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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With sentiment edging away from REMAIN it’s been the bigges

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  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    On immigration/Brexit:

    It is far and away the main topic to be discussed in relation to Brexit that I have come across. Mostly garbage spoken on the subject though, such as how it would keep out those in the Calais camp.

    My sense, right now, right this moment, is that this could win it for LEAVE, however

    Hence the sense of panic in the REMAIN camp
    Yeah, but your opinion is changed every day!
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    From The Times

    The two biggest figures in British law enforcement warn today that the safety of the nation and fight against crime would be put at risk by leaving the European Union.

    Theresa May, the home secretary, told The Times that essential intelligence from European partners, catching criminals and extraditing suspects would be under threat if Britain left.....

    .....Their comments were made shortly before the Brussels atrocities, which came four months after the Paris attacks that killed 130.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4719456.ece

    Lol. Just lol.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,595
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    On immigration/Brexit:

    It is far and away the main topic to be discussed in relation to Brexit that I have come across. Mostly garbage spoken on the subject though, such as how it would keep out those in the Calais camp.

    My sense, right now, right this moment, is that this could win it for LEAVE, however

    Hence the sense of panic in the REMAIN camp
    Yeah, but your opinion is changed every day!
    Not on this, I stand by my several-months-old prediction. A fairly narrow REMAIN win - 56-44. I just think the odds on a LEAVE upset have risen. And they have.
    56-44 is quite a big gap for a binary choice. I currently suspect a much narrower result, with differential turnout being key factor.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,464
    MP_SE said:

    HYUFD said:

    MP_SE said:

    Wanderer said:

    Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.

    Most will not even notice it, but about 30-40% will look at if for a few seconds before binning it (noting briefly some sort of effort and presence) and about 10% will skim-read, and 5% properly read it.

    If only a fifth of those who skim/properly read act differently, that's 20 extra votes for every 1 x 1,000 leaflet drop.
    That is potentially 300,000 extra votes.
    In what looks like a tight race those could be crucial. Leave do not want to end up like Yes holding mass meetings and winning the Twitter war while their opponents do the hard grind of winning swing voters
    Indeed. Farage's and his town hall meetings in Thanet South being another good example.
    Yes exactly I still think it will be close though, Remain 52 Leave 48 is my prediction
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    RoyalBlue said:

    People who answer the door in their dressing gowns are invariably socialists. There must be a moral somewhere in there...

    Say that ain't true..... Oh?

    http://tinyurl.com/gpcky5u
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'The two biggest figures in British law enforcement warn today that the safety of the nation and fight against crime would be put at risk by leaving the European Union.

    Theresa May, the home secretary, told The Times that essential intelligence from European partners, catching criminals and extraditing suspects would be under threat if Britain left.....

    .....Their comments were made shortly before the Brussels atrocities, which came four months after the Paris attacks that killed 130.'


    Is there going to be a point at which one of these old hams looks at the lines they have been given and says 'oh really, I can't read this!'
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    On immigration/Brexit:

    It is far and away the main topic to be discussed in relation to Brexit that I have come across. Mostly garbage spoken on the subject though, such as how it would keep out those in the Calais camp.

    My sense, right now, right this moment, is that this could win it for LEAVE, however

    Hence the sense of panic in the REMAIN camp
    Yeah, but your opinion is changed every day!
    Not on this, I stand by my several-months-old prediction. A fairly narrow REMAIN win - 56-44. I just think the odds on a LEAVE upset have risen. And they have.
    56-44 is quite a big gap for a binary choice. I currently suspect a much narrower result, with differential turnout being key factor.
    We shall find out on Tuesday, when Jacks ARSE delivers its first projection.
  • If Corbyn were a patch on Nixon then Corbynites might be in with a chance.
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Speedy

    Pretty daft comment. The SNP sensibly are reversing the uncalled for top rate tax cut via allowances and generating lots of cash and are avoiding putting up the top rate which would raise no more cash. Pretty good politics and economics.

    Meanwhile Labour are in favour of the tax cut south of the border but against it not of the border while the Tories are proposing no change at all - leave it all to George's!

    The NATS dominate the centre left ground and will win this coming election by a street.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    From The Times

    The two biggest figures in British law enforcement warn today that the safety of the nation and fight against crime would be put at risk by leaving the European Union.

    Theresa May, the home secretary, told The Times that essential intelligence from European partners, catching criminals and extraditing suspects would be under threat if Britain left.....

    .....Their comments were made shortly before the Brussels atrocities, which came four months after the Paris attacks that killed 130.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4719456.ece

    Sharing? Well to a point.....Was it not said today that Belgium has to come to us for intelligence.

    Only saying
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,595

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    On immigration/Brexit:

    It is far and away the main topic to be discussed in relation to Brexit that I have come across. Mostly garbage spoken on the subject though, such as how it would keep out those in the Calais camp.

    My sense, right now, right this moment, is that this could win it for LEAVE, however

    Hence the sense of panic in the REMAIN camp
    Yeah, but your opinion is changed every day!
    Not on this, I stand by my several-months-old prediction. A fairly narrow REMAIN win - 56-44. I just think the odds on a LEAVE upset have risen. And they have.
    56-44 is quite a big gap for a binary choice. I currently suspect a much narrower result, with differential turnout being key factor.
    We shall find out on Tuesday, when Jacks ARSE delivers its first projection.
    I am sure Jack gets his ARSE direct from GCHQ. Apparently he has the next two general election results already. Apparently a surprising comeback is lined up for the second general election of 2018.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,509
    Moses_ said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    People who answer the door in their dressing gowns are invariably socialists. There must be a moral somewhere in there...

    Say that ain't true..... Oh?

    http://tinyurl.com/gpcky5u
    Oliver Letwin, secret socialist?

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/1742011.stm
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2016
    Arizona polls close in two hours. A Trump win would take him above 50% of delegates awarded so far (excluding super-delegates).
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    On immigration/Brexit:

    It is far and away the main topic to be discussed in relation to Brexit that I have come across. Mostly garbage spoken on the subject though, such as how it would keep out those in the Calais camp.

    My sense, right now, right this moment, is that this could win it for LEAVE, however

    Hence the sense of panic in the REMAIN camp
    Yeah, but your opinion is changed every day!
    Not on this, I stand by my several-months-old prediction. A fairly narrow REMAIN win - 56-44. I just think the odds on a LEAVE upset have risen. And they have.
    56-44 is quite a big gap for a binary choice. I currently suspect a much narrower result, with differential turnout being key factor.
    We shall find out on Tuesday, when Jacks ARSE delivers its first projection.
    I am sure Jack gets his ARSE direct from GCHQ. Apparently he has the next two general election results already. Apparently a surprising comeback is lined up for the second general election of 2018.
    Those who mock the ARSE are likely to wind up in brown trousers as the results follow through.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Main reason why the Republican party is doomed no matter what they do.

    N.Carolina PPP poll:

    Unfavourability among 2012 own party voters:

    Trump 33%
    Cruz 34%
    Kasich 32%

    Hillary 20%

    Which of course leads to:

    Trump 42
    Hillary 44

    Cruz 42
    Hillary 45

    Trump 34
    Hillary 38
    Conservative Independent 18

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_32216.pdf

    There is no chance a political party as divided as the republicans will survive in the long term.
    They are clearly split in 3 irreconcilable factions, and if any single faction bolts they all lose.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    Arizona polls close in two hours. A Trump win would take him above 50% of delegates awarded so far (excluding super-delegates).

    Hehe, you're right! Although Utah may just dip him below that important threshold again...
  • Timing is great for PMQs. One hell of a dead cat for Dave to use.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    The interesting part is that Trump gets 42 in N.Carolina, 36 in Utah and 36 in New York in the opinion polls.

    Support and rejection for Trump is almost uniform throughout america.

    He will do much better than a classic republican in areas were republicans normally lose and much worse in areas where republicans normally win.
    If the republican party was united behind him he would have had a chance to win the GE, however it is badly divided so there is no chance.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Arizona polls close in two hours. A Trump win would take him above 50% of delegates awarded so far (excluding super-delegates).

    Bad news, under Arizona law it is illegal to publish election results until one hour after polling closes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,406
    edited March 2016
    Speedy said:

    If the republican party was united behind him he would have had a chance to win the GE, however it is badly divided so there is no chance.

    It's a bit early to be writing retrospectives. The Republican party will fall into line behind him in the end. By November they'll be pretending they never had a problem with him in the first place.
    Speedy said:

    Bad news, under Arizona law it is illegal to publish election results until one hour after polling closes.

    Not even the usual tease exit polls?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    SeanT said:

    Usual Newsnight BBC cr*p talking about the Brussels murders without blaming islam. Have now a young muslim blaming lack of work, under qualified, over qualified etc etc..
    On and on a 30 minute exercise in burying heads in the sand.

    Just watched that. Blaming "alienation" of Muslims in.... Belgium. One of the richest, most tolerant, most liberal and undemanding of states on earth. And very generous with welfare.

    Let's face it, fucking ugly whining bearded Muslims will exploit this European cowardice until we stand up and say STOP. We have bent over backwards, and you've bombed our airports, shops, subways.

    And still we tolerate your organised racist gang rape, your FGM, cousin marriage, forced marriage, misogyny, burqas, and overt disgust at our culture. UGH.

    ENOUGH. We have to stand up and say we find modern Islam disgusting and repulsive. We want it to GO. To GO AWAY. We want Muslims to LEAVE Europe, not ENTER. And they can LEAVE until they can prove that they are capable of being civilised and liberal human beings, which doesn't look likely any time soon.
    All fine and dandy. But the wrong target.

    The true targets are the traitorous politicians who have allowed it, indeed connived for it, to come to pass. Those who have tried to destroy our own culture, and elevate ALIEN, INIMICAL and BACKWARD cultures to positions of "equality" in our own land, while stifling dissent through "hatespeech" laws, etc.

    Until you recognize that, you're just pissing in the wind...
    Besides, it's all far, far too late.

    Just look out of your window. You're already an alien in your own capital city, the base of the propaganda network and traitorous political class that daily, gleefully, grinds you to dust...

    Move abroad, or far north, if you wish to escape the deadly virus.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    People who answer the door in their dressing gowns are invariably socialists. There must be a moral somewhere in there...

    Say that ain't true..... Oh?

    http://tinyurl.com/gpcky5u
    Oliver Letwin, secret socialist?

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/1742011.stm
    Ahhh .....maybe so or maybes not?

    The fragrant Cherie is a QC. On the other hand Oliver is a DS*. Apples and pears then really


    * Dipstick.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,708
    edited March 2016
    You know we have had all these primaries from US territories...I didn't realise they don't get a vote in the actual election and that Puerto Rico send a representative to the congress but isn't allowed to to vote on anything.

    Apparently the decision dates back over 100 years where it was decided that they were "alien races" who couldn't understand "Anglo Saxon principles"....
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    SeanT said:

    Usual Newsnight BBC cr*p talking about the Brussels murders without blaming islam. Have now a young muslim blaming lack of work, under qualified, over qualified etc etc..
    On and on a 30 minute exercise in burying heads in the sand.

    Just watched that. Blaming "alienation" of Muslims in.... Belgium. One of the richest, most tolerant, most liberal and undemanding of states on earth. And very generous with welfare.

    Let's face it, fucking ugly whining bearded Muslims will exploit this European cowardice until we stand up and say STOP. We have bent over backwards, and you've bombed our airports, shops, subways.

    And still we tolerate your organised racist gang rape, your FGM, cousin marriage, forced marriage, misogyny, burqas, and overt disgust at our culture. UGH.

    ENOUGH. We have to stand up and say we find modern Islam disgusting and repulsive. We want it to GO. To GO AWAY. We want Muslims to LEAVE Europe, not ENTER. And they can LEAVE until they can prove that they are capable of being civilised and liberal human beings, which doesn't look likely any time soon.
    All fine and dandy. But the wrong target.

    The true targets are the traitorous politicians who have allowed it, indeed connived for it, to come to pass. Those who have tried to destroy our own culture, and elevate ALIEN, INIMICAL and BACKWARD cultures to positions of "equality" in our own land, while stifling dissent through "hatespeech" laws, etc.

    Until you recognize that, you're just pissing in the wind...
    Besides, it's all far, far too late.

    Just look out of your window. You're already an alien in your own capital city, the base of the propaganda network and traitorous political class that daily, gleefully, grinds you to dust...

    Move abroad, or far north, if you wish to escape the deadly virus.
    Dropped by Aston (Birmingham) the other week and afterwards headed back to M5 south.
    West Bromwich was a bit of an eye opener.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Roy Hatterley's memoirs - MP for Sparkbrooke - when constituents were worried about immigrartion I had to disemble - when Sparkbrooke became majority immigrant I could relax.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Moses_ said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    SeanT said:

    Usual Newsnight BBC cr*p talking about the Brussels murders without blaming islam. Have now a young muslim blaming lack of work, under qualified, over qualified etc etc..
    On and on a 30 minute exercise in burying heads in the sand.

    Just watched that. Blaming "alienation" of Muslims in.... Belgium. One of the richest, most tolerant, most liberal and undemanding of states on earth. And very generous with welfare.

    Let's face it, fucking ugly whining bearded Muslims will exploit this European cowardice until we stand up and say STOP. We have bent over backwards, and you've bombed our airports, shops, subways.

    And still we tolerate your organised racist gang rape, your FGM, cousin marriage, forced marriage, misogyny, burqas, and overt disgust at our culture. UGH.

    ENOUGH. We have to stand up and say we find modern Islam disgusting and repulsive. We want it to GO. To GO AWAY. We want Muslims to LEAVE Europe, not ENTER. And they can LEAVE until they can prove that they are capable of being civilised and liberal human beings, which doesn't look likely any time soon.
    All fine and dandy. But the wrong target.

    The true targets are the traitorous politicians who have allowed it, indeed connived for it, to come to pass. Those who have tried to destroy our own culture, and elevate ALIEN, INIMICAL and BACKWARD cultures to positions of "equality" in our own land, while stifling dissent through "hatespeech" laws, etc.

    Until you recognize that, you're just pissing in the wind...
    Besides, it's all far, far too late.

    Just look out of your window. You're already an alien in your own capital city, the base of the propaganda network and traitorous political class that daily, gleefully, grinds you to dust...

    Move abroad, or far north, if you wish to escape the deadly virus.
    Dropped by Aston (Birmingham) the other week and afterwards headed back to M5 south.
    West Bromwich was a bit of an eye opener.
    Try the far north and north west (avoiding certain obvious written-off places). Eye-opening in a far more uplifting and hopeful way...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,708
    Moses_ said:
    Guardian will be offended by that I am sure...
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    There is nothing about English culture worth preserving.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    edited March 2016
    The great advantage of mass immigration was that the English were too confortable, immigration has dragged them into the real world (c Nick Palmer).
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    I could have been a representative for any country in the EU, I have no particular interest in the UK (c Nick Palmer)
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    I would like to retire to Norway or Sweden, I wonder if my views are popular there (c Nick Palmer)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    PAW said:

    There is nothing about English culture worth preserving.

    There was little to begin with. The English were too single-minded and focussed on developing abstract, higher-order structures like the nation-state, law, education, democracy, philosophy to bother with such sentimentality...
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    The big weakness of the English has been tolerance of the enemies within.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    PAW said:

    The big weakness of the English has been tolerance of the enemies within.

    The English are mentioned in the Bible: "The meek shall inherit the Earth."

    Then they'll give it up again, and apologize for their crime, and invite the world to come in and dance on their grave...
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    And Euro2016 Chiefs in a definite dilemma. Understandably they must be thinking of Paris attempt.

    "With the tournament edging closer, UEFA executive committee vice-president Giancarlo Abete has admitted the best option could be to play the matches behind closed doors."

    .http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-3505328/Euro-2016-matches-played-closed-doors-t-exclude-terrorism-says-UEFA-chief-following-Brussels-attacks.html


    As would be expected other thoughts seem already be turning to scanning people and luggage outside the terminal. Certainly an obvious response but with the downside you have simply kicked the problem 100m down the road into a more open area. Within car bomb range or aerial attack as well ( think downing st missile and I recollect Heathrow as well)

    What to do? Solutions Not easy either or any way but this is how they win.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,680

    You know we have had all these primaries from US territories...I didn't realise they don't get a vote in the actual election and that Puerto Rico send a representative to the congress but isn't allowed to to vote on anything.

    Apparently the decision dates back over 100 years where it was decided that they were "alien races" who couldn't understand "Anglo Saxon principles"....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,680
    PAW said:

    There is nothing about English culture worth preserving.

    The English language?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,680

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    On immigration/Brexit:

    It is far and away the main topic to be discussed in relation to Brexit that I have come across. Mostly garbage spoken on the subject though, such as how it would keep out those in the Calais camp.

    My sense, right now, right this moment, is that this could win it for LEAVE, however

    Hence the sense of panic in the REMAIN camp
    Yeah, but your opinion is changed every day!
    Not on this, I stand by my several-months-old prediction. A fairly narrow REMAIN win - 56-44. I just think the odds on a LEAVE upset have risen. And they have.
    56-44 is quite a big gap for a binary choice. I currently suspect a much narrower result, with differential turnout being key factor.
    We shall find out on Tuesday, when Jacks ARSE delivers its first projection.
    I am sure Jack gets his ARSE direct from GCHQ. Apparently he has the next two general election results already. Apparently a surprising comeback is lined up for the second general election of 2018.
    Those who mock the ARSE are likely to wind up in brown trousers as the results follow through.
    Those who mock ARSE will be given the ELBOW :lol:
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    RodCrosby said:

    PAW said:

    There is nothing about English culture worth preserving.

    There was little to begin with. The English were too single-minded and focussed on developing abstract, higher-order structures like the nation-state, law, education, democracy, philosophy to bother with such sentimentality...
    Odd though don't you think that wherever you go on the planet people ask if you speak a language whatever that query might be. The most obvious one is English and having travelled far and wide it's always called that and spoken widely.

    It's not called Great Britainish, UKish even , LittleEnglanderish....... Just plain old " English. " obviously there was something worth saving then :wink:

    * Even the Scots speak English and I have many more than one claim to speak queens English but perhaps I was mistaken and they were referring to Mary Queen of Scots :lol:

    MQOSWNQOE
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Wanderer said:



    Btw, I don't mean to disparage people's campaigning ardour. I'm just sceptical that leaflets are effective. Actually knocking on doors is another matter though. I would imagine that makes a huge difference and I greatly respect people that do it as it must take some balls.

    No, I've been doing it for nearly 50 years now, and the number of people who were what I'd call rude is in single figures. You should try it. Sure, you get people saying "Not interested", or "Labour? No way.", but people don't tell you to f*** off - the instinct to be reasonably polite to someone on your doorstep takes over. Often you get a pleasant short chat, even with opponents - I always remember the one who said, "I read the Mail, and what I see there makes me vote Tory. I do realise I'm getting a one-sided picture, but my life is so busy don't have time for a serious paper at the moment. I'm really sorry." The most courteous, apropos of the last thread, tend to be of Asian origin - canvassing in Leicester during the Iraq war for a pro-war white candidate against an Asian LibDem in a strongly Asian area, I have never heard so many different ways of saying that they were terribly sorry, but on this occasion, sadly...

    Ironically, my wife once tried leafleting, and in the very first house she went to, the woman pursued her down the drive, shouting "How DARE you put this trash in my letterbox!" She was not enthused by the experience and has not made a habit of it.
    Agree entirely, last year I knocked on thousands of doors, we received virtually no abuse. The British public are polite and magnanimous, if disinterested.
    Interesting to note whilst canvassing that the poorest houses with least to protect have the fiercest dogs.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,680
    edited March 2016
    Moses_ said:

    " We were taught by Nuns....... Nothing but nothing now scares us"

    Private Baldrick: You know my dad was a nun.

    Captain Blackadder: No he wasn't.

    Private Baldrick: He was too, sir. Cause whenever he was up in court and the judge asked "occupation", he'd say "none".
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    PAW said:

    There is nothing about English culture worth preserving.

    There goes Shakespeare, Austen, Dickens.....
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    PAW said:

    There is nothing about English culture worth preserving.

    The English language?
    Like minds
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited March 2016

    You know we have had all these primaries from US territories...I didn't realise they don't get a vote in the actual election and that Puerto Rico send a representative to the congress but isn't allowed to to vote on anything.

    Apparently the decision dates back over 100 years where it was decided that they were "alien races" who couldn't understand "Anglo Saxon principles"....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico
    Well that was self-evidently so, and they would have to undergo some period of normalisation and assimilation before being admitted to statehood, should that even be possible.

    To complicate matters, some had very different ideas...
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Harry_S._Truman

    [note: as in the vast majority of assassination attempts from Julius Caesar onwards, these people were not "lone nuts"]
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    PAW said:

    There is nothing about English culture worth preserving.


    I say, that's just not cricket old man.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    " We were taught by Nuns....... Nothing but nothing now scares us"

    Private Baldrick: You know my dad was a nun.

    Captain Blackadder: No he wasn't.

    Private Baldrick: He was too, sir. Cause whenever he was up in court and the judge asked "occupation", he'd say "none".
    Ha!
    That truly was a brilliant series and in my book included the most memorable ending that I can remember.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    PAW said:

    There is nothing about English culture worth preserving.

    The English language?
    The Americans have preserved it, after a fashion...
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    edited March 2016
    There is nothing about English culture worth preserving. - you know it is a quote - Jack Straw?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    RodCrosby said:

    PAW said:

    There is nothing about English culture worth preserving.

    The English language?
    The Americans have preserved it, after a fashion...
    Indeed.....

    http://www.netfunny.com/rhf/jokes/95q4/uk.html
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,406
    RodCrosby said:

    PAW said:

    There is nothing about English culture worth preserving.

    The English language?
    The Americans have preserved it, after a fashion...
    In the manner in which they preserved Ben Tre?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Any word on Arizona?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    Any word on Arizona?

    None.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    First Utah results:

    https://twitter.com/RobertRAnderso3/status/712465540334260224

    That's Cruz 55, Kasich 34, Trump 10%.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Second Utah result:

    https://twitter.com/SpencerJCox/status/712466977193730048

    And another one:

    Ryan McCoy ‏@rmccoy801 3m3 minutes ago
    Precinct SJ045 in Utah GOP Caucus in person votes (online votes reported separately)
    Trump 4
    Kasich 5
    Cruz 34

    And another one:

    Barry ‏@bearandem 5m5 minutes ago
    @AandGShow #utahcaucus Final count:Cruz 49, Trump:12, Kasich:9 Hope this was in any way interesting. I was surprised Trump got so many.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Safe to say that Cruz has won Utah and probably crossed 50% to win all delegates.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I think from all the precinct results from Utah, Cruz may take 70% of the vote.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Speedy said:

    I think from all the precinct results from Utah, Cruz may take 70% of the vote.

    Whether he gets 50% or 100%, it's still 40 delegates.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    Speedy said:

    I think from all the precinct results from Utah, Cruz may take 70% of the vote.

    Whether he gets 50% or 100%, it's still 40 delegates.
    Indeed, I think Utah is over, all delegates go to Cruz.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    CNN is terrible when it comes to debating results.

    They only have 2 outcomes, either Cruz wins both Utah and Arizona or Cruz gets bellow 50% in Utah, they don't consider the most probable one that Cruz has already got 50+ in Utah and Trump wins Arizona.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Oh great Arizona has extended voting for at least 2 hours after polling closed.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    According to CNN, the NeverTrump's continue to be idiots at campaigning, they threw all their resources in Utah where Cruz was already 40% ahead of Trump.

    I believe the NeverTrump's are a scam, like the Jeb Bush superpack.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    We got Arizona results:

    Trump 47
    Cruz 20
    Kasich 10

    http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/gop/president/arizona/

    Those are the postal votes.

    Right on my expectation, when someone has won a primary this year it's always close to the Santorum or Romney win depending on the state.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Hillary has won Arizona.

    With 41% in

    Hillary 62
    Sanders 38
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Apparently Trump is very popular with the Apache:

    Apache county.

    Trump 53%
    Cruz 19
    Kasich 6
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    So no surprises tonight.

    Cruz won Utah with more than 50%, Trump won Arizona.
    Hillary won Arizona, Sanders won Utah.

    With the exception of N.H, Vermont, Ohio, Iowa and Texas it looks like every state that Hillary wins, Trump also wins.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Great, I can go to bed with no surprises to wake up to.

    Long wait now till NY and and other north east states at the end of April.

    Time for the GOP to take a deep breath, and come together behind Trump?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Fox News projects Arizona for Trump.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Fox News is debating whether Scott Walker will win the Wisconsin primary, tells you the state of the NeverTrump's.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    CNN as usual late in projecting Arizona for Trump and Hillary.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    Great, I can go to bed with no surprises to wake up to.

    Long wait now till NY and and other north east states at the end of April.

    Time for the GOP to take a deep breath, and come together behind Trump?

    The NeverTrump's are saying they will make a last stand in Wisconsin like Santorum in 2012.

    Goodnight.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    You know we have had all these primaries from US territories...I didn't realise they don't get a vote in the actual election and that Puerto Rico send a representative to the congress but isn't allowed to to vote on anything.

    Apparently the decision dates back over 100 years where it was decided that they were "alien races" who couldn't understand "Anglo Saxon principles"....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico
    Well that was self-evidently so, and they would have to undergo some period of normalisation and assimilation before being admitted to statehood, should that even be possible.

    To complicate matters, some had very different ideas...
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Harry_S._Truman

    [note: as in the vast majority of assassination attempts from Julius Caesar onwards, these people were not "lone nuts"]
    Interesting that Officer Coffelt was the only man to lose his life in defence of a US president, and three of the only four officers ever to take a bullet were shot in the same 1950 incident (the other was in 1981 for Reagan).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,891
    How is Der Trump doing?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    AZ (87.5% in)
    Donald Trump 46.7%
    Ted Cruz 23.5%

    UT(2.7% in)
    Ted Cruz 58.8%
    John Kasich 22.9%
    Donald Trump 18.3%

    It's a big lead for Cruz, but seems hasty to call it with less than 5% in.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    edited March 2016
    Cruz up to 70% in Utah now with 27% reporting
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    RobD said:

    How is Der Trump doing?

    Won Arizona, not so good in Utah.

    As (easily) predicted.

    Kasich nowhere, obviously.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    Speedy said:

    So no surprises tonight.

    Cruz won Utah with more than 50%, Trump won Arizona.
    Hillary won Arizona, Sanders won Utah.

    With the exception of N.H, Vermont, Ohio, Iowa and Texas it looks like every state that Hillary wins, Trump also wins.

    Alaska will be a Cruz/Clinton state.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Re the thread header Leave is best priced 15/8, generally 7/4, as low as 13/8.

    I've predicted all along a narrow Leave win on a low turnout.

    Regardless of the outcome its clear that complacency has turned to panic for Remain, interesting to see their next move.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,136
    Why does Utah have such a boner for Cruz?

    Mormons?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    And do Apaches run casinos in Arizona?

    Why does Utah have such a boner for Cruz?

    Mormons?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    Hillary and Trump will be relieved when the race comes back round east and

    New York
    Connecticut
    DC
    Maryland
    Pennsylvania
    Rhode Island
    Indiana
    West Virginia

    All vote late April.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    Uncommitted WINS American Samoa with 100% !

    9 delegates to uncommitted for the GOP
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,518
    Morning all,

    Nothing from last night suggests other than Trump V Clinton this autumn. What a fascinating fight that will be.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    scotslass said:

    The NATS dominate the centre left ground and will win this coming election by a street.

    LOL

    There is little doubt the SNP will win by a street, but not remotely from the centre left.
    Steel yourself for this, but, you see, SNP policy on income tax is almost exactly the same as George Osborne’s policy on income tax before he unveiled his most recent budget. Mean-spirited people might use this awkward truth to suggest the SNP are, once again, little more than “Tartan Tories” but that is not quite fair. They are more like Tartan Reaganites.

    The only difference between SNP and Tory income tax policy is that the SNP will only increase the threshold above which income is taxed at 40% by the rate of inflation whereas the Conservatives in Westminster intend to increase it to £50,000 by 2020.
    http://capx.co/nicola-sturgeon-comes-round-to-thatchers-way-of-thinking-on-wealth-taxes/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited March 2016
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/generalboles/status/712403866881531904

    Not Red Tories (no more 50p income tax) - so if not Tartan, maybe a nice inoffensive Beige?
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Lord Howard says that Europe acts as a 'welcome sign for terrorists'. I imagine that will resonate with the public.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Why does Utah have such a boner for Cruz?

    Mormons?

    Google "Mormons Trump"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    Hillary looks to be getting over the line on 5th June to me.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    I find it very difficult to believe that the local community didn't know anything about these people. This has been an enduring thought with me over the years. The muslim community is very close knit and resists what they see as external interference but unless they improve internal scrutiny we will not stop these rough individuals/groups.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,136
    Freggles said:

    Why does Utah have such a boner for Cruz?

    Mormons?

    Google "Mormons Trump"
    Ah, that.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    I don't believe the "on line" polls, but there might currently be a slight movement towards "Leave". However, I expect a swing-back towards Remain by the eve of polling and a substantial majority for Remain.

    Remain supporters should be grateful that Corbyn pulled his punches against Cameron on Monday afternoon. Given the events of the weekend, he could have seriously damaged the public perception of Cameron and set up a narrative that the vote on 23rd June would be an excellent opportunity to punish Cam-borne. As Labour almost unanimously support Remain, he sensibly refrained from doing so - sadly from my personal perspective.

    I agree with IDS re his comments at the weekend (his interview with Marr was measured and sincere) and his views on Europe and have more respect for him than the "heir to Bliar" and his political chancellor from Tatton. The budget was a disgusting political manipulation in favour of the well-to-do and those segments of the population (ABC1s in prosperous regions) more likely to support Remain.

    As for the US, it looks likely to be Trump vs Clinton in November 2016 and I do not look forward to the outcome. I don't understand why Trump, with his stated dislike of non-Christians, went to the AIPAC convention recently, given the relatively close identity between the religious beliefs/practices of Muslims and Jews. In the light of recent events in Paris/Brussels, I wonder whether it will be Hollande vs Le Pen in France next year, with a good chance for both the USA and France to have the novelty of lady presidents.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,226
    Scott_P said:

    scotslass said:

    The NATS dominate the centre left ground and will win this coming election by a street.

    LOL

    There is little doubt the SNP will win by a street, but not remotely from the centre left.
    Steel yourself for this, but, you see, SNP policy on income tax is almost exactly the same as George Osborne’s policy on income tax before he unveiled his most recent budget. Mean-spirited people might use this awkward truth to suggest the SNP are, once again, little more than “Tartan Tories” but that is not quite fair. They are more like Tartan Reaganites.

    The only difference between SNP and Tory income tax policy is that the SNP will only increase the threshold above which income is taxed at 40% by the rate of inflation whereas the Conservatives in Westminster intend to increase it to £50,000 by 2020.
    http://capx.co/nicola-sturgeon-comes-round-to-thatchers-way-of-thinking-on-wealth-taxes/

    The sarcasm in that article is truly glorious.

    I particularly enjoyed this line;
    Since elections, even in Scotland, are still won from the centre this poses a certain difficulty for the Scottish Labour party. It has decided to respond by scurrying left in search of a higher cliff from which to jump.
    It's funny 'cos it's true.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,518
    daodao said:

    I don't believe the "on line" polls, but there might currently be a slight movement towards "Leave". However, I expect a swing-back towards Remain by the eve of polling and a substantial majority for Remain.

    Remain supporters should be grateful that Corbyn pulled his punches against Cameron on Monday afternoon. Given the events of the weekend, he could have seriously damaged the public perception of Cameron and set up a narrative that the vote on 23rd June would be an excellent opportunity to punish Cam-borne. As Labour almost unanimously support Remain, he sensibly refrained from doing so - sadly from my personal perspective.

    I agree with IDS re his comments at the weekend (his interview with Marr was measured and sincere) and his views on Europe and have more respect for him than the "heir to Bliar" and his political chancellor from Tatton. The budget was a disgusting political manipulation in favour of the well-to-do and those segments of the population (ABC1s in prosperous regions) more likely to support Remain.

    As for the US, it looks likely to be Trump vs Clinton in November 2016 and I do not look forward to the outcome. I don't understand why Trump, with his stated dislike of non-Christians, went to the AIPAC convention recently, given the relatively close identity between the religious beliefs/practices of Muslims and Jews. In the light of recent events in Paris/Brussels, I wonder whether it will be Hollande vs Le Pen in France next year, with a good chance for both the USA and France to have the novelty of lady presidents.

    I'd agree that Leave need to be well ahead by the final run-in. There will likely be a swing back as fear of change grips people at last minute.

    So far I've refrained from betting on the Referendum. I'll see where things are in a month or so.
This discussion has been closed.