims.

    I'll be honest, there is a certain type of Muslim that I ain't keen on.
    Me? Is it 'cause of my fashion tastes and music?
    I love your taste in music. We were at the same Depeche gig a few years back. I saw a youngish muslim lad wearing a double breasted suit jacket with jeans, can't remember the shoes, though... I often wonder if that was you!
    Nah, I go for single breasted suits
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Things in Arizona are getting complicated and frustrating for voters:

    https://twitter.com/JoeDanaReports/status/712406060657672192

    Also there are problems with voter registration and many are forced to cast provisional ballots:

    http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/03/21/arizona-early-ballots-high-turnout-presidential-primary/82081164/
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    Charles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Interesting

    My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.

    So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.

    I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.
    If only Leave could organise themselves.
    I know we've had Leavers bemoaning the lack of organisation, but how many people on here have actually got out and done something practical to support Remain?
    I had an email from Vote Leave today complaining about the BSE leaflets that have been issued, and we've all received, and containing rebuttals to each one.

    Was there any mention of any forthcoming leaflet from them, with their arguments on it?

    No siree. No. Nothing at all. Nada.
    Isn't Peter Hargreaves sending something aroynd?

    By until the decision on which is the official campaign is made there's not much money and no free post. So it's prohibitive. I wonder who designed the rules in such a way that it favoured remain so much?
    In that case they need to tell us, and organise us accordingly using their network. There are plenty of volunteers.

    I've also volunteered to my "local area" organiser, but also haven't heard a pip.

    I currently planning to order a big box of leaflets and unilaterally carpet bomb my (rather large) village on my own.

    My wife thinks I need help.
    Tell the wife that if she helps you'd get it done in half the time! More seriously, there must be at least one other fellow lunatic in the village who will help.

    When Odiham votes 60/40 Leave you will get your recompense!
    Odiham votes 90%+ Conservative/UKIP.

    We don't like the pinkos round here.
    Marvellous! My own constituency has a stronger Bolshevik tendency with a mere 67% voting Tory/UKIP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    HYUFD said:

    Walked through Leicester Square tonight which was packed for the premiere but seems a bit of a cashcow movie to me and Ben Affleck will find it hard to fill Christian Bale's shoes
    Affleck's Wayne/Batman look to be the best bit of the film (from the trailers). Nailed the Miller Dark Knight look and feel.
    Well he can't be as bad as Clooney was!
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:

    Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

    Most will not even notice it, but about 30-40% will look at if for a few seconds before binning it (noting briefly some sort of effort and presence) and about 10% will skim-read, and 5% properly read it.

    If only a fifth of those who skim/properly read act differently, that's 20 extra votes for every 1 x 1,000 leaflet drop.
    Btw, I don't mean to disparage people's campaigning ardour. I'm just sceptical that leaflets are effective. Actually knocking on doors is another matter though. I would imagine that makes a huge difference and I greatly respect people that do it as it must take some balls.
    Camvassing is far more time consuming. You need to reach a threshold level of organisation first, which neither campaign has at the moment.
  • Wanderer said:

    I see the abolitionists are out in force, how about we all live by the same rules, laws, call it what you like.

    Gay marriage? Yep, for anyone who wants it.
    Arranged marriage? Not for anybody who doesn't want it.
    FGM? Any prosecutions lately?
    Honour killings? Its called murder.

    Let's stop appeasing people with silly views about sex, marriage and homosexuality and live our lives. Have a look at the news if you fancy the alternative.

    Abolitionists?
    Ban the burkha, ban faith schools.

    Be honest, just say you don't like muslims.

    I'll be honest, there is a certain type of Muslim that I ain't keen on.
    Me? Is it 'cause of my fashion tastes and music?
    I love your taste in music. We were at the same Depeche gig a few years back. I saw a youngish muslim lad wearing a double breasted suit jacket with jeans, can't remember the shoes, though... I often wonder if that was you!
    Nah, I go for single breasted suits
    Double breasted, pinstripe, looked an expensive cut, grey shirt with a skinny leather tie and Levi 501s, hair in a Gahan quiff, he genuinely looked stylish, so on reflection, it couldn't have been you!
  • Speedy said:

    MP_SE said:

    Wanderer said:

    Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

    Most will not even notice it, but about 30-40% will look at if for a few seconds before binning it (noting briefly some sort of effort and presence) and about 10% will skim-read, and 5% properly read it.

    If only a fifth of those who skim/properly read act differently, that's 20 extra votes for every 1 x 1,000 leaflet drop.
    That is potentially 300,000 extra votes.
    Leaflets are always useful, as long as they are reasonable, to the point, and not piling up the pavements and the gardens.
    Trouble is they are coinciding with the local and here in Wales the Assembly elections and there are so many coming in daily that they are binned without even looking who they are from. They are in the same category as nuisance calls
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited March 2016
    MP_SE said:

    Wanderer said:

    Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

    Most will not even notice it, but about 30-40% will look at if for a few seconds before binning it (noting briefly some sort of effort and presence) and about 10% will skim-read, and 5% properly read it.

    If only a fifth of those who skim/properly read act differently, that's 20 extra votes for every 1 x 1,000 leaflet drop.
    That is potentially 300,000 extra votes.
    In what looks like a tight race those could be crucial. Leave do not want to end up like Yes holding mass meetings and winning the Twitter war while their opponents do the hard grind of winning swing voters
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935

    ...and this becomes (like I'd feared for years) a proxy referendum on immigration. So far that hasn't happened...

    Dear God in Heaven above, of course it's a proxy vote on immigration.

    Anti-immigration has been driving OUT since at least 2011, when immigration became the number one issue. Whether it's anti-Eastern European immigration post 2004, or anti-Romanian immigration post-2007, or anti-Muslim immigration post-Cologne (see Allison Pearson in January), the EU referendum, is driven, nourished, maintained and energised by anti-immigration feeling.

    Don't believe me? We have tykejohnno[1] telling you that there will be an immigation advert blitz before the ref. We have Leave canvassers reporting and Remain canvassers reporting, and the majority topic of the canvassed is immigration and border control. I have stood next to Vote Leave campaigners and listened to those who stop to speak. You have Allison Pearson (again) tweeting thus following the Brussels bombing.

    It's immigration, immigration, immigration all the way. To refuse to acknowledge this is a Pontius Pilate[2] level of denial.


    [1] Dude, apols if I got you mixed up with someone else
    [2] Am I the first person to get a Bible reference on PB.com?
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Kipple said:

    HYUFD said:

    High Rise looks more intellectually stimulating

    'High Rise' felt like it lost an important middle ten minutes in the edit.
    Not see High Rise yet but I'm a big fan of Mr Wheatley's work.
  • KippleKipple Posts: 17

    Kipple said:

    HYUFD said:

    High Rise looks more intellectually stimulating

    'High Rise' felt like it lost an important middle ten minutes in the edit.
    Not see High Rise yet but I'm a big fan of Mr Wheatley's work.
    Ditto - but i was hoping for something fantastic rather than something merely better than the majority.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Leaflets confirm not convert, vegetarians don't order a delivered doner kebab because of a flyer, but a lazy Remainer might be stirred to vote if a Leaflet confirms that Brexit will cost them their job.
  • AndrewD said:

    MaxPB said:

    runnymede said:

    'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

    Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

    Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.
    I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.
    In Selly Oak, Birmingham, South Birmingham Primary Health Care Trust has a board which fronts the road: it say Welcome in English and a dozen or so Asian/Arabic languages (no European languages). Ding-dong ...
  • John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    edited March 2016
    John_N said:

    John_N said:

    MaxPB said:

    We don't allow Nazi schools, so why allow Muslim schools? I see very little difference.

    Have a look at Steiner schools some time. Those who think they're primarily cuddly are very very wrong. Himmler kept a biodynamic farm. Weleda did experiments at Dachau. I could go on.

    (waits to find out whether any Steiner apologists pitch up)
    Friend of mine used to teach at a Steiner school.
    Ask them whether they still believe that children choose their parents. Or that there are "great souls" up there, which will require, when incarnated, to be taught at Steiner schools. Or that white people have ascended from being black people in previous incarnations. They're absolute fruitcakes and dangerous with it, and while I'm here I'll mention that they are behind the preparing-for-Armageddon "Transition Towns" network. Reincarnation is a dangerous idea, as is the Muslim rubbish about 72 virgins.
    I almost forgot! Ask them about burying cow horns, filling them with dung, and stirring the dung in a figure of eight. Also about the visits by "first class" people. Steinerites are utter kooks.

    The Steiner organisation is very influential in the Stroud area of Gloucestershire, near where the British crown prince has a big mansion. He praises Steiner in his kooky book "Harmony" too.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Walked through Leicester Square tonight which was packed for the premiere but seems a bit of a cashcow movie to me and Ben Affleck will find it hard to fill Christian Bale's shoes
    Affleck's Wayne/Batman look to be the best bit of the film (from the trailers). Nailed the Miller Dark Knight look and feel.
    Well he can't be as bad as Clooney was!
    Clooney was fine in the role, given the camp potential of the character (Adam West anyone?) he played it fine. He was let down by the production.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240
    RoyalBlue said:

    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:

    Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

    Most will not even notice it, but about 30-40% will look at if for a few seconds before binning it (noting briefly some sort of effort and presence) and about 10% will skim-read, and 5% properly read it.

    If only a fifth of those who skim/properly read act differently, that's 20 extra votes for every 1 x 1,000 leaflet drop.
    Btw, I don't mean to disparage people's campaigning ardour. I'm just sceptical that leaflets are effective. Actually knocking on doors is another matter though. I would imagine that makes a huge difference and I greatly respect people that do it as it must take some balls.
    Camvassing is far more time consuming. You need to reach a threshold level of organisation first, which neither campaign has at the moment.
    Canvassing is at its best when you have years' of data, and you're focusing on turning out supporters in marginal wards and seats. That doesn't apply to either side. Leafletting and public meetings ar the best use of time.
  • Usual Newsnight BBC cr*p talking about the Brussels murders without blaming islam. Have now a young muslim blaming lack of work, under qualified, over qualified etc etc..
    On and on a 30 minute exercise in burying heads in the sand.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,517
    edited March 2016
    Wanderer said:



    Btw, I don't mean to disparage people's campaigning ardour. I'm just sceptical that leaflets are effective. Actually knocking on doors is another matter though. I would imagine that makes a huge difference and I greatly respect people that do it as it must take some balls.

    No, I've been doing it for nearly 50 years now, and the number of people who were what I'd call rude is in single figures. You should try it. Sure, you get people saying "Not interested", or "Labour? No way.", but people don't tell you to f*** off - the instinct to be reasonably polite to someone on your doorstep takes over. Often you get a pleasant short chat, even with opponents - I always remember the one who said, "I read the Mail, and what I see there makes me vote Tory. I do realise I'm getting a one-sided picture, but my life is so busy don't have time for a serious paper at the moment. I'm really sorry." The most courteous, apropos of the last thread, tend to be of Asian origin - canvassing in Leicester during the Iraq war for a pro-war white candidate against an Asian LibDem in a strongly Asian area, I have never heard so many different ways of saying that they were terribly sorry, but on this occasion, sadly...

    Ironically, my wife once tried leafleting, and in the very first house she went to, the woman pursued her down the drive, shouting "How DARE you put this trash in my letterbox!" She was not enthused by the experience and has not made a habit of it.
  • viewcode said:

    ...and this becomes (like I'd feared for years) a proxy referendum on immigration. So far that hasn't happened...

    Dear God in Heaven above, of course it's a proxy vote on immigration.

    Anti-immigration has been driving OUT since at least 2011, when immigration became the number one issue. Whether it's anti-Eastern European immigration post 2004, or anti-Romanian immigration post-2007, or anti-Muslim immigration post-Cologne (see Allison Pearson in January), the EU referendum, is driven, nourished, maintained and energised by anti-immigration feeling.

    Don't believe me? We have tykejohnno[1] telling you that there will be an immigation advert blitz before the ref. We have Leave canvassers reporting and Remain canvassers reporting, and the majority topic of the canvassed is immigration and border control. I have stood next to Vote Leave campaigners and listened to those who stop to speak. You have Allison Pearson (again) tweeting thus following the Brussels bombing.

    It's immigration, immigration, immigration all the way. To refuse to acknowledge this is a Pontius Pilate[2] level of denial.


    [1] Dude, apols if I got you mixed up with someone else
    [2] Am I the first person to get a Bible reference on PB.com?
    No

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/03/30/david-herdson-calls-for-an-easter-resurrection-of-pontius-pilates-reputation/
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    John_N said:

    John_N said:

    John_N said:

    MaxPB said:

    We don't allow Nazi schools, so why allow Muslim schools? I see very little difference.

    Have a look at Steiner schools some time. Those who think they're primarily cuddly are very very wrong. Himmler kept a biodynamic farm. Weleda did experiments at Dachau. I could go on.

    (waits to find out whether any Steiner apologists pitch up)
    Friend of mine used to teach at a Steiner school.
    Ask them whether they still believe that children choose their parents. Or that there are "great souls" up there, which will require, when incarnated, to be taught at Steiner schools. Or that white people have ascended from being black people in previous incarnations. They're absolute fruitcakes and dangerous with it, and while I'm here I'll mention that they are behind the preparing-for-Armageddon "Transition Towns" network. Reincarnation is a dangerous idea, as is the Muslim rubbish about 72 virgins.
    I almost forgot! Ask them about burying cow horns, filling them with dung, and stirring the dung in a figure of eight. Also about the visits by "first class" people. Steinerites are utter kooks.
    I've heard some batshit crazy stuff from him but this is new. Will ask.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited March 2016

    Usual Newsnight BBC cr*p talking about the Brussels murders without blaming islam. Have now a young muslim blaming lack of work, under qualified, over qualified etc etc..
    On and on a 30 minute exercise in burying heads in the sand.

    On nights like tonight, they might as well just run a repeat of similar nights. Its the same crap. And then we know what it will be tomorrow, and the next day and the day after that....before dropping the subject and returning to complaining about zero hour contracts and Sports Direct.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935
    edited March 2016



    More quoting of the pure poetry that is the script of The Untouchables.


    "I have become what I beheld and I am content that I have done right".

    Costner muffs the delivery slightly. He's not really good at speeches, which makes it surprising he was given them in this and JFK. Imagine what somebody with a gift for cadence could have done with it: say, Godfather II-era Pacino (not the later shouty mushy version). It's a Mamet script and he's prevented from swearing, so he has to write proper words, and he's good...

    "I have foresworn myself. I have broken every law I have sworn to uphold..."

    [Edit: remove doublequote]
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Wanderer said:



    Btw, I don't mean to disparage people's campaigning ardour. I'm just sceptical that leaflets are effective. Actually knocking on doors is another matter though. I would imagine that makes a huge difference and I greatly respect people that do it as it must take some balls.

    No, I've been doing it for nearly 50 years now, and the number of people who were what I'd call rude is in single figures. You should try it. Sure, you get people saying "Not interested", or "Labour? No way.", but people don't tell you to f*** off - the instinct to be reasonably polite to someone on your doorstep takes over. Often you get a pleasant short chat, even with opponents - I always remember the one who said, "I read the Mail, and what I see there makes me vote Tory. I do realise I'm getting a one-sided picture, but my life is so busy don't have time for a serious paper at the moment. I'm really sorry." The most courteous, apropos of the last thread, tend to be of Asian origin - canvassing in Leicester during the Iraq war for a pro-war white candidate against an Asian LibDem in a strongly Asian area, I have never heard so many different ways of saying that they were terribly sorry, but on this occasion, sadly...

    Ironically, my wife once tried leafleting, and in the very first house she went to, the woman pursued her down the drive, shouting "How DARE you put this trash in my letterbox!" She was not enthused by the experience and has not made a habit of it.
    Agree entirely, last year I knocked on thousands of doors, we received virtually no abuse. The British public are polite and magnanimous, if disinterested.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Another 2-3 hours to fill in until results start to come in from Arizona, so here is Ted Cruz trying to get Bloomberg to endorse him :

    https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/712395749955338244

    It is awkward to see a christian fundamentalist who has publicly denounced N.York to try and get votes from N.York .
  • Wanderer said:



    Btw, I don't mean to disparage people's campaigning ardour. I'm just sceptical that leaflets are effective. Actually knocking on doors is another matter though. I would imagine that makes a huge difference and I greatly respect people that do it as it must take some balls.

    No, I've been doing it for nearly 50 years now, and the number of people who were what I'd call rude is in single figures. You should try it. Sure, you get people saying "Not interested", or "Labour? No way.", but people don't tell you to f*** off - the instinct to be reasonably polite to someone on your doorstep takes over. Often you get a pleasant short chat, even with opponents - I always remember the one who said, "I read the Mail, and what I see there makes me vote Tory. I do realise I'm getting a one-sided picture, but my life is so busy don't have time for a serious paper at the moment. I'm really sorry." The most courteous, apropos of the last thread, tend to be of Asian origin - canvassing in Leicester during the Iraq war for a pro-war white candidate against an Asian LibDem in a strongly Asian area, I have never heard so many different ways of saying that they were terribly sorry, but on this occasion, sadly...

    Ironically, my wife once tried leafleting, and in the very first house she went to, the woman pursued her down the drive, shouting "How DARE you put this trash in my letterbox!" She was not enthused by the experience and has not made a habit of it.
    My favourite canvassing experience was getting told off by a man saying very loudly

    'I'll never vote for you sodding Tories'

    he then went sotto voce and said

    'Sorry about that, have to put on a show, the Mrs would kill me if she knew I was a Tory'
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Wanderer said:



    Btw, I don't mean to disparage people's campaigning ardour. I'm just sceptical that leaflets are effective. Actually knocking on doors is another matter though. I would imagine that makes a huge difference and I greatly respect people that do it as it must take some balls.

    No, I've been doing it for nearly 50 years now, and the number of people who were what I'd call rude is in single figures. You should try it. Sure, you get people saying "Not interested", or "Labour? No way.", but people don't tell you to f*** off - the instinct to be reasonably polite to someone on your doorstep takes over. Often you get a pleasant short chat, even with opponents - I always remember the one who said, "I read the Mail, and what I see there makes me vote Tory. I do realise I'm getting a one-sided picture, but my life is so busy don't have time for a serious paper at the moment. I'm really sorry." The most courteous, apropos of the last thread, tend to be of Asian origin - canvassing in Leicester during the Iraq war for a pro-war white candidate against an Asian LibDem in a strongly Asian area, I have never heard so many different ways of saying that they were terribly sorry, but on this occasion, sadly...

    Ironically, my wife once tried leafleting, and in the very first house she went to, the woman pursued her down the drive, shouting "How DARE you put this trash in my letterbox!" She was not enthused by the experience and has not made a habit of it.
    When canvassing in Eltham, I distinctly remember handing someone a leaflet who then ran after me to give it back.
  • viewcode said:

    ...and this becomes (like I'd feared for years) a proxy referendum on immigration. So far that hasn't happened...

    Dear God in Heaven above, of course it's a proxy vote on immigration.

    Anti-immigration has been driving OUT since at least 2011, when immigration became the number one issue. Whether it's anti-Eastern European immigration post 2004, or anti-Romanian immigration post-2007, or anti-Muslim immigration post-Cologne (see Allison Pearson in January), the EU referendum, is driven, nourished, maintained and energised by anti-immigration feeling.

    Don't believe me? We have tykejohnno[1] telling you that there will be an immigation advert blitz before the ref. We have Leave canvassers reporting and Remain canvassers reporting, and the majority topic of the canvassed is immigration and border control. I have stood next to Vote Leave campaigners and listened to those who stop to speak. You have Allison Pearson (again) tweeting thus following the Brussels bombing.

    It's immigration, immigration, immigration all the way. To refuse to acknowledge this is a Pontius Pilate[2] level of denial.


    [1] Dude, apols if I got you mixed up with someone else
    [2] Am I the first person to get a Bible reference on PB.com?
    Brussels, 22 March 2016, was, essentially, about immigration. So was Paris, November 2013 ...
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Wanderer said:



    Btw, I don't mean to disparage people's campaigning ardour. I'm just sceptical that leaflets are effective. Actually knocking on doors is another matter though. I would imagine that makes a huge difference and I greatly respect people that do it as it must take some balls.

    No, I've been doing it for nearly 50 years now, and the number of people who were what I'd call rude is in single figures. You should try it. Sure, you get people saying "Not interested", or "Labour? No way.", but people don't tell you to f*** off - the instinct to be reasonably polite to someone on your doorstep takes over. Often you get a pleasant short chat, even with opponents - I always remember the one who said, "I read the Mail, and what I see there makes me vote Tory. I do realise I'm getting a one-sided picture, but my life is so busy don't have time for a serious paper at the moment. I'm really sorry." The most courteous, apropos of the last thread, tend to be of Asian origin - canvassing in Leicester during the Iraq war for a pro-war white candidate against an Asian LibDem in a strongly Asian area, I have never heard so many different ways of saying that they were terribly sorry, but on this occasion, sadly...

    Ironically, my wife once tried leafleting, and in the very first house she went to, the woman pursued her down the drive, shouting "How DARE you put this trash in my letterbox!" She was not enthused by the experience and has not made a habit of it.
    There's a Conservative I know who claims that he was once chased down a street in south London by a woman with a broom shouting, "It's the Tories! He's the bloody Tories!"
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    viewcode said:

    ...and this becomes (like I'd feared for years) a proxy referendum on immigration. So far that hasn't happened...

    Dear God in Heaven above, of course it's a proxy vote on immigration.

    Anti-immigration has been driving OUT since at least 2011, when immigration became the number one issue. Whether it's anti-Eastern European immigration post 2004, or anti-Romanian immigration post-2007, or anti-Muslim immigration post-Cologne (see Allison Pearson in January), the EU referendum, is driven, nourished, maintained and energised by anti-immigration feeling.

    Don't believe me? We have tykejohnno[1] telling you that there will be an immigation advert blitz before the ref. We have Leave canvassers reporting and Remain canvassers reporting, and the majority topic of the canvassed is immigration and border control. I have stood next to Vote Leave campaigners and listened to those who stop to speak. You have Allison Pearson (again) tweeting thus following the Brussels bombing.

    It's immigration, immigration, immigration all the way. To refuse to acknowledge this is a Pontius Pilate[2] level of denial.


    [1] Dude, apols if I got you mixed up with someone else
    [2] Am I the first person to get a Bible reference on PB.com?
    Call me delusional if you like but Gove and Hannan and multiple other Vote Leave personalities have barely mentioned immigration as a reason to Vote Leave - in fact the Vote Leave website barely mentions migration in its slide presentation: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/our_case

    Alison Pearson and others may fall under the Leave.EU/Farage etc alternative but that is why the two alternatives exists. Farage can appeal to the likes of Pearson, Gove can appeal to the likes of me.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    People who answer the door in their dressing gowns are invariably socialists. There must be a moral somewhere in there...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Kipple said:

    HYUFD said:

    High Rise looks more intellectually stimulating

    'High Rise' felt like it lost an important middle ten minutes in the edit.
    Will find out when I see it but Eddie the Eagle first up for me
  • John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    edited March 2016
    viewcode said:

    ...and this becomes (like I'd feared for years) a proxy referendum on immigration. So far that hasn't happened...

    Dear God in Heaven above, of course it's a proxy vote on immigration.

    Anti-immigration has been driving OUT since at least 2011, when immigration became the number one issue. Whether it's anti-Eastern European immigration post 2004, or anti-Romanian immigration post-2007, or anti-Muslim immigration post-Cologne (see Allison Pearson in January), the EU referendum, is driven, nourished, maintained and energised by anti-immigration feeling.

    Don't believe me? We have tykejohnno[1] telling you that there will be an immigation advert blitz before the ref. We have Leave canvassers reporting and Remain canvassers reporting, and the majority topic of the canvassed is immigration and border control. I have stood next to Vote Leave campaigners and listened to those who stop to speak. You have Allison Pearson (again) tweeting thus following the Brussels bombing.

    It's immigration, immigration, immigration all the way. To refuse to acknowledge this is a Pontius Pilate[2] level of denial.
    You are absolutely right about this, and it's remarkable that even some politico types still don't recognise it.

    So many people think that the problems associated with immigration have been IGNORED by politicians for so long, and that AT LAST they, the voters, have got a chance to send the authorities a message about immigration, that Leave will walk this vote. I'll be very surprised if they don't beat Remain by more than 10%.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Walked through Leicester Square tonight which was packed for the premiere but seems a bit of a cashcow movie to me and Ben Affleck will find it hard to fill Christian Bale's shoes
    Affleck's Wayne/Batman look to be the best bit of the film (from the trailers). Nailed the Miller Dark Knight look and feel.
    Well he can't be as bad as Clooney was!
    Clooney was fine in the role, given the camp potential of the character (Adam West anyone?) he played it fine. He was let down by the production.
    Perhaps but it is the worst Batman film
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:

    Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

    Most will not even notice it, but about 30-40% will look at if for a few seconds before binning it (noting briefly some sort of effort and presence) and about 10% will skim-read, and 5% properly read it.

    If only a fifth of those who skim/properly read act differently, that's 20 extra votes for every 1 x 1,000 leaflet drop.
    Btw, I don't mean to disparage people's campaigning ardour. I'm just sceptical that leaflets are effective. Actually knocking on doors is another matter though. I would imagine that makes a huge difference and I greatly respect people that do it as it must take some balls.
    Camvassing is far more time consuming. You need to reach a threshold level of organisation first, which neither campaign has at the moment.
    Canvassing is at its best when you have years' of data, and you're focusing on turning out supporters in marginal wards and seats. That doesn't apply to either side. Leafletting and public meetings ar the best use of time.
    Will always remember @Ios telling us that Labour voters need to be reminded there is a general election on.
  • Wanderer said:

    I see the abolitionists are out in force, how about we all live by the same rules, laws, call it what you like.

    Gay marriage? Yep, for anyone who wants it.
    Arranged marriage? Not for anybody who doesn't want it.
    FGM? Any prosecutions lately?
    Honour killings? Its called murder.

    Let's stop appeasing people with silly views about sex, marriage and homosexuality and live our lives. Have a look at the news if you fancy the alternative.

    Abolitionists?
    Ban the burkha, ban faith schools.

    Be honest, just say you don't like muslims.

    I'll be honest, there is a certain type of Muslim that I ain't keen on.
    Me? Is it 'cause of my fashion tastes and music?
    I love your taste in music. We were at the same Depeche gig a few years back. I saw a youngish muslim lad wearing a double breasted suit jacket with jeans, can't remember the shoes, though... I often wonder if that was you!
    Nah, I go for single breasted suits
    Double breasted, pinstripe, looked an expensive cut, grey shirt with a skinny leather tie and Levi 501s, hair in a Gahan quiff, he genuinely looked stylish, so on reflection, it couldn't have been you!
    My fashion tastes have been described in the following two ways

    1) I hate epileptics, and wear epileptic attack inducing outfits

    2) Like Salvador Dali and Jackson Pollack got drunk and had a paint fight
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited March 2016
    HYUFD said:

    MP_SE said:

    Wanderer said:

    Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

    Most will not even notice it, but about 30-40% will look at if for a few seconds before binning it (noting briefly some sort of effort and presence) and about 10% will skim-read, and 5% properly read it.

    If only a fifth of those who skim/properly read act differently, that's 20 extra votes for every 1 x 1,000 leaflet drop.
    That is potentially 300,000 extra votes.
    In what looks like a tight race those could be crucial. Leave do not want to end up like Yes holding mass meetings and winning the Twitter war while their opponents do the hard grind of winning swing voters
    Indeed. Farage's and his town hall meetings in Thanet South being another good example.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:



    Btw, I don't mean to disparage people's campaigning ardour. I'm just sceptical that leaflets are effective. Actually knocking on doors is another matter though. I would imagine that makes a huge difference and I greatly respect people that do it as it must take some balls.

    No, I've been doing it for nearly 50 years now, and the number of people who were what I'd call rude is in single figures. You should try it. Sure, you get people saying "Not interested", or "Labour? No way.", but people don't tell you to f*** off - the instinct to be reasonably polite to someone on your doorstep takes over. Often you get a pleasant short chat, even with opponents - I always remember the one who said, "I read the Mail, and what I see there makes me vote Tory. I do realise I'm getting a one-sided picture, but my life is so busy don't have time for a serious paper at the moment. I'm really sorry." The most courteous, apropos of the last thread, tend to be of Asian origin - canvassing in Leicester during the Iraq war for a pro-war white candidate against an Asian LibDem in a strongly Asian area, I have never heard so many different ways of saying that they were terribly sorry, but on this occasion, sadly...

    Ironically, my wife once tried leafleting, and in the very first house she went to, the woman pursued her down the drive, shouting "How DARE you put this trash in my letterbox!" She was not enthused by the experience and has not made a habit of it.
    There's a Conservative I know who claims that he was once chased down a street in south London by a woman with a broom shouting, "It's the Tories! He's the bloody Tories!"
    It is remarkable that in so many cases in many different areas people who you meet when delivering leaflets at their door say "thank you" when they haven't seen what you have given them and you are not wearing an identifying rosette.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935

    Not see High Rise yet but I'm a big fan of Mr Wheatley's work.

    Sure about that? Into the Dalek was pretty derivative... ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    SeanT said:

    Usual Newsnight BBC cr*p talking about the Brussels murders without blaming islam. Have now a young muslim blaming lack of work, under qualified, over qualified etc etc..
    On and on a 30 minute exercise in burying heads in the sand.

    Just watched that. Blaming "alienation" of Muslims in.... Belgium. One of the richest, most tolerant, most liberal and undemanding of states on earth. And very generous with welfare.

    Let's face it, fucking ugly whining bearded Muslims will exploit this European cowardice until we stand up and say STOP. We have bent over backwards, and you've bombed our airports, shops, subways.

    And still we tolerate your organised racist gang rape, your FGM, cousin marriage, forced marriage, misogyny, burqas, and overt disgust at our culture. UGH.

    ENOUGH. We have to stand up and say we find modern Islam disgusting and repulsive. We want it to GO. To GO AWAY. We want Muslims to LEAVE Europe, not ENTER. And they can LEAVE until they can prove that they are capable of being civilised and liberal human beings, which doesn't look likely any time soon.
    You should have seen the American apologist (who is based in Brussels) on Sky. She was on within 2hrs of the attack and was blaming racist Belgium society...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935
    John_N said:

    viewcode said:

    ...and this becomes (like I'd feared for years) a proxy referendum on immigration. So far that hasn't happened...

    Dear God in Heaven above, of course it's a proxy vote on immigration.

    Anti-immigration has been driving OUT since at least 2011, when immigration became the number one issue. Whether it's anti-Eastern European immigration post 2004, or anti-Romanian immigration post-2007, or anti-Muslim immigration post-Cologne (see Allison Pearson in January), the EU referendum, is driven, nourished, maintained and energised by anti-immigration feeling.

    Don't believe me? We have tykejohnno[1] telling you that there will be an immigation advert blitz before the ref. We have Leave canvassers reporting and Remain canvassers reporting, and the majority topic of the canvassed is immigration and border control. I have stood next to Vote Leave campaigners and listened to those who stop to speak. You have Allison Pearson (again) tweeting thus following the Brussels bombing.

    It's immigration, immigration, immigration all the way. To refuse to acknowledge this is a Pontius Pilate[2] level of denial.
    You are absolutely right about this, and it's remarkable that even some politico types still don't recognise it.

    So many people think that the problems associated with immigration have been IGNORED by politicians for so long, and that AT LAST they, the voters, have got a chance to send the authorities a message about immigration, that Leave will walk this vote. I'll be very surprised if they don't beat Remain by more than 10%.
    My prediction (for some time now) has been 55% LEAVE, 45% REMAIN. Nothing is happening to make me revise LEAVE downwards.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,440
    edited March 2016
    From The Times

    The two biggest figures in British law enforcement warn today that the safety of the nation and fight against crime would be put at risk by leaving the European Union.

    Theresa May, the home secretary, told The Times that essential intelligence from European partners, catching criminals and extraditing suspects would be under threat if Britain left.....

    .....Their comments were made shortly before the Brussels atrocities, which came four months after the Paris attacks that killed 130.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4719456.ece
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    perdix said:

    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:



    Btw, I don't mean to disparage people's campaigning ardour. I'm just sceptical that leaflets are effective. Actually knocking on doors is another matter though. I would imagine that makes a huge difference and I greatly respect people that do it as it must take some balls.

    No, I've been doing it for nearly 50 years now, and the number of people who were what I'd call rude is in single figures. You should try it. Sure, you get people saying "Not interested", or "Labour? No way.", but people don't tell you to f*** off - the instinct to be reasonably polite to someone on your doorstep takes over. Often you get a pleasant short chat, even with opponents - I always remember the one who said, "I read the Mail, and what I see there makes me vote Tory. I do realise I'm getting a one-sided picture, but my life is so busy don't have time for a serious paper at the moment. I'm really sorry." The most courteous, apropos of the last thread, tend to be of Asian origin - canvassing in Leicester during the Iraq war for a pro-war white candidate against an Asian LibDem in a strongly Asian area, I have never heard so many different ways of saying that they were terribly sorry, but on this occasion, sadly...

    Ironically, my wife once tried leafleting, and in the very first house she went to, the woman pursued her down the drive, shouting "How DARE you put this trash in my letterbox!" She was not enthused by the experience and has not made a habit of it.
    There's a Conservative I know who claims that he was once chased down a street in south London by a woman with a broom shouting, "It's the Tories! He's the bloody Tories!"
    It is remarkable that in so many cases in many different areas people who you meet when delivering leaflets at their door say "thank you" when they haven't seen what you have given them and you are not wearing an identifying rosette.

    Is that not just general British politeness?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    From The Times

    The two biggest figures in British law enforcement warn today that the safety of the nation and fight against crime would be put at risk by leaving the European Union.

    Theresa May, the home secretary, told The Times that essential intelligence from European partners, catching criminals and extraditing suspects would be under threat if Britain left.....

    .....Their comments were made shortly before the Brussels atrocities, which came four months after the Paris attacks that killed 130.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4719456.ece

    Hahaha.
    Talking about bad timing.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    From The Times

    The two biggest figures in British law enforcement warn today that the safety of the nation and fight against crime would be put at risk by leaving the European Union.

    Theresa May, the home secretary, told The Times that essential intelligence from European partners, catching criminals and extraditing suspects would be under threat if Britain left.....

    .....Their comments were made shortly before the Brussels atrocities, which came four months after the Paris attacks that killed 130.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4719456.ece

    In the words of Jimmy Jones, 'You need timin'...good timin''

  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    RoyalBlue said:

    People who answer the door in their dressing gowns are invariably socialists. There must be a moral somewhere in there...

    I answer the door in my dressing gown to Tesco delivery men.

    TMI, I know...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    On immigration/Brexit:

    It is far and away the main topic to be discussed in relation to Brexit that I have come across. Mostly garbage spoken on the subject though, such as how it would keep out those in the Calais camp.
  • From The Times

    The two biggest figures in British law enforcement warn today that the safety of the nation and fight against crime would be put at risk by leaving the European Union.

    Theresa May, the home secretary, told The Times that essential intelligence from European partners, catching criminals and extraditing suspects would be under threat if Britain left.....

    .....Their comments were made shortly before the Brussels atrocities, which came four months after the Paris attacks that killed 130.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4719456.ece

    I just don't understand that, to be honest. It makes no sense for mainland Europe to say "up yours, we ain't sharing intelligence on naughty people" just because we're not in the EU. Do the French, Belgians and Germans not cooperate with the US? Do they tell the Australians to eff off? It's just crazy.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    RoyalBlue said:

    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:

    Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

    Most will not even notice it, but about 30-40% will look at if for a few seconds before binning it (noting briefly some sort of effort and presence) and about 10% will skim-read, and 5% properly read it.

    If only a fifth of those who skim/properly read act differently, that's 20 extra votes for every 1 x 1,000 leaflet drop.
    Btw, I don't mean to disparage people's campaigning ardour. I'm just sceptical that leaflets are effective. Actually knocking on doors is another matter though. I would imagine that makes a huge difference and I greatly respect people that do it as it must take some balls.
    Camvassing is far more time consuming. You need to reach a threshold level of organisation first, which neither campaign has at the moment.
    I had to smile when you said canvassers must have balls. I've been canvassing for 15 years or so with various colleagues and have seen that the most effective and resilient are very often women.
    I agree that generally canvassing is troublefree, apart from the odd feck off, but I do know a male colleague who was assaulted not so long ago. Fair play he chuckles about it now and it hasn't stopped him knocking on doors.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited March 2016

    From The Times

    The two biggest figures in British law enforcement warn today that the safety of the nation and fight against crime would be put at risk by leaving the European Union.

    Theresa May, the home secretary, told The Times that essential intelligence from European partners, catching criminals and extraditing suspects would be under threat if Britain left.....

    .....Their comments were made shortly before the Brussels atrocities, which came four months after the Paris attacks that killed 130.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4719456.ece

    Putting aside today, these claims are about as believable as us not having a trade agreement. It is in every bodies interests to carry on intelligence sharing etc, besides we have found from Snowdon we do the US dirty business and the US do it for us. The US don't do the same for the French or Germans, they just spy on them. So it is very much in the EU interest to keep all channels open, otherwise they will be relying on the likes of the Belgium security services that are a joke.
  • From The Times

    The two biggest figures in British law enforcement warn today that the safety of the nation and fight against crime would be put at risk by leaving the European Union.

    Theresa May, the home secretary, told The Times that essential intelligence from European partners, catching criminals and extraditing suspects would be under threat if Britain left.....

    .....Their comments were made shortly before the Brussels atrocities, which came four months after the Paris attacks that killed 130.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4719456.ece

    And, yet, one of our most successful Home Secretaries stated on Tuesday night:

    “The European Union, in its current form, is a flawed and failing project which is making many of its inhabitants poorer than they should or need be and is failing to keep its people safe.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/12201677/Brussels-attacks-Europe-is-acting-as-a-welcome-sign-to-terrorists-warns-former-Tory-leader.html

    After today's events, Cameron and May might be more convincing if they admitted that the EU was failing to keep its people safe
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Scott_P said:
    So will the poor get more aid from the SNP, no according to the SNP.
    Will the rich pay more taxes to the SNP, no according to the SNP.

    So what's the point of left wingers voting for the SNP ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    RoyalBlue said:

    People who answer the door in their dressing gowns are invariably socialists. There must be a moral somewhere in there...

    I answer the door in my dressing gown to Tesco delivery men.

    TMI, I know...
    There's worse than that around. Like people who open the door in their dressing gown then "accidentally" let the dressing gown open up ...
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    In regard to the discussion about faith schools both my Daughters went to Catholic infant, junior and thence senior schools very close to where we live. There was an incredible drive to have the children excel in all they did taught by teachers that made a difference but always over arched by Christian values and virtues. The school was not private per se but was selective on Catholic upbringing and church. Not wishing to say if that was fair or unfair but the school was always top 3 in the county, very high in the country and outstanding always in the OFSTED reports. The head and teachers were regularly called on to go to less well performing schools of any kind and as far as I know did help some schools improve.

    One day the law changed and I think it was initially 10% of any intake had to be non Catholic . This seemed to develop rapidly to 50% and then as far as I can tell now free entry for anyone. The school fell out of the top lists. OFSTED reports are unfavourable and the children have lost all respect for teachers as well as the community. It is now just a bulk standard school that cannot help themselves let alone any other school.

    The way of life has changed very quickly and it is so sad. On the other hand it was selective which I know annoys many. The teachers did there bit for other schools though as much as they could and shared knowledge facilities and anything else they could so it wasn't as isolationist as it would appear as the church support would not allow. It was all an odd set up but a successful one all the same.

    The moral of the story is, we should not reduce the playing field to the lowest denominator but seek to bring schools not doing so well up to the higher standards. It can be done as was shown here and should be free from political football and interference.

    The second moral is

    " We were taught by Nuns....... Nothing but nothing now scares us"
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    perdix said:

    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:



    Btw, I don't mean to disparage people's campaigning ardour. I'm just sceptical that leaflets are effective. Actually knocking on doors is another matter though. I would imagine that makes a huge difference and I greatly respect people that do it as it must take some balls.

    No, I've been doing it for nearly 50 years now, and the number of people who were what I'd call rude is in single figures. You should try it. Sure, you get people saying "Not interested", or "Labour? No way.", but people don't tell you to f*** off - the instinct to be reasonably polite to someone on your doorstep takes over. Often you get a pleasant short chat, even with opponents - I always remember the one who said, "I read the Mail, and what I see there makes me vote Tory. I do realise I'm getting a one-sided picture, but my life is so busy don't have time for a serious paper at the moment. I'm really sorry." The most courteous, apropos of the last thread, tend to be of Asian origin - canvassing in Leicester during the Iraq war for a pro-war white candidate against an Asian LibDem in a strongly Asian area, I have never heard so many different ways of saying that they were terribly sorry, but on this occasion, sadly...

    Ironically, my wife once tried leafleting, and in the very first house she went to, the woman pursued her down the drive, shouting "How DARE you put this trash in my letterbox!" She was not enthused by the experience and has not made a habit of it.
    There's a Conservative I know who claims that he was once chased down a street in south London by a woman with a broom shouting, "It's the Tories! He's the bloody Tories!"
    It is remarkable that in so many cases in many different areas people who you meet when delivering leaflets at their door say "thank you" when they haven't seen what you have given them and you are not wearing an identifying rosette.

    Most seem simply astonished that anyone is bothered enough to ask for their vote at all when I have done canvassing.

    Without a track record of supporters and a definite party alleigance it is hard to know where to start. There are no marginal areas. Fox jr has been busy getting students registered though.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited March 2016
    Alright, I'm now basically out of the POTUS/GOP markets.

    Feck me if I can figure out where the value is.

    I'm left with 8.2k trading profit + long-odds bets on POTUS Ryan/Romney. Good luck to those who continue to trade.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited March 2016
    valleyboy said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:

    Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

    Most will not even notice it, but about 30-40% will look at if for a few seconds before binning it (noting briefly some sort of effort and presence) and about 10% will skim-read, and 5% properly read it.

    If only a fifth of those who skim/properly read act differently, that's 20 extra votes for every 1 x 1,000 leaflet drop.
    Btw, I don't mean to disparage people's campaigning ardour. I'm just sceptical that leaflets are effective. Actually knocking on doors is another matter though. I would imagine that makes a huge difference and I greatly respect people that do it as it must take some balls.
    Camvassing is far more time consuming. You need to reach a threshold level of organisation first, which neither campaign has at the moment.
    I had to smile when you said canvassers must have balls. I've been canvassing for 15 years or so with various colleagues and have seen that the most effective and resilient are very often women.
    I agree that generally canvassing is troublefree, apart from the odd feck off, but I do know a male colleague who was assaulted not so long ago. Fair play he chuckles about it now and it hasn't stopped him knocking on doors.
    It is the naked people that can set you back...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,517
    SeanT said:

    Usual Newsnight BBC cr*p talking about the Brussels murders without blaming islam. Have now a young muslim blaming lack of work, under qualified, over qualified etc etc..
    On and on a 30 minute exercise in burying heads in the sand.

    Just watched that. Blaming "alienation" of Muslims in.... Belgium. One of the richest, most tolerant, most liberal and undemanding of states on earth. And very generous with welfare.

    Let's face it, fucking ugly whining bearded Muslims will exploit this European cowardice until we stand up and say STOP. We have bent over backwards, and you've bombed our airports, shops, subways.

    And still we tolerate your organised racist gang rape, your FGM, cousin marriage, forced marriage, misogyny, burqas, and overt disgust at our culture. UGH.

    ENOUGH. We have to stand up and say we find modern Islam disgusting and repulsive. We want it to GO. To GO AWAY. We want Muslims to LEAVE Europe, not ENTER. And they can LEAVE until they can prove that they are capable of being civilised and liberal human beings, which doesn't look likely any time soon.
    I wouldn't vote for any of that, but you might get me to vote for a ban on capital letters. Does your printer have green ink?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,935

    RoyalBlue said:

    People who answer the door in their dressing gowns are invariably socialists. There must be a moral somewhere in there...

    I answer the door in my dressing gown to Tesco delivery men.

    TMI, I know...
    Thinks.

    No, I got nothing.

    As you were.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    SeanT said:

    Usual Newsnight BBC cr*p talking about the Brussels murders without blaming islam. Have now a young muslim blaming lack of work, under qualified, over qualified etc etc..
    On and on a 30 minute exercise in burying heads in the sand.

    Just watched that. Blaming "alienation" of Muslims in.... Belgium. One of the richest, most tolerant, most liberal and undemanding of states on earth. And very generous with welfare.

    Let's face it, fucking ugly whining bearded Muslims will exploit this European cowardice until we stand up and say STOP. We have bent over backwards, and you've bombed our airports, shops, subways.

    And still we tolerate your organised racist gang rape, your FGM, cousin marriage, forced marriage, misogyny, burqas, and overt disgust at our culture. UGH.

    ENOUGH. We have to stand up and say we find modern Islam disgusting and repulsive. We want it to GO. To GO AWAY. We want Muslims to LEAVE Europe, not ENTER. And they can LEAVE until they can prove that they are capable of being civilised and liberal human beings, which doesn't look likely any time soon.
    All fine and dandy. But the wrong target.

    The true targets are the traitorous politicians who have allowed it, indeed connived for it, to come to pass. Those who have tried to destroy our own culture, and elevate ALIEN, INIMICAL and BACKWARD cultures to positions of "equality" in our own land, while stifling dissent through "hatespeech" laws, etc.

    Until you recognize that, you're just pissing the the wind...
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    valleyboy said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:

    Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

    Most will not even notice it, but about 30-40% will look at if for a few seconds before binning it (noting briefly some sort of effort and presence) and about 10% will skim-read, and 5% properly read it.

    If only a fifth of those who skim/properly read act differently, that's 20 extra votes for every 1 x 1,000 leaflet drop.
    Btw, I don't mean to disparage people's campaigning ardour. I'm just sceptical that leaflets are effective. Actually knocking on doors is another matter though. I would imagine that makes a huge difference and I greatly respect people that do it as it must take some balls.
    Camvassing is far more time consuming. You need to reach a threshold level of organisation first, which neither campaign has at the moment.
    I had to smile when you said canvassers must have balls. I've been canvassing for 15 years or so with various colleagues and have seen that the most effective and resilient are very often women.
    I agree that generally canvassing is troublefree, apart from the odd feck off, but I do know a male colleague who was assaulted not so long ago. Fair play he chuckles about it now and it hasn't stopped him knocking on doors.
    I've been canvassed twice, both by Labour: in 2010 when I told them I wouldn't support the antisemitic bigot who was their candidate, and then in a by election a couple of years ago when I ranted about Ed Balls (and then voted Labour anyway).
This discussion has been closed.