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  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited March 2016

    Re the thread header Leave is best priced 15/8, generally 7/4, as low as 13/8.

    I've predicted all along a narrow Leave win on a low turnout.

    Regardless of the outcome its clear that complacency has turned to panic for Remain, interesting to see their next move.

    That's great news for remain.

    Your PB prediction record is pretty hopeless.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Honours shared between Trump and Cruz with Trump winning Arizona and Cruz Utah. The winner of the night though is Sanders winning Utah and Idaho to Clinton's Arizona
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Project Fear, on the rocks with a dash of lemon.

    Britain's booze trade will suffer a hangover if the UK quits the European Union, David Cameron is claiming.

    The Prime Minister says jobs and investment in the wine and spirits industry will be threatened if the UK has to renegotiate international deals on alcohol sales. His warning coincides with a new opinion poll suggesting the Leave campaign has a two point lead over Remain, which will surely leave Mr Cameron wanting a stiff drink.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1665105/pm-brexit-could-batter-britains-booze-trade
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Oops meant to type rogue not rough, my typing fingers must still be asleep
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Moses, Cameron reminds me of when I was about 7. A slightly younger lad claimed to my (older) brother that I supported whichever rugby team he didn't like.

    "Imagine something bad. That'll happen, if we leave the EU."
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Fear may well win the EU referendum

    Turkey, terrorists....
  • LondonBobLondonBob Posts: 467
    An even easier win than I expected for Trump in Arizona. Bodes very well for New Mexico and SoCal. Love those county names, straight out of Westerns. I wonder if Montana won't go Trump instead of Cruz looking again at those votes in Idaho and where the big mo is.

    Republican Primaries continue to pile up the votes with Trump's vote pile outweighing HRC's.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited March 2016
    The reaction to this stuff in newspaper comments is primarily Yeah, Whatever or Cobblers.

    If ever a strategy was being overplayed it's this one. It's like a template press release where three fields are replaced 1. The horror predicted 2. The subject de jour and 3. The appeal to authority great and good.

    Nothing positive at all. May and Hogan Howe had appalling timing yesterday claiming the EU kept us safe from security threats, just before Brussels went kaboom.
    Moses_ said:

    Project Fear, on the rocks with a dash of lemon.

    Britain's booze trade will suffer a hangover if the UK quits the European Union, David Cameron is claiming.

    The Prime Minister says jobs and investment in the wine and spirits industry will be threatened if the UK has to renegotiate international deals on alcohol sales. His warning coincides with a new opinion poll suggesting the Leave campaign has a two point lead over Remain, which will surely leave Mr Cameron wanting a stiff drink.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1665105/pm-brexit-could-batter-britains-booze-trade

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    The reaction to this stuff in newspaper comments is primarily Yeah, Whatever or Cobblers.

    If ever a strategy was being overplayed it's this one. It's like a template press release where three fields are replaced 1. The horror predicted 2. The subject de jour and 3. The appeal to authority great and good.

    Nothing positive at all. May and Hogan Howe had appalling timing yesterday claiming the EU kept us safe from security threats, just before Brussels went kaboom.

    Moses_ said:

    Project Fear, on the rocks with a dash of lemon.

    Britain's booze trade will suffer a hangover if the UK quits the European Union, David Cameron is claiming.

    The Prime Minister says jobs and investment in the wine and spirits industry will be threatened if the UK has to renegotiate international deals on alcohol sales. His warning coincides with a new opinion poll suggesting the Leave campaign has a two point lead over Remain, which will surely leave Mr Cameron wanting a stiff drink.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1665105/pm-brexit-could-batter-britains-booze-trade


    "May and Hogan Howe had appalling timing yesterday claiming the EU kept us safe from security threats, just before Brussels went kaboom. "

    If ever there was a claim that was a hostage to fortune, it was that one.

    You have to be desperate to risk it.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    daodao said:

    Snip

    The budget was a disgusting political manipulation in favour of the well-to-do and those segments of the population (ABC1s in prosperous regions) more likely to support Remain.

    I'm not sure that the effect will be negative on the less well off.

    If you have an asset sitting around with a value of £1 million subject to CGT at 28% there is little incentive to sell it, just let it tick over earning a bit for you.

    If you do sell it the new owner is likely to invest in it, as that is what new owners do, which is good for the economy. If you do sell it you are likely to reinvest the money you recieve, creating new jobs, which is good for the economy.

    If you have an asset sitting around with a value of £1 million subject to CGT at the new rate of 20% there is more incentive to sell it, a 20% tax rate looks much more reasonable to the asset holder.

    They may be rich bastards, but very often they do take risks or make investments to provide employment for many others.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'The reaction to this stuff in newspaper comments is primarily Yeah, Whatever or Cobblers. '

    Ordinary folk may not understand much about economics but they have a decent sense for when someone is bullsh*tting them. And that is exactly what is happening.

    Meanwhile, they can see people dying on their screens in the paradise of 'Europe'.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Moses_ said:

    Project Fear, on the rocks with a dash of lemon.

    Britain's booze trade will suffer a hangover if the UK quits the European Union, David Cameron is claiming.

    The Prime Minister says jobs and investment in the wine and spirits industry will be threatened if the UK has to renegotiate international deals on alcohol sales. His warning coincides with a new opinion poll suggesting the Leave campaign has a two point lead over Remain, which will surely leave Mr Cameron wanting a stiff drink.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1665105/pm-brexit-could-batter-britains-booze-trade

    It's Fear Wine & Spirits.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    LondonBob said:

    An even easier win than I expected for Trump in Arizona. Bodes very well for New Mexico and SoCal. Love those county names, straight out of Westerns. I wonder if Montana won't go Trump instead of Cruz looking again at those votes in Idaho and where the big mo is.

    Republican Primaries continue to pile up the votes with Trump's vote pile outweighing HRC's.

    Hillary won more votes than Trump in Arizona
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    Re the thread header Leave is best priced 15/8, generally 7/4, as low as 13/8.

    I've predicted all along a narrow Leave win on a low turnout.

    Regardless of the outcome its clear that complacency has turned to panic for Remain, interesting to see their next move.

    Remain are so complacent that I have received two leaflets from them and nothing from Leave. The Observer poll on Sunday had 61% certain to vote
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Totally agree, I'm a believer in being careful what you wish for. This is a tragic example of it.

    I honestly can't quite comprehend why they've used this line at all. The likelihood of an attack wasn't zero - the veracity of their other claims aren't going to be known for a couple of years.

    The reaction to this stuff in newspaper comments is primarily Yeah, Whatever or Cobblers.

    If ever a strategy was being overplayed it's this one. It's like a template press release where three fields are replaced 1. The horror predicted 2. The subject de jour and 3. The appeal to authority great and good.

    Nothing positive at all. May and Hogan Howe had appalling timing yesterday claiming the EU kept us safe from security threats, just before Brussels went kaboom.

    Moses_ said:

    Project Fear, on the rocks with a dash of lemon.

    Britain's booze trade will suffer a hangover if the UK quits the European Union, David Cameron is claiming.

    The Prime Minister says jobs and investment in the wine and spirits industry will be threatened if the UK has to renegotiate international deals on alcohol sales. His warning coincides with a new opinion poll suggesting the Leave campaign has a two point lead over Remain, which will surely leave Mr Cameron wanting a stiff drink.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1665105/pm-brexit-could-batter-britains-booze-trade


    "May and Hogan Howe had appalling timing yesterday claiming the EU kept us safe from security threats, just before Brussels went kaboom. "

    If ever there was a claim that was a hostage to fortune, it was that one.

    You have to be desperate to risk it.

  • glwglw Posts: 9,892
    runnymede said:

    'The reaction to this stuff in newspaper comments is primarily Yeah, Whatever or Cobblers. '

    Ordinary folk may not understand much about economics but they have a decent sense for when someone is bullsh*tting them. And that is exactly what is happening.

    Meanwhile, they can see people dying on their screens in the paradise of 'Europe'.

    It is cobblers, and obviously so. Each day brings a new calamity that will befall us if we leave the EU, even people who are disinterested in the referendum would wonder "but how does so-and-so thrive outside the EU then?"

    Remain have so over done it that Project Fear is now about as frightening as one of those Goosebumps books for children.

  • Polruan said:

    Moses_ said:

    Project Fear, on the rocks with a dash of lemon.

    Britain's booze trade will suffer a hangover if the UK quits the European Union, David Cameron is claiming.

    The Prime Minister says jobs and investment in the wine and spirits industry will be threatened if the UK has to renegotiate international deals on alcohol sales. His warning coincides with a new opinion poll suggesting the Leave campaign has a two point lead over Remain, which will surely leave Mr Cameron wanting a stiff drink.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1665105/pm-brexit-could-batter-britains-booze-trade

    It's Fear Wine & Spirits.
    Like
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Remain is a one trick pony campaign, and that equine has been flogged to death with 90 days to go.
    glw said:

    runnymede said:

    'The reaction to this stuff in newspaper comments is primarily Yeah, Whatever or Cobblers. '

    Ordinary folk may not understand much about economics but they have a decent sense for when someone is bullsh*tting them. And that is exactly what is happening.

    Meanwhile, they can see people dying on their screens in the paradise of 'Europe'.

    It is cobblers, and obviously so. Each day brings a new calamity that will befall us if we leave the EU, even people who are disinterested in the referendum would wonder "but how does so-and-so thrive outside the EU then?"

    Remain have so over done it that Project Fear is now about as frightening as one of those Goosebumps books for children.

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Totally agree, I'm a believer in being careful what you wish for. This is a tragic example of it.

    I honestly can't quite comprehend why they've used this line at all. The likelihood of an attack wasn't zero - the veracity of their other claims aren't going to be known for a couple of years.

    The reaction to this stuff in newspaper comments is primarily Yeah, Whatever or Cobblers.

    If ever a strategy was being overplayed it's this one. It's like a template press release where three fields are replaced 1. The horror predicted 2. The subject de jour and 3. The appeal to authority great and good.

    Nothing positive at all. May and Hogan Howe had appalling timing yesterday claiming the EU kept us safe from security threats, just before Brussels went kaboom.

    Moses_ said:

    Project Fear, on the rocks with a dash of lemon.

    Britain's booze trade will suffer a hangover if the UK quits the European Union, David Cameron is claiming.

    The Prime Minister says jobs and investment in the wine and spirits industry will be threatened if the UK has to renegotiate international deals on alcohol sales. His warning coincides with a new opinion poll suggesting the Leave campaign has a two point lead over Remain, which will surely leave Mr Cameron wanting a stiff drink.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1665105/pm-brexit-could-batter-britains-booze-trade


    "May and Hogan Howe had appalling timing yesterday claiming the EU kept us safe from security threats, just before Brussels went kaboom. "

    If ever there was a claim that was a hostage to fortune, it was that one.

    You have to be desperate to risk it.

    That's the point. Attempting to build fear into a populace that has been in constant terrorist attack for some 100 years probably isn't going to make more fear. Just makes the populace more angry wishing the politicians hiding behind their massive security would for once get a bloody backbone.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Speedy said:

    Scott_P said:
    So will the poor get more aid from the SNP, no according to the SNP.
    Will the rich pay more taxes to the SNP, no according to the SNP.

    So what's the point of left wingers voting for the SNP ?
    Because the financial settlement means that any additional financial support given directly to people can be clawed back by Westminster from UK wide means tested benefits, so the SNP could announce an extra £1000 for every unemployed person and it won't result in them getting any more money.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Polruan said:

    Moses_ said:

    Project Fear, on the rocks with a dash of lemon.

    Britain's booze trade will suffer a hangover if the UK quits the European Union, David Cameron is claiming.

    The Prime Minister says jobs and investment in the wine and spirits industry will be threatened if the UK has to renegotiate international deals on alcohol sales. His warning coincides with a new opinion poll suggesting the Leave campaign has a two point lead over Remain, which will surely leave Mr Cameron wanting a stiff drink.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1665105/pm-brexit-could-batter-britains-booze-trade

    It's Fear Wine & Spirits.
    The greatest hits of Earth, Wind and Fear
  • LondonBobLondonBob Posts: 467
    HYUFD said:

    LondonBob said:

    An even easier win than I expected for Trump in Arizona. Bodes very well for New Mexico and SoCal. Love those county names, straight out of Westerns. I wonder if Montana won't go Trump instead of Cruz looking again at those votes in Idaho and where the big mo is.

    Republican Primaries continue to pile up the votes with Trump's vote pile outweighing HRC's.

    Hillary won more votes than Trump in Arizona
    Trump 15k up.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    On immigration/Brexit:

    It is far and away the main topic to be discussed in relation to Brexit that I have come across. Mostly garbage spoken on the subject though, such as how it would keep out those in the Calais camp.

    My sense, right now, right this moment, is that this could win it for LEAVE, however

    Hence the sense of panic in the REMAIN camp
    Yeah, but your opinion is changed every day!
    Not on this, I stand by my several-months-old prediction. A fairly narrow REMAIN win - 56-44. I just think the odds on a LEAVE upset have risen. And they have.
    56-44 is quite a big gap for a binary choice. I currently suspect a much narrower result, with differential turnout being key factor.
    1 person in 20 doesn't seem that big to me.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    glw said:

    runnymede said:

    'The reaction to this stuff in newspaper comments is primarily Yeah, Whatever or Cobblers. '

    Ordinary folk may not understand much about economics but they have a decent sense for when someone is bullsh*tting them. And that is exactly what is happening.

    Meanwhile, they can see people dying on their screens in the paradise of 'Europe'.

    It is cobblers, and obviously so. Each day brings a new calamity that will befall us if we leave the EU, even people who are disinterested in the referendum would wonder "but how does so-and-so thrive outside the EU then?"

    Remain have so over done it that Project Fear is now about as frightening as one of those Goosebumps books for children.

    I think it works. Anyone remotely politically engaged recognises manipulative bullshit for what it is, but that's not a large proportion of the electorate. Among my non-political, probably vaguely lefty friends who would have broadly agreed with and benefited from Labour's policy prospectus for the 2015 GE the basic narrative looked like this:

    Benefit cuts bad, NHS being run down, don't really like Tories, don't want our libraries shut, don't like the rich/big corporations avoiding their tax BUT!!!! (in order of importance)

    1) SCOTTISH PEOPLE!!! IN CHARGE OF ENGLAND!!! THAT CAN"T BE RIGHT!!!!?!!
    2) That Ed Miliband's a bit weird isn't he? How can you trust anyone who stabs his brother?

    and a distant

    3) Maybe I should be worried about the economy

    The Tories won it on the first two, and Cameron will win it the same way this time.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    These catastrophe stories also run up against the problem that even the remain side don't believe them - as Lord Rose has put it....

    'Nothing is going to happen if we come out of Europe ... There will be absolutely no change ... It’s not going to be a step change or somebody’s going to turn the lights out and we’re all suddenly going to find that we can’t go to France, it’s going to be a gentle process'

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4588253.ece


  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Alistair said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    On immigration/Brexit:

    It is far and away the main topic to be discussed in relation to Brexit that I have come across. Mostly garbage spoken on the subject though, such as how it would keep out those in the Calais camp.

    My sense, right now, right this moment, is that this could win it for LEAVE, however

    Hence the sense of panic in the REMAIN camp
    Yeah, but your opinion is changed every day!
    Not on this, I stand by my several-months-old prediction. A fairly narrow REMAIN win - 56-44. I just think the odds on a LEAVE upset have risen. And they have.
    56-44 is quite a big gap for a binary choice. I currently suspect a much narrower result, with differential turnout being key factor.
    1 person in 20 doesn't seem that big to me.
    But 1 in 4 does seem like a big gap to me. If the gap is that big then for every 4 votes Leave has, Remain has more than 5, an extra 1 in 4.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,188
    Moses_ said:

    Project Fear, on the rocks with a dash of lemon.

    Britain's booze trade will suffer a hangover if the UK quits the European Union, David Cameron is claiming.

    The Prime Minister says jobs and investment in the wine and spirits industry will be threatened if the UK has to renegotiate international deals on alcohol sales. His warning coincides with a new opinion poll suggesting the Leave campaign has a two point lead over Remain, which will surely leave Mr Cameron wanting a stiff drink.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1665105/pm-brexit-could-batter-britains-booze-trade

    Ah, as predicted, they are going for the booze and Britons favourite tipples!
  • glwglw Posts: 9,892
    Polruan said:

    1) SCOTTISH PEOPLE!!! IN CHARGE OF ENGLAND!!! THAT CAN"T BE RIGHT!!!!?!!
    2) That Ed Miliband's a bit weird isn't he? How can you trust anyone who stabs his brother?

    and a distant

    3) Maybe I should be worried about the economy

    The Tories won it on the first two, and Cameron will win it the same way this time.

    You will have to explain how 1 can work for Cameron this time around. Surely the last thing he wants is to make the referendum about sovereignty and self-rule. That line of approach works much better for Leave pointing to the many democractic inadequacies of the EU.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,188
    All the oxygen in the skies over Britain will be sucked away and replaced with carbon monoxide if we vote Leave.

    No one will be able to breathe.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    If we vote Leave then Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath will come out of retirement and we will never win the Ashes again.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'Britain's booze trade will suffer a hangover if the UK quits the European Union, David Cameron is claiming.'

    The PM could give the booze trade a huge boost, post Brexit, by using the savings made on our exorbitant EU contributions to slash excise duties. Just imagine, 20p off a pint...
  • glwglw Posts: 9,892

    Ah, as predicted, they are going for the booze and Britons favourite tipples!

    I expect something about sport soon, along the lines of no more UEFA football and Six Nations if we leave the EU.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    edited March 2016
    Neither side in the referendum is covering itself in glory/. There is a debate to be had about security and cooperation, but clearly we are not suddenly going to be bombed out of our beds if we vote to leave the EU. However, it is also not a given that current levels of cooperation will remain - not because anything will deliberately be done to reduce them, but because things may very easily be caught between the cracks of any new deal. Either way, though, it's small percentages, not calamity.

    Both sides know that in the end fear is going to win: fear of the unknown v fear of high levels of immigration.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Whilst the doom-mongering's clearly overplayed to a politically engaged audience, it's worth noting a large section of the public (especially those who are vaguely pro-EU or worried about leaving) are not. Hammering a message is necessary to get it through, as we saw with Gordon Brown's endless repetition of phrases.

    The question is when this repetition becomes tedious for people who aren't into politics enough to post on sites like this.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,872
    Polruan said:

    glw said:

    runnymede said:

    'The reaction to this stuff in newspaper comments is primarily Yeah, Whatever or Cobblers. '

    Ordinary folk may not understand much about economics but they have a decent sense for when someone is bullsh*tting them. And that is exactly what is happening.

    Meanwhile, they can see people dying on their screens in the paradise of 'Europe'.

    It is cobblers, and obviously so. Each day brings a new calamity that will befall us if we leave the EU, even people who are disinterested in the referendum would wonder "but how does so-and-so thrive outside the EU then?"

    Remain have so over done it that Project Fear is now about as frightening as one of those Goosebumps books for children.

    I think it works. Anyone remotely politically engaged recognises manipulative bullshit for what it is, but that's not a large proportion of the electorate. Among my non-political, probably vaguely lefty friends who would have broadly agreed with and benefited from Labour's policy prospectus for the 2015 GE the basic narrative looked like this:

    Benefit cuts bad, NHS being run down, don't really like Tories, don't want our libraries shut, don't like the rich/big corporations avoiding their tax BUT!!!! (in order of importance)

    1) SCOTTISH PEOPLE!!! IN CHARGE OF ENGLAND!!! THAT CAN"T BE RIGHT!!!!?!!
    2) That Ed Miliband's a bit weird isn't he? How can you trust anyone who stabs his brother?

    and a distant

    3) Maybe I should be worried about the economy

    The Tories won it on the first two, and Cameron will win it the same way this time.
    So in fact we're actually witnessing Project Fear III.
    Heartening to see the scales fall from the eyes of those who were thwacking their flippers together like performing seals over Projects Fear I & II.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    glw said:

    Ah, as predicted, they are going for the booze and Britons favourite tipples!

    I expect something about sport soon, along the lines of no more UEFA football and Six Nations if we leave the EU.
    The Tour de France will not run in Britain. Positive for leave I would have thought.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    philiph said:

    daodao said:

    Snip

    The budget was a disgusting political manipulation in favour of the well-to-do and those segments of the population (ABC1s in prosperous regions) more likely to support Remain.

    I'm not sure that the effect will be negative on the less well off.

    If you have an asset sitting around with a value of £1 million subject to CGT at 28% there is little incentive to sell it, just let it tick over earning a bit for you.

    If you do sell it the new owner is likely to invest in it, as that is what new owners do, which is good for the economy. If you do sell it you are likely to reinvest the money you recieve, creating new jobs, which is good for the economy.

    If you have an asset sitting around with a value of £1 million subject to CGT at the new rate of 20% there is more incentive to sell it, a 20% tax rate looks much more reasonable to the asset holder.

    They may be rich bastards, but very often they do take risks or make investments to provide employment for many others.
    Tax is a huge disincentive to transact these days.

    As an example we have just finished a development project where for a total investment of £900K over 4 years (plus a lot of hard work by my sister and our partners in the venture) we could probably sell for gross proceeds of £3.5 million.

    If we sell and redeploy the capital into a new project we will have to pay tax of around £600,000 - the result is that it makes economic sense to retain ownership of the asset and lease it out. While the rental income is fine, it's not particularly interesting and it ties down capital that could be used much productively for society.
  • glw said:

    Ah, as predicted, they are going for the booze and Britons favourite tipples!

    I expect something about sport soon, along the lines of no more UEFA football and Six Nations if we leave the EU.
    And thrown out of the Eurovision too.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Alistair said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    On immigration/Brexit:

    It is far and away the main topic to be discussed in relation to Brexit that I have come across. Mostly garbage spoken on the subject though, such as how it would keep out those in the Calais camp.

    My sense, right now, right this moment, is that this could win it for LEAVE, however

    Hence the sense of panic in the REMAIN camp
    Yeah, but your opinion is changed every day!
    Not on this, I stand by my several-months-old prediction. A fairly narrow REMAIN win - 56-44. I just think the odds on a LEAVE upset have risen. And they have.
    56-44 is quite a big gap for a binary choice. I currently suspect a much narrower result, with differential turnout being key factor.
    1 person in 20 doesn't seem that big to me.
    A 10 point win or more would be decisive and settle it for a generation.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    glw said:

    Ah, as predicted, they are going for the booze and Britons favourite tipples!

    I expect something about sport soon, along the lines of no more UEFA football and Six Nations if we leave the EU.
    And thrown out of the Eurovision too.
    I assume a Leave government would withdraw unilaterally from Eurovision. Geopolitical realities woukd force Ireland to pull out too and soon the entire corrupt edifice would collapse.
  • Q1: How influential is Cameron's 'Great Deal' in the EU Referendum debate?

    A1: Varies between 0 and 0.000001

    Q2: So why did he and all the other EU leaders bother with all those bilateral discussions and late night negotiations?

    A2: Dunno, really ...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    NEW THREAD
  • Moses_ said:

    glw said:

    Ah, as predicted, they are going for the booze and Britons favourite tipples!

    I expect something about sport soon, along the lines of no more UEFA football and Six Nations if we leave the EU.
    The Tour de France will not run in Britain. Positive for leave I would have thought.
    Boris has already put paid to that for the next few years at least.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    glw said:

    Polruan said:

    1) SCOTTISH PEOPLE!!! IN CHARGE OF ENGLAND!!! THAT CAN"T BE RIGHT!!!!?!!
    2) That Ed Miliband's a bit weird isn't he? How can you trust anyone who stabs his brother?

    and a distant

    3) Maybe I should be worried about the economy

    The Tories won it on the first two, and Cameron will win it the same way this time.

    You will have to explain how 1 can work for Cameron this time around. Surely the last thing he wants is to make the referendum about sovereignty and self-rule. That line of approach works much better for Leave pointing to the many democractic inadequacies of the EU.

    I didn't mean it quite that literally. This time it's probably

    1) BUYING NICE STUFF CHEAP - YOU KNOW THAT INTERNATIONAL TRADE IS ALL DOWN TO THE EU RIGHT??
    2) CHEAPS FLIGHTS TO SOMEWHERE SUNNY

    and

    3) TERRORISM. Gosh, the world's a dangerous place, isn't it? Are you sure we can really look after ourselves?

    I don't want to kick off the normal discussion about whether we are better equipped to protect ourselves from terrorism in or out of the EU, but I'm fairly sure that Cameron is the more skilled of the players at using the general sense of fear caused by the Brussels attacks and other events to further his cause.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    LondonBob said:

    HYUFD said:

    LondonBob said:

    An even easier win than I expected for Trump in Arizona. Bodes very well for New Mexico and SoCal. Love those county names, straight out of Westerns. I wonder if Montana won't go Trump instead of Cruz looking again at those votes in Idaho and where the big mo is.

    Republican Primaries continue to pile up the votes with Trump's vote pile outweighing HRC's.

    Hillary won more votes than Trump in Arizona
    Trump 15k up.
    She was ahead on 216k though Trump us back ahead again now. Yet Arizona is a Republican state so he should be winning big there and two polls this week give HRC a clear lead over him
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Paul Brand ITV
    Irony of @SamCoatesTimes's excellent leaked list of Labour's 'core' MPs is many of 'core +' group berate him to me https://t.co/984uuhLsLX
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited March 2016
    COBRA meeting

    No raise to threat level in UK. However they have discussed if flags should be put at half mast.
    Sky News.

    Actually no doubt they discussed much more buts its the perception as given on the news.
    Note Kay Burley on scene for Sky news so all under control. I am reminded when the 1st gulf War (or was in Falkands?) was about to start and the comments from the troops were ok we can start the war now .......Kate Aidie has finally arrived.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited March 2016

    Moses_ said:

    Project Fear, on the rocks with a dash of lemon.

    Britain's booze trade will suffer a hangover if the UK quits the European Union, David Cameron is claiming.

    The Prime Minister says jobs and investment in the wine and spirits industry will be threatened if the UK has to renegotiate international deals on alcohol sales. His warning coincides with a new opinion poll suggesting the Leave campaign has a two point lead over Remain, which will surely leave Mr Cameron wanting a stiff drink.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1665105/pm-brexit-could-batter-britains-booze-trade

    Ah, as predicted, they are going for the booze and Britons favourite tipples!
    So the Duty Free arrangements that Chuck Feeney (one of the more impressive people in the world, by the way*) built involving most of the countries in the world will magically cease to exist? Riiiight.

    * He made a little over £1 billion from his business empire. Bought his wife a flat in London and a house in Dublin (£1m each). Bought each of his 3 kids a £1m flat. Gave his wife £10m in cash and each of his kids £1m in cash. Total outlay: £18m. Reckoned that fulfilled his moral obligation to provide for his family, so he gave the other £1 billion away.

    Intriguingly, Atlantic has a Sunset Clause - wouldn't work for me, but an interesting concept. By the time they wind down, they reckon they will have given away $8 billion.

    http://www.atlanticphilanthropies.org/our-story
  • Entertaining anarchy at the Democrat vote in Arizona. Three and four hour queues then people find they are not registered.

    Anyone would think the Dems wanted to reduce turnout...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,371
    Trump confuses me. Occasionally he says things that seem batsh*t insane, and at others he says things utterly reasonable. His rhetoric seems to overplay the underlying sentiment.

    But today I found a reason why no-one should ever vote for Trump, and why he should be banished from the public sphere forever.

    Piers Morgan is friends with him ...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,831
    Received a BSE leaflet through the door, looked like one from a pizza place, all primary colours, telling me how jobs, wealth, you name it would be better/increased/etc by staying in. Totally b**sh*t stats no doubt.

    Pathetic.

    If that is the level of debate god help us. Then again, goodness only knows what the Leave one will look like; presumably edged in black.
  • Trump's analysis of where America has gone wrong is pretty good. And he's said the same thing for years so he us consistent. Some of his solutions on the other hand are a little more interesting.
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