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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With sentiment edging away from REMAIN it’s been the biggest betting day yet on the EURef

Whether this has been driven by Brussels or not is unclrear but there’s been a huge, in political betting terms, of betting on the EU Referendum. With nearly £0.25m of bets matched on Betfair alone in 24 hours the this has almost certainly been the biggest day yet for referendum gambling.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Interesting

TCPoliticalBetting

FWIW I started out thinking that REMAIN will win but as time goes on, despite the advantages REMAIN has with: the Govt machinery, the backing of the establishment (except the Queen) and no single LEAVE campaign, I am moving towards a belief in LEAVE.

Here are my assumptions on voting
Leave Remain
Con voters 55% 45%
Lab voters 35% 65%
UKIP voters 95% 5%
SNP voters 10% 90%
LD voters 30% 70%
NI voters 36% 64%
Others 40% 60%
Turnout assumptions are the other factor

TwistedFireStopper

Lets face it, days like today don't do the EU any good. You can say that cross border policing helped France track the Death Cult to Belgium, but then you can just as easily say that free, open borders makes it easy for the Death Cult to swan around the EU at will. It's not as simple as that, I know, but that'll be the perception for a large swathe of the EU population.

TCPoliticalBetting

Up until the last few days, with the advantages REMAIN had, IMHO they should be 10+ points ahead in polls that still have dubious weighting favouring REMAIN.

MP_SE

LOL at Mike Ashley:

"I would love to get him in a boxing ring with a pair of gloves on and box his ears, that's what I would like to do," said Mr Ashley when asked about Mr Miliband's comments.

http://news.sky.com/story/1664968/ashley-threatened-with-contempt-of-parliament

DaemonBarber

TwistedFireStopper said:

Lets face it, days like today don't do the EU any good. You can say that cross border policing helped France track the Death Cult to Belgium, but then you can just as easily say that free, open borders makes it easy for the Death Cult to swan around the EU at will. It's not as simple as that, I know, but that'll be the perception for a large swathe of the EU population.

We are not in Shengen.

AndrewD

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

TwistedFireStopper

DaemonBarber said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Lets face it, days like today don't do the EU any good. You can say that cross border policing helped France track the Death Cult to Belgium, but then you can just as easily say that free, open borders makes it easy for the Death Cult to swan around the EU at will. It's not as simple as that, I know, but that'll be the perception for a large swathe of the EU population.

We are not in Shengen.

And your point is?

Wanderer

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

You have to eat a bacon sandwich before you can see your GP?

tpfkar

It does seem to me that remain are in trouble; there's a lack of passion, having to argue for EU membership makes it much harder to point out some obvious flaws, and robust economic analysis of how much economic damage would be done by leaving is either ignored or seen as worth it.

If it's high turnout, remain should be fine, if not leave could easily do it.

I thought Mike's piece earlier was spot on - if there's a political angle to today though, it's that the biggest challenges we face - immigration, terrorism, climate change, tax avoidance, air pollution - don't respect national borders. The days when we could just sort ourselves out and leave other countries to do likewise without impacting us are long gone. Glad to see those being too partisan get called out for it today.

DaemonBarber

TwistedFireStopper said:

DaemonBarber said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Lets face it, days like today don't do the EU any good. You can say that cross border policing helped France track the Death Cult to Belgium, but then you can just as easily say that free, open borders makes it easy for the Death Cult to swan around the EU at will. It's not as simple as that, I know, but that'll be the perception for a large swathe of the EU population.

We are not in Shengen.

And your point is?

Remain or leave we will still not be part of Shengen.

You may well be right that it doesn't help the pro EU arguments, but it should have little weight to the referendum.

AndyJS

What time do we start getting primary results tonight? Hopefully not too late...

TCPoliticalBetting

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Sadly we have to end all faith schools. Only because our laws would not allow discrimination against Islam. This is the price we have to pay for allowing 2million+ muslims to live in the country. We should also consider a 10+ year ban on new religous buildings.

Philip_Thompson

FPT:

Alanbrooke said:

Yeah, you're just not old enough to remember when we used to repay debt. I am.

We'll repay debt if Osborne's plans are followed to completion. However you keep repeating the fallacious claim that Osborne is the same as Brown. Brown increased real terms spending every year. Osborne has reduced real terms spending again and again.

Under Brown real terms spending more than doubled.
Under Osborne real terms spending has been falling.

While Brown's annual answer to everything was "more spending" I challenge you to name a single Chancellor in our history who has cut spending more than Osborne has.

MaxPB

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

I would be up for all of that as well.

philiph

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Slaughter of animals should be non negotiable. You either do it in the way prescribed or not at all.

Import of meat from animals killed to religious specification should also be banned.

You can not have welfare for some and not others. All animals are equal.

TwistedFireStopper

DaemonBarber said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

DaemonBarber said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Lets face it, days like today don't do the EU any good. You can say that cross border policing helped France track the Death Cult to Belgium, but then you can just as easily say that free, open borders makes it easy for the Death Cult to swan around the EU at will. It's not as simple as that, I know, but that'll be the perception for a large swathe of the EU population.

We are not in Shengen.

And your point is?

Remain or leave we will still not be part of Shengen.

You may well be right that it doesn't help the pro EU arguments, but it should have little weight to the referendum.

I know that, you know that, but the vast majority of the population don't really have a grasp of the intricacies of Shengen. I'm just commenting on my belief that days like today don't do the EU any favours.

TCPoliticalBetting

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Sadly I say yes to those.

PeterC

The other dimension is how party allegiance interacts with turnout. The nature of the debate may lead left wing voters to see it as quintessentially right wing in nature and not much to do with them.

TheWhiteRabbit

Apparently most polls close in Arizona 10PM ET, which is I think 6AM GMT. However that does sound very late compared to other states.

TCPoliticalBetting

DaemonBarber said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

DaemonBarber said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Lets face it, days like today don't do the EU any good. You can say that cross border policing helped France track the Death Cult to Belgium, but then you can just as easily say that free, open borders makes it easy for the Death Cult to swan around the EU at will. It's not as simple as that, I know, but that'll be the perception for a large swathe of the EU population.

We are not in Shengen.

And your point is?

Remain or leave we will still not be part of Shengen.

You may well be right that it doesn't help the pro EU arguments, but it should have little weight to the referendum.

Whether it should or not is a bit like saying project fear's end of days nonsense should have no effect. But they will.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting

My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.

So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.

I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.

MaxPB

TCPoliticalBetting said:

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Sadly we have to end all faith schools. Only because our laws would not allow discrimination against Islam. This is the price we have to pay for allowing 2million+ muslims to live in the country. We should also consider a 10+ year ban on new religous buildings.

Rubbish. The issue is that Islam has proven time and again it cannot be trusted not to light a fire if we give them matches. I went to a CoE school and had a very traditional education, lumping schools like mine in with the Islamic madrassas in the Midlands and North is wrong. We don't punish all children because one of them misbehaves.

On religious buildings, stop all overseas funding of Mosques and close all the existing ones and slowly reopen them once they have have been sufficiently checked for links to extremists.

John_N

TCPoliticalBetting said:

FWIW I started out thinking that REMAIN will win but as time goes on, despite the advantages REMAIN has with: the Govt machinery, the backing of the establishment (except the Queen) and no single LEAVE campaign, I am moving towards a belief in LEAVE.

Here are my assumptions on voting
Leave Remain
Con voters 55% 45%
Lab voters 35% 65%
UKIP voters 95% 5%
SNP voters 10% 90%
LD voters 30% 70%
NI voters 36% 64%
Others 40% 60%
Turnout assumptions are the other factor

Those aren't assumptions. They're conclusions.

Your assumption is that dividing people into voters for the different parties is of much significance when we are predicting what will happen in the referendum. In my opinion, it isn't. Why? Because these identities won't feature big in how most people see themselves when they go and vote. In the electoral reform referendum, they did. In the EU one, they won't.

I also think your figures for both Con and Others are way out. I'd suggest more like 70% Leave for both groups. Many will feel a sense of "release" when they go and vote Leave.

Are there any leading figures in the SNP, by the way, who take the wholly logical position that an independent Scotland should be independent of both Britain and the EU and therefore that Scotland shouldn't be part of either union? Or is that party hell-bent on helping the Tories like they did in 1979?

Leave will win. The whole set-up is much "stickier" in the Remain direction. There won't be a sudden big rush to Remain. Surprises and shocks will almost all benefit Leave. The Remain campaign have got an extremely hard job on their hands to persuade a) intending Leave voters, b) intending non-voters, and c) people who might either stay at home or vote Remain, to make sure they get off their butts and vote Remain.

Alanbrooke

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT:

Alanbrooke said:

Yeah, you're just not old enough to remember when we used to repay debt. I am.

We'll repay debt if Osborne's plans are followed to completion. However you keep repeating the fallacious claim that Osborne is the same as Brown. Brown increased real terms spending every year. Osborne has reduced real terms spending again and again.

Under Brown real terms spending more than doubled.
Under Osborne real terms spending has been falling.

While Brown's annual answer to everything was "more spending" I challenge you to name a single Chancellor in our history who has cut spending more than Osborne has.

WE have no chance of repaying debt if Osborne's plans are followed since the economic cycle will kick back in by then and all the projections will just be garbage in a downturn. Unless of course your claiming he has abolished boom and bust.

Casino_Royale

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Up until the last few days, with the advantages REMAIN had, IMHO they should be 10+ points ahead in polls that still have dubious weighting favouring REMAIN.

It is interesting that with Project Fear firing its initial, opening "softening up" artillery salvo pretty continuously for the first two weeks of the campaign (although admittedly much quieter over the last week, which may have had an effect) the polls have not moved massively.

Big_G_NorthWales

Alanbrooke said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT:

Alanbrooke said:

Yeah, you're just not old enough to remember when we used to repay debt. I am.

We'll repay debt if Osborne's plans are followed to completion. However you keep repeating the fallacious claim that Osborne is the same as Brown. Brown increased real terms spending every year. Osborne has reduced real terms spending again and again.

Under Brown real terms spending more than doubled.
Under Osborne real terms spending has been falling.

While Brown's annual answer to everything was "more spending" I challenge you to name a single Chancellor in our history who has cut spending more than Osborne has.

WE have no chance of repaying debt if Osborne's plans are followed since the economic cycle will kick back in by then and all the projections will just be garbage in a downturn. Unless of course your claiming he has abolished boom and bust.

Can't abolish boom and bust when we not out of bust yet

TCPoliticalBetting

tpfkar said:

It does seem to me that remain are in trouble; there's a lack of passion, having to argue for EU membership makes it much harder to point out some obvious flaws, and robust economic analysis of how much economic damage would be done by leaving is either ignored or seen as worth it.

Andrew Neil made an interesting point earlier this month that in a referendum in another country about the EU, it started off with the project fear stuff and after weeks of it people started to mock it and the people turned on the establishment and they voted against.

As yet no one has managed to write an article on this website that is purely positive about REMAIN (as Plato pointed out). Maybe that is becuase it is very very hard to do?

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting

My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.

So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.

I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.

If only Leave could organise themselves.

Charles

@pulpstar fpt

@yokel once claimed that he ran a pizza delivery business. I'm not sure I believe him...

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting

My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.

So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.

I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.

If only Leave could organise themselves.

Don't get me started.

Casino_Royale

I have a feeling I am going to enjoy reading this book:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Making-India-Untold-British-Enterprise/dp/1472924827/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1458684925&sr=8-1&keywords=kartar+lalvani

TCPoliticalBetting

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Sadly we have to end all faith schools. Only because our laws would not allow discrimination against Islam. This is the price we have to pay for allowing 2million+ muslims to live in the country. We should also consider a 10+ year ban on new religous buildings.

Rubbish. The issue is that Islam has proven time and again it cannot be trusted not to light a fire if we give them matches. I went to a CoE school and had a very traditional education, lumping schools like mine in with the Islamic madrassas in the Midlands and North is wrong. We don't punish all children because one of them misbehaves.

Entirely right. Let's face the fucking truth. The problem is ISLAM. So we close Muslim schools. There. Done. Everything else is specious cant.

SeanT - Yes but we probably have to end all religious schools, the price of our freedom and liberty may be a secular society.

Alanbrooke

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Alanbrooke said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT:

Alanbrooke said:

Yeah, you're just not old enough to remember when we used to repay debt. I am.

We'll repay debt if Osborne's plans are followed to completion. However you keep repeating the fallacious claim that Osborne is the same as Brown. Brown increased real terms spending every year. Osborne has reduced real terms spending again and again.

Under Brown real terms spending more than doubled.
Under Osborne real terms spending has been falling.

While Brown's annual answer to everything was "more spending" I challenge you to name a single Chancellor in our history who has cut spending more than Osborne has.

WE have no chance of repaying debt if Osborne's plans are followed since the economic cycle will kick back in by then and all the projections will just be garbage in a downturn. Unless of course your claiming he has abolished boom and bust.

Can't abolish boom and bust when we not out of bust yet

sorry this IS the boom. The bust has yet to come and already the central banks are getting twitchy.

DaemonBarber

TwistedFireStopper said:

DaemonBarber said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

DaemonBarber said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Lets face it, days like today don't do the EU any good. You can say that cross border policing helped France track the Death Cult to Belgium, but then you can just as easily say that free, open borders makes it easy for the Death Cult to swan around the EU at will. It's not as simple as that, I know, but that'll be the perception for a large swathe of the EU population.

We are not in Shengen.

And your point is?

Remain or leave we will still not be part of Shengen.

You may well be right that it doesn't help the pro EU arguments, but it should have little weight to the referendum.

I know that, you know that, but the vast majority of the population don't really have a grasp of the intricacies of Shengen. I'm just commenting on my belief that days like today don't do the EU any favours.

Fair enough. And for what it's worth i think you're right.

SouthamObserver

Leave has all the passion and commitment. It's hard to see how Dave gets enough Remainers to the polling booths on 23rd June.

TwistedFireStopper

SeanT said:

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.

It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.

Speedy

The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.

Most remainers are soft, it won't take much to convince them to vote Leave.

Sean_F

TCPoliticalBetting said:

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Sadly we have to end all faith schools. Only because our laws would not allow discrimination against Islam. This is the price we have to pay for allowing 2million+ muslims to live in the country. We should also consider a 10+ year ban on new religous buildings.

We shouldn't penalise all religions, because of problems caused by some members of one religion.

TCPoliticalBetting

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting

My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.

So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.

I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.

If only Leave could organise themselves.

When they do it could be all over for REMAIN.

Wanderer

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Sadly we have to end all faith schools. Only because our laws would not allow discrimination against Islam. This is the price we have to pay for allowing 2million+ muslims to live in the country. We should also consider a 10+ year ban on new religous buildings.

Rubbish. The issue is that Islam has proven time and again it cannot be trusted not to light a fire if we give them matches. I went to a CoE school and had a very traditional education, lumping schools like mine in with the Islamic madrassas in the Midlands and North is wrong. We don't punish all children because one of them misbehaves.

Entirely right. Let's face the fucking truth. The problem is ISLAM. So we close Muslim schools. There. Done. Everything else is specious cant.

SeanT - Yes but we probably have to end all religious schools, the price of our freedom and liberty may be a secular society.

What's not to like about a secular society?

Charles

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Apparently most polls close in Arizona 10PM ET, which is I think 6AM GMT. However that does sound very late compared to other states.

Only 8pm MT though which is plausible. 10pm ET is 2am GMT this week

DaemonBarber

Massively off topic.

First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review

TCPoliticalBetting

Speedy said:

The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.

Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?

AndrewD

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Sadly we have to end all faith schools. Only because our laws would not allow discrimination against Islam. This is the price we have to pay for allowing 2million+ muslims to live in the country. We should also consider a 10+ year ban on new religous buildings.

Rubbish. The issue is that Islam has proven time and again it cannot be trusted not to light a fire if we give them matches. I went to a CoE school and had a very traditional education, lumping schools like mine in with the Islamic madrassas in the Midlands and North is wrong. We don't punish all children because one of them misbehaves.

Entirely right. Let's face the fucking truth. The problem is ISLAM. So we close Muslim schools. There. Done. Everything else is specious cant.

Even if you don't want to be seen to obviously discriminate you can do a lot. If we find one extremist teacher or one piece of extremist material, close down the school and ban all the directors from setting up any others. You'd get rid of most Islamic schools in a decade.

RoyalBlue

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting

My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.

So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.

I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.

If only Leave could organise themselves.

I know we've had Leavers bemoaning the lack of organisation, but how many people on here have actually got out and done something practical to support Remain?

John_N

TwistedFireStopper said:

SeanT said:

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.

It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.

Say there's a truce and the west gets the hell out of Muslim countries. Just say that happens. Then why would the death cult stay as strong as it is now in Europe?

MaxPB

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SeanT said:

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Sadly we have to end all faith schools. Only because our laws would not allow discrimination against Islam. This is the price we have to pay for allowing 2million+ muslims to live in the country. We should also consider a 10+ year ban on new religous buildings.

Rubbish. The issue is that Islam has proven time and again it cannot be trusted not to light a fire if we give them matches. I went to a CoE school and had a very traditional education, lumping schools like mine in with the Islamic madrassas in the Midlands and North is wrong. We don't punish all children because one of them misbehaves.

Entirely right. Let's face the fucking truth. The problem is ISLAM. So we close Muslim schools. There. Done. Everything else is specious cant.

SeanT - Yes but we probably have to end all religous schools, the price of our freedom and liberty may be a secular society.

Why? I went to a CoE school, it is one of the best in the country, why should that school be closed or the link to the church ended? It nurtures some of the best talent in London and kids get a thorough education and a good moral grounding from the church, though I didn't really bother listening to the bible readings so much.

AndrewD

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting

My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.

So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.

I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.

If only Leave could organise themselves.

Don't get me started.

The small consolation is that we know we can win if they get organised for the next referendum.

Sean_F

philiph said:

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Slaughter of animals should be non negotiable. You either do it in the way prescribed or not at all.

Import of meat from animals killed to religious specification should also be banned.

You can not have welfare for some and not others. All animals are equal.

I favour pro-am celebrity badger baiting.

TheScreamingEagles

DaemonBarber said:

Massively off topic.

First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review

See it in less than 48 hours time.

Big_G_NorthWales

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Speedy said:

The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.

Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?

The televised debates

DaemonBarber

John_N said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

SeanT said:

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.

It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.

Say there's a truce and the west gets the hell out of Muslim countries. Just say that happens. Then why would the death cult stay as strong as it is now in Europe?

Yes.

TCPoliticalBetting

SouthamObserver said:

Leave has all the passion and commitment. It's hard to see how Dave gets enough Remainers to the polling booths on 23rd June.

It is the Labour voting wwc that I believe are the key. The Mrs Duffy types that is in my pic. Why would they follow the Labour line and vote for more immigration? I believe they are going to either abstain or vote LEAVE in their droves. Labour have almost no figureheads filling the media trying to Get Out the Vote. Alan Johnson is a part time bystander.

AndrewD

John_N said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

SeanT said:

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.

It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.

Say there's a truce and the west gets the hell out of Muslim countries. Just say that happens. Then why would the death cult stay as strong as it is now in Europe?

Because they will find a reason to be outraged over anything: cartoons of Mohammed, criticism of Islam, the failure of Muslim youths to get jobs. We can not appease these people.

Casino_Royale

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting

My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.

So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.

I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.

If only Leave could organise themselves.

I know we've had Leavers bemoaning the lack of organisation, but how many people on here have actually got out and done something practical to support Remain?

I had an email from Vote Leave today complaining about the BSE leaflets that have been issued, and we've all received, and containing rebuttals to each one.

Was there any mention of any forthcoming leaflet from them, with their arguments on it?

No siree. No. Nothing at all. Nada.

DaemonBarber

TheScreamingEagles said:

DaemonBarber said:

Massively off topic.

First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review

See it in less than 48 hours time.

Squeeeeeee

TwistedFireStopper

John_N said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

SeanT said:

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.

It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.

Say there's a truce and the west gets the hell out of Muslim countries. Just say that happens. Then why would the death cult stay as strong as it is now in Europe?

Because they're on a roll. They hate us, want to destroy us, and all dream of Dabiq. Maybe?

MaxPB

TwistedFireStopper said:

SeanT said:

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.

It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.

No it wouldn't actually. The measures are specifically aimed at conservative or radical followers. Moderates wouldn't get caught up in English only services with no translators, or needing to pass an English test to get benefits, or not being able to send their children to Madrassas. They are already integrated, there are enough measures that the government could take which would discourage extremism without making life difficult for Muslims who have already integrated.

TCPoliticalBetting

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Speedy said:

The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.

Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?

The televised debates

Clegg was thoroughly beaten by Farage in 2014 over the EU.

Qn: How do you see the EU Mr Clegg in 10 years time?
Ans: Much the same.
Audience reaction = wtf and LDs driven down to 1 MEP.

Wanderer

SeanT said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.

But it will happen in the end. In the most grotesque way.

Because we are democracies. Already with Muslim populations at 5-10% we see the hard right close to taking over major European countries, e.g. France. If Muslim populations hit 15-20% then the remaining native majority will elect EXTREME rightwing governments, way beyond the FN, who will expel the Muslims.

It's Darwinian. The host expels the virus, the tumour, the invader.

This is precisely why we have to tackle Islam now. If we don't, we face a far right Europe.

I think that probably is the future tbh.

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

philiph said:

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Slaughter of animals should be non negotiable. You either do it in the way prescribed or not at all.

Import of meat from animals killed to religious specification should also be banned.

You can not have welfare for some and not others. All animals are equal.

I favour pro-am celebrity badger baiting.

You crack me up.

Speedy

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Speedy said:

The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.

Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?

Well a depression in the economy would terminate the Tories from government in the next GE, so if you are a Tory Remainer pick your poison.

As I mentioned yesterday, it's nuts to sacrifice victory in the GE in order to win the EU referendum.

Casino_Royale

DaemonBarber said:

Massively off topic.

First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review

More quoting of the pure poetry that is the script of The Untouchables.

IT IS SPREADING.

Philip_Thompson

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting

My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.

So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.

I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.

If only Leave could organise themselves.

Don't get me started.

I'm starting to think the lack of a single unified Leave campaign is a masterstroke.

I am incredibly put off by Farage/UKIP/Leave.EU/GrassrootsOut/immigration talk etc and was expecting to vote Remain in response to that.
I have been won over by Michael Gove, Dan Hannan and Vote Leave.

However other people will think otherwise and be put off by the likes of Gove and Hannan but like what Leave.EU are selling. The reality is that there are two different potential futures for us Leaving and they are mutually incompatible. Leave.EU represents the "leave and control our migration" wing of Leave, Vote Leave represents the "leave but we're open to the EEA and thus keeping free movement" wing of Leave.

If we leave, democracy will sort out which route we end up taking, but it will be up to us to decide.

My biggest reason I'm not 100% committed to Leave yet is my fear that Leave.EU becomes the official campaign, Vote Leave withers away and this becomes (like I'd feared for years) a proxy referendum on immigration. So far that hasn't happened, which to me is a good thing. Those bothered by immigration can vote accordingly but its not restricted to just them.

philiph

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Speedy said:

The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.

Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?

Doubt we will have 2 consecutive qtrs of negative growth between now and June, which is a recession. A shortage of time.

A depression between now and 23rd June? I wouldn't bet the house on that either.

RoyalBlue

John_N said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

SeanT said:

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.

It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.

Say there's a truce and the west gets the hell out of Muslim countries. Just say that happens. Then why would the death cult stay as strong as it is now in Europe?

Because only they follow the true Word of God and they have a sacred duty to win the world for Him.

I'm sick and tired of atheists not taking religion seriously because they don't find it personally convincing. It's almost as bad as the lazy and totally
false assumption that most religions are more exotic varieties of the CofE.

Big_G_NorthWales

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Speedy said:

The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.

Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?

The televised debates

Clegg was thoroughly beaten by Farage in 2014 over the EU.

Qn: How do you see the EU Mr Clegg in 10 years time?
Ans: Much the same.
Audience reaction = wtf and LDs driven down to 1 MEP.

It wont be Clegg v Farage - The most important one for remain will be David Cameron's question time style event.

TheScreamingEagles

DaemonBarber said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DaemonBarber said:

Massively off topic.

First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review

See it in less than 48 hours time.

Squeeeeeee

My friend has already seen it.

He thought it was ok without brilliant.

Said Wonder Woman/Gal Godot is the best thing in it.

Is going to be as divisive as Man of Steel.

Speedy

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Speedy said:

The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.

Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?

The televised debates

That's a strong area for Leave, I have not forgotten what happened the last time in the Euro elections.

John_N

AndrewD said:

John_N said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

SeanT said:

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.

It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.

Say there's a truce and the west gets the hell out of Muslim countries. Just say that happens. Then why would the death cult stay as strong as it is now in Europe?

Because they will find a reason to be outraged over anything: cartoons of Mohammed, criticism of Islam, the failure of Muslim youths to get jobs. We can not appease these people.

Sure, some Muslim men have got minds like Hell's Angels: "we'll kick your head in if you insult our colours". If they knew how to respect women properly, their mothers and wives could nurture some sense in them.

But I still think the bombing shit out of Syria and Iraq helps with the death cult's recruitment.

I agree there is a problem. How about cantonisation?

TCPoliticalBetting

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting

My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.

So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.

I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.

If only Leave could organise themselves.

I know we've had Leavers bemoaning the lack of organisation, but how many people on here have actually got out and done something practical to support Remain?

The PB establishment have written numerous articles for REMAIN and against LEAVE. Does that count?
Innocent face thing.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

DaemonBarber said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DaemonBarber said:

Massively off topic.

First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review

See it in less than 48 hours time.

Squeeeeeee

Is going to be as divisive as Man of Steel.

What? Sajid Javid?

Charles

Casino_Royale said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting

My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.

So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.

I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.

If only Leave could organise themselves.

I know we've had Leavers bemoaning the lack of organisation, but how many people on here have actually got out and done something practical to support Remain?

I had an email from Vote Leave today complaining about the BSE leaflets that have been issued, and we've all received, and containing rebuttals to each one.

Was there any mention of any forthcoming leaflet from them, with their arguments on it?

No siree. No. Nothing at all. Nada.

Isn't Peter Hargreaves sending something aroynd?

By until the decision on which is the official campaign is made there's not much money and no free post. So it's prohibitive. I wonder who designed the rules in such a way that it favoured remain so much?

Big_G_NorthWales

Speedy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Speedy said:

The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.

Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?

The televised debates

That's a strong area for Leave, I have not forgotten what happened the last time in the Euro elections.

Depends who they have - Farage and Galloway would be a disaster

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

DaemonBarber said:

Massively off topic.

First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review

More quoting of the pure poetry that is the script of The Untouchables.

IT IS SPREADING.

I started it on PB last year. Same quotes.

John_N

(deleted)

blackburn63

I see the abolitionists are out in force, how about we all live by the same rules, laws, call it what you like.

Gay marriage? Yep, for anyone who wants it.
Arranged marriage? Not for anybody who doesn't want it.
FGM? Any prosecutions lately?
Honour killings? Its called murder.

Let's stop appeasing people with silly views about sex, marriage and homosexuality and live our lives. Have a look at the news if you fancy the alternative.

Speedy

TheScreamingEagles said:

DaemonBarber said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DaemonBarber said:

Massively off topic.

First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review

See it in less than 48 hours time.

Squeeeeeee

My friend has already seen it.

He thought it was ok without brilliant.

Said Wonder Woman/Gal Godot is the best thing in it.

Is going to be as divisive as Man of Steel.

Since they have given up to any pretense of imagination in the movie business, why don't they make a Star Wars vs Star Trek movie ?

RoyalBlue

Casino_Royale said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting

My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.

So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.

I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.

If only Leave could organise themselves.

I know we've had Leavers bemoaning the lack of organisation, but how many people on here have actually got out and done something practical to support Remain?

I had an email from Vote Leave today complaining about the BSE leaflets that have been issued, and we've all received, and containing rebuttals to each one.

Was there any mention of any forthcoming leaflet from them, with their arguments on it?

No siree. No. Nothing at all. Nada.

I have had nothing from Remain so far, and it's not like I live in Clacton.

Philip_Thompson

SeanT said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

SeanT said:

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.

It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.

But it will happen in the end. In the most grotesque way.

Because we are democracies. Already with Muslim populations at 5-10% we see the hard right close to taking over major European countries, e.g. France. If Muslim populations hit 15-20% then the remaining native majority will elect EXTREME rightwing governments, way beyond the FN, who will expel the Muslims.

It's Darwinian. The host expels the virus, the tumour, the invader.

This is precisely why we have to tackle Islam now. If we don't, we face a far right Europe.

Or the host absorbs that which it has taken in, which is also Darwinian.

DaemonBarber

MaxPB said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

SeanT said:

AndrewD said:

MaxPB said:

runnymede said:

'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'

Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.

Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.

I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.

Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.

It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.

No it wouldn't actually. The measures are specifically aimed at conservative or radical followers. Moderates wouldn't get caught up in English only services with no translators, or needing to pass an English test to get benefits, or not being able to send their children to Madrassas. They are already integrated, there are enough measures that the government could take which would discourage extremism without making life difficult for Muslims who have already integrated.

How the hell are you going to stop people from sending kids to a madrassa without you also banning Sunday School? English only services with no translators? Good luck running a police or court service. Depending on the English test for benefits you could end up trapping native peoples of lower intelegence too!

These are not easy problems otherwise we would already see some solutions.

HYUFD

Casino_Royale said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting

My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.

So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.

I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.

If only Leave could organise themselves.

I know we've had Leavers bemoaning the lack of organisation, but how many people on here have actually got out and done something practical to support Remain?

I had an email from Vote Leave today complaining about the BSE leaflets that have been issued, and we've all received, and containing rebuttals to each one.

Was there any mention of any forthcoming leaflet from them, with their arguments on it?

No siree. No. Nothing at all. Nada.

Indeed, I have had two leaflets now from Remain nothing From Leave, Remain needs a better ground game to get its voters out and so far it has it

Wanderer

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Speedy said:

The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.

Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?

I guess one possibility is domestic political chaos. You would assume that Cameron being ousted prior to the referendum would be bad for Remain but it's possible the electorate wouldn't vote to Leave the EU at a moment when the country was effectively leaderless. (I don't suppose Cameron would favour this strategy for Remain.)

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DaemonBarber said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DaemonBarber said:

Massively off topic.

First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review

See it in less than 48 hours time.

Squeeeeeee

Is going to be as divisive as Man of Steel.

What? Sajid Javid?

Batman v Superman: The Dawn of Justice

Speedy

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Speedy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Speedy said:

The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.

Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?

The televised debates

That's a strong area for Leave, I have not forgotten what happened the last time in the Euro elections.

Depends who they have - Farage and Galloway would be a disaster

But Farage won the 2014 Euro debates.

ThreeQuidder

tpfkar said:

It does seem to me that remain are in trouble; there's a lack of passion, having to argue for EU membership makes it much harder to point out some obvious flaws, and robust economic analysis of how much economic damage would be done by leaving is either ignored or seen as worth it.

If it's high turnout, remain should be fine, if not leave could easily do it.

I thought Mike's piece earlier was spot on - if there's a political angle to today though, it's that the biggest challenges we face - immigration, terrorism, climate change, tax avoidance, air pollution - don't respect national borders. The days when we could just sort ourselves out and leave other countries to do likewise without impacting us are long gone. Glad to see those being too partisan get called out for it today.

They don't respect continental borders either.

MP_SE

Charles said:

Casino_Royale said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting

My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.

So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.

I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.

If only Leave could organise themselves.

I know we've had Leavers bemoaning the lack of organisation, but how many people on here have actually got out and done something practical to support Remain?

I had an email from Vote Leave today complaining about the BSE leaflets that have been issued, and we've all received, and containing rebuttals to each one.

Was there any mention of any forthcoming leaflet from them, with their arguments on it?

No siree. No. Nothing at all. Nada.

Isn't Peter Hargreaves sending something aroynd?

By until the decision on which is the official campaign is made there's not much money and no free post. So it's prohibitive. I wonder who designed the rules in such a way that it favoured remain so much?

I believe Peter Hargreaves will be sending a letter to 15 million homes (2/3 of all homes in UK). Although he is backing Grassroots Out/Leave.EU.

Big_G_NorthWales

Speedy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Speedy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Speedy said:

The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.

Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?

The televised debates

That's a strong area for Leave, I have not forgotten what happened the last time in the Euro elections.

Depends who they have - Farage and Galloway would be a disaster

But Farage won the 2014 Euro debates.

No one was listening

Wanderer

blackburn63 said:

I see the abolitionists are out in force, how about we all live by the same rules, laws, call it what you like.

Gay marriage? Yep, for anyone who wants it.
Arranged marriage? Not for anybody who doesn't want it.
FGM? Any prosecutions lately?
Honour killings? Its called murder.

Let's stop appeasing people with silly views about sex, marriage and homosexuality and live our lives. Have a look at the news if you fancy the alternative.

Abolitionists?

Philip_Thompson

Speedy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Speedy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Speedy said:

The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.

Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?

The televised debates

That's a strong area for Leave, I have not forgotten what happened the last time in the Euro elections.

Depends who they have - Farage and Galloway would be a disaster

But Farage won the 2014 Euro debates.

Against the most hated leader in British politics.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

DaemonBarber said:

Massively off topic.

First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review

More quoting of the pure poetry that is the script of The Untouchables.

IT IS SPREADING.

I started it on PB last year. Same quotes.

I used it in my email to Matthew Elliot.

He hasn't replied.

Perhaps he didn't like it.

Big_G_NorthWales

Wanderer said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Speedy said:

The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.

Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?

I guess one possibility is domestic political chaos. You would assume that Cameron being ousted prior to the referendum would be bad for Remain but it's possible the electorate wouldn't vote to Leave the EU at a moment when the country was effectively leaderless. (I don't suppose Cameron would favour this strategy for Remain.)

After today's unity performance by the conservatives David Cameron is going nowhere

TwistedFireStopper

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DaemonBarber said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DaemonBarber said:

Massively off topic.

First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review

See it in less than 48 hours time.

Squeeeeeee

My friend has already seen it.

He thought it was ok without brilliant.

Said Wonder Woman/Gal Godot is the best thing in it.

Is going to be as divisive as Man of Steel.

Since they have given up to any pretense of imagination in the movie business, why don't they make a Star Wars vs Star Trek movie ?

My thoughts exactly. I have colleagues, grown men, who openly talk about all this DC/Marvel shite. I actually watched some crappy thing, with a talking badger and Vin Diesel as a tree. I still have no idea whether is was a psychotic episode bought on by too much whisky, or if it was actually a genuine film.

HYUFD

DaemonBarber said:

Massively off topic.

First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review

Walked through Leicester Square tonight which was packed for the premiere but seems a bit of a cashcow movie to me and Ben Affleck will find it hard to fill Christian Bale's shoes

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DaemonBarber said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DaemonBarber said:

Massively off topic.

First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review

See it in less than 48 hours time.

Squeeeeeee

Is going to be as divisive as Man of Steel.

What? Sajid Javid?

Batman v Superman: The Dawn of Justice

Yup, know that. Very weak attempt at a pun by me: http://www.cityam.com/234298/steel-crisis-business-secretary-sajid-javid-rules-out-higher-tariffs-for-chinese-steel

Philip_Thompson

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DaemonBarber said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DaemonBarber said:

Massively off topic.

First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review

See it in less than 48 hours time.

Squeeeeeee

My friend has already seen it.

He thought it was ok without brilliant.

Said Wonder Woman/Gal Godot is the best thing in it.

Is going to be as divisive as Man of Steel.

Since they have given up to any pretense of imagination in the movie business, why don't they make a Star Wars vs Star Trek movie ?

Batman and Superman are in the same universe to be fair.

HYUFD

McDonnell skewered Osborne far more effectively than Corbyn in the House today, could he be Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS? Howard of course was also Shadow Chancellor

Wanderer

Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

Casino_Royale

Charles said:

Casino_Royale said:

RoyalBlue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting

My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.

So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.

I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.

If only Leave could organise themselves.

I know we've had Leavers bemoaning the lack of organisation, but how many people on here have actually got out and done something practical to support Remain?

I had an email from Vote Leave today complaining about the BSE leaflets that have been issued, and we've all received, and containing rebuttals to each one.

Was there any mention of any forthcoming leaflet from them, with their arguments on it?

No siree. No. Nothing at all. Nada.

Isn't Peter Hargreaves sending something aroynd?

By until the decision on which is the official campaign is made there's not much money and no free post. So it's prohibitive. I wonder who designed the rules in such a way that it favoured remain so much?

In that case they need to tell us, and organise us accordingly using their network. There are plenty of volunteers.

I've also volunteered to my "local area" organiser, but also haven't heard a pip.

I currently planning to order a big box of leaflets and unilaterally carpet bomb my (rather large) village on my own.

My wife thinks I need help.